Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Mediterranean Migration: Premises for Shaping Future Policies

EuroMedMig Policy Paper Series Number 1, December 2019

Prepared by Ricard Zapata-Barrero, Karina Melkonian and Gülce Şafak Özdemir EuroMedMig, GRITIM-UPF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

This Policy Paper is the summary of an Expert Meeting on the “Deep roots of migration, environmental and climate change: Exploring emerging drivers of human mobility in the Mediterranean” co-organized by the Union for the Mediterranean and GRITIM-UPF (EuroMedMig) on December 17th 2019, and held at the Union for the Mediterranean´s Headquarters in Barcelona (the agenda and list of participants are in sections V and VI). We have added a conceptual framework of the debate (you may find the references in section IV). During the meeting, Experts and Scholars exchanged their research agenda on both Mediterranean migration (MedMig, from EuroMedMig Network) and climate change (from the network of Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change; network of Mediterranean Coastal Cities; Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area; Global Institute for Water, Environment and Health). Through facilitating knowledge exchange, the event produced a better definition, assessment and identification in relation to climate change and environmental degradation as possible future drivers of MedMig. The objective of this Policy Paper is to summarize the premises put forward during this meeting with the purpose of sharing what was considered as substantial policy-relevant arguments with a larger audience. The views and opinions reproduced do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Union for the Mediterranean and of the Experts.

Contents

I. Conceptual framework of the meeting: A much needed debate on climate change, environmental degradation and Mediterranean migration ...... 3 1. Premises guiding the debate ...... 4 2. Mapping the terms of the debate within Mediterranean migration studies ...... 5 II. Meeting summary: Guiding arguments ...... 7 1. Lack of evidence linking migration and climate change, and lack of evidence on climate change and its policy effects ...... 7 2. Distinctive features of the Mediterranean as a region affected by climate change and environmental degradation ...... 8 3. Climate change and environmental degradation as induced drivers of Mediterranean migration: Multi-causality and mixed migration ...... 8 4. Development, resilience and Mediterranean migration as an end stage process of the response to environmental degradation ...... 10 5. The governance of climate change and human Med-mobilities: Multi-variable and multi-scale approaches are necessary ...... 11 III. Concluding remarks: Final recommendations ...... 12 IV. References ...... 13 V. Expert Meeting’s agenda ...... 18 VI. List of Experts (presented in alphabetical order) ...... 19

Suggested citation:

Zapata-Barrero, R., Melkonian, K. and Özdemir, G.S. (prepared by) (2019) “Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Mediterranean Migration: Premises for Shaping Future Policies.” EuroMedMig Policy Paper Series, no. 1 (December): http://hdl.handle.net/10230/43617

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non- commercial 4.0 International License. Click here to view a copy of this license.

I. Conceptual framework of the meeting: A much needed debate on climate change, environmental degradation and Mediterranean migration

There are many forces driving migration including economic, political, social, demographic, conflict-related and environmental factors. As it was highlighted during the Expert Meeting, considering environmental degradation and climate change as the only reasons for migration is highly challenging because this concept is implicitly or explicitly inter-related to other factors such as socio-economic stability, conflicts and human security. These factors should be addressed in the major subregions of the Mediterranean, in line with the Valetta Declaration on Innovation and Research in the Euro Mediterranean region (Ministerial meeting 2017), approved by UfM Ministers of Research, which upheld “the key role that research and innovation play in developing an understanding of the root causes of migration and the inter-dependencies between different drivers of migration including economic, political, social, demographic, conflict-related and environmental drivers.” In this context, there is a need to deepen the understanding of the potential impacts of environmental degradation and climate change on human migration behavior, particularly spatial mobility within the Mediterranean. At this point, we should shed light on some facts regarding environmental changes to have a clear understanding of why people migrate.  While the forecast for the sea level is up to 1 meter (or more), the anticipated temperature increase is 2.2°C above pre-industrial levels.  The sea level and temperature are projected to increase by 2100 in the Mediterranean.  Urban populations in countries around the Mediterranean Sea increased from 152 million to 315 million between 1970 and 2010 (an average rate of 1.9 % per year). It is expected that by 2030, the Mediterranean Basin will be the global biodiversity hotspot with the highest percentage of urban land (5%). As the last point explicitly shows, environmental factors evolve in relation to other elements such as the rapidly growing urbanization (city growth) of the Mediterranean coasts, notably in the South and the East. Therefore, as it was mentioned in the Expert Meeting, before cross-border migration, the general pattern is that people tend to migrate internally. This internal migration from rural to urban areas is directly and/or indirectly related to environmental changes. In this sense, sustainable development as a regional solution to understanding the deep roots of human displacement should increasingly focus on placing the people and their demands at the heart of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation. In addition to focusing on migration and integration within the Euro-Mediterranean area, coordinated and collaborative approaches among Mediterranean cities and sub-regions in the Mediterranean should also be encouraged.

