Assessing the Vulnerability of Holetown, Barbados, to Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

CERMES Technical Report No. 93 Assessing the vulnerability of Holetown, Barbados, to relative sea level rise and storm surge

M. ALLEYNE

Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) Faculty of Science and Technology, The University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus 2019

ABSTRACT

Relative sea level rise and storm surge are two of the most significant variables for coastal vulnerability assessment. These two variables contribute to loss of lives, destruction of critical infrastructure and disruption of economic activities, particularly those located on the coast. Vulnerability assessments are vital tools that can assist decision makers in developing effective responses to present and future climate risks. This study assesses the vulnerability of critical elements (such as land use, population, critical infrastructure, and economic sectors) of the community of Holetown, Barbados, to storm surge and relative sea level rise. The Holetown area is of paramount importance to the economy of Barbados due to the fact that it is a regional centre that services a significant percentage of the tourism sector. In this study, estimates of relative sea level rise and storm surge are integrated into a Geographic Information System to create a set of hazard maps of the Holetown region. The notion that not every person or element at a particular location will display the same degree of vulnerability to identified threats is explored in this research, and the hazard maps provide the spatial context for undertaking such an assessment. This study builds on previous relevant, related work undertaken in Barbados, while borrowing from the experiences of international best practice. Appropriate adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of relative sea level rise and storm surge in the Holetown area, and mechanisms for transferring the information from this study to policy makers are proposed.

Key words: climate change, sea level rise; storm surge; coastal vulnerability assessment; adaptation

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The passage of scripture, James 1:5 says, “If any of you lack wisdom let him ask of God that giveth to all men liberally and upbraideth not and it shall be given him.” Foremost my gratitude is directed towards God, my saviour for sustaining me through this endeavour and for opening doors which were not humanly possible. I would like to sincerely thank my husband, Stephen Alleyne, for his unwavering support, and the rest of my family members and friends for their prayers and encouragement.

I would like to express my indebtedness to my supervisor Dr. Leonard Nurse, at the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES), University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus. Despite his intense schedule he found time to assist me and was patient. His guidance was exemplary and he inspired me to persevere.

This research was made possible through the assistance of many individuals. Sincere thanks to Mr Eric White, Field Surveyor, and Ms. Katrina Reid at the Barbados Statistical Service, Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, for providing all of the statistical data for the research. My heartfelt thanks goes out to Mrs Kathy-Ann Caesar, Meteorologist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), for providing the instructions and software for the Arbiter of Storms Model. I would also like to thank Mr. Marvin Forde, Technical Officer at CIMH, for his guidance in undertaking the sea level rise estimates. Special thanks go out to Mr. Ramon Roach, Water Quality Analyst from Coastal Zone Management Unit (CZMU), for invaluable guidance on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and for supplying the necessary datasets. I would also like to thank Mr. Ricardo Arthur, Coastal Engineer, and Ms Lana Seale, Library Assistant of CZMU, for their assistance. Special thanks to Mr. Roger Blackman from the Barbados Land Tax Department, Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, for his assistance in providing the required data. Sincere thanks to Mr. Andre Clark and Mr. Paul Collymore, Surveyors at the Barbados Lands and Survey Department, for providing the indispensable GIS datasets for the creation of the hazard maps and for their overall guidance as well. Special thanks to Mrs. Nicole Greenidge, a Programme Coordinator at the Caribbean Disaster Emergence Management Agency (CDEMA) for her guidance and assistance. I would also like to thank Ms. Renata Goodridge, Field Technician, Ms Neetha Selliah, Programme Coordinator, and Ms Katherine Blackman, Research Assistant at CERMES, for their assistance.

Finally, I wish to express my utmost gratitude to my editors: Mr. Stephen Alleyne, Ms. Bethia Daniel, Mr. Jacob Daniel and Mr. Antonio Joyette for their feedback and corrections.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract...... i Acknowledgement...... ii List of Figures...... vi List of Tables...... ix 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ...... 1 1.1 BARBADOS ...... 1 1.2 HOLETOWN...... 2 2 GOALS ...... 5 2.1 AIM OF RESEARCH ...... 5 2.2 RATIONALE FOR RESEARCH ...... 5 2.3 OBJECTIVES ...... 6 2.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ...... 6 3 LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 6 3.1 CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 6 3.2 SEA LEVEL RISE ...... 7 3.3 SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACT AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ...... 9 3.4 STORM SURGE AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS ...... 10 3.5 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ...... 13 3.6 ADAPTATION ...... 16 4 METHODOLOGY ...... 18 4.1 DATA COLLECTION ...... 18 4.2 CALCULATING RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE ...... 18 4.3 GENERATION OF STORM SURGE OUTPUTS ...... 19 4.4 CREATION OF STORM SURGE AND SEA LEVEL HAZARD MAP ...... 22 4.5 DATA ANALYSIS – VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ...... 23 4.6 LIMITATIONS ...... 24 5 RESULTS AND OUTPUTS ...... 24 5.1 RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE FOR HOLETOWN ...... 24 5.2 STORM SURGE FOR HOLETOWN BARBADOS ...... 24 5.3 HAZARD MAPS ...... 28 5.3.1 Relative sea level rise impact zone: 1.6 m ...... 28 ...... 29 5.3.2 Storm surge impact zone: 0.8 m (modal value)...... 31 5.3.3 Storm surge impact zone: 2.0 m (extreme maximum) ...... 33 6 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ...... 35 6.1 SOCIETAL ANALYSIS ...... 36 6.1.1 Residential ...... 36 6.1.2 Demographics and vulnerable groups ...... 42 6.2 CRITICAL FACILITIES ANALYSIS ...... 44 6.2.1 Buildings ...... 45 6.2.2 Transportation ...... 48 6.3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ...... 51 6.3.1 Tourism and restaurant subsector ...... 51 6.3.2 Retailing subsector ...... 58

iii

6.3.3 Service subsector ...... 58 6.3.4 Cultural heritage subsector ...... 59 7 ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 61 7.1 LEGISLATION AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK ...... 61 7.2 BUILDING CODE ...... 62 7.3 PROTECTION ...... 62 7.3.1 Sea walls ...... 63 7.3.2 Groins and revetments ...... 64 7.4 IMPROVED PREPAREDNESS ...... 68 7.4.1 Monitoring and forecasting ...... 68 7.4.2 Evacuation planning ...... 69 8 MECHANISMS FOR INFORMATION TRANSFER ...... 69 8.1 MAINSTREAM ADAPTATION ...... 70 8.2 PUBLIC AWARENESS AND EDUCATION ...... 70 8.3 NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ...... 71 9 CONCLUSION ...... 72 10 REFERENCES ...... 74 11 APPENDICES ...... 81

APPENDIX 1: STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY SCORE DESIGNED BY INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR GEOHAZARDS (2008) ...... 81 APPENDIX 2: CALCULATIONS: RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE FOR HOLETOWN BARBADOS...... 82 11.1.1 Conversion and calculations: Using minimum vertical uplift ...... 82 11.1.2 Conversion and calculations: Using median vertical uplift ...... 82 11.1.3 Conversion and calculations: Using maximum vertical uplift ...... 82 APPENDIX 3: OUTPUT FROM TAOS MODEL ...... 84 APPENDIX 4: CALCULATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH VULNERABILITY SCORE FOR HOLETOWN AREA ...... 86 APPENDIX 5: TOURISM ACCOMMODATION VALUATION (BEST AVAILABLE DATA) ...... 87

Citation:

Alleyne, M. 2019. Assessing the vulnerability of Holetown, Barbados, to relative sea level rise and storm surge. Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, The University of the West Indies, Barbados. CERMES Technical Report No. 93: 88pp.

Reproduction: Reproduction of this material for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission provided the source is fully acknowledged.

This research was conducted in 2011 and published in 2019 as a CERMES Technical Report.

1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Sea level rise and storm surge are considered the most severe long-term environmental and socio- economic challenges facing Caribbean nations and other low-lying coastal states with serious risk of significant economic and societal repercussions (De Comarmond and Payet 2010). Adaptation to sea level rise and storm surge cannot be effectively pursued unless some assessment and understanding of the vulnerabilities of the exposed units are undertaken. It is within this context that this research project seeks to assess the vulnerability of Holetown, Barbados, to sea level rise and storm surge and suggest response strategies for reducing the vulnerabilities. 1.1 Barbados

Barbados is the most easterly of the Caribbean Islands, located at 13° 10’ N, 59° 32’ W, bounded on its eastern coast by the Atlantic Ocean and on its western coast by the Caribbean Sea. The island is 34 km long and 23 km wide with a total land area of approximately 432 km2, 92 km of coastline and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 167 000 km2 (CDERA 2003). The island’s population is estimated at 268,792 persons (Barbados Statistical Services 2000). Barbados experiences a tropical, oceanic climate with an average temperature of 26.8o C. The island experiences a dry season which extends from around December to May, while the wet season coincides with the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November. Monthly average rainfall ranges from a peak of approximately of 168.4 mm (6.63 inches) during the wet season, to a low of approximately 39 mm (1.53 inches) during the dry season (Government of Barbados 2001).

Barbados exhibits many of the characteristics of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). SIDS have geographic, topographic, historical, economic and political characteristics that make them vulnerable to the effects of climate change (sea level rise and storm surge) and other extreme hydro-meteorological events. These characteristics include relative geographical location, small physical size, concentrations of population and infrastructure in narrow coastal areas, restricted economic base and reliance on natural resources, combined with inadequate, technical and institutional capacity for adaptation (Mimura et al. 2007). Barbados, typifying the structural and institutional characteristics of SIDS is therefore vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change such as sea level rise and storm surge (Government of Barbados 2005).

The majority of Barbados’s critical infrastructure, population and economic activity is located within the coastal zone. Over 60%, of the island’s total population is located in the three coastal parishes of St. James, St. Michael and Christ Church on the west and south coasts (Udika 2009). The history of land use policy reveals that the Government of Barbados provided the impetus for development along the Caribbean Sea coast, therefore allocating interior lands for agriculture and the safeguarding of the water supply (Udika 2009). The vulnerability of the critical infrastructure to sea level rise, storm surge and inundation is therefore increased as a result of its location. The tourism industry remains the mainstay of the Barbados economy (CDERA 2007a). As the leading economic sector, any change in the quality of the tourism inputs will be reflected in the quality of the end product, impacting on its desirability, demand and competitiveness.

1.2 Holetown

Holetown is located within the parish of St. James on the west coast of Barbados (Figure 1). The boundaries selected for the area of study are based on the Holetown Community Plan Boundary established by the Barbados Town and Country Planning Department in 2003. The boundaries for the study area run from Bennetts Road in the south, northwards along the 40 metre contour line and westward along Porters Road to the sea near the Colony Club Hotel. The boundary encompasses the flat coastal area dominated by the Sunset Crest development and a part of the Halcyon Heights luxury residential development on the ridge to the east as shown in Figure 2 (Government of Barbados 2003).

Holetown is a hub for tourism in Barbados due to the existence and increasing construction of critical tourism infrastructure as well as the culture and history that drives the tourism industry (The Barbados Tourism Encyclopaedia 2009). Holetown is also a significant regional service centre with facilities such as the St. James Secondary School, Library, Police Station, Magistrate’s Court, Post Office, Barbados Licensing Authority, Land Tax Department and the Bellairs Research Institute of McGill University and includes substantial retail and tourist facilities creating a significant entertainment district (Government of Barbados 2003).

Figure 1: Map of study area, Holetown Barbados (base map: Coastal Zone Management Unit, 2011)

Within the study area there is a small local resident population of 771 persons (E. White pers. comm.)1. There are five residential areas within the Holetown community which include: the vicinity of First Street (Holetown Village), Sunset Crest, Trents area, Jamestown and part of Halcyon Heights. Most of the coastal strip is occupied by hotels, apartments, restaurants, institutional and community facilities. Holetown acts as an important employment centre, offering a significant number of jobs in the service sector. Holetown’s cultural heritage is evidenced by the St. James Parish Church, the Holetown Monument and the annual Holetown Festival (Government of Barbados 2003).

Holetown is one of the towns which comprise the south-west coastal urban corridor extending for the entire length of the west and south coasts. Being part of this corridor, Holetown can be characterized as containing a segment of Barbados’s most urbanized, most sort after and highly priced lands. The area is divided by Highway 1, a main traffic artery linking the north and south of the island, which partitions the area into a narrow coastal strip on which most of the town’s major facilities are located. This highway is located between 100 and 1000 m from the coastline and is approximately 1-2 m above sea level (Udika 2009).

1 Interview and telephone conversation: Mr. Eric White, Field Surveyor, Barbados Statistical Service, Monday 11th July, 2011.

Figure 2: Map: the boundaries of the study area, Holetown (Source: Government of Barbados, 2003)

2 GOALS

2.1 Aim of research

The aim of this research is to assess the vulnerability of Holetown, Barbados, to relative sea level rise and storm surge and to suggest response strategies for reducing the impending vulnerability. This study will also build on previous relevant work undertaken in Barbados, while borrowing from the experiences of international best practice. This research will also aim to support the national adaption planning and implementation effort for the sustainable development of Barbados aimed at achieving its Millennium Development Goals.

2.2 Rationale for research

Since 2007 the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA, formerly CDERA) and its partners have highlighted the need for increased research in the area of rainfall, flooding, sea level rise and storm surge, which are critical for the full determination of the vulnerability of communities to climate change (Smith Warner International Limited 2007 and CDERA 2007b).

The Comprehensive Disaster and Management Strategy and Programme Framework is a strategic plan designed by the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) in 2009, in order to create a “regional society and economy that is resilient to climate change” (CCCCC 2009, iii). This framework identifies specific approaches and activities to address climate change within the capacity of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre and other regional institutions (CCCCC 2009). Output 3.3 of the Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy and Programme Framework advocates, “the integration of hazard information and Disaster Risk Management into sectoral policies, laws, development planning and operations” (CDERA, 2007b, 23). Strategic element two, goal one, of the Climate Change Framework promotes the adoption of measures and dissemination of information that would address the impacts of climate change (CCCCC 2009). The Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) further emphasises this concern:

An important barrier to climate change studies is the lack of data and the accompanying deficit in research. In Barbados there is also a deficit of the necessary data, which prevents in-depth and thorough studies at all levels Research should therefore be conducted to identify sector specific data needs and optimal mitigation and adaptation opportunities. Data gaps should be identified and procedures should be put in place to acquire or generate the needed data. (CERMES 2009, 29)

Vulnerability assessments make a vital contribution to the overall understanding of the impacts of climate change and related phenomenon such as sea level rise and storm surge. It has been noted that the relative lack of hazard mapping and vulnerability assessment studies undertaken in Barbados serves as an impetus to undertake such studies (CDERA 2003). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report indicated that the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes will increase, thus compounding and exacerbating the possible effects of sea level rise coupled with storm surge (IPCC 2001). Accelerated sea level rise and storm surge are already a reality for Barbados which necessitates the formulation of vulnerability

assessment methodologies compatible with data available (Trotz 2002). Simpson et al. (2010) also emphasize the need for an improved data base for assessing climate change risks in the Caribbean as an urgent requirement for adaptation planning.

These concerns help to provide the platform on which this research is based. The study aims to identify and quantify some aspects of the vulnerability of Holetown to relative sea level rise and storm surge and to expand the overall information base on climate change impacts and vulnerability in Barbados. The research will also seek to identify appropriate adaptation measures for reducing these vulnerabilities.

2.3 Objectives

The specific objectives of this research are:

(i) To assess the vulnerability of critical elements (such as land use, population, critical infrastructure, economic sectors) of the community of Holetown to storm surge and relative sea level rise.

(ii) To prepare storm surge and relative sea level hazard maps for Holetown.

(iii) To recommend suitable adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of sea level rise and storm surge.

(iv) To suggest mechanisms for transferring the information from this study to policy makers.

2.4 Research questions

The research questions which will guide this study are:

(i) What critical elements (such as land use, population, critical infrastructure, and economic sectors) in Holetown are vulnerable to damage from storm surge and relative sea level rise?

(ii) How and why are these critical elements vulnerable?

(iii) What datasets are required to produce a storm surge and relative sea level rise hazard map?

(iv) What adaptation measures can be formulated and implemented to reduce the vulnerability of Holetown to sea level rise and storm surge, and what effective mechanisms might there be for transferring the results from this study to policy makers?

3 LITERATURE REVIEW

3.1 Climate Change

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased by 70% between 1970 and 2004 from

28.7 to 49 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents (IPCC 2007). Anthropogenic activities such as burning of fossil fuels and land use changes have been identified as the main causes of increased atmospheric concentrations of GHG (Nicholls 2002) (Figure 3). Higher concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere alter the radiative balance and warming of the atmosphere due to net effects (the difference between incoming (shortwave) radiation and outgoing (long wave) radiation in the climate system) (Mahabir and Nurse 2007; Terrlonge 2007; Creary et al. 2002; Peters and Smith 2001). The IPCC (2007) further suggested that the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations does not reveal the full extent of human emissions, in that it accounts for only 55% of the CO2 released by human activity since 1959 due to carbon sequestration from oceans and plants.

