16 AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005

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The expansion of urban consolidation in Sydney: Social impacts and implications

By Raymond Bunker, Darren Holloway and Bill Randolph About the authors Raymond Bunker is a visiting Associate Professor at the City Futures Research Centre, UNSW. Darren Holloway is a Senior Research Officer at the City Futures Research Centre, UNSW. Bill Randolph is the Director of the City Futures Research Centre, UNSW.

Introduction One of the main arguments for urban consolidation is that it improves for future urban consolidation in Sydney and the different kinds the range of housing choice open to households in terms of dwelling of densification proposed. The fifth discusses the planning type, tenure and location. This is seen as particularly important now implications of these proposals and the final one argues for a more that a much more diverse range of household types has developed over forceful injection of housing needs and social conditions into urban the past twenty or thirty years with demographic, cultural and lifestyle consolidation policy on the basis of the previous findings and suggests changes. However, this assumption has not been empirically tested the main themes that might inform them so that the outcomes are through analysis of the kinds of households living in various types optimal rather than regressive. of attached dwellings at different locations. This article explores the social impacts and associations of urban consolidation in this regard. Definitions Policies of urban consolidation in Sydney have had a somewhat Urban consolidation is here defined as the densification of residential uneven and episodic character (Searle, 1999, 2004a). The 1988 and areas through the building of attached dwellings and their use for 1994 strategy plans set a target for multi-unit housing of 65 per cent residential purposes. While there are other definitions, this variant of total housing and the compact city discourse remained central allows the empirical analysis of those living in privately occupied to all subsequent planning policies (Searle, 2004a). The building of attached dwellings through the use of customised Census data. In attached dwellings overtook separate houses in 1993/4 accounting doing so it necessarily overlooks households living in other, often for 55% of residential construction in 1998/99, up from 33% in institutionalised accommodation; unoccupied dwelling stock; or 1982/83 (Urban Frontiers Program, 2001). At the Census dates, the whether densification has halted or reversed population decline (Michell share of attached housing in the total dwelling stock has risen from and Wadley, 2004). The definition also excludes detached dwellings a low point of 30% in 1986 to 35% by 2001. The building of attached built on the same lot, as in dual occupancy. These are classified as dwellings in existing built-up areas is the major instrument for separate houses in Census practice. While most commentators would accommodating Sydney’s future population growth for the next regard such development as urban consolidation, it is at the lowest twenty-five to thirty years in the emerging metropolitan strategy. end of ‘medium density’ growth. Researchers have found this kind of The purpose of this article is firstly to establish the present development to be significant in localised areas of Melbourne (Buxton propensities of different kinds of households to live in the main types & Tieman 2004), but the exclusion of these separate houses does not of attached housing existing in 2001 in various parts of Sydney. This is materially affect the numbers used in or the argument of this paper. then broadened to take account of recent findings on the characteristics In the subsequent discussion, following Census practice, ‘attached and distribution of populations suffering social disadvantage. dwellings’ refer to any residence which is attached to another as From these trends it is argued that an enlarged role for urban opposed to a separate house. There are three main types. Semi- consolidation requires much more consideration of local circumstances, detached, row, terrace, villa and townhouse dwellings (hereinafter particularly with regard to the housing needs and social conditions referred to as semi-detached) are joined horizontally. Flats, units and of local communities living in attached housing. Without this, social apartments are joined vertically and horizontally, and constitute the dysfunction and disadvantage could be deepened and accentuated. other two types. Where these flats and units are built in complexes The discussion is in six parts, after some necessary definitions. of fewer than four storeys (usually not needing lifts), they are called The first examines the Sydney attached housing market and the sub- ‘low-rise’. Where they are arranged in structures of four storeys markets that can be defined and located in it, providing a description or more they are called ‘high-rise’, forming the final category. For of local housing conditions within a metropolitan overview. The the purposes of this paper, high-density means those high-rise second discusses localised studies of those living in areas of urban flats, and the two other kinds of attached dwellings are regarded consolidation, providing bottom-up supporting evidence for the sub- as medium-density. Table 1 shows the total dwelling stock in the markets defined in the first section. The third reviews recent work Statistical Division of Sydney in 1991 and 2001 including the other on social disadvantage in Sydney much of which is associated with dwelling types of separate houses, flats attached to a house, and attached housing. The fourth examines the magnitude of plans other dwellings such as caravans, houseboats and mobile homes. AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005 17

