West of England

Full Business Case South Gloucestershire CPNN Cycle Links Package

Originated Reviewed Authorised Date 1 Version 1.0 LL RG RG 05/03/19 2 Version 2.0 LL RG RG 04/04/19 3

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Executive Summary

The Cribbs/Patchway New Neighbourhood Cycle Links package of investment is a key component of a comprehensive sustainable transport package for the Filton Enterprise Area and Cribbs/Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN). This will connect the existing and new housing and employment developments and support the ambition for CPNN to be an exemplar development for integrated public transport, walking, cycling and innovative use of open public space.

The package of cycle schemes delivered through this project will be focussed on enhancing connectivity to jobs and housing, will improve transport connections and stimulate economic growth. They have been designed to fit with available developer masterplans for CPNN to ensure high quality cycle improvements to and through the development are provided.

The total cost of this package is £3.125m, funding which will be used to support the objectives of the Joint Local Transport plan through the delivery of the following five schemes:

 Hayes Way Cycle Path  Catbrain Hill Surface improvement  Patchway Station to A38 link  A4018 NCN improvements  Church Road contraflow

The programme will enhance the accessibility of employment opportunities and essential services and facilities – thus providing greater choice for residents and tipping the balance towards the use of more sustainable modes of travel. Associated benefits will be realised through improved health and wellbeing of residents and reliability of the transport network, helping to support a more competitive economy.

The above schemes will generate £14.75m of conventional transport economic benefits relating to an uplift in walking and cycling trips and will facilitate the creation of approximately 61 new construction stage jobs and 124 operational stage high value jobs (full time equivalents). This scale of employment impact offers good value for money demonstrated through the cost per gross job created of approximately £25,158. The package will also support creation of approximately £1.54 million of additional construction stage GVA and £36.5 million of operational stage GVA for the economy. The interventions will also enable approximately 114 gross new dwellings and will support the generation of a land value uplift of more than £1.4 million. This further enhances the value for money proposition for the funding sought.

South Gloucestershire Council will use its extensive experience from previous Sustainable Transport programmes such as the Cycle Ambition Fund and LGF Sustainable Transport Package to ensure that the programme is completed on time and to budget, while offering excellent value for money.

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1 Strategic Case

1.1 State Aid Considerations

1.1.1 The Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood Cycle Links Project comprises a series of schemes that will enhance the existing walking and cycling network and provide equal benefits to all sectors of the community using the network.

1.1.2 Procurement of the schemes will be through the established procurement frameworks used by South Gloucestershire Council in compliance with public sector procurement regulations. There are considered to be no State Aid issues in relation to this programme.

1.2 Project Description

1.2.1 The CPNN Cycle Links package of investment is a key component of a comprehensive sustainable transport package for the Filton Enterprise Area and Cribbs/Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN). This will connect the existing and new rail stations with the expansive new housing and employment developments and support the ambition for CPNN to be an exemplar development for integrated public transport, walking, cycling and innovative use of public open space.

1.2.2 A £3.125 million package of cycle schemes will be delivered through this project focussing on enhancing connectivity to jobs and housing in order to provide GVA uplift appropriate to the scale and nature of the schemes, and have been designed to fit with available developer masterplans for CPNN to ensure high quality cycle improvements to and through the development are provided.

1.2.3 Schemes within CPNN Cycle Links proposal are strongly supported by the South Gloucestershire Cycle Strategy, adopted in 2016, which identifies the need to focus sustainable transport investment on key strategic corridors that provide links to development locations, and to ensure cycle provision is in place from the outset in order to provide the best opportunity for sustainable travel modes to become the norm for those working and living within the CPNN development site.

1.2.4 The CPNN Cycle Links schemes will deliver infrastructure improvements that will build on behaviour change work to promote sustainable travel currently being delivered with revenue support for the Department for Transport under the Access West project.

1.2.5 The schemes within this package which provide improvements to the east of the CPNN development site build those proposed and delivered by our Local Growth Fund Sustainable Transport package bids, including the A38 feasibility study (STP 2016/17) Access to North Fringe improvements (STP 2017/18) and the A38 Active Travel package within the recently approved South Glos STP 2018-21 bid.

1.2.6 The CPNN Cycle Links programme comprises 5 schemes providing a mix of new and improved cycle routes. A map showing the locations of the schemes can be found in section 1.6, and a breakdown of costs is provided in Appendix A.

1.3 Project Objectives and Case for Change

1.3.1 The Cribbs/Patchway New Neighbourhood Cycle Links package of investment is a key component of a comprehensive sustainable transport package for the Filton Enterprise Area and Cribbs/Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN). This will connect the existing and new housing and employment developments and support the ambition for CPNN to be an exemplar development for integrated public transport, walking, cycling and innovative use of open public space.

1.3.2 The CPNN is set to provide an additional 5,790 new homes as part of the redevelopment of the Filton Airfield site. Five cycle schemes have been identified as investment priorities which are expected to contribute towards the Council Cycle Strategy targets which are related to health, environment and accessibility. The five cycle schemes are also contributing towards meeting the target of 20% active mode share in the area set in the CPNN Supplementary Planning document.

1.3.3 The objective of the £3.125 million package is to expedite the delivery of housing and increased densities alongside enhanced public realm. Improved connectivity in the area will also support access to jobs, providing GVA uplift appropriate to the scale and nature of the schemes.

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1.4 Rationale for Public Intervention

1.4.1 The West of England is failing to meet its economic potential, housing and economic growth is sluggish, in part due to the need for improved transport infrastructure. The North Fringe of Bristol is a major economic hub within the region which is continuing to expand with the Filton Enterprise Area (FEA) being identified in the West of England Spatial Plan (JSP) as a key strategic employment location.

1.4.2 The Cribbs / Patchway New Neighbourhood CPNN is set to provide an additional 5,790 new homes through redevelopment of the Filton Airfield site and this development is dependent on the full implementation of the sustainable transport package. Whilst a network of strategic walking and cycling routes within the CPNN site will be provided by the developers it is also necessary to provide improved connections to the new neighbourhood area from existing residential and employment areas nearby to avoid dependence on solo car use and its associated congestion and public health issues.

1.4.3 These problems cannot be mitigated solely through private sector projects; public sector investment is also needed. Provision of improved walking and cycle routes is an essential part of the required infrastructure to meet our economic growth ambitions.

1.4.4 The Economic Case contained in Section 2, outlines the value of the intervention, which significantly exceeds the cost. The Management Case put forward in Section 5 will ensure the use of public resource is efficient and effective.

1.5 Strategic Fit

1.5.1 The Joint Local Transport Plan 2011-26 (JLTP3) provides the current transport policy framework for the West of England. The CPNN Cycle Links Project is built around goals contained in the plan, as follows:

 Support Economic Growth  Reduce Carbon Emissions  Promote Accessibility  Contribute to better safety, security and health  Improve quality of life and a healthy natural environment

1.5.2 The emerging Joint Local Transport Plan to 2036 (JLTP4), is currently out to consultation, and identifies five transport objectives to deliver its vision of Connecting people and places for a vibrant and inclusive West of England, The CPNN Cycle Links Project will contribute to delivery of these objectives once it supersedes JLTP3 as the adopted transport policy framework.

1.5.3 The Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) prepared by West of England LEP outlines how the region will achieve sustainable economic growth over the plan period. Specifically, the SEP was prepared to support the West of England’s attempts to secure government funding to assist economic development in the region between 2015 and 2021 through the Local Growth Deals initiative. Within this context, the SEP aims to facilitate the creation of more than 25,000 jobs and develop an economy worth around £25bn per year (which also contributes some £10bn to the Treasury annually).

1.5.4 The Strategic Economic Plan places sustainable transport at the heart of the growth strategy in the sub-region. Up to £20m of capital funding has been allocated to the four West of England Local Authorities to deliver sustainable transport improvements to 2020/21. South Gloucestershire Council is seeking £3.125m of funding to realise transport improvements through the CPNN Cycle Links Project and form part of the wider sub-regional investment in sustainable transport infrastructure.

1.5.5 The project will support the business community by improving the sustainable travel offer for commuters, helping to ease congestion in key growth areas. The approach supports the Strategic Economic Plan agenda by improving facilities to support business and enhancing links to the Enterprise Areas and complements improvements being delivered through major transport projects such as Metro West Phase 2 and the Cribbs Patchway MetroBus Extension. It also considers emerging proposals through the Joint Spatial Plan by including schemes that would benefit existing planned development and potential future development in ‘Urban Living’ sites in the North Fringe.

1.6 Options Appraisal

1.6.1 The South Gloucestershire ‘Council Cycle Strategy’ document was released in 2016 with the following objectives: making cycling simpler, safer and more attractive and make better places. Also, the Supplementary Planning Document (SPD) outlines the requirement of achieving a 20% modal share by 2026. Therefore, the Council wants to ensure that the future investment in cycling is focused on achieving these aims and objectives.

1.6.2 The Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN) is a new development which will provide 5,790 dwellings, around 50 hectares of employment land, open spaces, schools and community facilities over the next 10-15 years. It exists a huge potential to promote the use of active mode in the area to reach the SPD objectives of getting more people cycling, more safely and more often. For that reason, the Council initially identified 8 potential cycle schemes which consisted of new cycle routes, upgrades to existing cycle routes and improvements to crossing points and junctions. The schemes were generated through site surveys of existing infrastructure, and desktop analysis of developer masterplans and the South Gloucestershire Cycle Strategy. Apart from the individual schemes, four packages were also generated by grouping the schemes by proximity to contribute towards the CCS goals.

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The four packages were included generated are listed below:

- Package 1: schemes 1, 2 and 3; - Package 2: schemes 5, 6 and 7; - Package 3: schemes 4 and 8; - Package 4 which illustrates the scenario under which South Gloucestershire Council is able to deliver all 8 schemes.

1.6.3 A Multi-criteria Analysis was performed to analyse the fit of the outcomes of the 8 schemes against the SPD target and the ‘Council Cycle Strategy’ goals. The MCA approach implied defining the criteria to be used to appraise each of the schemes and defining a scoring system to provide a quantitative analysis in order to compare the different options and rank them. The final scores are an average of the scores of each criterion, giving the same weight to all 5 criteria. The criteria used to evaluate the schemes were as follows:

1) Criteria 1. The level of improvement made to both walking and cycling facilities for the Cribbs Pathways New Neighbourhood (CPNN) and the Filton Enterprise Area (FEA).

2) Criteria 2. The safety level provided by the improved or segregated walking and cycle lanes, crossings for pedestrian and cyclists or by the installation of crossing signals.

3) Criteria 3. The potential of the scheme to increase the mode share in the area to achieve the SPD targets (20% of the peak time commuter journeys).

4) Criteria 4. The improvement of access to existing employment, housing and essential services. As well as improving access to new housing and new employment opportunities at CPNN/FEA, through active modes.

5) Criteria 5. Value for Money demonstrated through a Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR).

Further detail on the criteria and the scoring system can be found in technical Appendix D attached to this document, giving details on the variables and ranges.

1.6.4 After performing the appraisal, it was found that none of the 8 schemes if delivered individually contributed significantly towards the targets set out in the “Council Cycle Strategy”. Moreover, the only package which is successful delivering the mode share targets as well as providing wider connectivity and accessibility for a good value for money is Package 4. It should be noted that the benefits of delivering a package of schemes is higher than delivering the schemes individually due to economies of scale and clustering. Moreover, the synergies from delivering these 8 schemes at the same time would increase the overall connectivity within the development in a higher degree if compared to individual actions and could lead to cost reduction

1.6.5 The recommendation after the MCA analysis is to proceed with all 8 schemes as Package 4 scores the highest (see Technical Appendix D). Funding of £0.485 million has already been secured for two of the schemes as part of the South Gloucestershire Sustainable Transport Package 2018-21: the upgrade of pedestrian signals near Shellard Rd on the A4174 Station Road and the improvements to the south bound A38 cycle route.

1.6.6 In this Full Business Case, five other cycle schemes have been identified as investment priorities in the way of delivering all the proposed new cycle routes and improvements. These schemes are: the Catbrain Lane, the Hayes Way/Merlin Road, the A4018 link, Patchway Station access and the Church road contraflow. A sixth scheme (A38 Hayes Way/Gipsy Patch Lane improvements) is not included in this package of investment as its design and delivery timescales are not sufficiently developed at this stage. However, it is intended to seek funding to deliver this scheme once there is more certainty over its deliverability.

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1.7 Environmental Sustainability Considerations

1.7.1 The significant environmental impacts of the CPNN Cycle Links Project are as follows:

 Long-term positive impacts: investment in, and promotion of sustainable transport resulting in a reduction in car journeys and associated emissions. This will be monitored using manual and automatic traffic/cycle counts, plus air quality monitoring stations.  Short-term negative impacts: the use of fuels and materials for construction and associated production of waste.

1.7.2 Individual engineering and construction projects will be subject to the appropriate controls, including Environmental Impact Assessments, procurement, planning and waste management. Wherever possible we aim to limit this impact by recycling materials for construction for infrastructure schemes.

1.8 Equality and Diversity Impact Assessment

1.8.1 The CPNN Cycle Links Project is intended to improve accessibility for all members of society through a series of sustainable transport projects and initiatives. The programme will focus on improving access to employment, education and essential services. South Gloucestershire Council will prepare a scheme-level Equality and Diversity Impact Assessment as part of the scheme design process. Appendix B contains an overarching Equality and Diversity Impact Assessment and Plan. This plan is similar to those submitted as part of recent LGF funding applications, but has been reviewed and updated to be relevant to the CPNN Cycle Links proposal.

2 Economic Case

This section presents an overview of the economic impacts appraised for the Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN) package of 8 cycle schemes, and the impacts attributable to a sub-package comprising of only 5 CPNN cycle schemes. The 5 CPNN sub-package is estimated to cost £3.125m and has been put forth for this round of funding. Two of the remaining three schemes have already been funded as part of the South Gloucestershire Sustainable Transport Package 2018-21, and the third scheme will be considered for funding separately once its design has been finalised. As a result, the CPNN package of 8 schemes, which was identified to achieve the modal share required for the CPNN, will be delivered.

2.1 Economic Appraisal

The package of works required to facilitate the development at CPNN/Filton Enterprise Area (FEA) comprises of the 8 cycle schemes as well as other transport and complimentary non-transport infrastructure. The cycle schemes’ focus is on enhancing connectivity to the CPNN/FEA in order to improve access to jobs and housing on the site. CPNN and FEA is a new development which will enable an estimated gross 5,790 dwellings and 6,499 jobs between 2021 and the horizon year of 2036.

