Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 1St to 10Th August 2020

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC-NOCC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 52

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 1st to 10th August 2020

August 2020

Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC).

Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction

This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°52 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major

international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro st th ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1 to 10 August 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment st th st th of the forecasts made for the dekad from 21 to 30 July 2020. This dekad from 1 to 10 August 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Coastal zone (Littoral and South West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY

II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Ngaoundal, Tibati and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaounde, Eseka, Obala and Bafia in the Centre region; - Lomie, Belabo, Batouri, Abong-Mbang, Mintom, Mindourou, Bertoua and Ngoyla in the East region; - Akom II, Zoetele, Djoum, Sangmelima and Ambam in the South region; - Foumban, Mbouda, Tonga, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Massagam and Magba in the West region;

- Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Nguti, Idenau, Fontem, Buea, Kumba, Eyumojock, Ekok and Mamfe in the South West region; - Melong, Ngambe, Ndom, Yingui, Nkondjock, Nyanon, Pouma, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum, and Mbanga in the Littoral region.

The following localities have a high probability of registering a remarkable decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Waza, Kaele, Mora, Mokolo, Bogo, Mindif and Yagoua in the Far North region; - Tchollire and Dembo, in the North region; - Fundong, Wum, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Bamenda, Santa and Benakuma in the North West region;

II.2. For Precipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts in excess of historic values recorded for the same period and in excess of those recorded in the dekad of 21-30 July 2020 in the localities of Bogo, Pette, Zina, Kaikai, Maga, Molvoudaye and Mindif, etc. in the Far North region: A high probability of recording rainfall amounts higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 21 -30 July 2020 in the following localities - Kousseri, Gamboura, Makari, Mokolo, Hina, Mogode, Waza, Mora, Maroua, Bourrah and Kaele in the Far North region; - D embo and Pitoa in the North region; - Mbanga, Yabassi and Edea in the Littoral region. A high probability of recording rainfall amounts around the historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 21-30 July 2020 in the following localities - Batouri and Yokadouma in the East region; - Nkoteng, Akono, Ngomedzap, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Obala, Yaounde, Awae, Endom, Monatele and Nkol-Metet in the Centre region; - Foumban, Mbouda, Makam and Foumbo in the West region. - Douala, Pouma, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Njombe, Penja, Manjo, Ngambe, Mouanko, Dizangue, Ndom, Nyanon and Song Loulou in the Littoral region. 2

NB1: - This dekad from 1st to 10th August 2020 will be marked by a very high risk of flooding in the floodplains of the localities of Bogo, Pette, Zina, KaiKai, Maga, Molvoudaye, Mindif etc. in the eastern part of the Far North region; - Although slightly decreasing compared to the last dekad, the dekad of 1-10 August, 2020 will still be marked by heavy rainfall over the South W est, West and North West regions with high risk of floods, landslides and/or mudslides in many localities of the said regions.

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th August 2020

e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone 1) For precipitations During this period we expect: A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - lower than what was recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2020 in the localities a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Mamfe, Akwaya, Upper Bayang, Tiko, Konye, Mundemba, Bamusso, Buea, Limbe, A high probability of recording; Muyuka, Idenau, Eyumojock, Fontem and Nguti in the South West region. - rainfall amounts higher than the average recorded - higher than the volume registered in the dekad from the 21st to 30th July 2020 in the st th during the dekad of 21 to 30 July 2020 in Gamboura, localities of Mbanga, Yabassi and Edea; around the average at Pouma, Douala, Kousseri, Makari, Mokolo, Hina, Marba, Mogode, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Ndjombe, Penja and Manjo, Ngambe, Ndom, Nyanon,

Waza, Mora, Maroua, Bourrah and Kaele; much higher Dizangue, Mouanko and Song Loulou in the Littoral region. than the average at Bogo, Pette, Zina, Kaikai, Maga , NB3: This dekad will also be marked by; Molvoudaye and Mindif still in the Far North region;

