The impact of on race and community relations

october 2019 www.hopenothate.ORG.UK The Impact of Brexit and a no deal outcome on race and community relations in Britain

page 1 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Race relations in Britain are already fragile. n A third of BME voters have witnessed or Black and ethnic minority groups feel the brunt experienced violence or threats of violence in of inequalities in Britain, as well as facing the last year institutional and societal . Brexit will n Half of BME voters have witnessed or compound all of these problems. experienced racist comments being made in HOPE not hate have stood against a hard Brexit public in the last year that would damage our communities. A hard n Half of BME voters have witnessed or Brexit offers our communities a grim future – experienced racism on social media in the and that’s before we factor in the impact of last year free trade deals – which will likely make things Our research also shows how Brexit has worse. We believe that a hard Brexit is being energised those spreading hate, has enabled used by the radical right, inside and outside the prejudice and has fuelled the threat of political Conservative Party, to dramatically change British violence. society – and change it for the worse. The impact of Brexit on Black and minority A hard Brexit will make Britain poorer and much ethnic people is going to be a huge challenge. more unequal. The negative effects will hit Race on the Agenda have described BME people those who have taken the greatest economic in Britain as in a “triple bind”. Not only are BME hits hardest during the last 20 years. All of this people more likely to be affected by austerity will fall hardest on those who are already most policies, they are also more likely to be already marginalised and discriminated against. worse off economically or to be in insecure work, New HOPE not hate polling of BME people in and are the main targets of resentment and Britain confirms that the impacts of Brexit are hate crimes. Brexit is set to worsen all of these already being felt by Black and minority ethnic elements1. communities. This briefing outlines our research findings into n Half of BME voters thinks that the state of how a hard Brexit will affect community and race race relations have gotten worse in the last relations in Britain and what needs to happen to five years limit the damage. Photo: Ian Halsey

page 2 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Race relations in Brexit Britain The impact of the Leave campaign charged The vast majority of BME people (68%) are concerns about immigration in Britain, and concerned that Brexit is feeding prejudice and played on racist stereotypes using provocative division and taking our country backward- only imagery of the 2015 “refugee crisis” and 7% disagree. The majority of BME voters also felt amplifying a “threat” from Turkey, feeding anti- the state of race relations in Britain had gotten Muslim prejudice. In 2018, the UN’s special worse over the last five years (49%), with just rapporteur on racism and xenophobia argued a small minority saying that things had gotten that the 2016 vote to leave the EU had left racial better (13%). and ethnic minorities “more vulnerable to racial 2 When asked about people’s individual discrimination and intolerance” . experiences of racism in day-to-day life, the Indeed, Home Office data indicates there was responses are shocking. a sharp increase in racially and religiously With the exception of violence or threats to motivated hate crime during and following the violence, more BME people in Britain have EU referendum3, there were reports of huge 4 witnessed or experienced various forms of increases in xenophobic bullying in schools , discrimination in the past year than have not. and reports of racist abuse in football rose by 5 6 In day-to-day life over the last 12 months, 43% 43% last season . A poll by Opinium from earlier of BME people in Britain have witnessed or this year found that overt ethnic abuse and experienced racism in the press. 49% of BME discrimination reported by ethnic minorities has people have witnessed or experienced racism on risen from 64 per cent at the beginning of 2016 social media, 51% of BME people have witnessed to 76 per cent today. or experienced racist comments being made in National Representative polling of 992 BME public, and 56% have witnessed or experienced people in the UK, commissioned by HOPE not negative comments being made about hate in late August, finds a dire state of race immigration in public. relations in Britain. The impacts of Brexit are In terms of violence the statistics are shocking, already being felt by Black and minority ethnicity with a third (32%) of BME people saying they had groups in Britain, who are seriously concerned witnessed or experienced violence or threats of about the impact a no deal Brexit could have in violence in the last 12 months. Among younger making things even worse. BME people, many more have witnessed or

In your day-to-day life over the last 12 months, have you personally witnessed or experienced any of the following forms of racism or discrimination? (%)

32 Violence or threats of violence 55 13 56 Negative comments about 32 immigration being made in public 12 51 Racist comments being 40 made in public 9 49 Racism on social media 36 15 43 Racism in the press 42 15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

n I have witnessed or experienced this n I have not witnessed or experienced this n Don’t know

page 3 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Respondents by ethnic group (%) I have witnessed or experienced this

80% 73% 70% 68% 67% 66%

70% 66% 65% 64%

60% 56% 54% 54% 52% 50% 49% 49% 50% 48% 46% 44% 43% 42% 43% 42% 41% 40% 39% 40% 39% 36% 34% 33% 33% 32% 32% 31% 27% 26% 26%

