Israel and the Middle East News Update

Monday, May 16

Headlines:  Tells France It’s Not Interested in Multilateral Peace Talks  Ya’alon Faces Criticism After Urging IDF Officers to Speak Out on Values  Herzog: Unity Gov’t ‘Rare Opportunity’ to Boost Israel’s Mideast Ties  COGAT Maj. General Yoav Mordechai: Hamas, ISIS Cooperating  Hezbollah Blames Syrian Rebels, Not Israel, for Top Commander’s Death  Arab Lawmakers Join Nakba Ceremony at Tel Aviv University  Stabbing Attack in Jerusalem, One Wounded  Netanyahu Slams Hollande for Backing ‘Shameful’ UNESCO Vote

Commentary:  Yedioth Ahronoth: “Ya’alon’s War of Independence”  By Sima Kadmon, Senior Political Commentator, Yedioth Ahronoth  Now Lebanon: “Mystery Surrounds Death of Hezbollah Commander”  By Nicholas Blanford, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts May 16, 2016

Washington Post Israel Tells France It's Not Interested in Multilateral Peace Talks French officials said Sunday they will continue to press ahead with plans to host a multilateral Middle East peace conference later this year, despite hearing bluntly that Israel doesn’t really like the idea. French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault met with Prime Minister on Sunday to promote what diplomats are calling the “French Initiative,” a still evolving and admittedly vague diplomatic project that seeks to bring global attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and find consensus among the international community on how to move forward with a two-state solution. See also, “Netanyahu, French FM Fail to See Eye-to-Eye” (Ynet News)

BICOM Ya'alon Faces Criticism After Urging IDF to Speak Out on Values Israel’s Defense Minister has appealed to IDF officers to continue speaking with moral conviction, even if it contradicts the country’s political leadership. Addressing the IDF leadership at the Defense Ministry’s headquarters, Moshe Ya’alon appeared to reignite debate over the controversial comments made earlier this month by IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Golan, who said at a Holocaust Memorial Day event that some processes from 1930s Germany could be detected in Israel today. Ya’alon backed Golan, who was sharply criticized by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his comments. See also, “Despite Tension, Netanyahu Has No Intention of Firing Defense Minister” (Ha’aretz) See also, “PM and Ya’alon in Joint Statement: Army Subordinate to Politicians” (Times of Israel)

Ha’aretz Herzog: Unity Gov’t 'Rare Opportunity' to Boost Mideast Ties Zionist Union’s entry into the coalition could help Israel take advantage of a "rare" opportunity to improve relations with other Mideast countries, party leader said Sunday. “I have identified a rare regional diplomatic opportunity that may lapse and not return,” Herzog told party activists. “I don’t say this based on nothing, but based on knowledge...I don’t know if it will happen. But it could be that it will happen only due to a change in the government’s composition.” Herzog offered no details about the opportunity, but stressed that if it’s okay for his party to negotiate with Palestinian Authority President Abbas, then it’s okay to negotiate with Prime Minister Netanyahu. See also, “Herzog: Unity Government Opportunity for 'Dramatic Change'” ()

Ynet News COGAT Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai: Hamas, ISIS Cooperating Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai told a Saudi news site, Elaph, that ISIS activists have entered Gaza from Sinai and are trading weapons and money to Hamas in return for medical care. He stated members of ISIS entered the Gaza Strip a few days ago from Egypt via the tunnels. The purpose of their visit was to carry out military exercises in the strip, the major general relayed, which they coordinated with a source close to Hamas, Said Abed Al-Aal. See also, “Israel: ISIS Terrorist Snuck into Gaza Strip Via Hamas Tunnels” (Jerusalem Post)

