3.15 The local market areas defined in the 2012 SHMA were evidently identified based on a thorough analysis of local market indicators, including commuting, average house prices and contextual data. While the guidance followed in defining the Stoke-on-Trent sub- markets has been superseded by the PPG, it is important to recognise that the PPG does not include a significant amount of additional guidance on defining local market areas below a HMA geography. Indeed, the PPG continues to advocate analysis of the same key indicators – migration, house prices and contextual data, including commuting.

3.16 Given this alignment, it is considered appropriate to retain the sub-market geographies identified within the 2012 SHMA for this assessment. The following table summarises the wards located in each sub-area.

Figure 3.5: Stoke-on-Trent Sub-Area Geographies by Ward

Sub-Area Wards

Zone 1 East; Blurton West and Newstead; Dresden and Florence; Hanford and Trentham; Hollybush and Longton West; North and Normacot; Meir Park; Meir South

Zone 2 Broadway and Longton East; Meir Hay; Meir North; Sandford Hill;

Zone 3 Eaton Park; Fenton East; Fenton West and Mount Pleasant

Zone 4 and Townsend; and Ubberley; and Central Forest Park

Zone 5 Bradeley and Chell Heath; Park; Little Chell and Stanfield; Tunstall

Zone 6 Baddeley, Milton and Norton; Ford Green and ; and Sandyford; Great Chell and Packmoor;

Zone 7 Boothen and Oak Hill; Hartshill and Basford; and Stoke; Springfields and

Inner Urban Core Burslem Central; Eturia and Hanley; and Shelton; Joiner’s Square; Moorcroft

Source: Turley, 2014

Newcastle-under-Lyme

3.17 Analysis of migration patterns allows an understanding of the likelihood of households to move within a particular area, and this therefore provides a valuable starting point in identifying relatively contained sub-market geographies.

3.18 While 2011 Census data on migration was released in July 2014, this covered only local authorities, with sub-authority migration flows not yet released at the time of writing. In the absence of this updated data, the 2001 Census remains the most up-to-date and

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reliable indicator of migration patterns at a sub-authority level. The 2001 Census allows analysis of migration patterns at ward level.

3.19 The following plan shows the proportion of all people moving from an address in each ward of Newcastle-under-Lyme that moved to another address within the same ward, during the year before the 2001 Census. This allows an understanding of the likelihood of moving households within each ward to remain within the same area.

Figure 3.6: Containment of Moves by Ward 2001

Source: Census 2001

3.20 It is evident that there is a varying level of containment within wards in Newcastle-under- Lyme. Households in and Silverdale and Parkside showed a higher propensity to move locally, with over 30% moving to a new address within the same ward. There was also relatively high containment in , Chesterton and Madeley, where more than one in four moves were contained within the ward. However, there was a much lower level of containment in Clayton, Westlands and Porthill in particular, with fewer than 10% of moves contained within the respective ward. Interestingly, as shown on the plan above, containment levels were lowest in the more central areas of Newcastle- under-Lyme.

3.21 As noted earlier, data on commuting is available from the 2011 Census, although this is limited to middle super output area (MSOA) level. Therefore, only a headline analysis of commuting patterns can be undertaken. The following graphic shows the proportion of residents in each MSOA who work within the same MSOA, highlighting containment of

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labour. The graphic also shows significant commuting flows equivalent to more than 150 people, with these shown as red arrows21.

Figure 3.7: Commuting within Newcastle-under-Lyme 2011

Source: Census 2011

3.22 As shown, more central areas of Newcastle-under-Lyme show a high level of containment of labour, although the wider Clayton and Kidsgrove areas are evidently characterised by lower levels of containment, with significant outflows to Stoke-on-Trent. Across the borough, there are clearly significant flows of people commuting to work in the central urban area of Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent, suggesting that this flow is a key characteristic of the housing market area.

3.23 Further context can be provided by considering house price trends. Average house prices have been calculated based on transactions recorded by Land Registry during the calendar year of 2013, with an average calculated for each ward in Newcastle- under-Lyme. This is presented in the following plan to highlight areas of higher and lower value.

21 This analysis was run to highlight commuting flows with more than 150 people from Newcastle-under-Lyme to any MSOA in any authority to show significant movements

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Figure 3.8: Average House Price by Ward 2013

Source: Land Registry, 2013

3.24 The evidence suggests that there are clear areas of higher and lower value in Newcastle-under-Lyme, with the south of the borough characterised by higher average prices and seeing similar values to adjacent areas of East, Shropshire and Stafford, as shown in section 2. Much of the northern area of the borough, meanwhile, has lower values, particularly centred around Audley, Kidsgrove and the north of the town centre.

3.25 When considering both migration trends and house prices – presented above – a number of emerging conclusions can be made. It is evident that the rural south of the borough – largely contiguous with the Loggerheads and Whitmore ward – is characterised by relatively high value property transactions, with a degree of containment of moves within this more rural geography. Equally, it is evident that Keele and Silverdale to the north show a high degree of containment, although there is clear variation in house prices between the two wards. This could suggest the operation of specific local sub-markets, which could – in the case of Keele – be influenced by the university.