Climate change is inevitable and will persist long after GHG concentrations stabilize primarily due to the lags inherent in the climate system (Haites et al. 2002). Yin et al. (2010) indicated that climate change will very likely accelerate the rate of sea level rise which will in turn exacerbate the impact of storm surge. Although Caribbean countries contribute less than 1% of the global GHGs, they will be disproportionately affected by climate change (Mimura et al. 2007; Peters and Smith 2001). While their small land masses and geographical location already render them susceptible to hydro-meteorological hazards, the region’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by a range of interconnected factors (Udika 2009). Binger (2004) states that projections for global climate change indicate the likelihood of increased incidence of extreme events associated with disasters such as floods and storms, in Small Island States such as Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Cuba, Dominica and Grenada.

Figure 3: (a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004. (b) Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (c) Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of C02-eq. (Source: IPCC 2007)

3.2 Sea level rise

Changes in sea level involve a complex and dynamic interaction between land and ocean processes, involving local, regional and global scales and contributions (Yin et al. 2010). Church

et al. (2007), Kuleli et al. (2008) and Davis et al. (2010) highlighted that the rate of sea level rise for the last twenty years was 25% faster than in any previous twenty-year period. They attribute the increased rate of rise to higher sea temperatures which cause thermal expansion of the upper layers of the ocean and the contribution from melting glaciers and ice sheets. According to the IPCC (2007), for the period 1993 to 2003 the contributions from thermal expansion was 1.6 mm ± 0.5 mm yr–1 and the loss of mass from glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets together added 2.8 mm ± 0.7 mm yr–1. Thermal expansion of the ocean has contributed approximately 57% of the sum of estimated contributions to sea level rise while melting of glaciers and ice caps contribute approximately 28%. The remaining 15% is due to the melting of ice sheets. The melting of the ice caps directly correlates closely with atmospheric warming (IPCC 2007).

Nicholls et al. (2008a) explained that there are three components of sea level rise: global mean sea level rise, regional spatial variations in sea level change and local variations and trends in sea level (relative sea level changes). Global mean sea level rise occurs as a result of the rise in the global volume of the oceans due to thermal expansion of the upper ocean as it heats up and the melting of small glaciers and ice caps due to human induced global warming (Church et al. 2001). Nicholls et al. (2008a) highlighted that global mean sea level rise scenarios are readily available and are regularly updated by the IPCC. However, mean sea level rise does not manifest itself uniformly throughout the world therefore, it is important to start including regional and local variations into location specific sea level rise scenarios. Regional spatial variations in sea level rise is as a result of meteo-oceanographic factors such as variations in the rates of oceanic thermal expansion, changes in long term wind and atmospheric pressure and changes in ocean circulation streams (Nicholls et al. 2008a). Local variations and trends in sea level (relative sea level changes) are as a result of vertical land movements due to various natural and human induced geological processes. Natural causes of vertical land movements include tectonics and sediment compaction. Human activities such as land reclamation, water and petroleum extraction and peat destruction due to erosion, can also increase the rate of subsidence in coastal areas (Nicholls et al., 2008). Nicholls et al. (2008a) advocated the need for the inclusion of local land movements in the determination of relative sea level changes; however it is underscored that obtaining the required data would be problematic in developing countries due to the lack of technological requirements, resources and expertise.

The IPCC (2007) indicates that global mean sea level rose by 3.1 mm ± 0.7 mm yr–1 between 1993 and 2003 and global sea levels will continue to rise beyond 2100 with a best estimate of 48 cm for business as usual emissions (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Projected sea level rise for the 21st century. The projected range of averaged sea level rise from the IPCC 2001 Assessment Report for the period 1990-2100: the dark shading is the model average envelope for the range of greenhouse gas scenarios considered; the light shading is the envelope for all models and for the range of scenarios, and the outer lines include an allowance for an additional land ice uncertainty. The IPCC 2007 Assessment Report projections: the magenta bar is the range of model projections, and the red bar is the extended range to allow for the potential additional contribution from a dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to global warming. The red arrow indicates that larger values cannot be excluded. (Source: Church et al. 2010)

The level of uncertainty in the estimates of sea level rise is evident in the higher value of sea level rise which has now reached 3.4 mm ± 0.7 mm yr–1, about 80% faster than the average IPCC model projections (Davis et al. 2010; Simpson et al. 2010). This therefore points to the need for the development of localised models to evaluate the extent of sea level rise (Bindoff et al. 2007). According to Schleupner (2005) during the last one hundred years, the relative sea level in the Caribbean has risen by about 20 cm, and it is estimated to rise on average 2.8 to 5 mm per year during the 1990s. Knowledge about climate related changes in sea level is critical because existing coastal defence structures, which were initially designed to protect areas susceptible to flooding, must be re-evaluated due to significant changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (Özyurt et al. 2008).

3.3 Sea level rise impact and impact assessment

The threat of sea level rise spans an extensive range of possible impacts from the relatively small and manageable to the catastrophic (Gaffin 1997). The implications of a rise of relative sea level remain a significant element in determining the overall policy response to climate change as well as informing long-term coastal management needs. Linking climate and sea level rise scenarios to the potential impacts is complex, as it depends on both the exposure and adaptive capacity of an entity to a given change in climate (Nicholls 2002). A rise in relative sea level could produce various bio-geophysical impacts in coastal areas, including: inundation and displacement of wetlands and lowlands; erosion of shorelines; exacerbation of storm surge and flooding; and an

increase in the salinity of estuaries and freshwater aquifers (Nicholls 2002). Gilman (2005) emphasises that these impacts will threaten vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities.

Assessments of sea level rise impacts have been conducted for the last decade because countries, especially developing countries have become increasingly aware of their vulnerability (Dalrymple 2004). Undertaking Synthesis and Up-scaling of Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Studies (SURVAS) in the Caribbean revealed a worst case scenario of 1m sea level rise over the next 100 years resulting in loss of 940 hectares and 340 hectares of land for Antigua and Nevis, respectively (Davis et al. 2010). Another study calculated that a 1 m sea level rise in the Caribbean would submerge 98 coastal communities in Cuba, threatening the lives of more than 50,000 persons (Davis et al. 2010). Assessment of sea level rise scenarios in Barbados under the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) Project conducted between 1997 and 2001, demonstrates that a 1 m rise could result in beach width losses between 5 and 30 m which would have serious implications for the tourist industry and other critical infrastructure (CCCCC 2005).

Application of the ‘Bruun rule’ to beach erosion on Grenada’s beaches reveals that a 50 cm rise in sea level would result in the disappearance of approximately 60% of the beaches in some areas including Grand Anse, Morne Rouge, Harvey Vale and Paradise. Modelling with the ‘Bruun rule’ for Guyana shows similar results such as shoreline retreat of approximately 10 m for each 0.1 m of sea level rise (Haites et al. 2002). Haites et al. (2002) in an assessment of the impact of climate change on CARICOM countries estimated the rate of shoreline retreat to be 1 m per 0.1 m of sea level rise in the low scenario (low estimate of the potential economic impacts due to climate change) and 1.5 m per 0.1 m of sea level rise in the high scenario (high estimate of the potential economic impacts due to climate change). By 2080, that represents about 3% and 21% of the total land area of most CARICOM countries in the low scenario and high scenario, respectively (Haites et al. 2002). Udika (2009) noted that for each centimetre of sea level rise a shoreline retreat of up to several metres horizontally could occur for Eastern Caribbean islands. With a projected 1 m sea level rise scenario (within the 21st century) 7.0%, 6.3%, 5.4% and 4.5% of the populations of Suriname, Guyana, French Guiana, and the Bahamas respectively would be most severely impacted (Dasgupta et al. 2009). These percentages are even greater, amounting to 30% in Suriname and 25% in Guyana for a projected 3 m sea level rise scenario for the 21st century. Dasgupta et al. (2009) also indicated that approximately 50% of the population of Suriname and Guyana would be under threat with a projected 5 m sea level rise scenario (21st century). With a projected 1 m sea level rise scenario (21st century), approximately 30% of Jamaica’s and Belize’s wetlands would be affected. In addition with a projected 5 m sea level rise scenario (21st century) most of the wetlands of the Bahamas and Belize would be affected, as well as more than half of Cuba’s wetlands (Dasgupta et al. 2009).

3.4 Storm surge and storm surge impacts

Every four years since 1985 the World Meteorological Organization (a specialized agency for the United Nations) conducts a workshop to assess the current meteorological information to evaluate the existing forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones and to put forward recommendations for future forecasting and research needs (World Meteorological Organization 2011). At the 2006 International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) it was noted that if the projected rise in sea level due to global warming is realized, then the vulnerability to tropical

cyclone, storm surge and flooding would definitely increase (Dasgupta et al. 2009). Therefore, sea level rise exacerbates storm surge on account of water level amplification. Storm surge poses a major threat but this will always be the case whether or not climate change eventuates as projected.

Storm surge, one of the most destructive components of a hurricane, can be defined as a rapid change of sea level that would be observed at the same time and place without the impact of stormy winds (Sztobryn et al. 2005). Chambers (2001) indicates that storm surge is comprised of numerous components which include: the increase in water level as the low pressure in the “eye” of the hurricane draws up the water beneath it; the effect of the hurricane winds forcing the coastal waters towards the shore; an increase in the mean sea level as waves break in the surf zone; high tide occurrences during the passage of the hurricane; and global sea level rise effects (Figure 5).

The height of the surge is directly affected by the interaction of the wind, pressure anomaly, size and speed of the approaching system, the bottom topography near the storm’s landfall point and the astronomical tides. Storm surge has static and dynamic components. The static surge is comprised of inverse barometric pressure rise, wind set-up and wave set-up (Ashby 2005).

Figure 5: Storm surge and inundation: static and dynamic effects (Source: Smith Warner International 1999)

The increase in water level under the low pressure eye of a hurricane is known as the Inverse Barometer Rise (IBR) effect. Due to the contrast between the low pressure in the eye of the hurricane and the surrounding pressure, the water levels are elevated within the hurricane thus contributing to storm surge (Smith Warner International Limited 1999). As the hurricane nears the shore the winds are generally responsible for the greatest portion of storm surge. As the wind forces water onshore, the water surface becomes slanted to balance the wind stress. As waves break near shore, the forward movement of wave energy ceases and is balanced by a rise in the mean sea level (Ashby, 2005). The IBR can be calculated using a two dimensional model that assumes no flow normal to the shoreline, immediate water level response to the driving forces, and a homogeneous sea surface (Smith Warner International Limited 1999).

Wind set-up is the piling up of water on the shore as a result of the non-rotating component of the hurricane wind. Wave set-up is an increase in the mean sea level, as a result of mass transport and the transfer of wave energy from a kinetic to a potential state (Smith Warner International Limited 1999). Dynamic storm surge is a result of wave run-up (Ashby 2005).

“Storm surge is a massive dome of water often 50 miles (80.47 km) wide that moves across the coast where the eye of the hurricane makes landfall” (Jewel 2006, 2). As a result hurricane storm tide is created by the advancing surge of water combined with the normal tides. An increase in the mean water level is the resultant effect, positioning the tide line higher on the coast and flooding areas that are normally further away from the ocean (Jewell 2006). Ashby (2005) emphasizes that the impact of storm surge will be more severe than higher winds of the hurricane as water levels may reach or exceed 20 feet (6.1 m) and extend 50-100 miles (50.47-160.39 km) wide resulting in great devastation to coastal communities. The stronger the hurricane and the shallower the off shore water, the higher the surges will be (Ashby 2005).

“The inland reach or inundation caused by a storm surge is influenced by the slope of the continental shelf and the shoreline elevation” (Jewell, 2006, 3). The inundation of coastal communities by storm surge is potentially greater with the existence of a shallow sloping coastline. Communities established on a steeper coastline will experience less surge inundation, although they will still be impacted by large breaking waves (Jewell 2006).

Wave action and water current associated with the surge also cause extensive damage. The average weight of water is approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard (1000 kg per cubic metre) and extended repeated hammering by these waves can destroy any structure not specifically designed to endure such forces. The currents created by the surge coupled with the action of the waves can cause tremendous damage, resulting in severely eroded beaches and coastal highways (Jewell 2006). During the past 200 years, 2.6 million people have drowned during surge events (Dasgupta et al. 2009). Coastal agriculture will be completely (100%) affected in Guyana by future storm surge predictions. In addition 94.2% and 66.4% of the urban area along the coast of the Bahamas and Suriname, respectively, will be highly vulnerable to inundation from storm surges (Dasgupta et al. 2009). Inundation from 1 in a 100 storm surge coupled with 1 m sea level rise, will affect 100% of coastal wetlands in Dominican Republic, 71.4% in Bahamas and 67.3% in Belize (Dasgupta et al. 2009). Hurricane Luis in September 1995 which was accompanied by storm surge of about 6 m (20 feet) in height, negatively impacted beaches, boats and infrastructure (main port), bays and ponds located along the Sint Maarten and St. Martin coastline (UN-ECLAC 1995).

The Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) model was specifically developed as an initiative of the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (1993-1999) (USAID 2005). The TAOS model was specifically designed to model storm surge hazards, in order to assess the risk to coastal areas and communities in the Caribbean to storm surge, waves and high winds. Within the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation project, the TAOS model has been used in various hazard and vulnerability assessments in the Caribbean (USAID 2005). A 1995 study of Parham Harbour, Antigua, included TAOS modelling of storm surge and inland flood hazard. TAOS was also used to measure coastal surge and inundation hazards in Belize and Dominica as part of the 1996 Natural Disasters Rehabilitation Project funded by the Caribbean Development Bank, to determine storm surge and wave effects on the coast (Smith Warner International Limited 1999). In addition, in 1997, a two parameter Weibull Distribution (statistical analysis) was applied to the TAOS results to approximate the surge heights for various return periods for Montego Bay Jamaica (Smith Warner International Limited 1999). The TAOS model is regarded as a suitable model for storm surge generation for this study due to validation provided by US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its prominent use in various studies conducted in the Caribbean Region. In April 1995, NOAA undertook a comparison of the TAOS, Sea, Lake and Overland

Surge from Hurricanes (SLOAH) and French storm surge model. NOAA’s conclusion was favourable stating that all three models produced realistic forecast that are consistent with observations from actual storms (Burton 1999; USAID 2005).

3.5 Conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment

There are many conceptual ideas underpinning the vulnerability assessment of climate change. The IPCC, in its Second Assessment Report (1995), defined vulnerability as “the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system.” It adds that vulnerability “depends not only on a system’s sensitivity, but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions” (IPCC 1995, 28). Turvey (2007) regards vulnerability as a multidimensional term that implies a potential for loss from exposure to causal factors such as biophysical, socio-economic, political and environmental risks and hazards. Udika (2009) alternatively defines vulnerability as the level to which various classes within the society are differentially at risk, with regards to the likelihood of occurrence of an extreme physical event and the extent to which the community manages the effects of extreme physical events and assist various classes to recover from them. Sairinen and Peltonen (2005) and Fuessel and Klein (2004) add that vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Any definition of vulnerability must comprise three main variables which include exposure to climatic variations; sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system to various stressors (Sairinen and Peltonen 2005; Fuessel and Klein 2004).

Vulnerability assessments incorporate climate scenarios as well as socio-economic scenarios to account for the non-climatic stressors that affect the adaptive capacity of a system because climate impacts are set in the context of continuously evolving socio-economic baseline situations (Dougherty and Fencl 2008). It is important to note that “climate change is superimposed on existing vulnerabilities” (Dougherty and Fencl 2008, 24). Vulnerability assessment is usually conducted on a particular scale but also recognizes important cross-scale interactions due to the interdependency of social and ecological systems and the relationship to national and sectoral policies and decisions (Dougherty and Fencl 2008). Sairinen and Peltonen (2005) posited that while vulnerability assessment has been generally defined using a system-based framework, by making a distinction between the natural-system’s vulnerability and the socio-economic system’s vulnerability process, it should be viewed as related and interdependent (Figure 6). Therefore the level of vulnerability is determined by the nature of the system and the type of hazard (Dougherty and Fencl 2008). Dougherty and Fencl (2008) also states that vulnerability assessments are vital in responding to future climate risks and the assessment process itself can facilitate the management of existing climate risks. Nicholls and Hoozeman (2000) suggested that the purpose for conducting a vulnerability assessment of sea level rise and other climate change phenomena such as storm surge is to identify and assess the potential impacts on coastal populations. In addition, vulnerability assessments involve the assessment of related protection systems and coastal resources, including the capacity to adapt to these changes, and the potential to avert or lessen impacts through adaptation measures (Nicholls and Hoozeman 2000; Figure 6).

