Erben & Yarbrough

ERBEN & YARBROUGH 807 Brazos, Suite 402 Austin, Texas 78701 (512) 472-1682 Fax (512) 477-9029/ (512) 477-4033

2012 Texas Politics Report

May 29, 2012 Primary Election

Generally: The composition of the Texas Legislature will be radically changed following a contentious redistricting session and subsequent litigation, which resulted in court- drawn maps and the delaying of the primaries over two months (from March 6 to May 29). Even before the primary, four state senators (out of 31 total) and 31 Texas House members (out of 150 total) either retired or sought other office. After the primary, this number increased to 38 House members (as seven House incumbents lost their primary elections). Also, four incumbent House members and one incumbent Senator faced a primary runoff on July 31. Because 38 new House members entered the Legislature in 2011, this means close to half of the House membership will have turned over in the last two election cycles, even before the November general election.

That being said, the partisan makeup will not be changed, as a lot of the changes occurred in the primaries. The current Senate partisan breakdown is 19 R – 12 D. The court- ordered redistricting plan, by the numbers, would elect 20 Rs and 11 Ds, which is the same as the legislative map. Both Senate plans largely preserved existing districts, creating a high likelihood that most Senate incumbents will win re-election in a general election. Most of the hotly contested Senate races (with the exception of SD 10 in Tarrant County, where incumbent Democrat Wendy Davis faces St. Rep. Mark Shelton [R]) were in the primary, following a pattern similar to what is occurring in the House races under the new maps.

The current House makeup is 102 R – 48 D. The court made more extensive changes to the House map than the Senate map. The court’s plan would elect 97 Rs and 53 Ds, while the legislative plan would have elected 100 Rs and 50 Ds. Republicans will enjoy a significant advantage over Democrats in the Texas House and Texas Senate, probably lasting through the next decade. Most competitive races will be in the primaries, and therefore the most liberal of the Democrats and the most conservative of the Republicans will be winning elections for the next 10 years.

Statewide Primary Races

U.S. Senate: Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (45%) led former solicitor general Ted Cruz (34%) into the July 31 runoff for the Republican nomination. Former St. Rep. Paul Sadler (35%) will face Grady Yarbrough (26%) in a runoff for the Democratic nod. Republican Nominee for Railroad Commissioner: There were two primary races for two open seats on the Railroad Commission, and both are headed for a runoff. Attorney Christi Craddick and St. Rep. Warren Chisum will face each other in the Place 1 runoff. Perry appointee and incumbent Barry Smitherman and Comal County Commissioner Greg Parker are in the July 31 runoff for Place 2.

Republican Nominee for Supreme Court: Justice Don Willett defeated Steve Smith to win the GOP nomination for Place 2, and is heavily favored against a Libertarian in the general election. Incumbent David Medina was forced into a runoff by Tomball J.P. John Devine in Place 4.

Republican State Senate Primary Results: Key Races

District 3 (East Texas): Jacksonville State Sen. Robert Nichols defeated Tammy Blair 75%-25%. Nichols faces no major party opposition in November.

District 4 (Southeast Texas): State Sen. Tommy Williams of The Woodlands defeated former St. Sen. Mike Galloway 62.5%-37.5%. Williams faces no major party opposition in November.

District 5 (Central Texas): In the race to replace retiring Senate Finance Chairman Steve Ogden, State Rep. Charles Schwertner of Georgetown easily bested Ben Bius 75%-25%. Schwertner is the Senator-elect as he faces no major party opposition in November.

District 8 (Collin County): In the race to replace retiring Senate Education Committee Chari Florence Shapiro, State Rep. Ken Paxton of McKinney was unopposed in the GOP primary. He will be a prohibitive favorite over Democrat Jack G. B. Ternan in the general election.

District 9 (Tarrant County): In a battle of state representatives to replace retiring Sen. Chris Harris, Kelly Hancock beat Todd Smith 65%-35% percent. Hancock will be heavily favored over Democrat Pete Martinez in November.

District 10 (Tarrant County): St. Rep. Mark Shelton handily beat Derek Cooper 81%- 19%. Shelton will face incumbent Sen. Wendy Davis (D) in what should be a close race in November.

District 11 (Galveston): State Rep. Larry Taylor easily defeated two opponents (one backed by trial lawyer Steve Mostyn) in the race to replace Sen. Mike Jackson, who unsuccessfully sought a congressional seat. Taylor will be favored over Democrat Jacqueline Aquistapace in the general election.

