www.policy-network.net e: [email protected] +44(0)2073402211 f: t: +44(0)2073402200 United Kingdom SW1P3QB Street11 Tufton Second floor Policy Network policy network paper After : Between Britain andEurope Britain Between A NewAssociation Agreement October 2016 October Andrew Duff

2 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October Federal Trust. Hetweets @AndrewDuffEU a Liberal Democrat MEP, president ofthe UnionofEuropean Federalists, anddirector ofthe Andrew isavisiting Duff fellow at the European CentrePolicy in Brussels. He was formerly About theAuthor argues that Brexit offers thechance and for bothBritain ofafreshEurope. start and the EU,United Kingdom and make a recommendation on what this should be. Third, it will work inpractice. Second, itexplores theoptionsfor anewrelationship between the First, itexamines why theEUallows oneofitsmemberstates to leave 50 itandhow Article This essay looksat thesituation inmore detailfrom andEuropean boththeBritish angle. said andwritten, notallofitaccurate. 50–aboutwhichmuchhasbeen constitutional device –Article for dealingwiththerift Luckily, althoughBrexit isahugereversal for offortune theEuropean Union,ithasa Europe thestrategic willhave with Britain majorlong-term rift consequences. clear. Yet for thescaleofrisk state theBritish anditspeopleisstillunclear. For therest of will. As Prime Minister Theresa May solucidlyputsit, “Brexit meansBrexit”. That muchis The people have British voted tofor leave their country the European leave Union. So it Summary George Hodan Cover imagecredit: www.policy-network.net

policy network paper PART 1: ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT ARTICLE 50

Article 50 in theory: origin and rules

The founding fathers of the were building for the future. The early treaties spoke of ‘destiny henceforward shared’ and ‘ever closer union’. The European Community (then Union) was

designed to widen its membership and deepen its integration simultaneously, in parallel. Despite paper policy network a number of political setbacks and economic difficulties, each successive treaty conferred new competences on the European Union and accorded its institutions new powers. Although Norway and Iceland baulked at membership, the rest of the continent has sought to join the EU, succeeded in joining, or still seeks to join. Enlargement is one of the EU’s fundamental missions, projecting and sharing its values of peace, liberal democracy and the rule of law to southern and eastern Europe. EU membership remains open to any European state that can match and promote its values (Article 49 TEU). The way the EU has conducted its enlargement policy over 40 years, growing from six member states to 28, is generally thought to have been a great success.

It was in that spirit of optimism that the Convention of 2002-03, which had been established to write a new constitution for the enlarged Union, decided to make a provision for a member state to secede. The first proposals for a secession clause came from the federalists in the Convention.1 They argued that as the EU was about to make a decisive step forward in a federal direction it was expedient, as well as democratic, to let any current member state which chose not to accept the federalist advance to step aside without causing an insuperable obstacle to the wishes of the integrationist minded states. The idea of a safety valve attracted the eurosceptics in the Convention, many of them from central and eastern Europe who were not fully reconciled to sacrificing their national sovereignty to Brussels having just regained it from Moscow. The Germans were at first very much opposed to the inclusion of a secession clause until the Convention decided to concede to a British request that the constitution should allow not only for the powers conferred on the Union to be increased but also for competences to be repatriated back to member states.2 The UK itself preferred to have a provision for the formal voluntary withdrawal of a state in order to preclude the possibility of the peremptory expulsion of a state found to be in error by its partners. It was left to Valéry Giscard d’Estaing himself, president of the convention, to add the stipulation that the withdrawal agreement had to be concluded within two years. Article 50 is the result, finally entering into force as part of the in December 2009.

Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be

concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified 1. Namely, Andrew Duff CONV 234/02, 03-09-02 and Robert majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. Badinter CONV 317/02, 30-09-02. 2. A concept now enshrined in Article 48(2) TEU.

3 | After Brexit: A New Association Agreement Between Britain AND Europe | October 2016 www.policy-network.net declaration: following the issued 27 leaders remaining the meeting, the left had once Cameron and, note Brexit of immediate Council European the took UK’s of the notification formal intention the of withdraw.to But short fell This going. was that UK the newspapers: in the read already what had surely they to his confirmed colleagues merely Cameron office leaving in disgrace, council so.at European the do before At not did he appearance his last event in the 50 avote of immediately to leave.Article However, in fact broken, promise another to trigger promised had Cameron Minister Prime campaign, referendum the During headlines. 2016June the hit voted to leave article obscure EU, the rather people British the this and hitherto as we know, But, 23 on used. to it be 50 ever can have expected Article of authors the of None later than sooner triggered be should why it and practice in 50 Article 4 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October and obligations. Access acceptance obligations. freedoms. and all requires of four to Market Single the as UK athird the country, with rights of abalance on concluded have will based to be be will which Any agreement, intentions in its this respect. to stating UK the forward “4. EU the of we look and to have we partner hope future, as UK aclose the In the Treaties.the in accordance role Parliament European playCommission full will the with their and European the process further the In UK. the with anagreement of negotiations the for guidelines adopt will the Council European received, been has “3. notification the Once place.taken has this notification before kind any of negotiations no be can There as possible. as quickly done be should This Union. Council European UK’s the of the intention togovernment to from notify withdraw is It upto British this the process. basis for legal 50 the TEU provides Article fashion. EU the in anorderly from UK the of withdrawal to the organise is aneed There “2. obligations. and to comes it rights when Until leaves UK the EU, the people. both EU law UK, continues the to within and to apply British the of by amajority expressed will the we respect but UK in the referendum the outcome of the regret Commission, European Council European deeply the the of and “1. We, State States, of 27 of as Government Presidents well Heads as the or the Member shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49. to in Article referred to procedure the subject shall be request to its rejoin, asks Union the 5. aState from If has withdrawn which Union. European 238(3)(b)accordance Article with Treaty the of the of Functioning the on in defined be shall majority Aqualified it. concerning in decisions or Council European Council discussions the in of or the shall participate not State Member withdrawing the CouncilCouncil the of representing or European the of 3, 2and member the paragraphs of Forpurposes 4. the decides this to extend period. unanimously State concerned, Member the with council, in agreement the 2, unless European paragraph to in referred notification the after or, years into agreement force withdrawal two that, the of failing entry of Treaties3. The date the to shall from State cease the to apply in question www.policy-network.net

