DOCUMENTI IAI 16 | 08E - JUNE 2016 ISSN 2280-6164 © 2016 IAI NATO |Summit |Russia |European Union |Italy southern flank of the Alliance. dialogue with Russia, andtheprojection of stability inthe to theWarsaw agenda,focusing on balancing deterrenceand cooperation. Participants discussedalso theItalian approach could take, particularly on relations with Russia andNATO-EU debate highlighted thepossible strategic decisions theAlliance on 8-9July, aswell astheItalian position on thematter. The issues which will beaddressedat theNATO Warsaw Summit Italy’s national interests. Theseminarwasdevoted tothemain in light of thecurrent international security environment and which aims at stimulating the Italian debate on defence issues 2016 within theframework of theproject “Defence Matters 2016”, seminar hostedbytheIstituto Affari Internazionali on 10 June This document provides thekey elements of aclosed-door ABSTRACT by Alessandro Marrone andEsterSabatino What Agenda for Italy 2016 NATO Summit: keywords DOCUMENTI IAI 16 | 08E - JUNE 2016 ISSN 2280-6164 © 2016 IAI 2 * to combine themilitary dimension with thepolitical anddiplomatic ones, and to retake andexpandthecomprehensive approach. Acomprehensive approach approach. Therefore, participants expect from Warsaw a policy statement aiming response NATO needsandtries tofind also through thenextsummit, isa360-degree East andthesecond bylooking towards South. At theendof theday, thestrategic flanks, indifferent ways, although the formers have beendesigned with a view to defence andthe projection of stability canbeapplied tobothEastern andSouthern the instability intheMiddle EastandNorth Africa. Themeasuresof deterrenceand Putin’s Russia, andthethreat of Islamic terrorism which isstrictly connected with destabilising factors that theAlliance hastofacearetheaggressive postureof Vladimir and on theotherhandprojection of stability intheneighbourhood. Themain Summit will likely be on the one hand deterrence anddefence of NATO members, Therefore, the two main topics to be addressed with more attention at the Warsaw implemented. an instability that cannotbeignored inthedetermination of newstrategies tobe Nevertheless, also the situation in the Southern flank of the Alliance denotes such forces more intheprotection of theCentral and EasternEuropean countries. of beingable tocope with therevived Russian assertiveness, concentrating its Member States. In particular, during thelasttwo years NATO aimedtodemonstrate to show cohesion and determination of theAlliance todefend theterritory of its been developing andimplementation of theReadiness Action Plan(RAP)asaway on collective defence. Consequently, from theWales Summit, NATO’s leitmotiv has However, since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis the Allies have mainly focused security, thelatter encompassing partnership, enlargement andarmscontrol. action, that arecollective defence, crisismanagement operations andcooperative environment. The2010Strategic Concept establishedthreecore tasksfor NATO step for Allies to assess the challenges of the current international security The Warsaw Summit will take placeon 8-9July andwill represent afundamental 1. Towards theWarsaw Summit: theNATO agenda by Alessandro Marrone andEsterSabatino* 2016 NATO Summit: What Agenda for Italy 2016 NATO Summit: What Agenda for Italy . IAI. at Programme Defence and Security the in Researcher Junior is Sabatino Ester (IAI). Internazionali 2016” with the support of the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Diplomacy NATO of the Public support the 2016” with Matters “Defence the project of framework the within (IAI) Internazionali Affari Istituto the by 2016 Report of the seminar “Vertice Nato 2016: quale agenda per l’Italia” organised in Rome on in 10 June organised l’Italia” Nato per 2016: agenda quale “Vertice seminar of the Report Alessandro Marrone is Senior Fellow in the Security and Defence Programme at the Istituto Affari Affari Istituto at the Programme Defence and Security Fellow the in Senior is Marrone Alessandro DOCUMENTI IAI 16 | 08E - JUNE 2016 ISSN 2280-6164 © 2016 IAI 3 to such animportant event denotesRussia’s mistrusttowards theAlliance. military exercise sincetheendof theColdWar andtheabsenceof Russian observers and confidence building measures. Indeed, Anaconda 2016wasthebiggest NATO on thelast7 June –towhich theywereinvited inthe framework of transparency observers to assist to the NATO Anaconda 2016 military exercise held in Poland and thenecessity of more dialogue isalso evident from therefusal by Russian between thetwo parts.After themeetingnojoint communiqué hasbeenissued, Afghanistan, aswell ashow toreduce therisksof misunderstanding andconflict two years. The main topics of the meeting included the situation in Ukraine, members of the NATO-Russia Council officially metagain for thefirsttimeafter Also with theobjective of radically reducing theserisks,on last20thApril the to incidents is. shows how tens the relations between NATO and Russia are and how high the risk Russian aircrafts approaching very close totheBaltic airspace.Thesenumbers its period of responsibility for theNATO Air Policing mission, Italy intercepted 40 