Deanery Scoping

Deanery Scoping ROMSEY

1. Introduction Parishes in Romsey Deanery are largely either stable (17 parishes) or growing/changing with a small minority of rural parishes experiencing decline. We have categorized three parishes as more urban - that is they have a mixed longer-standing residents, middle-income family and professional profile. The other twenty parishes could be identified as having more of a rural profile. As elsewhere there is a clear and consistent ‘split’ socio-economic profile in most rural parishes so that they made up of longer-standing (isolated rural, local roots) residents and in Romsey Deanery some rural parishes now have a majority of more recent arrivals (professionals and wealthier retirees). This latter change is perhaps seen/experienced as more dramatic given some of these areas longstanding, but now obsolete, perception as being more ‘unchanging’ conservative rural communities.

In the more urban communities we see a greater social mix; increases in the middle aged and the retired, along with some new families moving into more “comfortable” family housing. These trends are likely to continue. Four parishes are identified as changing and five in total have had a 10% or more increase in population. Individually and cumulatively these changes have significant implications for the context, focus and content of our engagement and mission at both parish and at a deanery level.

Significantly there has been an average 15% decline in the number of people in the Deanery identifying themselves as Christian in the last ten years and this is 25% higher than the national level of decline, which is not what we would expect in such a rural area. This is largely down to the average 68% increase in the number of people choosing to now describe themselves as having no religion. This latter increase is similar to that found in some major urban areas. This decline and the wider changes in the Deanery increasingly has major implications for who and how people may be engaged, and the key messages and offers to and with local people which the church needs to be making to be more effective in its engagement and mission.

2. Focus More than seven of the parishes in the Deanery have been identified below as being a changing parish. This change takes many forms; four are simply identified as “changing” (an increase in population and a shifting demographic profile) one parish and a possibly others are polarising (where we can see significant and growing gaps in education, employment and wealth) and two parishes have been identified as declining (losing population, struggling to access/maintain amenities and keep their younger residents). Even the fifteen parishes identified as “stable” are not without significant shifts and challenges.

of 6 Key socio-economic and cultural dynamics in the wider community are driven by several factors and these factors, or trends, have significant implications for any future engagement and mission and any emerging models of church and wider offers. The key findings in this scoping work include:

a.i.1. Five parishes are seeing a significant (10% or above) increase in population (middle- aged, retirees and some young adults) and these new population groups are significantly altering the nature and dynamics of their communities.

a.i.2. Amongst the eighteen rural parishes they are increasingly notable for their gentrified professional profile, or in some cases a more spilt social profile of longer standing residents (isolated rural and local roots) and the (perhaps) more recently arrived educated and wealthier (professionals/ retired professionals). While this trend can be benign, it may also result in a degree of polarisation.

a.i.3. In Romsey itself and the other urban/urbanising areas its social make up is somewhat more complex. Apart from the longer-standing resident there are the new groupings of professionals, younger families in comfortable modern housing. In addition, there are significant numbers of retirees both those who are comfortably off and some who are struggling. This does not mean forgetting or marginalising the longer-standing/older or possibly less socially advantaged cohorts. But the church, as elsewhere, has not sufficiently responded to the changes that have occurred and it is at risk of not responding to those that will come over the coming decade.

a.i.4. Two parishes (and possibly more) are experiencing some decline. This is more than simply a reduction in population - they can face fundamental challenges in access to amenities and services, and in attracting and retaining younger residents. As with some of the polarising or even stable parishes, even where there is an increasing majority of wealthier or professional older or retired people, they now face significant challenges in providing even basic services within/to their community as there is no longer sufficient affordable housing, services etc.

Cumulatively these trends could amount to a significant challenge to community cohesion and sustainability in Romsey Deanery and to the connection and relevance of the church for their communities and the Deanery a whole. Arguably you could say that the Deanery is in a cultural catch-up mode and hence the substantial increase in those with “no religion”. Of course, change does not only happen in local communities but is also effected by the wider trends in technology, culture, economy and society which are impacting on communities and expectations. These trends are accelerating the decentring of the church from personal and collective life even as for some faith, communion or spirituality flourishes.

