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COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANAL YSIS City, -Kansas

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of April 1, 2011

Summary

Economy 2003 through 2005. During the forecast period, demand is expected for 23,100 The economy of the Kansas City HMA new sales units (see Table 1); the roughly is currently weak. During the 12 months 900 homes currently under construction Housing Market Area ending March 2011, nonfarm payrolls will meet part of that demand. In addi- declined by 8,200 jobs, or 0.9 percent, tion, a portion of the estimated 43,600 to 963,600 jobs, while the unemploy- other vacant units may enter the market ment rate averaged 9 percent. The to satisfy some of the forecast demand. information and the transportation

Brown DeKalb Daviess ton Doniphan s ing and utilities sectors and the construction Caldwell iv Buchanan Clinton L Atchison subsector were among those hardest Rental Market Carroll

- Platte Ray

h Clay

en hit by losses. Employment is The rental housing market in the HMA Jefferson rt

eav Wyan- wo

L dotte Lafayette Jackson expected to recover during the next is soft, with a 9.3-percent rental vacancy Douglas Johnson 3 years, increasing by 0.3 percent rate, but vacancies have declined in the Johnson Cass Franklin Miami annually, although job losses could past year because of renter household Henry continue through 2011. Bates growth and reduced multifamily con­ Anderson Linn struction. Fewer than 250 multifamily

i St. Clair Allen units were permitted in the 12 months Bourbon ssour Vernon Sales Market Cedar Kansas Mi ending March 2011 compared with the Neosho The sales housing market in the HMA Crawford Barton Dade 1,700 units permitted in the previous is soft. Sales of existing homes declined 12 months. During the next 3 years, Located on the Kansas-Missouri bor- by 15 percent in the 12 months ending demand is expected for 1,400 new rental der, the 15-county Kansas City Housing March 2011, to about 27,600 homes units (see Table 1); the roughly 650 units Market Area (HMA) has a population sold. Single-family construction now under construction or in the devel­- of more than 2 million. The HMA is in­creased by 4 percent in the past opment pipeline will meet part of that coterminous with the metropolitan 12 months, but building activity re-­ demand. and, for this analysis, is divided into mains well below the peak years of three submarkets: Jackson County, Mis- souri; the six HMA counties in Kansas (Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami, and Wyandotte); and the remaining eight HMA counties in Market Details Missouri (Bates, Caldwell, Cass, Clay, Clinton, Lafayette, Platte, and Ray). Economic Conditions...... 2 Population and Households...... 5 Housing Market Trends...... 7 Data Profiles...... 17 Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Figure 1. Source: U.S. BureauofLabor Statistics

Labor Force & Economic Conditions Resident Employment Summary 1,045,000 1,095,000 1,145,000 845,000 895,000 945,000 995,000 ment Rate in the Kansas City HMA, 2000 to 2010 Trends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemploy Source: Estimates byanalyst some oftheforecast demand. Units underconstruction asof April 1,2011. A portion oftheestimated43,600 othervacantunitsintheHMA willlikelysatisfy Notes: Total represents demand estimatedproduction necessary to achieveabalancedmarket attheendofforecast period. Table 1. Labor Force Under Total Demand Construction

Continued 2000

Housing DemandintheKansasCityHMA,3-Year Forecast, April1,2011to April1,2014 2001

2002 23,100 Sales 2003 Units Resident Employment 900 Kansas City

2004 HMA

2005 ­­nually. NonfarmpayrollsintheHMA than 15,000jobs,or1.6percent,an- payrolls grewbyanaverageofmore From 2004through2007,nonfarm percent, annuallyfrom2000to2003. an averageofabout7,300jobs,or0.7 in 2001,nonfarmpayrollsdeclinedby 12 months. As a result of the percent, comparedwiththeprevious jobs, adeclineof8,200or0.9 farm payrollsaveragedabout963,600 12 monthsendingMarch2011,non trend thatbeganin2008.Duringthe in thepast12months,continuinga recession. Employmenthasdecreased sult ofthelingeringeffectspast T Rental 1,400 Units 650 2006 HMA iscurrentlyweak,are he economyintheKansasCity

2007 Missouri Submarket

2008 Sales Units 5,300 Jackson County, 300

Unemployment Rate 2009

2010 Rental Units 300 300

10.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 - -

Unemployment Rate 10,100 -

Sales Units Kansas Counties 450 Submarket the HMA,although thesector’sshare sector hasasignificant presencein Entertainment Inc. The manufacturing Inc.; H&RBlock,andAMC companies, including Hallmark Cards, as theheadquartersforseveral major respectively. KansasCityalso serves 8,125, 7,300,and6,620employees, and St.Luke’sHealthSystem,with System, SprintNextelCorporation, HMA includeHCAMidwestHealth care. Thelargestemployersinthe center forbusinessservicesandhealth and distributionasaregional the countryasahubforshipping ,servesalargeareaof geographic centerofthecontinental Kansas CityHMA,whichisnearthe became amajorrailhub.Today,the port ontheMissouriRiverandlater Kansas Cityoriginatedasariver ployment rates for 2000 through 2010. resident employment levels and unem previous 12months.Figure1shows from the9.1-percentaveragefor averaged 9.0percent,downslightly the 12monthsendingMarch2011 losses, theunemploymentratefor 1 millionjobs.Withcontinuedjob peaked inearly2008atmorethan Rental Units 300 800

Counties Submarket Remaining Missouri Sales Units 7,700 150 Rental Units 300 50 ­-

Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics not add to totals because of rounding. Notes: Based on 12-month averages through March 2010 and March 2011. Numbers may Table 3. Source: Notes: As of December 24, 2010. Excludes public employers such as local school districts. Table 2. Total NonfarmPayroll Jobs Hallmark Cards, Inc. General MotorsCompany AT&T Inc. Truman MedicalCenters The Children's Mercy Hospital Corporation Cerner McDonald’s Corporation St. Luke'sHealthSystem Sprint NextelCorporation HCA MidwestHealthSystem Service Providing Goods Producing Financial Activities Information Transportation &Utilities Wholesale &RetailTrade Manufacturing Mining, Logging,&Construction Government Other Services Leisure &Hospitality Education &HealthServices Professional &BusinessServices Kansas City Business Journal Book of Lists Economic Conditions 12-MonthAverage NonfarmPayroll JobsintheKansasCity

