Shocks and Disruptions The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

By George Grant

Foreword by the Rt Hon Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP 1 Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

Contents

FOREWORD 5

About the Author Message from the Crop Protection Association 6 George Grant is a Research Fellow at The Henry the Daily Telegraph, the Guardian and the Wall EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 Jackson Society, which he joined in October Street Journal Europe, and regularly appears on 2009. George has written extensively for HJS TV and radio news outlets including the BBC, Al INTRODUCTION 14 on a wide range of issues relating to British Jazeera, Channel 4 News and Sky News. foreign policy and international relations, with A frequent speaker on foreign policy and WHY FOOD SECURITY MATTERS 17 major recent publications including “Succeeding defence issues, George has given briefings to Food Security and the economy 17 in Afghanistan” (September 2010) and “The senior officials at the Foreign & Commonwealth Tipping Point: British National Strategy and FOOD SECURITY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION 20 Office, the Ministry ofD efence, the Stabilisation the UK’s Future World Role” (July 2011). Since FOOD SECURITY AND CONFLICT 26 Unit and lecturers at the Royal Military February 2011, George has worked closely Academy, Sandhurst. George has an MA (Hons) THE IMPACT OF SHOCKS AND DISRUPTIONS ON THE UK FOOD CHAIN 28 on the conflict in Libya and the country’s in History from the University of Edinburgh, and subsequent efforts towards democratic an MA (Dist.) in Investigative Journalism from CRITICAL AREAS FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION 32 transition. He writes frequently for mainstream City University, London. BIOFUEL TARGETS 32 national and international newspapers including eu REGULATION OF CROP PROTECTION PRODUCTS 33 eu REGULATION OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISMS 34 Acknowledgements eu AGRICULTURAL TARIFFS AND EXPORT REFUNDS 35 I owe a debt of thanks to a large number of Food Security and Nutrition at the United THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY (CAP) 37 people for their contributions to the production Nations; Martin Howarth – Head of Policy at the uK AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (R&D) 38 of this report. First, I should like to thank Edward National Farmers Union; and Tristram Stuart, THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD SECURITY, 41 Winfield, Diana Murguia and David Goodstone whose expertise on the issue of food waste are who, whilst Research Assistants at The Henry unsurpassed. I wish to extend particular thanks FOREIGN POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY Jackson Society (HJS), provided excellent to Sir David Omand, the UK’s first Security and FOOD WASTE 42 research support. I must also thank HJS’s Intelligence Coordinator at the Cabinet Office, eMERGENCY FOOD RESERVES 44 Political Director, Davis Lewin, and of course our whose contributions overall, but in particular to uK FOOD-CHAIN RESILIENCE 46 Executive Director, Dr Alan Mendoza, without the sections of this report dealing withU K food- whom this project would not have come about. chain resilience and security, were invaluable. CONCLUSION 51 My thanks also to Raheem Kassam, from The I am also deeply honoured that Sir Malcolm Henry Jackson Society, and Shimon Speigel, Rifkind, one of the most distinguished politicians END NOTES 53 from Genium Design, for their help in designing serving in the United Kingdom today, agreed to the report. I also wish to thank all those who write the Foreword to this report; it has only BIBLIOGRAPHY 62 gave of their time to provide me with interviews been enhanced by that contribution. Finally, my for the report, including Sir Brian Bender, Mike thanks go to the Crop Protection Association ABOUT THE HENRY JACKSON SOCIETY 70 Rowe and Professor Bob Watson, the former for commissioning this report, and in particular having served and the latter two continuing to to Dominic Dyer and Daniel Pearsall, without ABOUT THE CROP PROTECTION ASSOCIATION 70 serve with distinction at the Department for whose support this publication would not have Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Likewise been possible. It only remains for me to say that my thanks to Dr David Nabarro – Special any errors or omissions contained within this Representative of the Secretary General for publication are mine alone.

2 3 Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

Foreword Sir Malcolm Rifkind

Food is one of mankind’s most basic fragility of the world’s food production needs, and inadequate provision is base, and the precarious balance a tragedy for hundreds of millions of between supply and demand. Rising people living in the developing world. prices have an effect on the health of Yet the importance of the world’s food the UK economy, as well as political supply extends far beyond the threat stability in foreign countries. As the Arab of shortages, hunger and poverty. The Spring has demonstrated, countries availability and cost of food affects that are economically weak are acutely many areas of domestic policy, as well as vulnerable to fluctuations in cost. national and international security. This report also makes an important This wide-ranging and comprehensive evaluation of the domestic agricultural report attempts to address the challenges sector, and the security of the UK’s food that flow from a supply chain that is supply. While the UK and Europe are under increasing pressure. Chief among world leaders in production, the food them is the need to increase agricultural chain resilience must be kept under productivity, reduce food waste, and constant review in an age of ‘just-in- improve distribution networks. Such time’ delivery models. steps must be prioritised if production is to keep pace with the demands of a The Crop Protection Association is to world population set to exceed 9 billion be congratulated for commissioning a by 2050. thought-provoking study, and George Grant of The Henry Jackson Society Consideration is also given to the should be commended for producing a increasing cost of food. Recent spikes readable and timely evaluation of this in commodity prices have exposed the topic.

5 Message from the Crop Protection Association

At a time of heightened concern over the from human conflict and civil unrest to combined impact of population growth trade disruption, mass migration and the and climate change on food prices and threat of agro-terrorism. availability, this groundbreaking report by The Henry Jackson Society highlights the The report singles out the EU as one of the very serious risks – in socio-economic, world’s major food producing economies, geo-political and humanitarian terms – of with significant capacity to influence global failing to tackle the global challenge of food prices and availability, but warns that food security. Europe’s leaders are at risk of sleepwalking into a food crisis unless current policies to The immediate economic consequences restrict production-boosting agricultural of food insecurity are well-documented. technologies are reversed. In the industrialised world, higher food prices would lead to increased pressure Innovation in plant science, for example, on disposable incomes with damaging from agricultural biotechnology to novel impacts on the wider economy, while crop protection products, offers major consumers on lower incomes would opportunities for Europe’s farmers to also suffer a reduction in the health deliver sustainable gains in agricultural benefits associated with a wide choice of productivity. Yet such advances are affordable fresh fruit and vegetables. In discouraged by an antiscience EU policy developing countries, food shortages and agenda. higher commodity prices would threaten The Crop Protection Association is the pace of development and lead to pleased to support this report as an increased hunger and malnutrition in the important contribution to the food world’s poorest regions. security debate. Above all, we welcome Central to the report’s economic the report’s clear message to policy- conclusions is a clear signal that access to makers of the urgent need to embrace the most advanced farming technologies developments in agricultural science and will be needed to ensure global innovation, not only to stave off global food production can keep pace with hunger and economic hardship, but also burgeoning demand, while keeping the to mitigate the threat of food-related lid on food price inflation and providing terror, war and human suffering. the raw materials to safeguard jobs, growth and wealth creation within the rest of the food chain. But in examining the relationship between food and national security, this report also highlights the wider, devastating consequences which can be Dominic Dyer. Chief Executive, linked to disruptions in global food supply, Crop Protection Association

6 7 Executive Summary Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

in developing countries which depend Executive Summary on the European agricultural market, and are consequently denied access to technologies that could protect crops and enhance yields. WHY FOOD SECURITY MATTERS Food Security and Conflict The relationship between food security The UK government has estimated that Food-price inflation also represents a The Impact of Shocks and by 2050 the world will need to produce significant threat to the economic health and conflict is significant. There are currently 60 countries in the world Disruptions on the UK Food 70 per cent more food than it does today. of major emerging economies such as Chain This will put considerable pressure on China and India, with the potential to ranked as having an “Extreme” or “High Risk” of food-related insecurity, with The government has assessed the UK’s already strained agricultural resources. slow economic growth internationally. food security as high. The size and The UK has a key role to play in addressing the majority of these countries located However, food security also matters for in underdeveloped regions where diversity of the UK food industry makes the challenge, both independently and it relatively resilient to disruptions a range of reasons other than ensuring in concert with its European partners. economic and political breakdown is that the world’s population has enough advanced. that could cause lasting damage. to eat. These include: Food Security and the European Nonetheless, the physical openness of Union In 2008-09, food insecurity contributed the UK food-chain makes it vulnerable The impact of rising food prices to revolutions that deposed the to targeted shocks, be they natural, The European Union (EU) is the world’s governments of Haiti and Madagascar on UK and global economic third largest producer of cereals and the accidental or malicious. growth and cost dozens of lives. In Darfur, second largest producer of livestock. The food and water-related conflict has left It is also important to note that the Between July 2010 and July 2011, import and export value of European 500,000 people dead and generated 2 UK’s food self-sufficiency has steadily the average UK food bill went up by agricultural products remains the million environmental refugees. declined over the past three decades. 5.2 per cent. The Food & Agriculture highest in the world. As a leading force In 2010, the UK produced just 52 per Organisation has predicted that global in the formulation of global agricultural Most recently, food insecurity has been cent of the food consumed, and had a food prices will rise by an additional 20 policy, the EU retains the capacity to identified as a contributory factor to self-sufficiency ratio of 60 per cent. In per cent by 2020. Rising food prices will influence global food prices. the uprisings that have swept across 1984, the UK’s self-sufficiency ratio was reduce the amount consumers spend in the Middle East and North Africa. For 78 per cent, its peak following a steady other sectors of the economy, further European agricultural policy in areas a globalised trading nation such as such as the production of biofuels or the recovery in the years following the threatening an already-halting economic the UK, conflicts overseas can and do Second World War. recovery. regulation of genetically modified (GM) jeopardise British interests, disrupting food does not just impact on European trade, creating refugees and incurring In the past two decades, the UK has An additional concern is that consumers consumers, but also on consumers expensive post-conflict reconstruction. suffered several shocks to its food chain respond to rising prices by compromising well beyond Europe’s borders. Biofuel Moreover, the conflict in Libya has which between them have cost the on the quality of food they buy. targets have been linked to global food demonstrated that food insecurity - British economy £15 billion and directly Low-income households already spend price inflation and represent a real even when indirect - can contribute to led to the loss of 630 lives. an average of 15.8 per cent of their threat to global food security. Strict developments that result in a British The Centre for the Protection of National income of food, and rising food prices prohibitions on the cultivation and military response. will make it more difficult to maintain import of GM foods inside Europe are Infrastructure (CPNI), along with a healthy diets. working against the interests of farmers number of other industry-experts, has

8 9 Executive Summary Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security warned that the UK food-chain is also the fact that vetting procedures for farm but data from the International Service (WTO) have stalled since 2008 and it vulnerable to agro-terrorist attacks. The workers are almost non-existent, make for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech is difficult to see how a balanced and physical openness of most farmyards; the food-chain potentially vulnerable to Applications I ( SAAA) has concluded equitable reduction of tariffs will be the concentrated and intensive nature attack. that GMOs have generated significant achieved at the global level until those of contemporary farming practices and environmental and economic benefits efforts resume. This also applies to the over the past decade-and-a-half. elimination of export refunds, although CRITICAL AREAS FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION the EU has reduced these significantly in In spite of this, the EU’s approach to GMO recent years. regulation is driven as much by politics In order to mitigate these risks and Regulation of crop protection products and perception as by empirical scientific The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) improve both national and global food is very important, particularly where evidence. The UK government’s official Although itself a form of agricultural security, the following areas should be stance is that GMO regulation should afforded serious further consideration: protectionism, theC ommon Agricultural be a science not politics-led process. Policy (CAP) should not be scrapped. The government should therefore work Biofuel targets Instead, the CAP must be orientated with likeminded EU member states to decisively towards maximising Over the next decade, the international reform the approvals process to bring production and eliminating the drive to meet biofuel targets could inflate GMO regulation in line with the available subsidisation of waste. Ensuring that food prices by as much as 40 per cent. scientific evidence and enhance global the UK farming industry can continue In its assessment of the 2007-08 food food security. to provide for the British people is a price spike, which saw global food prices strategic sine qua non. rise by 63 per cent, the UK government Agricultural Tariffs & Export concluded that the diversion of Refunds Certain objectives contained within the agricultural land to biofuel production Agricultural protectionism has long been latest CAP reform proposal for 2013 was a significant contributory factor. a contributing factor to high global food should be supported, including doubling prices and food insecurity. When Russia, the budget for agricultural research If biofuel targets are not to be scrapped the world’s third largest wheat exporter, and innovation, and facilitating the altogether, they should at least be more imposed a grain export ban in August development of young farmers. flexible, with one possibility being to 2010, the result was a surge in global specify a relationship between the Food they pose a risk to human health or wheat prices, which drove up global Other proposed measures should be Price Index (FPI) and the diversion of the environment. However, current food prices by 5 per cent. When Russia abandoned, in particular the efforts biofuel feedstocks back into the food regulation is driven by perception of lifted the embargo in May 2011, wheat to reintroduce Set-aside, this time for chain. hazard, rather than scientific evidence of prices dropped almost immediately by 5 ecological purposes, and a proposal to risk. The EU needs to revisit its regulation per cent. make 30 per cent of direct support to EU Regulation of Crop Protection farmers contingent upon mandatory Products of crop protection products to ensure that regulations in this area are science Agricultural tariffs in the EU are on environmental criteria. The EU is right Crop protection products are vital to based, enabling and proportionate. average three times higher than the to maintain environmental regulations, guarding crops from the pests and average across industrial goods, and but the CAP should not be one of them. disease that currently account for an EU Regulation of Genetically certain key commodities are protected estimated 40 per cent loss in the global Modified Organisms (GMOs) by tariffs of over 70 per cent. UK Research & Development (R&D) production of food.D espite this fact, the For many years, European public opinion When the Green Revolution transformed EU is committed to reducing the use of Unfortunately, efforts to globally reduce global agriculture 50 years ago, it did so has been suspicious of GMOs and the tariffs at the World Trade Organisation crop protection products, a policy that is risks they could pose to human health. hurting farmers and having an adverse However, recent studies by both the impact on crop yields and prices. The Royal Society of Medicine and the government’s Chemicals Regulation European Commission Directorate- Directorate has estimated that the EU’s General for Research indicate that GMOs latest pesticide directive could cut crop have been consumed by millions of yields by as much as 20 per cent. people worldwide for over 15 years with no reports of ill-effects. Not only that,

10 11 Executive Summary Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

government needs to support efforts just after one has hit. to improve physical infrastructure, as well as help increase the availability of An initiative currently being trialled in much-needed agricultural technologies. West Africa in response to the 2007-08 Addressing governance deficiencies that food price spike could serve as a useful perpetuate these failures in the first model. Rather than distributing food place is crucial. as disaster-relief, this proposal involves holding reserves of food that can be In the developed world, most waste purchased by eligible states at the lower occurs after food reaches the marketplace. end of the food price index in the event The main problem is behavioural, and of sudden price rises or fluctuations. awareness campaigns to change attitudes have a part to play. However, the impact UK Food-Chain Resilience with innovation and technology, not practical constraints, not least the need of such initiatives will always be limited Although UK food security is assessed through the cultivation of significant to minimise food price rises mean that compared to changing economic as high, the food chain is vulnerable and quantities of new land. Over the next this cannot be the whole solution. incentives, which represent the most measures to increase resilience should 50 years, the world will need a second influential drivers of change. be encouraged. Broadly, there are three Perhaps the most significant cause levels of resilience: First, identification Green Revolution, with demographic of food insecurity and lack of access The UK should also improve in and environmental constraints meaning of potential threats and development of to food is poor governance and state making use of that food which would contingency plans; second, investment that there will be even less new land failure. The world’s hungriest states are otherwise be wasted. Food banks, which available for cultivation this time. in community resilience to respond to also amongst its worst governed. It is redistribute retailer food waste to those those shocks that are not foreseen or However, since the mid-1980s, the UK no coincidence that Israel has the same in need, are one example. However, the prevented; third, “adaptive resilience”, government has reduced its support for level of food security as Portugal and EU also needs to revisit legislation which which involves drawing on past agricultural research and development, Spain, but just half the annual rainfall of prohibits the majority of food waste experience when upgrading or replacing and agricultural productivity has Ethiopia. being fed to livestock. physical infrastructure and logistics suffered accordingly. Not only have total Although UK agricultural development Emergency Food Reserves networks. productivity increases declined relative assistance can and does save lives in the Internationally, food reserves are in The Centre for the Protection of to other leading European countries, short-term, in the long-term it will fail if there are fewer scientists involved in decline, and in recent decades have National Infrastructure (CPNI) has not accompanied by concomitant efforts tended towards an increased reliance produced extensive advice for the food agricultural research, and those who to improve governance and security remain are getting older. on imports from global markets to industry on how to minimise the threat in countries of concern—goals which meet food needs. In 2010-11 alone, of disruption to their services. These The UK government must recognise that must be reflected in theU K’s foreign and global cereal stocks declined from 534 recommendations are only advisory in retaining its status as a world-leader in development policies. to 490 million tonnes. Objections to nature, however, and available research innovative research is important not just Food Waste national food reserves are that they suggests the food industry prefers to for UK food security, but also in light of distort market prices and are expensive operate on a ‘just-in-time’ as opposed to Across both the developed and the relative decline of a number of other to maintain. The UK does not currently a ‘just-in-case’ basis. developing worlds, some 30-50 per cent sectors of the economy. hold any food reserves of its own. of all food produced is never consumed. The government should enhance efforts The Relationship between Food The World Food Programme (WFP) to raise awareness of the importance In the developing world, most food is Security, Foreign Policy and possesses limited grain reserves, and of resilience amongst the agricultural wasted before it reaches the consumer. Development Policy the WFP estimates it feeds more than 90 industry, and consider both financial and Inadequate anti-pest safeguards such million people every year. Institutionally, legal measures to improve and support It has been estimated that the world as proper silos account for significant however, the organisation is reactive, compliance. Any reforms must achieve already grows enough food to feed loss, whilst poor road infrastructure not proactive. The WFP needs reform a balance between increasing resilience 11.5 billion people. The problem is and lack of proper refrigeration leads to to enable it to adopt a more forward- and ensuring the competitiveness of the that whilst some people have more goods spoiling whilst in transit. Adverse looking approach, where action can be UK food industry. than enough, others have far too little. weather conditions and disease can taken in anticipation of a crisis, and not Improving distribution is important, but also have a significant impact. The

12 13 Introduction Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

Introduction

Billions ! Global Populaon Growth Over the past three decades, Western with climactic changes themselves nations have not struggled to feed contributing to growing food insecurity Least developed naons Developing naons themselves. On the contrary, at least in many parts of the world. According to insofar as feeding Westerners is the UK government’s Foresight report Developed naons concerned, they have produced too on Global Food and Farming Futures,  much. For much of the rest of history, in order to adequately meet rising and still in many developing countries demand, the world will need to produce  today, the opposite has been the case. 70 per cent more food by 2050 than it There are two primary causes for people does now.1  going hungry. The first of these is when demand outstrips supply; when there  are more mouths to feed than there is food available to feed them. The second  is when the means of distribution fail;  when food enough exists, but it does not reach those who need it.i ! ! !  !  !!      

