Labour Market Indicators and Trends

Avalon Peninsula Region

Strengthening Partnerships in the Labour Market Initiative Report #3

Winter 2007

Labour Market Development Division Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment The Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment gratefully acknowledges financial support in the preparation of this report from the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Development Agreement.

For more information or additional copies of this document, please contact:

Labour Market Development Division Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment P.O. Box 8700 West Block, Confederation Building St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6

Telephone: (709) 729-2866 Fax: (709) 729-5560 Email to: [email protected]

Or download a copy at: www.hrle.gov.nl.ca/hrle/publications/list.htm

Readers should note that the text in the PDF version of this document may differ slightly from the printed version. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Avalon Peninsula Region

Strengthening Partnerships in the Labour Market Initiative

Report #3 PeninsulaAvalon Region

Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment Winter 2007 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Avalon Peninsula Region Table of Contents

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables...... iii

1.0 Introduction...... 1

1.1 Purpose of the Report...... 1 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: 1.2 Background...... 2 1.3 Regions...... 3 1.4 Overview of the Report...... 4

2.0 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview...... 7 2.1 Provincial Labour Market Landscape...... 7 2.2 Regional Labour Market Landscape...... 11

3.0 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply...... 17 3.1 Labour Force...... 18 3.2 Commuting Trends and Workflow Areas...... 21 Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region 3.3 Working Age Population...... 30 3.4 Migration...... 33 3.5 Immigration...... 43 3.6 Aging Workforce...... 44 3.7 Education and the Labour Supply...... 46 3.8 Future Labour Supply...... 49 3.9 Those Not in the Labour Force and Under-Represented Groups...... 50

4.0 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand...... 61 4.1 Industry Employment...... 62 4.2 Employment by Occupation...... 65 4.3 Employment and Education...... 67 4.4 Firms...... 68 4.5 Other Considerations for Labour Demand...... 69 Table of Contents

5.0 Labour Market Outcomes...... 71 5.1 Employment...... 71 5.2 Participation...... 75 5.3 Unemployment...... 75 5.4 Part-Year Work...... 76 5.5 Income, Wages and Non-Wage Benefits...... 78

6.0 Next Steps...... 83

Endnotes...... 84

Glossary...... 89

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Appendix A: Provincial Geographies...... 97

Appendix B: Labour Market Information Sources...... 103

Appendix C: Figures for the St. John’s CMA...... 106 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

ii List of Figures and Tables

List of Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Communities Within the Region...... 10 Table 1: Distribution of Communities Where People Live by Size, 2004...... 11 Figure 2: Proportion of People Living in Communities with Over 5,000 People, 2004...... 12 Figure 3: Proportion of People Living in Communities with Less Than 500 People, 2004...... 12 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Table 2: Summary Labour Market Indicators for Region, NL and Canada...... 15 Figure 4: Labour Force by Gender, NL, 1976 to 2005 (Annual Average)...... 19 Figure 5: Labour Force, LFS Economic Region, 1987 to 2005 (Annual Average)...... 19 Figure 6: Labour Force Location, Canada and Atlantic Provinces, 2005...... 20 Figure 7: Labour Force Location, Economic Regions, NL, 2005...... 20 Figure 8: Proportion of People Who Live and Work in Different Communities, NL and Regions, 2001...... 21 Table 3: Average Distance Travelled for Work by People Who Worked Outside Their Community of Residence, 2001...... 21 Figures 9A, 9B, 9C, 9D, 9E & 9F: Workflow Areas in Region, 2001...... 23 Table 4: Population Within Commuting Distance of Selected Workflow Areas in Region, 2004...... 29 Figure 10: Proportion of People in Working Age Population (20-64 Years) by Region, 2006...... 30

Figure 11: Population Change by Region, 1991 to 2006...... 31 PeninsulaAvalon Region Figure 12: Population Change by Region, 2006 to 2021...... 31 Figure 13: Population Change by Region (20-64 Years), 1991 to 2006...... 32 Figure 14: Population Change by Region (20-64 Years), 2006 to 2021...... 32 Figure 15: Natural Population Change, NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06...... 33 Figure 16: Net Migration, NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06...... 34 Figure 17: Average Annual Distribution of Interprovincial Out-Migrants by Province of Destination, NL, 1971-1976 and 2001-2006...... 35 Figure 18: Average Annual Distribution of Interprovincial In-Migrants by Province of Origin, NL, 1971-1976 and 2001-2006...... 35 Figure 19: Net Intraprovincial Migration by Census Division and St. John’s CMA, NL, 1986-1991 and 1999-2004...... 36 Table 5: Intraprovincial and Interprovincial Out-Migration, NL, 1996 to 2001...... 37 Figure 20: Interprovincial Out-Migration by Age (15-64 Years), NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06...... 39

iii List of Figures and Tables

Figure 21: Interprovincial In-Migration by Age (15-64 Years), NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06...... 40 Figure 22: Proportion of Net Interprovincial Out-Migrants by Age (15-64 Years), Five-Year Intervals, NL, 1976-1981 to 2001-2006...... 40 Figure 23: Five-Year Out-Migration (15+ Years) by Highest Level of Schooling, NL, 1986 to 2001...... 41 Figure 24: Five-Year In-Migration (15+ Years) by Highest Level of Schooling, NL, 1986 to 2001...... 41 Figure 25: Five-Year Net Out-Migration (15+ Years) by Highest Level of Schooling, NL, 1986 to 2001...... 42 Figure 26: Distribution of Interprovincial Out-Migrants by Occupation, NL, 1996 to 2001...... 42 Figure 27: Immigrant Population as a Proportion of Total Population, 2001...... 43 Figure 28: Population Pyramid, Region, 1991...... 44 Figure 29: Population Pyramid, Region, 2006...... 44 Figure 30: Population Pyramid, Region, 2021...... 45 Figure 31: Distribution of Those Who Worked by Age Groups, Region, 1990 and 2000...... 45 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Figure 32: Proportion of Population (25-54 Years) With Less Than High School, 2001...... 46 Figure 33: Proportion of Population (25-54 Years) With a Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma, 2001...... 47 Figure 34: Proportion of Population (25-54 Years) With a University Degree, 2001...... 47 Figure 35: Distribution of Population (25-54 Years) by Highest Level of Schooling, Region, 1991 and 2001...... 48 Table 6: Distribution of Population (25-54 Years) by Highest Level of Schooling, NL, Region and Local Areas, 2001...... 48 Figure 36: Ratio of Younger Workers (15-24 Years) for Every Potential Retiree (55-64 Years), Region, 1991 to 2021...... 49 Figure 37: Distribution of Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Region, 2005...... 51 Figure 38: Proportion of Employment Insurance Beneficiaries in Population, Regions, 2005...... 51 Figure 39: Employment Insurance Beneficiaries and Average Real Benefits, Region, 1992 to 2005...... 52 Figure 40: Distribution of Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Within Region, 2005...... 52 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Figure 41: Distribution of Income Support Recipients by Region, 2005...... 53 Figure 42: Proportion of Income Support Recipients in Population, Regions, 2005...... 53 Figure 43: Income Support Recipients, Region, 1991 to 2005...... 54 Figure 44: Distribution of Income Support Recipients Within Region, 2004...... 54 Table 7: Selected Indicators by Gender, 2001...... 55 Table 8: Selected Indicators for Persons With Disabilities, 2001...... 56 iv List of Figures and Tables

Table 9: Selected Indicators for Immigrants, 2001...... 57 Table 10: Selected Indicators for Aboriginal Populations, 2001...... 58 Table 11: Selected Indicators for Youth (18-29 Years), 2001...... 59 Table 12: Selected Indicators for Older Workers (45+ Years), 2001...... 60 Figure 45: Distribution of Employment by Industry, Region, 2000...... 62 Figure 46: Distribution of Employment by Industry, NL, 2000...... 63 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Figure 47: Distribution of Employment by Industry, Canada, 2000...... 63 Figure 48: Employment Growth/Decline by Industry (Absolute), Region, 1995 to 2000...... 64 Figure 49: Distribution of Employment by Occupation, Region, 2000...... 65 Figure 50: Distribution of Employment by Occupation, NL, 2000...... 65 Figure 51: Distribution of Employment by Occupation, Canada, 2000...... 66 Figure 52: Occupational Growth (Per Cent), Region, 1995 to 2000...... 66 Figure 53: Occupational Decline (Absolute), Region, 1995 to 2000...... 67 Figure 54: Employment by Highest Level of Education, Region, 1990 and 2000...... 67 Figure 55: Distribution of Firms by Region, 2004...... 68 Figure 56: Distribution of Firms by Number of Employees, Region and NL, 2004...... 69 Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Figure 57: Proportion of Employees in Public Sector, Provinces and Canada, 2005...... 69 Figure 58: Proportion of Unionized Employees, Canada and NL, 1997 to 2005...... 70 Figure 59: Number of People with Employment Income (15+ Years), and Annual Average Employment (15+ Years), NL, 1990 to 2004...... 72 Figure 60: Number of Taxfilers with Employment Income, Region, 1990 to 2004...... 73 Figure 61: Number of Taxfilers with Employment Income, NL, 1990 to 2004,...... 73 Figure 62: Proportion of People with Employment Income (15+ Years), NL, Region and Local Areas, 2004...... 74 Figure 63: Participation Rates (15+ Years), 1997 to 2005 (Annual Average)...... 75 Figure 64: Unemployment Rates (15+ Years), 1997 to 2005 (Annual Average)...... 75 Figure 65: Distribution of Full-Year and Part-Year Workers (18-64 Years), NL, Regions and CMA/CAs, 2000...... 77 Figure 66: Distribution of Weeks Worked (18-64 Years), Region, 1995 and 2000...... 77 Figure 67: Average Real Employment Income (Taxfilers), Region and NL, 1990 to 2004...... 78

List of Figures and Tables

Figure 68: Average Employment Income (Taxfilers), Local Areas Within Region, 2004...... 79 Figure 69: Average Weekly Wages (Real vs Nominal), NL, 1997 to 2005...... 80 Figure 70: Average Weekly Wages (Real vs Nominal), LFS Economic Region, 1997 to 2005...... 80 Figure 71: Average Weekly Wages, NL and Economic Regions, 2005...... 81 Figure 72: Percentage of Firms by Type of Non-Wage Benefit Offered to Permanent Employees, NL, 2004...... 81 Figure 73: Occupations with Average Weekly Wage Rates Above Provincial Average, NL, 2005...... 82 Figure 74: Occupations with Average Weekly Wage Rates Below Provincial Average, NL, 2005...... 82 Map 1: Rural Secretariat Regions and Census Consolidated Subdivisions in Newfoundland and Labrador...... 99 Map 2: Census Divisions in Newfoundland and Labrador...... 100 Map 3: Labour Force Survey Economic Regions in Newfoundland and Labrador...... 101 Map 4: Local Areas in Region...... 102 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

vi 1.0 Introduction

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Avalon Peninsula Region is one of nine regional labour market reports that have been developed by the Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. These reports have been prepared to support the objectives of the Strengthening Partnerships in the Labour Market Initiative.

The report provides the most comprehensive source of regional labour market information available. It is a valuable reference tool to help individuals and organizations better understand their local labour markets and help them make more informed decisions to help improve employment outcomes, increase competitiveness among employers and support overall social and economic development in the region and the province.

1.1 Purpose of the Report

Labour markets play a critical role in a society. They are the means through which most people earn a living. They Introduction are also where employers find the workers they need to help them compete in the global marketplace. Therefore, it is essential that individuals and organizations have access to current and reliable labour market information to help them make informed decisions – decisions that will help improve employment outcomes and support the continued development of healthy labour markets in Newfoundland and Labrador.

This report was prepared to assist individuals and organizations with these decisions. It provides essential information to help answer questions such as:

• How many workers are in the region? • Is the number of jobs increasing? • What education levels do workers have? • What education and training will be required to get a job in the future? • How many people are unemployed? • What type of jobs do people work in? • Where do people work? • How much do people earn in their jobs? • What industries are growing? • How many employers are in the region? Introduction

Every day, individuals and organizations throughout the 1.2 background province seek answers to questions like these. Some of the groups that need this information include students, youth, parents, guidance counsellors and career practitioners, The Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment employers, workers, policy makers, community agencies, and (HRLE) is currently leading the Strengthening Partnerships in post-secondary institutions. the Labour Market Initiative in partnership with labour, business and other government departments and agencies, including the Labour Market Sub-Committee of the Strategic Partnership Access to this information is more important than ever before. Initiative, and the federal government under the Canada- Labour markets in Newfoundland and Labrador and most Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Development developed economies throughout the world are changing Agreement (CA/NL LMDA).1 rapidly, largely due to the impacts of globalization, advancing technologies and changing demographics. In this environment, individuals and organizations need the capacity to quickly The Strengthening Partnerships in the Labour Market Initiative and flexibly respond to a number of emerging challenges and was implemented in 2004 in response to stakeholders’ concerns about gaps in access to information about regional labour opportunities, including potential skill and labour shortages. 2 Ready access to information about local labour markets is critical markets. The current report is one of nine regional labour to assist people in making decisions that will help improve their market reports that have been developed as part of this initiative to help address these gaps and increase access to regional labour Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula own employment outcomes, as well as overall outcomes for 3 their regions. market information.

However, people are often challenged to find the information What We Heard: A Summary of Regional Perspectives on Labour they need. For example, sometimes the information is not easily Market Trends in Newfoundland and Labrador was also released in Summer 2006 as a companion document to the regional labour accessible or there is confusion in sorting through a wide array 4 of information sources. Sometimes the information is very market reports. The summary report provides an overview technical and difficult to understand or it is simply not available. of stakeholders’ perspectives concerning common trends, This latter challenge is particularly true for people trying to find challenges and opportunities that are impacting all regions of labour market information at a regional or community level. the province, as well as potential approaches to help respond to them.5 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Avalon Peninsula Region will help address these information challenges. The report Other activities that have been carried out as part of the provides the most comprehensive account of the regional labour Strengthening Partnerships in the Labour Market initiative to market that is currently available. It serves as an invaluable help increase access to regional labour market information and reference tool, providing a solid baseline of regional labour facilitate partnerships and networking opportunities among Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour market information to help people make more informed labour regional and provincial stakeholders include: market decisions - decisions that will help improve employment outcomes, increase employers’ competitiveness and support • Developing www.LMIworks.nl.ca, a one-stop web portal to continued economic and social development in the province. provincial labour market information (Winter 2007); and, • Hosting a provincial labour market symposium (October 30th and 31st, 2006).6

Introduction

1.3 Regions Rural Secretariat Regions Newfoundland & Labrador Rural Secretariat regions are the main regions described throughout the regional reports. These regions were Labrador Region developed in 2005 by the Rural Secretariat, Government St. Anthony - Port au Choix Region of Newfoundland and Labrador. Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour Region Stephenville - Port aux Basques Region There are nine Rural Secretariat regions that are defined Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Breton Region Labour Market Indicators and Trends: based on patterns of activity already existing in the Gander - New-Wes-Valley Region province. Each region is comprised of larger and smaller Clarenville - Bonavista Region towns, and has at least one regional service centre with Burin Peninsula Region an array of private sector services, and post secondary Nain and medical facilities. The nine regions are: Avalon Peninsula Region

Natuashish • Labrador

Makkovik • St. Anthony-Port au Choix • Corner Brook-Rocky Harbour • Stephenville-Port aux Basques Cartwright • Grand Falls-Windsor-Baie Verte-Harbour Breton 0 50 100 200 Kilometers Labrador City Happy Valley- • Gander-New-Wes-Valley Goose Bay Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region • Clarenville-Bonavista Port Hope Simpson Mary's Harbour • Burin Peninsula

• Avalon Peninsula St. Anthony St. Barbe

The Rural Secretariat promotes information sharing, Roddickton informed dialogue and collaboration within government Port au Choix and between government and communities. It facilitates La Scie horizontal thinking on regional issues, engages citizens Baie Verte Fogo Twillingate to enhance the consideration of regional issues in public Rocky Harbour

policy development, and is focused on the long-term Deer Lake New-Wes-Valley Grand Falls- Gander Corner Brook Windsor sustainability of all regions of Newfoundland and Bonavista Labrador. Buchans le vil en Clarenville ph Ste

Carbonear St. John's

Channel- Burgeo Harbour Breton Port aux Basques Placentia Grand Bank Marystown

Department of Finance St. Lawrence Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency Trepassey Introduction

1.4 overview of the Report workforce aging; workforce skills and education; future projections of the potential labour supply; and labour market characteristics of under-represented groups. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Avalon Peninsula Region provides a detailed account of the labour market landscape in the region. Information has been developed or gathered from a Section 4: This section of the report explores indicators and wide variety of sources to help create an in-depth picture of the trends for changing labour demands, or the number and types of trends that are impacting the regional labour market and their workers employers need to help them produce their goods and potential implications for the future.7 services. Some of the indicators examined in this section include: the distribution of employment by industry and occupation; industry and occupational growth patterns; changing education Throughout the report, current information available is and skills requirements; firm size and location; public and presented on a broad array of indicators for the labour private sector employment; and trends among unionized supply, labour demand and labour market outcomes, as well employees. as information about their historical trends. Comparative information for areas within the region, other Rural Secretariat regions, the province and Canada have also been included to Section 5: This section of the report focuses on trends and help demonstrate common challenges among jurisdictions.8 indicators for key labour market outcomes for individuals to help create a picture of how well the regional labour market

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula is performing. Some of the indicators examined in this section In today’s global marketplace individuals and organizations include: employment and employment growth, labour force need to better understand how their region is performing participation; unemployment; duration of work; and earnings, relative to other areas. This type of information is especially wages and benefits. important to help identify factors that may impact individuals’ and organizations’ capacity to respond to emerging challenges and opportunities at the regional level, such as the increasing Section 6: This section of the report outlines current activities competition for labour that may impact their capacity to attract that are underway to further help address existing labour and retain workers in the future. market information gaps and needs among individuals and organizations throughout all regions of the province. Structure of the Report To further assist readers in understanding and interpreting the findings, this report also includes: detailed endnotes, including Section 2: This section of the report provides a brief introduction explanatory notes for figures and charts; a glossary of labour to the Avalon Peninsula region including an overview of market terms; descriptions and maps of the various geographies provincial and regional labour market conditions and a described throughout the report (Appendix A); an overview of summary of key labour market indicators to help set the context key labour market information sources (Appendix B); and, as a Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour for trends and implications described throughout the document. supplement to the information for the Avalon Peninsula region, a selection of figures that highlight trends for the St. John’s CMA Section 3: This section of the report focuses on indicators and (Appendix C). trends in the labour supply (or those people who are, or who could potentially be, available for work) to help create a picture of the current and future workforce. Some of the indicators examined in this section include: labour force growth; labour force location; workflow patterns; workforce demographic trends including population change, migration and immigration;

Introduction

Disclaimers, Cautionary Notes and Considerations for Readers 5. The figures shown in all Census tables in the report have been subjected to a confidentiality procedure known as random The following disclaimers, cautionary notes and considerations rounding to prevent the possibility of associating statistical data have been provided to assist individuals with the interpretation with any identifiable individual. Under this method, all figures, and use of the data and information presented in this report. including totals and detail, are randomly rounded either up or down to a multiple of “5”, and in some cases “10”. For example, 1. Every effort has been undertaken to help ensure the information random rounding of 12 to a multiple of 5 would yield either 10 presented is as current as possible and all available sources have or 15. Table cells which contain data ranging between 0 and 9,

been exhausted in the development of the report. However, are subjected to random rounding between 0 and 10. Therefore, Labour Market Indicators and Trends: information gaps still exist. In these cases, provincial level a cell showing “0” could actually have a value between 0 and information has been reported to demonstrate key challenges 9. The random rounding technique provides strong protection that are also known to be impacting regional labour markets, against direct, residual or negative disclosure, without adding such as out-migration. Or, in other cases, information for sub- significant error to the Census data. provincial regions other than the Rural Secretariat regions is 6. Readers should note that Census data cells which appear as presented, such as the four Labour Force Survey regions or 10 “0” does not necessarily mean that there are no values for Census Divisions. the indicator being described. A “0” value (zero) could also 2. Information in this document is provided for the purpose indicate that the data has been subject to data suppression to of facilitating a better understanding of the regional labour address confidentiality issues related to small counts or residual market landscape, based upon the most current information disclosure, data quality issues identified through quality checks, available on the date of publication. However, all the data is random rounding or actual zero values. Readers should be subject to periodic revisions. Therefore, readers are strongly aware of such values and take caution when interpreting the advised to confirm potential revisions with the Department of data. Human Resources, Labour and Employment prior to using the 7. Distributions and individual numbers may not sum to the total information for planning purposes.

in some of the tables and figures presented in the report. This PeninsulaAvalon Region 3. The tables and charts published in this report are subject to may be caused by several factors including random rounding different publication and reproduction criteria. The majority and suppression. Much of the detailed information for the Rural of tables may be published without further licences, provided Secretariat regions presented was created by summing smaller that it does not purport to be published under the Government geographies such as Census Consolidated Subdivisions (CCS) of Newfoundland and Labrador and that acknowledgement is or, in some cases, communities. This smaller level geography made of this source. would have been subject to suppression because of low counts. 4. Population levels reported in this document are based upon 8. Every effort has been undertaken to ensure all care and diligence Census counts that are conducted every 5 years. Between Census has been used in processing, analyzing and extracting the periods, the last Census year is used, together with estimates information used in the preparation of this document. However, of births, deaths and migration, to estimate annual population the information is provided without warranty of any kind, either numbers. These estimates tend to become less reliable toward expressed or implied. The Government of Newfoundland and the end of the period as the new Census year approaches. Labrador and its employees will not be liable for any damages, All population data presented in this report are based upon direct or indirect, arising from use of the information provided Census 2001 counts. These estimates will be revised sometime in this report. after the new 2006 Census population counts are released in 9. Readers are strongly encouraged to refer to the endnotes for 2007. It is expected that the revised population levels may be the figures and tables presented in this report. slightly lower than currently reported levels for the province and regions. However, all reported trends are expected to be consistent. Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

2.0 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview Labour Market Landscape: An Overview The Avalon Peninsula region is one of nine Rural Secretariat regions in Newfoundland and Labrador.9 Like other Rural Secretariat regions, the current labour market structure and dynamics within the region strongly reflect that of the province as a whole and, in many cases, the Canadian labour market.

2.1 Provincial Labour Market Landscape

Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) has become the most important source of macroeconomic data to help monitor changing trends in employment and unemployment in the country. This is mainly due to its timeliness in reporting survey results on a monthly basis.10 Many individuals and organizations also use LFS data to help understand and explain labour market dynamics, decisions and characteristics among individuals, employers and regions.

Data from the LFS show that labour market conditions in Newfoundland and Labrador are improving – employment rates and participation rates are among the highest levels ever while the unemployment rate is decreasing. The LFS data also indicate that the province maintains the lowest employment and participation rates and the highest unemployment rates in the country. This points to a weaker labour market performance when compared to other provinces and leaves an impression of a significant oversupply of workers.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, however, the small LFS survey sample severely limits the reliable use of the data for more detailed analyses of current and emerging trends and outcomes. Furthermore, to more fully understand the changes that are happening and the relationships between labour market participants (e.g., workers and employers), a broader set of labour market indicators is required than those reported in the LFS.

In 2003 the Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment initiated research to help address these information gaps. Findings from this research indicate that the province shares many labour market characteristics and trends with other provinces in Canada, as well as common challenges and opportunities.11 For example:

• Rapid growth and dominance of the service sector and urbanization are key trends that have emerged since the post-World War II era; • Advancing technologies have driven an increasing demand for higher education and skill requirements among workers in all industries and occupations over the past decade; • Traditional resource-based industries, such as fishing and forestry, are struggling to adopt new technologies to increase productivity and compete in an increasingly global marketplace; • Knowledge-based industries continue to emerge and hold significant opportunities for all jurisdictions due to their limited dependence on physical or natural resources; Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

• Labour market conditions are improving overall. However, Other key findings from this research point to the significant all people are not benefiting equally from the gains and there influence of rural areas on the overall provincial labour market are concerns about growing inequities, especially between environment. Compared to other provinces, Newfoundland low-skilled and more highly skilled workers and among and Labrador labour markets have been shaped by a relatively under-represented and marginalized workers; stronger dependence on highly seasonal, primary, resource- based industries. These industries tend to be concentrated • Women have been the driving force behind labour force in rural areas and have traditionally required relatively low growth. However, although employment rates, participation education levels. rates, income levels and education levels have been growing at a faster pace than men, significant gaps still remain between men and women among these indicators; and These factors have contributed to the development of a highly seasonal workforce. Newfoundland and Labrador actually has • Finally, in the past several years, the impacts of changing the highest proportion of part-year workers in the country, demographic trends have emerged as primary labour market especially in rural areas. These factors also strongly influence challenges for the province, Canada and most advanced unemployment rates. In fact, far more people work throughout economies in the world. Changing demographics will the year than reported average monthly employment and significantly increase labour supply pressures over the next unemployment rates would suggest. However, they work for ten years. The competition for labour will continue to increase shorter periods during the year compared to other jurisdictions.

