Industry Insights

Equity Research November 19, 2018

Energy Producers - Junior & Intermediate The Saskatchewan Light - Volume 14 Juan Jarrah, CFA, P. Eng. 403 299 3494 A Comprehensive Provincial Activity Update [email protected] August-October 2018 Dustin Besaw, CFA 403 292 2804 [email protected] Sean Keaney 403 299 3272 [email protected] Aaron Bilkoski 403 299 3294 [email protected] Menno Hulshof, CFA 403 299 8658 [email protected] Keegan Stoyles, P. Geo., CFA (Associate) 403 292 1212 [email protected]

The August-October 2018 time period saw overall licensing tick up by 7% from this time last year, while drilling was down slightly. One trend that is apparent to us is the increase in overall activity (and as such capital) being directed toward Southeast Saskatchewan Mississippian formations (largely the Frobisher and Midale). This is driven by the relative attractiveness of these plays from an economics perspective; however, it is now also being driven in part by mitigated exposure of these assets to currently elevated Canadian light oil differentials. Most of the oil produced in this region is pipeline connected to the TEML Westspur system, which flows directly into the Cromer, MB hub of the Enbridge Mainline System. Due to no apportionments for light oil at Cromer, prices at this hub are trading at an historically high premium relative to other local WCSB benchmarks at Edmonton, AB). Although the timing for normalization of differentials is up for debate and beyond the scope of this report, we have highlighted the logistics and production exposure for key operators in Saskatchewan in our quarterly feature (shown in Exhibits 1-4). Although Q3/18 financials provided a taste of the premium prices these producers received during the quarter, we believe that Q4/18 will result in an even more advantageous financial picture as prices at Cromer look to average C$70/bbl versus Edmonton at C$50/bbl and Fosterton looks to average C$55/bbl versus WCS at C$35/bbl. We believe that publicly-listed producers who stand to benefit the most from the current price dislocation in Western Canada are TOG, CPG, WCP, VET, and SGY (in addition to producers with material non- Canadian volumes, but that is beyond the scope of this report).

Please see the final pages of this document for important disclosure information. Page 1 of 27 November 19, 2018

Saskatchewan Light Quarterly Feature Analysis of Advantageous Saskatchewan Crude Oil Prices

Most Saskatchewan E&Ps now enjoy a strategic price advantage relative to their Alberta peers due to preferential access to un- apportioned pipeline capacity on the Enbridge Mainline at all points downstream of Kerrobert, SK. Canadian light oil differentials have deteriorated since early-September, which now coupled with a weakening WTI price, result in a material impact to corporate cash flows while introducing a new element of volatility to 2019 budgets. However, it is clear from Exhibit 1 below that not all Canadian benchmarks are equal, with meaningful outperformance of the Light Sour Blend (LSB) at Cromer, MB and the Fosterton (FOS) blend that feeds into Regina, SK.

Exhibit 1. Recent Crude Oil Benchmark Prices in the WCSB

$100

$90

$80 WTI (C$)

$70 LSB (C$)

$60

$50 Price per bbl per Price $40 FOS (C$) MSW (C$) $30 WCS (C$) $20 WTI (C$) MSW (C$, Edmonton Par) LSB (C$, Cromer) WCS (C$) FOS (C$)

$10

$0 Jan/17 Mar/17 May/17 Jul/17 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Mar/18 May/18 Jul/18 Sep/18 Nov/18

Source: Company reports, Bloomberg

Not all benchmarks are created equal, as oil produced in Southeast and Southwest Saskatchewan is connected to hubs on the Enbridge Mainline System that is currently shielded from apportionment. Exhibit 2 provides a general overview of the pipeline systems relative to key WCSB play areas. As a reminder, current pipeline apportionment has taken place at Kerrobert, SK, and points upstream (i.e. including Edmonton and Hardisty, AB).

First, we highlight that the majority of oil currently produced in Southeast Saskatchewan is collected through the Tundra Energy Marketing Limited (TEML) Westspur pipeline system, which in turn runs into the Cromer, MB hub of the Enbridge Mainline System. Our understanding is that there are no apportionment concerns at this point, and as such, the LSB benchmark is now trading at a material (~C$35/bbl) premium to the MSW benchmark at Edmonton—when it historically traded at a C$1–C$2/bbl discount. Since oil is sold at month-ahead contracts, we estimate that LSB could average over C$70/bbl for Q4/18, a material premium to MSW (which looks like it could average C$50/bbl for the quarter).

Page 2 of 27 November 19, 2018

Second, all oil currently produced from the Shaunavon/Swift Current area of Southwest Saskatchewan is collected by the Plains South Saskatchewan Pipeline System (SSPS) which connects to the Regina, SK hub of the Enbridge Mainline System. Most crudes produced from this region are medium grade, but priced relative to the Fosterton (FOS) blend which normally trades at a slight C$1–C$2/bbl premium to Western Canadian Select (WCS), which has roughly the same density at about ~21 API. Regardless, the apportionment has resulted in FOS now trading at an ~$15/bbl premium to WCS, and could average C$55/bbl for Q4/18, which ironically translates into a higher price received for the light sweet MSW blend at Edmonton. Clearly, it appears that pipeline access has a more meaningful impact than crude stream quality at this time.

Third, although operators are attempting to truck volumes to points downstream of the apportioned areas, this is costly (refer to Exhibit 2 for rough transportation estimates) and requires a significant amount of trucks and drivers to accomplish. As such, although trucking and blending are options to alleviate some of the challenges facing producers from pipeline constraints, we do not believe that this is a long-term solution.

Exhibit 2. A Lay of the Land — Key Infrastructure Behind Current Canadian Oil Differentials

Est. Trucking Costs to Cromer Athabasca Driving Dist. Estimated Terminal Kerrobert (km) Cost per bbl Edmonton 1,050 $21.00 SE Saskatchewan producers are pipeline connected directly to Medicine Hat 750 $15.00 Viking Cromer via the Westspur Kerrobert 700 $14.00 Pipeline (Cap: 247 mBOE/d) Swift Current 530 $10.60 Regina

Edmonton

Bakken Shaunavon Hardisty Enbridge Mainline: Torquay Lines 1, 2A, 3, and 4, have total Kerrobert capacity of ~1.9mmbbl/d and move most qualities of crude from Edmonton to Superior. Historically high levels of heavier volumes are Regina displacing light barrels leaving excess light/medium capacity at Cromer Cromer. Express Clearbook Terminal: Pipeline Increased volumes from Canada Gretna causing discount to WTI to widen for Bakken producers.

Regina Terminal: Volumes from the Shaunavon Line 81 are pipeline connected directly to MT Clearbrook Regina and are receiving a premium to WCS pricing Dakota (supported by local refining) Access ND MN Superior Pipeline

Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 3 of 27 November 19, 2018

We believe that the market severely overestimates the impact of widening Canadian oil differentials to producers with significant operations in Southwest and Southeast Saskatchewan. Exhibit 3 summarizes the exposure of the key public Saskatchewan-based E&Ps to the various pricing hubs affecting the WCSB (on a run-rate BOE/d basis). Furthermore, although many of these producers have provided additional disclosures to their operations and exposure to these advantaged price points (see our recent notes here: CPG, TOG, WCP, and VET), we do not believe that the market fully appreciates how advantageous this impact will eventually be in Q4/18 (and potentially in Q1/19). We believe that in the short term, this advantageous pricing could result in increased activity in the province and potentially M&A as well, as operators attempt to reduce exposure to Alberta-based development in favour of Saskatchewan.

