Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs

DR Congo: Stage Victory International Community Being Challenged by Presidential Election

Dunja Speiser* SWP Comments

For the first time in 41 years, the Democratic Republic of Congo has held democratic elections. The first round of the Presidential and Legislative Elections on July 30th went off relatively smoothly, which had not been expected considering the enormous logis- tical challenges. Due to the fact that the elections have not lead to a clear result and neither of the candidates achieved the absolute majority, the runoff elections between the current incumbent (independent candidate) and the Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba (leader of the former rebellion-movement MLC) are expected to take place on October 29th. The announcement of the provisional outcome on August 20 led to some armed clashes between Kabila’s Presidential Guards and the militia of Bemba in the city of . It was only with the help of military and diplomatic interven- tions by the United Nations Organization Mission in the Congo MONUC, accompanied by the European intervention troops EUFOR as well as the CIAT, the International Committee supporting the transition in the DRC, that violence was prevented from escalating. Kabila’s Party-Alliance reached a majority within the National Assembly which could secure him the role as prime minister and thus the right to form the government.

On September 7th, the results of the elec- tutional Referendum in December 2005. tions for the National Assembly were While the constitutional powers of the announced. 234 of the total of 500 seats president are limited to defense and foreign went to Kabila’s Alliance for the Presiden- policy, it is the prime minister’s task to take tial Majority (AMP) and the remaining 116 over the responsibility of all other govern- seats went to the Rally of Congolese Nation- mental affairs. In the current discussion, alists (RENACO) supporting Bemba. The this role has gained as much importance as upcoming negotiations regarding the the person that will be taking on this task. formation of a coalition-compliant absolute Since the president appoints the prime majority will direct all attention to the minister, we will not see a formation of Parliament and the power-separating func- government before November. However, tions of the new political system. This both the AMP—and the RENACO camps system has been confirmed by the Consti-

* Dunja Speiser works in Kinshasa for the Bureau of Institutional Reform and Democracy (BiRD) SWP Comments 23 and is doing her doctorate on the reconstruction of post-conflict states in Africa September 2006

1 have already began to court for potential accused Kabila of not being Congolese and coalition partners. of selling the Congo to foreign countries Due to the rather complicated Propor- during his time in office; he blamed him tional Election System with open lists for being a weak President, a puppet within (Preferential Election), the mandates will be the International Community. In order to distributed among 132 parties, only five of deliver his message and spread it among as which will reach a percentage between 5% many people as possible, Bemba mostly and 22%. This very strong fragmentation used his radio and TV stations, which some actually has a clear advantage as far as the media experts have already compared to securing of peace is concerned: it inhibits the Rwandan propaganda station “Radio the direct and absolute majority of one Mille Collines”. But also Kabila used the group, forces the parties to reach a con- national TV stations for propaganda pur- sensus and guarantees a broad representa- poses. Especially after the elections, he tion of the population in Parliament. The accused Bemba of being a war criminal and National Assembly will already meet on violator of human rights. September 22nd. As the first democratically The following considerations might have authorized institution, it offers an alter- lead Kabila to exercise violence against native to violence, for which Kabila as well Bemba: (1) He demonstrated his power and as Bemba decided for after the proclama- military strength and defined the bounda- tion of the election results on August 20th. ries for the upcoming election campaign. The heavy fighting between the Presi- (2) By attacking the radio and TV stations dential Guards and Bemba’s Militia that of the leader of the MLC, Kabila limited lasted for three consecutive days in the city- Bemba’s capacity to spread his propaganda centre of Kinshasa and reached its peak in the media. (3) By firing at Bemba’s resi- when Kabila’s troops attacked the residence dence with CIAT-members inside of it, of Vice President Bemba. During the attack, Kabila devitalized the allegation of being a not only Bemba but also several members puppet of the International Community. of the CIAT, among which there were 14 It is mainly in the Western part of the ambassadors as well as the representative of Congo where the politicization of Kabila’s the UN- General Secretary, William Swing, nationality and his lacking knowledge of were trapped inside the residence. The the local language Lingala spoken in those happenings have fueled widespread con- parts of the country, seem to have been cerns over a peaceful outcome of the tran- the crucial factor in favor of Bemba. The sition process and have raised the question nationalistic-xenophobic strategy seems to as to why we have seen such an out-of-scale have earned the MLC-leader, who gained extent of violence. 20% of all votes, a distinct majority in the provinces of Bas-Congo, Kinshasa and his home region of Equateuer. Violence among winners Kabila, who received 44% of the votes By taking a look at the first election cam- gained an overwhelming majority mainly paign, one can clearly see the accumulation in the Eastern regions such as Province of political tensions which then on August Oriental, the three Kivu-regions and 20th discharged in a violent display. Katanga, the home province of his father— During the election campaign that all of which areas were affected the most lasted for one month, Bemba was stirring by the conflicts between 1996 and 2001. up hatred against President Kabila, mainly In the eyes of his voters, Kabila stands for by focusing and putting his own stamp on peace and a reunification of the country. the expression “Congolite”, which was sup- And after all, he has made good on his posed to emphasize his national ethos and promise to hold democratic elections. at the same time discredit the President: He