defence Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. From January to August 2015, during forces inloco andthis will automatically let theAlliance toactivate thecollective decide toattack acountry of theEasternflank, it would inevitably strike NATO allied ground-troops andmilitary exercises intheregion do. In fact,should Moscow aircraft underNATO aegiscontribute todeterRussia, astherotational presenceof Policing mission of theBaltic skies. In thecurrent context, thepresenceof combat autonomously, some of theAllied Air Forces conduct a4-month rotational Air adhesion toNATO anddue totheirlackof necessarymeanstocarryout thistask including theAir Policing mission of Baltic States. Since theBaltic Republics’ members from Central andEasternEurope through anumber of measures, Since theillegal annexation of CrimeabyRussia, NATO worked toreassureits 2. NATO-Russia relations: deterrenceanddialogue difficult tocounter. and armstrafficking areparticularly conflicts, massive migration flows failed states, latent or overt regional radicalism, presenceandriskof upon which terrorism andreligious challenges coming from theSouth, to go, especially with regardtothe However, thereisstill along way instruments. crisis byusingthe most appropriate adequate answerstotoday’s complex with partners,inorder toprovide to beimplemented incollaboration 2016 NATO Summit: What Agenda for Italy (right) Claudio Bisognero (left), Ferdinando Nelli Feroci DOCUMENTI IAI 16 | 08E - JUNE 2016 ISSN 2280-6164 © 2016 IAI 4 national agendasof theirMember States isneeded. Union’s political agendashiftedeastwards, andanewbalance betweendifferent enlargement inCentral andEasternEurope, theAlliance’s security umbrella of disputes involving Turkey, Cyprus and Greece. Today, after the EU and NATO the two actors regardmainly theirdifferent memberships, particularly due tothe the European Union (EU).Thegreater obstacles hampering cooperation between An important aspect to deal with at Warsaw will be the relations between NATO and 3. NATO-EU cooperation: obstacles andstepsforward (right) Claudio Bisognero (left), Ferdinando Nelli Feroci 2016 NATO Summit: What Agenda for Italy Eastern Europe toenhanceits position intheregion. mind when evaluating therecent deployment of Russia’s military assetsnextto shifted from Vistula eastwardstowards theDon, andthisfactshould bekept in of fact,inthelast25years thepolitical border betweentheAlliance andMoscow conceding to Moscow observers the access to the missile defence sites. As a matter under construction on theNATO-Russia relations. In thissense,it might beof help is necessarytowork tofindasolution limiting thenegative effect ofthesystem altering thestrategic balance inEurope. Given theconstant Russian mistrust,it Russia, themore aftertheconclusion of thenuclear deal with Iran, andthat it is missiles. Moscow, however, believes thissystemismeant tocontain andcounter of othermissiles –anddoes nothave therangenecessarytostrike Russian strategic destroy land or air targets by exploding, but rather conducts a kinetic interception Poland. TheplannedNATO missile defence is notequipped with warheads able to the systemwascompleted inRomania andanotherone isunderconstruction in discussed with Russia is the Alliance missile defence system. Recently, one site of tension on theEasternflank.Afurtherpoint which needstobeexplainedand to Russians thepossible outcome of theWarsaw Summit with theaimtodeescalate During theseminar,participants underlinedthenecessity tocommunicate properly Alliance intheposition toexplainRussia its actions inorder toavoid escalation. in linewith the1997agreement, thismeasureraisesRussian mistrust,posingthe not violate the Act. However, even if deployment of battalion units does border iftheyarenotpermanent, the possibility to deploy forces on the NATO-Russia relations foresees the that the1997Founding Act for of theEasternflank.Considering to reinforce deterrenceanddefence allied multinational forces, in order but not“permanent” presenceof and inPoland toassurea“persistent” units in each of the Baltic Republics rotational deployment of battalion NATO isalso going todecidethe DOCUMENTI IAI 16 | 08E - JUNE 2016 ISSN 2280-6164 © 2016 IAI 5 Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) for regional For theSouthern flank, Italy could work toincreasethe NATO efforts within the eastern Mediterranean for intelligence, surveillance andreconnaissance purposes. the Alliance’s Airborne WArning andControl System (AWACS) inTurkey and inthe the Islamic State, andcould increaseits operational support with thedeployment of is giving its political support to the operations of the international coalition against of theAlliance tocounter thethreats coming from theSouth. For instance,NATO European allies, asit aimstopromote are-balancing of thepolicies andactivities values of theAlliance. Italy’s position differs from the ones Central andEastern approach able to tackle the current security challenges to the interests and shared The Italian view on thenextSummit inWarsaw aimstoachieve a360-degree 4. TheItalian perspective: political andstrategic balance large extent, complementary assetsandexpertise. possible NATO-EU cooperation