USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

CUWS Outreach Journal 17 July 2015

Feature Item: “Full text of the nuclear deal: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.” Authored by the EU+3 and Iran; posted online by the Washington Post; published 14 July 2015; 159 pages. http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/world/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/1651/ http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165388-iran-deal-text.html www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/799769 The accord will end decades of economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. Effort to Overhaul Nuclear Missile System Expected to Begin this Fall 2. US B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Test may be Drilling Use in Europe - Moscow 3. US Tests Nuclear Bomb to Ensure Stockpile Remains Effective - Air Force U.S. Counter-WMD 1. Lavrov Reminds US: European Missile Defense Needless as Iran Deal Reached 2. State Dept: Ballistic Missile Defenses to Remain in Europe Despite Iran Deal 3. Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems Not Discussed in Conversation of Putin, Obama — Kremlin U.S. Arms Control 1. A New Arms Race? US Nuclear Test Might Trigger Response from , China 2. Russia to Live-Fire Iskander Tactical Missiles in Late July — Defense Ministry 3. Russia Puts Eight ICBMs into Service 4. Serial Production of Russia's Tupolev Tu-160M2 Bombers to Begin in 2023 — Defense Ministry Homeland Security/The Americas 1. GAO: Y-12 Could Run Out of Weapons-Grade Lithium by 2018 2. Electromagnetic Attack Could Claim 9 of 10 American Lives Asia/Pacific 1. N. Korea Confirms Replacement for Purged Defense Minister 2. Why China Needs a New Strategic Bomber Europe/Russia 1. Russia Already Working to Relaunch Tu-160 Supersonic Nuclear Bombers 2. Former CIA Bureau Chief: Putin Is ‘Perfectly Willing’ to Use Nuclear Weapons in Europe 3. Russia Developing Airships Equipped with Anti-Ballistic Missile Radars 4. Russian Bomber Crashes in 6th Military Aircraft Loss in One Month 5. Russia’s Defense Sector Demonstrates 10-15% Growth Dynamics — Official

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

6. Russia's Modernized Tu-160 Bomber: New Missiles, State-of-the-Art Engine 7. Russian Military Struggling to Modernize 1. Leader Says US 'Absolute Embodiment' of Arrogance 2. Spending Big: Saudi Arabia Works Towards Building Nuclear Capabilities 3. Iran Will Export Strategic Nuclear Materials — Official 4. Iran Achieved All Long-Sought Objectives in Nuclear Talks: Rouhani 5. Outline of Iran, 5+1 Terms of Agreement Released 6. Nuclear Deal's End to Iran Arms Embargo Worries Pentagon, Analysts 7. Kerry, Zarif Named Candidates for 2016 8. Some P5+1 Members Cannot Be Trusted: Ayatollah Khamenei 9. Obama Defends Iran Nuclear Deal, Calling it Best Alternative to avoid more Wars in Middle East 10. US Circulates UN Draft Resolution on Iran Nuclear Deal 11. Saudi Prince: Iran Deal Worse than One with N. Korea 12. Senior Cleric: US Bowed to Iranian Nation's Resistance in N. Talks Commentary 1. The Fading U.S. Nuclear Deterrent 2. Why They’re Cheering in Tehran 3. The Iran Nuclear Agreement: Tehran "Achieved All It Wanted" 4. The Iranian Nuclear-Inspection Charade

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Air Force Times – Tysons Corner, VA Effort to Overhaul Nuclear Missile System Expected to Begin this Fall By Brian Everstine, Staff writer July 11, 2015 The Air Force will take a major step toward overhauling its Cold War-era nuclear missiles this fall, with plans to field hundreds of the weapons even as it must comply with a treaty calling for reductions alongside Russia. The service expects to spend $62.3 billion over 30 years on 642 missiles, 400 of which would be operationally deployed, according to an Arms Control Association review of internal Air Force documents. The service had 447 deployed missiles as of last fall, and the reduction would keep the Air Force within New START reduction requirements. Plans also call for new ground control stations, new command and control systems and replacing the flight system. Contractors vying for the next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile system expect the Air Force to call for proposals this fall. In its fiscal 2016 budget request currently making its way through Congress, the Air Force is requesting $76.1 million to begin research and development of the new system. Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The funding request shows the Air Force beginning a deliberate process to kick-start replacement of the aging missiles, James Chilton, Boeing's vice president and general manager of Strategic Missile and Defense Systems, told reporters Tuesday. "Clearly the Air Force is starting down the path to do what we must with upgrading and replacing the Minuteman III," Chilton said. Boeing will be one of several contractors vying for the contract, which begins with a draft request for proposals expected this fall. The service will likely select three contractors for an initial phase of developing the technology in its proposal and reducing expected risks, followed by down-selecting to two contractors for engineering and manufacturing development of the proposals for the program. The contract would then be awarded, with an overall goal of initial operating capability by 2027, said Ted Kerzie, the director of strategic missile and defense systems for Boeing. The current system dates back to the 1960s, and Air Force missile officers have complained of antiquated equipment in their alert facilities. Air Force Global Strike Command in the fall completed an analysis of its ground-based systems to find upgrades to improve the system, while setting the stage for a follow-on system, Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson, commander of Global Strike Command, said in a September speech. "There are a lot of programs that we are undertaking either now or in the future to not only modernize and sustain the Minuteman III but set the ground work for GBSD," Wilson said at the Air Force Association's Air and Space Conference. "This is key to the innovative strategy that we have for the ground-based strategic deterrent. The key is that everything we are doing today to sustain the current system is a building block and part of the follow-on system." Adm. Cecil Haney, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, said in an essay in the Air & Space Power Journal, that modernization before the new system is ready also is needed for a safe deterrent. "Through investments in the enduring deterrent and supporting infrastructure, we can maintain an effective deterrent while not developing new nuclear warheads. In the coming years, our budget strategy should continue careful and deliberate investments in strategic deterrent concepts and capabilities," Haney wrote. "This effort is critical and must match the current and future strategic security environment if we are to build upon the stable foundation that benefits us all." Boeing on June 18 announced it had received an indefinite delivery, indefinite quality contract with the Air Force's Nuclear Weapon Center at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, worth $466.5 million to maintain guidance systems for the aging Minuteman III missiles. The company has been the exclusive contractor to work on the missiles since 1996, with the contract lasting through 2021, the company said. http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/tech/2015/07/11/minuteman-replacement-rfp- fall/29868915/ Return to Top

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia US B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Test may be Drilling Use in Europe - Moscow July 13, 2015 The recent test of the US В61-12 nuclear bomb confirms Washington’s plans to maintain nuclear weapons in Europe that are capable of reaching Russia, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said on Monday. Antonov slammed the US nuclear bomb test as “irresponsible" and "openly provocative.” "It turns out that under the disguise of a notorious and invented threat coming from the Russian side, the United States was not only increasing the military potential and activity of NATO member states, but was upgrading its nuclear potential as well," he said. According to Antonov, the Russian Defense Ministry can’t rule out the possibility that the Americans tested their nuclear bomb to examine the possibility of its use by NATO bombers in Europe. “The atomic bomb, which was tested, is a dual purpose device. It can be both an element of strategic offensive weapons – when delivered by heavy bombers – and an element of non-strategic nuclear weapons when delivered by tactical aircraft,” he said. “The special feature of the conducted the test was the fact that the F-15E fighter-bomber was used as a carrier for a nuclear weapon. This gives grounds to believe that the test was conducted in order to examine the possibility of using the B61-12 atomic bomb by NATO fighter-bombers stationed in Europe.” The fresh nuclear bomb test is evidence of America’s “persistent unwillingness” to give up on involving non-nuclear NATO states in joint nuclear missions, which contradicts the Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT), he stressed. The United States Air Force and the National Nuclear Security Administration tested the upgraded B61-12 nuclear bomb at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada on July 1. A safe version of the device was tested as it contained no nuclear warhead. The move is part of the program to prolong the lifespan of the B61-12 nuclear bomb, which has been in use since the 1960s. The US military plans to carry out two more tests of the nuclear bomb before the end of the year. Moscow and Washington have been trading accusations over violations of key nuclear treaties for years. In June, the head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, said NATO’s increased activity in Eastern Europe proves the US anti-missile defense shield was actually always aimed against Russia and China. “Washington insisted the missile defense shield was a deterrent to Iran, but now the world powers are negotiating with Iran, so logically plans for the system should be dropped, but this isn’t happening,” Patrushev said during an international security summit in Ulan-Ude. The US in turn blamed Russia for violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, saying Russia has a cruise missile (deployable from an Iskander launcher) that has a range over 500 kilometers.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

However, Antonov commented last week that Washington is ramping up the controversy over alleged Russian violations in order to cover up its own plans to deploy missiles in Europe. http://rt.com/news/273391-us-nuclear-bomb-europe/ Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency US Tests Nuclear Bomb to Ensure Stockpile Remains Effective - Air Force A US Air Force official claims that the US Air Force and National Nuclear Security Administration recently tested a refurbished version of the B61-12 nuclear bomb to meet President ’s decree to maintain an effective nuclear arsenal. 15 July 2015 WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The US Air Force and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) recently tested a refurbished version of the B61-12 nuclear bomb to meet President Barack Obama’s decree to maintain an effective nuclear arsenal, a US Air Force official told Sputnik. “[B-61s] are undergoing refurbishment through a joint NNSA and Air Force life extension program,” the official told Sputnik on Tuesday when asked about the nuclear bomb test. “[President Obama] has ensured that as long as there are nuclear weapons, we will maintain a safe, secure and effective stockpile… the B-61 Life Extension Program is part of ensuring we fulfil that mandate.” On Monday, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said the B61-12 nuclear bomb test in Nevada on July 1, 2015 was openly provocative and contrary to Washington's stated desire for complete nuclear disarmament. The US Air Force official argued the testing of an unarmed version of the B61 was solely to ensure that upgraded parts operated properly on a bomb that was built in 1961. "That flight test was to ensure the refurbishments are successful… this is not a new weapon or new capability,” the official stated. On Sunday, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation President David Krieger told Sputnik that the very fact that the United States conducted a bomb test signifies that the country has disregarded the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weaponry. The US nuclear program will complete a first run production of the B61-12 by 2020, according to the NNSA. A 2013 Congressional report estimated the cost of the life extension program at $8.1 billion, which includes $7.3 billion in direct B61-12 funding. http://sputniknews.com/us/20150715/1024635941.html Return to Top