30% 26% 22% 20% 20% 14% 10%

0% Racism in the press Racism on Racist comments Negative comments Violence or threats of social media being made in public about immigration violence being made in public

n Arab or Other n Asian (Bangladeshi) n Asian (Chinese) n Asian (Indian) n Asian (Other) n Asian (Pakistani) n Black / African / Caribbean n Mixed race

experienced violence. Almost half of BME Our polling reveals the dire state of race people under 35 (47% of 18-24s and 49% of 25- relations in Britain, where prejudice and 34s) have witnessed or experienced violence or discrimination have a huge impact on the day- threats of violence in their day to day lives over to-day lives of BME people in Britain. the last 12 months. Younger people were also far more likely to Brexit and Anti-Muslim hatred have witnessed or experienced racism on social While Brexit itself is about membership of a media. A staggering 70% of BME people aged 18- European institution, not religious discrimination, 24 reported contact with racism on social media Brexit has fuelled anti-Muslim hatred. The in the last 12 months. politicisation of immigration through the Leave We also found regional differences in people’s campaign latched onto existing anti-Muslim experiences of racism. 72% of BME people in the prejudice to fuel anxieties about immigration and East of England think that race relations have make links between this and EU membership. gotten worse since 2014 compared to 43% in the Our polling has consistently shown how attitudes South East. Twice as many BME people in the to Muslims remain distinctly different, and West Midlands (84%) have seen or experienced more negative, than attitudes towards other racist comments being made in public than in ethnic or religious groups7. The Leave campaign (42%). weaponised images of refugee flows through There was a sizeable difference between the Europe and linking EU membership to Turkey. Following the referendum, hate crime incidents experiences of different ethnic groups. Mixed targeting Muslims surged8. race (70%) and Pakistani people (69%) were most likely to report witnessing or experiencing Anti-Muslim politics has acted as a far-right racist comments being made in public- only springboard towards the mainstream, as 36% of Bangladeshi respondents claimed the modernising arms of the far right distanced same. Black, African and Caribbean (64%) and themselves from biological racism to adopt Pakistani respondents (73%) are all more likely a more ‘palatable’ platform that tapped into 9 to have seen or experienced racism on social broader societal prejudice against Muslims . media, while mixed raced respondents were the Far right figures have also been capitalising on least likely ethnic group to report witnessing Brexit and the sense of democratic betrayal or experiencing racism online, around a third of that has accompanied the stalling process, to mixed race respondents (32%). further an anti-Muslim agenda. Activists from page 4 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

across the UK far right held a ‘Brexit Betrayal’ The feeling that the Brexit vote was feeding demonstration in December 2018, with a view anti-Muslim hatred was experienced first-hand to forcing the government to adopt a unilateral by HOPE not hate activists when they canvassed withdrawal from the European Union ahead of a predominantly white working class estate in the Government’s vote. Billed as a ‘cross party’ Bradford. In what many of our activists, some demonstration the event was organised by with 15 years of history with HOPE not hate, Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (Tommy Robinson) and claimed was their worst experiences of their UKIP’s increasingly isolated leader Gerard Batten. anti-fascist lives, many residents vocalised their The speeches pertained less to the political racist anger towards Muslims. In two instances process of Brexit and its potential outcomes on the same street, residents singled out their than to the ‘threat’ of Islam and Muslims ‘taking Muslim neighbours: “We voted Leave, but why over Britain’. In one of the speeches, Stephen are they still here?” shouted one woman, literally Yaxley-Lennon openly claimed that Brexit wasn’t pointing at the Muslim family across the street. really his area of interest before launching into a A focus group we ran in another area of Bradford tirade of anti-Muslim bile. with a mixed aged group of men of Kashmiri It is not only that the EU referendum opened origin spoke about a racist upsurge, with many Pandora’s Box on anti-immigrant rhetoric, and saying they had experienced greater racial created a more hostile environment for ‘othering’. prejudice since the 2016 vote. A taxi driver spoke The seeping of anti-Muslim politics into the about young people coming back from nights mainstream, the conflation of migrant and out in the back of his taxi saying that they voted refugee flows with Muslims, Islam, a decline Leave as they thought this would mean all the in ‘Western values’ and global terrorism, are Eastern European and Asian people in Bradford piggybacking on anger and frustration around would ‘go home’, but that these people were Brexit. This shaping of prejudiced anti-Muslim even angrier now they realised this wasn’t a narratives on the wider public are clearly being reality. felt by Muslims in Britain. The links between anti-Muslim hatred and EU Our polling finds a huge 70% of people of membership may seem tenuous, but Brexit has Pakistani ethnicity (the vast majority of whom set the conditions for anti-Muslim hatred to identify as Muslim) think that the state of race spread across the lines of acceptability, merging relations in Britain has gotten worse over the anxieties with frustration and creating space for last five years. People of Pakistani ethnicity conspiracies to spread through a process that are among the most likely of all BME groups many feel has not been transparent. to say they have witnessed or experienced all forms of racism. 73% say they have witnessed or experienced racism on social media, 68% have witnessed or experienced racist comments being made in public, and 34% have witnessed or experienced violence or threats of violence.

page 5 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

The impact of a hard Brexit on race relations

While right-wing commentators dismiss the potential damage of a no deal Brexit as Do you expect a ‘no deal’ Brexit on scaremongering, the evidence continues to suggest 31 October to improve or worsen race that a no deal Brexit would be catastrophic for the relations in Britain? UK, especially for our communities. 60