The schemes have been developed to ensure that they fit with South Gloucestershire Council’s (SGC) “Council’s Cycle Strategy” (CCS) and achieve the modal share requirements of 20%, outlined in the “CPNN Supplementary Planning Document (SPD) - Transport Report”.

This section gives a brief summary of the economic impacts related to the CPNN Cycle Links scheme, which consists of schemes: Catbrain Lane, Hayes Way/Merlin Road (Sections A, B and C), A4018, Patchway Station Link and Church road contraflow, as shown in the indicative map below. It should be noted, that as the figure depicts, schemes 4 and 6 have already been funded whilst the design for scheme 5 is being finalised and will be delivered separately.

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Attribution of Benefits

The 8 CPNN cycle schemes were estimated to cost £4.02 million, whilst the sub package comprising of the 5 schemes is estimated to cost £3.125 million. A cost proportionality approach has been used to apportion the impacts generated at CPNN/FEA to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes, and subsequently to the 5 cycle schemes for which funding is being sought. The necessary attribution rates are outlined below.

The CPNN Infrastructure Development Plan including the 8 CPNN cycle measures is estimated to cost £158.6 million (2018 prices). Adopting a cost proportionality approach of £4.02m as a proportion of £158.6m generates an attribution factor of 3%. This suggests that 3% of all impacts at CPNN/FEA can be attributed to the 8 cycle schemes.

However, given that this funding application is for 5 of the cycle schemes, a further attribution factor is required to capture impacts relating to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes. To derive this factor, a cost proportionality approach has been used again. The 5 CPNN cycle schemes are estimated to cost £3.125m, as a proportion of the total costs of the 8 schemes of £4.02m, an attribution factor of 78% can be generated. Thus, 78% of impacts enabled by the 8 CPNN cycle schemes are attributable to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes.

Impacts Appraised

The following conventional impacts have been appraised across CPNN/FEA as part of this analysis:  Active Mode using DfT’s active mode toolkit as per Tag Unit A5.1 The following wider benefits have been appraised following the West of England LEP’S guidance, as well as relevant guidance:  Construction Stage jobs and GVA impacts  Operational Stage gross jobs and GVA enabled impacts  Operational Stage gross homes and LVU enabled impacts A detailed methodology including assumptions and the assessment of the impacts is presented in the Economics Forecasting Technical Note in Appendix C:

2.1.1 Active Mode Benefits DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit based on TAG Unit A5.1 has been used to assess the benefits associated with an increase in cycling and walking as a result of the 8 CPNN cycle schemes. Analysis has been undertaken for both a mode shift in the existing commuters as well as the benefits related to new commuters derived by the 5,790 new dwellings.  Combining the benefits across the existing commuters and new dwellings-based commuters generated Present Value of Benefits of £18.98 million (2010 prices and values).  Applying the attribution factor of 78%, derived above, estimates that £14.7 million (2010 prices and values) of active mode benefits can be attributed to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes.

2.1.2 Construction Stage Impacts To estimate the construction stage impacts generated as a result of the delivery of the 5 CPNN cycle schemes, the construction expenditure per job benchmark has been sourced from the West of England’s Guidance Note. Applying the construction expenditure per construction job to the scheme costs reveals that 32.7 direct jobs will be created during the construction phase. Through employment multiplier effects, it is estimated that a further 27.8 indirect jobs will be created.

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The guidance note also includes benchmarks on monetising the subsequent GVA as a result of the direct and indirect construction stage jobs. The analysis reveals that a total of £2.3m (2018 prices, undiscounted) in GVA can be generated, which is composed of £1.25m (2018 prices, undiscounted) of direct GVA and £1.06m (2018 prices, undiscounted) of indirect GVA. Following guidance as set out within WebTag, the values in 2010 prices and values are as follows:

 £0.83m of direct GVA (2010 prices and present values)  £0.71m of indirect GVA (2010 prices and values)  Combining both direct and indirect GVA metrics, an overall GVA uplift of £1.5m (2010 prices and present values) is estimated through the construction stage

2.1.3 Operational Stage Jobs and GVA Enabled Impacts

As part of the CPNN/FEA development proposals, there is an estimated 24 hectares of employment land. The CPNN Supplementary Planning Document (CPNN SPD) Transport Report (2013) outlines the proposed floor space at CPNN/FEA by land use. Following best practice guidance when estimating jobs from floor space, as set out within the HCA Additionality Guide, the analysis estimates that 6,306 gross FTEs jobs will be enabled across CPNN/FEA. It should be noted that the analysis has not estimated the jobs or the GVA associated with the provision other services at CPNN/FEA which would increase the gross jobs number to an estimated 6,499.

Of the 6,306-gross associated with the employment land at CPNN/FEA, 3% of which (160 FTEs gross jobs) are attributable to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes using the attribution factor derived above. Applying the 78% attribution factor generated above, reveals that 124 of those FTEs jobs are attributable to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes. The subsequent GVA related to the 6,306 gross jobs is a gross £1,852m (2010 prices and values). Attributing this using the 3% factor derived above generates a gross GVA uplift of £46.9m (2010 prices and values) attributable to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes. Applying the 78% attribution factor to this generates a gross GVA uplift of £36.5m (2010 prices and values) attributable to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes. As stated previously, all assumptions and the assessment are presented in in the Economics Forecasting Technical Note in Appendix C:

2.1.4 Operational Stage Homes Enabled

There are 5,790 gross dwellings that have been proposed at the CPNN/FEA development site. Using the 3% attribution factor generated above, 147 gross dwellings can be attributed to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes. Following the approach outlined previously, 78% of these outputs can be attributed to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes. This results in 114 gross dwellings.

2.1.5 LVU impacts enabled

The development proposed at CPNN/FEA will give rise to both a land value uplift pertaining to residential as well as commercial development.

[LAND VALUE UPLIFT ANALYSIS REDACTED]

Scheme costs

The 5 CPNN cycle schemes are estimated to cost £3.125m (2018 prices, undiscounted). Following WebTag guidance, an optimism bias value of 3% has been applied to the scheme costs prior to generating the PVC, following TAG Unit A1.2. This is based on the schemes being well developed, and ready for delivery. To generate a BCR, the scheme costs have been discounted and deflated to 2010 prices following guidance as set out within WebTag. This generates a PVC of £2.02m (2010 prices and values).

2.2 Value for Money Statement The economic impacts associated with the package of 5 CPNN cycle schemes can be summarised as follows:

 £14.75m of conventional transport economic benefits relating to an uplift in walking and cycling trips (and the associated impact of such trends on health, decongestion, collisions etc.)  61 construction stage jobs and a construction stage GVA uplift £1.54 (2010 prices and values)  124 gross operational stage high value jobs enabled, and an operational stage gross GVA impact of £36.5m (2010 prices and values)  114 gross new dwellings enabled  Gross Land Value Uplift of £4.1m (2010 values and prices).

The benefits are summarised in the table below. As mentioned earlier, a detailed methodology including assumptions and the assessment of the impacts is presented in the Economics Forecasting Technical Note in Appendix C:

Total project cost £3.125m for the 5 CPNN schemes Grant sought (EDF/LGF/RIF) £3.125m for the 5 CPNN schemes Net Quantified Benefits Active Travel (A38 package) – 5 CPNN Cycle Schemes:

Conventional Transport Economics Impacts relating to Active Mode Travel

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 Additional travel to work journeys using active mode for existing commuters and new residents of CPNN  Present Value of Benefits (PVB) using DfT’s toolkit: £14.75m (2010 prices and values). Presented below: Existing Commuter Benefits by Category Impact Drivers Estimates (present value in 2010 prices) £ 000’s

Congestion benefit 198.8

Infrastructure 1.89

Local Air Quality 0.25

Noise 3.77

Greenhouse Gases 10.16

Reduced risk of premature death 6,924.8

Absenteeism 2,592.1

Journey Ambience 937.5

PVB 10,683.4

New Commuter Benefits by Category Impact Drivers Estimates (present value in 2010 prices) £ 000’s

Congestion benefit 83.69

Infrastructure 0.78

Local Air Quality 0.095

Noise 1.56

Greenhouse Gases 4.08

Reduced risk of premature death 2,681.15

Absenteeism 925.14

Journey Ambience 365.63

PVB 4,068.29

Wider Benefits

Construction Stage Impacts employment of 61 jobs, and a GVA uplift of £1.54m (2010 prices and values) Land Value Uplift enabled: gross £4.1m (2010 prices and values), which comprises of: Residential LVU: gross £3.8m (2010 prices and values) Commercial LVU: gross £0.23m (2010 prices and values) Gross operational stage jobs enabled: 124 FTEs Gross GVA enabled: £36.5m (2010 prices and values) Gross homes enabled: 114

VfM indicator* Conventional Economics BCR of 7 This is based on DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit. Wider benefits based VfM: Gross Cost per gross FTE job enabled: £25,158 Gross Cost per gross home enabled: £27,402

* Benefit compared to total cost

The benefits summarised in the table above highlight that the scheme will deliver very high BCR of 7 (Level 1 BCR) for conventional transport economic appraisal following DfT’s WebTag Tag Unit A5.1 relating to Active Mode impacts.

Furthermore, the jobs and homes enabled considering the £3.125m project investment will also deliver excellent value for money when measured in terms of gross cost per gross job and gross cost per gross dwelling enabled. (Please note whilst Gross Values are quoted in the above table, the Net equivalents are provided within Appendix H)

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3 Financial Case

3.1 Chief Financial Officer sign off

3.1.1 See Appendix E for sign off from South Gloucestershire Council’s Chief Financial Officer.

3.2 Scheme Cost

3.2.1 Below is a summary of the CPNN Cycle Links Project costs. More detailed cost information for the five schemes comprising the project is provided in the Appendix A:

3.2.2 All funding for this project is for capital elements, there is no revenue element. The table below outlines the breakdown of these costs.

Capital Elements

Cost Heading Total projected Amount to be eligible expenditure claimed project management £284,000 £284,000 technical design & preparation £362,000 £362,000 legal and Land £29,000 £29,000 non construction £95,000 £95,000 scheme build and delivery £1,452,000 £1,452,000 post construction £38,000 £38,000 inflation £57,000 £57,000 contingency £808,000 £808,000 Total £3,125,000 £3,125,000

3.3 Spend Profile and Funding Sources Capital Spend (£s)

19/20 20/21 Total Hayes Way Cycle Path £292,984 £872,016 £1,165,000 Catbrain Hill Surface improvement £5,927 £76,073 £82,000 Patchway Station to A38 link £95,603 £912,397 £1,008,000 A4018 NCN improvements £513,089 £72,911 £586,000 Church Road contraflow £239,272 £44,728 £284,000 Total £1,146,876 £1,978,124 £3,125,000

4 Commercial Case

4.1 Procurement

4.1.1 The construction of the scheme will be undertaken by StreetCare, so no separate external procurements will be undertaken or contracting arrangements entered into. StreetCare have an established supply chain for plant, machinery and supplies. There is a framework agreement in place for use of consultants or specialist agency staff where required.

4.1.2 The value for money provided by our in house StreetCare team has been tested in the open market, and is regularly benchmarked both nationally and regionally. We have a streamlined process, where internal transaction costs have been removed, there is no supervisor supervising, and the route to delivery is streamlined through direct involvement of the delivery teams in the design process.

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4.2 Operation and Financial Viability

4.2.1 CPNN Cycle Links is a capital funded programme of work that will result in a series of infrastructure improvements implemented across South Gloucestershire. The programme will not lead to significant future revenue funding burdens upon South Gloucestershire Council. Infrastructure schemes will form part of the authority’s ongoing highway maintenance programme.

4.3 Social Value Act

4.3.1 The Social Value Act does not directly apply to this project because there is no formal procurement activity as StreetCare will be constructing the schemes. However the authority wishes to demonstrate its commitment to the principles of the Act and to achieving the top 10 priorities listed below: 1. Promote the local economy through optimising the use of local suppliers and the voluntary and community sector, and creating and sustaining new local jobs and apprenticeships. 2. Contribute to carbon reduction targets to become carbon neutral and to help mitigate climate change, taking account of resilience to climate change and using resources wisely, including energy, land, water and materials. 3. Conserve and enhance the environment, supporting biodiversity, minimising pollution and waste and making best use of the environmental opportunities of work undertaken by our suppliers. 4. Promote the personal and physical health and the mental and emotional well-being of people within South Gloucestershire e.g.:-  Offering initiatives that support social or physical activities,  Tackling social isolation by providing opportunities to reconnect people with activities in their local communities.  Enabling citizens to make a valuable contribution to society  Supporting family carers to remain in paid employment. 5. Support schools and colleges e.g. through new work placement schemes, providing mentors or assisting in mock interviews. 6. Increase participation in the Children’s 6. Commissioner Takeover Challenge, find details here: https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/takeover-challenge/ 7. Provide training, workplace experience and/or employment opportunities for: -  People with Disabilities  People with Learning Difficulties  Care Leavers  Young People who are not in Education, Employment or Training, or Others who may find access to employment more challenging or who may be under-represented in the workforce e.g. ex-offenders. 8. Support schools through the provision of business support services. 9. Reduce the health and social care inequalities between our Priority Neighbourhoods and the rest of South Gloucestershire. 10. Achieving a service delivery model which uses, engages or supports the local community and voluntary sector including ideas such as adopting a local voluntary organisation as the provider’s ‘charity of the year’.

4.3.2 During the construction of the scheme, it has been agreed that StreetCare will:  Continue to achieve priority 1 through its procurement framework - any commissions or purchases for this project will make a contribution to priority 1, however these could not be easily quantified.  Continue to achieve priority 2 through its day to day operations – meaning that activities under this project will make a contribution to this priority, however these could not be easily quantified.  Continue to achieve priority 3 through its day to day operations - so activities under this project will make a contribution to priority 3, however these could not be easily quantified.

5 Management Case

5.1 Promoter and Delivery Arrangements

5.1.1 South Gloucestershire Council will act as promoter for all of the schemes in the CPNN Cycle Links Project.

5.2 Project Governance and Delivery

5.2.1 The governance arrangements are set out in the diagram below. The Project Manager will be [NAME REDACTED] reporting to the Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) – [NAME REDACTED]. Both these staff have experience working on programmes with similar objectives and outputs, such as the Local Growth Fund Sustainable Transport Package and other major projects.

5.2.2 Building on the successful TravelWest, Access Fund and Sustainable Transport Package arrangements, the Heads of Transport Programme Board will oversee the delivery of CPNN Cycle Links, which will comprise representatives of the four West of England Local Authorities and WECA as illustrated in the figure below. The Board will approve the programme plan and consider highlight and exception reports, changes to the risk log and other key deliverables. The project will be run on day to day basis using the SGC project management system which is based on APM principles. Changes to the project outside of the tolerances of the Programme Board will reported through the

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governance structure and in line with WECA’s change tolerances. SGC’s ECS executive board will act as a project board for this scheme, providing guidance to the project team where required.

