Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, April 27

Headlines:

• 10 Israeli Teens Killed in Flash Floods in the South of Israel • Principal Arrested After Students Killed by Flash Floods • Pompeo to Middle East Fresh Off Confirmation as Secretary of State • Israel at UN: Iran Has More Than 80,000 Fighters in Syria • Liberman: Israel will hit Tehran if Iran attacks Tel Aviv • Mattis Warns of 'Likely' Conflict Between Israel and Iran • Israel Denies Killing Palestinian in Malaysia • Women Now Eligible for Position of ‘Knesset Rabbi’

Commentary: • Al Monitor: “Why Israel Needs New Regional Alliances” - By Efraim Sneh, former Israel deputy minister of Defense • Washington Post: “Want to fight anti-Semitism? Teach people about the Holocaust” - By pollsters Douglas Schoen and Arielle Confino

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor

News Excerpts April 27, 2018 Ynet News 10 Israeli Teens Killed in South Flash Flood Search and rescue teams, police and IDF helicopters scrambled on Thursday afternoon to locate a group of school children in southern Israel, 10 of whom were found dead, after they went missing as heavy rainfalls drenched the region. The teenagers, from a pre-military academy school, were on a two- day bonding trip to Zafit Stream in HaArava. The school trip, though, ended abruptly when they were suddenly hit by a flash flood. Those of the group walking in the middle of the stream were immediately carried off by the massive wave. The wounded youths were evacuated to Soroka University Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, which declared the tragedy as a mass-casualty incident. See also, “Death toll up to ten in flash floods tragedy after missing teen found overnight” (i24 News)

Times of Israel Principal Arrested After Students Killed by Flash Floods Police on Friday arrested the principal of the Bnei Tzion pre-military academy and an instructor on suspicion of negligent homicide, after a hike arranged by the Tel Aviv-based institution resulted in the deaths of 10 teenage students in flash floods. The two were questioned overnight Thursday-Friday over their failure to heed flooding warnings south of the Dead Sea, police said. A third suspect was also questioned and later released to house arrest, according to police. The two suspects will be brought to court later on Friday, where police will seek an extension to their remand. See also, “Israel Opens Investigation Into Flash Flood Deaths of Nine Teenage Hikers” (Ha’aretz)

Jerusalem Post Pompeo to Middle East Fresh Off Confirmation as S. Sec. The Trump administration’s new secretary of state wasted no time on Thursday, traveling from his swearing-in ceremony at the US Supreme Court directly to a State Department plane headed to Europe and the Middle East. Mike Pompeo’s inaugural trip as top diplomat will take him to Brussels, Riyadh, Jerusalem and Amman, “where [after attending NATO’s foreign ministerial summit] he will meet with Saudi, Israeli and Jordanian leaders to discuss critical regional and bilateral issues,” a State Department spokesman said. Pompeo has “no plans at this time” to meet with Palestinian leadership while in the region, a Trump administration official told The Jerusalem Post.

Times of Israel Israel at UN: Iran Has More Than 80,000 Fighters in Syria Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations on Thursday presented an aerial photograph of an alleged Iranian base outside Damascus that he said Tehran was using to bring in and train tens of thousands of fighters for the militias it backs in Syria. “There are over 80,000 extremists from all over the Middle East who are members of Shia militias in Syria under Iranian control,” Danny Danon told the UN Security Council. The satellite image showed what appeared to be a military installation in the mountains northwest of Syria’s capital. The base serves as “Iran’s central induction and recruitment center in Syria,” Danon said. The ambassador did not provide evidence to support the claim. See also, “Israeli envoy says Iran has recruited 80,000 Shiite fighters in Syria” (Ynet News)

Reuters Liberman: Israel will hit Tehran if Iran attacks Tel Aviv Israel would retaliate against any Iranian attack on Tel Aviv by striking Tehran, Israel’s defense minister said in remarks published on Thursday, as the arch-foes faced off over Syria. The comments by Avigdor Lieberman were an unusually explicit Israeli threat to take military action within Iranian territory, and followed a surge of unprecedented confrontations between the countries’ forces in civil war-torn Syria. “Israel doesn’t want war ... but if Iran attacks Tel Aviv, we will hit Tehran,” Avigdor Lieberman told the Arabic-language, Saudi-owned news website Elaph, which is based in London. Coastal Tel Aviv is Israel’s commercial capital, where its military is headquartered. Iran, which does not recognize Israel’s right to exist, often threatens strikes on Tel Aviv. See also, “ Liberman to Saudi-owned paper: If Iran strikes Tel Aviv, we’ll strike Tehran” (TOI)

