Finding Federalism in the

Steven Rood Philippine Country Representative, The Asia Foundation Philippine Update Conference 2-3 September, 2016 Australian National University House of Representatives: What’s “Party” got to do with it? Two Main Election Results Congress Organized Party Groupings May 1998 July 1998 LAKAS-NUCD-UMDP 110 39 LAMMP 56 142

May 2010 July 2010* Lakas 105 89 Liberal Party 45 73

May 2016 August 2016 Liberal Party 115 35 PDP-Laban 3 97

* By the time of the next elections (May 2013), LAKAS members were down to 27 and LP were up to 90. OUTLINE

Evolution of the Debate 1986-2014 Public Opinion on the issue: labile Dutertismo, Populism, Federalism Federalism and the Bangsamoro 1986 Constitutional Commission

. University of the Philippines draft enfranchised any region to be “autonomous” • Rejected by the Con Comm due to fear of “fragmentation” . Federalism overwhelmingly rejected . So, “autonomy” was granted only to those regions (Muslim Mindanao, Cordillera) which were lobbying 2005 Constitutional Commission

. 55 members but only 3 from Citizen’s Movement for Federal Philippines (Abueva, Lorenzana, Teves) . federalism: “to equate it at first to regional governance then to autonomous territories and eventually to the creation of federal states. … The former local governors and the business persons sitting in the ConCom compelled the compromise.” . “Federalism, its nuances and the other proposals may be clear to the ConCom members, political technocrats, the academe and old time proponents. The [405] AdCom sorties found out that this was not the case with the ordinary Filipino and the leaders nearest to them – the barangay officials and the local executives. Public Administration view: on Federalism

. Former UP NCPAG dean Alex Brillantes: “Federalism is really, as I used to say a long time ago, the next logical step to the evolution” • “[o]ne major reason why we are where we are is precisely because our local governments haven’t sufficiently been empowered.” . Ronald May: “the advantages claimed for federal over unitary systems read more like statements of faith than reasoned arguments.” • “there is little evidence that those espousing it have referred to the literature on failed federalism in the second half on the twentieth century” Recent Statements

• “Only 9% of the RDC initiated proposals find their way to the MTPIP or NEP. Ergo, for social inclusion, economic empowerment through the creation of another layer of political subdivision called regions with significant powers and countervailing forces.” Rep. Joey Salceda () • Mindanao Business Conference “also expressed support to the proposed shift to a federal system of government.” (26 Aug 2016) • Other businessmen express worries about more red tape, etc. SWS Surveys of Constitutional Amendments (2002-2006) 8% 4% UNIT SAPAT ANG KAALAMAN, KAUNTING KAALAMAN, UNIT SAPAT ANG 3% 4% May 2002May Nov 2002 Jun 2003 2005 May

CONSTITUTION, MAY 2002 TO 2005 CONSTITUTION,

LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE THE PHILIPPINE Q: Paano po ninyo ilalarawan angNG BAHAGYA KAALAMAN, ANG (MALAWAK inyong kaalaman tungkol sa HALOS WALANG KAALAMAN) KAALAMAN, Konstitusyon ng Pilipinas? Extensive knowledge Q. How would you describe your knowledge of the Philippine Constitution? Partial but sufficient knowledgePartial Little knowledgeAlmost no knowledge 21 20 16 60 32 21 54 23 17 43 29 44 79 80 70 Jun 1999 Nov 2002 Jun 2003 May 2005 Yes 14% 21% 20% 30% None 86 Q. In your opinion, are there Constitutional provisions which Please identify need to be changed now or none? IF YES: the What changed? would want to have Constitutional matters you RESPONSE ALLOWED) else? (MULTIPLE

OPINION ON WHETHER THERE ARE CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS THAT NEED TO BE AMENDED, JUNE 1999 TO MAY 2005 Q: Sa inyongprobisyon palagay, may po ba ang PakitukoyMAYROON: wala? KUNG ating po Konstitusyon ano kung na ang dapat mgaKonstitusyon? Ano baguhin bagay-bagay ALLOWED) po? (MULTIPLE RESPONSE pa na sa gusto ninyong ngayon o mabago sa need to be amended to need ano tungkol dito

AMENDED, MAY 2005 pangunahing bilihin Top 10 Answers Only Top 10 Answers karapatan ng mga mahihirap dito sa Pilipinas. Dapat payagan Don’t know/Can’t say 18 Pababaan ang mga presyo ng bilihinAyaw nilang payagan ang divorce 1.0 Bilihin—ibaba ang presyoAng pagpapalakad ng gobyerno. Ang 1.0 0.6 Tungkol sa VAT o taxPagtaas ng presyo ng bilihinPababain ang presyo ng mga 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 MaramiPamamalakad sa gobyerno. Kahit 1.1 1.9 Corruption 2.0%

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS THAT NEED TO BE that provisions there are Constitutional said who Base: Total Probability Respondent 1

OPINION ON WHETHER TO MAINTAIN OR CHANGE THE PRESENT SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT, MAY 28 – JUNE 14, 2003 In the present system of government, executive power and legislative power are separate. The first is under the President of the Philippines and the second is with Congress. All the executive departments are under the President. She/he is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and appoints court judges, the commissioners of Comelec, Civil Service, and Audit, and other officials. All bills done by Congress need her/his approval to become law.

In the Parliamentary system on the other hand, a large part, if not all, of the present powers of the President would go to the head of the party in control of the legislature, called the Prime Minister. There are many kinds of parliamentary systems, depending on what powers remain with the president. For any of these kinds to happen, some provisions in the Constitution need to be changed.