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Reuters Hezbollah Blames Rebels, Not Israel, for Badreddine's Death Hezbollah said on Saturday its top military commander, whose death it announced on Friday, was killed in Syria by Sunni Islamist artillery fire and not by an Israeli air strike as one member of the Lebanese Shi'ite movement had said. "Investigations have showed that the explosion, which targeted one of our bases near Damascus International Airport, and which led to the martyrdom of commander Mustafa Badreddine, was the result of artillery bombardment carried out by takfiri (hardline Sunni) groups in the area," Hezbollah said in a statement. See also, “No Mention of Israel, Please” (Ynet News)

Jerusalem Post Arab Lawmakers Join Nakba Ceremony at Tel Aviv University Arab MKs participated in a “Nakba Day” ceremony at Entin Square in front of the main entrance to Tel Aviv University on Sunday. The Im Tirtzu NGO held a very loud Zionist counter-demonstration, chanting “Nakba Nonsense,” waving Israeli flags, passing out flyers, and drowning out the “Nakba” ceremony speakers. They brought a 4.5-meter inflatable Pinocchio doll. “You are on the side of the terrorists that kill children!” Im Tirtzu’s CEO, Matan Peleg shouted into the speaker. A couple of hundred Nakba protesters and a few dozen Zionist counter-protesters were on opposite sides of the square, with security barriers and a strong police presence separating them. The Nakba protesters held a ceremony and moment of silence for those displaced in 1948 amid constant noise from the Im Tirtzu side. See also, “68-Second Siren Sounds in the West Bank to Mark Nakba Day” (Jerusalem Post)

Arutz Sheva Stabbing Attack in Jerusalem, One Wounded One person was wounded in a stabbing attack by an Arab terrorist along Jerusalem's Hanavi'im Street. The attacker, a Palestinian Arab in his twenties from the West Bank, has been arrested. The victim - a Jewish man in his late twenties - is being treated for a stab wound to his shoulder. Police said the perpetrator was seen by officers "stabbing a Jew and fleeing," discarding the knife nearby. The officers "caught the terrorist, subdued and arrested him," a police statement said. It marks the first Arab terror attack this week, and follows a number of attacks and attempted attacks last week.

Times of Israel Netanyahu Slams Hollande for Backing Shameful UNESCO Vote Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a strongly worded letter to French President Francoise Hollande to condemn Paris’s support for a recent controversial UNESCO resolution, days before the French leadership apologized for the vote. The UNESCO document spoke of “Occupied Palestine” and made no mention of historic Jewish ties to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. It condemned “Israeli aggressions and illegal measures against the freedom of worship and Muslims’ access to their Holy Site Al-Aqsa Mosque/Al-Haram Al Sharif.” France was among the 33 countries that backed the resolution in the 58-member body.

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Yedioth Ahronoth – May 16, 2016 Ya’alon’s War of Independence By Sima Kadmon  It was only a matter of time. It began on the Golan Heights with Netanyahu meeting with the without the defense minister’s attendance; it was followed by Netanyahu’s failure to back the defense minister in connection with the shooting incident in Hebron and it ended last night with an open clash between the prime minister and the defense minister. That clash—or more accurately, Ya’alon’s incisive remarks to dozens of high-ranking officers in honor of Independence Day—might best be described as Bugi Ya’alon’s independence day.  There can be no doubt that something has shifted in Ya’alon. The man who once upon a time was considered to be the settlers’ great hope and who would often outflank his fellow ministers from the right, long ago shook off the crown that was placed on his head by the outlaws in Judea and Samaria and voiced a responsible and uncompromising stance on every controversial issue. He constantly lent his support to the commanders of the army, often against the prime minister’s own position, and certainly against the positions voiced by ministers from the Jewish Home and the right wing Likud ministers.  That was the case with Elor Azaria affair, when Ya’alon sided with the chief of staff and the military echelon, and condemned the rally that was scheduled in support of the soldier, whereas Netanyahu phoned the soldier’s father to lend him his support. And that was also the case with the Maj. Gen. Yair Golan affair, when Netanyahu condemned Golan’s statements at a Holocaust Memorial Day event about similarities in the history of Europe and Germany from 80 years ago and things that are happening in Israel at present.  Speaking at the cabinet meeting a week ago, Netanyahu described Golan’s comments as an outrage, thereby reigniting the public debate. Evidently, Ya’alon decided not to drop the issue either, and the timing of his remarks was particularly painful for the prime minister. A good army, Ya’alon said last night, in what seemed to be more of an appeal to the political echelon than to the dozens of high-ranking officers he was formally addressing, is an army whose commanders feel confident in their ability to voice their opinion at all times. He called on the commanders not to fear, hesitate or be deterred, to be courageous not only on the battlefield but when issues are being discussed at the table as well. He said that the possibility that the IDF’s values and ethics might be corroded made him lose sleep and that he was determined not to relent on that issue.  There can be no doubt that even Ya’alon, who isn’t considered to be a political luminary, was keenly aware of the political tempest his remarks were going to unleash. It was clear to him when he told IDF commanders not to be afraid to voice their opinions, that the implication was that someone was not letting them voice their opinions.  Netanyahu could be counted on not to let that slide without a response. Netanyahu’s response was issued even before Ya’alon had completed his speech, and it noted that the prime minister gave his full support to IDF soldiers and commanders.

