Connecting Markets East & West
The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization
Richard C. Koo, Chief Economist Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo +81-3-5877-7401 [email protected]
See Appendix A-1 for important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts.
March 2018 Exhibit 1. Politics in Disarray because Economies Are in the Overlooked Other-half of Macro-Economics
Borrowers (=investors)
Yes No advanced 1 3 economies Yes are all here
Lenders
(=savers)
No 2 4
Textbook world Overlooked other-half (private sector (private sector maximizing profits) minimizing debt)
1. Lenders and borrowers are present in sufficient numbers (textbook world) ⇒Ordinary interest rates 2. Borrowers are present but not lenders due to the latter's bad loan problems (financial crisis, credit crunch) ⇒Loan rates much higher than policy rate 3. Lenders are present but not borrowers due to the latter's balance sheet problems and/or lack of investment opportunities (balance sheet recession, "secular" stagnation) ⇒Ultra-low interest rates 4. Borrowers and lenders both absent due to balance sheet problems for the former and bad loan problems for the latter (aftermath of a bubble burst) ⇒Ultra-low interest rates, but only for highly rated borrowers
1 Exhibit 2. Private Sector1, 2, 3 Borrowers Disappeared5 after 2008
Average Annual Private Sector Financial Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
(% of GDP) (% of GDP)
from Q4 from Q4 5 years to latest 4 5 years to latest 4 2008 to 2008 to Q3 2008 quarters Q3 2008 quarters present4 present4
3 UK -0.02 2.11 -1.32 Germany 8.46 6.41 7.99
5 US 0.53 4.94 3.76 France 2.42 2.33 1.21
5 Canada -0.02 -1.57 -2.16 Italy 1.48 3.21 6.71
2 Japan 7.68 8.65 7.13 Spain -8.03 6.99 5.15
Korea -1.89 3.94 3.65 Greece 0.39 1.56 -0.06
Australia -7.81 0.09 -0.19 Ireland -4.88 7.41 -2.44
Eurozone 1.66 4.94 4.25 Portugal -3.97 4.24 1.69
1. private sector = household + corporate + financial sectors 2. Entered balance sheet recession in 1990 (see Exhibits 12, 13) 3. Entered balance sheet recession in 2000 4. Until Q3 2017. 5. Except Canada and France Source: Nomura Research Institute, based on these countries' flow of funds and national accounts data
2 Exhibit 3. Drastic Liquidity Injections Resulted in minimal Increases in Money Supply and Credit (I): US
(Aug. 2008 =100, seasonally adjusted) 500 Monetary Base 450 456 Money Supply (M2) 400 Loans and Leases in Bank Credit 350
300
250
200 178 150 100 131 100
50
3.0 (%, yoy) Consumer Spending 2.5 Deflator (core) 2.0 1.5 +1.52% 1.0 0.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Note: Commercial bank loans and leases, adjustments for discontinuities made by Nomura Research Institute. Sources: Federal Reserve Board; US Department of Commerce
3 Exhibit 4. Drastic Liquidity Injections Resulted in minimal Increases in Money Supply and Credit (II): Eurozone
375 (Aug. 2008 =100, seasonally adjusted) 350 Base Money 325 Money Supply (M3) 338 300 Credit to Euro Area Residents 275 250 225 200 175 150 130 125 100 100 102 75 2.4 (%, yoy) CPI core 2.0 1.6 1.2 +1.0% 0.8 0.4 07/1 07/7 08/1 08/7 09/1 09/7 10/1 10/7 11/1 11/7 12/1 12/7 13/1 13/7 14/1 14/7 15/1 15/7 16/1 16/7 17/1 17/7 18/1
Note: Base money's figures are seasonally adjusted by Nomura Research Institute. Sources: European Central Bank; Eurostat
4 Exhibit 5. Drastic Liquidity Injections Resulted in minimal Increases in Money Supply and Credit (III): UK
700 (Aug. 2008 =100, seasonally adjusted) 698 650 1 Reserve Balances + Notes & Coins 600 Money Supply (M4) 550 Bank Lending (M4) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 139 100 91 50
(%, yoy) 6 CPI (ex. Indirect Taxes) 5 4 3 2.8% 2 1 0 -1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Notes: 1. Reserve balances data are seasonally unadjusted. 2. Money supply and bank lending data exclude intermmediate financial institutions. Sources: Bank of England; Office for National Statistics, UK
5 Exhibit 6. Drastic Liquidity Injections Resulted in minimal Increases in Money Supply and Credit (IV): Japan
1400 (1990 Q1 = 100, seasonally adjusted) Quantitative and 1309 1300 Quantitative Qualitative Easing Easing 1200 Monetary Base 1100 Money Supply (M2) 1000 Bank Lending Earthquake 900 800 Bubble Burst 700 600 500 400 300 213 200 100 1 100 120 0 4 (%, yoy) 3 2 1 0.9%2 0 -1 -2 CPI Core (ex. fresh food) -3 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Notes: 1. Figures for bank lending are seasonally adjusted by Nomura Research Institute. 2. Excluding the impact of consumption tax. Source: Bank of Japan