HMA, bySector Major EmployersintheKansasCityHMA Employer Name of

Continued Information Manufacturing Information Education &HealthServices Education &HealthServices Information Leisure &Hospitality Education &HealthServices Information Education &HealthServices March 2010 12 Months loss of4,500jobsintheinformation munications industrycontributedtoa (see Table3).Layoffsinthetelecom conditions inthenationaleconomy curred insectorsthatweresensitiveto 12 monthsendingMarch2011oc­­ Many ofthejoblossesduring shown inTable2. several ofthelargestemployers,as HMA economy,isrepresentedby which isalsoanimportantpartofthe ities in the area. Telecommunications, large automobilemanufacturingfacil and FordMotorCompanybothhave in 2010.GeneralMotorsCompany from 11percentin1990to7.6 of totalnonfarmpayrollsdeclined 153,800 128,200 140,200 150,800 857,800 114,000 971,800 Ending 40,800 92,600 71,200 36,150 44,050 72,950 41,100 Nonfarm Payroll Sector March 2011 12 Months Ending 154,200 129,700 140,300 150,500 852,700 110,900 963,600 40,450 92,050 71,000 31,650 42,950 72,950 37,950 Employees Number of Change Percent – 12.4 – 1.0 – 0.6 – 0.3 – 2.5 – 0.2 – 0.6 – 7.7 – 2.8 – 0.9 3,700 3,705 3,710 4,080 4,810 4,980 5,700 6,620 7,300 8,125 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 -

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from theprevious12-monthperiod, past 12 months, this is an improvement turing sectorpayrollswereflatinthe stabilized recently. Although manufac current date.Somejobsectorshave sector intheHMAfrom2000to Figure 2showspayrollgrowthby school district layoffs and budget cuts. 1,200 jobs,or1.1percent,aresultof and localgovernmentpayrollsfellby result ofaweakhomesalesmarket, 3,000 jobs,or8percent,partlythe payrolls decreasedbymorethan In addition,constructionsubsector tor fellby1,100jobs,or2.5percent. in thetransportationandutilitiessec sector, a12-percentdecline.Payrolls of 1,600 jobs, or 0.3 percent, annually. are expected to increase by an average continue togrow.Nonfarmpayrolls health servicessector,areexpected to 2 years,suchastheeducation and Sectors thatexpandedinthepast as thenationaleconomyimproves. and utilitiesareexpectedtogrow business services,andtransportation as manufacturing,professionaland through therestof2011.Sectorssuch gradual andjoblossesmaycontinue although therecoverywilllikelybe to increaseduringthenext3years, Employment intheHMAisexpected employment bysectorintheHMA. 5.8 percent.Figure3showscurrent payrolls increasedby1,600jobs,or increase, whilefederalgovernment added 1,500jobs,a1.2-percent education andhealthservicessector partially offsetrecentjoblosses.The occurred inafewothersectors,which the previous 12 months. Notable growth by 7,800jobs,or5.3percent,during 100 jobs, or 0.1 percent, after declining tor recordedaslightincreaseofabout professional andbusinessservicessec­ 8 percent.Likewise,payrollsinthe when payrollsfellby6,350jobs,or

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Economic Conditions Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Note: Currentisbasedon12-monthaveragesthroughMarch2011. Figure 2. – 50 SectorGrowthintheKansasCityHMA,PercentageChange,2000toCurrent – 40 – 30

Continued – 20 – 10 Figure 3. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Based on 12-month averages through March 2011. Leisure &Hospitality9.6% Other Services4.2% 0 Health Services13.5%

by Sector Current NonfarmPayroll JobsintheKansasCityHMA, Government 16.0% Government Education & 10 20 Professional &BusinessServices14.6% Mining, Logging,&Construction3.9% 30 Manufacturing 7.6% Total NonfarmPayroll Jobs Service Providing Goods Producing Financial Activities7.4% Education &HealthServices Professional &BusinessServices Financial Activities Transportation &Utilities Wholesale &RetailTrade Manufacturing Government Other Services Leisure &Hospitality Mining, Logging,&Construction Information Information 3.3% Wholesale &RetailTrade 15.6% Transportation &Utilities4.5% Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current forecast— Figure 4. Figure 5. estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; currentandforecast— Average Annual Change Average Annual Change Population andHouseholds 10,000 15,000 20,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 5,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 0

Population and Household Growth in the Kansas City HMA, 2000 to Forecast Components ofPopulationChangeintheKansasCity HMA, 2000toForecast 2000 to2010 2000 to2010 Net NaturalChange Population sion to hascausednetin-migration people a year. The most recent reces in­ 2005 through2008,netin-migration market afterthe2001recession.From the theweak decade labor becauseof toMigration the HMA slowed early in about 6,000 people a year (see Figure 4). year, averaged whilenetin-migration which averaged about13,700peoplea (resident births minus resident deaths), has beenduetonetnaturalchange thepopulationgrowth 2000. Mostof 19,700, or1.1percent,annually since about to be2,053,000,anincreaseof T increased by about 7,300, or 1.5 percent, Jackson County, wherethepopulation theMissouricountiesoutsideof of Counties submarket,whichconsists fastest intheRemaining Missouri Population growth since 2000 has been slow againinthepast3years. creased, averaging morethan7,300 2010 toCurrent 2010 toCurrent Kansas CityHMAisestimated the populationof he current Households Net Migration Current toForecast Current toForecast -