District 25 (San Antonio-Austin): Incumbent State Sen. Jeff Wentworth was forced into a runoff against physician Donna Campbell. This race was a surprise because it was expected that Texans for Lawsuit Reform-backed candidate (and former Railroad Commissioner) Elizabeth Ames Jones would make the runoff against Wentworth. An expensive, highly contentious campaign between Wentworth and Jones allowed Campbell to ease into the runoff.

District 29 (Lubbock): Incumbent State Sen. Robert Duncan bested E.M. Garza 85%- 15%. Duncan faces no major party opposition in November.

District 30 (North Texas): Incumbent State Sen. Craig Estes of Wichita Falls beat Jim Herblin 65%-35%. Estes faces no major party opposition in November.

District 31 (Panhandle-West Texas): Incumbent State Sen. Kel Seliger of Amarillo beat Randy Rives 76%-24%. Seliger faces no major party opposition in November.

Democratic State Senate Primary Results: Key Races

There were no open seats or contested primaries for the 12 Democratic State Senators.

Republican State House Primary Results: Key Races

District 2 (Van): State Rep. Dan Flynn turned away challenger George Alexander 60%- 40%. Flynn faces no major party opposition in November.

District 3 (Southeast Texas): Cecil Bell of Magnolia is the State Representative-elect in the new HD 3, beating two candidates with almost 60% of the vote.

District 4 (Athens): State Rep. Lance Gooden defeated Stuart Spitzer 53%-47%. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 5 (Mineola): Incumbent State Rep. Brian Hughes defeated Mary Lookadoo 78%- 22%. Hughes recently announced his candidacy for Speaker of the House, challenging Joe Straus. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 6 (Athens): Matt Schaefer defeated incumbent State Rep. Leo Berman 58%-42% and is the new State Representative-elect.

District 7 (Longview): State Rep. David Simpson defeated former State Rep. Tommy Merritt 62%-38% in a rematch of the 2010 primary. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 8 (Corsicana): House State Affairs Committee Chairman Byron Cook easily won his primary 62%-38% over Bobby Vickery. He faces Democrat Charles Morgan in November, where Cook will be the odds-on favorite.

District 9 (East Texas): Another incumbent loses his seat as former Marshall Mayor Chris Paddie defeated conservative State Rep. Wayne Christian of Center 52%-48%. Paddie faces no major party opposition in November. District 10 (Waxahachie): House Appropriations Committee Chairman Jim Pitts won the GOP nomination by defeating 3 challengers with 58% of the vote. Pitts faces no major party opposition in November.

District 11 (Jacksonville): Incumbent State Rep. (and committee chairman) Chuck Hopson (47%) was forced into a runoff against Travis Clardy (46%) of Nacogdoches.

District 12 (Bryan-College Station): In the race for the GOP nomination for this newly drawn district, farmer-attorney Tucker Anderson of Calvert will face rancher Kyle Kacal of Bryan in the July 31 runoff.

District 14 (Bryan-College Station): Current Republican St. Rep. John Raney, who won a special election in 2011 to replace retiring State Rep. Fred Brown, defeated Hal Hawkins 82%-18%. Raney will be favored over Judy LeUnes (D) in the fall.

District 15 (The Woodlands): Current House Public Education Committee Chairman Rob Eissler did not survive a challenge from Tea Party favorite Steve Toth, who won 56%- 44%. Toth faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 18 (Dayton): Current Republican St. Rep. John Otto defeated Dwayne Stovall 67%-33%. He faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 19 (East Texas): In the only primary pairing sitting State Representatives, freshman Rep. James White of Hillister bested House Licensing and Administrative Procedures Committee Chairman Mike “Tuffy” Hamilton 55%-45%. White faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 20 (Georgetown): State Board of Education member Marsha Farney was unopposed in the race to replace State Rep. Charles Schwertner, who won the SD 5 primary. She faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 21 (Nederland): House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Allan Ritter defeated Daniel Miller 73%-27%. He faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 23 (Galveston): In the race to challenge incumbent Democratic State Rep. Craig Eiland in the general election, insurance agent Wayne Faircloth (39%) will face rancher Bill Wallace (32%) in the July 31 runoff.

District 24 (Friendswood): In this open seat, physician Greg Bonnen received 45% (and brother of current State Rep. Dennis Bonnen) and will face business owner Ryan Sitton (33%) in the primary runoff.