As suggested in Exhibit 3, the companies with the most to least exposure to favourable pricing points in Saskatchewan are: TOG, CPG, WCP, VET, and SGY.

Exhibit 3. Exposure for Producers with Significant Operations in Saskatchewan

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

30% % Q4/18 of % Production 20% 10%

VET BTE

ERF

GXE SGY

TOG

CPG WCP MSW WCS LSB FOS WTI LLS Clearbrook Other/CBR Gas/NGL

Notes: Other for Vermilion includes European oil sales; SGY Fosterton volumes include an estimated 3,750 bbl/d being trucked from Sparky assets in AB. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

The share price performance of many of the Saskatchewan-focused E&Ps has been only slightly better relative to their Alberta-based peers, suggesting to us that there is a high likelihood of positive cash flow surprises from many of these producers that are, to a certain extent, shielded from the abnormally wide Canadian oil differentials. Since September 6, 2018, many operators with significant leverage to preferential LSB and FOS prices have not meaningfully outperformed pure-Alberta oil-weighted producers. On average, operators with largely Alberta-based production have seen share price performance of -33%. Although most of the operators with production in

Page 4 of 27 November 19, 2018

Saskatchewan have fared slightly better, we do not view this as a material outperformance (although we note that ERF has been the best performer due to higher leverage to U.S. oil price benchmarks, in our view).

Exhibit 4. Share Price Performance of Alberta and Saskatchewan-focused Oil-weighted Producers

30%

20%

10%

-10% ERF VET -20% TOG SGY Share Price Performance Price Share WCP -30% BTE CPG ERF BTE CPG GXE SGY TOG GXE -40% VET WCP AB Average

-50% 09/06/18 09/17/18 09/28/18 10/09/18 10/20/18 10/31/18 11/11/18

Note: Alberta average includes ATH, BNE, CJ, GXO, OBE, PGF, TVE, and YGR. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 5 of 27 November 19, 2018

Licensing and Drilling Activity (Exhibits 5–10) August 1, 2018–October 31, 2018

Overall licensing activity increased by 7% year-over-year. There were a total of 513 new licenses in the province during the period (up from 478 during the same three-month period a year ago). Although licensing activity was down across the Shaunavon (-41%) and the Viking (-14%), operators licensed more wells in the Bakken (+66%), Southeast Saskatchewan Mississippian formations (+64%), and in the Torquay (+23%). Operators continue to allocate increasing amounts of capital toward Southeast Saskatchewan, which has been further justified by access to favourable Cromer (LSB) prices, which are trading at a historically high premium to Edmonton Light and somewhat insulated from ongoing challenges with elevated Canadian light oil differentials. We continued to see many key operators in this area (including Crescent Point, Vermilion, Whitecap, TORC, and Astra) licensing a higher-than-normal number of wells, which is a function of advantageous LSB pricing at Cromer, in our view. Other noteworthy licenses during the period include a Lower Shaunavon license by Full Circle Energy (private), which is far outside of the southwest corner of the play and could validate more resource in this direction. Aldon Oils (private) also licensed two new Bakken wells in the Freda Lake area. In addition, Enerplus continues to license additional Ratcliffe wells in the Neptune area.

Overall drilling activity was down 5% from the same period a year ago, with 533 wells drilled during the period. Activity was up in all of our sub-areas except in the Viking (-26%), including: Southeast Saskatchewan Mississippian (+48%), Bakken (+9%), Shaunavon (+5%), and the Torquay (+5%). Although the Viking continues to account for the largest portion of drilling activity (40%), Southeast Saskatchewan Mississippian was a close second, accounting for 37% of all wells drilled during the period. This is a trend that we could see continue through the winter as Viking production is largely tied to MSW oil pricing, while producers in Southeast Saskatchewan are currently receiving much higher realized prices.

630 wells released from confidential status (that include production data). Once again, the Viking accounted for the largest portion of new well data (278 wells or 44%). That said, there were several interesting new data points, specifically in the Torquay and Southeast Saskatchewan Mississippian formations. In the Torquay, TORC had the top well on an IP90 basis during the period (released from confidential status on August 8), producing 179 BOE/d.

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Exhibit 5. Overall Licensing and Drilling Activity (August 1–October 31, 2018)

104-N-15 104-P-14 94-N-13 94-O-15 R13 R1W6 R1W5 R1W4 R1W3 R1W2 R23 R13 R1W1

104-N-14

104-K-2

104-C-6

103-K-11

103-C-14 102-O-5

Viking 102-I-4 92-D-12

Wells Licensed (Aug. 1- Oct. 31, 2018) ` Wells Spud (Aug. 1- Oct. 31, 2018) Wells Off Confid. (Aug. 1 – Oct. 31, 2018)

Bakken

Shaunavon

Torquay

Viking Shaunavon Bakken Torquay SE Sask Miss. Other Total Licensing Activity Crescent Point Enrg Corp 8 27 28 13 42 3 121 Teine Enrg Ltd 64 - 1 - - - 65 Baytex Enrg Ltd 51 - - - - 3 54 Vermilion Enrg Inc - - 1 - 46 - 47 Whitecap Rsrcs Inc 17 - - - 10 3 30 Ridgeback Rsrcs Inc - - 16 - 4 - 20 Other 51 6 18 3 100 18 196 Grand Total 191 33 48 16 198 27 513 Wells Spud Crescent Point Enrg Corp 37 31 25 20 50 - 163 Teine Enrg Ltd 102 - - - - - 102 Baytex Enrg Ltd 45 - - - - 6 51 Vermilion Enrg Inc - - 1 2 45 - 48 Whitecap Rsrcs Inc 4 2 - - 10 12 28 Other 24 7 9 2 89 10 141 Grand Total 212 40 35 24 194 28 533 Wells Off Confidential Status (With Production Data) Crescent Point Enrg Corp 41 32 30 14 59 3 179 Teine Enrg Ltd 105 - - - - - 105 Baytex Enrg Ltd 58 - - - - 2 60 Whitecap Rsrcs Inc 33 5 - - 3 19 60 Vermilion Enrg Inc - - 1 - 50 1 52 Other 41 7 13 5 96 12 174 Grand Total 278 44 44 19 208 37 630

Source: geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 7 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 6. Viking Licensing Activity (August 1–October 31, 2018)

VIKING WELLS LICENSED AND SPUD TREND OF WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018)

70 36 25 Teine Licences Teine Spuds 60 Licensed 50 Spud New Production Data 40 ` 30 20 10