1. Premises guiding the debate

Recently, climate change and environmental degradation are at the top of uncertainty and risks for personal and mass displacements in the Mediterranean. This emerging issue is slowly penetrating into most of the Mediterranean Migration (MedMig) research agendas today. One of the great features of climate change is that it forces us to think of MedMig in a long-term perspective. Today, most of the research is contingent upon policy agenda and trapped by urgent challenges. Climate change and environmental degradation motivate us to work with an anticipatory logic, following a scenario-building methodology. To this end, it provides us with an opportunity to incorporate this issue into current MedMig policies at the EU, Mediterranean states/regions and city levels. What also becomes important is that the Mediterranean is definitively incorporated as a category of analysis in its geographical, regional and even geo-political dimension. In this sense, MedMig thinking involves speaking about trans-Med mobility, Med- population distribution and Med-reconfiguration. The interest is in exploring how climate change may have an impact on social, political and economic change, and on how societies incorporate this new environmental factor into their everyday agenda and social behavior. Since today, climate change and environmental degradation are definitely one of the main factors of uncertainty in MedMig governance. Their incorporation into MedMig studies compels migration scholars to address some substantial methodological and epistemological issues related not only to the objectivity of data, but also on how to produce quality-related knowledge on climate change and environmental degradation in migration studies. Another preliminary premise is that the Mediterranean is/will be a regional issue of undisputable common concern. However, as it always happens, sharing a common concern does not necessarily mean sharing a common diagnosis and solution. This is why the promotion of debates and research is necessary, to continue preparing the path of anticipation and reflection, and see what future scenarios we can expect. Recently, migration studies are exploring whether there is a link between climate change, environmental degradation and migration. Human migration is potentially influenced by environmental factors, but ultimately shaped by a complexity of forces including social, economic and cultural processes. The common assumption is that it is a

multi-causal phenomenon with high “cascade effects” at the social, economic and political levels. This debate is no older than 10 years. The Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Cancun (COP 16) held in December 2010, was a key moment in placing this issue into the Global Agenda with a first recognition of the potential impacts of climate change on people’s mobilities. The Convention signatory governments were invited to implement the following adaptation initiatives: “measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at national, regional and international levels” (§ 14(f)). Even if we may acknowledge everything is already included in this declaration (induced displacement, planned relocation, coordination and cooperation, and multi-scale approach), the multi- faceted view of this issue, combining all the areas of social sciences (social, political, legal and anthropological points of view, including economy) would also be required to complete the first framework for a debate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) identified the Mediterranean region as a climate change “hot spot,” with most countries of the Eastern Mediterranean already experiencing temperature rises, accompanied by growing rates of desertification, increases in freshwater scarcity, forest fires, and an increase in the frequency of droughts. Thus, we need more scientific data to better asses how this Med- ecosystem change may affect Med-societies and Med-governments, while searching for anticipatory policies to prevent potential negative effects such as increasing inequalities between countries. In this respect, the Global Compact on Migration (GCM, 2018) follows the two main approaches to deal with climate change-related human displacements: “adaptation” and “protection”. What also became assumed in the meeting is that climate change puts human security at the top of the MedMig agenda, together with refugees. The Northern/Southern and Eastern/Western cleavages again become an analysis criterion to distinguish sub-regions and vulnerabilities in terms of adaption and survival capacities in increasing hostile environments.