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Table 1: The number and proportion of different dwelling types in Sydney Statistical Division, 1991–2001

1991 Percentage 2001 Percentage Absolute Percentage Percentage of Occupied of Occupied Change Change Point Private Private 1991–2001 1991–2001 Change Dwellings Dwellings 1991–2001

Separate houses 823,721 67.5% 907,195 63.1% 83,474 10.1% -4.5%

Semi detached dwellings 106,697 8.7% 162,320 11.3% 55,623 52.1% 2.5%

Flat in a block of less than 4 storeys 174,634 14.3% 217,317 15.1% 42,683 24.4% 0.8%

Flat in a block of 4 or more storeys 82,839 6.8% 120,452 8.4% 37,613 45.4% 1.6%

Flat attached to a house 6,347 0.5% 5,749 0.4% -598 -9.4% -0.1%

Total higher density 370,517 30.3% 505,838 35.2% 135,321 36.5% 4.9%

Other dwellings 14,066 1.2% 11,896 0.8% -2,170 -15.4% -0.3%

Dwelling structure not stated 11,378 0.9% 13,465 0.9% 2,087 18.3% 0.0%

Total Occupied Private Dwellings 1,219,682 100.0% 1,438,394 100.0% 218,712 17.9% -

(source: ABS CDATA91 and CDATA2001)

Studies of the Sydney housing market the higher density market in order to provide a better understanding in attached dwellings of the social impacts of urban consolidation. Such sub-markets are formed by structural or spatial factors, or indeed both, and have important local representation (Maclennan & Tu 1996, Watkins Three recent studies have looked at the total 2001). The notion of spatially discontinuous housing sub-markets or Sydney market for attached dwellings. segments is a useful way of understanding the fragmented nature In a detailed analysis of the future demand for higher density housing, of real housing markets. Housing sub-markets defined by similar the Planning Research Centre at the University of Sydney found that price, amenity and design characteristics are usually distributed demand clearly varied by broad sub-region within Sydney although across a number of suburbs and locations rather than in homogenous no local analysis was carried out, and that there had been a growth in spatially integrated areas. This is particularly true of higher density the sector in middle and outer areas in more recent years (Hall, 1998). housing given its scattered nature across the housing stock as a Yates’s (2001) more conceptual analysis on the contribution result of its predominantly infill nature and zoning practices. of urban consolidation to housing affordability and choice in The method of defining and locating these housing sub-markets in Sydney and Melbourne concluded that income was the dominant this research was through factor analysis using special 2001 Census influence in determining household decisions about location, tabulations obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Factor dwelling type and tenure, and thus: “(W)hilst an increasing number analysis attempts to account for the variation in a number of variables (in of households have opted for higher density housing options, this case the socio-economic characteristics of the resident population) they have done so only when constrained by income in meeting using a smaller number of index variables or composite factors (Manly, their location and tenure preferences.” (Yates, 2001, p. 516). These 1994). Census Collectors’ Districts (CDs) with more than 80% of their findings strongly suggest that the policy frameworks of planners dwelling stock in the form of attached housing were selected and a and governments and, on the supply side the production decisions range of socio-economic variables from the 2001 Census of Population of developers, financiers and investors largely determine the and Housing subjected to factor analysis. The chosen variables are provision of dwelling stock under the rubric of urban consolidation listed in Table 3, which shows which of them were most strongly rather than the expressed preferences of households per se. correlated with each of the factors, either positively or negatively. These two studies necessarily employed coarse spatial The factor analysis generated six factors that explained 70% of the definitions and generalised household characteristics, and variance within the data set, listed in order of importance as shown in pointed to the need for increased understanding of the higher Table 2. Once the housing sub-markets had been located in this way, density housing market in Sydney by exploring the detailed detailed analysis was carried out of the top 33 CDs scoring in each factor, characteristics of housing demand existing in neighbourhoods using special cross-tabulations of the characteristics of households and localities, within the framework of the Sydney market. actually living in each of the three types of attached dwellings in them. Accordingly, recent research has focused on defining housing sub- A brief description follows of the housing sub-markets defined by markets in attached dwellings. The research design and results are the six factors resulting from the analysis, and from the supplementary more fully reported elsewhere (Bunker, Holloway & Randolph 2005), data. Figures 1 and 2 show some of the areas of Sydney in which the two but the approach offers a way of unpacking the spatial outcomes of strongest housing sub-markets articulated by Factors 1 and 2 are located. 18 AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005

