May 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR

IpsosIpsos MORI MORI Political Political Monitor Monitor | |Public Public 1 May 2019 VOTING INTENTIONS

IpsosIpsos MORI MORI Political Political Monitor Monitor | |Public Public 2 Voting Intention: May 2019

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

LABOUR 27% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE 25% LABOUR 28% THE BREXIT CONSERVATIVE 25% 16% PARTY LIB DEM 13% LIB DEM 15% THE BREXIT PARTY 13%

GREEN 7% GREEN 7%

UKIP 4% UKIP 3% CHANGE UK 2% CHANGE UK 2% CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -3 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 10– 14 May 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 733 Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 3 Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Corbyn elected May as PM (Sept 15) (July 16) 60 %

40 May ‘19 30 LABOUR 27% CONSERVATIVE 25% 20

Jul17 Jul15 Jul16 Jul18

Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19

Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18

Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19

Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18

May15 May16 May17 May18 May 19 May GENERAL ELECTION

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 4 Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – May ‘19

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Cameron elected Brown as PM Miliband elected Corbyn elected May as PM (Dec 05) (June 07) (Sept 10) (Sept 15) (July 16) 60 %

May‘19 30 LABOUR 27% CONSERVATIVE 25% 20 THE BREXIT PARTY 16% LIB DEM 15% 10 GREEN 7% UKIP 3%

0 CHANGE UK 2%

Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18

Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19

Oct 06 Oct 11 Oct Oct 04Oct 05Oct 07Oct 08Oct 09Oct 10Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 17Oct 18Oct

Apr 04 Apr 09 Apr 14 Apr 19 Apr Apr 06Apr 07Apr 08Apr 10Apr 11Apr 12Apr 13Apr 15Apr 16Apr 17Apr 18Apr Apr 05Apr GENERAL ELECTION

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 5 May 2019 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

IpsosIpsos MORI MORI Political Political Monitor Monitor | |Public Public 6 Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: May 2019

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Vince Cable The Government

DISSATISFIED 37%

69% 73% 84 % DON’T KNOW 31%

5% 7% 26% 32% 20% 5% SATISFIED NET=-43 NET=-53 NET=-5 10% NET=-74

-3.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 -1.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 +6.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 +0.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 7 Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – May 2019

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?.

2016 EU Ref 60 % satisfied

40 May ‘19

CABLE 32% 30 MAY 26%

20 CORBYN 20%

Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul

Jan 17 Jan Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan

Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun

Oct 18 Oct Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct

Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr

Feb 17 Feb Feb 16 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb

Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep

Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec

Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar

Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug

Nov 15 Nov 18 Nov Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov

May 17 May 18 May May 16 May GENERAL ELECTION

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 8 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

May

MAY

CAMERON

BROWN

MAJOR NET SATISFACTION NET

BLAIR

THATCHER

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 9 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.

Corbyn

CORBYN CAMERON

MILLIBAND HOWARD

NET SATISFACTION NET BLAIR DUNCAN-SMITH

SMITH HAGUE

KINNOCK

FOOT

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 10 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Theresa May’s Government

MAY’S GOV

CAMERON’S GOV

BROWN’S GOV NET SATISFACTION NET BLAIR’S GOV

MAJOR’S GOV

THATCHER’S GOV

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 11 Theresa May Satisfaction

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

May 2019 August 2016 – May 2019

100 % 90 69% Dissatisfied 80 70 DISSATISFIED 69% 60 50 40 30 SATISFIED 26% 20 5% Don’t know 10 0

26% Satisfied

Jun-17 Jun-18

Oct-18 Oct-16 Oct-17

Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19

Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 NET = -43

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 March 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 12 Theresa May Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

May 2019 August 2016 – May 2019

100 % 90 43% Dissatisfied 80 70 60 SATISFIED 50 53% 4% Don’t know 40 DISSATISFIED 43% 30 20 10 0

53% Satisfied

Jun-17 Jun-18

Oct-18 Oct-16 Oct-17

Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19

Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 NET = +10

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 222 Conservative supporters 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 13 Jeremy Corbyn Satisfaction ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

May 2019 September 2015 – May 2019

100 % 90 73% Dissatisfied 80 70 DISSATISFIED 73% 60 50 40 30 20 SATISFIED 20% 10 7% Don’t know 0

20% Satisfied

Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18

Mar-18 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-19

Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18

May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 NET = -53

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 March 2019 .

