Region Ucker Mark (RUM)-(North East German Lowlands) A German study site, to support the ILTER network

Interactions between Global Change driven Land Use Changes and its impacts on ecosystem functions and services

Karl-Otto Wenkel, Gerd Lutze and Joachim Kiesel Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis of the Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research Muencheberg ()

Some short introductory remarks to the history of the region

The region Uckermark and the whole North-East German lowlands, are characterised by large anthropogenic landscape formation during the past 300 years. Incisive changes were induced by Frederick William, Elector of (1640-1688) and later by his great-grandson Frederick II of Prussia, also known as Frederick the Great. They forced the ameliorative exploitation of swamp- and wetlands (about 80% of all flowing waters in Brandenburg are man- made), settled foreign colonists (, Dutchmen) and pushed agricultural and forest development during the 17th to 19 th century. In the younger history of the region, the collectivisation of agriculture and the increase of acreage per management unit (since 1952) meant another large impact on landscape features. Finally, since the in 1990, agriculture is about to be transformed into more extensive management systems. Larger parts of the landscape are now put under protection as national parks, biosphere reservations and landscape protection areas, and rivers, brooks and fens are gradually renaturalised.

The Uckermark Multiscale Approach

According to the NWT-LTER (USA), the RUM-LTER approach, presented in this paper, is multi-scaled also. We consider three spatial scales (plot level, landscape level and the regional level). Plot level (1-100 ha): Experimental field stations (Dedelow) and biodiversity-exploratories at the Biosphere Reserve (Schorfheide Chorin)) Landscape level (100- 1000 km2): On this level two areas are being investigated, which are characterized by different land use structure and intensities: - the Quillow watershed (170 km 2) - an area, dominated by intensive agricultural land use and - the Biosphere Reserve “Schorfheide Chorin (1291 km 2)”, a more agricultural extensive used area, which is part of the UNESCO-program “Man and Biosphere”. Regional level (1000-10.000 km 2): On this scale the”, the human-environment-interconnections on regional scale are in focus of the investigations. The region Uckermark (nearly 4.000 km 2), consist of the Ucker watershed and the area of the Biosphere Reserve “Schorfheide-Chorin. The RUM LTER represents a typical young moraine landscape of North-Central Europe, located at the border of subatlantic-subcontinental climate, which is predominantly used by agriculture and forestry. Different intensities of agricultural land use in different areas are main characteristics of the RUM- LTER. Far-reaching changes to the global framework conditions governing land use in the proposed study area: In the region there is to observe a dramatic change of land use structure and intensity (agriculture, forestry, industry, trade and commerce) driven by changes of the economic and climatic frameworks (global change): • the production of food and energy crops became more profitable, but these two competed with one another and with problems of biodiversity and water avaibility • climate change more and more influence the yield stability and farm economy The land applicable for agricultural and forestry use in the study area comes under intense pressure from two sides: • its utilisation as a source to address the growing need for energy and to satisfy the increasing demand for food, • its utilisation as carbon sink (agricultural areas, forests and peat lands are needed to bind CO 2 and other greenhouse gases) A fundamental change in land use now is in motion. The consequences of competition for land now affect all economic and ecological scopes of land use and the rural areas. On the other hand there are dramatic changes in the socio-economic conditions. More and more young people leave the region, which is a region with low population density already today. Other characteristics of the region are the high level of unemployment and the strong degrading of the human outcomes. As a consequence there are to observe strong changes in ecosystem functions and services (some services are degrading, some improving). From the scientific point of view it is to mention, that in the Quillow and Schorfheide Chorin areas long-term environmental monitoring systems are established,which can be used, to find answers to the questions, which are in the focus of the RUM-LTER.

Figure 1. Position of the RUM-LTER within North- Central Europe.

Figure 2. RUM spatial scales of interest.

Figure 3. The nested RUM-LTER approach.

How mentioned above, we have identified three nested levels (Figure 3) for developing feedback loops. These levels comprise the long-term field experiments on the plot scale (L1), the intensive observed and investigated areas Quillow-catchment and Biosphere Reserve “Schorfheide- Chorin” (landscape level (L2)) and the whole region Uckermark (regional level (L3)).

The results of the ecosystem research on the landscape scale together with data from existing long-term monitoring systems in different spatial scales (levels) serve as a framework and baseline of performance for integrating social and natural sciences at the RUM LTER, the development and verification of integrated landscape assessment models and ecosystem theories, but also as basis for the development of integrated management strategies for sustainable use of landscape resources in dependency on global changes (climate, policy, economy).