5.2.3 In addition to the governance structure provided by the West of England, South Gloucestershire Council’s internal governance arrangements will provide an additional level of monitoring. The Programme will be discussed monthly with Heads of Service within the department at the Capital Programme Board and internal highlight reports further scrutinised at Executive Board level.

SGC Joint Cabinet WECA Committee Scrutiny

Committee

Heads of Transport Programme Board

SGC Executive Board

Project Manager

Work Package Managers

5.3 Programme Plan

5.3.1 All elements of the CPNN Cycle Links Project will be delivered within three years. Specific project milestones for the five individual schemes involved are provided in Appendix A

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5.4 Risks, Constraints and Dependencies

5.4.1 As development work for this package of work has been funded by the WECA Early Investment Fund, a register of early stage risks has been regularly updated and reported through the Highlight Report process, a summary of current risks, constraints and dependencies for the five individual schemes comprising the CPNN Cycle Links Project is provided in Appendix F

5.5 Land Acquisition, Planning and Other Consents

5.5.1 [LAND ACQUISITION TEXT REDACTED]

5.5.2 Planning permission is not required for any of the five schemes. A Traffic Regulation Order will be required for the Church Road contraflow scheme, milestones for which have been included within the programme.

5.6 Service Diversions

5.6.1 This package of infrastructure improvements will be largely delivered within existing highway boundaries, The requirement for service diversions will be finalised once technical design is complete, but NRSWA checks have been undertaken on all schemes, and other than raising or lowering of covers no service diversions are deemed to be required.

5.7 Engagement and Consultation

5.7.1 Through the wide-ranging Travel WEST and LSTF programmes, strong partnerships have been developed across the West of England with businesses, voluntary and public sectors and with transport operators and stakeholder groups. These have been effective in sharing the ownership and outcomes from our investment in improved transport infrastructure and services. The importance of continuing this co- operation into the implementation of the CPNN Cycle Links programme is clear to ensure that the outcome from the investment, in the form of increased levels of sustainable travel, is realised.

5.7.2 All five schemes within this project have been through successful public consultation prior to the submission of this Full Business Case, and amendments to the developed designs have been incorporated where appropriate. A stakeholder engagement plan will be drawn up for specific communication issues around individual projects, where required further communications will be carried out at project, rather than programme level.

5.7.3 Stakeholder management identifies stakeholders and various means of winning and gaining their support. This differentiates stakeholder engagement from general communications that seek to issue a message (inform) or influence groups to change habits around travel modes. For CPNN Cycle Links the following broad categories of stakeholder have been identified:

 Decision Makers – elected Members, funders and officers who are all involved in decision making on the scheme or preparatory work for decision making.  Local Enterprise Partnership – businesses are key beneficiaries of an improved transport system and can play a key role in forming opinions of other stakeholders.  Statutory Bodies – organisations with whom the authorities have an obligation to consult, including utility companies, emergency services and environmental groups.  Sub-regional stakeholders –organisations and groups which have an interest in the economic, social well-being and development of the sub-region and the impacts the SGSTP programme may have.  Special interest groups – identified groups who have particular interest related to the scheme such as transport or the environment and who are not statutory consultees.  Industry groups – organisations which have an interest in transport in the area.  Public and local residents – members of the public in general including residents within the catchment and employers, shops, health and leisure facilities etc.

5.8 Project Assurance

5.8.1 Project assurance for the CPNN Cycle Links programme will be undertaken by South Gloucestershire Council using our internal project management and audit processes, with overall scrutiny being undertaken by the Heads of Transport programme board and WECA through standard programme reporting using highlight reports.

5.9 Monitoring and Evaluation

5.9.1 Monitoring of the packages within the CPNN Cycle Links programme will be undertaken by South Gloucestershire Council in order to monitor the effectiveness of investment. A detailed Monitoring and Evaluation Plan is attached as Appendix G.

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Appendices

Appendix A –Scheme Details

Appendix B – Equality and diversity

Appendix C – Economic Case Technical Note

Appendix D – Multi Criteria Assessment Technical Note

Appendix E – Section 151 sign off

Appendix F – Scheme specific risk register

Appendix G –Monitoring and Evaluation Plan

Appendix H – Gross to Net Calculations for Operational Stage Wider Impacts

Doc v21 Last updated Nov 2017 Appendix A – CPNN Cycle Links Scheme Details

Work Package Manager, Job Title and Experience:

[NAME REDACTED] (Engineer) working under [NAME REDACTED] (Principal Engineer) will lead on delivery of the schemes, working closely with [NAME REDACTED] (SGC Signals Team Manager) where appropriate. They all have significant experience in delivering transport projects related to strategically important locations.

Officers identified above will work closely with the Project Manager [NAME REDACTED], who will report progress to WECA.

Scheme Drawings: The package comprises a total of 5 schemes. Design drawings for the schemes are attached to this Appendix.

Scheme Cost Breakdown and Profile:

Scheme Church Cost header Catbrain Patchway road A4018 Hayes Way Totals Project management Preparation costs technical design legal land acquisition non construction work costs COST BREAKDOWN REDACTED construction supervision/contract management post construction costs inflation contingency Total £82,000 £1,008,000 £284,000 £586,000 £1,165,000 £3,125,000

Land Acquisition: The Catbrain Hill surface improvement, A4018 NCN improvements and Church Road Contra flow schemes are entirely within the Highway boundary and as such have no land acquisition requirements.

[LAND AQUESITION TEXT REDACTED]

Other Agreements: In addition to the land issues mentioned above, the Patchway Station to A38 link scheme includes re-surfacing of the Network Rail owned Stoke Lane Overbridge to provide a suitable surface for cyclists, and as such requires the scheme drawings and Method statement be signed off by Network Rail, and a Basic Asset Protection Agreement (BAPA) be in place before the work is permitted to take place. Network Rail have confirmed by email that the method statement and drawings provided to them are acceptable, and that acceptance of them will be issued once a signed BAPA has been received by the relevant department. SGC have signed and returned the required BAPA, and as such expect to receive confirmation of the acceptance of the method statement and drawings imminently.

Planning Permission: There are no issues associated with planning permission for this package. Service Diversions: The requirement for service diversions will be finalised once technical design is complete, but NRSWA checks have been undertaken on all schemes, and other than raising or lowering of covers no service diversions are deemed to be required.

Project Specific Milestones:

The table below provides an indicative list of project milestones for the schemes contained in the project. It is worth noting that all schemes are well developed and have been through public consultation (with positive feedback).

Hayes Way Cycle Path Milestones Completion

Outline scheme design Complete Consultation Complete Finalise access to land agreements May 2019

Full Business Case Approval / Offer letter signed Jun 2019 Start Scheme Build on site(after nov-jan Mall works Feb 2020 embargo) Finish Scheme Build on site Sept 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, accounts Jan 2021 etc.

Catbrain Hill Surface improvement Milestones Completion

Outline scheme design Complete Consultation Complete Full Business Case Approval / Offer letter signed Jun 2019 Commencement of Wessex Water drainage works Mar 2020 Completion of Wessex Water drainage works May 2020

Start Scheme Build on site Jun 2020 Finish Scheme Build on site July 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, accounts Oct 2020 etc.

Patchway Station to A38 link Milestones Completion

Outline scheme design Complete Consultation Complete Finalise land agreements with Rolls Royce and local Complete residents Finalise method statements and BAPA agreement May 2019 with Network Rail Full Business Case Approval / Offer letter signed Jun 2019 Start Scheme Build on site Sept 2019 Finish Scheme Build on site Oct 2019 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, accounts Apr 2020 etc.

A4018 NCN improvements Milestones Completion

Outline scheme design Complete Consultation Complete

Full Business Case Approval / Offer letter signed Jun 2019 Start Scheme Build on site(after nov-jan Mall works Feb 2020 embargo) Finish Scheme Build on site May 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, accounts Sept 2020 etc.

Church Road contraflow Milestones Completion

Outline scheme design Complete Consultation Complete Full Business Case Approval / Offer letter signed Jun 2019 TRO application Jul 2019 TRO process complete Oct 2019

Start Scheme Build on site Feb 2020 Finish Scheme Build on site Mar 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, accounts Aug 2020 etc.

Scheme Programmes:

2019 2020 2021 Hayes Way/Merlin Road April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary February March April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary Securing access to land Book roadspace complete technical design/utility protection design Order Mobilise Mall highway works embargo implement Audit Address audit issues Finalise account,as builts,handover

2019 2020 2021 Catbrain Hill April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary February March April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary Wessex Water drainage works Book roadspace technical design/utility protection design Order Mobilise implement Audit Address audit issues Finalise account,as builts,handover

2019 2020 2021 A4018 Improvements to NCN 4 April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary February March April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary Book roadspace complete technical design/utility protection design Works Order Mobilise Mall highway works embargo implement Audit Address audit issues Finalise account,as builts,handover

2019 2020 2021 Church Rd Filton extend contraflow cycle lane April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary February March April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary Book roadspace complete technical design/utility protection design Docs to legal and prep advert Advert Report objections Order Mobilise implement Audit Address audit issues Finalise account,as builts,handover

2019 2020 2021 Patchway Station Link to A38 April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary February March April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecemberJanuary complete technical design/utility protection design secure NR agreement Order Mobilise implement Audit Address audit issues Finalise account,as builts,handover Appendix B - Equality and Diversity Impact Assessment and Plan

Introduction

The over-arching message communicated via the West of England Vision 2030 is that of an “Economic Region Built on Success and Delivering Success”.

Underpinning the Vision are five Strategic Objectives:- 1. Create the right conditions for business to thrive. Give confidence and certainty to our investors to attract and retain investment to stimulate and incentivise growth. 2. Enhance & protect our natural & built environmental assets to build our resilience to climate change. 3. Create places where people want to live and work, through delivery of essential infrastructure including transport and housing to unlock suitable locations for economic growth. 4. Shape the local workforce to provide people with skills that businesses need to succeed and that will provide them with job opportunities. 5. Ensure all our communities share in the prosperity, health and well-being and reduce the inequality gap.

The CPNN Cycle Links Project has a role to play in the delivery of each of these strategic objectives, and in particular, objective 3 aligns with the core aims of the project.

We recognise that delivering excellence in Equality & Diversity is intrinsically linked to the successful achievement of the WoE 2030 Vision and as such we have set out a carefully considered action plan, the delivery of which will ensure our work has maximum impact on the achievement of the strategic objectives and ultimately the realisation of the 2030 Vision.

West of England Vision 2030

Strategic Objectives

Business People & Support Skills

Places & Infrastructure

Cross-Sectoral Interventions

Priority Sectors

Enterprise Zone and Areas

Equality & Diversity and the CPNN Cycle Links Project

The central principle of the project concerns increasing the accessibility of sustainable travel options which is critical to supporting growth in our Enterprise Areas where we expect to see up to 70,000 new jobs. Existing road conditions are a barrier to many people choosing to walk and cycle and there is a need to make improvements to facilitate safe independent mobility for all and not just for those able to cope with high levels of traffic. In addition, by providing improved facilities for walking and cycling, the scheme will enhance the health of the local population by promoting active modes of travel. The benefits will be realised by employers, who will have a healthier, fitter workforce with a reduction in absence through sickness, and by the Health Authorities, through reduced demand on healthcare services arising from a healthier population.

In respect of equality and diversity, the central principles relating to the CPNN Cycle Links Project are:

 Ensuring accessible sustainable travel modes are in place;  Encouraging more cycling and walking by those who are already more likely to use these methods (e.g. Males);  Encouraging those who are less likely to use these methods to travel (e.g. Females).

Taking approaches which are tailored to the needs of diverse groups in society is critical in ensuring that the number of people using sustainable modes of travel is maximised. This also contributes to the identified strategic objectives and drivers of growth as stated above and within the below table.

There is a valuable evidence base from which the project has drawn key equality & diversity related information as shown below:

Gender Improved cycling infrastructure through bicycle paths and lanes that provide a high degree of separation from motor traffic is likely to be important for increasing levels of cycling amongst under-represented population groups such as womeni. Children & Young Independent mobility appears to be an important independent determinant of weekday People physical activity for both boys and girls. Physical activity and factors such as independent mobility are likely to be influenced by the type of neighbourhood (housing density, land use mix, available green space) as well as perceptions of neighbourhood. Parents may be much more likely to allow independent mobility if they perceive their environment to be safe and traffic density to be lowii. With age-focused interventions, built green spaces, better traffic regulation and safe bike line and lit streets also having an impact on more independent mobility among childreniii.

There is a significant positive relationship between physical activity, improved cognitive performance and academic achievementiv.

Research has found a possible link between traffic-related air pollution outside people’s homes and the onset of asthma in children during the first eight years of life. Higher levels of nitrogen dioxide, PM2.5 and soot (generated by greater traffic volumes) were more likely to be recorded at the homes of those children who developed asthma and asthma symptomsv.

Cycle training is valuable in terms of cycling safety skills. However, other strategies are needed when promoting cycling to school such as that any training should focus more on real cycling experiences, so that children are able to deal with traffic on school journeys, and on providing educational support to ensure safe journeys to schoolvi.

Research has shown that far more English children were accompanied by an adult on the journey home from school in 2010 than in 1971. In 1971, 86 per cent of the parents of primary school children surveyed said that their children were allowed to travel home from school alone. By 1990, this had dropped markedly to 35 per cent, and there was a further drop to 25 per cent being allowed to do so in 2010. In 2010, in England there was a marked increase in adult accompaniment on non-school journeys, with 62 per cent of the journeys in 2010 being accompanied, compared to 41 per cent in 1971vii. Older Age The intensity of physical effort during cycling on an electrically assisted bicycle is sufficiently high to contribute to the physical activity guidelines for moderate-intensity health-

enhancing physical activity for adultsviii. E-bikes have been found to provide new opportunities to people who would not otherwise consider cycling, with e-biking accounting for one third of all cycling kilometres travelled by adults aged 65 and aboveix.

The risk of increasing falls among a largely sedentary older population can be reduced through physical activity. Walking, as the most readily available physical activity, can contribute to the prevention of falls through maintaining or increasing leg muscle and bone strengthx.