2. Mapping the terms of the debate within Mediterranean migration studies

In thinking about emerging drivers of Med-mobility, the resource-based approach must prevail over any other considerations. This approach might allow us to better handle this new issue, since there is not one, but many complex inter-related factors inducing people to migrate. This view also enables us to build a subsistence narrative. What are the minimum resources needed for human subsistence? Some studies refer here to Nussbaum’s (2012) theory as a framework to develop the research tools since it sets up ten central capabilities, which are the foundations for the development of human beings in the space in which they live, move and socialize. A ground theoretical framework emerges from this question: What is needed for a dignified life? This issue is at the core of these debates, since people do not leave their region of origin as long as they are leading some sort of a dignified life. The complexity of the nexus between climate change and mobility has obvious implications in finding governance solutions. Human displacement can assume different forms (e.g. forced or voluntary, internal or cross-border, temporary or permanent) and requires a wide range of cross-sectorial policy responses (migration, climate change, development, human rights disaster management and humanitarian relief) at national,

regional and international levels. It also includes all the phases of migration: pre- displacement (actions to mitigate climate change and strengthen the adaptation capacities of communities), displacement, and return or resettlement. At the level of solutions, there is a certain trend in the debate claiming on the need to establish a global international legal mechanism to provide a legal status and protective rights to the displaced people on the grounds of climate change and environmental degradation, as well as a burden-sharing system for resettlement programs. Finally, the city approach becomes prominent since according to initial studies, the first effect of environmental degradation is the displacement of people from rural to urban areas within their countries. By mapping the key issues in this context, we cannot leave aside social class dimensions at the city level. Thus, cross-border migration is generally the next step but the last in personal decisions. But as O. Barba insisted in his speech, in general there is a lack of implication of cities in the creation of framework to find solutions. Here we frame what has always been a concern within the debate on environmental degradation and climate change. In the words of Sobczac-Szelc, solutions must focus on developing policies to improve living standards and offer alternative sources of income, involve women in the labour market, improve irrigation techniques, prevent reservoir situations and invest in health and education. Additionally, we must stress that all actions should be preceded by public consultations and knowledge exchange while respecting the traditional local and domestic strategies taken by local communities to face limited environmental resources. From a legal and political point of view, there is no mutually accepted designation for people whose decision to migrate was induced by climate change or environmental factors by international organizations and academia. This is because it is difficult to isolate environmental factors from other drivers of forced migration (sudden-onset events, e.g., flood, earthquake) versus voluntary migration (low-onset events, e.g., drought, sea level rise). IOM and the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF 2008) identified three categories: “environmentally-motivated migrants”, “environmentally- forced migrants” and “environmental refugees”. Furthermore, since its proposal in 2011, the IOM defined environmental migrants in its Glossary on Migration as “persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (Perruchoud, & Redpath-Cross, 2011). Related literature also shows the difficulty of isolating climate change as a unique driver of migration. It is assumed that the effects of climate change on the increasing international and regional human displacements and large-scale international population movements will primarily be felt in the developing world, “therefore unlikely to occur in the EU” (EC, 2013, p. 34), justifying to some extent the EU’s focus on the external dimension of migration to deal with the linkage between “climate change” and human displacements. We cannot escape from Eurocentrism in this matter, since there is a certain approach that needs to be avoided: the fact that most debates focus on the effects of climate change in Southern and Easter Mediterranean countries on migration pressures to Europe in terms of national security. Traditionally, the EU has addressed the impact of climate change on migration patterns as part of its humanitarian and development policies. More recently, the issue has also been calling the attention of security and defense policies, which might be beneficial, since climate-security hinges upon few key directions, which are multi-level governance,

new energy pathways and climate management. We assume that multi-level governance is crucial for climate change mitigation.