50 The impact of a no deal Brexit on BME people 52 The threat of a no deal has receded, but not 40 been entirely eradicated. While the impacts of a 30 no deal outcome on trade and GDP are well have 20 been well broadcast, the impact on community 20 relations has been less well documented. 10 14 13 A briefing from Race on the Agenda10 has shown 0 how BME people are more likely to feel the Total (%) direct impacts of a no deal Brexit. BME people n Worsen n Improve in Britain face inequality across education, n Make no difference n Don’t Know housing, employment and income, and reductions in public spending since 2010 have disproportionately affected BME families11. are most likely to think BME people will be disproportionately impacted. The impact of a no deal Brexit on BME communities will be disproportionately Those who face intersecting inequalities are damaging. Falls in sterling, a decline in GDP, especially likely to feel that a no deal Brexit and as looks likely, falling into a recession, would affect BME people most. BME women will push up the cost of living and reduce real are among those who feel BME people will be wages, which will most affect those already in disproportionately impacted by a no deal Brexit precarious positions. (48% of women agree compared to 40% of men). 65% of low-income households (those earning Black, Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups are, £10-20,000 a year before tax) think BME people on average, paid less than White groups and will be disproportionately impacted by a no deal tend to have lower rates of employment, and Brexit. A no deal Brexit would widen the gaps on the impact of a no deal Brexit on key industries, inequality even further. such as manufacturing or services are also more likely to affect BME people who are Perhaps then it is no wonder that BME people disproportionately employed in these sectors12 in Britain are pessimistic about the future in and in precarious work13. a post-Brexit world. In our poll, 61% say they are pessimistic about the future- just 39% Our poll finds that 44% of BME people in Britain say that they feel optimistic about the future. agree that a no deal Brexit would be the most Among young BME people (18-24), just 31% feel damaging for Black and minority ethnicity optimistic for the future, and just 8% of BME people in Britain- just 15% disagree. People of people who define themselves European feel Indian (66%) and Bangladeshi (61%) ethnicity optimistic for the future. And it is not just the economic impacts which A no deal Brexit would be the most are most likely to be felt by BME communities. A damaging for Black and minority huge 52% of BME people expect a no deal Brexit ethnicity people in Britain to worsen race relations in Britain. Among those who felt a no deal Brexit would worsen race relations, 53% felt that this 15 Total disagree would enable more negative comments about immigration to be made in public, 41% felt it Total agree 44 would cause an increase in racist comments being made in public. 40% felt racism on social media would increase and the same proportion Neither agree 41 or disagree felt racism in the press would increase. 0 10 20 30 40 50 38% thought a no deal would see growing tension between communities, 34% felt there page 6 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

would be increased violence and 32% anticipate think that giving the British people a vote on the a surge in support for the far right. final Brexit outcome would be most damaging. When given a selection of outcomes from Brexit, 12% think that leaving with a deal will be most BME people think that leaving the EU on October damaging for British race relations, and while the 31st would be the most damaging Brexit there have been claims that not leaving the EU outcome for race relations in the UK (28%). Only would be seen as betrayal and cause unleash 6% think that delaying Brexit beyond the 31st of riots and racial tension, just 25% think that October would be most damaging and only 9% remaining in the UK would be most damaging.

Do you think that each of the following will be better if the UK remains in the EU, or if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, or do you think that it doesn’t make much of a difference either way?

60%

50% 50 48 48 46 40%

30%

20% 20 19 18 18 19 18 17 16 17 16 10% 15 15

0%

Economic prospects for Economic prospects of Opportunities for children The NHS you and your family your community growing up today

n Better if the UK Leaves the EU without a deal n Better if the UK Remains in the EU n Don’t know n It doesn’t make too much difference either way

Do you think that each of the following will be better if the UK remains in the EU, or if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, or do you think that it doesn’t make much of a difference either way?

60%

50% 52 52 51

44 40% 42

30%

26 27 20% 21 22 21 18 17 16 16 10% 15 15 14 12 10 11 0%

Our protection Dealing with the Investment in the The economy as a British against terrorism growing threat from UK by international whole industry Russia companies n Better if the UK Leaves the EU without a deal n Better if the UK Remains in the EU n Don’t know n It doesn’t make too much difference either way

page 7 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Which words best describe Boris Johnson?

Churchillian 3 Racist 18 Diplomatic 11 Elitist 12 Intelligent 20 Womaniser 13 Irresponsible 28 Self-serving 30 Ruthless 20 Untrustworthy 32 Determined 24 Extreme 11 Brexiteer 22 Buffoon 42 Leader 23 Statesman-like 13

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

n Total (%)

Which of the following outcomes of Brexit fewer than a quarter say they would vote to do you think would have the most damaging leave the EU (24%). Only 8% say they would not impact on race/community relations in the vote in a new vote on EU membership. UK? Total (%) The vast majority of BME people are not confident that a no deal Brexit would make Delaying Brexit beyond October 31st 6% things better for themselves, their communities Don’t know 20% or the country as a whole and see negative impacts across a range of issues. Giving the British people a vote on the 9% final Brexit outcome 48% of BME people think their own economic prospects would be better if the UK remains in Leaving the EU on 31st October with a deal 12% agreed by Boris Johnson the EU- just 15% think they would be better in a no deal scenario. Half (50%) think the economic Leaving the EU on 31st October without a deal 28% prospects of their community would be better Remaining in the EU 25% if the UK remains in the EU- just 15% think they would be better in a no deal scenario. 46% of BME people think there would be greater Views of BME people on Brexit opportunities for children growing up today if the UK remained in the EU, and the same proportion Given the potential impacts of a no deal Brexit think that the NHS would be better if the UK on BME communities and race relations in the remained in the EU. Only 18% think the NHS UK, there is perhaps no surprise that BME voters would be better off in a no deal outcome. reject a no deal Brexit. Our poll finds that 57% of BME people in Britain think a no deal Brexit BME people are most likely to describe Boris would be a bad thing for Britain. The same Johnson as a Buffoon (42%), untrustworthy proportion (57%) oppose Britain leaving the EU (32%), self-serving (30%), or irresponsible (28%), without a deal. Only 16% of BME people think a and do not feel that Johnson is working or them. no deal Brexit would be a good thing for Britain, More than four times as many BME people (22%) and 16% think it would make no difference. are not confident that Boris Johnson will get If there was a public vote now on whether the a better deal with the EU than as UK should leave the European Union, or stay are confident that Boris will get a better deal in the European Union, 61% of BME people in (5%). More than four times as many BME people Britain would vote to remain in the EU, while (21%) are not confident that Boris Johnson will page 8 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