6 Exhibit 7. No Acceleration in Private Sector Credit or Money Supply Growth after the BOJ’s QQE
360 (2013 Mar. = 100, seasonally adjusted) Monetary Base 340 345 Money Supply (M2) 320 Bank Lending 300 280 Gov. Kuroda 260 240 220 Gov. Shirakawa 200 180 160 140 118 120 100 115 100 80 2 (%, yoy) CPI Core (ex. fresh food) 1 0.9%2 0
-1 12/1 12/7 13/1 13/7 14/1 14/7 15/1 15/7 16/1 16/7 17/1 17/7 18/1
Notes: 1. Figures for bank lending are seasonally adjusted by Nomura Research Institute. 2. Excluding the impact of consumption tax. Sources: Bank of Japan and Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
7 Exhibit 8. Europe & US Experienced House Price Bubbles, except Germany
(end of 1995 = 100) 550 525 513 500 Ireland 475 450 Greece 425 Spain 400 Germany Ireland 375 Netherlands 384 342 350 US 325 303 300 293 US 283 275 Netherlands 276 250 271 225 Spain 200 222 175 Greece 150 189 125 Germany 92 127 100 75 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Notes: 1. Ireland's figures before 2005 are existing house prices only. 2. Greece's figures are flats' prices in Athens and Thessaloniki. Sources: Nomura Research Institute, calculated from Bank for International Settlements and S&P Dow Jones data.
8 Exhibit 9. Japan’s GDP Grew despite major Loss of Wealth and Private Sector De-leveraging
(Sep. 1990 = 100) (Sep.1990=100, seasonally adjusted) 160 145 Nominal GDP (Right Scale)
140 130 Real GDP (Right Scale) 120 115 Cumulative 90-05 GDP Reported Fiscal Multiplier Supported by 100 100 Actual Government Likely GDP Path Fiscal Action: w/o Government Action 80 Multiplier 85 ~ ¥2000 trillion
60 70 US GNP Shrunk 46% 1929→1933 40 55 Last seen in 1973 Cumulative down Loss of 87% 20 40 Wealth on Land Price Index in Six Major Cities Shares and (Commercial, Left Scale) Real Estate 0 25 ~ ¥1500 trillion 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sources: Cabinet Office,Japan; Japan Real Estate Institute
9 Exhibit 10. Japan’s Challenge: Overcoming Problems of Balance Sheets and Inferior Return on Capital
Financial Surplus or Deficit by Sector
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %) 15 (Financial Surplus) 12 Households 9
6 Rest of Private Sector the World 3 Savings: 7.13% of GDP 0
-3
-6
-9 Corporate Sector General Government -12 Global (Non-Financial Sector + Balance Sheet Financial Financial Sector) Recession -15 Crisis (Financial Deficit) -18 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Note: All entries are four-quarter moving averages. For the latest figures, four-quarter averages ending in 2017 Q3 are used. Sources: Bank of Japan, Flow of Funds Accounts, and Government of Japan, Cabinet Office, National Accounts
10 Exhibit 11. Japanese Non-financial Companies Are Finally Beginning to Borrow, but Are still Net Savers
(as a percentage of nominal GDP) (as a percentage of nominal GDP, inverted) 25 -25
20 -20 left scale Financial Assets 15 -15
10 -10
5 -5
0 0
-5 5
-10 10
-15 15
-20 20 Financial Liabilities right scale -25 25
-30 30 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 (FY) Note: For the latest figures, four-quarter averages ending in 2017 Q3 are used. Sources: Bank of Japan, Flow of Funds Accounts, and Government of Japan, Cabinet Office, National Accounts
11 Exhibit 12. Three Stages of Economic Development: Urbanization, Industrialization and Globalization
wages Labor demand curve S Advanced Wage level high Q P countries are enough to invite foreign all here competition A
Industrialization D4 B L Capital's share C (investment) Labor supply (i) curve H K D3 D G Worker's share D1 Lewis Turning Point (consumption) D2 (ii) (LTP) number of E workers F I J M N
Urbanization phase Golden Era Pursued phase where capitalists prosper where everyone benefits where only those with from economic growth advanced ideas prosper
Take-off period Fast growth Weak growth Urbanization Export-led globalization Import-led globalization Widening income inequality Narrowing income inequality Re-widening income inequality Strong investment Rapid increase in investment Shrinking investment opportunities Weak consumption Rapid increase in consumption Very careful consumers