II. Meeting Summary: Guiding arguments

1. Lack of evidence linking migration and climate change, and lack of evidence on climate change and its policy effects

Involuntary migration has been a defining feature of the Mediterranean region these last decades. However, policy makers have placed more attention on displacement due to conflict rather than on climate change and environmental degradation. Thus, we do not have neither empirical evidence nor conceptual tools to state whether or not climate change leads to involuntary displacement. In fact, a debate is both conceptually and empirically very complex. However, experts have warned that portraying climate change as an apocalyptical threat might securitize the relationship between migration and climate change for political reasons; it becomes a significant concern especially in the North, to give grounds for their more restrictive policies and reactive political systems to limit migration. Furthermore, more research in the Mediterranean is needed to examine whether or not there is a causal relationship between environmental threats and social/political conflict. As V. Koubi stated in her intervention, the existing literature has not detected a robust and direct effect linking climate to conflict onset. Substantial agreement exists that climatic changes contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the literature shows that climatic conditions breed conflict in fertile grounds: in regions dependent on agriculture and in combination and interaction with other socioeconomic and political factors such as a low level of economic development and political marginalization. V. Koubi insisted that what is needed is that future research continues to investigate how climatic changes interact with and/or are conditioned by socio-economic, political, and demographic settings to cause conflict and uncover the causal mechanisms that link these two phenomena. However, specialists have argued that when studying the effects of climate change on involuntary migration in the region, we need to take into account the weak political/governance systems which not only worsen the effect of climate change, but also give room for local parties to misuse the climate change to advance their own political agenda. As T. Fakhoury illustrated in her intervention, one of the core demands of the current protesters in Lebanon who are asking for a new government is to have environmental justice. Thus, in order to better understand the relationship between climate change and migration, we also need to consider the existing socio-political situation and the governance system in the Mediterranean, which, all together combined, lead to conflict and become a driver of migration. We need data saturation at the micro-level so we can tease out to what extent environmental/climatic factors affect people’s migration decision and behavior. The lack of objective data linking migration and climate change is particularly paramount at the micro level. If we are to understand its effects on migration decisions, we need to pay serious attention to what Geddes called in his brief speech the 3 D’s: distance (most of them are internal, only some are international), direction (people sometimes do not necessarily move away from one form of environmental risk to another, where they are exposed to environmental hazards) and duration (permanent/temporary). The ecological

characteristics of the Mediterranean region need to be combined with the social, political and economic characteristics of migration.

2. Distinctive features of the Mediterranean as a region affected by climate change and environmental degradation

H. Boubakri exemplified in his intervention that historically, the droughts of the Sahel area in the 17th and 18th century demonstrated that the African population’s movement was driven by three main factors: ineffective operations, ecological problems and limited natural resources. Within this framework, researchers should address the complexity and causes and dimensions of Mediterranean migration dynamics due to climate change. Climate change has then, to some degree, influenced migration flows in the Mediterranean. However, there is a decreased reliance in the 20th century on agricultural production specially in the North which does not easily allow us to detect the causality between climate change and migration. In order to understand MedMig, we should also look at pollution and overfishing in this region. It is also important to look at the agricultural changes and food export. Therefore, irrigation gains importance, especially in rural surroundings. Furthermore, the growing number of population in the Mediterranean leads to food scarcity. In fact, this region was long known for exportation practices of its agricultural products, but now more than 50% of its food is being imported due to food scarcity. When it comes to improving sustainable agricultural practices, biodiversity loss should be mitigated both in sea and land. Regional warming is 20% faster in the Mediterranean than global rates. In recent years, the average sea level has risen by 6 cm. As far as future scenarios, it is important in any migration discussion for climate change mitigation to be the key necessity for world leaders, especially since it is predicted for this region’s warming to continue to exceed global rates. The population dynamics in the Mediterranean are substantial. People living close to the sea level will in turn be affected by rising sea levels. Today, the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for a number of real and potential climate risks, such as heat waves, droughts, desertification, wildfires, soil and coastal erosion, as well as flooding. Thus, sustainable development and coastal management are important. By the end of the current century, the coolest summer month in Mediterranean cities will be warmer than today’s warmest summer month, which will have a direct impact on these people’s health and livelihood. Also, diseases carried by for example tiger mosquitos will have a greater ease of spreading across the region. As V. Koubi stated, according to the World Bank Report 2018 entitled “Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration”, under a BAU scenario (i.e., high GHG emissions and unequal development), 143 million people will migrate in sub-Saharan Africa (86 million), South Asia (40 million) and Latin America (17 million). Furthermore, V. Koubi affirmed that the report did not include predictions for the Mediterranean region and hence, she stressed the need for more rigorous research on the topic of environmental/climate-induced migration in this specific region.

3. Climate change and environmental degradation as induced drivers of Mediterranean migration: Multi-causality and mixed migration

Climate change by itself is not to be taken in isolation as a driver, but along with the vulnerability of people, their capacities, and also economic, social and political drivers.