Cycling is a form of physical activity with particular benefits for older people. It is non- weight bearing and therefore has less impact on the joints than jogging or other running sports, and several studies of disease causation have shown significant risk reduction for all- cause and cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease, colon and breast cancer, and obesity morbidity in middle-aged and elderly cyclists. Cycling may also contribute to improved quality of life for older people, by enhancing social networks and building empowerment, and can be incorporated easily into a daily routine. Successful methods used to promote cycling to older people include: age-targeted cycling skills courses, encouragement for Bicycle User Groups to reach out to older people, widespread availability of cycling maps, advertising the multiple benefits of cycling and continued improvement to cycle paths. Fear of cars and other motorised traffic is a strong barrier to cycling across all age groups so investment in infrastructure should also have benefits across the populationxi. Disability (including Psychologists have long recognised the potentially detrimental effect of the commute. mental health) Most studies of the commute and stress find that active travel, followed by public transport use are the least stressful modes and that active travel is often reported as a positive experience in terms of stress managementxii.

The intensity of physical effort during cycling on an electrically assisted bicycle is sufficiently high to contribute to the physical activity guidelines for moderate-intensity health- enhancing physical activity for adultsxiii.

There are more accessible options for cycling today than ever before. These include hand cycles, trikes, wheelchair friendly cycles, side-by-side cycles, one up one down cycles, recumbents, tandems and steer from rear tandems. As such there is large potential for promoting facilities and options which are suitable for a wide range of impairment types. Safety Research has noted that there would be substantial implications of a policy approach which seeks to mitigate barriers to walking and cycling so that (door to door) networks can be travelled on foot or bicycle without disproportionate riskxiv. This is important information in respect of promotion for females, younger and older people.

Evidence also informs us that design principles and good management can address conflicts that can occur within shared spaces (e.g. cyclists and pedestrians). This is important information in respect of promotion for disabled people and both younger and older people.

Parental perception of safety has an impact on whether children are allowed to travel independently to school, with high neighbourhood walkability, high land use mix accessibility and high neighbourhood safety being associated with higher levels of active transport to school in childrenxv. Economic Benefit Economic analysis of cycling interventions suggests that average benefit per additional cyclist is £590 per year, and that small increases in cycling numbers can justify investment in new cycling infrastructure principally due to the health benefits which accruexvi.

There is a high cost to employers from absenteeism and potentially even greater costs from presenteeism (those attending work whilst suffering from illness or injury). Increasing physical activity through active travel opportunities and activities during the work day are highly likely to be cost effective in improving healthxvii.

Within schemes, there is also an identified benefit in relation to tourism. Using the principle that diverse groups have diverse needs and promoting opportunities accordingly has the potential to maximise usage amongst visitors to our areas.

Health The most substantive epidemiological study to date was carried out in Copenhagen involving 13,375 women and 17,265 men aged 20-93 who were randomly selected from a population of 90,000 living in central Copenhagenxviii. Of this cohort, 14,976 cycled regularly to work, for about three hours per week on average. The researchers concluded that: “Even after adjustments for other risk factors, including leisure time activity, those who did not cycle to work experienced a 39% higher mortality rate than those who did.” This is a very important finding. It provides direct evidence from a large scale study that regular cyclists are likely to have a lower risk of death compared to non-cyclists, irrespective of other physical activity they do. Additionally, later analysis has shown higher death rates among those who reduced their level of cycling compared to those who continue to cyclexix.

Walking is the most basic form of physical activity humans can undertake to maintain good health. A key paper setting out the benefits of walking was published in 1997 and remains an important resource for walking promotionxx. This set out that regular walking reduces the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, type 2 diabetes, some cancers, deaths from all causes, and helps to counter depression and maintain mental wellbeing.

Countries with the highest levels of active travel generally have the lowest obesity ratesxxi. Mixed use developments, at high density, with good connectivity for walking and cycling significantly affects body weight and reduce the risk of weight gainxxii.

The order of the difference in fitness in favour of cyclists is equivalent to that enjoyed by being five years younger (cycling in general) or up to 10 years younger (for regular cyclists)xxiii.

A growing body of research reveals that road transport noise can cause sleep disturbance, cardiovascular disease, elevated hormone levels, psychological problems and even premature death; studies on children have identified cognitive impairment, worsened behaviour and diminished quality of life. People with existing mental or physical health problems are the most likely to be sensitive to traffic noise. Fifty-five per cent of those living in urban areas with more than 250 000 inhabitants in the EU - almost 67 million people - endure daily road noise levels above the lower EU benchmark for excess exposurexxiv.

Where infrastructure improvements are seen to make bicycling safe from cars, the level of cycling has been shown to rise from 9% to 39%, with the primary benefits felt by racial- ethnic groups who have a higher rate of chronic disease and those who currently feel least safe cyclingxxv.

As a result of the analysis of the messages emerging from the SEP Equality & Diversity Impact Assessment, and our specific research, we have set our objectives for equality & diversity which will accelerate the successful delivery of the project.

Our Aim, Objectives and Actions

Aim

Our overall aim is to ensure that within all of our work, equality & diversity principles and values are applied, and actions proactively taken which contribute to the maximisation of our success in delivering and promoting sustainable travel options.

Objectives and Actions

Objectives Key Actions Intended Impact

To ensure that our extensive We will conduct a review of the schemes to Features that meet the needs of and research portfolio is utilised ensure that all research is taken account of attract diverse groups are planned to enhance the during scheme design. for from the earliest stages. attractiveness of schemes.

To promote schemes pre and As part of the consultation of schemes we Maximised usage by all, in particular post builds, ensuring that the will tailor our engagement and promotion identified target groups, through needs of diverse groups are activity with: the delivery of messages that targeted (as highlighted via  Businesses motivate and are relevant to the our equality & diversity  Leisure sector needs of diverse groups. related research above).  Communities  Schools to deliver key motivating messages to target groups as identified within our research.

The above objectives will be continuously monitored in order to gauge both progress and the impact of these actions on the achievement of our project objectives.

References

i Jarrard, J., Rose, G., Kai Lo, S. 2008 Promoting transportation cycling for women: The role of bicycle infrastructure, Preventive Medicine: 46(1): 55-59 ii Page, A. et al, 2009 Independent mobility in relation to weekday and weekend physical activity in children aged 10-11 years: The PEACH project, International Journal of Behavioural Nutrition and Physical Activity, 6(2) Open Access iii Garcia-Cervantes, L., et al. 2016 Physical Activity Coparticipation and Independent Mobility as Correlates of Objectively Measured Nonschool Physical Activity in Different School Grades: The UP&DOWN Study, Journal of Physical Activity and Health: 13, 747 -753 iv Sibley, B. Etnier, J. 2003 The relationship between physical activity and cognition in children: A meta- analysis, Pediatric Exercise Science, 15: 243-256. v Gehring, U., Wijga, A.H., Brauer, M. et al. 2010 Traffic-related Air Pollution and the Development of Asthma and Allergies during the First 8 Years of Life. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, 181: 596-603. vi Adrian Davis, 02/05/14, Essential Evidence on a page: No.120 Effects of a cycle training course on children’s cycling skills and cycle use vii PSI, 2013 Children’s independent mobility in England and Germany, 1971-2010. London: PSI. http://www.psi.org.uk/index.php/site/news_article/851 viii Simons, M., Van Es, E., Hendriksen, I. 2009 Electrically assisted Cycling: A new ode for meeting physical activity guidelines?, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 2097-2102. ix Jones, T., Harms, L., Heinen, E., 2016 Motives, perceptions and experiences of electric bicycle owners and implications for health, wellbeing and mobility, Journal of Transport Geography, 53, 41-49 x Chang, T. et al, 2004 Interventions for the prevention of falls in older adults: systematic review and meta- analysis of randomised clinical trials, British Medical Journal, 328. xi Zander, A., et al, 2013 Joy, exercise, enjoyment, getting out: A qualitative study of older people’s experience of cycling in Sydney, Australia, Journal of Environmental and Public Health, http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/547453 xii Gatersleben, B., Uzzle, D. 2007 Affective Appraisals of the Daily Commute. Comparing Perceptions of Drivers, Cyclists, Walkers, and Users of Public Transport, Environment and Behaviour, 39(3): 416 431. xiii Simons, M., Van Es, E., Hendriksen, I. 2009 Electrically assisted Cycling: A new ode for meeting physical activity guidelines?, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 2097-2102. xiv Mullen, C., Tight, M., Whiteing, A., Jopson, A. 2014 Knowing their place on the roads: What would equality mean for walking and cycling? Transportation Research Part A, 61: 238-248. xv De Meester, D., Van Dyck, D., De Bourdeaudhuij, I., Cardon, G., 2014 Parental perceived neighborhood attributes: associations with active transport and physical activity among 10–12 year old children and the mediating role of independent mobility. BMC Public Health: 14, 631. xvi Adrian Davis, 12/06/09, Essential Evidence on a page: No.24 “Economic Benefits of Cycling” xvii Main, C., Glozier, N. Wright, I. 2005 Validity of the HSE stress tool: an investigation within four organisations by the Corporate Health and Performance Group. Occupational Medicine, 55:208–214 xviii Andersen, L, B., Schnohr, P., Schroll, M., Hein, H. 2000 All-cause mortality associated with physical activity during leisure time, work,sports, and cycling to work, Archive of Internal Medicine, 160: 1621-1628. Freely available from http://archinte.amaassn.org/cgi/search?fulltext=cycling+to+work xix Anderson, L.B. 2000 Personal communication, cited in Cavill, N. and Davis, A. 2007 Cycling and health. What’s the evidence? London: Cycling England xx Morris, J., Hardman, A. 1997 Walking to health, Sports Medicine, 23(5): 306-332. xxi Bassett, D., Pucher, J., Buehler, R., Thompson, D., Crouter, S. 2008 Walking, cycling, and obesity rates in Europe, North America and Australia, Journal of Physical Activity and Health, 5: 795-814. xxii Frank, L., Andresen, M., Schmid, T. 2004 Obesity relationships with community design, physical activity, and time spent in cars, American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 27(2): 87-96. xxiii Tuxworth, W., Nevill, A., White, C., Jenkins, C. 1986 Health, fitness, physical activity, and morbidity of middle aged male factory workers, British Journal of Industrial Medicine, 43: 733-753. xxiv Stansfeld, S., Haines M. 1997 Environmental noise and health: a review of non-auditory effects. In: IEH report on the non-auditory effects of noise. Leicester: Institute for Environment and Health. xxv James, F., Sallis, A. et al. 2013 Environmental and demographic correlates of bicycling, Preventive Medicine 57 (5): 456–460.

TECHNICAL NOTE

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ...... 2 2. Active Mode Impacts ...... 4 2.1 Introduction ...... 4 2.2 Active Mode Benefits Analysed ...... 5 2.3 Active Mode Toolkit Assumptions ...... 6 2.4 Existing Commuter Active Mode Related Analysis ...... 11 2.5 New Commuter Active Mode Related Analysis ...... 12 3. Wider Economic Benefits ...... 14 3.1 Introduction ...... 14 3.2 Construction stage impacts ...... 14 3.3 Operational stage impacts ...... 15 3.3.1 Methodology ...... 15 3.3.2 Attribution factor ...... 16 3.3.3 Land Value Uplift: ...... 23 4. Value for Money ...... 24 4.1 Conclusion ...... 24

CH2M 1 1. Introduction

This section presents an overview of the economic impacts appraised for the Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN) package of 8 cycle schemes, and the impacts attributable to a sub-package comprising of only 5 CPNN cycle schemes. The 5 CPNN sub-package is estimated to cost £3.125m and has been put forth for this round of funding. Two of the remaining three schemes have already been funded as part of the South Gloucestershire Sustainable Transport Package 2018-21 and the third scheme will be considered for funding separately once its design has been finalised. As a result, the CPNN package of 8 schemes identified, which was identified to achieve the modal share required for the CPNN, will be delivered.

The package of works required to facilitate the development at CPNN/Filton Enterprise Area (FEA) comprises of the 8 cycle schemes as well as other transport and complimentary non-transport infrastructure. The focus of the cycle schemes is on enhancing connectivity to the CPNN/FEA in order to improve access to jobs and housing on the site. CPNN and FEA is a new development which will enable an estimated gross 5,790 dwellings and 6,499 jobs between 2021 and the horizon year of 2036.

The schemes have been developed to ensure that they fit with South Gloucestershire Council’s (SGC) ‘Council’s Cycle Strategy’ (CCS) and achieve the modal share requirements of 20%, outlined in the CPNN Supplementary Planning Document (SPD) - Transport Report.

This section gives a brief summary of the economic impacts related to the CPNN Cycle Links scheme, which consists of schemes: Catbrain Lane, Hayes Way/Merlin Road (Sections A, B and C), A4018, Patchway Station Link and Church road contraflow, as shown in the indicative map below. It should be noted, that as the figure depicts, schemes 4 and 6 have already been funded whilst the design for scheme 5 is being finalised and will be delivered separately.

Figure 1 – CPNN Cycle Package Schemes

CH2M 2

CH2M 3

2. Active Mode Impacts

2.1 Introduction For the purposes of the assessment of the economic impact related to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes that have been proposed, the study area has been defined by Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs). Doing this allows for data collected to be reflective of the area in which the scheme lies. The following LSOA have been selected for the data analysis around the 8 CPNN cycling schemes: E01014601, E01014602, E01014603, E01014605, E01014693, E01014861, E01014949, E01014952, E01014984, E01014981 E01014905, E01014906 and E01014910. The LSOA selection is captured within Figure 2 below. As stated previously, the impacts presented are attributable to the wider 8 CPNN cycle schemes, however a cost proportionality approach will be undertaken to derive the impacts attributable to the sub-package of 5 cycle schemes relating to this round of funding application. The 5 CPNN cycle schemes are estimated to cost £3.125m as a proportion of the total cost of the 8 schemes of £4.02m, generating an attribution factor of 78%. Thus, 78% of impacts enabled by the 8 CPNN cycle schemes are attributable to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes.

Figure 2 - Map Illustrating the Context Area

CH2M 4 2.2 Active Mode Benefits Analysed

The assessment undertaken in this analysis is conducted through the DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit, which is based on DfT’s Tag Unit A5.1 Active Mode Appraisal guidance. The impacts monetised through DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit are presented in this report.

DfT’s Tag Unit A5.1 Active Mode Appraisal provides guidance on how to estimate and report the impacts related to walking and cycling. DfT’s toolkit which is based on Tag Unit A5.1 applies the appraisal techniques and best practice assumptions outlined within Tag Unit A5.1. The toolkit thus allows the monetisation of the impacts related to active mode travel. DfT’s active mode toolkit monetises the following impacts in line with guidance from Tag Unit A5.1: 1. Journey Quality Impacts

Journey quality is an important consideration in scheme appraisal for cyclists and walkers. It includes fear of potential accidents and therefore the majority of concerns are about safety (e.g. segregated cycle tracks greatly improve journey quality over cycling on a road with traffic). Journey quality also includes infrastructure and environmental conditions on a route. TAG Unit A4.1 contains relevant guidance for the calculation of journey quality benefits.

DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit captures impacts related to journey quality in the benefit category journey ambience. 2. Physical Activity Impacts

Physical activity impacts typically form a significant proportion of benefits for active mode schemes. In order to derive the impact, the toolkit requires an estimate of the number of new walkers or cyclists as a result of the scheme; the time per day they will spend active; and mortality rates applicable to the group affected by the scheme. TAG Unit A4.1 provides details on the estimation of these benefits.

DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit captures changes in the physical activity benefits through both the category of absenteeism as well as reduced risk of premature death. 3. Collision Impacts

Collision benefits (or dis-benefits) are calculated from changes in the usage of different types of infrastructure by different modes and the accident rates associated with those modes on those types of infrastructure. Therefore, collision analysis should take account of changes in collisions involving pedestrians and cyclists, resulting from changes in walking and cycling and the infrastructure used, and the impact of mode switch on accidents involving other road users. Collision benefits can be estimated using the Marginal External Cost method. Details can be found in TAG Unit A5.4. As collision impacts are calculated through changes in walking and cycling numbers, said impacts accrue across all beneficiary groups.

DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit presents the collision benefits (or dis-benefits) under the category accident. 4. Environmental Impacts

The environmental benefits from a walk or cycling scheme are achieved through a reduction in motorised traffic and hence a reduction in the associated externalities. Environmental benefits can be estimated using the Marginal External Cost method. Details can be found in TAG Unit A5.4. As environmental impacts are calculated through changes in motorised traffic, environmental impacts accrue across all beneficiary groups.

CH2M 5 The environmental impacts are presented within DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit through the categories: local air quality, noise and greenhouse gases. 5. Decongestion and Indirect Tax Impacts

Mode switch from car to active modes will benefit those who continue to use the highways (decongestion benefit) and impact on indirect tax revenues. Decongestion and changes in indirect tax revenue can be estimated using the Marginal External Cost method. Details can be found in TAG Unit A5.4. As these impacts are calculated through changes in motorised traffic, the impacts accrue across all beneficiary groups.

DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit presents the changes in decongestion and indirect tax impacts under the categories congestion benefit and indirect taxation respectively.

2.3 Active Mode Toolkit Assumptions Table 1 below is a summary of both of the toolkits used to calculate the baseline impact of the new cycle schemes on the current commuter base. This includes some 317 homes that are envisaged to be developed at CPNN/FEA without the need for mitigation measures. Two toolkits were used to perform the calculation:

A. To consider the baseline commuter increase due to the cycle schemes B. To consider a rise in the additional commuters from an anticipated 317 houses to be built at CPNN/FEA without the need for mitigation measures.

The ‘estimated number of cycle journeys’ and the ‘estimated number of walk journeys’ shown in Table 1 are totalled from both toolkit A and B, the other variables are consistent across both toolkits.

Table 1: Active mode appraisal: Commuters

Modelling Criteria Value Commentary

Scheme Opening Year 2020 As required by funding competition Details

Last year of Initial Funding 2040 As required by funding competition

Decay Rate 0.00% Assumption from illustrative case study in WebTAG

Do Nothing Estimated number of cycle 1,010 This is based on an analysis of the total Scenario journeys commuters in the surrounding LSOAs (15537), and those from a predicted increase of 317 houses in the local area, and mode split information collected from the census data: method of travel to work by local authority (approx. 3.2% cycle to work). Each commuter is assumed to create two journeys.

Average cycle journey length 4.40 This is based on locally collected data (km) regarding distances travelled on bike to work. This is a blended average generation from Method of travel to

CH2M 6 work (distance travelled to work) for South Gloucestershire and Bristol.

Average Cycle Speed (km/h) 15 The National Travel Survey Data 2016 suggests that commuter cycling speeds are approximately 15km/h.

Average proportion of cycle 17% Average length of 5 schemes divided by trips which use the scheme average cycling trip shown above. infrastructure

Estimated number of walk 2,380 This is based on an analysis of the total journeys commuters in the surrounding LSOAs (15537), and those from a predicted increase of 317 houses in the local area, and mode split information collected from the census data: method of travel to work by local authority (approx. 7.6% walk to work). Each commuter is assumed to create two journeys.

Average walk journey length 1.92 This is based on locally collected data (km) regarding distances travelled by foot to work. This is a blended average generation from Method of travel to work (distance travelled to work) South Gloucestershire and Bristol.

Average Walk Speed (km/h) 5 The average adult walk speed of 5 km/h according to the National Travel Survey Data 2016.

Average proportion of walk 39% Average length of 5 schemes divided by trips which use the scheme average walking trip length shown infrastructure above.

Estimate for the number of 100% All work journeys are assumed to involve return journeys a return.

Do Something Estimated number of cycle 2,526 It is assumed that through the provision Scenario journeys of the scheme the number of cyclists will increase by 150%

Estimated number of 2,618 This is derived from assuming that pedestrian journeys through the provision of the scheme the number of walkers to work will be uplifted by 10%

Journey Improvements for cyclists Yes Off-road segregated cycle track Quality Scheme information provided by South Impacts Gloucestershire Council

CH2M 7 Improvements in walking Yes Street lighting, Kerb level, pavements infrastructure evenness all exist, and directional signage will be added. Scheme information provided by South Gloucestershire Council

Decongestion Proportion of cyclists 11% Literature Review carried out by RAND benefit attracted from car Europe/Systra for DfT

Proportion of cyclists 8% As above attracted from taxi

Proportion of pedestrians 11% Assumed to be the same as cycling attracted from car diversion factors

Proportion of pedestrians 8% Assumed to be the same as cycling attracted from taxi diversion factors

Area Type Other Most suitable category for the scheme as Urban a whole

Additional Background Growth 0.00% No information to illustrate that Information background growth will occur

Appraisal Period (years) 20 Assumption from illustrative case study in WebTAG

Number of days in analysis 220 Number of working days in a year period

Optimism Bias 3% Web Tag, Unit A1.2, Table 8.

Table 2 below is a summary of the eight toolkits used to calculate the impact of the additional dwellings being constructed within the CPNN/FEA developments leading to a large increase in commuters in the study area. Eight toolkits were populated based on the quantum of housing development that was envisaged to be delivered between 20201-2036.

The ‘estimated number of cycle journeys’ and the ‘estimated number of walk journeys’ shown in Table 2 are totalled from the eight toolkits, the other variables, except the opening year, are consistent across both toolkits.

Table 2: Active mode appraisal: Commuters for CPNN Housing Construction

Modelling Criteria Value Commentary

Scheme Opening Year 2020 As required by funding competition Details

Last year of Initial Funding 2040 As required by funding competition

Decay Rate 0.00% Assumption from illustrative case study in WebTAG

CH2M 8 Do Nothing Estimated number of cycle 478 This is based on an analysis of the no. of Scenario journeys new commuters expected from the new housing (7351), and mode split information collected from the census data: method of travel to work by local authority (approx. 3.2% cycle to work). Each commuter is assumed to create two journeys.

Average cycle journey length 4.40 This is based on locally collected data (km) regarding distances travelled on bike to work. This is a blended average generation from Method of travel to work (distance travelled to work) for South Gloucestershire and Bristol.

Average Cycle Speed (km/h) 15 The National Travel Survey Data 2016 suggests that commuter cycling speeds are approximately 15km/h.

Average proportion of cycle 17% Average length of 5 schemes divided by trips which use the scheme average cycling trip length shown above infrastructure

Estimated number of walk 1146 This is based on an analysis of the no. of journeys new commuters expected from the new housing (1752), and mode split information collected from the census data: method of travel to work by local authority (approx. 7.6% walk to work). Each commuter is assumed to create two journeys.

Average walk journey length 1.92 This is based on locally collected data (km) regarding distances travelled by foot to work. This is a blended average generation from Method of travel to work (distance travelled to work) South Gloucestershire and Bristol.

Average Walk Speed (km/h) 5 The average adult walk speed of 5 km/h according to the National Travel Survey Data 2016.

Average proportion of walk 39% Average length of 5 schemes divided by trips which use the scheme average walking trip length shown above infrastructure

Estimate for the number of 100% All work journeys are assumed to involve return journeys a return

Do Something Estimated number of cycle 1194 It is assumed that through the provision Scenario journeys of the scheme the number of cyclists will increase by 150%

CH2M 9 Estimated number of 1260 This is derived from assuming that pedestrian journeys through the provision of the scheme the number of walkers to work will be uplifted by 10%

Journey Improvements for cyclists Yes Off-road segregated cycle track Quality Scheme information provided by South Impacts Gloucestershire Council

Improvements in walking Yes Street lighting, kerb level, pavements infrastructure evenness all exist, and directional signage will be added. Scheme information provided by South Gloucestershire Council

Decongestion Proportion of cyclists 11% Literature Review carried out by RAND benefit attracted from car Europe/Systra for DfT

Proportion of cyclists 8% As above attracted from taxi

Proportion of pedestrians 11% Assumed to be the same as cycling attracted from car diversion factors

Proportion of pedestrians 8% Assumed to be the same as cycling attracted from taxi diversion factors

Area Type Other Most suitable category for the scheme as Urban a whole

Additional Background Growth 0.00% No information to illustrate that Information background growth will occur

Appraisal Period (years) 20 Last year of initial funding – Opening year of funding.

Number of days in analysis 220 Number of working days in a year period

Optimism Bias 3% Web Tag, Unit A1.2, Table 8.

CH2M 10

2.4 Existing Commuter Active Mode Related Analysis

Method of travel to work data (Census 2011) for the LSOA’s identified as being the context area demonstrates that an estimated 3.2% of individuals commute to work using a bicycle and 7.8% of individuals commute on foot. The data estimates the average distance cycled is 4.40km, whilst the average distance walked is 1.92km.

Method of travel to work data (Census 2011) for the context area illustrates that there are 15,537 commuters within the area. Application of the active travel by mode percentages, derived above, to the commuters in the context area estimates the pre-intervention number of cyclists and walkers to be 492 and 1,159 respectively. The number of cyclists post-intervention increases from 492 to 1,230 and pedestrians from 1,159 to 1,275.

To populate DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit, the number of journeys per day for both pre- and post- intervention is required. To generate the number of journeys per day, it is assumed that 100% of cyclists and pedestrians commuting to work in the context area will undertake a return trip. Thus, pre- intervention the 492 cyclists and 1,159 walkers relate to 984 cycling trips per day and 2,318 walking trips per day. Post intervention the 1,230 cyclists and 1,275 walkers are envisaged to correspond to 2,460 cycling trips per day and 2,550 walking trips per day.

It has also been considered that over the appraisal period a further 317 homes are expected to be built in the area surrounding the CPNN, meaning an additional 402 commuters in the area. The same assumptions in uplift in numbers of cyclist and walkers and commuter percentage are expected for people moving into these houses. Therefore, pre-intervention 13 cyclists and 31 walkers relate to 26 cycling trips per day and 62 walking trips per day. Post-intervention 33 cyclists and 34 walkers will correspond to 66 cycling trips and 68 walking trips per day.

The analysis suggests that from a commuter cyclist/walker perspective the scheme could deliver a present value of benefits (PVB) of £10.68 million over an appraisal period of twenty years. The benefits generated are as a result of commuters within the context area switching to an active mode of travel to work. The impacts are summarised in Table 3 below:

Table 3 - Existing Commuter Benefits by Category Attributable to Both 8 and 5 Cycle Schemes Impact Drivers Estimates, present Estimates, present value in 2010 prices value in 2010 prices (8 schemes) £ 000’s (5 schemes) £ 000’s

Congestion benefit 255.78 198.83

Infrastructure 2.43 1.89

Accident 72.77 56.57

Local Air Quality 0.33 0.25

Noise 4.85 3.77

Greenhouse Gases 13.07 10.16

Reduced risk of premature death 8,908.10 6,924.83

CH2M 11 Absenteeism 3334.43 2,592.07

Journey Ambience 1206.00 937.49

Indirect Taxation -51.48 -40.02

PVB 13,743.85 10,683.95

The toolkit shows that the wider 8 CPNN schemes could deliver a PVB of £13.74 million (2010 prices and values) to the existing commuters driven by a mode shift. Applying the cost proportionality approach as set out previously (78% attribution of impacts to the 5 schemes), the analysis demonstrates that the 5 CPNN schemes could deliver a PVB of £10.68 million (2010 prices and values) to the existing commuters driven by a mode shift. The main driver of the benefits is a reduction in the risk of premature death, as more commuters are now undertaking physical activity. The increase in the physical activity also reduces absenteeism. Moreover, due to the various infrastructure improvements proposed another key driver of the benefits is related to the journey quality.

2.5 New Commuter Active Mode Related Analysis

The proposals at CPNN/FEA include the delivery of residential units. To estimate the number of commuters that the proposed dwellings will support at CPNN/FEA, the number of commuters from the Method of Travel to Work data (Census, 2011) is applied to the total number of households within South Gloucestershire. This generates a ratio of dwellings to commuters that is applied to the proposed 5,790 dwellings, this demonstrates that an estimated 7,351 new commuters will be drawn to the CPNN/FEA dwellings.

To analyse the benefits of the 5 Cycle schemes to the development driven population, DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit has been populated. CPNN/FEA has the potential to generate a significant number of walking and cycling trips. The Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood Supplementary Planning Document Transport Report1 demand model estimates that the development that walking and cycling combined will achieve a mode split of approximately 20% at CPNN. It is thus essential that walking and cycling infrastructure be provided along the A38 corridor to maximise the uptake of sustainable modes of travel.

Given the demand model estimates that active mode will account for 20% of the trips at CPNN/FEA, a conservative approach to the analysis has been assumed that of the 7,351 new commuters 8.1% will commuter using a bicycle whilst 8.6% of individuals will walk. Method of travel to work data (Census 2011) for the LSOA’s identified as being the context area demonstrates the data estimates the average distance cycled is 4.40 km, whilst the average distance walked is 1.92 km.

For this analysis a conservative approach has been taken. It is estimated that from the additional development, the number of individuals cycling to work will increase by 150% whilst the number of individuals walking to work will increase by 10%. All the other assumptions used to populate DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit along with their sources are detailed in Appendix A. Post intervention, the number of cyclists is expected to increase from 239 to 597. Whilst the number of number pedestrians post intervention increases from 573 to 630.