deliver a no deal Brexit without any negative group think the state of race relations in Britain consequences to the British economy as think he has gotten worse over the last five years and will (just 5%), and more than four times as many 94% expect a no deal Brexit to worsen race BME people (22%) are not confident that Boris relations in Britain. They are most likely to think Johnson will make life better for people like that a no deal Brexit will damage all aspects of them as think he will (just 5%). Britain’s economy and society, and 81% think a BME people have little faith that Boris Johnson no deal will be most damaging for BME people in will deliver on any of his promises, too. A tiny Britain. 6% of BME people in Britain have faith that Boris Johnson will deliver Brexit, honour his recent spending promises and improve the BME Leave voters economy. Almost twice as many BME people The stereotype of a white, uneducated, racist believe that a number of companies will move North being responsible for the 2016 decision their factories out of the UK if Britain leaves the to leave the EU hides much of the complexity EU without a deal (48%) as think this threat is behind the vote. There has been little discussion exaggerated (29%). of how Britain’s ethnic minorities voted, despite an estimated quarter of BME voters backing Promises made by the leave campaign intended 17 to attract support from BME voters, that after Leave in the referendum . However, our polling Brexit it would be easier to obtain non-EU suggests that BME Leave voters are among the visas, are also rebutted by BME voters. A tiny most likely to have changed their minds on 24% of those polled believe that, in a post- Brexit, spurred in part, as a result of unleashed Brexit Johnson led Britain, promises made at racial and xenophobic prejudice. the time of the EU referendum in 2016, by the In our July 2018 poll of 10,383 people, only 27% Leave campaign claiming that a post-Brexit of those of Pakistani heritage who voted to leave Britain would mean greater immigration from the EU in 2016 said they would vote the same Commonwealth countries and increased family way if there was a referendum today. reunions will be honoured. 45% think this is not In our latest poll, more BME Leave voters think going to happen. that leaving the EU without a deal would be bad for Britain than think it would be a good thing. More Leave voters think that leaving under a BME EU citizens in Britain deal (22%) or without a deal (22%) would have The future for many EU citizens in Britain the most damaging impact on race/ community remains uncertain. While the roll out of settled relations in Britain. Just 6% say delaying Brexit and pre-settled status is attempting to provide would have the worst impact, 10% say the most a smooth route to remaining in the UK, the damaging scenario would be putting a final vote scheme had a rocky start and even now, just to the people, and 32% say remaining in the EU weeks form the UK’s planned departure, fewer would be the most damaging outcome. than half of those currently in the UK have 14 BME Leave voters are less likely than other BME applied for settled status . Moreover, of those groups to say that they have experienced or who are applying, many more are finding witnessed forms of racism or discrimination in themselves in an even more precarious position, the last 12 months, however, 71% of BME Leave without the guaranteed permanent right to voters are also concerned that Brexit is feeding 15 remain . Levels of awareness of the settled prejudice and division and taking our country status scheme remain low, particularly among backwards. more marginalised EU citizens, such as Roma people. BME Leave voters are also more pessimistic than those who voted to remain in the EU. 77% BME people born in the EU and living in the UK, of BME Leave voters say they feel pessimistic who are expected to number around 250,00016 about the future, compared to 64% of BME people, have remained relatively invisible in the people who voted to remain in the EU. This sits Brexit debate. As a population that are visibly in contrast to Leave voters in the population as different from the majority, this group face a whole, who our research18 shows moved from multiple forms of discrimination, all of which are an overwhelmingly pessimistic group prior to the compounded by uncertainty around their right to 2016 vote, to a group of optimists. remain in the EU. There is no ‘typical’ Leave voter, and there is a Our polling finds that BME residents who lot of diversity among BME people who voted identify as European are most anxious about leave, who did so for many different reasons. the implications of a no deal Brexit. 83% of this However, it is clear that in the face of rising page 9 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