- a very high risk of flooding in the floodplains of the localities of Bogo, Pette, Zina, NB2: During this dekad (1-10 August 2020) there is a KaiKai, Maga, Molvoudaye, Mindif etc., in the eastern part of the Far North region. very high risk of flooding in some localities located in the eastern part of the Far North Region, such as Bogo, Pette, Zina, KaiKai, Maga, Molvoudaye, Mindif etc. - rainfall amounts around the average recorded during the dekad of 21st to 30th July 2020 in Dembo and Pitoa, below the average in Touboro, Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Tchollire, Rey Bouba and Poli in the North region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - below those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Mbakaou, Banyo, Tibati, Ngaoundal, Mayo Baleo, Bankim, Tignere, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - around those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Nkoteng, Akono, Ngomedzap, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Obala, Yaounde, Awae, Endom, Monatele and Nkol-Metet; below the average recorded in the last dekad in Messondo, Bondjock, Ntui, Biyouha, Ngoro, Deuk, Bafia, Yoko and Ngambe Tikar in the Centre region; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2020 at Batouri and Yokadouma; below the aforementioned average at Bertoua, Lomie, Betare-Oya, Moloundou, Garoua-Boulai, Salapoumbe, Belabo, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Mindourou in the East region; st Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad (1-10 August 2020) compared to - around what was recorded in the dekad from 21 to st th th what was registered in the dekad from the 21 to 30 July 2020 30 July 2020 in Lolodorf, Djoum, Kribi, Nyabessan, Source: ONACC, July 2020 Campo, Sangmelima, Ebolowa, Ambam, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region. NB4: This dekad from 1st to 10th August 2020 corresponds to d) In the high plateaux zone (1) the continuation of the rainy season in the Guinea High Savannah zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; (Adamawa region), High Plateau zone (West and North West regions), in the - lower than the mean recorded in the dekad 21st to 30th Monomodal rainfall Forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). July 2020 in the localities of Santa, Ndop, Nkambe, st th Fundong, Benankuma, Kumbo, Bali, Nkum, Bamenda (2) This dekad from 1 to 10 August 2020 will be marked by the extension of the Batibo Ndu, Nkambe and Nwa; around the mean registered small dry season in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East in the same period at and Wum in the North West region; Regions), which will result to a slight decrease in the amount of precipitation in - around the volume recorded in the dekad from 21st to the above regions.; 30th July 2020 in the localities of Mbouda, Foumbot, NB5: During this dekad, because of the already saturated soil, and high rainfall Foumban and Makam; below than the mean registered in the same period at Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, amounts, we note a high risk of recording cases of landslides and/or mudslides Bamendjou, Santchou, Bafang Tonga and Bangangte, in due to waterlogging and heavy rainfall in the Littoral, North-West, West and the West region. South-West regions. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably: 30.75°C in the Far North region, 30°C in the North region, 28.1°C in the Adamawa region, 27°C in the Centre, 27.48°C in the South region, 27.13°C in the East regions, 23.52°C in West, 24.82 in the North West, 26.1°C in the South West region, 24.6°C in the Littoral region, there is a high probability of recording average maximum temperatures;

- around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Waza, Maga and Kousseri; below the historical average at Mora, Bogo, Yagoua, Makary, Kaele, Mindif, Maroua and Mokolo in the - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ako, Fundong, Fur-awa, Wum, Ndop, Far North region; Bali, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep and Nwa; below the historical mean in Benakuma in the North West - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 at Dembo, Lagdo, Touboro, Poli, region Guider, Rey Bouba, Tchollire and Pitoa in the North region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Foumbot, Dschang, Penka Michel, - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Banyo, Ngaoundal and Tibati; Fokoue, Bandja, Batcham, Nkongni, Bazou, Bafoussam and Bangangte and above the mean in below the historical average in Tignere, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; Foumban, Mbouda, Tonga, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Massagam and Magba in the West - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Eseka, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Obala, region; Monatele, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Bafia, Yaounde and Yoko in the - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Centre region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 at Yokadouma, Mindourou, Lomie, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Nguti, Idenau, Fontem, Buea, Kumba, Eyumojock, Ekok Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Abong-Mbang, Mintom and Ngoyla; below the historical average at et Mamfe in the South West region; Betare Oya and Garoua Boulai and around the historical average at Moloundou in the East - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Ngambe, Ndom, Yingui, region; Nkondjock, Nyanon, Pouma, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 at Campo, Kribi, Nyabessan and Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga and around the historical average in Edea in Ebolowa; above the historical average at Akom II, Zoetele Sangmelima, Ambam, Zoetele, and the Littoral region. Djoum; below the historic mean in and Lolodorf and in the South region;