The approach, presented in figures 1 and 2, illustrate the spatial concept of the RUM-LTER, according to the NWT SES. For each of the investigated research areas (research levels resp.scales), we developed specific versions of the generic LTER model. The baseline for the RUM- research concept are the generic questions from the ISSE framework:

Q 1: How do long-term press and short-term pulse disturbances interact to alter ecosystem and function? Q 2: How can biotic structure be both a cause and consequence of fluxes of energy and matter? Q 3: How do altered ecosystem dynamics affect ecosystem services? Q 4: How do changes in vital ecosystem services feed back to alter human behavior? Q 5: Which human actions influence the frequency, magnitude, and form of press and pulse disturbance regimes within and across ecosystems?

The feedback loop indicates for each level potential points of interaction with the LTER network: Level 1: Interaction of climate, land use structure and management on ecosystem functions (agricultural long-term field experiments at the experimental field station Dedelow; grassland manipulation experiments to study the long-term impacts of different plant diversities and consequences of exclusion existing functional groups on ecosystem functioning (Biodiversity Exploratories at the Biosphere reserve “Schorfheide Chorin”). Level 2: Long-term impacts of different land use structure and intensities on ecosystem functions and services (evapotranspiration, ground water recharge, runoff and water quality, soil erosion, biomass productivity, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic resources, wildlife population, human outcomes (changes of farm economy, per-capita income, rate of unemployment, …), driven by changes of the economical and political frameworks.. Level 3: Integrated impacts of land use and climate change, including human behavior (regulation, amelioration and infrastructure, suburbanization and exurbanization) on ecosystem stability and ecosystem services. Focus: Human-environment-interconnections.

Level 1: Field plots (Dedelow) and Biodiversity Exploratories (Biosphere Reserve “Schorfheide Chorin”-(FPBE-L1))

Narrative: The ecological impacts of climate and land use changes can not been studied in short-term experiments and one single scale, because most of the included processes operate relatively slowly and on large time scales (water and matter fluxes and transport, soil carbon dynamics, …). Therefore, the better understanding of the ecological long-term impacts of different agricultural and forestry land use systems and intensities and the long-term impacts of pulse disruptions of the vegetation structure on ecoton resp. field plot scale, provide the baseline for the RUM-LTER multi-scale approach. On this scale the following questions are of particular interest:

Q 1: How do changes of agricultural land use systems and management intensities influence the ecosystem functions (evapotranspiration, water and matter fluxes and transport, C/N dynamics, organic matter dynamics, ecosystem productivity and yields, energy balance)? Q 2: How do long-term changes of climate and atmospheric depositions affect the vegetation structure, the cropping systems and finally the ecosystem functions and services? Q 3: What are the time-scales in which changes of ecosystem changes can be observed ? Q 4: How do climate and land use changes affect the weed and microbial-community structure? Q 5: What are the long-term impacts of pulse disruptions of vegetation structure (exclusion existing functional groups) and of changes in biodiversity on ecosystem functions and services?

Level 2: (Landscape level): Quillow sub-basin and the Biosphere Reserve “Schorfheide Chorin” zone (QUBR-L2)

Narrative: At this spatial scale the interactions between land use and climate changes, driven by human behavior and its impacts on ecosystem functions, services and human outcomes are in the focus of investigations. We propose to select two sub-areas with different land use structures, which are used with different land use intensities since the reunion of Germany in 1990 (Quillow catchment: high agricultural intensity; Biosphere Reserve “Schorfheide Chorin”: relatively low land use intensity, many parts of this area are used by organic farming, the conservation of nature and environment are the central points for land use decisions). The human driven land use decisions together with climate changes affect the land use functions and services, but also the human outcomes. At consequence of this interconnections we observe dramatic changes in ground water table, improving or lost of biodiversity but also tendencies of degrading infrastructure and depopulation of small villages and towns. Through our long-term investigations in this study areas we hope to find answers to the following questions:

Q 1: How do changes in the economic frameworks caused by global changes and by changes of the EU-policy affect the agricultural and forestry land use systems, the landscape pattern and the human outcomes? Are the expected impacts on landscape structure dependent on soil and climate conditions and on the type of the land use systems (nature conservation versus high economic productivity)? Q 2: How do long term trends in climate interact with extremes in temperature and precipitation and what are the consequences on land use systems, ecosystem structure and functions? Are there to observe shifting of the climate zones and what are the time horizons for such shifting? Q 3: How do different intensive land use systems affect the ecosystem functions and services (on long-term), what are the long-term impacts of renaturation measures on ecosystem functions and services and what that means for human outcome? Q 4: How do ecosystem state changes caused by climate changes and changes in land use structure and intensity affect recreation, aesthetic values, water budget and water quality, and big game (hunting)? Q 5: How are the feedbacks between landscape patterns and community structure (vegetation, animals, microbial communities) and ecosystem functions, affected by pulse and press disturbances (changes of prices, weather extremes, land use and climate changes)? Q 6: How do the residents of and of the rural areas of the state Brandenburg perceive the high quality ecosystem services in the Biosphere Reserve “Schorfheide Chorin”. How will these perceptions affect their current and projected behavior, or how willing are they, to pay for the ecosystem services?