racism, prejudice and discrimination enabled by Animosity towards migrants and minorities the vote, many BME Leave voters have changed is often a manifestation of resentments and their minds. frustrations, which will be fed by a no deal Brexit. The damaging impact on poor white communities where people may already hold Brexit, Fear and Loss prejudice views and frustrations at the Brexit process, will fuel further anger. The vote to leave the EU and the politicisation of immigration during the referendum campaigns This is likely to be amplified by the bursting of normalised xenophobic rhetoric, emboldened an optimism bubble, inflated by false promises racism and created fertile conditions for hate. from opportunistic politicians. Those who found A no deal Brexit would not only bolster these a newfound sense of optimism that Brexit may sentiments and add to inequalities between improve their lot, open new opportunities and white British and BME people, but it would increase their prosperity will be hit with a very create conditions that would drive resentment different reality. and further anger among those who expected Many of those who are most optimistic about Brexit to bring them greater prosperity. Brexit also share some of the most negative Hope not hate research19 has shown how a attitudes towards multiculturalism and sense of loss, a feeling of something being taken immigration, and expect immigration to fall away, and of community decline, can feed anti- sharply after Brexit. Their disappointment at immigrant attitudes. Our research has found that decline in their own lives and the realisation when people share anxieties about immigration, that the majority of EU citizens in the UK will they rarely do so in isolation from broader remain could see anger targeting migrants and grievances in their lives. minorities to boil over. Where opportunities are greater, and where people feel more in control of their own lives, and optimistic about their successes, where people are more educated, and where people have more meaningful contact with people of different backgrounds, these communities are more likely to become more resilient to hateful narratives and to political manifestations of hatred. Our data has found the greatest enmity towards migrants and minorities is likely to be held in places that shared a similar profile; coastal or post-industrial towns with almost homogenously white British populations, areas out of core cities, where industry and jobs had been lost, where levels of education and skills were poor, and where there were few opportunities.

page 10 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Heading for Civil Unrest?

A no deal and the reach of the far right Instead, a no deal Brexit would worsen the conditions of their own lives, and add to a sense The far right have adopted a no deal Brexit of pessimism and resentment which the far right as part of their broader mission. Messages of will exploit. breaking all ties with an ‘oppressive’ Europe and ‘taking back control’, framed through a narrative of nationalism and betrayal by a ‘treacherous How much is it about immigration, and how elite’ and lined with anti-immigrant narratives much is it about opportunity? and conspiracies about a Muslim takeover of Europe enabled by EU figures such as Merkel. Immigration was a driving force behind the vote to leave the European Union. In our January Groups such as the Democratic Football Lads 2018 YouGov poll, a massive 74% of Leave voters Alliance (DFLA) and have been said that immigration was one of the three most organising around ‘Brexit betrayal’, with messages important reasons for their decision, the most passed around online groups threatening rioting, popular choice of all Leave voters. civil unrest and violence20. In our December 2018 Populus poll21, 46% of people said that they were That same poll found that the majority of people concerned that there would be public disorder if expected immigration to decline a bit after the decision to leave the EU were reversed, with Britain leaves the EU, but few (22%) felt it would just 28% refuting this. decline substantially. Focus group research Our most recent Fear and Hope report22 Hope not hate conducted this summer would found Brexit to be a key dividing line between indicate that that figure would now much lower, those most likely to support or sympathise as people spoke of their expectations of Brexit with the far right, people who share strongly reducing immigration falling through. negative attitudes towards immigration and At the same time, support for support for multiculturalism, to distrust ‘the establishment’, immigration grew incrementally from the time and hold aggressively anti-Muslim views. of the referendum, with the share of those who However, these people split into two groups, think that immigration has been more good than whereby one half, motivated by Brexit, a group bad for the country up to 63% from 60% in July that were generally older and more economically 2018, and 40% in February 2011. As immigration comfortable, would be more likely to direct has fallen off the political agenda, concern has their anger over Brexit towards voting for the slowly faded. Brexit party than turn out on the streets. This This is not to say there has been a revolutionary group, who we termed ‘hostile brexiters’ share change in attitudes to immigration, and a anti-establishment views but are still likely to significant proportion of the population remain turn out at the polls, identifying most closely opposed. However, in relation to Brexit, anger is with as their political leader. As the less focussed on immigration and has shifted Conservative party has drifted further and further increasingly towards the Brexit process itself. towards the right, this group could also extend their support to the Tories. The potential for violence and civil unrest has far less to do with immigration specifically, but is But while the Brexit party may soak up some of more about opportunism for those who seek to the Brexit anger, we found another group who divide. share very strongly anti-immigration and anti- multiculturalism, and while many voted to Leave the EU, this group are incredibly detached from The threat of political violence the political system and therefore much less In focus groups on Brexit run by Hope not hate motivated by Brexit. Those who fit in this group, in August 2019, participants openly, and casually, termed ‘anti-establishment pessimists’ are spoke about the potential assassination of overwhelmingly pessimistic, are most unhappy politicians, to which others laughed and none about their lives so far, and are most likely challenged. This was not the first time these to think things have got worse over the last sentiments have emerged in focus groups that 10 years. They are also most likely to support we have run, but this was the first occasion Tommy Robinson, and to advocate for violence. where participants seemed to see this as an A no deal Brexit will not deliver an answer for unremarkable, or even inevitable, consequence this group, nor will it resolve their concerns. of current affairs. page 11 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Last week, in Parliament, several MPs warned that the increasingly aggressive language used in the Brexit debate was heightening tensions and could potentially lead to violence against them. Do you think they were…?

