Climate Council

Angry Summer 2013/2014

Continuing hot on the heels of the ‘Angry were ravaged by fires. Prolonged and Summer’ of 2012/2013, Australians again intense heatwaves were experienced in major endured record-breaking extreme events this population centres, including Adelaide, Canberra summer. Drought conditions affected inland and . eastern , while parts of the north and west of the country experienced above average Over the 2013/2014 summer numerous rainfall. There was an early start to the bushfire extreme weather‑related records were season in , and parts of broken across Australia (Figure 1; Figure 2). , and

Key findings 1. Heatwaves and hot days, drought and 2. is already increasing the rainfall extremes (high and low), and intensity and frequency of many extreme bushfires dominated the 2013/2014 weather events in Australia. summer. For example: 3. Many of our largest population centres • had its driest summer stand out as being at increased risk from in twenty-seven years extreme weather events, including heatwaves, drought and bushfires. • Canberra experienced 20 days of at least 35°C 4. The impacts of extreme weather events on people, property, communities and the • Melbourne experienced its hottest environment are serious and costly. ever 24 hour period (average 35.5°C) 5. Limiting the increase in extreme weather • Adelaide had a record of 11 days of activity requires urgent and deep reductions 42°C or more during the summer in the emissions of greenhouse gases. The • Perth had its second hottest summer decisions we make this decade will largely on record determine the severity of climate change and its influence on extreme events for our grandchildren. This is the critical decade for action on climate change.

This report provides a summary of extreme weather conditions in the 2013/2014 summer, continuing the trend of hotter summers and more weather extremes in Australia.

°c

VICTORIA HOTTEST 41

as a Whole rd DRIEST in a roW over 4 DAYS canberra’s 3 summer on recordsummer on

for th summer on record on summer canberra’s 5

2013/2014 on record for 38 locations in DRIEST SUMMER

NEW SOUTH WALES around 150 bushfi res in victoria burnt 280,000 hectares in early february. Property on lost Melbourne’s fringe °c angry summer °c MelBourne DAY 35 canBerra as a Whole CANBERRA eXPerienced 34.5 of least at 20 DAYS HOTTEST

for °c 41 °c

°c in a roW over MELBOURNE: 4 DAYS °c 27 Period 35.5 in a roW over 39 MELBOURNE: hottest ever

MELBOURNE: CANBERRA: in a roW over avG 2 NIGHTS 4 DAYS 24 HOUR adelaide °c °c+ 42 on record for ADELAIDE: DRIEST in a roW over ADELAIDE: QUEENSLAND 42 SUMMER 5 DAYS 45 locations around around locations 45 11 DAYS 11 °c darWin DAY ADELAIDE: 44.7 Bushfi res in victoria’s in res Bushfi Grampians January in person, one killed destroyed property and burnt over 52,000 hectares FEBRUARY HOTTEST 6 locations in in locations 6 on record for DRIEST JANUARY SOUTH SOUTH AUSTRALIA Bushfi res in Januaryin res Bushfi south february in and threatened australia property and lives Perth’s second HOTTEST SUMMER RECORDON Perth

°c Bushfi res Bushfi destroyed property in the Perth hills NIGHT PERTH: EVER 29.7 hottest

156+ DAYS: of the

BoM 2014a–h; The Age 18 January 2014; The Age 11 February 2014 February 11 Age The January 2014; 18 Age The 2014a–h; BoM teMPerature RECORD teMPerature FACT Bushfire FACT conditionsdrY RECORD conditionsdrY FACT heatWave RECORD IN JUST here are Justhere soMe FROM THE SUMMER OF 2013/2014 AUSTRALIA BROKEN AROUND OVER RECORDS 90 156 During the summer of 2013/2014 a series of extreme events hit the nation the hit events extreme of a series During 1: 2013/2014 summerFigure the of Source:

2 Climate change and a record for four consecutive days at 41°C and extreme weather above (14–17 January) and two nights in a row at 27°C or above (15–16 January) (BoM 2014b). Australia has always been, and will continue to be, Adelaide sweltered through a record-breaking a land of extremes. However, climate change is five consecutive days of 42°C and above, and now making many types of extreme weather Canberra experienced a record run of four days worse, especially weather related to higher of 39°C (BoM 2014b). During the summer of temperatures. For example, Adelaide experienced 2013/2014, Canberra recorded 20 days of at least 13 days where the maximum temperature 35°C (BoM 2014c). exceeded 40°C (the average is 2 days per summer). Recent record-breaking events show that climate Since 1950 the number of heatwave days each change is already affecting Australians. year has been increasing in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Hobart, and It is crucial that we are aware of the influence across Australia as a whole (Perkins and of climate change on extreme weather so that Alexander 2013; Climate Council 2014). communities, emergency services, health services and other authorities are prepared Climate change and heatwaves for the likelihood of increasingly severe and Hot days, hot nights and extended periods frequent extreme weather. of hot weather – heatwaves – are one of the most direct consequences of climate change (Climate Council 2014). The increase in Summer 2013/2014 in detail greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily Heatwaves caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is trapping In Australia, a heatwave is defined operationally more heat in the atmosphere. This increases as a period of at least three days where the the likelihood of heatwaves and hot days and combined effect of high temperatures and decreases the likelihood of cold weather excess heat is unusual within the local (IPCC 2013). climate (BoM 2012; Nairn and Fawcett 2013). Since 1960, the annual number of record hot days Heatwaves have widespread impacts, ranging in Australia has doubled (CSIRO and BoM 2012) from direct impacts on our health to damage and over the past decade, record hot days have to ecosystems, agriculture and infrastructure occurred three times more often than record cold (Climate Council 2014). days (Trewin and Smalley 2013; CSIRO and BoM What happened? 2014). Since 2001, the number of extreme heat During summer 2013/2014, intense and records has been almost three times greater prolonged heatwaves scorched central and than the number of cold records for daytime eastern Australia, with major population centres temperatures, and almost five times greater for – Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne – and nighttime temperatures (CSIRO and BoM 2014). their surrounding areas particularly affected. The nature of heatwaves in Australia is also changing: they are becoming hotter, lasting Record high maximum temperatures occurred longer, starting earlier, and occurring more over 8.8 percent of Australia during the first four frequently (Perkins and Alexander 2013; days of January, including 17 percent of New Climate Council of Australia 2014). South Wales, 17 percent of the Northern Territory, 16 percent of Queensland and 8 percent Although Australia has always experienced hot of South Australia (BoM 2014a). weather, it now occurs more often, and is more intense because of climate change. Australia is This summer’s heatwaves were particularly not unique. Over the past decade, a remarkably significant because of their record‑breaking large number of record-breaking and devastating duration in major population centres in heatwaves have occurred in many other parts of southeast Australia. the world (Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012). Victoria experienced its hottest four days on record from 14–17 January, and Melbourne set

3 Figure 2: Individual site records broken during major heatwaves that scorched Australia during the summer of 2013/2014 angry2013/2014 summer TEMPERATURE RECORDSBROKEN hottest dailY MaXiMuM teMPerature on record 47.5 OC 45.8OC 44.5OC 42.4OC 44.1OC 48OC 47.8 OC 45.1OC 41.2OC KellerBerrin Wa naracoorte sa taMBo Qld GYMPie Qld inJune Qld collareneBri nsW narraBri nsW taMWorth nsW Murrurundi nsW

44OC 40.5OC 45.3OC 41OC (=) 45.8OC 47.6 OC 44.9OC 36.9OC 42.5OC WaGin Wa tuMBaruMBa nsW tarooM Qld KinGaroY Qld roMa Qld coonaMBle nsW BarraBa nsW arMidale nsW MudGee nsW

36.9OC 32.4OC 45.7OC 46.4OC 47.2 OC 48.2OC 41.5OC 36OC 44OC nePtune island sa caBraMurra nsW BlacKall Qld GoondiWindi Qld st. GeorGe Qld MunGindi nsW Pindari daM nsW Glen innes aG coonanBaraBran nsW nsW

42.2OC 42.5OC (=) 47.3 OC 39.5OC 47OC (=) 49.1OC 45.9OC 41.1OC 44.2OC caPe WillouGhBY sa BurrinJucK daM urandanGi Qld tooWooMBa Qld cunnaMulla Qld WalGett nsW Gunnedah inverell dunedoo nsW nsW research nsW research nsW

