HG 5.6.17 KY DERBY Notes
Short and sweet, for the 143rd running of the KY Derby…drum roll please …in HG there were only (3) formbloggers who hit the board. GBL 1st, Dick W and Van Horn close for 2nd and 3rd.
Not sure which running of the HG contest this is? I’m sure someone out there knows : )
In my eye it was a chaotic race, with Thunder Snow leaping out of the gate fine and after a few jumps bucking like a banshee as if he was being stung by a bunch of bees…or had a bee in his bonnet.
TBTA then took out 1/4 of the field …oh, I mean Irish War Cry veered in sharply causing a multi horse reaction that I’m sure took several jockeys and horses out of their game plan. The payouts, once again, into the stratosphere. WOW!
Well, that IS the Ky Derby. Congratulations to the connections and owners, and our MKB connections for hanging in there this MKB season. Ups and downs, uncertainties and drama, for sure!
Annie and the Magic Genie ..Simply Superb!!
Results
5 Always Dreaming 11.40 7.20 5.80
1 Lookin At Lee 26.60 15.20
11 Battle of Midway 20.80
14 Classic Empire -
Pay offs: $2.00 Exacta (5-1) Paid: $336.20 , $2.00 Trifecta (5-1-11) Paid: $16,594.40 ,
$1.00 Superfecta (5-1-11-14) Paid: $75,974.50,
$2.00 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY DBL 13-5) Paid: $146.00
GBL - $10 EX 5-1 = $1681.00
Dick W - $8 wps 11 = $83.20
Van Horn - $10 win #5 = $57.00 If I missed anyone, raise your hand . Dan and PNR will make it official.
Van Horn 4 days ago
HG: I have been waiting for this day since Jan 25th. I watched a horse break his maiden at Tampa that day who I thought could be something special. The Florida Derby solidified such notions. I'm all in on Always Dreaming in Derby 143! However, for this week's HG, I will swing for the fences...
HG:
$1.00 Trifecta Box: 1-5-10-15-16 and.... .50c Trifecta Box: 1-5-10-15-16 and.... $10.00 Win: 5....
Van Horn
$10 Win #5 =
Dick Wright 3 days ago
HG Kentucky Derby
Well what to do ? I haven't a clue :-)
I will start with my irrational addiction to Battle of Midway. I won't bother with posting all of the negatives as you all know what they are and so do I. So I am ignoring the facts and going with a feeling I have that he is going to outrun his odds and will make a small across the board wager on him.
Now that I have flushed those Dan dollars down the toilet, I will try use a little more logic on my other wagers. The 2 most likely winners in my opinion are:
Irish War Cry and Classic Empire.
There are certainly others that you can make a case for, but you can't bet them all and they all have questions.
My next group of 4 are the following:
Gunnevera, McCraken, Gormley, Practical Joke.
I'll give Gunnevera a pass on the Florida Derby, but he has been finishing most of his races strongly. McCraken had done everything right until the Bluegrass. That was a weird race and I am not going to worry too much about it. He might also appreciate an off track.
Gormley is likely to be overlooked and could be a nice overlay. I think the figures for the SA Derby may have been a little light ?
Practical Joke has not yet been out of the money and if the track is wet, it might give him an advantage.
I don't know what to do with Always Dreaming. He fits the profile of a typical Pletcher bust. But he also appears to have some ability. Maybe enough to overcome the negatives. I will at least throw him in with my top 2 just in case.
I also don't know what to do with Hence. I was going to leave him out and then Steven T makes a compelling case for him. As does Andy, but I take that with a grain of salt. But I cannot ignore Steve's analysis of him and the Sunland Derby, so I will use him with my top 2 same as Always Dreaming.
So there you have it. I said you can't bet them all and I almost will :-)
So my wagers are as follows:
$8 wps 11 ($24)
$10 ex box 14,17 ($20)
$1 trifecta 14,17 with 10,14,15,17,18,19 with 10,14,15,17,18,19 ($40)
$1 trifecta box 5,14,17 ($6)
$1 trifecta box 8,14,17 ($6)
$.50 trifecta box 11,14,17 ($3)
Good luck to everyone with both real and imaginary wagers !!!
Dick W
$8 wps 11 =
GodBless longshots 2 days ago
HG
Well, I have touted LOOKING AT LEE (20/1) in his past two starts so I am going to stick with him as I really liked his Arkansas Derby. Instead of going crazy over him though, I would spread around those precious 100 Dan dollars. If I take into consideration that big money events are generally jockeys' event, there are only two in this race who showcase their absolute best under presented situation. They both are super talented yet unpredictable and that is precisely what I'm looking for. You never know what they would do. This race offers a perfect setup, circumstances, and chaos & confusion for them (should AD & CE fail to show) to display their mastery - no SR Vegas, its not your MKB :) viz-a-viz Rosario and "The Quitter" Kent. They often surprise me when I expect the least from them. Gamble it is, but its worth it.
All told, my approach is to go with the horse I like plus the big money riders who never have a problem riding - and frequently bringing in - price horses in open races. Who really is better other than Joel Rosario in such races?
$10 Win 1, 12, 19 = $30
$2 Ex box 1/2, 5, 7, 8, 12, 14, 18, 19 = $16
$1 Ex 2, 5, 7, 8, 12, 14, 18, 19/ 12, 19 = $14
$1 Tri 5, 14/ ALL / 1 = $36
$1 Tri 5, 14/ 1 / 12, 19 = $4
Total $100
P.S. edb good luck with your MKB. He should win it even with couple of drawbacks. He really doesn't need to be 100% to win this. Those three G1s at three different tracks (as Annie mentioned) plus the talent he showed at 2 is something perhaps rest of the field would never be able to accomplish.
GBL
HG Revised
Just want to redo my bets keeping same horses and the same analysis.
$10 Ex Box 1/5, 14 = $20 $5 Ex Box 1/12, 19 = $20
$1 Tri 14/ALL/1, 12, 19 = $54
$1 Tri 5/1,14/1, 12, 14, 19, = $6
GodBlessLongshots 2 days ago
HG Oops. It looks like I went $20 over $100 limit. I guess I need to adjust it.
$10 Ex Box 1/5, 14 = $40
$1 Tri 14/ALL/1, 12, 19 = $54
$1 Tri 5/1,14/1, 12, 14, 19, = $6
Total $100
GBL
Total $100
GBL