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Lavrov Reminds US: European Missile Defense Needless as Iran Deal Reached Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reminded that US President Barack Obama said in April 2009 in Prague that if the Iran's nuclear issue was solved, there would be no need to create an air defense system in Europe. 14 July 2014 MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russia is expecting a reaction from the United States on comments that the agreement with Iran should resolve concerns about the European missile defense system, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday. "I'll note such a factor as broad context — we all remember when in April 2009 in Prague President [Barack] Obama said that if the Iranian nuclear issue was settled, there would be no need in creating an air defense system in Europe. That is why today we have drawn the attention of our US colleagues to this fact. We shall be waiting for the reaction." The historic agreement was reached in Vienna on Tuesday after over two weeks of strenuous talks following several years of intermittent negotiations. It will limit Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for the easing of international economic restrictions. The agreement on the Iranian nuclear program between the P5+1 group and Tehran will have a positive effect on Moscow-Tehran relations without the interference of Brussels and Washington, Lavrov said. "Our economic ties will, no doubt, receive a new impulse because there will be no more limitations that our Western partners have introduced through their unilateral illegitimate sanctions against Iran, and there will be no situation where US and EU attempts to implement unilateral sanctions hinder our companies in carrying out financial transactions and realizing other projects together with Iranian partners," Lavrov said at a press conference in Vienna. http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150714/1024601621.html Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency State Dept: Ballistic Missile Defenses to Remain in Europe despite Iran Deal US State Department official says the nuclear deal reached with Iran on Tuesday does not eliminate the need for the European ballistic missile defenses to counter Tehran’s ballistic missile threat. 15 July 2015 WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The nuclear deal reached with Iran on Tuesday does not eliminate the need for the European ballistic missile defenses to counter Tehran’s ballistic missile threat, US State Department official told Sputnik. “The successful resolution of the nuclear issue does not obviate the need for ballistic missile defenses to counter the Iranian ballistic missile threat,” the official stated on Tuesday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reminded on Tuesday about US President Barack Obama’s statement in 2009 that after the settlement of the situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program, the task of developing the European missile defense segment will lose relevance.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The State Department official stressed that the United States remains very concerned about Iran’s ballistic missile program, and will continue to take actions to counter Tehran, including through missile defense, sanctions, export controls and the 34-country Missile Technology Control Regime. “The President [Obama] has made it clear that successful resolution of the nuclear issue would not remove the need for ballistic missile defenses and that the United States will remain committed to the security of our Allies and Partners against possible ballistic missile threats, including those posed by Iran and its non-state proxies in the region,” the official added. US State Department official also says Washington will keep its sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program despite the nuclear deal reached between Tehran and the P5+1 group of international negotiators on Tuesday. “President Obama has said that US sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program will continue to be fully enforced,” the official stated on Tuesday. The official noted that the new UN Security Council resolution that will codify the agreement will keep in place the UN sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program for 8 years. “Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, which continues to be a source of concern to us [United States] and the international community,” the official added. On Tuesday, Iran and the P5+1 group of countries — China, , Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and — announced a final comprehensive agreement on Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Russia has repeatedly expressed concern over the creation of a US-designed ballistic missile defense system in Europe, approved in 2010 during a NATO summit in Lisbon. A range of European countries, including Poland, Romania, Spain and Turkey, agreed to deploy elements of this system on their territories. On April 6, the US Defense Department announced it would locate 60 percent of its military fleet to the Pacific-Indian Ocean area, including warships fitted with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system. NATO claims the systems are aimed primarily at countering threats from North Korea and Iran. http://sputniknews.com/military/20150715/1024631357.html Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems Not Discussed in Conversation of Putin, Obama — Kremlin The two leaders discussed the Iranian issue and cooperation in resolving Iran’s nuclear problem July 16, 2015 MOSCOW, July 16. /TASS/. The deployment of the US ABM systems to Europe was not discussed during the telephone conversation between the Russian and US presidents, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters answering a question from a TASS correspondent.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

"No, the ABM issue was not discussed," the Kremlin spokesman said. He noted that the two leaders had discussed the Iranian issue and cooperation in resolving Iran’s nuclear problem, "but missile defense was not discussed specifically." "But the situation with the ABM systems is quite clear," Peskov added. However, he rejected the allegations that this meant severing the dialogue on the topic. "No, this is not the case," Peskov said. Russian Foreign Minister earlier said that, in connection with reaching the deal on the Iranian nuclear program, Moscow would expect some response from Washington aimed at cancelling plans to create the European ABM segment. He recalled that the USPresident Barack Obama, speaking in Prague in 2009, noted that if the Iranian nuclear issue was resolved, the task of creating the European ABM segment would lose its validity." However, NATO said the alliance needed an anti-missile system despite the agreement reached with Iran. Putin-Obama conversation ‘constructive,’ disputable issues remain According to Peskov, the conversation between Putin and Obama was constructive but it was not meant to settle all the disputable points. "The conversation was constructive," Peskov stressed. "Such conversations of course do not settle disputable moments and cannot do this. But nevertheless they are at least very useful from the viewpoint of showing readiness to solve disputable moments through dialogue what is certainly encouraging," he said. Speaking on whether such talks signal a "thaw" in Russia-US relations, Peskov said "the mere fact of a dialogue may be considered as rather positive." Russia-US dialogue on continues The press secretary said the Russian-US dialogue on Syria continues. "The presidents always understand each other, and whether they agree or not - it’s another matter," he said, answering a question whether Putin and Obama understood each other during their Wednesday’s telephone conversation. Peskov replied in the negative to the question if the two leaders reached an agreement. "To understand and to agree - are different notions," the presidential press secretary said. Asked to specify, the Kremlin official said: "The dialogue continues." The Russian president said previously that only the Syrian people have the right to demand Assad’s resignation. According to Putin, Moscow’s position in the support of Syria’s incumbent president is based on the apprehension that otherwise the Syrian situation might repeat the Libyan or scenario. "We believe it’s a right position and one could hardly expect form us any other [than the support of the legitimate government]," Putin said on June 19 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov also said that in Moscow’s view, "the current Syrian leadership is a real and viable force in the confrontation with the Islamic State." http://tass.ru/en/russia/809009 Return to Top

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency A New Arms Race? US Nuclear Test Might Trigger Response from Russia, China More than six years after President Barack Obama said he wanted to rid the world of nuclear weapons, the United States continues to work toward upgrading its nuclear capabilities, risking the start of another global nuclear arms race. 11 July 2015 In April 2009, a recently inaugurated Obama, speaking in Prague, announced "America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." "And as nuclear power … as the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility to act. We cannot succeed in this endeavor alone, but we can lead it, we can start it." On July 1, more than six years after Obama's speech, the US Air Force and National Nuclear Security Administration successfully tested an unarmed B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb as part of a program aimed at upgrading the aging weapon. Obama's decision to upgrade the B61-12, rather than cancel the weapon, is the "clearest signal" that his 2009 comments were "hollow words," Brian Becker, national coordinator of the ANSWER Coalition, a Washington-based anti-war group, said in an email to Sputnik News. By authorizing the upgrade, Becker added, Obama violated the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a landmark multinational agreement enacted in 1970 to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. In 1995, the treaty was extended indefinitely. There are currently five variations of the B61-12 as well as a B-84, the most powerful freefall bomb in the US arsenal, each deployable on different aircraft. While a traditional gravity bomb is less accurate as it free falls or is deployed with a parachute from an aircraft, the guided gravity bomb includes a guided tail kit and internal guidance system that can steer the bomb towards a target with greater accuracy. According to Hans Kristensen, nuclear information project director at the Federation of American Scientists, there are significant tactical, efficiency and long-term strategic benefits in the United States’ efforts to bring all variations of the B61-12 into one guided gravity bomb system capable of deploying from both strategic and tactical fighter jets. "They have all these different types of weapons in the arsenal and they want to in the future to be able to reduce that to one gravity bomb, so it will be cheaper to maintain and simpler," Kristensen told Sputnik on Friday. By creating one type of guided gravity bomb deployable on both strategic and tactical fighter jets, he added, the United States also gains flexibility. "They want to have a more flexible weapon," Kristensen said, "one that can do all the missions, so you do not have to drag a certain type of aircraft in with a certain version of a gravity bomb to able to do this and that mission."

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

He said accuracy of the guided bomb will give the US greater capability — in hitting underground bunkers, for example — because there would be less collateral damage and the payload can be adjusted for specific missions. "When you have a guided weapon you can put it closer to target you want to destroy, then you can also choose a lower explosive yield. That is important because if you have an attack against an underground facility and you need to use a really huge yield that creates an enormous amount of radioactive fallout" that pollutes and can spread to other countries. Kristensen added, "Having to use a huge nuclear explosive yield is almost a self-deterrent." Last week’s test of the B61-12 came at the same time US and major world powers continued negotiations toward a deal with Iran aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. "The hypocrisy and double-speak couldn't be greater," said Becker, of ANSWER. "At the very moment the United States is negotiating with Iran insisting that it not acquire any future nuclear weapons program, the Obama Administration in violation of the NPT, is expanding not diminishing its nuclear arsenal." But the National Nuclear Security Administration has claimed the guided nuclear gravity bomb program is part of a refurbishment program and will in the end reduce nuclear weapons stockpiles. Kristensen, however, said that while the NNSA’s explanation is true, it is only part of a more complex issue that includes providing greater flexibility and capability. "If you are a nuclear weapons state there is always something to be concerned about when another nuclear weapons state is developing nuclear weapons that could be used against you. The US is concerned about it when Russia and China does it, and China and Russia are concerned about it when US does it." As for Obama's 2009 speech, Baker wonders if the president was appealing to the public while secretly ordering a proliferation of US nuclear weapons, or if his administration has transformed under pressure from the Pentagon. "Perhaps the answer is both," he said. "The dominating power of the Military-Industrial-Complex and the Pentagon brass is so complete in American politics that President Obama's capitulation today is eerily reminiscent of President [Jimmy] Carter's decision to abandon the SALT II Treaty with the in the late 1970s." "The acquiescence of two ‘liberal’ presidents before Pentagon war hawks triggered major nuclear arms escalations and posed a new danger to the prospects of world peace." http://sputniknews.com/us/20150711/1024480759.html Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia to Live-Fire Iskander Tactical Missiles in Late July — Defense Ministry The drills will be held in Russia's Astrakhan Region July 13, 2015 MOSCOW, July 13. /TASS/. A missile unit in Russia's Southern Military District will hold drills and live-fire Iskander tactical missile systems, the district's press service said on Monday. Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

"Servicemen of a missile unit of the Southern Military Distric deployed in the Krasnodar Territory began preparations for drills and live-firing of tactical Iskander-M missile systems that will start in late July at the Kapustin Yar range in the Astrakhan Region," the press service said. The Iskander-M system currently in service is capable of hitting targets at distances of 50 to 500 kilometers. http://tass.ru/en/russia/808097 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Russia Puts Eight ICBMs into Service Eight intercontinental ballistic missiles have been put into service in Russia's Strategic Missile Forces in the second quarter of 2015, the country's Deputy Minister of Defense Yuriy Borisov said Thursday. 16 July 2015 MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russian Strategic Missile Forces have also received seven mobile launchers, Borisov said. He added that Russia would carry out six space launches for military purposes by end of the year. According to the deputy minister, the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces carried out two launches in the second quarter of 2015. http://sputniknews.com/military/20150716/1024714236.html Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Serial Production of Russia's Tupolev Tu-160M2 Bomber to Begin in 2023 — Defense Ministry The implementation of the next-generation strategic bomber design project may be postponed July 17, 2015 SAMARA, July 17. /TASS/. Serial production of Russia’s strategic bomber Tupolev Tu-160M2 will be launched starting from 2023, and the implementation of the next-generation strategic bomber design project (prospective long-range aviation complex - PAK DA) will be somewhat shifted in time, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov told reporters on Friday. "According to the plans, serial production of the aircraft [Tu-160] new version is to be implemented starting from 2023," the deputy defense minister said during a visit to the Samara-based Kuznetsov Plant of the United Engine Corporation ( subsidiary). "The PAK DA project will be somewhat shifted beyond [2023], otherwise there is no sense in it," Borisov told reporters, answering a question about the PAK DA possible shifting in time because of the Tu-160 manufacturing.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