3.26 House prices within the town centre and the immediate north are broadly continuous, suggesting a wider local market, while the relatively low containment of moves in this area suggests a higher degree of moves that cross ward boundaries. This can be indicative of a wider local market geography, which shares links with neighbouring Stoke. Clayton to the south – with higher prices than the town centre – may be a more

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local market, albeit one with a low level of containment of moves given the links to Stoke-on-Trent.

3.27 Finally, in the north of the borough, there is evidence of a local market centred around Kidsgrove, which retains a relatively high proportion of moves. Households moving from Madeley also show a relatively high propensity to remain within the ward, while the wider Audley area – which also covers rural areas in the north – is characterised by relatively low value transactions that are reflective of values in Kidsgrove and Newcastle-under-Lyme town.

3.28 On this basis, a number of sub-market areas can be identified, around which further analysis can be constructed. These are summarised in the following table.

Figure 3.9: Emerging Sub-Market Areas by Ward

Sub-Area Wards

Audley and Rural North Audley and Bignall End; Halmerend

Central Bradwell; Chesterton; Cross Heath; Holditch; Knutton and Silverdale; May Bank; Porthill; Silverdale and Parksite; Town; Wolstanton

Clayton Clayton; Seabridge; Thistleberry; Westlands

Keele Keele

Kidsgrove and Talke Butt Lane; Kidsgrove; Newchapel; Ravenscliffe; Talke

Madeley Madeley

Rural South Loggerheads and Whitmore

Source: Turley, 2014

3.29 With sub-market geographies emerging, it is appropriate to test these geographies – based on ward boundaries and reflecting migration and house price trends – against contextual information, in line with the PPG. It is stated that this can include travel to work connections, retail centres and schools, given that these can provide focal points around which households can move.

3.30 The following plan shows the location of retail centres in Newcastle-under-Lyme relative to the emerging sub-markets listed above. This is based on the hierarchy of centres set out within the current adopted Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent Core Spatial Strategy.

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Figure 3.10: Newcastle-under-Lyme Hierarchy of Centres

Source: Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Core Spatial Strategy, 2009

3.31 The analysis indicates that all sub-markets contain at least one local centre, with the central area containing a number of local centres which serve the central population. Keele does not contain a designated centre, however – given the campus-based nature of – it is likely that the campus provides a range of facilities for the large number of students living in this sub-area, while all residents are within a short distance of the significant urban centre of Silverdale.

3.32 Further context can be added by considering the location of schools within the emerging sub-markets. This is presented in the following plan.

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Figure 3.11: Location of Schools in Newcastle-under-Lyme

Source: Department of Education, 2014

3.33 It is evident that all sub-areas contain at least one primary school, with more urban areas generally seeing a greater number of schools. There are fewer secondary schools in the borough, reflecting the fact that they are typically larger and serve a wider catchment area. This means that some sub-areas – primarily the Rural South and Keele – do not contain secondary schools. However, much of these sub-areas fall within the catchment area of .

3.34 Indeed, the catchment areas of secondary schools in particular warrant further consideration, with this illustrated in the following map. As shown, Madeley High School has the largest catchment area, covering the rural south of the borough as well as Keele and Madeley. This catchment area also extends further north to cover Wrinehill and . Kidsgrove and Talke are covered by two relatively small catchment areas, while there are several schools serving a catchment in the emerging Central sub-area.

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Figure 3.12: School Catchment Areas in Newcastle-under-Lyme

Source: Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council, 2014

3.35 This analysis highlights that the proposed sub-areas are served by retail centres – with their status reflecting their size and role in the retail hierarchy – and local educational facilities. This can reflect the operation of specific local markets, with many responding to the location of school catchment areas and retail centres.

3.36 It is evident that the majority of sub-areas are served by their own community facilities. However, it is important to recognise that Keele and the Rural South in particular are reliant upon other sub-areas for some facilities, such as larger retail centres or secondary schools. Given the unique characteristics of these sub-areas, however – driven by the rural nature of the Rural South and the student population associated with Keele University – it is beneficial for the purposes of the SHMA to isolate these areas to identify specific local market characteristics.

Summary and Conclusions

3.37 On the basis of the analysis presented in this chapter, a number of sub-area geographies have been identified in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. As highlighted, the Stoke-on-Trent sub-areas directly relate to work commissioned by the Council which was completed in 2012. Sub-areas in Newcastle-under-Lyme have been primarily defined based on containment of migration within wards, which were tested against house price trends, the location of schools and local centres.

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3.38 It is apparent from the analysis in section 2 of this report as well as this section that the two authorities share strong market linkages. The sub-areas located along the boundary of the two authorities evidently have spatial definitions which extend beyond and into the administrative geographies of the authorities. Given that these spatial geographies are, however, not intended to represent HMAs as defined by the PPG the authorities have sought to maintain an independent list of sub-market geographies to enable the preparation of Local Plan policy. This is reflected in the conclusions of this section and the following plan.

Figure 3.13: Sub-Area Geographies

Source: Turley, 2014

3.39 Analysis within the SHMA report is directly constructed around the sub-areas presented above. This is intended to enable the Councils to prepare responsive policy through the Joint Local Plan.

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