policy network paper but a huge distraction. ahuge but is nothing Brexit which –for to east the insecurity and terrorism immigration, illegal euro, refugees, the of continuing the EU remaining the of instability least –not agenda the upon press matters Other Union. to the also of limit but collateral to rest the damage commitments membership its from UK the to extricate only not 50 is designed Union: European Article the of whole the for crisis is a unilateral a major not event, but exclusively interest to of British, the Brexit preposterous. 2017 in November government German new the of formation the until after is simply left be 50 best can that invocation the Article of remainers, British by some peddled therefore, idea The us”. of to rest the leave, for “Although EU has the decided remains indispensable country one in Bratislava 16 to themselves: on remind meeting, September, necessary it found 27 the leaders EU the have that summit British fear the At into crisis. and second treason, bundled anexistential their Albion Britain’s Great as la perfide reputation has quite forgotten hostility. Nobody revengeand for civility and to regret tempted replace sorely be will 27 partners erstwhile its of some UK, the of EU. the of out part toUK the the pull on lastly, And procrastination pledge with her faced on May is reneging that Theresa is it suspected if aroused be will party, Conservative the without and within both might intercede Brexiteers, At in Italy, ire the of the others Spain. and home, Greece for scheduled Germany are 2017,already Franceand Netherlands, the in elections Difficult Brexit. and by across asEU growwill Europe the as long remains elsewhere destabilised Britain from spreading economy. investor damage British in confidence the infection riskof nationalist The further will Prevarication negotiations. in the progress to make ready swift be will sides that both hopes One 3February. on Valletta for 27 the of scheduled government of heads meeting ‘informal’ at next the discussed to be Tusk, to Donald it council, European for the in of time president letter her toIdeally, send needs she uncertainty. way legal to dispel some go should and announcement is awelcome That March. of end the that intends revealed she minister to 50 invoke before prime the Article 2October On 50 is triggered. until and unless Europe Article with relationship future its about mind make really not will that upits UK the in Brussels lurks suspicion the of Channel, the both sides on even welcomed, be tolerated, can period reflection ashort while 50. invokes she Nevertheless, Article before besides else everyone and party her and herself prepare to time of abit needs minister prime that new the vote. aNo is it understandable for So whatsoever however, plans possible, imagined contingency no made had also government that was British the had few What correct. absolutely was to EU membership alternative coherent no prospectus had that leavers the referendum in the campaign by remain the that made transpires accusation It the should be possible. of Europe’s British (and problem of Britain’s European problem) based on a new relationship settlement durable some that but signed; treaty Anglo-EU other no 1973be can before there enjoyed it status country third the regains UK the until that fair; but tough be will agreement withdrawal the that Union; European the of way out legal only the is 50 is that Article leaders Central to thesis the of the 29 that of remains orthodox. June is it this statement considered, and since, cuff the off both many have government of statements Although other heads made situation.” 5 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October peoples. We stand ready to tackle any difficulty that may arise from the current the current that from arise may any difficulty to tackle ready We stand peoples. 21st the of challenges the our nations and of interest in the solutions find and century EU the of to with deal framework in the work to and We united remain are determined Union. European the creates for situation anew referendum UK outcome the of “5. The . Some see Brexit as as Brexit see . Some www.policy-network.net