34 Highlighting genuine fears of 59 violence 15 42 Talking up fears of violence in 21 order to frustrate Brexit 67 8 Neither 6 7 17 Don’t know 14 12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

n Total n Remain n Leave

A normalisation of political violence has not concerns as ‘talking up fears of violence in order happened overnight. The Brexit process has to frustrate Brexit’. slowly ebbed away at already fragile public trust Leave voters were far more likely to dismiss in politicians and mainstream media, as far right these concerns (67%) while Remain voters were agitators have pushed narratives of politicians as much more likely to think this was a response to ‘traitors’. a genuine threat (59%). The angry political debate The impact of this has clearly been borne out has moved from disagreement to dismissal, in threats and violence towards politicians, and has taken the public with it, manipulating in particular female MPs, but also staff in genuine public anger and frustration over being Westminster and journalists. However, evidence kept in the dark on Brexit for political gain, for this is being dismissed, most recently by the opening up space for opportunists. prime minister himself, who responded to Paula Because there is genuine anger. In this same Sheriff’s emotional statement in parliament poll, we asked people, on a scale of 0-10, where about the level of abuse she and other women 0 means very relieved and 10 means very angry, MPs were receiving with the dismissive how relieved or angry will you be if the UK does “Humbug”. not leave the EU on 31 October? We found the Polarisation that the 2016 referendum left in response split straight down the middle, with its wake means that these incidents have been around a quarter of people at either extreme, used for political gain. Threats of violence and either very angry or very relieved at the prospect. attacks by opportunists, that are very real, are The Government has now made stark warnings being distorted as a partisan issue. Just as the about the potential for this anger to spill over detrimental economic projections of a no deal into riots. But our polling finds that these threats Brexit are dismissed by those who want to too are being interpreted very differently by leave and build anxiety in those who want to remain, the very real concern of violence against different groups. politicians is being seen as an interpretation, not In our October poll, we asked people about a reality. Government ministers’ warning to the media A new poll of 1,600 people carried out by YouGov that there could be serious riots if Britain did for HOPE not hate in early October found that not leave the EU on 31st October. Around a the British public were split over their views quarter of people (26%) thought that they were on rising tensions. 34% of people thought that highlighting genuine concerns of riots but many MPs warnings that the increasingly aggressive more (47%) felt that they were talking up fears of language used in the Brexit debate was riots in order to support Brexit. heightening tensions were highlighting genuine Remain voters were far more likely to think concerns of violence, but 42% dismissed these that these threats were talked up in order to page 12 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

support Brexit (61%) than think these threats It remains only a tiny minority of people who were credible (20%), while Leave voters were would enact violence, but the willingness of so split, with 39% believing threats were talked many to overlook violence in relation to Brexit up and 34% believing that this was a genuine is terrifying. This ambivalence about violence concern. Those who intend to vote for the Brexit is particularly concerning when placed against party were more than three times as likely (46%) a backdrop of a chaotic no deal Brexit whereby as people who intend to vote Lib Dem (14%) to dystopian predictions of shortages of food, think that this was highlighting genuine concerns medication and other supplies, come to fruition, of riots. all of which could well trigger rioting and looting. But the divides on these issues also show just The reality is that the Home Office has failed to how important the spokesperson is. If Johnson keep up with this rapidly shifting public mood. says something his supporters believe him, and While there have been efforts to respond to an opponents do not. If Labour MPs say something anticipated surge in hate crime in the event of a Remainers will believe them while Brexiteers no deal Brexit, following patterns seen after the don’t. This threat is very real, and the political 2016 vote, it is yet to be seen if these efforts are divides we see are masking this. adequate, and less has been done to challenge Our previous Fear and HOPE reports have all the funnelling of this anger towards the political asked whether they would support a campaign class. against the construction of a mosque, and The brutal murder of MP should have whether they would reconsider their views been a moment of change, but far right attacks if things on either side became violent. In on politicians, particularly of those on the July 2018, 66% of people said that they felt left, have grown. Recent attacks saw left-wing violence from either side is unacceptable and journalist Owen Jones violently assaulted outside would reconsider their view. Only 21% felt that of a London pub, and Jeremy Corbyn attacked the issues are so serious that you have to be by members of a far right group at a rally with prepared to support one side or the other, even almost no police protection in place. These if some people on your side sometimes take highlight just how dark things could get. things too far. In these divided times, it is essential that When we asked this question in light of a these attacks are treated with the severity they supporting a campaign to reverse Brexit, just 17% need, rather than seen as a result of political of people who would support such a campaign turmoil and polarisation around a single issue. said that they would reconsider their view if These attacks are not a normal response to a there were protests that became violent or ‘democratic deficit’ over Brexit. When political threatened violence. 64% of people said violence violence becomes normalised, we have moved would not make them reconsider their view23. away from democracy all together.

On a scale of 0-10, where 0 means very relieved and 10 means very angry, how relieved or angry will you be if the UK does not leave the EU on 31 October?

60%

50% 51 49

40%

30%

26 20% 24

10% 11 9 10 10 4 4 3 3 4 8 4 3 3 7 4 7 4 7 7 2 1 6 1 1 2 2 1 6 6 6 2 1 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Don’t Very relieved – Very angry know n Total n Remain n Leave

page 13 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Hate crime data in the UK: Inaccessible and inconsistent