Jerusalem Post Mattis Warns of 'Likely' Conflict Between Israel and Iran Direct conflict between Israeli and Iranian forces is increasingly likely in Syria as Tehran pursues a permanent military presence there, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis warned on Thursday. Addressing a congressional panel before hosting his Israeli counterpart, Avigdor Liberman, at the Pentagon, Mattis said it was “very likely” from his perspective, “because Iran continues to do its proxy work there through Hezbollah.” Receiving Liberman, Mattis told reporters that he saw no reason for Iran to ship advanced missiles to Hezbollah through Syria except to threaten Israel. “I can see how it might start, but I am not sure when or where,” the secretary told lawmakers.

AP Israel Denies Killing Palestinian in Malaysia Israel's defense minister is denying that his country killed a Hamas-affiliated scientist who was gunned down last week in Malaysia. Avigdor Lieberman told the Arabic news site Elaph that "we did not assassinate him." When asked in the interview on Thursday who killed Palestinian engineer Fadi al- Batsh, the minister retorted: "Ask James Bond ... maybe James Bond killed him like in the movies." Al-Batsh, an electrical engineering lecturer at a Malaysian university, was gunned down by two men on a motorcycle as he was on his way to a mosque on Saturday.Hamas, the militant Islamic group that rules Gaza, accuses Israel of assassinating al-Batsh.

Ynet News Women Now Eligible for Position of ‘Knesset Rabbi’ Knesset Rabbi Alexander Hochman will retire in a few months' time, prompting the Israeli parliament to publish a tender in an effort to find his replacement, which may—for the first time in the legislature's history—be a woman. The Knesset first published the tender for Rabbi Hochman's replacement several months ago. One of the original tender's prerequisites said applicants had to present a rabbinical certificate from the Chief Rabbinate. This excluded women from being able to meet the tender's terms, as the Chief Rabbinate bars them from its certification exams. The requirement raised the ire of several women's groups, which were quick to publically oppose itclaiming the tender was discriminatory towards women and was drafted in contravention of the Employment (Equal Opportunities) Law. The Knesset received the appeal and accepted that the tender was discriminatory, and thus Yinon wrote back that the first tender was withdrawn and a new one will be published soon. 3

Al Monitor– April 24, 2018 Why Israel Needs New Regional Alliances

By Efraim Sneh, former Israel deputy minister of Defense

• US President Donald Trump’s March 29 declaration that he is leaving the crisis in Syria to “other people,” and the summit of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani just a few days later, on April 4, vividly demonstrate the grave changes taking place in the region — for Israel as for others.

• Following the new situation in Syria and the American inclination to withdraw from the region, Israel needs to take in the very near future several security steps. With or without American backing, Israel must prevent at all cost Iranian entrenchment in Syria: no bases for the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, for Hezbollah or for Shiite militias, and the zone west of the Suwayda-Damascus highway should be strictly demilitarized.

• Indeed, these necessary military steps by Israel may bring about escalation. But past experience teaches us that acquiescence to Iran’s presence will bring far more costly results.

• A war on Israel’s northern fronts may inflict heavy damage on its civilian population. That's why it is better to prevent such an escalation. This could be achieved only by abandoning the old, inefficient equation, in favor of a new deterrence equation. Israel's warnings that it would destroy Lebanese infrastructure if Hezbollah rains down missiles on its cities do not deter anyone in Tehran. No one in the ayatollah regime cares if Lebanese Sunnis, Christians or even Shiites go without water or electricity. Hence, Israel must make it clear that if its cities are attacked, it will retaliate by targeting Iran’s oil export installations. There are ways to give this equation credibility. Hollow deterrence does not work.

• The roots of Washington’s inclination for withdrawal from the Middle East run far deeper than the anti-intervention mood at home, or the US tendency to focus on internal problems. Oil shale extraction turned the United States from oil importer to exporter, and by 2020 it is even expected to become the No. 1 oil producer globally. And so its fundamental interest in the Middle East — securing the free flow of oil — no longer exists.

• Apparently, the alliance between Israel and the United States is as tight and intimate as ever. However, it is a political-religious alliance, not a strategic one — between the religious Christian right wing of American politics and the religious Jewish right wing of Israeli politics. A political bridge is solid but very narrow. Unfortunately, Israel is losing the sympathy and support of the younger and more liberal America, and the bipartisanship that once cemented US-Israel friendship tragically dissipated during the end-of-term of President Barack Obama.

