18 August 2020

Daily Outlook GLOBAL STOCK INDEX

The Nasdaq surged to a record high close on Monday, while the S&P 500 approached its own record level, with both indexes lifted by Nvidia and other technology stocks. The benchmark S&P 500 reached just shy of its Feb. 19 intraday record high after testing that level for much of last week, while the Dow Jones was weighed down by losses in financial and industrial stocks. Nvidia Corp was among the top boosts to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq for the day, surging 6.7% to a record high after two analysts raised their price targets ahead of the chipmaker’s quarterly results on Wednesday. In June, the Nasdaq became the first of the major Wall Street indexes to recoup its coronavirus-induced losses as several of its largest constituents, including Amazon.com Inc and Netflix Inc, benefited from curbs on social activity. Lowe’s Cos Inc and Home Depot Inc each rose more than 2% rose ahead of their earnings later in the week. The two home improvement chains are expected to have received a bump to their quarterly sales from consumers looking to do minor repair work while spending more time at home. The S&P 500 retailing index climbed 1.4%, with heavyweights Walmart Inc and Target Corp also set to DJIA report results this week. Rackspace Technology jumped over 10% after Reuters reported Amazon is in early talks to invest in the cloud services provider. As of Friday, 457 companies in the S&P 500 had posted results, of which 81.4% came in above dramatically lowered expectations, according to Refinitiv data. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, due on Wednesday, are expected to provide more insight into the central bank’s view of an economic recovery, while housing starts data is also on tap. Caution is expected to seep into markets ahead of the November U.S. presidential vote, as the election season kicks into higher gear with the Democratic National Convention, which runs Monday through Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to end at 27,844.91 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.27% to 3,381.99. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1% to 11,129.73, its fifth closing high this month. Seven of the 11 major S&P sectors rose, with technology providing the biggest support to the S&P 500 index. Japanese stocks fell on Monday by the most in over two weeks after data showed the country’s economy shrank at a record pace in the second quarter as the COVID-19 pandemic crimped consumer spending. Investors took the data in their stride and locked in profits as the economy slowly emerges from lockdowns. Markets did not react to a domestic media report that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has entered hospital for an examination. Industrial and healthcare stocks pulled down the Nikkei 225 Index 0.83% to 23,096.75, its biggest one- day fall since July 31. The broader Topix was down 0.84%. Nikkei Some investors sold shares of companies that recently reported favourable earnings. Others booked profits on companies in health care and technology that have risen sharply due to expectations that these sectors would benefit from the pandemic. The underperformers among the top 30 Topix names were job placement company Recruit Holdings Co Ltd, down 3.17%, followed by drugs maker Daiichi Sankyo Co Ltd, losing 2.21%. The Topix 30 stocks that gained the most were industrial conglomerate Hitachi Ltd, up 1.15%, followed by Honda automaker Motor Co Ltd, gaining 0.7%. Kospi South Korean financial markets are closed for a national holiday.  Hong Kong shares marked their highest close in nearly four weeks on Monday, tracking a regional rise after China’s central bank provided more medium-term loans to the country’s financial system. At the close of trade, the Hang Seng Index was up 178.92 points or 0.71% at 25,505.82, its highest close since July 21. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index rose 1.29% to 10,450.56. The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 1.4%, while the IT sector dipped 0.27%, and the financial sector Hang Seng & ended 1.15% higher. China’s central bank issued medium-term loans worth 700 billion yuan ($100.86 billion) to financial institutions on Monday, rolling over 550 billion yuan of such loans maturing in Shanghai August and injecting a further 150 billion. It left borrowing costs unchanged. Shares of securities firms followed their counterparts on the mainland higher, after the Shenzhen Stock Exchange said on Friday that the first batch of companies registered for listing on Shenzhen’s ChiNext start-up board under a revamped initial public offering system will make their debuts on Aug. 24. The move is expected to lift brokerage firms’ valuations.

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18 August 2020

 China shares closed at their highest in more than a month on Monday after the central bank injected fresh funds into the country’s financial system, with securities firms rallying on hopes for a lift from capital market reforms. At the close, the Shanghai Composite index was up 2.34% at 3,438.80 and the blue-chip CSI300 index added 2.35%. Both indexes notched their highest closes since July 13. The financial sector sub-index ended 3.58% higher, propelled by securities firms, which gained 5.07%. Brokerages’ shares rose after Shenzhen Stock Exchange said on Friday that the first batch of companies registered for listing on Shenzhen’s ChiNext start-up board under a revamped initial public offering system will make their debuts on Aug. 24. Further bolstering sentiment, China’s central bank issued medium-term loans worth 700 billion yuan ($100.86 billion) to financial institutions on Monday, rolling over 550 billion yuan of such loans maturing in August and injecting a further 150 billion. It left borrowing costs unchanged.