Table 2: The percentage of variance explained by the six factors emanating from the factor analysis defining housing sub-markets in Sydney

Cumulative Percentage Percentage Factor Eigenvalue of Variance of Variance Explained Explained

1 3.558 17.79% 17.79%

2 3.022 15.11% 32.90%

3 2.281 11.41% 44.31%

4 1.827 9.13% 53.44%

5 1.816 9.08% 62.52%

6 1.425 7.12% 69.64%

Table 3: The correlation of socio-economic variables with each of the factors defining housing sub-markets in Sydney

Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5 Factor 6

Semi Detached Dwellings – – – – 0.9 –

Flats in a block under 4 storeys 0.5 – – – -0.5 0.3

Couples without Children -0.3 0.7 – – – –

One Parent Families 0.6 -0.3 – – – –

Aged 15–24 years – – – -0.9 – –

Aged 35–44 years – – 0.8 – – –

Age 65 years or more – – -0.8 0.4 – –

Weekly Household Income under $400 0.5 -0.6 -0.4 – – –

Associate Professionals -0.6 – – – – –

Tradespersons 0.7 – – – – 0.3

Advanced Clerical -0.3 0.4 – – – 0.4

Intermediate Clerical – -0.3 – – – 0.7

Labourers and Related Workers 0.8 – – – – –

Owner-Occupiers – 0.8 -0.3 – – –

Dwelling Being Purchased – 0.5 0.5 – 0.5 –

Rent from State Housing Authority – -0.7 -0.3 0.3 0.3 –

Rent from Other Sources – 0.5 -0.4 -0.6 –

Persons Separated or Divorced – -0.4 – 0.6 – 0.3

Persons Born Overseas 0.6 – – -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Weekly Rent over $400 -0.6 – – – – -0.5

Factor 1: suburban, low income, rental, migrant sub-market average for those living at the same address five years earlier. From Table 3, the main variables constituting Factor 1 can be There was a strong low-income profile with about a quarter of the assessed. This factor explained 18% of the variance within the data labour force unemployed and also containing a high proportion of set. In the selected CDs with high scores on this factor, the dwelling tradespersons, labourers and related workers. The population had a stock was dominated by low-rise flats (61%), followed by flats in mature age profile with a high proportion of single-parent families, a block of four or more storeys (19%) and semi-detached housing almost double the Sydney average, and lone-person households, (15%). People living in these CDs included a high proportion of but low percentages of couples with or without children. people born overseas, especially in South East Asia, although there 71% of dwellings were rented, mainly from private landlords in the were significant numbers from the Middle East and South Eastern form of low-rise flats and from public authorities. 36% of households did Europe. The population was relatively stable, achieving the Sydney not own a car. CDs with high scores on factor 1 are primarily located in AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005 19

Figure 1: Locations of CDs with high scores on Factor 1

Figure 2: Locations of CDs with high scores on Factor 2

the middle distance suburbs of western Sydney together with the inner sub-market is dominated by people with an Anglo-Celtic background, west and inner south of Sydney (Figure 1). The distribution of this housing many of mature age with high proportions of couples without sub-market, and the dominance of low-rise flats suggest that these kinds children, but there is also a substantial elderly population. They of people are renting in the many low-rise flats built in earlier years. are well-off, well-educated, with a higher occupational profile (74% are employers, administrators or professionals) or were retired. Factor 2: higher status, high amenity, home-owned sub-market A high rate of home-ownership (42% owned outright) and Factor 2 explained 15% of the variance within the data set. Some recent residence suggest a mature market with people looking 46% of the dwelling stock in the CDs which scored high on this for convenient locations in which to enjoy their lifestyle. The factor was in the form of flats in blocks of four storeys or more, 28% distribution of the CDs scoring highly in this factor is strongly as semi-detached dwellings and 17% as low-rise flats. This housing associated with areas of recent up-market apartments in accessible 20 AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005