District 26 (Sugar Land): In the race to replace retiring State Rep. Charlie Howard, Fort Bend County Party Chairman Rick Miller (41%) will face Sugar Land city councilwoman Jacquie Chaumette (27%) in the runoff on July 31. District 29 (Pearland): Insurance agent Ed Thompson defeated Debra Rosenthal-Ritter 67%-33% to garner the GOP nomination to replace State Rep. Randy Weber, who ran for Congress. Thompson will be heavily favored against Democrat Doug Blath in the general election.

District 33 (Frisco): Former NFL player Scott Turner won the Republican nomination over attorney Jim Pruitt 58%-42% for this newly drawn district. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 41 (Rio Grande Valley): In this open seat, Miriam Martinez of Edinburg (54%) bested Armando Vera of McAllen (46%) for the right to face attorney Bobby Guerra of Mission in November, who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Guerra will be favored in the general election.

District 43 (Coastal Bend): State Rep. J.M. Lozano (44%), who recently switched from the Democratic Party to the GOP, will face architect Bill Wilson (43%) in the July 31 runoff election. The winner will face former Democratic State Rep. Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles (who lost the general election in 2010 to retiring GOP State Rep. Jose Aliseda) in the general election.

District 47 (Austin): Current Republican St. Rep. Paul Workman defeated attorney Ryan Downton 67%-33%. He will be favored over Democrat Chris Frandsen in the fall.

District 53 (Kerrville): House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Harvey Hilderbran bested Cary Wise 74%-26%. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 55 (Temple): Incumbent State Rep. Ralph Sheffield defeated John Alaniz 57%- 43%. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 56 (Waco): State Rep. Doc Anderson (52%) won the GOP nod over two challengers. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 57 (Lufkin): Current Republican St. Rep. Marva Beck did not survive a challenge from Lufkin ISD school board president Trent Ashby, who won 58%-42%. Ashby faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 59 (Stephenville): Incumbent State Rep. (and committee chairman) Sid Miller (43%) was forced into a runoff against physician J.D. Sheffield (42%) of Gatesville.

District 64 (Denton): Incumbent State Rep. Myra Crownover handily beat challenger Mike Brucia 69%-31%. She faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 65 (Carrollton): In the race to replace retiring State Rep. Burt Solomons, investment manager Ron Simmons (62%) easily defeated two other candidates to gain the right to face Democrat Gary Edward Brown in November. Simmons will be the prohibitive favorite. District 67 (Plano): In this fine-person race to replace retiring State Rep. Jerry Madden, Jon Cole (32%) will face Jeff Leach (30%) in the July 31 runoff. The winner faces no major party opposition in the fall.

District 68 (West Texas): In this open seat, rancher Trevor McKnight (49%) almost won without a runoff. Instead, he will face financial services provider Drew Springer (34%), who beat two other candidates. The winner will be favored over Democrat Lanhon Odom in November.

District 69 (Wichita Falls): James Frank is the new House member from Wichita Falls. He was unopposed in the race to replace retiring State Rep. Lanham Lyne.

District 70 (McKinney): In the race to replace State Rep. Ken Paxton, who almost certainly will be in the Texas Senate next year, CPA Scott Sanford bested education consultant Bracy Wilson 61%-39%. He will not face a Democratic challenger in November.

District 73 (New Braunfels): State Rep. Doug Miller defeated Rob Smith 75%-25%. Miller will face no major party opposition in November.

District 83 (Lubbock): In a rematch from 2010, State Rep. Charles Perry beat former State Rep. Delwin Jones for the second time by a 71%-29% margin. Perry will not face a major party challenger in November.

District 85 (Southeast Texas): In this open seat, CPA Phil Stephenson beat Lee Duggan 53%-47% for the GOP nod. Stephenson will face former State Rep. Dora Olivo in November, where he will be favored.

District 88 (Panhandle): Incumbent State Rep. Jim Landtroop (34%) was forced into a runoff in a four way race that included former State Rep. Gary Walker. Landtroop will face oilman Ken King of Canadian (30%) on July 31.

District 91 (Tarrant County): In the race to replace State Rep. Kelly Hancock, who won his Senate primary, former North Richland Hills Mayor pro tem Ken Sapp (40%) led four candidates, and will face nurse Stephanie Klick (32%) in the runoff.

District 92 (Hurst-Euless-Bedford): In the race to replace State Rep. Todd Smith, who lost his Senate primary, Jonathan Strickland (60%) beat Roger Fisher (40%). He will not face a major party challenger in November.

