Africa Set for 46 Million Pay TV Subs

Africa set for 46 million pay TV subs

Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to add more than 16 million pay TV subscribers between 2018 and 2024 to bring its total to 45.63 million, according to the Sub- Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts report.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Subscriber numbers will climb by 61% over this period, but pay TV revenues will rise by only 42% - indicating lower ARPUs. Pay TV revenues will reach $7.72 billion by 2024, up by $2.3 billion on 2018.”

Pay TV subscriber growth by operator (000) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2018 2024 Other 1,943 5,198 StarSat 905 3,497 StarTimes 6,842 11,355 Gotv 3,711 5,675 DStv 10,624 13,696 Easy TV 79 534 Canal Plus 3,462 5,672 Source: Digital TV Research

Three groups accounted for 93% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s pay TV subscribers in 2018 – although this proportion will fall to 89% by 2024. Multichoice had 14.34 million subs across satellite TV platform DStv and DTT platform GOtv by end- 2018. This total will grow by 5 million to 19.37 million by 2024.

France’s Vivendi had 4.01 million subs to its Canal Plus satellite TV platform and Easy TV DTT platform by end-2018, which will climb to 6.21 million by 2024.

StarTimes/StarSat will enjoy the most impressive growth: from 7.75 million subs at end-2018 to 14.85 million by 2024 – up from 54% of the Multichoice total to 77% of its total by 2024.

Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts

Published in January 2019, this 322-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report comes in three parts:

• Outlook: Forecasts for 35 countries in an 86-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2024 for 35 countries by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers, by pay TV revenues and by major operator. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in an 119-page PDF document.

For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]

Forecasts for the following 35 countries and 129 platforms:

Country No of ops Platforms Angola 6 ZAP TV, DStv, Canal Plus, StarSat, Angola Telecom, TV Cabo Benin 4 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes Botswana 3 DStv; GOtv; StarSat Burkina Faso 3 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat Burundi 4 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes Cameroon 4 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes CAR 3 Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes Chad 3 Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes DR Congo 5 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes; Easy TV Rep Congo 5 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes; Easy TV Cote d’Ivoire 5 Canal Plus, DStv, StarTimes; StarSat; Easy TV Eq. Guinea 2 Canal Plus, DStv Ethiopia 2 DStv; StarSat Gabon 5 Canal Plus, DStv, StarTimes; StarSat Gambia 2 Canal Plus, DStv Ghana 4 Canal Plus, DStv, GOtv; StarSat Guinea 4 Canal Plus, DStv, StarTimes; StarSat Kenya 6 Zuku cable, Zuku satellite, DStv, StarTimes, GOtv, StarSat Liberia 3 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat Madagascar 4 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes Malawi 4 Zuku, DStv, GOtv; StarSat Mali 2 Canal Plus; StarSat Mozambique 7 ZAP TV, DStv, Canal Plus, StarSat, StarTimes; GOtv, TV Cabo Namibia 3 DStv, GOtv; StarSat Niger 3 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat Nigeria 5 GOtv, DStv, StarTimes, StarSat; Canal Plus Rwanda 6 Zuku, DStv, StarTimes, StarSat; GOtv, Canal Plus Senegal 4 Canal Plus, DStv, Orange; StarSat Sierra Leone 4 DStv; Canal Plus; StarSat; StarTimes South Africa 3 DStv, StarSat, GOtv Tanzania 4 Zuku, DStv, StarTimes, StarSat Togo 3 Canal Plus, DStv, StarSat Uganda 5 Zuku, DStv, StarTimes, GOtv, StarSat Zambia 5 Zuku, DStv, StarTimes, GOtv, StarSat Zimbabwe 2 DStv, StarSat

SAMPLE: Ghana pay TV insight

• About 44.5% (1.95 million) of homes in Ghana had a TV set at end-2018. This total will reach 3.21 million by 2024, or 52.0% of total households.

Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The pay TV sector is not very competitive in this small market, although StarSat adds rivalry to both DStv and GOtv. • No cable networks are expected to launch in the medium term, although we expect IPTV to start in 2019. • Analog switch-off is expected in 2019. Source: Digital TV Research

• Digital TV penetration will reach 100% by 2019; up from 89% at end-2018. Pay DTT started in 2013. This will help to push pay TV penetration from 24.4% at end-2018 to 30.2% in 2024. Pay TV revenues will increase from $72 million in 2018 to $110 million in 2024.

• GOtv became the pay TV market leader in 2015, and will retain top slot. However, StarSat will quickly gain subs to its low-priced satellite TV platform (which will somewhat stifle growth for both GOtv and DStv).

