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Demographics and Retail Market Assessment THE CITY OF GRANDVIEW, MISSOURI – COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Chapter Two – Demographics and Retail Market Assessment CHAPTER TWO – DEMOGRAPHICS AND RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT POPULATION TRENDS National and Regional The US Census Bureau's 2000 census brief stated that the United States' 1990 to 2000 population increase of 32.7 million was the largest in American history. The previous record increase was 28.0 million people between 1950 and 1960, a gain fueled primarily by the post-World War II baby boom (1946 to 1964). Total decennial population rate of growth declined steadily in the three decades following the 1950s' peak before rising again in the 1990s. Population growth varied significantly by region in the 1990s, with higher rates in the West (19.7%) and South (17.3%) and much lower rates in the Midwest (7.9%) and Northeast (5.5%). Meanwhile, despite overall population growth in each of the past five decades, the Midwest ’s share of total United States' population fell from 29% to 23 %. City of Grandview Population Growth Comparisons According to the 2000 census, the City of Grandview’s population is 24,881 a decrease of 54 people (less than 1%) from the 1990 census (Ref. Table 1, Fig. 1). A comparison with a "Control Group" of similar by sized and situated cities in the region show similar trends of stable or declining populations in most first-ring suburban cities. During the 1990s, with the exception of Belton, MO, which increased in population by over 20%, all other cities in the “Control Group” either lost population or experienced a marginal increase of less than 1%. Jackson County registered an increase of over 21,000 people, (3.4%) during the 1990’s while the Kansas City Metro Area grew by 12.2%, which is 4% higher than the average for the Midwest region. While higher growth rates have been registered in other parts of the metro area in second-ring suburbs, Grandview has proven itself to be a stable community during the 1980s and 1990s following a 1960-1980 high growth period. K:\2000-425\Wpc\Reports\Comp Plan May 02.doc 7 May 2002 THE CITY OF GRANDVIEW, MISSOURI – COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Chapter Two – Demographics and Retail Market Assessment Table 1: Total Population Comparisons (1970-2000) % Change % Change % Change 1970 1980 1990 2000 70-80 80-90 90-00 Grandview, MO 17,381 24,497 24,935 24,881 40.94% 1.79% -0.22% Belton, MO 13,066 13,633 18,106 21,730 4.34% 32.81% 20.02% Ferguson, MO 28,502 24,423 22,316 22,406 -14.31% -8.63% 0.40% Gladstone, MO 23,919 25,444 26,222 26,365 6.38% 3.06% 0.55% Prairie Village, KS 27,918 24,543 23,150 22,072 -12.09% -5.68% -4.66% Raytown, MO 33,909 31,911 30,595 30,388 -5.89% -4.12% -0.68% Jackson County, MO 653,165 628,936 633,232 654,880 -3.71% 0.68% 3.42% Kansas City MSA 1,327,266 1,381,915 1,511,740 1,695,764 4.12% 9.39% 12.17% Missouri 4,655,960 4,906,764 5,117,073 5,595,211 5.39% 4.29% 9.34% US 201,606,786 224,810,186 248,709,166 281,421,906 11.51% 10.63% 13.15% Source: US Census Bureau, BWR Corp. Between 1970 and 2000, the population of the City of Grandview increased by about 43% and that of the Kansas City Metropolitan Statistical Area by about 28%. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) as a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of social and economic integration with that core.1 Growth indices, which are a means of comparison of growth rates of different entities, assuming the base population of 1 for each entity, show that most of the growth in Grandview occurred between 1970 and 1980. The decade of the 1990s saw most of the metro area growth in the second and third-ring suburbs. In spite of the slight decline in Grandview's population during the 1990s, future residential development in Grandview should result in moderate increases in population while current population forecasts show that the Kansas City MSA is likely to experience even more growth in the near future. 