policy network paper 50 agreement. as to was it that just accede –and Article is the to secede is needed treaty Anew EU membership. (in EU of from UK to breach the withdraw law), bymembership UK of itself enough be not will it but accession.of Conversely, treaty to the the to repeal simply effect 1972operation will disrupt the Act gaveEC in 1973 merely legal EC the Act parliament: of by not act by and royal prerogative done was to note, EU. however, the of out is It isthat important UK headed the that UK’s the accession to the 1972 Communities toEuropean Act the axe has minister decided prime The guarantee as anearly EU the to UK. cease treaties the shallwhen to simply apply or, into agreement agreement, force no of asuccessful withdrawal of case in the at entry the either later,time, years’ only come will withdrawal in two EU. the from actual UK probably the withdraw The intention government’s to her notifying merely May be will does, she when as and Furthermore, Brexit. on going right to get May the by Theresa denying electorate own their of will to countermand expressed the ready be 421 like MPs, Clarke, Keneth will voted to leave pro-European bravest of the EU the Only 23 June. on of House Commons’ 650 Of the that makewill it constituencies, much material difference. doubts 50. outcome, one Whatever legal the invocation the Article of for requirements constitutional UK’s arewhat of the matter the on in December decide will court anyIn supreme UK the case, referendum by David Cameron. upto run the -in the party any political from other objection obvious –without repeated often was and manifesto, election Tory in also the was party decide people the to commitment let The sovereignty. parliamentary bypassing werethey effectively referendum In/Out the device of the sanctioned all parties MPs from decisive. When at was least overwhelming not cent, while per four than that that 2015 higher the of at nearly inwas fact victory, margin of the and election; general at over cent, voter 72 fraud; turnout, per to electoral subject not was referendum The legislation. in the wasestablished hurdle majority qualified or turnout for threshold No Commons. the of 2015 9 June on reading second votes to 53, by 544 to a later, reference no made vote confirmatory by MPs at passed referendum, Brexit the that introduced Act EU the thing, For Referendum one 50. invocation as the Article of authority executive of exercise by such asuperogatory jeopardised be will sovereignty parliamentary national of principle that and the ‘advisory’ merely was statutory, albeit that referendum, the assertion the on does it as resting than robust, less looks case legal their sense, democratic may they talking be Although Commons). of (or Westminster the of parliament House the of say-so at the least step, without as anadministrative matter constitutional to royal prerogative treat such animportant delegated under minister’s powers prime the of an abuse is argument that nubbe their of would it The alone. minister 50 by prime the invocation the Article of against are litigating English in the court high UK, EU other nationals and British in the citizens resident certain representing lawyers, of A number accordance Britain’s with requirements. constitutional own in made Britain’s as been long 50 as withdraw has to by decision Article EU law to trigger effect direct with council, European the is of empowered as amember minister, prime The capacity in her not make any difference vote will aparliamentary for challenge legal why the 50: Article totrigger How 6 “of the House of Commons’ 650 constituencies, 421 voted to leave the EU on 23 June” |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October www.policy-network.net

policy network paper Cameron’s abortive ‘renegotiation’ of February 2016. ‘renegotiation’ February of Cameron’s abortive re-open not will It membership. under obligations and rights to its relieve of UK in order the with things that those have with deal will dealt to to be agreement note that withdrawal the isIt important hostage. others the to hold able be will state one No foreseen. statesnot is member remaining of the parliaments national by the ratification disruption, or to extend sanctions. to or extend disruption, without concluded to be warrant arrest aEuropean justice of or allow at court litigation current the to Transitional example for UK. in EU the of required, be measures will agencies location the and justice, of pensions),their court at European the judges MEPs British of British of and withdrawal the EU, in nationals the resident British of the officials inrights British of EU status institutions the (and reciprocal hopefully the and EU of UK in the rights acquired citizens living the EU the budget, from UK’s the items include will The contributions to payments and intractable. none but complex, them European parliament, in particular, will be preoccupied by the budgetary issues, although another another although issues, by budgetary the preoccupied in particular, be will parliament, European MFF 2021 the of revision for in the take part not will course, of The beyond. and UK, The authorities. local and universities Britain’s for farmers, has it to upsupport pick before transition of period Treasury allow would HM and asmoother budget, the of EUthe structure having to whole rejig the avoid would That that of until period. end the receipts and payments commitments, current all its Financial Framework Multi-Annual current (MFF) 2014-20 that from runs accordingly to and meet the of to part UK the stay is for over arise will solution money. simplest problems The trickiest The vote votes (including the MEPs). British of majority by simple acting consent asked to to agreement, give be will the its negotiations, in the as possible have will which as closely involved parliament, European the At itself that concluded. stage shall be to Council the that agreement the commission well, the propose will all goes if years, two Within comment, none is Anglophobe. media to some contrary again diligent –and, and negotiator. are experienced men All three Brexit its to be Verhofstadt Guy leader Liberal the hasteam; nominated parliament European the the commission’shead to appointed been negotiating has Barnier official;Michel leading as their council by European the appointed has been Seeuws Didier Brexit. of in charge be over should who commission Council the and between war aturf about speculation press idle some has been There operations. commission monitor the liaise and with to committee special own its mandate the by appoint QMV council and agree will mandate. The May, anegotiation Theresa toof it prepare to commission, authorise the and issue will guidelines participation the by without consensus acting London, from notification formal the having received 218 apply, will internationalof negotiations in Article down as laid TFEU. council, European the So the for conduct procedures normal the Otherwise votethan unanimity.rather majority by qualified (d) and parliament, council European allows the the to anagreement for conclude role a decisive to the and council role toEuropean issue guidelines),notification (to specific receive the (c) confirms (b) gives a start, the from state member in that seceding (a) the it out are abnormal procedures kicks specialis unclear. 50 is alex being for 50 Article criticised have been Article of authors The discuss to issues and decision-making work: will 50 Article How a negative resolution or, resolution a negative likely, less act. alegislative of form in the in of terms either to agreement vote get withdrawal the on certainly will Westminster parliament QMV (minus 20 of super 27 consent the the of only At the Brits) that the states. point, – needing 7 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October “if political will prevails, there is no reason why the technical side cannot be concluded well within the period” two-year 6 3 To by Council the act will agreement, the close 5 It will stick to fairly technical matters, some of of some matters, technical to fairly stick will It 4 Deliberately, however, separate , and its its , and European patents court. and theChemicalsbranch ofthe European Agency Medicines Authority,Banking the 6. Notably, theEuropean March 2016. Policy Network, UK-EU dealanditsconsequences, comprehensive assessment ofthe special status inEurope: A Andrew5. See Duff, Britain’s treaty. power to blockany international House ofCommons hasthe and Governance 2010,the Act 4. Since theConstitutional Reform 20-11-10. Agreement, Journal, L304, Official laid down inanInter-Institutional international negotiations are involvement innormal 3. The modalitiesofparliament’s www.policy-network.net