Over the coming decades mankind is Source : FAO going to be confronted by both these challenges in a major way. Between 2012 and 2050 the world’s population For significant numbers of people across mid-1980s. In 2010, the UK produced just is expected to increase from seven the developing world, food security 52 per cent of the total amount of food billion to nine billion, a rise of more remains a day-to-day issue of life or it consumed, and had a self-sufficiency than 140,000 people per day. Not only death. Although that is not the case ratio of 60 per centii.3 In 1984, the UK’s will farmers need to grow more food, for British citizens living in the United self-sufficiency ratio hit a peak of 78 per they will need to do so in a sustainable Kingdom, there are nonetheless a cent, following a steady recovery in the way at less cost to the environment, number of other ways that food security years following the Second World War.4 can and does impact on the UK and its This demonstrates the complacency with interests. which policymakers have viewed food security in the UK, which has increased i. The most well-known of all expositions on the first of these According to current figures, the UK two problems is An Essay on the Principles of Population, This task will be further complicated by the country’s vulnerability to shocks and th is one of the few developed countries penned by the 18 century English scholar, the Reverend a number of additional and inter-related fluctuations in a highly uncertain global Thomas Malthus, in 1798. In his essay, Malthus famously with a population that is expected to food market. predicted that periodic starvations must necessarily occur challenges, including an expanding expand significantly over the next few because “the power of population is indefinitely greater demand for more resource-intensive decades. According to the US Population The days when the UK and Europe than the power in the earth to produce subsistence to man”. food; rising energy prices; slowing Reference Bureau, the UK population is produced too much to eat, to the point Perhaps the most famous proponent of the second problem growth of yields; policies driving growing - that of distribution failures as the primary challenge to be predicted to grow to 77 million people by where policymakers paid farmers not overcome - is the Nobel Prize-winning Indian economist, demand for biofuels; a potential failure 2050, from 62.2 million now, surpassing to produce food, are gone. For some Amartya Sen. In his essay Poverty and Famines, published in to exploit agricultural technologies France and Germany to become the 30 years, between the mid-1970s 1998, Sen argued that policy decisions have a greater role such as crop protection products and most populous country in Europe.2 At in causing mass starvation than food shortages. Citing the genetically modified organisms (GMOs); 1943 Bengal famine, in which three million died, Sen pointed the same time, the UK is becoming out that food was actually being exported throughout this crop shortfalls from natural disasters; increasingly dependent upon food ii. The difference between the amount the UK produces as a proportion of what it consumes, and overall self- period. What really caused the famine was a lack of access, increasing land and water scarcity; and imports, with UK food self-sufficiency be that in terms of affordability or physical access to food. protectionist policies that restrict supply sufficiency, is that the latter includes food produced for continuing the decline that began in the export which could be diverted to domestic use should the and drive up the price of food. need arise.

14 15 Introduction Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security and the mid-2000s, the price of food poorest people have enough to eat. The steadily declined.5 The industrialised purpose of this report is to highlight Why Food Security Matters world literally reaped the benefits of some of the other key reasons why food technological advances made during security represents one of the most the so-called Green Revolution, turning significant challenges of our time. Malthusian predictions that food FOOD SECURITY AND THE ECONOMY production could never keep pace with The report is divided into two sections. population growth on their head. That Section one deals with some of the primary reasons why food security Impact of Rising Food Prices on UK UK went up by 5.2 per cent, as average changed abruptly in 2007 with the onset Economic Growth household incomes stagnated.10 If food of a price-spike that saw food prices matters, including: One of the most serious corollaries of prices were to rise by an additional 20 rise by more than 63 per cent in just 18 • The impact of rising food prices on UK per cent, as the FAO has predicted will months. These prices briefly dropped the increased pressures on the world’s and global economic growth; food supplies is rising prices. Inevitably, occur, this would put significant extra back to pre-2007 levels in the latter half strain on already squeezed budgets. of 2008 and early 2009, before rising • The importance of the European Union those hit hardest by higher food prices and then beginning a second spike in (EU) as a global food producer and will be the poor in developing countries, Such developments constitute a real 2010-11.6 According to the UN Food shaper of international agricultural but they are not the only ones who will concern, not least because economic & Agriculture Organisation AO(F ), this policy; be affected. British policymakers should growth forecasts in the UK remain trend is set to continue in the coming also be concerned by this trend because extremely poor, with the ongoing • The interrelationship between food of the detrimental impact that rising food years. The current FAO forecast for insecurity, conflict and revolution, Eurozone crisis introducing the 2011-2020 predicts that cereal prices prices have on economic growth, both in possibility of a second recession. The will be on average 20 per cent higher • The impact of shocks, whether developed and developing economies. UK economy shrank by 0.3 per cent by 2020 than they are now, and meat malicious, natural or accidental, on the Rising food prices have the potential to in the last three months of 2011, a prices 30 per cent higher. Depending on UK food chain. jeopardise an already fragile economic trend that may continue into 2012.11 recovery in the UK and internationally. Simultaneously, the consumer price variables including yield growth and the The second section of this report highlights index of inflation continued to defy price of oil on world commodity prices, a number of critical areas for further According to the government’s 2010 7 the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target this increase could be higher still. consideration by both policymakers and Family Food Survey, households spend throughout 2011, peaking at over 5 per industry experts if UK and international an average of £24.50 per person per Much has been written in recent years cent. 12 Although inflation has fallen food security deficiencies are to be week on food, which equates to £1,274 about the interconnected challenges of 8 back in line with the Bank’s predictions successfully addressed. per annum per person. Thus a family how to feed the world in the coming since that time, it finished 2011 above 4 decades. However vital this question of four is now spending over £5,000 a year on food. On average, 11.5 per cent per cent and was still at 3.4 per cent in may be, food security is about much March 2012.13 more than ensuring that the world’s of household spend is now allocated to food, rising to 15.8 per cent for low- Policymakers should be concerned 9 income families. Between July 2010- about the impact of rising foodprices 11 alone the average food bill in the for two reasons. To begin with, many

16 17 Why Food Security Matters Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security families, already tightly-squeezed way, significant increases in food prices States, high levels of inflation have of China’s agricultural sector, which is financially, will respond to an increase at a time of stalling incomes and rising negatively affected both China and India comprised of millions of small farmers, in food prices by compromising on the unemployment can only add strain on in recent months. Though still impressive making it more vulnerable to food price quality of food they buy. Those on lower an already weakened UK economy. As when compared to Western growth rises, and disproportionately prone incomes will be hardest hit by price rises the Office for Budget Responsibility figures, China’s growth declined by to food price volatility. Half of China’s and may find it more difficult to maintain (OBR) warned in March 2011, if oil and almost one per cent last year, down from population - some 674 million people - healthy diets. Rising prices could also food prices continue to rise, then so will 9.8 per cent at the end of the first quarter still live in the countryside. Many work lead to stagnation in areas of the market inflation: “Under the assumption that of 2011.22 In March 2012, Beijing cut its in agriculture, and it is arguable that focused on premium/niche foods, and wages don’t adjust to this, consumption annual growth target to 7.5 per cent for the vulnerable and rudimentary nature values-based products (organic, fair will fall and growth will be lower”.17 2012.23 Indian economic growth slowed of their small plots leave them more trade and higher-welfare ranges). considerably in 2011, its fouth quarter susceptible to the fallout of changes Impact of Rising Food Prices on growth rate was the lowest in more than in market prices, disease and adverse Although this is a concern, there is good the International Economy two years.24 weather than large industrial operations, evidence to suggest that even during Today, the major engines of global which still constitute only 20 per cent of an economic crisis spending on food economic growth are to be found in Asia, Although inflation in China has fallen the Chinese market.27 remains fairly consistent; it is spending in particular China and – to a lesser but back from its 2011 high of 6.1 per in other areas which declines as a result. nonetheless significant extent –I ndia. As cent, what has not changed is the However, as with almost all countries, The validity of this concern appeared to UK economic growth struggles to reach 1 disproportionate impact of food price food prices inside China and India are have been borne out by half-year sales per cent, China posted growth figures of inflation on the overall figure. Food also affected by international factors, th figures released on 5 October by Tesco, 8.9 per cent in the final quarter of 2011 constitutes the biggest part of China’s over which British and European the UK’s largest supermarket, which alone,18 whilst India finished the year CPI, with an estimated share of around policymakers have considerable retains more than 30 per cent of the with quarterly growth of 6.1 per cent.19 30 per cent, and back in September influence. Both countries rely on country’s total market share. Posting its As the Governor of the Bank of England, 2011, food price inflation was running international markets to help meet worst performance for 20 years, Tesco Mervyn King, asserted in a speech on at a dangerously high level of 13.4 per their food needs—in fact, China is a net highlighted weakened demand for non- 18th October 2011, “Our fate rests to cent, more than double the overall CPI. importer of food, and the burgeoning food items, including electronics and a considerable extent on the policies That ratio continued into early 2012, middle classes in both countries are entertainment products. Significantly, pursued by our trading partners”.20 For with food price inflation running at 6.2 demanding a more varied and calorific however, the supermarket reported that the European Union, both China and per cent, as against an overall inflation diet requiring a significantly increased 25 iv like-for-like sales in food were “positive India are two such indispensable trading rate of 3.2 per cent. In India food supply of food to sustain. Both farmers 14 and showing signs of improvement”. partnersiii.21 price inflation was running above 10 and policymakers in the UK and EU will However, Tesco’s January 2012 trading per cent in October 2011, and though it have a vital role in helping to meet that statement, reported a 1.3 per cent Should the economic growth of these fell back to 6.55 per cent in early 2012 demand in the coming years. decrease in like-for-like sales.15 two major economies slow considerably, in response to a decrease in global food that would certainly jeopardise the EU’s prices, food price inflation nonetheless Indeed, analysis by the Institute for faltering economic recovery, if not the poses a genuine risk to the country’s Fiscal Studies (IFS) maintains that unlike fate of the entire global economy. Higher economic future.26 in previous recessions, food purchases food prices represent just such a threat iv. This is particularly apparent with regards to rising are in fact falling significantly, which may to both countries. Many of the causes of food price demand for meat, the production of which is much more reflect sharp increases in the price of inflation in China and India are internal resource intensive than crops. For example, between 1,150 In addition to ongoing economic and 2,000 litres of water are required to produce 1kg of food. In a study released on 17 October, or environmental and consequently wheat, but 16,000 litres are required produce 1kg of beef. the IFS reported a 6.6 per cent drop in turbulence within Europe and the United beyond the control of UK policymakers, In turn, 10kg of grain are required to produce 1kg of beef. food purchases over the course of the at least in the short term. In the case According to the government’s Foresight report on Global current recession.16 of China, for instance, the wheat crop Food and Farming Futures, per capita consumption of meat is expected to grow from 32kg per capita today to iii. China is the EU’s most significant import partner and was badly affected in 2010-11 by around 52kg per capita by the middle of the century, and It is by no means inconceivable that some its third most important export partner after the United extended droughts and severe floods. it is developing countries such as China and India that will consumers will respond to rising food States and Switzerland. Likewise, the EU represents China’s Environmental problems are further account for the greatest share of that rise. prices by cutting back their spending most important export partner and second most significant import partner after Japan. From the Indian perspective, exacerbated by the fragmented nature on food, whilst others will choose to the picture is clearer still: The EU is its most important reduce spending in other areas. Either export and import partner bar none. (Source: World Trade Organisation)

18 19 Why Food Security Matters Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

FOOD SECURITY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Europe’s significance as a global Kingdom. This compares to an average food producer of 3 tonnes in North America, 3.2 tonnes Today, Europe is a critically important in South America, 2.9 tonnes in Asia and 30 food producer, whether in terms of 2.3 tonnes in Africa. the yields it achieves, the technologies The ratio of land availability relative to it produces or the policies it pursues, population size is equally significant all of which influence the agricultural in the context of food security. By industry internationally. The EU is this measure, the needs of South East the world’s third largest producer of Asia and the Pacific are most acute, cereals, after China and the United as these regions possess just 29 per States and the second largest producer cent of the world’s arable land, but 53 of livestock after China. In terms of both per cent of its population. Contrast the import value and the export value of this with the countries of the OECD, its agricultural products, the EU remains Europe and Central Asia, which between contrasting international responses to affected food prices is the drive to by far the most important market.28 them account for 22 per cent of the the dramatic spike in the price of grains, increase the use of biofuels. As part of As the Food and Farming Minister, Jim world’s population but 46 per cent of rice and dairy products that took place in a global effort to reduce dependence Paice MP, observed in October 2011, 31 its arable land. Taken in isolation, the 2007-2008. While the global production on non-renewable energy sources and if the predicted impacts of climate EU possesses some 7.1 per cent of the of food increased by almost 4 per cent, combat climate change, the EU has change come to pass, northern Europe world’s total population and 8.1 per cent significantly, this growth took place committed itself to a mandatory 10 per in particular will become an even more 32 of its arable land. overwhelmingly in the developed world cent minimum target to be achieved significant component of the world’s and the Commonwealth, with the rest by all Member States for the share of food production base in the next half It is important to note that over the next 29 50 years population growth in Europe of the developing world reporting no biofuels in transport petrol and diesel century. 33 34 and the OECD countries is expected above-trend growth. consumption by 2020. Brazil, Japan In terms of the yields they achieve, and Indonesia have likewise committed to largely stagnate, whilst developing This is why, even though European European countries continue to set an themselves to a 10 per cent target and countries, especially in South East countries may feel content that they example that much of the rest of the China to a 5 per cent target. The United Asia, will account overwhelmingly for produce enough to feed themselves, world aspires to follow. As of 2009, States has committed to meeting 30 per the predicted 2 billion increase in the that does not mean they can ignore average wheat yields across the EU were cent of its energy needs from renewable world’s population, making Europe’s their vital role in helping feed the rest 5.2 tonnes per hectare, the highest in sources that include biofuels by 2030.35 contribution to food security even more of the world. This responsibility should the world, and 7.7 tonnes in the United vital. This reality is evidenced in the be recognised as much more than just Although these policies appear well- altruistic. As already mentioned, rising intentioned, the fact is that biofuel global food prices that result from targets are placing unnecessary supply failing to meet demand represent constraints on an already pressurised a real threat to the economic wellbeing global food market and inflating prices of some of the world’s major economies. significantly. According to a 2011 report by the World Bank, expanding biofuel In addition to Europe producing enough production to meet the various national food to help meet rising global demand, targets currently in place could push up EU policymakers also need to recognise global prices of corn and other major the impact that their agricultural policies grains by 3 per cent by 2020, and the can have well beyond Europe’s borders. price of sugar by up to 8 per cent.36 This The impact of biofuel targets on may even be a conservative estimate: food security a recent report by the FAO estimates One area of EU policy that has adversely that unless a significant amount of extra