Figure 6: A conceptual framework for coastal impact and vulnerability assessment of sea level rise (Source: Nicholls 2003)

The IPCC Common Methodology for conducting vulnerability assessments was first proposed in 1991 and incorporated three key components: sea level rise, socio-economic development and response options. The IPCC Common Methodology utilizes monetary valuations as an approximation of a coastal nation’s vulnerability to future sea level rise, undertaking a cost-benefit test to assess the preferred response option to lessen future coastal impacts (Kay et al. 2008). Hinkel and Klein (2006) indicated that the Common Methodology has been used as the basis of assessments in at least 46 countries; quantitative results were produced in 22 country case studies and eight sub-national studies. Studies that utilized the Common Methodology were intended to serve as preliminary assessments, identifying regions and sectors of main concern and providing an initial screening of the viability and impact of coastal protection measures. These studies succeeded in increasing awareness of the potential extent of climate change and its likely impact on coastal zones (Hinkel and Klein 2006). In addition, these studies created the impetus for continual thinking and have initiated more comprehensive local coastal studies in areas identified as mainly vulnerable, with the outcome contributing to coastal planning and management (Hinkel and Klein 2006). The relative success of the Common Methodology led the IPCC to adopt its approach as a model for assessing the vulnerability of other non-coastal systems to climate change (Hinkel and Klein 2006).

Sterr et al. (2003) highlight that the application of the Common Methodology in many studies lacks accurate and complete data required for impact and adaptation assessment. In most instances a single scenario of sea-level rise (1 metre by 2100) has been proposed due to a lack of sufficient detailed data on coastal elevations. In addition most of the studies have disregarded the spatial distribution of relative sea level rise and other coastal implications of climate change, due to the

absence of regional climate scenarios (Nicholls et al. 2008; Sterr et al. 2003). “Although the Common Methodology accounts for the bio-geophysical response of the coastal system to sea level rise, insufficient data and models for describing the intricate non-linear coastal processes have hindered detailed quantitative impact assessment” (Sterr et al. 2003,5). Kay et al. (2008) advanced that the IPCC Common Methodology has come under scrutiny mainly due to the fact that the biophysical framework is not adequate to sustain engineering and cost-benefit stages of vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The application of market-evaluation assessment frameworks in the Common Methodology is regarded as unsuitable in many subsistence economies and traditional land-tenure systems. Therefore, the Common Methodology can be perceived as a stage in a continuous process, rather than an outcome (Sterr et al. 2003). Sterr et al. (2003) called for a more comprehensive effort geared towards the formulation of strategies and mechanisms that satisfy the requirements of vulnerability assessment in an environment as active as the coastal zone.

The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies (1998) was another initiative specifically designed to assist developing countries in carrying out climate change impact and adaptation assessments (Feenstra et al. 1998; Kay et al. 2008). The UNEP methodology established a general framework for assessing and combating the problems of sea level rise, whose output would serve as input for future climate modelling (Kay et al., 2008). Another vulnerability assessment framework was designed by the US NOAA and is termed the Vulnerability Assessment Tool (VAT). It was piloted in Hanover County, North Carolina, USA, and has been adapted and applied to studies undertaken in Jamaica and Barbados by Smith Warner International Limited. VAT was specifically designed to assist communities in the determination and prioritization of their vulnerability to hazards (Smith Warner International Limited 2007). It involves an assessment of physical, social, environmental and economic analysis and the proposal of adaptation options.

A study conducted by the World Bank in 2002, entitled, Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into the World’s Bank Operational Work: Lessons Learned from the Caribbean, has identified the inadequacies of data as a limitation to undertake vulnerability assessments in the Caribbean. Hence it is suggested that it is necessary to develop alternative vulnerability assessment methodologies compatible with data available (Udika 2009). VAT has therefore been adapted in studies undertaken in the Caribbean due to the inadequacy and unavailability of data, limited community resources and technical capacity. Although VAT does not explicitly include disaster risk management it has been included in studies undertaken in the Caribbean due its paramount importance to the management of risk (CDERA 2007b). VAT will serve as the preferred framework for the vulnerability assessment for this study because of the limitations in available data, the unique socio-economic and topographic nature of the Caribbean Region, as well as its more flexible data requirements.

Turvey (2007) noted that the conventional approach which primarily focused on small island characteristics as constraint criteria had been replaced by the vulnerability criteria which determined potential loss based on exposure to causal factors such as biophysical, socio-economic and environmental hazards. Fuessel and Klein (2004) identified the evolution of vulnerability assessment as one that is characterised by a determined shift from science-driven assessments that estimate long-term climate impacts, to policy-driven assessments that recommend specific adaptation measures.

Binger (2004) posited that when vulnerability is low there is potential for the absorption of loss, without a crisis or disaster occurring. Conversely, when vulnerability is high, even a small loss may be disastrous for the area or community concerned. Olmos (2001) argued that the vulnerability of a region is dependent on its wealth and poverty which limits adaptive capabilities. The IPCC Second Assessment Report (1995) indicated that socio-economic systems are naturally more vulnerable in developing countries where economic and institutional situations are less favourable. The report also revealed that vulnerability is highest where there is the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least adaptability. A common theme in climate change impacts and vulnerability literature is the idea that countries, regions, economic sectors and social groups differ in their degree of vulnerability to climate change (IPCC 2005).

Nicholls and Hoozeman (2000) highlighted four main barriers to undertaking a comprehensive vulnerability assessment, regardless of the scale of assessment. These are insufficient and partial knowledge of the pertinent processes affected by sea level rise and storm surge and their interactions, inadequate data on present conditions, complexity in developing the local and regional scenarios of future climate change, and the absence of suitable systematic methodologies for some impacts.

3.6 Adaptation

According to the IPCC Third Assessment Report, adaptation “has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of climate change and to enhance beneficial impacts, but will incur costs and will not prevent all damages” (IPCC 2001, 6). The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (2005) defined adaptation as alterations in environmental, societal, or financial systems in response to real or forecasted climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. “It involves any changes in processes, practices and structures designed to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change” (CCCCC, 2005, 39). Smit et al. (1999) alternatively defined adaptation as, the process through which people lessen the unfavourable effects of climate on their health and well-being, and seize the opportunities that their climatic environment provides. They further explain that adaptation to climate change incorporates all adjustments in behaviour or economic structure that lessen the vulnerability of society to alterations in the climate system. Gilman (2005) advocated for increased attempts to acquire accurate information on the response of coastal habitats to predicted climate change and projected relative sea level rise. He suggested that such attempts will inform coastal land use planning decisions, and therefore lessen and mitigate loss of valued habitats. In turn, this would reduce the threat of damage to coastal development, and would assist in identifying and adopting suitable policies to manage shoreline changes for different sections of coastline. These policies might include “abandonment, adaptation, habitat rehabilitation, and coastal hardening” (Gilman 2005, 2).

Adaptation processes or measures can be reactive or anticipatory, spontaneous or planned. Klein (2002) differentiated between reactive and anticipatory adaptation, indicating that reactive measures are applied after the initial impacts of climate change are observed, while anticipatory adaptation occurs before impacts become evident. The system upon which adaptation is premised whether natural or human also determines whether it is reactive or anticipatory (Klein, 2002). Therefore adaptation in natural systems is categorized as reactive, whereas adaptation in human systems can be both reactive and anticipatory. Adaptation in the human system is further defined based on the driving force behind the adaptation, that is whether there is private or public interest.

Private adaptation is usually undertaken at the level of the individual or entity, while public adaptation is typically undertaken by governments, at all levels (Klein 2002) (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Matrix showing the five prevalent types of adaptation to climate change including examples. (Source: Klein 2002)

It is suggested that human and natural systems will, to some extent, adapt autonomously and that planned adaptation can supplement autonomous adaptation (IPCC 2001). Planned adaptation is the result of a calculated policy decision that is premised on the notion that change has taken place and is continuous and that action is required to return to, preserve or maintain a desired state. Autonomous adaptation occurs regardless of any policy plan or decision and involves the changes that natural and most human systems will experience in response to changing conditions (Klein 2002). Therefore triggers of autonomous adaptation include market or welfare changes induced by climate change. “Autonomous adaptation in human systems would be motivated by an individual’s rational self-interest, while the focus of planned adaptation is dependent on the collective needs of the population” (Klein, 2002, 19).

Evaluations of adaptations can be based on criteria such as costs, benefits, fairness, effectiveness, importance and manner in which they are implemented (Smit et al. 1999). Gilman (2005) and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (2010) emphasized that the majority of the small island states possess limited capacity to adapt to relative sea level rise and other elements of climate change as a result of their small land mass, high population densities and population growth rates, meagre funds, inadequately developed infrastructure and vulnerability to damage from natural disasters. One of the most serious considerations for some small islands is whether they possess adequate potential to adapt to sea level rise within their own national boundaries (IPCC 2001).

The Caribbean Community Secretariat (2009) emphasized the critical need for a more robust approach to the identification of suitable adaptation responses set in the backdrop of limitations in the exactness of regional climate change scenarios. This implies therefore that adaptation planning has to be undertaken in an environment of uncertainty. Risk management has been a useful tool in the design and selection of strategies for managing areas of uncertainty and provides a framework

for the selection of adaptation strategies for specific climate change impacts that produce or amplify risk to the Caribbean Region, its member states, citizens, infrastructure, economies and environment (Gilman 2005). Identification of the effects of relative sea level rise and storm surge on coastal habitats and communities in the Caribbean will require a continuous regional monitoring network. Establishing baselines of coastal habitats and monitoring these gradual changes through regional networks will enable the separation of site-based influences from global changes to provide a better understanding of the response of coastal habitats to global climate and sea level change, and alternatives for mitigating adverse effects (Gilman 2005).

4 METHODOLOGY

4.1 Data collection

The data used and reproduced for this research project were obtained from various sources. The data and formula required for the calculation of relative sea level rise were obtained from previous literature that was relevant to the study. Access to the Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) model (first version) was provided by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), the regional repository for the model. Data on historical and current storms used to run the TAOS model were obtained from the US National Hurricane Centre. The best available data for the creation of the hazard maps were obtained from the Barbados Lands and Survey Department, Ministry of Housing and Lands. These included: aerial images of the Holetown area, shapefiles of land use, critical infrastructure and economic activities within the Holetown area and a Digital Terrain Model for Barbados. Statistical data such as population, disabilities, types of dwelling and list of businesses, relevant to the research were obtained from the Barbados Statistical Services, Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs. The valuation of the various land parcels and buildings in the study area was provided by the Barbados Land Tax Department, Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs. The Coastal Zone Management Unit provided information on sea level rise and present and future infrastructural strategies for combating coastal hazards. Reconnaissance visits to the study area were made and photographs were taken to document various observations.

4.2 Calculating relative sea level rise

Relative sea level change remains one of the most significant variables for coastal vulnerability assessment. Relative sea level is the level of the sea comparative to the land (Sterr et al. 2003). “Coastal Managers are concerned about relative rather than global mean sea level rise as this is what drives impacts and the need for management responses” (Nicholls et al. 2008a, 2). As relative sea level rise is the sum of global sea level rise, regional oceanic effects and vertical land movements, Sterr et al. (2003) proposed that these relationships could be expressed by following the formula:

Sr,t = Sg,t + So,t + V·t, where:

Sr,t = relative sea level rise in year t (m);

Sg,t = global sea level rise in year t (m);

So,t = regional sea level change induced by oceanic changes in year t (m);

V = vertical land movement (m/year); t = number of years in the future (base year 1990).

Given the uncertainties surrounding Sg,t (global sea level rise), it is imperative that the values selected include likely changes. Therefore, for this project a maximum scenario in which Sg,t (global sea level rise) equals 1 metre in 2100 was used in calculating sea level rise (Sterr et al. 2003).

The information on the value of So,t (regional sea level rise) for the Caribbean Region is limited since “Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) do not have sufficiently fine resolution to identify the islands” (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007, 909). A storm surge mapping study conducted in Jamaica by Smith Warner International Limited in 1999 on behalf of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) indicates that for future trends, and to account for possible greenhouse effect, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has predicted a long term sea level rise rate for the Caribbean of 5 mm per year (Smith Warner International Limited 1999). Although fairly conservative, it is recommended that this estimate be adopted until more site-specific, long-term water level data are obtained (UNEP 1999). Therefore for this research, the value presented by UNEP was utilized, which is 5 mm per year.

Since Barbados is still experiencing crustal emergence from the ocean, a value for vertical land movement must be included in the equation (Smith Warner International Limited 2007). The values for minimum and maximum predicted uplift for the west coast employed by Smith Warner International Limited (2007) in a study assessing Township Planning for storm surge in the Caribbean were utilized. A median uplift value was also derived from the minimum and maximum uplift values. Therefore the values for V utilized in this project were 0.19 mm, 0.32 mm and 0.44 mm for minimum, median and maximum vertical uplift, respectively.

4.3 Generation of storm surge outputs

The TAOS model was used to generate the storm hazard datasets for this study. TAOS is a computer-based hazard model, developed with the support of USAID/Organization of American States (OAS) Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (CDMP), for assessing the impact of storm surge and wave action on coastal areas throughout the region (Smith Warner International Limited 2007).

Since the 1800s, Barbados has been affected by a number of storms, even though none of these systems have passed directly over the island since Hurricane Janet in 1955. A list of all the storms which have affected Barbados for the past 112 years (1898-2010) was compiled from previous research undertaken. In order to generate storm surge for the Holetown area, a new hygrograph location was created using the coordinates for Holetown which are 13ᴼ 11’ N and 59ᴼ 39’ W. The exact coordinates for Holetown was derived from travelmatch.com. This hydrograph was labelled as BDh (Barbados Holetown) (Figure 8).

Figure 8: The new hydrograph location created for the Holetown area, Barbados.

Incorporated into the TAOS model are the data for historical storms starting from 1886 -1999. Using the TAOS model the historical parameters were set for storms for a particular year. This was done for all the years from 1898 -1999 (Figure 9).

Figure 9: Historical parameters set to exact historical storms that have impacted Barbados.

The storms which have affected Barbados were extracted from the historical tracks. Since the TAOS database only accounts for storms dating to 1999, the parameters for storms which affected Barbados after 1999 (from 2000 to 2010) had to be incorporated manually using the advisories issued from the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) database. The pertinent information which was extracted from the advisory was the date of the advisory, the time, longitude and latitude, maximum sustained winds (knots), central pressure (mb), and radius of maximum wind (nm) (K. Caesar pers. comm.)2. Refer also to Figure 10.

Figure 10: The creation of parameters for a storm not included in the NHC database, using NHC advisories: example: Hurricane Tomas 2010.

In order to generate the storm surge for both historical and newly added storms the run options had to be set to account for the NHC advisories and then the storm surge for each storm was generated (Figure 11).

2 Interview and telephone conversation: Kathy-Ann Caesar, Meteorologist, Lecturer and Researcher, Caribbean Meteorology and Hydrology Institute, Barbados, 20th June and 25th of July 2011.

Figure 11: Model run parameter used in order to generate storm surge.

4.4 Creation of storm surge and sea level hazard map

Storm surge and sea level hazard maps were prepared by integrating relative sea level rise calculations and storm surge outputs into a Geographic Information System using ESRI Arc GIS 9.2. “GIS combines computer mapping and visualization techniques with spatial databases and statistical, modelling and analytical tools” (Sterr et al. 2003, 23). It offers powerful methods for overlaying scenarios of sea level rise and storm surge with elevation and coastal development data to define impact zones. The sea level rise and storm surge hazards maps were created using the best available geospatial datasets to examine the vulnerability of key elements (land use, population, critical infrastructure and economic sectors) to inundation from relative sea level rise and storm surge, following similar approach undertaken by Simpson et al. (2010).

A polygon of the study area was created from the dataset given using the editor tool in Arc GIS 9.2. The Digital Terrain Model (DTM) which was obtained from the Barbados Lands and Survey Department of the Ministry of Housing and Lands was used to generate the elevation levels which corresponded to relative sea level rise and storm surge outputs. Rasters for relative seal level rise and storm surge outputs were interpolated from the selected DTM elevation points using the Inverse Distance Weighted Tool from Arc GIS 3d Analyst. Using the Conversion tool from Arc GIS 3d Analysts, the created raster files (which correspond to the storm surge output and relative sea level rise) were converted into polygons and overlaid over aerial imagery (polygon) of the study area. Land use, critical facilities and economic sectors were identified (vector shapefiles)

and mapped as overlays with the inundation zone (following a similar approach undertaken by Smith Warner International Limited 2007). Separate hazard maps were created for relative sea level rise and storm surge since overlaying storm surge outputs onto sea level layers was beyond the expertise available in this study.

