Notes

Introduction

1. While some Arab states claim the waterway should be referred to as the “Arabian Gulf,” the name “Persian Gulf” has been consistently upheld by the International Hydrographic Organization and the various arms of the United Nations; so, this is the term used throughout this book for the most part. 2. For instance, see Robert Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy: Containment after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000); Jeffrey Fields, “Adversaries and Statecraft: Explaining US Foreign Policy towards Rogue States,” PhD thesis, University of Southern California, 2007; Tim Niblock, Pariah States and Sanctions in the : , Libya, Sudan (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2001). 3. For example, see Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of , , and the United States (New Haven, CT: Press, 2007); and , The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2007); Sasan Fayazmanesh, The United States and Iran: Sanctions, Wars and the Policy of (Abingdon: Routledge, 2008); Hossein Alikhani, Sanctioning Iran: Anatomy of a Failed Policy (: I. B. Tauris, 2000). Gerges takes a different tack to all of the above, in that his analysis is focused on American policy toward the various Islamist movements on the rise in the Middle East in the 1980s and 1990s, in order to examine the basis of US foreign policy when it comes to Islamist groups and states like Iran. See Fawaz Gerges, America and Political Islam: Clash of Cultures or Clash of Interests? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999). 4. Derek Chollet and James Goldgeier, America between the Wars: From 11/9 to 9/11: The Misunderstood Years between the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the Start of the War on Terror (New York: Public Affairs, 2008). 5. Rosemary Hollis, “The US Role: Helpful or Harmful?,” in Lawrence Potter and Gary Sick (eds.), Iran, Iraq and the Legacies of War (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), p. 209. 6. For instance, see Richard Haass, “Paradigm Lost,” 74, no. 1 (1995): 43–58. 156 NOTES

7. Nicholas Kitchen, “American Power: For What? Ideas, Unipolarity and America’s Search for Purpose between the ‘Wars’ 1991–2001,” PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2009. 8. Chollet and Goldgeier, America between the Wars. Entries included “The Muddle Ages” and the “Cold War Lite Era.” Sarah Boxer, “Words for an Era: No Time Like the Present to Leave Something for Posterity,” New York Times, April 2, 1995. 9. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, Dynamics of Change in the Persian Gulf: Political Economy, War and Revolution (Abingdon: Routledge, 2013), p. 33. 10. F. Gregory Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), p. 88. 11. Stephen Walt, “Two Cheers for Clinton’s Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs 79, no. 2 (2000): 79. 12. The term was coined by Gideon Rose in 1998, who provides a useful intro- duction to the theory. See Gideon Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy,” World Politics 51, no. 1 (1998): 144–72. 13. In particular, see Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill, 1979). 14. This term was coined by Stephen Krasner in “Structural Causes and Regime Consequences: Regimes as Intervening Variables,” International Organization 36, no. 2 (1982): 185–205. 15. In terms of the former, for instance, see Aaron Friedberg’s The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline 1895–1905 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988) and William Wohlforth’s The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993). In terms of the latter, examples include Randall Schweller’s Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006). 16. Harald Müller and Thomas Risse-Kappen, “From the Outside in and from the inside out: International Relations, Domestic Politics, and Foreign Policy,” in David Skidmore and Valerie Hudson (eds.) The Limits of State Autonomy: Societal Groups and Foreign Policy Formulation (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993), p. 31. 17. Thomas Risse-Kappen, “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies,” World Politics 43, no. 4 (1991): 479–512. 18. Ibid., p. 484. 19. Peter Gourevitch, “The Second Image Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics,” International Organization 32, no. 4 (1978): 881–912. 20. Risse-Kappen, “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure,” p. 485. 21. Ibid. 22. Ibid., p. 484. 23. Müller and Risse-Kappen, “From the Outside In and from the Inside Out,” p. 34. 24. Risse-Kappen, “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure,” pp. 490–491. 25. Ibid. NOTES 157

26. Stephen Krasner, Power, the State, and Sovereignty: Essays on International Relations (Abingdon: Routledge, 2009), p. 37. 27. Ibid., p. 42. 28. Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy,” p. 161. 29. Jeffrey Taliaferro, “State Building for Future Wars Neoclassical Realism and the Resource-Extractive State,” Security Studies 15, no. 3 (2006): 464–95. For another example, see Thomas Christensen, Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947–1958 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); , From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998). 30. Steven Lobell, “Threat Assessment, the State, and Foreign Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Model,” in Steven Lobell, Norrin Ripsman, and Jeffrey Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 42–74. 31. Norrin Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism and Domestic Interest Groups,” in Lobell, Ripsman and Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, pp. 170–93. 32. Norrin Ripsman, Peacemaking by Democracies: The Effect of State Autonomy on the Post-World-War Settlements (University Park: Penn State University Press, 2002). 33. Discussed by Risse-Kappen in “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure,” p. 486. Also considered by Schweller in Unanswered Threats. 34. Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism and Domestic Interest Groups,” p. 171. 35. Risse-Kappen, “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure,” p. 485. 36. Parsi, Treacherous Alliance. 37. The most high-profile, and probably most controversial, being Walt and Mearsheimer, The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy. 38. Edwin S. Corwin, The President: Office and Powers 1787–1957: History and Analysis of Practice and Opinion, 4th edition (New York: New York University Press, 1964), p. 171. 39. Alexander George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005), p. 214. 40. Ibid., p. 206. 41. Ibid., p. 211, italics in original text.

2 US Foreign Policy in the Persian Gulf, 1945–91

1. For example, see Fred Halliday, “The Middle East, the Great Powers and the Cold War,” in Yezid Sayigh and Avi Shlaim (eds.), The Cold War and the Middle East (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1997), and The Middle East in International Relations: Power, Politics and Ideology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), pp. 123–29. 158 NOTES

2. Alan Dobson and Steve Marsh, U.S. Foreign Policy since 1945, 2nd edition (London: Routledge, 2006), p. 119. 3. Michael Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf: A History of America’s Expanding Role in the Persian Gulf, 1833–1992 (New York: Free Press, 1992), p. 35. 4. Alan Taylor, The Superpowers and the Middle East (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 1991), p. 49. 5. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” http://www.bp.com/content/dam /bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf, accessed June 23, 2014. 6. Shibley Telhami, The Stakes: America and the Middle East, the Consequences of Power and the Choice for Peace (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2002), pp. 140–43. 7. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power (New York: Free Press, 1991), p. 395. 8. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, pp. 41–42, 44–45. 9. Yergin, Prize, p. 427. 10. Ibid., p. 456. 11. David Commins, The Gulf States: A Modern History (London: I. B. Tauris, 2012), p. 168; Yergin, Prize, pp. 567–68. 12. Yergin, Prize, p. 393. 13. Ibid., p. 500. 14. Ibid., pp. 484–85. 15. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, pp. 24, 28. 16. See Tim Niblock’s Saudi Arabia: Power, Legitimacy and Survival (Abingdon: Routledge, 2006). 17. Richard Falk, “U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East: The Tragedy of Persistence,” in Hooshang Amirahmadi (ed.), The United States and the Middle East: A Search for New Perspectives (Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 1993), p. 70. 18. Richard Cottam, “U.S. Policy in the Middle East,” in Hooshang Amirahmadi (ed.), The United States and the Middle East, p. 41; Lawrence Freedman, A Choice of Enemies: America Confronts the Middle East (London: Wiedenfield and Nicolson, 2008), p. 20. 19. Naef Bin Ahmed Al-Saud, “Underpinning Saudi National Security Strategy,” Joint Force Quarterly, no. 32 (2002): 125–26. 20. Mark Sedgewick, “Britain and the Middle East: In Pursuit of Eternal Interests,” in Jack Covarrubias and Tom Lansford (eds.), Strategic Interests in the Middle East: Opposition or Support for US Foreign Policy (London: Ashgate, 2007), pp. 5–6. 21. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, p. 39. 22. Steve Yetiv, Crude Awakenings: Global Oil Security and American Foreign Policy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004), p. 61. 23. Taylor, Superpowers and the Middle East, p. 30. 24. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, p. 63. 25. Marc O’Reilly, Unexceptional: America’s Empire in the Persian Gulf, 1941– 2007 (Plymouth: Lexington Books, 2008), p. 78. NOTES 159

26. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, pp. 73–74. 27. Taylor, Superpowers and the Middle East, p. 27. 28. Douglas Little, American Orientalism: The United States and the Middle East since 1945, 3rd edition (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2008), pp. 139–40. 29. F. Gregory Gause, “British and American Policies in the Persian Gulf 1968–73,” Review of International Studies 11, no. 4 (1985): 259. 30. John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982), p. 304. 31. In contrast to the rulers of Oman, , and what is now the United Arab Emirates, the rulers of Iran and Saudi Arabia were eager to see British forces depart. See Gause, “British and American Policies in the Persian Gulf,” pp. 255–57; and Yergin, Prize, pp. 565–66. 32. Alexei Vassiliev, The History of Saudi Arabia (London: Saqi Books, 2000), pp. 324–25. 33. O’Reilly, Unexceptional, pp. 46, 48–49. 34. Steve Yetiv, The Absence of Grand Strategy: The United States and the Persian Gulf, 1972–2005 (Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press, 2008), p. 28. 35. Niblock, Saudi Arabia, p. 37. 36. Rachel Bronson, Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 58. 37. Jeffrey R. Macris, The Politics and Security of the Gulf: Anglo-American Hegemony and the Shaping of a Region (New York: Routledge, 2010), pp. 145–46. 38. Fred Halliday, Arabia without Sultans (London: Saqi Books, 2002), pp. 58, 67. 39. Vassiliev, History of Saudi Arabia, p. 372. 40. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, p. 88. 41. Total Saudi defense expenditure was almost $83 billion between 1969–81 (in 1984 US$), Anthony Cordesman, The Gulf and the Search for Strategic Stability: Saudi Arabia, the Military Balance in the Gulf, and Trends in the Arab-Israeli Military Balance (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1984), p. 160, fig. 5.4. 42. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, pp. 91–92; Cordesman, The Gulf and the Search for Strategic Stability, p. 159. 43. C. Paul Bradley, Recent US Policy in the Persian Gulf (Grantham, NH: Thompson and Rutter, 1982), pp. 45–46. 44. Vassiliev, History of Saudi Arabia, pp. 398–99. 45. Shireen Hunter, Iran and the World: Continuity in a Revolutionary Decade (Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1990), p. 88. 46. Steve Yetiv, America and the Persian Gulf: The Third-Party Dimension in World Politics (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995), p. 82; Yetiv, Crude Awakenings, p. 79. 160 NOTES

47. Donette Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran: American-Iranian Relations since the Islamic Revolution (Abingdon: Routledge, 2010), pp. 1–2. 48. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, pp. 37–38. 49. “Title III, Section 301, Mutual Defense Assistance Act of 1949,” The American Journal of International Law 44, no. 1, Official Documents Supplement (1950): 31. 50. For a comprehensive account of the whole affair, see James Bill, The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy of American-Iranian Relations (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1988), pp. 72–97. 51. Ibid., pp. 72–75; Little, American Orientalism, pp. 56–57. 52. Little, American Orientalism, pp. 216–17; Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, pp. 67–70; Yergin, Prize, p. 468. 53. Yergin, Prize, pp. 470–71. 54. Ibid., pp. 625–26; Yetiv, Crude Awakenings, p. 63; Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), pp. 99, 106–7. 55. Bill, Eagle and the Lion, p. 202. 56. Ibid., p. 200. 57. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, p. 96. 58. Bradley, Recent US Policy in the Persian Gulf, pp. 34–35. 59. Ibid., p. 35. 60. Ibid., p. 40. 61. Commins, Gulf States, p. 205. 62. Bill, Eagle and the Lion, p. 254. 63. Phebe Marr, The Modern History of Iraq, 2nd edition (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2004), p. 107; Charles Tripp, A History of Iraq, 3rd edition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 158. 64. Marr, Modern History of Iraq, p. 108. 65. Ibid., p. 147. 66. Ibid., p. 148. 67. Tripp, History of Iraq, pp. 201–3. 68. Marr, Modern History of Iraq, p. 168. 69. Tripp, History of Iraq, p. 182. 70. Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, pp. 51–53; Dilip Hiro, Iran Today (London: Politico’s, 2005), p. 254. 71. For a full account, see chapter 4 of James Blight et al., Becoming Enemies: US-Iran Relations and the Iran-Iraq War, 1979–1988 (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2012). 72. Yetiv, Crude Awakenings, p. 42; and Absence of Grand Strategy, p. 77. 73. Macris, Politics and Security of the Gulf, p. 212. 74. A transcript and video of the January 23, 1980, State of the Union address is available on the website of the University of Virginia’s Miller Centre Public Affairs, http://millercenter.org/scripps/archive/speeches/detail/3404, accessed March 11, 2010. 75. For a description of the RDJTF and its mission, as envisaged at the time, see Paul K. Davis, “Observations on the Rapid Deployment Joint Task NOTES 161