iscybersecurity, where thetwo actors have, toa the European countries. Another sector still tobeexplored andthat leaves room for NATO andEUprogrammes, inorder tomaximisethelimited defence spendingof As emphasised during theseminar,thereisaneedtoavoid duplication between security andnow defence-related research undertheHorizon 2020programme. development, andtoinvestments of theEuropean Commission indual use, European Defence Agency (EDA) infavour of aEuropean cooperation on capability thanks tothedrafting-process of theEUGlobal Strategy, theefforts of the The EUattention andactivities inthedefence sector have recently increased, security environment. respective areas.Thisinturn encouragesaconvergent analysis of theinternational them tobeconstantly updated on thepolitico-strategic issues discussedintheir their respective representatives totheEUandNATO high-level meetingsallows the two Brussels-based actors isparticularly important, sincetheparticipation of the EUForeign Affairs Council meetings.Thisimprovement inrelations between Stoltenberg normally participate in whereas theSecretaryGeneral Jens attends NATO Ministerial Meetings, Federica Mogherini regularly High Representative/Vice President representatives. In particular, the interaction of theirinstitutional and more importantly -byincreased actors inthesametheatre, but also – in themissions deployed bythetwo only bycooperation on theground NATO andthe EU, represented not improvement inthedialogue between In recent years, therehasbeenan 2016 NATO Summit: What Agenda for Italy Bisognero, Ferdinando Nelli Feroci From left to right: Alessandro Marrone, Claudio DOCUMENTI IAI 16 | 08E - JUNE 2016 ISSN 2280-6164 © 2016 IAI 6 Seminar participants 2016 NATO Summit: What Agenda for Italy the cybersecurity of NATO command andcontrol structures that could bringto As anexample, inthelastyears Finmeccanica-Leonardo won atendertoenhance industry has beenable toreachimportant results within thetransatlantic arena. Finally, it hasbeen underlined that theItalian aerospace, security and defence the economic andtraderelations. options toeasepolitical andmilitary tensions –which inturnhave animpact on is alackof anadequate analysis of theinternational security environment andthe sanctions due tothe negative effect theyarehaving on the Italian economy, there much attention hasrightly beengiven tothedebate on theliftingof EUeconomic of thedeployment of allied military assetsinCentral andEasternEurope. While in Ukraine, the issues related to missile defence, and the strategic implications at theItalian political level theparticipants observed scant attention on thecrisis express opinion about, thedevelopment intheEasternflank of NATO. Notably, From theseminarit emergedthenecessity for Italy toreflect more, andactively France, Germany, Spain andtheMember States of theMediterranean area. dialogue within NATO on thisissue, togetherwith like-minded countries like i.e. crisis management operations. To succeed, Italy should continue promoting a potential deployment inthesouth of allied forces for defence, partnerships or Russian accuse of being aggressive, and it would find less problematic toconceive Eastern flank would put the Alliance inaposition in which it would avoid the the NATO-Russia Council. Abalanced reinforcement of military assets on the deterrence –should belinked tothereopening of dialogue with Moscow trough requests. In Rome’s view, such deployment –which isnecessarytoensureproper military assetsdeployable inthecountries of theEasternflankinrespecttotheir aims to deescalate tensions, by limiting for example the maximum threshold of constant position of balance, moderation anddialogue. TheItalian approach today Regarding NATO relations with Russia, inthelastyears Italy hasmaintained a Bahrain, Jordan, Israel andQatar. the opening of diplomatic missions toNATO of Middle Easterncountries such as a greater willingness toexplore opportunities for collaboration isrepresented by the Warsaw Summit with regardtoJordan andIraq. Moreover, apositive sign of in termsof DCBshould come from necessary support byNATO. Progress transmission of know-how and the the threats inloco, through the would enable partnerstocounter for Defence Capacity Building (DCB) this context, bilateral programmes with thecountries intheregion. In within acooperative framework East should bemore interlinked crises inNorth Africa andtheMiddle Alliance’s actions andtoolstofacethe security andstability. Thesingle DOCUMENTI IAI 16 | 08E - JUNE 2016 ISSN 2280-6164 © 2016 IAI 7 manned andunmannedvehicles. advancements, available options will probably include, but notbelimited to, acquire inorder toreplacetheminthefuture. In fact,thankstothetechnological years, inorder toextendtheiroperational life cycle while discussingwhich systems programmes, themodernisation process of theAWACS will continue inthenext led F-35 multinational procurement programme. As for theNATO procurement innovative, asproved bythewinningof subcontracts intheframework of theUS- small andmedium enterprises proved tobehighly competitive andtechnologically other developments considering therelevance of thetopic. 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