20 21 Why Food Security Matters Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security land is found for biofuel production, the United States has a long pedigree, Thirty-nine GM products were authorised global food prices could be pushed up dating from the mid-1990s, when GM for food/feed imports as of October by anywhere between 15-40 per cent, crops were first introduced to the food 2011, although EU policy on the import should food-crop production remain market. Initially, opposition was based of GMOs is by no means relaxed.48 Until stable.37 upon fears that GM foods could be mid-2011, the EU had a zero-tolerance harmful to health, with pressure groups policy on the presence of unauthorised A major problem with biofuel targets such as Greenpeace and Friends of the GM in animal feed imports. In countries is that the energy market is worth Earth warning consumers of the dangers such as Argentina or the United States, significantly more than the market for of so-called “Frankenfoods”.42 In one where GMOs are widespread in the food, so that even relatively small targets memorable campaign, Greenpeace food-chain, ensuring that food for export translate into huge demand for crops. began running adverts featuring to the EU is entirely trace-free of GMOs For instance, at the start of 2011, ethanol “FrankenTony”, a monstrous imitation of has become increasingly commercially accounted for just 8 per cent of the US’s Tony the Tiger, in protest at Kellogg’s use unviable. On 25 June 2011, however, fuel for vehicles, but consumed almost of GM ingredients in their cereals.43 the EU announced its decision to relax 40 per cent of its already enormous the zero-tolerance policy, agreeing a maize crop. If all the American maize In response to widespread popular new 0.1 per cent limit on the presence required to produce this ethanol were concern about the potentially adverse of unauthorised GMOs in feed imports.49 instead used as food, global edible maize effects of genetically modified organisms The EU still maintains the zero-tolerance supplies would increase by 14 per cent.38 on human health, the EU imposed a de policy on food imports intended for and in particular GMOs, are not per se facto ban on approvals of new GMOs human consumption, however. The impact of biofuels on food prices in 1998, which was only lifted six years more risky than e.g. conventional plant 51 and food security is not just a problem later in 2004. This decision was referred An increasing number of groups and breeding technologies”. for the future however; the impact is to the World Trade Organisation, which individuals from both the scientific On the contrary, there is now good already being felt. In its assessment ruled in 2006 that the moratorium was community and the food industry believe of the 2007-2008 food price spike, evidence to suggest that biotechnology, a contravention of international trade that the EU’s continued resistance to including GMOs, offer a range of when global prices increased by more rules.44 GMOs is not only scientifically unsound, than 63 per cent in 18 months, the UK benefits that have accrued from but commercially damaging to food enhanced agricultural productivity. The government concluded that the diversion Currently, just two GM crops can be producers in both the developed and the of agricultural land to biofuel production legally grown commercially inside the EU, International Service for the Acquisition 39 developing world. While it is only right of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) has was a significant contributory factor. a GM maize strain, Mon 810, authorised that considerable care should be taken Likewise, the FAO has partly attributed in 1998 and a GM starch potato known as concluded that had the world not made before introducing a genetically modified use of biotech crops between 1996 and the current increase in global food prices Amflora, authorised for cultivation and organism into an ecosystem, still more a to biofuel production.40 Ironically, a industrial processing in March 2010.45 2009, an additional 75 million hectares human diet, over the past decade major of conventional crops would have been 2010 report sponsored by the European Grown predominantly in Spain, Mon studies have found no evidence that GM Commission has itself recognised the 810 is designed to be resistant to the required to produce the same tonnage food does in fact harm health. A 2008 of food, some of it on fragile marginal impact of biofuel expansion on crop European corn borer, which particularly review by the Royal Society of Medicine prices, but noted this was a positive affects maize crops in southern Europe. lands at risk of deforestation; 393 million noted that GM foods have been eaten kilograms (kg) of extra pesticides would development when measured against The maize is used primarily for animal by millions of people worldwide for the provided indicator of “maintaining feed, not human consumption. The have been required; and in 2009 alone, 41 over 15 years, with no reports of ill an additional 17.6 million kg of carbon farm incomes”. Amflora potato, likewise, is not used effects.50 Likewise, a 2010 report from for human consumption but industrial dioxide (CO2) would have been released The Impact of EU GMO Regulations the European Commission Directorate- into the atmosphere, the equivalent of starch production. More than 20 other General for Research and Innovation on Food Security requests for authorisation of GMO 7.8 million cars. In terms of economic Another major area of EU policy that is determined that: “The main conclusion gains, biotech crops contributed to an cultivation, or for their renewal, are to be drawn from the efforts of more than adversely impacting global food security ongoing.46 There are no GM crops estimated $65 billion in extra revenues is the regulation of genetically modified 130 research projects, covering a period at the farm level between 1996 and currently grown commercially in the of more than 25 years of research, and (GM) food. United Kingdom, since neither of the 2009 and contributed significantly to involving more than 500 independent lowering global food prices.52 Opposition to GM food in Europe and two approved products are of interest to research groups, is that biotechnology, UK farmers.47 In response to such evidence, anti-GM

22 23 Why Food Security Matters Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security campaigners have undertaken a subtle conducting research on GM potatoes Melinda Gates Foundation to support of up to 2.4 million people. Mwanawasa shift in their campaigning. The emphasis to make them resistant to a particular scientists in developing a nutritionally- insisted, “I will not allow Zambians to be is no longer on potential dangers blight pathogen called Phytopthora enhanced GM sorghum crop. Sorghum turned into guinea pigs no matter the to human health, but the supposed infestans. Phytopthora is an especially is favoured by communities in some levels of hunger in the country”.61 The financial cost to poor farmers in the harmful blight that has evolved to of the most arid regions of Africa, for president’s decision followed a letter developing world and concerns over the elude hundreds of natural resistance instance in northern Kenya, because it is signed by Friends of the Earth and 140 emergence of “superweeds”. The belief genes present in most cultivated potato heat tolerant and requires very little soil African community leaders to the US that GM crops benefit large corporations varieties, and which causes some £3.5 moisture to grow. Its major drawback, government warning of GM’s potentially at the expense of small farmers is one of billion in annual losses worldwide. The however, is that it possesses almost “chronic toxic effects” on human health, the most pervasive arguments made by blight-resistant potato currently being no vitamins, making it an unhealthy and highlighting the risk of cancer.62 In opponents of GM crops. In fact, prior to trialled at the John Innes Centre reduces diet on which many communities are recent years, EU policies on GMOs have their cultivation being legalised, small the amount of pesticides the crop needs nonetheless compelled to rely.58 On 1st provoked increasingly strong criticism farmers in developing countries such as whilst retaining all the characteristics July 2011, the Kenyan government, in in relation to their impact on the GM Brazil resorted to smuggling GM seeds that the market values in potatoes.56 response to rising prices and a growing policies of many developing countries, onto their farms in a bid to remain body of evidence confirming the safety especially those which depend upon competitive internationally.53 Today, 90 Beyond Europe’s borders, the EU’s GMO of GMOs, approved a law permitting the EU as an export market. In October per cent of GM crops are grown not by policies are having a significant and, in the production and importation of 2011, the leading African scientist and big corporations but by small farmers many cases, detrimental impact on food genetically modified crops.59 former agricultural adviser to the Kenyan in developing countries.54 According security. Partly as a consequence of EU government, Dr Felix M’mboyi, went so to Dr Nina Fedoroff, who served as the GMO regulations, many non-European However, Kenya is only the fourth of far as to accuse the EU of indulging in US State Department’s chief Science governments have adopted anti-GMO Africa’s 54 countries to allow the full- “hypocrisy and arrogance [that] comes policies, both because of the EU’s scale production and importation of 63 and Technology Adviser between 60 with the luxury of a full stomach”. 2007 and 2010, anti-GM policies may importance to them as an export market GM crops. Most African governments actually benefit large corporations at the and out of a desire to emulate European remain deeply sceptical of GMOs, even If rising global demand for food is to expense of small farmers: ‘best practice’. The deleterious effects of when confronted with extreme hunger be met in coming years, it is vital that this trend have manifested most acutely and even famines. In 2002, Zambian Europe produces enough to feed both “The continuing distaste for [genetically in Africa. Over the past 40 years, global president Levy Mwanawasa famously itself and many beyond its borders. engineered plants] and their consequent food production has increased by 145 rejected a shipment of food-aid from EU policymakers therefore have a absurd over-regulation means that per cent, yet African food production the US that contained GM-corn, despite responsibility recognise the impact that the most up-to-date, environmentally dropped by 10 per cent over the same facing a famine that threatened the lives EU food regulations have internationally. benign crop protection strategies are period. A mixture of political and used almost exclusively for the mega- environmental problems contributed crops that are profitable for biotech to this outcome, with the consequence companies. The public agricultural that many countries in Africa are unable research sector remains largely to feed themselves. According to the excluded from using modern molecular FAO, just 4 per cent of African land is technology.”55 irrigated, and almost 240 million of the continent’s 760 million people are going At a time when yield growth is slowing, hungry.57 demand for food is rapidly increasing, and prices are rising, the EU’s continued Although Africa’s food insecurity will resistance to GMOs is compromising never be resolved without substantive both regional and international food political reforms, GM crops could have security. Within Europe, GMOs are an important role to play in reducing being developed that are both pest- hunger and increasing food security resistant – thus reducing the need for for the millions of people suffering pesticides – and capable of delivering from failures beyond their control. enhanced yields. For instance, the John For instance, the Kenyan government Innes Centre in Norfolk is currently is currently working with the Bill &

24 25 Why Food Security Matters Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

September 2010 forecast by the Nomura fired the prime minister after more Research Institute, which listed the top than a week of riots over food prices, 25 countries most vulnerable to rising in particular the price of rice, which food prices, included Egypt, Libya and left five people dead, including one UN Tunisia.67 In the 24 months preceding peacekeeper.72 In Madagascar, spiralling the outbreak of their respective rice prices also helped contribute to the revolutions, food prices rose by over ‘direct expression of democracy’ which 32 per cent in Egypt and almost 11 per cost 135 lives and saw the incumbent cent in Tunisia.68 The first protests of president Marc Ravalomanana replaced the Arab Spring, which hit Tunisia in by the then-mayor of Antanarivo, Andy December 2010, were dismissed initially Rajoelina, in early 2009.73 as simply another round of bread riots, and a number of regimes responded by Although not the primary focus of making adjustments to food prices and this report, another serious and offering increased subsidies.69 interconnected concern that will undoubtedly generate additional A recent study by the New England conflict in the coming decades is water FOOD SECURITY AND CONFLICT Complex Systems Institute has posited insecurity. It has been estimated that that there is a figure above which food by 2050, humans will be consuming The inter-relationship between food insecurity “can be both a cause and price riots and unrest become far more as much as 90 per cent of the world’s 65 food insecurity, conflict and a consequence of violent conflict”. It is likely. That figure is 210 on the AOF ’s food freshwater supply, up from 54 per cent revolution clear that the combination of expanding price index (FPI), passed near the outset in 2009.74 Not since the Swing Riots of the 1830s populations, rising food prices, climate of the most recent food price spike in has Britain been confronted with major change and forced migrations are poised mid-2010, and which remained above Increased competition for dwindling civil unrest connected to the price of to make food-related conflict a growing 210 throughout 2011.70 Whether such a resources has already generated major food. In that instance the catalyst was problem over the coming years. concrete figure can be used in this way conflict in recent years, with perhaps the the end of the Napoleonic wars and the is open to question, but it nonetheless most brutal example in the Darfur region According to the 2011 Food Security of Sudan. Although the conflict began as introduction of industrial technology Index, produced by the global risk- seems highly plausible that longstanding to the farming sector that combined grievances including political repression a regional rebellion in 2003, tensions analysis company Maplecroft, there escalated in part due to competition to make food prices not too high, but are currently 60 countries in the world and economic immobility, when too low for the large number of people combined with immediate additional over water supplies driven by drought. ranked as having an “Extreme Risk” or Over the previous 40 years, a drop still dependent upon agriculture for “High Risk” of food-related insecurity, problems such as the rapidly rising price their livelihoods. Today, even with food of food, can and do lead to unrest such in rainfall of between 16-30 per cent 12 extreme and 48 high. Unsurprisingly, shifted the desert boundary by 60 miles, prices rising to unprecedented levels, the majority of these countries are as has been seen across much of the and a warning in March 2011 by a senior Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in prompting nomadic tribes to go after the located in underdeveloped regions of territory of sedentary farmers for food HSBC economist that this could indeed the world where political and economic 2011. combine with other severe economic breakdown is advanced, with DR Congo pressures and lead to food riots in the The MENA uprisings are by no means and Somalia currently ranked the most the first upheavals to have taken place in UK, civil unrest connected to the price of at-risk countries on earth.66 food remains improbable.64 recent years in which rising food-prices Also at risk are a number of Arab may have been a significant contributing Nevertheless, for a deeply globalised states, including Egypt, Libya, Tunisia factor, nor are they likely to be the country such as the United Kingdom, the and Yemen, all of which experienced last. The food-price spike of 2007-2008 threats posed by food-related conflict major upheavals in 2011. Longstanding saw the FAO index rise from 130 at the abroad should be a real concern. On economic and political motives for start of 2007 to over 210 by mid-2008, 19th July 2011, Germany’s Permanent the so-called “Arab Spring” uprisings and the price increase71 contributed to Mission to the United Nations sought are well established; however there the collapse governments in Haiti and to include food security on the agenda is evidence that rising food prices Madagascar. In Haiti, the government of the UN Security Council, arguing that were another significant catalyst. A fell on 12 April 2008 when senators

26 27 Why Food Security Matters Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security and water.75 The resulting conflict was starvation. 80 intensified by the fact that the people affected by these attacks accused the In its most recent National Security Sudanese government not only of Strategy (NSS), the UK government failing to prevent these incursions by affirmed its commitment to prioritising Arab nomads, but of supporting them. ‘upstream’ conflict prevention, correctly The government in Khartoum lacked recognising this as a far cheaper and more effective strategy than post-conflict the necessary infrastructure and will 81 to respond to the crisis effectively, and reconstruction. The government must instead recruited Arab militias known as recognise that measures to curb high the Janjaweed to wage a campaign of and volatile food prices are a crucial ethnic cleansing that cost 500,000 lives component in that effort. Food-related and generated 2 million environmental conflict not only generates new refugee refugees.76 flows and potentially raises food prices further, it can even compel an On 17th October 2011, the British international military response, which Ambassador to Khartoum, Nicholas Kay, could implicate the UK. If rising food was 9.5 days. Over the same period the death; second, sabotage of the supply described Sudan as a country “where prices across the MENA region were average retailer stock of slow-moving chain leading to food shortage; and hunger stalks the land”.77 At a time when indeed part of the catalyst that led to groceries (non-perishable, non-frozen third, misuse of food and drink materials the international community struggled the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt in goods) declined from 13.5 days to 10.5 for terrorist or criminal purposes.85 The to feed 5.2 million Sudanese, Kay early 2011, which in turn sparked the days, and the average stock of frozen CPNI maintains that ‘upstream’ attacks accused the government of preferring to revolution in Libya, that makes them a foods declined from 12 days to 9.83 (i.e. disruptions at the production end “sacrifice lives rather than sit around a component in the series of events which Commercial pressures also demand that of the food-chain), have the potential table”.78 The remarks caused particular led to engagement of British forces in the food-chain be as lean as possible, to cause much greater harm than consternation in Khartoum, where the Libya as part of UN Security Council and consequently dependent upon every ‘downstream’ attacks (i.e. disruptions government fears another popular Resolution 1973. The fact that high food section functioning properly.84 Within at the consumer end of the food- uprising. Sudan already experienced prices were almost certainly not on the that food chain, the UK has come to rely chain),86 as downstream attacks have a regular protests in 2011, as prices minds of either Colonel Gaddafi or Prime overwhelmingly on large supermarkets localised impact, whereas a successful for staple foods rose by more than Minister David Cameron when they and their logistics networks. By its very upstream attack could percolate down 20 per cent a month.79 The Sudanese considered their response to the crisis is nature, therefore, the British food-chain into numerous other sectors of the food government has been accused of using immaterial; the fact is that they were a is vulnerable to shocks and disruptions, chain. food as a weapon of war against the contributing factor, and one that sound whether natural, accidental or malicious. newly-independent South Sudan, by policymaking and future planning needs Sir David Omand, who acted as the UK’s blocking aid agencies during the pre- to recognise and understand. The UK food-chain is also vulnerable due first Security & Intelligence Coordinator harvest lean season, and thus putting to the openness, quantity and diversity in 2002, concurs that attacks on upstream several thousand of its citizens at risk of of food production and distribution food producers have the most potential sites within the country. The threat of to cause harm and would be relatively THE IMPACT OF SHOCKS AND DISRUPTIONS ON THE UK FOOD CHAIN agro-terrorism in the UK is not widely easy to execute. The interconnectedness recognised outside certain specialist of the UK food chain with other critical Although the UK carries a much lower holds no food reserves of its own, and sectors, but is an important component components of the UK’s infrastructure, level of food security risk than many overall reserves within the UK run to of UK food security requiring careful in particular the electricity grid and the developing countries, the British food just a few days, consisting of whatever consideration by policymakers. road network, represents an additional concern.87 chain is by no means invulnerable to food remains unused within the food- The government’s Centre for the shocks. chain at a given moment.82 Over the past Protection of National Infrastructure However, Omand also maintains that decade, the average stock of food held As with most sectors of the modern (CPNI) identifies three main agro- although the food chain is vulnerable by British retailers has been in decline.I n terrorist threats to food and drink. First, to attack, it would be difficult to bring British economy, the food industry 1996, the average retailer stock of fast- operates on a ‘just-in-time’ as opposed malicious contamination with toxic about a disruption capable of causing moving groceries (perishables such as materials causing ill-health and even lasting and widespread damage.88 The to a ‘just-in-case’ basis. The government milk and bread) was 10.5 days; in 2008 it

28 29 Why Food Security Matters Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

