new democracy forum is it africa’s turn? Progress in the world’s poorest region Edward Miguel
hings were certainly looking and challenged old ways of doing busi- up when I last visited Busia, ness in the halls of government. Although Ta small city in Kenya, in mid- Kenya’s recent stolen election was a huge 2007. Busia, home to about 60,000 resi- step backwards, there was a time not long dents, spans Kenya’s western border with ago when opposition parties were not even Uganda: half the town sits on the Kenyan allowed to contest African elections, and all side and half in Uganda. As befits a border private media outlets were banned. town, Busia is well endowed with gas sta- Freedom House, an independent non- tions, seedy bars, and hotels catering to profit organization, produces a commonly the truckers who spend the night on the used index of democratic freedoms, as- way from Nairobi to Uganda. signing values from one (most democratic) com When I visited last June, the city was . to seven (least). In the 1970s and ’80s experiencing an economic renaissance. most counties in Africa averaged democ- photo
Busia’s first supermarkets, ATMs, Inter- g racy scores hovering around six, a level net cafés, and car rental businesses were at which political freedoms are basically all open, and residential suburbs had herwi nonexistent, dissident speech is violently formed on the edge of town. The small g / repressed, and elections—if they are even
dukas—shops selling home food sup- herwi held—are mainly for show. plies and airtime for now-omnipresent Starting in 1991, however, citizens in cell phones—were freshly painted with dozens of African countries fought for advertisements for local dairy products. political change. Some were inspired by
And most importantly, the road from christopher the freedom wave then sweeping the So- Kisumu, the economic hub of the region viet bloc and the demise of Apartheid in and Kenya’s third largest city, to Busia resignation and fear of the 1990s were re- might expect from the epicenter of the South Africa. By 2007 the African Free- had become a paved, two-lane highway placed by energy, optimism, and a feeling global HIV/AIDS epidemic. dom House average had jumped to a four. all the way to the border, expediting trade that there was no time to lose. Continuing the positive economic Thus, the typical African country is still with Uganda’s productive factories and But that feeling dissipated quickly trends of the 1940s and ’50s, many newly not as democratic as Sweden or India, but farmers. in the weeks following Kenya’s disputed independent African countries saw im- progress has been widespread and visible. Yet, barely a decade ago, poverty and December 27, 2007 presidential election. provements in the ’60s. But these signs Opposition parties are ubiquitous and desperation were pervasive there, as in The incumbent president Mwai Kibaki of advancement soon gave way to stag- open debate the norm in a growing num- all of western Kenya. Primary-school was reelected, allegedly through heavy gering reversals. After peaking around ber of African countries, putting them far enrollment rates had fallen throughout ballot-box rigging. The results, and sub- 1975, African per capita income steadily ahead of the entrenched dictatorships in the 1990s, public health surveys in 1997 sequent violent opposition protests and declined through 2000, with average liv- Asian economic stars like China and Viet- showed that the HIV infection rate might ethnic clashes, surprised many Kenyans ing standards falling 20 percent. Kenya nam in terms of developing free political be upwards of 30 percent among pregnant and most observers, who thought that the serves as a pretty close stand-in for the institutions. women, and the road into Uganda—the elections would be free and fair and that entire continent: the timing of its eco- Until its recent relapse, Kenya had lifeblood of a border town and one of they would help Kenya turn the corner on nomic advance and decline differs only experienced an even more inspiring turn- Kenya’s critical international trade arter- its autocratic past. The government power- slightly, with incomes peaking slightly around, from a Freedom House ranking ies—was falling apart. Long stretches of sharing deal that Kofi Annan negotiated later. During the same period, two other of seven in 1995 to a three following the the drive from Kisumu were nearly im- between the government and opposition, once desperately poor regions carried 2002 elections won by then–opposition passable due to moon-crater potholes; cars after two months of bloodshed, has in- out an economic transformation: Indian leader Kibaki. Daniel arap Moi, a mem- hugged the side of the road or slalomed stilled tentative hope. per capita incomes doubled and Chinese ber of the Kalenjin ethnic group and a across the remaining patches of asphalt. The recent violence in Kenya is a levels rose four-fold. violent, polarizing, and autocratic ruler Eastbound and westbound vehicles alter- heartbreaking disappointment, but the The academic debate on what went who became President in 1978, impris- nated control over the pavement, setting Lazarus story I witnessed in Busia— wrong in Africa at the end of the twen- oned and tortured hundreds of dissidents a deadly stage, especially at night, for road though it may have been temporary—is tieth century is extensive, but the lead- when he officially turned the country accidents, as oil tankers and buses sped in being repeated in hundreds of cities, ing culprits seem to be bad economic into a one-party state in the 1980s. By opposite directions. towns, and villages, not just in Kenya, but policy and weak state institutions. Here, the 1990s Kenya’s political institutions I have visited Busia every year since all over Africa. Economic growth rates are though, I am more concerned with what were every bit as corroded as the Kisumu- 1997 to help local development-oriented at historic highs and democratization ap- has gone right since 2000, the turnaround Busia highway. nonprofit organizations design and evalu- pears finally to be taking root. The ques- in economic performance that has lifted Popular protests—buttressed by ate their rural programs. In so doing, I tion emerges: Will Africa be the world’s African per capita income levels close foreign donor pressure—forced Moi have been exposed to impressive changes next development miracle? to their all-time highs. Africa’s recovery to hold Kenya’s first competitive elec- that are mirrored throughout the country. may still be modest by China and India’s tions in a generation in 1992 and again Kenyan economic growth rates surged n 2000, sub-Saharan Africa—that is, standards (average annual per capita in- in 1997. But neither election was fair; between 2002 and 2007, achieving lev- Iall of Africa, excluding North Africa, come growth for all sub-Saharan Africa Moi held all the levers of state power and els not seen since the 1970s. Last sum- which represents only 15 percent of the has been at about 3 percent between 2000 would never allow himself to lose. Ethnic mer Nairobi’s never-ending traffic jams continent’s population—was at the end and 2007), but it constitutes a clear break clashes—most likely manufactured by of imported Japanese cars were but one of an uninterrupted quarter century of from the past, and it is now possible to the president himself—broke out before tangible indication that Kenyans were economic and political failure, a downward wonder whether the terrible decades of both polls and served to intimidate the suddenly on the move. Construction tailspin that gave the world the 1984-85 war, famine, and despair are finally over. opposition, which was already reeling projects were everywhere, as developers Ethiopian famine and the 1994 Rwan- Several continent-wide trends suggest from the blatantly pro-government elec- took advantage of the unexpected spike in dan genocide and more recently blood reasons to hope that they are. toral commission and biased state TV land values. New productive sectors, like diamonds and mass amputations in Sierra coverage. As the government looked the same-day cut flower exports to Europe, Leone. Africa ranked lowest in the world ub-Saharan Africa has become much other way, tens of thousands of Kikuyu employed tens of thousands of workers. in just about every economic and social Smore democratic since 1991, and this families were driven off their land in the Like a fever that had suddenly broken, the indicator, including public health, as one change has brought new faces into power Rift Valley by Kalenjin youth militias, may / june 2 0 0 8 NEW DEMOCRACY FORUM which saw (and continue to see) the Rift stealing and one is unlikely to return to Valley as Kalenjins’ ancestral homeland GDP Per Capita a plum MP post. Africa’s recent gains and birthright. Sub-Saharan Africa Overall and Kenya (1960 - 2006) in both political freedom and economic Kenya held another national election growth could be connected. in 2007. But this time the political oppo- sition—led by long-time dissident Raila 700 s important as Africa’s internal politi- Odinga, himself imprisoned for over eight SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Acal and social changes may be, global years without trial by Moi—was leading KENYA economic conditions have also been criti- opinion polls over the now-incumbent Ki- 600 cal, and in recent years nothing has been baki, who came to power when Moi finally more salient than China’s rise as an eco- stepped down. Political coverage in flour- 500 nomic force. ishing independent newspapers, on radio, China’s miracle—from rice paddies television, and the Internet was exhilarat- to mag-lev trains in one generation—af- ing and no-holds-barred. Peaceful protests 400 fects Africa in multiple ways. The first is were ubiquitous. As the incumbent party through international trade. Total Asia- faced probable defeat in a second consecu- Africa trade increased to more than $100 300 tive election, Kenya was starting to look billion dollars in 2006 from trivial levels a like a real democracy. decade earlier, and China has been part- GDP PER CAPITA But things did not work out the way Constant 2005 USD 200 ner to much of that gain. Rising com- they were supposed to. After Odinga modity prices are a big part of the story. moved ahead in the early election re- Global commodity prices for petroleum, turns, Kenya’s Electoral Commission de- 100 minerals, and agricultural products have layed vote counting for two days before soared over the past five years as surg- producing vote tallies that unexpectedly 0 ing Asian demand meets limited world put President Kibaki in the lead. Many 1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 2005 supplies. international observers, and even the Source: World Bank Development Indicators 2007 Crude oil is the best-known example. Commission’s own head, claimed rigging Its price has more than tripled since 2000, was the cause: in some of Kibaki’s Kikuyu depositing many more dollars in the cof- strongholds, the president received tens of Political Rights fers of the big African producers like Ni- thousands more votes than the total num- Sub-Saharan Africa Overall and Kenya (1973 - 2006) geria, Angola, Sudan, and Gabon. The ber of registered voters. petroleum for Asian factories and urban The result was massive opposition commuters has to come from somewhere, protests suppressed, often violently, by po- 1 and Africa is filling the gaps. lice. The post-election anger also provided SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA But oil is not Africa’s only significant a political opening for renewed Kalenjin- KENYA export. The per-unit price of copper, Kikuyu clashes in the multiethnic Rift 2 used in factories and construction eve- Valley, the products of a dispute that had rywhere, soared from about $70 to $350 largely been on ice since the mid-1990s but between June 2001 and June 2007, a boon was never settled. Hundreds of thousands 3 to Zambia, Africa’s largest producer. Ke- of Kenyans of all ethnic groups, but dis- nya and its East African neighbors have proportionately Kikuyus, were driven out benefited from coffee’s rise. Prices have of their homes after the election. A coun- 4 been frothy, jumping from $41 per unit try lauded globally for hosting its troubled in 2001 to $113 in 2007. This increase neighbors’ refugees—from Ethiopia, So- puts more money in the pockets of coffee malia, Sudan, and Uganda—suddenly had 5 farmers, many of whom are smallholders. its own refugee camps. Kenya’s success was The consensus is that hungry Chinese apparently far more fragile than it seemed consumers are behind a big chunk of all even six months ago. 6 these rising prices. While its Freedom House rating is sure Gains in key export sectors sometimes to worsen following the rigged election, help people who are not growing coffee or FREEDOM HOUSE POLITICAL RIGHTS INDEX some of Kenya’s recent democratic gains 7 mining copper themselves. For instance, remain robust, as evidenced by the bois- 1973 78 83 88 93 98 