District 93 (Arlington): Incumbent State Rep. Barbara Nash lost her bid for reelection, as attorney Matt Krause won 51% of the vote against Nash and Pat Carlson. Krause will be favored against Democrat Shane Hardin in November.

District 94 (Arlington): State Rep. Diane Patrick won over challenger Trina Lanza 75%- 25%. She will not face a major party challenger in November. District 96 (Arlington): State Rep. Bill Zedler defeated Mike Leyman 63%-37%. Zedler will not face a Democrat in November.

District 97 (Fort Worth): Craig Goldman (55%) won the GOP nomination outright over two challengers (including Texas Medical Association-backed Susan Todd), and will not face major party opposition in November.

District 98 (Southlake): State Rep. Vicki Truitt lost her reelection bid to Tea Party favorite Giovanni Capriglione. Capriglione faces no major party candidate in November.

District 106 (Collin County): In a newly drawn seat, executive Pat Fallon beat consultant Amber Fulton 71%-29%. Fallon faces no major party opposition in November.

District 114 (Dallas): In the race to replace retiring State Rep. Will Hartnett, attorneys Bill Keffer (a former State Representative) and Jason Villalba made the runoff in a three- way race. The winner will face former State Rep. Carol Kent (D) in the fall.

District 115 (Dallas County): In this open seat, optometrist Steve Nguyen (35%) and civil engineer Bennett Ratliff (30%) will face off in the runoff. The winner will be favored over Democrat Mary Clare Fabishak in the general election.

District 121 (San Antonio): Sitting House Speaker Joe Straus easily turned away Tea Party activist Matt Beebe 63%-37%. Straus faces no Democratic opposition in November.

District 127 (Kingwood): State Rep. Dan Huberty handily defeated Bobby Jordan 91%- 9%. Huberty will be favored over Democrat Cody Pogue in November.

District 129 (Houston): State Rep. John Davis beat challenger Mary Huls 77%-23%. He faces no Democrat in November.

District 132 (Houston): State Rep. Bill Callegari handily defeated Randy Brown 80%- 20%. He faces no major party opposition in November.

District 133 (Houston): State Rep. Jim Murphy (61%) beat Ann Witt. He faces no Democrat in November.

District 135 (Williamson County): Cedar Park city councilman Tony Dale beat CPA Paul Matthews 66%-34%. He will be a prohibitive favorite against Democrat Matt Stillwell in November.

District 138 (Houston): State Rep. Dwayne Bohac beat Whet Smith 73%-27%. He faces no Democrat in November.

District 143 (Houston): Doug Weiskopf beat Frank Salazar 61%-39%. The winner will be a decided underdog against State Rep. Ana Hernandez Luna, the Democratic incumbent. District 144 (Houston): Afghanistan veteran David Pineda beat Gilbert Pena 58%-42% in the race to replace retiring State Rep. Ken Legler. Pineda will be an underdog in the general election against the winner of the Democratic primary, Mary Ann Perez.

District 149 (Houston): Retired educator Dianne Williams (53%) bested two opponents to win the GOP primary. She will be an underdog against State Rep. Hubert Vo, the Democratic incumbent.

District 150 (Houston): State Rep. Debbie Riddle handily defeated James Wilson 81%- 19%. She faces no Democrat in November.

Democratic State House Results: Key Races

District 35 (Rio Grande Valley): Oscar Longoria, Jr. of Mission beat Gus Ruiz of Harlingen 55%-45%, and will only face no major party opponent in November.

District 37 (Brownsville): Incumbent State Rep. Rene Oliviera defeated Alejandro Dominguez 63%-37%. Oliviera does not face a Republican challenger in November.

District 39 (Weslaco): Incumbent State Rep. Armando Martinez defeated Joseph Campos 84%-16%. Martinez does not face a Republican challenger in November.

District 40 (Edinburg): In this open seat, Terry Canales (31%) will face Augustus Hernandez, Jr. (26%) in the July 31 runoff.

District 74 (Southwest Texas): In the race to replace State Rep. Pete Gallego, who ran for Congress (and made a runoff), attorney Poncho Nevarez (54%) beat two other contenders to win the Democratic nomination. He will be favored over Republican Thomas Kincaid in November.

District 75 (El Paso): In the race to replace State Rep. Chente Quintanilla, who ran for El Paso County Commissioner, consultant Mary Gonzalez (52%) beat two other contenders to win the Democratic nomination. She will face no major party opposition in November.

