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Contributors Lt. General M. Mahbubur Rahman (retd) Major General AMSA Amin, ndc, psc, (retd) Lt. General Mohd Aminul Karim (retd) Major General Alauddin Wadud (retd) Major General Shamim Chowdhury (retd) Brigadier General Shahedul Anam Khan ndc, psc (retd) Dr. A.K. Abdul Momen Dr. Atiur Rahman Dr. Manish Thapa Ambassador Waliur Rahman Syed Ishtiaque Reza Harsh Vardhan Shringla Admiral RK Dhowan (retd) Maj Gen Harshak Kakar (retd) Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (retd) Maxim E. Dobrokhotov Imran A. Chowdhury Michael Foley Dr. Jamaluddin Ahmed Syed Badrul Ahsan Frequency : Weekly Editor : Rabb Majumder Published by Sadwaan Publication and Printed from B.S. Printing Press, 52/2, Toyenbee Circular Road (Mamun Mansion, Ground Floor), Wari, Dhaka-1203. Office Address: House No: 05, Level: 06 (S-1), Road: 04, DOHS Banani, Dhaka-1213. E-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], Website: www.securityworldbd.com Different Balancing Modes in the Indo-Pacific 4 Lt. General (Retd.) Mohd Aminul Karim A Tale of Newspaper Reading 16 Sheikh Hasina Development of Railway Net Work-the Economic, Political and Military Application 22 Dr. Jamaluddin Ahmed Bangladesh Army: A legacy of glory, tradition, honour and pride 46 Md Abu Tariq The many tales of tragedy. 50 Syed Badrul Ahsan History of Rossotrudnichestvo: 95 years of people's diplomacy 52 Maxim E. Dobrokhotov Dhaka- Copenhagen relationships will transform and deepen further as Denmark is 56 gradually shifting its bilateral focus from ‘aid-to-trade’, Danish Ambassador Rabb Majumder Bangladesh: From ashes to prosperity 60 Dr Atiur Rahman India keen to work with Bangladesh on defence hardware platforms 66 SW Desk Report Brief News 68 NOVEMBER 22, 2020 Vol. 2 4 The Security World November 22, 2020 Different Balancing Modes in the Indo-Pacific Lt. General (Retd.) Mohd Aminul Karim Introduction: and critical sea lanes of communication are in - In realist para - volved here where substantial merchandize pass digm, balancing through these sea-lanes regularly. These, then, each other in turn out to be vital national interests to the actors power political as energy coming from the Persian Gulf are criti - game is universal cal for the sustenance of economy and develop - and age-old. This is ment of the countries such as China, India, true in any civiliza - Japan, South Korea, Australia, the United States tion, period, cul - etc. ture, religion, Here the elements of both economy and leader - region, economy, ship role are relevant. Such trends are giving rise hemisphere, heartland, rimland and so on and so to polarization of forces. There are again in - forth. This is always an inexorable cycle of history tractable –historically rooted—-inter-country issues although it may take different twists and turns de - and disputes between the countries of the region. pending on the context primarily because of an - Over and above these nuclear issues are also af - archical international system. flicting these countries. Some are already declared A great transition—again as part of cycle of his - nuclear-armed, some are on the way to become tory— is underway that is spawning much shift in and some aspire to become in case there is a need the balance of power. So balancing each other is to ensure balance of power. All these variables vigorously underway at this point in time as part give rise to a complex scenario which is difficult of this cycle of history. The South China Sea, the to manage by traditional rule-based order. Rule- East China Sea, the Bay of Bengal, Western Pa - based orders seem to be under threat. cific, the Indian Ocean are the flashpoints with Interestingly, Japan has also gotten involved in potential to ignite this game to an unmanageable disputes of the South China Sea —apart from East level with catastrophic consequences. Important China Sea, Taiwan— especially after it signed the The Security World November 22, 2020 5 new guidelines on defense collaboration with the ters of the Sea. Now this has turned out to the United States. As part of this, Japan’s scope of op - bellwether to determine the leadership role for eration has now expanded to cover both Taiwan China and the United States. and the South China Sea. Japan is bent upon So as an obvious outcome of such relations of playing at least a balancing role by capacity-build - both these powers is to balance each other. More ing of countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, so this is a transition phase as mentioned. So and Indonesia, apart from its own. Japan even there is a surge in assertiveness in one side of the has deep strategic, civilian nuclear and economic scale while the other side is active and potent but cooperation with India. India has also interests it is not publicly displaying assertiveness. in East Asia, especially in the South China Sea As a case in point, the case of the