2003 Kenya’s Busia is not a coffee-producing terous new opposition media that openly Source: Freedom House region, but it still benefits from higher challenged the results, the mass opposition coffee prices. As coffee producers in rallies, and the fact that Odinga’s opposi- central Kenya get richer, they buy more tion party, despite losing the presidency, Foreign Aid Per Capita of Busia’s fish and plantains, and also did manage to win control of parliament Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and China (1960 - 2005) more Ugandan goods, sending ever more and force Kibaki to share power. These trucks (and truckers) laden with imports changes have been made possible by a through the border city. new generation of Kenyan civil-society 50 While rising demand for commodi- leaders, journalists, and anti-corruption ties is one way that Asia’s economic boom SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA campaigners who will not allow a return INDIA helps to raise African living standards, to one-party rule. CHINA China’s economic involvement in Africa Are Africa’s democratic reforms a 40 now goes far beyond arms-length imports partial explanation for its encouraging and exports. Chinese firms have begun recent economic performance? Nobel investing directly in African oil and min- Prize–winning economist Amartya Sen eral producers and in roads, dams, and has famously described how democ- 30 telecommunications infrastructure. It racy improved the Indian government’s is estimated that annual Chinese foreign economic policies and, in particular, its direct investment in Africa surpassed response to famines. Although it is im- 20 the one billion dollar mark in 2005 and possible to prove a causal link, there are has continued to rise since. Shuttered good conceptual reasons to believe that factories and mines have been brought democracy can sometimes play midwife back to life and severed roads restored. larrabee to economic rebirth. Democratic elec- 10 The spread of cell phone technology has
tions force politicians to be more recep- brad allowed rural African grain markets to
by tive to voters’ needs: a free press means function more efficiently, probably im- OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PER CAPITA OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE government policies are scrutinized and Constant 2005 USD proving the lives of consumers, farmers, 0 malfeasance investigated, and elections 1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 2005 and traders alike. provide discipline for even the most venal Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development No one knows the exact figures, but or incompetent politicians. Get caught hundreds of thousands of Chinese work- illustrations
BOSTON REVIEW is it africa’s turn? ers and entrepreneurs have also migrated opening of rich country markets could to Africa in search of their fortunes. This have even more profound benefits. Yet new Afro-Chinese community—from here China’s growing economy creates telecom engineers to owners of small Grace tough competition for Africa. The 2005 Asian restaurants and medicine shops— expiration of the Multi-Fiber Agree- has been a striking new presence in my In the city spring burns its way out ment, which ended most textile and ap- own recent travels in both West and East parel quotas worldwide, allowed China’s Africa. of me any way it can. Mother, I’ve made low-cost factories to compete freely with Why have Chinese individuals and a list of all the lovely things you’ve done other textile producers for the first time, firms dived in when European and U.S. for me so I can remember when I leave you. and China’s share of rich-country mar- investors have largely shied away? In dis- The tiny fields of mandrake, the violet lawn kets has surged. Africa’s textile produc- cussions with Chinese investors, it seems ers have been among the main losers, the key motive is simple: profit. Africa pro- of hawkweed where the deer stares and many of AGOA’s initial gains have vides bountiful profit opportunities across with enormous splayed ears. Up high along eroded. multiple economic sectors for Chinese the cliff live the animals with spikes who climb The noncompetitiveness of African firms flush with cash from their bound- the hickory trees. I could go anytime now textiles is emblematic of a broader failure less growth at home. Chinese investors also of the recent economic expansion. While have a major advantage over their West- and it would not be about the afterlife. natural resource and some agricultural ern counterparts in that they know how I will not be limited to truth. My mouth exports have grown, industrial transfor- to make money in a developing–country will be hard against your forehead. mation is not driving Africa’s growth: in business environment where the rule of most African countries, the manufactur- law is optional, corruption and bribery ing sector remains as small today as it was are the norm, and infrastructure is patchy. —Desirée Alvarez in 2000. Their experiences at home give them a big leg up on the competition. he role of foreign aid is one of the But the importing of Chinese busi- Tmost contentious issues in devel- ness practices along with Chinese direct opment economics today. Champions of investment is not wholly positive for Af- sanctions have only strengthened China’s economic turnaround going, reducing foreign aid like Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia rica. Take the example of Zambia’s de- bargaining position vis-à-vis Khartoum agricultural subsidies to our domestic University claim that dramatically boost- crepit Chambishi mine, bought out by by eliminating the potential competition, cotton farmers would be an obvious start- ing foreign aid is the key to breaking poor a Chinese state-owned enterprise and boosting their profits. ing-point. regions like sub-Saharan Africa out of reopened in 2003 to great fanfare. Local Sudan is not the only oil producer Recent history suggests that unilat- their “poverty traps,” situations in which support for the project quickly evapo- receiving no-strings-attached Chinese eral trade liberalization by rich countries countries’ own poverty prevents them rated when brutal labor conditions came investment and aid. Angola and Chad can make a difference. In 2000 the United from bootstrapping their way to a better to light: workers were given inadequate are two other recipients with question- States enacted the African Growth and future. Sachs’ position is that a large aid safety equipment, paid below the national able human rights credentials and some Opportunity Act (AGOA), which re- infusion will provide poor Africans with minimum wage, and denied days off—ba- of the world’s worst corruption. Given duced tariff rates and lifted quotas on enough spare cash to save, invest, and fi- sically, working conditions similar to what these countries’ unscrupulous leaders and African textiles. It is credited with spur- nally grow on their own. many Chinese mine workers face. Per- repressive politics, it is unclear whether ring textile production in a few African Opponents of increased foreign aid, haps in part due to disregard for worker expanded oil production will yield higher countries, including Kenya. A broader led by Bill Easterly at NYU, point to the safety, more than fifty workers died in a living standards any time soon. serious 2005 accident that shut down the Leaving controversial cases like these Zambian mine. aside for the moment, China’s economic A U.S. or U.K. firm with such an ap- rise has clearly benefited many millions of The Age of Impeachment palling safety record would probably face Africans, especially through growing trade American Constitutional Culture since 1960 investigations, protests, or even boycotts and higher global commodity prices. And David E. Kyvig back home, and the bad PR would likely the billions in Chinese investment cur- push it to improve working conditions. rently pouring into Africa hold out the “This is an extraordinarily well written, deeply researched, and judicious account of the uses and misuses of impeach- Recall the uproar when awful conditions possibility of better infrastructure and ment over the past 40-odd years. An excellent—and in Nike’s Asian factories came to light. industrial development in the long run: timely—history.”—James T. Patterson, author of Restless But Chinese firms are not subject to the in 2007, China committed another $20 Giant: The United States from Watergate to Bush v. Gore same scrutiny as their Western counter- billion to finance trade and infrastructure “Time and time again, Kyvig unearths or spotlights parts with respect to worker, environ- development throughout Africa. previously ignored if not undiscovered material. But, as mental, and human rights issues. The Beyond the rise of China, access to with any good history, it is the stories he tells that often repressive political environment in the rich-country markets for agricultural ex- rivet the reader. An outstanding and invaluable book. Its People’s Republic ensures that Chinese ports is a key issue for African economies. readership should be wide and deep.”—Michael J. firms never have to say they’re sorry, and In the past, the United States, European Gerhardt, author of The Federal Impeachment Process they thus have a far freer hand than West- Union, and Japan have forcibly opened 496 pages, 19 illustrations, Cloth $34.95 erners to squeeze profits out of African foreign markets to “free trade” in sectors workers. While the Chambishi copper where those wealthy economies have the Attack Politics mine eventually reopened, the belief that competitive edge, while subsidizing their Chinese investment brings slave-labor own inefficient farmers with hundreds Negativity in Presidential Campaigns since 1960 conditions remains widespread in Zam- of billions of dollars each year and using Emmett H. Buell Jr. and Lee Sigelman bia. Some have begun to ask whether Chi- tariffs and quotas to keep foreign agricul- “In this remarkable book Buell and Sigelman provide not nese investment is worse than no foreign ture off our dinner tables. This is one of only the most systematic treatment of negative investment at all, as it seems increasingly the most hypocritical of all international campaigning, but also the best account yet written of the out of step with Africans’ democratic as- trade injustices but also one that seems development of the modern presidential campaign. Both pirations. impervious to reform efforts. political scientists and practitioners will want to have this Even more controversially, Chinese Cotton is an extreme example of how work ready at hand in their library; it is the indispensable investors have taken the lead tapping into rich-country policies hinder African ‘bible’ on the subject.”—James W. Ceaser, coauthor of Red over Blue: The 2004 Elections and American Politics Sudan’s rich crude oil reserves. Western economic development. In recent years, energy firms have shunned the Khartoum 25,000 U.S. cotton farmers have received “A ‘must read for all scholars studying negative campaigns, regime as punishment for its support for more than $3 billion a year in government but also for students of political communication, democratic deliberation, and campaign strategy more generally.’” the janjaweed militias that have massa- subsidies. The resulting surge in U.S. pro- —Richard Lau, author of Negative Campaigning cred thousands of civilians in Darfur and duction floods global markets and drives displaced millions more. This has left down world cotton prices, hurting millions 366 pages, 63 tables, 18 figures, Cloth $34.95 the oil playing field to the Chinese alone, of poor cotton farmers in Benin, Burkina and they have responded by supplying Faso, Mali, and Tanzania, for whom higher the Sudanese government critical mili- cotton prices would improve living stan- University Press of Kansas tary assistance and diplomatic support at dards. If U.S. policymakers are genuinely 785-864-4155 • Fax 785-864-4586 • www.kansaspress.ku.edu the United Nations. Ironically, Western interested in keeping Africa’s current may / june 2 0 0 8 NEW DEMOCRACY FORUM fact that Africa remains desperately poor a full order of magnitude higher in Africa economic growth in the 1980s to that appear that we should look to foreign aid to today despite the hundreds of billions than in China or India, as it was during in the 1990s. At the tail end of the Cold explain the key turning points in African of dollars of aid that have already been the critical 1980-2000 period when those War, levels of foreign aid to Africa were economic growth performance. routed there. In other words, if there re- Asian countries moved forward economi- at historical highs, as the United States These patterns certainly do not mean ally was a poverty trap, the foreign aid cally and Africa declined. There is no and the Soviet Union each plied countries that all foreign aid is useless. There are already donated provided ample oppor- doubt that foreign aid is not