The impact of Brexit on hate crime in England not the data we were looking for. For example and Wales is well documented. Home Office giving us summary counts of number of hate data showed a spike in most kinds of hate incidents of all types for the entire year instead crimes following the 2016 referendum and a year of breakdowns per month and target group. by year increase since 2011. Resulting in data that is both incomparable Understanding hate crime data is complex, to other regions but also not granular enough reflecting both actual changes in committed to draw any conclusions. Only the London hate crimes but also biases in recording Metropolitan Police continuously make detailed incidents and likelihood to report. Rises in data on hate crime available to the public on number of recorded hate crimes could therefore their website. be an indication of positive change, since it You don’t have the right to demand the exact might reflect improvements in identifying format of the data when making an FOI request. and responding to hate incidents. Despite the However, the data returned to us were many inadequacies, analysis of police records of hate times in formats that made it almost impossible crime is the most viable way of monitoring to process it in any other way than manually trends over time. re-entering it, although it was clearly available The publication of a study from the University as digitally readable information from the of Manchester which, using data collected beginning. In one case the data was provided through a Freedom of Information request (FOI) to us in what was clearly screenshots of an submitted to Greater Manchester Police found Excel document (which contained the exact a dramatic spike in religious and racial hate data we asked for) rather than the document crimes in June 2017 - immediately following the itself, although we had asked for a spreadsheet Manchester arena attack and around the time of if possible. A dedicated intern at HOPE not the 2017 general election. hate ended up spending several days per FOI to re-enter the data in spreadsheets to make This encouraged HOPE not hate to attempt a it comparable, but in the three months they systematic collection of hate crime data from were working at HOPE not hate were unable to police forces across the UK in order to better complete this compilation. understand patterns in hate incidents and to align this with HOPE not hate’s attitudinal data Lastly, there are issues with the collection of to find potential linkages. In January 2019, we hate crime incidents itself. There is no uniform sent FOI requests to all police forces in the way of categorising hate crimes in the UK, UK requesting data on recorded hate crime different forces use different categories, making incidents. We requested information on: comparisons difficult. This issue includes variations in levels of granularity (some has 1. Date of the incident (or month if exact date is specific categories for islamophobia and not available) antisemitism while others count these under 2. Location or district religious hate crime). Then there are categories not included by all forces, such ageism and 3. Target of hate crime (typically categorised ableism. as Race, Religion, Sexuality, Transgender, Disability or Subculture but there are regional In the end, this attempt to better understand variations) hate crime has rather become a case study in the inadequacy of hate crime statistics. The Unfortunately, our requests were only answered issue of access to hate crime data is a large by slightly more than half of all police forces, barrier to both academic as well as journalistic and the data that we did manage to collect was research, but presents a far greater issue in the patchy, not uniformly collated, very difficult ability of police to understand and appropriately to interpret and oftentimes did not match our respond to the problem. Moreover, the great request. variation in ways hate incidents are recorded Nine months after making our FOI requests 26 makes further analysis and comparisons out of 48 police forces in the UK has responded between forces very difficult. with data, most of which greatly exceeded It also suggests a lack of training among police the 20 day limit that FOI requests should be in recognising and categorising hate crime. processed within. Some forces apologise ahead We believe there is a need for greater training of time and informed us that they wouldn’t be among police forces to identify and respond able to meet this limit while we are yet to hear to various forms of hate crime, and for a from others. standardisation of data collection on hate crime, The data we received varied greatly in quality. to be developed and resourced by national Of the forces that returned data, about half was government. page 14 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

Keeping our communities safe

It’s stating the obvious to say Brexit has divided already feeling the community impacts of the the UK, but this briefing highlights just how 2016 referendum. This needs to be take seriously damaging these divides are. Community and by authorities. race relations in Britain are already fragile, Hope not hate research has consistently shown and the 2016 referendum has further tested how anti-Muslim prejudice has spread to the the tolerant and open Britain we celebrate, mainstream and how the far right have whipped and firmly disproved the myth of a post-racial up and manipulated anti-Muslim hatred. Yet Britain. there remain huge gaps in how authorities are The responses of our latest poll show how responding. In response to Britain’s departure prejudice blights the daily lives of BME people, from the EU, Muslims in Britain will need more and how Brexit has affected this before we have support. even left the EU. In just the last year over half For example, the Government’s attempts to of BME voters have experienced or witnessed increase funding and improve access to the racist comments made in public, a third have £1.6 million Places of Worship scheme which experienced violence or threats of violence, and offers grants to places of worship from all major half have witnessed or experienced racism on religions for additional protection and security social media. Concerns from BME respondents measures are good. Yet this remains a drop to questions around what would happen in a no in the ocean, especially when fund is spread deal scenario show just how high anxieties are thinly across all religions, compared to the £14m that things are about to get even worse. provided by a separate government fund for A no deal Brexit not only jeopardises the assisting the Jewish community. Moreover there economy, trade, travel, and our security and remain obstacles in mosques accessing these standing, but would deteriorate race and funds, with only 22 mosques accessing these community relations. funds last year24. So, what can be done? The potential for a no deal Brexit to unleash Avoid a hard Brexit at all costs. an even greater threat on Muslim communities A hard Brexit would be a seriously damaging requires the true threat to be assessed and outcome for our community and race relations. responded to, rather than a tokenistic pot of For that reason, parliament needs to avoid hard money that most won’t be able to put to use. Brexit, and absolutely avoid leaving the EU with There is a need for greater training among police no deal at all costs. forces to identify and respond to various forms Recognising and responding to fears and of hate crime, and for a standardisation of data concerns of BME Brits collection on hate crime, to be developed and Our polling has laid bare the scale of fears and resourced by national government. concerns among BME people in Britain, who have Inconsistencies and inaccessibility of hate experienced an increasingly hostile atmosphere crime data limits the ability of authorities to following the 2016 vote. There is a real need understand and appropriately respond to the for decision makers across the Government, challenge of hate crime. devolved and local authorities to respond to Greater police action to the growing threat of these concerns. political violence Responding to these fears will take more than Behaviour which encourages or incites political tokenistic campaigns that send a message of violence, such as mock hangings of politicians or tolerance. While positive messages that stand abusing politicians with accusations of treachery, against hate and to promote a positive inclusive need to be taken more seriously by police. identity, real leadership is need to ensure these The growing threat of political violence, and are matched by action. Serious action is needed especially the normalisation of political violence, to improve the recording and addressing of hate must be tackled head on. crime, to tackle hate in the press and online and Greater protection for serving politicians to address systematic inequalities. Complaints from politicians who have received Acknowledging and responding to the link abuse or been targeted by individuals and between Brexit and anti-Muslim prejudice organised groups must be taken more seriously, The link between Brexit and anti-Muslim and with a more consistent approach from prejudice has not been made pronounced, but force to force across the country. As the Brexit our polling suggests that Muslims in Britain are deadline draws even nearer, it is essential page 15 of 16 The impact of Brexit on race and community relations October 2019