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

70 60 Baytex Licences Baytex Spuds 50 40 30 20 10

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

LICENSING & DRILLING ACTIVITY 45 Whitecap Licences 40 200 Whitecap Spuds Viking - Licensed Viking - Spud 35 180 30 160 25 20 140 15 120 10 5 100 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 60 Jan-14

Wells Licensed or Spud 40 25 20 ISH Licences ISH Spuds 20 0

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17

Sep-17 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-18

May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-14 10

WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018) 5

Licensed Spud 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Turnstone Jan-14 Other 18% Enrg Inc 8 ISH 5% (34) 3% (6) Other 5% Turnstone Enrg Inc Licences (11) 7 Teine 34% (11) Turnstone Enrg Inc Spuds Turnstone (64) 6 Turnstone Enrg Inc 3% (6) Enrg Inc Crescent 6% (11) P. 17% 5 (37) ISH 7% Teine 48% 4 (14) (102) 3 2 Whitecap Baytex 9% (17) Baytex 21% (45) 1

27% (51) 0

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 8 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 7. Shaunavon Licensing Activity (August 1–October 31, 2018)

SHAUNAVON WELLS LICENSED AND SPUD TREND OF WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018)

120 Crescent P. Licences Crescent P. Spuds 100 80 Licensed 60 Spud 40 New Production Data ` 20

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

18 16 Surge Licences Surge Spuds 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

LICENSING & DRILLING ACTIVITY 2 100 Shaunavon - Licensed Shaunavon - Spud Full Circle Enrg Ltd Licences 90 Full Circle Enrg Ltd Spuds

80 1 70 60 50 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

30 Jul-14

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

Wells Licensed or Spud 20 5 10 Vital Licences Vital Spuds 4 0

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17

Sep-17 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-18

May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-14 2

WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018) 1

Licensed Spud 0

0% (0)

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Vital 3% (1) Vital 3% (1) Jan-14 Full Circle Full Circle Enrg Ltd Enrg Ltd 3% (1) Whitecap 3% (1) Surge 12% Surge 13% 5% (2) Full Circle Enrg Ltd 3% (1) (4) (5)

Crescent P. Crescent P. 82% (27) 78% (31)

Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 9 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 8. Bakken Licensing Activity (August 1–October 31, 2018)

BAKKEN WELLS LICENSED AND SPUD TREND OF WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018) 60 Crescent P. Licences Crescent P. Spuds Licensed 50 Spud 40 New Production Data 30 ` 20 10

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

14 Ridgeback Rsrcs Inc Licences 12 Ridgeback Rsrcs Inc Spuds 10 8 6 4 2

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

LICENSING & DRILLING ACTIVITY 3 60 Aldon Licences Aldon Spuds Bakken (SK) - Licensed Bakken (SK) - Spud 2 50

40 1

30 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

Wells Licensed or Spud 10 2 Vermilion Licences 0 Vermilion Spuds

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17

Sep-17 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-18

May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018)

Licensed Spud 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Vermilion Jan-14 2% (1) Vermilion Ridgeback Rsrcs Inc 26% (9) 3% (1) Aldon 4% (2) Ridgeback Rsrcs Inc 26% (9) Ridgeback Rsrcs Inc Crescent P. 34% (16) 60% (28) Crescent P. 71% (25)

Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 10 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 9. Torquay Licensing Activity (August 1–October 31, 2018)

TORQUAY WELLS LICENSED AND SPUD TREND OF WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018)

35 Crescent P. Licences Crescent P. Spuds 30 25 Licensed 20 Spud 15 New Production Data ` 10 5

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

3 Vermilion Enrg Cda Ltd Licences 2 Vermilion Enrg Cda Ltd Spuds

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

LICENSING & DRILLING ACTIVITY 25 TORC Licences 40 20 Torquay (SK) - Licensed Torquay (SK) - Spud TORC Spuds 35 15

30 10

25 5

20 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

10 Wells Licensed or Spud 5

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17

Sep-17 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-18

May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018) Licensed Spud

TORC 6% TORC 8% Vermilion Enrg Cda Ltd 8% (2) Vermilion (1) Vermilion (2) Enrg Cda Enrg Cda Ltd 13% Ltd 8% (2) (2)

Crescent P. 81% Crescent P. (13) 83% (20)

Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

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Exhibit 10. Conventional Mississippian Licensing Activity (August 1–October 31, 2018)

SE SASKATCHEWAN MISSISSIPPIAN WELLS LICENSED AND SPUD TREND OF WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018) 60 Vermilion Licences Vermilion Spuds Licensed 50 Spud 40 New Production Data 30 ` 20 10

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

50 45 Crescent P. Licences 40 Crescent P. Spuds 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

LICENSING & DRILLING ACTIVITY 20 18 TORC Licences 120 16 TORC Spuds SE SK Mississippian - Licensed 14 SE SK Mississippian - Spud 12 100 10 8 80 6 4 2

60 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

40 Jul-14

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

Wells Licensed or Spud 6 20 Whitecap Licences Whitecap Spuds

0 4

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17

Sep-17 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-18

May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-14 2 WELLS LICENSED & SPUD BY OPERATOR (TOP 5 IN AUG - OCT 2018)

Licensed Spud 0

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-18

Crescent 7 Vermilion Other 30% 23% (46) P. 26% Astra Oil Corp Licences (58) (50) 6 Astra Oil Corp Spuds Other 36% 5 (72) 4

Astra Oil 3 Astra Oil Corp 5% 2 Corp 5% Crescent (9) Vermilion (10) TORC 9% P. 21% TORC 11% 23% (45) 1 (18) (42) Whitecap (22) Whitecap 5% (10) 0

5% (10)

Apr… Oct… Apr… Oct… Apr… Oct… Apr… Oct… Apr… Oct…

Jan… Jan… Jan… Jan… Jan…

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-14 Jul-17 Jul-18

Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 12 of 27 November 19, 2018

Land Sale Activity October 2, 2018 Results from the October 2, 2018 Saskatchewan Crown land sale (link), included a total bonus of $2.1 million across 17,466 acres in leases. 10,000 acres received no acceptable bids.

Below are the key highlights from the land sale:

 The total proceeds of $2.1 million (average of $122/acre) were well below the year-to-date average of $7.1 million.

 In our view, the most interesting results were near North Dodsland, where 5.75 sections were acquired for $0.4 million (average of $103/acre). Notable operators near the acquired lands include NAL Resources (private), Teine Energy (private), Steelhead Petroleum (private), Saturn Oil & Gas, and Baytex Energy (Exhibit 11). Steelhead acquired 3.5 sections close to some of its existing land and production base for $0.2 million ($102/acre), NAL Resources picked up a quarter section for $0.1 million ($715/acre) to fill in its ownership of a section, while Saturn Oil & Gas acquired two sections for $29/acre. Offsetting the lands acquired by Steelhead, we note that its 0.5-mile Viking wells have had average IP90 rates of between 50–60 bbl/d. Results from Baytex and Teine offsetting the lands acquired by Saturn have shown more variation in IP90s with a range of 20–60 bbl/d, with a mix of 0.5 mile and slightly longer ERH wells.