CPNI likewise maintains that the size and not reduce the need for vigilance by three-quarters of petrol stations had in trading relationships between the diversity of the UK food industry, whilst policymakers. It is notable that the run dry,94 with supermarkets warning of UK and/or the EU and the rest of making it more vulnerable to attack, conclusion reached by the government limited stocks owing to their inability to the world unlikely, it points out that also makes it more resilient to lasting in the wake of the Foot & Mouth crisis in resupply their stores. Here too, panic- potential cultivatable land comfortably damage. The overall availability of food 2001 was that were al-Qaeda to attempt buying broke out.95 Coming to terms exceeds presently harvested land, and supplies and the ability to substitute an agroterrorist attack, then the Foot & with the scale of the situation, then- that production could be increased in one food for another will always make it Mouth crisis would serve as an example Prime Minister Tony Blair responded response to strong market signals.98 The extremely difficult for malicious attacks that would be difficult to surpass in by putting the NHS on an emergency report points out that even during the to cut off the food supply sufficient to terms of damage caused.91 footing and the army on standby, Second World War, the UK was never cause serious disruption.89 deploying some eighty military fuel entirely self-sufficient, but that even in In the past two decades the UK has had tankers around the country and invoking a worst case scenario in which the UK is To date, the UK has been fortunate that to deal with a number of major shocks emergency powers to ensure delivery of entirely isolated, it would nonetheless this assessment has been borne out by which have, in their different ways, all fuel to vital services.96 The fuel protests retain sufficient productive potential to events. For instance, a notable incident impacted upon the UK food chain. These demonstrated the dangerous limitations feed its population adequately, albeit on recorded by the CPNI involved a major have included the BSE crisis (1986-mid- of operating vital services on a ‘just-in- a significantly altered diet.99 producer of pastry goods losing five 1990s); the Fuel Protests (2000); the Foot time’ basis. days of production in 2007, at a cost of & Mouth outbreak (2001); the H1N1 That the UK could, in extremis, prevent 5 per cent of its annual turnover, when Influenza (2009-2010); the eruption Equally significant is the fact that, with its population from starving to death its factory was shut down following a of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafallajökull the exception of the H1N1 influenza, will be a comfort to policymakers on one malicious attack that introduced peanuts and the resulting ash cloud which shut neither the fuel protest nor any of the level. On another level, however, this is onto the site, which was designated down air traffic across Europe (2010); other crises mentioned was foreseen by hardly the gold standard. Disruptions as nut-free.90 Bad as the situation was and most recently the E-Coli outbreak the government. As the CPNI and others to UK food supplies can fall a long way for that food producer, however, the (2011). Between them, these crises have recognised, therefore, effective short of total collapse before they incident did not have a significant impact cost the British economy in excess of and flexible response mechanisms are generate very serious problems. Nor on food security nationwide. £15 billion and, in the case of the BSE as, if not more, important to dealing need disruptions be long term to do real and H1N1 crises, 629 human lives.v The with these shocks effectively than efforts harm. As the MI5 maxim puts it, at any This is not to underplay the threats that most severe of these crises in economic to prevent them in the first place. one time theU K is “four meals away from do face the UK food chain. The UK food terms, the Foot & Mouth crisis of 2001, anarchy”. Whether or not this is taken chain has suffered a number of severe cost the British economy in excess of £8 In its most recent assessment of UK food as an overstatement, it nonetheless non-malicious shocks in recent years. billion92 and resulted in the slaughter of production resilience, the government makes the point. For this and many Resilience experts such as Omand and some 4 million animals.93 concluded that the UK remains well- of the other reasons already outlined Sir Brian Bender, Permanent Secretary at placed to withstand disruptions to food in this report, policymakers should be the Ministry of Agriculture (subsequently Perhaps the clearest example of how imports. Although the UK currently actively pursuing policies that not only DEFRA) between 2000 and 2005, quickly a localised disruption can relies on imports for around 48 per cent minimise the potential for disruptions to maintain that it would be possible to escalate into a major national crisis, of the food it consumes, the majority the food-chain, but also guarantee the induce similar shocks maliciously. The however, is the Fuel Protests of 2000. of imports come from within the EU, British population a continued supply physical openness of most farmyards, What began as scattered picketing of which as a whole is over 90 per cent 97 of accessible, affordable, and nutritious the concentrated and intensive nature oil refineries by farmers and hauliers on self-sufficient. Not only does the food. of contemporary farming practices, 8th September rapidly developed into a government consider a breakdown and the fact that vetting procedures for nationwide series of blockades. By 13th farm workers - many of whom come September, just five days later, almost from abroad on a temporary basis – are almost non-existent, all contribute to the UK’s vulnerability to the introduction v. The BSE outbreak claimed 173 lives in the United of disease to livestock. Kingdom and the H1N1 outbreak claimed 457. Although both Foot & Mouth disease and E-Coli have claimed lives The fact that the most recent major elsewhere in the world, neither of these crises claimed lives inside the United Kingdom during the incidences shocks to afflict the food chain in recent mentioned. Although both the fuel protests and the years have been non-malicious does Eyjafallajökull eruption may have cost lives indirectly, they have not been directly attributed to loss of life in the UK.

30 31 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

The European Council has stated that its or pesticide-free cultivation”.103 Many Critical Areas for Further Consideration mandatory 10 per cent minimum target farmers believe that unofficial policy is for the share of biofuels in transport to work towards eliminating the use of petrol and diesel consumption by 2020 pesticides inside the EU altogether. “...is appropriate, subject to production being sustainable, second-generation This hostility to crop protection tools is As this report has sought to highlight, to eat in coming decades, but also to misguided, and needs to be addressed. global food security is about much more ameliorate these other related concerns biofuels becoming commercially than ensuring the world’s population in the process. available and Directive 98/70/EC of the has enough to eat. Rising food prices are European Parliament and of the Council impacting adversely on economic growth BIOFUEL TARGETS of 13 October 1998 relating to the in both the developed and developing Numerous reports from the United quality of petrol and diesel fuels [7] being worlds, and they are also contributing to Nations, the UK government and other amended to allow for adequate levels of conflict and even revolutions that in the sources have demonstrated that the blending.”101 Enhancing the commercial past 12 months have, in the case of Libya, drive to increase the use of biofuels viability of second-generation biofuels, resulted in a British military response.A s has contributed significantly to rising which are derived from woody crops, the world’s largest producer, importer global food prices, and will continue to agricultural residues and waste is crucial. and exporter of food, Europe has a do so in future. The pursuit of biofuel If biofuels are to become a lasting part particular responsibility to help meet targets could inflate the price of food by of the energy-mix, they must be derived the world’s growing food needs, and its anywhere between 15-40 per cent over from non-food sources to the greatest agricultural policies can and do impact the next decade, even excluding other possible extent. on that effort both within and beyond variables that could push the price up still further. If biofuel targets are not to be scrapped its borders. Moreover, although not altogether, they should at least be more Not only are EU pesticides regulations vulnerable in the same way as many When biofuels began gaining widespread flexible, with one possibility being to hurting farmers, they also have a developing countries, the UK food chain popularity in the late 1990s/early 2000s, specify a relationship between the FPI detrimental impact on food security is not immune to shocks and disruptions, global food prices were comparatively and the diversion of biofuel feedstocks inside the EU. The UK government’s whether accidental, natural or malicious, low, at around 90-120 on the FAO’s back into the food-chain. The decision Chemicals Regulation Directorate has and this should be an active concern for FPI.100 With food prices rising rapidly, in as to what figure would mark the estimated that the EU’s latest pesticide policymakers. This section of the report part as a consequence of biofuels, the threshold beyond which such a diversion directive could have the adverse highlights a number of key areas on mandatory biofuel production targets could take place should be based on an consequence of cutting crop yields by which both policymakers and industry imposed by the EU and others demand assessment, such as the one carried out as much as 20 per cent.104 Clearly, this experts will need to focus, not only to recalibration. last year by the New England Complex is something that both the UK and the ensure that the world has enough food Systems Institute, of the tipping-point EU as a whole cannot afford. The AOF beyond which food-related insecurity has predicted that if current trends could become significantly more likely. continue, a combination of slowing yields, rapidly increasing demand and EU REGULATION OF CROP PROTECTION rising energy prices will push the average PRODUCTS price of food up by 20 per cent. On their Crop protection products are vital to analysis, even a 5 per cent reduction in protecting crops from pests and disease, wheat yields would result in a 25 per and to help farmers produce food at an cent increase in price. Should the same affordable price. Plant pests and diseases thing happen to the global rice crop, currently account for approximately 40 the price would rise by almost 25 per per cent loss in global production, and cent, likewise with coarse grains, whilst recent scientific forecasts predict that the price of poultry meat would rise by this problem will get worse.102 The stated around 12 per cent.105 direction ofEU policy, as laid down in the Sixth Environment Action Programme In a recent UK-focused analysis, the (6th EAP), is to “encourage low-input Crop Protection Association concluded

32 33 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security that a failure to invest in effective crop two products have been authorised for protection products could lead to a40 cultivation.113 As of August 2011 there per cent increase in the nation’s food was a backlog of 72 GM products in bill, costing an extra £70 billion. Such the EU approvals system, 51 for import a price increase would result in a “loss or processing, and 21 for cultivation.114 of choice and a decline in the nation’s Ironically, the complexity of the current health and nutrition as households system benefits large GM companies reduced consumption of expensive fruit such as Monsanto, which currently and vegetables.”106 dominate the market in GMOs; smaller companies find it extremely difficult to Ecological concerns certainly constitute compete in such a complex and costly a legitimate reason to regulate the use system.115 of crop protection products. However, it is equally important for EU policymakers The UK government’s official stance to understand the interconnectedness on GMO approvals is that it should be of regulation in this area with a host of a science not politics-led process, and other concerns, and to consult more maintains that the growth and sale closely with farmers regarding the of GM food or feed products should ramifications of policies that too often be granted only after “a robust risk hinder sustainable farming. Given that Commission Directorate-General for or not the product in question may be assessment indicates that it is safe for farmers are responsible for some 44 Research have concluded that there is harmful to humans or the environment people and the environment”.116 The no evidence that GMOs pose a risk to often become a secondary determining per cent of all the land within the EU, 110 government should work with like- they remain amongst the best-placed human health any more than traditional factor. minded EU member states to reform the plant-breeding technologies. custodians of our environment.107 Under current proposals to reform approvals process and achieve this goal. Today, Europe is losing products that Unfortunately, the EU’s approach to the approvals process for cultivation GMOs are by no means the sole solution have been scientifically proven as GMO regulation is driven as much by of crops inside the EU, an amendment to current challenges to global food safe because regulation is driven by politics and perception as by empirical has been put forward that would allow security, but as the government’s the perception of hazard, rather than scientific evidence. At present, the EU’s individual governments to ban the ‘Foresight’ report and many other science-based evidence of risk. The GM authorisation framework has two cultivation of approved GM crops on studies have concluded, they have an EU must revisit its regulation of crop distinct and separate phases. The first social or economic grounds, such as important role to play.117 As the Royal is the risk-assessment phase, involving public opposition or to safeguard organic protection products to ensure that 111 Society has noted in a recent report, past regulations in this area are science- a scientific assessment of human and farming. This is a step backwards. debates on the use of new technologies based and proportionate. environmental risks by independent Instead, the EU should be focusing on in agriculture have to often presented scientists operating under the auspices reforming its GMO approvals process policymakers with a false dichotomy; EU REGULATION OF GENETICALLY of the European Food Safety Authority so that decisions are made solely on the an either/or approach, emphasising MODIFIED ORGANISMS (EFSA), in collaboration with experts basis of scientific evidence of risk and the value of one approach over the The decision to introduce a genetically from member states. The EFSA then benefits. downsides of others. In reality, no single modified organism into the natural provides a scientific opinion to the technology or approach can be viewed European Commission on the product.108 Additionally, the EU should work to environment, particularly for products streamline the approvals process, which as a panacea, but nor should promising destined for human consumption, The second phase, by contrast, is a is prohibitively complex and expensive. technologies be ignored for the sake of must be taken with the greatest care. politically-led process. Member states The average time required to approve political expediency.118 However, over the past decade, a take into account the EFSA’s scientific a GM product for import into the EU is number of investigations into the 112 EU AGRICULTURAL TARIFFS & EXPORT opinion in tandem with ‘other legitimate 45 months. That compares with 30 REFUNDS potential dangers of GMOs have found factors’, before making a final decision months in Canada, 27 months in Brazil, no evidence that GM food is harmful. As about whether to authorise a GM and 25 months in the United States. The Agricultural protectionism has long mentioned in SectionO ne of this report, product.109 This can result in a heavily situation is worse still when it comes to contributed to high global food prices recent reports from both the Royal politicised process, in which science- authorising GM products for cultivation and food insecurity. As the government’s Society of Medicine and the European based considerations over whether inside the EU: in the past 13 years, just ‘Foresight’ report has argued:

34 35 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

“Production subsidies, trade restrictions to increase subsidies for dairy products, This in turn drove global food prices non. A country can become dependent and other market interventions used by with export refunds of as much as €200 up by 5 per cent in the biggest month- on the markets for the import of most high-income countries have become of per tonne offered for skimmed milk, on-month increase since November things, and survive if those lifelines huge significance because of the financial and €580 per tonne for butteroil. It was 2009.125 When Russia announced its are cut off, but no country can survive and political powers of the nations decided that the measure should apply decision to lift the embargo at the end without food. As the Arab uprisings this involved. This political significance has “...for as long as market conditions so of May 2011, markets responded by year have demonstrated, food scarcity allowed subsidies and barriers to trade dictate”.121 almost immediately dropping the price can trigger violence and revolution long in agricultural markets to assume levels of wheat by 5 per cent.126 before supplies are cut off completely.U K far in excess of those applied in any The decision met with a critical response food self-sufficiency has declined rapidly industrial sector.”119 Agricultural tariffs from the Cairns Group, a coalition of Given that the EU remains one of the in the past two and-a-half decades, from in the EU are on average three times 19 agricultural exporting countries world’s biggest producers, exporters and almost 80 per cent in 1984 to 60 per cent committed to reforming agricultural importers of food, the impact on global higher than the average across industrial 122 now. A reason for this has been that the goods, and certain key commodities are trade: food markets were it to take similar high costs UK farmers incur producing protected by tariffs of more than 70 per action for whatever reason would likely British food make it difficult to compete “This is a dangerous action, given the be as if not more severe. Indeed, it is not cent.120 risk that it could encourage further against farmers in other markets where even clear that EU food protectionism the cost of production is lower. Unfortunately, the Doha Development trade-distorting responses which need benefitsE uropean consumers. In 2008, it Round at the World Trade Organisation to be avoided. Moreover, by resorting to was estimated that the EU’s agricultural It is important to note the achievements (WTO), where international efforts to export subsidies again, as it did last year policies increased food prices by as much of CAP as well as its deficiencies. For reduce agricultural tariffs are conducted at for pork and did previously for wheat, as 12 per cent.127 Europe’s importance in instance, by decoupling payments a multilateral level, has been stalled since the EU continues to shield its producers the global food markets has meant that from production, the CAP has helped 2008. The EU remains engaged in a series from market forces, at the expense of protectionist policies have generated reduce market distortions resulting from of bilateral talks with other countries unsubsidised producers in other markets. significant food security problems. The payments, and has brought European focusing on these issues, yet it is difficult It is of particular concern that farmers government must continue its efforts to policy in line with WTO rules.130 to see how any balanced and equitable in many developing countries, which convince its European partners of the However, as the WTO has repeatedly reduction of agricultural tariffs can take cannot afford to engage in subsidy wars, folly of some of these policies. stressed, further reforms are needed to place a without recourse to a global forum stand to suffer most from increased reduce market distortions arising from such as the Doha Rounds at the WTO. distortions in world agricultural markets. THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY the CAP. This being said, such reforms This is not the leadership we require from (CAP) 123 must be conducted in a way that enables In addition to tariffs, another related key economies at this point in time.” Many critics of EU agricultural policy European farmers to maximise food area of concern is export refunds. In Export refunds have declined significantly believe that the Common Agricultural production and remain in business. late January 2009, “...in response to Policy (CAP) is a particularly blatant the serious situation on the EU dairy in recent years, and now constitute just Many of the most egregious CAP 0.5 per cent of the Common Agricultural example of protectionism that should market”, the EU announced its decision 128 subsidies have been significantly Policy (CAP) budget. The EU has offered be dispensed with entirely. This report argues that the CAP should not be reduced, if not eliminated, in recent to phase export refunds out altogether, years. In 2008, the EU suspended the but this is on the condition that other scrapped, but that the ongoing reform process must be reorientated towards set-aside policy, first introduced in 1988, countries drop similar trade-distorting whereby farmers were actually paid not subsidies.124 maximising productivity and eliminating the subsidisation of waste. to produce food on a given percentage Major food producing countries of their agricultural land.131 Concluded and regions must recognise that The EU’s Agriculture Commissioner, during the 2007-08 price spike, the protectionist policies designed to Dacian Cioloş, has recently argued decision was a welcome recognition of benefit consumers at home often impact that the market cannot be relied upon the fact that for Europe, as for the rest of those living beyond their borders. When completely for something as strategically the world, the era of ‘butter mountains’ Russia, the world’s third largest wheat important, and vulnerable to external and ‘wine lakes’ is over. As mentioned in 129 exporter, imposed a grain export ban events, as food production. For a the previous section, the export refund at the start of August 2010 in response country to retain the capacity to feed system has also been improved, and has to drought and wildfires, the result its population in times of need as well now been reduced to less than 0.5 per was a surge in global wheat prices. as times of plenty is a strategic sine qua cent of the total CAP budget.

36 37 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

The EU is currently in the midst of expense of maximising food production. land, and without causing additional a major effort to reform the CAP harm to the environment. process by 2013, the last such round If environmental considerations are to of reforms having taken place in 2003. form part of the new CAP, then they When the Green Revolution transformed On 12th October 2011, the European should be less uniform than they are global agriculture 50 years ago, it did so Commission produced its latest proposal at present. There are approximately through innovation and technology, not for CAP reform, to mixed reviews. Certain 300,000 farms in the UK, occupying a through the cultivation of significant diverse range of arable and pastoral quantities of new land.136 Ultimately measures contained within the proposal 135 are to be welcomed, for instance land. Inevitably, some farms occupy it was scientific developments which doubling the budget for agricultural land that is better for farming than enabled the world’s farmers to defy research and innovation, and seeking others, and the EU should consider ways Malthus’s famous predictions. Given the to facilitate the establishment of young by which the most fertile farms could set additional constraints imposed upon the farmers, in light of the fact that two aside less of their land for environmental farmers who will supply the global food thirds of European farmers are 55 years purposes, whilst farms with land more supply for the next 50 years, innovation of age or older.132 It should be said, suited to such diversification, could set will become even more important. however, that market forces will always aside more. The UK government must therefore provide the surest incentive for young invest in UK agricultural research and The EU is right to maintain environmental development (R&D). As a starting point, people to enter any profession. If, after regulations, but the CAP should not two decades of decline, farming once the government should support EU be one of them. Its purpose must be proposals to double the agricultural crops that maintain or even increase again becomes a profitable and valued to enable farmers to maximise food yields but require reduced amounts of profession in Europe, then the problem research and innovation budget as part production, and the government must of ongoing CAP reforms.137 water. Such developments will be even of finding young people to become keep this at the forefront of their efforts more urgent if the predicted impacts farmers will take care of itself. in the new round of CAP reforms. One of the clearest examples of the of climate change come to pass. To this However, some of the other measures critical importance of R&D is in addressing end, irrigation will require significantly UK AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH & the coming water supply crisis. In 2009, proposed are less welcome. The EU has DEVELOPMENT (R&D) improved applied research. Irrigation it was estimated that humans consumed is an essential tool for increasing crop placed disproportionate emphasis on By 2050, the world will need to produce environmental ‘greening’ policies as part 54 per cent of the world’s freshwater yields, as demonstrated by the fact that of the CAP. Under the plans, 30 per cent supply, 70 per cent of which went on although irrigated areas account for just of direct support to farmers through agriculture. If per capita consumption 20 per cent of the world’s total cultivated the CAP will be conditional on following rises across the globe at the rate seen area, they produce almost 50 per cent of within developed countries, this could its food.141 mandatory actions deemed beneficial 138 to the environment. Likewise, in an increase to 90 per cent by 2025. This problem is compounded by the fact that There are also compelling financial unwelcome return to de facto set-aside motivations for undertaking agricultural policies, farmers will also be obliged farmers face increasing competition for dwindling water supplies from the R&D. According to the Royal Agricultural to set aside 7 per cent of their land for 139 Society of England, estimated returns on ecological purposes.133 world’s many rapidly growing cities. Farmers are going to need to produce investment in publicly-funded agricultural Supported by the National Farmers’ more food with comparatively less R&D range from 10 per cent to over 50 Union (NFU), the government has water, and in this endeavour science will per cent. A recent UK estimate shows a rightly criticised the plan, remarking have a vital role to play. marginal rate of return on R&D of about that “taking 7 per cent of land out of 17 per cent after taking into account ‘spill- production when demand is increasing 70 per cent more food than it does As the Royal Society has noted, water overs’ from private and international 142 would not be sensible”.134 presently in order to feed 2 billion stress is particularly acute in hot, dry R&D. The vast gains in agricultural additional people and meet greater regions of the world, where much output that took place as a consequence The UK government should work with increases in nutritional demands. larger amounts of water are needed to of such investment led directly to the its European partners to oppose the Moreover, this food will also have to produce the same grain yield than in less dramatic drop in global food prices over 140 inclusion of ‘greening’ policies in the be produced using proportionally less stressed regions. A high priority for a period of several decades, from the CAP should such policies come at the water, on about the same amount of the future, therefore, will be to develop mid-1970s to the mid-2000s.

