ISSUE BRIEF No. 3708 | AUGUST 22, 2012

Ethiopia Post-Meles: Washington Should Encourage Reforms Morgan Lorraine Roach

n August 21, Ethiopian Prime for terrorists who have attacked U.S. controversial—and bloody, as hun- OMinister passed partners in the region and expressed dreds were killed in post-election away. Having come to power in 1991 a willingness to strike the U.S. In protests. following the overthrow of the com- response, the U.S. has developed a Economically, has munist Mengistu regime, Meles network of partners in the region to improved but still falls short of its became a regional leader and a counter such threats; among them is potential. After ousting Mengistu, controversial partner to the United Ethiopia. Meles embarked on a path toward States. Meles’s autocratic tendencies Ethiopia has cooperated with limited economic reform. Since 2004, and tight-fisted economic policies the U.S. in the fight against terror- Ethiopia has grown an average of 11 made him a divisive leader. ism. With the encouragement of percent each year, admittedly from With his departure, the U.S. has the U.S., on Christmas Eve 2006, a very low base, on the strength of an unprecedented opportunity to Ethiopia launched a military inva- modest increases in foreign direct encourage democracy and economic sion into , decimating the investment. While such advance- reform and bolster the security part- Islamic Courts. Since withdrawing ments are encouraging, significant nership between the two nations. from Mogadishu in 2009, Ethiopia challenges remain. U.S. Interests. The U.S. has an has limited its military operations. During his rule, Meles opposed interest in preventing the establish- However, Ethiopia’s geographic prox- private ownership of land and ment of safe havens for terrorism imity to Somalia requires a certain refused to privatize the telecom- that can serve as a base for organized level of engagement. muniations industry. International transnational terrorist campaigns In 2011, the U.S. began flying banks were also barred from com- against the U.S., its allies, and their unarmed drone aircraft from a newly peting in the Ethiopia market. Other interests. Ethiopia’s southern neigh- operational base in the southern barriers include high tariff and bor Somalia has turned into a hub city of Arba Minch. The Ethiopian non-tariff policies, which constrain military also conducts cross-border the freedom to trade.1 The govern- operations and refugee assistance to ment also restricts access to financ-

This paper, in its entirety, can be found at displaced Somalis. ing, thus preventing entrepreneurial http://report.heritage.org/ib3708 Democratic Void. As an growth. Produced by the Douglas and Sarah Allison authoritarian leader, Meles and his Troubled Part of the World. Center for Foreign Policy Studies Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Ethiopia is geographically situated The Heritage Foundation Democratic Front (EPRDF) in a tough neighborhood. To the 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 oppressed political liberties by west lies Sudan, which is locked in a (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org curtailing democracy and the rule decades-long conflict that resulted Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily of law. The general elections in in the South’s secession in July 2011. reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill 2005 and 2010 were particularly Under the Bush Administration, before Congress. ISSUE BRIEF | NO. 3708 AUGUST 22, 2012