the Kansas Counties submarket, the partly offsetbynetout-migration. In in Jackson County, thisgrowth morethan4,300 peopleof a year natural change averaged anincrease estimated at676,900.Althoughnet the Jackson Countysubmarketis annually. populationof Thecurrent about 2,000people, or0.3percent, 2000 hasbeenslower, averaging Missouri, populationgrowth since KansasCity, which includesmostof In theJackson Countysubmarket, averaged about4,500peopleayear. which netin-migration, the resultof thegrowth was date.current Muchof annually, the toabout521,500asof with 1.4-percent growth forrenters. 0.9 percent a year since 2000 compared Owner household growth has averaged ing 266,500arerenterhouseholds. cent, are homeowners, and the remain households, about538,800,or67per­ the fore­ household growth from2000through in thepast3years. Figure5shows have caused household growth to slow job lossesandslower in-migration the period 2005 through 2008, but recent household growth was strongest during since 2000. As with popula aboutof 7,950, or 1.1 percent, annually is estimated to be 805,300, an increase households intheKansasCityHMA April1,2011,thenumber of As of date.from 2000tothecurrent thesubmarkets the HMAandeachof population andhouseholdgrowth for on contain information thereport of Tables DP-1 through DP-4attheend averaged about 3,800 people a year. people ayear, whilenetin-migration natural change averaged about6,600 people, annually since2000.Net about 10,400people, or1.3percent Population growth hasaveraged populationisabout854,400. current cast period. Of the current thecurrent cast period.Of ­tion growth,

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 Population andHouseholds analyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimates by analyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimatesby analyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimatesby Figure 8. Figure 7. Figure 6. 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 50,000 0 0 0

Missouri Submarket, 2000 to Current Number of Households by Tenure in the Jackson County, Counties Submarket,2000toCurrent Number ofHouseholdsbyTenure intheKansas Missouri Counties Submarket, 2000 to Current Number of Households by Tenure in the Remaining 2000 2000 2000

Continued Renter Renter Renter 2010 2010 2010 Owner Owner Owner Current Current Current and, intheJackson County, Missouri 1.4 percent,annually (seeFigure7) households increasedby4,200,or Counties submarket,thenumber of nually (seeFigure6).IntheKansas by about2,900,or1.6percent,an­ householdsincreased the number of Missouri Countiessubmarket,where hold growth has been in the Remaining house­ Since 2000,thefastestrateof than 69percentby2010. 73 percentin2007butdeclinedtoless rate intheHMApeakedatmorethan the past3years. Thehomeownership to rentingamonghouseholdsduring holds ispartly attributabletoashift The slower growth inowner house 20,000, or1percent,annually. HMA is projected to increase by nearly the people ayear. Thepopulationof change isexpected toaverage 13,800 6,100 peopleayear, whilenetnatural net in-migration is expected to average remain steady. During the next 3 years, netnaturalchange isexpected to of levels, tonormal return whiletherate totheHMAisexpectedmigration to during theforecastperiod,netin- With jobgrowth expected toresume Figure 8). holds, or0.3percent,annually (see slowest, averaging about850house submarket, householdgrowth was

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Housing Market Trends Source: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Notes: Includesonly single-familyunits.Includes datathroughMarch2011. Figure 9. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 500 0

2000 Single-Family BuildingPermitsIssuedintheJackson County, MissouriSubmarket,2000to2011

2001

2002

2003

2004 Submarket Sales Market—JacksonCounty, Missouri Wood, LLC, duringthe12months standards. Based on data from Hanley economy lending andtightmortgage theweak is currently soft,aresultof Jackson County, Missourisubmarket The saleshousingmarketinthe Summit, arealsoinJackson County. City, andLee’s suchasIndependence Kansas the majorsuburbseastof thecounty, and of part the HMA. Kansas City, Missouri, occupies theKansasCity central countyof Jackson County, Missouri,isthe from ayear earlier. Theaverage price was up by 3 percent, to about $145,400, the 12monthsendingMarch2011 existing single-family homessoldin decrease in sales, the average price for during thesameperiod.Despite about 590to510,orby14per­ iums andtownhomes) declinedfrom ing attached homes (such as condomin the previous 12 months. exist Sales of compared with the number sold during 1,700homessold,or15percent, of were sold in Jackson County, a decline 10,100 existing single-family homes ending March2011,approximately

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 cent,

2011

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According todatafromLPSApplied about 2,500foreclosuresin2005. in Jackson Countyin2010,upfrom residential foreclosures were completed Hanley Wood, LLC, nearly 4,500 in thepastyear. Basedondatafrom distressedhomeloanshas declined of with afew years ago, thepercentage submarket remainshighcompared in theJackson County, Missouri Although homeforeclosureactivity at $143,800. nearly unchanged fromayear earlier, for existing attachedhomesremained Jackson County. salesprices Starting eastern of parts in unincorporated as Greenwood and Grandview or Kansas City, nearcommunities such been inareassouthandeastof inJacksonconstruction Countyhas thesingle-family Figure 9).Muchof more than4,400homesayear (see averagedsingle-family construction By contrast,from2003through2005, 18percent. 12 months, anincreaseof with 420 permitted during the previous were permitted in the county compared 2011, about500single-family homes during the12monthsendingMarch months. data, Basedonpreliminary has reboundedduringthepast12 however, single-family construction its peakfrom2003through2005; souri submarkethasdeclinedfrom building in the Jackson County, Mis decreasingsales, home­­As aresultof down from7.4percentayear earlier. ing homeloansin Jackson County, represented 6.7 percent all outstandof (Real EstateOwned)inMarch2011 delinquent, inforeclosure, orinREO home loans that were 90 or more days Analytics, however, thenumber of -

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Sales Market—JacksonCounty, MissouriSubmarket Housing Market Trends data fromHanleyWood, LLC, the ments andcondominiums. Basedon areas andconverting themintoapart buildings inmidtown ordowntown cases, includesrehabilitatingolder infilldevelopment, which,inmany of the residentialof construction consists Within KansasCity, Missouri,much month period,a10-percentdecline. from $247,600fortheprevious 12- 12 monthsendingMarch2011,down County was about $222,900 during the for new single-family homes in Jackson Hanley Wood, LLC, theaverage price $150,000. Accordingtodatafrom cally range fromabout$120,000to for new single-family homestypi Source: Estimatesbyanalyst submarket willlikelysatisfysome oftheforecastdemand. demand. Inaddition,aportionoftheestimated19,500othervacant unitsinthe Note: The300homescurrentlyunderconstructionwillsatisfysome oftheestimated $120,000 to$140,000.According hoods typically range fromabout in midtown anddowntown neighbor one-bedroom condominiums and lofts pricesfornew since 2009.Starting has averaged about100unitsayear home salesdeclinedafter2008and through 2008. The number attached of averaged nearly 400ayear from2005 number sales of new of attached homes Table 4.

Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing in April 1, 2014 the Jackson County, Missouri Submarket, April 1, 2011 to 800,000 600,000 400,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 125,000 Continued From Price Range($) and higher 799,999 599,999 399,999 299,999 249,999 199,999 149,999 To -

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19,500 other vacant units in the county theestimated it islikely thatsomeof meetthat partdemand. of In addition, will currently underconstruction (see Table 1).Theroughly 300units Jackson County, Missourisubmarket about 5,300new salesunitsinthe 3 years, demandisexpected for household growth duringthenext Based onprojectedpopulationand decline. the previous 12months, a5-percent 2011 comparedwith$197,100during during the12monthsendingMarch County averaged about$187,700 for new attachedhomesinJackson data fromHanleyWood, LLC, prices the forecastperiod. new market-ratesaleshousingduring estimated demandbypricerange for $150,000 and $200,000. Table 4shows expected forhomespriced between period, andthelargest demand is theforecast second andthirdyears of is expected tobestrongest inthe during theforecastperiod.Demand thedemand of will meetaportion Demand Units of 1,325 1,425 110 160 270 530 800 690 Percent of Total 10.0 15.0 25.0 27.0 13.0 2.0 3.0 5.0

Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Jackson County, MissouriSubmarket Housing Market Trends Figure 10. analyst Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by Source: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Includes datathrough March2011. Notes: Includesallmultifamilyunits instructureswithtwoormoreunits. Figure 11. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 500 0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 0 2000

Missouri Rental Vacancy RatesintheJacksonCounty, Multifamily BuildingPermitsIssuedintheJackson County,

2001

2002 2000 Submarket,2000toCurrent Missouri 8.8

2003

2004 Submarket,2000to2011 Continued market hasalsocontributedtoan 12 months. Thesoftsaleshousing line inJackson Countyinthepast 500 new rentalunitshave comeon ply hasincreased,asapproximately household growth. Inaddition,sup joblossesandslow weak, aresultof Demand forrentalunitsremains more than13percentayear ago. Figure 10).Thisrateisdown from rate estimatedat11percent(see is currently soft,witharentalvacancy Jackson County, Missourisubmarket The rentalhousingmarketinthe Submarket Rental Market—JacksonCounty, Missouri unit, $750foratwo-bedroom unit, currently about $600 for a one-bedroom monthly rentsinJackson Countyare in therentalhousingmarket.Average as unsold homes have become available increase intherentalhousingsupply,

2005 2010 13.3 2006

2007

2008

2009 Current 11.0

2010

2011

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Figure 11). Because of weak rental Figure 11).Becauseof County, Missourisubmarket(see units were authorizedintheJackson peaked in2006,whennearly 3,000 issued, permits by thenumber of Multifamily construction, as measured a year ago. than 1percentfromthesameperiod less anincreaseof which represents 2011was about$655, of first quarter County (includingconcessions)inthe effective rentinJackson apartment According toReis, Inc., theaverage and $1,000forathree-bedroomunit. from $500to$625 forstudiounits, monthly rents areexpected torange to becompletedinmid-2012. The Towers expected Apartments—is namedWalnutto a180-unitproperty building indowntown Kansas City anolder ment—the rehabilitationof a month.Anothernew develop units range from$1,355to$1,685 month, andrentsfortwo-bedroom units range from$800to$1,300a Asking rentsfortheone-bedroom which was completedinearly 2010. River Marketarea,neardowntown, inthe Market StationApartments recent development isthe323-unit Blue SpringsandGreenwood. One KansasCity, suchas and southof unitshave beenaddedinareaseast of Kansas City, butasignificantnumber downtown andmidtown areasof hasbeeninthe family construction themulti­ data. Since2005,mostof 12 months, accordingtopreliminary units authorizedduringtheprevious units were down permitted, from700 March 2011, only about 85 multifamily past 3years. Inthe12monthsending activity hasdeclinedsteadily inthe housing demand, multifamily building -

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 Rental Market—JacksonCounty, MissouriSubmarket Housing Market Trends Table 5. Source: Estimates by analyst Note: The 300 units currently under construction will satisfy some of the estimated demand. Monthly Gross Total 1,500 ormore 1,300 to1,499 1,100 to1,299 900 to1,099 700 to899 Rent ($)

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousingintheJackson County, One Bedroom County, Missourisubmarketduring 300 new rentalunitsintheJackson absorbed, demandisexpected for vacant unitsthatwillneedtobe of market andasignificantnumber thesoftrentalhousing As aresultof Jackson County. in are currently underconstruction units. Approximately 300rentalunits and $775to$875fortwo-bedroom $675 to$775forone-bedroomunits, with thenumber soldduringthe homes sold,or 18percent,compared 2,100 in thesubmarket,adeclineof existing single-family homes were sold March 2011,approximately 9,600 LLC, duringthe12 monthsending Based ondatafromHanleyWood, Counties submarketiscurrently soft. The sales housing market in the Kansas Wyandotte County. and another20percentresidesin population lives inJohnson County, thesubmarket’s Nearly 65percentof whichareinJohnson County). of Overland Park andOlathe(both of Wyandotte County);andthesuburbs shares a consolidated government with KansasCity,worth; Kansas(which submarket, include the cities Leaven of which comprisetheKansasCounties theHMA, The sixKansascountiesof Sales Market—KansasCountiesSubmarket Missouri Demand Units of 110 10 10 20 30 40 Continued Submarket,April1,2011to2014 Monthly Gross Total 1,650 ormore 1,450 to1,649 1,250 to1,449 1,050 to1,249 850 to1,049 Rent ($) Two Bedrooms ­- Demand