To populate DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit, the number of journeys per day for both pre- and post- intervention is required. To generate the number of journeys per day, it is assumed that 100% of cyclists

1 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/documents/all%20appendices.pdf#page=62&zoom=100,0,84 CH2M 12 and pedestrians commuting to work in the context area will undertake a return trip. Thus, pre- intervention the 239 cyclists and 573 walkers relate to 478 cycling trips per day and 1,146 walking trips per day. Post intervention the 597 cyclists and 630 walkers are envisaged to correspond to 1,194 cycling trips per day and 1,260 walking trips per day.

The analysis suggests that from a commuter cyclist/walker perspective the scheme could deliver a present value of benefits (PVB) of £4.07m over an appraisal period of 20 years. The benefits generated are as a result of commuters within the context area switching to an active mode of travel to work. The impacts are summarised in Table 4 below.

Impact Drivers Estimates, present Estimates, present value in 2010 prices value in 2010 prices (8 schemes) £ 000’s (5 schemes) £ 000’s

Congestion benefit 106.38 83.69

Infrastructure 1.00 0.78

Accident 30.04 23.35

Local Air Quality 0.12 0.095

Noise 2.00 1.56

Greenhouse Gases 5.25 4.08

Reduced risk of premature death 3,449.03 2,681.15

Absenteeism 1,190.10 925.14

Journey Ambience 470.35 365.63

Indirect Taxation -19.82 -15.40

PVB 5,233.45 4,068.29

Table 4 - New Commuter Benefits by Category The toolkit shows that the wider 8 CPNN schemes could deliver a PVB of £5.23 million (2010 prices and values) to the existing commuters driven by a mode shift. Applying the cost proportionality approach as set out previously (78% attribution of impacts to the 5 schemes), the analysis demonstrates that the 5 CPNN schemes could deliver a PVB of £4.07 million to the new commuters through a mode shift. The main driver of the benefits is a reduction in the risk of premature death, as more commuters are now undertaking physical activity. The increase in the physical activity also reduces absenteeism. Moreover, due to the various infrastructure improvements proposed another key driver of the benefits is related to the journey quality. Combining the Present Value of Benefits (PVB) across both existing and new commuters as a result of the 5 CPNN cycle schemes, a PVB of £14.75 million is estimated (2010 prices and values).

CH2M 13

3. Wider Economic Benefits

3.1 Introduction This section presents the best practice modelling approach that has been adopted to assess the economic impacts generated by the 5 Cribbs Patch New Neighbourhood (CPNN) cycling schemes, as shown in Figure 3 below. Impacts include GVA uplift and jobs created in both the construction and the operation phase, as well as the Land Value Uplift that can be attributed to the package of schemes. The impacts of said project concern the following authorities: City of Bristol, North Somerset, Bath & North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire.

Figure 3 - CPNN Cycle Package Schemes

3.2 Construction stage impacts

3.2.1.1 Jobs

Delivery of the 5 CPNN cycle schemes will result in both direct and indirect construction stage employment impacts and subsequent GVA impacts.

Job creation resulting directly from the construction phase can be estimated by applying a best practice benchmark of £95,441 (sourced from the WoE’s Impact Guidance Note for Infrastructure Projects, 2018

CH2M 14 prices) per full-time equivalent (FTE) job to the construction expenditure of £3,125,000. Based on this, the project is expected to create 32.7 FTE jobs during the construction phase.

Additionally, indirect job creation will occur through a multiplier effect that impacts on the wider economy in two ways:  Through increase in expenditure by construction firms within their supply chain; and.  Through increased expenditure in the local area by construction workers, leading to a higher demand for goods and services.

This would eventually lead to a multiplier effect in the local economy as local and supply chain businesses expand to cope with the increased demand. To quantify indirect job creation a best practice high end multiplier of 0.85 (sourced from the WoE’s Impact Guidance Note for Infrastructure Projects) is applied, based on the assumption that most of the expenditure by construction workers will be contained within the region. The application of this high-end multiplier to the number of direct FTE jobs created (32.7) suggests that an additional 27.8 FTE jobs will be created in the sub-regional economy.

3.2.1.2 Gross Value Added:

Direct GVA can be estimated through the application of best practice turnover to GVA benchmarks obtained from WoE’s Impact Guidance Note for Infrastructure Projects. Following a turnover-led approach, a turnover to GVA ratio of 0.4 is applied to construction costs of £3.125m generating a direct GVA uplift of £1.25m.

The indirect employment effects will also result in an indirect GVA uplift. To assess the extent of the indirect GVA uplift a best practice output multiplier of 0.85 (sourced from the WoE’s Impact Guidance Note for Infrastructure Projects) is applied to the direct GVA impact of £1.25m resulting in an indirect GVA uplift of £1,065,500. This multiplier assumes that most of the spending undertaken by construction firms is retained within the region’s construction supply chain. Table 5 below summarises the construction stage impact on jobs and the GVA impact in both 2018 and in 2010 prices (present value) as per WebTag guidance.

Impact Driver Direct Indirect Total

Jobs (FTE) 32.7 27.8 60.6

GVA (2018 prices, present £1,250,000 £1,062,500 £2,312,500 value) millions

GVA (2010 prices, present £830,928 £706,289 £1,537,217 value) millions

Table 5 - Construction Stage Impacts

3.3 Operational stage impacts

3.3.1 Methodology

South Gloucestershire’s Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood Supplementary Planning Document (CPNN SPD) Transport Report (2013) forecasts the Office and Industrial commercial development (Gross Floor Area) potential of both CPNN and FEA combined by land use if the scheme was to go ahead, as is summarised in Table 6.

CH2M 15 Source: CPNN SPD Transport report (2013) and Airfield Masterplan Number of units of Land Use Floorspace in Sq. m.

Office floorspace 65,000 Sq. m.

2 Industrial floorspace 86,000 Sq. m.

3 Shopping Mall (retail) 9,500 Sq. m.

Table 6 - Combined Development Estimates for CPNN and FEA

As the SPD states the industrial floorspace has both elements of “general” and “light industrial” uses, it has been assumed that the above industrial figure of 86,000 Sq. m. is apportioned equally across the two.

The Airfield Masterplan, as provided by South Gloucestershire Council, highlights additional mixed-use development, which has an average of 6 different uses totalling up to 5.7 hectares. For simplicity, 0.95 hectares (9,500 Sq. m.) has been assumed to be retail and is included in the above figure. Overall, the total floorspace reaches 160,500 Sq. m.

3.3.2 Attribution factor A cost proportionality approach has been used to apportion the impacts generated at CPNN/FEA to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes, and subsequently to the 5 cycle schemes for which funding is being sought. The necessary attribution rates are outlined below. The CPNN Infrastructure Development Plan including the 8 CPNN cycle measures is estimated to cost £158.6 million (2018 prices). Adopting a cost proportionality approach of £4.02m (8 cycle scheme cost) as a proportion of £158.6m generates an attribution factor of 3%. This suggests that 3% of all impacts at CPNN/FEA can be attributed to the 8 cycle schemes. However, given that this funding application is for 5 of the cycle schemes, a further attribution factor is required to captures impacts relating to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes. To derive this factor, a cost proportionality approach has been used again. The 5 CPNN cycle schemes are estimated to cost £3.125m as a proportion of the total costs of the 8 schemes of £4.02m generates an attribution factor of 78%. Thus, 78% of impacts enabled by the 8 CPNN cycle schemes are attributable to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes. Or 1.98% of all impacts at CPNN/FEA can be attributed to the 5 cycle schemes.

3.3.2.1 Jobs Enabled The assumed profiling build out in the initial GBATS transport model for Office and Industrial development has been reflected in this modelling approach and is as stated: 40% build out in the first scheme year (2021) with the remaining 60% distributed evenly across the next 15 years to 2036. This assumption does not apply to retail however, as the source (Airfield Masterplan) differs for that development. As its size is not as significant as Office and Industrial, it has therefore been assumed that

2 The analysis has split the industrial floorspace evenly between light industry and general industry 3 Assumed retail floorspace in the Airfield Masterplan

CH2M 16 this impact would be all realised in the first scheme year (2021). This profiling and total floorspace enabled can be seen below.

Gross Floor Area (GFA) Development Profile

Office Light General Retail Year Total floorspace floorspace Sq. industrial Sq. industrial Sq. floorspace Sq. M. M. (GFA) M. (GFA) M. (GFA) Sq. M. (GFA) 2016/17 0 2017/18 0 2018/19 0 2019/20 0 2020/21 0 2021/22 26,000 17,200 17,200 9,500 69,900 2022/23 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2023/24 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2024/25 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2025/26 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2026/27 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2027/28 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2028/29 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2029/30 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2030/31 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2031/32 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2032/33 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2033/34 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2034/35 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2035/36 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2036/37 2,600 1,720 1,720 6,040 2037/38 - 2038/39 - 2039/40 - 2040/41 0 Total 65,000 43,000 43,000 9,500 160,500

Table 7 - Gross Floor Area Split by Industry

As the provided figures are in terms of Gross Floor Area (GFA), it is imperative to convert the forecast into Net Internal Area (NIA). This conversion factor has been set out at 80% by the Employment Density Guide (2014) and is a recognised metric for other floorspace estimates in e.g. marketing and valuation. The only exception to this conversion factor is the General Industrial floorspace, which remains presented as GFA in accordance to the same Employment Density Guide (2014).

CH2M 17 Net Internal Area (NIA) Development Profile

Office Light General Retail Total Year floorspace industrial Sq. industrial Sq. floorspace Sq. floorspace Sq. M. (NIA) M. (NIA) M. (GFA) M. (NIA) Sq. M. 2016/17 0 2017/18 0 2018/19 0 2019/20 0 2020/21 0 2021/22 20,800 13,760 17,200 7,600 59,360 2022/23 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2023/24 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2024/25 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2025/26 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2026/27 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2027/28 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2028/29 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2029/30 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2030/31 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2031/32 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2032/33 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2033/34 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2034/35 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2035/36 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2036/37 2,080 1,376 1,720 5,176 2037/38 - 2038/39 - 2039/40 - 2040/41 0 Total 52,000 34,400 43,000 7,600 137,000

Table 8 - Net Internal Area Split by Industry

With the envisaged floorspace development figures in NIA terms, employment densities from Housing and Communities Agency (HCA, 2015) guidance can then be applied. The densities indicate the average floorspace in Sq. m. per employee split by industries.

Employment Densities (Sq. M. per employee) Office 13 HCA 2015 Guide Light Industrial 47 HCA 2015 Guide General Industrial 36 HCA 2015 Guide Retail 20 HCA 2015 Guide

Table 9 - Employment Densities The application of these density benchmarks to the NIA profile allows for an estimation of jobs enabled as a result of the CPNN/FEA programme, totalling to 6,306 jobs.

CH2M 18 Intervention Case Jobs (NIA)

Year Light Industrial General Industrial Office Jobs Retail Jobs Total Jobs Jobs Jobs 2016/17 - 2017/18 - 2018/19 - 2019/20 - 2020/21 - 2021/22 1,600 293 478 380 2,751 2022/23 160 29 48 - 237 2023/24 160 29 48 - 237 2024/25 160 29 48 - 237 2025/26 160 29 48 - 237 2026/27 160 29 48 - 237 2027/28 160 29 48 237 2028/29 160 29 48 237 2029/30 160 29 48 237 2030/31 160 29 48 237 2031/32 160 29 48 237 2032/33 160 29 48 237 2033/34 160 29 48 237 2034/35 160 29 48 237 2035/36 160 29 48 237 2036/37 160 29 48 237 2037/38 - 2038/39 - 2039/40 - 2040/41 - Total 4,000 732 1,194 380 6,306

Table 10 - Jobs Enabled by CPNN/FEA

Not all these benefits are attributable to the CPNN cycle schemes. As stated in Section

2.3.2, only 3% of all impacts stemming from CPNN/FEA is attributable to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes. This amounts to 160 FTEs. Of these, 124 FTEs can be then attributed to the 5 cycle schemes after applying the 78% attribution factor.

Note also that the GBATS model envisages 6,499 jobs to be enabled with the full development. The deficit between the modelled figure above and the transport model can be attributed to other employment generating areas identified within the Airfield Masterplan as ‘Other Services’. This includes a number of developments such as schools and sports halls but has not been included in this model. The full breakdown can be seen within the Masterplan.

3.3.2.2 GVA Enabled GVA per employee values for the respective jobs have been obtained from ABS 2018. The data provided is in a 2016 price base and has been adjusted to a 2018 price base to ensure consistency. GDP inflator figures were sourced from WebTag’s GDP deflator data book (November 2018) to carry out this process.

As these figures are nationwide averages, a secondary adjustment factor has been made to reflect the associated local authorities’ levels. This has been calculated by obtaining a single figure average for “UK” GVA and taking a proxy for GVA in South Gloucestershire. The data sets presents the values by Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistic (NUTS). The proxy has been based on the NUTS level three category which comprises of the following Local Authorities “B&NES, North Somerset, South

CH2M 19 Gloucestershire”. To derive the adjustment factor, the UK GVA has been divided by the South Gloucestershire proxy to formulate an applicable factor to the sector GVA averages. The figures used can be seen below in Table 11.

GVA per Employee Retail £27,475 2016 base ABS 2018 release, Division 47 Office £71,214 2016 base ABS 2018 release, Average of Sections J L M N Light Industrial £65,703 2016 base ABS 2018 release, Section M Industrial £64,074 2016 base ABS 2018 release, Section C UK GVA Average £53,474 2016 base Sub Regional GVA 2018 Feb Release B&NES, North Somerset, South Gloucestershire GVA Average £54,957 2016 base Sub Regional GVA 2018 Feb Release Adjustment factor 1.03 Derived Retail £27,275 2018 base Derived and adjusted to reflect local authorities Office £70,698 2018 base Derived and adjusted to reflect local authorities Light Industrial £65,227 2018 base Derived and adjusted to reflect local authorities Industrial £63,610 2018 base Derived and adjusted to reflect local authorities

Table 11 – Average GVA per Employee by Industry

Applying the adjusted GVA per employee figures to the number of estimated jobs results in the following table:

Intervention Case GVA (NIA, 2018 Prices)

Year Light Industrial General Industrial Office GVA Retail GVA Total GVA GVA GVA 2016/17 0 2017/18 0 2018/19 0 2019/20 0 2020/21 0 2021/22 £112,685,156 £19,023,379 £30,275,227 £10,325,121 £172,308,883 2022/23 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2023/24 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2024/25 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2025/26 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2026/27 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2027/28 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2028/29 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2029/30 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2030/31 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2031/32 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2032/33 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2033/34 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2034/35 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2035/36 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2036/37 £11,268,516 £1,902,338 £3,027,523 £16,198,376 2037/38 0 2038/39 0 2039/40 0 2040/41 0 Total £281,712,890 £47,558,447 £75,688,067 £10,325,121 £415,284,525

Table 12 - GVA Profile Split by Industry

CH2M 20 It is recognised industry wide that persistence should be taken into account regarding job enabling and associated GVA uplift. In this model, a persistence factor of 10 years has been assumed. The persisted totals are shown below in Table 13.