DStv subscription fees (GHS) Package Channels Price Premium 187 330 Compact+ 173 195 Compact 166 125 Family 140 65 Access 125 35 Source: DStv

• Multichoice’s DStv satellite TV platform had 182,000 subscribers in Ghana by end-2018. This total is forecast to reach 236,000 by 2024 – low growth due to competition. Multichoice’s operation in Ghana is a partnership with Richard Darko, Bryan Harris, Louis Casely-Hayford and Ardeley Investments.

• As well as controlling rights to English Premier League and La Liga soccer, MultiChoice’s SuperSport screens the European Champions League matches. However, SuperSport no longer has the rights to the local soccer league. DStv added some French-language Canal Plus channels in May 2013.

GOtv subscription fees (GHS) Package Channels Price Max 65 60 Plus 45 35 Value 29 18 Lite 23 9 Source: GOtv

• DStv’s sister company GOtv launched in Accra in January 2013, using the DVB-T2 standard. We estimate that GOtv had 316,000 subscribers by end- 2018, which will reach 446,000 by 2024. The Max package, which includes La Liga soccer, was introduced in October 2017.

• The government wanted to convert all homes to digital in 2018 (delayed from the original deadline of September 2017), with Accra completed by end-2016. We do not think that national conversion will happen until 2019. The government will give 1 million free settop boxes to poorer homes. In September 2011, the NCA announced the adoption of the DVB-T2 standard. There are 28 FTA DTT channels.

• The government originally appointed Exim Bank China to finance the construction of the DTT transmission network. In July 2011, StarTimes signed a joint venture DTT deal with local company DIRECTV. However, the government lost patience at the lack of progress and rescinded the licenses in 2013. In 2018, FTA broadcasters protested against the government’s apparent decision to allow StarTimes to become involved in the DTT sector again.

StarTimes satellite subscription fees (GHS) Package Channels Price Super 22 60 Smart 28 30 Nova 28 15 Source: StarTimes

• Despite this setback and perhaps assuming that a DTT license is unlikely to be awarded, StarTimes launched a satellite TV platform in October 2016. We forecast 175,000 subscribers by 2024. As well as exclusive Bundesliga and Europa League action, StarTimes won the 10-year rights to screen the local soccer league. StarTimes also has the rights to the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

• Zimbabwe-backed Kwese started pay TV operations via satellite in late 2017 and in a deal with mobile operator MTN in February 2017. However, Kwese dropped the satellite TV platform in November 2018 in favor of mobile distribution via Kwese Play and Kwese Iflix. High content fees have been blamed for the closure. Kwese also has a distribution deal with Netflix. The FTA sports channel will continue.

• In October 2018, Vodafone signed a deal to carry Kwese Play, with another deal with Liquid Telecom a month later. Kwese Play offers more than 200 streaming channels. Kwese Iflix formed an agreement with MTN in September 2018.

Canal Plus subscription fees (GHS) Package Channels Price Tout+ 224 290 Evasion+ 207 150 Access+ 169 110 Evasion 184 70 Access 150 35 Source: Canal Plus

• Satellite TV operator Canal Plus Afrique has 11,000 subscribers in Ghana. Ghana’s neighboring countries are Francophone.

• Sister company to FTA broadcaster Crystal TV, Mega-Choice Digital began satellite TV operations in January 2017.

• MultiTV serves homes with 20 FTA signals of local channels via the SES Astra satellite system. Launched in 2009, MultiTV claimed to have sold 3 million settop boxes in West Africa by mid-2017.

• Strong Technologies, trading as MyTV, also provides 55 FTA and pay TV channels.

• The ITU estimated 56,810 fixed broadband subscribers by end-2017.

• Broadband operator First Digital offers satellite TV and DTT platforms for GHS25/month with 19 channels.

• Mobile operators Tigo, owned by Millicom, and Airtel merged operations in March 2017. The merged operation has 10 million subscribers, of which 5.6 million are data users.

• Mobile operator MTN (17.11 million subscribers by September 2018) began its own VOD platform via MTN Play in February 2017. MTN extended this offer in April by agreeing to carry Kwese Play (fixed and mobile).

• Rival mobile operator Vodafone (9.33 million subscribers by June 2018) already distributes iRoko to its subscribers. In October 2018, Vodafone signed a deal to carry Kwese Play. Vodafone launched its fiber optic network in February 2017. Mobile competitor Globacom (Glo Mobile) has 800,000 subscribers.

• GDP per capita was $1,787 in 2018. The IMF forecasts average GDP growth for the next five years; down from good growth in the last edition.

• The population was 29.00 million at end-2018, with average growth forecast by the IMF. Accra has a population of 2.41 million, with 2.95 million in Kumasi.

• Nana Akufo-Addo won the presidential election in December 2016; beating incumbent John Mahama.