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 14 Jeremy Corbyn Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

May 2019 September 2015 – May 2019

100 % 90 40% Dissatisfied 80 70 60 50 SATISFIED 54% 6% Don’t know 40 DISSATISFIED 40% 30 20 10 0

54% Satisfied

Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18

Mar-18 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-19

Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18

May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 NET = +14

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 197 Labour supporters 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 15 Vince Cable Satisfaction ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.

May 2019 September 2017 – May 2019

45 % 40 37% Dissatisfied DISSATISFIED 37% 35 30 SATISFIED 32% 25 20 15

31% Don’t know 10 5 0

32% Satisfied

Jul-18

Jan-18 Jan-19

Jun-18

Oct-17 Oct-18

Apr-18 Apr-19

Feb-18 Feb-19

Sep-17 Sep-18

Dec-17 Dec-18

Mar-18 Mar-19

Aug-18

Nov-17 Nov-18

May-18 May-19 NET = -5

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 16 May 2019 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

IpsosIpsos MORI MORI Political Political Monitor Monitor | |Public Public 17 Economic Optimism Index

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

May 2019 January 2007 – May 2019

80 %

Don’t know 70 9% May ‘19 60 Improve 16% GET WORSE 50

51% Get worse 40

30 Stay the same 25% STAY THE SAME 20 GET BETTER 10

0 19

EOI = -35 -

Jul-07 Jul-17

Mar

Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-18

Jun-16 Jun-18

Oct-15 Oct-16

Apr-15 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10

Feb-17 Feb-16

Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-18

Aug-08 Aug-09

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 18 Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

-20 May ‘19 NET OPTIMISM=-35 -40

-60

-80

Jul2011 Jul 1999 Jul 2002 Jul 2005 Jul 2008 Jul 2014 Jul 2017

Jan1998 Jan2001 Jan2004 Jan2007 Jan2010 Jan2013 Jan2016 Jan2019

Oct 1998Oct 2001Oct 2004Oct 2007Oct 2010Oct 2013Oct 2016Oct

Apr 2012 Apr 2000 Apr 2003 Apr 2006 Apr 2009 Apr 2015 Apr 2018 Mar 2019 Mar

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 19 May 2019 POTENTIAL PRIME MINISTERS AND CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP

IpsosIpsos MORI MORI Political Political Monitor Monitor | |Public Public 20 Conservative party leadership

WHEN, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER?

GENERAL PUBLIC AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS

AS SOON AS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 21% 36% AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT HAS AGREED A DEAL FOR 21% HOW BRITAIN SHOULD AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT LEAVE THE EU HAS AGREED A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD 18% LEAVE THE EU ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT 28% ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT 20% THE EU BUT BEFORE THE THE EU BUT BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION NEXT GENERAL ELECTION

AFTER THE NEXT 15% 24% GENERAL ELECTION AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION 11% DON’T KNOW DON’T KNOW 7%

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 21 Prime Minister material?

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? SWING NET SINCE AGREE DISAGREE AGREE MAR ‘19 Boris Johnson 25% 64% -39 +0.5

Sajid Javid 20% 47% -27 -1

Amber Rudd 19% 51% -32 -1

Jeremy Hunt 19% 52% -33 +0.5

Michael Gove 16% 56% -40 +2

Dominic Raab 13% 45% -32 +2

Rory Stewart 11% 30% -19 -

Penny Mordaunt 11% 36% -25 -

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 22 Prime Minister material? Among Conservative party supporters

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? SWING NET SINCE AGREE DISAGREE AGREE MAR ‘19 Sajid Javid 36% 36% 0 +4