necessary with cash to win their diplomatic sup- many aspects of human wellbeing—in tunity for Africans to break themselves for economic development. port in that grand struggle. Yet foreign education and healthcare, for instance— out of it. Another issue is that foreign aid to aid to Africa fell off a cliff—by nearly 50 that are affected by foreign aid but do not Many social science researchers have Africa increased in the 1980s precisely percent—between 1990 and 1995, when show up in short-run national income fig- sought to establish foreign aid’s causal when its economies started to collapse. African countries lost their geopolitical ures. The recent international campaign impacts on economic growth, but there You might wonder if foreign aid caused significance. What was the impact of this to fund anti-retroviral drugs is a dramatic are still no definitive statistical answers. the collapse, but that probably would be sudden change, driven mainly by external example, and it has already saved thou- Yet a look at the raw data on foreign aid inaccurate. Increased foreign aid flows political factors rather than in reaction sands of African lives. Foreign aid can across regions and time suggests that aid could have been a response to the deterio- to internal economic performance, on sometimes improve lives today without has probably played a rather small role in rating economic circumstances. But this African economies? You could think of changing the bottom line or stimulat- Africa’s recent economic success. sort of concern makes it very difficult to this kind of sharp, unexpected change as ing the economy as a whole. However, The first instructive comparison is understand foreign aid’s impact. Foreign a natural experiment. the lack of correspondence between aid Africa versus the world’s two other poor aid can affect economic growth but it also A close look at trends in African GDP and growth should make us more skep- giants, China and India, both of which reacts to local economic conditions, and per capita indicates that average African tical about simplistic claims that boost- were at African per capita income levels disentangling causes and effects in the economic performance remained pretty ing foreign aid alone will break Africa in the 1970s. It is striking how high for- statistics is hard. much the same throughout the 1990s— out of its persistent poverty and lead to eign aid to Africa currently is in per capita A more promising way to get ana- stable stagnation, if you like—despite the sustained economic progress. Healthy terms: overseas development assistance is lytical leverage is to compare African sudden aid drop off. Once again it does not skepticism about foreign aid’s benefits is particularly appropriate in countries where corruption remains widespread and much of whatever aid does arrive will RUTGERS be squandered. UNIVERSITY PRESS Turning the Page in Publishing iolence lies just below the surface of Vpolitics in poor countries and can de- I think they’re on to something important. . . . Millennial Makeover rail economic gains. As Kenya illustrates, “will be read with pleasure by Democrats and should be read with careful, sub-Saharan Africa is no exception. In fact, worried attention by Republicans. African countries have suffered the great- —Wall Street Journal est number of armed conflicts in the world ” over the past three decades: 70 percent have experienced at least one year of armed con- Millennial Makeover flict since 1980. The damage tends to spill MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics over into neighboring countries. Kenya’s MORLEY WINOGRAD AND MICHAEL D. HAIS January 2008 political turmoil shut down the Kisumu-Busia highway, temporarily “According to the authors of Millennial Makeover, change is indeed on its way, and the cutting off oil supplies into Uganda. magnitude of that change will be monumental—a tectonic realignment of the sort that occurs about every four decades, leading to a fundamental shift in policy priorities and The past few years have seen some op- voter coalitions.” timistic trends on the conflict front, but —Michiko Kakutani, New York Times overall it is a mixed bag. The good news “There’s more insight, provocative thinking, and eye-opening connections in this original and is that several of the most stubborn civil optimistic account than you’ll fi nd in a month of political chat on the tube—or maybe a year.” wars—including those in Angola, Libe- —Ronald Brownstein, political director, Atlantic Media ria, and Sierra Leone—have finally come “Here is an insightful—and provocative—look at the future of American politics. It will to an end since 2000, and the conflict in delight some people and startle others—but it will leave no one unmoved.” northern Uganda is moving toward reso- —David S. Broder, The Washington Post lution. Post-Apartheid South Africa has LISTEN TO A PODCAST “Millennial Makeover builds a strong case for how today’s rising generation is poised to avoided a political explosion, at least for WITH THE AUTHORS AT become a political powerhouse . . . and how this could unfold.” the time being. RUTGERSPRESS.RUTGERS.EDU/ACATALOG/ —Neil Howe and William Strauss, authors of Generations: The History of America’s Future, And the postwar recoveries in many 1584-2069 MILLENNIAL_MAKEOVER.HTML African countries such as Mozambique Cloth $24.95 and Uganda show that some economies can quickly overcome the toxic legacies of armed strife. In the cases of Sierra Leone A cultural analysis so smart, supple, and frisky that it instantly and Uganda, there are signs that the civil stands as required reading for every aspiring critic in the country. “ war has not permanently demoralized sur- —Slate ” vivors. In fact, experiencing conflict’s hor- rors seems to give some people the will to Strange Bedfellows strive for a better society. Chris Blattman’s How Late-Night Comedy Turns Democracy into a Joke field research among former Ugandan child soldiers finds that those abducted by the RUSSELL L. PETERSON rebels are actually more politically engaged “Zesty and contentious and sophisticated . . . part of the fun of Strange Bedfellows is matching today than those who escaped, while my up your own likes and dislikes with the author’s.” work with John Bellows shows that mem- —Louis Bayard, Salon bers of Sierra Leonean households that “Ever since cable TV exposed American journalism as a niche entertainment genre, come dians suffered violence are more likely to vote, have rushed in to grab responsibility for safeguarding American democracy. With Letterman, participate in community meetings, and Leno, Stewart, Colbert, Maher, Kimmel and the other witty white boys of the night delivering contribute to local school projects than their the news, it was just a matter of time before comedy reviewers caught on and accepted their new role as postmodern metajournalists. But don’t take my word for it; read Russell Peterson’s neighbors who were spared direct violence. Strange Bedfellows.” These findings highlight the incredible re- —David Marc, author of Television in the Antenna Age silience of African households. 15 illustrations • Cloth $24.95 Despite these success stories, the total proportion of African countries engaged in ongoing armed conflicts has not budged, rutgerspress.rutgers.edu remaining near 30 percent since 1995, as Available wherever books are sold new conflicts, such as Côte d'Ivoire’s, take RUTGERS UNIVERSITY PRESS For alerts and discounts, subscribe to RU Reading? the place of the old ones and old conflicts Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey restart (Niger).
10 BOSTON REVIEW is it africa’s turn?
The gravest threats, in my view, are Medicaid, the largest U.S. social program the armed conflicts in Congo and Sudan, providing health care for poor families, E < N = I F D Africa’s largest countries, bordering a covers only 13 percent of the population.) 9 F JK FE I < M @ < N 9 F F B J combined total of fifteen other nations. In those difficult years, DRP helped pre- African civil wars also have a history of serve social stability by keeping rural pov- eclipsing national frontiers: the Liberian erty and income inequality in check. civil war led to Sierra Leone’s conflict, the But Botswana’s government probably Rwanda genocide provided the spark for got its money’s worth: the country has not K?<IF8;KF; 12 BOSTON REVIEW is it africa’s turn? abroad. Remittances rank as the country’s and South Africa does not bode well for second largest source of foreign earnings, the future welfare of the continent. Half less than the gains from gold exports, but the wealth of Africa accrues to those two ‘There is economic growth, greater than those from coco. states. The last national elections in Nige- I would also draw attention to a third ria were stolen and the current president but the structures of Africa’s economic change: the movement of the continues to rule only because the courts petroleum frontier from the Middle East allow him to, fearing the chaos that a new economies remain unaltered’ to West Africa. Africa’s established oil re- election would bring. The prospect of next gimes—Gabon, Angola, Cameroon, and year’s elections in South Africa threatens Robert Bates Nigeria—have been joined by the smaller to split the governing party, sewing the states that dot its western coastline. The politics of South Africa with discord. Côte United States already imports one-quar- d’Ivoire and Kenya were once regarded as ter of its petroleum from the region. As examples of successful development in more of the West African oil fields come Africa. The one now stands divided, with into production, this fraction will rise. different zones occupied by different po- Increasing exports of oil yield major in- litical forces, and the other is teetering on creases in export earnings for the econo- civil war. All underscore the fragility of mies of Africa. peace and prosperity in Africa. While significant economically, each of As Miguel notes, peace has returned these changes is fraught with other subtle to some of the most violent portions of but important implications. Reflect on Africa. But conflict still characterizes the rise of India and China, for example. much of East and Central Africa and it has Viewed in historical perspective, imperial- broken out afresh in the Sahelian zones. ism in Africa endured but a moment. For Miguel also points out that the majority of eons, East Africa looked eastward toward governments in Africa are chosen in com- the Indian Ocean rather than northward petitive elections. But, as events in Nigeria toward Europe. Might not the re-entry of reveal, incumbents have learned how elec- Asia on the African scene represent a return tions can be managed; party competition to a “natural” configuration, in which Ke- does not imply political accountability. nya, Tanzania, or Mozambique turn first to The tragic consequences of Kenya’s last India and China and only then to London election provide further evidence that, or Paris when negotiating their futures? Re- when faced with the threat of loss of office, flect, too, on the emergence of Africa’s oil incumbents are willing to turn from peace- economies. Where oil appears, there arrive ful competition to political violence. the armed forces of the industrial states. In So, yes, things have changed. However, response to the increase in oil production I would characterize the change as one of in West Africa, the United States is now magnitude rather than character. There is extending its military reach to the region. economic growth, but much of it derives Both the growth of Asia and the increase in from primary products. The structures petroleum exports have sparked the renewal of Africa’s economies remain unaltered. of economic growth in Africa. But they also Several of the most intense conflicts have limn a new geopolitical order. ended, but others continue and new ones As we consider the myriad effects of threaten to break out. Political competition increasing African ties to Asia, it is vital has replaced authoritarian governments, to remember that economic improvement but governments have learned to rig elec- g in Africa can be fleeting. That the major tions so as to retain power. While I join portion of Africa’s wealth is lodged within Miguel in celebrating the progress that is herwi such fragile political entities as Nigeria being made, my joy is more tempered. © christopher ‘The impact of mobile technology n 1997 the Africa Economic Research enjoy the prospects of prosperity, peace, in the developing world IConsortium—a network of professional and good governance. economists, headquartered in Nairobi, but But Miguel overlooks some reasons for is staggering’ ramifying throughout Africa—launched a Africa’s new prosperity. And I am more study of the continent’s economic perfor- skeptical than he concerning the stability Ken Banks mance in the post-independence period. In of Africa’s politics and the quality of its 2007, it published the two-volume product governance. of this effort, The Political Economy