central and waterfront locations such as at Olympic Park along the and locations indicate a relatively stable sub-market for people on Parramatta river (Figure 2). There was also a high incidence of car low or moderate incomes, intermediate skill occupations and many ownership with 77% of households having one or more cars. single-parent families or lone-person households. There is a very high proportion of public housing (61%), but this housing sub-market is Factor 3: generation X rental and home purchase sub-market differentiated from that delineated by Factor 4 by the dominant dwelling Factor 3 explained 11% of the variance within the data set. The CDs form, and differences in the demographic profile of the population. scoring highly on this factor had equal proportions of their dwelling This analysis strongly supports the conclusion that a number of stock in semi-detached or high-rise form at about 37%, with another distinct sub-markets can be identified in the higher density housing 22% in blocks of three or fewer storeys. High-rise housing is therefore stock in Sydney with distinguishing locational characteristics. These sub- less pronounced and semi-detached dwellings more important. This markets are differentiated by dwelling form (medium- or high-density) housing sub-market appears to be a variant of that depicted in Factor as well as tenure (two clusters are predominantly public housing, for 2, but much more associated with people at a younger stage in their example). At least one is clearly a sub-market associated with higher life cycle. It shows a younger population—two in five are aged 25 to income lifestyle aspirants in the new high-rise sector, while the cluster 34 years—of DINKS (double income households with no kids) and which explains the greatest proportion of variation is the dataset SINKS (single income households with no kids), with wider ethnic and closely associated with disadvantaged migrant populations living in cultural characteristics and more mobility (only 20% were resident lower cost rental accommodation in middle suburban locations. at the same address five years earlier). Half the households in these CDs rent from a private landlord and a quarter are home buyers Locations of the housing sub-market scoring highly on this factor Localised studies of people living in are not dissimilar to that of Factor 2, but Factor 3 includes a wider areas of urban consolidation scatter of areas in the middle suburbs such as around Parramatta. In 1990, Gooding prepared a report for the Western Regional Factor 4: higher density public housing sub-market Organisation of Councils, an organisation containing over a third Factor 4 explained 9% of the variance. Over half the dwelling stock was of Sydney’s population. He examined the kinds of people living in in the form of high-rise blocks and another 40% in blocks of three or areas of high urban consolidation at the 1981 and 1986 Censuses, fewer storeys. Households in this higher density segment are located in order to estimate their likely demand for human services. He in concentrations of older public housing and are associated with a concluded that compared with districts of separate houses, such sub-market of older working class character, mainly Australian in origin areas had a high proportion of single-person households; larger or from earlier post-war waves of immigration from southern Europe. proportions of people aged 20-29 years; more households renting; There are significant proportions of single adults—the factor’s loadings much higher rates of population change; a high proportion of people indicate a high association with divorced or separated persons – and born in non-English speaking countries, with many arriving in the of single-parent families, reflecting the role of public housing as a last five years; higher rates of unemployment; and less access to cars. welfare element. However, the population is generally stable, largely Notably, however, such areas had similar percentages of children retired (42% aged 65 or over), and of very low income. Geographically aged 0-4 years to localities dominated by separate houses. this factor is widely spread, but is closely associated with areas of high In 1999, the Urban Frontiers Program at the University of density public housing, particularly in central and eastern Sydney. Western Sydney began a study of the local impacts of urban consolidation policy in three councils to the south and south west Factor 5: the semi-detached sub-market of Sydney (Bunker et al., 2002). They were Hurstville, Sutherland Factor 5 explained 9% of the variance within the data set. Here, the and Campbelltown (Figure 1). Eight case study areas were selected defining feature was the dwelling stock, with 84% in the form of with different kinds and mixes of attached dwellings. The results semi-detached dwellings. Overall, the semi-detached sub-market indicated attached housing in these locations fulfilled a number is mixed socially and is not so dominated by one or more key of functions, with some areas satisfying more than one. characteristics as others. The predominant semi-detached form is The first was in accommodating migrants in the process of owned or being purchased by 40% of the households, while 30% establishing themselves in Australia. The second was in housing a is public housing and only 21% rented from private landlords. growing elderly population whose life experience had enabled them to There were two clear geographical components to this factor: an outer buy their own home and thus have the capital to move into dwellings suburban one associated with the 1970s public housing and an inner more suited to their changing needs. Overlapping and extending this city market associated with late Victorian terraced houses such as in function was one through which a locality offered a reasonable variety Paddington to the east of the city centre. This locational split explains of dwelling types and price structures so that a mature population the polarised nature of the social profile of this factor, incorporating ‘ageing in place’ had opportunities to move into medium-density both gentrified inner city areas and public housing in fringe estates. dwellings in an area in which they have lived for most of their lives. In effect, this sub-market can be split into the two different Fourthly, a significant number of young people, either as single-person kinds of households living in these areas. This is because households or couples, were living in attached housing, often renting but the socio-economic variables in the Census data have little there was also some evidence of home purchase. Finally, some attached information on the price or cost of housing. While such data dwelling stock provided cheaper rental housing accommodating usually dominates housing market analysis, the approach here is households in difficulty. They included low-income households (often to define the different kinds of demand for attached housing. single-parent families), or those not easily able to find employment. The second and third of these roles involved more owner- Factor 6; medium density public rental sub-market occupation than the first, fourth and fifth, which were typically Factor 6 explained 7% of the variance within the data set. Some 60% of associated with accommodation rented from private landlords. the dwelling stock was in the form of low-rise flats, 19% as high-rise flats Many councils, of course, carry out this kind of population and 18% in semi-detached configuration. The population characteristics analysis and it is important to translate them into the main types AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005 21