policy network paper Union Act 2011, Act Union ever to for Britain’s suppress in order itch chronic to have Europe. on referendums European the MEPs, and more electing of 2002, burden the to prevent voters from in order British the Act Parliament European Elections the both quickly fairly to repeal need will UK the addition, In anyof EU law kept. is to be substance the where needed be therefore will legislation secondary or primary UK new transposed: into EU so are not law, UK regulations used transposed are already frequently more recently the is EU that complication while directives time. One some for parliaments Westminster devolved and into has entered force.exercise any In agreement both the is event, likely preoccupy filleting the to 50 1972 Communities Article European the the Act has before recognised, repealed be cannot government British the to which ditch. to and which As keep, to which amend deciding at present, than more the systematically it to tothat apply regulations fillet and proceed 1200 EU directives to be able Untilwillnot UK nature Britain’s the of the EU the with relationship is clarified, future gaps. regulatory to and and avoid vacuum sides both on legal invented to be disruption of pain to the bridge ease or apasserelle any In event,obligations. expect MFF. current the of until end the quicker UK’s the to be will It abolish its than to disentangle rights to cleave adecision programme to EU current the example, well, for budget mightwhich suit very 218(5)Article device –alegal aninternational of agreement application provisional the allows for in place. are put until delayed arrangements new as such the time be (that should Brexit) true is, 50 agreement into force Article the of Alternatively, that entry the considered. agreed could it be have -will to be agiven period for union measures –such customs as the maintaining temporary and Interim solutions base. legal another under agreement into forcepolitical anew of entry the 50 and EU Article the under exiting between period to transition the regard with issueA big arises union), customs EconomicEuropean Areaor even atimetable. with the Turkey) market via with single the atof as, times, membership (for example, precise to very the partnership’ even or ‘privileged USA, the as with as 29 of ‘core June, (‘close partner’ rhetorical partner’ merely the from could range paragraphs those of format the But makeand a recommendation. in below Part options the examine relations. future Two,We for framework skeletal on the flesh put can agreement withdrawal the more the be, that what on should relationship Brussels and London consensus between way greater political level the of that the towards relationship. point The afresh agreement in the paragraphs be should that there implies It importance. critical of –and delicate [Britain’s] for account framework the of Union”. the with relationship “taking future is more This 50(2)be shall stuff,concluded says Article technical the agreement that beyond Abovethe and period atransition towards future: the for Framework period. two-year the within well concluded be cannot side why technical reason is the no there prevails, will political if but 50 negotiations, Article the of thrown course upin the problems unexpected to be are certain There in May round come 2019.elections next the when by British the vacated 73 the seats to what with spare do concerns be will its of 8 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October “The greater“The the level of political consensus London between and Brussels on what that relationship should the be, more the withdrawal agreement can put flesh on the skeletal framework forfuture relations.” 7 com, 31-08-16. lining to theBrexit cloud, Euractiv. Andrew7. See Duff, The silver www.policy-network.net

policy network paper an extension would be a hostage to fortune, provoking every other state to demand concessions. to demand state other every provoking to fortune, ahostage be would an extension 27 for the Any among UK). the (plus request by unanimity only but extended be can 50 negotiation Article the for period two-year treaty. trade The anew on agreement of perspective no and matters technical testy the on agreement no is simply there in which one bad is third the scenario The disintegration. not is integration, Union the of goal the And permissible. treaties to tends be its under thatin isprohibited which which not Theresa May says, “Brexit means Brexit”. means May “Brexit says, Theresa day 2019 one in case, early the being That to EU As brought the astop. of be will membership British ahappy of ending. that UK has the prospects few with towilling contemplate negotiation another is in Brussels nobody Brits: the for deals having upof to special EU do the of fed is rest already the that to know needs UK The extension. no be would there relations, deteriorating of context the In and a change of government –or, government of achange and likely, less referendum. second outcome of a adifferent election ageneral Presumably, Commons of after avote either by House anew this imply would according made to UK’s the been had requirements. constitutional heart of that change the agree justice) of court have the of would to intervention the with leave. council European (possibly The intention its of to – to revoke notification earlier the apologies profuse with – doubtless partners has to and ask its Brexit about mind its changes simply UK the in which arises scenario A second years. for possibly unavoidably delayed, be would Brexit cases, both In revised. to be need would treaties themselves the or agreement the either with the notwas EU treaties, compatible to that find draft the court were the circumstances, those 218(11)). (Article 50 agreement Article adraft against justice of in Luxembourg court European the In to to appeal impelled EU state) all the of felt or institutions one or (still a member UK the at this stage if be would first 50. The Article under to to afailure reach agreement are germane scenarios Three agreement? no there’s if happens What agencies. its and commissionthe in Brussels many for to years out that farmed have negotiations been trade and responsibilities regulatory the to meanwhile,take substantially have over will in Whitehall, to expand machinery government The possible under Article 49. Article under possible 50, accession of as a revocation just is Article under possible is perfectly secession of revocation 9 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October 10 Contrary to general knowledge, the EU works to law common aculture of EU the works knowledge, to general Contrary 8 9 But a But 11 11

