Decision-Making in Public and Private Contexts: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 2010 Reading List
Pre-Program Saturday, 10 April Topic: “Introduction: What is a Decision?”
Basic Colvin, Geoffery. 2005. "The Wisdom of Dumb Questions" Fortune June 27 2005: 157.
Kopeikina, Luda. 2005. "The Key to Mastering Decisions." Chapter 1 in The Right Decision Every Time . Pearson/Prentice Hall.
Kopeikina, Luda. 2005. "The Clarity State - Mental Focus Redefined." Chapter 2 in The Right Decision Every Time . Pearson/Prentice Hall.
Kopeikina, Luda. 2005. "Five Hurdles to Clarity." Chapter 3 in The Right Decision Every Time . Pearson/Prentice Hall.
Kopeikina, Luda. 2005. "How Do you Make Decisions? Overview of a CEO-Tested Process." Chapter 4 in The Right Decision Every Time . Pearson/Prentice Hall.
Russo, J. Edward and Paul Schoemaker. 1989. "An Excellent Decision-Making Process." Chapter 1 in Decision Traps: Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them . Doubleday: New York.
Russo, J. Edward and Paul Schoemaker. 1989. "The Power of Frames." Chapter 2 in Decision Traps: Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them . Doubleday: New York.
Russo, J. Edward and Paul Schoemaker. 1989. "Winning Frames." Chapter 3 in Decision Traps: Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them . Doubleday: New York.
Useem, Jerry. 2005. "Jim Collins on Tough Calls." Fortune June 27 2005: 89-94.
Useem, Jerry. 2005. "Decisions, Decisions." Fortune June 27 2005: 55-56
Useem, Michael. 2005. "In the Heat of the Moment" Fortune June 27 2005: 125-134.
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None Week 1
Monday, 5 July Topic: “The Utility Function: What Do You Like?”
Basic Clemen, Robert. 1996. "Risk Attitudes" Chapter 13 in Making Hard Decisions , 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press.
Clemen, Robert. 1996. "Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications" Chapter 14 in Making Hard Decisions , 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press.
McGuigan, James, R. Charles Moyer, and Fredrick Harris. 2002. "Expected Marginal Utility Approach" in Managerial Economics: Application, Strategy, and Tactics South-Western-Thompson Learning:
Intermediate Raiffa, Howard. 1968. "Utility Theory or What to Do about Non-EMV'ers." Chapter 4 in Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty ; Random House, New York.
Advanced/Maniacal None
Tuesday, 6 July Topic: “Optimization and Decisions” Guest Speaker: Dolores Romero-Morales
Basic Clemen, Robert. 1996. "Introduction to Decision Analysis" Chapter 1 in Making Hard Decisions , 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press.
Clemen, Robert. 1996. "Elements of Decision Analysis" Chapter 2 in Making Hard Decisions , 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press.
Clemen, Robert. 1996. "Structuring Decisions" Chapter 3 in Making Hard Decisions , 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press.
Clemen, Robert. 1996. "Making Choices" Chapter 4 in Making Hard Decisions , 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press.
Intermediate Hillier, Fredrick and Gerald Lieberman. 2005. "Introduction" Chapter 1 in Introduction to Operations Research , 8th Edition, McGraw Hill
Hillier, Fredrick and Gerald Lieberman. 2005. "Overview of Operations Research Modeling Approach" Chapter 2 in Introduction to Operations Research , 8th Edition, McGraw Hill
Hillier, Fredrick and Gerald Lieberman. 2005. "Introduction to Linear Programming" Chapter 3 in Introduction to Operations Research , 8th Edition, McGraw Hill
Advanced/Maniacal
Page 2 of 8 None
Wednesday, 7 July Topic: “Heuristics and Biases” Guest: Owen Darbishire
Basic Hammond, John, Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa. 1998. " The Hidden Traps in Decision Making." Harvard Business Review , September-October 1998: 47-58.
Nicholson, Nigel. 1998. "How Hardwired is Human Behavior?" Harvard Business Review, July-August 1998: 134-147.
Intermediate Conlisk, John. 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?" Journal of Economic Literature . XXXIV:669-700.
Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman. 1974. "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases" Science 185(4157):1124-1131.
Advanced/Maniacal None
Thursday, 8 July – Friday, 9 July Field Trip to London
Week 2
Monday, 12 July Topic: “Multi-Objective Decision Making: Complexity is a Pain in the Assumptions”
Basic Keeney, Ralph, and Howard Raiffa. 1976. "The Problem." Chapter 1 in Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs , Wiley: New York.
Keeney, Ralph, and Howard Raiffa. 1976. "The Structuring of Objectives" Chapter 2 in Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs , Wiley: New York.
Zeleny, Milan. 1982. "Multiple Objectives of Individuals and Organizations." Chapter 1 in Multiple Criteria
Page 3 of 8 Decision Making . McGraw-Hill , New York.
Zeleny, Milan. 1982. "MCDM in the Management Sciences and Operations Research." Chapter 2 in Multiple Criteria Decision Making . McGraw-Hill , New York.