 The rest of the acquired rights were scattered across the province, generally receiving low dollar-per-acre metrics and no noteworthy parcels to highlight.

 The next Saskatchewan Crown land sale is scheduled for December 4, 2018.

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Exhibit 11. Notable Land Sale Transactions — North Dodsland Viking

3.5 Section Steelhead Petroleum $0.2 million ($102/acre) 0.25 Section NAL Resources 2 Section $0.1 million ($715/acre) Saturn Oil & Gas $0.1 million ($29/acre)

Baytex and Teine Viking Hz's Kerrobert IP90: 20-60 bbl/d

Steelhead Viking Hz's IP90: 50-60 bbl/d North Dodsland

Dodsland

Source: geoSCOUT, Government of Saskatchewan, TD Securities Inc.

Page 14 of 27 November 19, 2018

Production Highlights and Distribution (Exhibits 12–18) Production Data as at September 30, 2018

Viking. During this period, Whitecap accounted for all of the top five wells on an IP90 basis, including the top well which had an IP90 of 175 BOE/d (47% liquids) and was located in the Whiteside area. In addition, Whitecap accounted for all five top wells on a 12-month cumulative basis, averaging 48.4 mBOE (52% higher than the company’s ERH type curve of 31.8 mBOE). Lastly, we note that the overall Viking productivity has improved meaningfully during this period, highlighted by an P50 IP90 that was 15% higher than the previous 12 months (55 BOE/d versus 48 BOE/d), as shown in Exhibit 15.

Shaunavon. Crescent Point accounted for all five top wells during this period, which averaged 179 BOE/d on an IP90 basis. Crescent Point also accounted for all five top wells on a cumulative 12-month production basis, averaging 60.7 mBOE. As shown in Exhibit 16, average Shaunavon well rates during this period have been slightly higher than the previous 12 months, with better well rates generally occurring in the southern half of the play.

Bakken. Crescent Point accounted for all top five wells on an IP90 basis (average of 172 BOE/d) and cumulative 12-month production basis (average of 48.6 mBOE). Recent Bakken production rates appear to be largely in line with the previous 12-month period, as shown in Exhibit 17.

Torquay. TORC had the top two wells and the fourth best well on an IP90 basis, which had an average rate of 146 BOE/d. The top well was located in the Tableland area and had an IP90 of 179 BOE/d. Crescent Point accounted for the remaining top wells on an IP90 basis. On a 12- month cumulative basis, Crescent Point accounted for four of the top five wells, averaging 53.5 mBOE. Meanwhile, TORC had the third best well, which produced 52 mBOE during the first 12 months. Although a small sample set, recent Torquay production rates have jumped meaningfully during this period, as shown in Exhibit 18.

Conventional Mississippian. The best well on an IP90 basis was a Frobisher well drilled by Adonai Resources (private) that averaged 271 BOE/d, (90% liquids) and is located in the Workman area. Astra (private) had the second best well, which averaged 268 BOE/d (81% liquids) on an IP90 basis. Aldon Oils (private) had two of the top five wells (both Frobisher in the Browning area), averaging 215 BOE/d. Hunter Oil & Gas had the top well on a cumulative 12-month basis (130.5 mBOE), a Midale well at Alameda; however, this was surprisingly mostly reported as natural gas (97%). Astra, NAL, TORC, and Vermilion each accounted for one well on a cumulative basis, which produced 88.7 mBOE over the first year on average. Production rates among Southeast Saskatchewan Mississippian formations were largely in line with the previous 12-month period, as shown in Exhibit 19.

Page 15 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 12. Top 5 Wells (Based on IP90 Calendar Day Rate) at the Wellhead by Formation/Area

Viking Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Whitecap Whitecap Whitecap Whitecap Whitecap On Production Jun 20, 2018 Jun 11, 2018 Sep 6, 2017 Jul 27, 2018 Jul 21, 2018 Off Confidential Date Jun 27, 2018 Jun 25, 2018 Aug 15, 2018 Aug 17, 2018 Jul 29, 2018 Cdr.Rate (IP90, BOE/d) 175 144 130 130 127 2 Wellhead Liquids % 47% 85% 78% 93% 93% Days On (First 3 Mo) 72 80 89 65 72 4 5 TVD (m) 736 694 702 682 683 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,596 1,217 1,592 1,288 1,582 Formation Viking Viking Viking Viking Viking 1 Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV Area Whiteside Kerrobert Whiteside Dodsland Dodsland 3 Unique Well ID 102/11-03-030- 101/03-23-032- 101/16-29-029- 102/07-16-031- 102/13-09-031- 25W3 23W3 23W3 21W3 21W3 Shaunavon Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. On Production Jul 16, 2018 Jun 25, 2018 Jul 20, 2018 Jul 15, 2018 Jul 14, 2018 Off Confidential Date Apr 3, 2018 Mar 27, 2018 Apr 5, 2018 Apr 4, 2018 Mar 27, 2018 Cdr.Rate (IP90, BOE/d) 207 204 164 161 158 Wellhead Liquids % 96% 91% 95% 90% 97% Days On (First 3 Mo) 77 79 73 77 79 TVD (m) 1,425 1,367 1,433 1,430 1,424 2 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,537 1,499 1,344 1,491 1,421 Formation Shaunavon Shaunavon Shaunavon Shaunavon Shaunavon Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV Area Eastend Leitchville Eastend Eastend Eastend 4 3 Unique Well ID 102/16-09-005- 101/14-32-008- 102/04-15-005- 101/15-29-005- 102/08-09-005- 5 1 20W3 19W3 20W3 20W3 20W3 Bakken Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. Ridgeback On Production Jun 1, 2018 Jun 15, 2018 Jul 11, 2018 Jun 6, 2018 Jul 24, 2018 1 2 Off Confidential Date Mar 2, 2018 Mar 11, 2018 Jul 25, 2018 Apr 8, 2018 Aug 2, 2018 5 Cdr.Rate (IP90, BOE/d) 209 177 168 158 147 Wellhead Liquids % 99% 98% 96% 99% 100% 4 Days On (First 3 Mo) 91 77 81 87 69 TVD (m) 1,427 1,450 1,682 1,503 1,434 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,531 1,546 1,548 1,375 2,391 Formation Bakken Bakken Bakken Bakken Bakken Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV 3 Area Viewfield Viewfield Viewfield Viewfield Viewfield Unique Well ID 101/16-04-011- 101/16-05-011- 102/03-11-007- 101/15-17-010- 102/02-02-011- 06W2 06W2 10W2 06W2 06W2 Torquay Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator TORC TORC Crescent P. TORC Crescent P. On Production Sep 8, 2017 Jul 23, 2018 Jul 25, 2018 Jul 21, 2018 Jul 14, 2018 Off Confidential Date Aug 8, 2018 Jun 30, 2019 Mar 13, 2019 Jun 6, 2019 Apr 9, 2018 Cdr.Rate (IP90, BOE/d) 179 132 132 128 105 Wellhead Liquids % 84% 85% 89% 85% 80% Days On (First 3 Mo) 74 69 63 70 76 TVD (m) 2,146 2,110 2,128 2,181 2,252 3 2 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,485 1,494 1,411 1,558 1,578 Formation Torquay Torquay Torquay Torquay Torquay 1 Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV Area Tableland Tableland Tableland Tableland Tableland 4 101/02-20-002- 101/02-32-002- 101/03-34-002- 101/13-03-002- 102/03-24-001- Unique Well ID 5 11W2 11W2 13W2 11W2 12W2 Other SE Sask Mississippian Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Adonai Astra Vermilion Aldon Aldon On Production Jun 26, 2018 Jun 18, 2018 Jul 12, 2018 May 28, 2018 May 23, 2018 Off Confidential Date Jun 17, 2019 Jul 5, 2018 Jul 1, 2018 Jun 21, 2018 Jun 14, 2018 4 Cdr.Rate (IP90, BOE/d) 271 268 225 216 214 5 Wellhead Liquids % 90% 81% 91% 97% 91% 2 Days On (First 3 Mo) 40 66 80 60 65 TVD (m) 1,404 1,428 1,398 1,362 1,371 3 Est. Lateral Length (m) 896 695 1,522 614 687 Formation Frobisher Frobisher Midale Frobisher Frobisher Lahee Class OTH DEV DEV DEV DEV 1 Area Workman Steelman Steelman Browning Browning Unique Well ID 101/09-03-002- 101/10-35-004- 101/01-01-004- 103/12-11-006- 101/04-11-006- 01W2 06W2 04W2 07W2 07W2