South China and the Malacca Strait. Sea stands out clearly, at least at this point in time, Both Japan and China are actively involved in bal - as the United States, the most powerful military ancing—-both internal and external— each other in the world, has got intimately involved with its with or without the support of the allies. The pre - best possible spears and shields operating in the dominant ally here is the United States that has South China Sea round-the-clock with the slogan given rise to spoke-and-hub alliance system. For of freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and freedom of overflight as articulated by Amer - Japan external balancing is inevitable as for secu - ican Secretary of State in 2010. This is coming at rity expediency it has to rely on the United States. odds with the next most powerful military, i.e., of Practically it has turned out to be a junior part - China, also with its best possible spears and ner. But again for practical and operational expe - shields - may not be that sophisticated as that of diency it enjoys lots of freedom now. Japan is also the United States. But China has the inherent ad - developing stronger alignment relations with vantage of proximity to its mainland and its ex - India and Australia as mentioned. All these coun - pressed resolve to declare the SCS as its core value. tries are the claimant countries in the South Notwithstanding such a gap, the rising power is China Sea where China is a major stakeholder. continuously catching up. Again, of late, there is China is, in fact, claiming almost the entire wa - a propensity on the part of the predominant 6 The Security World November 22, 2020 power to look inward, with the slogan ‘America Having said so, the balance of power game in the first’, in order to keep its own house in order. So, region is seemingly impacting to avert an armed it seems a withdrawal syndrome is also underway. conflict among the conflicting countries thus Having said so, a typical balancing theory may not prompting Professor Scott to quip, “the benefits be applicable here. The balancing game is there - of such balancing may become apparent because fore rather tenuous which can trigger the polar - balancing is itself a stabilizing process.” Although ization of group-pole-change at any point in time. the balance of power has apparently stabilized the In fact, such changes are constantly evolving be - system, it has so far failed to resolve the disputes, cause of the volatility of power-weight -age, partic - thus creating a tensed and protracted impasse. ularly economic power. The balancing is working China is well known for playing its mastery in the at different levels and dimensions. Put together balance of power game. This is clearly articulated it is the Comprehensive National Power (CNP) by Henry Kissinger who seems to have understood which is applied to realize the grand-strategic ob - the Chinese psyche well, as reflected in his various jectives of the actors. published books/literature. He made a break - This paper attempts to explore the twists and turns through in winning over the critical Chinese sup - of the balancing game undergoing at an alarming port, as opposed to the mighty Soviet power, pace. The paper further explores how it is compli - during the heydays of the Cold War in 1971: cating the security situation in the region that is oth - The Chinese communist leaders coldly and unemotion - erwise volatile, fragmented—interest- wise—but ally assessed the requirements of the balance of power growing overwhelmingly both economically and little influenced by ideology or sentiment. They under - strategically. It can be formulated that balancing stand that the balance of power involved forces in con - each other in different dimensions with ends in stant flux that had to be continually adjusted to focus may only further complicate the security-eco - changing circumstances. Only one principle was invio - nomic issues and disputes those far from resolution. late: No nation could be permitted to be pre-eminent, Theoretical Argument however, fleetingly, over the combination of forces that On the balance of power system in the region, the could be arrayed against it, for in that fleeting moment Australia-based Lowly Institute for International of neglect, independence and identity could be irrevoca - Policy notes: bly lost… that in foreign policy national interest over - The system assumes competition between states and rode ideological differences. Ideological slogans were a hence the ever-present risk of aggression and conflict… façade for considerations of balance of power. Each side in which participants agree, if only tacitly to curb com - would be expected to insist on its principles; but each petition for influence in the interest of maintaining sys - side had an obligation not to let them interfere with the tem-wide stability .

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