Zeleny, Milan. 1982. "The Decision Process and Its Stages." Chapter 3 in Multiple Criteria Decision Making . McGraw-Hill , New York.
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None
Tuesday, 13 July – Wednesday, 14 July Trip to West Country
Thursday, 15 July Topic: “Wicked Problems and Clumsy Solutions” Guest Speaker: Steve Rayner
Readings TBD
Friday, 16 July Topic: “Bargaining and Negotiations: Let’s Make a Deal”
Basic Raiffa, Howard. 1982. "Some Organizing Questions." Chapter 1 in The Art and Science of Negotiation. Harvard University Press , Cambridge Massachusetts.
Raiffa, Howard. 1982. "Elmtree House." Chapter 3 in The Art and Science of Negotiation. Harvard University Press , Cambridge Massachusetts.
Intermediate Nyhart, J.D., and Dhanesh Samarasan. 1989. "The Elements of Negotiation Management: Using Computers to Help Resolve Conflict." Negotiation Journal 5(1):43-62.
Raiffa, Howard. 1982. "The Role of Time." Chapter 6 in The Art and Science of Negotiation. Harvard University Press , Cambridge Massachusetts.
Sebenius, James. 1992. "Negotiation Analysis: A Characterization and Review." Management Science 38(1):18- 38.
Advanced/Maniacal None
Page 4 of 8 Week 3
Monday, 19 July Topic: “Uncertainty – Deal with It” Guest Speaker: Cameron Hepburn
Basic Frank, Robert. 2003. "The Economics of Information and Choice under Uncertainty." Chapter 6 in Microeconomics and Behavior , 5th Edition, McGraw Hill-Irwin. (pages 209-223)
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None
Tuesday, 20 July Topic: “Organizational Decision Making and Implementation” Guest Speaker: Sue Dopson
Basic Bass, Bernard. 1983. "The Organizational Decision." Chapter 1 in Organizational Decision Making . Richard Irwin, Homewood Illinois.
Bass, Bernard. 1983. "Methods and Models." Chapter 2 in Organizational Decision Making . Richard Irwin, Homewood Illinois.
Bass, Bernard. 1983. "Search and Design." Chapter 4 in Organizational Decision Making . Richard Irwin, Homewood Illinois.
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None
Wednesday, 21 July Trip to Banbury
Thursday, 22 July Topic: “Limitations of Voting as a Group Decision Making Mechanism”
Basic
Page 5 of 8 Kolstad, Charles. 2000. "Social Choice: How Much Environmental Protection?" Chapter 5 in Environmental Economics. Oxford University Press.
Iain McLean. 2007. Climate Change and UK Politics, from Brynle Williams to Sir Nicholas Stern . Draft paper.
Riker, William. 1982. "The Connection Between the Theory of Social Choice and the Theory of Democracy." Chapter 1 in Liberalism Against Populism , Freeman: San Francisco.
Intermediate Feldman, Allan. 1980. "Arrow's Impossibility Theorem." Chapter 10 in Welfare Economics and Social Choice Theory
Advanced/Maniacal None
Friday, 23 July Topic: “Social Choice Theory: If Not Voting…”
Basic Stiglitz, Joseph. 2000. "Efficiency and Equity." chapter 5 in Economics of the Public Sector , 3rd edition, W.W.Norton & Company.
Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. "Models: A General Discussion." Chapter 2 in A Primer for Policy Analysis , W.W. Norton: New York.
Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. "The Model of Choice." Chapter 3 in A Primer for Policy Analysis , W.W. Norton: New York.
Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. "Decision Analysis." Chapter 12 in A Primer for Policy Analysis , W.W. Norton: New York.
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None
Week 4
Monday, 26 July Full day, introductory training in negotiations Guest Speaker: Tim Cullen
Readings TBD
Page 6 of 8 Tuesday, 27 July Topic: “Theories of Group Decision Making: The Cuban Missile Crisis”
Basic Allison, Graham. 1969. "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis." The American Political Science Review 63(3): 689-718.
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None
Wednesday, 28 July Topic: “Scientific Uncertainty in Complex Public Decisions” Guest Speaker: Jerome Ravetz
Basic Funtowicz, Silvio and Jerry Ravetz. 2001. "Uncertainty Management" Draft paper.
Funtowicz, Silvio and Jerry Ravetz. 1994. "The Worth of a Songbird: Ecological Economics as a Post-Normal Science." Ecological Economnics 10:197-207.
Ravetz, Jerry. 1994. "Economics as an Elite Folk Science: The Suppression of Uncertainty." Journal of Post Keysian Economics 17(2): 165-184.
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None
Thursday, 29 July Topic: "Applications in Decision Making"
Basic Staw, Barry. 1976. "Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action" Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 16:27-44.
Vaughan, Diane. 1997. "The Trickle-Down Effect: Policy Decisions, Risky Work, and The Challenger Tragedy." California Management Review , 39(2): 80-102.
Nagel, Jack. "The Move Disaster." in Richard Stillman, Public Administration: Concepts and Cases 7th ed.
Page 7 of 8 2000, Houghton Mifflin Company.
Intermediate None
Advanced/Maniacal None
Friday, 29 July Combined Final Exam
Page 8 of 8