of households present and their needs in terms of shelter. component is given a double weighting in the calculation of the To sum up, it is now possible to marry the system-wide analyses Index. Again, aspatial analysis of tenure-based social disadvantage discussed in the previous section with their strong conceptual has not found that renting public housing is dominant among and methodological bases, with the more localised, inductive and low income households as it is in the United Kingdom, and social empirical studies from this part of the article. For example the disadvantage was not tenure specific (Winter & Stone, 1998). analysis of housing sub-markets throughout Sydney can then be used Accordingly, areas of social disadvantage have been investigated as a basis for more detailed characterisation in selected localities as to whether they contained low, moderate or high proportions (Bunker, Holloway & Randolph, 2005), and examination as to how they of public housing (Randolph & Holloway, 2005b), and also at the function in a Sydney-wide context (or specified sub-region of it). more detailed local scale represented in CD data. CDs with less than the Sydney-wide average of 4.8% of households renting from a public landlord were defined as low: those between the Spatial polarisation of social disadvantage in Sydney average and 20% as moderate; and those with more than 20% as high. While it is undoubtedly true that areas with high public Recent research on social disadvantage in Sydney and Melbourne has housing are closely associated with areas of severe disadvantage, revealed “how the socio-spatial structure of the city has polarized over 36% of CDs with severe disadvantage had low proportions of the past 30 years or so to the disadvantage of the middle suburbs” public housing, and another 26% only moderate proportions. (Randolph & Holloway, 2005a: 53). Figure 3 shows the distribution of Figure 4 shows CDs with severe disadvantage by proportion of disadvantage across Sydney in 2001 at the suburb level using the ABS public housing in Sydney in 2001. The concentrations of disadvantage Index of Socio-Economic Disadvantage which provides a composite in areas of high public housing are obvious. They appear in score for all CDs: the lower the score, the more disadvantaged Blacktown in the west, Green Valley in Liverpool and Villawood on the population, around the national mean of 1000. Much of this the Fairfield-Bankstown border, large estates in Campbelltown, disadvantaged population is now concentrated in the immediate and small pockets around the central city and eastern suburbs. post-war suburbs to the west. They lie between expensive and largely But there are also substantial areas of severely disadvantaged gentrified inner suburbs, and outer suburban and fringe locations people in private housing with three large concentrations centred which have increasingly become the focus of ‘aspirational households’ on Fairfield and Liverpool, Auburn and Canterbury/Bankstown, with two incomes able to afford large new or modern dwellings as well as significant outlying areas to the west in Penrith. (characterised as MacMansions). In addition to these middle suburbs, Further, comparable analyses in 1996 show trends in the Figure 3 shows concentrations of disadvantaged people in the peripheral characteristics of social polarisation. In both Sydney and public housing estates built a generation ago in the western and south- Melbourne the areas with the most change in the number of western corridors of development planned at that time (SPA, 1968). disadvantaged CDs are predominantly those with low levels of However, the Index could be criticised in that while it includes public housing so that the shift of disadvantage is largely occurring the proportion of households renting from a public landlord, it has in the private housing market (Randolph & Holloway 2005b). no other housing related indicators. Further this public housing