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 By so doing, the prime minister underscored with his own two hands that he had been the object of Ya’alon’s attack. If there was anyone who hadn’t been sure whom Ya’alon was talking about, they now knew.  Apparently, however, either on second thought or at the advice of an aide, Netanyahu came to believe that his response hadn’t been quite adequate, and he summoned Ya’alon to a meeting this morning. The whip that Netanyahu threatens Ya’alon with is the defense portfolio. That is the only punishment he can mete out; the option of firing Ya’alon and appointing someone else as defense minister.  It seems unlikely to me that Netanyahu will be in any rush to do that. Lieberman, judging by his remarks yesterday about Netanyahu, has no intention of joining the coalition. And Bennett? The prime minister would prefer to appoint Nasrallah as defense minister and not Bennett; otherwise, he won’t be allowed to come home at night [Kadmon is referring to Sara Netanyahu]. He wouldn’t dare appoint Herzog, who appears to be in the advanced stages of negotiating the Zionist Union’s entry into the coalition, for fear of the response on the right and from the settlers. He would be better served by slightly reprimanding Ya’alon than by rocking the boat.  As to Ya’alon—his recent behavior indicates that he isn’t afraid of losing what he’s got and that he’s made a decision to remain true to his values and conscience come what may, without worrying about the price he might pay—precisely as he urged the military commanders to do yesterday.  A month ago, while the battles in the Zionist Union were raging, I wrote that if Bugi weren’t Bugi, he would be able to win the Labor Party leadership easily. That wasn’t entirely made in jest. If Bugi weren’t Bugi, we might be tempted to think that he is taking the first steps towards forming a new party. Sima Kadmon is a journalist and senior political commentator at Yedioth Ahronoth.