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula and potentially lead to labour and skill shortages. However, there are a number of gaps among key labour Other labour market outcomes for the province are also market indicators for the province when compared to other impacted by these factors. For example, the province has the jurisdictions. In addition to employment, participation and highest proportion of its labour force living in rural areas. unemployment, the province still lags the rest of the country on These workers tend to be older and have lower education indicators such as workforce education and literacy levels, wage levels relative to workers in more urban areas of the province rates and prevalence of workplace training. These gaps point to and the rest of Canada. As a result of these dynamics, labour potential competitive challenges in the future. market indicators in rural areas tend to be lower, whereas labour market indicators for more urban areas of the province are directly comparable to, and in some cases exceed, indicators Newfoundland and Labrador is also likely to experience some for Canada as a whole. Income levels in the province are also labour market challenges earlier, or to a greater extent, than strongly impacted by the prevalence of part-year work. Despite other provinces due to several unique factors. For example, increasing wages, shorter work periods significantly lower while population growth has been slowing in the rest of Canada, annual employment income for individuals in the province the provincial population has actually declined over the past 15 relative to the rest of Canada. years. This has been largely due to relatively lower attraction

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour and retention rates for immigrants, lower fertility rates and higher levels of net out-migration. As a result of these factors, Amidst these challenges, research also points to many potential the province will likely experience labour supply pressures or labour market opportunities for Newfoundland and Labrador, skill shortages earlier than elsewhere, especially as population including: growth continues to slow in the rest of the country and the competition for labour from other provinces grows. • A well developed education system, transportation and communication infrastructure and public service system to help attract potential investors and stimulate employment growth;

Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

• A small population to help foster strong partnerships among key labour market stakeholders, such as the Labour Market Sub-Committee of the Strategic Partnership Initiative, and promote greater collaboration and coordination in responding to emerging challenges; • A high quality of life, competitive cost of living and strong sense of community to help foster stronger attachments and help retain workers who were born here and attract new workers as well; Labour Market Indicators and Trends: • A well developed post-secondary education system that produces highly skilled graduates, in a wide range of fields who can help firms grow and innovate; • A strong capacity for leadership on the social issues such as inclusion and poverty reduction. This presents competitive opportunities to help increase participation among women, persons with disabilities, Aboriginal people and other under-represented groups while also helping to address skill shortages; • Opportunities for new and existing firms to expand and invest in export-driven or knowledge-based industries within the global marketplace;

• A strategic location between the major North American and PeninsulaAvalon Region European markets; and, • A strong potential for employment growth related to major project developments in the oil and gas, energy and mining industries as well as continued development in innovative areas such as the marine research, aerospace, aquaculture and pharmaceutical industries.

Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

Figure 1: Communities Within the Avalon Peninsula Region

Grates Cove Bryant's Cove Red Head Cove Conception Bay Inset

Upper Island Cove Old Perlican Bay de Verde Bishop's Cove Low Point New Chelsea - New Melbourne - Brownsdale - Sibleys Cove - Lead Cove Spaniard's Bay Caplin Cove Port de Grave Lower Island Cove Hant's Harbour Bay Roberts Job's Cove Bareneed Winterton Burnt Point - Gull Island - Northern Bay Turks Cove Cupids Ochre Pit Cove Western Bay North River New Perlican ch ea B Brigus Heart's Content s er e' iv Small Point - Broad Cove - Blackhead - Adams Cove rk R la h Georgetown Kingston C t ou S Heart's Desire Perry's Cove Pouch Cove Marysvale Salmon Cove Heart's Delight - Islington Victoria Freshwater Makinsons Roaches Line Carbonear Flatrock Harbour Main - Bauline Colliers Cavendish Logy Bay - Chapel Cove - Middle Cove - Conception Harbour Lakeview Whiteway Harbour Grace Bryant's Cove Torbay Outer Cove Wabana Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Avondale Portugal Cove - St. Philip's Green's Harbour Lance Cove Freshwater Brigus Junction Hopeall St. John's Holyrood New Harbour Paradise Mount Pearl Dildo See Old Shop South Dildo Conception Bay South Inset Petty Harbour - Maddox Cove Blaketown

Ocean Pond

Whitbourne

Markland Bay Bulls Ship Harbour Witless Bay Line Salmonier Line Witless Bay Fox Harbour

Mobile Tors Cove Burnt Cove - St. Michaels - Bauline East Placentia Colinet Point Verde Harricott

North Harbour Mount Carmel - Mitchell's Brook- St. Catherine's Brigus South Forest Field - New Bridge Admiral's Cove Cape Broyle St. Joseph's Big Barasway Calvert O'Donnells Aquaforte Ferryland

Admiral's Beach Port Kirwan Patrick's Cove - Angels Cove Mall Bay Riverhead Fermeuse

Renews - Cappahayden

Cuslett Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

St. Mary's St. Bride's Gaskiers - Point La Haye

Branch

Point Lance St. Vincent's - St. Stephen's - Peter's River

Biscay Bay Trepassey

Portugal Cove South

0 4.5 9 18

Kilometers Department of Finance St. Shott's Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency October 12, 2006

See Endnote 12

10 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

2.2 Regional Labour Market Landscape province as a whole. This is largely due to the influence of the St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area, the largest urban centre in the province. Labour markets in the Avalon Peninsula region, like other regions throughout the province, represent a microcosm of provincial labour markets as a whole. The region shares This section of the report provides a quick summary of some key many labour market characteristics, trends, challenges and regional labour market indicators. The remainder of the report opportunities with the province, including those described in will expand upon these indicators to provide a detailed account the preceding section. of current and emerging trends for the labour supply, labour demand and labour market outcomes in the region. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Throughout this report, it will become evident that the Avalon Peninsula region also differs from many of the other regions in General Information performance indicators for its labour market. This region tends to have more favourable demographic trends, education levels, There are approximately 245,423 people living in the Avalon and labour market outcomes than most other regions and the Peninsula region, dispersed among 118 communities and a geography of 9,100 square kilometers. (Figure 1, Table 1)

Table 1: Distribution of Communities Where People Live by Size, 2004

Community Size (2004) Size 500-999 1,000-4,999 5,000-9,999 10,000+ Region 1-499 People Total People People People People (Square km)

# % # % # % # % # % # PeninsulaAvalon Region

Newfoundland and Labrador 405,720 430 73% 96 16% 52 9% 9 2% 6 1% 593

Labrador 294,330 20 65% 6 19% 3 10% 2 6% 0 0% 31

St. Anthony-Port au Choix 10,450 46 88% 5 10% 1 2% 0 0% 0 0% 52

Corner Brook-Rocky Harbour 15,830 27 61% 12 27% 4 9% 0 0% 1 2% 44

Stephenville-Port aux Basques 18,000 44 75% 8 14% 6 10% 1 2% 0 0% 59 Grand Falls-Windsor-Baie Verte- Harbour Breton 33,180 56 72% 13 17% 8 10% 0 0% 1 1% 78

Gander-New-Wes-Valley 12,700 62 73% 14 16% 8 9% 1 1% 0 0% 85

Clarenville-Bonavista 7,650 73 85% 10 12% 2 2% 1 1% 0 0% 86

Burin Peninsula 4,480 30 75% 5 13% 4 10% 1 3% 0 0% 40 Avalon Peninsula 9,100 72 61% 23 19% 16 14% 3 3% 4 3% 118 Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 13 11 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

Within the region, St. John’s is the largest community with an dominate the landscape, however, most of the population lives estimated population of 99,182 people (2001 Census count). The in, or near, more urban communities in the region. St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), which is comprised of St. John’s, Mount Pearl, and a number of surrounding As shown in Table 1, in 2004, 61 per cent of all communities in communities, is the main service and workflow centre. Bay the region had less than 500 people living in them. However, Roberts, Carbonear-Harbour Grace, Placentia, Bay de Verde only 6.8 per cent of the population lived in these communities and the Southern Shore areas serve as five other key service and while 72.8 per cent lived in the region’s seven communities with workflow centres in the region. more then 5,000 people.14 (Figures 2 and 3)

Workforce Distribution Trends in the Working Age Population

The rural-urban distribution of the population plays a significant In 2006, working age individuals (20-64 years) represented the role in the region’s labour markets. Small, rural communities largest share of the population in the region (65.9 per cent), similar to other regions of the province and Canada as a whole.

Proportion of People Living in Communities with Proportion of People Living in Communities with Over 5,000 People, 2004 Less Than 500 People, 2004 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

REGION REGION St. Anthony - Port au Choix 0.0% Avalon Peninsula 6.8%

Clarenville - Bonavista 17.6% Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 13.3%

Gander - New-Wes-Valley 20.6% Newfoundland and Labrador 15.8%

Stephenville - Port aux Basques 22.2% Labrador 16.0% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Burin Peninsula 24.9% 20.2% Breton Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour 27.1% Stephenville - Port aux Basques 21.0% Breton Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 44.6% Gander - New-Wes-Valley 24.0% Figure 3 Figure 2 Newfoundland and Labrador 49.5% Burin Peninsula 24.2% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Labrador 54.8% Clarenville - Bonavista 43.3%

Avalon Peninsula 72.8% St. Anthony - Port au Choix 52.4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 15 See Endnote 16 12 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

An increasing rate of population decline among the working Employment age population is one of the most significant trends that will impact provincial and regional labour markets over the next The proportion of working age individuals employed in the decade. A large share of the baby boom generation will move region is higher than in the province but lower than in Canada.18 into retirement during this period and there will be fewer young Employment growth has occurred at a faster rate at the regional people available to enter the labour market and replace these level since 1996 than in the province, but at a slower rate than in workers. These trends will exert significant pressures on the Canada as a whole. available labour supply in the future.17 (Table 2)

• In 2004, 64.4 per cent of the working age population (15+ Labour Market Indicators and Trends: • The Avalon Peninsula region was the only region in the years) in the region were employed at some point during province to record an increase in its working age population the year compared to 62.9 per cent in the province and 68.4 since 1991. The working age population increased by 7.7 per per cent in Canada. The proportion of working age people cent in the region compared with a decline of 3.1 per cent in employed in the St. John’s CMA (66.7 per cent) was more the province overall; Canada’s working age population grew closely aligned with the Canadian figure. by 19.9 per cent in this period. • Between 1996 and 2004, the proportion of employed • Over the next 15 years, the working age population is individuals in the working age population (15+ years) projected to decline by 8.5 per cent in the region and by 14.6 increased by 6.4 percentage points in the region compared per cent in the province; at a national level the working age to 6.6 and 6.7 percentage points for the province and Canada population will continue to grow, although at a much slower respectively. pace (8.7 per cent) than observed in the past. Evidence of employment growth can also be seen in the Aging Workforce increasing number of weeks individuals worked during the year. However, on average, individuals throughout most regions A rapidly aging population and workforce will pose significant of the province continue to work for fewer weeks during the Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region implications for regional labour markets throughout the year than in the rest of Canada. province. Older workers will form an increasingly larger share of the workforce, prompting major workplace adjustments. For • In 2000, workers in the Avalon Peninsula region worked example, efforts to retain older workers will likely increase with an average of 40.2 weeks during the year compared to 36.9 incentives to delay retirements in order to meet emerging labour weeks in the province overall, 43.8 weeks in Canada and 42.6 demands. There will also likely be a greater emphasis on formal weeks in the St. John’s CMA. succession planning to help employers retain the corporate knowledge that will be lost as older workers leave the labour • Compared to 1995, individuals in the region were working an market. additional 1.4 weeks longer during the year in 2000. Employment Income • The median age of the regional population is projected to rise from 40.3 years in 2006 to reach 46 years in 2021. This is lower Average employment income in the region is higher than the than the projections of the median age in the province as a province as a whole. While the region’s employment income is whole (49.3 years) in this period, but much higher than the lower than Canada, this gap is closing. projected median age for Canada (42.2 years). • Between 1996 and 2004, the average real employment income for workers in the region grew by 13.7 per cent compared to 12.8 per cent for the province, 9.9 per cent for Canada and 13.9 per cent in the St. John’s CMA. 13 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

The economic self-reliance ratio (the percentage of total income • The proportion of the prime working age population (25-54 that comes from market sources such as employment income, years) with a university degree in the region was 18.0 per investment income and private pensions) has also increased. cent, compared to 12.8 per cent for the province and 20.9 per cent for Canada. • The economic self-reliance ratio in the region was 82.7 per • Compared to the region, education levels were relatively cent in 2004, representing an increase of 3.7 percentage points higher in the St. John’s CMA where only 18.2 per cent of since 1996. the working age population had less than a high school In 2004, average employment income levels for women were education in 2001 and 21.7 per cent had a university degree. significantly lower than reported levels for men throughout all jurisdictions. Although womens’ employment income has Industry Highlights grown at a faster pace than those for men, significant gaps still Employment in the Avalon Peninsula region is largely remain. dependent upon the service–producing industries. Over 80 per cent of the employment in the region in 2000 was in the service Businesses sector, the highest proportion of all the regions, and higher than the province and Canada. The top employing industries in 2000 In 2004, 47.8 per cent of all firms in the province were in the were health and social service, retail trade, government service,

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Avalon Peninsula region, consistent with the region’s share of and educational service. These four groups accounted for 45 per the provincial population. cent of all workers in the region.

Small businesses (those with less than 5 employees) make up the The public sector is an important employer, with the seat of largest share of employers throughout the province, although Provincial Government being located in the region. Federal there is a slightly lower proportion of these in the region than in employment is also important for the region, although there the province overall. have been reductions over the last number of years.

Education The region has a vibrant tourism industry. Infrastructure has grown in terms of hotel rooms and convention facilities, and Education levels have been increasing among all age groups considerable effort has been expended to develop St. John’s as throughout the regions. However, education levels among an attractive cruise ship port of call. those in the prime working age population (25-54 years) remain lower in the province than in Canada as a whole. Education Transportation infrastructure along the Avalon Peninsula levels within most regions are generally lower again, although region has been developed considerably in recent years. One indicators for the larger, more urban communities tend to be

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour of the most significant improvements has been the $48 million directly comparable to, and in some cases, higher than national in expenditures at the St. John’s Airport. Airport passenger levels. The Avalon Peninsula region is the only region to have traffic at St. John’s airport has grown significantly. The region higher overall education levels than for the province. has also benefited from income growth which has resulted in considerable investment in retail and other service related • In 2001, 22.9 per cent of the prime working age population infrastructure. (25-54 years) in the region had less than high school, compared to 30.8 per cent for the province overall and 19.5 per cent at the national level.

14 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

Table 2: Summary Labour Market Indicators for Avalon Peninsula Region, Province and Canada

Indicator Canada Province (NL) Avalon Peninsula St. John’s CMA

Working Age Population as a Proportion of Total Population (2006) 62.8% 64.8% 65.9% 67.1% Change 1991-2006 19.9% -3.1% 7.7% 12.9% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Change 2006-2021 8.7% -14.6% -8.5% -3.1% Population

Working Age Working Median Age 2021 (Total Population) 42.2 49.3 46.0 44.5 (20-64 Years Old) Years (20-64 Number of People Who Claimed Employment Income in 2004 17,275,690 270,580 129,340 96,960 Change Since 1996 18.5% 8.6% 13.8% 15.6% Proportion of Population (15+ Years) Who Claimed Employment Income in 2004 68.4% 62.9% 64.4% 66.7%

Change Since 1996 (pts.) 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.6

% Male Workers (18-64 Years), 2000 52.6% 53.3% 51.8% 50.9% % Female Workers (18-64 Years), 2000 47.4% 46.7% 48.1% 49.1%

People Who Worked Average Weeks Worked (18-64 Years), 2000 43.8 36.9 40.2 42.6 Change in Average Weeks Worked (18-64 Years), 1995-2000 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 Average Employment Income (Nominal) 2004 34,910 26,503 30,183 33,284 Change in Real Income Since 1996 9.9% 12.8% 13.7% 13.9% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Average Employment Income Females (Nominal) 2004 26,929 20,579 24,079 26,569 Change in Real Income Since 1996 12.0% 18.0% 17.8% 17.3% Average Employment Income Males (Nominal) 2004 42,225 31,775 35,917 39,810 Change in Real Income Since 1996 10.1% 12.2% 12.7% 12.9%

Employment Income Economic Self-Reliance Ratio 2004 88.2% 78.1% 82.7% 86.4% Change Since 1996 (pts.) 2.1 4.4 3.7 2.6 # of Businesses 1,042,316 17,127 8,189 6,337 % of All Businesses in Province N/A N/A 47.8% 37.0% (2004) % of Businesses with Less Than 5 Employees 56.6% 60.1% 56.3% 52.0% Businesses

% of People (25-54 Years) with Less Than High School 19.5% 30.8% 22.9% 18.2%

(2001) % of People (25-54 Years) with University Degree 20.9% 12.8% 18.0% 21.7% Education

Data Source(s): Various used throughout report; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 19

15 Labour Market Landscape: An Overview

Offshore oil development has played a major role in the Participants agreed that the aging workforce will have an impact expansion of the region. Some of the services and infrastructure on the future availability of workers. For physically demanding tied to this development include the supply base, helicopter occupations, working to age 65 is a challenge, let alone working services, commercial office space purchases, and industrial longer. There are indications that many workers expect or want park development. A number of branch offices of major oil to retire at age 65 or earlier, and questions related to worker companies are located in the region. Future projects such as the burnout remain unanswered. development of Hebron oil, and natural gas, could mean further development for the region. Suggestions were made around addressing the future demand for workers. These suggestions were in the areas of career Future Outlook planning, recruitment and retention, worker training, and increased participation. They included: In late Fall 2005, local representatives of business, labour, government, post-secondary institutions and community • Providing counsellors, youth, parents, and the general agencies participated in three labour market information community with current, valid labour market information so workshops held within the Avalon Peninsula region. that young people can be informed of the full range of career opportunities available to them; In general, the population trends presented were considered • Providing more competitive wages, benefits and other Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula to be consistent with participants’ experiences. A decline in improvements to working conditions; traditional industries was thought to be creating perceptions of economic uncertainty in many regions and leading to out- • Promoting quality of life to workers as a competitive migration. High student debt loads were thought to be one of advantage for the province; the primary drivers of youth out-migration as well as a factor influencing declining birth rates. • Increasing access to information about the cost of living and lifestyle issues in all jurisdictions to help workers make more informed decisions about staying in, leaving, or coming to, Overall, participants’ views on the future outlook for the region the province; were optimistic. They identified potential growth opportunities in industries such as oil and gas, hydro development, health • Developing comprehensive immigration strategy to help care, construction, and marine services, and in the supply of address skills shortages (e.g., encourage international goods and services to other parts of the province. However, students to stay in the province); participants expressed concerns about labour shortages and the impact that this could have on future economic development • Aligning educational training and employment opportunities and growth. They identified shortages and hard-to-fill positions more closely (e.g., workplace relevant training that occurred that were already emerging in the region. Some of these for the hydromet demonstration plant in Argentia); Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour included professional positions, highly skilled specialized • Increasing support from local employers for training of occupations in health, various therapists, nurses, cooks, higher apprentices and better recognition of certification (i.e., level technology occupations, heavy duty mechanics, industrial Interprovincial Red Seal); and electricians, engineers, accountants, health sciences, human resources, public relations and safety management. • Providing more home and work place supports for persons with disabilities to participate fully in the labour market.

16 3.0 InDicators and Trends in The Labour Supply Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

The labour supply generally refers to those people in the working age population (15+ years) who are willing and available to work.

Demographic trends, globalization and advancing technologies are the primary forces currently impacting the labour supply. These trends will also pose some of the most significant labour market challenges in the future, for the region, province and throughout most developed economies in the world. Regions throughout Newfoundland and Labrador will likely experience the impacts of these trends earlier than elsewhere, including skill and labour shortages. This will be largely due to unique characteristics in the labour supply related to natural population change, migration, workforce location, labour force participation and education, as well as other factors.

In order to prepare for and respond to these challenges, individuals and organizations need a clear understanding of current characteristics and trends among the labour supply. These include measures such as the actual number of workers or potential workers available and the amount of time or effort they are willing to expend on work. Other factors to consider include the knowledge, skills, abilities, experience and other qualitative characteristics of the people who are working or are available for work.

Given the wide geographic distribution of the population among communities throughout the province, detailed knowledge about the labour supply at the regional level is very important. Knowledge about the labour supply in adjacent regions is equally important. These other jurisdictions could provide an additional source of labour in the future or conversely, increase the competition for workers and the risk of labour and skills shortages.

This section of the report provides a comprehensive overview of key trends and characteristics for the regional labour supply, including comparative data for selected indicators in other regions, the province and Canada. A description of trends and implications for the following indicators are included in this section:

• Labour Force • Regional Workflows • Working Age Population • Migration • Immigration • Aging Workforce • Education • Future Population Projections • Those Not in the Labour Force and Under-Represented Groups Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.1 Labour Force Since 1997 the labour force has recovered steadily and, in 2005, there were more people in the labour force than in 1991. Figure 5 demonstrates that labour force trends in the region have The labour force refers to the number of people who are working been consistent with provincial trends throughout the 1987 to or looking for work (or the employed and unemployed). The 2005 period.20 Throughout this profile a number of trends are size of the labour force is an important indicator of the number referenced for the St. John’s CMA. Figures for these trends, of workers currently available, while trends in the size of the including labour force, are contained in Appendix C. labour force can be an important indicator of the number of workers that may be available in the future. Labour force trends can also point to perceptions of current economic conditions. Women and the Labour Force

As economic conditions improve, the labour force tends to Figure 4 also shows that women have been the driving force increase. Individuals are drawn into the labour market in the behind all labour force growth in the province since the late belief that jobs are more readily available; this is especially 1970s. Although a gap still exists when comparing the number true for discouraged workers who have previously given up of women and men in the labour force, the gap has closed searching for work. A decline in the labour force may point significantly. In 2005, there were approximately 13,000 fewer to weakening economic conditions. However, changes in the women than men in the labour force on an average annual basis; in 1976, there were 66,000 fewer women than men in the labour size of the working age population may also impact this trend. 21 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula The labour force is comprised of individuals from this larger force. population. Therefore, a decline in the size of the working age population will likely result in a decline in the labour force.

Some of the most significant trends that have shaped the regional and provincial labour force in recent years include the impacts of the Cod Moratoria and recession during the early to mid 1990s; the increased participation among women in the labour market; and the aging of the workforce.

Labour Force Growth

As shown in Figure 4, the provincial labour force increased steadily in the province during the late 1970s and the 1980s. Economic conditions were generally positive during that time

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour and more people entered the labour market in search of work.

The labour force reached a peak of approximately 250,000 people on an annual average basis in 1991 followed by a period of significant decline during the early 1990s as a result of poor economic conditions. These conditions were largely associated with a global recession and the Cod Moratoria.

18 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Labour Force by Gender, NL, 1976 to 2005 Labour Force, Avalon Peninsula Economic Region, (Annual Average) 1987 to 2005 (Annual Average) Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

Both Sexes Females Males Economic Region 1010: Avalon Peninsula 140,000 300,000 129,700

120,000 109,700

100,000 200,000

80,000

60,000 Figure 4 Figure 5 100,000 40,000 Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region

20,000

0 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada. Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.

19 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Labour Force Location Figure 6 shows that in 2005, Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest percentage of its labour force residing in rural areas Another distinguishing characteristic of the provincial labour (46.9 per cent) compared to the other Atlantic provinces and market is the distribution of the labour force throughout rural Canada as a whole. The Avalon Peninsula LFS region accounted areas. This is not surprising given that the provincial population for 51.4 per cent of the province’s labour force in that year and is dispersed among approximately 593 communities and a the CMA accounted for 39.2 per cent.22 (Figure 7) geographic area of 405,720 square kilometers.

Labour Force Location, Canada and Atlantic Provinces, 2005 Labour Force Location, Economic Regions, NL, 2005 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

CMA/CA Non-CMA/CA REGION 100% Economic Region 1020: South Coast - Burin 7.0% Peninsula 82.2% 80% Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) 12.1% 66.7%

56.3% Economic Region 1030: West Coast - 60% 55.5% 20.8% 53.1% Northern Peninsula - Labrador 46.9% 43.7% 44.5% Economic Region 1040: Notre Dame - 40% 20.9% 33.3% Central Bonavista Bay Figure 6 Figure 7

17.8% 20% St. John's CMA 39.2% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Economic Region 1010: Avalon Peninsula 51.4% 0% Canada Newfoundland Prince Edward Nova Scotia New Brunswick and Labrador Island 0% 20% 40% 60%

Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada. Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.

20 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.2 Commuting Trends and Workflow Areas Regional Commuting Trends As shown in Figure 8, in 2001 approximately 35 per cent of Commuting for work is an increasing trend among workers in the province and 43 per cent of workers in the region workers throughout the country, including most regions in usually travelled outside their home community to work on Newfoundland and Labrador. An understanding of commuting a daily basis. Individuals in the region that normally worked and workflow patterns is critical to better understand the outside their home communities travelled an average distance of available labour supply and employment opportunities available 15 miles per day, one way, for their jobs. (Table 3) to individuals.23 Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

Proportion of People Who Live and Work in Different Communities, NL and Regions, 2001 Table 3: Average Distance Travelled for Work by People Who Worked Outside Their Community of Residence, 2001

Average Distance Number of People Travelled (One Way) to Usually REGION Region Usual Travelling to Other Clarenville - Bonavista 43.6% Place of Work Communities (Miles) for Work Avalon Peninsula 43.0% Gander-New-Wes-Valley 28 2,675 Newfoundland and Labrador 35.0% Burin Peninsula 25 1,690 PeninsulaAvalon Region Burin Peninsula 33.2% Clarenville-Bonavista 24 3,065

Stephenville - Port aux Basques 31.8% St.Anthony-Port au Choix 23 660 Newfoundland and Labrador 16 51,788 Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 26.5% Avalon Peninsula 15 35,330

Figure 8 Gander - New-Wes-Valley 24.4% Grand Falls-Windsor-Baie Verte-Harbour Breton 14 2,158 St. Anthony - Port au Choix 22.6% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Corner Brook-Rocky Harbour 13 3,290 19.3% Breton Stephenville-Port aux Basques 12 1,935 Labrador 9.6% Labrador 9 985

0% 20% 40% 60% Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labour and Employment. Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 25

See Endnote 24

21 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Natural Workflow Areas

Workflow patterns among individuals and communities in the region can be narrowed to six natural workflow areas including St. John’s, Bay Roberts, Carbonear-Harbour Grace, Placentia, Bay de Verde and the Southern Shore. Figures 9A through 9F demonstrate the workflow patterns among workers in these areas.