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (a) (b) (Source: ONACC, July 2020)

4 st th Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 July 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2020, there is a high probability of registering mean maximum temperatures:

- around what was recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Lolodorf, Ebolowa and Nyabessan; st th - around those recorded from 21 to 30 July 2020 in Kousseri; below the mean in Maroua, above the mean registered in Campo, Akom II, Ma’an, Ambam Zoetele, Sangmelima, , Kribi Waza, Kaele and Mindif Maga, Yagoua, Mora, Bogo and Mokolo in the Far North region; Akom II, Djoum, Nyete and Mvangan in the South region; st th - around those recorded from 21 to 30 July 2020 in Rey Bouba, Garoua, Tchollire, - around same values recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Muyuka, Limbe, Nguti, Mundemba, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro and Pitoa; below those recorded at Dembo and Guider in the North Fontem, Eyumojock and Konye; below the mean in Mamfe, Buea, Idenau, Kumba and Tiko in the region; South West region; st th - around the values recorded from 21 to 30 July 2020 in Banyo and Meiganga; above - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Mbanga and Mouanko; and above the those recorded in Ngaoundere, Tibati, Ngaoundal and Tignere, and in the Adamawa mean in Melong, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Dizangue Loum, Manjo, Douala, Ngambe, region; Pouma Yingui, Ndom, Nyanon and Edea in the Littoral region. st th - around those recorded from 21 to 30 July 2020 in Bertoua, Lomie, Mindourou, Batouri, - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Munkep, Yokadouma, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou and Betare Oya in the East region; Bamenda, and Wum; above the mean in Benakuma in the North West region; st th - around the values recorded from 21 to 30 July 2020 in Akonolinga, Yoko, Deuk, - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Foumbot, Batcham, Malantouen,

Mbandjock Monatele, Yaounde, Nanga Eboko, Eseka and Messondo; above those recorded Makam, Bangangte, Bazou, Bafang, Dschang, Tonga Kouoptamo, Koutaba and Bafoussam; in Nkoteng, Mbalmayo, Obala, Bafia and Ngoro in the Centre region; above the mean in Foumban and Mbouda in the West region.

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2020 (a) Source: ONACC, July 2020

(a) (b)

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th August 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include:

- Tibati, Ngaoundal and Banyo in the Adamawa region;

- Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaounde, Eseka, Obala

and Bafia in the Centre region; - Lomie, Belabo, Batouri, Abong-Mbang, Mintom, Mindourou, Bertoua and Ngoyla in the East region; - Akom II, Zoetele, Djoum and Sangmelima, Ambam in the South region; - Foumban, Mbouda, Tonga, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Massagam, Magba in the West region; - Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Nguti, Idenau, Fontem, Buea, Kumba, Eyumojock, Ekok and Mamfe in the South West region;

- Melong, Ngambe, Ndom, Yingui, Nkondjock, Nyanon, Pouma, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga in the Littoral region.

a) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 22.2°C in the Far North region, 22°C in the North region, 19.8°C in the Adamawa region, 19.4°C in the Centre region, 20°C in the South region, 19.8°C in the East region, 16.6°C in the West, 16.2°C in the North West region; 20.1°C in the South West region, 20C in the Littoral region, there is a high probability of registering average minimum temperatures: -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kaele, Kousseri, Maroua Yagoua, Mindif and Maga; below the historical average in Waza, Bogo, Mora and -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yaounde, Nkoteng, Yoko, Mokolo in the Far North region; Monatele, Mbalmayo, Obala Eseka, Bafia and Ngoro and in the Centre region; -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, Poli, Rey Bouba, -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bangangte, Bamendjing, Bazou, Pitoa, Guider, Touboro and Lagdo; below the historical average in Tchollire and Dembo Bafang, Mbouda, Dschang, Foumban, Bafoussam, Foumbot, Magba and Tonga in the West in the North region; Region; -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tignere, Mbe, Ngaoundere, - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Fundong, Wum, Bamenda, and Meiganga; above the historical average recorded in Tibati Banyo and Mbakaou in Kumbo, Nwa, Santa, Benakuma and Widikum in the North-West Region; the Adamawa region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tiko, Muyuka, Kumba, Bamusso -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, and Mundemba, Idenau, Buea, Limbe, Eyumojock, Mamfe, Nguti and Fontem and in the South Belabo, Bertoua, Yokadouma, Batouri, Moloundo, Mindourou, Ngoyla and Garoua West region. Boulai; below the historical average in Betare Oya in the East Region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dizangue, Edea, Mouanko, -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi, Campo, Zoetele, Mbanga, Yabassi, Douala, Melong, Nkongsamba, Loum and Penja in the Littoral region. Ebolowa, Djoum, Nyabessan, Lolodorf, Akom II and Sangmelima in the South region;

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period. (a) (b) Source: ONACC, July 2020

7 Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2020 and the average minimum temperatures st th expected for the dekad from 1 to10 August 2020, there is a high probability of registering average minimum temperatures:

-around values recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Mindif, Yagoua, Bogo, Maroua, Waza -above the average recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Ebolowa, Djoum and Zoetele, Akom II, Kaele, Maga, and Kousseri; below the values recorded for the same period in Mora and Mokolo Sangmelima, Kribi, Campo and Nyabessan in the South region; in the Far North region; -above the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Mbouda, -around the same values as recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Mandingrin, Poli, Rey Bouba, Bamendjou, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte, Bamending, Bangangte, Foumban and Magba in the West Touboro , Pitoa, Garoua and Lagdo and below the mean in Tchollire in the North region; region; st th st th - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 July in Tibati, Banyo and Mbakaou; and below -around the average recorded from 21 to 30 July 2020 in Wum, Nwa, Batibo, Bamenda, Bali, the mean in, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in in the Adamawa region; Fundong, Kumbo and Santa; below the average in Benakuma and Widikum in the North West -around the average recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Monatele; below the mean in Region. Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Yaounde, Nanga Eboko, Eseka, Yoko, Ngoro, Mbandjock, Nkoteng and -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Mamfe, Eyumejock and Nguti; below the Obala in the Centre region; mean in Mundemba, Tiko, Kumba, Idenau, Buea, Dikome Balue, Bamusso and Muyuka in the -below the average recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Batouri, Belabo, Abong-Mbang, South-West Region; Bertoua, Mindourou, Ngoyla, Lomie, Bertoua, Garoua Boulai, Batouri, Betare Oya, Yokadouma -above the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2020 in Mbanga, Yabassi, Melong, Loum, Manjo, and Moloundou in the East region; Douala, Mouanko, Nkongsamba, Edea, Dizangue and Penja in the Littoral region;

Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperature forecasts for the (b) dekad from 1st to 10th August 2020 (b) Compared to temperature (a) figures registered for the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2020 (a) Source : ONACC, July 2020

Alerts for minimum temperatures

st th During this dekad from 1 to 10 August 2020, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include; - Waza, Kaele, Mora, Mokolo, Bogo, Mindif and Yagoua in the Far North region;

- Tchollire and Dembo in the North region;

- Fundong, Kumbo, Bali, Wum, Nwa, Bamenda, Santa and Benakuma in the North West region;

IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors d) In the water and energy sector: a) In the agricultural sector: - a high risk of registering cases of destruction of electricity production and A high risk of recording cases of: transmission equipment and materials (poles, transformers etc...) as a result of intense - destruction crops in fields and plantations, fruit trees etc., in the North-West, South-West, rains accompanied by strong winds, as well as lightning in the Centre, Adamawa, East, West, Adamawa and Littoral regions, destruction of maize, millet, groundnuts and cotton South, North West, South, South West, West, Littoral, Far North and North farmlands in the North and Far North regions, following heavy rains accompanied by violent regions; winds, storms and floods ; - a risk of contamination of drinking water by polluted runoff in the Centre, Adamawa, - degradation of stocks or reserves of agricultural products, as well as other speculations East, South, North-West, South, North West, South West, West, Littoral, Far matured but not yet harvested (maize, groundnuts, beans, etc.) due to humidity, in the North and North regions. North-West, South-West, West, Centre, South, East, Adamawa and Littoral regions or e) In the Public Works sector: heavy rains in the Far North and North regions; -high risk of recording cases of: degradation of road works in the Northwest, - rotting of tubers and roots in the soil due to waterlogging in the North-West, South-West, West and Littoral regions. Southwest, West, Far North, North and Littoral regions, due to heavy rains coupled - increased weed proliferation and disease as a result of continuous rainfall in many localities with clogged waste disposal channels; in the Centre, East, South, North-West, South-West, West, Littoral, Adamawa, Far North -destruction of bridges and culverts in some communities in the Northwest, and North regions Southwest, West, Far North, North and Littoral regions due to intense rains and floods. - flooding of crops in low lying areas of the North-West, South-West, West, Littoral, Far North and North regions, following intense rains; f) In the environment and biodiversity sector: b) In the health sector: - A high risk of landslides and/or mudslides due to heavy rains and waterlogging in the A risk of recording cases of: Centre, Littoral, North West, West and South West regions; - an increase in cholera cases in many localities and some large towns in the Sudano-Sahelian - a high risk of flooding in the coastal zone, particularly in the localities of Limbe, Tiko, and monomodal rainfall forest zones; Buea, in the South West region and Douala, Yabassi, Loum, Mbanga, Penja, Melong - an increase in cases of other water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), and Mouanko, in the Littoral region; Garoua in the North region; Bogo, Pette, Zina, following the poor quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones and particularly in Kaikai, Maga, Molvoudaye and Mindif in the Far North region. precarious areas and large agglomerations; - an increase in cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, g) For the urban planning sector: etc.), in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; a high risk of registering cases of : - an exacerbation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, - destruction of public buildings, following heavy rains accompanied by violent winds hypertension, systemic disorders in children, women in menopause, people suffering from in the large conurbations of the Adamawa, Far North, North, North West, South diabetes, in most localities of the country during this period. West, West and Littoral regions;

- floods, landslides and mudslides, following a very significant increase in the c) In the livestock sector: A high risk of recording: quantities of rainfall and waterlogging in the North-West, West and South-West and - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to humid and cold weather in some localities in the Littoral regions; southern part of Cameroun, in the Adamawa, West, North West, South West, North and Far - flooding in certain urban areas with flood-prone and anarchically developed areas, North regions; particularly in the South-West (Limbe, etc.) and Littoral (Douala, Yabassi etc.) - degradation of pastures in many localities in the Adamawa, West, North West, South West, regions.

North and Far North regions due to rains, which stimulate the growth of weed; - cases of drowning of animals following floods in some localities of the Far North region.

10 st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 21 to 30 July 2020

Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Soudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 22.9 23 20 19.5 19 20.4 16 16.1 20 19.8

Trend forecasts

Success rates of Forecasts (%) 81 80 79 84 80 78 81 77 80 80

Maximum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 32.43 31 28.6 27.18 27 27.11 24.6 25.38 25.82 25

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success rates (%) 80 81 77 78 79 81 78 81 79 84

Precipitations

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - continue to maintain crops in the different agro-ecological zones as per the 2020 agricultural calendar proposed by ONACC for the current agricultural season. - Continue the harvesting of certain crops such as maize, roots and tubers etc. according to the agricultural calendar proposed by ONACC in the southern regions of the country.

b) In the health sector - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); - sensitize populations to drink a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol during this period in all regions; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gears in localities experiencing cold nights during this period; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; - Strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases in the Far North region and other localities of the country;

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm