2024: Future Security Council

Chair: Ethan Carr

The world in 2024 differs in several significant ways from our current one. 2024 marked the addition of another billion people on the planet, bringing the total to eight billion. The booming population growth was focused primarily in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.

Rapid population growth brought conflict along with it. Border clashes of varying intensities erupted along the India-Pakistan border, focused on the Kashmir province. Pakistan found itself at the center of immense controversy stemming from several accusations of ongoing cooperation with terrorist groups across the globe. International sanctions were levied against the country as a result. India continued to drive towards superpower status, overtaking China in population and further modernizing at an alarming rate. Even this moment India still finds itself halted by ongoing border clashes with Pakistan, thus preventing India from taking a more active role as China continuously spreads. Japan’s population has grown even older and overall numbers lowered to historic levels, reducing the country’s power and enabling China to officially takeover the Senkaku Islands. China and Taiwan also engaged in minor skirmishes in the early 2020’s as China refocused on reclaiming their “rogue province.” These moves left China with few allies in the region. While undoubtedly still a world superpower, China must tread carefully. An aging population will create pressure on a communist government that cannot allow social security obligations to go unfulfilled. Additionally, a formerly unified culture has become more fragmented due to the number of foreign wives now living in the country. With an entire generation facing an extreme shortage of women, Chinese men were forced in droves to look overseas to find wives. These issues weigh on China, potentially limiting options when considering future actions globally.

Africa:

In Africa, several countries continued to exceed expectations. South Africa managed to extend a five year period of strong economic activity. On the other side of the continent, Egypt continued to dominate North Africa. After finally managing to stabilize the country’s internal conflicting elements in 2018, Egypt has completely turned itself around. Sustained population growth brought Nigeria into the global discussion as well.

Europe and North America:

Further north, Europe reeled under the weight of another financial meltdown. Again originating in the United States, many countries are in dire situations as a result of the college loan industry bubble pop. Governments in Western Europe and the United States have responded in the same manner they had for years; quietly limiting civil liberties while increasing spying efforts both abroad and even further at home. Similar to China, the United States is still an unquestioned superpower but must be cautious. The conflict with Iran has dragged on much longer than promised, with discontent growing significantly. To further complicate things, while the debt level has been stabilized, it is still extremely high. In Europe, Russia further distanced itself from the Western world, and has been becoming much more conservative politically. The levels of antagonism have not yet reached Cold War status, however the tension has steadily been growing. In North America, Canada has started drifting some from the United States, turned off by continued “adventurism” abroad. To the south, Mexico and the United States have become even closer friends as a result of the United States intervention into Mexico at the behest of the Mexican government. A quick foray into Northern Mexico from the United States military managed to put down the Mexican cartels in short order, restoring some semblance of peace and order to the ravaged country.

South America:

South America has not changed much. While Brazil has managed to modernize at a remarkable pace and elevated the living conditions greatly in the cities, the countryside remains embroiled in poverty. Also, despite raising living conditions for many, the country’s booming economy has mostly helped the already powerful. This growing inequality threatens the future of Brazil as many citizens have started becoming more and more vocal in their dissent. The pattern in Brazil has repeated across much of South America, with governments focusing on improving visible city life while those in rural areas continue to live fifty years behind. Issue One: Somalia

The situation in Somalia has continued to escalate and must be addressed by the Security Council. Without a real government or any authority in the country, for years it stagnated as a global afterthought, known only for occasional pirate activity. That began to change as the terrorist group al-Shabaab started gaining power. Initially the world was slow to react, as the terror activities were limited mostly to within Somalia and the immediate neighboring African countries, such as the Westgate Mall terror attack in 2013. After several years of terrorism, the group had successfully managed to consolidate its power and gain control of Somalia. 2022 marked the discovery of rare earth mineral deposits within the country, increasing its value significantly in the eyes of the outside world. Al-Shabaab has implemented a harsh Islamic doctrine on the country, destroying many civil liberties that may have once existed. An already dangerous country has become indefinitely more so, with random acts of violence taking place within the country to solidify the regimes power. With a hold on the country akin to that which the Taliban held on Afghanistan, it is clear that al-Shabaab will not give up power without a significant struggle. Recent intelligence reports strongly warn of an impending attack much deadlier than any previous al-Shabaab activity, though it is uncertain where this attack will take place.

Somalia has had a relatively brief history as an independent state. At the conclusion of World War II, Britain retained control of British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland while Italy was granted a trusteeship of their former colony. This deal was made under the provision that Italian Somaliland be granted independence within ten years. British Somaliland would not gain that privilege until 1960. On July 1, 1960 the two Somaliland’s voted to unite as one new Somalia. A coup in 1969 resulted in Somalia existing as a Communist state for several decades, with a harsh military dictatorship ruling in the late 1980s. When the populace could tolerate the deteriorating state of the country no longer, a civil war erupted in 1990.

The Somali Civil War dragged on for years and was of major importance to the international community, and the United Nations specifically. The United Nations Security Council passed several resolutions, the first being Security Council Resolution 736 and 746, which created UNOSOM 1 (United Nations Operations in Somalia). UNOSOM 1 supplied humanitarian aid and relief for the war-torn country starting in April 1992. UNOSOM 1 created a ceasefire in March 1992 as a condition for the aid, but this was violated repeatedly as neither side truly respected the United Nations force. The violence spurred the United States to offer up peacekeeping forces, which were inserted into the country in 1993. Initially the troops were a great success and managed to keep the humanitarian relief efforts on track. However, Somali rebel attacks inflicted bloody losses on the UN peacekeepers resulting in Operation United Shield in 1995. Operation United Shield brought about the withdrawal of peacekeeping forces from Somalia. Civil war raged on, destroying much of the country’s infrastructure in the process. Several attempts were made to govern the country, but all administrative efforts eventually ended in failure. The war officially ended in 2018 with al-Shabaab taking control of the capital, Mogadishu.

Five Things to Consider:

1. How do previous United Nation’s failures in Somalia weigh upon the current situation?

2. Does the threat of future violence constitute justification for present action?

3. What different United Nations actions have been taken against other terrorist organizations?

4. Can the failed states of Afghanistan and Iraq speak towards the ineffectiveness of using force in nation building?

5. Do the terror causing actions of select individuals cast guilt upon an entire state?

Issue Two: South China Sea

Tensions in the South China Sea have ramped up ominously. Chinese and Vietnamese vessels recently exchanged fire in the disputed area, and all sides are on high alert. Seven different countries lay claim to the region: China, Vietnam, the Phillipines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. The South China Sea is extremely valuable, with untapped crude oil and natural gas deposits, fishing, and control over shipping lanes. Beyond the above seven parties with a vested interest, other countries interests are at stake as well. The Indian government has been working diligently trying to secure mining rights in the region, as have many corporations from the United States. Easily accessible oil deposits are being used up faster than expected in the Middle East, giving these untapped sources additional importance. Yet, with the ever increasing risk of further hostilities and violence erupting, the aforementioned sources cannot be fully exploited. China views the Sea as its sovereign territory and has been unwilling to compromise. Meanwhile, other nations, such as the United States, deeply wish to keep the Sea open. Should one country exert control, other countries would need to receive permission to access the South China Sea. Given the importance of the area geopolitically, this would be catastrophic to the interests of all other countries. 2023 saw one vessel sunk as the year drew to a close and 2024 has already seen three more sunk exchanging fire. A permanent solution must be worked out from within this Security Council.

The most relevant resolution to this current situation is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (III), which came into force in 1994. This convention was instrumental in establishing guidelines on how the seas would be governed. The guidelines lay out transit jurisdictions, exclusive economic zones, and set out limits on travel, economic, scientific, and military activity. Most crucial of these guidelines to the South China Sea are the zones being established. The water within twelve nautical miles of a country’s coast are considered their territorial waters. Other nation’s vessels are allowed “innocent” passage through; meaning they simply travel through to a destination without stopping, fishing, performing scientific experiments, or any military maneuvers beyond the simple transit. Exclusive economic zones extend 200 nautical miles from the coastline, and as the name suggests, allow the nation sole control over all economic resources within the zone. Furthermore, if the continental shelf extends beyond the 200 nautical miles, the nation has control over those resources until the shelf ends.

Five things to consider:

1. Can any solution be brokered in which resources are divided equally between concerned parties?

2. What consideration, if any, should be given to the historical precedent of all oceans being free to all but belonging to none?

3. How can the United Nations ensure the safety of vessels traversing the region?

4. If nations have overlapping exclusive economic zones what determines who has priority?

5. Does the Chinese claim of a historical “nine dotted line” lend any credence towards their claim of the South China Sea, or should this be ignored?

My useful links include: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/country_profiles/default.stm http://news.google.com/ http://america.aljazeera.com/ http://rt.com/news/ Bio: Ethan Carr,23, hails from the backwoods of New Hampshire. He is a transfer student here at UMass- Lowell preparing to graduate. Since enrolling at the university, he has been a member of the International Relations Club for all three years and is a veteran of multiple Model UN competitions. Favorite pastimes include traveling, sports, and quoting Will Ferrell movies.