Units of

120 10 10 25 30 45 HMA duringtheforecastperiod. new market-raterentalhousinginthe estimated demandbyrentlevel for 3-year forecastperiod.Table 5shows the come onlineaftertheendof the submarketshouldbetimedto additional rentalunitsplannedfor the forecastperiod.Therefore, any thedemandduring to satisfyallof areexpected under construction the next 3years. Theunitscurrently nearly 2,900in2010. Bycomparison, closures inthe submarket peakedat completedfore­ LLC, thenumber of According to data from Hanley Wood, it has been declining in recent months. compared withafew years ago, but Counties submarketremainshigh Foreclosure activity intheKansas $133,100. a year earlier, orbyabout$1,400,to homes, however, fell1percentfrom The average price for existing attached from ayear earlier, toabout$209,400. was upbynearly $5,800,or3percent, the 12monthsendingMarch2011 existing single-family homessoldin decrease insales, theaverage pricefor period, to 1,125 units sold. Despite the 100 homes, or7percent,inthesame attached homesdeclinedbynearly pre vious 12 months. Sales of existing ­vious 12months. Salesof Monthly Gross Total 1,650 ormore 1,450 to1,649 1,250 to1,449 1,050 to1,249 Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) Demand Units of 45 10 10 10 15

Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 11 Sales Market—KansasCountiesSubmarket Housing Market Trends Source: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Notes: Includesonlysingle-family units.IncludesdatathroughMarch2011. Figure 12. 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0

2000

Single-Family Building Permits Issued in the Kansas Counties Submarket, 2000 to 2011

2001

2002

2003

2004 Single-family homebuilding, as year earlier. submarket, down from5.1percenta home loansintheKansasCounties alloutstanding sented 4.9percentof quent, in foreclosure, or in REO repre homeloans90ormoredays delin­ of Analytics, inMarch2011,thenumber Ac­ defaultshasdecreased. mortgage 12 months. Inaddition,therateof a 23-percent decrease from the previous sures were completed in the submarket, March 2011,2,100residentialforeclo­ closed. Duringthe12monthsending than 1,100homesayear were fore­ fewerin 2005and2006,anaverage of months, a4-percentincrease. intheprevious1,100 permitted 12 inthesubmarket,upfrom permitted about 1,150single-family homeswere the 12monthsendingMarch2011, data,during Based onpreliminary began to recover in the past 12 months. in2009.Buildingactivitypermitted about 1,050single-family homes decreasing sales, fallingtoalow of tion declinedsteadily asaresultof 2006, however, the volume construc of Counties submarket.Beginningin 2005 (seeFigure12)intheKansas new homes a year during 2003 through issued,averagedpermits nearly 5,200 mea­

2005 cording todatafromLPSApplied Continued sured by the number of building sured bythenumber of

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 -

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family homesinJohnson Countyare, home salespricesfornew single- $150,000 to$175,000,butaverage in theareatypically range fromabout pricesfornew homes HMA. Starting access tojobcentersthroughoutthe other highways, providing improved they arenearInterstate35(I-35)and the urbandevelopment intheHMA, edgelocated atthesouthwestern of Although thesecommunities are Olathe, Gardner, andSpringHill. County, nearcommunities suchas Johnson andwestern in southern for single-family homebuildingis submarket, themostactive area Within theKansasCounties sales unitsduring thenext 3years in expected for10,100new market-rate and householdgrowth, demandis Based onprojectedpopulation 1 percent,fromayear earlier. $1,050,orapproximately increase of homes averaged about$161,800,an decrease. Pricesfornew attached for the previous 12 months, a 1-percent about $311,300,down from$314,200 months endingMarch2011averaged single-family homesduringthe12 Hanley Wood, LLC, pricesfornew entire submarket,basedondatafrom about $125,000to$150,000.For the Wyandotte Countytypically at start Newer homesalespricesinwestern building activity areas. insurrounding development hasledtoresidential $573million.Thecommercial of was completedin2006atacost which includestheKansasSpeedway, district, known asVillage West, A 400-acreretailandentertainment I-70andI-435. the interchange of Wyandotteis western County, near Another active areaforhomebuilding ranging from$300,000to$350,000. in general, much higher, typically

Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 12 Sales Market—KansasCountiesSubmarket Housing Market Trends analyst Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by Figure 13. 10.0 12.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 0

Submarket, 2000toCurrent Rental Vacancy RatesintheKansasCounties 2000 6.9 mand isexpected tobestrongest in thedemand.De­ of meet aportion units inthesubmarketarelikely to theestimated14,300other vacant of that partdemand. of In addition, some currently under construction will meet Table 1).Theapproximately 450units the KansasCountiessubmarket(see ment rentinthesubmarket(including Reis, Inc., theaverage effective­ apart to stronger demand.Accordingto growth inrenterhouseholdshasled has expanded inthepast2years, rentalhousing Although the supply of ever, from10.5percentayear ago. Figure 13).Thisrateisdown, how­ 8percent(see rental vacancy rateof rently somewhat soft, with an estimated Kansas Countiessubmarketiscur­ The rentalhousingmarketinthe Rental Market—KansasCountiesSubmarket Source: Estimatesbyanalyst ket willlikelysatisfysomeoftheforecastdemand. mand. Inaddition,aportionoftheestimated14,300othervacantunitsinsubmar Note: The450homescurrentlyunderconstructionwillsatisfysomeoftheestimatedde Table 6. Continued 2010 10.5

Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing in the Kansas Counties Submarket, April 1, 2011 to April 1, 2014 400,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 125,000 800,000 600,000 From Price Range($) Current 8.0 and higher 599,999 399,999 299,999 249,999 199,999 149,999 799,999 To - -

