Housing, health and demographic change across

Bruce Whyte Glasgow Centre for Population Health PHINS, 10th October 2014 Aims

• To provide an overview of demographic changes, housing changes and changes in other social determinants of health in Glasgow • To show how life expectancy has changed within Glasgow in last 15 years Glasgow Neighbourhoods Population changes Neighbourhood population change An increasingly ethnically diverse city Housing changes

New housing Demolitions New housing and demolitions Socially rented versus owner occupied Private renting increases Education, crime, environment Vacant and derelict land Greenspace Deprivation changes Deprivation changes within neigbourhoods (1) Deprivation changes within neigbourhoods (2) Life expectancy trends - this is a relatively old slide, so how much has changed? Life expectancy trends: Glasgow vs. Glasgow vs Scotland – gender gap in life expectancy narrowing Male life expectancy at neighbourhood level in Glasgow Change in male life expectancy at neighbourhood level in Glasgow Female life expectancy at neighbourhood level in Glasgow Change in female life expectancy at neighbourhood level in Glasgow Is a change in deprivation associated with a change in life expectancy?

No, or at least cannot be shown at a neighbourhood level There is a small positive association between population change and change in life expectancy Child Poverty vs Life expectancy

Estimated male life expectancy at birth (2008-20012) vs. child poverty (2011), Glasgow neighbourhoods Source: GCPH from data supplied by National Records of Scotland and Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs

85 55% 52% Male LE at birth Children in poverty - % 49% 48% 50% 83 47%47% 81.7 46% 45% 44% 80.6 43%43%43% 45% 81 42% 79.9 41% 40%41% 79.2 39%39% 38%38%38% 40% 79 37%37%37% 35%36% 34% 33%34%34% 77.1 33% 76.7 33% 35% 77 76.1 31%31%31% 75.9 76.075.8 30% 75.6 29% 75.475.4 75.3 75.0 27% 75.0 30% 74.6 74.4 74.4 75 25% 74.0 73.9 73.8 73.5 25% 73.1 25% 24% 72.8 22% 72.4 72.4 72.5 73 19%20% 72.0 71.6 17%71.417%18% 71.4 71.4 71.571.3 20% 16%16% 70.7 70.8 70.8 70.4 71 14%14% 70.2 70.1 69.9 % of children living in poverty 69.769.8 69.8 69.769.9 15% 11% 69.1 10%11%11% 68.968.7 68.9 Estimated male life expectancy at birth at expectancy life male Estimated 69 9% 67.8 7% 67.6 10% 67.4 66.7 67 66.2 5%

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The key findings for Scotland were: • a sharp rise in the number of individuals living in relative poverty in 2012/13 - up to 820,000; • rises in the percentage of children in relative poverty (up from 15% in 2011/12 to 19% in 2012/13) • rises in working age people and pensioners in poverty, 15% of adults in each are now defined as living in relative poverty Conclusions

• Glasgow’s population is growing. It is becoming an increasingly ethnically diverse city • Housing across the city continues to change through regeneration activities and development/gentrification in specific hot spots • There have been improvements in educational outcomes and reductions in recorded crimes • Vacant and derelict land remains a significant issue • Glasgow, while still having the largest concentrations of deprivation in Scotland, has seen reductions in relative deprivation

(In the last 15 years) • Life expectancy in Glasgow has been improving but wide inequalities remain • The gap in female life expectancy between those living in the most deprived and most affluent areas of the city has widened • Female life expectancy gains have been less than for men in the last 15 years; as a result the gap in life expectancy between men and women has reduced • Life expectancy remains very closely (negatively) associated with levels of poverty in the city Contact details and web links

• Email: [email protected]

Acknowledgements: Thanks to Craig Waugh and Lauren Schofield (both ISD Scotland) who helped produce the local health profile data and to Sheena Fletcher (GCPH) for her infographics

Useful web links • Understanding Glasgow - www.understandingglasgow.com • GCPH – www.gcph.co.uk