Source: Nomura Research Institute 12 Exhibit 13. Effectiveness of Monetary & Fiscal Policies in Three Stages of Economic Development
Effectiveness Fiscal Policy (B/S recession) (ordinary times)
Monetary Policy (ordinary times) (B/S recession)
Time Urbanizing Era Golden Era Pursued Era
• Flat wages and prices • Rising wages and prices • Flat wages and prices • Strong demand for funds • Strong demand for funds from • Return on capital higher abroad from public sector for businesses for capacity and but households still saving needed infrastructure productivity enhancing investments • Government must borrow and • Central bank must remain spend excess private savings on highly vigilant toward inflation self-financing projects
13 Exhibit 14. US Nonfinancial Companies’ Demand for Funds Shrunk after 1990
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, seasonally adjusted) (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, inverted, seasonally adjusted) 20 -20 left scale Financial Assets
15 -15
10 -10
5 -5
0 0
-5 5
-10 10
-15 15 Financial right scale left scale Financial Liabilities Surplus/Deficit -20 20 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 Notes: Latest figures are for 2017 Q3. Sources: Nomura Research Institute, based on flow of funds data from FRB and US Department of Commerce
14 Exhibit 15. US Monetary Policy Has Grown Less Effective Starting in 1990s
(%) 5 16 Chicago Fed’s National Financial Condition Index 14 4 Policy rate (rhs) (lhs)
Tighter financial 12 3 conditions
10 2
8
1 6
0 4
-1 2 Looser financial conditions -2 0 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 Note: In the Chicago Fed’s national financial conditions index (NFCI), 0 represents the average from 1971 to the present. Prior to 1987, when the Fed began targeting fed funds rate, the policy rate in the graph refers to the official discount rate. Since the Fed began targeting a corridor of values for fed funds, the graph shows the top end of the Fed’s target range. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, “National Financial Conditions Index”
15 Exhibit 16. US Private Sector Has Been Saving 4.94% of GDP on Average with Zero Interest Rates since 2008
Financial Surplus or Deficit by Sector (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, quarterly) 10 Households (Financial Surplus) Rest of the World Private sector 5 savings 3.76% of GDP (average 4.94% since 0 2008)
-5
General -10 Government Corporate Sector (Non-Financial Sector + Financial Sector) IT Bubble Housing (Financial Deficit) Bubble -15 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Note: All entries are four-quarter moving averages. For the latest figures, four-quarter averages ending in 2017 Q3 are used. Sources: FRB, US Department of Commerce
16 Exhibit 17. Some US Households Are Starting to Borrow Money
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, seasonally adjusted) (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, inverted, seasonally adjusted) 20 -20
left scale Financial Assets left scale Financial Surplus/Deficit 15 -15
10 -10
5 -5
0 0
-5 5
-10 10 Financial Liabilities right scale
-15 15 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Notes: Latest figures are for 2017 Q3. Sources: Nomura Research Institute, based on flow of funds data from FRB and US Department of Commerce
17 Exhibit 18. Spanish Households Have Been Deleveraging since 2008
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, seasonally adjusted) (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, inverted, seasonally adjusted) 20 -20
left scale Financial 16 Assets Financial -16 left scale Surplus/Deficit 12 -12
8 -8
4 -4
0 0
-4 4
-8 8
-12 12 Financial Liabilities right scale
-16 16 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Notes: Seasonal adjustments by Nomura Research Institute. Latest figures are for 2017 Q3. Sources: Nomura Research Institute, based on flow of funds data from Banco de España and National Statistics Institute, Spain
18 Exhibit 19. Irish Households Increased Borrowings after the Dotcom Bubble: Now They Are Deleveraging
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, seasonally adjusted) (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, inverted seasonally adjusted) 20 -20 left scale Financial Assets left scale Financial 15 Surplus/Deficit -15
10 -10
5 -5
0 0
-5 5
-10 10