These figures point to a strong mutual dependency among communities (and, in many cases, regions) when it comes to employment and available workers. These interdependencies suggest that changing economic conditions in a single community can have far reaching impacts among individuals and employers in other communities and regions.

Table 4 demonstrates the impacts of commuting patterns on the

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula available labour supply. For example, there were an estimated 7,337 prime working age people (25-54 years) living within 10 miles of Bay Roberts in 2004. When commuting patterns are considered, there were an estimated 18,613 people living within a normal commuting distance (30 miles), which significantly expands the potential labour supply for Bay Roberts. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

22 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Figure 9A: St. John’s Workflow Area, 2001

B N u e r w n - t W P o e i s Travel Flow to Usual Location of Work by n - V t- G a l u le Place of Residence, 2001 Census l l y Is t l o a n S d t Workers that remain Workers that travel to community - . G N J an o o in place of residence other than place of residence d r h e t r h n L to e 's 10 to 60 e S r w t n → 10 to 60 i . sp Jo B o h a 61 to 155 rte n' y 61 to 155 s to → to S 156 to 430 t. S Jo t. 156 to 430 h J n o 's h → n Pouch Cove 431 to 830 's → 1705 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: 831 to 1760 Cl e

a v ren ville o to C S 2375 t. J r 1761 to 2140 oh e n's Flatrock t → Bauline u

o 2141 to 3055

C C arb e 35380 o l near to d St. J o d ← St hn's i . John → 's to M

- Sunny 4530 Ha side Torbay y rbo a ur G ra B ← ce t o y St. J St. o J g hn's ohn N ' Wabana o to Ha s → rbou L Upp r Gr ← er Is ace land 7930 Mo Cove un to S t P t. Joh Portugal Cove-St. Philip's ea n's → rl t o S un nys L ide ance Cove Spaniard's B ay to St. John's → Bay Roberts to St. John's → Roads Dildo to St. John's → St. John's Harbour Hills to St. John's → 0 5 10 20 to St. John's → Clarke's Beach 's → St. John Kilometers upids to n's → C St. Joh iver to South R s → Paradise John' to St. Brigus Mount n's → Joh Concep Pearl o St. e tion Ba t rn y PeninsulaAvalon Region vale itbou S arys Wh outh M 's to → John n's St. Joh ← St. e to ourn Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove hitb → W 's → n's ohn oh iew → t. J t. J ev 's to S S ak hn ers r to e-L Jo olli ou ov St. C arb C to → H el le n's ion ap da oh pt h n . J nce n-C vo St Co ai A to M wn → ur to n's rbo rys oh a Ma . J H St to ne rtu Fo

→ ood yr s l ' Ho s → hn' n t. Jo h o S o t J tia n . lace t P S

o t

s a Bay Bulls

e → → → a Witless Bay 's 's s h ' n n

c n h h i

→ → h o o

M y o J J s

' a J . . . t t t

n B . t S S

S h s

- S s o o o t t e e o

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. i n o t e s W b l a

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C y

o e o o r

t t

o r r t t m n M e r

B r r

t F

e e r u e v F l e p

B Department of Finance

v a l C C a Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency C Tors Cove

23 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Figure 9B: Bay Roberts Workflow Area, 2001

C p

a o →

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i y

o e r a t

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d c e Upper Island Cove B s n b

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Green's Harbour

w H

B Sp e ani H Bay ard's Bay to

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r a

Port de Grave to St. John's →

→ Hopeall r b Port de Grave o u Bay r s → to St. John' G Bay Roberts r Roberts a New c e t. John's → Harbour Cupids to S ← S t. John's to Bay Roberts → St. John's hn's → Dildo to Cupids St. Jo iver to O th R → Dildo h Sou hn's → l → o 's d c n's . J hn r a t. Joh St Jo e to S e to t. S v e gus al S i B Bri rysv s to h R Ma llier o 's o th e C p r s n o rk gu w N la r ri to e B e C v g i or Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula R e South Dildo G h Travel Flow to Usual Location of Work by t u o Place of Residence, 2001 Census S le va ys Workers that remain Workers that travel to community ar M in place of residence other than place of residence Makinsons ne Li rs 10 to 30 10 to 30 Blaketown s e our e li arb h l H → c o tion n's a C ep oh 31 to 50 31 to 50 N o onc t. J o R C o S rm t a to n 51 to 75 ' 51 to 75 W s h C it o b ve o - ur L n on 76 to 100 C e g 76 to 100 h → C a ov → W p e hn's h el St. Jo itb Arm urne to ou to Whitbo t. rne Whitbourne to S 101 to 175 101 to 175 → ale John's → ← St. John's to Whitbourne Avond 255 Roads

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour 690 § Markland 0 4 8 16

Kilometers Department of Finance Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency

24 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Figure 9C: Carbonear-Harbour Grace Workflow Area, 2001

→

n a c i l Heart's Content r e

d l Small Point-Adams Cove-Blackhead-Broad Cove

o t

n i

r a Kingston e n o b Labour Market Indicators and Trends: r a C

o t

y a Perry's Cove B

n r e t s e

W n lmo ← a S ve Co

Heart's Delight-Islington Victoria Travel Flow to Usual Location of Work by Freshwater Place of Residence, 2001 Census Workers that remain Workers that travel to community in place of residence other than place of residence 15 to 35 15 to 35 Carbonear 36 to 55 36 to 55 Car bone ar to St. 56 to 90 56 to 90 John ← 's → Har bour Gra 91 to 255 91 to 255 PeninsulaAvalon Region ce to Su Cavendish nny side r 725 Roads u

b r y a a § B H → s r ' . John's to Harbour Grace w a d Harbour ← St e r 0 4 8 e n o a 1020 b i N Grace r n Ha a rbour a Gra o C ce t t Whiteway o p o St t . Joh Kilometers r S n's → h to

u o

s o t o →

→ → i t y

r a o

e t h r e

d a B c e c

a s c c n H a t

s r a a a s e ' r e r

' r d G e n n e v r e r G b B G o a e i a u o r r r b n o s G r u ' Upper Island Cove R u C a b o o e t a r o p e y k v U b y ppe a b o r r a I r sl C a a C n S B d r C ov ← a d 's e H a n to l a d Department of Finance B la r St Is ia . Jo H n hn C r

← H e a Upper Island Cove to Port de Grave 's → p p ← Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency p S U ←

25 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Figure 9D: Placentia Workflow Area, 2001

Travel Flow to Usual Location of Work by Place of Residence, 2001 Census Workers that remain in Workers that travel to community place of residence other than place of residence 10 10 to 20 20 21 to 30 31 to 55 55 80 65 95

790 Roads

Ship Harbour 0 4.5 9 18 § Kilometers

Fox Harbour

's → ohn

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula J St. ntia to Place Placentia inet Col

Mount Carmel-Mitchell's Brook-St. Catherine's

e ov C s el O'Donnells ng A e- ov C s k' ric at P Admiral's Beach Riverhead

R i v e r h e a 's d e Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour d t ri o B T r t. e S p St. Mary's a s s e nch y Bra → Gaskiers-Point La Haye G askiers Poin t La Hay e t o T rep as ce se n y a → L t in o P iver Peter's R Department of Finance tephen's- nt's-St. S Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency St. Vince

26 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Figure 9E: Bay de Verde Workflow Area, 2001

Travel Flow to Usual Location of Work by Place of Residence, 2001 Census Workers that remain Workers that travel to community in place of residence other than place of residence G ra 10 to 15 10 to 15 t e Labour Market Indicators and Trends: s 16 to 35 16 to 35 C o v 36 to 55 36 to 55 e 56 to 75 Roads 125 n ca § rli 170 e P Bay ld de O Ve 0 5 10 20 rde

Kilometers

Road Construction sites z along Route 70 New Chelsea-New Melbourne-Brownsdale-

Sibleys Cove-Lead Cove PeninsulaAvalon Region

Lower Island Cove

Hant's Harbour

n o t r Burnt Point-Gull Island-Northern Bay e t in

W B u rn t P o i t n o t- S G u t. l J l Ochre Pit Cove o Is h la n n 's d → -N o r Western Bay W t C h

e e a

New Perlican s r r n b t e o B r n n a

B Department of Finance e y

→

Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency t o

27 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Figure 9F: Southern Shore Workflow Area, 2001 →

→� � � �

s y .� � � � ' t

n a

→ S

→ h

o o

s s t ' J ' s

n n Travel Flow to Usual Location of Work s h h t e l o o s t i J J a . t . . E by Place of Residence, 2001 Census t W t S - e S S o e n i t v l o o t t t o u r

Workers that remain in Workers that travel to community t a C e e r l t B v e - l y n v r s a l place of residence other than place of residence o l r u e C a B

B a

C h

1 to 20 10 e ic p M 20 a → 21 to 30 C Brigus South 's 25 n h 31 to 60 Admiral's Cove o Cape J 30 t. Broyle S 115 o 40 t rt d lve n Ca la 205 ry r → e Roads Fe F 's rry n lan h d o J 0 4.5 9 18 t. S Aquaforte to Kilometers § se eu rm Fe Fermeuse

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula iv e Renews-Cappahayden r h e a d t o T r e p a s s e y

→

Ga sk ier s- Po in t La H a ye to T re p a s s e y ay → B cay Bis Trepassey → y se as ep

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour r T o t 's tt o h S t. S

Department of Finance Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency

28 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Table 4: Population Within Commuting Distance of Selected Workflow Areas in the Avalon Peninsula Region, 2004

2004 Population Within Commuting Distance of St. John’s Total Population Distribution Population 25-54 Years Percent of Population 25-54 Years Total Population within 30 Miles of St. John’s 186,222 100.0% 88,415 100.0% Population within 0-10 Miles 148,142 79.6% 70,378 79.6% Population within 11-20 Miles 34,208 18.4% 16,311 18.4% Population within 21-30 Miles 3,872 2.1% 1,726 2.0% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: 2004 Population Within Commuting Distance of Bay de Verde Total Population Distribution Population 25-54 Years Percent of Population 25-54 Years Total Population within 30 Miles of Bay de Verde 5,617 100.0% 2,316 100.0% Population within 0-10 Miles 1,595 28.4% 695 30.0% Population within 11-20 Miles 1,309 23.3% 569 24.6% Population within 21-30 Miles 2,713 48.3% 1,052 45.4% 2004 Population Within Commuting Distance of Placentia Total Population Distribution Population 25-54 Years Percent of Population 25-54 Years Total Population within 30 Miles of Placentia 7,793 100.0% 3,256 100.0% Population within 0-10 Miles 4,578 58.7% 1,907 58.6% Population within 11-20 Miles 633 8.1% 265 8.1% Population within 21-30 Miles 2,582 33.1% 1,084 33.3% 2004 Population Within Commuting Distance of Bay Roberts Total Population Distribution Population 25-54 Years Percent of Population 25-54 Years Total Population within 30 Miles of Bay Roberts 42,424 100.0% 18,613 100.0%

Population within 0-10 Miles 16,670 39.3% 7,337 39.4% PeninsulaAvalon Region Population within 11-20 Miles 17,048 40.2% 7,562 40.6% Population within 21-30 Miles 8,706 20.5% 3,714 20.0%

Population Within Commuting Distance of Carbonear 2004 Total Population Distribution Population 25-54 Years Percent of Population 25-54 Years Total Population within 30 Miles of Carbonear 41,292 100.0% 18,001 100.0% Population within 0-10 Miles 11,707 28.4% 5,155 28.6% Population within 11-20 Miles 19,802 48.0% 8,578 47.7% Population within 21-30 Miles 9,783 23.7% 4,268 23.7%

Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 26

29 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.3 Working Age Population

The working age population generally includes all those people who are 15 years or older in the population. Trends among the Proportion of People in Working Age Population working age population can have significant impacts on the (20-64 Years) by Region, 2006 available labour supply as this is the source of all workers and potential workers in the labour market.

REGION Throughout this report, the definition of the working age Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) 62.6% population has often been narrowed to the population of 20 to 64 year olds. In other cases it is further narrowed to the prime Canada 62.8% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour 63.0% working age of 25 to 54 years. Generally, youth between the Breton ages of 15 and 24 years are still in school (secondary or post- Gander - New-Wes-Valley 63.1% secondary) and not readily available for work. This is expected Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 63.3%

to continue in the future considering increasing enrolment rates Stephenville - Port aux Basques 63.7% in post-secondary education programs over the past decade and increasing demands for higher skill levels in the labour market. Clarenville - Bonavista 63.8% Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula St. Anthony - Port au Choix 64.3% Furthermore, the average retirement age among workers in Newfoundland and Labrador 64.8% Newfoundland and Labrador is currently about 59 years of age. Figure 10 Labrador 65.2% Even with the elimination of mandatory retirement legislation, Burin Peninsula 65.6% the average retirement age is not expected to dramatically Avalon Peninsula 65.9% increase or surpass 65 years of age in the near future. St. John's CMA 67.1%

Distribution of the Working Age Population 40% 50% 60% 70%

In 2006, the Avalon Peninsula region accounted for approximately 49 per cent (or 161,790 persons) of the total Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis working age population (20-64 years) in the province. As in the Division, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human rest of the province and other jurisdictions, the working age Resources, Labour and Employment. population currently makes up the largest proportion of the See Endnote 27 population within the region (65.9 per cent). Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

30 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Changes in the Working Age Population A declining population and slowing population growth may also limit the number of workers and potential workers in Slowing population growth is a major labour market concern for the labour markets here and elsewhere. This will potentially most modern economies. In this province, population decline is lead to labour and skill shortages over the next decade as the already occurring. These trends hold a number of implications competition for workers increases. for future labour markets. Figures 11 and 12 demonstrate that the region and the province For example, a declining population could lead to shifts in experienced population decline between 1991 and 2006.

the types of occupations individuals work in due to changing While total population decline is expected to continue, future Labour Market Indicators and Trends: demands for goods and services, such as increases in the health projections indicate that this will occur at a much slower pace care sector due to population aging. than observed in the past.

Population Change by Region, 1991 to 2006 Population Change by Region, 2006 to 2021

REGION REGION

St. Anthony - Port au Choix -28.0% Burin Peninsula -20.7% Burin Peninsula -25.0% Stephenville - Port aux Basques -17.3%

Stephenville - Port aux Basques -23.8% Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) -13.5% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Clarenville - Bonavista -20.1% St. Anthony - Port au Choix -12.6% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour -19.3% Clarenville - Bonavista -10.8% Breton Gander - New-Wes-Valley -18.8% Gander - New-Wes-Valley -10.6% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) -16.2% -9.1% Breton Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour -13.8% Newfoundland and Labrador -5.6% Figure 11 Labrador -13.4% Figure 12 Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour -4.8%

Newfoundland and Labrador -12.1% Labrador -3.1%

Avalon Peninsula -2.4% Avalon Peninsula -0.5%

St. John's CMA 3.5% St. John's CMA 4.1%

Canada 16.4% Canada 12.5%

-40% -20% 0% 20% -30% -15% 0% 15%

Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Division, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 28 See Endnote 29

31 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

In contrast, as shown in Figures 13 and 14, the decline in the • Despite the projected decreases in the working age provincial working age population has been much slower than population, the Avalon Peninsula region has the most the total population since 1991 (the Avalon Peninsula region favourable demographic outlook of all the regions, largely was the only region of the province where the working age due to the St. John’s CMA. The anticipated decline in the population grew in this period). However, the rate of decline working age population to 2021 is the lowest among regions. among this population is expected to increase dramatically over the next 15 years as a large proportion of baby boomers move into retirement and fewer young people are available to enter the labour market.

• Between 2006 and 2021, the working age population in the region is projected to decline by 8.5 per cent.

Population Change by Region (20-64 Years), Population Change by Region (20-64 Years), 1991 to 2006 2006 to 2021 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

REGION REGION St. Anthony - Port au Choix -20.8% Stephenville - Port aux Basques -30.0%

Stephenville - Port aux Basques -16.5% Burin Peninsula -29.5%

Burin Peninsula -13.3% St. Anthony - Port au Choix -26.2% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour -12.3% Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) -25.0% Breton Clarenville - Bonavista -10.4% Gander - New-Wes-Valley -20.4%

Gander - New-Wes-Valley -10.1% Clarenville - Bonavista -19.7% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour -8.6% -19.3% Breton Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) -5.5% Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour -15.6%

Figure 13 Labrador -5.2% Figure 14 Newfoundland and Labrador -14.6%

Newfoundland and Labrador -3.1% Labrador -9.6%

Avalon Peninsula 7.7% Avalon Peninsula -8.5% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour St. John's CMA 12.9% St. John's CMA -3.1%

Canada 19.9% Canada 8.7%

-40% -20% 0% 20% -40% -20% 0% 20%

See Endnote 30 See Endnote 31

32 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Natural Population Change 3.4 Migration Natural population change (births minus deaths) is one of the primary factors impacting current population trends in Migration patterns have a significant influence on population the province and elsewhere. As indicated in Figure 15, the trends. The number of people who leave or move into an area province’s natural population growth rate has been decreasing fluctuates and largely depends on economic circumstances and in 2005-06 natural population decline occurred where the within the region, province and the rest of Canada. Migration number of deaths exceeded the number of births for the first between communities, regions, provinces and countries is a naturally occurring phenomenon in all jurisdictions. Migration is

time. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: very dynamic with a constant movement of people into, and out of, an area.

Intraprovincial migration includes those who move within the province (e.g., Corner Brook and Deer Lake) and interprovincial migration includes those who move between provinces (e.g., Natural Population Change, NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06 Alberta and Ontario). Immigration and emigration are the respective terms used to describe those who move to Canada from another country and those who leave Canada to live elsewhere.

Births Deaths Natural Population Change It is important to recognize that all patterns of migration 15,000 are occurring in Newfoundland and Labrador at any given 12,746 time. However, out-migration is the primary concern among 12,000 stakeholders throughout all regions of the province because,

generally, there are more people leaving the province than those PeninsulaAvalon Region 9,000 who are moving into the province which results in a net impact of population loss. Although detailed information on migration 6,000 4,368 is not currently available for regions, feedback from stakeholders indicate that many of the provincial migration trends are also People 3,000 occurring at the regional level and in most cases, to a greater 33 Figure 15 extent. 0 This section of the report will provide a brief overview of the -3,000 trends in net out-migration from the province. It will also -3,269 -4,494 provide an in-depth look at inter- and intraprovincial migration -6,000 in response to these widespread concerns. Various aspects of -72 -77 -82 -87 -92 -97 -02 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 migration are explored including reasons why people move, where they move, the age and education level of migrants and the occupations of out-migrants. Immigration trends are discussed in Section 3.5. Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada.

See Endnote 32

33 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Net Out-Migration Net Migration, NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06

As shown in Figure 16, net out-migration has been a characteristic of the provincial labour markets for many years. However, negative economic pressures associated with a recession and Cod Moratoria prompted record levels of net out- 0 migration during the 1992 to 1998 period.

The net loss of people from the province due to migration slowed significantly and returned to more traditional levels as economic conditions improved in the province between 1998 -5,000 and 2003. In the past two years, net out-migration has increased slightly, however, levels are still well below those observed in the mid-1990s. People

-10,000

Historically, within the province, high birth rates and natural Figure 16 population growth more than offset the net population loss from

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula migration and allowed the provincial population to grow. This is no longer the case as the province begins to experience natural

population decline. -15,000

-72 -78 -84 -90 -96 -02 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001

Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada.

See Endnote 34 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

34 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Why People Move Where People Move

Preliminary findings from research carried out on out-migrants The majority of out-migrants are often drawn to larger, growing indicate that the majority of people move away from the economies where employment opportunities are arising. As province to find work. The other main reasons people move shown in Figure 17, Ontario and Nova Scotia have consistently are to be near family or to pursue further education. More been the most popular destinations for interprovincial out- women than men leave the province for family-related reasons, migrants from the province. However, the proportion of out- however, the majority of women still move for work-related migrants going to Alberta has rapidly grown over the past 35 decade. The largest share of in-migrants to the province have reasons. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: come from these three provinces as well, as indicated in Figure 18.

Average Annual Distribution of Interprovincial Out-Migrants Average Annual Distribution of Interprovincial In-Migrants by Province of Destination, NL, 1971-1976 and 2001-2006 by Province of Origin, NL, 1971-1976 and 2001-2006

60% 1971-72 to 1975-76 2001-02 to 2005-06 80% 1971-72 to 1975-76 2001-02 to 2005-06

49.9%

58.0% 60% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region 40% 33.0% 33.9% 43.9%

40%

18.8% 20% 15.4% 21.1% Figure 17 14.0% Figure 18 20% 17.4% 11.2% 10.7% 13.3% 14.4% 8.4% 10.9% 9.7% 8.1% 4.8% 3.3%

0% 0% Ontario Alberta Nova Scotia PEI/NB/Que Other Ontario Alberta Nova Scotia PEI/NB/Que Other Provinces/ Provinces/ Territories Territories

Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 36 See Endnote 37

35 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

A significant number of people are also moving between Migration data is not available for Rural Secretariat regions, communities and regions within the province. Some of the major however, it is available for other geographic areas in the factors cited for this trend included the decline in traditional province, such as Census Divisions.39 As shown in Figure 19, industries, especially the fishery, and general economic decline many people move from other parts of the province to the St. in rural communities; restructuring and regionalization of John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Other areas that also government services; and increased access to employment recorded net in-migration include the Humber District and opportunities, amenities and services in more urban areas. Central Census Divisions. Concerns about the future sustainability of smaller communities and continued population decline are also thought to be influencing movement between regions and other provinces.38

Net Intraprovincial Migration by Census Division and St. John’s CMA, NL, 1986-1991 and 1999-2004 1986-1991 1999-2004

8,000 6,541 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula 6,000 5,161

4,000 2,997

2,000 1,878 1,119 608 462 407 303 169 40 0 -198 -362 -594 -706 -849 -855 -896 -2,000 -979 -974 Figure 19 -1,092 -1,177 -1,380 -1,465 Central Labrador South Coast St. George's Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour St. John's CMA Humber District Burin Peninsula Bonavista/Trinity Notre Dame Bay Avalon Peninsula Northern Peninsula Avalon Peninsula (non-CMA)

Census Division/CMA Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 40

36 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Table 5: Intraprovincial and Interprovincial Out-Migration, NL, 1996 to 2001

Where were these people living in 1996?

Rural In 2001, 72,990 people from Newfoundland and Communities Small Towns Grand Falls- Gander Corner Brook Labrador City Labrador were living in different communities (Less Than (1,000 to 9,999 St. John’s CMA Windsor CA CA CA CA than they lived in 1996. 1,000 People) People) Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Total 22.5% 32.1% 29.1% 3.9% 3.8% 5.7% 2.8% 72,990 16,450 23,405 21,265 2,850 2,770 4,150 2,075 Where were these people living in 2001? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Within Newfoundland and Labrador 35.5% 46.7% 39.2% 21.5% 36.3% 33.9% 37.8% 44.1% Rural Communities (Less Than 1,000 People) 5.8% - 9.2% 6.2% 2.5% 4.5% 7.3% 12.3% Small Towns (1,000 to 9,999 People) 9.9% 21.5% - 10.9% 11.6% 12.1% 12.0% 11.1% St. John’s CMA 13.4% 18.1% 20.9% - 17.9% 15.5% 15.3% 16.4% Grand Falls-Windsor CA 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.3% - 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% Gander CA 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 0.9% 2.1% - 0.7% 1.9% Corner Brook CA 2.2% 2.6% 3.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% - 1.0% Labrador City CA 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 1.0% - Outside of the Province 64.5% 53.3% 60.8% 78.5% 63.7% 66.1% 62.2% 55.9% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region NS 9.2% 6.1% 8.8% 11.8% 4.7% 12.1% 9.6% 13.3% NB 3.0% 2.5% 2.4% 3.5% 4.0% 4.7% 4.8% 2.4% PE 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% QC 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8% 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% 9.4% ON 24.1% 19.6% 22.1% 29.6% 28.2% 28.3% 20.2% 20.0% MB 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.7% 0.5% SK 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% AB 18.9% 18.4% 19.0% 21.4% 17.5% 12.3% 17.0% 8.7% BC 3.2% 1.4% 2.9% 5.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.1% 0.5% Elsewhere in Canada 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 41

37 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Table 5 shows that in 2001, 72,990 people from Newfoundland and Labrador were living in different communities than they had lived in 1996. This indicates that they had moved at least once in this five-year time period. Most of these individuals moved outside of the province (approximately 65 per cent) and the remainder moved among communities in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The largest proportion of people who moved between 1996 and 2001 (55 per cent) had previously lived in more rural areas of the province. About 23 per cent of the people that moved in this period previously lived in small communities of less than 1,000 people and 32 per cent had lived in small towns of 1,000 to 9,999 people. The remaining 45 per cent had previously lived in more urban areas including the St. John’s CMA and the Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor, Corner Brook and Labrador City CAs.