Force: Origins, Direction and Mission,” RAND Corporation paper no. P-6751, June 1982, http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P6751/P6751.pdf, accessed March 11, 2010. 76. Bradley, Recent US Policy in the Persian Gulf, pp. 98–99. 77. Macris, Politics and Security of the Gulf, p. 208. 78. Bradley, Recent US Policy in the Persian Gulf, pp. 100–102. 79. Yetiv, Crude Awakenings, p. 66; Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, p. 118. 80. Martin S. Navias and E. R. Hooton, Tanker Wars: The Assault on Merchant Shipping during the Iran-Iraq Conflict, 1980–1988 (London: I. B. Tauris, 1996), Chapter 4. 81. Macris, Politics and Security of the Gulf, p. 213. 82. Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf, p. 119. 83. See Chapter 7 of Palmer’s Guardians of the Gulf for a detailed account. 84. Ali Ansari, Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Roots of Mistrust (London: Hurst, 2006), p. 115. 85. Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, p. 82; Freedman, Choice of Enemies, pp. 220–21; author’s interview with Ambassador Chas Freeman, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Washington, DC, February 2012. 86. Kazem Sajjadpour, “Neutral Statements, Committed Practice: The USSR and the War,” in Farhang Rajaee (ed.), Iranian Perspectives on the Iran-Iraq War (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1997), pp. 33–34; Hiro, Iran Today, p. 220. 87. Freedman, Choice of Enemies, p. 104.

3 The Balance of Power in the Persian Gulf, 1945–91

1. The term “tripolar” is used here rather than “triangular” because it better captures the balance of power aspect but the meaning is largely the same. The term “triangular” is used by Gregory Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010); Henner Fürtig, “Conflict and Cooperation in the Persian Gulf: The Interregional Order and US Policy,” Middle East Journal 61, no. 4 (2007): 627–40; Matteo Legrenzi, The GCC and the International Relations of the Persian Gulf: Diplomacy, Security and Economic Coordination in a Changing Middle East (London: I. B. Tauris, 2011). The term “scalene” is taken from Legrenzi. 2. Roughly speaking, Hans Morgenthau argued that the bases of national power are “geography,” “natural resources,” “industrial capacity,” “military preparedness,” “population,” “national morale,” “the quality of diplomacy,” and “the quality of government.” He also distinguishes between those that are relatively stable and those subject to change. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 3rd edition (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1960), Chapter 9. This analysis focuses for the most part on the bases he identifies as most stable—geography, population, and natural resources. 3. For instance, Legrenzi, GCC and the International Relations of the Gulf, p. 75. 162 NOTES

4. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), “The World Factbook,” https://www .cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html, accessed November 10, 2009. 5. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division, The World at Six Billion, http://www.un.org/esa/population /pub lications/sixbillion/sixbilpart2.pdf, accessed November 10, 2009. 6. Ibid. 7. CIA, “World Factbook.” 8. UN DESA, World at Six Billion. 9. Data retrieved from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, 2013, http://esa .un.org/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm, accessed September 20, 2014. 10. Legrenzi, GCC and the International Relations of the Gulf, p. 75. 11. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” http://www.bp.com/content/dam /bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf, accessed June 23, 2014. 12. Henner Fürtig, Iran’s Rivalry with Saudi Arabia between the Gulf Wars (Reading: Ithaca Press, 2002), p. 150. 13. Fürtig, “Conflict and Cooperation in the Persian Gulf,” p. 627. 14. See Chapters 3 and 4 of Raymond Hinnebusch, The International Politics of the Middle East (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2003). 15. Douglas Little, American Orientalism: The United States and the Middle East since 1945, 3rd edition (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2008), p. 199. 16. Fred Halliday, Arabia without Sultans (London: Saqi Books, 2002), p. 19. 17. See J. E. Peterson, “Britain and the Gulf: At the Periphery of Empire,” in Lawrence Potter (ed.), The Persian Gulf in History (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), pp. 277–93. 18. This typology is also accepted by Matteo Legrenzi, building upon the work of neoclassical realism (NCR) scholars like Randall Schweller. See Legrenzi, GCC and the International Relations of the Persian Gulf, p. 48; Randall Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit: Brining the Revisionist State Back In,” International Security 19, no. 1 (1994): 72–107. 19. Charles Tripp, A History of Iraq, 3rd edition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 158–59. 20. This concept is introduced in Steven David, “Explaining Third World Alignment,” World Politics 43, no. 2 (1991): 233–56. 21. Richard Herrmann and R. William Ayres, “The New Geo-Politics of the Gulf: Forces for Change and Stability,” in Gary Sick and Lawrence Potter (eds.), The Persian Gulf at the Millennium: Essays in Politics, Economy, Security and Religion (New York: St. Martin’s, 1997), p. 49. 22. Mahmood Sariolghalam, “Arab-Iranian Rapprochement: The Regional and International Impediments,” in Khair el-Din Haseeb (ed.), Arab-Iranian Relations (Beirut: Centre for Arab Unity Studies, 1998), pp. 425–35. 23. Gregory Gause, “Balancing What? Threat Perception and Alliance Choice in the Gulf,” Security Studies 13, no. 2 (2003–4): 274. NOTES 163

24. Alexei Vassiliev, The History of Saudi Arabia (London: Saqi Books, 2000), p. 353. 25. Gregory Gause, “The Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia,” in Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushiravan Ehteshami (eds.), The Foreign Policies of Middle East States (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002), p. 193. 26. Legrenzi, GCC and the International Relations of the Persian Gulf, p. 48. 27. Anthony Cordesman, The Gulf and the Search for Strategic Stability: Saudi Arabia, the Military Balance in the Gulf, and Trends in the Arab-Israeli Military Balance (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1984), pp. 69–70. 28. Halliday, Arabia without Sultans, p. 68; Rachel Bronson, Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 109. 29. GlobalSecurity.org, “Saudi Arabia Military Guide,” http://www.globalse curity.org/military/world/gulf/sa.htm, accessed November 11, 2009; Tim Niblock, Saudi Arabia: Power, Legitimacy and Survival (Abingdon: Routledge, 2006), p. 66. 30. Fürtig, Iran’s Rivalry with Saudi Arabia, p. 150. 31. Legrenzi, GCC and the International Relations of the Persian Gulf, p. 76. 32. Niblock, Saudi Arabia, pp. 29, 31. 33. Nazih Ayubi, Over-stating the Arab State: Politics and Society in the Middle East (London: I. B. Tauris, 2001), pp. 127–32, 231. 34. Niblock, pp. 69, 80. 35. Ibid., p. 5. 36. For a full account, see Yaroslav Trofimov, The Siege of Mecca: The Forgotten Uprising (London: Allen Lane, 2007). 37. Hinnesbusch, International Politics of the Middle East, p. 74. 38. For details see Chapter 8 of Graham Fuller and Rend Francke, The Arab Shi’a: The Forgotten Muslims (New York: St Martin’s, 1999). 39. Niblock, Saudi Arabia, p. 29. 40. See also Yitzhak Nakash, Reaching for Power: The Shi’a in the Modern Arab World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006). 41. Christin Marschall, Iran’s Persian Gulf Policy: From Khomeini to Khatami (London: RoutledgeCurzon, 2003), pp. 3–4. 42. Shahram Chubhin, Iran’s National Security Policy: Capabilities, Intentions and Impact (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1994), p. 10. 43. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, “The Foreign Policy of Iran,” in Hinnebusch and Ehteshami (eds.), The Foreign Policies of Middle East States, p. 286. 44. Ahmed Hashin, The Crisis of the Iranian State (New York City, NY: Oxford University Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1995), p. 43. 45. This was even true under the rule of the shah. Hermann Frederick Eilts, “Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy,” in L. Carl Brown (ed.), Diplomacy in the Middle East: The International Relations of Regional and Outside Powers (London: I. B. Tauris, 2004), p. 237. 46. Shaul Bakhash, “Iran’s Foreign Policy under the Islamic Republic, 1979– 2000,” in Brown (ed.), Diplomacy in the Middle East, p. 247. 164 NOTES

47. Ehteshami, “Foreign Policy of Iran,” p. 287. 48. Bakhash, “Iran’s Foreign Policy under the Islamic Republic,” pp. 251–52. 49. Said Amir Arjomand, After Khomeini: Iran under His Successors (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), Chapter 7. 50. David Long, “The Impact of the Iranian Revolution on the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf States,” in John Esposito (ed.), The Iranian Revolution: Its Global Impact (Miami: Florida International University Press, 1990), p. 111. 51. Andrew Cockburn and Patrick Cockburn, Saddam Hussein: An American Obsession (London: Verso, 2002), p. 59. 52. Phebe Marr, The Modern History of Iraq, 2nd edition (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2004), p. 15. 53. Rashid Khalidi, Resurrecting Empire: Western Footprints and America’s Perilous Path in the Middle East (London: I. B. Tauris, 2004), p. 22; Tripp, History of Iraq, pp. 44–51. 54. Marr, Modern History of Iraq, p. 78. 55. Tripp, History of Iraq, pp. 153, 186. 56. Marr, Modern History of Iraq, pp. 139, 177. 57. Tripp, History of Iraq, pp. 76, 92. 58. Cordesman, Gulf and the Search for Strategic Stability, fig 5.3, p. 156. 59. Vassiliev, History of Saudi Arabia, p. 472. 60. Malcolm Kerr, The Arab Cold War: Gamal Abd al-Nasir and His Rivals, 1958–1970, 3rd edition (London: Oxford University Press, 1971), p. 19. 61. Halliday, Arabia without Sultans, pp. 482–83. See also James Bill, The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy of American-Iranian Relations (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1988). 62. Halliday, Arabia without Sultans, p. 465. 63. David Commins, The Gulf States: A Modern History (London: I. B. Tauris, 2012), p. 133. 64. Shaul Bakhash, “The Troubled Relationship: Iran and Iraq, 1930–80,” in Lawrence Potter and Gary Sick (eds.), Iran, Iraq, and the Legacies of War (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), p. 12; Marr, Modern History of Iraq, pp. 146–48; Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (London: Hurst, 2011), p. 25. 65. Tripp, History of Iraq, pp. 159–60; Marr, Modern History of Iraq, pp. 109–11. 66. Bakhash, “Troubled Relationship,” p. 17. 67. Fürtig, Iran’s Rivalry with Saudi Arabia, p. 62; and “Conflict and Cooperation in the Persian Gulf,” p. 628. 68. Fürtig, Iran’s Rivalry with Saudi Arabia, p.xiv. 69. Ibid., p. 73. 70. Bakhash, “Troubled Relationship,” p. 24. 71. Gerd Nonneman, “The Gulf States and the Iran-Iraq War: Pattern Shifts and Continuities,” in Potter and Sick (eds.), Iran, Iraq, and the Legacies of War, p. 168; Marschall, Iran’s Persian Gulf Policy, p. 62. 72. Steve Yetiv, Crude Awakenings: Global Oil Security and American Foreign Policy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004), pp. 54–55; Anwar-Ul- Haq Ahady, “Security in the Persian Gulf after Desert Storm,” International NOTES 165

Journal 42, no. 2 (1994): 224; Long, “Impact of the Iranian Revolution,” p. 113. 73. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, Gerd Nonneman, and Charles Tripp, War and Peace in the Gulf: Domestic Politics and Regional Relations into the 1990s (Reading: Ithaca Press, 1991), p. 45. 74. Nonneman, “Gulf States and the Iran-Iraq War,” p. 176; Scherazade Daneshkhu, “Iran and the New World Order,” in Tareq and Jacqueline Ismael (eds.), The Gulf War and the New World Order: International Relations of the Middle East (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1994), p. 304; Ulrichsen, Insecure Gulf, pp. 25–26. 75. A concise overview of the conflict can be found in Efraim Karsh, The Iran- Iraq War 1980–88 (Oxford, UK: Osprey, 2002). 76. Ibid., p. 48. 77. Ibid., p. 50. 78. A detailed description of US military operations in the Persian Gulf in 1987–88 can be found in Chapter 7 of David Palmer’s Guardians of the Gulf: A History of America’s Expanding Role in the Persian Gulf, 1833–1992 (New York: Free Press, 1992). 79. Author’s interview with Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, former US ambas- sador to Saudi Arabia, Washington, DC, February 2011; Bronson, Thicker than Oil, pp. 207–9, 219. 80. Gause, “Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia,” p. 195. 81. Ulrichsen, Insecure Gulf, p. 28. 82. Herrmann and Ayres, “New Geo-Politics of the Gulf,” p. 39; Ahady, “Security in the Persian Gulf after Desert Storm,” pp. 231–32. 83. Ahady, “Security in the Persian Gulf after Desert Storm,” pp. 219–23. 84. Vassiliev, History of Saudi Arabia, p. 352. 85. Halliday, Arabia without Sultans, pp. 58, 67; Little, American Orientalism, pp. 238–39.