4.5 Data Analysis – Vulnerability Assessment

The storm surge and sea level rise hazard maps provided the spatial context for the assessment of vulnerability of Holetown. The methodology which was applied in this research project was adapted from the NOAA VAT, applied in the vulnerability assessment study conducted by Smith Warner International Limited (2007) for St. Peter, Barbados. Owing to the limited duration of this research, the vulnerability assessment focused primarily on the societal and socio-economic impacts in the Holetown area (Table 1). This methodology allowed flexibility for incorporating a wide range of datasets in the vulnerability assessment. The VAT methodology had previously been found to be particularly useful in the case of Barbados for the Smith Warner International Limited (2007) study, where the availability and quality of data served as a constraint. The rankings for height, barrier and material vulnerability scores developed by the International Centre for Geohazards (2008) for the Bridgetown Demonstration Project, was applied in this research project to determine the structural vulnerability of buildings (Appendix 1).

Table 1: Elements of vulnerability assessment.

Step Activity Output (i) Societal Analysis Identified and mapped residential List of societal attributes, housing and dwellings and population distribution vulnerable population. Guide to adaptation vulnerable to relative sea level rise and measures. Storm surge and sea level rise hazard storm surge. The ranking developed map: impact zones – residential dwellings and by the International Centre for population. Geohazards (2008) was applied to residential dwellings to determine their structural vulnerability. (ii) Critical Facilities Identified and mapped present critical List of critical facilities and infrastructure. Analysis facilities and infrastructure vulnerable Identification of critical facilities and to relative sea level rise and storm infrastructure exposed to storm surge and sea surge. The ranking developed by the level rise inundation impact. Storm surge and International Centre for Geohazards sea level rise hazard map: impact zones – (2008) was applied to critical present and future critical facilities and infrastructure to determine its infrastructure. Guide to adaptation measures. structural vulnerability. (iii) Economic Identified and mapped critical List of economic assets and activities. Analysis economic components exposed to Identification of economic sectors exposed to storm surge and relative sea level rise. storm surge and sea level rise inundation The ranking developed by the impact. Storm surge and sea level rise hazard International Centre for Geohazards map: impact zones – economic sectors. Guide (2008) was applied to hotels to to adaptation measures. determine their structural vulnerability. (iv) Adaptation Identified and assessed effectiveness Adaptation strategies to reduce the Options Analysis of prevention, preparedness and vulnerability of Holetown to storm surge and structural and non-structural sea level rise. adaptation measures.

Step Activity Output (v) Analysis of Identified and assessed the Mechanism for information transfer to policy mechanisms for effectiveness of mechanisms for decision makers. information information transfer. transfer

4.6 Limitations

The storm surge output generated by the TAOS model for storm surge analysis may not be as detailed as was required due to the inability of TAOS model, as a regional model, to produce a finer resolution. In addition, Barbados’s unique case of vertical uplift may have not been accounted for in the Sterr et al. (2003) formula, resulting in a minor exaggeration in relative sea level rise calculations. Data analysis is based on the best available statistical dataset (Barbados 2000 National Census) and therefore may not reflect the current level of impact of relative sea level rise and storm surge. Furthermore the GIS datasets date back to 2006 (best available data) and may not provide a true representation of the impact of relative sea level rise and storm surge impacts. Calculating the critical facilities and economic vulnerability scores for the Holetown area was not possible due to the lack of sufficient data and expertise. The impact of storm surge on the Holetown area may be underestimated because overlaying storm surge outputs onto sea level layers was beyond the expertise available in this study.

5 RESULTS AND OUTPUTS

5.1 Relative sea level rise for Holetown

The calculated values for relative sea level rise for minimum, median and maximum vertical uplift generated using the Sterr et al. (2003) formula resulted in 1.5709 m, 1.5852 m and 1.5984 m, respectively (Appendix 2). When these values are rounded off to two significant figures, their output is 1.6 m. Given that the results for the minimum, median and maximum produced the same outcome of 1.6 m relative sea level rise, this value was utilized to create the hazard map for the impact of relative sea level rise on the Holetown area. Refer to calculations in Appendix 2.

5.2 Storm surge for Holetown Barbados

“A tropical cyclone is classified as a hurricane only after it has attained one minute maximum sustained near surface (10 m) winds of 33 m/s or more” (Smith Warner International Limited 2007, 12). Any value below this is classified as a Tropical Storm. Hurricanes are further classified into categories according to the Saffir Simpson Scale shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: The Saffir Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale Category 1 2 3 4 5

Vmax (knots) 64-82 83-95 96-113 114-135 >135

Vmax (km/hr) 119-153 154-177 178-209 210-249 >249

Vmax (mph) 74-95 96-100 111-130 131-155 >155

(NOAA National Hurricane Centre 2011)

A total of 48 storms have affected Barbados from 1898 to 2010 (Table 3) ranging from tropical storms to category 4 hurricanes (Skeete 1968; Government of Barbados 2001, 2005; Smith Warner International Limited 2007). Table 1: Storms that have impacted Barbados for the past 112 years. Year Name of Storm Year Name of Storm

1898 No Name 1 1963 Tropical Storm Beulah

1903 No Name 2 1964 Hurricane Cleo

1909 No Name 3 1965 Hurricane Betsy

1909 No Name 4 1966 Tropical Storm Ella

1916 No Name 5 1966 Tropical Storm Judith

1918 No Name 6 1970 Tropical Storm Dorothy

1918 No Name 7 1971 Tropical Storm Irene

1921 No Name 8 1974 Tropical Storm Gertrude

1924 No Name 9 1978 Tropical Storm Cora

1926 No Name 10 1979 Tropical Storm David

1931 No Name 11 1980 Hurricane Allen

1931 No Name 12 1981 Tropical Storm Dennis

1933 No Name 13 1988 Tropical Storm Joan

1943 No Name 14 1988 Tropical Storm Gilbert

1944 No Name 15 1989 Tropical Storm Hugo

1949 No name 16 1994 Tropical Storm Debbie

1951 Hurricane Charlie 1995 Tropical Storm Iris

Year Name of Storm Year Name of Storm

1951 Tropical Storm Dog 1995 Tropical Storm Marilyn

1954 Tropical Storm Hazel 1999 Tropical Storm Jose

1954 Tropical Storm Edna 2001 Tropical Storm Jerry

1955 Hurricane Janet 2002 Tropical Storm Lili

1961 Hurricane Anna 2004 Tropical Storm Ivan

1963 Hurricane Edith 2005 Tropical Storm Emily

1963 Hurricane Flora 2010 Tropical Storm Tomas (Sources: Skeete 1968; Government of Barbados 2001, 2005; Smith Warner International Limited 2007)

The highest category of storm affecting Barbados during the period 1898-2010 was Hurricane Janet of 1955, a category 4 system. The category 3 storms impacting the island were Hurricane Betsy in 1965 and Hurricane Allen in 1980. One category 2 storm affected Barbados in 1898, while the effects of three category 1 storms, Hurricanes Edith, Flora and Cleo were experienced between 1963 and 1964 (Figure 12).

Categories of storms that passed within 300 miles of Barbados 1898-2010

45 41 40 35 30 25 20

15 TotalNumber 10 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Tropical Storm Category of Storms

Figure 12: Categories of storms that have impacted Barbados. (Source: Skeete, 1968; Government of Barbados 2001, 2005; Smith Warner International Limited 2007)

Maximum Storm Surge (m) for Holetown Barbados

2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6

1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9

Storm Storm surge (m) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5

Years

Figure 13: Maximum storm surge (m) for Holetown Barbados

The extreme maximum storm surge height generated from the TAOS model was 2.0 m (Figure 13). This value is regarded as an extreme maximum because it only occurred twice (4 % of the occurrences) from a total of 48 storms. The minimum and median storm surge heights generated was 0.5 m and 0.8 m, respectively. The average or mean storm surge height was calculated to be 0.94 m. The mode or the most frequently occurring storm surge was 0.8 m (21 %), followed by 0.9 m (19%) and 0.7 m (17%). These frequencies are represented in Figure 14. It should also be noted that 25 % and 75 % of the storm surge values are below 0.7 m and 1.0 m, respectively (Appendix 3). Given these results the modal value of 0.8 m and the extreme maximum of 2 m were utilized to create the hazard maps.

Percentage of storm surge occurrences which fall with a certain value

2% 0.5 m 2% 4% 4% 0.6 m 0.7 m 2% 4% 13% 0.8 m 2% 0.9 m 1.0 m 6% 1.1 m 1.2 m 4% 17% 1.3 m 1.6 m 1.7 m 1.9 m 2.0 m 19%

21%

Figure 14: Percentage of storm surge occurrences which fall within a certain value

5.3 Hazard Maps

5.3.1 Relative sea level rise impact zone: 1.6 m

Figure 15 depicts the areas and elements of the Holetown community which will lie within the 1.6 m sea level rise impact zone by the year 2100. The relative sea level rise of 1.6 m is overlaid unto an aerial image of the Holetown area, demonstrating the extent of the impact.

Figure 15: Hazard map: relative sea level rise impact zone in 2100: 1.6 m. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

Figure 16 highlights specific elements within the Holetown area which will lie within the 1.6 m sea level rise impact zone by 2100. It is a vivid display of the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, land use and economic areas to the impact of relative sea level rise of 1.6 m.

Figure 16: Hazard map: relative sea level rise impact zone: 1.6 m; Critical infrastructure, land use and economic areas affected (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

5.3.2 Storm surge impact zone: 0.8 m (modal value)

Figure 17 shows the extent of the impact of storm surge of 0.8 m, highlighting the land use, coastal area and buildings which would be affected. The storm surge of 0.8 m is overlaid unto an aerial image of the Holetown area.

Figure 17: Hazard map: Storm surge impact zone: 0.8 m. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

Figure 18 presents a more detailed image of elements of the Holetown area such as critical infrastructure, land use and economic areas which would be impacted by storm surge of 0.8 m. The extent of the impact zone of storm surge of 0.8 m can be identified.

Figure 18: Hazard map: Storm surge impact zone: 0.8 m; Critical infrastructure, land use and economic areas affected (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

5.3.3 Storm surge impact zone: 2.0 m (extreme maximum)

The extensive zone of impact of extreme storm surge of 2 m is clearly highlighted in Figure 19. Elements of the Holetown area impacted by the 2 m storm surge, such as buildings and land use can be seen.

Figure 19: Hazard map: Storm surge impact zone: 2.0 m (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

The extent to which critical infrastructure, land use and economic areas within the Holetown area will be impacted by the 2 m storm surge is plainly identified in Figure 20. The detail representation within the figure provides the spatial context for analysis.

Figure 20: Hazard map: Storm surge impact zone: 0.8 m; Critical infrastructure, land use and economic areas affected. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

6 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

The hazard maps created provided the spatial context for assessing the vulnerability of Holetown to relative sea level rise and storm surge. The aim of the vulnerability assessment is to identify the sections of the study area which are susceptible to damage and loss from relative sea level rise and storm surge and to determine the reasons for their vulnerability. The underlying premise in this vulnerability assessment is that countries, regions, communities, economic sectors and social groups differ in their degree of vulnerability to climate change and its impacts, including relative sea level rise and storm surge.

Each individual is vulnerable to the effects of climate change to some degree due to the fact that it is a multifaceted issue which also involves socio-economic aspects. The internal dimension of vulnerability implies that not everyone within a specific location will display the same degree of vulnerability. Multiple layers of vulnerability are added because of varying socio-economic characteristics such as socio-economic status, settlement type and degree of development. An individual or infrastructure is vulnerable simply by virtue of being present at the location and time of occurrence of a specific hazard. This is the embodiment of the external dimension of vulnerability (Centre for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) 2008). “The overarching objective therefore is to understand why place x is more vulnerable than place y, which is less vulnerable compared with place z” (Turvey 2007, 246).

It is possible that the relative sea level rise value of 1.6 m calculated for the Holetown area, and applied in this vulnerability analysis, could be slightly exaggerated. Relative sea level rise can be defined as a change in the relationship between the sea level and any landmass because of vertical land movements relative to the mean ocean floor, or because of changes in the volume of water in the oceans (Chappell 1979). Relative sea level rise incorporates global sea level, regional sea level and vertical land movements. The sea level rise formula proposed by Sterr et al. (2003) is premised on the assumption that vertical land movement is responsible for all the deviations of relative sea level from global sea level, and that vertical land movement is linear and will continue unchanged in the future. Based on this assumption, the equation adds values for vertical land movement to values of regional and global sea level. It is known that relative sea level will rise if there is subsidence of landmasses and a rise in global sea level. Equally, relative sea level will decrease if there is tectonic uplift and global sea level fall (University of Puerto Rico 2005). The Holetown area is assumed to be experiencing minimum, median and maximum vertical uplift of 0.19 mm, 0.32 mm and 0.44 mm per year, respectively. Therefore, it is possible that addition of a vertical land movement value to values of global and regional sea level, as required by the Sterr et al. (2003) formula, may produce a value for relative sea level (1.6 m in this study) that is slightly higher than what is being experienced in reality.

Previous studies undertaken for Barbados all consider vertical land movement to be relatively insignificant in modelling for relative sea level rise (Delcan 1994; Smith Warner International, 2007; Rowe 2008). If the Sterr et al. (2003) formula was altered and the vertical uplift for Barbados was subtracted instead of being added the relative sea level using derived minimum, median and maximum uplift would be 1.52 m, 1.51 m, and 1.50 m respectively. The values only deviate by approximately 0.1 m from those generated by this research. If the values for uplift were ignored as was done in previous studies (Delcan 1994; Smith Warner International 2007; Rowe 2008) the value would be 1.55 m or 0.55 m less than the value given in this research paper. The relative sea

level generated in this study using the maximum (1.5984) and minimum (1.5709) vertical uplift differ by 0.0275 (1.5984 – 1.5709) (Appendix 2) therefore producing similar results. Therefore, for practical purposes, the effect of uplift may be considered negligible.

In addition, it is possible that the storm surge estimates for this study may be underestimated, since it was not possible to overlay these onto the relative sea level rise outputs. It is likely that such an overlay would present a scenario of higher vulnerability at Holetown given a relative sea level rise of 1.6 m derived using the formula of Sterr et al. (2003).

6.1 Societal Analysis

Societal Analysis is primarily concerned with the impact on residential areas and vulnerable populations (Smith Warner International Limited 2007). Though sections of the residential areas and a percentage of the population will be impacted by relative sea level rise and storm surge, the degree of impact is varied.

6.1.1 Residential

Table 4 shows that the Holetown area has approximately 347 residential dwellings (E. White pers. comm.3, Barbados National Census 2000). Table 4: Types of dwellings in the Holetown area

COMMUNITY CODE TYPE OF DWELLING Total Separate Flat/Apartment Part of commercial House Building Halcyon Occupancy Occupied 18 0 0 18 Heights Status Holetown Occupancy Occupied 11 3 1 15 Village Status Sunset Crest Occupancy Occupied 134 58 192 Status Jamestown Occupancy Occupied 17 1 0 18 Park Status Trents Occupancy Occupied 95 3 6 104 Status Total 275 65 7 347

(E. White pers. comm, Barbados National Census, 2000)

Holetown is comprised of residential units that range from low to middle to high income. There exists one low income area within the vicinity of First Street (Holetown Village) (Physical Development Plan 2003). Trents residential area is the only low to middle income area. There are three high income areas which include Sunset Crest Jamestown Park and parts of the Halcyon Heights on the ridge to the east (White 2011 pers. Comm.)4.

3 Interview, telephone conversation and email correspondence: Mr Eric White, Field Surveyor, Barbados Statistical Services, 11th July and 22nd August, 2011. 4 Telephone conversation and email correspondence: Mr Eric White, Field Surveyor Barbados Statistical Services, 25th of August.

Four of these residential areas lie within the sea level rise and storm surge impact zone, which include the Sunset Crest, Jamestown Park, Trents and the area within the vicinity of First Street (Holetown Village). Relative sea level rise of 1.6 m by 2100 would impact approximately 10 (5%) residential dwellings within the area between Highway 1 Sunset Crest and Hibiscus Avenue. The 0.8 m storm surge impact zone (the modal value) is smaller than the projected flood zone from the relative sea level rise, as none of the residential dwellings in the Sunset Crest area appear to be presently at risk. Conversely extreme storm surge of 2 m is capable of causing more damage than the 1.6 m relative sea level rise and 0.8 m storm surge, with approximately 16 residential dwellings between Highway 1 Sunset Crest and Hibiscus Avenue falling within its more extensive impact zone. The impact zone of the extreme storm surge extends further, affecting 27 dwellings in the area between Highway 1 Sunset Crest and Flamboyant Avenue and three dwellings between Hibiscus Avenue and Cemetery Lane. Therefore 24% (46) of the residential dwellings in the Sunset Crest area would be vulnerable to the 2 m storm surge (Figure 21).