Vulnerability includes individuals’ exposure to climatic events, their sensitivity to these events, and their ability to adapt. For instance, high exposure to climatic events (e.g. floods) and processes (e.g. droughts), combined with low resilience / adaptation capacity and low levels of development, accelerate vulnerability. To this end, migration can be a strategy to reduce vulnerability in two ways. (1) Migration as a survival strategy (2) Migration as an adaptation strategy. And so, in these affected areas, people who cannot move may be trapped, so their vulnerability should be highlighted as well. This also shows that there is a lot of focus on how climate change induces migration, however how and why questions of the reaction of populations to environmental degradation, limited resources and climate change are undermined. We might argue about the multi-causality of the necessity to move, but we cannot get away from the significant reduction in the potential to live and to produce in the Mediterranean. There were significant droughts between 1988-1993 and 1998-2000 which affected the agriculture in the region which highly depends on it, but these were a precursor of much more significant events that could happen in the future. Thus, we need to provide better interventions (mitigation and/or adaptation measures) based on scientific results. And we should not fall into the trap of looking at climate change alone and overlooking the other factors. What actually causes human suffering or limits our prospects of survival? It is always a combination of climate change and other factors (e.g. pollution and overfishing). It is the same for agriculture: unsustainable agricultural techniques are affecting food production, but climate change is adding substantial weight to it, that affects both the quantity and quality of food produced. This lowers the capacity to produce food which in turns affects the capacity to export food to other regions. This reduction will increase the prices of imported agricultural products from the Mediterranean. Induced migration is increasing societies’ vulnerabilities in terms of the daily life, destruction of basic survival assets and of poor basic resources of the main rural areas. In this way, we should be aware of the livelihoods and quality of life of rural populations. This means that rural communities are the most vulnerable because of their limited resources. But cities also need to be targeted. As K. Hassan illustrated in his speech, almost 60% of the Egyptian population lacks access to improved sanitation, in addition to the absence of solid waste management in the country, leading to the generation of 52 million tons of solid waste per year. Moreover, as K. Sobczak-Szelc stressed in her intervention, similar environmental conditions do not necessarily create similar adaptation and coping strategies. Depending on the scale of the environmental changes and possibilities to mitigate its limitations, environmental conditions may either force or motivate people to migrate, as seen in the comparison of two oases Mhamid (Morocco) and El Faouar (Tunisia). Even if environmental degradation gives strong reasons to migrate, other factors such as financial possibilities, social capital, family traditions, social connections and sometimes just good fortune, are not less important. In fact, relations with neighboring countries, human resources (physical ability and willingness), financial resources and access to new technologies may affect people’s decision to migrate.

4. Development, resilience and Mediterranean migration as an end stage process of the response to environmental degradation

The real challenge or root cause is not climate change as such. As I. Martín underlined in his intervention, the real issue is the lack of development in the Southern and Easter Mediterranean countries which truly determines the climate change-migration nexus. No researcher, policy maker or analyst has predicted a massive migration flow away from the Spanish, Italian or even Greek coastal and rural areas as a consequence of climate change. It is the lack of development and real convergence across the Mediterranean which puts climate change at the spotlight as a possible driver of migration. In any case, to the extent that this is recognized as a common challenge, it should be addressed on the basis of shared responsibility in the Mediterranean, and this means mobilizing common resources to implement common solutions. Thus, an integrated response is needed. In other words, we should get rid of the Eurocentric view which links climate change to migration in the Mediterranean. The most appropriate focus for framing research and policy is thus climate change and its link to lack of development which then leads to migration. This also needs to be combined with micro actions, since resilience is a survival strategy and requires ad hoc interventions and micro actions. However, development requires a more structural action. At the global policy level, experts have called to look at migration driven by climate change not as a security threat, but rather as an adaptation strategy that many will be resorting to in the future. Displacement and involuntary migration can be an indication of climate change vulnerability since being exposed to climatic events without having a proper or any adaptation strategy combined with low preparedness to deal with climate change, gives people no choice other than moving. What this tells us is that underdevelopment and inequalities must be considered as the main cause of climate change-induced migration. Paths to reduce induced migration remain to be developed. In this regard, O. Quintana argued that the sustainable development goals of the 2030 Agenda adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015 must be incorporated as a