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula People from rural communities and small towns were more likely to move within the province (46.7 per cent and 39.2 per cent respectively). Of the 25,875 or so people (35.5 per cent) who moved within the province between 1996 and 2001, only 38 per cent (or 9,775 people) relocated to the St. John’s CMA. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

38 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Age of Migrants

Across most jurisdictions, younger workers and youth tend to be more mobile and likely to move away from their home communities than older workers. Figures 20 and 21 clearly reflect these trends where the largest number of interprovincial migrants to and from the province has been among the 15 to 29 year old age group. Interprovincial Out-Migration by Age (15-64 Years), NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: It is interesting to note that between the late 1990s and 2003, migration among older individuals (45-64 years) steadily increased. In contrast, out-migration among youth decreased in

this period. Since 2003 however, there has been a sharp increase 15-29 Yrs 30-44 Yrs 45-64 Yrs in migration patterns (both in and out-migration) among all age 10,000 groups.

In general, there have almost been as many in-migrants to the 8,000 7,516 province as there have been out-migrants among individuals 30 to 64 years old. As a result, net out-migration among this age group has had relatively little impact on the size and age 6,000 structure of the provincial labour supply.

4,800

Figure 20 4,000 This is not the same situation for youth. Although youth 3,242 represent the largest share of in-migrants to the province, there Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region are relatively more youth who leave the province each year. 2,000 2,486 2,015 As shown in Figure 22, youth have accounted for about 88 per cent of the net loss of working age people (15-64 years) in the 1,088 0 province over the last five years. 1971-72 1981-82 1991-92 2001-02

Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada.

See Endnote 42

39 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Interprovincial In-Migration by Age (15-64 Years), Proportion of Net Interprovincial Out-Migrants by Age NL, 1971-72 to 2005-06 (15-64 Years), Five-Year Intervals, NL, 1976-1981 to 2001-2006

15-29 Yrs 30-44 Yrs 45-64 Yrs 15-29 Yrs 30-44 Yrs 45-64 Yrs 10,000 100% 5.4% 6.4% 4.0% 4.4% 6.1% 3.4% 7.4% 8.8% 9.8% 9.7% 15.9% 17.7% 8,000 80% Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

6,000 60%

5,511 88.6% 87.8% 84.7% 83.8% 4,000 3,678 40% 79.7% Figure 21 Figure 22 76.2%

2,757 2,000 2,357 20% 1,828

903 0 0% 1971-72 1981-82 1991-92 2001-02 1976-1981 1981-1986 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006

Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada. Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour See Endnote 43 See Endnote 44

40 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Education Levels Among Migrants Between 1986 to 1991 and 1996 to 2001, the proportion of net out-migrants with a post-secondary education (including Trends in the levels of educational attainment among migrants university degrees) increased from 42.2 per cent to 56.3 per cent. also have an impact on the province’s labour supply. Education levels among youth tend to be higher than the Figures 23 and 24 show that the proportion of out and in- total population. Therefore, these trends are not surprising migrants with higher levels of education has been increasing considering net out-migration observed among youth in the since 1986. preceding section. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: However, as indicated in Figure 25, overall, there has been an increase in the net loss of people in the labour supply with higher levels of education.

Five-Year Out-Migration (15+ Years) by Highest Five-Year In-Migration (15+ Years) by Highest Level of Schooling, NL, 1986 to 2001 Level of Schooling, NL, 1986 to 2001

100% 100%

16.6% 15.7% 16.5% 19.1% 21.3% 21.7%

80% 80%

University Degree University Degree PeninsulaAvalon Region 28.0% 33.5% 29.6% 37.0% Post-Secondary 32.0% 60% 60% 34.1% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma Certificate or Diploma Incomplete Post- Incomplete Post- 12.5% Secondary 10.2% Secondary 13.2% High School Diploma 40% 40% 9.9% High School Diploma 12.3% 12.1% 9.6%

Figure 23 14.5% Figure 24 11.7% Less Than High School 9.6% 8.5% Less Than High School 10.3% 20% 20% 31.5% 28.4% 25.8% 27.2% 26.1% 21.3%

0% 0% 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001

Data Source(s): 1991-2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Data Presentation/ Data Source(s): 1991-2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Data Presentation/ Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 45 See Endnote 46

41 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Five-Year Net Out-Migration (15+ Years) by These trends also point to occupations that are in demand in Highest Level of Schooling, NL, 1986 to 2001 other provinces and that could pose competitive labour supply pressures in the future.

There were relatively few out-migrants who worked as

100% fish processors (0.6 per cent) or fishers (0.2 per cent) or in 11.1% occupations associated with the primary industries (3.5 per 16.8% 17.5% cent).

80%

25.4% 34.7% University Degree

38.8% 60% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 15.9% Incomplete Post- Distribution of Interprovincial Out-Migrants by 16.0% Secondary Occupation, NL, 1996 to 2001 40% High School Diploma 13.9%

Figure 25 All other occupations 14.7% 18.1% 13.6% Less Than High School Other - Sales and service 13.2%

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula 11.4% 20% Secretaries and administrative and clerical 12.2% Other - Processing and manufacturing 8.1% 23.8% 24.7% 18.4% Equipment operators and labourers 8.0% Other - Trades, transport and equipment operators 0% 5.7% and related 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 Retail salespersons, clerks, and cashiers 5.5%

Other - Management 4.6%

Food and beverage workers 4.4% Data Source(s): 1991-2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Data Presentation/ Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Other - Health 3.9%

Other - Primary 3.3% See Endnote 47 Construction trades 3.2%

Childcare and home support workers 2.5% Figure 26 Occupations of Out-Migrants Elementary and high school teachers 2.3% Managers in retail trade, food, and accomodation 2.3% services The occupations out-migrants work in after leaving the province Other - Business, finance and administration 2.2% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour also hold significant implications for the labour supply. Other - Education 1.6%

Nurses 1.5%

As shown in Figure 26, between 1996 and 2001 the top Fish processing workers 0.6%

occupations out-migrants worked in after leaving the province Fishers 0.2% included other sales and service occupations (e.g., supervisors, insurance agents, police, hotel clerks); secretaries and clerical 0% 10% 20% occupations; other (non-fishery related) processing and Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Data Presentation/ manufacturing occupations; equipment operators and labourers; Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. 48 and other trade, transport and equipment operators. See Endnote 49

42 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.5 Immigration

Immigration is an important source of population growth. In fact, as the impact of demographic change follows through, it is forecast that by the year 2030, 100 per cent of Canada’s Immigrant Population as a Proportion of Total population growth will be attributed to immigration. Population, 2001

REGION Immigrants and newcomers to the province can have a positive Grand Falls-Windsor CA 1.0% Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

impact on the overall economy by stimulating business and Labrador City CA 1.7% employment growth and helping to address skills shortages, especially in more highly skilled, specialized occupations. Gander CA 1.7% Corner Brook CA 1.8% • Less than 0.2 per cent of new immigrants to Canada come St. John's CMA 2.9% to this province and only 36 per cent of immigrants actually Agg. Non-CMA/CA 0.8% stay. Agg. CMA/CA 2.5% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour 0.6% As a result of these trends, the immigrant population in Breton Newfoundland and Labrador is relatively small, as shown in Burin Peninsula 0.7% Figure 27. St. Anthony - Port au Choix 0.7%

Clarenville - Bonavista 0.8% Figure 27 • In 2001, immigrants accounted for only 1.6 per cent of the Stephenville - Port aux Basques 0.8% provincial population compared to 18.4 per cent at the national level. In the Avalon Peninsula region, immigrants Gander - New-Wes-Valley 1.0% Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 1.4%

accounted for only 2.3 per cent of the population. PeninsulaAvalon Region Labrador 1.5% Furthermore, the majority of newcomers to the province tend to settle in the St. John’s CMA area, the most urban area of the Newfoundland and Labrador 1.6% province. This trend is similar to settlement patterns among Avalon Peninsula 2.3% newcomers throughout the rest of the country who tend to settle Canada 18.4% in larger centres such as Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. 0% 10% 20%

• In 2001, 60.8 per cent of all immigrants in the province lived Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Data Presentation/ in the St. John’s CMA; 67.5 per cent of immigrants lived in the Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Avalon Peninsula region. See Endnote 50

43 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.6 aging Workforce Population pyramids for the region (Figures 28, 29 and 30) show dramatic changes in the age distribution of the regional population. Similar patterns are observed in most other regions The workforce in Newfoundland and Labrador is aging as a and the St. John’s CMA (see figures in Appendix C). These result of population decline and continued out-migration. trends will lead to a significant increase in the number of older workers in the region and the province over time. This trend will exert significant pressures in the labour market, including potential skills shortages as more workers leave the labour market for retirement and increased demands for more responsive workplaces to accommodate the needs of older workers in general.

Population Pyramid, Avalon Peninsula Region, Population Pyramid, Avalon Peninsula Region, 1991 2006 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

Age 1991 Females 1991 Males Age 2006 Females 2006 Males 90 + 90 +

80 - 84 80 - 84

70 - 74 70 - 74

60 - 64 60 - 64

50 - 54 50 - 54

40 - 44 40 - 44

30 - 34 30 - 34

Figure 28 20 - 24 Figure 29 20 - 24

10 - 14 10 - 14

0 - 4 0 - 4 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 Population Population

See Endnote 51 See Endnote 52

44 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

In 1991, baby boomers (25-44 years) represented a large As the baby boomer “wave” continues to move through the proportion of the population, however, there was also a population, the proportion of older workers will increase relatively large youth population at that time.53 Over the past 15 dramatically, largely due to the lack of young people in the years, population changes have resulted in a significant decrease generation behind the baby boomers that are available to enter in the youth population and, in 2006, baby boomers formed the the labour market. largest share of the population (this group is now 40 to 59 years). Figure 31 reflects this trend. Between 1990 and 2000, the most significant increase was in the proportion of workers aged 45 to

54 years old while notable declines were observed among the Labour Market Indicators and Trends: proportion of younger workers (15-34 years).

Population Pyramid, Avalon Peninsula Region, Distribution of Those Who Worked by Age Groups, 2021 Avalon Peninsula Region, 1990 and 2000

Age 2021 Females 2021 Males 40% 1990 2000 90 +

80 - 84 29.5% 70 - 74 30% 26.7% PeninsulaAvalon Region 25.9% 60 - 64 22.4% 22.8% 21.6% 50 - 54 20% 17.9% 40 - 44 15.4% 30 - 34 Figure 30 Figure 31

20 - 24 10% 8.9% 6.5% 10 - 14

0 - 4 1.0% 1.3% -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0% Population 15 to 24 Yrs 25 to 34 Yrs 35 to 44 Yrs 45 to 54 Yrs 55 to 64 Yrs 65+ Years

Data Source(s): 1991 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Division, Department of Finance. Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 54 See Endnote 55

45 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.7 Education and the Labour Supply Adult Literacy and Skills Survey (IALSS) showed almost no improvement in Canadian adult literacy rates in the decade between 1994 and 2003 and results for Newfoundland and An educated labour force that includes workers with a broad Labrador were among the lowest in the country. range of skills and competencies is essential to help ensure the continued competitiveness of employers in a global, knowledge- based economy and improved labour market outcomes for Education levels within the Avalon Peninsula region exceed individuals. all other regions and the province. Figure 32 illustrates that in 2001, the proportion of the prime working age population (25- 54 years) with less than a high school education in the Avalon Post-secondary education is becoming the new labour market Peninsula region (22.9 per cent) was significantly lower than the standard for success. The labour market is also demanding province (30.8 per cent) and more comparable to Canada as a employees with a variety of other skills and abilities including whole (19.5 per cent). team building, communication, and problem-solving skills. However, employers in this province are challenged to find the skilled workers they need. They report gaps in basic reading, Proportion of Population (25-54 Years) With Less writing and numeracy skills, as well as other technical skills Than High School, 2001 among their employees. They are also reporting difficulties in attracting and retaining workers in more highly skilled Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula occupations.56

To keep pace with ever-changing market demands for skilled REGION labour and changing technologies, it will be increasingly St. John's CMA 18.2% important to ensure the current labour force, and future entrants, Canada 19.5% are equipped with a strong set of foundation skills that allows Avalon Peninsula 22.9% them to adapt quickly and learn new skills throughout their Labrador 26.7% lifetime. A strong focus on the capabilities, skills, knowledge and Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 30.7% experiences of the labour force is critical, as is a focus on helping Newfoundland and Labrador 30.8% to ensure workers continuously upgrade their skills. Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) 36.5% Levels of educational attainment in the population have been Clarenville - Bonavista 38.6% rising, both at the provincial and regional level. However, Figure 32 Burin Peninsula 39.8% for many regions critical gaps still remain. The most notable Gander - New-Wes-Valley 39.9% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour 40.9% increases in educational attainment are among youth and Breton

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour younger workers (i.e., 18-24 years). Increases in the number of St. Anthony - Port au Choix 43.1% people with higher education levels among the prime working Stephenville - Port aux Basques 43.5% age group of 25 to 54 year olds have not kept pace, especially in more rural areas of the province. 0% 20% 40% 60%

There are also significant concerns regarding essential skills Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and among the workforce. The recently released 2003 International Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 57

46 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

It is interesting to note that the proportion of the working As shown in Figure 34, in 2001, the Avalon Peninsula region age population (25-54 years) with a post-secondary diploma had the highest proportion of its working age population with a or certificate in the region (42.3 per cent) and throughout the university degree (18 per cent) compared to all the other regions province (40.0 per cent) was higher than the proportion recorded and the province as a whole (12.8 per cent). Within the St. at the national level (34.8 per cent). John’s CMA, 21.7 per cent of the working age population had a university degree, higher than for Canada (20.9 per cent). Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

Proportion of Population (25-54 Years) With a Proportion of Population (25-54 Years) With a Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma, 2001 University Degree, 2001

REGION REGION Canada 34.8% St. Anthony - Port au Choix 6.5% St. Anthony - Port au Choix 34.8% Burin Peninsula 6.9% Clarenville - Bonavista 35.0% Gander - New-Wes-Valley 7.3% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour 35.2% Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) 7.4% PeninsulaAvalon Region Breton Gander - New-Wes-Valley 35.3% Stephenville - Port aux Basques 7.9% Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Stephenville - Port aux Basques 35.4% 8.1% Breton Newfoundland and Labrador 40.0% Clarenville - Bonavista 8.1% Avalon Peninsula (Outside St. John's CMA) 40.4% Labrador 8.9%

Figure 33 Burin Peninsula 41.3% Figure 34 Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 11.3% Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 42.0% Newfoundland and Labrador 12.8%

Avalon Peninsula 42.3% Avalon Peninsula 18.0% St. John's CMA 42.9% Canada 20.9%

Labrador 46.0% St. John's CMA 21.7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

47 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

As shown in Figure 35, education levels among the prime Table 6: Distribution of Population (25-54 Years) by Highest Level of working age population in the region have been increasing, and Schooling, NL, Avalon Peninsula Region and Local Areas, 2001 while gaps still exist between many regions and the province, education levels in the Avalon Peninsula region exceed the Post- provincial levels. Despite this positive result, some gaps still Highest Level of Less Than High School Some Post- Secondary University Schooling High School Diploma Secondary Certificate Degree remain when compared to Canada as a whole. or Diploma

Distribution of Population (25-54 Years) by Highest Level of Newfoundland and Schooling, Avalon Peninsula Region, 1991 and 2001 Labrador 30.8% 9.3% 7.1% 40.0% 12.8%

Avalon Peninsula Region 22.9% 8.4% 8.4% 42.3% 18.0%

Placentia - St. Bride’s Area 34.1% 7.2% 8.0% 45.9% 3.9% 1991 2001 50% Heart’s Delight Area 42.6% 11.0% 4.6% 36.7% 4.8%

42.3% New Perlican - Winterton 40% Area 40.8% 16.2% 5.2% 35.1% 1.6% 36.3% North Shore of Conception Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula 30.2% Bay 43.9% 11.3% 6.2% 34.6% 4.5% 30%

22.9% Carbonear Area 32.3% 9.6% 5.4% 43.6% 9.0%

20% 18.0% Harbour Grace Area 34.3% 9.8% 5.3% 42.1% 8.7% 13.9%

Figure 35 10.8% Spaniard’s Bay Area 31.3% 10.0% 6.9% 43.6% 7.7% 8.8% 10% 8.4% 8.4% Bay Roberts Area 37.8% 9.5% 5.2% 33.1% 14.4%

Clarke’s Beach Area 37.9% 11.8% 5.7% 34.4% 10.1% 0% Less Than High High School Some Post- Post-Secondary University School Diploma Secondary Certificate or Degree Head of Conception Bay 29.7% 6.8% 6.6% 49.0% 8.1% Diploma Bell Island 43.8% 5.4% 8.9% 36.4% 4.7%

Southern Shore 35.4% 11.7% 6.6% 40.2% 6.0%

Data Source(s): 1991 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland Trepassey Bay 38.7% 9.9% 5.4% 38.7% 7.2% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. St. Mary’s Bay 42.6% 6.4% 5.7% 39.7% 5.7%

Whitbourne Area 32.8% 7.7% 3.8% 49.7% 6.0% Education levels vary among local areas within the region. Northeast Avalon Levels among the population (25-54 years) in the Northeast (including St. John’s) 18.3% 8.0% 9.2% 42.9% 21.7% Avalon Area were generally higher than the region in 2001. Smaller areas, such as Bell Island or the North Shore Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics of Conception Bay, generally reported lower education Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. levels.(Table 6)58 See Endnote 59 48 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.8 future Labour Supply

The trends described in previous sections of this report point to significant labour supply pressures in the future, including potential labour shortages.

Figure 36 (see Appendix C for the figure containing CMA data) Ratio of Younger Workers (15-24 Years) for Every Potential shows changing population trends among younger individuals

Retiree (55-64 Years), Avalon Peninsula Region, 1991 to 2021 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: (15-24 years), a primary source for new labour market entrants, and older individuals (55-64 years) who are within the average retirement age.

15-24 Years 55-64 Years These trends show that during the early 1990s there were approximately two new potential labour market entrants for 45,000 every potential retiree. This ratio has rapidly decreased and when looking at projected changes in the region’s population over the next 15 years, there will be a complete reversal in the

ratio of potential new entrants to potential retirees. It is projected 30,000 that there will only be one new labour market entrant for every two potential retirees by 2021.

These trends are evident throughout most other regions of the province, except in Labrador where population growth among Figure 36 15,000 Aboriginal populations is slowing overall population decline PeninsulaAvalon Region for the region. While these projections do not reflect the actual demand for, or availability of labour in the future, they do give a clear indication that there will be significant labour supply 0 pressures, especially related to the replacement of positions as 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 people retire from the labour market.

Furthermore, these population projections are based upon assumptions about the future environment at a specific point Data Source(s): Demography Division, Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis in time. A significant change in the migration assumptions Division, Department of Finance. could alter the projections. For example, as labour demands See Endnote 60 grow in other jurisdictions and regions, competitive pressures could dramatically increase and prompt further decreases in the available labour supply. Or, if new, unanticipated project developments arise, there could be significant increases in the demand for new workers, outside of those needed to replace retirees.

49 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

3.9 Those Not in the Labour Force and Under- Not in the Labour Force Represented Groups People who choose not to work or who are not able to work are not counted as being in the labour force. These may include As labour supply pressures increase, it will be essential to retirees, students and discouraged workers who have stopped maximize all available workers in the labour market to help looking for work in the belief that no jobs are available. meet future labour demands. However, a significant proportion of the working population do not participate in the labour According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), in 2005, 41 per market and many other groups are under-represented, or they cent (or 177,200 people) of the working age population (15+ do not participate to their full potential. years) in the province were not in the labour force. Within this population: Oftentimes these groups face barriers that prevent them from fully participating, especially among Employment Insurance and • 43 per cent were men and 57 per cent were women; Income Support recipients, women, persons with disabilities, newcomers to the province, Aboriginal populations, youth and • 20 per cent were aged 55 to 64 years (A large share of this older workers. population was likely retired); • 18 per cent were between the ages of 15 and 24. However, Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Strategies to help address these barriers will be required to many of these younger people would likely have been help ensure these individuals have opportunity to benefit from students; emerging opportunities and that employers have access to the supply of workers they need. • 27 per cent (or 48,200 people) were between the ages of 25 and 54, the prime working age population; and The remainder of this section provides a brief overview of • 51 per cent had less than a high school education; 23 per those not in the labour force and these under-represented or cent had completed high school or some post-secondary marginalized groups. education; 21 per cent had a post-secondary certificate or diploma; and only 5 per cent had a university degree. In 2005, almost 38 per cent (79,500 people) of the working age population in the Labour Force Survey’s Avalon Peninsula region were not in the labour force compared to 41 per cent for the province overall.61 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

50 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Employment Insurance Beneficiaries The incidence of E.I. recipients in the province is strongly influenced by the highly seasonal economy. This is clearly As shown in Figure 37, in 2005 the distribution of Employment evident in Figure 38 which shows the proportion of E.I. Insurance (E.I.) recipients throughout the province generally recipients within each region. The proportion of E.I. recipients reflects the overall distribution of the total population. within the Avalon Peninsula region in 2005 was only 13.5 per cent, the lowest in the province. The highest proportion of E.I. recipients is found in the Avalon Peninsula (33 per cent) where the largest share of the provincial This is consistent with trends in full-year and part-year work;

population resides. there are more full-year workers in the Avalon Peninsula, Labour Market Indicators and Trends: and the St. John’s CMA in particular, relative to the rest of the province.

Distribution of Employment Insurance Proportion of Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Region, 2005 Beneficiaries in Population, Regions, 2005

REGION REGION Labrador 4.9% Avalon Peninsula 13.5%

St. Anthony - Port au Choix 5.3% Labrador 18.4%

Burin Peninsula 6.4% Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 20.3% PeninsulaAvalon Region

Stephenville - Port aux Basques 7.5% Stephenville - Port aux Basques 24.0%

Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Clarenville - Bonavista 8.1% 25.1% Breton

Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 9.2% Gander - New-Wes-Valley 26.4% Figure 37 Figure 38 Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - 12.5% Clarenville - Bonavista 28.1% Harbour Breton

Gander - New-Wes-Valley 12.5% Burin Peninsula 29.1%

Avalon Peninsula 33.1% St. Anthony - Port au Choix 38.1%

0% 20% 40% 0% 20% 40%

Data Source(s): Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Human Data Source(s): Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, and Economic Research and Resources and Skills Development Canada. Analysis Division, Department of Finance; Human Resources and Skills Development Canada.

51 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

As shown in Figure 39, the number of people receiving Consistent with the distribution of the population among local Employment Insurance in the region has fallen since the early areas in the region, Figure 40 shows that the largest proportion 1990s, to stand at around 33,315 in 2005. This trend is consistent of E.I. recipients were in the Northeast Avalon Area which throughout the province. While the average benefits (adjusted includes St. John’s and the largest communities in the region. for inflation) paid to E.I. recipients declined in the early 1990s, they have levelled off and have remained relatively constant since about 1996.

Employment Insurance Beneficiaries and Average Real Distribution of Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Benefits, Avalon Peninsula Region, 1992 to 2005 Within Avalon Peninsula Region, 2005 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

Total Beneficiaries Trepassey Bay 1.1% Average Real Annual Benefits Paid (1992$) Bell Island 1.2% 60,000 $7,000 Whitbourne Area 1.5% Spaniard's Bay Area 1.9% $6,000 50,000 New Perlican - Winterton Area 2.1% St. Mary's Bay 3.2% $5,000 Bay Roberts Area 3.5% 40,000 Heart's Delight Area 3.8% $4,000 Southern Shore 4.0% 30,000 Harbour Grace Area 4.2% $3,000 Clarke's Beach Area 4.2% Figure 39 Figure 40 20,000 Head of Conception Bay 4.6% $2,000 North Shore of Conception Bay 4.6%

10,000 Carbonear Area 4.9%

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour $1,000 Placentia - St. Bride's Area 4.9% Northeast Avalon (including St. John's) 50.3% - $0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 0% 20% 40% 60%

Data Source(s): Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Human Resources and Skills Development Canada. Data Source(s): Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Human Resources and Skills Development Canada; Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada. See Endnote 62

52 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Income Support Recipients For the most part, in 2005, the incidence of people receiving Income Support within all the regions was fairly consistent. As shown in Figure 41, the distribution of people receiving (Figure 42) There was a slightly lower incidence of Income Income Support throughout all regions in the province generally Support recipients within the St. Anthony-Port au Choix region reflects the overall distribution of the population. The highest and a slightly higher incidence in the Stephenville-Port aux proportion of Income Support recipients is found in the Avalon Basques region. However, the number of Income Support Peninsula region (45.8 per cent). recipients has declined in all regions of the province since the mid-1990s. Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

Distribution of Income Support Recipients by Proportion of Income Support Recipients in Region, 2005 Population, Regions, 2005

REGION REGION St. Anthony - Port au Choix 1.5% St. Anthony - Port au Choix 6.5%

Labrador 4.0% Labrador 8.9%

Burin Peninsula 4.6% Gander - New-Wes-Valley 10.7% PeninsulaAvalon Region

Clarenville - Bonavista 5.4% Avalon Peninsula 11.2%

Gander - New-Wes-Valley 8.5% Clarenville - Bonavista 11.3%

Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 8.7% Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 11.5% Figure 41 Figure 42 Stephenville - Port aux Basques 10.6% Burin Peninsula 12.5%

Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour 10.8% 12.9% Breton Breton

Avalon Peninsula 45.8% Stephenville - Port aux Basques 20.1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Data Source(s): Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment; Newfoundland Data Source(s): Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, and Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of and Labrador Statistics Agency, and Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance. Finance.

