Back Boris 2012: The re-election campaign for the Mayor of London
www.backboris2012.com To understand what happened in 2012, look at 2008
1st Preference 1st & 2nd Preference Votes Votes
Boris 1,043,761 1,168,738 Johnson (43.2%) (53.2%) Ken 893,877 1,028,966 Livingstone (37.0%) (46.8%) London –a Labour city
Tory 1st Pref. Votes Labour 1st Pref. Votes
Boris 1,043,761 Livingstone 893,877 2008 2008 Norris 542,423 Livingstone 685,541 2004 2004 Norris 464,434 Livingstone 667,877 2000 2000 2008: Doughnut strategy plus the hole
2004 London 2006 local elections 2008 London Mayoral Mayoral first – control of borough first preference votes preference votes by councils by borough borough
www.backboris2012.com 2008 campaign
• Back Boris: A change for the better
• A tale of two Londons – “The public London” and “The London I live in”
• We persuaded swing voters on the issues and motivated Conservative voters to turn out 2012: the national picture Greater London: General election 2010
Party MPs Labour 38
Conservative 28
Liberal 7 Democrat Difficult times
• Recession
• Riots in August 2011
• Cost of living rising
A 17 point Labour lead in London in January 2012 UK Right/Wrong Direction
40% 38% 26% Right Direction 33% 34% 37% 41%
47% 46% 46% Wrong Direction 47% 47% 48% 46%
14% 15% 28% Don't know 20% 19% 15% 12% Definite Voters -7% -8% Total Likely Voters -20% Soft Voters Net -14% -12% Inner London -11% Outer London -5% Inner Definite Q1) Thinking about the UK as a whole, do you believe the country is headed in the rightOuter direction, Definite or seriously headed in the wrong direction? www.backboris2012.com London Right/Wrong Direction
46% 45% 29% Right Direction 37% 40% 46% 46%
38% 37% 39% Wrong Direction 38% 38% 39% 37%
16% 18% 32% Don't know 25% 22% 15% 17%
8% 8% Definite Voters -10% Net -1% Total Likely Voters 2% Soft Voters 7% 9% Inner London Outer London Inner Definite Q2) Thinking about London now, do you believe London is heading in the right or seriously headed in the wrong direction? www.backboris2012.com 2012: the London picture Things that mattered • Value for money • Crime • Transport • Local environment • Housing • Olympic Legacy • Cost of Living • Standing up for London
www.backboris2012.com Most important issue in
determining vote
Q18) If the election for Mayor of London was held today, what is the most important issue that would determine who you would vote for? That issue can be to do with the candidates, local issues, national issues, or anything else that is important to you in determining your vote. Candidates and Issues: Definite Voter Current vote on influence
High vote on influence
Low
KL/Lab. Positioning BJ/Con Positioning Model Accuracy ‘Good’ ~ Reversed negative statement ^ New statement www.backboris2012.com 14
Boris Johnson Swing Ken Livingstone Base Base Age 55+ 45‐54 18‐44
Social Class A, B, C1 C2 D, E
Location Outer London Inner London Location North West; South North East, South West; East Home Ownership Home Owner, Rent from Rent from council/ Own with a someone else LA mortgage Ethnicity White South Asian; Black; Other Asian Religion Christian; Jewish No religion Muslim, Hindu
Gender Male Female ‘Back Boris 2012: My 9 point plan for securing Greater London’s future’ The questions for 2012
• What has he done? • What will he do? www.backboris2012.com Communicating Boris’s Record
• Produced 30 different localised versions of a newspaper • Delivered to 1.8 million homes in priority wards
www.backboris2012.com Communicating Boris’s Record • Front and back pages
www.backboris2012.com Building online presence
Final #AskBoris Chat: ‐reached 628,789 people ‐trended 3rd worldwide and 1st in the UK
By election day: ‐5,262 followers for @BackBoris2012, 300,000 followers for @MayorofLondon ‐140,000+ Facebook likes ‐Weibo account for Chinese Brits www.backboris2012.com Localised content
www.backboris2012.com 347 Priority Wards in 2012
www.backboris2012.com Priority Wards 2012 Swing by ward
2.00%
1.00% 1.42%
0.00% ‐1.25% ‐1.00% ‐3.13% ‐2.00%
‐3.00%
‐4.00% All PNon PAll wards www.backboris2012.com Regulated Period
• The regulated period runs from the time of nomination to Polling Day – a maximum of 44 days (20 March 2012)
• Spending limit is £420,000
• Party Election Broadcast: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LmONVlMkCb U
www.backboris2012.com 2012 results
1st Preference 1st & 2nd Votes Preference Votes Boris 971,931(44 1,054,811 Johnson %) (51.53%) Ken 889,918 992,273 Livingstone (40.3%) (48.47%)
www.backboris2012.com Why did we win? 1. Boris 2. Campaign team 3. Research 4. 9 point plan 5. Can’t trust Ken 6. Visual presence • Postal votes • Electoral roll Why did we win?
‘The Boris factor’ •http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9-d8Dv7T4 Boris Johnson’s Conservatism
•Traditional Conservative values interpreted through modern policies •Urban, metropolitan •Green •Low tax •Socially liberal •OPTIMISTIC Personalities not parties
• Boris v. Ken NOT Conservative v.Labour
• Boris as own voice to national Party and Government, yet campaigned as Conservative • Used independent campaign and research team, yet deployed party grassroots machinery • Personally very popular, even after difficult ‘Tory’ Budget • Ken Livingstone as trade union candidate, not New Labour The Heineken Tory
Boris, "the Heineken Tory" who reaches parts of the electorate that other A leader is a dealer in hope, said Conservatives don't Napoleon. In these tough times Boris is the politician who provides most hope to London and, increasingly, to the grassroots of the Conservative Party."
Boris's appeal stretches beyond London and the core Tory vote Avowedly Conservative with a big C and a small c
Business leaders back Boris to drive recovery Why did we win?
Practical lessons Differentiation
• Candidate v. Party • Mayoral race v. general election • London as international city v. New York
• RESEARCH Boris v Ken
Boris Ken Forward Backwards Positive plans Same old policies For all zones For Zone 1 Unifying Divisive Pragmatic action All talk Champion for all For his cronies Londoners Discipline
• Year of record work
• 9 point plan
• All negative campaigning done by others than candidate The Frame
Choice between moving Greater London forwards with Boris or taking it backwards The vision
Optimistic for London’s future despite difficult times The result
Centre‐right Conservative Mayor of a left Labour city