Figure 21: Residential dwellings between Highway 1 Sunset Crest and Flamboyant Avenue and Hibiscus Avenue and Cemetery Lane. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

In addition to the location of these residential areas, the structure and building material of each dwelling would further influence its level of vulnerability to relative sea level rise (1.6 m) and storm surge (0.8 m and 2 m) (Table 5). A vulnerability score assigns a numerical value to the degree of vulnerability, depending on various characteristic of the entity. According to the ranking system developed by International Centre for Geohazards (2008), dwellings made of wood have a very high level of structural vulnerability, and are assigned a vulnerability score of 1. The structural vulnerability score for dwellings made of wood and concrete is 0.75, implying a high level of vulnerability. The structural vulnerability score for buildings decreases as the durability and strength of the construction material increases. Therefore, dwellings made of stone and concrete

would have a vulnerability score of 0.5 and 0.25, respectively, representing moderate and low vulnerability, as shown in Table 5 and Appendix 1 (International Centre for Geohazards, 2008).

Table 5: Types of dwellings in the Holetown area: Outer

COMMUNITY CODE OUTER WALLS Total Wood Concrete Wood & Stone Concrete Wood & Block Concrete Concrete Block Halcyon Occupied 0 17 0 1 0 0 18 Heights Holetown Occupied 6 5 2 2 0 0 15 Village Sunset Crest Occupied 0 166 0 15 1 10 192

Jamestown Occupied 0 17 0 0 0 1 18 Park Trents Occupied 28 32 41 1 1 1 104

Vulnerability 1 0.25 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.75 Score Total 34 237 43 19 2 12 347 (E. White pers. comm., Barbados National Census, 2000 and International Centre for Geohazards, 2008))

Sunset Crest is a relatively recent, well planned and maintained, upscale residential development (Barbados Physical Development Plan 2003). Based on the assertion advanced by Smith Warner International Limited (2007) that houses poorly designed and constructed using less durable material would be more vulnerable to relative sea level rise and storm surge, it can be assumed that the vulnerability of dwellings in the Sunset Crest area would be low or reduced, owing to the fact that 86.5%, 7.8%, and 5.2% of the residential dwellings are made of concrete blocks, stone and wood and concrete, respectively (Table 5). These houses would have a structural vulnerability score of 0.25 (low), 0.75 (high) and 0.25 (low), respectively (Appendix 1). The vulnerability of Sunset Crest to relative sea level rise and storm surge would be low or further reduced since none of the dwellings have all wooden walls (Barbados National Census 2000). Based solely on the materials with which these dwellings are constructed, vulnerability to the impact of relative sea level and storm surge would be low (Figure 21).

The impact zone of the extreme storm surge of 2 m is so extensive, that approximately 20% (21) and 24% (25) of residential dwellings in Trents, between Highway 1 Trents and Trents Tenantry Road # 2, and Highway 1 and Trents Tenantry Road #1 and 3 respectively, lie within the impact zone of relative sea level rise and storm surge. In addition, under the same scenario50% (9) dwellings in Jamestown Park would also be impacted. The vulnerability of the residential dwellings in the Trents area would be higher than those in the Jamestown Park since 27% of the structures are made entirely of wood (structural vulnerability score of 1) and 39% are made of wood and concrete (structural vulnerability score of 0.75). Conversely, in the Jamestown area 94% of the houses are built with concrete blocks (Table 5) and would therefore be given a structural vulnerability score of 0.25 (Appendix 1). Refer to Figure 22.

Figure 22: Residential dwellings between Highway 1Trents and Trents Tenantry Road # 2 and Highway 1 and Trents Tenantry Road #1 and 3 Highway 1 and Jamestown Park. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

All the residential dwellings (15) located at the back of First Street would be impacted by 1.6 m relative sea level rise by 2100. For the 0.8 m storm surge the impact zone is smaller than the flood zone determined on the basis of the relative sea level rise, as approximately 40% (6) of the residential homes are impacted (Figure 23). The impact zone for the extreme storm surge of 2 m extends further than the 1.6 m sea level rise flood zone and includes businesses in front of First Street. The residential dwellings located in the vicinity of First Street (Holetown Village) are

mainly small chattel5 type houses.

Figure 23: Residential dwellings in the vicinity of First Street (Holetown Village) impacted by relative sea level rise and storm surge. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

These enclaves particularly at the back of First Street are generally in poor condition lacking adequate access and utilities (Physical Development Plan 2003). The choice in the housing market for the residents of the Holetown Village depends on their level of income. This implies that the families in Holetown Village without income have limited choice and will most likely locate their dwellings in environmental danger zones. As Duncan (2011) indicates, even if the location of low income housing, such as those in the Holetown Village, does not jeopardize it, crowding and lack of maintenance increases its vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change. It is highly likely that chattel houses would shift from their foundations during a hydrological hazard due to inundation (Smith Warner International Limited 2007). This implies that in addition to their location, the vulnerability of the residential dwellings in the vicinity for First Street would be high, due the fact that 40% of these dwellings are entirely wooden, and would be assigned a structural

5 Chattel type house was the originally design of the dwelling of the plantation worker in Barbados. They are typically modest wooden structures with foundations made of blocks. The temporary foundation allowed for the easy relocation of the building from one lease holding to another. The name ‘chattel’ is derived based on the fact that the buildings were designed to be transportable (Barbados Tourism Encyclopaedia, 2009).

vulnerability score of 1, applying the ranking of the International Centre for Geohazards (2008) (Appendix 1). The remainder of the dwellings are made of concrete (30%), wood and concrete (13.3 %) and stone (13.3 %) (Barbados National Census 2000). Refer to Figure 23.

6.1.2 Demographics and vulnerable groups

Diverse groups in the same community will experience varying levels of vulnerability to the impacts generated by a changing climate. “Demographically vulnerable groups are those that, because of their particular demographic or social characteristics, are more vulnerable than others in the broader community” (Wongbusarakum and Loper 2011, 14). The framework for societal analysis for this research project was adapted from the NOAA Vulnerability Assessment Tool (VAT), which was applied in the St. Peter, Barbados study conducted by Smith Warner International Limited (2007). With respect to demographics and vulnerable groups, the framework focuses on the identification of high need communities in relation to sensitivity (Smith Warner International 2007; Wongbusarakum and Loper 2011). This involves the identification and determination of the contribution of demographic characteristics such as age, health status and special needs to the degree of vulnerability using a vulnerability score (Smith Warner International 2007; Wongbusarakum and Loper 2011).

6.1.2.1 Social vulnerability score

To determine the level of vulnerability of the population in the Holetown area, indicators such as population over 65 years, aids to mobility used and disabilities was utilized (Table 6), as was done by Smith Warner International Limited (2007). These indicators are utilized because persons of such status are at a greater risk of experiencing hardships that accompany preparing for impact, evacuation and coping with the aftermath of the impact (Curtis and Schneider 2011). The vulnerability score was applied to the residential areas which fall within the 1.6 m sea level rise and 0.8 and 2 m storm surge impact zone.

Table 6: Vulnerability indicators for the Holetown area

Residential Over Disabled Disabled Disabled Disabled Disabled loss Mental Aids Area 65 loss of use loss of use loss of loss of of use of disability used years of lower of upper hearing sight neck/spine limb (s) limb (s)

Holetown 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Village Trents Area 50 9 2 5 13 1 3 40 Sunset Crest 56 4 4 5 6 1 1 42 Jamestown 12 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Park Total 128 13 6 10 19 3 5 84

(E. White pers. comm., Barbados National Census, 2000)

This study applies the social vulnerability scoring system that was adapted from the NOAA methodology by Smith Warner International Limited (2007) and applied in the vulnerability assessment study for St. Peter, Barbados. The percentage for every indicator was calculated as a

percentage of the total of all indicators. The vulnerability scores were derived based on these percentages and using the following formula: (x *14)/100= vulnerability, where x is equal to percentage and 14 is equal to 100%. As is the case of the Smith Warner International Limited (2007) study, an average of each score was calculated for each residential area impacted by relative sea level rise and storm surge and placed in five distinct ranges (Table 7). Table 7: Demographic and health vulnerability score.

Description Score Range Low 0 -2 Moderately Low 3 -5 Moderate 6 -8 Moderately High 9 -11 High 12-14

(Smith Warner Internal Limited, 2007)

The average vulnerability scores for the residential area impacted by relative sea level rise and storm surge were calculated (Appendix 4) to produce the result given in Table 8.

Table 8: Demographic and health vulnerability score for the Holetown area.

Residential Area Score Description

Holetown Village 0 Low

Sunset Crest 6 Moderate

Trents Area 7 Moderate

Jamestown Park 1 Low

Despite the fact that all residential dwellings within the vicinity of First Street (Holetown Village) fall within the impact zone for both 1.6 m sea level rise by 2100 and 2 m storm surge, their demographic and health vulnerability is low (Table 8) because this area possesses the least number of disabled individuals and persons over 65 years. Conversely, the demographic and health vulnerability for Sunset Crest is moderate. Notwithstanding the fact that only part of Sunset Crest is vulnerable to relative sea level rise, the demographic and health vulnerability is still higher than that of Holetown Village (First Street). The demographic vulnerability of Sunset Crest will still remain moderate even though the extreme storm surge 2 m impact zone is more extensive. Although the entire Trents area does not fall within the extreme storm surge of 2 m, its demographic vulnerability is moderate because it possessed the second largest population of people over 65 years (39 %), the highest number requiring use of aids (48 %) and largest disabled population (33). See also Table 6 and Appendix 4. Although sections of Jamestown lie within the extreme storm surge (2 m) zone, it still records a low demographic and health vulnerability score because it has the second smallest disabled population and the second lowest number of persons over 65 years.

6.2 Critical facilities analysis

Critical facilities are defined as the major physical structures, industrial facilities and systems which are “socially, economically or operationally vital to the functioning of a society or community, both in regular and severe circumstances” (International Centre for Geohazards, 2008:20). This definition incorporates facilities and infrastructure that are essential to the health, safety and wellbeing of the population and community particularly after a hazard has occurred (Smith Warner International Limited 2007). When a natural hazard affects critical facilities, the impacts are dramatically multiplied when compared to the effects that a similar event may have on non-critical systems (Klein et al. 1998). Critical facilities include communications centres, fire and rescue stations, hospitals and other medical facilities, emergency shelters, police stations and other installations for public security, churches, financial and educational institutions, pump stations, transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes (Klein et al., 1998; Smith Warner International Limited 2007). Refer to Table 9.

Table 9: List of critical facilities: buildings in the Holetown area Critical Facility Type

Bellairs Research Institute Educational institution

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Financial institution

Holetown Library Educational institution

Holetown Methodist Church Church

Holetown Police Station Public Security

Holetown Post Office Communication centre

Land Tax Department Governmental institution

Licensing Authority Governmental institution

Magistrate’s Court Governmental institution

Republic Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Financial institution

Royal Bank of Canada Financial institution

Sandy Crest Medical Centre Medical facilities

Scotia Bank Financial institution

St. James Parish Church Church

St. James Primary School Educational institution, emergency shelter

St. James Secondary School Educational institution, emergency shelter

Texaco Gas Station Pump station

Trents Medical Centre Medical facilities

The framework for the critical facilities analysis undertaken in this research is based on the NOAA vulnerability framework adapted by Smith Warner International Limited (2007). In this case, the critical facilities vulnerability score derived takes into consideration many factors including damage history, structural vulnerability and operational vulnerability. Owing to limited availability of engineering expertise available in this study, only operational vulnerability could be fully assessed. Where data on damage history were available, that aspect was also assessed.

6.2.1 Buildings

Of the many critical facilities in the area, 50% (9) of these fall within the 1.6 m sea level rise impact zone. Two financial institutions, the Royal Bank of Canada and the Republic Bank of Trinidad and Tobago are located in the impact zone. The Police Station, Magistrate’s Court, Licensing Authority and Land Tax Department all are positioned within the area of impact (Figures 24 and 25). The Police Station possesses a higher level of vulnerability because it has a history of damage from flood waters and debris, with the latest occurrence in October 2010 (Nation News 2011). The Police Station is highly vulnerable operationally because the majority of its daily activities are conducted on the ground floor. The Holetown Methodist Church, the Library and the Texaco Gas Station are also located within the impact zone.

Figure 24: (A) Licensing Authority and Land Tax Department; (B) Holetown Police Station; (B) and (C) Library (Photo taken by Marium Alleyne 2011)

Figure 25: Critical facilities in the 1.6 m sea level rise and 0.8 m and 2 m storm surge impact zones. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

Approximately 22% (4) of the critical facilities in the Holetown area are located in the 0.8 m storm surge impact area (Figure 25). The Republic Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (RBTT), the Magistrate’s Court, Licensing Authority and the Land Tax Department are located within the 0.8 m storm surge impact zone. In contrast, approximately 78% (14) of critical facilities fall within the 2 m impact zone. Three of the four financial institutions, the Royal Bank of Canada, Republic Bank of Trinidad and Tobago and the Bank of Nova Scotia are located within this zone. The operational vulnerability for the Bank of Nova Scotia is higher than that of the Royal Bank of Canada due to the fact that all of its entire services and daily activities are conducted on the ground floor. Applying the method developed by the International Centre for Geohazards (2008) for multi- storey buildings, the structural vulnerability scores of 1 and 0.5 would be assigned to the Bank of Nova Scotia (one storey) and Royal Bank of Canada (2 storeys), respectively (Appendix 1). The structural vulnerability of the Republic Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (RBTT) is lower as it adheres to the building guidelines established by Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency in 2005. The existence of a revetment (on which the boardwalk is built) reduces the vulnerability to

storm surge because it reduces the erosive power and destructive force of the waves (CDERA, 2005). Therefore, RBTT possesses a structural vulnerability score of 0.75 representing low/narrow protection (Appendix 1; International Centre for Geohazards 2008). The Governmental Institutions such as the Police Station, the Magistrate’s Court, Post Office, Licensing Authority, Land Tax Department and the Library all lie within the 2 m storm surge impact zone. The Holetown Methodist Church, Texaco Gas Station, Sandy Crest Medical Centre (Figure 25), Trents Medical Centre and the Bellairs Research Institute (Figure 26) are included in the impact zone as well. The absence of any protective coastal structure located in the vicinity of the critical facilities in the Holetown area except for RBTT (located in the Beach House Complex) increases their level of vulnerability to relative sea level rise and storm surge. Critical facilities without any coastal protection would possess a vulnerability score of 1 (Appendix 1; International Centre for Geohazards 2008). No emergency shelters, which include the St. James Primary (category 1) and Secondary (category 2) Schools, were within any of the impact zones (Figure 26). The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and the St. James Parish Church are not located within the impact zones for the relative sea level rise and storm surge.

Figure 26: More critical facilities impacted by relative sea level rise (1.6 m) and 0.8 and 2 m storm surge. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

6.2.2 Transportation

Roads serve as a means of daily commuting and are essential components for effective emergency response and recovery during and after a hazard (EmergeX Planning Inc. 2006). The network of roads within the Holetown area can be grouped into various categories depending on their purpose (Table 10).

Table 10: Main communication arteries in Holetown area

Type Road Importance to study area

Main Highway 1 (Section from Main highway connecting the Holetown area to Speightstown, via the Access Sunset Crest to Trents Speightstown bypass road. Connecting the Holetown area to the area) southern parishes of the island. Joins with Spring Garden Highway as the main route to Bridgetown Secondary Greenwich Highway C Connects Highway 1 to Highway 2A. Joins upper part of St. James to Roads the Holetown area Bennets Road Connects Highway 1 to Highway 2A. Joins Sandy Lane Estate, St. Molyneux Road James to the Holetown area. Sea View Highway 1A. Connects Highway 1 to Highway 2A. Joins the central section of the island (St. Thomas) to the Holetown area. Local First Street Provides access to Highway 1 for Holetown Village. Roads Second Street Mayhoe Avenue Provides access to Highway 1 for Sunset Crest residential area. Cemetery Lane Sunset Boulevard

Jamestown Park Road Provides access to Highway 1 for Jamestown Park residents. Trents Tenantry Road Provides access to Highway 1 for Trents residents. Porters Road Connects Porters to Holetown area.

The 0.8 m storm surge impact area poses a threat mainly to the immediate coastal zone and adjoining infrastructure, but does not affect the road arteries in the Holetown area. However, this is not the case for the 1.6 m sea level and the 2 m storm surge flood zones. The vulnerability of the majority of the roads within the Holetown area is high because they lie within 100 and1000 m from the coastline, approximately 1-2 m above sea level (Udika 2009). The access road between Divi Heritage Beach Resort and the Almond Beach Club would be affected. The portion of Highway 1 between the coastline and Flamboyant Avenue of Sunset Crest, and the section of Cemetery Lane, in front of the Sandy Crest Medical Centre, as well as the portion of Highway 1 between the old Cheffete and Just Grillin restaurants would also be threatened. The portion of Highway 1 in front of the old Cheffete restaurant would be less vulnerable because of the erected revetment in the vicinity of this coastal road. In addition, Hibiscus Avenue, Sunset Crest area and parts of Highway 1 in the vicinity of the Police Station, Sunset Boulevard and sections of First Street also lie within the same sea level impact zone. All these roads would also fall within the 2 m storm surge impact zone, however the zone of impact is more extensive. Nearly all of First Street, parts of Second Street, part of Highway 1 in that area and sections of Sea View Highway 1A would similarly be impacted. The roadways including sections of Highway 1, Hibiscus Avenue

and Sea View Highway 1A which enclose the parcel of land on which the Texaco Gas Station, the Royal Bank of Canada and the Holetown Methodist Church are located, as well as parts of Carnation Row lie within this impact zone (Figure 27).