53 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Figure 43 shows the decline in the number of Income Support recipients in the Avalon Peninsula region.

Within the region, the largest proportion of Income Support recipients was located in the Northeast Avalon area which includes St. John’s and the largest communities in the region. (Figure 44)

Income Support Recipients, Avalon Peninsula Region, Distribution of Income Support Recipients 1991 to 2005 Within Avalon Peninsula Region, 2004 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

45,000 Trepassey Bay 0.4%

36,800 New Perlican - Winterton Area 0.7% 40,000 St. Mary's Bay 0.9% Southern Shore 0.9% 35,000 Whitbourne Area 0.9%

30,000 27,550 North Shore of Conception Bay 1.2% Spaniard's Bay Area 1.6% 25,000 Heart's Delight Area 1.8% Clarke's Beach Area 2.7% 20,000 Harbour Grace Area 2.8% Placentia - St. Bride's Area 2.8% Figure 43 15,000 Figure 44 Head of Conception Bay 2.8% 10,000 Bay Roberts Area 3.0% Bell Island 4.1% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour 5,000 Carbonear Area 4.1% Northeast Avalon (including St. John's) 69.1% - 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 0% 40% 80%

Data Source(s): Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment; Newfoundland Data Source(s): Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance. and Labrador Statistics Agency, and Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance. See Endnote 63

54 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Labour Market Indicators for Women Table 7: Selected Indicators by Gender, 2001 As discussed in an earlier section of this report, participation, employment and income levels among women have been Population in Avalon Population in improving. Peninsula Region Province Labour Market Indicator Females Males Females Males However, women still lag men on a number of labour market Total Population 121,425 113,700 258,995 249,080 indicators. These gaps are less evident in the region where Labour Force Status (Pop. 15+)

labour market indicators for women tend to be higher than for Employed 49,050 50,440 91,320 97,500 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: women in the province overall. Participation rate (%) 56.1% 65.8% 52.3% 63.2% Employment rate (%) 48.5% 54.5% 42.4% 47.9% Table 7 shows that in 2000 the average employment income for Unemployment rate (%) 13.6% 17.3% 19.1% 24.2% women in the province was 37 per cent lower than the income Average employment income $ (2000) 21,332 31,979 18,341 29,267 of men whereas in the Avalon Peninsula region, the average Distribution of Workers by Occupation employment income for women was 33 per cent lower than the (2001) 56,780 60,955 112,855 128,640 income of men. Management occupations 6.5% 11.1% 6.4% 9.2% Business, finance & administration Employment rates and participation rates were also lower for occupations 26.3% 8.7% 21.4% 6.5% women compared to men for both the province and the region. Natural & applied sciences & related occupations 2.6% 9.7% 1.9% 7.6% In 2001, over 70 per cent of women in the province were Health occupations 10.9% 3.0% 9.5% 2.3% working in one of teaching, health, office and related or sales Social science, education, government and service occupations; 75 per cent of women in the Avalon service & religion 10.4% 6.4% 9.6% 5.5% 64 Peninsula region worked in these occupations. Occupations in art, culture, recreation & PeninsulaAvalon Region sport 3.1% 2.3% 2.4% 1.5% The most significant occupational differences between men and Sales & service occupations 30.8% 18.8% 34.3% 16.0% women were observed in the trades, transport and equipment Trades, transport & equipment operators & operators and related occupations; women accounted for related 1.2% 25.8% 1.8% 29.4% only 1.8 per cent and 1.2 per cent of the labour force in these Occupations unique to primary industry 1.2% 6.3% 2.9% 11.6% occupations at the provincial and regional level compared to Occupations unique to processing, 29.4 per cent and 25.8 per cent of men. manufacturing & utilities 3.3% 4.8% 5.5% 6.9% Occupation - Not applicable 3.6% 3.1% 4.4% 3.3% Highest Level of Education (Pop. 15+) Less Than High School 34.4% 34.3% 42.6% 42.1% High School Diploma 8.9% 9.6% 9.8% 9.0% Some Post-Secondary 11.1% 11.2% 9.4% 9.0% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 31.9% 31.5% 28.7% 30.4% University Degree 13.7% 13.5% 9.6% 9.5%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census Profiles, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 65

55 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Labour Market Indicators for Persons With Disabilities Table 8: Selected Indicators for Persons With Disabilities, 2001 In 2001, the proportion of persons with disabilities in the Population in Avalon Population in Peninsula Region Province population ranged from 8 to 14 per cent throughout all regions of the province. Persons with Total Persons with Total Labour Market Indicator Disabilities Population Disabilities Population Participation and employment rates for this population are Total Population 28,075 235,125 61,940 508,075 significantly lower than the total population, in both the region Labour Force Status (Pop. 15+) and the province. These outcomes most likely reflect multiple Employed 5,570 99,490 10,520 188,820 barriers encountered by persons with disabilities in the labour Participation rate (%) 25.9% 60.8% 23.9% 57.6% market. Employment rate (%) 20.9% 51.4% 17.9% 45.1% Unemployment rate (%) 19.5% 15.5% 25.2% 21.8% Table 8 indicates that in 2001, persons with disabilities were Average employment income $ (2000) 22,115 26,866 20,672 24,165 more likely to work in sales and service occupations. Distribution of Workers by Occupation (2001) 6,910 117,730 14,050 241,500 Furthermore, education levels among this group were Management occupations 7.0% 8.9% 7.1% 7.9% significantly lower than the total population, both within the Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Business, finance & administration province and the region. occupations 17.6% 17.2% 13.7% 13.5% Natural & applied sciences & related occupations 3.9% 6.3% 3.3% 4.9% Health occupations 6.7% 6.8% 6.0% 5.7%

Social science, education, government service & religion 7.4% 8.3% 6.3% 7.4% Occupations in art, culture, recreation & sport 3.9% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9%

Sales & service occupations 26.7% 24.6% 26.6% 24.6% Trades, transport & equipment operators & related 12.6% 13.9% 15.8% 16.5% Occupations unique to primary industry 2.6% 3.9% 6.0% 7.5% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing & utilities 3.9% 4.1% 5.4% 6.3% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Occupation - Not applicable 6.9% 3.4% 7.6% 3.8% Highest Level of Education (Pop. 15+) Less Than High School 52.2% 34.3% 59.7% 42.4% High School Diploma 8.2% 9.2% 7.8% 9.4% Some Post-Secondary 7.2% 11.1% 5.9% 9.2% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 25.0% 31.7% 22.0% 29.5% University Degree 7.4% 13.6% 4.7% 9.5%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census Profiles, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 66 56 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Labour Market Indicators for Immigrants Table 9: Selected Indicators for Immigrants, 2001

Immigrants represent only a small proportion of the population Population in Avalon in the province and the region. However, demographic and Peninsula Region Population in Province labour market characteristics among the immigrant population Immigrants Total Immigrants Total in Newfoundland and Labrador differ significantly from the Labour Market Indicator Population Population general population. Total Population 5,420 235,125 8,030 508,075 15-24 Years 6.9% 15.2% 5.6% 14.4%

For example, immigrants in the province tend to be older. In 55-64 Years 21.1% 9.8% 20.5% 10.4% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: 2001 there were relatively fewer 15 to 24 year olds and more 55 Labour Force Status (Pop. 15+) to 64 year olds among the immigrant population than in the total Employed 2,825 99,490 4,185 188,820 population, at both the regional and provincial levels. Participation rate (%) 61.1% 60.8% 60.4% 57.6% Employment rate (%) 55.4% 51.4% 55.1% 45.1% Employment rates and income levels were also significantly Unemployment rate (%) 9.0% 15.5% 8.9% 21.8% higher among immigrants while unemployment rates tended to be lower. These outcomes were about the same at the provincial Average employment income $ (2000) 47,874 26,866 47,224 24,165 and regional level. Distribution of Workers by Occupation (2001) 3,110 117,730 4,595 241,500 Overall, within the province, there was a much higher Management occupations 13.3% 8.9% 13.2% 7.9% concentration of immigrants in social sciences and education; Business, finance & administration occupations 9.8% 17.2% 9.0% 13.5% health; management; natural and applied sciences and related Natural & applied sciences & related occupations, and significantly fewer immigrants in trades; sales occupations 12.9% 6.3% 12.3% 4.9% and service; primary occupations; and occupations related to processing and manufacturing. Health occupations 11.9% 6.8% 15.4% 5.7% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Social science, education, government service & religion 23.5% 8.3% 20.0% 7.4% Education levels among the immigrant population in the region Occupations in art, culture, recreation & and the province were also significantly higher than the total sport 7.1% 2.7% 5.1% 1.9% population. Sales & service occupations 9.0% 24.6% 11.4% 24.6% Trades, transport & equipment operators & Despite these outcomes, immigrants continue to face barriers to related 6.3% 13.9% 7.5% 16.5% employment which may influence their decisions to leave the Occupations unique to primary industry 1.8% 3.9% 1.9% 7.5% province and seek work opportunities elsewhere. Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing & utilities 1.3% 4.1% 1.6% 6.3% Occupation - Not applicable 2.9% 3.4% 2.6% 3.8% Highest Level of Education (Pop. 15+) Less Than High School 14.6% 34.3% 16.8% 42.4% High School Diploma 6.5% 9.2% 7.2% 9.4% Some Post-Secondary 7.1% 11.1% 8.1% 9.2% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 26.5% 31.7% 28.8% 29.5% University Degree 44.2% 13.6% 39.1% 9.5%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census Profiles, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 67 57 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Table 10: Selected Indicators for Aboriginal Populations, Labour Market Indicators for Aboriginal Populations 2001 According to the Census, in 2001 there were 18,775 Aboriginal Population in Avalon Peninsula Region Population in Province persons in the province representing 3.7 per cent of the population. Aboriginal Total Aboriginal Total Labour Market Indicator Population Population Population Population Total Population 1,485 235,125 18,775 508,075 The Aboriginal population was distributed throughout many regions of the province; however, the largest concentration was 15-24 Years 24.7% 15.2% 19.2% 14.4% identified in Labrador where over 50 per cent of the Aboriginal 55-64 Years 5.9% 9.8% 5.6% 10.4% population resided. The Avalon Peninsula region accounted Labour Force Status (Pop. 15+) for only 7.9 per cent of the total Aboriginal population in the Employed 680 99,490 5,515 188,820 province in 2001. Participation rate (%) 70.0% 60.8% 60.4% 57.6% Employment rate (%) 58.4% 51.4% 40.2% 45.1% Higher fertility rates and a younger age profile among Unemployment rate (%) 16.0% 15.5% 33.5% 21.8% Aboriginal populations indicate that this group will be an Average employment income $ (2000) 22,476 26,866 17,053 24,165 important source to meet labour demands in the future. Distribution of Workers by Occupation Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula (2001) 820 117,730 8,285 241,500 However, levels of educational attainment among the Aboriginal Management occupations 3.0% 8.9% 5.2% 7.9% population are lower than for the province as a whole, a factor Business, finance & administration that may limit the ability of individuals in this population to occupations 18.3% 17.2% 11.7% 13.5% take full advantage of labour market opportunities. Natural & applied sciences & related occupations 6.1% 6.3% 4.6% 4.9% Several labour market outcomes reflect the impact of these and Health occupations 6.1% 6.8% 3.5% 5.7% other barriers. For example, provincial employment rates and Social science, education, government average employment income among the Aboriginal population service & religion 6.7% 8.3% 8.3% 7.4% tend to be lower than the total population. Occupations in art, culture, recreation & sport 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% At the provincial level, the distribution of Aboriginal people in Sales & service occupations 26.2% 24.6% 25.8% 24.6% various occupations is fairly consistent with the total population. Trades, transport & equipment operators & related 18.3% 13.9% 17.9% 16.5% Occupations unique to primary industry 6.7% 3.9% 9.9% 7.5% Note that for all indicators, the small number of Aboriginal people reported for the region limits the reliability of the data. Occupations unique to processing, Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour manufacturing & utilities 2.4% 4.1% 6.1% 6.3% Therefore, caution should be used in interpreting these results. Occupation - Not applicable 2.4% 3.4% 5.1% 3.8% Highest Level of Education (Pop. 15+) Less Than High School 32.1% 34.3% 43.6% 42.4% High School Diploma 7.1% 9.2% 8.6% 9.4% Some Post-Secondary 15.8% 11.1% 10.5% 9.2% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 29.6% 31.7% 33.3% 29.5% University Degree 12.5% 13.6% 4.1% 9.5%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census Profiles, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 68 58 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Labour Market Indicators for Youth Table 11: Selected Indicators for Youth (18-29 Years), 2001 According to the 2001 Census, participation and employment rates for youth (18-29 years) were higher compared to the total Population in Avalon Peninsula Region Population in Province population in the province. However, this largely reflects the Youth (18- Total Youth (18- Total timing of the Census in the month of May when many students 29 Years) Population 29 Years) Population enter the labour market for summer jobs. Labour Market Indicator Total Population 40,525 235,125 79,830 508,075 Labour Force Status (Pop. 15+) Employment income levels were much lower for this age group Labour Market Indicators and Trends: than for the total population, in both the region and the province Employed 23,510 99,490 39,820 188,820 as a whole. Participation rate (%) 74.5% 60.8% 70.5% 57.6% Employment rate (%) 58.0% 51.4% 49.9% 45.1% In 2001, there was a significantly higher proportion of youth in Unemployment rate (%) 22.1% 15.5% 29.2% 21.8% sales and service occupations than in the total population and Average employment income $ (2000) 13,328 26,866 12,414 24,165 fewer in management occupations. Distribution of Workers by Occupation (2001) 30,200 117,730 56,250 241,500 Given the projected decline in the number of youth available to Management occupations 3.8% 8.9% 3.6% 7.9% enter the labour market, the sales and service occupations are Business, finance & administration likely to experience significant labour supply challenges in the occupations 13.6% 17.2% 11.2% 13.5% future. Natural & applied sciences & related occupations 6.7% 6.3% 5.4% 4.9% Education levels among youth were also significantly higher Health occupations 5.0% 6.8% 4.2% 5.7% than the total population, at the regional and provincial level. Social science, education, government

Furthermore, compared to the youth education levels for the service & religion 6.6% 8.3% 6.0% 7.4% PeninsulaAvalon Region province, education levels among this population in the region Occupations in art, culture, recreation & were relatively higher. sport 3.8% 2.7% 3.0% 1.9% Sales & service occupations 37.8% 24.6% 35.5% 24.6% Trades, transport & equipment operators & related 10.7% 13.9% 13.5% 16.5% Occupations unique to primary industry 3.8% 3.9% 6.8% 7.5% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing & utilities 3.9% 4.1% 5.3% 6.3% Occupation - Not applicable 4.3% 3.4% 5.4% 3.8% Highest Level of Education Less Than High School 17.7% 34.3% 22.3% 42.4% High School Diploma 10.4% 9.2% 12.1% 9.4% Some Post-Secondary 29.2% 11.1% 26.2% 9.2% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 27.5% 31.7% 28.2% 29.5% University Degree 15.2% 13.6% 11.2% 9.5%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census Profiles, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 69

59 Indicators and Trends in the Labour Supply

Table 12: Selected Indicators for Older Workers (45+ Years), Labour Market Indicators for Older Workers 2001 In 2001, participation and employment rates for older persons Population in Avalon Peninsula Region Population in Province (45+ years) were lower compared to the total population. However, the unemployment rate for older persons was slightly Older Workers Total Older Workers Total lower as well. (45+ Years) Population (45+ Years) Population Labour Market Indicator Total Population 85,885 235,125 194,330 508,075 This reflects, in part, the large proportion of older persons Labour Force Status (Pop. 15+) who have left the labour market for retirement and no longer Employed 33,910 99,490 68,360 188,820 participate. Participation rate (%) 45.4% 60.8% 43.3% 57.6% Employment rate (%) 39.5% 51.4% 35.2% 45.1% Older workers also had higher average employment incomes, in Unemployment rate (%) 13.0% 15.5% 18.7% 21.8% both the province and the region. Average employment income $ (2000) 33,743 26,866 29,785 24,165 Generally, the occupational distribution among older workers Distribution of Workers by Occupation (2001) 38,980 117,730 84,075 241,500 is similar to the total population; however there appears to be Management occupations 11.5% 8.9% 10.3% 7.9% slightly fewer older workers in sales and service occupations Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula and slightly more in management occupations. Business, finance & administration occupations 18.6% 17.2% 14.2% 13.5% Natural & applied sciences & related Education levels among older workers were lower than the total occupations 5.2% 6.3% 4.2% 4.9% population. However, education levels among this group in the Health occupations 6.9% 6.8% 5.7% 5.7% Avalon Peninsula region were higher than for older workers in all other regions and the province as a whole. Social science, education, government service & religion 9.4% 8.3% 8.0% 7.4% Occupations in art, culture, recreation & sport 2.2% 2.7% 1.6% 1.9%

Sales & service occupations 19.4% 24.6% 20.3% 24.6% Trades, transport & equipment operators & related 15.8% 13.9% 18.7% 16.5% Occupations unique to primary industry 4.4% 3.9% 7.7% 7.5% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing & utilities 4.1% 4.1% 6.7% 6.3% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Occupation - Not applicable 2.6% 3.4% 2.8% 3.8% Highest Level of Education Less Than High School 44.3% 34.3% 53.6% 42.4% High School Diploma 9.6% 9.2% 8.5% 9.4% Some Post-Secondary 5.8% 11.1% 4.6% 9.2% Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma 28.3% 31.7% 25.2% 29.5% University Degree 12.0% 13.6% 8.1% 9.5%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census Profiles, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 70 60 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand d an em D r n Labou i s d n tre d s an r o t a dic

Public and Private Sector Employment Unionized Employees Industry Employment Occupational Employment Demand for Education Firm Size

the number of workers required, or changed the way work is carried out, to produce goods. At the same time, skills or changed the way work is carried out, to produce goods. At the the number of workers required, ensure that workers can use the technology. demands have increased to help to help them better to understand the nature of these changing labour demands Individuals and organizations need an overview of key opportunities and challenges. This section of the report includes identify and respond to emerging trends and indicators for: and financial mobility. As a result, the demand for low-skilled labour is declining in many advanced economies; the the demand for low-skilled labour is declining in many advanced and financial mobility. As a result, virtually anywhere firms can now access an inexpensive, lower-skilled labour supply reduction of trade barriers mean mobile and highly-skilled all areas of the world are competing for a limited pool of in the world. In contrast, firms from workers. has lowered changed labour demand. For example, in some cases, technology Advancing technologies have also the preceding section, employers are also facing significant challenges as a result of changing demographics and a of changing demographics and significant challenges as a result employers are also facing the preceding section, competition for labour increases. likely escalate in the future as the of workers, challenges that will declining supply workers with creativity, critical demand. Access to highly-skilled are reflected in changing labour These challenges advantage among firms. the primary source of competitive skills is quickly becoming thinking and problem-solving diverse anticipate and quickly adapt to their capacity to innovate and critical to help firms increase These workers are labour marketplace. However, globalization is also contributing to increasing and shifting demands in the global including the actual number of workers required or in terms of time (e.g., the numbers of hours worked). There are also There are also hours worked). the numbers of of time (e.g., required or in terms of workers the actual number including certain of work within jobs or the nature for certain as the skills required demand such aspects of labour qualitative industries. occupations and are being challenged by trends province and the rest of Canada employers throughout the In today’s environment, restructuring. As discussed in technologies and industrial trade liberalization, advancing such as globalization, Employers need the labour services of workers to help them produce their goods or services. The amount and type The amount goods or services. produce their to help them services of workers need the labour Employers ways in several can be measured Labour demand as labour demand. is referred to services they need of labour • • • • • • 4.0 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

4.1 Industry Employment

The industries people work in can provide a good indicator of the drivers in the local economy and the occupations people are most likely to work in. Distribution of Employment by Industry, Avalon Peninsula Region, 2000 Industry growth (and decline) can help point to occupations where job opportunities may arise or, conversely, where there is GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 18.6% likely to be a surplus of jobs and higher levels of unemployment. Manufacturing 7.3% Construction 6.6% Industry employment trends outside of a region can help point Fishing and trapping 2.8% Mining (including milling), quarrying and oil to occupations that are likely to be in higher demand elsewhere 1.3% and likely to pose competitive challenges for accessing workers well in the future. Agricultural and related service 0.5% Logging and forestry 0.1% SERVICES PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 80.1% Distribution of Employment by Industry Health and social service 13.9% Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula As shown in Figures 45, 46 and 47, the diversity of industries Retail trade 12.4% where people worked in 2000 in the Avalon Peninsula region Government service 9.9% was similar to the province and Canada. Educational service 8.4% Other service 7.3% Figure 45 However, there was a much higher concentration of Business service 6.8% employment in the services-producing industries (80.1 per cent) Accommodation, food and beverage service 6.1% than for the province (73.6 per cent) and Canada as a whole (75.2 Wholesale trade 4.5% per cent). Transportation and storage 3.8% Communication and other utility 3.4% The top five industries for employment in the region were health Finance and insurance 2.1% and social service, retail trade, government service, educational service and manufacturing. In total, these industries accounted Real estate operator and insurance agent 1.5% for about 52 per cent of all workers in the region. For the most 0% 50% 100% part, these industries were also among the top industries for employment in the province and Canada. Furthermore, the Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour top five industries in the province and Canada accounted for Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance. the same overall proportion of employment (NL: 52 per cent; See Endnote 71 Canada: 52 per cent).

62 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

Distribution of Employment by Industry, NL, 2000 Distribution of Employment by Industry, Canada, 2000

GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 26.4% 24.8% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Manufacturing 10.2% Manufacturing 14.1% Construction 6.8% Construction 5.8% Fishing and trapping 5.5% Agricultural and related service 2.7% Mining (including milling), quarrying and oil Mining (including milling), quarrying and oil 2.1% 1.1% well well Logging and forestry 1.0% Logging and forestry 0.6% Agricultural and related service 0.8% Fishing and trapping 0.3%

SERVICES PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 73.6% SERVICES PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 75.2% Retail trade 12.9% Retail trade 12.0% Health and social service 12.7% Health and social service 10.2% Government service 8.2% Business service 8.3% Educational service 7.9% Other service 7.3% Other service 6.8% Educational service 7.1% Figure 46 Figure 47 Accommodation, food and beverage Accommodation, food and beverage service 6.2% 6.9% service Transportation and storage 4.6% Government service 5.7% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Business service 4.6% Wholesale trade 5.2% Wholesale trade 3.9% Transportation and storage 4.2% Communication and other utility 3.0% Finance and insurance 3.7% Finance and insurance 1.7% Communication and other utility 3.0% Real estate operator and insurance agent 1.2% Real estate operator and insurance agent 1.7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations. Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations.

See Endnote 72 See Endnote 73

63 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

Employment Growth by Industry A decline in these industries was also evident at the provincial level. At the national level, there was a decline in government Overall employment growth is a key indicator of a healthy service industries while employment in the educational service economy. Unfortunately, it does not describe what industries industries grew by 8.4 per cent in this period. are having the most impact upon employment growth or where employment opportunities may be declining.

Figure 48 demonstrates that between 1995 and 2000, employment growth in the region occurred in the business service, health and social service, fishing and trapping, manufacturing and mining, quarrying and oil industries. Employment Growth/Decline by Industry (Absolute), Avalon Peninsula Region, 1995 to 2000 The reported growth in the manufacturing and fishing and trapping industries represents a partial recovery after the Business service 2,865 recession and collapse of the fishery in the early 1990s. Health and social service 2,040

Fishing and trapping 1,310 However, employment in the health and social services and Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula business services industries consistently grew during the 1990 to Manufacturing 1,185 Mining (including milling), quarrying and oil 885 2000 period. well Wholesale trade 620

• Between 1990 and 1995 employment grew by 6.7 per cent Accommodation, food and beverage service 575

(905 workers) in the health industries and 12.4 per cent (570 Other service 415 workers) in the business services industries. Real estate operator and insurance agent 315

• During the 1995 to 2000 period, employment continued to Transportation and storage 180 grow in the health industries (14.1 per cent or 2,040 workers) and the business services industries (55.4 per cent or 2,865 Communication and other utility 135 workers). Finance and insurance 15 Figure 48 Logging and forestry -30 Industry growth also occurred among these and other industries at the provincial and national levels. These trends indicate that Agricultural and related service -260 labour demands are similar among jurisdictions. Therefore, the Retail trade -650 competition for workers in these industries may increase in the Construction -905

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour future. Government service -995

Educational service -1,330 • Between 1995 and 2000, the greatest declines in employment at the regional level occurred in the educational service -4,000 0 4,000 industries (-1,330 workers or –11.8 per cent) and the government service industries (-995 workers or –7.8 per cent). Data Source(s): 1996 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 74

64 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

4.2 Employment by Occupation In 2000, 70 per cent of workers in the region were employed in the top four occupational categories (sales and services, office and related, trades, transport and equipment operators As shown in Figures 49, 50 and 51, the diversity and distribution and a general category referred to as all other occupations). of occupations in the Avalon Peninsula region is comparable to Comparatively, these were the same top occupational categories the province and the country. in the province and Canada.