framework for action to address climate change and environmental degradation in the Mediterranean. (Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform, 2020). In this framework, it is advisable to work on building innovation capacity and also introducing the circular economy approach in local projects by conducting research focused on the preservation of resources. In so doing, while minimizing externalities and valorizing waste, and by creating an interlinkage between the areas being addressed, our attention will be on the socio-economic and scientific impacts of these projects, in order to boost the local economic development, while bridging the Northern and Southern parts of the Mediterranean. The fact is that the most vulnerable communities are the rural ones because their main resource is the environment, like the land. The impact of environmental degradation also affects Mediterranean cities. The environment plays there a role in the previous processes of migration decisions, and often it is unconscious. But most potential Med-Movers are not yet aware and have difficulties articulating a narrative on climate change when they have to justify their spatial mobility. For instance, it is still very difficult to find objective answers to; at what point will households become unable to find an adaptation technique on site without moving, or when will they stop wanting to move even if they are able to do so. As a result, migration can become a way to minimize the exposure of these populations to climate change and can increase their resilience towards risks. Thus, resilience is seen as the capacity to adapt to complex environmental events instead of migration. Resilience is a survival strategy in emergency situations.

5. The governance of climate change and human Med-mobilities: Multi- variable and multi-scale approaches are necessary

Governments in the Mediterranean have not addressed much climate change in their agenda, which is clearly reflected in the very low budgets dedicated to their environmental ministries. Furthermore, it has become challenging to open the agenda of “climate refugees” in the region when many of the states are non-signatories to the 1951 refugee convention, and when the region has been witnessing ongoing conflicts which obliges humanitarian organizations and UN agencies to allocate their budget to immediate vulnerabilities arising from geopolitical conflicts. Climate change alone is not an isolated driver of migration; political and economic governance play a significant role as well (such as corruption), mainly as an accelerating driver of migration initiated by climate change as seen in the Sahel communities. Finally, the high influx of “environmental migrants” might cause conflict in the receiving areas by establishing “unstable” ethno-political balance and burdening limited resources. Furthermore, other studies show that one of the factors which caused the start of the Syrian civil war was drought-induced migration, and on a regional level, the increase of food prices contributed to the onset of the Arab Spring in 2011.

III. Concluding remarks: Final recommendations

More rigorous research is advisable: (1) collect better data on migration and climatic processes (2) establish better modelling techniques to predict future Mediterranean migration flows (3) make micro-level analysis to identify the climatic and non-climatic determinants of individual migration decisions (4) have deep insight on the compound effects of both slow-onset and sudden-onset climatic events on migration (5) examine adaptation options at both micro and macro levels (6) explore the implications of migration on vulnerability especially in the case of rural-to-urban migration (7) investigate immobility and trapped populations (8) draw attention to the climate- migration-conflict relationship. When it comes to exploring the mechanisms underlying this relationship, we find out that a limited number of studies examine the reason behind and the way in which climate change affects Mediterranean migration, rather most studies focus on whether or not this relationship exists. Some studies at the macro level try to differentiate the effect of this relationship based on socio-political factors, but more research needs to be done to observe this kind of trigger. We also need to find ways to measure environmental degradation and its response in terms of migration or resilience. The root cause approach should not solely focus on climate change, but also on other factors that play an important role in migration.

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Thibault, H. (2008). Climate change and energy in the Mediterranean. Valbone: Plan Bleu. Retrieved from http://ecopeaceme.org/uploads/CC_femip_study_climate_change_and_energy_in _the_mediterranean.pdf.

Thiébault, S., Moatti, J. P., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Dulac, F., Hamonou, E., & Guégan, J. F. (2016). The Mediterranean region under climate change: A scientific update. Marseille: IRD editions.

Valentini, R., Sievenpiper, J. L., Antonelli, M., & Dembska, K. (2019). Achieving the sustainable development goals through sustainable food systems. Cham: Springer. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-23969-5.

Werrell, C. E., & Femia, F. (Eds.). (2013). The Arab Spring and climate change: A climate and security correlations series. Washington, DC: Center for American Progress.

Werz, M., & Hoffman, M. (2016). Europe’s twenty-first century challenge: Climate change, migration and security. European View, 15(1), 145 - 54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12290-016-0385-7

Werz, M., & Hoffman, M. (2017). Climate change and migration in the Mediterranean: Challenges for the future. (Mediterranean Yearbook, pp. 270 – 73). Barcelona: European Institute of the Mediterranean. Retrieved from https://www.iemed.org/observatori/arees-danalisi/arxius- adjunts/anuari/med.2017/IEMed_MedYearbook2017_climate_change_Werz_hoff man.pdf.

Zambon, I., Rontos, K., Serra, P., Colantoni, A., & Salvati, L. (2019). Population dynamics in Southern Europe: A local-scale analysis, 1961– 2011. Sustainability, 11(1), 109. Doi: 10.3390/su11010109.

Zapata-Barrero, R. & Faustini Torres, L. (Eds.). (2019). Mediterranean migration esearch: Variable focal length. Special Issue, Comparative Migration Studies. Retrieved from https://comparativemigrationstudies.springeropen.com/MedMigrationpersp ectives

Zapata-Barrero, R. (2019). Editorial: ‘Mediterranean Thinking’ for mapping a Mediterranean migration research agenda. Special Issue on: Mediterranean migration research: Variable focal length, Comparative Migration Studies, 8(6). Doi: 10.1186/s40878-019-0170-2.

Reports by International Organizations

European Commission. (2013). Climate change, environmental degradation, and migration. Brussels: European Commission. Retrieved from https://eur- lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52013SC0138

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre & Norwegian Refugee Council. (2019). Global report on internal displacement. Retrieved from http://www.internal- displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/2019-IDMC- GRID.pdf.

International Organization for Migration. (2015). Migrants and cities: New partnerships to manage mobility (World migration report 2015). Geneva: International Organization for Migration. Retrieved from https://publications.iom.int/system/files/wmr2015_en.pdf.

International Organization for Migration & United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. (2019). Addressing the land degradation-migration nexus: The role of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Geneva: International Organization for Migration. Retrieved from https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/sites/default/files/IOM%20UNCCD%20D esertification%202019%20FINAL.pdf.

Kumari Rigaud, K., de Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Bergmann, J., Clement, V., Ober, K., ..., & Midgley, A. (2018). Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/846391522306665751/pdf/124719- v2-PUB-PUBLIC-docdate-3-18-18WBG-ClimateChange-Final.pdf

Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform. (2020). Sustainable Development Goals. Retrieved from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs

The Network of Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change. (2019). Risks associated to climate and environmental changes in the Mediterranean region. Aix-en-Provence: The Network of Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change. Retrieved from https://www.medecc.org/wp- content/uploads/2018/12/MedECC-Booklet_EN_WEB.pdf.

Union for the Mediterranean. (2011). Towards a Euro-Mediterranean sustainable urban strategy (EMSUS) within the framework of the Union for the Mediterranean. Barcelona: Union for the Mediterranean. Retrieved from https://ufmsecretariat.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EMSUS-Diagnosis-of-the- Mediterranean-cities-situation.pdf.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2019). World urbanization prospects: The 2018 revision (ST/ESA/SER.A/420).

New York: United Nations. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Report.pdf

United Nations General Assembly. (2018). Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (UN Doc A/RES/73/195). Retrieved from https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/73/195.

Zoï Environment Network. (2019). Climate change and security in the Mediterranean basin and potential implications for Switzerland. Châtelaine: Zoï Environment Network. Retrieved from https://zoinet.org/wp- content/uploads/2019/08/Med_Scroll_Final_Def_Divided_small.pdf.

V. Expert Meeting’s agenda

Expert Meeting on the occasion of the launch of EuroMedMig Working Paper Series Deep roots of migration, environmental and climate change: Exploring emerging drivers of human mobility in the Mediterranean

Location: UfM, Palacio de Pedralbes. Pere Duran Farell, 11. 08034 Barcelona

9.30 Opening  Itaf Ben Abdallah, Higher Education and Research, UfM, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Ricard Zapata-Barrero, EuroMedMig, GRITIM-UPF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

10.00 - 11.30 Session 1 – Climate change and environment within the Mediterranean migration research agenda - Research on Mediterranean Migration (UfM activities so far; work by EuroMedMig) - Presentation of EuroMedMig Working Paper Series.