Russian President made the decision on reviving production of the Tu-160M aircraft (NATO reporting name: Blackjack) in May. Defense officials earlier said the decision would not hamper the creation of a new strategic bomber dubbed PAK DA (prospective aviation complex of long-range aviation). Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu ordered to study the issue of resuming the production of Tupolev Tu-160 supersonic strategic bombers at the Kazan aviation plant in the Volga Republic of Tatarstan in late April. There are currently around 15 Tu-160s in service that are undergoing modernization due to be completed in 2019. The Tu-160 bomber is "a unique plane that has been several decades abreast of time and has not used its constructive possibilities to the full extent until now," the Russian defense minister said. "No one has devised a better plane in the supersonic category up to date," Shoigu said. Russia is currently developing a new strategic bomber dubbed PAK DA (prospective aviation complex of long-range aviation). The new bomber is expected to make its first flight in 2019 and become operational in the Russian Air Force approximately in 2023-2025. http://tass.ru/en/russia/809303 Return to Top

Knoxville News Sentinel – Knoxville, TN GAO: Y-12 Could Run Out of Weapons-Grade Lithium by 2018 By Frank Munger July 14, 2015 OAK RIDGE — Y-12 could run out of purified lithium for refurbishing nuclear weapons as early as 2018, according to a Government Accountability Office report released this week. The projected demand for lithium-6, an isotope of lithium that’s used in the second stage of nuclear warheads, has reportedly tripled over the past few years as Y-12 refurbishes parts for aging weapons, the GAO report said. There is a large supply of lithium in storage at Y-12, including what’s contained in components from retired nuclear weapons. Those lithium stocks must be cleaned and prepared before being put to use in refurbished weapons components, and that’s become more difficult in recent years because of the age and condition of equipment once dedicated to that work. Until 2013, Y-12 depended on a key facility — Building 9204-2 or Beta-2 — and its “wet chemistry” equipment to convert the existing inventory of lithium chloride to a form that’s usable in nuclear weapons, the GAO report stated. Because of the condition of the old facility and its equipment, which was “at risk of catastrophic failure,” that’s no longer a viable option. The report noted a March 2014 incident in which a 300- pound block of concrete fell from the corroded ceiling in Y-12’s lithium facility. Some parts of the old lithium production system were rated among the highest health risks at Y-12. A new lithium production facility is in the planning stages at the Oak Ridge nuclear weapons plant. But the GAO criticized the National Nuclear Security Administration’s approach in developing a

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

lithium strategy, saying the NNSA placed too much emphasis on getting a new facility and not enough on alternatives for acquiring the weapons-grade material. The new lithium production facility reportedly won’t come online until 2025. As a result of problems at Beta-2, some of the lithium work in the past couple of years was shifted to a process known as “direct materials manufacturing.” Instead of using wet chemistry to purify the lithium and eventually convert it to lithium hydride or lithium deuteride for use in nuclear warhead parts, direct materials manufacturing involves the cleaning of lithium parts removed from disassembled weapons. The lithium hydride or lithium deuteride is manually sanded and wiped clean in Building 9202 and then sent to the forming and machining area in Beta-2. “During this stage, the lithium hydride or deuteride (feedstock) is broken into pieces and fed into a crusher/grinder to pulverize it into a powder, which is then blended and loaded into molds for pressing,” the GAO report said. “The resulting blanks are machined into high-precision components.” But the increased demand for purified lithium-6 has taxed the capabilities. It reportedly takes longer to certify material using the direct materials manufacturing process. Purified lithium components have to be certified or qualified by Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories — the weapons design labs — to ensure they are “suitable” for use in refurbished nuclear weapons, the GAO report said. The NNSA has identified various challenges, including potential delays in bringing the new production facility online because of “fiscal constraints.” Some “bridging actions” were reportedly proposed earlier this year to help meet production needs until a new facility comes online in 2025. Those actions could include purchasing enriched lithium from an outside source, converting some of the lithium chloride inventory at Y-12 into a weapons-usable form, and possibly extending the use of existing facilities through a series of upgrades. http://www.knoxnews.com/news/local-news/gao-y12-could-run-out-of-weaponsgrade-lithium- by-2018_72437035 Return to Top

The Daily Advertiser – Tysons Corner, VA Electromagnetic Attack Could Claim 9 of 10 American Lives By Claire Taylor July 15, 2015 An electromagnetic pulse attack can take down the nation's electric power grid, plunge the country into darkness and claim 9 out of 10 American lives within a year.

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That's not a prediction coming from doomsdayers or a sci-fi film. It's from Peter Vincent Pry, executive director of the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security, who served on several congressional commissions and on the staff of the House Armed Services Committee, and was a CIA intelligence officer from 1985-1995. An EMP, in short, is a burst of energy that can fry electronics, including computers. If the burst is powerful enough, like a small nuclear weapon exploded above the U.S., it could potentially shut down the nation's power grid for months, even years. Within a year after such an attack, 9 out of 10 Americans would die from disease, starvation and civil unrest, Pry said. There would be no food, no clean water, no transportation to bring food in, no cell phones, no computers, no medicine. The United States is not prepared for an EMP threat, either from the sun or from its enemies like China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, Pry said Wednesday during a news conference at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. Pry was joined by Ambassador Henry Cooper, former director of the Strategic Defense Initiative and chief negotiator of nuclear and space arms control treaties, who agreed. "Our governmental systems are broken in dealing with these issues, I believe so dysfunctional that people locally have got to learn to deal with the issues," Cooper said. The task force representatives are visiting UL assessing the university's assets and private sector assets for solutions to the threat, said Robert Shreve, of the Louisiana Technology Council. It could mean additional money for UL and Louisiana, he said. Since 2008, some have tried to get the U.S. House and Senate to pass legislation to seriously address the threat by protecting the nation's electric grid, to no avail, Pry said. The House in 2009 unanimously passed a bill, but one senator put the bill on hold, he said. The Critical Infrastructure Protection Act is being debated now to establish a new planning center that would serve as a vehicle for federal, state and local cooperation, Pry said. Meanwhile, some states like Maine are beefing up their own electric grids. Louisiana is working toward establishing a state EMP grid cyber task force committee of public and private sector representatives, Shreve said. The Louisiana Technology Council is involved and Ramesh Kolluru, vice president for research at UL, is on the committee, he said. Louisiana residents may think they're safe from EMP attacks. They're not, Cooper said. A North Korean satellite that can carry nuclear weapons capable of causing EMPs approaches from the south and flies over the southern U.S. today, he said. "Louisiana is a frontline state in the cyber war because satellites fly over you," Pry said. National missile defenses protect against attacks from the north but not from the south, he said. In 2013, two missiles on launchers were discovered beneath a shipment of sugar on a North Korean freighter passing through the Panama Canal, Pry said. The freighter had traveled through the Gulf of Mexico, he said. Barksdale Air Force Base near Shreveport/Bossier in northwest Louisiana may be important in an attack because it's one of only three bomber bases still active in the country, Cooper said. That also makes it "a prime target," he said.

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Asked if he thinks an EMP attack will happen within the next year, Pry said he would not be surprised. With North Korea's cyber attack on the film industry and China's suspected cyber attack on 22 million federal employees within the past year, it appears the nations are getting bolder. "It's a very ominous sign that the big one could be right around the corner," Pry said. http://www.theadvertiser.com/story/news/local/2015/07/15/electromagnetic-attack-claim- american-lives/30219565/ Return to Top

Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea N. Korea Confirms Replacement for Purged Defense Minister July 11, 2015 SEOUL, July 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korea confirmed Saturday the replacement of the country's former defense minister believed to have been executed earlier this year on the charge of treason. In a report on high-level military talks with Laos held in Pyongyang Saturday, the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency said four-star army General Pak Yong-sik attended the bilateral talks as the head of the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces, equivalent to South Korea's defense minister. It is the first time the North has confirmed the replacement of the defense minister since South Korea's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, said in May the previous defense minister, Hyon Yong-chol, was executed in April on charges of treason. Pak has appeared among the top-echelon entourage accompanying North Korean leader Kim Jong- un to major public events in recent KCNA reports, fueling outside assumptions that he must have been appointed the new defense minister. But the appointment was not officially confirmed until the Saturday report. The defense minister position is believed to be the second or third most influential military position next to the post of director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People's Army, now assumed by Hwang Pyong-so. Promoted to major general in the army in 1999, Pak Yong-sik climbed up the military ladder quickly to become a four-star general in May and a vice director at the General Political Bureau in April. During the high-level military dialogue on Saturday, officials discussed ways to further develop relations between the two countries' military and issues of mutual interest, KCNA reported. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2015/07/11/0200000000AEN20150711002600315.html Return to Top

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Want China Times – Taipei, Taiwan Why China Needs a New Strategic Bomber By Staff Reporter July 15, 2015 Beijing has many reasons to develop the next generation of the PLA Air Force's strategic bombers, according to an article in Shanghai's Guancha Syndicate. The article was written in response to the Air Force's development of a model to replace the obsolete H-6 bomber, as stated by Chinese defense expert Zhao Lei. Compared to the intercontinental ballistic missile and ballistic missile submarine, the strategic bomber is capable of inflicting more psychological damage on China's opponents. Even without actually dropping the bomb, the image of bombers flying above a populated city alone can bring fear to its residents. Living under the looming shadow of carpet bombing would make it harder for any government to gain popular support in the event of a declaration of war on China, said the report. Even though the land-based ballistic missile and ballistic missile submarine can deliver the same results, it is this psychological effect that has kept strategic bombers in development in both the United States and Russia. On its end, China can no longer count on the H-6, originally designed in the 1950s to be the backbone of the PLA Air Force's strategic bombing fleet. What the PLAAF needs in the future is a type of bomber which can launch both nuclear and conventional strikes against target cities. It must have a range at least 10,000 kilometers, and potentially up to 14,000km, as that of Russia's Tu-16 bombers. With China's next-gen air-launched cruise missile looking to hit a range between 3,000-4,000km, the PLA Air Force's next-generation strategic bomber would not need to stay in the air for very long. It still needs a flying range, nonetheless, of at least 10,000km, said the report. Unlike the US, China neither has the need to deploy its strategic bomber to different regions of the world, nor the need to spend as much money as the US to develop next-gen bombers like the B-2 Spirit or the Long-Range Strike-Bomber program. In next 15 years, China must have 100 strategic bombers and more than 50 aerial-refueling aircraft if the Air Force stands a chance to carry out a successful bombing raid against its enemy. This year, China's defense budget will run an estimated US$175 billion tab. Four percent goes to the deployment and maintenance of the PLA Air Force's strategic bomber fleets. China still needs to overcome its deficiencies in the development of aircraft engines. Once the Air Force is capable of equipping its aircraft with domestic engines such as the WS-10, China will have a next-gen bomber with characteristics similar to the B-1B bombers of the US Air Force. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150715000089&cid=1101 Return to Top

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The Moscow Times – Moscow, Russia Russia Already Working to Relaunch Tu-160 Supersonic Nuclear Bombers The Moscow Times July 10, 2015 Russia is already working to relaunch production of the powerful Soviet-designed Tupolev Tu-160 supersonic nuclear bomber, the Defense Ministry's senior procurement official told news agency RIA Novosti on Friday. “We are already working quickly [on the project], we have created a working group, scheduled monthly meetings with the Industry and Trade Ministry on how the work is progressing and appointed chief designers,” Deputy Defense Minister Yury Borisov told RIA Novosti. Designed in the twilight of the Soviet era, only 16 Tu-160 bombers were built before production ceased when defense funding dried up in the early 1990s. The aircraft, affectionately known in the Russian air force as the “White Swan,” are advanced supersonic bombers capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The move to relaunch production of the Tu-160 bomber comes after more than a year of Russian strategic bomber patrols near NATO borders, which have contributed to escalating tensions between Moscow and the West. Russian officials promised months ago that production of the Tu-160 would be relaunched, but details about the project's status have been sparse. Borisov said in early June that the new Tu-160s would be substantially upgraded versions of the Soviet-era design. While the plane's body will be unchanged, the components used in its construction will be entirely new, making it essentially a new aircraft, Borisov said. In May, the head of Russia's air force, Viktor Bondarev, said the Defense Ministry was interested in purchasing up to 50 of the new Tu-160s. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-already-working-to-relaunch-tu-160- supersonic-nuclear-bombers/525434.html Return to Top

Business Insider – New York, NY Former CIA Bureau Chief: Putin Is ‘Perfectly Willing’ to Use Nuclear Weapons in Europe By Mike Bird July 10, 2015 Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons in Europe to stop any NATO expansion, according to an ex-CIA bureau chief. Robert Dannenberg, who was once Chief of the Central Eurasia region for the Central Intelligence Agency, said that "nuclear weapons are not off the table" in Europe during an interview with Goldman Sachs researchers, which the bank published today as a note to investors.