that police respond to these threats with the (Endnotes) seriousness they deserve. Politicians should also 1 McIntosh. K, Mirza. R and Ali. I.S. (2018) Brexit for BME Britain: Investigating the Impact, Race on the Agenda see a step up in police protection as threats 2 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-more-racist-after- of violence swell. As Britain enters a General brexit-qb7hd7xl7 election period, no politician should be left an 3 Allen. G and Zayed. Y (2019) Hate Crime Statistics, Briefing paper 08537, 28th March 2019, House of Commons open target for opportunistic attackers. Library Rapid response to secure the right to remain 4 Tyrell, N., Käkelä, E., Corson, S., Sime, D., Kelly, C., McMellon, C., & Moskal, M. (2018). Eastern European Young for EU citizens currently in the UK, and ensure People’s Feelings of Belonging: Any Place in Brexit Britain? widespread awareness of this Glasgow: University of Strathclyde The precarity faced by EU citizens in the UK has 5 BBC Sport (2019) Reports of racist abuse rose by 43% not been assured by the Government’s settled last season, Kick It Out figures show, https://www.bbc.co.uk/ sport/football/49089209 status scheme. Moreover, there is not enough 6 Opinium (2019) Racism rising since Brexit vote https:// awareness of the settled status scheme as it www.opinium.co.uk/racism-rising-since-brexit-vote/ stands, and huge numbers of EU citizens are 7 Carter. R and Lowles. N (2019) Fear and Hope 2019: How Brexit Changed Britain, Hope not hate falling through gaps in the application process. 8 Tell Mama (2017) How race and religious public order With the 31st October deadline hanging overhead, offences rose after EU vote, https://tellmamauk.org/how- race-and-religious-public-order-offences-rose-after-eu-vote/ and a no deal Brexit a real and unpredictable 9 Mulhall. J (2019) Modernising and Mainstreaming: The threat, the government need rapid and Contemporary British Far Right, HOPE not hate commissioned considerable action to ensure that EU citizens by the Government Commission for Countering Extremism currently in the UK know their rights, including 10 McIntosh. K, Mirza. R and Ali. I.S. (2018) Brexit for BME Britain: Investigating the Impact, Race on the Agenda vulnerable groups of EU citizens, and have their 11 Women’s Budget Group and Runnymede Trust (2017), status guaranteed after Britain leaves the EU. Intersecting Inequalities: The Impact of Austerity on Black and Minority Ethnic Women in the UK Overcoming Brexit divisions: a project beyond 12 Morris. M (2018) An Equal Exit? The Distributional October 31st Consequences of Leaving the EU, IPPR Briefing paper The reality is that the 2016 referendum opened 13 TUC (2015), Insecure work and Ethnicity, www.tuc.org.uk/ sites/default/files/Insecure%20 work%20and%20ethnicity_0. up a can of worms that cannot be closed again. pdf. There is no Brexit outcome that will please 14 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49612320/ everyone in Britain. What we need is a solution brexit-eu-settled-status-scheme-what-will-happen-to-me that can begin the process of healing our divided 15 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/eu- citizens-uk-settled-status-alarm nation, that can start to rebuild public trust 16 ONS (2011), ‘LC2205EW – Country of birth by ethnic and that can tackle some of the root causes group’, www.nomisweb.co.uk/ of resentment and hate. We cannot afford to census/2011/LC2205EW fudge together an outcome from Brexit that will 17 https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2018/09/ britain-s-eight-million-ethnic-minorities-are-still-being- eventually rupture society even further. ignored-over 18 Hope not hate (2019) State of Hate 2019, Hope not hate 19 Carter. R (2018) Fear, Hope and Loss, Hope not Hate 20 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ brexit-protests-london-riots-unrest-far-right-boris-johnson- no-deal-a9095161.html 21 Hope not hate (2019) Deepening Divides: How to resolve the Brexit deadlock 22 Carter. R and Lowles. N (2019) Fear and Hope 2019: How Brexit is Changing Britain, Hope not hate 23 Carter. R and Lowles. N (2019) Fear and Hope 2019: How Brexit is Changing Britain, Hope not Hate 24 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/30/ Poll of BME Britons hate-crime-22-mosques-receive-funding-security-uk Fieldwork dates: 26/08/19 – 29/08/19 This survey of 992 BME people, commissioned by HOPE not hate, was conducted using an online interviews administered by Focaldata. This has been weighted to be nationally representative. FocalData’s platform collects data from partners, e.g. traditional online panels and numerous programmatic sampling platforms, that collect survey data from users in native content environments in real-time across mobile, desktop, and tablet devices.

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