4 Dual Containment: Conception, Evolution, and Implementation

1. John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2007), p. 281. 2. Martin Indyk, Innocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2009), p. 30. 3. F. Gregory Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), p. 88. 4. George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (New York: Vintage Books, 1998), pp. 305–6. 5. Shireen Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era: Resisting the New International Order (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2010), pp. 46–47. 6. Robert Litwak, “Iraq and Iran: From Dual to Differentiated Containment,” in Robert J. Lieber (ed.), Eagle Rules? Foreign Policy and American Primacy 166 NOTES

in the Twenty-First Century (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2002), p. 176. 7. An Australian-born former academic, he had previously worked for the pro-Israel lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), before founding the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP). 8. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, p. 36. 9. Author’s interview with Ellen Laipson, former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), NSC, National Intelligence Council and State Department official, Washington, DC, February 2011. 10. Martin Indyk, “The Clinton Administration’s Approach to the Middle East” speech to the WINEP Soref Symposium May 1993. The text of his speech is available at http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=61, accessed August 11, 2010. 11. Anthony Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” Foreign Affairs 73, no. 2 (1994): 43–55. 12. Indyk, “Clinton Administration’s Approach to the Middle East.” 13. Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” pp. 47–48. 14. Indyk, “Clinton Administration’s Approach to the Middle East.” 15. Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” p. 48. 16. Ibid., p. 49. 17. Matteo Legrenzi, The GCC and the International Relations of the Gulf: Diplomacy, Security and Economic Coordination in a Changing Middle East (London: I. B. Tauris, 2011), pp. 76–77. 18. Email correspondence between author and Ambassador , former State Department official, December 2010. See also Barbara Slavin, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to Confrontation (New York: St. Martin’s, 2007), p. 181. 19. Indyk, “Clinton Administration’s Approach to the Middle East.” Lake described Iraq as “an international renegade” in “Confronting Backlash States,” p. 50. 20. Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” pp. 52–53. 21. Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, pp. 46–47; Giandomenico Picco, Man without a Gun: One Diplomat’s Secret Struggle to Free the Hostages, Fight Terrorism, and End a War (New York: Times Books, 1999), pp. 3–7. 22. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, Chapter 2. 23. For instance, see Patrick Clawson, “The Continuing Logic of Dual Containment,” Survival 40, no. 1 (1998): 33–47. 24. F. Gregory Gause, “The Illogic of Dual Containment,” Foreign Affairs 73, no. 2 (1994): 53–66. 25. Zbigniew Brzeziksnki, Brent Scowcroft, and Richard Murphy, “Differentiated Containment,” Foreign Affairs 76, no. 3 (1997): 20–30. 26. Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), p. 261. NOTES 167

27. Ibid., p. 260. 28. Mearsheimer and Walt, Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, pp. 287–88. 29. Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007). 30. Ibid., pp. 184–85. 31. Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” pp. 47–48. 32. Gause, International Relations of the Persian Gulf, p. 88. 33. Anthony Cordesman and Ahmed Hashim, Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1997), pp. 290–91. 34. Steve Yetiv, The Absence of Grand Strategy: The United States and the Persian Gulf, 1975–2005 (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008), p. 92. 35. Andrew Cockburn and Patrick Cockburn, Saddam Hussein: An American Obsession (London: Verso, 2002), p. 94. 36. Dilip Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends: Iraq and Iran after the Gulf Wars (London: Routledge, 2001), p. 48. 37. Phebe Marr, The Modern History of Iraq, 2nd edition (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2004), p. 240. 38. Cordesman and Hashim, Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond, p. 292. 39. Marr, Modern History of Iraq, p. 288. 40. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 121. 41. Ibid., pp. 141–42. 42. Ibid., p. 152. 43. Ibid., p. 156. 44. Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, p. 110; Madeleine Albright and Bill Woodward, Madam Secretary: A Memoir (London: Macmillan, 2003), p. 285. 45. Marr, Modern History of Iraq, p. 289. 46. Steven Wright, The United States and Persian Gulf Security: The Foundations of the War on Terror (Reading: Ithaca Press, 2007), pp. 149–51. 47. Cockburn and Cockburn, Saddam Hussein, p. 138. 48. Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, p. 106. 49. Cockburn and Cockburn, Saddam Hussein, pp. 219–30; Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 106; Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, p. 102. 50. Wright, United States and Persian Gulf Security, Chapter 5. 51. Author’s interview with Dr. Mark Lagon, former deputy director House Republican Policy Committee and former staff member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, DC, February 2011; author’s interview with Bruce Riedel, former CIA and NSC official, Washington, DC, February 2011. 52. Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, pp. 112–13. 53. Albright and Woodward, Madam Secretary, p. 287. 54. Thomas Ricks, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq (London: Penguin, 2006), p. 22. 55. Ibid., p. 12. 168 NOTES

56. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, p. 41. 57. Gause, International Relations of the Persian Gulf, p. 88. 58. Quoted in Frank Ahrens, “The Reluctant Warrior; National Security Advisor Sandy Berger, a Onetime Dove Who Has Learned the Value of Claws,” Washington Post, February 24, 1998. 59. Said Amir Arjomand, After Khomeini: Iran under His Successors (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), Chapter 7. 60. Fawaz Gerges, America and Political Islam: Clash of Cultures of Clash of Interests? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), p. 120. 61. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 201. 62. Wright, United States and Persian Gulf Security, p. 100. 63. Ibid. 64. Wright, United States and Persian Gulf Security, p. 101. 65. Gerges, America and Political Islam, pp. 120–21. 66. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 209. 67. Geoffrey Kemp, Forever Enemies?: American Policy and the Islamic Republic of Iran (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment, 1994), p. 3. 68. Donette Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran: American-Iranian Relations since the Islamic Revolution (Abingdon: Routledge, 2010), p. 98. 69. Wright, United States and Persian Gulf Security, p. 109. 70. Ibid., p. 111. 71. Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, p. 101. 72. Dilip Hiro, Iran Today (London: Politico’s, 2005), p. 201. 73. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, p. 287. 74. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 219. 75. GlobalSecurity.org, “Gingrich ‘Add’ for Covert Action Iran: 1995,” http:// www.globalsecurity.org/intell/ops/iran-gingrich.htm, accessed October 7, 2010; Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 100. 76. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, p. 275. 77. Ibid., p. 274. 78. Hiro, Iran Today, p. 267. 79. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, p. 288. 80. Slavin, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies, p. 183. 81. Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 97. 82. Yetiv, Absence of Grand Strategy, p. 101. 83. Hiro, Iran Today, p. 262. 84. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, pp. 221–22. 85. Ibid., p. 234. 86. Hossein Alikhani, Sanctioning Iran: Anatomy of a Failed Policy (London: I. B. Tauris, 2000), p. 330. 87. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, p. 289. 88. Arms Control Association, “U.S. Buys Moldovan Aircraft to Prevent Acquisition by Iran,” Arms Control Today, October 1997, http://www .arms control.org/act/1997_10/moldoct, accessed September 23, 2010. 89. Wright, United States and Persian Gulf Security, p. 98. NOTES 169

90. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 223. 91. Ibid., p. 234. 92. Alikhani, Sanctioning Iran, pp. 332–33. 93. Ibid., p. 334. 94. Hiro, Iran Today, pp. 285–86. 95. Arms Control Association, “Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy,” http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron, accessed September 27, 2010; Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 100. 96. Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 98. 97. Gerges, America and Political Islam, p. 123. 98. David Patrikarakos, Nuclear Iran: Birth of an Atomic State (London: I. B. Tauris, 2012), pp. 136–37. 99. Matthew Rice, “Clinton Signs ‘Iran Nonproliferation Act,’ ” Arms Control Today, April 2000, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2000_04/irnap00, accessed September 27, 2010. 100. Patrikarakos, Nuclear Iran, p. 145. 101. Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 99. 102. Arjomand, After Khomeini, Chapter 7. 103. Wright, United States and Persian Gulf Security, p. 94. 104. Albright and Woodward, Madam Secretary, p. 319. 105. Mohammad Khatami, “Transcript of Interview with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami,” January 7, 1998, http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD /9801/07/iran/interview.html, accessed October 1, 2010. 106. Gerges, America and Political Islam, pp. 124–26; Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 213; Patrikarakos, Nuclear Iran, p. 136. 107. Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 106. 108. Ibid., p. 107. 109. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 233. 110. Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 111. 111. Ibid., p. 110. 112. Albright and Woodward, Madam Secretary, pp. 323–25. 113. Murray, Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 111. 114. Hiro, Neighbours, Not Friends, p. 244. 115. Ibid., p. 257. 116. Albright and Woodward, Madam Secretary, p. 324. 117. Khatami, “Transcript of Interview with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami.” 118. For example, clamping down on sanctions-busting trade with Iraq, ruling out official Iranian action against Salman Rushdie, and ending opposition to the Arab-Israeli peace process. Slavin, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies, p. 186. 119. Quoted in Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran, p. 114. 120. Ali Ansari, Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Policy and the Roots of Mistrust (London: Hurst, 2006), p. 178. 121. Email correspondence with Ambassador Edward Djerejian, former State Department official, December 2010. 122. Gerges, America and Political Islam, p. 115. 170 NOTES

5 A Triumphant America and a Villainous Iran: Perception as an Intervening Variable

1. Gideon Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy,” World Politics 51, no. 1 (1998): 144–72. For a comprehensive list, see Amelia Hadfield-Amkhan, British Foreign Policy, National Identity, and Neoclassical Realism (Plymouth: Rowman and Littlefield, 2010), Chapter 2, note 28. 2. William Wohlforth, The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993). 3. Randall Schweller, Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006), p. 1. 4. Steven Lobell, “Threat Assessment, the State, and Foreign Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Model,” in Steven Lobell, Norrin Ripsman, Jeffrey Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 42–74. 5. Colin Dueck, “Neoclassical Realism and the National Interest: Presidents, Domestic Politics, and Major Military Interventions,” in Lobell, Ripsman, and Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, pp. 149–50. 6. Martin Indyk, “Beyond the Balance of Power: America’s Choice in the Middle East,” The National Interest, no. 26 (1991–92): 33. 7. Ibid., p. 42. 8. Ibid., p. 43. 9. Martin Indyk, “The Clinton Administration’s Approach to the Middle East,” Soref Symposium, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, May 1993, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-clinton -administrations-approach-to-the-middle-east, accessed July 8, 2012. 10. Anthony Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” Foreign Affairs 73, no. 2 (1994): 48. 11. Indyk, “Clinton Administration’s Approach to the Middle East.” 12. Interview with Bruce Riedel former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Department, and National Security Council (NSC) official, Washington, DC, February 2011. 13. Interview with Ambassador Chas Freeman, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Defense Department official, Washington, DC, February 2011; Martin Indyk, Innocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2009), p. 31. 14. John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2007), p. 142. See also pp. 141–42, 281. 15. F. Gregory Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), p. 118. 16. Matteo Legrenzi, The GCC and the International Relations of the Gulf: Diplomacy, Security and Economic Cooperation in a Changing Middle East (London: I. B. Tauris, 2011), p. 129. NOTES 171

17. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Iran in World Politics: The Question of the Islamic Republic (London: Hurst, 2007), p. 125. 18. Gary Sick, All Fall Down: America’s Tragic Encounter with Iran (Lincoln, NE: iUniverse.com, 2001), pp. 192–97. 19. Graham Fuller and Ian Lesser, A Sense of Siege: The Geopolitics of Islam and the West (Boulder, CO: Westview/RAND, 1995), p. 22. 20. Ahmad Moussalli, U.S. Foreign Policy and Islamist Politics (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2008), p. 17. 21. Fawaz Gerges, America and Political Islam: Clash of Cultures or Clash of Interests? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), pp. 43–44. 22. James Bill, The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy of American-Iranian Relations (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1988), p. 302. 23. Phebe Marr, “US Strategy towards the Persian Gulf: From Rogue States to Failed States,” in Markus Kaim (ed.), Great Powers and Regional Orders: The United States and the Persian Gulf (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2008), p. 14. 24. Thomas Henrikson, America and the Rogue States (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), p. 72. 25. James Blight et al., Becoming Enemies: US-Iran Relations and the Iran-Iraq War, 1979–1988 (New York: Rowman and Littlefield, 2012). 26. William Beeman, The “Great Satan” vs. the “Mad Mullahs”: How the United States and Iran Demonize Each Other (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2005), p. 138. 27. Sick, All Fall Down, p. 259. 28. Bill, Eagle and the Lion, p. 296. 29. Barry Rubin, Paved with Good Intentions: The American Experience and Iran (New York: Oxford University Press, 1980), p. 363. 30. Henrikson, America and the Rogue States, p. 72. 31. Beeman, “Great Satan” vs. the “Mad Mullahs, p. 139. 32. Ali Ansari, Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Roots of Mistrust (London: Hurst, 2006), p. 93. 33. Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), p. 172. 34. Rubin, Paved with Good Intentions, p. 330. 35. Babak Ganji, Politics of Confrontation: The Foreign Policy of the USA and Revolutionary Iran (London: I. B. Tauris, 2006), p. 5. 36. Blight et al., Becoming Enemies, Appendix I. 37. Gerges, America and Political Islam, p. 68. 38. Ansari, Confronting Iran, p. 82. 39. Blight et al., Becoming Enemies, “Prologue.” 40. “[Iran-Contra] was still fresh in people’s minds [in the Clinton admin- istration] . . . everyone remembers it, no-one wants to get burned again,” Kenneth Pollack, former CIA and NSC official, interview with author, Washington, DC, March 2012. 41. Ansari, Confronting Iran, pp. 72–73, 112. 42. Shireen Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era: Resisting the New International Order (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2010), p. 42. 172 NOTES

43. For instance, see Maureen Dowd, “Iran Is Reportedly Ready for a Deal to Recover Assets,” New York Times, August 9, 1989. 44. Robert Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy: Containment after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000), p. 163. 45. Giandomenico Picco, Man without a Gun (New York: Times Books, 1999), pp. 5–6; Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, p. 49. 46. Quoted in Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007), p. 152. 47. Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilisations?,” Foreign Affairs 72, no. 3 (1993): 22–49. 48. The terms are introduced and defined in Chapter 2 of Gerges, America and Political Islam. 49. Beeman, “Great Satan” vs. the “Mad Mullahs,” p. 86. 50. Huntington, “The Clash of Civilisations?,” p. 35. 51. Bernard Lewis, “The Roots of Muslim Rage,” Atlantic Monthly, September 1990. 52. Charles Krauthammer, “Iran: Orchestra of Disorder,” Washington Post, January 1, 1993. 53. Ibid. 54. For instance, see Ghassan Salame, “Islam and the West,” Foreign Policy no. 90 (1993): 22–37. 55. Leon Hadar, “What Green Peril?,” Foreign Affairs 72, no. 2 (1993): 40–42. 56. Ibid., p. 30. 57. Gerges, America and Political Islam, p. 35. 58. Ibid., pp. 35–36. 59. Edward Djerejian, Danger and Opportunity: An American Ambassador’s Journey through the Middle East (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2008), p. 20. 60. A copy of the text is available at http://www.disam.dsca.mil/pubs/Vol%20 14_4/Djerejian.pdf, accessed September 19 , 2014. 61. Indyk, “Clinton Administration’s Approach to the Middle East.” 62. William J. Clinton, “Remarks to the Jordanian Parliament in Amman, Jordan,” October 26, 1994, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php? pid=49373, accessed January 27, 2013. 63. Author’s interview with Hillary Mann Leverett, former State Department and NSC official, Washington, DC, February 2011. 64. Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” p. 50. 65. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 8. 66. Gerges provides useful case studies of the American relationship with these two states in the first half of the 1990s in chapters 7 and 8 of America and Political Islam. 67. Wikileaks cables also suggest that American diplomats were skeptical of the organization’s claims that it was committed to democracy. For instance, see cable no. 99CAIRO2104, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood at Low Ebb,” March NOTES 173

16, 1999, http://wikileaks.org/cable/1999/03/99CAIRO2104.html, accessed September 5, 2012. 68. Emphasis in original text, Ansari, Confronting Iran, p. 146. 69. Ofira Seliktar, Navigating Iran: From Carter to Obama (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), Chapter 5. 70. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy, pp. 24–26. 71. Michael Cox, US Foreign Policy after the Cold War: Superpower without a Mission? (London: Pinter, 1995), p. 120. 72. Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, p. 50. 73. Arthur Lowrie, “The Campaign against Islam and American Foreign Policy,” Middle East Policy 4, no. 1–2 (1995): 210. 74. Cox, US Foreign Policy after the Cold War, pp. 17, 32. 75. Author’s interview with Kenneth Pollack, March 2012. 76. Cox, US Foreign Policy after the Cold War, p. 124. 77. Lake, “Confronting Backlash States,” p. 55. 78. Moussalli, U.S. Foreign Policy and Islamist Politics, p. 21. 79. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy; Jeffrey Fields, “Adversaries and Statecraft: Explaining U.S. Foreign Policy towards Rogue States,” PhD Dissertation, University of Southern California, 2007. 80. Blight et al., Becoming Enemies, Appendix I. 81. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, p. 248. 82. US State Department, “Patterns of Global Terrorism 1996: Overview of State-Sponsored Terrorism,” http://www.state.gov/www/global/terrorism /1996Report/overview.html, accessed January 27, 2013. 83. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, pp. 290–91. 84. US State Department, “Patterns of Global Terrorism 1996.” 85. William Clinton, My Life (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2004), p. 718. 86. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, pp. 224–26. 87. The text of his message can be found at “Message to President Khatami from President Clinton,” http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB318 /doc02.pdf, accessed January 27, 2013. 88. Government of Islamic Republic of Iran, “Response to Letter from President Clinton,” Clinton Presidential Library/George Washington University National Security Archive, http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAE BB318/doc03.pdf, accessed January 27, 2013. 89. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, pp. 171, 218. 90. Author’s interview with Keith Weissman, former American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) official, Washington, DC, March 2012. 91. Gary Sick, “Rethinking Dual Containment,” Survival 40, no. 1 (1998): 10. 92. Moussalli, U.S. Foreign Policy and Islamist Politics, p. 22. 93. Geoffrey Kemp, “Iran: Can the United States Do a Deal?,” The Washington Quarterly 24, no. 1 (2001): 115. 94. A full statistical breakdown is available at the website of USAID: http://gbk .eads.usaidallnet.gov/data/detailed.html, accessed January 27, 2013. 95. , for instance, visited Syria 25 times during his tenure as secretary of state. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 48. 174 NOTES

96. Clinton, My Life, p. 679. 97. Thomas Lippman, Madeleine Albright and the New American Diplomacy (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2000), p. 175. 98. Author’s interview with Steve Rosen, former AIPAC official, Silver Springs, MD, March 2012. 99. Clinton, My Life, p. 545. 100. Interview with Keith Weissman, March 2012. 101. Clinton, My Life, p. 545. 102. Gerges, America and Political Islam, p. 53. 103. Yoram Peri, “Afterword,” in Yitzhak Rabin, The Rabin Memoirs, expanded edition (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996), p. 365. 104. Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, p. 164. 105. Author’s interview with Ambassador Chas Freeman, February 2011. 106. Quoted in Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, p. 193. 107. Lippman, Madeleine Albright and the New American Diplomacy, pp. 175–76. 108. Thomas Lippman, correspondence with author, reporter Washington Post, January 2013. 109. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, p. 218. 110. Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, p. 201. 111. Ibid., p. 206. 112. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 187. 113. Thomas Lippman, “Israel Presses US to Sanction Russian Missile Firms Aiding Iran,” Washington Post, September 25, 1997. 114. Author’s phone interview with Stephen Rademaker, former chief coun- sel, House of Representatives Committee on International Relations, Washington, DC, February 2011. 115. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, p. 32. 116. Ibid., p. 43. 117. Ibid., p. 39. 118. Ibid., p. 39. 119. Ibid., p. 168; author’s interview with Martin Indyk, former State Department and NSC official, Washington, DC, March 2012; Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, p. 52. 120. Interview with Pollack. 121. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, “Iran’s Regional Policies since the End of the Cold War,” in Ali Gheissari (ed.), Contemporary Iran: Economy, Society, Politics (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 333. 122. Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, pp. 153–54. 123. Ehteshami, “Iran’s Regional Policies since the End of the Cold War,” p. 333. 124. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 164; Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, p. 155. 125. Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, p. 155. 126. Hunter, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era, p. 51. 127. Steve Yetiv, The Absence of Grand Strategy: The United States in the Persian Gulf, 1972–2005 (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008), p. 99. NOTES 175

128. Quoted in Hoonan Peimani, Iran and the United States: The Rise of the West Asian Regional Grouping (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1999), p. 92. 129. Mohammad Khatami, “Transcript of Interview with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami,” http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/9801/07/iran /interview.html, accessed January 24, 2013. 130. Robin Wright, “Clinton Encourages More Exchanges, Better Ties with Iran,” Los Angeles Times, January 30, 1998. 131. Kenneth Pollack, then a NSC official, recalls that he was sent to “sound out” proponents of sanctions on Iran about the overture but that the president had decided to proceed anyway. Author’s interview with Pollack. 132. Taylor Branch, The Clinton Tapes: Conversations with a President, 1993– 2001 (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2009), p. 487. 133. Ibid., pp. 498–99. 134. Barbara Slavin, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to Confrontation (New York: St. Martin’s, 2007), pp. 187–88. 135. Indyk, Innocent Abroad, p. 217. 136. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, pp. 312, 320.