38 39 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD Somalia; Ethiopia; Sudan; Zimbabwe; SECURITY, FOREIGN POLICY AND North Korea; Yemen.150 Environmental DEVELOPMENT POLICY considerations such as extreme weather The world currently produces more than or lack of rainfall are only one component enough to feed the global population of of the problem. It is telling, for instance, 7 billion people adequately, with some that Israel, a country with the same estimates suggesting that sufficient level of food security risk as Portugal or food is already grown to feed 11.5 Spain, has just half the annual rainfall of 151 billion people.148 The problem is that Ethiopia. It is certainly no coincidence this food is not equally distributed— that, to date, no functioning democracy 152 while some states have more than has ever suffered from famine. enough, others have much too little. The ongoing famine in the Horn Consequently, improving access must of Africa has been described as a be as much a priority in achieving global —‘governance drought’ that took food security as enhancing production. place not because insufficient food Some campaigners have gone so far was available in theory, but because as to argue that measures to improve the systems required to get it where food production are unnecessary, and it needs to be in time are inadequate. Between 1953 and 1984, the productivity per cent increase in yields; intelligent that improving access, reducing waste growth of UK agriculture – Total Factor breeding techniques that have led to The drought was predicted by various and rectifying imbalances in the global early-warning systems including the Productivity (TFP) – was 1.68 per cent fundamental improvements in cereal food system can solve the problem. This per annum. However, between 1984 and resistance to pest drought and adverse Famine Early Warning Systems Network 145 argument is unrealistic. Distributional (FEWS NET) and the Arid Lands project 2000, growth slowed to just 0.68 per cent, temperatures worldwide; and the imbalances are not the only concern, with the UK falling behind leading EU development of a new variety of broccoli as early as 2010, but very little was either for those in the rich, developed 153 countries. Although a number of factors that is suspected to lower the risk of heart done to prepare. In Kenya, food has 146 world, or for the world’s poorest rotted needlessly because the transport contributed to this relative decline, cuts disease and some forms of cancer. The countries. If output falls below demand, to agricultural R&D investment have value of these and similar advances has infrastructure needed to get it to market 154 143 food prices will rise. Higher global food is inadequate. been identified as a primary driver. been immense, and represents exactly prices will put food still further out of An apparent reduction in the status of the kind of developments that the world reach for those who need it most, whilst In the October 2010 Comprehensive applied research as against basic science will need to feed itself sustainably by price volatility wreaks havoc with small Spending Review (CSR), the government research, combined with a reduction in 2050. Since many developing countries farmers who are left not knowing how committed to enshrine the size of the the number of scholarships available still lack the requisite R&D capabilities or where to invest.149 Likewise, changing UK’s overseas development budget in for PhD training in applied agricultural to meet their food security challenges habits is far easier said than done, and law, at 0.7 per cent of GDP, from 2013.155 research, has perhaps also resulted in unassisted, leadership from countries today the food system is obliged to a reduction in the number of scientists such as the UK will become all the more balance growing food concerns with involved in research directly linked to important. new environmental ones. the industry and those who remain are getting older.144 Finally, the UK government should Consequently, policymakers need to find not neglect the importance of R&D in ways of improving access to food without This is precisely the wrong direction for preventing agriculture-related diseases adversely affecting the existing market, the UK to be travelling in. Retaining its which can have an enormous economic and must look at the wider causes of food status as a world-leader in innovative impact. Animal and crop diseases cost insecurity, in particular poor governance research should be a priority for the UK, the British economy some £1.24 billion and state failure. Almost every country given the relative decline of a number per annum, and developments to reduce in the world currently assessed to be of other sectors of its economy. Over these losses must be treated as a priority 147 suffering from high or extreme levels of the past few decades, notable UK-led area of research. food insecurity is also ranked as amongst agricultural innovations have included the world’s weakest states. The roll-call the introduction of semi-dwarfing genes of names is all-too familiar: DR Congo; into wheat stocks, responsible for a 14

40 41 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

However, numerous studies have shown billion people out of hunger.158 that simply spending more money on aid is not the answer to these deep-rooted In the developing world, most food is problems, nor are projects limited to wasted before it reaches the consumer. providing immediate food aid, or even Inadequate anti-pest safeguards on helping farmers to produce more food farms allow rats, mice or locusts to sustainably. Improving farm productivity eat crops in the field or in storage. achieves little if the transport Poor road infrastructure and a lack of proper refrigeration result in goods infrastructure needed to get that food 159 to market is not in place. Likewise, spoiling in transit. As food constitutes producing a sufficient food supply is a far greater proportion of household irrelevant if failing economic policies income in poor countries – as much result in inflated prices that prevent the as 60-80 per cent in some cases – a population from being able to buy it. comparatively small amount is wasted by consumers once they obtain it.160 Sensitivity to accusations of colonialism Consequently, dealing with food waste have made many European countries— in the developing world is primarily a and the UK in particular—overly cautious matter of improving the capacity of food about efforts to coordinate altruistic producers to reduce waste before food most responsible for wasting food are Unfortunately, the reality remains development objectives with measures reaches the market. consumers themselves. According to the that the impact of purely voluntary that robustly seek to improve the quality EU, households produce approximately campaigns and awareness-raising will of governance in target countries. This As in the developed world, this entails 42 per cent of the total amount of food only ever be limited. such measures as building proper waste, food manufacturers 39 per cent, cannot continue. Food insecurity, Retailer food waste can be curtailed resource conflict and governance are silos, better roads and providing better retailers 5 per cent and the catering refrigeration. sector 14 per cent.161 using food banks, which collect food intimately interlinked, and development surpluses from retailers, wholesalers, policy must clearly reflect that fact. However, these solutions are expensive, Food waste by consumers is primarily bakeries, auctions and individuals FOOD WASTE and will require significant investment a behavioural issue. In order to change through national and local collections from committed sources, including attitudes, awareness campaigns can and redistribute the supplies it to those One of the most egregious contributors multilateral donors such as the World play an important role. For instance, in need.162 to food insecurity is the staggering Bank, the African Development Bank distinguishing between food date labels amount of food that is wasted each and the Asian Development Bank as well (for example, the difference between Another area requiring further year. It is estimated that in both rich as individual government sources such “best before” and “use by”); advocating attention and research is EU legislation countries and poor, some 30-50 per as the UK’s Department for International re-using food; food composting; and governing the feeding of food waste to cent of all food produced rots away Development (DFID). The government livestock. Since 2001, feeding catering 156 encouraging refrigerated food storage uneaten. According to the FAO, post- should also be ready to advocate can improve both food safety and reduce and domestic food waste to livestock harvest waste in Africa explains why measures that broaden access to pest food waste. has been prohibited. Whilst retail and many smallholders are net purchasers or drought-resistant crops amongst poor manufacturing non-meat foodstuffs can of food, even though they grow enough farmers, and to support research into Ultimately, however, the government be fed to livestock, this does not apply for their families to eat. For its part, it is the development of these products. must recognise that the majority if that food has been handled under the estimated that UK households waste 25 of consumers will not change their same roof as meat, unless the operator per cent of all the food they buy.157 More could always be done towards habits until there is sufficient financial can demonstrate that it cannot come these ends, but as is the case more incentive for them to do so. There are into contact with meat.163 In both the developed and developing broadly, development policies must legitimate questions about whether the world, initiatives that successfully reduce combine these ground-level targeted government should penalise its citizens Objections to the relaxation of legislation food waste can contribute towards measures with efforts to improve for how they choose to use food that in this area relate to the fact that the redressing global food insecurity. It has governance deficiencies that perpetuate they have purchased, and whether outbreaks of both Foot & Mouth disease been estimated that eliminating the such failures in the first place. such a course would even be possible. (2001) and classical swine fever (2000) millions of tonnes of food wasted every It is certainly not the position of this in the UK were traced back to badly- In the developed world, by contrast, those 164 year in the UK and US alone could lift a report to advocate such measures. managed swill-feeding systems. The

42 43 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security concern is that contaminated food waste of which comes at a significant Philippines do still hold emergency food to maintain.178 Most food is perishable, would represent a likely entry-point for environmental cost.170 Not only that, but reserves, the trend in recent decades and must therefore be physically stored such diseases into the UK food-chain if soy imports are increasingly expensive, has been towards a greater reliance on in adequate facilities, and regularly regulations were relaxed. However, it has the price of soy having increased by imports from global markets to meet a rotated. It has been estimated that the been argued that such contamination almost 200 per cent in 10 years—costs given country’s food needs. In 2010-11, cost of holding grain stocks is as high as risks could be overcome by sterilising which could be abated by replacement the FAO estimated that global cereal 15-20 per cent of the value of the stock food waste before feeding it to livestock. with food waste.171 stocks declined dramatically from 534 per year.179 Some have argued that it Heating has been demonstrated to be million tonnes to 490 million tonnes, is cheaper and more efficient to hold a guaranteed way of killing pathogens EMERGENCY FOOD RESERVES although stocks are expected to remain earmarked cash reserves to purchase such as Foot & Mouth disease and The long-term problems of food price relatively constant in 2011-12, at 493 supplies from international markets classical swine fever.165 Although food rises and price volatility can only be million tonnes.173 As a developed as required. However, as the 2007/08 waste derived from meat should not solved by measures which sustainably country whose own food security is price spike demonstrated, sudden be fed to herbivores such as cows and enhance productivity and improve assessed to be high,174 the UK does and extreme price rises can nullify the sheep, such restrictions need not apply access, especially in the developing not currently have any reserve food efficacy of this approach. to omnivorous animals such as pigs and world. However, as a short-term buffer stocks of its own.175 According to the chickens. against the impact of price spikes on the government, the decision to discontinue Under such circumstances, the utility world’s poorest consumers, emergency the maintenance of intervention stores of international, if not national, food From an economic perspective, the food reserves could have an important of food was taken during the early 1990s reserves becomes more apparent. conversion of food waste into livestock role to play. owing to the reduced threat at the end However, at present, very little in the feed makes sense. According to the way of international food reserves exists. Many countries have the capacity of the Cold War, and the considerable campaigning group Food AWARE, cost (£10 million per annum at 1990 The World Food Programme (WFP) does some 18 million tonnes of edible to redistribute food from places of 176 possess grain reserves in boats around plenty to places of shortage in times of prices) of their retention. The stocks food ends up in landfill every year, that do exist are within the commercial the world, and the WFP estimates that 166 need. In a number of countries where with an annual value of £23 billion. food chain, and have been in decline in it manages to feed more than 90 million Although the government now favours governance or infrastructure is poor, this people every year.180 Anaerobic Digestion (AD) as a more environmentally-friendly method of food Although the WFP has saved many lives waste disposal than landfill, this method in response to emergencies, it is stymied has its limitations.167 As mentioned, by the fact that it is institutionally bakery products and unwanted fruit and reactive, not proactive. In the view of vegetables can be fed to livestock so long Dr David Nabarro, the UN Secretary as they have not come into contact with General’s Special Representative on Food Security and Nutrition, meat. Whereas waste producers pay in 181 the region of £80 per tonne to dispose of WFP funding is critically flawed. food waste through AD, if the food waste Funding is allocated on a year-by-year can be separated from animal products basis, and is derived primarily from it can be sold to farmers for roughly £20 humanitarian money (reactive) rather per tonne.168 than development money (proactive). The WFP was only recently permitted The conversion of food waste into to engage in futures trading and livestock feed could also have advanced purchases, critical elements environmental benefits. It has been in developing a more forward-looking estimated that between two and 500 and effective approach.182 Further 2 177 times more CO could be saved by is not the case, and countries that are recent years. reform to enable the WFP to operate in feeding food waste to pigs rather than net-food importers may also struggle to a more proactive and businesslike way 169 One of the primary objections to nation sending it for AD. As industry expert find surplus capacity when necessary.172 states maintaining food reserves is is needed, and the government should Tristram Stuart has observed, the EU prioritise these developments. Far too Although some countries such as the that this distorts markets, depends imports some 40 million tonnes of soy upon good governance, and is costly many people are dying from starvation for pig feed every year, the production because action is not taken until after

44 45 Critical Areas for Further Consideration Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security a crisis has developed, as has been the problems and developing contingency voluntary implementation of best reactive resilience must also be a case with the ongoing famine in the Horn plans to help prevent them. Second, practice. Whether or not this remains primary concern. The government of Africa. Serious consideration should policymakers must always recognise that the case, the CPNI must continue to should recognise that all crises are also be given to building emergency because not every shock is preventable, work with the food industry, particularly fundamentally local. The government food reserves held by the WFP to further investment in community resilience is in assessing emerging threats such as must therefore assess how local enhance its capacity to respond to and necessary in case specific targets are cyber-damage, to assess which areas communities would cope if confronted prevent food-related crises. taken down. Third, it is vital to invest demand closer attention. with a significant disruption to the food in “adaptive resilience”, drawing upon chain, and work with them to develop One potentially positive initiative past experience when deciding future The most recent assessment of business mechanisms capable of mitigating such currently being trialled is a food reserve policy and making decisions that competence on resilience was carried shocks and disruptions. system designed to meet the needs of out in 2006 by Dr Helen Peck, in Defra- food-importing developing countries sponsored report, Resilience in the Food Food companies are comparatively with limited capacity. The proposal, Chain: A Study of Business Continuity more engaged in reactive resilience. put to G20 agriculture ministers at Management in the Food and Drink All of the organisations surveyed in Dr their inaugural meeting on th 24 -25th Industry. This report, which is referenced Peck’s study had some form of IT-related May 2011, involves maintaining food in the UK government’s more recent continuity planning/disaster recovery in reserves that can be accessed by eligible food security assessment, concluded place.191 However, even when it comes states at affordable prices. Dr Nabarro that few British companies engage in to reactive BCM, most companies do maintains that this is not a price-control proactive or preventative BCM.187 As not view this as a necessity. Those mechanism; rather food would be made is the case across the UK food chain, companies that do engage in BCM do available at the lower end of the price those companies included in the report so primarily at the behest of clients, or index in the event of sudden price rises prefer to operate on a ‘just-in-time’ as for reasons of compliance. Certainly, or fluctuations. The initiative was agreed opposed to ‘just-in-case’ basis, due to when companies engage in BCM, it is for to at a meeting of G20 development resource constraints, lack of expertise reasons of enlightened commercial self- and finance ministers in late September and pressures to maximise profits.188 interest; considerations of the ‘public 2011, and will be tested initially in West Moreover, there is still comparatively good’ or the maintenance of operations Africa, in coordination with the regional limited awareness of the importance of in times of national emergency do not body, the Economic Community of West BCM or food security at the company seem to play a part.192 183 involve replacing or upgrading physical African States (ECOWAS). Should this infrastructure and logistics networks.185 level, although this is a growing initiative prove successful, there will be concern.189 The primary concern for The government should enhance efforts a strong case for rolling it out in other The CPNI has produced an extensive list these companies in the event of a crisis to raise awareness of the importance of parts of the world with high levels of of measures that the UK food industry is brand reputation.190 BCM amongst the agricultural industry, in particular through the Food Chain food insecurity. should take to minimise the threat of 193 disruption to their services. This includes As both the CPNI and individuals such Emergency Liaison Group (FCELG). UK FOOD-CHAIN RESILIENCE training managers to assess the kind of as Sir David Omand have recognised, The FCELG is a Defra-chaired body which UK food security is currently assessed threats to which their sites or services may proactive or preventative resilience is meets quarterly to discuss issues of as high by both the UK government and be vulnerable; employing appropriate only one part of the solution. Given concern to the food industry in terms non-governmental organisations that vetting procedures; controlling physical the size and complexity of the UK food of natural hazards and malicious threat. assess food security at the international access to premises; controlling accesses chain, it is virtually impossible to prevent The group includes representatives from level.184 However, the UK food chain to services, materials and processes; and every attack or crisis. Consequently, the food sector industries, as well as remains vulnerable to shocks, whether ensuring the secure storage of transport accidental, natural or malicious, and it is vehicles.186 imperative that policymakers undertake measures that minimise the vulnerability This document, entitled A P S 96, is of the UK food chain. only advisory and is non-binding. This is consistent with the government’s Sir David Omand has identified current relationship with the food three levels of resilience. First, the industry on resilience issues, which identification level: identifying potential is non-regulatory and relies upon the