Total (2018 Prices) Year 2021 £172,308,883 2022 £188,507,259 2023 £204,705,635 2024 £220,904,011 2025 £237,102,387 2026 £253,300,763 2027 £269,499,140 2028 £285,697,516 2029 £301,895,892 2030 £318,094,268 2031 £161,983,762 2032 £161,983,762 2033 £161,983,762 2034 £161,983,762 2035 £161,983,762 2036 £161,983,762 2037 £145,785,385 2038 £129,587,009 2039 £113,388,633 2040 £97,190,257 2041 £80,991,881 2042 £64,793,505 2043 £48,595,128 2044 £32,396,752 2045 £16,198,376 2046 £0 Total £4,152,845,250

Table 13 - Total GVA After Applying Persistence Factors As per WebTAG guidance, these totals must be discounted to 2010 and presented in 2010 price base. Discount factors used in this methodology are aligned with The Green Book, i.e. 3.5% yearly discount rate from 2010 until the 30th year of appraisal and 3% yearly discount from thereon until year 75 of the appraisal. This results in the final output showing jobs and GVA enabled impacts over the scheme period below in Table 14.

CH2M 21 Discounting and Deflating (GVA)

Year Discounting Factor 2018 Prices , 2018 Prices, 2010 Prices, Undiscounted Discounted Discounted

2021 0.68494571 £172,308,883 £118,022,231 £103,309,457 2022 0.66178330 £188,507,259 £124,750,955 £109,199,372 2023 0.63940415 £204,705,635 £130,889,633 £114,572,795 2024 0.61778179 £220,904,011 £136,470,475 £119,457,924 2025 0.59689062 £237,102,387 £141,524,191 £123,881,638 2026 0.57670591 £253,300,763 £146,080,048 £127,869,557 2027 0.55720378 £269,499,140 £150,165,939 £131,446,097 2028 0.53836114 £285,697,516 £153,808,440 £134,634,520 2029 0.52015569 £301,895,892 £157,032,866 £137,456,986 2030 0.50256588 £318,094,268 £159,863,327 £139,934,599 2031 0.48557090 £161,983,762 £78,654,601 £68,849,437 2032 0.46915063 £161,983,762 £75,994,784 £66,521,195 2033 0.45328563 £161,983,762 £73,424,912 £64,271,686 2034 0.43795713 £161,983,762 £70,941,944 £62,098,247 2035 0.42314699 £161,983,762 £68,542,941 £59,998,307 2036 0.40883767 £161,983,762 £66,225,064 £57,969,378 2037 0.39501224 £145,785,385 £57,587,012 £50,408,155 2038 0.38165434 £129,587,009 £49,457,445 £43,292,028 2039 0.36874815 £113,388,633 £41,811,849 £36,599,541 2040 0.35627841 £97,190,257 £34,626,790 £30,310,179 2041 0.34423035 £80,991,881 £27,879,863 £24,404,331 2042 0.33258971 £64,793,505 £21,549,653 £18,863,251 2043 0.32134271 £48,595,128 £15,615,690 £13,669,022 2044 0.31047605 £32,396,752 £10,058,416 £8,804,523 2045 0.29997686 £16,198,376 £4,859,138 £4,253,393 2046 0.28983272 £0 £0 £0 Total £4,152,845,250 £2,115,838,208 £1,852,075,616

Table 14 - Discounting and Deflating GVA

It should be re-stated that not all these benefits are attributable to the CPNN cycle schemes. As stated in Section 2.3.2, only 3% of all impacts stemming from CPNN/FEA is attributable to the 8 CPNN cycle schemes. This amounts to a GVA uplift of £46.9 million (2010 prices and values), with £36.5 million attributable to the 5 cycle schemes after applying the 78% attribution factor.

Table 15 below summarises the GVA impact in both 2018 and in 2010 prices as per WebTag guidance for CPNN/FEA as a whole.

Total Operational Stage Impacts – CPNN/FEA

Impact Driver

Jobs (FTE) 6,306

GVA (2018 prices, present £4,152,845,250 value) millions

GVA (2010 prices, present £1,852,075,616 value) millions

Table 15 - Operational Stage Impacts Applying the cost proportionality of 2% set out earlier in the report, £83.1 million of jobs / GVA impacts (2018 prices and values) can be attributed to the 5 CPNN cycle schemes, or £37.0 million (rounded) in 2010 prices and values.

CH2M 22 3.3.3 Land Value Uplift:

[LAND VALUE UPLIFT ANALYSIS REDACTED]

CH2M 23 4. Value for Money

4.1 Conclusion The economic impacts associated with the package of 5 CPNN cycle schemes can be summarised as follows:

 £14.75m of conventional transport economic benefits relating to an uplift in walking and cycling trips (and the associated impact of such trends on health, decongestion, collisions etc.)  61 construction stage jobs and a construction stage GVA uplift £1.5m (2010 prices and values)  124 gross operational stage high value jobs enabled, and an operational stage gross GVA impact of £36.5m (2010 prices and values)  114 gross new dwellings enabled  Gross Land Value Uplift of £4.1m (2010 values and prices).

The benefits are summarised in the table below.

Total project cost £3.125m for the 5 CPNN schemes

Grant sought (EDF/LGF/RIF) £3.125m for the 5 CPNN schemes

Net Quantified Benefits Active Travel (A38 package) – 5 CPNN Cycle Schemes:

Conventional Transport Economics Impacts relating to Active Mode Travel  Additional travel to work journeys using active mode for existing commuters and new residents of CPNN  Present Value of Benefits (PVB) using DfT’s toolkit: £14.75m (2010 prices and values). Presented below:

Existing Commuter Benefits by Category Impact Drivers Estimates, present value in 2010 prices (5 schemes) £ 000’s

Congestion benefit 198.83

Infrastructure 1.89

Accident 56.57

Local Air Quality 0.25

Noise 3.77

Greenhouse Gases 10.16

Reduced risk of premature death 6,924.83

CH2M 24 Absenteeism 2,592.07

Journey Ambience 937.49

Indirect Taxation -40.02

PVB 10,683.95

New Commuter Benefits by Category Impact Drivers Estimates, present value in 2010 prices (5 schemes) £ 000’s

Congestion benefit 83.69

Infrastructure 0.78

Accident 23.35

Local Air Quality 0.095

Noise 1.56

Greenhouse Gases 4.08

Reduced risk of premature death 2,681.15

Absenteeism 925.14

Journey Ambience 365.63

Indirect Taxation -15.40

PVB 4,068.29

Wider Benefits

Construction Stage Impacts employment 60.6, and a GVA uplift of £1.54m (2010 prices and values)

Land Value Uplift enabled: gross £4.1m (2010 prices and values), which comprises of:

Residential LVU: gross £3.8m (2010 prices and values)

Commercial LVU: gross £0.23m (2010 prices and values)

Gross operational stage jobs enabled: 124 FTEs

Gross GVA enabled: £36.5m (2010 prices and values)

CH2M 25 Gross homes enabled: 114

VfM indicator* Conventional Economics

BCR of 7 This is based on DfT’s Active Mode Toolkit.

Wider benefits based VfM:

Gross Cost per gross FTE job enabled: £25,158

Gross Cost per gross home enabled: £27,402

Table 21 - Impact Summary * Benefit compared to total cost

The benefits summarised in the table above highlight that the scheme will deliver very high BCR of 7 (Level 1 BCR) for conventional transport economic appraisal following DfT’s WebTag Tag Unit A5.1 relating to Active Mode impacts.

Furthermore, the jobs and homes enabled considering the £3.125m project investment will also deliver excellent value for money when measured in terms of gross cost per gross job and gross cost per gross dwelling enabled.

CH2M 26 T E C H N I C A L APPENDIX

Table of Contents

1. Purpose ...... 2 2. Criteria definition ...... 2 3. Scoring system definition ...... 3 4. Performance ...... 4

CH2M 1 1. Purpose

The purpose of this technical note is to provide detail on the criteria and scoring system definition in order to inform a Multi-Criteria Analysis of the original 8 cycle schemes proposed within the Cribbs Patchway New Neighbourhood (CPNN) and the packages associated. In the last section, it is presented the performance of each the schemes individually and the packages according to the criteria and scoring defined in the document. 2. Criteria definition

This sub-section defines the criteria and the consistent assessment approach that has been used to undertake the MCA for the 8 CPNN cycle schemes and packages. This sub-section outlines the approach that has been adopted to score each of the schemes against the defined criteria. The criteria have been developed to reflect the overarching objectives of cycling infrastructures investment in CPNN.

1) Criteria 1. The level of improvement made to both walking and cycling facilities for the Cribbs Pathways New Neighbourhood (CPNN) and the Filton Enterprise Area (FEA). The schemes/packages were assessed in relation to the degree of intervention of the route and the spatial coverage provided (length of the scheme). Two variables were considered: length of the scheme and degree of improvement (multiplying by a factor of 1, 1.25 or 1.5).

2) Criteria 2. The safety level provided by the improved or segregated walking and cycle lanes, crossings for pedestrian and cyclists or by the installation of crossing signals. Schemes and packages that included significant safety improvements that pertain to both pedestrian and cycling infrastructure scoring the most (green), in comparison to those that only provide improvements for either cyclists or pedestrians (amber or red).

3) Criteria 3. The potential of the scheme to increase the mode share in the area to achieve the SPD targets (20% of the peak time commuter journeys). Where the proportion of existing walkers and cyclists is low, it is envisaged that the schemes would significantly improve the proportion of commuters using active modes due to the provision of new infrastructure.

4) Criteria 4. The improvement of access to existing employment, housing and essential services. As well as improving access to new housing and new employment opportunities at CPNN/FEA, through active modes. The criterion was evaluated across the following indicators: existing population, existing employment, Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD, 2015) barriers to access services, new housing land and new employment land. Highest scores were giving to schemes and packages which allows accessibility to a higher portion of the existing and new developments while reducing social inequalities.

5) Criteria 5. Value for Money demonstrated through a Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR). Present Value of Benefits were derived from the DfT Active Mode Toolkit which is based on DFT’s Tag Unit A5.1. Schemes and packages presenting a higher BCR were giving higher priority.

CH2M 2 3. Scoring system definition

The scoring system is summarised for each criterion in the following table, giving details on the variables and ranges. Scores are given in a range of colours going from red to green depending on their contribution to the Councils Cycle Strategy and SPD targets. Criteria 1 – Criteria 2 – Safety Criteria 3. Criteria 4. Accessibility Criteria 5. Infrastructure improvements in Potential Value for provision the infrastructure active Money. (factorised provision mode length) share increase

Score 0-250 Some additional Potential Poor accessibility BCR = 1 segregation based on mode share improvements for existing between 1 improvements to increases by and new housing and and 1.5 pedestrian or cycling ≤5% employment land. Less infrastructure than 20% of the LSOA within 20% most deprived in the catchment area.

Score >250 - 500 Some additional Potential Localized accessibility BCR = 2 segregation based on mode share improvements for existing between improvements to increases by and new housing and 1.5 and 2 pedestrian or cycling 5% - 7.5% employment land. Over infrastructure 20% of the LSOA within 20% most deprived in the catchment area.

Score >500 – 1,000 Some additional Potential Moderate accessibility BCR = 3 segregation based on mode share improvements for existing between 2 improvements to increases by and new housing and and 4 pedestrian and 7.5% - 10% employment land. Over cycling infrastructure 40% of the LSOA within 30% most deprived in the catchment area.

Score >1,000 – 3,500 Significant additional Potential Considerable accessibility BCR = 4 segregation based on mode share improvements for existing between 4 improvements to increases by and new housing and and 8 pedestrian or cycling 10% - 12.5% employment land. Over infrastructure 40% of the LSOA within 20% most deprived in the catchment area.

Score >3,500 Significant additional Potential Significant accessibility BCR over 8 = 5 segregation based on mode share improvements for existing improvements to increases and new housing and pedestrian and over 12.5% employment land. Over cycling infrastructure 50% of the LSOA within 20% most deprived in the catchment area.

CH2M 3 4. Performance

Following the criteria definition and the scoring system, the table below shows the performance of each of them by scheme and package. Final C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 assessment Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Scheme 4 Scheme 5 Scheme 6 Scheme 7 Scheme 8

Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4

From the infrastructure provision perspective, the packages which present better performance are package 1 and 4 for delivering greater length of walking and cycling paths with higher proportion of new infrastructure.

From the safety perspective, different individual schemes and packages deliver significant additional safety improvements to the pedestrian and cycling infrastructure, being package 4 the most outperforming for providing segregated cycle lanes and crossing signals all around the development.

None of the schemes individually success in achieving a potential 20% active mode share within the area. Only Packages 1 and 4 present a scenario under which the targets set by the CCS can be met.

In terms of accessibility, it is understood from the final scores that to provide a good connectivity within the development and good accessibility to homes and jobs, more than one scheme needs to be delivered at the same time. Packages are providing coverage to a greater area and serving more people within the existing and new developments and diminishing barriers to access services.

From the Value for Money perspective, both individual and packages can return a good Value for Money, but it is believed that the synergies from delivering these 8 schemes at the same time would increase the overall connectivity within the development in a higher degree if compared to individual actions and could lead to cost reduction.

Overall, the Multi-Criteria Assessment suggests that delivering Package 4 (all 8 schemes) is the most outperforming option aligned with the CCS objectives.

CH2M 4

Department for Chief Executive and Corporate Resources

Pete Davis Date: 12 March 2019 West of England Combined Authority South Gloucestershire Council Chief Executive & Corporate Resources By email Department PO Box 300 Civic Centre High Street Kingswood Bristol BS15 0DS

Dear Pete

CPNN Cycle Links – Full Business Case submission

• I have approved the final Full Business Case for submission to the West of England Investment Board to the value of £3.125M

• Financial approvals are in the process of being put in place by the Sponsoring Body to deliver the project as set out in the Full Business Case.

• All appropriate financial due diligence has been undertaken by the Sponsoring Body in respect of the Full Business Case.

• South Gloucestershire Council is responsible and accountable for ensuring that the project delivers good value for money in the use of public resources, that being the suitability and effectiveness of the project as well as the economic growth and wider societal outcomes achieved in return for the public resources received.