• Moreover, Israel’s excellent relations with the Trump administration do not mitigate Israel's diplomatic isolation. No matter how much they admire our technological and scientific innovation, our friends abroad do not accept our occupation of the West Bank, our control over the lives of 5 million Palestinians or our thwarting of the two-state solution by constantly establishing and expanding settlements. The massive majority of the international community rejects Israel’s occupation policy. Only nine United Nations members voted for Trump's Dec. 6declaration on Jerusalem; 128 opposed it despite the blunt US threat to cut American aid to them.

• In any future military conflict in the Gaza Strip or on Israel’s northern front, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will need time to attain the objectives of the campaign. But it would be mainly the UN Security Council that would determine the length of such a campaign, by deciding when a cease-fire is declared. Even the current US administration will not be able to give Israel carte blanche to act without a time limit, and its UN Ambassador Nikki Haley would probably not veto such a resolution but join a broad international decision. Consequently, the IDF could be stopped before completing its mission. Simply put, Israel cannot win the wars it has to fight while carrying the burden of occupation.

• But the gravest change in the region is not the withdrawal of the United States per se, but who replaces it. Russia’s might, which filled the vacuum left by Trump, does not stem from net military strength in the region. Rather, Russia’s power derives from lack of any inhibition to brutally use it. This is the essence of Russia's threat.

• Russia really does not consider Israel an enemy. But Moscow made a strategic decision to prefer Iranian interests in Syria over Israeli ones. When the fate of Syria is decided in Sochi, and Israel, Syria's strongest neighbor, is not at the table, Israel gets weaker. The most dangerous event manifesting this weakness is the Trump-Putin agreement on Syria, which legitimized Iran's military presence in Syria. No responsible government in Jerusalem can accept this presence of Iranian strategic installations, plus three Shiite militias, an Iran-Lebanon corridor and Iran’s access to the Jordanian border. To guarantee Israel’s security in this changing environment, Israel must adopt several measures:

• Most important is to establish a new regional alliance, based on the Arab Peace Initiative first proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002 that is still valid until today. It would actually be a defense treaty between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Israel. Its strategic goal would be building a military and technological shield against Iran. It would develop and produce a Star Wars-like project much like President Ronald Reagan's to forestall and pre-empt the Iranian ballistic nuclear arsenal; this would be the result of scientific and financial cooperation among the member states. This new alliance will have additional defensive tasks in thwarting terrorism and subversion in the Middle East.

• To be clear, this indispensable alliance will never be built if the two-state solution is not fully implemented. A clear conclusion from all my meetings across the region in recent years is that there is no Arab leader — no matter how fearful of Iran — who would agree to stand under a defense umbrella with Israel absent this solution, thereby abandoning the Palestinian cause. The solution is a Palestinian sovereign state, in the approximate 1967 borders, demilitarized, with East Jerusalem as its capital. This solution has a price known to all, but we need to remind ourselves of it again. The territory west of the Jordan River should be divided: 78% for Israel, 22% for Palestine. Some 120,000 Israeli settlers would have to move to those settlements that would be annexed to Israel (where the majority of settlers already live), or to other parts of Israel. There cannot be a final agreement without it.

• But the economic rewards and benefits to Israel would be enormous. The integration with the Gulf economies would give the Israeli economy a giant leap forward. All costs of settlements evacuation and their resettlement would be covered by these benefits.

• This new alliance has to be coupled with another regional one in the eastern Mediterranean. A partnership of the three democracies — Greece, Cyprus and Israel — would offer a huge potential for economic and energetic cooperation, linked to Europe and Egypt.

• Integration with our Arab neighbors, a joint resistance to Iranian aggression and peace with the Palestinians — this is how Israel could react to the regional changes. Then Israel could build an economy that would keep its society cohesive and remain the strongest power between the Caspian Sea and Gibraltar. Without such superiority, Israel has no existence.

SUMMARY: To guarantee Israel’s security in this changing environment, Israel must adopt several measures: Most important is to establish a new regional alliance, based on the Arab Peace Initiative first proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002 that is still valid until today. It would actually be a defense treaty between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Israel. Its strategic goal would be building a military and technological shield against Iran. It would develop and produce a Star Wars-like project much like President Ronald Reagan's to forestall and pre-empt the Iranian ballistic nuclear arsenal; this would be the result of scientific and financial cooperation among the member states. This new alliance will have additional defensive tasks in thwarting terrorism and subversion in the Middle East.