of Eco- Miguel rightly notes the impact of nomic Growth in Africa, 1960 -2000. Among economic growth in India and China on dward Miguel’s examination of sub- mal development in sub-Saharan Africa, its many findings is one highly relevant Africa’s economies. He fails, however, to ESaharan Africa’s economic develop- he ignores the crucial factor of informal here: An understanding of the economics stress three other factors. ment focuses on outside influences and economic growth. African entrepreneurs of Africa requires an understanding of its One is the re-integration of South interventions as the major economic forces are discovering that the current technolog- politics. I participated in the project, and Africa—and its economy—into the Afri- affecting the region. Foreign aid, foreign ical environment enables them to remove as it was coming to an end, I asked myself: can continent. With the fall of apartheid direct investment, the colonial legacy, those shackles for themselves. They need Were we now to address Africa in the period came a surge of private capital northward and so on: each plays a significant role in not rely on a donor agency or international since the year 2000, would we find it much as South African firms invested in com- explaining the current status of the conti- trade agreement to hand them the key. changed? The answer was a resounding merce, brewing, mining, and banking else- nent. Indeed, Miguel’s focus may simply I have spent the past five years or so “Yes!” In his essay, Edward Miguel high- where in Africa. be a reflection of what has emerged over helping grassroots nonprofits in developing lights several reasons why. Africa’s emigrants have also con- the past forty or fifty years as the prevail- countries take advantage of the latest tech- Since the mid-1990s, the economies tributed to the growth of its economies. ing view of the African majority. Accord- nological revolution—the mobile phone. of Africa have grown, and all who expe- The collapse of Africa’s economies in the ing to this understanding, many Africans With penetration rates in excess of 30 per- rienced the misery of the collapses of the 1970s and 1980s led to the flight of citizens have been passive victims, or beneficiaries, cent and handset sales among the highest in 1970s will rejoice at this. Peace has re- abroad. The subsequent flow of funds from of outside initiatives, lacking the money, the world, sub-Saharan Africa is poised to turned in Liberia, Rwanda, and Sierra Le- these expatriates now contributes to the tools, and resources to release their own gain from the introduction of what is com- one; all will celebrate this change as well. continent’s prosperity. Visitors to Ghana, economic shackles. I am not sure that this monly referred to as a “leapfrogging tech- Governments in Africa now periodically for example, soon learn that the construc- story was ever true. In any case, the cur- nology”—a technology that allows devel- contest elections. As Miguel suggests, for tion in newer suburbs of Accra has, to a rent picture is very different. Moreover, oping countries to bypass inferior methods the first time in decades, Africa appears to great degree, been financed byG hanaians while Miguel provides an analysis of for- and industries in favor of more advanced may / june 2 0 0 8 13 NEW DEMOCRACY FORUM ones. Farmers are now able to access market Nigerian NGO, many Nigerians describe the growth can be found in the increasingly connected, future studies of sub-Saharan information through their phones, and bet- losing them as literally a matter of life or efficient informal sector, out of sight of gov- Africa and its economic potential will find ter information leads to higher income. Ca- death for their businesses. More widely, the ernments and economists. At the bottom of it increasingly difficult to ignore the influ- sual laborers are better able to advertise their spread of mobile phones has created signifi- the pyramid, where micro-loans of just a ence of mobile technology and the spirit services and take on more jobs because they cant casual (or informal) employment op- few dollars are a proven catalyst in helping of African entrepreneurs who capitalize spend less time waiting on street corners for portunities. For example, a recent report by people work their own way out of poverty, on it. There is little doubt that this spirit work to come their way. Unemployed youth the Uganda Communications Commission the diffusion of mobile technology has the has always been there, but perhaps it is the can receive news of job openings on their found that that country’s information com- clear potential to do the same. emergence of mobile technology that has phones, alerting them when work becomes munications technology sector, a majority As more and more people become enabled it to thrive. © available. Web-enabled mobile phones can of which is the mobile industry, officially also provide health information and ad- employs roughly 6,000 people. The infor- vice and remind people when to take their mal sector, which engages in support activi- medicine. A citizen with a mobile phone has ties, represents over 350,000. The numbers ‘It is too early to tell if Africa’s the information he or she needs to engage are monumental. If we ignore this informal more actively in civil society by monitoring sector, a considerable amount of economic time has come’ elections and helping keep governments ac- activity will be overlooked. countable. Mobile telephony and Internet Anyone who has traveled to an African also make possible early warnings of wildlife country in the past couple of years could Olu Ajakaiye threats, mitigating human-elephant conflict not have failed to notice representatives that endangers lives and livelihoods. The or analogues of these 350,000 Ugandans: impact and wide-ranging uses of mobile women selling airtime on the streets; chil- technology in the developing world are dren dodging cars at main junctions, selling t is important to explore—as Edward poor today despite hundreds of billions of nothing short of staggering. chargers and phone covers; street vendors IMiguel does—the factors responsible dollars of foreign aid. Skepticism regard- The opportunities brought by the ar- charging people’s phones for a fee; and for the contemporary growth in sub-Sa- ing the benefits of aid to countries plagued rival of mobile technologies and services mobile phone repair shops squeezing one haran Africa because we have been here by corruption is fair, but one wonders if have not gone unnoticed, particularly by last drop of life from old phones. There is before. In the first decade after indepen- this is the whole story. This view assumes those at, or uncomfortably close to, the so- also a thriving second-hand market, with dence, sub-Saharan countries recorded that there are no problems from the donor called bottom of the pyramid. There, too, stalls selling all manner of new and recycled reasonable economic growth before a mas- side. In fact, the donor community itself mobile ownership is increasing, and shared handsets. Entrepreneurs are even building sive three-decades collapse. Understand- does not share this rather one-sided view, phone and village phone schemes mean their own traveling mobile services, strap- ing today’s growth may help stem the risks as evidenced by the spirit of the 2005 Paris that those who are not yet able to afford a ping phones and spare batteries to the of a new downturn in the second decade of Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. phone of their own still have access to the fronts of bikes and seeking out business. the twenty-first century. On the issue of conflict costs and con- technology. A single village phone lady— In a much-cited 2005 study, an econo- I also believe—along with Miguel— tagion, I, for the most part, agree that the an individual who purchases a mobile mist at the London Business School con- that Africa’s recent gains in political impact on growth can be devastating. How- phone and charges neighbors for its use— cluded that an extra ten mobile phones per freedom have played a role in the latest ever, the proposition that if the economic may provide telecommunications services hundred people in a “typical developing economic successes. A growing number growth of the last seven years continues for to hundreds of people in her area. country” leads to a 0.59 percent increase in of countries operate under democratic another decade or two African economies Mobile phones have become vital to GDP per capita. The insatiable demand for governance and enjoy the associated press will be richer and more diversified and the sub-Saharan way of life. According to mobile technology generates significant tax freedoms, scrutiny of public office-hold- thus less at risk of falling into conflict has the Center for Policy and Development, a revenue for the government, but much of ers, and rule of law. Punishment for those the feel of mutatis mutandis. Can we take caught stealing at the ballot box may have for granted that diversification is in the played midwife to economic growth. offing? After all, the sub-Saharan growth And China’s contributions to new process is driven mainly by primary com- growth are not in doubt, as African coun- modities. What will ensure that growth is tries now benefit directly or indirectly from accompanied by equity, perceived or real? high commodity prices; affordable Chinese The root cause of conflicts in Africa is per- imports; growing investment, especially ceived or real economic and social inequal- in extractive industries; and, increasingly, ity. We cannot assume away the challenges development-augmenting aid packages of economic diversification and equity. To for education and health. However, Chi- sustain growth, policy makers must face na’s contributions pose certain challenges, them, and analysts must propose policies namely, how to sustain growth when pri- that can help achieve them. mary commodities continue to dominate The threat of climate change to the Africa’s output and income; the inevitable contemporary growth process is real and collapse of commodity prices as China en- urgent. But Miguel gives the impression gineers itself out of raw material–intensive that, in spite of climate change, Africa will production systems and into more knowl- remain a primary commodities producer. edge–intensive ones; and the risk of so- This explains his almost exclusive atten- called easy loans rekindling high debt in the tion to adaptation to drought through aid FACULTY RECENT VISITING WRITERS future. How can African policy makers and and research into drought-resistant crop Kyle Bass • Ryan Boudinot • Deborah Brevoort • Chris Abani • Dorothy Allison • Julia Alvarez • researchers best avoid these hazards? varieties suited for the Sahel. With this kind Rebecca Brown • Jan Clausen • Darrah Cloud • Jane Anderson • Russell Banks • Marilyn Chin • Kenny Fries • Beatrix Gates • Elena Georgiou • Nilo Cruz • Samuel R. Delaney • Christopher Miguel tucks into his discussion of of adaptation strategy, one wonders how Bhanu Kapil • Susan Kim • Michael Klein • Neil Durang • George Evans • Mary Gaitskill • China’s role the important issue of access African economies can become diversified, Landau • Aimee Liu • Jeanne Mackin • Micheline Thomas Glave • David Greenspan • Jessica to U.S., EU, and Japanese markets. This and thus less at risk of falling into conflict. I Hagedorn • Stephen Kuusisto • Dorianne Aharonian Marcom • Douglas A. Martin • John is a crucial matter that requires greater would have expected Miguel to also discuss McManus • Nicola Morris • Victoria Nelson • Laux • Deena Metzger • Rick Moody • Robert Morgan • Tracie Morris • Walter Mosley • Dael consideration. With the related Economic the kinds of support that African countries Richard Panek • Rachel Pollack • Paisley Rekdal • Orlandersmith • Grace Paley • Marie Ponsot • Rahna Reiko Rizzuto • Juliana Spahr • Darcey Partnership Arrangements (EPAs) being would need in order to pursue clean devel- Patricia Powell • David Rakoff • Claudia Steinke • Jane Wohl actively promoted by the European Union, opment. African countries must have guar- Rankine • Jose Rivera • Peter Trachtenberg • PROGRAM DIRECTOR • Paul Selig Jean Valentine • Jacqueline Woodson any discussion of Africa’s economic future anteed access to green technologies so that, warrants a serious look at whether the Eu- as their economies grow and diversify, they RESIDENCY LOCATIONS Students attend eight-day residencies in either ropean Union is friend or foe of today’s will not repeat the mistakes of advanced Vermont or Washington twice per year. Plainfield, VT June 27 - July 4, 2008 African renaissance. The EPAs may pres- countries. Sub-Saharan Africa needs sup- Port Townsend, WA July 11-18, 2008 ent challenges to sustaining the current port for creating financial and other insti- growth, challenges similar to those posed by tutional structures that will enable it to the dominance of primary commodities in develop in a climate-friendly way. China- Africa trade. Another