eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Lane Information from CPHC Advisory 36, 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 23, 2018 On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over the portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws closer to the islands.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 130 mph Position Relative to 210 miles S of Kailua-Kona Speed: (category 4) Land: 305 miles SSE of Honolulu Main HI Islands Thu Est. Time & Region: through Fri Min Central Pressure: 949 mb Coordinates: 16.9 N, 157.4 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 74+ mph 140 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 320 degrees at 7 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (category 1+)

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Lane moving near the Hawaiian Islands over the next 4 days at hurricane strength. To illustrate the uncertainty in Lane’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday. ■ Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

■ Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands this week. These swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along exposed

west and south facing shorelines.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Lane Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Lane

TD TS Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Ca t 4 Al l F c st Tr ac ks l9 2016 l i

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The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use.

Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning, meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours is in effect for , County - including the islands of Maui, Lanai, , and Kahoolawe, and County. A Hurricane Watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours, is in effect for County – including the island s of Kauai and Niihau

Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities at 2 AM HST Thu Aug 23 for the Next Five Days The maps below show probabilities of maximum sustained wind speeds over the next five days. The map at lower left shows the Hawaiian Islands with chances ranging from 50% to 90% of seeing tropical storm force wind speeds (39 - 73 mph). The map at lower right shows the Islands with chances between 5% and 20% of seeing hurricane force wind speeds (74+ mph).

Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds and New Potential Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five Lane, centered about 335 miles south of Kailua-Kona. Elsewhere, no days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days. track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years

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