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the forecastperiod. new market-ratesaleshousingduring estimated demandbypricerange for $200,000 and $250,000. Table 6 shows forhomespricedbetweenbe greatest homes ayear. Demandisexpected to forecast period,averaging about4,000 the the secondandthirdyears of 12 months. Duringthe12months inthepast issued, hasfallensharply permits measured bythenumber of multifamily activity, construction as market conditionsinthesubmarket, Despite improved rentalhousing units. units, and$1,000forthree-bedroom bedroom units, $800fortwo-bedroom the submarketareabout$625forone- Currently, average monthly rentsin about$880amonth. an average of than 3percentfromayear earlier, to 2011were upbymore of quarter new units. ClassArentsinthefirst rateof ahighabsorption result of growth in3years, was partlythe of growth, whichwas thefastestrate This average effective rent apartment nearly 3percentfromayear earlier. 2011 was about$780,anincreaseof of concessions) inthefirstquarter Demand Units of 1,975 2,475 1,975 1,475 500 990 200 300 Percent of Total 10.0 20.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 - -

Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 13 Rental Market—KansasCountiesSubmarket Housing Market Trends Source: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Includes datathroughMarch2011. Notes: Includesallmultifamilyunitsinstructureswithtwoormoreunits. Figure 14. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 500 0

2000

Multifamily BuildingPermitsIssuedintheKansas Counties Submarket,2000to2011

2001

2002 Table 7. Source: Estimates by analyst Note: The 300 units currently under construction will satisfy some of the estimated demand. Monthly Gross Total 1,700 ormore 1,500 to1,699 1,300 to1,499 1,100 to1,299 900 to1,099 700 to899 2003 Rent ($)

2004 Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousing intheKansas Counties Submarket,April1,2011to2014 One Bedroom in thesubmarketsince2005hasbeen multifamily development percent of family buildingactivity, nearly 90 withsingle- (see Figure14).Asistrue averaged nearly 2,500unitsayear multifamily unitsin2000and2001 units ayear, of andconstruction issued,averagedpermits about1,100 submarket, basedonthenumber of multifamily inthe construction during the2005-through-2008period, data.Bycontrast, to preliminary the previous 12months, according during about 900unitspermitted in thesubmarketcomparedwith multifamily unitswere permitted ending March2011,fewer than80 remaining development hasbeenin in Johnson the County, whilemostof

2005 Continued

2006 Demand Units of 285 15 15 30 55 85 85 2007

2008 Monthly Gross Total 1,825 ormore 1,625 to1,824 1,425 to1,624 1,225 to1,424 1,025 to1,224 825 to1,024 2009 Rent ($)

Two Bedrooms 2010

2011 Demand Units of 365 110 110 20 20 35 70 construction orinthedevelopmentconstruction The roughly 300unitscurrently under Counties submarket(seeTable 1). 800 new rentalunitsin the Kansas 3 years, demandisexpected for renter householdsduringthenext With continued growth expected in range from$895to$925. and rentsfortwo-bedroom unitswill units willrange from$695to$725, 2012. Monthly rentsforone-bedroom is expected tobecompletedbyearly in southwest Johnson County, which rizon Trails inGardner Apartments is the under 168-unit construction Ho as . Oneprojectcurrently Wyandotte County, nearareassuch HMA duringtheforecastperiod. new market-raterentalhousinginthe estimated demandbyrentlevel for through early 2014.Table 7shows the forecast period,orduringmid-2012 the the secondandthirdyears of new rentalunitscomeonlineduring development shouldbetimedsothat is demandfornew construction, will needtobeabsorbedbeforethere approximately 2,000vacant units di­ Because rentalhousingmarketcon­ pipeline will meet part that of demand. tions remainsomewhat soft,and Monthly Gross Total 1,975 ormore 1,775 to1,974 1,575 to1,774 1,375 to1,574 1,175 to1,374 975 to1,174 Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) Demand Units of 165 10 10 15 30 50 50 -

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 14 Housing Market Trends Source: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Notes: Includesonly single-familyunits.Includes datathroughMarch2011. Figure 15. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 500 0

2000

Single-Family BuildingPermitsIssuedintheRemain ing MissouriCountiesSubmarket,2000to2011

2001

2002

Continued 2003

2004 are referred to as The Northland; an toasTheNorthland; are referred northJackson of County and, together, and Platte Counties, which are located thepopulationlive inClay percent of Within thissubmarket,roughly 60 KansasCity, suchasBelton. south of andGladstone,such asLiberty and KansasCity, well of assuburbsnorth KansasCity, Missouri,as of parts andsouthern the extreme northern Missouri Countiessubmarket,include HMA, which compose the Remaining the ing eightMissouricountiesof Excluding Jackson County, the re Submarket Sales Market—RemainingMissouriCounties sold duringthe12monthsending price forexisting single-family homes single-family homesales, theaverage Despite thedecreasingnumber of 14 percent,toabout325homessold. same periodbyabout50homes, or attached homesdeclinedduringthe existing previous 12months. Salesof 900homes, or13percent,fromthe of were soldinthesubmarket,adecline 5,900 existing single-family homes ending March2011,approximately Hanley Wood, LLC, inthe12months is currently soft.Basedondatafrom maining Missouri Counties submarket The saleshousingmarketintheRe­ Jackson County.which issouthof other 20 percent live in Cass County,

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 ­main 2011 -

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Hanley Wood, LLC, nearly 2,400 the pastyear. Basedondatafrom distressed homeloanshasdeclinedin with 5years ago, thepercentage of Counties submarketishighcompared closures intheRemaining Missouri homefore­ Although thevolume of about $1,100,to$113,600. 1 percentfromayear earlier, orby existing attachedhomes, however, fell about $167,500.Theaverage pricefor or 5percent,fromayear earlier, to March 2011was upbynearly $8,400, been The Northland and Cass County. for single-family homebuildinghave the submarket,mostactive areas homes ayear (seeFigure15).Within 2006 periodaveraged nearly 2,500 the submarket during the 2003-through- in contrast, single-family construction 12 months, a10-percentdecrease. By duringtheprevioushomes permitted in thesubmarketcomparedwith510 460 single-family homes were per months endingMarch2011,about data, duringthe12 on preliminary submarket inthepast4years. Based the Remaining MissouriCounties issued, hasdeclinedsignificantly in permits measured bythenumber of creasing, homebuildingactivity, as homesalesde ­ With thenumber of 5.5 percentayear earlier. loans inthesubmarket,down from alloutstandinghome 5.1 percentof foreclosure, orinREOrepresented loans 90ormoredays delinquent,in home in March2011,thenumber of from LPS Applied Analytics, however, 2005 and2006.Accordingtodata about400ayearaverage during of closed in2010comparedwithan homes inthesubmarketwere fore­ ­mitted