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Dannenberg is now head of the office of global security at Goldman Sachs. He made the admission when he was asked what he was on the Kremlin's current military agenda. Here's the most shocking part of his response. Putin’s articulation of nuclear weapons doctrine is quite different from anything we have heard in recent history. He signed a revision of Russia's nuclear doctrine last December that allows for the use of theater tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and just announced a decision to expand Russia's nuclear arsenal. I participated in a forum with a number of very senior retired Russian military intelligence officers where they told us that nuclear weapons are not off the table and that their message was directly sanctioned by Putin. In the rest of the interview Dannenberg said that "we are in an extraordinarily dangerous time right now," citing the fact that United States and NATO military operations are now now operating near to their Russian counterparts in eastern Europe, and that "many of the channels of rapid military and intelligence communications that were carefully constructed during hte Cold War have been dismantled." He went on to explain further the Kremlin's attitude to the use of nuclear weapons: Their view is, nuclear weapons are undesirable, but we are perfectly willing to use them if necessary to prevent further encroachment of NATO. You can imagine the impact that kind of statement has in Washington and London. Last month Putin announced that Russia would add more than 40 extra intercontinental ballistic missiles to its military forces. He's also previously said that the government was prepared for nuclear confrontation over its annexation of Crimea. http://www.businessinsider.com/cia-bureau-chief-says-putin-open-to-using-nuclear-weapons-in- europe-2015-7 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Russia Developing Airships Equipped with Anti-Ballistic Missile Radars The principal advantage of an airship is the large surface of its body where radar systems can be mounted. The antennas of anti-ballistic missile radars will be mounted on the cover of an airship, according to a representative of Russia’s KRET company. 13 July 2015 Airships currently in development in Russia may be equipped with ballistic missile defense radars, Vladimir Mikheev, advisor for first vice-’s KRET concern, told RIA Novosti. "The principal advantage of an airship is the large surface of its body where radar systems can be mounted. I think some of the airships will be used for anti-ballistic missile defense needs. The antennas of ABM defense radars will be mounted on the cover of an airship. KRET probably will be among the companies which will develop and produce radars of this type," Mikheev said. Currently, KRET is conducting such research, "including using the principles of radio-photonics". "These radars are capable of detecting intercontinental ballistic missile launches and the flight trajectories of their re-entry vehicles," he added. Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

What is more, Mikheev said that KRET has reached agreements on developing on-board electronic systems with a number of airship-making companies. For instance, the Atlant dirigible developed by Avgur aeronautical center will be equipped with KRET-designed avionics. "It will be equipped with a great number of our devices. It’s a pretty large airship. First of all, if it is used by the Defense Ministry it will provide transportation support for military equipment," the KRET representative underscored. KRET is the Russia’s largest radio-electronic systems production company, part of Rostec state- owned corporation. The company consists of more than 95 enterprises and organizations which develop and produce military and civil radio-electronic products. http://sputniknews.com/military/20150713/1024549507.html Return to Top

The Moscow Times – Moscow, Russia Russian Bomber Crashes in 6th Military Aircraft Loss in One Month July 14, 2015 A Russian Tu-95 “Bear” strategic bomber crashed during routine training in Russia's Far East on Tuesday, news agency RIA Novosti reported, marking the second loss of a Tu-95 bomber and the sixth loss of a Russian military aircraft in a little over a month. Russia's aging aircraft fleet has been called into heavy service over the past 18 months as relations with the West deteriorated over the crisis in Ukraine. The NATO military alliance has said it intercepted 400 Russian aircraft near its borders last year — a 50 percent increase over 2013. The increased flight rate is taking a toll on Russia's fleets of MiG-29, Su-24 and Su-34 fighter jets, as well as the Tu-95 long-range bombers, all of which have experienced accidents since the beginning of June. The Defense Ministry said the crew in Tuesday's crash managed to bail out of the aircraft before it went down, and that it was not loaded with weapons. The Tu-95 is capable of carrying nuclear bombs or cruise missiles. An unidentified Defense Ministry source told RIA Novosti that the cause of the accident was “most likely a technical failure.” The last Tu-95 crash in early June was the result of an engine fire during takeoff. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-bomber-crashes-in-6th-military- aircraft-loss-in-one-month/525584.html Return to Top

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TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia’s Defense Sector Demonstrates 10-15% Growth Dynamics — Official Russia’s federal government is not reducing expenditures on the domestic defense and industrial sector and is complying with the obligations it assumed July 15, 2015 BARNAUL, July 15. /TASS/. Russia’s defense industry is demonstrating active growth dynamics, Military and Industrial Commission Board Deputy Head Oleg Bochkaryov said on Wednesday. "While the industry is registering a decline in the current economic situation, the defense sector is demonstrating a growth of 10-15% and some enterprises that are speeding up their rearmament programs are expanding output by 130-50%," Bochkaryov said at a working meeting held with Altai Territory Governor Alexander Karlin. Russia’s federal government is not reducing expenditures on the domestic defense and industrial sector and is complying with the obligations it assumed, the defense official said. "We have a complex goal in the current economic conditions, in which the country is working: not to disrupt the tasks and deadlines for the development and delivery of military hardware to our armed forces and to ensure economically acceptable parameters," he added. Russian Finance Ministry specialists announced in their report on July 10 that the share of expenses on defense in Russia was higher than on average in member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). This share is over 4% of GDP compared with about 1-2% of GDP for both groups of countries. The share of Russia’s expenses on defense, security, social policy and debt service may rise from 60% in 2014 to 72% in 2018. http://tass.ru/en/russia/808790 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Russia's Modernized Tu-160 Bomber: New Missiles, State-of-the-Art Engine A modernized version of the Russian strategic bomber Tu-160 will be equipped with several types of new missiles, according to the country's Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov. 17 July 2015 Several types of new missiles are now being developed for a modernized version of the Russian Tu- 160 strategic bomber; the plane, dubbed the Tu-160M2, will also be equipped with a state-of-the- art engine, the country's Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov told Russia's news agency RIA Novosti. "There will be a spate of such missiles in terms of range and characteristics," Borisov said. As for the Tu-160M2's flight range, it will be at least a thousand kilometers wider than that of its predecessor, thanks to the updated version of the NK-32 engine, which will be installed in the new bomber, according to Borisov.

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"This engine has been modernized and its main blocks and components become more efficient. On the whole, it has better endurance characteristics, which adds to the new bomber's range, increasing it by one thousands kilometers as compared with the existing version," Borisov said. He added that the production of the Tu-160M2 will begin in 2023 and that in this connection, the implementation of the PAK-DA project related to the prospective aviation system for long-range aviation will be "a little bit" off-schedule. The Tu-160 is a supersonic strategic bomber with variable-sweep wings, designed to engage targets around the globe with nuclear and conventional weapons. The revival of the production of this bomber was announced by the Russian Defense Minister in April 2015. The Tu-160M2's advanced equipment will make it possible to increase its effectiveness by more than two-fold as compared to the old version. http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150717/1024749894.html Return to Top

The Moscow Times – Moscow, Russia Russian Military Struggling to Modernize By Anna Dolgov July 17, 2015 The Russian military is failing to meet its plans for this year on re-equipping its armed forces with modernized weapons because of Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine and a decline of domestic industries, a deputy defense minister told President Vladimir Putin. Government defense contracts that have fallen behind schedule include production of Navy guard ships, Beriyev Be-200 amphibious aircraft, Vikhr anti-tank missiles, remote control and radio monitoring equipment for Igla surface-to-air missiles, and weapon launch systems for Tupolev-160 strategic bomber planes, Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov told the president during a video conference, according to a transcript released by the Kremlin on Thursday. "The objective reasons for the failure to meet state defense procurement orders include restrictions on the supply of imported parts and materials in connection with sanctions, discontinuation of production and the loss of an array of technologies, insufficient production facilities," Borisov said. But he maintained that Russia's defense industries were adjusting to the setbacks, and that so far, 38 percent of the government's defense purchases planned for this year have been completed. "On the whole, one could say that an absolute majority of enterprises have acquired the necessary production pace, are fulfilling their obligations to the Defense Ministry," Borisov said. Defense industries had been the focus of the Soviet economy, and as the Russian economy has taken a downturn amid Western sanctions, Putin said that work on military contracts was key to economic and technological development, and to providing employment.

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"I will especially emphasize that those who are delaying production and supplies of military technologies, who are letting down related industries, must within a short term ... correct the situation," Putin said. "And if that does not happen, the appropriate conclusions need to be made, including, if necessary, technological, organizational and personnel [changes]," he said. Reshaping the Russian military into a modern, effective force has been one of Putin's most ambitious projects, and one that has seen some successes. The government was planning to spend an estimated 20 trillion rubles ($351 billion at the current rate) on a military re-equipment program that was designed to run from 2011 to 2020, with nearly 80 percent of the funds intended for hi-tech weapons, according to figures cited by the Lenta.ru news portal earlier this year. Putin proclaimed during his marathon call-in show this spring that despite some setbacks, "without a doubt, this program will be fulfilled." "Our goal is to make sure that by that time, by 2020, the amount of new weapons and military technologies in our armed forces reached no less than 70 percent," he said. The share of modern weapons currently in service in the Russian military ranges, depending on the branch of the armed forces, from 30.5 percent to nearly 78 percent, according to military figures Putin quoted during this week's video conference. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-military-struggling-to- modernize/525782.html Return to Top

Press TV – Tehran, Iran Leader Says US 'Absolute Embodiment' of Arrogance Saturday, July 11, 2015 Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says the United States is 'absolute embodiment' of arrogance. Ayatollah Khamenei called on the Iranian nation to be prepared to continue the struggle against arrogant powers. "The campaign against arrogance is one of the principles of the [1979 Islamic] Revolution," the Leader said, adding that the Holy Qur'an mandates the drive against arrogance. There is no respite from the campaign against arrogance, Ayatollah Khamenei stressed in response to a question by one of the students about the status of the campaign against arrogance after the conclusion of the nuclear talks with the P5+1 group of world powers. The Leader made the remarks during a meeting with a group of university students in Tehran on Saturday. “We have also told the negotiating officials that you are authorized to only negotiate over the nuclear issue and although the American side sometimes raises regional issues such as Syria and , our officials say we do not negotiate over these issues,” the Leader stated.