Washington Post – April 24 2018 Want to fight anti-Semitism? Teach people about the Holocaust By pollsters Douglas Schoen and Arielle Confino

• Anti-Semitism has become a national crisis in the United States. In 2017, anti-Semitic incidents were up nearly 60 percent from the previous year, according to an Anti-Defamation League report. And in the aftermath of the deadly Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville last summer, an ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 9 percent of Americans believe it is acceptable to hold neo-Nazi views. These trends suggest there is an active, virulent group of neo-Nazis penetrating our society — with acquiescence from President Trump. • What, then, do we do to change an unsettling and arguably dangerous state of affairs? A new survey conducted by our firm Schoen Consulting on behalf of the Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany provides clear guidance. • Our survey found that the more Americans know about the Holocaust, the more likely they are to eschew Nazism, intolerance and any vestiges of anti-Semitism. The message is clear: We need a broad-scale — and indeed, international — strategy to educate people about the Holocaust. • The data from our survey goes deeper than the ABC/Post poll, showing that Americans who had never heard of the Holocaust were twice as likely to condone neo-Nazism than those with knowledge of the Holocaust. Twenty percent of those who have never heard of the Holocaust said it was acceptable to hold neo-Nazi beliefs, compared with just 10 percent of those aware of the Holocaust. • Simple awareness of the Holocaust, however, is not enough. To reduce anti-Semitic and neo- Nazi attitudes, we need to develop detail-specific knowledge about the Holocaust. Just 3 percent of those with detailed knowledge about the Holocaust — such as the ability to name a concentration camp or ghetto, or knowledge that 6 million Jews were killed during the Holocaust — said it was acceptable to hold neo-Nazi beliefs. But clear and straightforward as this strategy may be, there was no endorsement of an education campaign at the 6th Global Forum for Combating Antisemitism, hosted last month in Israel. The need to change course is unambiguous. • While resources such as the ADL Global 100 suggest that general Holocaust awareness in the United States is nearly universal and outright denial is in the single digits, our study shows that many Americans — regardless of their worldviews — are not familiar with critical details of the Holocaust. • About a third of Americans believe that just 2 million Jews or fewer were killed during the Holocaust. And though there were more than 40,000 concentration camps and ghettos during the Holocaust, the survey found that nearly half of respondents could not name a single concentration camp or ghetto. • Millennials are particularly uninformed. More than 4 in 10 millennials believe that just 2 million Jews or fewer were killed during the Holocaust, while nearly half of millennials cannot name a

ghetto or concentration camp. This becomes all the more troubling given that our survey found that 17 percent of millennials say it is acceptable to hold neo-Nazi views. • It’s time we make Holocaust education standardized and compulsory across the 50 states. Right now, only eight states have implemented standardized Holocaust education. It is imperative that the remaining 42 take similar action. More important, we must enhance and expand Holocaust curriculums currently in place — vis-à-vis teacher training and standardized learning plans to ensure that students are learning and retaining the detailed Holocaust knowledge that our survey shows can suppress anti-Semitism. • To be sure, there is no single approach that will ensure that something like the Holocaust never happens again. But the numbers are clear: Despite the range of activities discussed at the conference in Jerusalem last month, or that have been championed by the chattering class and media elites, there is one solution that can be implemented to reduce anti-Semitism and neo- Nazi sentiments: educate poople early. • As we approach the one-year anniversary of Charlottesville, it is critical that we take proactive measures to try to eradicate anti-Semitism in our country. We cannot let the lessons of history be forgotten.

SUMMARY: About a third of Americans believe that just 2 million Jews or fewer were killed during the Holocaust. And though there were more than 40,000 concentration camps and ghettos during the Holocaust, the survey found that nearly half of respondents could not name a single concentration camp or ghetto. Millennials are particularly uninformed. More than 4 in 10 millennials believe that just 2 million Jews or fewer were killed during the Holocaust, while nearly half of millennials cannot name a ghetto or concentration camp. This becomes all the more troubling given that our survey found that 17 percent of millennials say it is acceptable to hold neo-Nazi views. It’s time we make Holocaust education standardized and compulsory across the 50 states. Right now, only eight states have implemented standardized Holocaust education. It is imperative that the remaining 42 take similar action. More important, we must enhance and expand Holocaust curriculums currently in place — vis-à-vis teacher training and standardized learning plans to ensure that students are learning and retaining the detailed Holocaust knowledge that our survey shows can suppress anti-Semitism.