Figure 27: Major and minor arteries impacted by relative sea level rise (1.6 m), 0.8 m and 2m storm surge. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

The access route from the Bellairs Research Institute of McGill University to Highway 1 lies

within the 2 m storm surge zone. Sections of Highway 1, in the vicinity of Realtors Limited, part of Jamestown Park Road #1A, extending to the entrance of Discovery Bay Hotel falls within both the 1.6 m sea level rise and 2 m storm surge zones. Greenwich Road, Highway C also lies in the 2 m storm surge area. The section of Highway 1 Trents, Porters Road, Trents Tenantry Road #1 and # 3 fall within both the 1.6 m sea level and 2 m storm surge zones (Figure 28).

Figure 28: Other major and minor arteries impacted by relative sea level rise (1.6 m) and 0.8 m and 2 m storm surge. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

Generally, roads parallel to the shore tend to be more vulnerable to the impact of relative sea level rise and storm surge (Titus 2002). This is the case with Highway 1. The water mass associated with sea level rise and storm surge can cause potholing and fairly rapid deterioration of surface conditions (Doll and Sieber 2011). It is likely that the blockage of passage along the major access route in the Holetown area could slow down or halt emergency response in the event of flooding associated with the 1.6 m sea level rise and 2 m storm surge.

6.3 Economic Analysis

The objective of the economic analysis is to determine the vulnerability of the economic sector in the Holetown area in the context of the 1.6 m sea level rise and 0.8 m and 2 m storm surge scenarios. The economic subsectors in the Holetown area include tourism and restaurant, retail, service and cultural and heritage.

6.3.1 Tourism and restaurant subsector

Tourism is the leading sector in the Holetown area (Physical Development Plan 2003). As a result, the area is characterized by important elements of the tourism sector including a variety of accommodation establishments, an assortment of dining facilities and diverse recreational activities (Table 11). The framework for the economic analysis undertaken in this research is adapted from the NOAA vulnerability framework adapted by Smith Warner International Limited (2007). For the economic analysis undertaken in the study conducted by Smith Warner International Limited (2007), an economic vulnerability score for storm surge impact and a description of the impacts were given. The economic vulnerability score was generated based on the employment number and the estimated loss of person days for each sector. Employment estimates for the Smith Warner International Limited (2007) study were derived from interviews conducted with senior management of the organizations regarded as market leaders. In order to generate a collective employment figure for the main firms Smith Warner International Limited (2007) utilized estimated market share and their own expert knowledge on competitors. To estimate loss of person days they applied a 6 or 7-day downtime/event period depending on the sector and based on expert knowledge and market share analysis. Loss of person days for each sector was then expressed as a percentage of the total number of person days for all sectors (Smith Warner International Limited 2007). Due to the lack of expertise available in this study, as it relates to data and expert knowledge on competitors and market share in determining a day downtime period, an economic vulnerability score for the Holetown area cannot be calculated. Due to this limitation only a description of the elements of the economic sectors which are vulnerable to relative sea level rise and storm surge will be provided.

Table 11: List of tourism, hotel and restaurant establishments in the Holetown area.

List of tourism accommodation and restaurant establishments Type All Seasons Resort Europa Hotel and apartments Almond Beach Club Hotel Angry Annie’s Restaurant Restaurant Asian Palm Thai Restaurant Bajan Holidays: Plumbago Villas and Apartments Hotel and apartments Beach Lands Hotel Bean and Bagel Restaurant Cafe Indigo Restaurant Colony Club Hotel Hotel Coral Reef Club Hotel Discovery Bay Hotel Hotel Divi Heritage Hotel Island Villas Hotel and apartments Just Grillin Restaurant Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Restaurant Lime Grove Lifestyle Centre Tourism Limes Restaurant and Bar Restaurant Mango Bay Hotel and Beach Club Hotel Nishi Restaurant Old Cheffete Restaurant Restaurant Patisserie Bistro Restaurant Settlers Beach Villas Hotel Hotel Sitar Restaurant St. James House Restaurant St. James Villas Hotel and apartments Sunswept Hotel Hotel Surfside Restaurant and Bar Restaurant Tam’s Wok Chinese Restaurant Restaurant The Beach House Restaurant The Mews Restaurant The Palms Resort Hotel The Sandpiper Inn Hotel The Tides Restaurant Zaccios Restaurant Restaurant

Of the 34 accommodation and restaurant establishments in the Holetown study area (Table 11) 15 (44%), 25 (74%) and 30 (88%) of these lie within the 0.8 m storm surge, 1.6 m relative sea level rise and 2 m storm surge impact zone, respectively. There is approximately BDS$165,050,000.00 of tourism accommodation assets in the Holetown area that is vulnerable to relative sea level rise and storm surge (Appendix 5 (R. Blackman pers. comm.6). The majority of the tourist accommodations are located along the coastline which, in itself, places the establishments at risk from sea level rise and storm surge.

Of the three and four storey room blocks which comprise the Almond Beach Club, two entire blocks fall within the 0.8 m storm surge zone, which historically is the most frequently experienced surge height for Barbados. The more luxurious and expensive rooms are more vulnerable to storm surge because they are located on the ground floor, whereas the more standard inexpensive rooms would be less vulnerable because they are located at the third and fourth floors (Almond Resorts 2011; Figure 29). Applying the ranking system developed by International Centre for Geohazards (2008), Almond Beach Club possesses a vulnerability score of 0.25 because it has 3 or 4 storey buildings (Appendix 1).

The main deluxe pool in Almond resort will also be impacted by 0.8 m storm surge. The 1.6 m sea level rise impact zone is more extensive, thus a greater percentage of the main deluxe pool and garden area would lie within the inundation zone as is the case for two other three and four storey blocks and part of the central building. The impact zone for the extreme (2 m) storm surge includes the area defined by the 1.6 m sea level rise and the 0.8 m storm surge impact areas (Figure 29). The hotel’s deluxe pool also lies within the 2 m impact zone. In addition, the entire 100 yards of beach frontage (Almond Resorts 2011) would be completely inundated by the 0.8 m and 2 m storm surge events as it would be with a sea level rise of 1.6 m. The built environment and its beach fronts are an integral part of Barbados’s tourism product, therefore this aspect of the tourism product and sector in the Holetown area is highly vulnerable to relative sea level rise and storm surge.

The Divi Heritage Resort is estimated at a value of $ 10, 000, 000.00 BDS and is comprised of 22 suites (R. Blackman pers. comm.7). The two buildings closest to the beachfront are more vulnerable to 0.8 m storm surge and 1.6 m relative seal level rise than the other buildings further inland. All of the accommodation at the resort is vulnerable to extreme storm surge of 2 m (Figure 29).

6 Telephone conversation and email correspondence: Mr. Blackman, Information Technology Department, Barbados Land Tax Department, 22nd August, 2011. 7 Telephone conversation and email correspondence: Mr. Blackman, Information Technology Department, Barbados Land Tax Department, 22nd August, 2011.

Figure 29: Tourism infrastructure vulnerable to relative sea level rise (1.6 m) and storm surge (0.8 and 2 m). (base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

Sea level rise and storm surge also have the potential to adversely impact future development in the Holetown area. The entire beach front as well as the built infrastructure closest to the sea at the Beach Lands Hotel, currently under construction would be inundated by the 0.8 m storm surge and 1.6 m sea level rise. In addition, the entire Beach Lands construction site lies within the extreme (2 m) storm surge impact zone. The former Cheffete restaurant site also lies within

the 0.8 m and 2 m storm surge impact zones (Figure 29).

Although approximately 50%, 100% and 100% of the Beach House site lies within the 0.8 m storm surge, the 1.6 m sea level; and 2 m storm surge inundation zones respectively, the hotel is considered less vulnerable than the surrounding tourism accommodation and dining facilities because of the erected revetment upon which the boardwalk is built. Therefore, the Beach House will have a structural vulnerability score of 0.75, based on the ranking system of the International Centre for Geohazards (2008) (Appendix 1). Just Grillin restaurant is also vulnerable to the 2 m storm surge. All Seasons Resort Europa, valued at BDS$397,600.00 (Appendix 5) (R. Blackman pers. comm.8), as well as the Bajan Holiday, Plumbago Villas and Apartments, do not lie within the sea level rise and storm surge impact zones (Figure 29).

Four of the most highly valued tourism properties in the Holetown area lie within the 1.6 m impact zone and the 0.8 and 2 m storm surge inundation zones. Coral Reef Hotel, Colony Club Hotel, Discovery Bay Inn and Palms Hotel are valued at BDS$43,000,000.00, BDS$ 30,000,000.00, BDS$26,000,000.00 and BSD$21,200,000.00, respectively (Appendix 5; R. Blackman pers. comm9). The entire beachfronts of all four hotels, as well as the buildings closest to the coastline are vulnerable to 0.8 m storm surge. As expected, these properties would be at even higher risk from the 2 m storm surge. Discovery Bay Inn and Palms Hotel are more vulnerable to the impact of sea level rise than Coral Reef Hotel and Colony Club Hotel, because of a more extensive impact zone in the case of the former. Sandpiper Inn, Settlers Beach Hotel and Island Villas valued at BDS$15,000,000.00, $18,000,000.00 and $5,169,400.00, respectively (Appendix 5) are also vulnerable to relative sea level rise and storm surge (R. Blackman pers. comm.10). The Sandpiper Inn and Island Villas will be more vulnerable to relative sea level rise and storm surge by virtue of their sheer size (The Sandpiper Inn 2011; Figure 30).

8 Telephone conversation and email correspondence: Mr. Blackman, Information Technology Department, Barbados Land Tax Department, 22nd August, 2011. 9 Telephone conversation and email correspondence: Mr. Blackman, Information Technology Department, Barbados Land Tax Department, 22nd August, 2011. 10 Telephone conversation and email correspondence: Mr. Blackman, Information Technology Department, Barbados Land Tax Department, 22nd August, 2011.

Figure 30: Vulnerable tourism infrastructure to relative sea level rise (1.6 m) and storm surge (0.8 and 2 m). (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

The Tides restaurant, Zaccios restaurant and Surf Side Restaurant and Bar are highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge because of their close proximity to the sea and the absence of shoreline protection. The St James Villas and Mango Bay Hotel would also be at risk from the 0.8 m storm surge (Figure 31). They would be at even greater risk to inundation from the 1.6 m sea level rise and the 2 m storm surge because of the extensive nature of their inundation areas. Furthermore, a greater percentage of bed nights from the St. James Villas will be vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge because the lower villas on the accommodation block house accommodation for eight persons, while the upper villas can only accommodate four individuals (The St. James Villa 2011). The St. James Villas comprise buildings of three or more floors and therefore would be assigned a structural vulnerability score of 0.25, if the system adopted by the

International Centre for Geohazards (2008) is applied (Appendix 1).

None of the restaurants of First and Second Street lie within the 0.8 m sea level rise flood zone. Limer’s Bar and Restaurant, Tam’s Wok Chinese Restaurant, Angry Annie’s Restaurant, Cafe Indigo, Lexy Piano Bar, The St. James House, Asian Palm Thai and Spago Restaurant and Bar all fall within the 1.6 m sea level rise inundation area. In addition, Patisserie Bistro, Nishi, Bean and Bagel, Kentucky Fried Chicken and parts of the Limegrove Lifestyle Centre all lie within the 2 m storm surge impact zone (Figure 31). Spago Restaurant, Tam’s Wok Chinese Restaurant, Angry Annie’s Restaurant and Lexy Piano Bar are highly vulnerable to 2 m storm surge because they are primarily constructed with wood, are single storey structures and their foundations are not elevated. Both the Mews and Sitar restaurants fall outside the sea level and storm surge impact zones (Figure 31). Based on these observations it can be concluded that much of the tourism revenue earning infrastructure in the Holetown area is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge impacts.

Figure 31: Tourism infrastructure that lie within the relative sea level rise (1.6 m) and storm surge (0.8 and 2 m) impact zone. (Base map: Barbados Lands and Survey Department 2006)

6.3.2 Retailing subsector

Retailing in the Holetown area is another important economic activity which caters to the needs of the local population while creating an allure for the tourist. It is likely that of the 19 retail establishments 0 % and 63 % (12) would be adversely impacted be 0.8 m storm surge and 2 m storm surge events, respectively, and 11 % (2) would be inundated with a rise in sea level of 1.6 m.

The majority of the retail establishments are located some distance inland from the coast and therefore would not be at reduced risk from the 0.8 m storm surge. Gaye’s Boutique, and Beth and Tracie, are two retail establishments which lie within the 1.6 m sea level rise impact zone. Applying the ranking system of the International Centre for Geohazards (2008), Gaye’s Boutique is more vulnerable to sea level rise because it is possesses a higher structural vulnerability ranking of 0.75, based on the fact that it is mainly constructed of wood and concrete whereas Beth and Tracie is constructed of concrete and has a vulnerability ranking of 0.25.

Cuckoo’s Nest Boutique and the C and I Hardware store on Second Street lie within the 2 m storm surge impact zone. These establishments are highly vulnerable because they are made entirely of wood which implies high structural vulnerability. The largest shopping mall on the west coast of Barbados, the West Coast Mall, falls within the 2 m storm surge zone. Housed within the mall are retail establishments such as Super Centre, Diamonds International, Cave Shepherd, Ganzee, Little Switzerland and Pages Book Store (Vacation in Barbados 2011). The luxurious Limegrove shopping mall also lies within the storm surge zone, however only those retail establishments of the Limegrove Centre that are located opposite Patisserie Bistro, between Highway 1 and Seaview Highway 1 A, would be exposed to the same level of risk. One establishment within the Chattel Village falls within the 2 m storm surge zone. The vulnerability of this retail establishment is high because it is a wooden structure. The retail establishments which are housed within the Chattel Village include Loa Beach, Agabhumi, Ganzee and The Gourmet Shop. The retail establishments within the Sunset Mall, which include Cave Shepherd, Chantours and Columbian Emeralds, fall outside the 2 m storm surge zone.

6.3.3 Service subsector

The Holetown area is an important regional service centre which provides a range of services such as banking, government and educational, medical and realty, art and recreational services (Physical Development Plan 2003; Table 10). Of the 26 service establishments in the Holetown area (Table 12), 35 % (9), 65 % (17) and 85 % (22) lie within the 0.8 m, 1.6 m sea level and 2 m storm surge inundation zone, respectively. Applying the ranking system of the International Centre for Geohazards (2008), the service establishments which operate at ground level will be more vulnerable to inundation and impact from relative sea level rise and storm surge because they possess a structural vulnerability of 1 (Appendix 1). These ground level service establishments include the Bank of Nova Scotia, Police Station, Post Office, Magistrate’s Court, Trents Medical Centre, Holetown Methodist Church, Folkstone Marine Park, High Tide Water Sports and the Texaco Gas Station. The St. James Primary and Secondary Schools, the St. James Parish Church and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) are the service establishments which lie outside the 1.6 m sea level impact zone and the 0.8 and 2 m storm surge zones due to the fact that they are located further inland.

Table 12: List of services provided in the Holetown area

Service Establishment Banking and financial service Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) Bank of Nova Scotia Republic Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (RBTT) Government services Police Station Post Office Magistrate’s Court Licensing Authority Land Tax Department Library Medical services Sandy Crest Medical Centre Trents Medical Centre Educational services St. James Primary School St. James Secondary School Bellairs Research Institute Religious services St. James Parish Church Holetown Methodist Church Recreational services Folkstone Marine Park High Tide Water Sports Other services Texaco Gas Station ShawCor Global Services Cluttons Barbados Realtors Limited Gregory Paul Salon Sotherby’s International Realty Miele Gallery

6.3.4 Cultural heritage subsector

The cultural heritage of Holetown is evidenced by the St James Parish Church, the Holetown Monument and the Holetown Festival (Physical Development Plan 2003). The Holetown Monument located on the forecourt of the Police Station commemorates the first settlement in Barbados on May 14th 1625. The plaque at the base of the monument laid in 1975 on the occasion of the first Holetown Festival, commemorates the date of the arrival of the English settlers (Figure 32). The Holetown Festival serves as an annual memorial of this phase in Barbados’ history and some of the festival events are held at First and Second Streets. The Holetown Monument serves as a commencement point of the Holetown Festival (Barbados Tourism Encyclopaedia 2009). The Monument lies within both the 1.6 m sea level rise and 2 m storm surge zones. This would have implications for the Holetown Festival, as the Monument, which is a tangible representation of

such remembrance, is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. The St. James Parish Church falls outside the 1.6 m sea level impact zone, and the 0.8 m and 2 m storm surge inundation areas (Figure 33).