PR1, Q63. Would you like THE PRESENT SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT TO CONTINUE, or would you like TO SHIFT TO SOME KIND OF PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM?

Like the present system of government to continue 72% Like to shift to some kind of Parliamentary system 28% PREFERRED SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT: PARLIAMENTARY OR PRESIDENTIAL FORM, PHILIPPINES, AUG 1994-SEP 2005

Presidential Parliamentary Aug 1994 80 19

Sep 1995 81 18

Jun 1998 87 13

Mar 1999 79 21

Mar 2002 77 23

Sep 2005 69 28

Note: Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say responses not shown.

Q: Alin po sa dalawang sistema ng gobyernong ito, ang presidensyal o parliyamentaryo, ang inyong higit na nagugustuhan? AGREEMENT ON FEDERATING THE REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS, MAY 17-JUN 3, 2002

PR, Q104. In case there would be regional governments throughout the country, do you… (Strongly agree, Somewhat agree, Undecided if agree or disagree, Somewhat disagree, Strongly disagree)… that the system of government in the Philippines should be made FEDERAL, or don’t you know enough about the FEDERAL system?

Agree 20% Strongly agree 6 Somewhat agree 14 Undecided if agree or disagree 20 Disagree 20 Somewhat disagree 7 Strongly disagree 13 * Net +1 agree Don’t know enough about 40 the Federal system

* For greater precision, % Agree minus % Disagree are first computed before being rounded off. “THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE CHANGED TO FEDERAL AS SOON AS POSSIBLE”, BY AREA, JANUARY 2004

BAL. RP NCR LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO

AGREE 33% 30% 32% 28% 43% Strongly agree 11 11 10 8 16 Somewhat agree 22 19 22 20 28

UNDECIDED 33 36 32 37 28

DISAGREE 27 26 26 30 26 Somewhat disagree 14 17 14 15 12 Strongly disagree 13 10 12 15 14

NET* +7 +4 +6 -2 +17 *NET equals %Agree minus %Disagree correctly rounded Note: Don’t Know and Refused figures are not shown. Q46. Dapat gawin Federal ang sistema ng gobyerno sa lalong madaling panahon. [LUBOS NA SUMASANG-AYON, MEDYO SUMASANG-AYON, HINDI TIYAK KUNG SUMASANG-AYON O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI SUMASANG-AYON, LUBOS NA HINDI SUMASANG-AYON, O HINDI SAPAT ANG KAALAMAN TUNGKOL DITO] OPINION ON THE PROPOSAL TO CREATE REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS, PHILIPPINES, NOV 2002 TO MAR 2006

FOR NCR: At present, the highest local governments in Metro are the city and municipal governments, whose power compared to the national government is very small. Thus some are proposing to create a regional government for Metro Manila, and then there would be elections for the officials who would administer and make laws for Metro Manila as a region. For you, would this proposal be ______for our country? FOR OUTSIDE NCR: At present, the highest local government is that of the province; under it are the city and municipal governments. Since there are many provinces, the power of a provincial government compared to the national government is very small. Thus some are proposing to create a regional government for (R’s region) to replace the provincial governments. Therefore there would be elections for the officials of (R’s region) who would administer and make laws for the whole region. For you, would this proposal be _____ for our country?

Nov ‘02 Jun ‘03 May ‘05 Aug ‘05 Dec ‘05 Mar ’06

Good 42% 50% 37% 39% 38% 41% Definitely good 15 12 12 12 13 12 Probably good 27 39 25 27 24 29 Undecided 36 40 34 40 46 38 Not good 22 10 28 20 16 20 Probably not good 12 7 13 11 8 13 Definitely not good 10 3 15 9 8 8

NET 20 40 9 19 22 21 OPINION ON REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS, BY AREA, NOVEMBER 2002 TO MARCH 2006 BAL RP NCR LUZ VIS MIN November 2002 NET POSITIVE 20 721937

June 2003 NET 40 34 44 53 29

May 2005 NET 19 -7 14 -1 20

August 2005 NET 19 21 23 8 20

December 2005 NET 32 26 33 316

March 2006 NET 21 14 30 9 16 DUTERTE’S FEDERALISM BEGINS

. 11 September 2014 – Mindanao Council of Leaders -- Bukidnon Governor Jose Maria Zubiri, former Cagayan de Oro Mayors Reuben Canoy & Vicente Emano, former Congressman Romeo Jalosjos from Zamboanga del Norte and former Davao del Norte Representative Pantaleon Alvarez. . 5 October 2014 – – Lito Osmena – Federal Movement for a Better Philippines . 1 December 2014 “Once they open it (Constitution), we’ll start (a determined push for federalism),” Duterte at the Mindanao leaders’ summit on federalism. POPULISM

. an antagonism between the people and the elite, as well as the primacy of popular sovereignty . thin-centered ideologies do not provide answers to all major socio-political questions; compatible with other, more extensively developed political belief systems, such as socialism [“I am a leftist”] . a Manichaean discourse that assigns a binary moral dimension to political conflicts: “Us” and “Them” [victims versus druggies] . populist leader casts himself as an outsider who gains political prominence in association with new or newly competitive parties [read: PDP-Laban] Urban Vote for Duterte (Putzel) Populism

. Federalism as populism: “Duterte said he’s more partial to the federal parliamentary style seen in Singapore and Malaysia. He adds, however, that the country can also look into adopting the federalism model used by the US or France.” . Dismantling the oligarchy (Roberto Ongpin) . Human rights cannot be used as a shield (SONA) . Free irrigation . “Contractualization” Endo (business worries) . Demonization of shabu “shrinks the brain” (drug addicts are not human; all drug users are pushers)

Thank you

@StevenRoodPH