Figure 4. Feedback loop at the landscape scale (Quillow, Schorfheide-Chorin).

Level 3: Uckermark Socio-Ecological System (RUM_SES-L3)

Narrative: On this spatial scale the investigations focus on the human-environmental interconnections. Political decisions and regulations to rural development and expansion of renewable energies (wind power, solar energy, biofuel, biogas), decisions to expansion or degradation of the road and railway infrastructure, recreation and others, together with changes of the global economic frameworks induce shifts in the manpower and population migration, but also changes in the structure and intensity of land use at all spatial scales (Q1). Land use changes and changes in the development of industry (which are also interconnected), degradation or improving of infrastructure and recreation potential, alter the landscape pattern and the hydrological budget. Changes in hydrological budget in this region in turn can create a positive or negative feedback to land use structure, vegetation communities, ecosystem productivity, or improving or degrading of high ecologic valuable peatlands (in dependency of the regional soil-climate conditions (Q2)). (Q3). In particular the loss of valuable agricultural land by urbanization, industrialization and expansion of infrastructure can lead to higher competitions for land, increasing prices and reduced economical efficiency of agriculture. In turn the increased use of biomass to produce fuel and energy can lead to higher crop diversity in crop rotations, better landscape biodiversity and aesthetic quality. The degree to which there is a close coupling between human understanding, perception and human responses to perceived and projected ecosystem services (Q4) will determine the future influence of combined regional (RUM) and global human decisions and actions (Q5). In particular the increased demand for energy in the context of twindling fossil resources and escalating demands for food lead to higher competitions for land and will be of far- reaching consequences to land use structure and the ecosystem functions and services. Capital investments in renewable energies are strong increasing due to political and economical regulations (economic funding and tax relief (German Renewable Energy Sources Act for instance)) and there is a danger of degradation of important ecosystem functions and services. Long-term changes and the sustainable use of natural resources in the RUM SES will depend on, how the suggested socio-ecological interactions are understood and transferred in intelligent human decisions and actions. The Feedback Loop Questions: Q 1: How do political and economical decisions and actions (expansion of renewable energies wind power, solar energy, biofuel, biogas), decisions to expansion or degradation of the road and railway infrastructure, recreation, changes of world market prices for energy, food, wood and fibers)) affect the landscape pattern and the landscape structure and intensity? Q 2: How are the feedbacks between changes of landscape patterns and community structure (vegetation type, patch mosaic, stand structure, animals, and microbial communities) and the ecological and hydrological budgets? Q 3: How do changes of the landscape pattern and the land use structure and intensity (agriculture, forest, renewable energies, infrastructure and industry) affect the ecosystem functions and services (ecosystem productivity and yields, food and energy supply, habitat quality of human population and animals, evapotranspiration, water and matter fluxes and transport, C/N dynamics, biodiversity and genetic resources, energy balance, …)? Q 4: What are the consequences of recent and projected changes in ecosystem services, particular water supply and water quality, biomass productivity and yields and loss of biodiversity and genetic resources on human outcomes? How will the RUM human population respond to recent and projected changes ? Q 5: How will the combination of individual and institutional decisions and actions in the RUM affect the interaction between pulse/press disturbances by influencing landscape configuration, climate change, degradation of water budget and biodiversity and higher demands on food and energy ?

Figure 5. Uckermark Socio-Ecological System (RUM_SES-L3).