46 47 Critical Areas for Further Consideration relevant government organisations. practical and financial constraints will always impede efforts to maximise In order to ascertain the extent to which food chain resilience and must strike a the food industry is taking resilience balance between enhancing resilience seriously, and voluntarily implementing and ensuring that the UK food industry the government’s recommendations, remains competitive. the government should consider commissioning an updated version of Dr Adaptive resilience, which is necessarily Peck’s 2006 report. a long-term process, must also have an important role to play in these The reality, however, is that individual efforts, yet questions remain as to businesses – especially small ones who will pay the cost. Ultimately, the – cannot be expected to keep the consumer will pay for measures taken by national interest at the centre of companies to increase their resilience, their considerations with regards to but the government should also assess the resilience of their operations. whether the UK’s food security warrants Compliance will always constitute the subsidising resilience-upgrades by the most significant driver of change in food industry. Either way, the CPNI this area, and the government should should work with the food industry and perhaps consider ways to increase make the case for the business benefits their resilience through mandatory of investing in greater resilience in the compliance without damaging bottom long-term. lines unreasonably. Clearly, significant

48 49 Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

Conclusion

The purpose of this report has been to can contribute to conflict in regions highlight the interconnectedness of food such as Africa and the Middle East. security and other areas of concern for For a globalised trading nation such as the UK government. the UK, conflicts overseas jeopardise British interests and can necessitate a At a time of extreme economic fragility, British response. Disruptions to trade the potential impact of rising food prices flows, the generation of refugees and on the British economy represents a very the international costs of post-conflict real cause for concern. Rising food prices reconstruction offer compelling reasons in the UK will only reduce the amount why UK policymakers should proactively consumers spend on other sectors of pursue measures that minimise food the economy and further threaten an insecurity. As the conflict in Libya already halting economic recovery. has shown, food insecurity – even if Internationally, rising food prices in indirectly – can contribute to situations major emerging markets such as China that require a British military response. and India constitute one of the principal It is likely that rapidly rising food prices drivers of high inflation, which is already in the MENA region acted as one of the slowing economic growth in those catalysts which sparked the uprisings in countries. Given that these countries are Tunisia and beyond. amongst the most important drivers of global economic growth, factors which The fact that the UK is unlikely to suffer damage that growth should concern from large-scale popular unrest related Western economies, including the UK. to food prices or scarcity does not mean the UK food chain is not vulnerable to Whilst some of the drivers of rising shocks and disruptions. The UK food- prices are beyond the control of UK chain has suffered from a number of policymakers – for instance, natural serious non-malicious shocks in the disasters or the pace of agricultural past two decades which cost the British reform in economies such as China – economy some £15 billion and led to other factors can be influenced by UK the loss of 630 lives. As bodies such as policy, particularly at theE uropean level. the CPNI and other industry experts As a major global food producer and have warned, agro-terrorist attacks, a leading player in the formulation of particularly if introduced upstream in global agricultural policy in areas such the food chain, could cause serious as biofuels and GM foods, the EU has a damage. crucial role to play in ensuring that the right policies are pursued not only to These reasons present a persuasive guarantee that all those living within case for policymakers to prioritise its borders have adequate access to food security in the coming years. nutritious and affordable food, but also The government must recognise that to contribute to global food security. environmental measures that directly undermine agricultural productivity In addition to jeopardising economic and take needed food off the market growth, rising prices and food insecurity must be reformed. The drive for biofuels

50 51 Conclusion Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security represents one such policy that should and developing world, and measures to be reconsidered, and the introduction of reduce this waste must be introduced. End Notes environmental quotas into the Common In order to ameliorate the immediate Agricultural Policy should be resisted. effects of price spikes or other food- The government must also address the related crises, the government should problems caused by knee-jerk resistance seriously consider efforts to enhance 1. The Government Office for Science, 13. Ibid. to yield-enhancing technologies, including emergency international food reserves Foresight: The Future of Food and 14. Thisismoney.co.uk, Tesco battles crop protection products and GMOs. As and reform the World Food Programme. Farming, London, 2011, p.67 ‘most challenging retail market’ various bodies from the United Nations The G20 pilot programme currently 2. Wallop, Harry, Britain to be biggest in a generation as Britons tighten to the Royal Society have argued, these being initiated in West Africa may country in Europe by 2050, The spending, 5 October 2011, http:// technologies are not the panacea to constitute an important model to follow. Telegraph, 29 July 2010 www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/ global food security problems, but they In the long-term, perhaps the most 3. department for Environment, Food and markets/article-2045446/Tesco-battles- represent an important part of the important step British policymakers can Rural Affairs, Overseas trade statistics: Food, challenging-retail-market-generation. solution. The government must also invest take to address the aforementioned feed and drink, 2 November 2011, http:// html (last accessed 15 November 2011) in agricultural research and innovation. problems is to promote improved www.defra.gov.uk/statistics /foodfarm/ 15. Tesco PLC, Christmas & New Year In the next 40 years, the world will not governance, especially in the developing food/overseastrade/ (last accessed 15 Trading Statement, FE Investigate, 12 January 2012, http://www. only need to produce 70 per cent more world. Poor governance impedes the November 2011) 4. Ibid. investegate.co.uk/Article. food than it does now, it will need to do economic progress, infrastructure aspx?id=201201120700254213V (last so on roughly the same amount of land, development and productive investment 5. BBC, The cost of food: facts and figures, accessed 18 January 2012) 16 October 2008, http://news.bbc. using comparatively less water, and with vital to dealing with the agricultural 16. crossley, Thomas F., Low, Hamish less harm to the environment. Achieving deficiencies that continue to blight co.uk/1/hi/world/7284196.stm (last accessed 15 November 2011) and O’Dea, Cormac (Economic, and this task will be impossible without so many countries. As this report has Social Research Council), Household considerable agricultural innovation. sought to demonstrate, this is a concern 6. FAO, FAO Food Price Index, 3 Consumption Through Recent the government should take seriously, November 2011, http://www.fao. Recessions, IFS Working Paper W11/18, Increasing food production alone is not only for the sake of the world’s most org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/ Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, 17 foodpricesindex/en/ (last accessed 15 not the entire answer. Every year, vulnerable people, but also to protect October 2011, p.18 hundreds of millions of tonnes of food November 2011) British interests. 17. Sky News, Oil prices biggest risk to is wasted across both the developed 7. oecd-FAO, Agricultural Outlook 2011- UK growth, March 29 2011, http:// 2020, June 2011, http://www.fao.org/ news.sky.com/home/business/article/ fileadmin/user_upload/ newsroom/ 15962404 (last accessed 15 November docs/Outlookflyer.pdf (last accessed 15 2011) November 2011) 18. Trading Economics, China GDP 8. department for Environment, Food and growth rate, 2011, http://www. Rural Affairs,Family Food 2010, London, tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp- 2011, p.1 growth-annual (last accessed 3 January 9. Ibid., p.55 2011) 10. Hawkes, Alex, Households budgets hit 19. Trading Economics, India GDP by frozen pay and rising food prices, The growth rate, 2011, http://www. Guardian, 3 August 2011 tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp- 11. BBC, UK economy shrinks by 0.2% in growth (last accessed 3 January 2011) last three months of 2011, 25 January 20. city AM, Governor: Time is running out, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ 19 October 2011, http://www.cityam. business-16715080 (last accessed 26 com/news-and-analysis/governor- January 2012) time-running-out (last accessed 15 12. Trading Economics, United Kingdom November 2011) Inflation Rate rate,2011, http:// 21. WTO, European Union trade profile, www.tradingeconomics.com/united- http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/ kingdom/inflation-cpi (last accessed 18 WSDB CountryPFView.aspx?Language= January 2011) E&Country=E27,IN,CN (last accessed 15

52 53 End Notes Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

November 2011) Organisation of the United 38. Ibid. 51. directorate-General for Research 22. Back, Aaron, China’s economic growth Nations, 2010, http://faostat.fao. 39. The Government Office for Science, and Innovation, Biotechnologies, slows, The Wall Street Journal, 18 org/site/567/DesktopDefault. Foresight: The Future of Food and Agriculture, Food, A decade of EU- October 2011, http://online.wsj.com/ aspx?PageID=567#ancor (last accessed Farming, Final Project Report, London, funded GMO research (2001-2010), article/SB100014240529702043461 6 January 2012) 2011, p.22 European Union, 2010, p.16, http:// ec.europa.eu/research/biosociety 04576637874081066658.html (last 31. development, Concepts and Doctrine 40. Polansek, Tom, Global food prices accessed 15 November 2011) Centre (DCDC), Strategic Trends /pdf/a_decade_of_eu-funded_ stay high, The Wall Street Journal, 9 gmo_research.pdf (last accessed 15 23. BBC, China cuts growth target to 7.5% Programme: Global Strategic Trends September 2011 – Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence November 2011) in 2012, 5 March 2012, http://www. 41. Burrell, Alison (ed.), Impacts of the EU bbc.co.uk/news/business-17254484 Strategic Trends Programme, London, 52. international Service for the Acquisition 12 January 2010, p.110, biofuel target on agricultural markets of Agri-biotech Applications, Global (last accessed 21 March 2012) and land use: a comparative modelling 32. central Intelligence Agency, The World Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM 24. Trading Economics, India GDP assessment, JRC Scientific and Technical Crops: 2010, 2010, http://www.isaaa. growth rate, 2011, http://www. Factbook, 2011, https://www.cia.gov/ Reports, Publications Office of the library/publications/the-world-factbook/ org/resources/publications/briefs/42/ tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp- European Union, Luxembourg, p. 10 executivesummary/default.asp (last growth (last accessed 3 January 2011) index.html (last accessed 6 January 2012); also, FAOSTAT food production 42. Hellsten, Iina, Focus On Metaphors: The accessed 18 January 2012) 25. orlik, Tom, China’s Food-Price datasets, Food and Agriculture Case Of “Frankenfood” On The Web, 53. Whitman, Deborah, Genetically Indigestion, The Wall Street Journal, 22 Organisation of the United Nations, JCMC 8 (4), July 2003 Modified Foods: Harmful or Helpful?, September 2011 2010, http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/ 43. Gloden, Frederic, Who’s Afraid of CSA Discovery Guides, April 2000, 26. NetIndian, India’s food inflation rate in DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=567#ancor FrankenFood, Time Magazine, 21 p.8, http://www.fhs.d211.org/ double digit territory again at 10.60%, (last accessed 6 January 2012) November 1999 departments/science/mduncan/ 20 October 2011, http://netindian. 33. Rickard, Séan, The Value of Crop 44. eurActiv,EU GMO ban was illegal, bioweb/Biotechnology/Genetically%20 in/news/2011/10/20/00016639/ Protection: An Assessment of the WTO rules, 12 May 2006, http://www. Modified%20Foods.pdf (last accessed indias-food-inflation-rate-double-digit- Full Benefits for the Food Chain and euractiv.com/trade/eu-gmo-ban-illegal- 02/02/2012) territory-again-1060 (last accessed 15 Living Standards, The Crop Protection wto-rules/article-155197 (last accessed 54. carpenter, Janet, GM crops can benefit November 2011); Association, Peterborough, November 15 November 2011) farmers, 21 April 2010, The Guardian BBC, Indian inflation eases as 2010, p.8 45. europa Bio Report, Approvals of GMOS 55. Miller, Henry, How we engineered food prices fall, 14 February 2012, 34. european Council, Directive 2009/28/ in the European Union, The European the food crisis, 20 March 2011, The http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ EC of the European Parliament and Association for Bioindustries, Brussels, Guardian business-17023787 (last accessed 21 of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the October 2011, p.10 March 2012) 56. Jones, Jonathan DG, The cost of promotion of the use of energy from 46. Vidal, John, Legal doubts over EU plans spurning GM crops is too high, 21 July 27. orlik, Tom, China’s Food-Price renewable sources and amending to give states choice on whether to 2010, The Guardian Indigestion, The Wall Street Journal, 22 and subsequently repealing Directives grow GM, 15 November 2010, The September 2011 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC, EUR- 57. World Hunger Education Service, Guardian 2011 World Hunger and Poverty Facts 28. FAOSTAT food production Lex, 23 April 2009, http://eur-lex. europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ. 47. Ibid. and Statistics, 2011, http://www. datasets, Food and Agriculture worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/ Organisation of the United do?uri=CELEX:32009L0028:EN:NOT (last 48. europa Bio Report, Approvals of GMOS accessed 19 January 2012) in the European Union, The European world%20hunger%20facts%202002.htm Nations, 2010, http://faostat.fao. (last accessed 15 November 2011) org/site/567/DesktopDefault. 35. The Economist, Plagued by politics – Association for Bioindustries, Brussels, aspx?PageID=567#ancor (last accessed biofuels are an examples of what not to October 2011, p.10 58. Self Nutrition Data, Nutrition Facts, 6 January 2012) do, 24 February 2011 49. europa, Questions and answers on Sorghum, http://www.nutritiondata. the low level presence (LLP) of GMOs self.com (last accessed 14 November 29. crop Protection Association, Crop 36. The World Bank, How global biofuel 2011) protection industry welcomes Chinese expansion could affect the economy, in feed imports, 24 June 2011, http:// Government crackdown on counterfeit environment and food supply, 27 June europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction. 59. Reuters, Kenya approves law to allow pesticides, 24 October 2011, http:// 2011, http://econ.worldbank.org/ do?reference=MEMO/11/451&format GM crops, Reuters, 4 July 2011 www.cropprotection.org.uk/news/crop- WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/0,,content =HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLan 60. du Venage, Gavin, Africa modifies its protection-industry-welcomes-chinese- MDK:22946809~pagePK:64165- 401~pi guage=en (last accessed 15 November stance on GM crops, The National, 29 government-crackdown-on-counterfeit- PK:64165026~theSitePK:469372,00. 2011) July 2011 pesticides.aspx (last accessed 15 html (last accessed 15 November 2011) 50. Key, S., Ma, J.K., and Drake, P.M., 61. Ibid. November 2011) 37. The Economist, Plagued by politics – Genetically modified plants and human health, Journal of the Royal Society of 62. The Institute of Science in Society, 30. FAOSTAT food production biofuels are an examples of what not to Open letter to the Government of datasets, Food and Agriculture do, 24 February 2011 Medicine 101 (6), June 2008, p.290-8

54 55 End Notes Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

the United States of America, the approaching a violent tipping point, The Strategy of the UK: A Strong Britain in 90. centre for the Protection of National World Food Programme, the World Guardian, 25 August 2011 an Age of Uncertainty, The Stationary Infrastructure, Defending Food and Health Organisation, and the Food 71. FAO, FAO Food Price Index, 3 Office, London, October 2010 Drink: Guidance for the deterrence, and Agriculture Organisation, 2 November 2011, http://www.fao. 82. Paice, Jim, Department for Environment, detection and defeat of ideologically September 2002, http://www.i-sis.org. org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/ Food and Rural Affairs Written Answers, motivated and other forms of malicious uk/GMfoodaid.php?printing=yes (last foodpricesindex/en/ (last accessed 15 Hansard, 17 January 2011, http:// attack on food and drink and their accessed 27 January 2012) November 2011) www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ supply arrangements, British Standards Institution, London, March 2010, p.2 63. derbyshire, David, Europe’s Opposition 72. Guyler Delva, Joseph and Loney, Jim, cm201011/cmhansrd/cm110117/ to GM is arrogant hypocrisy, Kenyan Haiti’s government fall after flood riots, text/110117w0001.htm (last accessed 91. Bender, Sir Brian, Interview, 10 October scientist warns, The Observer, 23 Reuters, 12 April 2008, http://www. 15 November 2011) 2011 October 2011 reuters.com/article/2008/04/13/us- 83. department for Environment, Food and 92. anderson, Iain (ed.), Foot and Mouth 64. Hoskins, Peter, Warning of ‘Food haiti-idUSN1228245020080413 (last Rural Affairs, Food Statistics Pocketbook Disease 2001: Lessons to be Learned Price Riots’ in the UK, Sky News, 9 accessed 15 November 2011) 2010, 2010, p.19, http://www.defra. Inquiry Report, The StationaryO ffice, March 2011, http://news.sky.com/ 73. Kagwanja, Peter and Kimaru, Thomas, gov.uk/statistics/files/defra-stats-food- London, 22 July 2002, p.10 home /business/article/15948496 (last Madagascar Regional Path to Peace, pocketbook-2010.pdf (last accessed 15 93. Comparisons with the 1967 FMD accessed 15 November 2011) API Policy Brief No. 1, Africa Policy November 2011) outbreak, Comparisons with the 65. The Permanent Mission of Germany Institute, 5 November 2009,http:// 84. Peck, Helen, Resilience in the Food 1967 FMD outbreak, http://archive. to the United Nations New York, www.africapi.org/siteimages/ Chain: A Study of Business Continuity defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/farmanimal/ Concept Note for Open Debate of Madagascar-Africa_Policy_Brief.pdf Management in the Food and Drink diseases/atoz/fmd/documents/ the Security Council, 19 July 2011, (last accessed 15 November 2011) Industry, Department for Environment, fmd-comparisons-1967.pdf, p.9-10; http://www.new-york-un.diplo.de/ 74. amber, S., Bailey, K., Kiff, A., Lang, T., Food and Rural Affairs, London, July also Defra, Foot and mouth outbreak Vertretung/newyorkvn/en/__pr/ Lee, R., Marsden, T., Simons, D. And 2006 statistics, http://archive.defra.gov.uk/ Press_20releases/PM__2011/110719_ Tibbs, H. , Food Futures: Rethinking UK 85. centre for the Protection of National foodfarm/ farmanimal/diseases/atoz/ 20Impact_20of_20Climate_20Change. Strategy, A Chatham House Report, Infrastructure, Defending Food and fmd/about/stats.htm (last accessed 15 html?archive=2990092 (last accessed Chatham House, London, 2009, p.8 Drink: Guidance for the deterrence, November 2011) 15 November 2011) 75. development, Concepts and Doctrine detection and defeat of ideologically 94. BBC News, Tankers back on UK roads, 66. Maplecroft, Somalia, DR Congo top Centre (DCDC), Global Trends - Out to moti¬vated and other forms of 13 September 2000, http://news. Maplecroft’s food security risk ranking 2040, Ministry of Defence Strategic malicious attack on food and drink bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/922226.stm (last – Horn of Africa food crisis worsened Trends Programme, London, 12 January and their supply arrangements, British accessed 27 January 2012) by human factors, 31 August 2011, 2010, p.106 Standards Institution, London, March 95. Sleep, Catherine, UK: Supermarkets http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ 2010, p.3 76. Ibid. urge end to panic buying as fuel crisis food_security.html (last accessed 15 86. centre for the Protection of National deepens, Just-Food, 13 September November 2011) 77. Kay, Nicholas, Foreign and Infrastructure, Defending Food and 2000, http://www.just-food.com/ 67. Subbaraman, Rob; Varma, Sonal; Darby, Commonwealth Office,http://blogs. Drink: Guidance for the deterrence, news/supermarkets-urge-end-to-panic- Sean and Job, Owen, The coming fco.gov.uk/roller/kay/ (last accessed 15 detection and defeat of ideologically buying-as-fuel-crisis-deepens_id89520. surge in food prices, Nomura, Global November 2011) motivated and other forms of malicious aspx (last accessed 27 January 2012) Economics and Strategy, 8 September 78. Ibid. attack on food and drink and their 96. BBC News, Action on vital fuel supplies, 2010, http://www.nomura.com/ 79. Fletcher, Martin, Dressing-down for supply arrangements, British Standards 12 September 200, http://news. europe/resources/pdf/080910. pdf (last envoy over blog on ‘Khartoum starving’, Institution, London, March 2010, p.15 bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/920527.stm (last accessed 15 November 2011) The Times, 3 November 2011, www. 87. omand, Sir David, Interview, 25 August accessed 27 January 2012) 68. FAOSTAT food production thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/africa/ 2011 97. department for Environment, Food datasets, Food and Agriculture article3214608.ece (last accessed 15 88. omand, Sir David, Interview, 25 August and Rural Affairs,UK Food Security Organisation of the United November 2011) 2011 Assessment: Detailed Analysis, The Nations, 2010, http://faostat.fao. 80. McNeish, Hannah, Sudan Battles 89. centre for the Protection of National Stationary Office, London, January org/site/567/DesktopDefault. Rebels in Blue Nile State, Global Post, 2010, p.75 aspx?PageID=567#ancor (last accessed Infrastructure, Defending Food and 9 November 2011, http://www. Drink: Guidance for the deterrence, 98. Ibid., p.75 6 January 2012) globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/ detection and defeat of ideologically 99. Ibid., p.82 69. Zurayk, Rami, Use your loaf: why food africa/111103/sudan-south-rebels-blue- motivated and other forms of malicious prices were crucial in the Arab Spring, nile-khartoum-bashir (last accessed 15 attack on food and drink and their 100. FAO, FAO Food Price Index, 3 The Guardian, 17 August 2011 November 2011) supply arrangements, British Standards November 2011, http://www.fao. 70. carrington, Damien, Are food prices 81. cabinet Office,National Security Institution, London, March 2010, p.15 org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/