The province did have a higher proportion of workers in the

primary occupations (8 per cent) than the country (4 per cent). Labour Market Indicators and Trends: The primary occupational concentration in the region, at 4 per cent, was the same as Canada.

Distribution of Employment by Occupation, Distribution of Employment by Occupation, NL, 2000 Avalon Peninsula Region, 2000

Processing and Sales and manufacturing Sales and Processing and service 5% Primary service manufacturing 26% 4% 25% 7% Office and Trades, transport

related PeninsulaAvalon Region and equipment 18% operators and Primary related 8% 16%

Trades, transport Office and

Figure 49 and equipment Figure 50 related Management operators and 14% 9% related 14% All other occupations Health 10% All other Management 7% Education occupations 8% Health Education 5% 13% 6% 5%

Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance. Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations.

See Endnote 75 See Endnote 76

65 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

Within the region, the distribution of workers by occupation As shown in Figure 52, the occupations that experienced the also differs between rural and urban areas. For example, relative strongest growth in the region between 1995 and 2000 included: to the rest of the region, the St. John’s CMA has many more of fishers; fish processing workers; other office and related; other its workers employed in office and related, management, sales primary occupations; and other health. and service, health, and education occupations, and a general category called all other occupations. The growth experienced in occupations related to the fishery may in part reflect the recovery period that took place between The proportion of workers in these occupational groups is 1995 and 2000. directly comparable to employment distribution patterns in Canada as a whole.

Occupational Growth (Per Cent), Avalon Peninsula Region, 1995 to 2000 Distribution of Employment by Occupation, Other - Education-16.8% Canada, 2000 Other - Construction and related -13.9% Jobs in protective services -12.7%

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Elementary and high school teachers -12.3% Secretaries and administrative -8.9% Retail salespersons, clerks, and cashiers -6.3% Processing and Sales and Clerical occupations -3.3% manufacturing service 8% 25% Equipment operators -2.4% Cleaners -1.5%

Primary Construction trades -1.1% 4% Nurses 0.3% Childcare and home support workers 1.6% Labourers 2.1% Trades, transport and equipment Food and beverage workers 4.2% Office and operators and Other - Sales and service 8.4%

related Figure 52 related Managers in retail trade, food, and 18% 11.1% Figure 51 14% accommodation services Mechanics 14.6% Other - Processing and manufacturing 15.0% Other - Management 17.8%

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour All other Other - Health 18.4% Management occupations Other - Primary 19.2% 12% 10% Health Other - Office and related 26.9% Education 5% Fish processing workers 32.9% 4% Fishers 50.1% Loggers NA

-30% 10% 50% Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations. Data Source(s): 1996 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: See Endnote 77 Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 78

66 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

The greatest absolute declines in occupational employment 4.3 Employment and Education were observed among other construction and related; secretaries and administrative occupations; retail salespersons, clerks and cashiers; other education; teachers; and clerical occupations. Higher levels of educational attainment tend to lead to better (Figure 53) labour market outcomes. Workers in the Avalon Peninsula region were generally better educated in 2000 than they were in 1990; more workers had a post-secondary education diploma, certificate or degree while fewer workers had high school or less as their highest level of education. Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

Occupational Decline (Absolute), Avalon Peninsula Region, 1995 to 2000

Other - Construction and related-535 Employment by Highest Level of Education, Avalon Peninsula Region, 1990 and 2000 Secretaries and administrative -505 Retail salespersons, clerks, and cashiers -500 Other - Education -475 Elementary and high school teachers -455 60% Clerical occupations -430 1990 2000 Jobs in protective services -280 Equipment operators -95 Cleaners -50 Construction trades -35 39.5% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Loggers 0 40% 33.3% Nurses 10 Labourers 65 28.5% Childcare and home support workers 70 Food and beverage workers 215 20.0% 18.3% Figure 53 Mechanics 255 20%

Figure 54 13.8% 13.1% Other - Primary 275 11.7% 12.7% Managers in retail trade, food, and 340 9.1% accomodation services Other - Processing and manufacturing 415 Fish processing workers 560 Other - Office and related 630 0% Less Than High High School Some Post- Post-Secondary University Other - Sales and service 645 School Diploma Secondary Certificate or Degree Other - Health 800 Diploma Fishers 995 Other - Management 1,055

-700 -200 300 800 Data Source(s): 1996 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland Data Source(s): 1991 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 79 Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. See Endnote 80

67 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

These trends indicate that there are increasing employment 4.4 firms opportunities for those with higher levels of education and a decreasing demand for lower-skilled workers, consistent with trends observed throughout the province and the country. The majority of employers in the province produce goods and services for the local population. As a result, the distribution of firms throughout the regions is very similar to the overall distribution of the population. This has changed very little since 1998.

As shown in Figure 55, almost half of the firms (48 per cent) in the province were in the Avalon Peninsula region. (See Appendix C for figures containing information for the St. John’s CMA)

Distribution of Firms by Rural Secretariat Region, 2004 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

St. Anthony - Port au Choix 3.3%

Burin Peninsula 3.6%

Stephenville - Port aux Basques 5.2%

Labrador 5.2%

Clarenville - Bonavista 6.0%

Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - 9.4% Harbour Breton

Gander - New-Wes-Valley 9.5% Figure 55

Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour 9.5%

St. John's CMA 37.0% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

Avalon Peninsula 47.8%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Data Source(s): Business Register, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance.

68 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

The size of a firm can provide a relatively good indicator of the 4.5 other Considerations for Labour Demand resources available to an employer to pay for employee wages and benefits or that can be allocated or invested in various Public and Private Sector Employment functions and activities, such as human resource planning and workplace training. Figure 57 shows that in 2005, 30 per cent of all employees in the province worked in the public sector.82 This represents one of the As shown in Figure 56, the majority of firms (60.1 per cent) in the highest proportions in the country, just behind Saskatchewan province are small, employing one to four individuals, similar and Prince Edward Island. to Canada. While this is also the case for the Avalon Peninsula Labour Market Indicators and Trends: region, proportionally, the region has more larger firms than the province as a whole.

Distribution of Firms by Number of Employees, Proportion of Employees in Public Sector, Avalon Peninsula Region and NL, 2004 Provinces and Canada, 2005

Avalon Peninsula Province 80% Alberta 20.7%

Ontario 20.8%

60.1% British Columbia 21.6% 60% 56.3% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Canada 22.9%

Quebec 24.4% 40% New Brunswick 27.1% 29.9% 28.6% Nova Scotia 27.5% Figure 56 Figure 57 20% Manitoba 29.7% 11.2% 9.4% Newfoundland and Labrador 30.1% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% Saskatchewan 31.0% 0% 1 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 99 100 to 499 500 + Prince Edward Island 31.5% # of Employees 0% 20% 40%

Data Source(s): Business Register, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance. Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.

See Endnote 81 See Endnote 83

69 Indicators and Trends in Labour Demand

Between 1997 and 2005, most of the employment growth in the Unionization province was in the private sector (increased by 22.6 per cent) while employment in the public sector generally held its own. The proportion of unionized employees is usually a measure of labour market outcomes for workers. As shown in Figure 58, These indicators point to improving economic and labour more employees in the province have union coverage than in market conditions in the province. Canada overall.

Wages among these workers tend to be higher than non- unionized employees; in 2005, unionized employees in the province received an average weekly wage of $782 compared to $517 among non-unionized employees.

Proportion of Unionized Employees, Canada and NL, 1997 to 2005 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

Newfoundland and Labrador Canada

45% 40.7% 40.0% 39.9% 39.9% 39.3% 39.1% 39.3% 38.8% 37.3%

33.7% 33.0% 32.3% 32.4% 32.3% 32.2% 32.2% 31.7% 32.0%

30% Figure 58 15% Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.

70 5.0 Labour Market Outcomes

Labour market outcomes for individuals such as employment, participation and unemployment levels tend to be key measures of the overall health and performance of labour markets. These and other outcome indicators, including the duration of work, employment income and wages are explored in this section of the report.

Generally, it is observed that labour market outcomes have been improving for individuals throughout all regions of the province in recent years. While gaps still remain when these outcomes are compared to the province (and the

province is compared to Canada overall), in many cases there is evidence that the gaps are closing. Labour Market Outcomes

Within the province, reported labour market outcomes are strongly influenced by a number of factors including a relatively stronger dependency on seasonal industries, especially in rural areas. It is important to understand the impacts of these factors to help address existing gaps, improve outcomes for individuals and support employers in responding to critical labour supply pressures that are emerging.

5.1 Employment

There are several different sources of labour market information that collect data related to employment and work in the province. They indicate that employment has increased in the province since the late 1990s. However, each of these sources collect different types of employment-related information and for different purposes. Given the current environment and growing concerns about the future availability of workers, it is critical to consider these sources together to fully understand peoples’ labour market activities in the province and at the regional and community level.

The most widely recognized measure of employment is Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), a monthly survey which provides a timely indicator of how many people are employed each month. An average of these monthly estimates is calculated to determine how many people were employed on an average monthly basis throughout the year. Thus, the LFS produces estimates of full-time equivalent positions, and can be viewed as one measure of the quantity of labour demanded in the economy each year.

The LFS is a timely and valuable tool for guiding policy development and is extremely important to help understand the economy and what is happening at a macroeconomic level in provincial labour markets. While the LFS produces data for four economic regions in the province, data for smaller regions and communities is not available due to the small survey size used in the province. Taxfiler Administrative records are another source of employment data that can be used in conjunction with the LFS to better understand employment trends in the province. These records capture the number of people who claim employment income throughout the year. Thus, the data can be used to estimate the number of different people who are employed at some point during the year. This source of information is timely considering that annual data is available up to the last taxation year. Taxfiler data is also highly reliable at the regional level. Labour Market Outcomes

Figure 59 is interesting in that it compares employment Number of People with Employment Income (15+ Years), and trends according to the Labour Force Survey and taxfiler data. Annual Average Employment (15+ Years), NL, 1990 to 2004 Together, these sources provide highly valuable insights about the nature and complexity of employment in the province.

All regions in the province experienced a difficult period Taxfiler Data Employment (LFS) throughout the early to mid 1990s, largely driven by a North 350,000 American recession and the collapse of the groundfishery.

However, since 1996, employment has increased throughout the 300,000 279,460 270,580 province. 250,000 The LFS data show that average monthly employment levels in 206,900 214,300 the province have increased since 1996 to reach 214,300 (person- 200,000 years) in 2004, above 1990 levels. The taxfiler data also shows that the number of different people with employment income 150,000

has increased since 1996 to reach 270,580 in 2004, however, levels Figure 59 remain below those reported in 1990. The taxfiler data indicate 100,000

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula that there is a much higher number of people employed at some point during the year than on an average monthly basis. 50,000

At first, these findings may seem confusing. However, they 0 make more sense when considering the highly seasonal nature 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 of employment in many industries in the province. The taxfiler data show that there are a greater number of different people employed over the course of a year than on an average monthly basis mainly due to the high percentage of part-year workers in Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada; Canada Revenue Agency the province, especially in rural areas. Summary Information and Small Area and Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance. The employment increases observed since 1996 are a result of an increase in the number of different people working as well as the fact that people are working longer during the year. As people work longer during the year there may be increases in the number of people employed each month, which drives Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour up the average monthly employment. However, this does not mean that there is an increase in the total number of different people employed at some point during the year. Higher average monthly employment may in fact be achieved with the same number (or even fewer) people working for longer periods.

The impacts of these trends are further discussed in Section 5.4 relating to trends in the average duration of employment (average weeks worked) in the province.

72 Labour Market Outcomes

Number of Taxfilers with Employment Income, Number of Taxfilers with Employment Income, Avalon Peninsula Region, 1990 to 2004 NL, 1990 to 2004

130,000 279,460

129,340 276,000 270,580 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: 125,000

121,850

264,000 120,000 Figure 60 Figure 61 252,000 115,000

110,000 240,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region

Data Source(s): Canada Revenue Agency Summary Information and Small Area and Data Source(s): Canada Revenue Agency Summary Information and Small Area and Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance. Agency, Department of Finance.

As shown in Figures 60 and 61, trends in the number of people Since that time, the region has been undergoing growth and with employment income at the regional level parallel trends restructuring and employment has been increasing. In 2004, observed at the provincial level. The number of taxfilers with the number of taxfilers with employment income (at 129,340) employment income in the Avalon Peninsula region dropped was well above the early 1990s. This is in contrast to most other from a high of 122,660 in 1991 to 113,660 in 1996. regions where employment levels in 2004 were generally below those in the early 1990s. The employment trend in the St. John’s CMA is very similar to the Avalon Peninsula as a whole as shown in the figure in Appendix C.

73 Labour Market Outcomes

Figure 62 shows that in 2004, the proportion of people reporting Proportion of People with Employment Income (15+ Years), employment income (15+ years) in the region was 64.4 per cent NL, Avalon Peninsula Region and Local Areas, 2004 compared to 62.9 per cent in the province and 68.4 per cent in Canada.84

Bell Island 37.7% Between 1996 and 2004, the proportion of those reporting Spaniard's Bay Area 54.4% employment income in the region increased by 6.4 percentage New Perlican-Winterton Area 57.4% points compared to 6.6 in the province and 6.7 for Canada. Clarke's Beach Area 57.6% Harbour Grace Area 58.3% Carbonear Area 58.4% There are differences in employment patterns within the region. Whitbourne Area 58.4% For example, the proportion of people with employment income Heart's Delight Area 58.4% in the Northeast Avalon area (66.7 per cent) was more closely Placentia-St. Bride's Area 59.0% aligned with figures observed in Canada than in most of the Head of Conception Bay 59.3% region and the province. The Bell Island local area reported the Bay Roberts Area 60.3% lowest incidence of employment among its population at 37.7 St. Mary's Bay 61.3% North Shore of Conception Bay 62.3%

per cent. Figure 62 Newfoundland and Labrador 62.9% Trepassey Bay 62.9% Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula It is also interesting to note that in terms of growth and overall Avalon Peninsula Region 64.4% performance, in 2004, the number of people with employment Northeast Avalon (including St. John's) 66.7% income in the Northeast Avalon area was 12 per cent higher Southern Shore 67.2% than 1990 levels, the strongest increase of any local area in the 30% 50% 70% region.85

Data Source(s): Canada Revenue Agency Summary Information and Small Area and Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 86 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

74 Labour Market Outcomes

5.2 Participation 5.3 unemployment

The participation rate measures the percentage of people in As shown in Figure 64, average annual unemployment rates the population (generally 15+ years) who participate in the have been decreasing in Canada, the province and the region. labour market either by working or looking for work. High or increasing participation rates reflect optimism about the Unemployment rates in the Avalon Peninsula region are lower availability of jobs and confidence in the economy. than the province but higher than Canada as a whole. A similar trend exists for the St. John’s CMA shown in Appendix C. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Average annual participation rates in the province have generally been increasing since 1976. This is consistent These unemployment rates reflect the highly seasonal nature of throughout all regions of the province and in the rest of Canada. work in the province and shorter work periods during the year, as opposed to a relatively higher proportion of people who are The Avalon Peninsula region is shown in Figure 63.87 This is unemployed all year long. This is further discussed in the next the only economic region (of the four) that has participation section on part-year work. rates higher than the province. This is also reflected in the participation rates for the St. John’s CMA which are very similar to Canada (see Appendix C).

Participation Rates (15+ Years), 1997 to 2005 Unemployment Rates (15+ Years), 1997 to 2005 (Annual Average) (Annual Average)

Canada Canada

Newfoundland and Labrador Newfoundland and Labrador PeninsulaAvalon Region Economic Region 1010: Avalon Peninsula Economic Region 1010: Avalon Peninsula 70% 20% 18.4% 67.2%

64.8% 62.0% 16.8% 15.2% 58.8% 58.0% 11.9%

50% 52.5% Figure 63 Figure 64 10%

9.1% 6.8%

30% 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada. Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.

75 Labour Market Outcomes

5.4 Part-Year Work There are several implications associated with these trends. First, and perhaps most significantly, within the province there are likely more people working throughout the year Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest proportion of part- than is generally perceived. As discussed in Section 5.1, the year workers in the country. Labour Force Survey is the most common and timely source of employment data. However, the annual average employment In 2000, only 47.7 per cent of workers in the province worked for levels reported from the LFS reflect an average of those the full-year compared with 63.5 per cent of workers in Canada employed each month during the year. as a whole.88 In a highly seasonal economy characterized by a high proportion This is largely due to a strong dependency upon seasonal of part-year workers, it is likely that there are months during the industries in the province, especially in rural areas (non-CA/ year when employment and unemployment fluctuate above and CMA) where only 34 per cent of workers were employed in full- below the annual average levels that are reported in the LFS. year jobs in 2000. This can create a misleading impression of the actual number of people who work or who are available for work, as well as the As shown in Figure 65, the Avalon Peninsula region has the surpluses or shortages of labour. highest proportion of full-year workers within the regions and

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula the province as a whole: 56.8 per cent of workers in the Avalon Peninsula region were employed in full-year jobs in 2000.

However, there are significant differences within the region. The highest incidence of full-year workers in the region was in the Northeast Avalon Area (63.3 per cent), which includes St. John’s and the largest communities in the region. In contrast, only 19.6 per cent of workers were employed in full-year jobs in the North Shore of Conception Bay Area.

The reliance on shorter duration, part-year, seasonal jobs is decreasing and people are working for longer periods during the year. This trend is evident in all regions of the province.

As shown in Figure 66, the proportion of part-year workers who were employed for 21 weeks or more in the Avalon Peninsula Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour region increased between 1995 and 2000.

The greatest increases were in both the proportion of workers who were employed for 21 to 48 weeks or 49+ weeks during the year. In contrast, the proportion of workers who were employed for 20 weeks or less declined.

76 Labour Market Outcomes

The high proportion of part-year workers also points to the Furthermore, many of these workers live in rural areas where potential for people to work longer during the year to help meet the workforce is older, and education levels tend to be lower future labour demands. However, many of these workers will than the province as a whole. These workers will require still be required to work in the seasonal industries where they significant supports if they choose to transition into new are currently employed. This will be particularly true in the occupations associated with growth industries in the future. future as the relatively older workforce in these industries retires and leaves the labour market. Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

Distribution of Full-Year and Part-Year Workers Distribution of Weeks Worked (18-64 Years), (18-64 Years), NL, Regions and CMA/CAs, 2000 Avalon Peninsula Region, 1995 and 2000

1995 2000 Worked part-year (1-48 weeks) Worked full-year (49 weeks or more) 60% 56.8% 54.7% 90% Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region 76.4%

68.6% 40%

50% 66.1% 64.6% 62.5% 62.4% 61.6% 60.3% 56.8% 52.4% 52.3% 50.0% 50.0% 47.7% 47.5% 23.7% 43.2% 39.9% 38.4% 37.6% 37.5% 23.9% 35.4% 33.9% 31.5% 22.4% 10% 20% Figure 65 Figure 66

Labrador 8.7% 8.4% 8.2% 6.8% 6.0% 4.3% Basques Burin Peninsula Avalon Peninsula

Aggregate CMA/CA 0% Stephenville - Port aux

Clarenville - Bonavista 1 to 11 weeks 12 to 14 weeks 15 to 20 weeks 21 to 48 weeks Worked full- Aggregate non-CMA/CA

Verte - Harbour Breton year (49 weeks Gander - New-Wes-Valley Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie St. Anthony - Port au Choix Newfoundland and Labrador or more) Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour

Data Source(s): 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland and Data Source(s): 1996 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada, Custom Tabulations; Newfoundland Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of and Labrador Statistics Agency; Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 89 See Endnote 90

77 Labour Market Outcomes

5.5 Income, Wages and Non-Wage Benefits Average Real Employment Income (Taxfilers), Avalon Peninsula Region and NL, 1990 to 2004 Trends in relative income and wage levels reflect changes in the

demand for workers and the standard of living for individuals Province Avalon Peninsula in the labour market. $29,000

$24,559 Average Employment Income

Average employment income has been increasing throughout all $20,871 regions of the province and Canada. However, average income $21,000 levels tend to be lower in the regions than at the provincial level, $21,565 and the average employment income for the province is lower than for Canada as a whole. $18,307

$13,000 In 2004, only the Labrador and Avalon Peninsula regions had average employment incomes above the provincial level. Figure 67 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Growth in the average employment income for the Avalon Peninsula region and the province is shown in Figure 67. $5,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Data Source(s): Canada Revenue Agency Summary Information and Small Area and Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada; Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/ Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 91 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

78 Labour Market Outcomes

Average Employment Income (Taxfilers), Local In 2004, the average real employment income in the Avalon Areas Within Avalon Peninsula Region, 2004 Peninsula region was approximately 14 per cent above the provincial average.92

North Shore of Conception Bay $15,838 New Perlican - Winterton Area $16,133 As shown in Figure 68, within the region there was only one Bell Island $17,716 area where the average employment income among workers Heart's Delight Area $18,250 exceeded the regional average in 2004. This was in the Northeast 93 St. Mary's Bay $18,813 Avalon Area.

Placentia - St. Bride's Area $19,730 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Whitbourne Area $19,897 Among all the other local areas in the region, the lowest average Spaniard's Bay Area $19,898 employment income was in the New Perlican-Winterton and Southern Shore $20,367 Harbour Grace Area $21,651 North Shore of Conception Bay areas. Carbonear Area $22,036 Trepassey Bay $22,271 Clarke's Beach Area $22,618 Bay Roberts Area $23,606 Figure 68 Head of Conception Bay $25,356 Newfoundland and Labrador $26,503 Avalon Peninsula Region $30,183 Northeast Avalon (including St. John's) $33,284

$0 $20,000 $40,000

Data Source(s): Canada Revenue Agency Summary Information and Small Area and

Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics PeninsulaAvalon Region Agency, Department of Finance; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 94

79 Labour Market Outcomes

Wages In 2005, the average weekly wages in the Avalon Peninsula region were higher than the province as a whole but lower than As shown in Figures 69 and 70, average weekly wages have been the West Coast-Northern Peninsula–Labrador region. (Figure 71) increasing in the province and the region since 1997. However, average weekly wages in the St. John’s CMA were the While increases are still evident when these wages are adjusted highest of all the regions shown in the figure. for inflation (i.e., real), they are not as large. (See also Appendix C for real and nominal weekly wages in the CMA from 1997 to Wage gaps between men and women are also a concern. In 2005, 2005) male employees in the province earned an average wage of $723 per week while females earned $508, a gap of 42 per cent. This gap has narrowed somewhat since 1997, when men’s average weekly wages were approximately 54 per cent higher than women’s.

Average Weekly Wages (Real vs Nominal), NL, Average Weekly Wages (Real vs Nominal), Avalon 1997 to 2005 Peninsula Economic Region, 1997 to 2005 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula

Nominal Real Nominal Real

650 650 $629 $616 $599 $595 $588 $588 $584 $568 $570 $550 $526 $526 $497 $504 $504 $502 $498 $498 $499 $495 $493 $487 $488 $496 500 $480 $484 $478 500 $484 $464 $466 $465 $464 $458 $455 $452 $456

Figure 69 350 Figure 70 350 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

200 200 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey and Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada; Data Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey and Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Presentation/Analysis: Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

See Endnote 95 See Endnote 96

80 Labour Market Outcomes

Non-Wage Benefits As shown in Figure 72, for those firms that do offer benefits, health benefits are the most common benefits offered and Non-wage benefits are an important source of compensation employee training is one of the least common benefits. The data for employees. In the provincial economy, where wages are also point to a potentially large proportion of workers without relatively lower than high wage economies like Alberta, the pension benefits. availability of non-wage benefits could impact the attraction and retention of workers.

However, early results from a provincial wage rate survey Labour Market Indicators and Trends: indicate that many small firms in the province do not offer non- wage benefits to their employees.

Average Weekly Wages, NL and Economic Percentage of Firms by Type of Non-Wage Benefit Regions, 2005 Offered to Permanent Employees, NL, 2004

Percent of firms that offer the non-wage benefit St. John's CMA $638 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Medical or health 64.2% Economic Region 1030: West Coast - $636 Northern Peninsula - Labrador

Dental 39.8% PeninsulaAvalon Region

Life and/or disability Economic Region 1010: Avalon Peninsula $629 35.3% insurance

Employee discounts 17.9% Newfoundland and Labrador $616 Pension plan (not 14.5% Figure 71 Figure 72 CPP) Economic Region 1020: South Coast - Burin $584 Peninsula Group RRSP 13.9%

Economic Region 1040: Notre Dame - Flexible working $568 9.4% Central Bonavista Bay hours Job related 6.6% $200 $400 $600 education/training

Data Source(s): Preliminary Results, Newfoundland and Labrador Wage Rate Survey, Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada; Data Presentation/Analysis: Department Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance; Special Tabulations by of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. Bristol Group.

See Endnote 97 See Endnote 98

81 Labour Market Outcomes

Occupations and Wages In contrast, people working in occupations that require lower skill levels or that are in decline tend to earn less than the Figures 73 and 74 show average weekly wage rates for provincial average wage. Some of the growth that has occurred occupations in the province that fall above and below the in these lower wage occupations may reflect changes in the provincial average wage rate. People that work in occupations minimum wage legislation. that require higher levels of education, that are in high demand, or are growing, tend to earn more, such as those who work in management occupations, health occupations and the skilled trades.