* Non-confidential wells brought on production from May 2018 to July 2018 with data through September 2018. Also includes wells released from confidential status between August and October 2018. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 16 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 13. Top 5 Wells (Based on Cumulative 12-month Production) by Formation/Area

Viking Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Whitecap Whitecap Whitecap Whitecap Whitecap On Production Aug 12, 2017 Feb 2, 2018 Jan 14, 2018 Aug 11, 2017 Aug 1, 2017 Off Confidential Date Aug 19, 2017 Feb 12, 2018 Feb 4, 2018 Aug 31, 2017 Aug 22, 2017 F12Mo Cumul. (mBOE) 63.7 49.3 44.2 42.5 42.4 Wellhead Liquids % 81% 98% 64% 75% 78% Days On (First 12 Mo) 349 238 234 355 358 2 TVD (m) 695 673 733 742 701 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,601 1,559 1,636 1,249 1,619 4 3 5 1 Formation Viking Viking Viking Viking Viking Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV Area Whiteside Dodsland Whiteside Whiteside Whiteside Unique Well ID 101/12-05-030- 102/09-02-031- 102/06-03-030- 102/13-05-030- 102/12-05-030- 24W3 21W3 25W3 25W3 24W3 Shaunavon Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. On Production Oct 1, 2017 Sep 14, 2017 Oct 1, 2017 Nov 12, 2017 Sep 8, 2017 Off Confidential Date Sep 9, 2017 Aug 26, 2017 Sep 2, 2017 Nov 18, 2017 Aug 4, 2017 F12Mo Cumul. (mBOE) 64.0 60.7 60.2 60.0 58.8 Wellhead Liquids % 91% 97% 92% 98% 88% Days On (First 12 Mo) 361 340 359 318 354 TVD (m) 1,413 1,404 1,413 1,434 1,451 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,391 1,495 1,651 1,487 1,504 Formation Shaunavon Shaunavon Shaunavon Shaunavon Shaunavon 4 Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV 5 Area Rapdan Rapdan Rapdan Eastend Rapdan 1 102/12-28-004- 102/04-10-004- 101/02-28-004- 102/13-10-006- 102/16-31-004- 3 Unique Well ID 2 20W3 20W3 20W3 20W3 19W3 Bakken Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Crescent P. Ridgeback Crescent P. Crescent P. Crescent P. On Production Sep 8, 2017 Oct 26, 2017 Aug 16, 2017 Nov 1, 2017 Oct 19, 2017 1 5 Off Confidential Date Sep 1, 2017 Oct 2, 2017 Jul 19, 2017 Oct 24, 2017 Sep 13, 2017 F12Mo Cumul. (mBOE) 58.8 48.5 47.6 45.0 43.3 2 Wellhead Liquids % 96% 99% 87% 72% 98% Days On (First 12 Mo) 355 336 349 316 324 3 TVD (m) 1,463 1,419 1,565 1,634 1,436 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,512 2,568 1,522 1,487 1,484 Formation Bakken Bakken Bakken Bakken Bakken 4 Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV Area Viewfield Viewfield Viewfield Viewfield Viewfield Unique Well ID 101/16-32-010- 101/06-11-011- 101/13-23-008- 101/12-18-007- 101/15-04-011- 06W2 06W2 09W2 07W2 06W2 Torquay Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Crescent P. Crescent P. TORC Crescent P. Crescent P. On Production Oct 19, 2017 Sep 9, 2017 Aug 25, 2017 Aug 17, 2017 Feb 27, 2018 Off Confidential Date Oct 12, 2017 Sep 30, 2017 Jul 14, 2018 Aug 15, 2017 Mar 7, 2018 F12Mo Cumul. (mBOE) 68.6 52.0 51.9 46.9 46.4 Wellhead Liquids % 82% 91% 85% 85% 85% Days On (First 12 Mo) 338 283 306 323 199 TVD (m) 2,263 2,233 2,194 2,249 2,303 Est. Lateral Length (m) 1,604 1,341 1,427 1,352 1,371 Formation Torquay Torquay Torquay Torquay Torquay Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV 3 2 Area Tableland Tableland Tableland Tableland Tableland 1 Unique Well ID 101/03-23-001- 101/04-33-001- 101/14-04-002- 101/15-29-001- 101/16-11-001- 4 5 12W2 12W2 11W2 12W2 12W2 Other SE Sask Mississippian Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Operator Hunter O&G NAL Vermilion Astra TORC On Production Jan 10, 2018 Sep 15, 2017 Aug 2, 2017 Dec 1, 2017 Nov 21, 2017 Off Confidential Date Apr 15, 2017 Sep 23, 2017 Aug 18, 2017 Dec 12, 2017 Dec 15, 2017 F12Mo Cumul. (mBOE) 130.5 102.5 94.5 82.3 75.5 Wellhead Liquids % 3% 89% 39% 71% 91% 5 Days On (First 12 Mo) 225 344 272 248 312 2 TVD (m) 1,514 1,137 1,354 1,526 1,354 3 Est. Lateral Length (m) n/a 773 1,571 1,569 685 Formation Midale Frobish./Alida Midale Midale Frobisher 4 Lahee Class DEV DEV DEV DEV DEV 1 Area Alameda Nottingham Steelman Alameda Browning Unique Well ID 101/14-26-002- 104/08-18-005- 102/13-10-004- 101/14-30-002- 101/04-25-005- 03W2 33W1 03W2 04W2 06W2

* Non-confidential wells brought on production from August 2017 to September 2018 with data through September 2018. Also includes wells released from confidential status between August and October 2018. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 17 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 14. Viking Well Results and Distribution Analysis