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Now Lebanon – May 13, 2016 Mystery Surrounds Death of Hezbollah Commander By Nicholas Blanford  It will take several days, perhaps longer, for the murk surrounding Mustafa Badreddine’s demise to clear, key to which will be the results of Hezbollah’s investigation into the death of the veteran cadre.  Hezbollah’s official line at the time of writing is an acknowledgement that a “large explosion” occurred at one of its positions near Damascus International Airport and that Badreddine was killed and a number of other people wounded. There are perhaps two possible culprits behind the assassination, if that is what it was, and one alternative, more fanciful, theory.  The main suspect is Israel—and with good reason. Since the 2006 war, Israel has abandoned its hesitancy of the previous decade about dispatching senior Hezbollah leaders—military and political—when the opportunity arises. In 1992, Israeli helicopter gunships destroyed a vehicle carrying then Hezbollah leader Sheikh Abbas Mussawi, killing him, his wife and child. What appeared to be a tactical victory for Israel quickly backfired. In retaliation, Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel for the first time, the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires was blown up a month later, killing 29 people, and Mussawi was replaced the next day by the even more capable Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.  From then until after the 2006 war, Israel left the senior leadership alone and concentrated— with limited success—on finding and killing Hezbollah field commanders.  The 2006 war changed Israel’s calculus. Israel believes it can get away with killing senior Hezbollah figures because it is gambling that the organization will refrain from a major retaliation which could trigger an escalation that leads to a war. Israel apparently put that analysis to the test in February 2008 when it reportedly played a role in the car bomb assassination of then Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh. There followed a number of minor, bungled or thwarted attempts to attack Israeli targets around the world which were attributed to Hezbollah, but nothing on the scale of the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires.  Since Mughniyeh’s assassination, Israel appears to have been busy killing other senior commanders: Hassan Laqqis, a top Hezbollah military technician, was gunned down outside his home in southern Beirut in December 2013; in January 2015, Jihad Mughniyeh, Imad’s son, was killed along with an Iranian general in the Golan Heights in an Israeli drone strike; five months ago, Israeli jets bombed a building outside Damascus, killing Samir Kuntar, who had been organizing anti-Israel militias in Syria. If Israel is responsible for killing Badreddine, it would fit in with the pattern of assassinations in recent years.  If Hezbollah announces that Israel is responsible, we can expect to see some form of retaliation, probably similar to the operations it carried out in the wake of the killings of Jihad Mughniyeh and Kuntar. Mughniyeh was avenged with a skillfully conducted anti-tank missile ambush of an Israeli military convoy in the Shebaa Farms which left two soldiers dead. The less successful Kuntar retaliation saw a pair of road side bombs explode in the Shebaa Farms but without causing casualties. 6

 A retaliation for Badreddine would have to draw Israeli blood, the Hezbollah cadres would accept no less. But, as with similar past reprisals, Hezbollah will have to craft an operation that stings Israel but without goading it into a counter-retaliation, the first step of an unwanted escalation.  The fact that Hezbollah did not immediately accuse Israel of Badreddine’s death should not be interpreted as hesitancy among the party’s leadership to have another entanglement with the Jewish state. When Israeli jets bombed a Hezbollah weapons storage facility near Janta in the eastern Bekaa in 2014, Hezbollah radio initially claimed the attack occurred just across the border in Syria, and therefore had nothing to do with the party. But some 36 hours later, Hezbollah released a statement confirming that one of its bases inside Lebanon had been hit and that retaliation was imminent. There followed a string of small scale attacks against Israeli troops over the next three weeks in the Shebaa Farms and northern Golan. If Hezbollah had been unwilling to mount an attack against Israel at the time, it did not have to release that second statement. No one in Lebanon could disprove Hezbollah’s initial declaration that the missile strike had been in Syrian territory.  The second potential culprit behind Badreddine’s death is a Sunni jihadist group, perhaps the Islamic State or Jabhat al-Nusra. It must be said that the odds that militants from either group were able to track down Badreddine and kill him with a car bomb or missile are very remote, but it is one possibility that is being considered. Some sources close to Hezbollah’s thinking are mulling whether Saudi Arabia may have had a role in Badreddine’s demise, given the open hostility between the party and the kingdom.  On the other hand, if the facility near Damascus airport was widely known to be in use by Hezbollah, it could have been targeted by a Sunni jihadist group that was unaware Badreddine was inside.  A third option—and here we stray into conspiracy theories—is that Badreddine did not die in Damascus but was killed outside Aleppo in the ongoing fighting in the area. Several Twitter feeds from Syrian rebel groups, including Jaysh al-Sunna, are claiming that Badreddine was killed in a battle in Khan Touman in southern Aleppo. Such claims can probably be discounted. Hezbollah has not covered up the deaths of senior field commanders in Syria’s various battlefields, and there is no reason why the party would attempt to obfuscate the location of Badreddine’s demise. Hezbollah considers Badreddine a martyr regardless of who killed him and where. Nicholas Blanford is Beirut correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor and Nonresident Senior Fellow of the Middle East Peace and Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security.

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