56 57 End Notes Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

foodpricesindex/en/ (last accessed 15 112. europa Bio Report, Approvals of GMOS Russia lifts grain export ban, 20 May London, 2009, p.20 November 2011) in the European Union, The European 2011, http://www.agrimoney.com/ 137. europa, The European Commission 101. European Council, Directive 2009/28/ Association for Bioindustries, Brussels, news/wheat-tumbles-after-russia- proposes a new partnership between EC of the European Parliament and October 2011, p.11 lifts-grain-export-ban--3196.html (last Europe and the farmers, 12 October of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the 113. Ibid. , p.6 accessed 15 November 2011) 2011, http://europa.eu/rapid/ promotion of the use of energy from 114. Ibid. , p.12 127. Reform the CAP, Policies: Tariffs, http:// pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/11 renewable sources and amending www.reformthecap.eu/issues/policy- /1181&format=HTML &aged=0&languag and subsequently repealing Directives 115. Rowe, Mike, Interview, 28 October 2011 instruments/tariffs (last accessed 15 e=EN&guiLanguage=en (last accessed 15 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC, EUR- 116. department for Environment, Food and November 2011) November 2011) Lex, 23 April 2009, http://eur-lex. Rural Affairs, http://www.defra.gov.uk/ 128. Hannan, Daniel, Scrap the CAP, The 138. amber, S., Bailey, K., Kiff, A., Lang, T., Lee, europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ. environment/quality/gm/ (last accessed Telegraph, 7 December 2008 R., Marsden, T., Simons, D. And Tibbs, H. do?uri=CELEX:32009L0028:EN:NOT (last 15 November 2011) , Food Futures: Rethinking UK Strategy, A accessed 19 January 2012) 129. National Farmers’ Union, Food 117. The Government Office for Science, production the objective, says Cioloş, 31 Chatham House Report, Chatham House, 102. cock, Matthew,Plant pests: the biggest Foresight: The Future of Food and October 2011, http://www.nfuonline. London, 2009, p.8 threat to food security, BBC, 9 November Farming, London, 2011 com/News/Food-production-the- 139. The Economist, No easy fix: Simply using 2011, http://www. bbc.co.uk/news/ 118. Baulcombe, David, Reaping the objective,-says-Ciolos/ (last accessed 15 more of everything to produce more science-environment-15623490 (last benefits: Science and the sustainable November 2011) food will not work, The Economist, 24 accessed 15 November 2011) intensification of global agriculture, 130. World Trade Organisation,Trade Policy February 2011 103. european Commission, Policy for Royal Society Report, The Royal Society, Review – Report by the Secretariat: 140. Baulcombe, David, Reaping the a sustainable use of pesticides: the London, 2009, p.ix European Communities, 22 January benefits: Science and the sustainable story behind the strategy, Office for 119. The Government Office for Science, 2007, p.xi, http://www.wto.org/english/ intensification of global agriculture, Official Publications of the European Foresight: The Future of Food and tratop_e/tpr_e/tp278_e.htm Royal Society Report, The Royal Society, Communities, Luxembourg, 2007 Farming, Final Project Report, The 131. HM Revenue and Customs, IHTM24064 London, 2009, p.12 104. department for Environment, Food Government Office for Science, London, Agricultural purposes: Set-aside scheme, 141. Ibid. and Rural Affairs, UK Food Security 2011, p.96-7 http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/ Assessment: Detailed Analysis, The 142. Leaver, David, A new vision for UK 120. Ibid. ihtmanual/ihtm24064.htm (last accessed agricultural research and development, Stationary Office, London, January 2010, 15 November 2011) p.78 121. agriculture and Rural Development, Royal Agricultural Society of England, European Commission, EU reintroduces 132. europa, The European Commission http://www.rase.org.uk/what-we- 105. oecd-FAO, Agricultural Outlook 2011- export refunds for dairy products, 23 proposes a new partnership do/publications/journal/2008/07- 2020, June 2011, http://www.fao.org/ January 2009, http://ec.europa.eu/ between Europe and the farmers, u934824785iuuh9278.pdf (last accessed fileadmin/user_upload/ newsroom/ agriculture/newsroom/en/322.htm (last 12 October 2011, http://europa. 15 November 2011) docs/Outlookflyer.pdf (last accessed 15 accessed 15 November 2011) eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction. November 2011) 143. Thirtle, Colin et al., Explaining the 122. The Cairns Group, Cairns Group do?reference=IP/11/1181&format= Decline in UK Agricultural Productivity 106. Rickard, Sean, The Value of Crop Ambassadors call on EU to reverse recent HTML&aged=0&language=E Growth, Journal of Agricultural Protection: An assessment of the full decision on export subsidies, 27 January &guiLanguage=en (last accessed 15 Economics, Volume 55 Issue 2, July 2004, benefits for the food chain and living 2009, http://cairnsgroup.org/Pages/ November 2011) pp. 343-366 standards, Crop Protection Association, default.aspx (last accessed 15 November 133. Ibid. Peterborough, November 2010, p.4 144. commercial Farmers Group, The need 2011) 134. National Farmers’ Union, CAP Reform: for a new vision for UK agricultural 107. The World Bank, Agriculture and Rural 123. Ibid. Reaction from around the EU, 21 R&D, All-Party Parliamentary Group on Development, http://data.worldbank. 124. National Farmers’ Union, Food October 2011, http://www.nfuonline. Science and Technology, May 2008 org/topic/agriculture-and-rural- com/News/CAP-reform--Reaction- development production the objective, says Cioloş, 31 145. Webb, David and Whyte, Russel, October 2011, http://www.nfu online. from-around-the-EU/ (last accessed 15 Economic impact of the John Innes 108. europa Bio Report, Approvals of GMOS com/News/Food-production-the- November 2011) Centre, John Innes Centre, London, 2008 in the European Union, The European objective,-says-Ciolos/ (last accessed 15 135. uK Agriculture, UK Farming – an 146. John Innes Centre, British research Association for Bioindustries, Brussels, November 2011) introduction, http://www.ukagriculture. October 2011, p.9 leads to UK launch of Benforté broccoli, 125. F AO, Wheat sends food prices up, 1 com/uk_farming.cfm 4 October 2011, http://news.jic. 109. Ibid. September 2010, http://www.fao.org/ 136. Baulcombe, David, Reaping the ac.uk/2011/10/british-research-leads- 110. Rowe, Mike, Interview, 28 October 2011 news/story/en/item/ 45006/icode/ (last benefits: Science and the sustainable to-uk-launch-of-beneforte-broccoli/ (last 111. Reuters, Factbox: Details of EU proposals accessed 15 November 2011) intensification of global agriculture, accessed 15 November 2011) on GM crops, 14 March 2011 126. agrimoney.com, Wheat tumbles after Royal Society Report, The Royal Society, 147. Moredun, Annual Report 2010-

58 59 End Notes Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

2011, http://www.moredun.org.uk/ 159. The Economist, Waste not, want not: Far htm (last accessed 24 January 2012) 179. Ibid. webfm_send/297; also, Webb, David too much food never reaches the plate, 169. Feeding the 5000, Food waste facts, http:// 180. World Food Programme, Our Work: and Whyte, Russel, Economic impact of The Economist, 24 February 2011 www.feeding5k.org/food-waste-facts.php Being Ready, http://www.wfp.org/ the John Innes Centre, John Innes Centre, 160. F AO, Food and nutrition survey, http:// (last accessed 15 November 2011) our-work/being-ready (last accessed 15 Norwich, 2008, p.22 www.fao.org/ag/agp/greenercities/en/ 170. Hunt, Jeremy, Pressure mounts November 2011) 148. carrington, Damien and Vidal, John, whyuph/foodsecurity.html (last accessed to re-instate food waste into 181. Nabarro, Dr David, Interview, 22 August Global food system must be transformed 15 November 2011) livestock diets, Farmers Weekly, 7 2011 ‘on industrial revolution scale’, The 161. europa, Questions and Answers on May 2011, http://www.fwi.co.uk/ Guardian, 24 January 2011 182. Nabarro, Dr David, Interview, 22 August Food Waste Minimisation and Food Articles/06/05/2011/126682/Pressure- 2011 149. The Economist, How much is enough? Packaging Optimisation, 14 September mounts-to-re-instate-food-waste-into- The answer is less straightforward than it 2011, http://europa.eu/rapid/ livestock.htm (last accessed 24 January 183. Relief Web, G20 Ministerial Meeting on seems, The Economist, 24 February 2011 pressReleasesAction.do?reference=M 2012) Development: Joint Communiqué and EMO/11/598&format=HTML&aged=0 Preliminary Report on the Action Plan, 150. Maplecroft, Somalia, DR Congo top 171. Jenkin, Baroness, Agriculture: Animal 29 September 2011, http://reliefweb. Maplecroft’s food security risk ranking &language=EN&guiLanguage=en (last Feed – Questions for Short Debate, accessed 23 January 2012) int/node/449843 (last accessed 15 – Horn of Africa food crisis worsened Hansard, 6 December 2011, http:// November 2011) by human factors, 31 August 2011, 162. The Global Food Banking www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ Network, What is Food Banking?, ld201011/ldhansrd/text/111206-0002. 184. defra, UK Food Security Assessment: food_security.html (last accessed 15 http://gfn.convio.net/site/ htm (last accessed 24 January 2012) Detailed Analysis, The Stationary Office, London, January 2010; also, Maplecroft, November 2011) PageServer?pagename=foodbanking_ 172. Nabarro, Dr David, Interview, 22 August main (last accessed 23 January 2011) Somalia, DR Congo top Maplecroft’s food 151. Students of the World, Ethiopia, http:// 2011 security risk ranking – Horn of Africa www.studentsoftheworld.info/pageinfo_ 163. Stuart, Tristram, Waste: Uncovering the 173. F AO, Food Outlook: Global Market food crisis worsened by human factors, pays.php3?Pays=ETH &Opt=climate (last Global Food Scandal, Penguin, London, Analysis, June 2011, p.1, http://www. 31 August 2011, http://maplecroft.com/ accessed 15 November 2011) 2009, pp.238-285 fao.org/docrep/014/al978e/al9 78e00. about/news/food_security.html (last 152. Sen, Amartya, Poverty and Famines: An 164. Jenkin, Baroness, Agriculture: Animal pdf (last accessed 15 November 2011) accessed 15 November 2011) Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation, Feed – Questions for Short Debate, 174. defra, UK Food Security Assessment: 185. omand, Sir David, Interview, 25 August Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1998 Hansard, 6 December 2011, http:// Detailed Analysis, The Stationary Office, 2011 www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ 153. agency for Technical Cooperation and London, January 2010 186. cPNI, Defending Food and Drink: Development, Horn of Africa: drought ld201011/ldhansrd/text/111206-0002. htm (last accessed 24 January 2012) 175. Hansard, Department for Environment, Guidance for the deterrence, detection predictable and predicted, 1 August Fool and Rural Affairs Written Answers, and defeat of ideologically motivated 2011, http://www.acted.org/en/horn- 165. Jenkin, Baroness, Agriculture: Animal 17 January 2011, http://services. and other forms of malicious attack africa-drought-predictable-and-predicted Feed – Questions for Short Debate, parliament.uk/hansard/Commons/ on food and drink and their supply (last accessed 15 November 2011) Hansard, 6 December 2011, http:// ByDate/20110117/writtenanswers/ arrangements, British Standards 154. Ross, Will, Was the food crisis in www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ part003.html (last accessed 15 Institution, London, March 2010, p.9-10 Kenya avoidable?, 10 August 2011, ld201011/ldhansrd/text/111206-0002. November 2011) htm (last accessed 24 January 2012) 187. Peck, Helen, Resilience in the Food http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- 176. department for Environment, Food and Chain: A Study of Business Continuity africa-14458109 (last accessed 15 166. Food AWARE, Food Waste Statistics, Rural Affairs, Response to Food Security Management in the Food and Drink November 2011) http://www.foodawarecic.org.uk/food- Policy Enquiry by The Henry Jackson Industry, Department for Environment, 155. HM Treasury, Spending Review 2010, waste-statistics.htm (last accessed 24 Society, 3 February 2012 Food and Rural Affairs, The Stationary January 2012) http://cdn.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sr2010_ 177. department for Environment, Food and Office, London, July 2006, p.x completereport.pdf (last accessed 15 167. deFRA, Anaerobic Digestion Strategy Rural Affairs, Food Statistics Pocketbook 188. Ibid. , p.x November 2011) and Action Plan – A commitment to 2010, 2010, p.19, http://www.defra. 189. Ibid. , p.ix, 156. The Economist, Waste not, want not: Far increasing energy from waste through gov.uk/statistics/files/defra-stats-food- too much food never reaches the plate, Anaerobic Digestion, 22 June 2011, pocketbook-2010.pdf (last accessed 15 190. Ibid. , p.x, The Economist, 24 February 2011 http://www.defra.gov.uk/publications/ November 2011) 191. Ibid., p.ix files/anaerobic-digestion-strat-action- 157. Feeding the 5000, Food waste facts, http:// plan.pdf (last accessed 24 January 2012) 178. actionAid, No more food crises: The 192. Ibid., p.xi www.feeding5k.org/food-waste-facts.php indispensible role of food reserves, June 168. Jenkin, Baroness, Agriculture: Animal 193. IGD, Food Chain Emergency Liaison (last accessed 15 November 2011) 2011, http://www.actionaid.org /sites/ Group, 2012, http://www.igd.com/ Feed – Questions for Short Debate, files/actionaid/polcy_briefing_-_the_ 158. Vaughan, Adam, Elimination of food Hansard, 6 December 2011, http:// index.asp?id=1&fid=5&sid=44&cid=760 waste could life 1bn out of hunger, The role_of_food_reserves.pdf (last accessed (last accessed 27 January 2012) www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ 15 November 2011) Guardian, 8 September 2009 ld201011/ldhansrd/text/111206-0002.