Boris Johnson 36% 53% -17 +4.5

Amber Rudd 30% 38% -8 +0.5

Jeremy Hunt 29% 41% -12 -4

Michael Gove 26% 48% -22 -3.5

Dominic Raab 22% 29% -7 +8.5

Penny Mordaunt 21% 28% -7 - Rory Stewart 17% 24% -7 -

Base: 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 23 May 2019 BREXIT

IpsosIpsos MORI MORI Political Political Monitor Monitor | |Public Public 24 LIKE DO NOT LIKE

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY Political parties The Conservative party 33% 58% and their position The Conservative party’s approach to Brexit 12% 79% THE LABOUR PARTY on Brexit The Labour party 36% 55%

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS The Labour party’s approach to Brexit 15% 76% COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS The Liberal Democrats VIEWS OF EACH OF THE 35% 49% FOLLOWING PARTIES AND The Liberal Democrats’ approach to Brexit 28% 56% THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN THE BREXIT PARTY LEAVING THE EUROPEAN The Brexit Party 28% 52% UNION (BREXIT)? The Brexit Party’s approach to Brexit 31% 49% THE GREEN PARTY The Green Party 36% 37%

The Green Party’s approach to Brexit 26% 47% UKIP UKIP 13% 67%

UKIP’s approach to Brexit 22% 58%

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019 CHANGE UK – THE INDEPENDENT GROUP Source: Ipsos MORI Change UK 18% 44%

Change UK’s approach to Brexit 18% 44%

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 25 LIKE DO NOT LIKE

Political parties THE LABOUR PARTY The Labour party and their position 79% 14%

33% 60% on Brexit The Labour party’s approach to Brexit

THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS Among 2017 The Liberal Democrats Labour voters 40% 45%

43% 42% The Liberal Democrats’ approach to Brexit WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS

COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR THE GREEN PARTY VIEWS OF EACH OF THE The Green Party 52% 24% FOLLOWING PARTIES AND

THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN 42% 34% LEAVING THE EUROPEAN The Green Party’s approach to Brexit UNION (BREXIT)? CHANGE UK – THE INDEPENDENT GROUP Change UK 16% 45%

Base: 276 2017 Labour voters 18+ 10-14 May 2019 22% 39% Source: Ipsos MORI Change UK’s approach to Brexit

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 26 LIKE DO NOT LIKE

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY Political parties The Conservative party 69% 25% and their position 18% 76% on Brexit The Conservative party’s approach to Brexit

Among 2017 THE BREXIT PARTY The Brexit Party Conservative voters 41% 40%

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS 50% 31% The Brexit Party’s approach to Brexit COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE UKIP FOLLOWING PARTIES AND UKIP THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN 13% 63% LEAVING THE EUROPEAN 27% 49% UNION (BREXIT)? UKIP’s approach to Brexit

CHANGE UK – THE INDEPENDENT GROUP Change UK 14% 47% Base: 371 2017 Conservative voters 18+ 10-14 May 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI 11% 50% Change UK’s approach to Brexit

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 27 The Conservative party and their position on Brexit

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?

7% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit Conservative Party and their Brexit position 26% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit Total like the party 33%

5% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit Total do not like the party 58% v Total like their approach to Brexit 12%

Total do not like their approach to Brexit 79% 53% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit

9% Don’t know

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 28 The Labour party and their position on Brexit

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?

12% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit The Labour party and their Brexit position

24% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit Total like the party 36%

3% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit Total do not like the party 55% v Total like their approach to Brexit 15%

Total do not like their approach to Brexit 76% 52% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit

10% Don’t know

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 29 The Liberal Democrats and their position on Brexit

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?

21% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit The Lib Dems and their Brexit position

Total like the party 14% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit 35%

7% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit Total do not like the party 49% v Total like their approach to Brexit 28%

42% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit Total do not like their approach to Brexit 56%

17% Don’t know

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 30 The Brexit Party and their position on Brexit

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?

24% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit The Brexit Party and their Brexit position

Total like the party 28% 4% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit 7% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit Total do not like the party 52% v Total like their approach to Brexit 31%

45% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit Total do not like their approach to Brexit 49%

20% Don’t know

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 31 The Green party and their position on Brexit

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?

22% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit The Green party and their Brexit position

Total like the party 36% 14% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit

4% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit Total do not like the party 37% v Total like their approach to Brexit 26% 33% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit Total do not like their approach to Brexit 47%

27% Don’t know

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 32 Handling Britain’s GOOD JOB BAD JOB THERESA MAY GENERAL PUBLIC exit from the 25% 71% European Union CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A 45% 50% GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION? JEREMY CORBYN GENERAL PUBLIC

12% 81%

LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS

c 32% 57%

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 33 Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union

DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?

80% May ‘19

65% BAD JOB 71%

60% 55% 55% 51% 50% 49%

40% 43% 40% 35% 35% 32% 30% GOOD JOB 25% 20%

19 19

18 18

17 17

- -

- c

Jul

Dec

Mar

Oct

Mar

Mar May

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 34 Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union Among Conservative supporters DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?

90% 80% 80% 74% 71% 70% 58% 60% 57% May ‘19

50% BAD JOB 50% GOOD JOB 45% 40%

30% 38%

20% 27% 21% 23% 10% 13%

19 19

18 18

17 17

- -

- c

Jul

Dec

Oct

Mar

Mar May

Base: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 35 Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.

90 May ‘19 77% 79% 80 78% NOT CONFIDENT 80% 72% 70% 67% 69% 70 63% 60% 60% 59% 60 51% 50

40 44% 37% 30 36% 35% 34% 30% 28% 20 25% 23% 21% CONFIDENT 18% 19% 18% 10

Jul

Oct

Jun

Sep

Oct

Dec

Mar

Feb

Mar

May May

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month * In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’’’

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 36 Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain Among Conservative supporters

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.

80 73% 67% 67% 70 66% May ‘19 64% 62% 60% NOT CONFIDENT 64% 56% 60 54% 51% 53% 50

47% 45% 40 43% CONFIDENT 36% 39% 30 34% 36% 37% 33% 30% 32% 20 26%

Jul

Jun

Jul

Sep

Oct

Feb

Dec

May

Mar Oct

Mar May

Base: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month * In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’, Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 37 TRY TO KEEP TRY TO TAKE BRITAIN IN THE EU BRITAIN OUT THE EU Intentions of A CONSERVATIVE GENERAL PUBLIC leaders to leave the GOVERNMENT UNDER THERESA 27% 60% European Union MAY’S LEADERSHIP CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS DO YOU THINK A … WILL/WOULD TRY TO KEEP 20% 70% BRITAIN IN THE EU OR TRY TO TAKE BRITAIN OUT OF THE EU?

A LABOUR GENERAL PUBLIC GOVERNMENT UNDER JEREMY CORBYN’S 53% 30% LEADERSHIP

LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS

38% 46%

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 38 Public opinion SUPPORT OPPOSE GENERAL PUBLIC on cross-party Brexit talks 47% 28%

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CONSERVATIVE AND LABOUR PARTIES ARE HOLDING CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS TALKS TO SEE IF THEY CAN AGREE ON A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION. TO WHAT EXTENT, 49% 35% IF AT ALL DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES HOLDING THESE TALKS? LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS

64% 13%

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 39 Likelihood of the SUPPORT OPPOSE GENERAL PUBLIC Conservatives and the Labour party agreeing 17% 79% on a Brexit deal

CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CONSERVATIVE AND LABOUR PARTIES ARE HOLDING TALKS TO SEE IF THEY CAN AGREE ON A 19% 80% DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION. TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES HOLDING LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS THESE TALKS? 24% 76%

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 40 May 2019 February 2019 How well has the A GOOD JOB Government been 13% 15% preparing for leaving A BAD JOB the European Union without a deal?

WHEN THINKING ABOUT THE 80% 77% POSSIBILITY OF BRITAIN LEAVING THE EU WITHOUT A DEAL, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB PREPARING FOR THIS SITUATION? DON’T KNOW 7% 8%

Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 41 For more information October 2018 Gideon Skinner Ipsos MORI Research Director [email protected]

May 2019 Political Monitor Keiran Pedley Research Director [email protected]

Glenn Gottfried Research Manager [email protected]

IpsosIpsos MORI MORI Political Political Monitor Monitor | |Public Public 42