District 77 (El Paso): Incumbent State Rep. Marisa Marquez defeated Ricardo Barraza 62%-38%. She will face no major party opposition in November.

District 80 (South Texas): Incumbent State Rep. Tracy King defeated Jerry Garza 60%- 40%. He will face no major party opposition in November.

District 90 (Fort Worth): Incumbent State Rep. Lon Burnam narrowly beat challenger Carlos Vasquez 52%-48%. He will face no major party opposition in November.

District 95 (Fort Worth): In the race to replace State Rep. Marc Veasey, who ran for Congress (and made a runoff), attorney Nicole Collier (48%) almost avoided a runoff in a three-way race. Instead, she will face attorney Jess Gaines (38%) in the July 31 runoff. The runoff winner will not face a Republican challenger in November.

District 101 (Arlington): In a matchup of former representatives that lost in the 2010 general election to Republicans, former State Rep. Chris Turner (53%) beat former State Rep. Paula Hightower Pierson (34%) and one other challenger in a newly drawn seat. Turner has no Republican challenger in November.

District 110 (Dallas): In the race to replace State Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress, Toni Rose (63%) bested two other candidates to win the nomination. She will face no major party opposition in November.

District 117 (San Antonio): Former San Antonio city councilman Philip Cortez (35%) and attorney Tina Torres (34%) will compete in the July 31 runoff. The winner will face incumbent GOP State Rep. John V. Garza in November, in what promises to be a close race.

District 125 (San Antonio): In a matchup of former San Antonio city council members, Justin Rodriguez beat Delicia Herrera 67%-33% in the race to replace State Rep. Joaquin Castro, who successfully ran for Congress. He will be heavily favored over Republican Alma Perez Jackson in November.

District 131 (Houston): State Rep. Alma Allen defeated Wanda Adams 59%-41%. She does not face a Republican in the general election.

District 137 (Houston): In the race to replace retiring State Rep. Scott Hochberg, Harris County assistant district attorney Gene Wu (43%) and computer contractor Jamaal Smith (24%) led a four-person field and will face one another in the runoff. The winner will be favored over GOP nominee M.J. Khan.

District 144 (Houston): Insurance agent Mary Ann Perez (52%) beat two opponents to win the Democratic nomination in the race to replace retiring State Rep. Ken Legler. Pineda will be the favorite in November against Republican David Pineda.

District 146 (Houston): State Rep. Borris Miles won a victory over former State Rep. Al Edwards in their most recent matchup. Miles beat Edwards in 2010, and Edwards defeated Miles in 2008. There is no Republican challenger in November.

District 147 (Houston): State Rep. Garnet Coleman defeated Ray Hill 87%-13%. He is the overwhelming favorite against Republican John Faulk in the general election.

July 31 primary election runoff:

Statewide Runoffs

RRC 1: Parker v. Smitherman (R) RRC 2: Chisum v. Craddick (R) TXSC4: Devine v. Medina (R)

State Senate Runoffs

SD 25: Wentworth v. Campbell (R)

State House Runoffs

HD 11: Hopson (i) v. Clardy (R) HD 12: Anderson v. Kacal (R) HD 23: Faircloth v. Wallace(R) HD 24: Bonnen v. Sitton (R) HD 26: Chaumette v. R. Miller (R) HD 40: Canales v. Hernandez (D) HD 43: Lozano (i) v. Wilson (R) HD 59: S. Miller (i) v. Sheffield (R) HD 67: Cole v. Leach (R) HD 68: McKnight v. Springer (R) HD 88: Landtroop (i) v. K. King (R) HD 91: Klick v. Sapp (R) HD 95: Collier v. Gaines (D) HD 114: B. Keffer v. Villalba (R) HD 115: Nguyen v. Ratliff (R) HD 137: Smith v. Wu (D)

New State Senate Members

SD 5: Charles Schwertner (R)

New State House Members

HD 3: Cecil Bell (R) HD 6: Matt Schaefer (R) HD 9: Chris Paddie (R) HD 15: Steven Toth (R) HD 20: Marsha Farney (R) HD 33: Scott Turner (R) HD 35: Oscar Longoria (D) HD 57: Trent Ashby (R) HD 69: James Frank (R) HD 70: Scott Sanford (R) HD 75: Mary Edna Gonzalez (D) HD 92: Jonathan Stickland (R) HD 98: Giovanni Capriglione (R) HD 101: Chris Turner (D) HD 106: Patrick Fallon (R) HD 110: Toni Rose (D)