issue Miguel It is, indeed, too early to tell if Africa’s neglects is the need for African economies time has come, but we must call for neces- to build manufacturing capacity, and hence sary action on the part of all stakeholders take advantage of access to world markets. in African development to learn from re- On the role of foreign aid, Miguel seems cent success and give the continent its best sympathetic to the view that Africa remains chance to sustain those gains. © 14 BOSTON REVIEW IS IT AFRICA’S TURN? As a result, even in rain-fed areas the re- gion has not experienced anything close to the agricultural productivity success experienced in the rest of the develop- ing world for the last 30 years. More- over, high population growth is creating an even greater need for yield increases. Large “exploitable yield gaps” (the dif- ference between yields in farmers’ fields and yields at crop research stations) exist for most staple crops, but fertilizer and water are lacking, as are critical institu- tional structures like well-functioning credit, seed, fertilizer, and product mar- kets, and methods for managing risks, particularly for smallholders. Second, the current high-price envi- ronment for essential food crops provides a powerful incentive for agricultural in- vestments in sub-Saharan Africa. But such investments will likely come from both the public and private sectors, not smallholder farmers. The latter simply do not have the resources to respond to price incentives through agricultural investments, espe- cially since their (net) food expenditures are increasing. A 2000 Michigan State study of the Zambian maize sector found that 2 percent of all farmers accounted for one half of total maize sales in the country. The other half came from 23 percent of the farmers, leaving the remaining 75 percent of maize producers consuming virtually all of their output at home. The challenge in the near term will be to design and execute g investment strategies that actually reach the poor, rather than tilting the balance herwi further toward larger farmers. Improving livelihoods of the poorest populations will require political will and a focus on equity, christopher agricultural productivity, and nutritional outcomes. Finally, with only 4 percent of the Agricultural Organization expects the an- region’s agricultural land under irriga- ‘The global food crisis exposes nual cereal import bills of most countries tion, the rural economy is likely to suffer in the region to rise by at least 75 percent significantly from climate change over the the fragility of sub-Saharan this year (compared with 56 percent for next twenty-five years and beyond, un- low-income, food-importing countries less substantial efforts are made to help economic progress’ outside the region), while import vol- farmers adapt. Higher temperatures, de- umes are projected to decline. Increased clining soil moisture, and variable rainfall Rosamond Naylor demand for domestically grown crops, will make farming more difficult in most such as sorghum and millet, is pushing areas. Miguel discusses this danger with prices up for all commodities. Food riots reference to the results of one climate have broken out in Burkina Faso, Côte model applied to the Sahel. Research- lthough the overall economic situa- tor of ten to eighteen between 1975 and d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Senegal, Maurita- ers at Stanford University conducted a Ation in sub-Saharan Africa appears 2005. Within two of the fastest growing nia, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Guinea, and more thorough analysis of climate risks to have improved in recent years, any dis- economies—oil-exporters Angola and Madagascar. In rural areas where staple for almost two dozen crops in the region. cussion about a sustained turnaround for Chad—the child mortality rates are 260 crop yields are low, soil fertility is poor, It shows that by 2030 southern African the region must consider the rural sector and 208 per 1,000, respectively, and the and market access is weak, the silent swell maize production is likely to fall by 30 and the role of agricultural development in life expectancy at birth is 41 in the former, of hunger continues to rise. Given that percent, while several other African crops improving the livelihood of the poor. Even 44 in the latter. These grim statistics are poor households already spend 60-80 (millet, cowpea, wheat) will likely fall by as better macroeconomic management comparable to those in two of the region’s percent of their incomes on staple foods, 10-15 percent. The projections mark and higher export commodity prices have slowest-growing economies, Niger and the price hikes translate directly into early warnings of change; the models in- in recent years led to per capita income Guinea-Bissau. Welfare measures in all fewer and smaller meals per day. World dicate that, by mid-century, temperature growth in several countries, the poorest of these countries could be improved Bank president Robert Zoellick projects will already be out of bounds from what rural populations—the landless or small with steady gains in rural development, that the ongoing food crisis is likely to is experienced today: the coldest years in landowners who are net consumers of particularly for small-scale farmers. But eliminate virtually all gains in poverty the future will still be warmer than the food—remain desperately poor. Accord- “steady” is not a word commonly used and hunger reduction achieved since the hottest years in the past century. ing to World Bank statistics, over half of to describe the region. The economic Millennium Development Goals were What this dramatic shift in climate sub-Saharan Africa’s rural population still growth process during the past three dec- established in 2000. means for agriculture, migration, and lives in poverty, and the depth of poverty ades has been characterized by extreme The global food crisis highlights economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is greater than in any other region of the volatility stemming from world commod- three points crucial to sub-Saharan Af- depends to a great extent on future invest- world, with many surviving on roughly ity price fluctuations, conflict, weather rica’s development process. First, inter- ments in rural development. Strategies $0.60 per day. shocks, and poor governance. Whether national and domestic investments in ag- for crop breeding programs, small-scale Economic gains throughout the re- the region can sustain prolonged and ricultural productivity for staple crops in irrigation, and risk-management schemes gion have been far from equal, with widespread economic development re- the region have been woefully inadequate for the poor need to be high on the politi- income disparities growing both be- mains to be seen. during the past few decades. In 2000 sub- cal agendas of sub-Saharan countries and tween and within countries. The gap in There is no clearer evidence of the Saharan Africa received only 6.3 percent the international community. As the pres- GDP per capita between the richest and fragility of sub-Saharan Africa’s eco- of global public expenditures and 0.2 ent food crisis sadly suggests, Africa will poorest deciles of sub-Saharan African nomic progress than the current global percent of global private expenditures on reach a sustained turnaround only when countries almost doubled from a fac- food crisis. The United Nations Food and agricultural research and development. its people can afford to eat. © MAY/JUNE 2008 15 NEW DEMOCRACY FORUM g herwi christopher low as elsewhere in the developing world. but a good deal is man-made. Sub-Saharan Family planning’s departure from the Africa, excluding South Africa, accounts international development agenda while for only 1 percent of world fertilizer use. ‘Rapid population growth fertility in Africa was still high may also Only 20 percent of the area sown in maize have played a small role. uses modern varieties, compared to more raises the stakes for Rapid population growth has produced than 50 percent in South Asia and Latin sufficient “demographic momentum” that America. Irrigation is rare (4 percent of African governments’ even if the current fertility rate declines farm land, as opposed to 37 percent in precipitously, population will continue to Asia), even where it is technically fea- David N. Weil grow quickly for several generations. In- sible. deed, the UN forecast assumes a relatively Why does a region capable of providing steep fall in fertility, from its current level for itself maintain such poor agricultural of 5.3 children per woman to 2.5 by 2050. practice? The problem lies in the economic share Edward Miguel’s cautious opti- population growth. Start with the num- If fertility does not fall so quickly, popula- and institutional arrangements that deter- Imism: the new millennium has started bers: While world population as a whole tion growth will be even higher. mine farmers’ options. African govern- out well for Africa. Democracy is mak- has grown by a factor of 2.6 since 1950, in Thus, failing some catastrophe of un- ments spent much of the post-indepen- ing steady progress, with genuinely con- Africa it grew by a factor of 4.3. In 2005, precedented proportions, Africa is going dence period creating institutions—such tested elections more common and the 753 million people lived in sub-Saharan to experience a huge increase in population as marketing boards and price controls— press increasingly free. GDP per capita Africa. The United Nations forecasts that over the next several decades. How will that disadvantaged farmers for the benefit is growing at an average rate of 3 percent between 2005 and 2050, the population of that population growth affect economic of city dwellers. Fertilizer use stagnated in per year—not East-Asian miracle levels, Africa will increase by a factor of 2.3. In development? Discussions of this issue the 1980s as governments removed subsi- but quite respectable for any developing Kenya, the country on which Miguel fo- tend to fall into one of two camps: apoca- dies in the face of massive budget deficits. country, and a sea change from the previ- cuses, population grew from 13.5 million lyptic and dismissive. The middle-ground The private sector has not filled the vac- ous several decades in Africa. Foreign in- in 1975 to 35.6 million today, and is fore- view—that rapid population growth makes uum left by the dismemberment of para- vestment is rising; inflation has dropped in cast to reach 84.8 million by 2050. development more difficult, but not im- statal—state-owned and partially state- most countries; debt has fallen; and foreign The primary reason for Africa’s possible—is surprisingly unpopular. owned—companies; facilities to advance exchange reserves have risen. High com- rapid population growth is what demog- The most obvious dimension along credit to farmers to pay for fertilizer and modity prices have been a big driver of Af- raphers call a “stalled demographic tran- which population growth will matter is seeds, and to provide insurance against bad rican growth, but there is evidence that the sition.” In the decades following World food. Africa already skates along the edge weather that would make borrowing pos- current boom is more broadly based. The War II, mortality rates on the continent of food shortage. In 2005, 29 percent of sible, have not developed. Because of its explosive growth of cell phones (from 7.5 declined rapidly as medical and public children under five were underweight. unique ecology, Africa has been unable to million users in 1999 to 100 million today), health technologies from rich countries Africa is currently a small net importer make much use of agricultural technology which are making markets more efficient rapidly diffused. Historically, and in of grain, but with food prices on interna- that raised productivity in most of the rest and alleviating Africa’s curse of bad trans- other parts of the world, such mortal- tional markets scaling new heights, food of the world, and its governments—weak portation networks, shows how technology ity declines are usually followed, within grown outside the continent is unlikely to and with other priorities—have not built and entrepreneurial innovation can radi- a generation or two, by similar declines fill many bellies. the research infrastructure necessary to cally change the economic environment. in fertility to a level commensurate with All this would be a recipe for disaster tailor crops to local conditions. Finally, rapid economic growth in the rest relatively stable population. But in Africa if Africa could not grow enough food for In addition, pressure to feed a growing of the developing world, particularly China the decline in fertility has been very slow, itself, but in fact it can. For a variety of rea- population has led to shortening of fal- and India, can only be to Africa’s advantage, with the number of children per woman sons, African agriculture is extraordinarily low periods and overgrazing, which