-15 15 Financial right scale Liabilities -20 20
-25 25 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Notes: Seasonal adjustments by Nomura Research Institute. Latest figures are for 2017 Q3. Source: Nomura Research Institute, based on flow of funds data from Central Bank of Ireland and Central Statistics Office, Ireland
19 Exhibit 20. Italian Households Stopped Borrowing Money after 2011
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, seasonally adjusted) (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, inverted, seasonally adjusted) 18 -18 left scale Financial Assets 15 left scale Financial -15 Surplus/Deficit
12 -12
9 -9
6 -6
3 -3
0 0
-3 3
-6 6 Financial Liabilities right scale
-9 9 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Notes: Seasonal adjustments by Nomura Research Institute. Latest figures are for 2017 Q3. Source: Nomura Research Institute, based on flow of funds data from Banca d'Italia and Italian National Institute of Statistics
20 Exhibit 21. Greek Households Are Deleveraging but also Withdrawing Past Savings to Survive
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, seasonally adjusted) (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, inverted, seasonally adjusted) 30 -30
left scale Financial Assets left scale Financial 25 Surplus/Deficit -25
20 -20
15 -15
10 -10
5 -5
0 0
-5 5
-10 10
-15 15
-20 Financial Liabilities right scale 20
-25 25 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Notes: Seasonal adjustments by Nomura Research Institute. Latest figures are for 2017 Q3. Sources: Nomura Research Institute, based on flow of funds data from Bank of Greece and Hellenic Statistical Authority, Greece
21 Exhibit 22. German Households Stopped Borrowing altogether after the 2000 Dotcom Bubble
(as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, seasonally adjusted) (as a ratio to nominal GDP, %, inverted, seasonally adjusted) 12 -12
left scale Financial Assets left scale Financial 10 Collapse of Surplus/Deficit -10 the Dotcom 8 Bubble -8
6 -6
4 -4
2 -2
0 0
-2 2
-4 4 The reason for German -6 Financial house prices falling 6 right scale Liabilities noted on page 8 -8 8 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Note: Seasonal adjustments by Nomura Research Institute. Latest figures are for 2017 Q3. Sources: Nomura Research Institute, based on flow of funds data from Bundesbank and Eurostat
22 Exhibit 23. The Collapse of Neuer Markt in 2001 Pushed the German Economy into Balance Sheet Recession
(Dec. 31, 1997 = 1000) 10000
9694.07 9000
8000
7000
6000 -97%
5000
4000
3000 2621.55 TecDAX
2000
1000
306.32 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Bloomberg, as of February 27, 2018
23 Exhibit 24. Peripheral Eurozone Countries Are Doing Better Because of Fall in Wages
European Unit Labor Costs (2000 = 100, Seasonally adjusted) 160
150 Germany Spain
140 Greece Ireland 130 Portugal
120
110
100
90 Competitiveness Gap
80 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Source: Nomura Research Institute, based on OECD data
24 Exhibit 25. Eurozone Economy Supported by External Surplus
(EURbn, seasonally adjusted) 50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Eurostat
25 Exhibit 26. QE Exit Is more difficult than QE Entrance: QE Central Banks Must Retract Reserves to Avoid Credit Explosion
Bank Reserves as Multiples of Required Reserves (x) 35
Bank reserves ÷statutory reserves 30
Japan 33.1x 25 U.S. 11.8x Eurozone 10.7x 20 U.K. 16.4x Switzerland 29.5x 15
10
5 normal level of reserves 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Note: The Bank of England has suspended reserve requirement in March 2009. The post-March 2009 figures are based on the assumption that the original reserve requirement is still applicable. Sources: Nomura Research Institute, based on BOJ, FRB, ECB, BOE and SNB data
26 Exhibit 27. Asset Price Bubbles Are also Prompting the Fed to Normalize Monetary Policy
(Dec. 2000 = 100) 240
+39.0% 220 RCA commercial real estste S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home index Price Index: San Francisco (major 6 cities, all uses) 200 +15.6%
180
US enacts 160 "Pretend & Extend"* (Oct. 2009) 140
120
100
80 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Note: "Policy Statement on Prudent Commercial Real Estate Loan Workouts" (October 30, 2009) Source: Nomura Research Institute, based on the data from Real Capital Analytics; "Moody’s/REAL CPPI," and S&P Dow Jones Indices; "S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices"