Ghana pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Households (000) TV households (000) Digital cable subs (000) Analog cable subs (000) Pay IPTV subscribers (000) Pay digital satellite TV subs (000) Free-to-air satellite TV hh (000) Analog terrestrial hhs (000) Primary FTA DTT hhs (000) Primary Pay DTT hhs (000)

Digital homes (000) Analog homes (000) Pay TV subscribers (000) Total DTT homes (000)

Digital cable subs/TV HH Analog cable subs/TV HH Pay IPTV subs/TV HH Pay satellite TV/TV HH Free-to-air satellite TV/TV HH Analog terrestrial/TVHH Primary FTA DTT/TV HH Primary pay DTT/TV HH

TVHH/HH Digital/TV HH Analog/TV HH Pay TV Subs/TV HH Total DTT/TVHH

Standalone dig cable subs (000) Dual-play dig cable subs (000) Triple-play dig cable subs (000)

Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000) Dual-play pay IPTV subs (000) Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)

Ghana pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Revenues (US$ million) Stand-alone digital cable revs Dual-play digital cable TV revs Triple-play digital cable TV revenues Digital cable TV subs revs Dig cable TV on-demand revs Digital cable TV revenues Analog cable TV subs revs Cable TV revenues

Stand-alone IPTV revenues Dual-play IPTV revenues Triple-play IPTV revenues IPTV subscription revenues IPTV on-demand revenues IPTV revenues

Satellite TV subscription revs Satellite TV on-demand revs Satellite TV revenues

DTT subscription revs DTT on-demand revenues DTT revenues

Subscription revenues On-demand revenues Total revenues

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$) Stand-alone digital cable subs Dual-play dig cable TV subs Triple-play dig cable TV subs Ave dig cable (subs & VOD) Analog cable TV subs Stand-alone IPTV subs Dual-play IPTV subs Triple-play IPTV subs Average IPTV (subs and VOD) Pay satellite TV (subs) Pay satellite TV (subs & PPV) Pay DTT (subs) Pay DTT (subs and PPV) Average monthly ARPU

Ghana pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pay TV subscribers by operator (000) Canal Plus (satellite) DStv (satellite) Gotv (DTT) StarSat (satellite) Others

Share of pay TV subs by operator % Canal Plus (satellite) DStv (satellite) Gotv (DTT) StarSat (satellite) Others

Subscription & VOD revenues (US$ million) Canal Plus (satellite) DStv (satellite) Gotv (DTT) StarSat (satellite) Others

Share of pay TV revenues by operator % Canal Plus (satellite) DStv (satellite) Gotv (DTT) StarSat (satellite) Others

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$) Canal Plus (satellite) DStv (satellite) Gotv (DTT) StarSat (satellite)

Source: digital TV research Ltd.

Ghana pay TV outlook

Homes by platform (000) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 A terres 439 250 0 0 0 Pay DTT 300 316 336 358 446 Free DTT 1,171 1,421 1,730 1,794 2,053 Free satellite 107 118 131 143 186 Pay Satellite 213 263 301 332 436 IPTV 0 0 13 27 87 A Cable 0 0 0 0 0 D cable 0 0 0 0 0

Revenues by platform ($m) 120

100

0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 Pay DTT 17 18 20 21 26 Pay Satellite 53 53 56 62 78 IPTV 0 0 0 1 6 A Cable 0 0 0 0 0 D cable 0 0 0 0 0

Ghana pay TV outlook

Pay TV subs by operator (000) 1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 Others 3 4 17 33 95 StarSat 32 66 90 108 175 Gotv 300 316 336 358 446 DStv 167 182 194 204 236 Canal Plus 11 11 12 13 18

Pay TV revenues by operator ($m) 120

100

0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 Others 0 0 1 3 9 StarSat 2 4 6 8 13 Gotv 17 18 20 21 26 DStv 47 45 45 48 56 Canal Plus 4 4 4 4 6

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2018 Title Publication Price 1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560 2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV January £1200/€1440/$1560 Forecasts 3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1440/$1560 4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 5 North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650 6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 11 Pay TV Subscriber Prospects May £800/€960/$1040 12 Pay TV Revenue Prospects May £800/€960/$1040 13 vMVPD and D2C TV Forecasts May £900/€1,080/$1170 14 Netflix Forecasts May £700/€840/$910 15 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts June 16 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video July £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts 17 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1000/€1200/$1300 18 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300 19 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £500/€600/$650 20 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300 21 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300 22 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1800/€2160/$2340 23 Global SVOD Forecasts September £1500/€1800/$1950 24 TV Forecasts October £1500/€1800/$1950 25 Western Europe TV Outlook October £1200/€1440/$1560 26 TV Databook October £1000/€1200/$1300 27 SVOD Outlook by Country October £1000/€1200/$1300 28 European TV Databook November £750/€900/$975 29 SVOD Databook November £650/€780/$845

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