Figure 3: ABS Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage, Sydney Urban Suburbs 2001 22 AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005

Figure 4: Census Collectors Districts with Severe Disadvantage by Proportion of Public Housing, Sydney, 2001

The role of attached housing in the new renewal and redevelopment processes must be almost entirely Sydney metropolitan strategy in the form of attached dwellings either as new construction or conversion in the two built-up central districts shown in Figure 5. It is apparent that the building of attached dwellings will be the main While these anticipated distributions must be viewed to some way of providing for future population and household growth in extent in indicative terms, they already reflect such factors Sydney. The discussion paper introducing the issues to inform the new as the fierce opposition attending urban consolidation in the metropolitan strategy argues for a “different mix of dwellings—more north and “where the amount of land conserved as parkland flats, units and villas—than previously needed” (DIPNR, 2004a:6). Further has a significant impact” as the Minister commented in the papers released just before Christmas 2004 estimate that an additional statement accompanying these figures (Goodsir, 2004). 640,000 new homes will be required to accommodate Sydney’s growth in the next three decades or so. Around 222,000 new homes will be built in ‘greenfields’ sites through land releases for this purpose but Some planning implications of these proposals some 418,000 will have to be found in the existing urban fabric. The draft strategy discusses this population and dwelling growth as Given the much expanded role given to urban consolidation in taking place in three different ways. They are not quite the same as those existing suburbs, it is important to note some of the general planning used in Melbourne where they have been defined as redevelopment implications of this before going on to consider possible social and residential use of identified sites; market-led redevelopment of consequences. While the broad targets discussed are useful in scoping existing houses and building conversions under ResCode throughout the problem, there does not seem to be much awareness of the capacity the existing urban area; and increased urban densities in the process of local areas to absorb such increases, apart from acknowledgement of conversion from rural or quasi-rural use to urban development of the special character of the political and built environment in the at the fringe (Buxton & Tieman, 2004). In Sydney, ‘greenfields’ northern sector. While there is an admission that “some suburbs have development would be similar to the last of them, but the other two done enough … and (can) set limits on the extent of consolidation of situations are defined as the filling up and infill of existing suburbs; suburban streets” (DIPNR 2004c) this provision applies only if they and renewal and redevelopment processes in older areas of Sydney. can demonstrate “that the regional share of growth is being met”, These last two situations overlap and interpenetrate and the and that they have adequate provision for aged persons’ housing. draft strategy clarifies this point in spatial terms by identifying six We now concentrate on those situations where renewal and broad sub-regional markets shown in Figure 5 with their share of redevelopment is envisaged so that growth in the housing stock the anticipated increase of 418,000 dwellings in the next twenty- is assumed to be entirely in the form of attached dwellings. In five to thirty years (DIPNR, 2004c). There is no specification as to the this discussion we draw on general points made by Troy (1996) dwelling types likely to predominate in greenfields development, and Searle (2004b) and observations from the analysis of urban infill, and redevelopment. But separate houses are still likely to consolidation processes in Campbelltown, Sutherland and Hurstville be the most prevalent type built in the land releases in the north- in the south and south-west of Sydney (Bunker et al, 2002). west and south-west announced by the Minister on 9 December First, many of the easier and most effective sites for urban 2004 (DIPNR, 2004b). There will be a mix of separate and attached consolidation, particularly in reusing redundant industrial, commercial dwellings in filling up and infill processes in existing suburbs, and or communications facilities and premises, have already been exploited. AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005 23