1 The Kansas City MSA includes 11 counties: Johnson, Kansas; Leavenworth, Kansas; Miami, Kansas; Wyandotte, Kansas; Cass Missouri; Clay, Missouri; Clinton, Missouri; Jackson, Missouri; Lafayette, Missouri; Platte, Missouri; and Ray Missouri. K:\2000-425\Wpc\Reports\Comp Plan May 02.doc 8 May 2002 THE CITY OF GRANDVIEW, MISSOURI – COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Chapter Two – Demographics and Retail Market Assessment Figure 1: Growth Indices Comparison (1970-2000) 1.75 1.50 x 1.25 1.00 Growth Inde 0.75 0.50 1970 1980 1990 2000 Grandview, MO Average of Control Cities Jackson County, MO Missouri US Source: US Census Bureau, BWR Corp, RACIAL CHARACTERISTICS The racial composition of Grandview changed considerably between 1980 and 2000. In 1980 about 90% of the population in Grandview was white. In 2000 that percentage dropped to 62%. At the same time minority population increased from 9% to 38% (Ref. Table 2 Figure 2). Most of the numerical increase in minority population was in the African-American community. While the highest percentage increase was in the Hispanic community, with a 121% increase between 1990 and 2000. However, the Hispanic community, as a percentage of the total population, is only 4.3%. The Control Cities show a similar racial trend, though to a lesser degree. K:\2000-425\Wpc\Reports\Comp Plan May 02.doc 9 May 2002 THE CITY OF GRANDVIEW, MISSOURI – COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Chapter Two – Demographics and Retail Market Assessment Table 2: Racial Characteristics: Comparisons: (1980-2000) Black or African- Other Hispanic White American Population Origin * 1980 Grandview, MO 90.20% 8.00% 1.80% 1.60% Average of Control Cities 95.13% 3.58% 1.29% 1.24% Jackson County, MO 77.60% 20.00% 2.40% 2.60% Missouri 88.40% 10.50% 1.10% 0.40% US 83.10% 11.70% 5.20% 6.50% 1990 Grandview, MO 81.10% 16.80% 2.10% 2.00% Average of Control Cities 92.23% 6.02% 1.75% 1.79% Jackson County, MO 75.60% 21.40% 3.00% 3.00% Missouri 87.70% 10.70% 1.60% 0.80% US 80.30% 12.00% 7.70% 8.80% 2000 Grandview, MO 62.20% 35.20% 2.60% 4.30% Average of Control Cities 84.09% 14.09% 1.82% 2.76% Jackson County, MO 71.90% 24.20% 3.90% 5.40% Missouri 86.10% 11.70% 2.20% 2.10% US 75.14% 12.32% 12.54% 12.56% Source: US Census Bureau, BWR Corp. * Hispanic Origin represents ethnicity and not race. Therefore, these numbers are already included in other columns Table 3: Racial Characteristics: City of Grandview, MO (1980-2000) Black or Total African- Other Hispanic Population White American Population Origin * 1980 24,497 22,090 1,952 455 384 1990 24,935 20,230 4,194 511 487 2000 24,881 15,467 8,763 651 1,077 absolute change 80-90 438 -1,860 2,242 56 103 absolute change 90-00 -54 -4,763 4,569 140 590 % change 80-90 1.79% -8.42% 114.86% 12.31% 26.82% % change 90-00 -0.22% -23.54% 108.94% 27.40% 121.15% Source: US Census Bureau, BWR Corp. * Hispanic Origin represents ethnicity and not race. Therefore, these numbers are already included in the other columns K:\2000-425\Wpc\Reports\Comp Plan May 02.doc 10 May 2002 THE CITY OF GRANDVIEW, MISSOURI – COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Chapter Two – Demographics and Retail Market Assessment Figure 2: Trends in Minority Population (1990-2000) 40.00% 35.20% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 16.80% 20.00% 10.70% 15.00% 11.70% 10.00% 2.10% 2.60% 5.00% 2.00% 4.30% 1.60% 2.20% Black or African- American 0.00% 0.80% 2.10% Other Population 1990 2000 Hispanic Origin 1990 2000 GRANDVIEW, MO JACKSON COUNTY Source: US Census Bureau , BWR Corp. Male-Female Ratio Trends The male-female ratio in Grandview has changed slightly during the 1980s and 1990s resulting in a minor increase in the number of females as outlined in Table 4. Table 4: Male Female Ratio (1980-2000) Change in % from previous Census Males Females Males Females 1980 Grandview, MO 49.50% 50.50% Average of Control Cities 48.10% 51.90% Jackson County, MO 47.40% 52.60% Missouri 48.10% 51.90% US 48.50% 51.50% 1990 Grandview, MO 49.50% 50.50% 0.00% 0.00% Average of Control Cities 47.33% 52.67% -1.61% 1.49% Jackson County, MO 47.50% 52.50% 0.21% -0.19% Missouri 48.20% 51.80% 0.21% -0.19% US 48.70% 51.30% 0.41% -0.39% 2000 Grandview, MO 48.20% 51.80% -2.63% 2.57% Average of Control Cities 47.04% 52.96% -0.60% 0.54% Jackson County, MO 48.20% 51.80% 1.47% -1.33% Missouri 48.60% 51.40% 0.83% -0.77% US 49.10% 50.90% 0.82% -0.78% Source: US Census Bureau, BWR Corp. K:\2000-425\Wpc\Reports\Comp Plan May 02.doc 11 May 2002 THE CITY OF GRANDVIEW, MISSOURI – COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Chapter Two – Demographics and Retail Market Assessment Median Age Trends Changes in the median age are important indicators of the shift in population composition and can be used to establish target age groups to plan for.
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