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policy network paper on Brussels in meeting Council July: 18 first his after to media the is speaking he Here anyone with deals’ meets. he trade ‘jumbo of cheerfully talks secretary, foreign Johnson, Boris thought. wishfully unilateral decision, for amatter are merely of justice. of court European the of to EFTA the jurisprudence the follows which itself court as well as subjecting to EU the institutions, sovereignty national of surrender acomplete UK the for represent would EEA the of membership Brussels, from control’ back ‘taking from far it: in making havepolicy, but part no have to accept members EU EEA law, competition movement people. of of and aid state including involve also would it but to continued freedom EU contribution the the budget aconsiderable carry of EEA the membership would only Not option. Norwegian the out rule effectively politics domestic any In thanhas it itself. deal however, case, to not abetter UK allow the anxious British be will EEA, the to EU the acceptable 27, be would option that EEA the Norway although assumes One world. the of rest the with policies trade independent pursue can members its union, customs isin the not EEA the As market. single UK’s the the of retaining thereby Area, membership Economic European the of commerce British sakeof the is membership for solution optimum The services. provide who is it people mobility: labour with comes at, good are British the which in services, competition and movement labour. of establishment of Freedom access allowed free the accepts be it unless market to single the therefore not will It obligations. to have without rights expect cannot UK The example. to their follow that tempt others deal would want to not will a She give British state. the member as thanhas afull it had state an ex-member deal as better a offered be not will UK the stated, has repeatedly Merkel as Angela hand, one the carefully. drawn be will relationship On new the for EU as the far 27As parameters the is concerned 163 with schedules countries. WTO other its to renew trying be UK would the while to or the US China, it applied as goods British on tariffs same the impose would that EU means the agreement trade free no EU with the rules Falling remains obscure. WTO on back with relationship its while Britain with deal to willing sign upto trade be will anew third country no because least not EU the UK, is essential the for less thanis it for agreement anew getting So to go Britain. EU, the with cent EU of eight per are traded only exports services Britain’s and goods 45 cent of per about whereas EU the with is asymmetrical: trade that its by fact the complicated Britain’s is EU negotiation. position a tough the with be will that agreement and any trading new manoeuvre of UK’s tightly the circumscribe rules freedom is that WTO fact the But home. leaving like teenager to whatever do astroppy able wants, it EU of be will ties, freed that UK, the delusion minister, apersistent under Brexit toMake that of Liam labour another Fox, you what will. seems as member. an ex-EU options Britain’s about confusing, and confused it of continues and debate, much most to be has been, There options Unavailable and sub-optimal RELATIONSHIP PART FUTURE THE 2: 10 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October “We are keen very to see the EU develop and go forward, and all we would say is that there are kind of docking stations and doorways open for further “British domestic politics effectively rule out the Norwegian option” 12 The Brexiteers in the British cabinet talk of new trade deals as if they as they deals if trade new of talk cabinet British in the Brexiteers The UK involvementUK down the track” , currently the main pillar of main of pillar the , currently pdf. www.mofa.go.jp/files/000185466. and theEuropean Union,http:// to Message theUnited Kingdom Japanese government, Japan’s Britain’s plight hascome from the The mostcandidassessment of Europe, 4September 2016. Giving meaningto Brexit, Open papers isby Andrew Tyrie MP, oneofthemostpertinent subject, thevast literature12. Of onthe www.policy-network.net

policy network paper destinations within the eurozone, notably Dublin, Paris Frankfurt. and Dublin, eurozone, notably the within destinations for of London revenueout pull as costly, firms be will tax Delay and jobs British in of terms least not is urgent. to effects and situation mitigate new the to its manage Action rules. WTO under quotas of the imposition and barriers non-tariff of erection less bethan the will tariffs of impact the although are inevitable, exports and British imports on tariffs higher deals, trade free new of absence the In eurozone. within the services financial its to operate rights automatic passport its lose will London of that City the implies also It Ireland. with border land at Ulster the and controls at ports British customs new of erection inevitable the means Such arupture union. customs the and market leave single the to should that UK the both believe appear Brexit welcome who those of Most still. unratified CETA states. member the of remains parliaments national in also the but parliament European the in only not ratification requires it case, the being That states. member with shared competences have that CETA conceded EU both combining exclusive and competence agreement, is amixed to commission seems The globalisation. and trade free to against pitchhave themselves decided lobbyists eurosceptic and parties political whose Austria, notably states, member in several reaction anextraordinary has sparked notes that agreement the One in CETA, UK. suit not the would which features EU the ever Trade barely Canadians with than market be. will the integrated single in services more far is that UK already the fact the notwithstanding UK, the of case in the replicated be can with to EU’s the paid has been Economic recent Trade Comprehensiveand attention Some Agreement order. atall be such aSwiss-Turkish on agreement reaching UK, the with compromise over commerce. UK of much rapprochement Moreover,jurisdiction political is genuine there unless justice of to court and the EU the with regime market single practice British of equivalence minister, prime the including have would the to to to police commission concede the powers Brexiteers, the But WTOrules. on back falls it if will UK incur that the tariffs high and disruption like Turkey,This would greatavoid the like Switzerland. access market with services, financial for union, customs the of to membership combine be would UK the of behalf on solution A reasonable Brussels. and Bern continuebetween to a find compromise in 2014 referendum by another Intensive movement. efforts free were jeopardised rejected which arrangements complex access of parcel and These market. to single the as comes part which criterion movement people of accept justice of and free the court European the of jurisdiction the recognise EU. the with upwards 150to of EU manage to insist tries that The Swiss the agreements sectoral Swiss the Instead, have union. customs the of amember is Switzerland Nor EEA. to the join refused Switzerland Brussels. and Ankara between relationship disastrous fairly present, the of main causes the of is one status asecond-class to to be considers it what relegation Its successful. been havefar so not services embrace to agreement customs the to upgrade efforts Korea TTIP. and South with example EU’s for in the Turkey’s negotiations, trade own part taking from rebuffed has even policy, and been trade anindependent of much conduct –is UK thatthe cannot it for drawback The enter difficulty. EU the without potentiallygoods for so Turkeymore and – even country.a candidate Turkey exchangeits in and regime tariff EU’s the accepts external common Turkey 11 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October customs union, like Turkey, with market access for financial services, like Switzerland” “A reasonable solution on behalf of the UK would to be combine membership of the Canada was given membership of the EU the of as as potential anincentive union customs its to develop given membership was is another place which has a messy relationship with the EU. the with relationship in 1992 has place which a messy is Areferendum another (CETA). to equivalence ensure apparatus technical in that its model is auseful This deal with all 27 with deal could states www.policy-network.net