46OC 45.6OC 48OC 37.8 OC 47.1OC 47.3 OC 45.1OC 41.9OC 45.7OC Keith sa Brunette doWns nt Windorah Qld aPPlethorPe Qld QuilPie Qld Moree nsW Quirindi nsW inverell surat Qld (raGlan st) nsW

44.1OC 48.9OC (=) Mount GaMBier sa tarcoola sa

hottest deceMBer MaXiMuM teMPerature on record darWin 47.4 OC 45.7OC 46OC 46.6OC eucla Wa southern cross charleville Qld isisford Qld Barcaldine Wa QLD urandanGi had a run of 10 consecutive days 46.5OC 44.3OC 41.5OC QLD of 40ºc or above (a site record) forrest Wa clerMont Qld rocKhaMPtoM Qld had a run of also experienced the 5 consecutive days HIGHEST WEEKLY AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES of 45ºc or above 43.2ºc (a site record) 38.3OC – a site record and two taBulaM nsW more than the previous record of 3 days roMa QLD hottest JanuarY MaXiMuM broke its record for teMPerature on record charleville highest maximum QLD temperature 49.2OC 44.4OC had its highest weekly 3 tiMes eMu creeK Wa PinGellY Wa average maximum this summerBrisBane narraBri temperature (29 Dec, 30 Dec NSW and 3 Jan) 46.3OC 43.2OC broke its previous highest 43.4°c northaM Wa elliston sa maximum temperature record (a site record) 47.8°C by 3.6°c O O – the largest margin 46.6 C 44 C (=) for any Australian location YorK Wa staWell vic with 40+ years of data Perth sYdneY adelaide O O O 46.4 C 44.6 C 44.9 C canBerra BeverleY Wa Bairnsdale vic Barcaldine Qld

MelBourne 45.2OC 43.8OC 46OC BrooKton Wa MarYBorouGh vic caMooWeal Qld

45.9OC 33.9OC 37.5 OC 47.4 OC 38OC corriGin Wa laKe st. claire tas WoolBrooK nsW cooBer PedY sa locKhart river Qld hoBart 45.1OC 36.2OC 42.3OC 44.5OC 38OC 43.9OC laKe Grace Wa strathGordon tas GulonG nsW onGeruP Wa strahan tas huGhenden Qld

WarMest niGht on record (hiGhest MiniMuM teMPerature) 30.5OC 31.2OC 28.6OC 28.6OC 28.5OC 30.5OC 23OC 29.2OC 26.2OC WonGan hills Wa Pearce Wa BendiGo vic MooraBBin vic caPe nelson vic Barcaldine Qld aPPlethorPe Qld roMa Qld taBulaM nsW

29.7OC 29.1OC 28.8OC 27.4 OC 31.5OC 26.8OC 29.7OC 29.4OC Perth Metro Wa caPe Borda sa essendon vic ararat vic Brunette doWns nt Monto Qld Mitchell Qld surat Qld

WarMest deceMBer niGht on record WarMest JanuarY niGht on record (hiGhest MiniMuM teMPerature) (hiGhest MiniMuM teMPerature) 31OC 28.5OC 30.4OC 28.4OC 28.7OC 29.5OC Wiluna Wa Perth airPort Wa YuenduMu nt horn island Qld WeiPa Qld taMBo Wld

Source: BoM 2014a; BoM 2014b

4 The IPCC Special Report on Extremes (2012) and of South Australia. A large part of this area the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) project experienced the highest 10 percent of summer that it is virtually certain (greater than 99 percent rainfall records. In the tropical north and eastern probability) that hot extremes will increase and Western Australia, the majority of summer rainfall cold extremes will decrease through the century was the result of tropical cyclones or significant compared to the current climate. tropical lows (BoM 2014i). Rainfall extremes (high and low) Climate change and rainfall extremes Australia is a large country and rainfall varies The conditions that cause drought and rainfall across the continent. are complex. While some parts of Australia have become wetter, much of the eastern part of What happened? Australia has become drier over the past four Dry conditions prevailed in many regions, decades (Climate Commission 2013; BoM 2014l). particularly much of inland eastern Australia which was affected by drought conditions (BoM 2014i). Since the 1960s, southeast Australia has Northeastern New South Wales and southeastern experienced a number of major droughts. One of Queensland experienced serious rainfall deficits the most severe was the recent Millennium (lowest 10 percent of records), and Sydney had its Drought (1997-2009), for which there is some driest summer in almost thirty years (BoM 2014i). evidence of a climate change influence (CSIRO Other smaller areas of Victoria, and 2012). The intensity of the subtropical ridge (STR), southwest Western Australia were also affected by a high pressure system that often lies over serious rainfall deficits (BoM 2014i). On the other southern Australia, has been implicated in the hand, rainfall was above average across the west of decreased rainfall in the southeast (CSIRO 2010). Queensland's Cape York Peninsula, through the Rising global temperatures have been linked to north and west of the Northern Territory, through an increase in the intensity of the STR (Timbal most of Western Australia and along the coast and Drosdowsky 2013), with the result being a drier and more drought-prone southeast Australia.