60 61 Bibliography

Bibliography

Articles, reports & publications Key, S., Ma, J.K., and Drake, P.M., Genetically modified plants and human health, Journal Amber, S., Bailey, K., Kiff, A., Lang, T., Lee, R., of the Royal Soci­ety of Medicine 101 (6), Marsden, T., Simons, D. And Tibbs, H. June 2008 Food Futures: Rethink­ing UK Strategy, Chatham House, London, 2009 Leaver, David, A new vision for UK agricultural research and development, Royal Anderson, Iain (ed.), Foot and Mouth Disease Agricultural Society of Eng­land 2001: Lessons to be Learned Inquiry Report, The Stationary Office, London, 22 July 2002 Paice, Jim, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Written Answers, Baulcombe, David, Reaping the benefits: Hansard, 17 January 2011, Science and the sustainable intensification of global agriculture, The Royal Society, London, Peck, Helen, Resilience in the Food Chain: A 2009 Study of Business Continuity Management in the Food and Drink Industry, Department for Burrell, Alison (ed.), Impacts of the EU bio fuel Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London, target on agricultural markets and land use: July 2006 a comparative modelling assessment, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, Publications Rickard, Séan, The Value of Crop Protection: Office of the European Union, Luxembourg,­ An Assessment of the Full Benefits for the 2010 Food Chain and Living Standards, The Crop Protection Association, Peterborough, Crossley, Thomas F., Low, Hamish and O’Dea, November 2010 Cormac (Economic, and Social Research Council), Household Consumption Through Sen, Amartya, Poverty and Famines: An Essay Recent Recessions, IFS Working Paper on Entitlement and Deprivation, Oxford W11/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, University Press, Oxford, 1998 17 October 2011 Sleep, Catherine, UK: Supermarkets urge end Hellsten, Iina, Focus On Metaphors: The Case to panic buying as fuel crisis deepens, Just- Of “Frankenfood” On The Web, Journal of Food, 13 September 2000 Computer-Mediated Communication, 8 (4), July 2003 Stuart, Tristram, Waste: Uncovering the Global Food Scandal, Penguin, London, 2009 Jenkin, Baroness, Agriculture: Animal Feed – Questions for Short Debate, Hansard, 6 Thirtle, Colin et al., Explaining the Decline in December 2011, UK Agricultural Productivity Growth, Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 55 Issue 2, July 2004 Kagwanja, Peter and Kimaru, Thomas, Madagascar Regional Path to Peace, API Policy Brief No. 1, Africa Pol­icy Institute, 5 Webb, David and Russell Whyte, Economic November 2009 impact of the John Innes Centre, John Innes Centre, Norwich, 2008 Kay, Nicholas, Celebrating World Food Say in Sudan?, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Whitman, Deborah, Genetically Modified 17 October 2011 Foods: Harmful or Helpful?, CSA Discovery Guides, April 2000

62 63 Bibliography Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

October 2011 A decade of EU-funded GMO research (2001- Defending Food and Drink: Guidance for ***** 2010), Directorate-General for Research and the deterrence, detection, and defeat of Defending Food and Drink: Guidance for Innovation, Biotechnologies, Agriculture, ideologically moti­vated and other forms of A decade of EU-funded GMO research (2001- the deterrence, detection, and defeat of Food, European Union, 2010 malicious attack on food and drink and their 2010), Directorate-General for Research and ideologically moti­vated and other forms of supply arrangements, The Centre for the Innovation, Biotechnologies, Agriculture, malicious attack on food and drink and their Agriculture and Rural Development, The Protection of National Infrastructure, British Food, European Union, 2010 supply arrangements, The Centre for the World Bank, available at Standards Institution, London, March 2010 Protection of National Infrastructure, British http://data.worldbank.org/topic/agriculture- Agriculture and Rural Development, The Standards Institution, London, March 2010 and-ru­ral-development Department for Environment, Fool and Rural World Bank, available at Affairs Written Answers, Hansard, 17 January http://data.worldbank.org/topic/agriculture- Department for Environment, Fool and Rural Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020, Organisation 2011 and-ru­ral-development Affairs Written Answers, Hansard, 17 January for Economic Co-operation andD evelopment- 2011 Food and Agriculture organisation of the Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020, Organisation United Nations, June 2011 Parliament and of the Council of 23 April for Economic Co-operation andD evelopment- Directive 2009/28/EC of the European 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy Food and Agriculture organisation of the Parliament and of the Council of 23 April Anaerobic Digestion Strategy and Action Plan from renewable sources and amending and United Nations, June 2011 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy – A commitment to increasing energy from subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/ from renewable sources and amending and waste through EC and 2003/30/EC, EUR-Lex, European Anaerobic Digestion Strategy and Action Plan subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/ Council, 23 April 2009 – A commitment to increasing energy from EC and 2003/30/EC, EUR-Lex, European Anaerobic Digestion, Department for waste through Council, 23 April 2009 Environment, Food and Rural Affairs , 22 June The European Commission proposes a 2011 new partnership between Europe and the Anaerobic Digestion, Department for The European Commission proposes a farmers, Europa, 12 Octo­ber 2011 Environment, Food and Rural Affairs , 22 June new partnership between Europe and the Annual Report 2010-2011, Moredun 2011 farmers, Europa, 12 Octo­ber 2011 Research Institute, 2011 European Union trade profile, World Trade Organisation, available at http://stat.wto. Annual Report 2010-2011, Moredun European Union trade profile, World Trade Approvals of GMOS in the European Union, org/CountryProfile/WSDB CountryP­FView.as Research Institute, 2011 Organisation, available at http://stat.wto. Europa Bio Report, The European Association px?Language=E&Country=E27,IN,CN org/CountryProfile/WSDB CountryP­FView.as for Bio industries, Brussels, October 2011 Approvals of GMOS in the European Union, px?Language=E&Country=E27,IN,CN EU GMO ban was illegal, WTO rules, Europa Bio Report, The European Association British research leads to UK launch of Benforté EurActiv, 12 May 2006 for Bio industries, Brussels, October 2011 EU GMO ban was illegal, WTO rules, broccoli, John Innes Centre, 4 October 2011 EurActiv, 12 May 2006 EU reintroduces export refunds for British research leads to UK launch of Benforté Cairns Group Ambassadors call on EU to dairy prod­ucts, Agriculture and Rural broccoli, John Innes Centre, 4 October 2011 EU reintroduces export refunds for reverse recent decision on export subsidies, Development, European Commission, 23 dairy prod­ucts, Agriculture and Rural The Cairns Group, 27 Janu­ary 2009 January 2009 Cairns Group Ambassadors call on EU to Development, European Commission, 23 reverse recent decision on export subsidies, January 2009 CAP Reform: Reaction from around the EU, Family Food 2010, Department for The Cairns Group, 27 Janu­ary 2009 National Farmers’ Union, 21 October 2011 Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London, Family Food 2010, Department for 2011 CAP Reform: Reaction from around the EU, Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London, The coming surge in food prices, Global National Farmers’ Union, 21 October 2011 2011 Economics and Strategy, Nomura, 8 Food and nutrition survey, Food and September 2010 Agriculture Organization of theU nited The coming surge in food prices, Global Food and nutrition survey, Food and Nations, available at http://www.fao.org/ag/ Economics and Strategy, Nomura, 8 Agriculture Organization of the United Concept Note for Open Debate of the Security agp/greenercities/en/whyuph/foodsecurity. September 2010 Nations, available at http://www.fao.org/ag/ Council, The Permanent Mission of Germany html agp/greenercities/en/whyuph/foodsecurity. to the United Nations New York, 19 July 2011 Concept Note for Open Debate of the Security html Food Outlook: Global Market Analysis, Food Council, The Permanent Mission of Germany Crop protection industry welcomes Chinese and Agriculture Organization of the United to the United Nations New York, 19 July 2011 Food Outlook: Global Market Analysis, Food Government crackdown on counterfeit Nations, June 2011 and Agriculture Organization of the United pesticides, Crop Protection Association, 24 Crop protection industry welcomes Chinese Nations, June 2011 October 2011 Food production the objective, says Cioloş, Government crackdown on counterfeit pesticides, Crop Protection Association, 24 Food production the objective, says Cioloş,

64 65 Bibliography Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

National Farmers’ Union, 31 October 2011 of the European Communities, Luxembourg, food system must be transformed ‘on Miller, Henry, How we engineered the food 2007 industrial revolution scale’, The Guardian, 24 crisis, The Guardian, 20 March 2011 Foresight: The Future of Food and Farming, January 2011 Final Project Report, The Government Office Questions and Answers on Food Waste No easy fix: Simply using more of everything for Science, London, 2011 Minimisation and Food Packaging Carrington, Damien, Are food prices to produce more food will not work, The Optimisation, Europa, 14 September 2011 approaching a violent tipping point, The Economist, 24 Febru­ary 2011 G20 Ministerial Meeting on Development: Guardian, 25 August 2011 Joint Communiqué and Preliminary Report on Questions and Answers on the Low-Level Orlik, Tom, China’s Food-Price Indigestion, the Action­ Plan, Relief Web, 29 September Presence (LLP) of GMOs in feed imports, Cock, Matthew,Plant pests: the biggest threat The Wall Street Journal, 22 September 2011 2011 Europa, 24 June 2011 to food security, BBC News, 9 November 2011 Polansek, Tom, Global food prices stay high, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/ Somalia, DR Congo top Maplecroft’s food Delva Guyler, Joseph and Loney, Jim, Haiti’s The Wall Street Journal, 9 September 2011 GM Crops: 2010, International Service for the security risk ranking – Horn of Africa government fall after flood riots, Reuters, 12 Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications food crisis wors­ened by human factors, April 2008 Ross, Will, Was the food crisis in Kenya Maplecroft, 31 August 2011 avoidable? ,BBC News, 10 August 2011 Horn of Africa: drought predictable and Derbyshire, David, Europe’s Opposition to GM predicted, Agency for Technical Cooperation Spending Review 2010, HM Treasury, is arrogant hypocrisy, Kenyan scientist warns, Vaughan, Adam, Elimination of food waste and Development, 1 August­ 2011 October 2010 The Observer, 23 October 2011 could life 1bn out of hunger, The Guardian, 8 September 2009 IHTM24064 Agricultural purposes: Set-aside Strategic Trends Programme: Global Du Venage, Gavin, Africa modifies its stance scheme, HM Revenue and Customs, available Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, Ministry on GM crops, The National, 29 July 2011 Vidal, John, Legal doubts over EU plans to give at http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/ of Defence Strategic Trends Programme, states choice on whether to grow GM, The ihtmanual/ihtm24064.htm Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, Fletcher, Martin, Dressing-down for envoy Guardian, 15 November 2010 London, 12 January 2010 over blog on ‘Khartoum starving’, The Times, National Security Strategy of the UK: A 3 November 2011 Wallop, Harry, Britain to be biggest country in Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty , HM Tesco PLC Christmas & New Year Trading Europe by 2050, The Daily Telegraph, 29 July Government, October 2010 Statement, FE Investegate, 12 January 2012 Gloden, Frederic, Who’s Afraid of 2010 Thirtle, Colin et al., Explaining the Decline in FrankenFood, Time Magazine, 21 November The need for a new vision for UK agricultural UK Agricultural Productivity Growth, Journal 1999 Zurayk, Rami, Use your loaf: why food prices R&D, Commercial Farmers Group, All- of Agricultural Economics, Volume 55 Issue were crucial in the Arab Spring, The Guardian, Party Parliamentary Group on Science and 2, July 2004 Hannan, Daniel, Scrap the CAP, The Daily 17 August 2011 Technology, May 2008 Telegraph, 7 December 2008 Trade Policy Review – Report by the ***** No more food crises: The indispensible role of Secretariat: European Communities, Harris, Julian, Governor: Time is running out, food reserves , Action Aid, June 2011 World Trade Organisation, 22 January 2007 City AM, 19 October 2011 Action on vital fuel supplies, BBC News, 12 September 2000 Open letter to the Government of the UK Food Security Assessment: Detailed Hawkes, Alex, Households budgets hit United States of America, the World Food Analysis, Department for Environment, Food by frozen pay and rising food prices, The China cuts growth target to 7.5% in 2012, BBC Programme, the World Health Organisation, and Rural Affairs, January 2010 Guardian, 3 August 2011 News, 5 March 2012 and the Food and Agriculture Organisation, The Institute of Science in Society, 2 Wheat sends food prices up, Food and Hoskins, Peter, Warning of ‘Food Price Riots’ China’s inflation rate eases further in September 2002 Agriculture Organization of the United in the UK, Sky News, 9 March 2011 September, BBC News, 14 October 2011 Nations, 1 September 2010 Our Work: Being Ready, World Food Hunt, Jeremy, Pressure mounts to re-instate The cost of food: facts and figures, BBC News, Programme, available at http://www.wfp. MEDIA SOURCES food waste into livestock diets, Farmers 16 October 2008 org/our-work/being-ready Weekly, 7 May 2011 How much is enough? The answer is less Policies: Tariffs, Reform the CAP, available at Back, Aaron, China’s economic growth slows, Jones, Jonathan DG, The cost of spurning GM straightforward than it seems, The Economist, http://www.reformthecap.eu/issues/policy- The Wall Street Journal, 18 October 2011 crops is too high, The Guardian, 21 July 2010 24 February 2011 instruments/tariffs Carpenter, Janet, GM crops can benefit McNeish, Hannah, Sudan Battles Rebels in India’s food inflation rate in double digit Policy for a sustainable use of pesticides: farmers, The Guardian, 21 April 2010 Blue Nile State, Global Post, 9 November 2011 territory again at 10.60%, NetIndian, 20 the story behind the strategy, European October 2011 Commission, Office for Official Publications Carrington, Damien and Vidal, John, Global

66 67 Bibliography Shocks and Disruptions : The Relationship Between Food Security and National Security

&Opt=climate Indian inflation eases as food prices fall, BBC United Kingdom Inflation Rate rate, Trading Nabarro, Dr David – Special Representative News, 14 February 2012 Factbox: Details of EU proposals on GM crops, Economics, 2011 of the Secretary General for Food Security Kenya approves law to allow GM crops, Reuters, 14 March 2011 and Nutrition, United Nations Reuters, 4 July 2011 What is Food Banking?, The Global Food FAO Food Price Index, Food and Agriculture Banking Network Omand, Sir David – Permanent Secretary and No easy fix: Simply using more of everything Organization of the United Nations, 3 Security and Intelligence Coordinator, to produce more food will not work, The November 2011 The World Factbook, 2011, Central Cabinet Office (2002-2005) Economist, 24 Febru­ary 2011 Intelligence Agency, available at FAO STAT food production datasets, Food https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ Rowe, Mike – Head of GM Policy and Plagued by politics – bio fuels are an examples and Agriculture Organization of the United the-world-factbook/index.html Regulation, Department for Environment, of what not to do, The Economist, 24 February Nations, 2010 Food and Rural Affairs 2011 INTERVIEW SUBJECTS Food Chain Emergency Liaison Group, Stuart, Tristram – Author and Recipient of Oil prices biggest risk to UK growth, Sky News, IGD- The Food and Grocery Experts, the Sophie Prize (2011) March 29 2011 available at http://www.igd.com/index. Bender, Sir Brian – Permanent Secretary, asp?id=1&fid=5&sid=44&cid=760 Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Watson, Prof. Bob – Chief Scientist, Tankers back on UK roads, BBC News, 13 [from 2001, Department for Environment, Department for Environment, Food and Rural September 2000 Food Statistics Pocketbook 2010, Department Food and Rural Affairs], (2000-2005) Affairs for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Tesco battles ‘most challenging retail market’ 2010 Howarth, Martin – Head of Policy, National in a generation as Britons tighten spend­ing, Farmers Union Thisismoney.co.uk, 5 October 2011 Food Waste Facts, Feeding the 5000, available at http://www.feeding5k.org/food- UK economy shrinks by 0.2% in last three waste-facts.php months of 2011, BBC News, 25 January 2012 Food Waste Statistics, Food AWARE, Waste not, want not: Far too much food available at http://www.foodawarecic.org. never reaches the plate, The Economist, 24 uk/food-waste-statistics.htm February 2011 Foot and mouth outbreak statistics, Wheat tumbles after Russia lifts grain export Department for Environment, Food and Rural ban, Agrimoney.com, 20 May 2011 Affairs, available at http://archive.defra.gov. uk/foodfarm/farmanimal/diseases/atoz/ STATISTICAL SOURCES fmd/about/stats.htm How global biofuel expansion could affect the economy, environment and food supply, The 2011 World Hunger and Poverty Facts and World Bank, 27 June 2011 Statistics, World Hunger Education Service, 2011 India GDP growth rate, Trading Economics, 2011 Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020, Organisation for Economic Co-operation Nutrition Facts: Sorghum, Self NutritionD ata, and Development - Food and Agriculture available at http://nutritiondata.self.com/ Organization of the United Nations, June facts/cereal-grains-and-pasta/5732/2 2011 Overseas trade statistics: Food, feed and China GDP growth rate, Trading Economics, drink, Department for Environment, Food 2011 and Rural Affairs, 2 November 2011

Ethiopia, Students of the World, available UK Farming – an introduction, UK Agriculture, at http://www.studentsoftheworld. available at http://www.ukagriculture.com/ info/pageinfo_pays.php3?Pays=ETH%20 uk_farming.cfm

68 69 about the henry jackson society about the crop protection association The Henry Jackson Society is a cross- The Crop Protection Association (CPA) partisan, British think-tank. Our founders and represents members active in the supporters are united by a common interest manufacture, formulation and distribution in fostering a strong British, European and of pesticide products in the agriculture, American commitment towards freedom, horticulture, amenity, and garden sectors. liberty, constitutional democracy, human At a time of rising food prices, population rights, governmental and institutional reform growth and concerns over global food and a robust foreign, security and defence security, farmers need to use every available policy and transatlantic alliance. technology – including pesticides – to meet future food needs and tackle the emerging The Henry Jackson Society is a registered challenges of climate change and resource charity (no. 1113948). conservation. TheC rop ProtectionA ssociation For more information about Henry Jackson is committed to explaining the role of the crop Society activities, our research programme protection industry in modern agriculture and and public events please see: the benefits of its products to the community. This includes engaging in constructive and www.henryjacksonsociety.org intensive dialogue with relevant stakeholders to ensure that these benefits are fully recognised and accepted.

70 71 ‘If you believe in the cause of freedom, then proclaim it, live it and protect it, for humanity’s future depends on it.’ Henry M. ‘Scoop’ Jackson (May 31, 1912 – September 1, 1983) U.S. Congressman and Senator for Washington State from 1941 – 1983

First published in 2012 by The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society 8th Floor, Parker Tower, 43-49 Parker Street, London, WC2B 5PS Tel: 020 7340 4520 www.henryjacksonsociety.org © George Grant and The Henry Jackson Society, 2012 All rights reserved The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and are not necessarily indicative of those of The Henry Jackson Society or its Trustees ISBN 978-1-909035-02-7 72 £2.99 where sold