policy network paper own trade deals with third countries. Furthermore, only three of the four principles of free movement free of principles four the of three only thirdFurthermore, countries. with deals trade own to make its remains free Ukraine thing, For one EU to the suit UK. both the arrangement workable EU the and Ukraine’s with of to that recent path association the could adurable ease precedent Yet the from Ukraine. isthe not course, of learned is to much there be Kingdom, United The Agreement? Association A British are included. elements society civil and by consensus. Parliamentary acting to Agreement, annexes the to the adapt Council is empowered Association The committees. technical and configuration, in flexible Council meeting Association a ministerial summit meeting, anannual EU-Ukraine for chapter provides institutional The crime. combat international organised to commit to joint efforts parties the liberalisation; way visa the paving for management, border and asylum in migration, cooperation for made are also Arrangements policies. defence and security to convergenceforeign, of leading field in the cooperation increased for provide They EU’s reiterate the Agreement principles. and Association values the of chapters political The (onejudges neutral). EU, one Ukrainian, one three of is established machinery dispute settlement trade and in place. Amediation arrangements monitoring with development, sustainable and standards labour issues, energy covers trade-related DCFTA The rules. aid state and policy competition of at EU approximation agradual standards be will there and rights, property EU’s to The intellectual state. apply also will internal rules non-EU EEA, anon- for integration level of –anunprecedented procurement public of player inequal respect as treated an be will sector, Ukraine defence the of exception the With transport. and telecoms services, according market across single in financial and the to fields level playing in Ukraine operate EU’s the implements to acquisbe able communautaire,will firms once Ukraine sectors: non-service as well as in services establishment of DCFTA the freedom the for provides agreements, trade free Unlike procedures. classical of customs simplification the and rules, technical of standardisation measures, DCFTA WTOthe anti-dumping rules, establishes on Based barriers. non-tariff and quotas eventual and tariffs, of elimination by sector, by reduction and the sector alignment, regulatory via markets of opening the DCFTA for Ukrainian creates It framework the The is ambitious. into force provisionally. in 2014 signed Agreement Association is EU the the Ukraine and between British of EU trade problem to the a resolution for template existing an that offers option One precedent Agreement Association Ukraine The technical annexes and three protocols over three and 2100 annexes technical pages. Moldova, though with less drama. less with though Moldova, and Georgia with similar agreements EU has The established also are unknown. consequences term longer- all whose of region, into Donbas in Kiev, the incursion and Crimea the of Russian annexation contributing to acoup d’état Kremlin, the from backlash aferocious encountered duly It illicit. and to Russianlegal asboth acounterweight influence, Ukraine of orientation western the strengthen to intended purpose, strategic hasFrom adefinite Agreement EU’s the Association the view of point government. Ukrainian EU the the and institutions between relationship aninstitutional establishes Comprehensive Free Trade and Area(DCFTA), cooperation covers also political agreement the but 12 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October but the agreement also covers political cooperation and establishes an institutional “At its is heart the creation and of aDeep Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), relationship the between EU institutions and the Ukrainian government” 13 This is a large and complicated document, running to 486 clauses, 43 clauses, to running 486 document, complicated and is alarge This 15 14 At its heart is the creation of a Deep and and aDeep of creation is the At heart its , which has come , which from Rowman &Littlefield, 2016. and alsoavailable inhard copy downloadable at www.ceps.eu colleagues at CEPS,freely Emersonandhis by Michael documented andanalysed agreements well are very 15. The three association 05-2014. Journal, L 161, 29- 14. Official about how to react. Dutch government isparalysed returned anegative verdict. The 2016that inApril the Netherlands referendum onthematter heldin most recent obstacleisanabsurd aseparateday deserve essay. The to passbefore seeingthelight of Association Agreement hashad 13. The hurdles theUkraine www.policy-network.net