6 Two Voices: Domestic Structure as an Intervening Variable

1. Fred Halliday, “The Iranian Revolution and International Politics: Some European Perspectives,” in John Esposito and R. K. Ramazani (eds.), Iran at the Crossroads (New York: Palgrave, 2001), p. 179. 2. Examples of the former include Thomas Christensen’s Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict 1947–1958 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996) and Fareed Zakaria’s From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998). Examples of the lat- ter include Jeffrey Taliaferro, “State Building for Future War: Neoclassical Realism and the Resource Extractive State,” Security Studies 15, no. 3 (2006): 464–95; and Randall Schweller, Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006). 3. Norrin Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism and Domestic Interest Groups,” in Steven Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Jeffrey Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State and Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 170–93. 4. Steven Lobell, “Threat Assessment, the State, and Foreign Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Model,” in Lobell, Ripsman, and Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State and Foreign Policy, pp. 42–74. 5. John Dumbrell, Clinton’s Foreign Policy: Between the Bushes, 1992–2000 (Abingdon: Routledge, 2009), p. 36. 6. Edward R. Drachman and Alan Shank, Presidents and Foreign Policy: Countdown to 10 Controversial Decisions (Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 1997), p. 5. 176 NOTES

7. Colin Dueck, Hard Line: The Republican Party and U.S. Foreign Policy since World War II (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010), pp. 6–7. 8. Edwin S. Corwin, The President: Office and Powers 1787–1957: History and Analysis of Practice and Opinion, 4th edition (New York: New York University Press, 1964), p. 171. 9. Ibid. Emphasis in the original text. 10. Ibid. Emphasis in the original text. 11. Cecil Crabb and Pat Holt, Invitation to Struggle: Congress, the President, and Foreign Policy, 4th edition (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1992), p.ix. 12. Corwin, President Office and Powers, pp. 184–85. 13. Between 1798 and 1983, the United States deployed its armed forces more than two hundred times while Congress has only declared war five times, four of which occurred after the outbreak of hostilities. Joseph Avella, “The President, Congress, and Decisions to Employ Military Force,” in Phillip Henderson (ed.), The Presidency Then and Now (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000), p. 51. 14. Cecil Crabb, Glen Antizzo, and Leila Sarieddine, Congress and the Foreign Policy Process: Modes of Legislative Behavior (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 2000), pp. 3–4. 15. Clinton Rossiter, The American Presidency (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1957), pp. 9–10. 16. Ibid., p. 10. 17. Corwin, President Office and Powers, pp. 184–85. 18. Crabb and Holt, Invitation to Struggle, p. 2. 19. Crabb, Antizzo, and Sarieddine, Congress and the Foreign Policy Process, p. 158. 20. Robert Pastor, “Disagreeing on Latin America,” in Paul Peterson (ed.), The President, the Congress, and the Making of Foreign Policy (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1994), p. 217. 21. Crabb and Holt, Invitation to Struggle, p. 57. 22. Crabb, Antizzo, and Sarieddine, Congress and the Foreign Policy Process, pp. 25–26. 23. Rossiter, American Presidency, p. 10. 24. David Halberstam, The Best and the Brightest, 4th edition (New York: Ballantine Books, 1992), p. 420. 25. Corwin, President Office and Powers, p. 192. 26. Pastor, “Disagreeing on Latin America,” p. 223. 27. Corwin, President Office and Powers, p. 225. 28. Zakaria, From Wealth to Power. 29. Lee Hamilton and Jordan Tama, A Creative Tension: The Foreign Policy Roles of the President and Congress (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center, 2002), p. 28. 30. James M. Lindsay, Congress and the Politics of US Foreign Policy (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994), pp. 27–28; Carter and Scott, Choosing to Lead, pp. 17–18. NOTES 177

31. Norman Ornstein, “The Constitution and the Sharing of Foreign Policy Responsibility,” in Edmund Muskie, Kenneth Rush, and Kenneth Thompson (eds.), The President, the Congress, and Foreign Policy (London: University Press of America, 1986), pp. 55–56. 32. Exports accounted for 11 percent of US GDP in 2000, compared with 5 percent in 1970. Meghan O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism (Washington, DC: , 2003), p. 21. 33. Crabb and Holt, Invitation to Struggle, pp. 272–73. 34. Harold H. Saunders, “The Middle East, 1973–1984: Hidden Agendas,” in Muskie, Rush, and Thompson (eds.), The President, the Congress, and Foreign Policy, p. 192. 35. Hamilton and Tama, Creative Tension, p. 11. 36. Michael Mezey, Congress, the President, and Public Policy (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989), p. 123. 37. James A. Thurber, “Stability and Change in the Post-Cold War Congress,” in Michael Minkenberg and Herbert Dittgen (eds.), American Impasse: U.S. Domestic and Foreign Policy after the Cold War (Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1996), p. 66. 38. Crabb and Holt, Invitation to Struggle, pp. 39–40. 39. Hamilton and Tama, Creative Tension, pp. 11–12. 40. Lindsay, Congress and the Politics of US Foreign Policy, p. 29. 41. For example, see Majorie Connelly, “The 1994 Elections; Portrait of the Electorate: Who Voted for Whom in the House,” New York Times, November 13, 1994; Robert J. Samuelson, “Changing the Mainstream,” Washington Post, November 30, 1994. 42. The US Senate has 100 voting members and the House of Representatives has 435. In common with many other political systems, legislation must pass both chambers to become law. 43. Derek Chollet and James Goldgeier, America between the Wars: From 11/9 to 9/11: The Misunderstood Years between the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the Start of the War on Terror (New York: Public Affairs, 2008), pp. 87–88. 44. Dueck, Hard Line, p. 260. 45. Chollet and Goldgeier, America between the Wars, p. 108; William G. Hyland, Clinton’s World: Remaking American Foreign Policy (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1999), p. 138. 46. Bert Rockman, “Leadership Style and the Clinton Presidency,” in Colin Campbell and Bert Rockman (eds.), The Clinton Presidency: First Appraisals (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1996), p. 343. 47. Walter Russell Meade, Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World (New York: Taylor and Francis, 2002), p. 305. 48. Dueck, Hard Line, p. 259. 49. George C. Herring, From Colony to Superpower: U.S. Foreign Relations since 1776 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 931. 50. Dumbrell, Clinton’s Foreign Policy, pp. 36, 29. 178 NOTES

51. Steven Wright, The United States and Persian Gulf Security: The Found- ations of the War on Terror (Reading: Ithaca Press, 2007), p. 106. 52. Crabb, Antizzo, and Sarieddine, Congress and the Foreign Policy Process, p. 50. 53. Chollet and Goldgeier, American between the Wars, p. 111. 54. Ibid., p. 111; Jack F. Matlock, Jr., Superpower Illusions: How Myths and False Ideologies Led America Astray—and How to Return to Reality (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2010), p. 185. 55. Dueck, Hard Line, p. 255. 56. Ibid. 57. Ibid., p. 256. 58. Ibid., p. 254. 59. Chollet and Goldgeier, American between the Wars, p. 111. 60. Steven Greenhouse, “Helms Seeks to Merge Foreign Policy Agencies,” New York Times, March 16, 1995. 61. Dueck, Hard Line, p. 262. 62. Sebastian Mallaby, “The Bullied Pulpit: A Weak Chief Executive Makes Worse Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs 79, no. 2 (2000): 4–5. 63. Dueck, Hard Line, p. 260. 64. Lindsay, Congress and the Politics of US Foreign Policy, p. 32. 65. Kenneth Rodman, Sanctions beyond Borders: Multinational Corporations and U.S. Economic Statecraft (Oxford, UK: Rowan and Littlefield, 2001), p. 175. 66. I am indebted to Mr. Stephen Rademaker for pointing this out. Interview with Stephen Rademaker, former chief counsel to House of Representatives Committee on International Relations, Washington, DC, February 23, 2011. 67. Eugene Wittkopf and James McCormick, “Congress, the President, and the End of the Cold War: Has Anything Changed?,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, no. 4 (1998): 440–66. 68. James Lindsay, “Deference and Defiance: The Shifting Rhythms of Executive-Legislative Relations in Foreign Policy,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 33, no. 3 (2003): 535. 69. Gary Hufbauer et al., Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2007), p. 135, fig. 5.4. 70. Ibid., p. 126. 71. Ibid., p. 134. 72. Gary Hufbauer, “The Snake Oil of Diplomacy: When Sanctions Rise, the U.S. Peddles Sanctions,” Washington Post, July 12, 1998. See also Richard Haass, “Sanctioning Madness,” Foreign Affairs 76, no. 6 (1997): 74–85. 73. Jesse Helms, “What Sanctions Epidemic? U.S. Business’ Curious Crusade,” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 2 (1999): 7. 74. O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions, p. 12. 75. Ibid., p. 12. NOTES 179

76. Ibid. 77. Ibid., p. 12, note 5. 78. Hufbauer et al., Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, pp. 134–35. 79. Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), p. 270. 80. Ibid., p. 263. 81. Jeffrey Fields, “Adversaries and Statecraft: Explaining U.S. Foreign Policy towards Rogue States,” PhD Dissertation, University of Southern California, 2007, p. 155. 82. David Sanger, “Conoco Told U.S. Years Ago of Oil Negotiations with Iran,” New York Times, March 16, 1995. 83. Hossein Alikhani, Sanctioning Iran: Anatomy of a Failed Policy (London: I. B. Tauris, 2000), p. 182. 84. Douglas Jehl, “Oil Concern Ends a Deal with Iran as President Acts,” New York Times, March 14, 1995. 85. Fawaz Gerges, America and Political Islam: Clash of Cultures or Clash of Interests? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), pp. 129–30; Ali Ansari, Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Roots of Mistrust (London: Hurst, 2006), p. 144. 86. Rodman, Sanctions beyond Borders, p. 176. 87. Wright, United States and Persian Gulf Security, p. 113. 88. Ansari, Confronting Iran, p. 136. 89. Pollack, Persian Puzzle, p. 273. 90. R. Jeffrey Smith, “U.S. Leans towards Tighter Iran Sanctions; Administration Willing to Work with GOP on Curtailing Foreign Trade,” Washington Post, November 10, 1995; Reuters, “Gingrich ‘Seeks to Topple Iranian Regime,’ ” Australian, December 12, 1995. 91. For instance, see Daniel Byman, Kenneth Pollack, and Gideon Rose, “The Rollback Fantasy,” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 1 (1999): 24–41. 92. For details, see the text of the orders, US Treasury Department, “Executive Orders 12957—Prohibiting Certain Transactions with respect to the Development of Iranian Petroleum Resources,” March 17, 1995, http:// www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/12957.pdf and “Executive Order 12959—Prohibiting Certain Transactions with respect to Iran,” May 9, 1995, http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions /Documents/12959.pdf, accessed January 29, 2013. 93. This point is also made by O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions, p. 98. 94. Lindsay, “Deference and Defiance,” p. 532. 95. Rodman, Sanctions beyond Borders, pp. 184–85. 96. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower (New York: Basic Books, 2007), p. 102. 97. Ernest Preeg, Feeling Good or Doing Good with Sanctions: Unilateral Economic Sanctions and the U.S. National Interest (Washington, DC: CSIS Press, 1999), p. 54. 98. Author’s interview with Keith Weissman, former American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) official, Washington, DC, March 2012. 180 NOTES

99. Hossein Askari et al., Case Studies of U.S. Economic Sanctions: The Chinese, Cuban, and Iranian Experience (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2003), p. 172. 100. Ibid., p. 211. 101. “Iran Pointer to Better US Ties,” Financial Times, September 30, 1998. 102. Ansari, Confronting Iran, pp. 177–78. 103. O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions, p. 47.