Yours sincerely

Nina Philippidis Deputy S151 Officer, South Gloucestershire Council

Chief Executive and Corporate Resources, South Gloucestershire Council, PO Box 1953 Bristol BS37 0DB www.southglos.gov.uk

Description Countermeasure / Risk response Residual Date of Date ID last

Identified Impact (inc. contingency) Type (inc. consequence & impact) Status Priority update Category Likelihood Impact Priority Risk actioner Likelihood Risk owner Potential for unknown services Established through detail design and R1 PJ R Feb-19 2 3 6 2 1 2 PM PM Feb-19 O and utilities investigation stage

Efficient planning of work and resource Insufficient in-house resource R2 PG R Jan-18 to design and manage projects 2 3 6 Make use of external support through the 2 1 2 PM PM Jan-18 O due to scale of programme SGC framework contract with Jacobs, who have the resource to assist if necessary

Develop detailed and costed Project Plans for individual Projects. Underestimation of scheme R3 PJ R Jan-18 2 2 4 2 1 2 PM PM Jan-18 O costs, leading to cost increases Benchmarking of costs against previous work Reivew and scrutinse detailed designs and R4 PJ R Feb-19 Higher than anticipated civils update cost estimates during design PM Feb-19 O 1 2 2 PM costs 2 2 4 process Change to streetcare Construction overheads are reviewed R5 PJ Feb-19 2 PM PM Feb-19 O R construction overhead 2 2 4 annually, estimates updated. 2 1 Prepare and implement traffic Unforseen traffic delays during management plans. Advertise notices of R6 PJ Feb-19 construction further resticting works before commencement. Early PM Feb-19 O working hours and extending engagement with Highways England if 2 2 PM R construction duration 1 3 3 required. 1 Adverse weather slows Plan construction for summer months. R7 PJ Feb-19 PM Feb-19 R construction 2 3 6 Include time contigency. 2 1 2 PM O Liaise with traffic manager at early stage. R8 PJ Feb-19 Unable to agree traffic Discuss proposals with streetworks PM Feb-19 R management measures 1 3 3 manager 1 2 2 PM O PJ (hayes way and Open up early discussions and allow Patchway Jan-18 PM Jan-18 sufficient time within project plan schemes 6 3 PM R9 only) R Inability to secure land 2 3 1 3 O Delays due to other timing of PJ Feb-19 Liaise with other scheme managers early. PM Feb-19 R10 R other works in the vicinty 2 2 4 1 2 2 PM O

Appendix G – Logic Model and Monitoring and Evaluation Plan

Context and Rationale 1. Scheme background and context

The CPNN Cycle Links package will help to deliver jobs and growth in South Gloucestershire. It is a robust and deliverable proposal that will improve transport connections and stimulate economic growth. The programme focusses on improving walking and cycling links, improving access to opportunities, facilities and services, for all groups in society.

The Cribbs / Patchway New Neighbourhood CPNN is set to provide an additional 5,000+ new homes through redevelopment of the Filton Airfield site and this development is dependent on the full implementation of the sustainable transport package. Whilst a network of strategic walking and cycling routes within the CPNN site will be provided by the developers it is also necessary to provide improved connections to the new neighbourhood area from existing residential and employment areas nearby to avoid dependence on solo car use and its associated congestion and public health issues. These problems cannot be mitigated solely through private sector projects; public sector investment is also needed. Provision of improved walking and cycle routes is an essential part of the required infrastructure to meet our economic growth ambitions, and having these links inplace ahead of the build out of the development is crucial to being able to encourage new residents and employees to choose walking and cycling over less sustainable travel modes.

The programme will enhance the accessibility of employment opportunities and essential services and facilities – thus providing greater choice for residents and tipping the balance towards the use of more sustainable modes of travel. Associated benefits will be realised through improved health and wellbeing of residents and reliability of the transport network, helping to support a more competitive economy.

Milestone completion dates Baseline month/year Actual completion Full Business Case approval May 2019 Programme start Jun 2019 Programme scheme completion Jan 2021 Hayes Way Path Outline Design and Consultation Complete Finalise access to land agreements Jul 2019 Start Scheme Build on site(after nov-jan Feb 2020 Mall works embargo) Finish Scheme Build on site Sept 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, Jan 2021 accounts etc. Catbrain Hill Outline Design and Consultation Complete Start Scheme Build on site Jun 2020 Finish Scheme Build on site July 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, Oct 2020 accounts etc. Patchway Station to A38 Outline Design and Consultation Complete Finalise land agreements Jul 2019 Start Scheme Build on site Sept 2019 Finish Scheme Build on site Oct 2019 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, Apr 2020 accounts etc. A4018 Outline Design and Consultation Complete Start Scheme Build on site(after nov-jan Feb 2020 Mall works embargo) Finish Scheme Build on site May 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, Sept 2020 accounts etc.

Doc v21 Last updated Nov 2017 Church Road Outline Design and Consultation Complete TRO process complete Oct 2019 Start Scheme Build on site Feb 2020 Finish Scheme Build on site Mar 2020 Scheme complete following Safety Audit, Aug 2020 accounts etc.

Doc v21 Last updated Nov 2017 2. Logic Model Objectives Resources/ Input Activities Outputs Direct & Indirect Outcomes Impact The aims/ objectives of the scheme are: In order to achieve the set of activities In order to address the aims and We expect that, once accomplished We expect that if accomplished these outputs will We expect that if accomplished these (Ensure that all aims/objectives are to fulfil these aims/ objectives we need objectives we will accomplish the these activities will produce the lead to the following change e.g. new products or activities will lead to the following changes SMART) the following: following activities: following deliverables: services, skills, behaviour, new business/contracts, in service, organisation or community: (Resources should not be limited to (What will the money be used for? e.g. (Provide measurable outputs e.g. etc: (quantitative economic impacts e.g. money e.g. grant, match funding, in- construction, project management, length of new road/cycle path, m2 of (Ensure that all outcomes are SMART and relevant to indirect jobs and/or GVA to be cross- kind, project team, specialist support, equipment/fit out, etc): space constructed/refurbished, the aims/objectives to allow for attribution; referenced with FBC as appropriate) etc. The inputs define the scope of the number of businesses supported, distinguish between direct and indirect outcomes) project being considered in the logic learners engaged, etc) model ) Provide high quality active and  Capital investment  The programme will need to be  Approx 2,100 metres of  Direct and indirect benefits during the  Increased access to the Cribbs- sustainable transport infrastructure  WECA Early Investment progressed through the following new off road cycle route. construction stage amounting to approx. 59. Patchway New Neighbourhood, the to: Fund: £3.125m stages: FTEs (32 direct, 27 indirect) and £2.4 m in Filton Enterprise Area and other  enhance accessibility to  Approx 1,100 metres of GVA (£1.3 million direct, £1.1 million major employers in the North employment, retail and essential  Officer resource to develop and  FBC approval: May 2019 improved off road cycle indirect). Fringe services and facilities deliver the programme  Programme start: June 2019 route.  support economic growth  Programme completion: Jan  Direct and indirect benefits during the  Better access to essential services,  reduce harmful vehicle emissions  Input from elected members 2021  Provision of 1 new operational stage amounting to approx. 124 facilities and opportunities by active and other key stakeholders Toucan crossing FTEs, £36.5m GVA, and 114 homes enabled. travel modes and more sustainable  The programme comprises 5 travel modes  Input, agreement and approvals individual schemes:  Estimated 10-150% higher rates of walking from Network Rail and Land and cycling along new ped/cycle routes  Reduced congestion, airborne owners. 1. Hayes Way Cycle Path associated with the package of schemes. pollutants and carbon emissions 2. Catbrain Hill Surface  Contractor time to deliver improvement  Indirect and/or un-measurable outcomes construction works 3. Patchway Station to A38 (not measurable/distinguishable from link background changes – however 4. A4018 NCN meauresment of increased walk & cycle improvements activity will be used to infer impacts in these areas, apart from Noise impacts: 5. Church Road contraflow  Noise

 Greenhouse gases  Physical activity  Decongestion  Local Air Quality

Doc v21 Last updated Nov 2017 3. Evaluation design and methodologies

Key evaluation questions

• Have outputs been delivered?

• Have measurable direct and indirect outcomes been achieved including: • Increase in use of active travel modes on new/improved routes. • Uplift in GVA and jobs in the construction and operation stage.

• Have any un-anticipated outcomes been realised?

• What lessons have been learned about programme delivery, considering: stakeholder, partner and beneficiary feedback?

Evaluation methodology

Process – scheme development via West of England programme management, engagement with stakeholders, lessons learned.

Combination of outcome and impact - by capturing the metrics on an annual basis via surveys and traffic counts. For instance:

Jobs and GVA uplift: estimated using project spend in line with ‘Impact Guidance Note: A guide to estimating economic impact for infrastructure projects in the West of England’.

Active mode increase: - measured using traffic/ped/cycle count information at key locations and where linkages can be made to Travel to Work survey data.

Homes enabled: estimated through discussions with Council’s relevant development control and area teams; and supplementary discussions with developers.

Audience

The audience for the evaluation reports and medium of communication are below:

WECA Board: - Quarterly Reports, Yr 1 and 3 evaluation reports Members: - Yr 1 and 3 evaluation reports Public: - Yr 1 and 3 evaluation reports Published at: https://travelwest.info/projects

4. Data requirements 4.1 For schemes fully or part-funded via the Local Growth Fund only Relevant performance indicators will be provided for each scheme when a draft logic model is shared at, or prior to, submission of a Full Business Case for approval

N/A

4.2 Data collection methods  Provide an overview of the data collection approaches including timing and frequency of data collection.

Doc v21 Last updated Nov 2017  Describe links with other monitoring activities where relevant.  Where appropriate, provide maps showing the spatial coverage of the data collection. (indicative 250 words)

1. FTE’s and GVA: – established through project spend in reference to job and GVA benchmarks in: ‘Impact Guidance Note: A guide to estimating economic impact for infrastructure projects in the West of England’. 2. Walking/Cycling uplift: - measured using traffic count (and where linkages can be made) annual Travel to Work survey data. (annual data)

4.3 Data collection and establishing the baseline  Refer to the scheme logic model to help structure the baseline data collection and reporting activities.

Metric Unit Frequency Data source Baseline Reporting to? (inc. Target) (& Responsibility) date Inputs Expenditure £, by Quarterly Supplier invoices; FBC at full WECA highlight Capital –£3.125m 2019/20 source Quarterly grant approval May report; Project to 2020/21 claims – Programme 2019 governance Manager Outputs Type of infrastructure km B/A Project lead FBC at full WECA highlight delivered – walk/cycle reporting to approval May report; Project path Programme 2019 governance Manager Type of infrastructure # B/A Project lead FBC at full WECA highlight delivered – crossing reporting to approval May report; Project points/safety Programme 2019 governance improvements Manager

Metric Unit Frequency Data source Baseline Reporting to? (inc. Target) (& Responsibility) date Outcomes and impacts Direct and indirect benefits # FTEs Quarterly Supplier invoices; FBC at full Yr 1 and 3 during the construction £ GVA Quarterly grant approval May evaluation stage amounting to claims – Programme 2019 reports approx. 59 FTEs and Manager £2.4m in GVA . Direct and indirect benefits # FTEs Quarterly Supplier invoices; FBC at full Yr 1 and 3 during the operational £ GVA Quarterly grant approval May evaluation stage amounting to claims – Programme 2019 reports approx. 124 FTEs £36.5m Manager GVA, and 114 homes emables. Estimated 10 - 150% # Annual Traffic counts 09/2018 Yr 1 and 3 higher rates of walking and/or travel to evaluation and cycling along new work survey where reports ped/cycle routes applicable - Project lead reporting to

Doc v21 Last updated Nov 2017 associated with the Programme package of schemes. Manager

5. Delivery plan  Provide a project plan and timeframe for data collection and reporting of monitoring and evaluation findings (ie. when key activities will take place, including baseline work, interim and final findings).

M&E delivery plan

2019 2020 2021 Activity Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Quarterly Grant Claims Highlight Report Walk/Cycle counts

Annual Travel to work survey Evaluation Report

- Plus Evaluation report in Q2 2022 and Q2 2024

6. Resourcing and Governance

The resource budget for M&E has been built into the allocation for scheme project management and estimated at 15 days. Regular communication between the Project Manager and scheme leads will ensure that data is provided to meet WECA deadlines. The quality checking of this data will be undertaken by the Programme Manager and SRO. an allowance of £500 per ped/cycle/traffic count has identified within the scheme costs. This equates to an approximate budget of £6,000 for baseline and follow up monitoring for relevant schemes.

Named M&E contact [NAME REDACTED]

7. Dissemination

The evaluation will be used to improve future investment in sustainable transport. The impact and experience of users will inform future design and delivery of interventions. It will help us understand and support the research on impacts both (positive and negative) on the needs of diverse groups.

The evaluation will be shared with elected members, interested stakeholders, and staff within SGC as well as the funding body to ensure that the impact and outcome of the funding can be demonstrated to future decision makers. The evaluation will also present case studies for any future similar interventions within other communities within the sub-region.

Doc v21 Last updated Nov 2017 1.1 CPNN Cycle Links: Operational Stage Wider Impacts

1.1.1 Gross to Net Conversion Envisaged impacts can also be presented as net values using West of England’s impact guidance note (appendix D). The Local Enterprise Partnership’s document provides robust benchmarks e.g. “net additionality factors” that aims to capture a more accurate reflection of the economics benefits from regeneration and infrastructure schemes over time within the context area. This best practice approach helps mitigate the risk of exaggerating potential returns, taking into account additionality factors such as deadweight, displacement, leakage and, where relevant, substitution. The values can be seen below in Table 1 and for the purpose of this assessment, the single factor gross-to-net ratio of 51% has been used.

Table 1 - WoE Additionality Guidance

Table 2 below shows the conversion from gross impacts to net economic impacts attributable to both the wider 8 schemes in general and the 5 schemes associated with this particular round of funding request.

Single Net Factor (Source: WoE LEP Gross Impacts Appendix D) Net Impacts Jobs Attributable to 8 Cycle Schemes 160 51% 81 Jobs Attributable to 5 Schemes 124 51% 63 GVA Attributable to 8 Schemes £46,926,984 51% £23,932,762 GVA Attributable to 5 schemes £36,479,309 51% £18,604,448 Land Value Uplift attributable to 8 schemes £4,920,863 51% £2,509,640 Land Value Uplift attributable to 5 schemes £3,825,298 51% £1,950,902 Commercial LVU relating to 8 schemes £295,807 51% £150,861 Commercial LVU relating to 5 schemes £229,949 51% £117,274 Homes enabled by 8 schemes 147 51% 75 Homes enabled by 5 schemes 114 51% 58 Table 2 - Gross to Net Impacts Attributable to CPNN 5 Schemes