policy network paper constitutional upheaval. constitutional disruptive and vast another requiring without to so as and arise, circumstances they do changing to meet basis in UK-EU order to the allow for be to relationship would evolve agreed a mutually on second 45 the EU British of from years membership; legacy political the of best the as is possible, far so is protect, to first the EU and UK the have main purposes: would two between treaty new The Core partnership? such as G7 institutions G20. and global in strategy European and policy security external policy, internal and macro-economic including ranging, wide be should havewould all of such meetings seriously. treated agenda to be The parliament European the of Westminster of Members MPs and committee A joint parliamentary agreement. an association of machinery institutional in the engagement their of to make a priority well do officialswould and Eurojust. ministers British and Europol including EUseveral agencies, strengthen and join to apply should like Ukraine, UK, the addition, In benefit. mutual clear of be would EU programmes in certain EU, the with participation UK pragmatic cooperation and political intergovernmental future to object should Britain in sensible nobody but definition, careful need would agreement in anassociation implicit arrangements budgetary and institutional The UK. the with deal thefor make a would EUcomparable difficult it 27 to exists reject Agreement Association that Ukraine the fact the and into envelopes, tidy EU international agreements likesThe its to put parliaments. national their of 27 the of endorsement the plus states agreement unanimous the require will treaty second the EU. 50 agreement, Unlike Article earlier the the of remains amember UK the while concluded be cannot 50 but exercise Article the with parallel 218, in procedure”. Article provisions of the under start negotiated can be would It negotiations and special and action common obligations, and than rights “anmore involving reciprocal association 217 Article of base Using legal the no EU imply the would UK the and TFEU, between treaty anew agreement. anassociation of terms the under possible be compliance certainly would and cooperation but scheme, such emissions as trading the international issuesand are concerned cross-border where especially EU’s the policies, environment and with energy engagement evolving continued of British degree the about needed be would aviation. Decisions in civil regime sky single the to re-join able be would It R&D.science continue would It Investment European to the Bank. use and concerning education those notably EU programmes, in selected way into its participating buy to able be would UK The Acceptance and goods. (ACAA) in industrial Assessment Conformity on aDCFTA of EU framework and UK the within the anAgreement to for negotiate straightforward fairly be should It legislation. relevant subsequent and directive EUto the of terms the services to continue opts to UK the adhere if sector, especially services in the possible be would market CETA under manage will Canada than Norway). less Crucially, (though somewhat access to single the access enjoy would UK higher much the exchange, In than market to future. single in the the other CETA, as with each to from cooperation, ensure EU far and technical that UK diverge the not do of degree ahigh to establish necessary EU the be to would it acquis. absorb But in order must, Ukraine as the to adapt, need not would it has pioneered, Ukraine Were to where UK the follow EU. the of membership Ukraine’s future postulate not does agreement The envisaged. or permitted movement people of of freedom general is no there agreement: to Ukraine the apply 13 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October “the fact that the Ukraine Association Agreement exists would make it difficult for the EU 27 to areject comparable deal with theUK” 16 Ukraine. - astheydidnotinthecaseof temptation to have areferendum Anglophile Dutch would resist the 16. Onewould hopethe www.policy-network.net

policy network paper lasted until the UK joined the European Community as a full member in 1973. member as afull Community European the until joined UK the lasted Agreement Association ECSC The mattered. cooperation pragmatic cross-Channel integration, to European signal that UK’s the approach despite political idiosyncratic gave also it an important but cooperation; the to manage institutions political and technical both established and Six the of gave market that access UK agreement the steel coal to and integrated the Monnet, Jean and Sandys Steel Coal European and Community. new by the Duncan with Signed agreement an association 1954 December In such athing. for precedent negotiated UK the even ahistorical is indeed there Brexiteers, EU the with hard-line may enrage treaty anassociation of prospect the Although Brexit. after partnership privileged accord that UK should same the grapes, sour inside. the Yet EU the from have British than the outside been from integration EU the 27, without Although it is not a matter of cut and paste, the Ukrainian model provides a useful template. auseful provides model Ukrainian the paste, and cut of isamatter it not Although area. trade free comprehensive and core adeep at its that establishes EU,the treaty apolitical with agreement association anew We that seek she them. recommend invidious choice between to avoid May’s desperate an be will government Theresa and availableare problematic, options catastrophe? into All the vote turning economic from by Brexit the crisis caused constitutional to prevent at home the as struggles Europe it mainland with relationship its order Britain should Today post-War immediate in the as How did it dilemma years. asimilar faces UK strategic the ‘core partner’. USA Strategy, the out council as European a the singled in June, Global revised adopted its In rule. and divide of continental policy historical to its returning to is prevented ensure from that Britain Great seek will agreement, anassociation of the Equally having EU anyaffairs. from influence mainland in excluded European drafting the 27, in and international law. isolated in Britain’s be will It that isperpetually it not to interest national see in of terms recognised interdependence close to have anxious inevitably their be will parties Both 14 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October 17 Traditionally, the Americans have been much stronger supporters for European European for Traditionally, supporters much stronger have Americans the been 18 Stiftung, 2013. Europe, Euractiv.com, 01-09-16. first association agreement with ‘Intimate andEnduring’: Britain’s 18. For more, seeAndrew Duff, web.pdf globalstrategy/files/eugs_review_ globalstrategy/sites/ 17. https://europa.eu/ www.policy-network.net