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 15 Sales Market—RemainingMissouriCountiesSubmarket Housing Market Trends an increase of nearly 1percent. Prices an increaseof $255,000 intheprevious 12months, months endingMarch2011,upfrom aged about$256,900duringthe12 family homesinthesubmarketaver Wood, LLC, pricesfornew single- $175,000. BasedondatafromHanley $150,000to typically intherange of Clay Countyaresomewhat higher, pricesfornew homesin starting about $125,000to$150,000;however, Platte Countiestypically range from single-family homesinCassand pricesfornew since 2003.Starting inthesubmarket homes permitted allsingle-family nearly 80percentof Combined, theseareasaccountedfor is down, however, from nearly 11 percent (seeFigure 16).Thisrate 8.4 estimated rentalvacancy rateof submarket iscurrently soft,withan Remaining MissouriCounties The rentalhousingmarketin the Submarket Rental Market—RemainingMissouriCounties Source: Estimatesbyanalyst will likelysatisfysomeoftheforecastdemand. mand. Inaddition,aportionoftheestimated9,800othervacant unitsinthesubmarket Note: The150homescurrentlyunderconstructionwillsatisfysome oftheestimatedde $135,900 to$126,000,orby7percent. during thesameperiod,fromabout for new attachedhomes declined Table 8.

Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing in to April 1, 2014 the Remaining Missouri Counties Submarket, April 1, 2011 800,000 600,000 400,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 125,000 From Continued Price Range($) and higher 799,999 599,999 399,999 299,999 249,999 199,999 149,999 To - Demand isexpected for to be greatest averaging about3,100homesayear. theforecastperiod, and thirdyears of is expected to be strongest in the second some mand. Because conditions are currently thede­ are likely of tomeetaportion other va­ theestimated9,800 addition, someof thatdemand.In of meet aportion will 150 unitsnow underconstruction market (see Table 1). The approximately the Remaining Missouri Counties sub 7,700 new market-ratesalesunitsin 3 years demandisexpected forabout household growth, duringthenext Based onprojectedpopulationand absorbed. Despite thelower vacancy allowed some excess supply tobe households hasincreased,which has renter 2 years, whilethenumber of rental unitshasslowed inthepast percent ayear ago. of Construction period. rate sales housing during the forecast demand by price range for new market- $200,000. Table 8 shows estimated homes pricedbetween $150,000and Demand Units of 1,125 1,500 1,875 1,500 ­what soft,demand fornew units 150 230 380 750 cant unitsinthesubmarket Percent of Total 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 20.0 2.0 3.0 5.0

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Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 16 Rental Market—RemainingMissouriCountiesSubmarket Housing Market Trends Source: U.S.CensusBureau,Building PermitsSurvey Includes datathroughMarch2011. Notes: Includesallmultifamilyunits instructureswithtwoormoreunits. Figure 16. analyst Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by Figure 17. 600 700 800 100 200 300 400 500 0 10.0 12.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 0 2000

Counties Submarket,2000toCurrent Rental Vacancy RatesintheRemainingMissouri Multifamily BuildingPermitsIssuedintheRemaining Missouri CountiesSubmarket,2000to2011

2001

2002 2000 7.4

2003

2004 2011, about75multifamily units were data, inthe12monthsendingMarch since 2008.Basedonpreliminary issued, hasdeclinedsignificantly permits measured bythenumber of activity,Multifamily construction as and $950forthree-bedroomunits. units, $750fortwo-bedroom units, average about$600forone-bedroom rently, monthly rentsinthesubmarket unchanged fromayear ago. Cur about $645,whichwas essentially 2011was of sions) inthefirstquarter in thesubmarket(includingconces the average effective rent apartment AccordingtoReis,mained flat. Inc., rate, rentsinthesubmarkethave re

2005 2010 2006 10.9

2007 Continued 2008

2009 Current 8.4

2010 - 2011 - - 263-unit Briarcliff CityApartments, 263-unit Briarcliff currently nearingcompletionisthe and CassCounties. Oneproject submarket have beeninClay, Platte, the Remaining MissouriCounties all multifamily in unitspermitted such asBelton;since2007,virtually KansasCity, and inareassouthof TheNorthland trated insuburbsof multifamily development isconcen most with single-family construction, 350 unitsayear (seeFigure17).As tion inthesubmarketaveraged about 2007 and2008,multifamily construc ous 12months. Bycontrast,during intheprevifrom 95unitspermitted inthesubmarket,downpermitted the HMAduringforecast period. new market-raterentalhousing in estimated demandbyrentlevel for through early 2014.Table 9shows forecast period,duringmid-2013 the on lineduringthethirdyear of timed sothatnew rentalunitscome new units. Development shouldbe 2 years, beforethereisdemandfor need tobeabsorbedduringthenext theexcess rental-unitsupply will of that demand. Some of meet part will currently underconstruction (see Table 1).Theroughly 50units is expected for300new rentalunits during thenext 3years, anddemand expected tocontinue inthesubmarket Growth inrenterhouseholdsis for two-bedroom units. $975 forone-bedroomunitsto$1,500 June 2011.Monthly rentsrange from 2010, isexpected tobecompletedby which beganpreleasinginOctober River, inClay County. Theproject, theMissouri Kansas City, of north which islocatedclosetodowntown