7 “Mischiefs of Faction”: Interest Groups as an Intervening Variable

1. Steve Rosen, former AIPAC official, interview with author, Silver Springs, Maryland, March 2012. 2. Norrin Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism and Domestic Interest Groups,” in Steven Lobell, Norrin Ripsman, and Jeffrey Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 170–93. 3. James Madison, “The Utility of the Union as a Safeguard against Domestic Faction and Insurrection,” The Federalist, No. 10, November 22, 1787, available at http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa10.htm, accessed May 28, 2012. 4. Ibid. 5. For example, see George Kennan, The Cloud of Danger: Some Current Problems of American Foreign Policy (London: Hutchinson, 1977); Charles Matthias, “Ethnic Groups and Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs 59, no. 5 (1991–92): 975–98; Tony Smith, Foreign Attachments: The Power of Ethnic Groups in the Making of American Foreign Policy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2000), p. 2. 6. Samuel Huntington, “The Erosion of American National Interests,” Foreign Affairs 76, no. 5 (1997): 29. 7. Lester Milbrath, “Interest Groups and Foreign Policy,” in James Rosenau (ed.), Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy (New York: Free Press, 1967), pp. 231–51. 8. David Paul and Rachel Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2009), p. 203. 9. Paul Watanabe, Ethnic Groups, Congress, and American Foreign Policy: The Politics of the Turkish Arms Embargo (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 1984), pp. 21–22. 10. David Howard Goldberg, Foreign Policy and Ethnic Interest Groups: American and Canadian Lobby for Israel (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 1990), p. 11. 11. Rebecca Hersman, Friends and Foes: How Congress and the President Really Make Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2000), pp. 3–5. 12. James Rosenau, “Introduction,” Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy (New York: Free Press, 1967), p. 4. 13. Ibid., p. 4. NOTES 181

14. Ralph Carter and James Scott, Choosing to Lead: Understanding Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2009), p. 15. 15. Milbrath, “Interest Groups and Foreign Policy,” p. 25. 16. Ibid., p. 24. 17. Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism and Domestic Interest Groups,” pp. 170–93. 18. Hossein Alikhani, Sanctioning Iran: Anatomy of a Failed Policy (London: I. B. Tauris, 2000), p. 177; figure drawn from AARP official website, http://www .aarp.org/about-aarp/press-center/info-2007/rx_bargaining_power.html, accessed June 1, 2012; Burdett Loomis and Allan Cigler, “Introduction: The Changing Nature of Interest Group Politics,” in Allan Cigler and Burdett Loomis (eds.), Interest Group Politics, 7th edition (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2007), p. 13. 19. Paul and Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy, pp. 135–36. 20. Ibid., p. 211. 21. John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2007), p. 112. 22. Author’s interview with Rosen. 23. The best known and most controversial is Mearsheimer and Walt. See also, George Ball and Douglas Ball, The Passionate Attachment: America’s Involvement with Israel, 1947 to the Present (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992). 24. Ibid., p. 203. 25. Some authors also argue that support for Israeli foreign policy among Jewish Americans has also decreased substantially in recent years. For instance, see Norman G. Finkelstein, Knowing Too Much: Why the American Jewish Romance with Israel Is Coming to an End (New York: OR Books, 2012). 26. See, “J Street Is the Political Home for Pro-Israel, Pro-peace Americans,” http://jstreet.org/about, accessed January 27, 2013. 27. For instance, Paul and Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy. 28. Ibid., pp. 48, 107. 29. Eric Unslaner, “American Interests in the Balance: Do Ethnic Groups Dominate Policymaking?,” in Cigler and Loomis (eds.), Interest Group Politics. 30. Mitchell Bard, The Water’s Edge and Beyond: Defining the Limits to Domestic Influence on United States Middle East Policy (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1991), p. 13. 31. Camille Mansour, Beyond Alliance: Israel in U.S. Foreign Policy, translated by James Cohen (New York: Press, 1994), pp. 240–42. 32. Smith, Foreign Attachments, p. 124. 33. Christopher Hill argues that it has “no rival” in this regard, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), p. 253. 34. Paul and Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy, p. 105. 35. Ball and Ball, Passionate Attachment, claim these figures as 90 percent and 40–50 percent, respectively; Unslaner, “American Interests in the Balance,” 182 NOTES

p. 307; Mitchell Bard, “The Influence of Ethnic Interest Groups on American Middle East Policy,” in Charles Kegley and Eugene Wittkopf (eds.), The Domestic Sources of American Foreign Policy: Insights and Evidence (New York: St. Martin’s, 1988), pp. 58–59; Nimrod Novik, The United States and Israel: Domestic Determinants of a Changing U.S. Commitment (Boulder, CO: Westview/Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, 1986), p. 59. 36. Michael Thomas, American Policy toward Israel: The Power and Limits of Belief (Abingdon: Routledge, 2007), p. 21; Smith, Foreign Attachments, p. 107; Mansour, Beyond Alliance, p. 245. 37. Mansour, Beyond Alliance, p. 248; Novik, United States and Israel, pp. 58–59. 38. Mitchell Bard, “Congress & the Middle East: The Pro-Israel & Pro-Arab Lobbies,” Jewish Virtual Library, http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource /US-Israel/lobby.html#2, accessed January 28, 2013. 39. Paul and Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy, p. 111. 40. Ian Bickerton, “America’s Israel/Israel’s America,” in John Dumbrell and Axel Schäfer, America’s “Special Relationships”: Foreign and Domestic Aspects of the Politics of Alliance (Abingdon: Routledge, 2009), p. 176; Edward Tivnan, The Lobby: Jewish Political Power and American Foreign Policy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1987), p. 249. 41. Tivnan, Lobby, p. 76. 42. Bickerton, “America’s Israel/Israel’s America,” p. 176; Ball and Ball, Passionate Attachment, pp. 202–3; Thomas, American Policy toward Israel, p. 30; Watanabe, Ethnic Groups, Congress, and American Foreign Policy, p. 10; Bernard Reich, Securing the Covenant: United States-Israel Relations after the Cold War (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995), p. 68; Goldberg, Foreign Policy and Ethnic Interest Groups, Chapter 3. 43. Shai Franklin quoted by Thomas Ambrosio, “Entangling Alliances: The Turkish-Israeli Lobbying Partnership and Its Unintended Consequences,” in Thomas Ambrosio (ed.), Ethnic Identity Groups and U.S. Foreign Policy (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002), p. 156. 44. Bard, Water’s Edge and Beyond; author’s interview with Rosen. 45. Smith, Foreign Attachments, p. 88. 46. Shigeo Hirano et al., “Primary Elections and Partisan Polarization in the US Congress,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5, no. 2 (2010): 184. 47. Paul Latham, Selling AWACS to Saudi Arabia: The Reagan Administration’s Competing Interests in the Middle East (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002), p. 67. 48. Michael Mezey, Congress, the President, and Public Policy (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989), p. 127. 49. Ball and Ball, Passionate Attachment, p. 209. 50. Robert Dreyfuss, “AIPAC from the Inside, Part 1: Isolating Iran,” Tehran Bureau, PBS/Frontline, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehran bureau/2011/06/aipac-from-the-inside-1-isolating-iran.html, accessed June 26, 2014; Bernard Reich, The United States and Israel: Influence in the Special Relationship (New York: Praeger, 1984), p. 199. NOTES 183

51. Paul and Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy, Chapter 3 and p. 198. 52. Goldberg, Foreign Policy and Ethnic Interest Groups, pp. 24–25. 53. Kennan, Cloud of Danger, p. 81. 54. Bard, “Congress & the Middle East.” 55. Unslaner, “American Interests in the Balance,” p. 306. 56. Ibid., p. 310. 57. Bard, Water’s Edge and Beyond, p. 7. 58. See Latham, Selling AWACS to Saudi Arabia, for details. 59. Bard, Water’s Edge and Beyond, pp. 7–11, 13–17; Unslaner, “American Interests in the Balance,” p. 308. 60. This data was retrieved using the US Census Bureau’s American FactFinder website, http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml, accessed September 20, 2014. 61. Bard, “Congress & the Middle East.” 62. Unslaner, “American Interests in the Balance,” p. 307. 63. Bard, “Congress & the Middle East.” 64. US Census Bureau, American FactFinder. 65. Soraya Fati and Raha Rafii, Strength in Numbers: The Relative Concentration of Iranian Americans across the United States, Iran census report, National Iranian American Council, September 2003. 66. Ali Mostashari and Ali Khodamhosseini, “An Overview of Socioeconomic Characteristics of the Iranian-American Community Based on the 2000 U.S. Census,” Iranian Studies Group at MIT, February 2004, http://www .isgmit.org/projects-storage/census/socioeconomic.pdf, accessed January 24, 2013. 67. Paul and Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy, pp. 53, 156. 68. Ali Ansari, Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Roots of Mistrust (London: Hurst, 2006), p. 134. 69. Neil Macfarquhar, “Exiles in ‘Tehrangeles’ Are Split on Iran,” New York Times, May 9, 2006. 70. Fati and Rafii, Strength in Numbers. 71. Mearsheimer and Walt, Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 144. 72. Paul and Paul, Ethnic Lobbies and US Foreign Policy, pp. 22–23. 73. One unusual exception may be the exemptions won by soft-drink compa- nies such as Coca-Cola Co. from US sanctions on trade with Sudan in the 1990s. Sudan was the world’s primary source of gum arabic, an important ingredient in their products. Jonathan Randal, Osama: The Making of a Terrorist, revised edition (London: I. B. Tauris, 2012), p. 159. 74. Tivnan, Lobby, p. 153. 75. Bard, “Influence of Ethnic Groups,” pp. 66–67. 76. Mearsheimer and Walt, Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, pp. 143–44. 77. Latham, Selling AWACS to Saudi Arabia, p. 61. 78. Mearsheimer and Walt, Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 144. 79. Tivnan, Lobby, 194. 80. Cited in Bard, “Congress & the Middle East.” 184 NOTES

81. Robert Corzine, “BP Ready to Invest in Iran If US Line Eases,” Financial Times, April 23, 1998. 82. Author’s correspondence with former oil company executive, May 2012. 83. Author’s interview with Keith Weissman, former AIPAC official, Washington, DC, March 2012. 84. Kenneth Rodman, Sanctions beyond Borders: Multinational Corporations and U.S. Economic Statecraft (Oxford, UK: Rowman and Littlefield, 2001), p. 190. 85. Terence Lau, “Triggering Parent Company Liability under United States Sanctions Regimes: The Troubling Implications of Prohibiting Approval and Facilitation,” American Business Law Journal 41, no. 4 (2004): 414. 86. Sasan Fayazmanesh, The United States and Iran: Sanctions, Wars, and the Policy of Dual Containment (Abingdon: Routledge, 2008), electronic edi- tion, Chapter 5. 87. William Roberts, “Sanctions Flexibility Sought,” Journal of Commerce, June 25, 1998. 88. Michael Lelyveld, “Sanctions Lose Their Sting as US Obsession Grows,” Journal of Commerce, June 19, 1998. 89. See http://archives.usaengage.org/archives/index.html, accessed September 20, 2014. 90. Ken Silverstein, “So You Want to Trade with a Dictator,” Mother Jones, June 1998, p. 41. 91. Michael Lelyveld, “Clinton Makes Few Friends at Home on Sanctions Waiver,” Journal of Commerce, May 20, 1998. 92. Roberts, “Sanctions Flexibility Sought.” 93. Micheal Lelyveld, “Last Minute Senate Maneuvering Stalls Sanctions Bill,” Journal of Commerce, October 9, 1998. 94. Thomas, American Policy toward Israel, p. 24. The only prime minister of Israel in this period who was not a member of the Likud Party was Shimon Peres, for a two-year period in the mid-1980s as part of an unusual Labor- Likud coalition. 95. Author’s interview with Weissman. 96. Ibid. 97. Author’s interview with Rosen. 98. Author’s interview with Weissman. 99. Thomas, American Policy toward Israel, pp. 137–38, 158–59. 100. AIPAC, “Comprehensive US Sanctions against Iran: A Plan for Action,” April 2, 1995, cited in Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007), p. 187. 101. Dreyfuss, “AIPAC from the Inside”; Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, p. 188. 102. Author’s interview with Weissman. 103. Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, p. 186. 104. Telephone interview with , former deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East Affairs, London, August 2012. 105. Author’s interview with Weissman. NOTES 185

106. Robert Greenberger and Laurie Land, “Influencing Business Becomes AIPAC’s Affair,” Wall Street Journal Europe, June 18, 1996. 107. For a detailed account, see Paula Stern, Water’s Edge: Domestic Politics and the Making of American Foreign Policy (Greenwood, CT: Greenwood, 1979). 108. Thomas Franck and Edward Weisband, Foreign Policy by Congress (New York: Oxford University Press, 1979), pp. 200–209. 109. Dreyfuss, “AIPAC from the Inside.” 110. Ambrosio, “Entangling Alliances,” p. 153. 111. Fayazmanesh, United States and Iran, Chapter 5. 112. AIPAC avoids direct lobbying on issues not directly concerned with Israel; so, it offered “tacit support.” Ambrosio, “Entangling Alliances,’ p. 153. 113. Correspondence with former oil company executive. 114. Author’s interview with Rosen. 115. Robert Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy: Containment after the Cold War (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000), p. 107. 116. Shirl McArthur, “Luger, Crane, Reintroduce Sanctions Reforms, While Colleagues Earn Their Pro-Israel PAC Contributions,” Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, June 1999, http://www.wrmea.com/component /content/article/177/2251-lugar-crane-reintroduce-sanctions-reforms-while -colleagues-earn-their-pro-israel-pac-contributions.html, accessed February 20, 2012. 117. Fayazmanesh, United States and Iran, Chapter 5. 118. Meghan O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2003), p. 23. 119. Hersman, Friends and Foes, pp. 50–51. 120. Gene Linn, “Farmers Seek Spark in Grain Export Bottom Line,’ Journal of Commerce, January 27, 1999. 121. Lugar’s “Sanctions Policy Reform Act” in the Senate, and the “Enhancement of Trade, Security, and Human Rights through Sanctions Reform” in the House of Representatives. O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions, p. 22. 122. Carter and Scott, Choosing to Lead, pp. 162–63. 123. O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions, p. 23. 124. The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act stipulated that the president seek congressional approval before imposing unilateral sanc- tions that prevented the export of American food or medical supplies. See Dianne Rennack, “Economic Sanctions: Legislation in the 106th Congress,” Congressional Research Service, December 15, 2000. 125. Author’s interview with Ambassador Martin Indyk, former State Department and NSC official, Washington, DC, March 2012. 126. Ibid. 127. Author’s interview with Kenneth Pollack, former CIA and NSC official, Washington, DC, March 2012. 128. Ibid. 129. Parsi, Treacherous Alliance, pp. 196–200. 186 NOTES

130. Nancy Dunne, “Clinton Vetoes Sanctions Law,” Financial Times, June 25, 1998. 131. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower (New York: Basic Books, 2007), p. 102.