have and not only by raising commodity prices. falling from 6.7 to 5.3 between1950 and unproductive in terms of food output degraded soil quality. The area of land As other countries get rich, there will be 2005. By contrast, fertility in Southeast relative to land and labor resources used. under cultivation has increased by 80 per- more demand for expensive sport shoes, Asia fell from 6.0 children per woman to The yield of maize—one of the region’s cent since 1960, with much of the newly and fewer people in the world poor enough 2.5 over the same period. primary food crops—per acre planted has cultivated land of marginal quality. Three to stitch them—and so the jobs (and mil- The reasons declining fertility has been unchanged in sub-Saharan Africa quarters of farmland in sub-Saharan Af- lions like them) may migrate to Africa. trailed so much behind declining mor- since 1975; over the same period yields rica has suffered significant depletion of I also agree with Miguel that politi- tality in Africa are not fully understood. more than doubled in every other region soil nutrients cal developments on the continent will be Cultural factors—including the low of the developing world. Per-acre grain The good news is that to the extent critical to determining whether current status of women—are clearly at work. yields in Kenya, which is among Africa’s that low agricultural productivity is a growth in Africa will hold: war, instability, The fact that Africa experienced a de- most productive countries, are two-thirds man-made problem, it can readily be or a return to inept governance can easily cline in mortality at a level of income the level of India, and slightly more than fixed. The Millennium Villages project stall gains for several decades. much lower than the rest of the world is half those in Mexico. has shown that providing fertilizer and But Miguel is silent on an important probably part of the story, too. Further- Some of Africa’s low agricultural pro- improved seeds to African farmers can issue affecting Africa’s economic future: more, mortality levels have not fallen as ductivity is due to climate and geography, have an enormous positive effect on ag- 16 BOSTON REVIEW BostonReview#2837:BostonReview#2837IS IT AFRICA’S TURN? 4/16/08 11:14 AM Page 1 ricultural productivity. The yield gap between typical farms and demonstration plots using best available techniques is a “Absolutely factor of three. The Alliance for a Green ‘We might ask whether Africa’s required reading.” Revolution in Africa is working to de- velop improved seeds, educate farmers, new democracies are —Lawrence Lessig and improve the distribution systems for agricultural inputs. democracies at all’ A second dimension along which population will matter is urbanization. Jeremy M. Weinstein THE FUTURE OF Africa is the least urban continent, but also the most rapidly urbanizing, with THE INTERNET— urban populations growing at 5 percent per year. Seventy percent of Africa’s ur- hile the small (but noticeable) uptick terms the “gray zone,” as “pseudo-democ- AND HOW TO ban population lives in slums, with most Win Africa’s recent economic growth racies” or “hybrid regimes.” African gov- living in improvised dwellings of scrap is not in dispute, its causes are not entirely ernments have often done the bare mini- STOP IT lumber, corrugated metal, and plastic clear. Like Miguel, I would like to believe mum to appease outside donors pressing sheeting. Terrible crowding along with a that democratic reforms deserve some for political change—holding elections, lack of sanitation and clean water make credit for this unexpected turn of events. permitting opposition parties to con- Jonathan Zittrain urban slums hotbeds for disease. And yet Most African countries today hold regu- test—while avoiding reforms that might for the majority of residents, this lifestyle lar elections, and political leaders in Africa truly level the playing field. Many African represents an improvement over the rural are significantly more likely to leave power democracies, in practice, are controlled by poverty they fled. voluntarily than through a coup, violent a single political coalition that blurs the Once again, rapid urbanization can be overthrow, or assassination. line between state and ruling party and a recipe for disaster, but it does not have Yet it has been frustratingly diffi- sees government assets as tools for en- to be. Largely a problem in governance cult for social scientists to find robust hancing its political domination. Recent and institutions, improving living stan- evidence of democracy’s economic divi- booms in commodity prices and the grow- dards in African cities requires spend- dends. Analyses of global trends often ing importance of unconditional Chinese ing on infrastructure and the political yield contradictory findings. And there is aid and investment further undermine will to grant slum dwellers ownership of disagreement both about the data and how the incentives that might induce leaders the land on which they currently squat. it should be analyzed. One recent study, to permit real political competition. And Even more significantly, urban poverty for example, suggests that the poverty-re- a closer look at Africa’s economic success will only be ameliorated by the creation ducing potential of democracies has been stories—Equatorial Guinea, Chad, An- of an institutional environment in which overstated simply because the datasets gola, and Sudan (among oil producers); private businesses can thrive. The vast researchers use tend to lack information Mozambique, Rwanda, Botswana, and number of informal enterprises present about the most successful autocratic re- Uganda (among diversified economies)— in the typical urban slum is testament to gimes. Causation is an even harder nut to should give us additional pause. In the last the entrepreneurial energy of the resi- crack, as there are compelling arguments decade, not one has experienced a peaceful dents as well as the legal environment that suggesting that economic growth spurs de- transfer of power between political parties. makes opening a formal business impos- mocracy and not vice versa. Some recent For many political scientists, alternation sible. But only formal businesses, which evidence from Africa points to increased between governing parties is the sine qua have better access to credit and can use spending on primary schools and reduc- non of democracy. “This book is fundamental. the legal system to enforce contracts, are tions in infant mortality following the A less familiar, but equally important, It will define the debate about the going to grow large enough to create jobs. democratic transitions of the early 1990s, reason for questioning the link between future of the Internet, long after The world is awash in capital that would but as the graphs in Miguel’s essay make Africa's recent progress and democrati- readily flow to Africa to take advantage of clear, recent increases in GDP per capita zation is the fact that democratic politics we haven’t stopped it.” abundant cheap labor, if there were good have come nearly ten years after the wave can have its own pathologies, patholo- —Lawrence Lessig governance. Low corruption and rule of of political reforms began. gies that are especially apparent in weak law are crucial. The absence of convincing evidence democracies. In highly diverse societ- Rapid population growth will make linking democracy to economic growth ies—and Africa is composed of the most “A superb and alarming good governance harder to achieve. It is surprising. One would expect societies ethnically heterogeneous countries in the discussion, from one of the puts great strain on government finance, with democratic processes to better police world—democratic competition is often most astute and forward-looking as schools and infrastructure must be the behavior of politicians and bureaucrats, reduced to an ethnic headcount. Parties analysts of the Internet. Zittrain provided for ever more people. More di- thereby ensuring more responsible policy are mobilized along ethnic lines, as groups explains how the glorious rectly, higher population exacerbates land choices. Societies in which a greater share compete with one another for control of scaracity, which is a potentially explosive of the population plays a role in selecting the state budget. As we saw so tragically in promise of the Internet might issue. Land shortages are thought to have leaders should also have policies that are Kenya in December, politicians can suc- not be realized—and points the been one of the preconditions for the more broadly beneficial. The story is plau- cessfully exploit simmering ethnic tension way toward reducing the horrific ethnic violence that exploded in sible, and I am still prepared to believe it, to consolidate support, even when their current risks.” Rwanda and Burundi in the mid-1990s, but there is reason to suspect that Africa’s performance in office would hardly merit —Cass Sunstein and the recent post-election violence in recent economic good fortune has little to re-election. Kenya was driven by politicians exploit- do with democratization. Moreover, democratic transitions are, ing a widespread sense of injustice regard- We might ask ourselves whether by definition, unstable—a fact that might “Zittrain does what no one ing the distribution of land. Urbanization Africa’s new democracies are, in fact, account for the stubborn persistence of has before—he eloquently may also hinder the establishment of good democracies at all. Many observers of civil war in Africa, even during a decade governance. Urban slums, lawless to begin African politics were too hasty in credit- of substantial political liberalization. War and subtly pinpoints the magic with, and well stocked with young men ing countries with having transitioned to scares off foreign investors, distorts the that makes Wikipedia, and the who have little to lose, are potential flash- democracy, simply because those coun- economy, and undermines incentives for Internet as a whole, work. points for political violence, as was the tries held elections. In 2002 Thomas good public policy and domestic invest- The best way to save the case in Kenya. Carothers famously penned an epitaph ment. Democracy can only bridge deep Internet is to turn off your Neither food shortage nor urbaniza- for the “transition paradigm,” critiquing social and economic divides when people laptop until you’ve read this tion need spell disaster for Africa, but they the long-dominant notions in aid circles have faith that government institutions raise the stakes for the performance of Af- that any move away from dictatorship is serve interests beyond those of the group book.”—Jimbo Wales rican governments. If governments tack a move toward democracy, transitions that temporarily inhabits office. back toward old dysfunctional ways, they unfold in a sequence that inevitably re- I do not raise the question of whether A Caravan Book: are unlikely to head off catastrophe. Po- sults in democracy, and that elections are we can truly credit Africa’s recent eco- www.caravanbooks.org litical violence will scare away the foreign determinative in bringing about a demo- nomic success to its democratic progress donors who are investing in the future of cratic political order. in order to rebut the general importance of African agriculture, as well as the foreign Reality looks much messier. The ma- liberal institutions for growth. But, given 1 9 0 8 – 2 0 0 8 trade and capital required to provide jobs jority of countries that initiated elections the state of African democracy, it seems University Press yalebooks.com for urban slum dwellers. © in the early 1990s are in what Carothers more likely that rising commodity prices YALE MAY/JUNE 2008 17 NEW DEMOCRACY FORUM and increasing Chinese aid and investment More broadly, efforts to shed light on are doing much of the work. This may rep- the behavior of governments and inform resent good news in the short term (and voters are yielding real benefits. Uganda the World Bank has trumpeted it as such), has been an important laboratory. Greater but the danger is that Africa’s development transparency in public expenditures has miracle will be short-lived. Only a firmer led to a dramatic increase in the share of institutional foundation can sustain it. government revenue allocated to educa- Democracy can create the conditions tion that has actually made its way to the for development, but only when its pro- schools. Community-based monitoring tectors (and strongest advocates)—the of government health centers has in- voters—are in a position to observe how spired higher quality care. And efforts to politicians behave and choose to replace inform voters about what their Members them if they fail to deliver. The good of Parliament do are radically changing news is that it is becoming increasingly politicians’ incentives to be active in the difficult for ruling parties to hang on to legislature. power unfairly. Mechanisms that generate Decades of dictatorship