Table 4: The projected increase in attached dwellings over the next 25-30 years in the West Central and East Central subregions of Sydney

East Central West Central

Total Dwellings 1991 427,278 197,449

Number of Attached Dwellings 1991 225,909 37,806

Proportion of Attached Dwellings 1991 52.9% 19.1%

Total Dwellings 2001 485,029 221,864

Number of Attached Dwellings 2001 280,038 59,415

Proportion of Attached Dwellings 2001 57.7% 26.8%

Change in the number of attached dwellings 1991-2001 54,129 21,609

Average number of attached dwellings added to the housing stock each year between 1991 and 2001 5,413 2,161

Estimated extra number of attached dwellings to be built in the next 25–30 years 133,760 87,780

Total number of attached dwellings in the next 25–30 years 413,798 147,195

Percentage increase in attached dwellings in the next 25–30 years time 48% 148%

Note: Total Dwelling Numbers exclude caravans, houseboats, and other improvised dwellings Source: a) ABS CDATA2001. b) Extra number of attached dwellings to be built—derived from DIPNR Media Release, Keeping Communities in a Growing City, 13 December, 2004.

Figure 5: Allocation of future dwelling growth in the these has been devised, possibly because of the considerable effort next 25–30 years to the sub-regions of Sydney needed to formulate and administer them (Buxton & Tieman, 2004). All this means that outside the high-rise towers of central Sydney and regional centres, there are diminishing returns to be obtained from continuing urban consolidation in renewal and redevelopment. The magnitude of the urban consolidation task in achieving these regional targets can be illustrated by reference to the two central districts identified by DIPNR. Over half the increase in dwelling stock is envisaged to take place in these regions. Table 4 shows the impact of the projected net increases on these regions, meaning that many more have to be built because of demolitions. The anticipated number of extra dwellings needed in the planning period has been derived from the proportions allocated to each region in Figure 5 and are, of course only preliminary estimates. But they indicate about a quarter of a million attached dwellings will be added to these built-up areas in the next quarter-century. Source: DIPNR Media Release, Keeping Communities in a Growing City, 13 December, 2004. The east central region includes the central city and inner suburbs and 58% of its dwelling stock is already in the form of attached housing. But the magnitude of change in the west central region is also dramatic. They are also the most successful in adding population. Second, The broad outlines of future dwelling provision outlined above increasing the number of dwellings can necessitate growth in other are supplemented by a proposal that the present multiplicity of related but non-residential land uses (McLoughlin, 1991). One of the residential zones be collapsed into two—‘Lower Density’ and ‘Higher most important of these is open space, which is usually at a premium Density’, which will widen the potential for urban consolidation. in older areas because of the crowded conditions existing when they The former zone will allow for a mixture of dwelling forms including were originally developed, and the better standards now expected. detached houses, and multiple dwellings such as town houses, Third, redeveloping older medium-density residential areas means terraces and villa homes. The higher density zone is for multi-unit that dwellings are lost by demolition before new ones (often of larger and residential flat development (DIPNR 2004d). These widened size) are constructed so that the net gain is often much less than development horizons provide new realms for urban consolidation. anticipated (Lewis 1999). Fourth, infrastructure renewal or augmentation At first sight, this situation would appear to provide opportunities is often required despite assumptions that excess capacity will be for more sensitive processes of urban consolidation to meet the taken up with increased dwellings and (sometimes) population. In housing needs of a wide range of household types. It is difficult particular stormwater disposal from increased runoff accompanying to believe, however, that this outcome can be achieved by such consolidation is a common issue (Troy, 1996). Finally, important issues blunt planning measures as housing targets, permissive zoning and of heritage and character arise in redeveloping older residential areas rating on unimproved capital value to achieve ‘highest and best use’ and often severely circumscribe potential capacities for increasing through the operation of the market. These instruments on their density. Melbourne has its Neighbourhood Character Overlay to allow own can only bring about disconnected and ad hoc change, and need local variations from ResCode, although it is reported only one of supplementary measures and incentives to achieve reasonable results. 24 AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005