8 Conclusions and Intervening Variables Assessed

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Online Resources

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Interviews and Correspondence

Author’s email correspondence with Ambassador Edward Djerejian, former State Department official, December 2010. Author’s interview with Ambassador Chas Freeman, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Defense Department official, Washington, DC, February 2011. Author’s email correspondence with former oil company executive, May 2012. Author’s interview with Prof. James Goldgeier, Washington, DC, February 2011. BIBLIOGRAPHY 203

Author’s interview with Ambassador Martin Indyk, former State Department and NSC official, Washington, DC, March 2012. Author’s interview with Dr. Mark Lagon, former deputy director House Republican Policy Committee and former staff member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, DC, February 2011. Author’s interview with Ellen Laipson, former CIA, NSC, National Intelligence Council and State Department official, Washington, DC, February 2011. Author’s interview with Hillary Mann Leverett, former State Department and NSC official, Washington, DC, February 2011. Author’s correspondence with Thomas Lippman, reporter Washington Post, January 2013. Author’s interview with Kenneth Pollack, former CIA and NSC official, Washington, DC, March 2012. Author’s phone interview with Stephen Rademaker, former chief counsel to House of Representatives Committee on International Relations, Washington, DC, February 2011. Author interview with Bruce Riedel, former CIA, Defense Department, and NSC official, Washington, DC, February 2011. Author’s interview with Steve Rosen, former AIPAC official, Silver Springs, MD, March 2012. Author’s interview with Keith Weissman, former AIPAC official, Washington, DC, March 2012. Author’s telephone interview with David Welch, former deputy assistant secre- tary of state for Near East Affairs, London, August 2012. Author’s interview with Prof. Judith Yaphe, former CIA official, Washington DC, February 2011.

Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Ahrens, Frank, “The Reluctant Warrior: National Security Advisor Sandy Berger, a Onetime Dove Who Has Learned the Value of Claws,” Washington Post, February 24, 1998. Anonymous, “Iran Pointer to Better US Ties,” Financial Times, September 30, 1998. Boxer, Sarah, “Words for an Era: No Time Like the Present to Leave Something for Posterity,” New York Times, April 2, 1995. Connelly, Majorie, “The 1994 Elections; Portrait of the Electorate: Who Voted for Whom in the House,” New York Times, November 13, 1994. Corzine, Robert, “BP Ready to Invest in Iran If US Line Eases,” Financial Times, April 23, 1998. Dowd, Maureen, “Iran Is Reportedly Ready for a Deal to Recover Assets,” New York Times, August 9, 1989. Dunne, Nancy, “Clinton Vetoes Sanctions Law,” Financial Times, June 25, 1998. Greenberger, Robert, and Laurie Land, “Influencing Business Becomes AIPAC’s Affair,” Wall Street Journal Europe, June 18, 1996. 204 BIBLIOGRAPHY

Greenhouse, Steven, “Helms Seeks to Merge Foreign Policy Agencies,” New York Times, March 16, 1995. Hufbauer, Gary, “The Snake Oil of Diplomacy: When Sanctions Rise, the U.S. Peddles Sanctions,” Washington Post, July 12, 1998. Jehl, Douglas, “Oil Concern Ends a Deal with Iran as President Acts,” New York Times, March 14, 1995. Krauthammer, Charles, “Iran: Orchestra of Disorder,” Washington Post, January 1, 1993. Lelyveld, Michael, “Sanctions Lose Their Sting as US Obsession Grows,” Journal of Commerce, June 19, 1998. ———, “Clinton Makes Few Friends at Home on Sanctions Waiver,” Journal of Commerce, May 20, 1998. ———, “Last Minute Senate Maneuvering Stalls Sanctions Bill,” Journal of Commerce, October 9, 1998. Lewis, Bernard, “The Roots of Muslim Rage,” Atlantic Monthly, September 1990. Linn, Gene, “Farmers Seek Spark in Grain Export Bottom Line,” Journal of Commerce, January 27, 1999. Thomas Lippman, “Israel Presses US to Sanction Russian Missile Firms Aiding Iran,” Washington Post, September 25, 1997. Macfarquhar, Neil, “Exiles in ‘Tehrangeles’ Are Split on Iran,” New York Times, May 9, 2006. Reuters, “Gingrich, ‘Seeks to Topple Iranian Regime,’ ” Australian, December 12, 1995. Roberts, William, “Sanctions Flexibility Sought,” Journal of Commerce, June 25, 1998. Sanger, David, “Conoco Told U.S. Years Ago of Oil Negotiations with Iran,” New York Times, March 16, 1995. Samuelson, Robert J., “Changing the Mainstream,” Washington Post, November 30, 1994. Sciolino, Elaine, “Condemning Iranian Oil Deal, US May Tighten Trade Ban,” New York Times, March 10, 1995. Smith, R. Jeffrey, “U.S. Leans towards Tighter Iran Sanctions; Administration Willing to Work with GOP on Curtailing Foreign Trade,” Washington Post, November 10, 1995. Silverstein, Ken, “So You Want to Trade with a Dictator,” Mother Jones, June 1998, pp. 40–44, 86. Wright, Robin, “Clinton Encourages More Exchanges, Better Ties with Iran,” Los Angeles Times, January 30, 1998. Index

Afghanistan, 23, 25, 28–30, 73, 89 Carter administration Albright, Madeleine, 63–4, 71–4, 95 Carter Doctrine, 31–3, 79–80 Amanpour, Christiane, 73, 97 and hostage crisis, 73 American-Iranian Council (AIC), 137 and Iran, 66, 73, 82, 85 American Israel Public Affairs Central Command (CENTCOM), Committee (AIPAC), 15, 32, 63 123, 124, 150 Central Treaty Organization and the Iran-Libya Sanctions (CENTO). See Baghdad Pact Act, 138–41 Cheney, Dick, 137 and Khatami, 142–3 Chernomyrdin, Victor, 70 as part of “Israel lobby,” 127–33 China Anglo-Iranian Oil Company and the Iranian nuclear program, (AIOC), 26, 47, 136 71, 81, 139, 143–4 Annan, Kofi, 61 and UN Security Council, 61–2 Arab nationalism, 20, 39–40, 46–7, Christopher, Warren, 71, 73, 111 51, 92 Clinton administration Arab-Americans, 134–5 approach to Persian Gulf, Arafat, Yasser, 97 3, 5–6, 33, 53–5, 57–8, Asia Society, 73–4 63–8, 70, 112 Azerbaijan, 24, 81, 141 bureaucratic cooperation, 102–3 and Conoco deal, 72, 115 Baath Party, 48 and geoeconomics, 89–90, 137 Baghdad Pact, 22–3, 46, 48 and Iran sanctions, 115–20, Bahrain, 49, 51 137–9, 142–3, 149 Baker, James, 111 and Israel, 93–6, 139 Bakhtiar, Shapour, 69, 91 and peace process, 151 Barak, Ehud, 94 and political Islam, 87–8 Berger, Sandy, 64 and Rabin, 93–4 Blair, Tony, 70 relationship with Congress, Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 58, 118–19, 144 109–12, 115–20, 153 Bush administration (1988–91) response to election of and Iran, 55, 66, 85–6, 149 Khatami, 72–5, 97–9, and Iraq, 57, 59 120, 143, 151 and Persian Gulf, 53–5 response to Khobar Towers and political Islam, 87 bombing, 91 206 INDEX

Cold War criticism, 58–9 domination of US foreign policy, and Iran, 65–75 13–14, 18–19 and Iraq, 59–64 Gulf geopolitical structure, 36–8 naming of, 5 Gulf tripolar balance of power, 13, theoretical neglect, 2–3 35–8, 41–2, 46–52, 56, 75, 80, 148, 161n1 economic sanctions, 60, 84, 113–14, Gulf regional political factors, 139, 141–2 38–40 Eden, Anthony, 20 post Cold-War era, 1–4, 7, 12, Eisenhower administration, 20 14, 17, 26 Eisenhower Doctrine, 24–5, 27, 52 US Gulf interests, 17–21 overthrow of Mossadegh, 26–7, 47 US Gulf proxies, 21–3 Egypt US Twin Pillars policy, 23–33 and Arab nationalism, 22, 47 Congress and Baghdad Pact, 22 activism and dual containment, and Damascus Declaration, 51, 148 114–19 Mubarak, 88–9 foreign policy powers, 103–8 Nasser, 20–3, 25, 40, 47, 51 growth of activism and influence, and Saudi Arabia, 25, 40, 51–2 107–14 Suez Canal, 20, 22–3, 25 and lobbying groups, 58, 93, “tilt” toward USSR, 21 95, 138–45 and US aid, 92 sanctions on Iran, 115–20, and Yemen, 25, 52 137–43, 149 European Union, 68–70, 91, 116, See also Senate, US 118, 141 Conoco, 67, 72, 96, 115, 120, 137, executive orders, 66–7, 70, 74, 116, 140, 151 119, 137, 139 Constitution, US difference from legislation, 72, 118 role in foreign policy, 101, 103–7, 120 Federalist Papers, 124 separation of powers, 14, 101–4, foreign policy 106, 129 revisionist, 38–9, 43–4, 46, 48–9, 52 Corwin, Edwin, 104, 106–7, 118, 150 status quo, 38–44, 46–8, 52 Craig, Larry, 143 foreign policy analysis, 126 and neoclassical realism, 7, 9, 153 Damascus Declaration, 51, 148 and state autonomy, 8–9, 102 D’Amato, Alphonse, 67, 68, 115–16, 119, 139–40, 142 Gilman, Benjamin, 139 Defense Department, 8, 13, 103 Gingrich, Newt, 68, 111, 117 Dhahran US Air Force airbase, Gore, Al, 66, 70 24–5, 91 Grant, Ulysses S., 106 Djerejian, Edward, 56–7, 75, 88 Great Britain Dual Containment See announcement, 1, 55–7, 79, 88, 148 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Arab-Israeli peace process, 58, and dual containment policy, 93–7, 99, 141, 150–1 56, 147–9 INDEX 207