Occupations with Average Weekly Wage Rates Occupations with Average Weekly Wage Rates Above Provincial Average, NL, 2005 Below Provincial Average, NL, 2005

Management occupations $977 Provincial average $616

Teachers and professors $946 Machine operators and assemblers in $598 manufacturing, including supervisors Natural and applied sciences and related $945 Financial, secretarial and administrative Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula $575 Professional occupations in health, nurse occupations $934 supervisors and registered nurses Technical, assisting and related occupations $568 Professional occupations in business and in health $875 finance Occupations unique to processing, Occupations in social science, education, $546 $866 manufacturing and utilities government service and religion Business, finance and administrative Contractors and supervisors in trades and $545 $837 occupations transportation Occupations in art, culture, recreation and $517 Other trades occupations $769 sport Trades helpers, construction, and Occupations unique to primary industry $761 $501 transportation labourers and related Occupations in social science, government $741 service and religion Clerical occupations, including supervisors $492 Figure 73 Transport and equipment operators $738 Figure 74 Labourer in processing, manufacturing and $455 utilities Health occupations $729 Sales and service occupations $354 Occupation in protective services $720 Chefs and cooks, and occupations in food $338 and beverage service, including supervisors Construction trades $711 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Sales and service occupations n.e.c., Trades, transport and equipment operators $327 $711 including occupations in travel and and related occupations Retail salespersons, sales clerks, cashiers, Wholesale, technical, insurance, real estate $305 $624 including retail trade supervisors sales specialists, and retail, wholesale and Provincial average $616 Childcare and home support workers $257

$200 $600 $1,000 $200 $400 $600 $800

Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada. Data Source(s): Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.

See Endnote 99 See Endnote 100

82 Next Steps s Step t x

Providing training on how to use labour market and career information for career practitioners, guidance labour market and career information for career practitioners, Providing training on how to use of the province; and counsellors, parents, community planners and others in all regions occupations that are hard-to-fill. Developing a job vacancy monitor to help identify and monitor Developing and implementing a provincial labour market information campaign to help raise awareness about provincial labour market information campaign to help raise awareness Developing and implementing a organizations; well as the resources and supports available to individuals and opportunities in the province as students, parents, and career information products for specific groups, including Developing tailored labour market job seekers and employers; supply and demand forecasting model; Developing a provincial occupational Launching a one-stop labour market and career information portal for the province. The site will be an information and career information portal for the province. The site will Launching a one-stop labour market market trends; and human resource planning and monitoring labour tool to support research, career development, assistance to market and career information hot-line to provide individualized Expanding a toll-free phone labour information; need help in finding and interpreting labour market and career individuals and organizations who nE Despite the wealth of information included in the report, it is recognized that labour market information gaps still included in the report, it is recognized that labour market information Despite the wealth of information basis. The will need ready access to this information on an on-going exist and that individuals and organizations of initiatives with Labour and Employment is currently undertaking a number Department of Human Resources, to information. partners that will help address these gaps and increase access business, labour and other government be carried out as part of these initiatives include: Some of the key activities that will future and developing strategies to address emerging challenges and opportunities. strategies to address emerging future and developing the province have been improving, that labour market conditions in in this report demonstrate Many of the findings current labour market trends. of inter-related factors influencing 1997. However, there are a number especially since for skill and labour shortages, for the future, including the potential implications and needs These point to significant address to increase participation and the workforce, and the need education and skill levels among the need to increase groups in the labour market. barriers among under-represented are impacting the Avalon Peninsula region. This information can help people in making more informed labour market more informed in making can help people This information Peninsula region. the Avalon are impacting overall and support among employers competitiveness increase employment outcomes, to help improve decisions and the province. development in the region social and economic in providing a solid baseline tool for individuals and organizations intended to serve as a reference The report is also in the of labour market indicators in monitoring a wide variety information that can assist people of detailed, regional The information presented throughout this report is intended to help address labour market information gaps at the information labour market to help address report is intended throughout this presented The information dynamics that trends and the labour market better understand organizations individuals and level and to help regional • • • • • • • 6.0 Endnotes

8. The indicators and trends presented in this report build upon endnotes information developed for Understanding the Labour Market Landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador: A Baseline Report (HRLE, 1. The Labour Market Sub-Committee of the Strategic Partnership NLSA, MUN, 2004). The baseline report provides a comprehensive Initiative is a high level partnership between business, labour overview of key labour market indicators for the province, and government to advance labour market development in including indicators for rural and urban areas. The report is Newfoundland and Labrador. The committee is a key partner available at www.hrle.gov.nl.ca/hrle/publications/list.htm. in the Strengthening Partnerships in the Labour Market Initiative. Further information about the committee is available at: www. 9. See Appendix A for a map of the Rural Secretariat regions. labourmarketcommittee.ca. 10. For further information on the Labour Force Survey please see Appendix B. 2. During the 2003 to 2004 period, HRLE carried out several major labour market research initiatives in partnership with 11. See Endnote 8. business, labour and government. The results of this research are 12. The definition of community used for this analysis is contained in summarized in four background reports including: Understanding Appendix A. the Labour Market Landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador: A Baseline Report; A Consultation on Future Demand for Labour in the Private 13. (1) The definition of community used for this analysis is contained Sector in Newfoundland and Labrador; A Consultation on Labour Market in Appendix A. (2) The data does not reflect individuals living in

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Issues in Newfoundland and Labrador; and Doing What Works: Barriers areas outside the community definition. These people represent to Participation in the Labour Market. These reports are available at: about 0.3 per cent of the population. (3) 2004 is the latest year that www.hrle.gov.nl.ca/hrle/publications/list.htm. population estimates for all the communities is available. (4) See cautionary note on population estimates in Section 1.4 this report. 3. The province’s nine Rural Secretariat regions are the main geographic areas described in the regional labour market reports. 14. Within regional labour markets, indicators for urban areas tend Selected data is also presented for the province, Canada, standard to be more closely aligned to provincial and national figures. Census geographies, Labour Force Survey regions and smaller Throughout this report, the largest community in the region was local areas within the regions. Details and maps for the various selected to demonstrate this trend. However, data for other large geographic areas used in the reports are provided in Appendix A. communities in the region also reflect similar trends. These data are Further information about the Rural Secretariat regions may be available upon request. found at: www.gov.nl.ca/rural. 15. See Endnote 13. This report is available at: www.hrle.gov.nl.ca/hrle/publications/list. 4. 16. See Endnote 13. htm. 17. All data referenced in the remainder of this section refer to Table 2. 5. In Fall 2005, HRLE held regional labour market information workshops throughout the province to share new labour market 18. Employed in this instance refers to all taxfilers who claimed Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour information about trends in the regions and to provide stakeholders employment income. with an opportunity to validate the findings. The summary report 19. (1) The working age population as a percentage of the total reflects stakeholders’ perspectives put forward in these workshops. population for the communities listed in the table is based on 2005 6. Further information about the provincial labour market symposium data. (2) The definition of community used in this table varies may be found at: www.labourmarketcommittee.ca. slightly depending on the indicator reported. Readers should contact HRLE if they require further information. 7. Appendix B provides an overview of the information sources used in this report.

84 Endnotes

20. Comparable labour force data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) 26. (1) The community population figures contained in the table are is not available for the Rural Secretariat regions. However, it is non-official trend estimates prepared by the Demography Division, available for four economic regions in the province from 1987 Statistics Canada. These estimates are not based on components onwards. The LFS region that captures the largest proportion of of population growth (i.e., births, deaths, and migration) as are people in the Rural Secretariat region is presented throughout this the official Statistics Canada estimates for provinces. (2) The latest report for 2005 indicators. See Appendix A for a map of the Labour annual population estimates available for Canada, the province Force Survey regions. and the Rural Secretariat regions are July 1, 2006. However, the latest detailed community data available was 2004. Numbers for 21. Regional LFS data by gender is not available.

2004 are based on estimates developed by the Newfoundland and Labour Market Indicators and Trends: 22. See Endnote 20. Labrador Statistics Agency, Department of Finance, from an earlier 23. Most labour market indicators are based upon the communities population release. As a result, population figures for individual where people live. This can create a misleading picture of the actual communities should be used with caution, and are subject to number of workers available (or not available) in a particular area revision. as well as an inaccurate picture of current economic conditions. 27. See cautionary note on population estimates in Section 1.4 of this Assume, for example, that 40 per cent of workers in Clarenville report. actually commute from smaller, surrounding communities. Given See Endnote 27. that current employment measures are based on a worker’s place 28. of residence, reported employment in these smaller communities 29. (1) The medium assumption scenario was used for the population may actually be overestimated. On the other hand, employment projections to 2021. See Appendix B for further information on in Clarenville may be significantly underestimated. Furthermore, the Newfoundland and Labrador Population Projections. (2) See the readily available supply of labour for Clarenville may also be cautionary note on population estimates in Section 1.4. significantly larger than perceived if the labour force in surrounding 30. See Endnote 27. communities is taken into account. The available employment opportunities for individuals in these smaller communities may 31. See Endnote 29. Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region also be greater if opportunities within the larger workflow area are 32. Data is in Census Year (e.g., July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006). considered. These considerations will become more critical in future as labour supply pressures increase. 33. See What We Heard: A Summary of Regional Perspectives on Labour Market Trends in Newfoundland and Labrador (HRLE, 2006). The 24. (1) This data is based on reported “usual place of work” from the report is available at www.hrle.gov.nl.ca/hrle/publications/list.htm. Census. It excludes those with no fixed workplace address. (2) Workers at the mine sites in Labrador West are counted as living 34. (1) Figures include net interprovincial migration, net international and working in the same community. migration and residual deviation. (2) Data is in Census Year (e.g., July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006). 25. (1) The data reflects the average distance travelled for people that live and work in different communities, and does not include 35. A Survey of Expatriates from Newfoundland and Labrador (1996 to people that live and work in the same community. (2) The data 2004), (HRLE, 2005). is based on reported “usual place of work” from the Census. It 36. (1) Figures do not include international migration. (2) Data is in excludes those with no fixed workplace address. (3) Workers at the Census Year (e.g., July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006). mine sites in Labrador West are counted as living and working in the same community. (4) Distance reflects the mileage that would 37. See Endnote 36. be travelled one way, and does not include a round trip to work 38. See Endnote 33. and back home each day.

85 Endnotes

39. The Avalon Peninsula region is reflected in the Avalon Peninsula 50. Immigrant is defined as a person who is, or has ever been, a landed Census Division. See Appendix A for a map of Census Divisions immigrant in Canada. within the province. 51. See Endnote 27. 40. (1) Data is in Census Year (e.g., July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004). (2) 52. See Endnote 27. Avalon Peninsula (non-CMA) refers to the Avalon Peninsula Census Division, excluding the St. John’s CMA. 53. The term “baby boomer” refers to the individuals born during the post-Second World War industrial boom (those born between 1946 (1) This data does not include individuals that moved outside the 41. and 1966). The youth cohorts for 1991 (i.e., those between the ages country between 1996 and 2001. (2) For analysis purposes, this of 0 and 19 years) would be children of the boomers. table uses custom geographies (e.g., CA) and not communities and, as a result, may somewhat understate the number of people 54. See Endnote 29. that actually moved to a new community during the 1996 to 2001 55. Data includes those who worked at least one week in 1990 and 2000. period. This is because the figures do not reflect people that moved to a new community within the same custom geography displayed. 56. See Endnote 33. For example, people moving to a new community located within 57. “Less Than High School” education means that the person does not the same CMA or CA (e.g. , Mount Pearl to St. John’s, Botwood have a high school graduation certificate. to Grand Falls-Windsor, Wabush to Labrador City, etc.) are not reflected in the figures. 58. See Appendix A for a map of local areas within the region. Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula 42. See Endnote 36. 59. Local areas are based on Census Consolidated Subdivisions. See Appendix A for a map of the local areas. 43. See Endnote 36. 60. See Endnote 29. 44. See Endnote 36. 61. This LFS region captures the population in the Avalon Peninsula 45. (1) Data reflects education levels reported at the time of the 1991, Rural Secretariat region. Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey 1996 and 2001 Censuses. (2) The figures reflect people that moved in does not report labour force indicators for the province’s Rural the five years preceding the Census. For example, in the 2001 data, Secretariat regions. However, it does capture data for other the migrants would have left the province between May 15, 1996 geographic regions in the province. See Appendix A for a map of and May 15, 2001. (3) This data does not reflect Canadians living the Labour Force Survey regions in the province. outside Canada at the time of the Census. 62. Local areas are based on Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics 46. See Endnote 45. Agency definitions that use postal code and Census Consolidated 47. See Endnote 45. Subdivisions. 48. The top occupational group shown is “All other occupations”. This 63. See Endnote 62.

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour category includes an aggregation of many different occupations 64. The occupational categories in this statement have been drawn from where employment is too low to list the occupations individually. a more detailed occupational listing than shown in Table 7. 49. (1) Data reflects occupations reported at the time of the 2001 65. (1) Labour force status indicators are based on the reference week, Census. Custom occupational categories are used based on the 2001 Census. (2) Occupational data is experienced labour force 1991 Standard Occupational Classification. (2) Figures reflect from the Census. Occupational classification used is 2001 National out-migrants that had at least 1 week of work in 2000. (3) The out- Occupation Classification for Statistics. (3) Average employment migrant figures include people that moved from the province in income figures are for only those with employment income in 2000. the five years preceding the Census (i.e., migrants who have moved from the province between May 15, 1996 and May 15, 2001).

86 Endnotes

66. “Persons With Disabilities” includes people that reported in the 80. Employment is defined as those with employment income in the Census having a physical condition or mental condition or health reference year. problem that reduced the amount or kind of activity that they could 81. The number of firms with 500+ employees was suppressed for all do either at home, at work or school, or otherwise such as leisure. regions except the Corner Brook-Rocky Harbour region and the Also see Endnote 65. Avalon Peninsula region to meet the confidentiality requirements 67. “Immigrant” is defined as a person who is, or has ever been, a of the Statistics Act. Figures may not add to totals due to residual landed immigrant in Canada. Also see Endnote 65. categories and suppression.

68. “Aboriginal” refers to people who reported in the Census as 82. Public and private sector information is not available at the regional Labour Market Indicators and Trends: identifying with at least one Aboriginal group, (i.e., North level. American Indian, Métis or Inuit, and/or those who reported being 83. Public sector includes those who work for a local, provincial or a Treaty Indian or Registered Indian as defined by the Indian Act federal government, for a government service or agency, a crown of Canada and/or who were members of an Indian Band or First corporation, or a government funded establishment such as a school Nation). Also see Endnote 65. (including universities) or hospital. 69. See Endnote 65. 84. For this purpose, employment is defined as taxfilers who claimed 70. See Endnote 65. employment income. 71. (1) Employed is defined as those having worked at least 1 week 85. See Endnote 58. and having employment income in the reference year. (2) Standard 86. (1) Data is based on taxfilers with employment income. (2) The Industrial Classification 1980 (SIC) Codes used for industries. (3) population figure used is taxfilers and dependents 15 years and While the “Communications and Other Utilities Industries” have over. (3) Local areas are based on Newfoundland and Labrador been included under the Services Sector in this figure, Utilities Statistics Agency definitions that use postal code and Census Industries are often typically included in the Goods Sector when Consolidated Subdivisions. sufficient detail is available. 87. See Appendix A for a map of areas covered in the provincial Labour PeninsulaAvalon Region See Endnote 71. 72. Force Survey regions. 73. See Endnote 71. 88. Full-year workers in this definition includes those who worked for 74. (1) Employed is defined as those having worked at least 1 week 49 weeks or more during the year. and having employment income in the reference year. (2) Standard 89. Part-year work is defined as being between 1-48 weeks in the Industrial Classification 1980 (SIC) Codes used for industries. reference year. Full-year work lasts for 49 weeks or longer. 75. (1) Employed is defined as those having worked at least 1 week 90. See Endnote 89. and having employment income in the reference year. (2) 1991 Standard Occupational Classification used for custom occupational 91. (1) Figures include those having reported employment for the year. classification; 2 digit level. (2) Figures have been adjusted for inflation using the provincial Consumer Price Index. 76. See Endnote 75. 92. Average employment incomes have been adjusted for inflation in See Endnote 75. 77. this instance. 78. See Endnote 75. 93. See Endnote 58. 79. See Endnote 75.

87 Endnotes

94. (1) Figures include those having reported employment for the year. (2) Local areas are based on postal code and Census Consolidated Subdivisions. 95. (1) Wage data is for employees 15 years of age and over only. (2) Figures have been adjusted for inflation using the provincial Consumer Price Index. 96. See Endnote 95. 97. Wage data is for employees 15 years of age and over only. 98. (1) Data is only for Firms Offering Non-Wage Benefits. Percentages may exceed 100 per cent due to multiple responses. (2) These results are for 5,087 firms interviewed up to Fall 2005 and do not reflect all firms. (3) These were small firms only, employing 10 employees or less. 99. (1) Wage data is for employees 15 years of age and over only. (2) Occupations based on 2001 National Occupational Classification. for Statistics. (3) Occupational categories are not mutually exclusive. Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula For example, the teachers and professors category is a more detailed breakdown of occupations in social science, education, government service and religion. 100. See Endnote 99. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

88 Glossary

Census Agglomeration (CA): A census agglomeration (CA) is a Glossary small urban area with a population between 10,000 and 100,000 together with nearby urban and rural areas. The largest urban Attrition: Attrition occurs when job opportunities arise as a areas of a CA are also called “urban cores” while the nearby result of workers leaving the labour market (e.g. when workers urban and rural areas are known as “urban and rural fringes”. resign or retire). Census Metropolitan Area (CMA): A census metropolitan area Baby Boomers: Baby Boomers are people born between 1946 (CMA) is a large urban area with a population of at least 100,000 and 1966. This was a 20-year period of higher than normal people together with nearby urban and rural areas that have a Labour Market Indicators and Trends: fertility and birth rates throughout the industrialized world. high degree of social and economic dependence on this large There are currently more people who are between 40 and 60 urban centre. A city or town within a CMA or a CA is called years of age than any other age group in the population. an urban area. According to the Census, in Newfoundland and Labrador, urban areas include St. John’s, Grand Falls-Windsor, Basic Skills: The abilities to read, write, speak in English, and Gander, Corner Brook, and Labrador City. to use mathematics at a level necessary to function at work and in society in general are considered basic skills. Basic skills, Compensation: Compensation is the term used to encompass therefore, are minimum standards of literacy and numeracy. the entire range of wages and benefits that employees receive in return for their work. These benefits could be both current (e.g. Birth Rate: The birth rate is the number of babies born who live health benefits) and deferred (e.g., pensions). for every 1,000 people in the population. Demographics: Demographics are the characteristics of the Census: The Census is a count of everyone living in Canada population, such as population size, age distribution, births and including all Canadians and landed immigrants, as well as deaths, geographic location and mobility (i.e., migration).

non-permanent residents such as those who hold Ministerial PeninsulaAvalon Region permits, student authorizations or employment authorizations Earnings: Earnings are the income that workers receive in the or who claim refugee status. The Census is conducted by form of wages, salaries and self-employment. Earnings exclude Statistics Canada once every five years. It gathers comprehensive other forms of compensation such as retirement benefits, stock information on the socio-economic characteristics of the options or expense accounts. population at the community level. There are many uses for the Census results such as preparation of population estimates, Economic Growth: Economic growth is an increase in the planning for services and infrastructure, and determining the total output of an economy over a period of time. When new economic and social status of the population. Canadian citizens resources are available to produce goods and services or when who are temporarily working outside the Country, such as those more goods and service are produced with existing resources, living on a military base, attached to a diplomatic mission or economic growth takes place. New resources could be a larger aboard a merchant vessel of Canadian registry, at the time of the working age population, larger investments in infrastructure, Census are also counted. the discovery of a natural resource, or machines used to help increase current worker productivity.

89 Glossary

Economic Self-Reliance Ratio: The economic self-reliance ratio must contribute to the plan and qualify under the rules. The EI is the percentage of total income that comes from market sources program was previously named Unemployment Insurance (UI) (employment income, investment income, private pensions). program. When the self-reliance ratio is low, the dependence on transfer income (social assistance, employment insurance, old age Employment Rate: The employment rate, sometimes referred to security) is high. as the employment/population ratio, is a measure of the number of employed persons stated as a percentage of the population 15 Economy: Activities related to the production and distribution years of age or older. of goods and services in a particular geographic region is an economy. Employment Trends: Employment trends are observations about the characteristics of people who are working or looking Educational Attainment: Educational attainment is the highest for work over time. level of formal schooling an individual has achieved, such as a diploma or degree, level of work towards a diploma or degree, Expatriates: Expatriates are individuals who have moved graduation from high school or completion of a particular grade away from their native home. It is often used throughout in school. this document to refer to Expatriate Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who consider the province to be their home but Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Emerging Occupations: Emerging occupations are new jobs that have moved to other provinces throughout Canada or to other require knowledge, skills and abilities which are not defined destinations throughout the world. by current occupational coding structures such as the National Occupational Classification System. Fertility Rate: The fertility rate is the average number of children that would be born to each woman if all women lived to the end Employed: When people are employed, they either hold a of their childbearing age of 15-49 years. Within this age group, paying job or work in their own business. An employer is the there are different fertility rates for different age groups, with person or organization, such as a business, government or non- the rate of women in the younger ages higher than the rate for profit group that employs individuals to undertake the work of the older women. the organization in exchange for wages or a salary. Forecast: A forecast is a labour market or economic prediction Employment: Employment is a measure of the quantity of hired of what is likely to occur in the future. A forecast is specific and labour working in the labour market. It can be measured in has a short timeframe. It is based on an analysis of available terms of the amount of work (e.g., person-years) or the number information to predict current trends and extends these into of workers. the future. Forecasts are based on a particular set of underlying

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour assumptions and are therefore only as reliable as these Employment Insurance (EI): Employment Insurance (EI) assumptions. Short-term economic forecasts are predictions of is a federally managed program funded by employers and macroeconomic indicators for the next 1-2 years. employees. It provides temporary financial assistance to unemployed Canadians while they look for work or upgrade their skills. Canadians who are sick, pregnant or caring for a newborn or adopted child, as well as those who must care for a family member who is seriously ill with a significant risk of death, may also be assisted by Employment Insurance. Persons

90 Glossary

Globalization: In economic terms, globalization is the process Income Support: Income support refers to financial benefits of greater market integration between nations and regional individuals may receive to assist in meeting the daily trading blocs. Globalization results in capital, labour, and goods living expenses. Income support programs are delivered by and services being traded freely across national boundaries. governments, such as the Income Support program of the Currently, labour mobility is limited since many legal and Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment language barriers remain in place to slow this process. (HRLE), Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Goods-Producing Sector: The goods-producing sector of Industry: An industry is the group of establishments that the economy includes industries involved in the processing produce a common set of goods or services. For example, the Labour Market Indicators and Trends: (transformation) of material or physical objects. These industries retail trade industry includes all establishments that buy goods are often referred to as goods industries. This sector includes and resell them to the general public. agriculture; fishing; forestry; mining; oil and gas extraction; utilities; construction; and manufacturing. Knowledge-Based Economy: A knowledge-based economy is based on the development of information. It is dominated Hard-To-Fill Vacancies: Hard-to-fill vacancies are job vacancies by specialized, sophisticated industries, such as computers, that are particularly problematic for employers to fill, or that pharmaceuticals and consulting services. have been unfilled for a longer amount of time than expected. A vacancy can be hard-to-fill because there may not be enough Labour Demand: Labour demand is the quantity and quality of applicants; applicants might not have the skills that employers labour that employers require at given rates of compensation as seek; the job may offer unattractive wages, conditions and hours; part of the production of their goods and services. or the employer may be in a remote rural area. Labour Force: Labour force is the number of people aged 15 Highest Level of Education: Highest level of education refers years and older in the population who are either employed or

to the highest grade or year of elementary or secondary (high) unemployed. It does not include those who were unwilling or PeninsulaAvalon Region school attended, or the highest year of university or college unable to work (e.g., persons in institutions, retirees, students). education completed. University education is considered to be a higher level of schooling than college education. Labour Force Survey: The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a household survey carried out by Statistics Canada on a monthly Highly Skilled Occupations: Highly skilled occupations basis. It provides information on major labour market trends are those requiring a university degree as a qualification of such as shifts in employment across industrial sectors, hours employment. worked, labour force participation and unemployment rates. The LFS is the only source of monthly estimates of employment Human Resource Management: Human resource management including full-time and part-time employment, self-employment is the management policies and practices related to job training, and unemployment. recruitment and retention, benefits, and working conditions of employees in an establishment. Labour Market: Labour markets are where employees exchange their labour services with employers, who, in turn, pay for the Immigrant: An immigrant is a person who was born in another services with wages or other forms of compensation. It is where country and who has been granted the right to live in Canada employees earn a living and employers find the workers they permanently by Canadian immigration authorities (landed need to help them produce their goods and services to compete immigrant). in the economy.