Social implications of increasing urban consolidation Suitable provision for overseas migrants from different ethnic and cultural backgrounds is a strong imperative identified in the housing From this account it appears that much work is needed if Sydney sub-market analysis. The identification of local opportunities of is to become a more compact city through redevelopment and these different kinds would also be of help to developers, enabling densification so that the outcomes are optimal rather than regressive. them to expand and better ground their feasibility studies. There are already signs that urban consolidation is likely to be Second in some areas of renewal and redevelopment, comprehensive concentrated in areas of existing social disadvantage, where “smart policies regarding planning, housing, social services, infrastructure growth policies may exacerbate the processes of spatial inequality” provision and urban design are needed. To illustrate this issue it (Healey & Birrell 2004, p. 19). Two points are made in conclusion. is only necessary to point to the emerging failure of the housing First, there needs to be much more sensitivity to local circumstances market in the ageing middle suburbs to the west of the city centre and housing needs in planning for future medium- and high-density built in the immediate postwar years and located largely in Auburn, development. The test of the planning approach which sets targets Bankstown, Canterbury, Fairfield, Holroyd, Liverpool and Parramatta for increases in the dwelling stock in established areas through the (Randolph, 2002). Much of the original housing stock built then is building of attached housing is whether and how it can be implemented. now largely run-down and obsolescent in terms of materials and It is reported the Property Council of Australia has already raised this amenities. Some of this has been redeveloped in the form of multi- concern (Goodsir, 2005). It seems that the metropolitan strategy will unit dwellings, but the quality of redevelopment is limited by the concentrate much of the necessary renewal along transport corridors difficulties of assembling sites in subdivision patterns established for such as main roads with good bus services, and around centres of separate houses and by the low income nature of demand. The result varying size with higher densities arranged around larger centres. has been ad hoc and characterised by mechanistic and circumscribed Much of the necessary local analysis seems based on estimates of designs with disruptive impacts on local character and amenity. physical capacity, and acknowledges that some councils may have These negative influences are compounded by the population already made substantial contributions in this regard. However characteristics of these areas. There have been substantial out- the findings of the research reported in this article show that migration of the more aspirational and affluent households, leaving housing needs and social conditions should inform the setting a residual and ageing population. Such middle suburbs contain of targets and selection of locations for intensive renewal. For much of Sydney’s population classified as suffering severe social example, where ambitious targets and zoning changes extrapolate disadvantage. Further, only about a quarter of these live in areas with and enlarge concentrations of existing housing sub-markets significant levels of public housing (Randolph & Holloway 2005b). formed by households in difficult circumstances, this can only However, these areas are now expected to accommodate exacerbate social problems and build the slums of the future. many thousands of new higher density dwellings—and largely Conversely, some of the housing sub-markets identified make up the west central region identified previously. But such here, reflect secular social trends where appropriate locations, areas require more than broad planning imperatives specifying residential environments and dwelling types can be provided increased levels of urban consolidation. Innovative taxation and for potential sub-markets. The elderly form one such growing investment incentives are required to help the market in better group, and have varied dwelling requirements reflecting their providing what it already does and more effectively targeting financial circumstances, life experience and health. profiles of demand and need. Help is needed in reconfiguring Similarly there are growing sub-markets of transient young or old subdivision patterns. New forms of local governance may be middle-aged adults, either living on their own or in partnership. Those needed and new processes of state, federal and local interaction seeking basic rental housing, because of their inability to afford more to enable the provision of government services appropriate to suitable accommodation for their needs form another constituency. existing and new populations (Randolph 2002, 2004, Totaro 2005). AustralianPlanner / vol 42 / no 3 / 09.2005 25

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