the U.S. was a major broker of the death as an opportunity to expand Ethiopian government should also Comprehensive Peace Agreement its influence in the region. share information regarding the that ended the civil war in 2005 and Somalia presents a unique chal- transition with the United States remains committed to peace and sta- lenge for Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s south- so Washington can better coordi- bility in the region. eastern Ogaden region, formerly nate bilateral relations. Unlike many international part of Somalia, fuels concerns of governments (including the U.S.), Somali irredentism. In 1977, Somalia, ■■ Encourage the creation of Meles was able to balance relations under the leadership of , civil society. The creation of a between Khartoum and Juba and attempted to exploit the Ethiopian vibrant civil society must hap- provided a forum in Revolution by unsuccessfully seizing pen organically. Opposition for the two countries to negotiate the Ogaden. In 2007, the Ethiopian groups have made progress in outstanding issues. He also deployed military brutally cracked down on recent years, and the ability of the troops to the disputed border the Ogaden National Liberation Muslim groups to protest openly region of Abyei under the United Front, a rebel group which it regards suggests a shift in the govern- Nations Interim Security Force for as a terrorist organization. ment’s intolerance to opposi- Abyei. Perceived as unbiased actors, Moving Forward: U.S.– tion. Furthermore, the EPRDF’s Ethiopian troops provide a trustwor- Ethiopia Relations. In accordance stronghold on power has built up thy presence between the North and with the Ethiopian constitution, fol- resentment, which, if violently the South. lowing Meles’s death, Deputy Prime suppressed, might be more dif- Ethiopia’s relations with its north- Minister Hailemariam Desalegn ficult to contain than in the past. ern neighbor, Eritrea, are particular- will be sworn in as prime minister The U.S. should convince the ly poor. Upon coming to power, Meles pending an emergency session of EPRDF that the country would recognized Eritrea’s right to self- parliament. A committee will then benefit from an inclusive soci- determination, and in 1993, Eritrea determine whether Hailemariam ety whereby the interests of all seceded from Ethiopia. The two will remain in office until the 2015 Ethiopians are considered. countries went to war in 1998 when election. Competition for the post is Eritrea seized disputed territory. likely to be fierce, and a number of ■■ Demand that the government After two years and approximately actors are vying for leadership. respect human rights and indi- 100,000 dead on both sides, Ethiopia As the government in Addis Ababa vidual liberties. Meles’s passing claimed victory. determines its next steps forward, provides an opportunity for the Relations have continued to be the Obama Administration should do U.S. to take a firmer hand with rocky. In March, Ethiopia struck the following: Ethiopia’s next leader. Ethiopia rebel bases inside Eritrea in retalia- has benefited from significant tion for violating Ethiopia’s territo- ■■ Encourage a swift transition U.S. aid since Meles came to rial integrity. While approximately that is conducted in a free and power. The U.S. should stress that 50 percent of Eritrea’s population is transparent manner. Ethiopian repetitions of the 2005 and 2010 Christian, Isaias Afewerki’s regime politics is often conducted behind election aftermath will not be uses Islamic terrorists as a proxy closed doors. The secrecy sur- tolerated and there will be reper- force against Ethiopia. Some poli- rounding Meles’s health is a prime cussions if similar actions occur cymakers in Washington, including example. As a steward for the in the future. Representative Ed Royce (R–CA), Ethiopian people, the government have supported the listing of Eritrea owes its citizens timely and accu- ■■ Support economic freedom. as a state sponsor of terror—but to rate information about how their The U.S. should encourage no avail.2 Eritrea could use Meles’s interests are being addressed. The Ethiopia to reduce its tariffs and

1. See Terry Miller, Kim R. Holmes, and Edwin J. Feulner, 2012 Index of Economic Freedom (Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation and Dow Jones &Company, Inc., 2012), p. 187, http://www.heritage.org/index/country/ethiopia. 2. See Representative Ed Royce (R–CA), letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, July 20, 2010, http://royce.house.gov/uploadedfiles/royce_ltr_to_ clinton.7.20.10.eritrea.state_sponsor.pdf (accessed August 21, 2012).

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reform financial regulation to pro- the military to be as involved as continue to be a priority for the U.S. vide aspiring entrepreneurs with it has in the past. However, with Both countries should also bear in greater access to investment capi- Meles gone, terrorist groups could mind the many opportunities for tal. Other needed reforms include see a weakened Ethiopia as an improvement that should not be allowing private land ownership, opportune target. The U.S. should ignored. opening up banking competition, encourage the military to main- —Morgan Lorraine Roach is a and privatizing the telecommuni- tain its current levels of coopera- Research Associate in the Douglas cations industry. tion and look for opportunities to and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign bolster mutual security interests. Policy Studies, a division of the ■■ Continue counterterrorism Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis cooperation. Ethiopia is a major An Opportunity for Institute for International Studies, at security player in the region. Improvement. As Ethiopia embarks The Heritage Foundation. However, Meles’s death may trig- on the selection of a new leader, secu- ger apprehension on behalf of rity relations in the region should

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