Figure 3: The summer mean temperature anomaly for Australia (1910-2013) indicating a continuing trend of hotter summers, including eight of the hottest summers on record occurring in the past fifteen years. The summer anomaly is a deviation from the long-term average (1961 to 1990).

Mean temperature anomaly of eight of the hottest Australian summers (1910–2013) Summers on above the long-term average record in australia 1 have occurred in 1 the last fifteen years

0.5 0.5 Mean temperature anomaly (°C)

0 0

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Data source: Modified from BoM 2014m 5 Bushfires The future for extreme Bushfires – a natural part of the Australian weather in Australia landscape – can severely affect biodiversity, Australia has experienced hotter summers since human health, property, economic activity the middle of the 20th century (Figure 3), including and infrastructure. eight of the hottest summers on record occurring What happened? in the last fifteen years. Over the coming decades, it is virtually certain that extreme hot weather will The intense and prolonged heatwaves that continue to become even more frequent and severe affected several capital cities and their in Australia and other parts of the world. surrounding regions this summer stacked the odds towards more severe bushfire weather. To slow and eventually halt the increase in Fires burnt near Perth in mid-January 2014, extreme heat and rising bushfire risk, the climate destroying property and costing an early‑figure needs to be stabilized. This requires a rapid, estimate of $15 million (ICA 2014). Fires also deep and long-term reduction in greenhouse gas burnt large areas of Victoria’s Grampians emissions. The current trend of rising global (The Age, 18 January 2014), and threatened emissions needs to be turned around by 2020 and communities on Melbourne’s fringe (The Age, the right investment decisions need to be made 11 February 2014) and in South Australia over the next few years to deliver the longer term (The Guardian, 9 February 2014). emission reductions that are required. Climate change and bushfires This is the critical decade for action. We are now in 2014 and approaching the halfway point in Climate change is driving an increase in the the decade. Despite the promising developments risk of bushfires. More hot days and the in low carbon technologies and energy efficiency increasing intensity, duration and frequency measures, Australians have not yet reached a of heatwaves mean that the chance of very consensus on the need to decarbonize our high fire danger weather – and in turn bushfires economy and on the development of policies that – is increasing (Climate Council 2013). Since will turn investments towards a decarbonized the 1970s, significant increases in fire danger future. This challenge must be met if we are to weather has been observed in the southeast minimize the risk of worsening extreme weather of Australia (Clarke et al. 2013; CSIRO and events for our children and grandchildren. It’s time BoM 2014). to get on with the job.