coincided transparency—such as access to media, with a period of economic decline and cell phones, and the Internet—are mak- stagnation in Africa. That the Amins, ing a huge difference. Exit polling sent Mobutus, and Bokassas now inhabit only strong signals to the opposition in Kenya the pages of history books may be bearing that they had actually won the election. some fruit, as Miguel argues. But the ex- The public posting of precinct results in tent of institutional reform should not be Zimbabwe—a key concession won by the overstated; more work remains to be done. Movement for Democratic Change in pre- As greater transparency and more credible election negotiations—provided the basis institutions are established, perhaps the for its candidate’s claim to have defeated economic dividends of democracy will no Robert Mugabe. longer be so difficult to uncover. © ‘Elections themselves need not force leaders to serve the public good’ g herwi Smita Singh christopher dward Miguel suggests several reasons creating incentives for the efficient alloca- cal to the continent’s economic future. late them from shifts in weather patterns. Eto be hopeful about Africa’s economic tion and use of public resources. Whether Africa’s current commodity Therefore, equitable economic growth is prospects and a few causes for concern. Scrutiny of budget allocations, track- boom is harnessed for long-term devel- urgently needed to arm the world’s poor- One in each category, democratic gover- ing of actual expenditures, and the moni- opment or simply leads to a repeat of the est people with the resources to adapt to nance and climate change, deserve further toring and evaluation of service delivery dismal economic performance that fol- climate change. elaboration. are vital watchdog functions for inde- lowed the commodity boom of the mid- Researchers are now recognizing that First, democratic governance. Miguel pendent civil society organizations, the 1970s will depend in part on the checks equitable development and adaptive ca- rightfully lauds the almost continent-wide media, parliaments, and executive audit and balances Africans establish to con- pacity for coping with climate change movement toward greater democratiza- agencies. Consider the benefits. In one strain the management of revenues and actually rely on a common set of condi- tion. Despite Kenya’s recent electoral case, comparative cost surveys carried out expenditures. tions. Unless this complementarity be- setbacks, Miguel is right that “opposition by a policy research organization across Second, climate change. In what is tween equitable development and adaptive parties are ubiquitous and open debate municipalities in an Indian state high- surely one of the most troubling ironies of capacity is widely understood, there is a the norm in a growing number of Afri- lighted the differential costs of public our time, the people who have contributed risk that additional financing for climate can countries.” But reaping the economic services, spurring bureaucrats in high- the least to climate change will suffer the adaptation could displace investments in fruits of democratization will require cost towns to lower their procurement most from its effects. Although rich coun- economic growth and poverty reduction. more than multiparty elections. Elections costs. Successful fulfillment of these tries have caused the problem with decades This would be a huge mistake, since the in and of themselves need not force lead- important watchdog functions requires of greenhouse-gas emissions, developing key is to build the capacity of societies to ers to be responsive to the public good; transparency. countries are the most vulnerable. Many adapt to and mitigate climate change over electoral competition can drive political Of course, it is easier to set up elec- African countries will be hit especially the longer term. parties into patronage instead. Scholars tions than effective public accountabil- hard, as Miguel points out. If you care about poverty in Africa, studying African politics are divided on ity mechanisms. Indeed, donors have According to the April 2007 report of you can’t ignore the impact of climate whether democracy is beneficial to Afri- traditionally spent much more money the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, and if you care about climate can economies. and time focusing on the development of Change (IPCC), the poor will bear the change, you can’t ignore economic de- Miguel argues that, on balance, de- elections than other techniques for pub- brunt of climate risks. The IPCC report velopment in Africa. It is therefore im- mocracy has been good for Africa. But if lic scrutiny. Our collective knowledge of concludes that “even the most stringent perative to tackle both of these challenges elections are not sufficient to consolidate how to build a system of checks and bal- mitigation efforts cannot avoid further simultaneously. However, this is not hap- the political, social, and economic gains of ances, which are necessarily context de- impacts of climate change in the next few pening. Poorly thought-out biofuels poli- democracy, then what is? What more does pendent, lags far behind our knowledge decades, which makes adaptation essen- cies pushed by some environmentalists Africa need? The answer lies in transpar- in other areas. Research devoted to im- tial.” Miguel suggests tailored drought have helped spark a world food crisis, ency and accountability mechanisms that proving efficiency and reducing corrup- insurance mechanisms and agricultural while not doing much, it turns out, to provide checks and balances, particularly tion in public works projects, for example, research as two necessary adaptation mitigate climate change once land-use in regard to public spending. is helping us get beyond simple notions measures. changes are taken into account. A similar Public spending often determines of community monitoring as the best or I couldn’t agree more, but there is a harmful potential exists for other climate whether democracy delivers for the aver- only means for achieving public account- larger point to be made: one of the key de- policy proposals that fail to account for age citizen. Are roads built so she can get ability. But more investment in learning terminants of a society’s capacity to adapt secondary effects. Unless we consider the her crop to market? Are textbooks avail- which accountability mechanisms work to climate change is access to resources. development consequences of our policy able in the school for her children? Is the best under which circumstances would For example, smallholder farmers lack solutions, not only will Africa’s poor face local health clinic staffed? It’s not just a be well worth making. the resources to invest in basic adaptation the worst effects of climate change, but matter of attention-grabbing corruption We should not pretend that trans- measures—such as improved irrigation the worst effects of the policy interven- and malfeasance, but more importantly of parency and accountability are not criti- and fertilization—that would better insu- tions too. © 18 BOSTON REVIEW is it africa’s turn? ‘Foreign aid can strengthen governments’ Rachel Glennerster he soft winds of the Indian Ocean and trade since 2000. But it would be wrong to Tthe view from the cliffs overlooking conclude that further price rises of agricul- Maputo would be enough to make anyone tural products, which would likely follow a fall in love with southern Africa. But my cut in rich country agricultural subsidies, trip to Mozambique in 2001 (and my sub- would necessarily benefit Africa. While sequent work there) did much more than sub-Saharan Africa is a net exporter of cot- that—it made me an optimist about Africa. ton, it is a net importer of basic food stuffs Peace, democracy, market-friendly policies, such as maize and wheat, which means that, and investment and trade with South Africa on average, it gains from rich country sub- pope had already led to nine years of impressive sidies on these products. growth. The prospects for the future looked Miguel concludes that aid can explain even better—much of Mozambique’s offi- neither Africa’s growth, which picked up in charles cial debt was about to be cancelled, foreign the mid-90s and accelerated around 2000, investment was flooding in, and export nor its improved democratic or educational projections were spectacular. As of writing, institutions, because aid first fell and then Mozambique has enjoyed fifteen years of 8- rose during the 1990s and 2000s. But this percent-per-year growth and a sharp reduc- claim misses the dramatic change in aid- ‘There is a simple process tion in poverty. Even more encouragingly, distribution philosophy that took root dur- the list of African countries experiencing ing that period. During the Cold War, aid at work: Africa is learning from sustained growth is lengthening. was often used to support “our” despots Edward Miguel discusses some of the no matter how bad their policies. The dra- its mistakes’ potential reasons for the upswing in growth matic fall in aid in the 1990s in part reflects and warns that conflict, which continues cutting off those dictators. Donors became Paul Collier to devastate important regions of the con- more selective about whom they would sup- tinent, could all too easily shatter these port and tied aid in countries like Kenya to hopeful trends. Making generalizations moves towards democracy and control of about a continent as large and diverse as corruption. Is it not at least possible that dward Miguel is an astute observer considers commodity booms an impor- Africa is perilous, but some trends do shine this “housecleaning” supported or even Eof Africa. I particularly admire his tant factor. Indeed, in the short term a through. Miguel focuses on improvements triggered some of the moves to democracy combination of insights from fieldwork country exporting commodities in high in democracy and terms of trade, and points observed shortly afterwards? Democractic with an analysis of the big picture, but demand cannot help but grow. The issue to the influence of Chinese investment. He advancements in turn have helped deliver let me try to offer something more use- is whether the revenues can be harnessed is somewhat dismissive of the role aid has the improvements in access to education ful than praise. for something sustainable. Most African played and calls for reductions in agricul- Miguel points to, as politicians discover I wrote The Bottom Billion in 2005. governments failed to do so during the tural subsidies to further improve African that voters find abolishing fees for primary Given the lags in economic data, it was last commodity booms of the 1970s. The terms of trade. I, too, will focus on China, health and education attractive. only possible to track African economic vital task for Africa now is avoiding a rep- trade, and aid, issues on which I have a It is easy to point to the ongoing cor- performance until around 2002, so the etition of history. somewhat different take. ruption scandals and vote rigging in Kenya millennium was a natural place to draw But the growth we are seeing today Chinese investment in Africa has been as evidence of the failure of this policy, but the line. As Miguel’s chart of income is not just a result of commodity booms. celebrated for reducing the influence of old would we (or, more importantly, would shows, the early cut off misses some- I don’t think that is the key to Kenya’s colonial powers, and feared as the start of Kenyans) prefer to return to the days when thing important: since the turn of the pre-election economic success. There is a new debt spiral. But China’s increasing criticism of government or mention of millennium, there has been a boom at the a process at work that does not depend on economic presence in Africa may be more AIDS were barred in the press, as was the bottom. Obviously, the key question is democracy and is so simple that analysts notable for its suddenness than its size. And case when I first visited Kenya in 1986? Let whether this marks a real break with past generally miss it: learning from mistakes. sudden changes in flows of investment are us not fall into the trap of equating lack of trends or a blip. Since 1970 African societies have accu- often not sustained for long periods. Before complete success with failure, as is com- I rather doubt that the wave of de- mulated a huge stock of experience in how we get carried away about Chinese invest- mon in the discussions of aid. mocratization has driven the economic not to manage an economy. For example, ment it is worth noting that the entire stock How big a factor in Africa’s success was turnaround. I would dearly like to believe from the mid-1970s until the mid-1980s of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) the release of aid from the political con- that it has, but Africa’s democracies basi- Tanzania adopted regulatory policies that in Africa in 2005 was just one tenth of the straints of the Cold War? It is