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The Leader emphasized that Iran’s refusal to accept an arrogant system is “the main reason” behind world bullying powers’ hostility towards the Iranian nation. Ayatollah Khamenei added that based on Quranic principles, the campaign against arrogance will never stop. Iran’s influence angering Riyadh Ayatollah Khamenei also pointed to Iran’s “astonishing and spiritual presence and influence” in the region, which have incurred wrath of Saudi aggressors. The Leader said Saudi Arabia and its allies have been pounding Yemen and brutally killing the innocent and oppressed Yemeni people over the past 100 days mainly due to Iran’s influence in the region. “Despite claims, the influence of Islamic Iran in the region is a God-given gift,” he stated. The Leader added that the US and the reactionary states of the region admit to Iran’s regional influence in their covert talks, but they can do nothing about it. Ayatollah Khamenei strongly criticized the West for its silence towards Saudi Arabia’s unrelenting war on Yemen. The Leader said the Security Council has issued “one of the most disgraceful resolutions” on Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen, in which it condemned those who are under the bombardment and not those who are dropping bombs. On April 14, the 15-member council passed a resolution targeting the Houthi Ansarullah movement in Yemen. The council’s sanctions include arms embargo, asset freezes, and travel ban against Abdul Malik al- Houthi, the leader of the movement, Yemen’s former president, , and his son, Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh. The resolution, drawn up by and Arab states of the Persian Gulf, was adopted with 14 positive votes while Russia abstained. Saudi Arabia started military aggression against Yemen on March 26 in a bid to undermine the Houthi Ansarullah movement and to restore power to the country’s fugitive former President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, a staunch ally of Riyadh. Over 3,000 people, including 1,500 civilians, have been killed over the past three months in Yemen, according to the UN. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/07/11/419831/Leader-US-university-students Return to Top

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Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Spending Big: Saudi Arabia Works Towards Building Nuclear Capabilities As members of the P5+1 group, led by US Secretary of State John Kerry, inch closer towards established a nuclear deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia has been quietly shopping around in the global nuclear technology market-place. 11 July 2015 In June, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to London Prince Muhammed bin Nawwaf bin Abdulaziz al- Saud told the Telegraph during an interview that when it comes to nuclear weapons, "all options are on the table" for the kingdom. Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi’s ambassador to the United States, made a similar indication during an interview with CNN. When asked about the country’s nuclear ambitions, al-Jubeir said "Saudi Arabia will take whatever measures necessary in order to protect its security." As the P5+1 group, consisting of the US, China, Russia, France plus Germany, continues on a last- ditch effort to negotiate a deal that prevents Iran from pursuing its alleged nuclear weapon ambitions in exchange for lifting sanctions, it seems the desert kingdom is already preparing for the worst. In the latest effort to build up its nuclear capabilities, Saudi Arabia inked a deal with France to undertake feasibility studies into building two new nuclear reactors in the desert kingdom. The deal was announced ahead of a ceremony commemorating the inaugural Franco-Saudi Joint Commission in June. The deal with France follows another with Russia to cooperate on nuclear energy development, and similar agreements with China and Argentina. With the appealing price of $2 billion per reactor, many of the world’s reactor builders seem to be tripping over themselves to sign contracts with Saudi, and taking the Kingdom one step closer to achieving its ambitious goal of building 16 reactors by 2032. Saudi has cited many reasons for wanting to build up its nuclear capabilities, namely an interest in moving beyond oil dependency. The reason seems practical, as the desert kingdom has a growing population that is already accustomed to cheap energy. Nuclear power would also help with the kingdom’s diminishing water supply. All in all, the kingdom’s given reasons for developing nuclear capability appear to be in the interest of serving its public. Much like Iran’s reasons for pursuing its own nuclear power. However, unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has been more explicit about keeping its options open for buying or developing its own nuclear weapon. "We hope we receive the assurances that guarantee Iran will not pursue this kind of weapon," al- Saud told the Telegraph. "But if this does not happen, then all options will be on the table for Saudi Arabia." And according to political analyst, Nawaf Obaid, the kingdom already has "the capability to produce HEU (highly enriched uranium) and the advanced deliverable systems onto which nuclear warheads can be placed." Obaid, who often reflects the official Saudi government’s policy, wrote of a Saudi "Nuclear Defense Doctrine" in The Telegraph, arguing that the Kingdom had each of the necessary components to pursue a nuclear weapon, including financial means and technological infrastructure.

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"The Kingdom can only look to itself to protect its people, even if this means implementing a nuclear program," Obaid wrote, referring to an alleged Iran threat. "And make no mistake, it has the scientists to develop the technology, finances and national will to do so." http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20150711/1024483505.html Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Iran Will Export Strategic Nuclear Materials — Official The country plans to sell uranium and heavy water to other countries July 13, 2015 TEHRAN, July 13. /TASS/. Iran will sell its strategic nuclear materials to other countries, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi said on Monday. "We plan to sell our strategic nuclear products, including uranium and heavy water. And this means that we will become one of those countries that use their peaceful atomic technologies for commerce purposes and enter international market," Salehi said. Talking about coordinating the final comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, Salehi said that considerable progress was reached at talks between Tehran and P5+1 group of international mediators. "All technical issues have already been solved. The agreement envisages laying basis for sharing international experience with Iran in such spheres as commercializing the nuclear sector, including nuclear power plant construction and fuel production," Salehi added. Iranian media reported earlier today that the final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program will be reached in Vienna later on Monday. The final round of talks between Iran and the six powers (US, UK, Russia, China, France and Germany) on Teheran’s nuclear program is currently underway in the Austrian capital. A final comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear dossier was originally expected to be elaborated by June 30 but the negotiating process has been extended until July 7. Last Tuesday, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said that the deadline has been extended once again as the sides need several more days to reach the final comprehensive agreement. http://tass.ru/en/economy/808142 Return to Top

Press TV – Tehran, Iran Iran Achieved All Long-Sought Objectives in Nuclear Talks: Rouhani Tuesday, July 14, 2015 Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani says the Islamic Republic achieved all four objectives it was seeking throughout intensive nuclear talks with six world powers.

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"We were following four objectives in these negotiations. As part of today's agreement and under this Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, all the four objectives have been achieved," Rouhani said in a televised address on Tuesday after the conclusion of talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries. He enumerated the objectives as Iran's ability to go ahead with its nuclear activities, lifting of "cruel and inhumane sanctions," annulment of all "illegal" sanctions adopted by the UN Security Council against Iran and the withdrawal of Iran's nuclear dossier from the Security Council. Rouhani said the sanctions regime imposed on the Islamic Republic was never successful, adding that the bans only targeted the Iranian nation. He said the nuclear case had played into the hands of those involved in an Iranophobia campaign. Important juncture in history The Iranian president added that resistance of the Iranian nation guaranteed their victory in the nuclear talks. "Today, we are at an important juncture in the history of our country and our [Islamic] Revolution and the situation in the region," Rouhani said. He said some powers had had some illusions over the past 12 years regarding Iran, but "a new page has been turned and a new chapter has begun." "Iran will honor the agreement, if the other side abides by it," the Iranian president said, adding that the Iranian nation always keeps it promises. Lifting of sanctions President Rouhani said there are phases to a final agreement, and today served as the first of those steps, where all parties involved in the negotiations came to terms on the text of an agreement and its annexes. The negotiating partners agreed that the next phase will be within the coming days, he added. Rouhani said as a result of the talks, all sanctions imposed on Iran including the financial, economic and banking sanctions will be fully lifted and not suspended on the day of implementation of agreement. The Iranian president said the day of agreement will come when the United States and the clearly announce the lifting of all sanctions. From that day, President Rouhani added, Iran will begin implementation of its commitments. Language of respect President Rouhani recalled his first speech on the nuclear case in 2013, where he called on the global powers to stop bullying and put an end to the sanctions regime and instead speak with the Iranian nation through the language of respect. He said the Tuesday conclusion showed that the global powers had come to terms in that regard. Centrifuges spin on Elsewhere in his remarks, Rouhani elaborated on some details of the conclusion, including the number of Iran’s centrifuges in operation, saying that Tehran had convinced its negotiating partners to have 6,000 centrifuges in operation, although the other side initially wanted only 100 machines to remain in place.

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The Iranian president said the other side accepted Iran’s right to research and development, adding that Tehran also convinced the other side to have IR6 and IR8 machines and have UF6 gas injected to IR8. He said Iran’s right to have the heavy water reactor in Arak is now recognized and work will be done in the future for the reactor to be completed. The Fordow nuclear facility will also continue operations with 1,000 centrifuges, Rouhani stated. Defeat for the Israeli regime Rouhani said the Tuesday statement benefits not only Iran and the Iranian people, but all the resistant nations in the region. Israel’s efforts to push the nuclear talks of the past nearly two years into failure have led to the defeat of the Tel Aviv regime, the Iranian president stated. President Rouhani once again appreciated all those contributing in the course of the negotiations, most notably Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei for his guidance and the Iranian people for resisting the inhumane pressure over the past years. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/07/14/420197/Iran-P51-President-Rouhani-nuclear- achievement Return to Top

Mehr News Agency – Tehran, Iran Outline of Iran, 5+1 Terms of Agreement Released Tuesday, 14 July 2015 VIENNA, Jul. 14 (MNA) – Following the increasing signs of an imminent agreement over Tehran’s nuclear program on Tuesday, a summary of the agreements reached between Iran and the 5+1 has been given to Mehr News. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the 5+1 group of countries - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China plus Germany - together with EU foreign policy chief finally reached an agreement to end the unjust sanctions against Iran on Tuesday July 14, 2015 after 22 months of intensive talks. As a result of the agreement sealed within the Islamic Republic’ outlined framework and red lines, the following achievements have been obtained in the field of nuclear and sanctions removal. -The world powers will recognize Iran’s peaceful nuclear program and respect the country’s nuclear rights within the boundaries of international treaties. -Iran’s nuclear program that was unjustly introduced as a threat to global security will now be recognized as a field for international cooperation with other countries. -Iran will be recognized by the UN as a country with nuclear technology and entitled to rights of peaceful nuclear program including enrichment and full fuel cycle. -All economic and financial sanctions against Iran will be removed through a new Security Council resolution.

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-With the new UNSC resolution under article 25, in addition to article 41 on provisions related to removal of past sanctions, the treatment of UN Security Council toward Iran will also undergo a fundamental change. -All nuclear facilities in Iran will retain their activities. Contrary to the initial demands of the other side, none of the nuclear sites will be shut down. -The policy to prevent Iran’s enrichment activities failed. Iran will continue nuclear enrichment. -Iran’s nuclear infrastructure will be preserved. No centrifuge will be destroy and research and development on all advanced centrifuges including IR-4, IR-5, IR-6 and IR-8 will continue. -Arak heavy water reactor will remain as such. Any demands to return the facility to a light water reactor have been dismissed. The facility will be modernized and enjoy new additions through cooperating with owners of most advanced and secure world technologies. -Iran will enter global markets as a producer of nuclear products especially in the case of ‘enriched uranium’ and ‘heavy water’. All sanctions and limitations against imports and exports of nuclear material will be annulled. -All economic and financial sanctions in the fields of banking, oil, gas, petrochemicals, insurance, and transportation as imposed by the EU and the US under the pretext of Iran’s nuclear program will be immediately lifted upon the implementation of the agreement. -Ban on Iran’s missile activities including ballistic missiles will be limited to missiles designed for nuclear weapons, of which the Islamic Republic has never been and will be after. -Iran’s arms embargo will be lifted, replaced with some restrictions to be removed in 5 years. -Ban on purchasing sensitive dual-use items will be lifted and Iran’s needs will be met more easily through Iran and 5+1 joint commission. -Ban on Iranian students studying in the fields related to nuclear energy will be fully lifted. -For the very first time, after three decades of unjust sanctions, ban on the purchase of passenger aircrafts will be lifted and Iran will be provided with the opportunity to reconstruct the country’s air fleet and improve its flight security. -Billions of Iran’s blocked revenues in foreign banks will be unfrozen -A total of 800 individuals and legal entities, including the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), will be released from any sanctions. -Iran’s access to trade, technology, financial and energy will be facilitated -Ban or limitations on Iran’s economic cooperation in all fields including investment in oil, gas and petrochemical industries will be removed. -and finally, Iran will be offered international cooperation for building nuclear power plants and research reactors.