Figure 32: Holetown Monument and plaque. (Photo taken by Marium Alleyne 2011)

Figure 33: St. James Parish Church. (Photo taken by Marium Alleyne 2011)

7 ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Critical policy and structural protection options are proposed to enhance the viability of the social and economic activities within Holetown, through the reduction of its vulnerability to relative sea level rise and storm surge. These proposed actions are neither meant to be exhaustive or even prescriptive. They are merely offered for consideration.

7.1 Legislation and institutional framework

In order to reduce the vulnerability of the Holetown area to immediate storm surge and future sea level rise, Barbados’s environmental legislation needs to be revised and amended and new legislation needs to be formulated. The watershed for modern environmental law in Barbados was in 1992, implying that majority of the current environmental laws do not factor in the effects of climate change such as relative sea level rise and storm surge (Government of Barbados 2001).

The formulation of specific legislation relating to climate change is the mechanism through which adaption receives the funding and authority necessary for implementation. “National legislation provides the enabling conditions required for place-based adaptation actions to take place” (USAID 2009, 59). Therefore, the absence of a specific law relating to climate change adaptation with special emphasis on pertinent issues such as relative sea level rise and storm surge exacerbates the vulnerability of the Holetown area. The majority of the existing environmental laws in Barbados facilitate the management of coastal zones, however they were not primarily enacted to address climate change concerns such as sea level rise and storm surge. The current legislation that addresses disaster management and tourism development needs to be revised or effectively enforced (CERMES 2009) in order to reduce the vulnerability of the Holetown area to sea level rise and storm surge. Public works, Central Emergency Relief Organization (CERO) and Ministry of Tourism are critical institutions in the framework for sea level rise and storm surge vulnerability reduction. Disaster Management Legislation exists for Barbados and as of September 14th 2010 a forum was held to develop and finalize tools for implementation (CDERA 2011a). Such progress is commendable however the implementation of this act is still a matter of urgency.

Climate change legislation should be formulated and enforced to address the effects of climate change such as sea level rise and storm surge, which are of paramount concern to Barbados. This legislation should include provisions for regulating the preparation and use of national and sectoral adaptation plans for the specific effects of climate change (CERMES 2009). Provisions in this climate legislation should also allow for greater community participation in the decision making process as community participation is essential to the implementation of the adaptation options (Government of Barbados 2001).

The institutions responsible for coastal management and infrastructural development such as the Coastal Zone Management Unit, Town and Country Planning, the Department for Emergency Management (DEM) and the Tourism Emergency Management Standing Committee need to analyze the existing and proposed plans for development for the Holetown area given the relative sea level rise threat by 2100 and the possible storm surge risk identified in this study. Although the impact of 1.6 m sea level rise on the Holetown area is not an immediate threat, national and local leaders must now begin to design adaptation strategies that are technically, financially and politically achievable in order to build the resilience of the Holetown area to this impending threat.

The study undertaken by Smith Warner International Limited (2007) indicates that the National Physical Development Plan for Barbados of 1972 was amended in 2003 and guides the plans for the future development. Therefore, results from this study should serve as an impetus for the re- examination and modification of proposed future plans for the Holetown area.

7.2 Building code

The construction of or modification to buildings in the Holetown area is based on the Barbados National Building Code of 1993. Building standards are dynamic due to the constantly changing environment. For the Building Code of Barbados to aid in the reduction of Holetown’s vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge it should be regularly reviewed and updated and brought into effect by the enactment of a new Building Control Act. The Building Code of Barbados should be revised to take account of climate variability and change. The revised building code should give due consideration of the potential impacts of relative sea level rise and storm surge and how best the vulnerability to such hazards could be reduced in the event that a building has to be erected in hazard prone areas (NOAA 2010). The degree of protection envisaged by the building code, which determines the level of vulnerability of a structure to relative sea level rise and storm surge, depends on the provisions of the code adopted and enforced by the government. To this end the Barbados Building Code should be revamped to include both prescriptive and performance oriented measures. The prescriptive aspect of the code should specify the materials, design and construction methods, including instructions for infrastructural protection, floor elevations and piling depth and structural requirements to withstand the force of anticipated storm surge and inundation from sea level rise. The performance oriented aspect of the code as it relates to sea level rise and storm surge should specify the required elements of the structure by defining the objectives to be achieved through its construction.

The determination of how local best practices, culture and experience can complement the code could ensure that the code is more effectively enforced as this would create a climate of collaboration rather than conflict with the Holetown community. A system of enforcement and inspection to address daily activities and emergency procedures for natural hazards and climate change should be formulated and implemented (USAID 2009). A comprehensive understanding of the concepts and rules defined in the building code should be ensured through training and education initiatives. Therefore, increased support should be given to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency to revamp and continue its training initiative which started in 2005 that is geared towards raising the competency level of foremen and experienced artisans to reduce the risk of natural hazards.

7.3 Protection

Protection is a strategy that includes defensive measures and structures designed and implemented to protect the Holetown area against inundation and surge impacts from relative sea level rise by 2100 and storm surge. Applying the recommendation put forward by the IPCC (1990), the Holetown situation presented in this research paper must be evaluated and treated on its particular merits if structural adaptation is to be proposed.

7.3.1 Sea walls

The presence of sea walls along some sections of the coastline indicates that there is prior knowledge and awareness of the impact of the waves on the existing infrastructure. The level of protection provided by the sea walls or bulkheads (Figure 34) against the impact of the waves depends on their structural configurations and the time they were constructed (Blankenship 2004). A successful sea wall or bulkhead must be able to withstand not only the forces of storm surge, but also the effects of overtopping, which permits a significant amount of water to add to the passive earth load exerted on the wall and can further result in a scouring or eroding of the backfill (National Academy of Sciences 1991). The sea wall or bulkheads in the Holetown area should also be re-examined based on the threat posed by the potential effects of climate variability and climate change (Figure 34).

Figure 34: Sea wall: Section of Almond Beach Club. (Photo taken by Marium Alleyne 2011)

A similar costal engineering study or structural condition survey to the one proposed by a study conducted by Blankenship (2004), could be undertaken by the Coastal Zone Management Unit with the cooperation of the hotel’s (those that possess sea walls) management to determine if the existing sea walls are properly designed to withstand the future impact of storm surge. This exercise would also identify whether there is a need for maintenance or to determine whether these protective structures have fulfilled their service life. This is necessary in light of future implications

due to relative sea level rise in 2100 (Figure 34). These coastal engineering studies or structural condition surveys would be implemented as a regular initiative and should be undertaken at a frequency of approximately once every five years. Any structural deficiencies should be noted and repairs conducted (Smith Warner International Limited 2007). If the results from the engineering study or structural conditions survey conducted for the Holetown area indicate that the sea walls need to be reinforced or rebuilt, then it is imperative that sea level rise be accounted for in the proposed future design of the sea wall. Sea level rise for the Holetown area can be incorporated into the sea wall design by building the sea wall initially to take into consideration the anticipated relative sea level rise. If funding is a limitation, in order to take into consideration sea level rise in the Holetown area, the initiative proposed by the National Academy of Sciences (1991) could be applied. This initiative recommends that sea wall could be initially designed to withstand the impact of the minimal sea level rise and gradually increased in the future based on the relative sea level rise experienced or projected by 2100.

7.3.2 Groins and revetments

Sea level rise and storm surge will exacerbate shoreline erosion through increased coastal inundation. Groins are particularly effective in high energy environments and if properly designed, have the potential to reduce landward flooding or reduce erosion rates landward of the structure (USAID 2009). In order for engineered and structural responses to sea level rise and storm surge to be proposed for the Holetown area, specific surveys and analysis of the physical marine environment needs to be undertaken. W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited conduct a hydraulic survey, terrestrial and species assessment, biological analysis and coastal engineering analyses for the West Coast in 2010 on behalf of the Coastal Zone Management Unit. Therefore, applying the information presented by W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited (2010) for the proposed West Coast Beach and Reef Design, the construction of two 25 m groins at Settlers Beach is proposed to lessen the erosive power of sea level rise and storm surge in the Holetown area (Figure 35).

Figure 35: View along waterfront of Settlers Beach Hotel (left) (photograph taken by Marium Alleyne 2011) and proposed plans for Settlers Beach Hotel (right) (W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited, 2010)

In order for the groin to serve as an effective structural adaptation to sea level rise and storm surge for the Holetown area, as Sorensen et al. (1983) highlight, the crest of the groins must be high enough to take into consideration the rise in sea level and beach fill must be undertaken to counter inundation.

In the Holetown area revetments are widely used as a form of coastal protection. Various types of revetments have been used in the Holetown area primarily for the absorption of the incoming wave energy, to preserve the existing use of the shoreline and to protect the slope as indicated by Coastal Hydraulics Laboratory in their 1986 study. In addition, they shield and protect the land behind them. In order to reduce the vulnerability of the Holetown area to sea level and storm surge, the appropriateness and durability of the revetments need to be determined by the Coastal Zone Management Unit.

Gabion revetments have been utilized to protect sections of Sandpiper Inn after storm damage in February 2010 (W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited 2010). Refer to Figure 36.

Figure 36: Storm damage to Sandpiper Inn in February 2010 (left) (Photograph taken by W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited, 2010) and gabion revetments used to protect Sandpiper Inn (right) (Photo taken by Marium Alleyne 2011)

There is evidence that these gabion revetments are failing due the erosive power of the waves. As the Coastal Hydraulics Laboratory (1986) indicates, vertical gabion revetments need continuous maintenance, because as a low cost structure for short term protection they are prone to structural failure and outflanking (Figure 36). Therefore, applying the information presented by W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited (2010) for the proposed West Coast Beach and Reef Design, it is recommended that the gabion revetments be replaced by groins. In addition to the 25 m groin recommended for construction near Settlers Beach, another 25 m groin needs to be constructed near the south end of the Sandpiper property (Figure 37).

Figure 37: Proposed plan for Sandpiper region. (Source: W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited 2010)

The revetment near the Folkstone marine park is in poor condition and needs to be maintained if it is to withstand the impacts of future sea level rise and storm surge. Applying the information presented by W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited (2010) for the proposed West Coast Beach and Reef Design, the improvements to the Folkstone revetment will include resurfacing the walk way and strengthening the revetment by adding more stones to the front (Figure 38).

Figure 38: Present condition of revetment near Folkstone Marine Park. (Photo taken by Marium Alleyne 2011)

W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited (2010) recommended that groins be constructed on both the north and south sides of the Holetown Lagoon outlet. These groins are designed to be of an appropriate size, in order to prevent sand from entering the mouth of the lagoon which would increase its tendency to flood during storm surge events (Figure 39). Mango Bay Hotel and the properties to the south will have protection from sea level rise and storm surge due to the presence of the proposed groins in the area (W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited 2010).

Figure 39: Holetown Lagoon. (Photograph taken by Marium Alleyne 2011)

7.4 Improved preparedness

7.4.1 Monitoring and forecasting

The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) is currently undertaking research in storm surge modelling (K. Caesar pers. comm.11). In order for future storm surge models to adequately take into consideration past and future storm surge for Barbados, vulnerability assessment studies like this one should be considered in the designing of such models while incorporating technological advances where hydro meteorological systems are concerned. For future storm surge modelling initiative, CIMH needs to identify and source additional financial assistance and enhance their technical capacity and resources in order to track meteorological patterns and forecast impacts. In addition, through its academic programme, CIMH can undertake climate research which focuses on long term monitoring of climate change impacts in the

11 Interview and telephone conversation: Kathy-Ann Caesar, Meteorologist, Lecturer and Researcher, Caribbean Meteorology and Hydrology Institute, Barbados, 20th June and 25th of July 2011

Caribbean as it relates to hydro meteorological systems. CIMH can also undertake a pilot forecasting system in order to identify constraints and opportunities for improvement. The outcomes of the research and pilot study could inform local and national decisions, and provide timely information to the vulnerable communities.

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) in conjunction with the Barbados Meteorological Service could make adjustments to proposed disaster risk reduction initiatives through the inclusion of forecasting and early warning systems for storm surge. These early warning systems should be designed to assess highly vulnerable areas to storm surge such as the Holetown area. Collaboration with the members of the vulnerable communities, and public bodies with expertise in specialized areas, should be undertaken in order to formulate and design these early warning systems.

7.4.2 Evacuation planning

Efforts should be directed towards building planning capacity between the St. James Central District Emergency Organization, government representatives and police and public safety officers for the formulation of an effective evacuation plan and response programs for the Holetown area, which takes into consideration sea level rise and storm surge. Therefore, the current evacuation plan for Holetown should be re-examined by the St. James Central District Emergency Organization based on the results of this study. If the current evacuation plan involves any of the roads which could be impacted by 0.8 or 2 m storm surge, then the plan needs to be revised and alternative routes need to be identified. The evacuation plan should be constantly updated based on research done on climate vulnerability and change.

This study indicates that storm surge and sea level rise will have significant potential effects on critical infrastructure which can hinder the evacuation process. Evacuation planners for the Holetown area must therefore identify alternative evacuation options in the event of storm surge and sea level rise. Multi-modal means of evacuation for varying categories of individuals should also be considered during a storm surge event. The findings of this study indicate that residential area with a higher percentage of individuals over the age of 65 and people with disabilities will be more vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. In formulating an evacuation plan which takes into consideration sea level rise and storm surge, due consideration needs to be given to the special needs of residents in nursing homes, transportation for those who do not own a vehicle, search and rescue procedures that assist people with disabilities, and shelters that can accommodate disabilities (National Council on Disability 2009). Before the threat of sea level rise and storm surge becomes imminent, the St. James Central District Emergency Organization can invest in capacity building programmes that actively involve people with disabilities in disaster preparedness and adaptation activities. In addition, the St. James District Emergency Organization can conduct sea level rise and storm surge sensitization programmes primarily involving business owners and residents in the Holetown area.

8 MECHANISMS FOR INFORMATION TRANSFER

In order for the citizenry of the Holetown area to cope with the anticipated impacts of relative sea level rise and storm surge, they would require a certain level of awareness or information base. Effective adaptation planning for the vulnerability of the Holetown area to relative sea level rise and storm surge requires the communication of information in a manner that fosters change in

attitude and behaviour. The various mechanisms for information transfer should take into consideration all relevant stakeholders and the information must be tailored to suit the interests of the individuals who would be impacted.

8.1 Mainstream adaptation

The IPCC (2007) highlights that mainstreaming recognizes that adaptation measures are rarely undertaken only in response to climate change. There are synergies between disaster risk management and adaptation to sea level rise and climate change (Institute of Development Studies (IDS) 2006). Therefore, the results and recommendations presented in this study must be framed into languages and time scales relevant to the policy makers in order for national adaptation strategies that address disaster risk and climate change to be developed for Barbados. Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) (2003-2007) and projects under the Special Programme on Adaptation to Climate Change (SPACC) (2007-2011) are commendable initiatives undertaken by the Caribbean Region to mainstream adaption strategies into sustainable development agendas. However, the successful mainstreaming of adaptation options requires strong cooperation and institutional linkages between government and non-governmental organizations. CDEMA, CERO and DEM must therefore work together to alter existing disaster risk reduction strategies and formulate new adaptation initiatives based on the information presented in this study. Coastal Zone Management Unit and the Ministry of Environment could overlay adaption measures unto other ongoing and development initiatives, which would provide access to the already budgeted pool of resources and increase the resilience of existing and proposed development investments.

8.2 Public awareness and education

Public awareness and education are key elements of any approach to address climate change, whether it is to garner support for a community-based adaptation initiative, to modify behaviour or influence local or national decision making (Brown 2009). Therefore, increased public awareness about the issues relating to relative sea level rise and storm surge is of paramount importance in reducing the vulnerability of the Holetown area. The curriculum of the schools could be supplemented by the Ministry of Education to include information on aspects of climate change such as sea level rise, storm surge and coastal vulnerability that are pertinent to Barbados. Such information could also be disseminated among clubs, specifically environmental clubs, within the St. James Primary and Secondary School.

Another effective way to increase awareness is through the use of media houses of Barbados which include the Nation News, Caribbean Broadcasting Corporation, Starcom Network Inc and Barbados Advocate. Electronic communication such as email, websites, web and micro blogs and social networks are a cost effective and efficient way of increasing awareness. The Ministry of Environment, CDEMA, CERO, DEM, CZMU, and CERMES can work together to launch a public awareness raising campaign on climate change through the various media houses and electronic communication. The primary focus groups for this public awareness campaign could be the youth of the St. James Parish. Television and radio advertisements can be used to inform the public of the everyday actions that they can undertake to combat climate change. Weekly environmental pages focusing on sea level rise and storm surge can be published in the Nations News and Barbados Advocate.