formation, 49–50 and Nixon administration, 27–8 and Saudi Arabia, 37, 41, 49–52, nuclear program, 3, 28, 71, 94–5, 147–8 139, 143–4, 154 and tripolar balance of power, 35, and political Islam, 86–92 148 and Rabin, 93–4, 141 Gulf War, 1, 3, 17, 26, 29–30, 50–9, and Reagan administration, 66, 78–81, 147–9, 151 84–5 and Russia, 47, 66, 70–1, 81, 95, Helms, Jesse, 112, 114 139, 143–4 Helms-Burton Libertad Act, 112, 138 sanctions against, 115–20, 137–9, Hezbollah, 74, 90, 96–7 142–3, 149 hostage crisis, 14, 31, 65, 73–4, 78, and US Twin Pillar policy, 26–8, 34 83–5, 92, 99, 151 Iran Foreign Oil Sanctions Act, 68, Huntington, Samuel, 86–7, 125 139 Iran Foreign Sanctions Act, 67, 116 Indyk, Martin Iran Missile Proliferation Sanctions article on US Middle East policy, Act (IMPSA), 70–1 78–9 Iran Nonproliferation Act, 71–2 on ILSA, 69 Iran Sanctions Act (ISA), 154 memoir by, 96–7 Iran-Contra, 30, 65, 81, 106 speech announcing dual impact on US-Iran ties, 85–6 containment, 55–7, 79, 88, 148 Iran-Iraq Nonproliferation Act, 66, 70 interest groups Iran-Iraq War, 23, 25–6, 29, 44, 46, business lobbies, 135–8 49–50, 54, 70 ethnic lobbies, 134–5 Tanker War, 32–3, 50–1, 79 and legislative outcomes, 138–44 and US “tilt” toward Iraq, 30, and neoclassical realism, 8–10, 15, 65, 81 123–4, 153 Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), oil lobbies, 135–7, 139, 141–2 68–76, 91, 112–14, 116, 118–19, pro-Arab lobby, 134, 136 137–44, 150, 154 pro-Israel lobby, 127–33 Iranian-Americans, 134–5 See also American Israel Public Iraq Affairs Committee (AIPAC) 1958 revolution International Atomic Energy Agency and Dual Containment, 59–64 (IAEA), 60–1, 71 geopolitical structure of Gulf, Iran 36–8 1979 revolution, 3, 23, 28–9, 31, 44, Gulf War, 1, 3, 17, 26, 29–30, 50–9, 48–9, 58, 65, 82, 85–6, 91, 151 78–81, 147–9, 151 and Bush administration, 55, 66, and Islam, 45–6 85–6, 149 sanctions against, 5, 14, 54, 57, and Carter administration, 66, 73, 59–62, 66, 80 82, 85 Treaty of Friendship and and Dual Containment, 65–75 Cooperation, 29, 48 geopolitical structure of Gulf, 36–8 US “tilt” toward, 30, 65, 81 and Islam, 43–4 See also Saddam Hussein and Netanyahu, 94–5, 144 Iraq Liberation Act (ILA), 63, 76, 117 208 INDEX

Israel Lake, Anthony, 88, 90 and Clinton administration, 93–6, 139 article on dual containment, and Jewish Americans, 130–1, 55–7, 79 138, 181n25 Lebanon, 8–9, 55, 57, 74, 85, 90, Netanyahu, 94–5, 144 96–7, 149 and peace process, 29, 57–8, 78, 86, Lewis, Bernard, 87 88, 93, 92–9, 138, 141, 151 Libya Peres, 93–4, 139 as backlash/rogue state, 55, 88, Rabin, Yitzhak, 93–4, 139, 141, 144 142–3 and US public opinion, 132–3 Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), See also American Israel Public 68–76, 91, 112–14, 116, 118–19, Affairs Committee (AIPAC); 137–44, 150, 154 pro-Israel lobby Likud Party, 82, 94–5, 138–9, 144 lobbies. See interest groups Jackson, Henry “Scoop,” 140 Lubrani, Uri, 95 Jackson-Vanik Amendment, 140 Lugar, Richard, 143 Japan, 19, 68–9, 116 Lugar-Hamilton-Crane Sanctions Jewish Americans Policy Reform Act, 137 demography and political participation, 119, 130–2, 135 Madison, James, 106, 124–5 support for Israel, 130–1, 138, 181n25 Madrid Conference, 97 Johnson administration, 27, 106 McCain, John, 66 McKinley, William, 106 Kenen, I. L., 136 Mossadegh, Mohammed, 26–7, 47 Kennedy administration, 27 Mubarak, Hosni, 88–9 Kennedy, Edward, 68, 91–2 Mutual Defense Assistance Act Khamenei, Ayatollah, 73, 91 (1949), 26 Kharrazi, Kamal, 73–4 Khatami, Mohammed Nasser, Gamal Abdul, 20–1 CNN interview, 73, 97–8 and Arab nationalism, 22, 47 election of, 72, 95–7 and Saudi Arabia, 25, 40, 51 and Iranian political system, 74–5 National Security Council, 1, 13, 55, and Khobar Towers bombing, 91 88, 90, 103, 175n131 and peace process, 97–8 neoclassical realism (NCR), 162n18 and US-Iranian relations, 73–4, 91, and coalition-building processes, 97–8, 119–20, 143–4, 151 7–10, 152 Kissinger, Henry, 27, 29 defined, 6–7 Khomeini, Ayatollah, 32, 42, 44 and domestic political structures, 7, Krauthammer, Charles, 87 9–10, 101–2, 152 Kuwait, 46 dual containment as, 6, 76 and Britain, 38 and foreign policy analysis, 7, 9, 153 and GCC, 49–51 and interest groups, 8–10, 15, and Gulf War, 1, 3, 17, 26, 29–30, 123–4, 153 32–5, 50–1, 54, 59, 80–1, 148–9 and perception, 7, 14, 77, 98 and post-1958 Iraq, 39, 48 relationship to realism, 6, 9–11 and “Tanker War,” 32, 79 “third wave” of works in, 77 INDEX 209

Netanyahu, Benjamin, 94–5, 144 post WWII littoral states, 40–6 Nixon administration tripolar balance of power, 13, 35–8, arms sales to Iran, 27–8 41–2, 46–52, 56, 75, 80, 148, 161n1 Nixon Doctrine, 23, 25, 27, 79 US proxies in, 21–3 No-Fly Zones (NFZs), 60–1 US Twin Pillars policy, 23–31 North American Free Trade “political Islam,” US policy toward, Agreement (NAFTA), 90 82, 86–9, 92–4, 152 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty pro-Israel lobby, 2, 10, 15, 26, 58, 95, (NPT), 60, 95 110, 124, 127–41, 144–5

October War (1973), 20, 25, 131 Qasim, Abd al-Karim, 48 oil Qatar, 49 Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), 26, 47, 136 Rabin, Yitzhak and the Cold War, 18–19 attitude to AIPAC, 139, 144 Conoco, 67, 72, 96, 115, 120, 137, and Clinton, 93 140, 151 and Iran, 93–4, 141 dependence of West and Japan, 19 Rafsanjani, Hashemi, 72, 85, 86, 91, oil lobbies, 135–7, 139, 141–2 96, 120, 151 Mobil, 137, 142 Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force National Iranian Oil Company (RDJTF), 31–2, 79 (NIOC), 140 Reagan administration Oman, 28, 32, 36, 47–9, 91 and Iran, 66, 84–5 Operation Ajax, 26, 81 and Iran-Iraq War, 32, 65 Operation Desert Fox, 62–3 and Iraq, 55, 65 Organization of Arab Petroleum Reagan Doctrine/Corollary, 32 Exporting Countries (OAPEC), and Saudi Arabia, 133, 136 20, 27 regime change, 65, 101, 111, 116–17, Organization of Islamic Cooperation 150–1, 154 (OIC), 97 containment versus, 5, 63–4 Organization of Petroleum Exporting and Iran, 5 Countries (OPEC), 21, 27 and Iraq, 5 Republican Party, 63, 103, 109–16, Pakistan, 22, 113 138–9, 142 peace process, 29, 57–8, 78, 86, 88, 93, Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 20, 24 92–9, 138, 141, 151 Rushdie, Salman, 69 Peres, Shimon, 93–4, 139 Russia Persian Gulf and Iran, 47, 66, 70–1, 81, 95, 139, 143–4 Cold War geopolitical structure, and Iraq, 61–2 36–8 See also Soviet Union Cold War regional political factors, 38–40 Saddam Hussein, 14, 33, 44–6, 117, 152 and Cold War US interests, 17–21 and Dual Containment, 54–5, 57, direct US intervention after 1979, 59, 61, 63–4 30–3 and Gulf War, 1, 3, 17, 26, 29–30, name of, 155n1 50–9, 78–81, 147–9, 151 210 INDEX

Santer, Jacques, 70 Soviet Union Saud, King, 20, 24, 40, 51 absence of Soviet threat, 3–4, Saudi Arabia 79–80, 99, 114, 148, 153 arms purchases from US, 25–6, 52, intervention in Afghanistan, 23, 133, 136 25, 28–30, 89 and GCC, 37, 41, 49–52, 147–8 and Iraq, 29, 33, 48 and Egypt, 40, 52 and Jackson-Vanik Amendment, geopolitical structure of Gulf, 36–8 140 government legitimacy, 41–2, 44 rivalry with United States, 18, 23, and Iraq, 46, 48–52 26, 29–30, 31, 48 and Islam, 41–2, 44 US containment policy toward, 4, Khobar Towers bombing, 73, 91, 98 18, 22–3, 31, 48, 80–1, 87, 92, 148 military power, 37, 52 State Department oil reserves, 37 “cautious welcome” to Taliban, 89 population, 36 and dual containment, 103 post WWII, 40–3, 46–52, 136 list of terrorist-sponsoring states, and Reagan Doctrine, 32 30, 73, 90–1 status quo policy of, 39–42, 44 and political Islam, 87 and “Tanker War,” 32, 50–1 and promotion of international and tripolar balance of power, 13, commerce, 90 35–8, 41–2, 56, 75, 80, 148 reorganization, 112 and US Lend-Lease, 20 Sudan, 88, 113, 142–3, 183n73 US relations, 21–2, 31–4, 65, Suez Canal, 20, 22–3, 25 136, 148–9 Syria, 51, 93, 96, 139, 148 and US Twin Pillars policy, 23–6, 31 Taliban, 89 Sciolino, Elaine, 55 Tanker War (Iran-Iraq War), 32–3, Scowcroft, Brent, 58, 111 50–1, 79 Senate, US Truman, Harry, 24, 26 1994 midterm elections, 109 Turkey, 18, 22, 69, 141 foreign policy powers, 103–5, 126 Twin Pillars policy, 23–4, 149 Foreign Relations Committee, 106, collapse of, 23, 34 108, 112 Iran, 26–8, 34 and sanctions backlash, 143 Iraq, 28–30 and US-Iranian trade, 67–70, Saudi Arabia, 24–6 112, 116, 130 September 11, 2001 terrorist United Arab Emirates (UAE), 47, 49 attacks, 1–2, 133 United Kingdom shah and Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 47 admission to the US, 83 and Baghdad Pact, 22 arms purchases from United dominance in Gulf, 5, 38 States, 27 and Kuwait, 38, 48 overthrow of, 47, 82 and Operation Desert Fox, 61–2 regional policy, 25, 28–9, 43–4, and overthrow of Mossadegh, 26–7 47–9, 81 and Saudi Arabia, 24 Six-Day War (1967), 21, 131 and Suez Crisis, 20, 22 INDEX 211

and US Lend-Lease program, 24 US Navy as US proxy in Persian Gulf, 21–2, clashes with Iranian navy, 32 31, 34, 148 Fifth Fleet headquarters in War of 1812, 106 Bahrain, 51 withdrawal from Persian Gulf, Operation Praying Mantis, 50 22–3, 27, 31, 34 presence in Persian Gulf, 30–1 United Nations USS Vincennes, 32 6+2 Group, 73 Monitoring Verification, and Vietnam War, 23, 77, 106, 103, 113, Inspection Committee 120, 126 (UNMOVIC), 62 Republic Party and, 109, 112 Weapons of Mass Destruction sanctions on Iraq, 5, 14, 54, 57, (WMD), 5, 65, 78, 90 59–62, 66, 80 Weissman, Keith, 141 Security Council resolutions, 60–2 White Revolution, 27 Special Commission (UNSCOM), 60–2, 64 Yemen, 25, 36, 48, 52 Truman and, 24 weapons inspectors, 14, 59–60 Zinni, Anthony, 63