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The agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will, according to Iranian officials, be presented to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which will adopt a resolution within seven to 10 days making the JCPOA an official international document. http://en.mehrnews.com/news/108581/Outline-of-Iran-5-1-terms-of-agreement-released Return to Top

Military.com – New York, NY Nuclear Deal's End to Iran Arms Embargo Worries Pentagon, Analysts By Brendan McGarry and Michael Hoffman July 14, 2015 President Obama's nominee to become the Pentagon's No. 2 officer joined a chorus of defense hawks worried the landmark deal meant to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions will jumpstart the Iranian economy and generate more revenue for the regime's military forces. Air Force Gen. Paul J. Selva, currently the head of U.S. Transportation Command, told Congress during his nomination hearing Tuesday that increased Iranian revenue could be used "to sponsor state terrorism should they choose to do so." The agreement between the Iran and several Western countries, including the U.S., would allow the Islamic republic to pursue a limited atomic program for peaceful purposes over the next decade while also lifting sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy as well as a key arms embargo. President Obama hailed the historic deal, announced on Tuesday after two years of negotiations, as a way to prevent Tehran from producing highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium -- materials needed to build a nuclear weapon. Others criticized the pact, saying it would result in more funding for the regime to develop nuclear centrifuges and intercontinental ballistic missiles. "Under this deal, Iran's vast nuclear infrastructure remains largely intact," Jim DeMint, the president of the Heritage Foundation, a right-leaning think tank in Washington, D.C., and a former Republican senator from South Carolina, said in a statement. "The 'freeze' on uranium enrichment is both temporary and partial. That's not a freeze; it's a slight chill at best." What's more, the agreement would immediately provide Iran with as much as $50 billion in sanctions relief and eventually some $150 billion more with the release of money frozen in overseas bank accounts, DeMint said. The latter figure is more than six times what Israel -- a country that Iranian leaders have vowed to destroy -- spends on defense each year, he said. "The deal also gives Tehran plenty of money to ramp up these -- and other -- destabilizing activities," DeMint said. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter will travel to Israel to reassure the key U.S. ally. "We remain prepared and postured to bolster the security of our friends and allies in the region, including Israel; to defense against aggression; ensure freedom of navigation in the Gulf; and check Iranian malign influence," Carter said in a statement. "We will utilize the military option if necessary."

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Rise of Iranian Influence The rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as well as the continued unrest in Syria has increased the level of influence of Iran in the region. Iraqi leaders have turned to Iran for support in pushing ISIS militants out of key cities in Iraq's Anbar Province after Iraqi army units crumbled in the Sunni-dominated province. Defense analysts fear that influence will grow rapidly as Iran's military leaders gain the necessary resources to build out its military. As part of the Iran nuclear deal, U.S. negotiators agreed to end the embargo on the import and export of conventional arms and ballistic missiles. Russia and China pushed hard for this embargo to end as the two countries stand to benefit from an increased arms trade with Iran. Other countries and non-state actors such as Syria, Hezbollah and North Korea could also stand to benefit as Iran seeks to boost its military while also selling arms produced in Iran. One U.S. intelligent analyst, who asked not to be named, feared lifting the embargo will have wider influence on the U.S. and the Middle East than the changes to nuclear policy. He explained that he foresaw an arms race starting in the Middle East as the Gulf Arab states and Israel seek to protect themselves from a strengthening Iran. , for example, bought Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France in the midst of negotiations. Carter warned last week against the lifting of the embargo, specifically on ballistic missiles, when he spoke before Congress. He said the Pentagon wants to make sure Iran's intercontinental ballistic missile program does not advance. "The reason that we want to stop Iran from having an I.C.B.M. program is that the 'I' in I.C.B.M. stands for 'intercontinental,' which means having the capability of flying from Iran to the United States," Carter told Congress. 'Built on Verification' The White House said the agreement will curb Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium by 98 percent, put two-thirds of its centrifuges under international supervision, modify its nuclear reactor in Arak so it can't produce weapons-grade plutonium and ship spent fuel from the reactor out of the country. "Iran currently has a stockpile that could produce up to 10 nuclear weapons," Obama said in a statement. "Now, its uranium stockpile will be reduced to a fraction of what would be required for a single weapon." He added, "This deal is not built on trust -- it's built on verification. Under this deal, we will, for the first time, be in a position to verify that Iran is meeting all of these commitments." http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/07/14/nuclear-deals-end-to-iran-arms-embargo- worries-pentagon.html Return to Top

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Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 15 July 2015 Kerry, Zarif Named Candidates for 2016 Nobel Peace Prize Vienna, July 14, IRNA -- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in introduced Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif and the US Secretary of State John Kerry as candidates for the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize for their role in historic agreement. Tariq Rauf, SIPRI's director of the Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Program, said the Iran-G5+1 accord is the most distinguished nuclear accord in two decades. He said the nuclear accord testifies grant of the 2016 Noble Peace Prize to John Kerry and Mohammad-Javad Zarif. He added that Iran nuclear accord will pave the way for getting confident over peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program and lift of sanctions. http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81683760/ Return to Top

Press TV – Tehran, Iran Some P5+1 Members Cannot Be Trusted: Ayatollah Khamenei Wednesday, July 15, 2015 Leader of the Islamic Republic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says some members of the P5+1 group are not reliable, calling on Iranian authorities to exercise vigilance in the face of possible violation of the recent conclusion of nuclear talks. Ayatollah Khamenei made the comments in response to a letter by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the outcome of intensive negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 states – the US, France, Britain, Russia, China and Germany-- on Tehran’s nuclear program. The Leader further thanked the Iranian nuclear negotiating team for their hard work throughout the talks, saying the conclusion of nuclear negotiations constitutes “an important step.” Ayatollah Khamenei further said the text of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) must be carefully reviewed and go through the foreseen legal channels, stressing that no room should be given to possible breaches by the opposite sides if the text is approved. “You are well aware that some of the six states in the opposite side are not trustworthy at all,” the Leader added. In a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, the Iranian president hailed Iran’s diplomatic victory in the nuclear talks with the P5+1, saying such a victory was achieved when big powers realized that they are not able to hinder the Islamic Republic’s progress in the area of nuclear science and technology. The Iranian chief executive further expressed gratitude to Ayatollah Khamenei for his unwavering support for the Iranian nuclear team all through the lengthy negotiations, describing the nation’s

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama unity as well as the negotiating team's commitment to the guidelines set by the Leader as the key to the great achievement. Iran’s recent success thwarted the enemies’ attempts to promote the Iranophobia campaign and strengthened the Islamic Republic’s status in the international arena, Rouhani wrote. Following 18 days of intensive talks in the Austrian capital city of Vienna over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers - the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia plus Germany - reached a conclusion on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on July 14. Based on the nuclear conclusion, limits will be put on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the removal of all economic and financial bans against Tehran. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/07/15/420422/Iran-Ayatollah-Khamenei-Rouhani- Nuclear-Conclusion-P51 Return to Top

Xinhua News – Beijing, China Obama Defends Iran Nuclear Deal, Calling it Best Alternative to avoid more Wars in Middle East (Xinhua) July 16, 2015 WASHINGTON, July 15 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. President Barack Obama said Wednesday that the Iran nuclear agreement was the best way to avoid a nuclear arms race and more wars in the Middle East, urging Congress to approve the deal. "Without a deal, there would be no limits to Iran's nuclear program and Iran could move close to a nuclear bomb," Obama said during a news conference held at the White House. "Without a deal, we risk even more war in the Middle East." While stressing that other countries in the region would feel compelled to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs, Obama defended the deal "is our best means of assuring that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon." Obama announced Tuesday that a comprehensive long-term Iran nuclear deal has been reached between Iran and six world major countries, claiming it will prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and makes U.S. and the world "safer and more secure." The agreement is seen as a political triumph for Obama. Republican lawmakers and U.S. ally Israel, however, blasted the deal vehemently. Critics said Obama abandoned many of his goals set for the negotiations and made too much concessions to Tehran in striking such a deal. "I'm hearing a lot of talking points being repeated," Obama said. "What I haven't heard is what is your preferred alternative? " He scolded the critics of deal, including Republicans in Congress and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for ignoring the facts of the deal.

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"My hope is that everyone in Congress also evaluates this agreement based on the facts," Obama said. "Not on politics. Not on posturing. Not on the fact that this is a deal that I bring to Congress, as opposed to a Republican president. Not based on lobbying." Obama on Tuesday urged Congress to approve the deal and threatened to veto any vote against it. "I believe it would be irresponsible to walk away from the deal, but on such a tough issue, it is important that the American people and the representatives in Congress get a full opportunity to review the deal," Obama said. "I am confident that this deal will meet the national security interests of the United States and our allies, so I will veto any legislation that prevents the successful implementation of this deal." U.S. Congress has 60 days to review and vote on the Iran nuclear agreement. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/16/c_134416139.htm Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran US Circulates UN Draft Resolution on Iran Nuclear Deal July 16, 2015 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The US on Wednesday circulated a draft resolution to the UN Security Council that would endorse the conclusion of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers, said diplomats ahead of a likely vote next week. US Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power briefed the 15-member council on the draft document behind closed doors. The seven-page draft, seen by Reuters, states that the seven previous UN resolutions on Iran will be terminated when the International Atomic Energy Agency submits a report verifying Iran has implemented certain nuclear-related measures. Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) concluded more than two weeks of intensive talks over Tehran's nuclear program in the Austrian capital of Vienna on July 14. The negotiating parties reached a conclusion over the text of a comprehensive 159-page deal on the nuclear issue after 22 months of talks. http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/801596 Return to Top

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Al Arabiya – Dubai, U.A.E. Saudi Prince: Iran Deal Worse than One with N. Korea By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Thursday, 16 July 2015 Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a former ambassador to Washington, has said in an opinion piece for Elaph newspaper that the United States moved forward with the Iran nuclear deal despite predictions of the situation developing into a North Korean-style scenario. In a column published by the London-based news website Elaph, the former chief of intelligence said the nuclear deal “will wreak havoc in the Middle East,” a region already plagued by major conflicts. “Serious pundits in the media and in politics say that President Obama’s Iran deal is ‘déjà vu’ in relation to President Clinton’s North Korean nuclear deal.” President Clinton’s decision was based on strategic foreign policy analysts, top secret national intelligence, and the desire “to save the people of North Korea from starvation,” wrote Prince Bandar, in reference to the 1994 “Agreed Framework” between North Korea and the United States that aimed to freeze the country’s nuclear power program. The agreement finally broke down in 2003 when North Korea announced its withdrawal from the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and later declared it had manufactured nuclear weapons. The country now has as many as 20 nuclear warheads, according to Chinese intelligence. President Clinton “would not have made that decision” had he known it was based on “a major intelligence failure” and “wrong foreign policy analysis,” wrote Prince Bandar, nephew of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz. But “President Obama made his decision to go ahead with the Iran nuclear deal fully aware that the strategic foreign policy analysis, the national intelligence information, and America’s allies in the region’s intelligence all predict not only the same outcome of the North Korean nuclear deal but worse - with the billions of dollars that Iran will have access to,” Prince Bandar stated. “It will wreak havoc in the Middle East which is already living in a disastrous environment, in which Iran is a major player in the destabilization of the region,” he continued. Why would Obama go ahead with such an agreement, “knowing what President Clinton didn’t know when he made his deal with North Korea?” questioned the former diplomat. It’s because Obama “ideologically believes what he is doing is right,” said Prince Bandar. “Everything else, that could be a disastrous result of his decision, I believe he thinks it is acceptable collateral damage,” he added. “I am convinced more than any other time that my good friend, the magnificent old fox , was correct when he said ‘America’s enemies should fear America, but America’s friends should fear America more’,” wrote Prince Bandar, quoting the former U.S. secretary of state and Nobel Peace Prize winner who served under former presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. “People in my region now are relying on God’s will, and consolidating their local capabilities and analysis with everybody else except our oldest and most powerful ally,” wrote the prince.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