impossible to cally amount to elections without checks proved to be ruinous. The knowledge flow of new FDI from the United Kingdom say because it coincided with a recognition and balances. The inevitable happens: they gained through failure is valuable. into Africa the previous year. within African governments that planning incumbents use the opportunity of free- Tanzania is now one of the best-managed Potentially more important than the was not going to deliver development, and dom from checks and balances to ma- of all Africa’s economies. The European import of capital has been the import of that market-price signals and economic nipulate elections. Miguel writes of Ke- society with the best record of contain- cheap manufactured goods from China, stability were powerful tools in generating nya, but a far more dramatic episode has ing inflation over the past sixty years is which has enabled Africans to afford prod- growth. In Mozambique in 2001, I watched rapidly superseded the Kenyan election. Germany. It has the best record because ucts they would not otherwise have been the Minister of Finance berate her col- As I write, President Robert Mugabe it used to have the worst: the experience able to enjoy. Cheap Chinese bicycles are leagues for even daring to think of risking has turned Zimbabwean democracy into of hyperinflation immunized Germans everywhere in Busia, the Kenyan town long-run economic stability for short run farce. Furthermore, there can be little from macroeconomic folly. Miguel describes. They help transport agri- political gain. More than the new mega ex- doubt thatthe Zimbabwean economy Learning from failure is an unglam- cultural produce to market and are the basis port-oriented investment projects opening has suffered because of the election. In orous and sometimes unpopular explana- of a thriving taxi trade whereby customers in Maputo, it was this that made me opti- order to win, Mugabe has uprooted the tion for Africa’s improvement. But if it sit sidesaddle on the back. In Sierra Leone, mistic. Is there room to improve the way aid rule of law, and this has had severe eco- is right it has one hugely important and where the radio is a key source of informa- supports the governments of countries like nomic consequences. My forthcoming attractive implication: the improvement tion about politics, cheap Chinese radios Mozambique? Absolutely, and that is what book, State of War, sets out why I think is robust. I am hopeful that the present are helping inform and connect a highly many economists—Miguel included—now democracy has gone wrong in the bottom commodity booms will be better handled dispersed population. do through careful impact evaluations. billion and what would be needed to put than those of the 1970s, primarily be- The commodity price boom—whether But was the hand of the Finance minister it on track. cause many Africans are fully aware of generated by China or not—has indeed strengthened by the philosophical and fi- If democracy is not responsible for past mistakes and are determined not to helped sub-Saharan Africa, which has nancial support of the donors, responsible the economic about-face, what is? Miguel repeat them. © experienced a 50 percent increase in total for 40 percent of the budget? You bet. © may / june 2 0 0 8 19 NEW DEMOCRACY FORUM of next year’s presidential polls, could have impact evaluations can play a key role in massive consequences for Africa’s overall determining which policies are most effec- economic development trajectory. tive at bolstering economic development What role is foreign aid playing? Rachel and institutional performance, and I agree Glennerster is optimistic about Africa’s with her that they are a promising tool for future, and gives foreign aid donors a African policymakers and donors alike. good share of the credit. In her view, for- Following more or less the same rig- eign aid has largely been a force for sound orous methodology as counterparts in policymaking in Africa since the end of the medical sciences, economists have in the Cold War, during which, she observes, recent years started taking the lessons of donor motives were far less altruistic. She randomized trials to heart. One place to focuses on cases in which donors were witness this new approach in action is in instrumental in solidifying the transition Kenya’s Busia district. The economists to multi-party competition, as in Kenya. working in Busia—led by Harvard econ- Yet I think these cases are only a part of omist Michael Kremer, and including the story. In other situations Western sup- myself—are at the forefront of a growing port for human rights and democracy in movement to obtain better evidence on Africa is more rhetoric than reality. In the what works in development. In collabo- 1990s large foreign aid donors (including ration with NGOs, academic research- the World Bank) lavished financial sup- ers working in Busia used randomized port on Uganda, a one-party regime that program evaluations to show that pro- meddled militarily in its neighbors’ affairs, viding anti-parasitic drugs for intestinal looting piles of diamonds from war-torn worms—a major scourge affecting over Congo along the way. The United States 90 percent of Busia’s children—can boost and France today are far more interested primary school attendance and may have in securing a stable supply of petroleum longer-term effects on students’ health. from Nigeria and Gabon than in investi- Comparing deworming to other common gating credible claims about election rig- interventions shows it to be arguably the ging there. It is fair to say that Western most cost-effective way to achieve such sevin support for African democracy remains gains in rural Africa. Just as medical re- ela g uneven. searchers are confident that their new an Should African policymakers focus re- therapies are responsible for health im- sources on improving agricultural productiv- provements among their treatment group, ity? Olu Ajakaiye and Rosamond Naylor we can be sure that anti-parasitic drugs lay out sharply different views in the latest are responsible for higher rates of school ‘A learning agenda is the chapter of this classic development debate. attendance. key to Africa’s economic future’ While I’m highly sympathetic to Ajakaiye’s While it’s natural to focus on such suc- view that the best way to eliminate the cess stories, randomized evaluations don’t massive risk facing African farmers is for always produce positive results about pro- Edward Miguel responds more Africans to work in factories than on gram impacts. But information on failures farms—following the trajectory of other is just as useful; it allows policymakers to now-rich countries—neither he nor I can shift funding from the projects that don’t hese insightful comments raise sev- believes that for all the talk of African de- articulate a clear set of policies that will work toward those that do. This is at the Teral points that I neglected, and bring mocracies, the nature of governing hasn’t generate industrial development. Import- heart of the learning agenda that Collier, out the subtleties of the issues I wrestled changed much at all, a position shared by substituting industrialization policies in Glennerster, Singh, and I all believe is the with in my piece. Four questions, in partic- Jeremy Weinstein. Bates and Weinstein the 1960s and ’70s proved disappointing, as key to Africa’s economic future. Democ- ular, emerge throughout the responses. aren’t even sure we should call these new have more recent laissez-faire approaches. racies like those emerging in Africa are Is Africa’s recent economic turnaround African multi-party regimes—where the Instead of trying to establish a new indus- particularly good learning environments, driven mainly by external factors? Nearly art of rigging elections is perfected and op- trial development scheme, Naylor lays out a settings where impact evaluations can be everyone agrees that understanding Afri- positions rarely win—democracies. Wein- series of policy steps to address farming risk carried out, their fruits widely distrib- ca’s place in the global economy is critical stein believes Africa’s persistent ethnic and low productivity, problems made ever uted, and governments held accountable to decoding its economic performance, rivalries and conflict will hinder further more critical with climate change looming. for applying their lessons to policy. In na- although they place different degrees of reform. Paul Collier tends to share this The coherence and concreteness of her pro- tions with weaker governance, rigorous emphasis on commodity prices, aid, trade, pessimism about African democratization, posals make them highly attractive. program evaluations can themselves serve and investment. Ken Banks disagrees. He pointing to Zimbabwe’s relentless slide, Yet the agricultural productivity gains as a form of political accountability, em- argues that mobile technology has been even as he shares my cautious optimism that both Naylor and David Weil call for powering decent government officials to revolutionizing African economies and about Africa’s economic future. will be hard to achieve. As Weil admits, push for reform. societies from within, providing employ- I understand Bates, Collier, and Wein- less corrupt and more capable African With impact-evaluation results in ment, boosting farm productivity, and stein’s disappointment with the limits of institutions are a prerequisite for essen- hand, policymakers in poor countries energizing African entrepreneurs. While Africa’s political transformation. But their tial investments in irrigation, agricultural will increasingly be able to rely on hard many of his points are reasonable, the analyses fail to acknowledge that genuine technologies, and adequate crop insur- evidence when deciding how to use their single-minded focus on cell phones is progress has occurred. I have not presented ance. He also argues that the challenge of scarce resources. We now know the ben- unconvincing. The study Banks himself decisive evidence on the economic payoffs high population growth, which leads to efits of anti-parasitic drugs in improving cites suggests that a tripling of mobile to democracy, a puzzle that has wrong- land shortages or fuels urban crime, will school attendance in Busia, and as a re- penetration from ten to thirty cell phones footed social scientists for decades. But the require better governance. But, as Smita sult the Kenyan national government has per hundred people would boost income political transitions in many countries— Singh observes, the big question is how to included mass school-based deworming per capita by scarcely one to two per- Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, and oth- make African state institutions more effec- in its official school health plan for the cent—hardly revolutionary. To assert that ers—have been remarkable, if incomplete. tive and accountable. country. Word has spread, and other Af- global economic conditions matter for Af- If these political changes have not yet paid What is the way forward, then? Col- rican countries have expanded their own rica—as they do for other regions—is not large economic dividends, there is hope lier believes that the key issue for African school deworming plans. In Ghana, over to typecast Africans as “passive victims,” they will in the not too distant future. countries trying to sustain current eco- four million children received anti-para- but rather to appreciate the real-world South Africa plays a giant role in this nomic booms is to learn from the past and sitic drugs at school in 2007. constraints within which African policy- story; Bates rightly emphasizes its impor- avoid the unsuccessful policies adopted Learning about deworming is a small makers must operate. tance, which I largely neglected. South Af- during the commodity boom of the 1970s. step forward on its own. But it will be Is African democratization a sham? rica has been a major force for investment He thinks many African leaders are ready through many such small lessons—in areas Robert Bates articulates the clearest vi- and trade, and the leading migration des- to learn from these past failures, and that as diverse as health, education, agriculture, sion of where Africa is headed, and it’s not tination for many of its neighbors. More- this new attitude will help to sustain more governance, and foreign aid—that Afri- optimistic. Bates believes Africa’s current over, its democratic opening has inspired robust economic growth. can countries might learn to sustain and economic expansion is a blip, driven by the world. So much is riding on its steady Collier doesn’t specify how we can possibly augment their recent economic temporarily high commodity export prices (if slow) economic growth. Political insta- learn what works best and ensure its imple- growth, even after the inevitable fall in rather than deeper internal changes. He bility in South Africa, say, in the aftermath mentation. Glennerster believes rigorous global commodity prices. © 20 BOSTON REVIEW