VIKING IP90 (BOE/d) Heat Map *

Percentile

80-100%

60-80%

40-60%

20-40%

0 - 20%

IP90 (BOE/d) Percentile Plot Comparison 100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50% New Well Data* (80-100%) Percentile 40% New Well Data* (60-80%) 30% New Well Data* (40-60%) New Well Data* (20-40%) 20% New Well Data* (0-20%) 10% TTM Data (May 1, 2017 - Apr. 31, 2018)

0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 IP90 Rate (BOE/d)

* Non-confidential wells brought on production from May 2018 to July 2018, with data through September 2018. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 18 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 15. Shaunavon Well Results and Distribution Analysis

SHAUNAVON IP90 (BOE/d) Heat Map *

Percentile

80-100%

60-80%

40-60%

20-40%

0 - 20%

IP90 (BOE/d) Percentile Plot Comparison 100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

Percentile 40% New Well Data* (80-100%) New Well Data* (60-80%) 30% New Well Data* (40-60%) 20% New Well Data* (20-40%) New Well Data* (0-20%) 10% TTM Data (May 1, 2017 - Apr. 31, 2018) 0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 IP90 Rate (BOE/d)

* Non-confidential wells brought on production from May 2018 to July 2018, with data through September 2018. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 19 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 16. Bakken Well Results and Distribution Analysis

BAKKEN IP90 (BOE/d) Heat Map *

Percentile

80-100%

60-80%

40-60%

20-40%

0 - 20%

IP90 (BOE/d) Percentile Plot Comparison

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

* Non-confidential wells brought on production from May 2018 to July 2018, with data through September 2018. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 20 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 17. Torquay Well Results and Distribution Analysis

TORQUAY IP90 (BOE/d) Heat Map *

Percentile

80-100%

60-80%

40-60%

20-40%

0 - 20%

IP90 (BOE/d) Percentile Plot Comparison 100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

Percentile 40% New Well Data* (80-100%) 30% New Well Data* (60-80%) New Well Data* (40-60%) 20% New Well Data* (20-40%) 10% New Well Data* (0-20%) TTM Data (May 1, 2017 - Apr. 31, 2018) 0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 IP90 Rate (BOE/d)

* Non-confidential wells brought on production from May 2018 to July 2018, with data through September 2018. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 21 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 18. Conventional Mississippian Results and Distribution Analysis

SE SASKATCHEWAN MISSISSIPPIAN IP90 (BOE/d) Heat Map *

Percentile

80-100%

60-80%

40-60%

20-40%

0 - 20%

IP90 (BOE/d) Percentile Plot Comparison 100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

* Non-confidential wells brought on production from May 2018 to July 2018, with data through September 2018. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

Page 22 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 19. Summary Provincial Statistics

CURRENT PERIOD VERSUS HISTORICAL STATISTICS HISTORICAL LAND SALE RESULTS - PROVINCE WIDE HORIZONTAL DRILLING COMPARISON - STUDY AREA

2.6 $500 3,000 Total Acres Sold (mm) 2.4 # of Exploration Wells # of Development Wells Total Bonus $450 2.2 $xx Avg. Price per Acre 2,500 $400 2.0

1.8 $350 2,000 1.6 $300 Total Bonus (mm)

1.4 $200 $250 1,500 1.2 $413 $108 $200

1.0

Historical Wells Drilled Wells Historical Total Acres Sold (mm) Sold Acres Total $156 1,000 0.8 $150

0.6 $400 $127 $100 0.4 $172 500 $245 $194 $50 0.2 $204

0.0 $0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AGGREGATE PRODUCTION - PROVINCE WIDE HISTORICAL SASKATCHEWAN RIG COUNT - PROVINCE WIDE

700,000 40% 100 Other Torquay Shaunavon 90 Viking 35% 600,000 Bakken Bakken Contribution (%) Viking Contribution (%) 80 Shaunavon Contribution (%) 30% 500,000 Torquay Contribution (%) 70 2013 25% of Total % Production 2010 60 400,000 2009 2011 2018

20% 50 2012 Rig Count Rig 300,000 40 2014 15% 2016

Aggregate Production (BOE/d) Production Aggregate 2017 200,000 30 10% 2015 20 100,000 5% 10

0 0% 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009 2016 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018

Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, Verdazo, TD Securities Inc.