On Tuesday, Iran and five major world powers formally concluded a deal that aimed at ensuring Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. Iran and major powers agreed on a mechanism under which the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, could gain access to suspect nuclear sites in Iran under certain conditions, according to the text of the Iran nuclear agreement. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/07/16/Saudi-Prince-Bandar-Iran-deal- worse-than-North-Korean-deal-.html Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Tehran, Iran Friday, July 17, 2015 Senior Cleric: US Bowed to Iranian Nation's Resistance in N. Talks TEHRAN (FNA) - Tehran's Provisional Friday Prayers Leader Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani said the Iran-world powers deal came after the arrogant powers eventually bowed to the resistance shown by the Iranian government and nation. Addressing a large and fervent congregation of the people on Tehran University campus on Friday, Ayatollah Movahedi Kermani said, "The US grew disappointed after it saw the resistance of the Iranian nation against the economic sanctions and pressures, and Washington realized that it cannot make the Iranian nation withdraw; it also came to realize that it should respect the Iranians." Ayatollah Movahedi Kermani thanked the Iranian negotiating team for their relentless efforts which led to striking a final agreement with the world powers. He pointed to the anger of the Israeli officials at the powers' agreement with Iran, and said, "The Zionist regime and its supporters, specially the Saudi regime, are highly displeased with this agreement and we should tell them be angry at the Iranian nation and die of this anger." Iran and the six world powers struck a deal in Vienna on Tuesday. The hitherto elusive agreement was finally nailed down on Tuesday in the ritzy Palais Coburg Hotel in the Austrian capital of Vienna, where negotiators from Iran and the six other countries had recently been spending over two weeks to work out the remaining technical and political issues. The agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will be presented to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which will adopt a resolution in seven to 10 days making the JCPOA an official document. http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940426000518 Return to Top

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

The Wall Street Journal – New York, NY OPINION/Commentary The Fading U.S. Nuclear Deterrent The next president must restore America’s aging arsenal to face a world of new atomic threats. By Robert R. Monroe July 12, 2015 None of the presidential candidates is talking about it, but one of the most important issues in the 2016 election should be the precarious decline of America’s nuclear forces. When the Cold War ended in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the U.S. began a debilitating nuclear freeze, establishing ever-broader antinuclear policies and largely ignoring the growing threat posed by these massively destructive weapons. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military strategy focuses on early use of these weapons in conflicts large and small. China is in the midst of an immense strategic modernization. India and Pakistan are expanding and improving their nuclear arsenals. North Korea issues nuclear threats almost weekly. The Mideast is dissolving into chaos, and Iran’s advanced nuclear-weapons program has been on the front pages for two years. To address these multiplying threats, U.S. nuclear policy must undergo radical changes. Because policies as important as this require White House and congressional agreement and the support of the American people, a full-scale national debate is essential. I propose we begin with the following five changes: • Discard President Obama’s goal of a “world without nuclear weapons.” Such an impossible vision can be expressed as a hope, but as U.S. policy it is nonsensical and terribly damaging. America’s pre- eminent national goal—on which U.S. survival depends—must be paramount nuclear-weapons strength. Since the dawn of the nuclear era, 12 U.S. presidents—six Democrats and six Republicans—have specifically stated nuclear superiority as U.S. policy. Mr. Obama reversed it upon taking office and has accelerated the deterioration of America’s nuclear arsenal. • A return to legitimate deterrence in U.S. foreign policy. Deterrence is based on fear. You threaten your adversary with intolerable consequences if he does not comply with your demands. Then, through reinforcing actions, you convince him that you have the will and capability to carry out your threat. For five Cold War decades the daily practice of deterrence kept the U.S. safe from Soviet attack and the devastation of nuclear war. But for the past two decades nuclear deterrence has been missing from the U.S. toolbox. Bring it back. • Establish effective, rather than counterproductive, nonproliferation policies. The proliferation of nuclear weapons is a threat like no other. Yet for decades U.S. nonproliferation policy has been misguided and inept. Our leaders have passively allowed the valuable Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which entered into force in 1970, to be distorted into a useless nuclear-disarmament treaty. Most important, we’ve failed to emphasize—nationally and internationally—that nonproliferation requires enforcement. Hand-wringing and sanctions won’t work. There must be a cop on the beat, and military force must be used if necessary. Finally, our attempted nuclear agreement with Iran is counterproductive; if signed it will trigger a global cascade of proliferation.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

• Modernize America’s nuclear arsenal. President Obama’s policy doesn’t permit research, design, testing or production of new, advanced nuclear weapons. Our current nuclear weapons—strategic and tactical—were designed and built decades ago to meet different threats, and have gone untested for decades. With great urgency, the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration must be freed to produce an entirely new nuclear-weapons stockpile, including specialized low-yield advanced weapons. Production and testing facilities—atrophying for decades—must also be built on an accelerated schedule. • Also with great urgency, recover the Pentagon’s nuclear-weapons capabilities. These have also suffered from Mr. Obama’s policies. Hundreds of nuclear-weapons specialists have left the U.S. government without replacement. Research into the effects of nuclear weapons, a critical field of military study, is virtually nonexistent. Nuclear-weapons strategy and tactics are rarely included in military exercises. Worse, U.S. leaders have failed to plan and budget for the next generation of nuclear-delivery systems—intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and bombers. If these policies seem tough, recall that the U.S. observed them all for a half-century, just a generation ago. Today’s nuclear threats are as dangerous as those during the Cold War. Change can’t wait. Even if reform begins in 2017 under the next administration, it will take decades to regain America’s once dominant nuclear capabilities and re-establish a viable policy of deterrence. Mr. Monroe is a retired vice admiral in the U.S. Navy and a former director of the Defense Nuclear Agency (1977-80). http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fading-u-s-nuclear-deterrent-1436739871 Return to Top

The Wall Street Journal – New York, NY OPINION/Commentary Why They’re Cheering in Tehran The nuclear deal is an opaque 159 pages, offering sanctions relief and vague promises of inspections. By Frederick Kagan July 14, 2015 The nuclear agreement with Iran announced Tuesday is an astoundingly good deal, far surpassing the hopes of anyone . . . in Tehran. It requires Iran to reduce the number of centrifuges enriching uranium by about half, to sell most of its current uranium stockpile or “downblend” it to lower levels of enrichment, and to accept inspections (whose precise nature is yet to be specified) by the International Atomic Energy Agency, something that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had wanted to avoid. But the agreement also permits Iran to phase out the first-generation centrifuges on which it now relies and focus its research and development by exclusively using a number of advanced centrifuge models many times more efficient, which has been Tehran’s plan all along. The deal will also Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama entirely end the United Nations’ involvement in Iran’s nuclear program in 10 years, and in 15 years will lift most restrictions on the program. Even that, though, is not Tehran’s biggest win. The main achievement of the regime’s negotiators is striking a deal that commits the West to removing almost all sanctions on Iran, including most of those imposed to reduce terrorism or to prevent weapons proliferation. Most of the sanctions are likely to end in a few months. Thus the agreement ensures that after a short delay Iran will be able to lay the groundwork for a large nuclear arsenal and, in the interim, expand its conventional military capabilities as much as the regime pleases. The supreme leader should be very proud of his team. The agreement consists of 159 pages of opaque prose, and key sections are referred to but are not clearly marked. Even figuring out the timeline embodied in the deal is hard, but it appears to run about as follows: “Finalization Day” was July 14. The agreement stipulates that a resolution will be submitted to the United Nations Security Council “promptly after the conclusion of the negotiations . . . for adoption without delay” that will “terminate” all preceding U.N. Security Council resolutions against Iran. The document doesn’t mention the 60-day window for review by the U.S. Congress, and the language in this section suggests that action in the U.N. will not await any congressional vote. “Adoption Day” is the next major milestone, coming either 90 days after the approval of the Security Council resolution or “at an earlier date by mutual consent.” If the Security Council moves smartly, Adoption Day could come in October. At that point Iran commits to apply the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which governs enhanced international inspections. But this commitment is provisional, “pending ratification by the Majlis”—the Iranian parliament. It is again noteworthy that no mention is made of any action to be taken by the U.S. Congress, despite the nod to Iran’s legislature. Determining when “Implementation Day” happens is even more difficult, since it depends on the completion of a series of negotiations between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The timeline for those negotiations, however, is spelled out in a separate document: Discussions are to be complete by Oct. 15, 2015, and the IAEA director general will submit a final report to his board of governors by Dec. 15. Iran at this point will be rewarded. The European Union will end a large number sanctions; President Obama will issue waivers for a number of U.S. sanctions or rescind the executive orders that imposed them. Iranian banks will be allowed back into the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications system, or Swift, allowing Iran to reintegrate into the dollar economy and move money freely. The agreement also specifies that the EU will lift sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; the Quds Force and possibly its commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani; and a large number of other individuals and entities sanctioned not simply for their roles in the nuclear program but for terrorism and human-rights abuses. This sanctions relief will come by 2023 at the latest. The agreement does not appear to oblige the U.S. to lift sanctions on those people and entities. The survival of the international arms embargo against Iran, however, depends entirely on the U.N. Security Council resolution passed to implement this agreement. Nothing in the text of the agreement itself supports President Obama’s assertion that the embargo will last for another five years, although he may have that time frame in mind.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The current embargo was implemented by two resolutions: No. 1696 (2006) and No. 1929 (2010). The first bars the sale or transfer to Iran of any material or technology that might be useful to a ballistic-missile program, and the second does the same for “battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles, or missile systems.” A new resolution that simply terminates all of the previous sanctions would allow Russia and China to provide Iran with any military technology they choose. To preserve the embargo, the U.S. would need to add the appropriate language to the resolution that must be passed by the Security Council this summer. But that means getting agreement from the Russians, who have already said that the embargo should be ended immediately. The U.S. is not in a very strong position to engage the Russians on this point, since the Obama administration must get the resolution through the Security Council quickly or risk having the entire nuclear deal fall apart. Experts will debate the value of the concessions Iran has made on the nuclear front, but the value to Iran of the concessions the U.S. has made on nonnuclear issues is immeasurable. It is hard to imagine any other circumstance under which Tehran could have hoped to get an international, U.N. Security Council-backed commitment to remove the Republican Guard and Quds Force from any sanctions list, or to have the fate of the arms embargo placed in the hands of Vladimir Putin. It is still more remarkable that the agreement says nothing about Iran’s terrorist activities, human- rights violations or role in regional weapons proliferation—all of which were drivers of the embargo in the first place. Iran makes no commitment to change its terrorist or oppressive ways, but the international community promises to eliminate those sanctions anyway. Nor is there much mystery about what Iran will do with these concessions. Tehran has recently concluded an agreement giving Syria’s Bashar Assad a $1 billion line of credit. The Iranian regime has announced that it is preparing to take delivery of the Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile system. The supreme leader has released a five-year economic plan calling for a significant expansion of Iran’s ballistic-missile and cyberwar programs and an increase in Iran’s defense capabilities. The Obama administration seems to be betting that lifting sanctions will cause Iran to moderate its behavior in both nuclear and nonnuclear matters. The rhetoric and actions of the regime’s leaders provide little evidence to support this notion and much evidence to the contrary. The likelihood is, therefore, that this agreement will lead to a significant expansion in the capabilities of the Iranian military, including the Republican Guard and the Quds Force. It comes just as Iran is straining to keep Bashar Assad in power, dominate the portions of Iraq not controlled by Islamic State and help the Houthis fight Saudi Arabia in Yemen. That makes it a very good deal for Iran. Mr. Kagan is the director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-theyre-cheering-in-tehran-1436916912 Return to Top