Critical Ecosystem Services

Ecosystem Service Direction of Primary drivers of change Public Institutions that change awareness manage this service of service Provisioning Services Food Degrading Climate Change Medium Federeal, State Fiber Degrading Climate Change Medium State Fuel Improving Economic incentives, Land use High Federal Changes Genetic Resources Degrading Land use Changes medium Federal, State Ornamental resources About the same Policy, Economic incentives Low Federal, State, County

Fresh Water Degrading Climate and Land use Changes Medium State Regulating Services Air quality regulation Degrading Emissions High Federal Climate regulation Degrading Climate and Land use Change High Federal Water regulation Degrading Climate and Land use Change High State, county Erosion regulation About same Climate and Land use Change Medium State, county Water purification Degrading Emissions, Climate and Land Medium State, county and waste treatment use Change; Disease regulation Degrading Climate and Land use Change Medium Federal, State Pest regulation Degrading Climate and Land use Change Medium Federal,State, county Pollination Degrading Economic intencives Low Federal Natural hazard Degrading Climate and Land use Change Federal, State regulation Yield degrading, Erosion Forest fires Cultural Services Cultural diversity About the same Migration of young people and Low Federal, State of people of abroad Knowledge systems About the same No directional drivers Low Federal Educational values Degrading No directional drivers Medium state .federal county Inspiration Improving No directional drivers High ? Aesthetic values About the same Land use change Low ? Social relations Degrading No directional drivers Medium ? Sense of place About the same No directional drivers Low ? Cultural heritage About the same Land use Change Low ? values Recreation and Improving Climate Change Medium State, County ecotourism Supporting Services Soil formation Degrading Land use and Climate Change Low Federal, State Photosynthesis About the same Land use and Climate Change Low Federal Primary production Degrading Climate change High Federal , State Nutrient cycling Degrading Land use and Climate Change Medium Federal, State Water cycling Degrading Land use and Climate Change High State, county Knowledge systems About the same No directional drivers Low Federal Educational values Degrading No directional drivers Medium state .federal county Inspiration Improving No directional drivers High ? Aesthetic values About the same Land use change Low ? Social relations Degrading No directional drivers Medium ? Sense of place About the same No directional drivers Low ? Cultural heritage About the same Land use Change Low ? values Recreation and Improving Climate Change Medium State, County ecotourism Supporting Services Soil formation Degrading Land use and Climate Change Low Federal, State Photosynthesis About the same Land use and Climate Change Low Federal Primary production Degrading Climate change High Federal , State Nutrient cycling Degrading Land use and Climate Change Medium Federal, State Water cycling Degrading Land use and Climate Change High State, county Table Fehler! Kein Text mit angegebener Formatvorlage im Dokument. -1: Ecosystem Services UCKERMARK LTER Site

Critical ES within the UCKERMARK LTER Site

Provisioning ES • Food, wood and fuel production: The agricultural and forestry used lands within the RUM-LTER are the main sources for the economy and the income situation for the rural human population locally and regionally. Changes of the political and economic framework and climate conditions governing land use structure and intensity, and are likely to lead to degradation. This may lead to further degradation of the human population density and increasing rates of unemployment in the rural areas.

• Genetic Resources (lost of biodiversity): Within the RUM-LTER we observe a strong change in agricultural and forestry land use structure and intensity since more than three decades (concentration of a few economic important cash crops only), which lead to a degradation of biodiversity and genetic resources more and more.

Regulating Services • Climate regulation: The agroeco- and forest- ecosystems regulate the C-storage but also the water and temperature exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Climate changes and changes in the land use structure and intensity influence the C- storage capacity and the land surface-atmosphere exchange processes. The ability of the RUM agroeco- and forest-ecosystems to climate regulation is likely to be decreased by further changes of regional climate and land use

• Water regulation: Climate and the structure and intensity of the land use systems regulate the regional hydrological cycle (evapotranspiration, runoff, soil water dynamic and ground water recharge). Only with enough ground water discharge from the open agricultural used land, the relatively great percentage of peatlands within the RUM- LTER, which is of high ecologic quality and importance for climate regulation, can be conserved. • Erosion regulating: Climate and the structure and intensity of agricultural land use regulate the magnitude of soil erosion (water and wind erosion). The ability of the agroecosystems to regulate and decreasing soil erosion is likely to be decreased by further climate and land use changes. • Recreation and ecotourism: We expect locally improving of these services in the RUM- LTER region, which is abundant on lakes and small rivers, due to climate change. The services on the other hand are extremely vulnerable to increasing of extreme weather events (storms, rains, temperatures), catastrophic disturbances (forest fires, degrading of water quality) and the degrading of the rural infrastructure.

Supporting Services • Nutrient cycling: Climate and land use changes can lead to degrading of the nutrient cycling. Higher prices for fertilizers lead in tendency to reduced fertilization intensity and in following to reduced soil fertility and loss of yields. Because of the higher degree of energy crop production and the higher percentage of biomass used to biogas and ethanol production in central ethanol- or biogas plants , there is a danger of interrupt the nutrient cycling on plot scale. As a consequence, the nutrient cycling is likely to be decreased.