policy network paper the EU by working harder to strengthen the European pillar of Nato. This would need London to drop London Nato. of pillar European need the would This to strengthen harder EUthe by working in clout political of loss its to for compensate is government whether British the for decision A basic Council may key prove to its to exercising be influence at the core. European France relationship with its Security UN in manages the UK the How in it recent years. has eluded that affairs in European leadership for power, to show acapacity France responsibility has aspecial to EU’s the paid to nuclear be EU’s Nato.needs the relationship with As attention surviving only Immediate Agreement. Association an EU-UK for context strategic fundamental the provides EU, the to and UK the reinforce transatlantic alliance the need urgent the between relationship trading future the on has been term short focus the weakens Although security. European Brexit deficit security the Plugging Norway, Turkey, including Iceland, states, European other even –and Switzerland. Ukraine for and UK the for prospect settled and long-term EU’sthe anattractive might become constitution, in entrenched class Such anew associate of membership, membership. full of short to Union the affiliation formal of category anew EU in the to install Convention treaty consider whether should new the is receding, Brexit of shock is the in place and Agreement Association aUK by then If to not miss it. Best Giscard’s Convention are rare: 20 another. from on years be will there moments constitutional These impossible. previously haswhat been makewill scene the possible from UK the of retirement the Union, the of development to constitutional the approach federal adecidedly taking for argument the this place to is the not rehearse Although knows. change, as everyone treaty requires eurozone of the integration fiscal Deeper Union. to consolidate Monetary Economic the and done to be needs d’etre. raison its Taking however, centre stage, to re-establish what be must action of programme anambitious needs Union The envisaged. than originally was Paper White the for remit a wider March 2017. induces acquis Brexit by disintegration, risk of the of the are untouched aspects few As commission’s the be will for Union the of state is the of reassessment which promised Paper White decent a British?chance the for from first EU now smaller the will liberation The use What make its of anchor. drag British the EU the have reminding from of 27least merit the that freed are at they last at should exercise purging That deleted. or have will integration of amended to be sectors from opt-outs British over numerous many the that years the have Protocols Declarations and established 52 TEU 355 and in Articles the Kingdom United addition, In clauses. TFEU institutional in other and to the references to expunge Treaty only if is always revision unpopular, inescapable be will it but Lisbon. of treaty the of revision general long-awaited and amuch-needed undertake to Union the of states member remaining the for time in place, be will it Agreement EU Association UK- 50, anew with and by Union dint European the Article of having escaped Kingdom United The Europe of future tothe Back PART BREXIT BEYOND 3: EUROPE 15 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October “The Union“The needs an ambitious programme of action to re-establish its raison d’etre. Taking centre stage, however, must what be needs to done be to consolidate the Economic Union” Monetary and 19 August 2016. continental partnership, Bruegel, Brexit:after Aproposal for a Jean-Pisani Ferry et al, Europe Stiftung, also 2013.See European Union,Bertelsmann Group, AFundamental Law ofthe see might work, The Spinelli 19. For anexample ofhow this www.policy-network.net

policy network paper deviant member state of the European Union. European the of state member deviant a of something has always been Kingdom United The run. long in the unsustainable probably was basis EU the of previous the on is that as truth we membership continued the British might, Brexit ‘crisis’ of reiteration Regret woeful constant help: is would unhelpful. mood of Achange met. be are to now acquire challenges Europe’s must unusual these if statesmanship of qualities leaders decade. same the all within challenge, political big fourth the pose would to federate decides Union European remaining the when as relationship and British the of Management athird. be would in Europe settlement security basis anew of the on trust Rebuilding a second. be will treaty cooperation political and agreement a trade of negotiation The parties. both of temper political of the EU, the with test relations first future the for be will framework of the definition the including agreement, 50 withdrawal Article disrepair. the of negotiation The in bad Europe of rest the with leaves relations Union European the Britain’s its to exit decision theRepairing damage policy. policejustice and of to play role field in the evenlegitimate indispensable –namely, has a that EU’s the authority supranational pre-Brexit could it what not accept post-Brexit have will it to to policies, learn basis in EU security aselective on to participate seeks government UK the If building. capacity for preconditions are indispensable American, and European partners, core with planning response that common intelligencejoint and analysis sharing, reality the from to allowed escape be not must UK the external, internal and both nexus, security the Throughout Frontex. and security maritime collective resources to support military continueits should It to missions. offer policy defence and security EU’s the of in certain common army). European as the to could UK opt participate newspapers The in Britain’s (fondly known tabloid matters in military cooperation structured permanent, of EU’s the from that emerges development HQ any with liaison operational new establish should It benefit. security and industrial Agency, both to potential has the which bring Defence European the with Itengage askcould to efforts. the from contributeEU’s to profit and security increasing could agreement, an terms association of the under ways are several UK, the in which There the from EU. affairs own its of back ‘taken control’ laurels having its on resting alone Britain by if undertaken effective be cannot crime organised of international manifestations and other piracy trafficking, illegal in nuclearefforts non-proliferation, or in combating maritimeinsecurity.cyber or Fighting terrorism, to continue in aposition to be accept they contribute will British the to if that UN-led logic Only EU of Nato. and by together growing ensured the be to Russia, is likely only arecidivist facing least not west, the of security future Nato. The jeopardises anEU dimension of defence that growth the by Brexiteers, the beloved much argument, false the In anyIn we have case, to choice give no but atry. it basis. realistic amore on start afresh for opportunity 16 |After Brexit: ANewAssociation Agreement ANDEurope Britain 2016 Between |October “There are“There several ways in which the under the UK, terms of an association agreement, could contribute to and profit from the EU’s increasing security efforts” 20 For both Britain and Europe, Brexit throws upthe Europe, Brexit and Britain For both better for allofus”. European neighboursthat works relationshipcomfortable withour clear theair, butto create amore gives anopportunity, notjustto now leaving that project. And this in reality apoliticalproject. We are ofwhat is beingpart comfortable “We have never really been conference party on2October: Brexit, told theConservative 20. David Davis, for Minister www.policy-network.net

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