6 References: BoM (2012) Annual Climate Summary 2012. Bureau of CSIRO (2010) Climate variability and change in south‑eastern Meteorology. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 1 of the South. annual_sum/2012/index.shtml. Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI). BoM (2014a) Special Climate Statement 47 – an intense CSIRO (2012) Climate and water availability in south‑eastern heatwave in central eastern Australia. Accessed at http:// Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 2 of the South www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs47.pdf. Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI). CSIRO, Australia, September 2012, 41 pp. BoM (2014b) Special Climate Statement 48 – one of southeast Australia’s most significant heatwaves. CSIRO and BoM (2012) State of the Climate 2012. Accessed Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/ at http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/ statements/scs48.pdf. State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx. BoM (2014c) Canberra in summer 2013–14: Hot, dry summer CSIRO and BoM (2014) State of the Climate 2014. for Canberra. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ Accessed at http://www.csiro.au/en/Outcomes/Climate/ current/season/act/summary.shtml. Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2014.aspx. BoM (2014d) Adelaide Metro & Hills in February 2014: ICA (Insurance Council of Australia) (2014) Record rainfall in a warm month. Accessed at http://www. Historical Disaster Statistics. Accessed at bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/sa/adelaide.shtml. http://www.insurancecouncil.com.au/industry-statistics- data/disaster-statistics/historical-disaster-statistics. BoM (2014e) Adelaide Metro & Hills in summer 2013–14: Extremes throughout the season. Accessed at http://www. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012) bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/sa/adelaide.shtml. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of BoM (2014f) NSW in summer 2013–14: Driest summer since Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on 1984–5. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ Climate Change. Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, current/season/nsw/summary.shtml. Dokken D, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, BoM (2014g) Queensland in summer 2013–14: Dry in the Allen SK, Tignor M and PM Midgley (eds.), Cambridge south east quarter, hot days across the south, warm nights University Press, Cambridge and New York, 582 pp. in the west. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science current/season/qld/summary.shtml#recordsRainTtlLow. Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC 5th BoM (2014h) South Australia in January 2014: Records Assessment Report – Changes to the underlying Scientific/ tumble in heatwaves. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/ Technical Assessment. Accessed at http://www.ipcc.ch/ climate/current/month/sa/summary.shtml. report/ar5/wg1. BoM (2014i) Australia in summer 2013–14. Accessed at http:// Perkins S and Alexander L (2013) On the measurement www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml. of heatwaves. Journal of Climate 26:4500-4517. BoM (2014j) Rainfall deficiencies increase in Queensland and Nairn J and Fawcett R (2013) Defining Heatwaves: adjacent New South Wales and South Australia. Accessed at Heatwave defined as a heat-impact even servicing all http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20140204. community and business sectors in Australia. CAWCR shtml.www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20140204. Technical Report, No. 060. CSIRO and Australian Bureau shtml. of Meteorology, p 96. BoM (2014k) Sydney in summer 2013-14: Driest summer since The Age (18 January 2014) Fire threat eases as crews 1986-87. Accessed at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/ continue to battle Grampians blaze. Schetzer A and Dow A. season/nsw/sydney.shtml. Accessed at http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fire-threat- eases-as-crews-continue-to-battlegrampians-blaze- BoM (2014l) BoM ACORN-SAT station data and network 20140117-310km.html. maximum temperature data. Accessed at http://www.bom. gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/#tabs=1. The Age (11 February 2014) Arson suspected in Victorian bushfires. Webb C and Dow A. Accessed at http://www. BoM (2014m) Australian climate variability & change – Time theage.com.au/victoria/arson-suspected-in- series graphs. Accessed at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ victorianbushfires-20140210-32d09.html. change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries. The Guardian (9 February 2014) Homes lost as fires Clarke H, Lucas C, Smith P (2013) Changes in Australian burn across Victoria – day’s developments. Davidson H. fire weather between 1973 and 2010. International Journal Accessed at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/ of Climatology 33:931-944. feb/09/homes-lost-as-fires-burn-across-victoriasouth- Climate Commission (2013) The Critical Decade: Extreme australia-live. Weather. Steffen W, Hughes L and Karoly D. Timbal B, Drosdowsky W (2013) The relationship between Climate Council of Australia (2013) Be prepared: Climate change the decline of Southeastern Australian rainfall and the and the Australian bushfire threat. Hughes L and Steffen W. strengthening of the subtropical ridge. International Journal of Climatology 33:1021-1034. Climate Council of Australia (2014) Heatwaves: Hotter, longer, more often. Steffen W, Hughes L and Perkins S. Trewin B, Smalley R (2013) Changes in extreme temperatures in Australia, 1910 to 2011. In: Proceedings Coumou D and Rahmstorf S (2012) A decade of weather of the 2013 AMOS National Conference. Melbourne, extremes. Nature Climate Change 2:491-496. Australia, 11–13 February 2013. 7 Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: Print: 978-0-9924142-4-5 Web: 978-0-9924142-5-2

© Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2014

This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated.

Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au

You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner:

Angry Summer 2013/2014 by the Climate Council of Australia

Permission to use third party copyright content in this publication can be sought from the relevant third party copyright owner/s.

This report is printed on 100% recycled paper.

www.climatecouncil.org.au