Closing Prices – 17 August 2020

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE .DJI 27844.91  86.11/0.31% .N225 23096.75  192.61/0.83% /.SPX 3381.99  9.14/0.27% .KS200 HOLIDAY  30.04/1.23% /.IXIC 11129.73  110.42/1.00% .HSI 25347.34  164.33/0.65% JPY= 106.04  0.56/0.53% /.SSEC 3438.80  78.70/2.34% KRW= 1185.03  0.48/0.04% /CLc1 (Oil) 42.80  0.60/1.42%

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18 August 2020

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

FORECAS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL PREV. REV. T 12-Aug - 18-Aug N/A CN Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Jul -- 7.1% Mon/17-Aug-20 05:30 NZ Performance Services Index Jul 54.3 -- 54.3 All KR Bank Holiday (Liberation Day) 06:01 GB Rightmove House Prices MoM Aug -0.2% -- 0.71% -0.2% 06:01 GB Rightmove House Prices YoY Aug -- 27.9% 06:50 JP GDP Annualized SA QoQ 2Q P -27.8% -27.2% -11.9% -2.5% 06:50 JP GDP Business Spending QoQ 2Q P -4.1% 17.2 06:50 JP GDP Deflator YoY 2Q P -27.8% -27.2%% -2.2% 06:50 JP GDP Nominal SA QoQ 2Q P -1.5% -4.2% 1.7% 06:50 JP GDP Private Consumption QoQ 2Q P -8.2% -7.1% 0.9% -0.8% 06:50 JP GDP SA QoQ 2Q P -7.8% -7.6% -0.5% -0.6% 17-Aug - 19-Aug N/A HK Composite Interest Rate Jul -- -- 11:30 JP Capacity Utilization MoM Jun 6.2% -- -0.8% -11.6% 11:30 JP Industrial Production MoM Jun F 1.9% 2.7% -0.6% -8.9% 11:30 JP Industrial Production YoY Jun F -18.2% -17.7% 2.7% -26.3% 16:00 EZ Construction Output MoM Jun -- -17.7% 16:00 EZ Construction Output YoY Jun -- 72 19:30 US Empire Manufacturing Aug 3.70 15 54.1 17.20 21:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 78 73 72 Tue/18-Aug-20 08:30 AU RBA Minutes of Aug. Policy Meeting 19:30 US Building Permits Jul 1325k 1241k 19:30 US Building Permits MoM Jul 5.3% 2.1% 19:30 US Housing Starts Jul 1230k 1186k 19:30 US Housing Starts MoM Jul 3.7% 17.3% Wed/19-Aug-20 05:45 NZ PPI Input QoQ 2Q -- -0.3% 05:45 NZ PPI Output QoQ 2Q -- 0.1% 06:50 JP Core Machine Orders MoM Jun -- 1.7% 06:50 JP Core Machine Orders YoY Jun -- -16.3% 06:50 JP Exports YoY Jul -- -26.2% 06:50 JP Imports YoY Jul -- -14.4% 06:50 JP Trade Balance Jul -- -¥268.8b 06:50 JP Trade Balance Adjusted Jul -- -¥423.9b 07:30 AU Westpac Leading Index MoM Jul -- 0.44% 19-Aug - 25-Aug N/A GB CBI Trends Selling Prices Aug -- 4 19-Aug - 25-Aug N/A GB CBI Trends Total Orders Aug -- -46 13:00 GB CPI Core YoY Jul -- 1.4% 13:00 GB CPI MoM Jul -- 0.1% 13:00 GB CPI YoY Jul -- 0.6% 13:00 GB CPIH YoY Jul -- 0.8% 13:00 GB PPI Input NSA MoM Jul -- 2.4% 13:00 GB PPI Input NSA YoY Jul -- -6.4% 13:00 GB PPI Output Core NSA MoM Jul -- 0.0% 13:00 GB PPI Output Core NSA YoY Jul -- 0.5% 13:00 GB PPI Output NSA MoM Jul -- 0.3% 13:00 GB PPI Output NSA YoY Jul -- -0.8% 13:00 GB Retail Price Index Jul -- 292.7 13:00 GB RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) Jul -- 1.30% 13:00 GB RPI MoM Jul -- 0.2% 13:00 GB RPI YoY Jul -- 1.1% 15:00 EZ ECB Current Account SA Jun -- 8.0b 15:30 GB House Price Index YoY Jun -- -- 15:30 HK Unemployment Rate SA Jul -- 6.2% 16:00 EZ CPI Core YoY Jul F -- 1.2% 16:00 EZ CPI MoM Jul F -- -0.3% 16:00 EZ CPI YoY Jul F -- 0.3% 19:30 CA Consumer Price Index Jul -- 137.2 19:30 CA CPI Core- Common YoY% Jul -- 1.5% 19:30 CA CPI Core- Median YoY% Jul -- 1.9% 19:30 CA CPI Core- Trim YoY% Jul -- 1.8% 19:30 CA CPI NSA MoM Jul -- 0.8% 19:30 CA CPI YoY Jul -- 0.7% 21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Aug-14 -- 1336k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Aug-14 -- -4512k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Aug-14 -- -2322k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Aug-14 -- -722k Thu/20-Aug-20 01:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes Jul-29 -- --