A Holetown Climate Change Awareness Group could be established in conjunction with CDERA, CERO, DEM and St. James Central District Emergency Organization as a disaster risk reduction initiative. The Holetown Climate Change Awareness Group would undertake awareness and educational initiatives primarily gear towards the most vulnerable groups to sea level rise and storm surge in the Holetown area based on the findings of this vulnerability assessment. Representatives from the main agencies responsible for disaster risk management and climate change as well as representatives from the various stakeholder groups in the community could form the executive committee for the Holetown Climate Change Awareness Group. Meetings aimed at reaching specific groups such as home and business owners could be undertaken with the aim of assisting these target groups to better understand and adapt to climate change. The avenues for communication for the Holetown Climate Change Awareness Group would include the media and print agencies as well as electronic communication. The Holetown Climate Change Awareness Group could serve as a pilot sensitization project for Barbados.

8.3 National, Regional and International Organizations

Various donor agencies have publicized their strategic plans and programmes for making climate change adaptation and mitigation a priority (CANARI 2009). Therefore, the information from this study can be utilized as the basis for the request for funding and technical support and the provision of technology and equipment to assist in the monitoring of and adaptation to relative sea level rise and storm surge similar to recommendations proposed by Dalrymple (2004). Possible options for aid include Canada Caribbean Disaster Risk Management (CCDRM) Fund and the Global Environment Facility Small Grant Programme which have a history of funding climate change adaptation initiative in the Caribbean and other developing countries (CANARI 2009).

The Canadian Caribbean Risk Management Fund is part of the Canadian International Development Agency’s (CIDA) regional Caribbean Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, designed to support non-governmental organizations, community based groups and governmental agencies desiring to undertake small scale projects at the community level as a means of reducing risk from natural hazards and climate change (CDERA 2011b). The CIDA calls for applicants to submit written project proposals for the months of April and November. A community-based group for Holetown, such as the Holetown Climate Change Awareness Group, can submit a project proposal for the monitoring and the implementation of adaptation measures with regards to sea level rise and storm surge.

The Global Environment Facility’s (GEF) Small Grant Programme (SGP) aims to deliver global environmental benefits through funding in their focal areas including climate change. The GEF SGP has funded climate change projects in Barbados, Dominican Republic, Dominica, Cuba, Grenada and Trinidad and Tobago (GEF Small Grant Programme 2006). The GEF SGP provided US$1,000.00 as a planning grant for the Preparation of a Business Plan for the Scotland District Renewable Energy and Environmental Park in Barbados between 1997 and 1998. The grantee for the project was the Barbados Association of Renewable Energy Science and Technology (GEF Small Grant Programme 2006).

The grantee for the project undertaken in Dominica in 2005 was a non-governmental organization, Lifeline Ministries, and the project was Alternative Technologies for Sustainable Living in a Small Island Developing State. The grant amount was US$ 2,000.00 and was used to establish a pilot

site where sustainable living practices were demonstrated (GEF Small Grant Programme 2006).

The GEF SGP also funded a project in St. David’s Grenada in 2005. The objective of this project was to promote accessible renewable technologies within the community and household. The Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries, Tourism Development Company, BP Trinidad and Tobago and GEF SGP co-funded the Pilot Solar Water Heating project in Trinidad and Tobago (GEF Small Grant Programme 2006). The active involvement of the GEF SGP in past climate change projects in the Caribbean implies that a relationship between this organization and the Caribbean exits. Therefore, the application for funding for future climate change projects in the Holetown area from either of the two funds mentioned would be an excellent initiative.

9 CONCLUSION

The vulnerability assessment undertaken in this study identified the sections of the Holetown area which are susceptible to damage and loss from relative sea level rise of 1.6 m by 2100 and storm surge of 0.8 and 2 m. The hazard maps created provided the spatial context for assessing the vulnerability of the Holetown area to the impacts of sea level rise and storm surge, determined by the location, socioeconomic status, type of infrastructure or degree of development.

Four of the residential areas including Sunset Crest, Jamestown Park, Trents and the area within the vicinity of First Street, lie within the relative sea level rise and storm surge impact zone. The vulnerability of specific dwellings in these areas is partly determined by the durability and quality of materials with which they were constructed. The application of a demographic health vulnerability score as a basis for further determination of vulnerability, adapted from the NOAA VAT, concluded that Trents and Sunset Crest possess a moderate vulnerability whereas Holetown Village (First Street) and Jamestown possess low vulnerability to relative sea level rise and storm surge. It was also noted that 47%, 21% and 84% of the critical facilities in the area are located within the impact zones defined by sea level rise of 1.6 m, and the 0.8 m and 2 m storm surge, respectively.

Further analysis revealed that of the 34 accommodation and restaurant establishments in the Holetown area 15 (44%), 25 (74%) and 30 (88%) of these lie within the 0.8 m storm surge, 1.6 relative sea level rise and 2 m storm surge impact zones, respectively. There are approximately $BDS 165, 050, 000.00 of tourism accommodation assets in the Holetown area that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Assessment of the retail and services establishments produced similar results with establishments being least vulnerable to the 0.8 m storm surge and most vulnerable to the 2 m storm surge due to the extensive nature of its impact zone. The cultural

heritage subsector in the Holetown area is also vulnerable, as the Monument lies within both the 1.6 m sea level rise and 2 m storm surge zones. This would have implications for the Holetown Festival, as the Monument, which is a tangible representation of such remembrance, is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge.

Proposed adaptation measures were tailored to suit the area of study and included considerations of legislative amendments, structural prevention and increased preparedness with the intention that they be incorporated in the medium and long-term development planning process at the national and community levels. The fact that national legislation provides the conditions for place-based legislation to be formulated, it is proposed that specific legislation relating to climate change be formulated as it is one of the mechanisms through which adaptation receives the funding and authority necessary for implementation. Provisions in this climate legislation should also allow for greater community participation in the decision making process as community participation is essential to the implementation of the adaptation options. Given the threat of sea level rise and storm surge, analysis of the existing and proposed plans for the development of the Holetown area by the institutions responsible for coastal management and infrastructural development is proposed as an adaptation measure. Although the impact of 1.6 m sea level rise on the Holetown area is not an immediate threat, national and local leaders must now begin to design adaptation strategies that are technically, financially and politically achievable in order to build the resilience of the Holetown area to this impending threat. The success of the Barbados Building Code as an adaptation strategy depends on the degree to which it is revised to take into account climate variability and change, as well as local best practices and experience which can complement the code.

Protection is an adaptation strategy that includes the construction of new, and the evaluation of existing, defensive measures and structures designed and implemented to protect the Holetown area against inundation and surge impacts from relative sea level rise by 2100 and storm surge. In order for future storm surge models to adequately take into consideration past and future storm surge for Barbados, vulnerability assessment studies like this one should be considered in the designing of such models while incorporating technological advances where hydro meteorological systems are concerned. The evacuation plan should be constantly updated based on research done on climate vulnerability and change which includes relative sea level rise and due consideration should be given to special needs of residents and disabled individuals. Applying the information presented by W.F. Baird and Associates Coastal Engineers Limited (2010) groins are the main structural adaptation measures proposed for various sites in the Holetown area.

Effective adaptation planning for the vulnerability of the Holetown area to relative sea level rise and storm surge requires the communication of information in a manner which fosters change of attitude and behaviour. The mechanisms suggested for transferring of the information on relative sea level rise, storm surge and adaption presented in this study included mainstreaming the information presented in future disaster risk reduction strategies and new adaptation initiatives, increased public awareness including the use of media houses and electronic communication, inclusion of relevant content in the schools’ curriculum and the use of the information to garner technical and financial support from donor agencies.

Elements of climate change such a relative sea level rise and intensification of storm surge are inevitable and will persist long after greenhouse gas concentrations stabilize as a result of the lags

inherent in the climate system. Consequently, the adaptive capacity of the Holetown area to relative sea level rise and storm surge depends on the collaboration of a diverse set of stakeholders operating at the local and national levels and the effectiveness of the specific adaption options pursued. The identification of vulnerable communities, facilities and sectors and the recommendation of additional adaptation options can assist in providing a platform for building resilience in the Holetown area to sea level rise and storm surge, as the impacts of climate change become more evident in the coming decades. The Holetown Community, and by extension, the Government of Barbados, must now begin to make effective adaptation choices based on all available information, including results from vulnerability assessments such as this one, if negative effects of climate change can be minimized.

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11 APPENDICES

Appendix 1: Structural Vulnerability score designed by International Centre for Geohazards (2008)

Height Vulnerability Score Description Attributes

1.00 Only one Floor Very High

0.50 Two Floors Moderate

0.25 Three or more floors Low

Material Vulnerability Score Description Attributes

1.00 Wood Very High

0.75 Wood and concrete/concrete blocks High

0.75 Stone and wood High

0.50 Stone Moderate

0.50 Metal Moderate

0.25 Concrete/concrete blocks Low

Barrier Vulnerability Score Description Attributes

1.00 No barrier Very High

0.75 Low/narrow earth embankment High

0.50 Low concrete wall Moderate

0.50 Low stone wall Moderate

0.25 High concrete wall Low

0.25 High stone wall Low

Appendix 2: Calculations: relative sea level rise for Holetown Barbados 11.1.1 Conversion and calculations: Using minimum vertical uplift Base year = 1990 Year in the future = 2100 Sg,2100 = 1 m So,2100 = 5 mm x 110 (years) = 550 mm = 0.55 m V. t = 0.19 mm x 110 (years) = 20.9 mm = 0.0209 m Therefore: Sr,t = Sg,t + So,t + V·t = 1 m + 0.55 m + 0.0209 m = 1.5709 m = 1.6 m Relative sea level rise for Holetown using minimum vertical uplift = 1.6 m 11.1.2 Conversion and calculations: Using median vertical uplift Base year = 1990 Year in the future = 2100 Sg,2100 = 1 m So,2100 = 5 mm x 110 (years) = 550 mm = 0.55 m V. t = 0.32 mm x 110 (years) = 35.2 mm = 0.0352 m Therefore: Sr,t = Sg,t + So,t + V·t = 1 m + 0.55 m + 0.0352 m = 1.5852m = 1.6 m Relative sea level rise for Holetown using median vertical uplift = 1.6 m 11.1.3 Conversion and calculations: Using maximum vertical uplift Base year = 1990 Year in the future = 2100 Sg,2100 = 1 m So,2100 = 5 mm x 110 (yrs) = 550 mm = 0.55 m V. t = 0.44 mm x 110 = 48.4 mm = 0.0484 m

Therefore: Sr,t = Sg,t + So,t + V·t = 1 m + 0.55 m + 0.0484 m = 1.5984 m = 1.6 m Relative sea level rise for Holetown using maximum vertical uplift = 1.6 m

Appendix 3: Output from TAOS model

Year Name of Storm Storm Surge (m) Tide Maximum (m) Wind Maximum (kts) 1898 No Name 1 1.7 0.13 87.6 1903 No Name 2 0.8 0.19 48.0 1909 No Name 3 0.7 0.23 26.2 1909 No Name 4 0.8 0.24 35.2 1916 No Name 5 0.6 0.24 33.4 1918 No Name 6 0.9 0.14 52.9 1918 No Name 7 0.9 0.06 41.7 1921 No Name 8 0.9 0.00 59.8 1924 No Name 9 0.8 0.27 29.7 1926 No Name 10 0.5 0.00 19.7 1931 No Name 11 1.3 0.00 52.8 1931 No Name 12 0.8 0.32 28.7 1933 No Name 13 0.7 0.24 34.4 1943 No Name 14 0.6 0.29 38.9 1944 No Name 15 0.9 0.16 50.3 1949 No name 16 0.8 0.21 47.6 1951 Hurricane Charlie 1.6 0.12 50.8 1951 Tropical Storm Dog 0.7 0.27 50.3 1954 Tropical Storm Hazel 1.0 0.15 62.2 1954 Tropical Storm Edna 1.0 0.15 62.2 1955 Hurricane Janet 2.0 0.19 156.2 1961 Hurricane Anna 0.9 0.00 59.8 1963 Hurricane Edith 1.1 0.05 74.1 1963 Hurricane Flora 1.1 0.05 74.1 1963 Tropical Storm Beulah 0.6 0.34 44.9 1964 Hurricane Cleo 1.1 0.05 74.1 1965 Hurricane Betsy 2.0 0.19 109.1 1966 Tropical Storm Ella 0.9 0.22 20.9 1966 Tropical Storm Judith 0.8 0.22 38.1 1970 Tropical Storm Dorothy 0.7 0.32 47.2 1971 Tropical Storm Irene 0.8 0.19 27.1 1974 Tropical Storm Gertrude 0.7 0.25 38.9 1978 Tropical Storm Cora 0.8 0.13 43.6 1979 Tropical Storm David 0.7 0.00 55.1 1980 Hurricane Allen 1.9 0.22 104.3

Year Name of Storm Storm Surge (m) Tide Maximum (m) Wind Maximum (kts) 1981 Tropical Storm Dennis 0.7 0.25 38.9 1988 Tropical Storm Joan 0.8 0.18 41.7 1988 Tropical Storm Gilbert 0.6 0.00 16.0 1989 Tropical Storm Hugo 0.9 0.29 47.6 1994 Tropical Storm Debbie 0.8 0.20 33.3 1995 Tropical Storm Iris 0.5 0.30 32.4 1995 Tropical Storm Marilyn 0.9 0.22 51.1 1999 Tropical Storm Jose 0.6 0.00 30.6 2001 Tropical Storm Jerry 1.2 0.05 53.7 2002 Tropical Storm Lili 0.9 0.00 39.7 2004 Tropical Storm Ivan 0.6 0.00 30.6 2005 Tropical Storm Emily 0.7 0.25 38.9 2010 Tropical Storm Tomas 1.6 0.20 50.8

Appendix 4: Calculation of demographic and health vulnerability score for Holetown area

Age Score Lower Score Upper Score Sight Score Hearing Score Neck/ Score Mental Score Average Residential % limb limb % of % of spine % of social Area of (s) % (s) % total total total vulnerability total of of score total total Holetown 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Village

Sunset 44 6 31 4 67 9 32 4 50 7 33 5 50 7 6 Crest

Trents 39 5 60 10 33 5 68 10 50 7 33 5 48 7 7 Area

Jamestown 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 5 1 0 1 Park

Appendix 5: Tourism accommodation valuation (best available data)

ROLL ESTABLISHMENT DISTRICT GROS AREA TAX SITE IMPROVED S COD YEAR VALUE VALUE AREA E 37.04.01.001 COLONY CLUB HOLETOWN 6.25 A 2010- 16335000 30000000 HOTEL 2011 37.04.01.002 CORAL REEF HOLETOWN 8.44 A 2010- 22058800 30000000 HOTEL 2011 37.04.01.010 CORAL REEF HOLETOWN 3.12 A 2010- 7549100 13000000 HOTEL EXT 2011 37.04.01.011 STJAMES VILLS HOLETOWN 8046 S 2010- 643600 1250000 2011 37.08.01.001 SETTLERS BEACH HOLETOWN 2.97 A 2010- 9733800 18000000 APTS 2011 37.08.01.002 SANDPIPER INN HOLETOWN 2.355 A 2010- 7692500 15000000 HOTEL 2011 37.08.01.010 DISCOVERY BAY HOLETOWN 4.959 A 2010- 16204100 26000000 INN 2011 37.08.01.019 TIDE HOLETOWN 9090 S 2010- 909000 0 RESTAURANT 2011 37.08.01.024 THE MEWS HOLETOWN 2330 S 2010- 81600 600000 2011 37.08.01.054 ISLAND VILLAS HOLETOWN 1.196 A 2010- 5169400 10000000 2011 37.08.01.064 UNIT 8 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH CONDO 2011 37.08.01.065 PALM BEACH HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 CONDO 2011 37.08.01.066 PALM BEACH HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 COND 2011 37.08.01.067 UNIT 11 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH CONDO 2011 37.08.01.068 UNIT 12 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH CONDO 2011 37.08.01.069 UNIT 14 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH COND 2011 37.08.01.070 UNIT 15 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH CON 2011 37.08.01.071 UNIT 1 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH CONDO 2011 37.08.01.072 UNIT 2 PALM BCH HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 COND 2011 37.08.01.073 UNIT 3 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99980 800000 BEACH CONDO 2011 37.08.01.074 UNIT 4 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH CONDO 2011

ROLL ESTABLISHMENT DISTRICT GROS AREA TAX SITE IMPROVED S COD YEAR VALUE VALUE AREA E 37.08.01.075 UNIT 5 PALM BCH HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 CONDO 2011 37.08.01.076 UNIT 6 PALM BCH HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 COND 2011 37.08.01.077 UNIT 7 PALM HOLETOWN 665 S 2010- 99800 800000 BEACH CONDO 2011 37.16.03.004 DIVI HERITAGE HOLETOWN 2.34 A 2010- 7448700 10000000 2011 38.13.02.051 ALL SEASONS HOLETOWN 26505 S 2010- 397600 0 EUROPA 2011 TOTAL 95620580 165050000