27 Exhibit 28. Fed’s Balance Sheet Normalization Process
($bn) 5000
Normalization started 4000 (Oct. 2017)
Actual reserves = Required 3000 reserves (Jun. 2021)
2000
1000
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual reserves Currency in circulation Required reserves
Note: Reserve balances, currency in circulation, and required reserves are assumed to follow the trends observed from January 2015 to May 2017. Source: Nomura Research Institute, based on Fed data; estimates by Nomura Research Institute
28 Exhibit 29. Additional Private Savings Required as Fed Stops Reinvesting in USTs and MBS
($bn) 1400
600 600 3.23% of GDP 1200 450 240 240 1000 300 180 MBS may expand 800 120 under Trump 360 360 US 270 Treasuries 180 600
400 US budget deficit for 200 2016
0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (FY) Notes: US fiscal accounting year runs from October to following September. MBS = mortgage backed secirities Source: Nomura Reserch Institute
29 Exhibit 30. Additional Private Savings Required if ECB Stops Reinventing
(€bn) 600
500 325.1 325.1 3.03% of GDP
400 227.5
300 162.5
200 16.3
100 Eurozone budget deficit for 2016 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (CY) Notes: Assumes US-style normalization will be conducted from Oct 2017 to Jun 2021. Fiscal deficit represents net borrowings of general government. Source: Nomura Reserch Institute based on ECB and Eurrostat data
30 Exhibit 31. Additional Private Savings Required if BOE Stops Reinventing
(GBP bn) 180
160 126.5 126.5 6.52% of GDP
140 107.6
120
100
80
60 31.6 19.0 40
20 UK budget deficit 0 for 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (FY) Notes: Assumes US-style normalization will be conducted from Oct 2017 to Jun 2021. UK fiscal accounting year runs from April to following March. Fiscal deficit represents net borrowings of national government Source: Nomura Reserch Institute
31 Exhibit 32. Additional Private Savings Required if BOJ Stops Reinventing
(¥tn) 160
140
94.6 94.6 17.63% of GDP 120 80.4
100
80
60 23.7 14.2 40
20 Japan's budget deficit for 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (FY) Notes: Assumes US-style normalization will be conducted from Oct 2017 to Jun 2021. Japan's fiscal accounting year runs from April to following March. Source: Nomura Reserch Institute, based on MOF and BOJ data
32 Exhibit 33. QE ‘Trap’: Long-term Interest Rates or Exchange Rates Could Go sharply higher when the QE Is Unwound
Images of Long-term Interest Rates with and without QE
(Long-term interest rate)
without QE QE "Trap"
with QE
Beginning of Economic Recovery without QE Bubble Collapse Beginning of Economic Recovery with QE
(Time) t0 t1 t2
33 Exhibit 34. Fed and BOJ Losses under Various Yield Scenarios as % of GDP
(as % of GDP) 10
5 FRB (Treasury + MBS)
0
-5
-10 BOJ
-15
-20 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 (% points)
Sources: Nomura Research Institute, based on the data from FRB, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks (as of June 28, 2017)", "Federal Reserve Banks Combined Quarterly Financial Report (as of June 30, 2017)," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "System Open Market Account Holdings (as of June 28, 2017)," US Economic Analysis, "Gross Domestic Product," BOJ, "Bank of Japan Accounts" and "Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan" as of November 10, 2017; and Cabinet Office, Report on National Accounts.
34 Exhibit 35. Trump May Run into Capital Flight Problem if He Pushes Dollar down too far
(Yen) Yen-dollar exchange rate (left scale) 160 $ = 150 Yen
150
140
130 Dollar falling below ¥150 Black Monday triggered both sell-off of US 11 120 Treasuries and purchases of (%) JGBs. 10 30-year US treasury bond 9 yield (right scale) 270 bpt.
150 bpt. 8
7 7 (%) Japanese 10-year 6 government bond yield (left scale) 5
4
3 "Tateho Shock*"
2 Jan. Feb. Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1987 *: Japanese chemical company Tateho loses massively in JGB futures trading, triggering panic in the JGB market. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Board of Govenors of the Rederal Reserve, Japan Bond Trading Company
35 Appendix A-1
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