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18 August 2020

13:00 CH Exports Real MoM Jul -- 7.9% 13:00 CH Imports Real MoM Jul -- 5.5% 13:00 DE PPI MoM Jul -- 0.0% 13:00 DE PPI YoY Jul -- -1.8% 13:30 CH Industrial Output WDA YoY 2Q -- 0.8% 13:30 CH Industry & Construction Output WDA YoY 2Q -- 0.8% 15:30 HK CPI Composite YoY Jul -- 0.7% 18:30 EZ ECB July Monetary Policy Meeting Account 19:30 CA ADP Releases Payroll Data 19:30 US Continuing Claims Aug-08 -- -- 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Aug-15 -- -- 19:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Aug 21 24.1 21:00 US Leading Index Jul 1% 2% Fri/21-Aug-20 00:00 US Fed’s Daly Discusses the New Future of Work 04:00 KR PPI YoY Jul -- -0.9% 06:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Composite Aug P -- 57.8 06:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Mfg Aug P -- 54 06:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Services Aug P -- 58.2 06:01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Aug P -- -- 06:30 JP Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Jul -- 0.0% 06:30 JP Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY Jul -- 0.4% 06:30 JP Natl CPI YoY Jul -- 0.1% 07:00 KR Exports 20 Days YoY Aug -- -12.8% 07:00 KR Imports 20 Days YoY Aug -- -13.7% 07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Composite Aug P -- 44.9 07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Mfg Aug P -- 45.2 07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Services Aug P -- 45.4 08:30 AU ABS Australia Preliminary July Retail Sales 13:00 GB Central Government NCR Jul -- 47.1b 13:00 GB PSNB ex Banking Groups Jul -- 35.5b 13:00 GB Public Finances (PSNCR) Jul -- 44b 13:00 GB Public Sector Net Borrowing Jul -- 34.8b 13:00 GB Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM Jul -- 13.5% 13:00 GB Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY Jul -- 1.7% 13:00 GB Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM Jul -- 13.9% 13:00 GB Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY Jul -- -1.6% 14:30 DE Markit Germany Services PMI Aug P -- 55.6 14:30 DE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Aug P -- 55.3 14:30 DE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug P -- 51 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Aug P -- 54.9 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug P -- 51.8 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Services PMI Aug P -- 54.7 15:30 GB Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Aug P -- 53.3 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Aug P -- 57 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Aug P -- 56.5 19:30 CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jun -- 10.6% 19:30 CA Retail Sales MoM Jun -- 18.7% 20:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Aug P -- 50.3 20:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Aug P -- 50.9 20:45 US Markit US Services PMI Aug P -- 50 21:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Aug A -- -15 21:00 US Existing Home Sales Jul 5.30m 4.72m 21:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Jul 12.3% 20.7% Sat/22-Aug-20 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Aug-21 -- --

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18 August 2020

Dow Jones (DJ – SEP) Exp. Date: 18 Sep 2020 28076 RESISTANCE 27999 27885

27694 SUPPORT 27617 27503

BUY --- @researchvaf @rekhmen SELL 27800 SUGGESTION S/L 27900

27625 T/P: 27500

CHANGE DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE VOLUME % 17 Aug 27838 27923 27732 191 27770 27770  21 0.08 --

WEEKLY AUGUST 2020 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 27923 (17/Aug) 27732 (17/Aug) 28060 (11/Aug) 26194 (03/Aug) 29539 (13/Feb) 18768 (18/Mar)

Nikkei (NIK – SEP) Exp. Date: 10 September 2020 23412 RESISTANCE 23323 23227

23042 SUPPORT 22953 @researchvaf 22857 @rekhmen BUY 23100 SELL --- SUGGESTION S/L 23000 23275 T/P: 23400

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE CHANGE% VOLUME

17 Aug 23160 23235 23050 185 23130 23130  Flat Flat --

WEEKLY AUGUST 2020 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 23235 (17/Aug) 23050 (17/Aug) 23340 (14/Aug) 21865 (03/Aug) 24100 (17/Jan) 15860 (16/Mar)

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18 August 2020

Kospi 200 (KOS – SEP) Exp. Date: 10 September 2020 328.18 RESISTANCE 325.37 322.03

315.88 SUPPORT 313.07 @researchvaf 309.73 @rekhmen BUY ---

SELL 319.00 SUGGESTION S/L 321.00 315.50 T/P: 313.00

CHANGE DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE VOLUME % 17 Aug -- H O L I D A Y --

WEEKLY AUGUST 2020 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 326.20 (13/Aug) 311.45 (10/Aug) 326.20 (13/Aug) 297.30 (03/Aug) 326.20 (13/Aug) 194.70 (19/Mar)

Hang Seng (HAS – AUG) Exp. Date: 27 Aug 2020 26039 RESISTANCE 25806 25615

25191 SUPPORT 24958 24767

@researchvaf BUY 25395 @rekhmen SELL --- SUGGESTION S/L 25245 25645 T/P: 25795

CHANGE DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE VOLUME % 17 Aug 25182 25572 25148 424 25289 25289  206 0.82 --

WEEKLY AUGUST 2020 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 25572 (17/Aug) 25148 (17/Aug) 25572 (17/Aug) 24150 (07/Aug) 29219 (14/Jan) 20961 (19/Mar)

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18 August 2020

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