Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – ECHO Daily Map | 06/03/2017 - Tropical Cyclone ENAWO

SITUATION

• TC ENAWO continued moving west south- west over the south-western Indian Ocean and towards north-eastern Madagascar, strengthening. On 6 March at 06.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 400 km north-east of Ambohitralanana ( Province), and it had a max. sustained wind speed of 167 km/h. • Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to continue moving west south-west towards the north-eastern coast of Madagascar, strengthening. • It may make landfall close to 06 Mar, 06.00 UTC Ambohitralanana (Antsiranana province) 167 km/h sust. winds on 7 March morning (UTC) as an intense Tropical Cyclone, with maximum 06 Mar, 18.00 UTC sustained winds of 165-185 km/h. Heavy 185 km/h sust. winds rain, storm surge and strong winds may affect the north-eastern and central- eastern areas of the country, especially Helodrano 07 Mar, 06.00 UTC Antongila Bay the regions of Sava and Analanjirofo, and 167 km/h sust. winds the area of Toamasina. Current JRC estimations indicate a maximum storm Indian Ocean surge height of 1 m along the coast of 07 Mar, 18.00 UTC Helodrano Antongila Bay (Toamasina 130 km/h sust. winds Province) on 7 March at 13.00 UTC.

Sources: GDACS, JTWC, Meteo Madagascar, Météo 08 Mar, 06.00 UTC France La Réunion, Local media 83 km/h sust. winds Tropical Cyclones in Madagascar Forecast: Acc. Rainfall 06-11 Mar 2008-2017 (Source: NOAA-HWRF) L egen d (Source: GDACS)

Cy clon es T rack p oin ts Indian Ocean Indian Ocean W IND_ SPEED INTENSITY WIND BUFFER 1 Ï Tropical0.000000 Depression - 17.000000 64-92 km/h Tropical Storm 93-120 km/h 17.000001 - 32.500000 Ï >120 km/h Tropical Cyclone Ï 32.500001 - 69.000000STORM SURGE Area of track (JRC Calculations) uncertainty 09 Mar, 06.00 UTC < 1 m Areas potentially 65 km/h sust. winds 69.000001 - 100.000000 1-1.2 m Ï most affected 26 Pop. Density Pop/km2

100 - 500 2 500 - 5 000 500 - 2 500 5 000 - 130 000 35 2 POPULATION (2014, Source: INSTAT Madagascar)

Sava Region 1 007 399 mm 50-100 Analanjirofo Region 1 063 197 100-250 5 250-500 500-750 750-1000