Page 23 of 27 November 19, 2018

Exhibit 20. Historical Saskatchewan-focused M&A

PRECEDENT SASKATCHEWAN TRANSACTIONS Date Value Production 1P Res. 2P Res. EV/Prod'n EV/1P EV/2P WTI NYMEX Acquirer Target Deal Type Announced $mm BOE/d % Gas mmBOE mmBOE $/BOE/d $/BOE $/BOE US$/bbl US$/mcf Viking Baytex Energy Corp. Raging River Exploration Corporate 6/18/2018 $1,912.0 24,500 7% 84.0 109.3 $78,041 $22.76 $17.50 $65.85 $2.95 Raging River Exploration Northern Blizzard Asset 11/28/2016 $58.0 600 3% 4.1 5.8 $96,667 $14.15 $10.00 $47.08 $3.23 Raging River Exploration Whitecap Resources Asset 7/21/2016 $25.1 100 0% n/a n/a $251,000 n/a n/a $44.75 $2.69 Teine Energy Penn West Petroleum ****** Asset 6/10/2016 $975.0 16,300 9% n/a 53.2 $59,816 n/a $18.33 $49.07 $2.56 NAL Resources Husky Energy Asset 6/6/2016 $102.0 1,470 45% n/a n/a $69,388 n/a n/a $49.69 $2.47 Raging River Exploration Rock Energy ***** Corporate 6/1/2016 $109.0 2,550 5% 11.4 17.1 $42,745 $9.56 $6.38 $49.01 $2.38 Raging River Exploration Anegada Energy Corp. Corporate 12/11/2015 $125.5 2,750 42% n/a 10.0 $45,645 n/a $12.55 $35.62 $1.99 Raging River Exploration Touchstone Exploration Asset 8/4/2015 $4.2 n/a n/a 0.4 0.9 n/a $9.91 $4.52 $45.74 $2.81 Whitecap Resources Beaumont Energy Corporate 3/18/2015 $587.5 5,100 4% 27.2 31.5 $115,196 $21.60 $18.67 $44.66 $2.92 Raging River Exploration Surge Energy Asset 2/9/2015 $35.6 600 0% n/a 2.8 $59,333 n/a $12.71 $52.86 $2.60 Crescent Point Energy Polar Star Asset 6/12/2014 $342.2 2,800 0% 8.7 13.0 $122,206 $39.33 $26.32 $106.53 $4.76 Whitecap Resources Home Quarter Resources Corporate 11/20/2013 $327.6 4,000 24% 9.2 14.3 $81,908 $35.78 $22.92 $93.33 $3.67 Surge Energy Privateco. Corporate 10/22/2013 $147.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a $97.80 $3.58 Raging River Exploration Enerplus Asset 10/22/2013 $105.0 900 17% 3.4 4.6 $116,667 $30.70 $22.70 $97.80 $3.58 Yanchang Petroleum Novus Energy Corporate 9/3/2013 $320.0 4,051 17% 14.9 22.7 $78,990 $21.54 $14.09 $108.54 $3.67 Whitecap Resources Unspecified Asset 4/29/2013 $110.0 900 5% 3.6 4.5 $122,222 $30.18 $24.49 $94.50 $4.39 Whitecap Resources Invicta Energy Corp. Corporate 3/18/2013 $63.5 500 20% 2.6 3.0 $126,954 $24.30 $20.85 $93.74 $3.88 2018 Viking Total/Average $1,912.0 24,500 84.0 109.3 $78,041 $22.76 $17.50 $65.85 $2.95 2016 Viking Total/Average $1,269.1 21,020 15.5 76.1 $69,884 $21.18 $16.69 $59.10 $2.80 2015 Viking Total/Average $752.8 8,450 27.6 45.2 $88,594 $21.42 $16.66 $43.55 $2.75 2014 Viking Total/Average $342.2 2,800 8.7 13.0 $122,206 $39.33 $26.32 $106.53 $4.76 2013 Viking Total/Average $1,073.1 13,800 33.7 49.2 $89,469 $27.49 $18.83 $99.06 $3.74 Total Viking Total/Average $5,349.2 67,121 169.5 292.7 $77,442 $24.19 $17.30 $67.96 $3.10 SE Saskatchewan Conventional TORC Oil & Gas Villanova 4 Oil Corporate 8/8/2018 $62.0 1,000 n/a n/a 4.0 $62,000 n/a $15.50 $66.94 $2.95 Undisclosed Crescent Point Asset 6/19/2018 $55.0 1,600 10% n/a n/a $34,375 n/a n/a $65.07 $2.90 TORC Oil & Gas Crescent Point Asset 5/9/2018 $224.9 3,200 5% n/a 15.5 $70,281 n/a $14.51 $71.14 $2.74 Vermilion Energy Spartan Energy Corporate 4/16/2018 $1,400.0 23,000 9% 73.0 113.5 $60,870 $19.18 $12.33 $66.22 $2.75 Vermilion Energy Undisclosed Corporate 1/15/2018 $90.8 1,150 0% n/a 6.7 $78,957 n/a $13.55 $64.30 $3.20 Cardinal Energy Undisclosed Asset 12/12/2017 $22.5 390 0% n/a 2.4 $57,692 n/a $9.50 $57.14 $2.68 Whitecap Resources Cenovus Energy Asset 11/12/2017 $940.0 14,800 0% 92.3 121.4 $63,514 $10.18 $7.74 $56.74 $3.21 TORC Oil & Gas Undisclosed Asset 11/3/2017 $15.0 200 0% n/a n/a $75,000 n/a n/a $55.64 $2.98 Cardinal Energy Apache Corp. ******* Asset 6/1/2017 $252.6 2,850 0% n/a 18.4 $88,632 n/a $13.73 $48.36 $3.01 TORC Oil & Gas Undisclosed Asset 5/10/2017 $29.1 650 10% 1.3 2.0 $44,769 $22.38 $14.55 $47.33 $3.29 Spartan Energy ARC Resources Asset 11/17/2016 $700.0 7,500 2% 26.9 39.3 $93,333 $26.02 $17.81 $45.42 $2.70 Crescent Point Energy Husky Energy Asset 8/11/2016 $211.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a $43.49 $2.55 Spartan Energy Kinwest 2008 Energy Asset 8/4/2016 $24.0 450 7% 4.8 5.7 $53,333 $4.95 $4.18 $41.93 $2.83 TORC Oil & Gas Zargon Oil & Gas Asset 7/25/2016 $89.5 1,120 5% n/a 5.1 $79,911 n/a $17.41 $43.13 $2.75 Spartan Energy Harvest Asset 6/29/2016 $62.2 1,500 1% n/a 7.2 $41,467 n/a $8.67 $49.88 $2.86 Spartan Energy Unknown Asset 6/29/2016 $9.5 150 0% n/a n/a $63,333 n/a n/a $49.88 $2.86 Spartan Energy Wyatt Oil + Gas Corporate 5/19/2016 $77.0 1,330 24% 8.8 14.6 $57,895 $8.70 $5.26 $48.16 $2.04 Unspecified Penn West Petroleum Asset 10/1/2015 $205.0 2,500 0% n/a n/a $82,000 n/a n/a $44.74 $2.43 Crescent Point Energy Legacy Oil + Gas* Corporate 5/27/2015 $1,530.0 22,000 4% 62.1 102.7 $69,545 $24.64 $14.90 $57.51 $2.82 TORC Oil & Gas Surge Energy Asset 4/27/2015 $430.0 4,750 3% 12.5 21.9 $90,526 $34.40 $19.63 $56.99 $2.49 TORC Oil & Gas Midale Petroleum Corporate 2/5/2015 $127.7 1,550 4% 4.4 5.9 $82,387 $29.02 $21.64 $50.48 $2.60 Crescent Point Energy Lightstream Resources **** Asset 9/2/2014 $378.4 3,300 5% 8.6 13.2 $114,667 $44.00 $28.67 $92.88 $3.89 Crescent Point Energy T.Bird Oil Corporate 8/13/2014 $88.0 700 n/a 2.2 3.6 $125,714 $39.61 $24.73 $97.59 $3.83 Spartan Energy Unknown Asset 7/7/2014 $17.3 150 n/a n/a n/a $115,000 n/a n/a $103.53 $4.23 Crescent Point Energy Painted Pony Petroleum *** Asset 7/7/2014 $100.0 980 4% n/a 5.3 $102,041 n/a $18.87 $103.53 $4.23 Spartan Energy Lightstream Resources Asset 5/27/2014 $98.0 1,000 4% n/a 3.9 $98,000 n/a $25.13 $104.11 $4.51 Legacy Oil + Gas Highrock Energy Corporate 5/7/2014 $193.9 2,000 1% n/a 7.5 $96,942 n/a $25.71 $100.77 $4.74 Crescent Point Energy CanEra Energy Corporate 4/23/2014 $1,114.1 10,000 4% 34.4 52.1 $111,405 $32.39 $21.38 $101.44 $4.73 Vermilion Energy Elkhorn Resources Corporate 3/18/2014 $400.0 3,750 3% 10.3 16.5 $106,667 $38.92 $24.24 $99.70 $4.46 Spartan Energy Renegade Petroleum ** Corporate 2/11/2014 $495.0 5,200 3% 16.0 21.7 $95,192 $31.00 $22.81 $99.94 $4.82 Surge Energy Renegade Petroleum Asset 1/14/2014 $109.0 1,225 4% 3.4 4.6 $88,980 $32.05 $23.70 $92.59 $4.37 Spartan Energy Renegade Petroleum Asset 12/12/2013 $32.5 370 5% n/a 2.7 $87,838 n/a $12.04 $97.50 $4.41 TORC Oil & Gas Pengrowth Energy Asset 7/16/2013 $510.0 5,700 7% 15.4 21.3 $89,474 $33.12 $23.94 $106.00 $3.68 2018 SE Sask Conventional Average $1,832.7 29,950 93.6 139.7 $61,192 $19.18 $13.12 $66.72 $2.78 2017 SE Sask Conventional Average $1,259.2 18,890 93.6 144.2 $66,660 $10.35 $8.63 $54.84 $3.16 2016 SE Sask Conventional Average $1,173.9 12,050 40.6 72.0 $79,851 $19.73 $13.23 $45.28 $2.65 2015 SE Sask Conventional Average $2,292.7 30,800 79.0 130.5 $74,438 $26.43 $16.00 $55.88 $2.71 2014 SE Sask Conventional Average $2,993.6 28,305 74.9 128.4 $105,762 $34.52 $23.18 $99.57 $4.54 2013 SE Sask Conventional Average $727.3 7,845 15.4 33.1 $92,705 $33.12 $21.97 $102.69 $3.77 Total SE Sask Conventional Average $10,279.4 127,840 376.5 647.9 $80,408 $22.18 $15.08 $72.51 $3.38 Bakken/Torquay Gear Energy Ltd. Steppe Resources Corporate 7/23/2018 $70.4 1,175 1% n/a n/a $59,915 n/a n/a $67.89 $2.72 Questerre Energy Unknown Asset 11/26/2017 $7.3 180 n/a n/a n/a $40,278 n/a n/a $58.95 $2.81 Spartan Energy Unknown Asset 5/10/2017 $6.5 30 n/a n/a n/a $216,667 n/a n/a $47.33 $3.29 Unspecified Questerre Energy Asset 12/2/2014 $7.0 77 0% n/a 0.3 $90,909 n/a $27.15 $66.88 $3.87 Crescent Point Energy CanEra Energy Corporate 4/23/2014 $1,114.1 10,000 4% n/a 52.1 $111,405 n/a $21.38 $101.44 $4.73 Steppe Resources Williston Hunter Canada Corporate 4/21/2014 $75.0 630 n/a n/a n/a $119,048 n/a n/a $104.37 $4.70 Total Bakken/Torquay Average $1,280.2 12,092 n/a 52.4 $105,872 n/a $21.41 $99.06 $4.59 Shaunavon Whitecap Resources Husky Energy Asset 5/10/2016 $595.0 11,600 2% 51.6 79.1 $51,293 $11.54 $7.52 $44.66 $2.16 Surge Energy Cenovus Energy Asset 6/11/2013 $240.0 3,600 0% n/a 10.6 $66,667 n/a $22.60 $95.38 $3.72 Total Shaunavon Average $835.0 15,200 51.6 89.7 $54,934 $11.54 $9.31 $59.24 $2.61 Total / Average $17,744 222,253 597.6 1082.6 $78,203 $21.47 $15.57