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. OPINION/Feature The Iran Nuclear Agreement: Tehran "Achieved All It Wanted" "Iran will have little trouble cheating IAEA inspectors while it proceeds along its path of nuclear weapons development. After five years, it will have complete freedom to acquire arms of all sorts." By Dov S. Zakheim July 14, 2015 President Obama now has the deal he eagerly sought—so early, in fact, that he reportedly instructed his negotiators to bring home a deal no matter what. According to Mr. Obama, the so- called Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) “demonstrates that American diplomacy can bring about real and meaningful change—change that makes our country, and the world, safer and more secure.” Real and meaningful change will certainly be the result of this agreement. Unfortunately, the change will only be for the worse. Iran has achieved all that it wanted. As the Iranian publication Mehr News Agency has pointed out: – Iran will be recognized by the UN as a country with nuclear technology and entitled to rights of peaceful nuclear program including enrichment and full fuel cycle. – All economic and financial sanctions against Iran will be removed through a new Security Council resolution. – All nuclear facilities in Iran will retain their activities. Contrary to the initial demands of the other side, none of the nuclear sites will be shut down. – The policy to prevent Iran’s enrichment activities failed. Iran will continue nuclear enrichment. – Iran’s nuclear infrastructure will be preserved. No centrifuge will be [destroyed] and research and development on all advanced centrifuges including IR-4, IR-5, IR-6 and IR-8 will continue. – Arak heavy water reactor will remain as such. Any demands to return the facility to a light water reactor have been dismissed. The facility will be modernized and enjoy new additions through cooperating with owners of most advanced and secure world technologies. – Iran will enter global markets as a producer of nuclear products especially in the case of “enriched uranium” and “heavy water.” All sanctions and limitations against imports and exports of nuclear material will be annulled. – All economic and financial sanctions in the fields of banking, oil, gas, petrochemicals, insurance, and transportation as imposed by the EU and the US under the pretext of Iran’s nuclear program will be immediately lifted upon the implementation of the agreement. – Iran’s arms embargo will be lifted, replaced with some restrictions to be removed in 5 years. – Billions of Iran’s blocked revenues in foreign banks will be unfrozen. – A total of 800 individuals and legal entities, including the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), will be released from any sanctions. Virtually none of these outcomes was presaged when the United States first undertook to negotiate an agreement with Iran. Indeed, many of the elements now conceded to Tehran were considered to

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

be “deal breakers.” Yet these have proved to be no more effective than the administration’s “red lines” regarding the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons against the Syrian opposition. It is noteworthy that while the Iranian side has greeted the agreement with nothing short of elation, only the president, the secretary of state, and their immediate circle of advisors have evinced a similar reaction. Indeed, Mr. Obama has compared himself to John Kennedy, who sought to reach an arms agreement with the Soviet Union, as if Iran, with no nuclear weapons, was somehow a nuclear superpower as the USSR was when JFK first reached out to Moscow. In reality, America, with its allies in tow, has made concession after concession to an economically starved state whose delusions of grandeur will now be greater than ever. President Obama’s assurances notwithstanding, the Middle East (and indeed, the world) will now be far less stable. Iran will have little trouble cheating IAEA inspectors while it proceeds along its path of nuclear-weapons development. After five years, it will have complete freedom to acquire arms of all sorts. More ominously, Iran will now be flush with cash, with tens of billions of dollars accruing from both petroleum sales and the lifting of financial sanctions. No doubt Tehran will put that money to good use: increasing its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, Hafez Assad and the Houthi rebels; destabilizing , Saudi Arabia’s eastern province; and extending its terrorist reach worldwide. It remains to be seen whether the Congress can muster enough votes to override an inevitable presidential veto of any attempt to block the deal. In this regard, Prime Minister Netanyahu hardly helped his case at all. In seeking to muster support for Congressional opposition to any deal, he alienated a large number of Democrats by going behind the president’s back to address a joint session of the Congress. Now he needs those Democratic votes for an override, and he may not get them. Should an override fail, and the agreement come into force, the larger Sunni Arab states can be expected to seek their own nuclear-weapons capability, as Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has already indicated would be the case if the P5+1 capitulated to Tehran. The Gulf States, as well as Egypt, Jordan and , will no doubt also request additional American military equipment, financed by aid or sold outright. Israel will follow suit, except that Jerusalem, despite its ability to deter Iran, may yet attack that country’s nuclear facilities purely out of desperation and frustration with American policy. Should an override fail, and the agreement come into force, the larger Sunni Arab states can be expected to seek their own nuclear-weapons capability, as Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has already indicated would be the case if the P5+1 capitulated to Tehran. The Gulf States, as well as Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, will no doubt also request additional American military equipment, financed by aid or sold outright. Israel will follow suit, except that Jerusalem, despite its ability to deter Iran, may yet attack that country’s nuclear facilities purely out of desperation and frustration with American policy. It did not have to be this way. The P5+1 could have continued to negotiate, while retaining the interim agreement signed in November 2013. Tehran would have had to face ongoing sanctions, which, even if China and Russia evaded them, would have continued to stress the Iranian economy. The West could have held out for a better deal, for the choice was never between war and peace, as the president kept asserting, or between a bad deal or no deal, as Israel’s prime minister insisted. Now the die has been cast; only the Congress stands in the way of a rollback of two decades of

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama bipartisan efforts to contain the rogue state that to this day wishes to do harm to the country it continues to deride as “the Great Satan.” Dov S. Zakheim served as the undersecretary of defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the U.S. Department of Defense from 2001–2004 and as the deputy undersecretary of defense (planning and resources) from 1985-1987. He also served as DoD's civilian coordinator for Afghan reconstruction from 2002–2004. He is a member of The National Interest's advisory council. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-iran-nuclear-agreement-tehran-achieved-all-it-wanted- 13334 Return to Top

The Wall Street Journal – New York, NY OPINION/Commentary The Iranian Nuclear-Inspection Charade Iran is allowed ample time, up to 24 days, to hide or destroy evidence before inspectors are given access. By William Tobey July 15, 2015 In the months leading up to Tuesday’s announcement of a nuclear agreement with Iran, American proponents and skeptics of the deal at least agreed on one thing: the importance of “anywhere, anytime” inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities. On the skeptical side, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R., Calif.) said on June 30: “The standard needs to be ‘go anywhere, anytime’—not go ‘some places, sometimes.’ ” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that same day called for “complete agreement on ‘anytime, anywhere’ inspections.” On the Obama administration side, there was Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz in April saying, “We expect to have anywhere, anytime access.” And Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes also in April saying: “In the first place we will have anytime, anywhere access [to] nuclear facilities.” Yet in announcing the deal this week, President Obama said inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency “will have access where necessary, when necessary.” Note the distinction: Agreeing on what is “necessary” is going to be a preoccupation of the new inspections regime. No wonder Mr. Rhodes was on CNN on Wednesday denying that negotiators had ever sought anytime, anywhere inspections. Under the deal’s terms, when the IAEA demands access to a suspect site, Iran will have 14 days to fulfill the request or propose other means to satisfy it. If the matter remains unresolved, a joint commission with representatives from each of the eight parties to the agreement would have a further week to act, and Iran would then be given three days to comply. Thus, 24 days might elapse between a request for access by the IAEA and a requirement upon Iran to provide it—ample time for Iran to hide or destroy evidence. Many observers now are in despair over how far short the nuclear agreement falls of the “anywhere, anytime” standard. But the promise of what such unfettered access could accomplish

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

was always a chimera. Much more would be required for any attempt to monitor Iran’s nuclear program to be a success. Verifying Iran’s nuclear-safeguards obligations to the IAEA could never have been accomplished solely with anywhere, anytime inspections. Iran is too vast and its government too practiced at denying information and deceiving inspectors for such an Easter egg hunt to succeed. For inspections to be meaningful, Iran would have to completely and correctly declare all its relevant nuclear activities and procurement, past and present. Veteran CIA nuclear-verification expert John Lauder recently told me that data declarations are “most important because they help set the stage for all other measures.” As former IAEA chief inspector Olli Heinonen told the New York Times last year: “You don’t need to see every nut and bolt, but you are taking a heck of a risk if you don’t establish a baseline of how far they went.” Tehran should already have made a full declaration under its obligations that predated the Tuesday accord, but the IAEA has found that Iran repeatedly failed to do so. Moreover, the agency as far back as November 2011 identified 12 areas of Iranian activities that could only be explained by nuclear- weapons development, calling them the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear program. Despite repeated IAEA efforts to investigate these matters, and Iranian promises to cooperate, Tehran blocked meaningful progress. Now the new agreement calls again on Iran to cooperate, but it offers no reason to believe that the Iranian regime will end its recalcitrance. For inspectors to do their job, they require access to supporting records and knowledgeable individuals. They would need to examine invoices, lab notes, personnel files, organization charts, production inventories, building plans and other documents supporting the declaration—assuming one is ever provided—and to discuss the material with scientists and program managers. As former United Nations and U.S. weapons inspector David Kay recently explained to me: “Unfettered access to people and documents is required to tell inspectors what to look for and where to go.” From there, the inspectors—in a genuine nuclear-inspections program—would construct a comprehensive mosaic of Iran’s nuclear programs, overt and covert. Tile by tile, they would pursue missing pieces, and flag false or inconsistent ones for closer scrutiny. This would have to proceed until the IAEA concluded that it has a complete and correct declaration covering all nuclear-related activities. The IAEA needs to probe gaps and inconsistencies, which are often more difficult to hide than covert enrichment facilities. The anywhere, anytime inspections ideal is also misleading because, as a practical matter, such inspections would be impossible in Iran. The regime will always have the power to deny inspectors access to a suspect site. Inspectors are few; minders are many, and backed by an army. If the IAEA requested admittance to a site where covert weapons work had been conducted, Tehran would simply find an excuse to deny it—as has apparently occurred at Parchin, where past inspection requests yielded only elaborate cleanup efforts. A successful Iran nuclear agreement would have required far more than anywhere, anytime inspections, let alone the delayed, managed access with a 24-day duration provided under the Iran

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama nuclear deal that President Obama hailed on Tuesday. What was essential is now conspicuously missing: Tehran’s submission of a complete and correct nuclear declaration, and the regime’s cooperation with IAEA efforts to verify it. Anything short of that is an illusion. Mr. Tobey, a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School, is a former deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration. http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-iranian-nuclear-inspection-charade-1437001048 Return to Top ABOUT THE USAF CUWS The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation . The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security, major combat operations, irregular warfare, stability operations, and homeland security). The term “unconventional weapons,” currently defined as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, also includes the improvised use of chemical, biological, and radiological hazards. The CUWS's military insignia displays the symbols of nuclear, biological, and chemical hazards. The arrows above the hazards represent the four aspects of counterproliferation - counterforce, active defense, passive defense, and consequence management.

Issue No.1174, 17 July 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226