The tables presented below outline some of the key issues and dynamics for each parish. The first table is derived from the 2011 census and is based on a reading of the “parish spotlight” report, which can be found on the Diocese’s website. The second table presents the significant mosaic segments for each parish. This is based on Experian consumer data (credit, actual purchases etc.) and is more real time data. This can help us to understand the key groups that actually live in our parishes (please note: only the significant groups for each parish are presented and not all of them).

of 6 These tables are then followed by a brief discussion of the key findings and implications for our engagement and mission in Romsey Deanery.

Table 1. Parish key 2011 census (spotlight) issues

of 6 Table 2. Parish significant mosaic segment groups

3. Engagement and Mission Priority Groups The data presented in the tables above make it clear that while Romsey Deanery retains its rural ‘feel’ it is also a changing Deanery. Overall it is getting older and some areas are declining and/or polarising. But some newer groups are also moving in. Indeed, it is likely that the data presented above, especially when it is based on the 2011 census, already understates the pace and level of change. These changes provide some significant challenges and opportunities for local communities and the Deanery. But our infrastructure and offer has failed to keep up. Some parishes with a majority of inward looking decision-makers may have a world view that increasingly no longer reflects the reality on the ground. Generational and/or population replacement is underway in several communities and we can no longer rely on the model of a traditional village or parish church being relevant for the newcomers, newer and/or younger groups.

of 6 The changed, spilt or dynamic population profile creates a clear imperative for the church to adopt the role of the centre of changed village/town life as the priority for engagement and mission in the majority of parishes and at a deanery level (a 21st century village/community church).

The tables above show some significant variation between communities within Romsey Deanery. But no community is immune from the changes underway and the majority have already seen significant, or even substantial change. These changes continue to feed in differently, even in those communities that may currently appear to be unaffected.

4. Conclusion A decline in identification with Christian faith is now well underway in Romsey Deanery so we now urgently need to find ways to re-engage and resonate again. This is not about the church having pre-formed questions and answers but working with the groups identified above to reveal their concerns and develop meaningful solutions so that faith and a renewed church again becomes a central resource in their lives and identity. Two key dynamics now need to frame the future social vison and engagement of the church in Romsey, namely:

1. In most communities, a new resonating engagement and offer must now be developed with/for more recent arrivals and new groups moving in and younger residents and this needs to go beyond simply fitting in with the ideas/culture of those that may have long identified with the Church.

2. A significant joined-up response must now be made to the underlying and wider issues of community belonging and potentially sustainability. This is about building a positive and inclusive responses to the changes that have already happened and that will happen in the next few years (e.g. new housing, the replacement of earlier generations etc.).

The data tabulated above shows a clear dynamic and focus for engagement, mission and social action for parishes, clusters and the Deanery as a whole around on the younger families and professional household’s groupings. There are clear common themes shared across the Deanery specifically with both newer and longer-standing residents. A response to this changed social reality could take several forms and the focus and form of that response needs to be debated and decided. These debates could be based on a series of questions and possibilities, including:

a. How do we get to know and understand the key issues and perspectives of groups where we currently may have little presence or linkages?

b. What does the Kingdom of God look and feel like in a changing Romsey Deanery?

c. Do we need a joined up narrative brand/offer across all or part of the deanery – perhaps deployed locally with a differentiated focus?

So, for example, if amenities or isolation emerged as a common theme – the church could become a renewed base for peoples renewed lived/shared lives (communion) across the Deanery or undertake prophetic projects such as redeveloped spaces, reinventing Good Neighbours, co- working, affordable childcare and affordable housing.

But whatever happens the changes that have occurred now means that there is a need for a clear focus, new offers and the hope of personal and social transformation not only for themselves or by

of 6 themselves, but with others and something greater than us. This is an offer of personal and social transformation that will demonstrate emerging forms of the Kingdom of God while also maintaining the common good in Romsey Deanery.