* Includes the Turner Valley asset which is not separated from the total ** Includes Greater Dodsland Viking which is not separated from the total *** Includes Bakken which is not separated from the total **** Includes 44 net sections of freehold land deemed at $50mm and an asset consideration deemed at $3.4mm ***** Includes 450 bbl/d of Viking light oil and 1,950 bbl/d of heavy oil production ****** As per Teine press release. Includes 50% Dodsland Viking light oil and 8.5% GORR ******* Excludes estimated value attributed to AB assets (House Mountain) valued at $36,000/BOE/d. Source: Company reports, geoSCOUT, TD Securities Inc.

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TD Securities Equity Research Disclosures

Distribution of Research Ratings^ Investment Services Provided*

75% 66.22% REDUCE - 1.9% NOT RATED - 0.3% 50%

BUY - 65.7% 32.43%

25% HOLD - 32.0%

0.68% 0.68% 0% BUY HOLD NOT REDUCE RATED

Current as of: November 19, 2018

^ Percentage of subject companies under each rating category: BUY (covering ACTION LIST BUY, BUY and SPECULATIVE BUY ratings), HOLD, and REDUCE (covering TENDER and REDUCE ratings). * Percentage of subject companies within each of the three categories (BUY, HOLD, and REDUCE) for which TD Securities Inc. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months.

Definition of Research Ratings ACTION LIST BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15% (with higher thresholds for less liquid, more risky securities) over the next 12 months and it is a top pick in the Analyst's sector. BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 10% (with higher thresholds for less liquid, more risky securities) over the next 12 months. SPECULATIVE BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 30% over the next 12 months (with higher thresholds for less liquid securities); however, there is material event risk associated with the investment that could result in a significant loss. HOLD: The stock's total return is expected to be between 0% and 10%, (with higher thresholds for less liquid, more risky securities) over the next 12 months. TENDER: Investors are advised to tender their shares to a specific offer for the company's securities or to support a proposed combination reflecting our view that a superior offer is not forthcoming. REDUCE: The stock's total return is expected to be negative over the next 12 months. SUSPENDED: Due to evolving circumstances, we can no longer generate what we consider a defensible target price and rating at the current time. UNDER REVIEW: Our rating is under review pending additional information and/or analysis. The prior rating should not be relied on. Overall Risk Rating in order of increasing risk: Low (6.4% of coverage universe), Medium (37.7%), High (47.2%), Speculative (8.4%) Research Dissemination Policy TD Securities makes its research products available in electronic and/or printed formats and as soon as practicable distributes them to its institutional clients who are entitled to receive them. The Action Notes are distributed by email, and are available in PDFform on Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ and FactSet. Research Reports are distributed by email; they are also printed and distributed by courier to our entitled clients. PDFs of Reports are available on Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ and FactSet. All research is available by password to entitled institutional clients at https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities

Analyst Certification Each analyst of TD Securities Inc. whose name appears on page 1 of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within the analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.

Disclaimer This material is for general informational purposes only and is not investment advice nor does it constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a particular financial instrument. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk profile or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this material. No representation is made that the information contained herein is accurate in all material respects, complete or up to date, nor that it has been independently verified by TD Securities. Recipients of this analysis or report are to contact the representative in their local jurisdiction with regards to any matters or questions arising from, or in connection with, the analysis or report. Historic information regarding performance is not indicative of future results and investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. All investments entail risk, including potential loss of principal invested. Performance analysis is based on certain assumptions, the results of which may vary significantly depending on the modelling inputs assumed. This material, including all opinions, estimates and other information, constitute TD Securities’ judgment as of the date hereof and is subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this material can fall as well as rise. Any market valuations contained herein are indicative values as of the time and date indicated. Such market valuations are believed to be reliable, but TD Securities does not warrant their completeness or accuracy. Different prices and/or valuations may be available elsewhere and TD Securities suggests that valuations from other sources be obtained for comparison purposes. Any price or valuation constitutes TD Securities’ judgment and is subject to change without notice. Actual quotations could differ subject to market conditions and other factors. TD Securities disclaims any and all liability relating to the information herein, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for, statements contained in, and omissions from, the information. TD Securities is not liable for any errors or omissions in such information or for any loss or damage suffered, directly or indirectly, from the use

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