91 Glossary

Labour Market Information: Labour market information (LMI) Natural Population Growth: Natural population growth is the is any information that can assist individuals and organizations change in population. It is based on the net growth, which is with labour market decisions such as those related to careers, the number of births minus the number of deaths. It does not training, education, human resource planning, investments, include the impact of migration on population change. and policy and program development. LMI can include data on employment, wages, standards, qualifications, job openings, New Entrants: New entrants are persons who are entering the working conditions and other factors related to the labour labour force in search of their first job. This includes recent market. graduates from the formal post-secondary school system, recent immigrants, and people re-entering the labour force Labour Supply: The labour supply is a measure of those who after a temporary withdrawal (e.g., child bearing or rearing, are working or are available and willing to work, and the educational leave, discouragement). amount of work that workers are willing to provide at the wage level offered by employers. Non-Wage Benefits:Non-wage benefits are an employer’s labour costs and compensation to workers that do not take the Marginal Labour Force Attachment: Marginalized workers form of wages paid for time worked. Health care benefits, dental generally include people who are not in the labour force but benefits, retirement pensions, and life insurance benefits are who may want to work, or those who currently work less than non-wage benefits.

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula the general population and who want to work more. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): Migration: Migration refers to the flow of people moving The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) to and from a region. From a provincial perspective, there provides common definitions of industrial structure. NAICS are three types of migration – international, interprovincial ensures that industrial data is suitable for the analysis of and intraprovincial migration. International migration refers production related issues such as industrial performance. to individuals moving between countries. Interprovincial NAICS replaced the 1980 Standard Industrial Classification migration refers to individuals moving between provinces. (SIC). The classification is revised on a 5-year revision cycle to Intraprovincial migration refers to individuals moving to and ensure that the classification continues to reflect the rapidly from regions within a province. changing structure of the economy.

National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2001: The National Not in the Labour Force: Persons not in the labour force are Occupational Classification system classifies occupations in the those who are unwilling or unable to offer their labour services Canadian labour market. It is used to standardize occupational under the conditions that exist in their labour markets. They are information in Canada. The NOC lists 520 occupational groups neither employed nor unemployed. that are identified by a unique four-digit number. Over 25,000 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour occupational titles are included in these groups, from very Occupation: An occupation is a collection of jobs or types of general categories to more specific. All types of jobs are divided work which share similar skills and responsibilities. Employees into nine different skill types with a separate grouping for that perform essentially the same tasks are in the same management occupations. The NOC system also classifies jobs occupation, whether or not they work in the same industry. by four skill levels that correspond to the level of education required to perform the job.

92 Glossary

Participation Rate: The participation rate is the number of Replacement Demand: Replacement demand is the need people working or looking for work as a percent of the civilian of employers to hire new employees, usually to replace non-institutional adult population (usually 15 years of age and employees that permanently leave their jobs because they over). retire. Replacement demand may also arise due to employee resignations, migration between regions or occupations and Post-Secondary Education: Post-secondary education is death. education beyond the secondary or high school level. It can be attained at universities, public colleges and private training Retirement: Retirement occurs when an individual permanently institutions. leaves his or her job or the labour market, usually by the age of Labour Market Indicators and Trends: 65 in Newfoundland and Labrador. Primary Industries: Primary industries are associated with resource extraction (obtaining or using raw materials) including Rural: Rural areas are defined by Census as those areas outside agriculture, fishing, forestry, oil and gas, and mining. the commuting zone of a Census Agglomeration (CA) or Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). They include communities lying Prime Working Age: Prime working age persons are those in outside small towns, villages, and other populated places with the population aged 25 to 54 years old. a population of less than 1,000 people. They also include small towns with a population of 1,000 to 9,999 and with a population Private Sector Employment: Private sector employment density of 400 inhabitants per square kilometer. includes all for-profit businesses and their employees as well as self-employed individuals. Rural Secretariat Region: A Rural Secretariat Region is an administrative area of Newfoundland and Labrador established Public Sector Employment: Public sector employment includes by the provincial government. There are nine Rural Secretariat employees in public administration at the federal, provincial and regions in the province. municipal levels, as well as Crown corporations, liquor control PeninsulaAvalon Region boards and other government institutions such as schools and Seasonal Employment: Seasonal employment occurs when universities, hospitals, and public libraries. people are employed for only particular seasons due to the nature of the work in a particular industry. Many resource-based Qualifications: Qualifications are measures of an individual’s industries such as the fishery and forestry are seasonal, largely competence and proficiency in a specified area of activity. due to climate. Qualifications are often used as conditions of entry to particular jobs, and sometimes as a proxy for measuring the broader Secondary Sector: The secondary sector is comprised of the concept of skills. industries that transform raw materials into goods. For example, manufacturing, construction, and utilities are secondary Real Income: Real income is income a person receives after it industries. has been adjusted for inflation. Sector: The term sector is often used to describe a grouping of industries or a grouping of occupations.

93 Glossary

Self-Employed: Self-employed workers do not work for an Standard Industrial Classification for Companies and employer, they usually work for themselves in their own Enterprises, 1980 (SIC-C): The Standard Industrial Classification businesses or in professional practices. for Companies and Enterprises is a system for classifying companies and enterprises by their activities. The SIC-C has Services-Producing Sector (Service Industries): The been replaced by the North American Industry Classification services-producing sector includes trades, transportation, System (NAICS). communications, other public utilities, finance, insurance and real estate, community organizations, health care, education, Tertiary Industries: Tertiary industries are service industries police services, personal business services, and public such as retail, health, and finance. administration. Tight Labour Market: A tight labour market is one where the Shortage of Workers: A shortage occurs in a market economy demand for labour (jobs and vacancies) is near or exceeds the when the demand for workers for a particular occupation is supply of labour (employed plus unemployed seeking work). greater than the supply of workers who are qualified, available, and willing to do that job. Under-Represented Groups: Under-represented people are population groups with long-standing patterns of high Skill: A skill is the ability to perform tasks with a specified unemployment, lower than average pay rates, and a higher than Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula degree of proficiency. Skills requirements are the specific average concentration in low status jobs. They include groups abilities, aptitudes and knowledge that are prerequisites needed such as women, aboriginal peoples, persons with disabilities, to obtain employment in an occupational group. visible minorities, older workers, youth, and newcomers.

Skill Gaps: A skill gap exists when workers are judged by their Unemployed: Unemployed is the state of being jobless and employer to not be fully proficient or when an employee feels actively searching for work. that they require more skills to perform their jobs. Unemployment Level: Unemployment level is a measure of Skill Shortages: Skill shortages occur when there is a higher those persons who are not currently employed, but who are demand for workers with a specific skill type than what exists in actively seeking and willing to work at prevailing wages and the labour market. working conditions in the labour market.

Soft Skills: Soft skills are skills that employers look for in an Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is a ratio of the employee in addition to technical skills and experience, which number of people looking for work to the total number of people enhance the employee’s ability to undertake the work required. in the labour force (or those working and looking for work).

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour They are typically skills such as teamwork, communication, problem solving ability, leadership, and customer service. They Unions: Workers are often members of unions. Unions protect can also include personal characteristics such as motivation, self- and promote the interests and improve the well-being of their confidence, punctuality and career aspiration. Many occupations members on work-related issues; with particular emphasis on require soft skills, thus numerous training courses have units wages, working conditions and employment benefits. that include soft skill development and standards.

94 Glossary

Urban: A city or town within a census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA). According to the Census, in Newfoundland and Labrador, urban areas include St. John’s, Grand Falls-Windsor, Gander, Corner Brook, and Labrador City.

Wage: A wage is usually defined as the amount of money a worker earns on an hourly basis. It is the market price paid for a unit of labour. Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Working Age: Working age persons are considered to be all people 15 years of age and older in the population.

Workplace Training: Workplace training is training undertaken by employees to assist them in acquiring specific skills they need to carry out their job duties. The training can be firm- specific (skills required only by a particular employer) or generic (applicable across most occupations or jobs). Workplace training can be provided by the employer, paid for by the individual or some combination of both. Workplace training can also be described as formal (when training occurs in a classroom-based setting or other structured format) or informal (when training occurs on the job). Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region

95 Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

96 APPENDIX A: Provincial Geographies

Appendix A: Provincial Geographies Statistics Canada Census Geographies Census data are distributed for a number of standard geographic Throughout this regional labour market report demographic and areas. These areas are administrative or statistical. While census data labour market information is reported for various geographic is produced by many different geographies, the definitions below areas. The main geographic regions used to prepare the reports deal with the main ones used in this report or for general reporting. were the nine Rural Secretariat regions throughout the province. (Statistics Canada - Catalogue No. 92-378-XIE, 2001 Census However, in order to report on indicators for areas within each Dictionary – Internet Version) Rural Secretariat region several geographies are used including Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Local Areas developed by the Newfoundland and Labrador Census Subdivisions (CSDs) Statistics Agency and standard Census geographies such as Census Divisions (CDs), Census Consolidated Subdivisions (CCSs), and Census Subdivisions (CSDs). This is a general term applied to municipalities or areas treated as municipal equivalents for statistical purposes (e.g. Indian reserves and unorganized areas). In Newfoundland and In some circumstances, information for the Rural Secretariat Labrador, there are approximately 381 CSDs, including 3 cities regions was not available. In these cases data for Labour Force (C) - St. John’s, Mount Pearl and Corner Brook; 286 towns (T); Survey economic regions has been reported where possible. 1 Indian Reserve (R) – Samiajij Miawpukek (Conne River); 1 Region (RG) – Fogo Island Region; and 90 CSDs which fall into Rural Secretariat Regions the “Unorganized” (SUN) category.

The Rural Secretariat established the Rural Secretariat regions in Census Consolidated Subdivisions (CCSs) 2005. These regions divide the province into nine areas based on patterns of activity already existing in the province. Each region The Census Consolidated Subdivision is a grouping of adjacent has two or three larger communities and a network of smaller CSDs. There are 87 CCSs in Newfoundland and Labrador. communities. (See Map 1) The nine regions are: CCSs are used throughout this report to show sub-regional PeninsulaAvalon Region breakdowns of labour market data within the Rural Secretariat • Labrador regions. See also Local Areas in this section. (See Map 1) • St. Anthony-Port au Choix Census Divisions (CDs) • Corner Brook-Rocky Harbour • Stephenville-Port aux Basques This term is generally applied to a group of neighbouring municipalities joined together for the purposes of regional • Grand Falls-Windsor-Baie Verte-Harbour Breton planning and managing common services. For example, a census • Gander-New-Wes-Valley division, may correspond to a county, or regional district. There are 10 CDs in Newfoundland and Labrador. (See Map 2) • Clarenville-Bonavista • Burin Peninsula • Avalon Peninsula

97 APPENDIX A: Provincial Geographies

Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) Census Agglomerations (CAs) or settlement must be inhabited at least six months of the year and have an estimated 1996 and 2001 Census population of at A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration least ten residents. Where possible, a settlement not meeting (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred these criteria can be included under a neighbouring community. on a large urban area. The census population count of the urban area must be at least 10,000 to form a CA and at least 100,000 to Small Area Data Preparation form a CMA. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with One of the main objectives of the Strengthening Partnerships the urban core, as measured by commuting flows derived Initiative is to enhance the supply of regional labour market from census place of work data. CMAs and CAs are generally indicators available to stakeholders and to build capacity considered to be urban areas, while non CMA/CA areas are to produce indicators at “user defined” levels of geography considered to be rural areas. throughout the province. In order to meet this objective, the Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment There are 4 CAs (Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor, Corner partnered with the Social and Economic Spatial Analysis Brook and Labrador City) and 1 CMA (St. John’s CMA) in Unit of the Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency, Newfoundland and Labrador. Department of Finance to produce small area data estimates. Using custom census data for 87 CCSs and approximately 100

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Other Geographies CSDs, estimates of labour market indicators have been produced for approximately 600 communities throughout the province, Labour Force Survey Economic Regions spanning 25 years of economic activity (1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses). Data from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey is available for four economic regions in the province. (See Map 3)

Local Areas

Local Area data is presented to show sub-regional breakdowns throughout the report. Local Areas are based on Census Consolidated Subdivisions and postal codes. The Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency naming convention was used to label the Local Areas when presenting the data. (See Map 4)

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour Community

Generally, the definition of community used throughout this report is a city, town, village, Indian reserve or in some cases a cluster of five or more dwellings (i.e., a settlement) which is locally known by a specific name, but lacking legal limits or local government. To be defined a community, village, Indian reserve,

98 APPENDIX A: Provincial Geographies

Map 1: Rural Secretariat Regions and Census Consolidated Subdivisions in Newfoundland and Labrador

10E 10E

Consolidated Census Subdivisions by Consolidated Census Subdivisions by Rural Secretariat Region 10E Rural Secretariat Region Labrador Newfoundland Consolidated Census Subdivisions Consolidated Census Subdivisions Rural Secretariat Region Rural Secretariat Region Labrador Region Labrador Region

St. Anthony - Port au Choix Region St. Anthony - Port au Choix Region Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour Region Corner Brook - Rocky Harbour Region

Stephenville - Port aux Basques Region Stephenville - Port aux Basques Region

Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Breton Region 10B Grand Falls-Windsor - Baie Verte - Harbour Breton Region 10C Gander - New-Wes-Valley Region Gander - New-Wes-Valley Region

Clarenville - Bonavista Region Clarenville - Bonavista Region

Burin Peninsula Region Burin Peninsula Region

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Region

10A

Insert

09D

01G 09C 01F

0 30 60 120 01H Kilometers 09F 01E 09G 01I 10E R 1 0 01J

K 1 0 09H

01Y 01LMN 01Z Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region 01O 08H 0 25 50 100 08O 08I 01X 05G 08N 08A 08D Kilometers 08P

09A 08C 08M 08E 05E 08FG 08L 07A

10D 05D 07B 05F 05D 05A 06C

06E 05C 07N 07G 04D 06A 06D 07I 10B 07J 04E 07D 10C 07F 04C 07E 07K 03D 07L

04B 02K 07M

03A 04A 03F 02KL 03E 02J 03I 03C 10A 03J 03H 02C 01A 01Z 03B

02I 01X 09D 01B

01W 01U 09C 02DE 02H 01C 02G 02F 01V

09F Department of Finance 09G Department of Finance Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency October 12, 2006 Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency October 12, 2006

99 APPENDIX A: Provincial Geographies

Map 2: Census Divisions in Newfoundland and Labrador

Census Divisions Newfoundland & Labrador

Legend CD 01 Avalon Peninsula CD 02 Burin Peninsula CD 03 South Coast CD 04 St. George's CD 05 Humber District CD 06 Central CD 07 Bonavista / Trinity CD 08 Notre Dame Bay CD 09 Northern Peninsula CD 10 Labrador

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula 0 100 200

Kilometers

Labrador City ! ! Happy Valley - Goose Bay

! St. Anthony

8 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour 5 !Gander ! Corner Brook ! Grand Falls- 6 Windsor ! e 7 vill Clarenville en ! Steph 4 3 2 ! St. John's ! Channel - Port aux Basques 1 ! Burin Department of Finance Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency

100 APPENDIX A: Provincial Geographies

Map 3: Labour Force Survey Economic Regions in Newfoundland and Labrador

Labour Force Survey Economic Regions Newfoundland & Labrador Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

LEGEND

1010 Avalon Peninsula 1020 South Coast - Burin Peninsula 1030 West Coast - Northern Peninsula - Labrador 1040 Notre Dame - Central Bonavista Bay

0 100 200

Kilometers

1030

Labrador City Happy Valley - Goose Bay Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region

St. Anthony

1030

Grand Falls- Gander Corner Windsor Brook 1040 03 ille env Clarenville Steph 1020 St. John’s

Channel - Harbour Breton Port aux Basques 1010

Burin

Department of Finance Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency BF0102

101 APPENDIX A: Provincial Geographies

Map 4: Local Areas in Avalon Peninsula Region

y a B n o ti p e - c n a n a e o c r li C r A f e n o P to e r r w e o e t h n N i S W th r o N r nea rbo a Ca e ea r Ar A t h Harbour g d li Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula Grace Area n e la D Spaniard's Is 's ll n t Bay Area r e o St. John's a s B l rt Bay Roberts a e e H b v o a ea A R re r a y A A t re a ch s A B a e e a rn B e u 's o ke h itb r t h la r W C o Head of N Conception Bay

Placentia a St. Mary's Bay e e r r o A h S 's e n r id r e h B t . u t o S - S Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour ia t n e c la P Trepassey Bay

Trepassey 0 5 10 20

Kilometers Department of Finance Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency October 12, 2006

102 APPENDIX B: Labour Market Information Sources

Appendix B: Labour Market Information New Research: HRLE has initiated new research to better understand the commuting patterns and characteristics of Sources workers in the province who travel between communities for work. Preliminary information from this research, including In order to ensure that only the most current, reliable and new workflow maps, have been included within the report. relevant information was included in this report it was necessary to draw upon a wide variety of existing and new sources. While Regional Labour Market Information Workshops: HRLE there are many existing sources that provide labour market conducted 12 regional labour market information workshops information for the province, there is no single source that throughout the province in Fall 2005 as a key activity under the Labour Market Indicators and Trends: collects and reports data for the range of indicators presented Strengthening Partnerships in the Labour Market Initiative. In and very few that collect and report data on regional labour total, over 250 people representing 130 different organizations markets. Furthermore, there are limitations associated with each participated in the workshops. The workshops provided a information source, such as the timeliness of the information critical opportunity to share some of the labour market data available from the Census and the reliability of the regional used in the regional reports and seek the experience and information available from the Labour Force Survey. expertise of those who live and work in the regions to help validate the findings. Feedback provided by participants during All available sources were exhausted in the preparation of this the workshops was also taken into account in the development report to help ensure the most recent and reliable information of this report. A summary of participants’ feedback is provided has been included. Due to the variety of sources used to help in What We Heard: A Summary of Regional Perspectives on Labour achieve this objective, there are differences in the time periods, Market Trends in Newfoundland and Labrador (HRLE, Summer regional boundaries and definitions described throughout the 2006). report. An Overview of Current Labour Market Information Sources The main information sources used in the report include: Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region Labour Force Survey Customized Data: Customized data from the Census (1991-2001) were the primary source of information used in this report The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a monthly survey conducted as it is the most reliable source for detailed labour market by Statistics Canada. The LFS provides monthly estimates information in Canada. Other data sources used include of employment and unemployment which are among the the Labour Force Survey (1990-2005), the Business Register most timely and important indicators used to measure the (1998-2004), Taxfiler Data (1990-2004); and a combination of performance of the Canadian economy for the purposes of population data from Statistics Canada’s Demography Division managing growth, counter-cyclical, and anti-inflationary and Newfoundland and Labrador Population Projections (to policies. 2021) from the Department of Finance. When necessary, data were also used from existing research and other provincial The LFS estimates are the first of the major monthly economic government departments, including the Social and Economic data series to be released. It is for this reason that it has become Spatial Analysis Unit and Newfoundland and Labrador one of the most commonly used sources of labour market Statistics Agency (Department of Finance) and the Department information. Estimates are produced for Canada, the provinces of Human Resources, Labour and Employment. and sub-provincial regions, using a sample of the population.

103 APPENDIX B: Labour Market Information Sources

In Newfoundland and Labrador, only 2,000 households are Small Area Estimation: Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics surveyed each month for the LFS. Due to this small sample size, Agency, Department of Finance data for sub-provincial labour markets or for more detailed analyses is not available or is not reliable. One of the main objectives of the Strengthening Partnerships Initiative is to enhance the supply of regional labour market Canadian Census of the Population indicators available to stakeholders and to build capacity to produce indicators at “user defined” levels of geography Statistics Canada conducts a census of the population every five throughout the province. In order to meet this objective, the years to provide a historical perspective on how communities Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment change and how the country evolves over time. The most recent partnered with the Social and Economic Spatial Analysis Census was conducted in May 2006. Unit of the Department of Finance to produce small area data estimates for communities from custom Census data tabulations. The Census is designed to provide information about the Using Census data for 87 CCSs and approximately 100 CSDs, demographic, social and economic characteristics of the estimates of labour market indicators have been produced Canadian population. The Census also provides this information for approximately 600 communities throughout the province, for small geographic areas and for small population groups to spanning 5 Censuses (1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001) and 25 support the activities of governments at all levels, as well as the years of economic activity. Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula activities of data users in the private sector. Statistics Canada Business Register The Census is one of the most reliable sources of labour market information in the country. The Census collects information The Business Register is a repository of information reflecting about all residents in this province; however, a longer survey the Canadian business population and exists primarily for is administered to a sample of 20 per cent of the population to the purpose of supplying frames for all economic surveys collect more detailed information about labour market activities in Statistics Canada. It also serves as a data source for the and other selected topics. Relative to other surveys, the Census compilation of business demographic information (e.g., provides much more detailed regional occupational and number of businesses, employment size). The major sources industrial information and a broader scope of labour market of information for the Business Register are updates from the indicators in general. Statistics Canada survey program and from Canada Revenue Agency’s (CRA) Business Number account files. Included in the However, the Census is limited as a primary source for Business Register are all Canadian businesses which have one or monitoring labour market activity because it is conducted only more establishments and meet at least one of the three following once every five years. There is also a considerable lag between criteria: (1) have an employee workforce for which they submit payroll remittances to CRA; or (2) have a minimum of $30,000 in

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour when Census labour market data is collected and when it is available for analysis. For example, throughout these profiles, annual sales revenue; or (3) are incorporated under a federal or the 2001 Census was the source for the latest labour market. provincial act and have filed a federal corporate income tax form Data from the 2006 Census will not become available until 2008 within the past three years. at the earliest.

104 APPENDIX B: Labour Market Information Sources

Taxfiler Data

From the income tax forms submitted each year by Canadians, the Small Area and Administrative Data Division of Statistics Canada produces a wealth of economic and demographic information for use by both the private and public sectors. Each year, the Division examines and processes over 22 million tax and other administrative records in an effort to offer clients the most reliable information possible. The data are highly accurate Labour Market Indicators and Trends: as they are a direct count from the tax file – not a sample. The file contains 100 per cent of all taxfilers and the data cover approximately 96 per cent of all Canadians.

Data are currently available from 1990 to 2004 and are updated on an annual basis in order to provide some of the timeliest sources of economic and demographic information available.

Newfoundland and Labrador Population Projections

The Economics and Statistics Branch in the Department of Finance prepares 15-year population projections for Newfoundland and Labrador on an annual basis. The current projections extend to 2021 and are available by 5-year age

groups for the province and various sub-provincial regions. PeninsulaAvalon Region

The projections are prepared using data from the Demography Division of Statistics Canada and the Population Projection System known as POPPS, and are based on three economic/ demographic scenarios with high, medium and low probabilities – the medium scenario has been used throughout this profile. The demographic assumptions for the medium scenario around fertility, mortality and migration are available on the following web site: www.economics.gov.nl.ca.

Regional population projections were developed in conjunction with a series of regional consultations that commenced in April 2000. The consultations covered all economic and social regions/ zones. Virtually all of the social sectors were represented and many of the economic sectors. Furthermore, all levels of government (federal, provincial and municipal) as well as youth were represented in the consultations.

105 APPENDIX C: Figures for the St. John's CMA Appendix C: Figures for the St. John’s CMA Population Pyramid, St. John’s CMA, 2006 Labour Force by Gender, St. John’s CMA, 1987 to 2005 (Annual Average) Age 2006 Females 2006 Males

90 + Both Sexes Females Males

120,000 80 - 84

70 - 74 100,000 60 - 64

80,000 50 - 54

40 - 44 60,000 30 - 34

20 - 24 40,000 10 - 14

20,000

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula 0 - 4

-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 0 Population 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Population Pyramid, St. John’s CMA, 1991 Population Pyramid, St. John’s CMA, 2021

Age 1991 Females 1991 Males Age 2021 Females 2021 Males 90 + 90 +

80 - 84 80 - 84

70 - 74 70 - 74

60 - 64 60 - 64

50 - 54 50 - 54

Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour 40 - 44 40 - 44 30 - 34 30 - 34 20 - 24 20 - 24 10 - 14 10 - 14 0 - 4 0 - 4 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 Population Population

106 APPENDIX C: Figures for the St. John's CMA

Ratio of Younger Workers (15-24 Years) for Every Potential Retiree Number of Taxfilers with Employment Income, St. John’s CMA, (55-64 Years), St. John’s CMA, 1991 to 2021 1990 to 2004

15-24 Year Olds 55-64 Year Olds 98,000 96,960

30,000

92,000 Labour Market Indicators and Trends:

20,000

86,265

86,000 10,000

80,000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Distribution of Firms by Number of Employees, St. John’s CMA and Participation Rates (15+ Years), 1997 to 2005 (Annual Average) NL, 2004 Avalon PeninsulaAvalon Region St. John's CMA Province Canada 80% Newfoundland and Labrador St. John's CMA 70% 60.1% 67.2% 60% 64.8% 52.0% 65.9% 64.1% 58.8% 40% 32.4% 28.6% 50% 52.5%

20% 12.6% 9.4%

2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0% 1 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 99 100 to 499 500 + 30% # of Employees 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

107 APPENDIX C: Figures for the St. John's CMA

Unemployment Rates (15+ Years), 1997 to 2005 (Annual Average)

Canada Newfoundland and Labrador St. John's CMA

20%

18.4% 15.2%

13.6% 10% 8.9% 9.1% 6.8%

Avalon Peninsula Region Avalon Peninsula 0% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Average Weekly Wages (Real vs. Nominal), St. John’s CMA, 1997 to 2005

Nominal Real

650 $638 $614 $607 $599 $586

$531 $514 $512 $510 $512 $510 $509 $507 $494 500 $475 $472 $463 $469 Labour Market Indicators and Trends: Market Indicators and Trends: Labour

350

200 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

108