SWP Comments 23 September 2006

2 Difficult election campaign of six pages, additionally aggravated the The development of campaigning has situation. Several irregularities have been proven to be one of the weak points of the reported and precise results have been out whole election process. The whole time in of the ordinary. It was mainly organiza- this phase there was not such a thing as a tional deficiencies on the part of the Inde- level-playing-field for all 33 candidates. pendent Election Commission CEI that The vast majority were forced to campaign were responsible for the shortcomings in a very limited scope due to a lack of during the period of counting the votes. resources. It was only Kabila and Bemba that had sufficient means allowing them to campaign throughout the whole country Second round – chances and risks and gain votes by personal appearances in The inevitable runoff election between all regions. In their first round of cam- Kabila and Bemba that coincides with the paigning, Kabila allegedly spent 50 million election for the Province Parliaments, whereas Bemba invested 20 million US- opens up chances that can be of great use Dollars. The most prominent candidate of for the democratic learning process of the the opposition, Etienne Tshisekedi who is country: (1) Since the Election Commission the president of UDPS and who was sup- and the International Community were posed to have a great chance to come in accused of specifically lobbying for Kabila’s second for the Presidential Elections, preservation of power, both of them gain in the end boycotted the election. Other credibility in case of a fair runoff election. promising candidates have been constricted (2) If Kabila had won with a majority of only severely during their campaign. scarcely over 50%, it would have been extremely difficult to legitimize his presi- dency, especially in the politically impor- Election day tant Kinshasa. (3) Since coalition nego- It is extremely challenging to organize and tiations are necessary in the National hold elections in a country with hardly any Assembly, both camps will be able to form a infrastructure. Considering these circum- shadow cabinet. The election campaign and stances, everything went off smoothly and the decision of the voters take place within peacefully apart from a few exceptions. broad personnel debates and are limited to More than 70% of the approximately 25 aspects of the contents. (4) The Election Million Congolese who had registered to Commission gets the chance to eliminate vote by November 2005 came to cast their the technical deficiencies of the first round vote under free and fair conditions. They and therefore enhance its legitimacy. went to the nearly 50.000 polling stations (5) The lack of information in respect of the and had to decide not only between the 33 election process and the new political Presidential candidates but also between system can be diminished by intensively more than 9000 candidates for the National educating the people. Assembly. However, the second round also comes While on Election Day, everything with certain risks: (1) Since Bemba is most seemed to have been organized very well, likely going to continue focusing on the the opposite was the case when it came topic of “Congolite”, there is a great danger to the counting of the votes. The chaotic that the xenophobic sentiment will heat circumstances in Kinshasa stirred up up. This again would further cement the accusations of fraud and lead to highly East-West schism within the Congo and negative propaganda due to the prolonged could only be avoided by broad coalition process. The preferential election system, negotiations and the prevention of a xeno- that caused four constituencies in Kinshasa phobic policy. (2) Further violent conflicts to each list 900 candidates on huge ballots

SWP Comments 23 September 2006

3 between the winner and the loser party ciently enforced security reform. Especially would most likely be expected. the integration of diverse militia into the national army has not been accomplished, the Presidential Guards have been omitted. Outlook The International Community has to en- After the first round, Kabila has a clear force the following demands by all means majority in votes, which does not necessar- in order to facilitate a continuing peaceful ily mean that he can be expected to win the progress of democratisation: (a) the Presi- runoff elections. His potential voters in the dential Guards as well as Bemba’s Militia Eastern part of the country seem largely have to be barracked before and after the tapped whereas Bemba still has the chance elections; (b) the weapons (including tanks) to mobilise a substantial number of voters that have recently been delivered to the in the West. The final result will also be Kabila-Administration, need to be put significantly influenced by the recommen- under the control of MONUC; (c) the Presi-

© Stiftung Wissenschaft und dations of the eliminated candidates— dential Guards need to be reduced to a Politik, 2006 especially the ones that were ranking small number after the elections; (d) the All rights reserved behind the two favourites such as Antoine formation of a national army needs to

SWP Gizenga (13%), Francois Joseph Mobutu be prioritized and pressed ahead with. Stiftung Wissenschaft und (4.8%) and Oscar Kashala (3.5%). It is also 2. In compliance with their mandate, Politik German Institute for Tshisekedi’s behaviour that could have an EUFOR has added to safeguarding the elec- International and impact since his boycott supposedly drove tion process. It turned out that a relatively Security Affairs most of his supporters to the MLC-Can- small number of soldiers can have a signifi- Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 didate. A lot of voters, especially in Kin- cant impact and that it was the right 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 shasa, will probably go for “Anything But decision to focus especially on the capital Fax +49 30 880 07-100 Kabila” and therefore cast their vote for in regard to the assignment. The German www.swp-berlin.org Bemba. They consider Kabila to be intellec- Bundestag should agree on extending the [email protected] tually un-cultured, to have a lack of charis- EUFOR-mandate. The objective costs of the ISSN 1861-1761 ma and rhetorical talent, which makes assignment are high—the relative costs him an ineligible candidate in their eyes. however a lot lower, considering the Bemba’s xenophobic slogans have further extremely high overall investments that found a rich breeding ground—particularly have been made in this, which is by far the among the many young people that have most expensive peace- and election process. no employment and no perspectives and In order to secure the sustainability of these can thus easily be influenced. investments, it is vital to secure the politi- After the incidents of violence, many cally critical phase that is presently pre- Congolese lament about only having the vailing with robust military support. Only choice between two military men. Both if peace will endure in the long term, will candidates secure their power by their own the population profit from it eventually. private armies that are beyond any national There has probably never been a perfect control. A lot of people are also complain- point of time for elections in a post-war ing about the fact that members of the society, however, the Congolese population interim government were authorized to would not have tolerated any further defer- run for presidency. Had there been a ban, it ment as it demanded legitimate representa- would have lead to the exclusion of former tives for the new political institutions. The warlords, as can be seen in other post-con- International Community has enabled and flict countries. supported these elections and it now has to The current happenings reveal a number make sure that this was one further step for of things: the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1. They refer to the neuralgic point of the direction of democracy that can never the transition arrangements: the insuffi- be reversed again.

SWP Comments 23 September 2006

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