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- Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 17 Rental Market—RemainingMissouriCountiesSubmarket Housing Market Trends Data Profiles Table DP-1. Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrban Development;estimatesbyanalyst family incomesarefor1999,2009,and2011. Notes: Employmentdatarepresentannualaveragesfor2000,2010, andthe12monthsthroughMarch2011.Median Rental Vacancy Rate Owner Vacancy Rate Total HousingUnits Percent Renter Renter Households Percent Owner Owner Households Total Households Total Population Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Unemployment Rate Total ResidentEmployment Median FamilyIncome Kansas CityHMADataProfile, 2000toCurrent

Table 9. Source: Estimates by analyst Note: The 50 units currently under construction will satisfy some of the estimated demand. Monthly Gross Total 1,400 ormore 1,200 to1,399 1,000 to1,199 800 to999 600 to799 Rent ($)

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousingintheRemaining Missouri CountiesSubmarket,April1,2011to2014 One Bedroom 1,836,038 $55,183 767,573 228,218 489,543 717,761 980,500 966,316 31.8% 68.2% 2000 7.8% 1.6% 3.3% Demand Units of 100 10 10 20 30 30 Continued 2,035,334 $70,500 883,099 262,175 537,462 799,637 963,900 943,188 11.7% 32.8% 67.2% Monthly Gross 2010 Total 1,550 ormore 1,350 to1,549 1,150 to1,349 950 to1,149 750 to949 2.7% 9.1% Rent ($) Two Bedrooms 2,053,000 $72,300 889,500 266,500 538,800 805,300 963,600 943,800 Current 33.1% 66.9% Demand 9.3% 2.4% 9.0% Units of 135 15 15 25 40 40

2000 to2010 – 0.2 – 0.2 Monthly Gross Total 1,550 ormore 1,350 to1,549 1,150 to1,349 950 to1,149 Average AnnualChange(%) Three orMore Bedrooms 2.5 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 Rent ($)

2010 toCurrent Demand Units of – 0.1 1.3 0.7 1.6 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 60 10 10 20 20

Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 18 Data Profiles Sources: U.S.CensusBureau; DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesby analyst Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalyst Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalyst Table DP-4. Table DP-3. Table DP-2. Rental Vacancy Rate Owner Vacancy Rate Total HousingUnits Percent Renter Rental Households Percent Owner Owner Households Total Households Total Population Total Population Rental Vacancy Rate Owner Vacancy Rate Total HousingUnits Percent Renter Rental Households Percent Owner Owner Households Total Households Total Population Rental Vacancy Rate Owner Vacancy Rate Total HousingUnits Percent Renter Rental Households Percent Owner Owner Households Total Households

Continued Remaining MissouriCountiesSubmarketDataProfile, 2000toCurrent Kansas CountiesSubmarketDataProfile, 2000toCurrent Jackson County, MissouriSubmarketDataProfile, 2000to Current

288,231 167,461 266,294 654,880 181,504 124,681 170,502 440,794 297,838 197,401 280,965 740,364 98,833 45,821 83,564 2000 2000 2000 37.1% 62.9% 26.9% 73.1% 29.7% 70.3% 8.8% 1.7% 7.4% 1.8% 6.9% 1.3% 312,105 106,007 168,797 274,804 674,158 219,196 144,860 200,820 514,830 351,798 100,208 223,805 324,013 846,346 2010 2010 2010 55,960 13.3% 38.6% 61.4% 10.9% 27.9% 72.1% 10.5% 30.9% 69.1% 3.3% 2.6% 2.3% Current Current Current 313,800 107,600 168,000 275,600 676,900 221,100 146,100 202,800 521,500 354,600 102,200 224,700 326,900 854,400 56,700 11.0% 39.0% 61.0% 28.0% 72.0% 31.3% 68.7% 3.1% 8.4% 2.2% 8.0% 2.0%

2000 to2010 2000 to2010 2000 to2010 Average AnnualChange(%) Average AnnualChange(%) Average AnnualChange(%) 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3

2010 toCurrent 2010 toCurrent 2010 toCurrent – 0.5 0.8 2.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.3

Kansas City, M O - K S • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 19 KansasCityKS_11.pdf org/publications/pdf/CMARtables_ market forthisHMA,goto For tothe housing additionaldatapertaining building permits. single-family andmultifamily the discussionsof activity. theseestimatesare included in Someof thisadditional construction an estimateof the analyst, throughdiligent fieldwork, makes in theresidentialbuildingpermits. Asaresult, andarenotreflected as commercialstructures Forpermit. example, someunitsareclassified building orareissuedadifferenttypeof permit orcreatedwithoutabuilding are constructed activity thatoccursinanHMA.Someunits necessarily alltheresidentialbuilding reflect Building Permits: donot Buildingpermits specified as “other” vacant by the Census Bureau. workers;use; usedbymigrant andthecategory held forseasonal,recreational,oroccasional includes unitsrentedorsoldbutnotoccupied; available therefore forsaleorrent.Theterm vacant unitsincludeallvacant unitsthatarenot Other Vacant Units:InHUD’s analysis, other the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousing production the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis Analyst’s estimates Forecast period:4/1/2011–4/1/2014— date:4/1/2011—Analyst’sCurrent estimates 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. DecennialCensus 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. DecennialCensus Data DefinitionsandSources www.huduser.org/publications/econdev/mkt_analysis.html For on othermarketareas, additionalreports pleasego to . www.huduser.

The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport local housingmarketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis ful tobuilders, mortgagees, with andothers concerned findings,information, andconclusionsmay alsobeuse Development (HUD)initsoperations. Thefactual theU.S. HousingandUrban guidance of of Department This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeenprepared [email protected] 303–672–5005 HUDRegional Office James Conner, Economist Contact Information conditions. onlocaleconomicandhousing market and information state andlocalgovernment officials whoprovided data sources and expresses itsappreciation tothoseindustry may bemodifiedbysubsequentdevelopments. HUD national sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusions datefromlocaland availableinformation ontheas-of aspossiblebased on are asthoroughandcurrent and MarketAnalysis . Theanalysis andfindings guidelines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economic . -