Introduction: Ricard Zapata-Barrero, EuroMedMig, GRITIM-UPF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain Moderation: Zouhair El-Hairan, EuroMedMig, GRITIM-UPF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Tamirace Fakhoury, EuroMedMig, Institute of Social Justice and Conflict Resolution at the Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon  Vally Koubi, MedECC, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Hassen Boubraki, EuroMedMig, University of Sousse, Tunisia  Andrew Geddes, European University Institute, Florence, Italy

12.00 - 13.30 Session 2 – Future and current scenarios related to climate change and environment - Climate change and socioeconomic drivers (climate change, desertification, water scarcity, rural-urban drivers)

Introduction and Moderation: Arnault Graves, Energy and Climate Action, UfM, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Wolfgang Cramer, MedECC, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Karolina Sobczak-Szelc, Associated EuroMedMig Member, Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw, Poland  Oriol Barba Suñol, MedCities, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Hocine Labdealoui, Associated EuroMedMig Member, University of Algiers, Algeria

13.30 - 14.30 Lunch 14.30 - 16.00 Session 3 – Building resilience for a prosperous Mediterranean - Tools for building resilience through development (possible solutions based on Sustainable development water, circular economy, rural development, etc).

Introduction: Alessandra Sensi, Water, Environment and Blue Economy, UfM, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain Moderation: Giuseppe Provenzano, Higher Education and Research, UfM, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Octavi Quintana, PRIMA Foundation, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain  Kareem Hassan, Benaa Foundation and Global Institute for Water, Environment and Health, Cairo, Egypt  Iván Martín, Associated EuroMedMig Member, GRITIM-UPF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

16.00 - 16.15 Conclusions  Giuseppe Provenzano, Higher Education and Research, UfM  Ricard Zapata-Barrero, EuroMedMig, GRITIM-UPF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

VI. List of Experts (presented in alphabetical order)

Barba Suñol, Oriol – Director of MedCities, Member of the Territorial Resilience to Climate Change Hub of the Center for Mediterranean Integration and the Water Experts Group at the Secretariat of the Union for the Mediterranean, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Benabdallah, Itaf – Senior Advisor for the Higher Education and Research Division at the Secretariat of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Boubakri, Hassen – Member of the EuroMedMig Steering Committee, Professor of Geography at the University of Sousse and Chairman of the Centre of Tunis for Migration and Asylum (CeTuMA), Tunisia.

Cramer, Wolfgang – Coordinator of the network of Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (MedECC), Professor of Global Ecology, Research Director (CNRS) at the Mediterranean Institute for Biodiversity and Ecology, Aix-en-Provence, France.

Fakhoury, Tamirace – Member of the EuroMedMig Steering Committee, Associate Professor in Political Sciences and International Affairs in the Department of Social Sciences and Associate Director of the Institute of Social Justice and Conflict Resolution at the Lebanese American University (ISJCR), Beirut, Lebanon.

Geddes, Andrew – Member of the EuroMedMig Steering Committee, Director of the Migration Policy Centre (MPC) and Chair in Migration Studies, Florence, Italy.

González Afonso, Isidro – Deputy Secretary General of the Union for the Mediterranean in charge of Water, Environment and Blue Economy (UfM), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Graves, Arnault – Senior Climate Adviser at the Secretariat of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Hassan, Kareem – Director of Youth and Innovation at the Global Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (GIWEH), Managing Director of BENAA Foundation, Lecturer and Researcher at Zewail University for Science and Technology, Cairo, Egypt.

Koubi, Vally – Professor at the Center for Comparative and International Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, and the Institute of Economics at the University of Bern, Switzerland.

Labdelaoui, Hocine – Associated EuroMedMig Member, Professor of Sociology at the University of Algiers 2, Team Leader in International Mobility and Migration at the Research Center in Applied Economics for Development (CREAD), Algiers, Algeria.

Martín, Iván – Associated EuroMedMig Member, Economist and Associate Researcher at the Interdisciplinary Research Group on Immigration at the Department of Political and Social Sciences at Universitat Pompeu Fabra (GRITIM-UPF), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Mastrojeni, Grammenos – Deputy Secretary General at the Secretariat of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Provenzano, Giuseppe – Expert in the Higher Education and Research Division at the Secretariat of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Quintana, Octavi – Director of the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area (PRIMA) Foundation, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Sensi, Alessandra – Head of Water, Environment and Blue Economy at the Secretariat of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Sobczak-Szelc, Karolina – Associated EuroMedMig Member, Assistant Professor in the Centre of Migration Research (CMR), University of Warsaw, Poland.

Zapata-Barrero, Ricard – EuroMedMig Coordinator, Full Professor and Director of the Interdisciplinary Research Group on Immigration at the Department of Political and Social Sciences at Universitat Pompeu Fabra (GRITIM-UPF), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.