Impact Forecasting

July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap –

Impact Forecasting

August 3, 2010

port Document Title

Sub-Title of Report Document

Date

Proprietary & Confidential

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 2

United States 3

Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Caribbean Islands) 4

South America 5

Europe 5

Africa 6

Asia 6

Oceania (Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand, Micronesia, Guam,

Northern Mariana Islands) 8

APPENDIX 9

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 1

Executive Summary . Worst flooding in decades continues across China as YTD flood economic losses top USD26 billion . Massive floods in Pakistan leave at least 1,500 people dead . Extended heat wave and drought affect Europe as wildfires and agricultural losses impact Russia

July natural catastrophe experience was dominated by a series of global flood events which caused huge amounts of destruction, and for which relief efforts are still ongoing. Some of the most widespread flooding was experienced in Asia, where in China, at least 475 people died in southern, central and western regions primarily due to overflow from the Yangtze River and flash flooding. Total economic losses were forecast to be approximately CNY84.8bn (USD12.5bn), with at least 650,000 homes damaged or destroyed and more than four million hectares of farmland affected. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, monsoonal rain resulted in flash flooding and landslides, killing at least 1,500 people in the country’s worst flooding since 1929. At least an estimated 250,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, and economic losses are expected to be in the region of hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars.

In India, monsoonal rains killed 53 people in Assam state and more than 400,000 were evacuated from Kerala state, with total economic losses across the two regions estimated at INR20bn (USD428m). Further heavy rain towards the end of the month killed six people and caused widespread damage in northern states, while in Afghanistan, 65 people were killed and around 1,000 homes washed away following a period of extreme rain. Typhoon strikes in the , , and China, led to more than 100 deaths, large scale evacuation, and significant destruction due to high winds and torrential rain.

In the U.S., heavy rains proceeded after Hurricane Alex from July 1-10, which led to the evacuation of 2,000 structures along the Rio Grande in Texas. Meanwhile, a flash flood event in Boston led to economic losses of more than USD10m, and severe thunderstorms between July 10-18 in the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and New England resulted in two deaths and caused economic damage in the tens of millions of U.S. dollars. Further severe weather in Iowa caused the near failure of the Lake Delhi dam, resulting in the destruction of nearly 2,000 structures.

Elsewhere, the country suffered a heat wave in the Midwest, New England and Mid-Atlantic states, which killed at least ten people. Wildfires broke our across Southern California, forcing 2,300 people to evacuate, while a moderate magnitude-5.4 earthquake hit the region on the 7th, but neither injuries nor major damage were reported.

In Mexico, flash floods damaged or destroyed at least 100,000 between July 1-10, with five deaths and many injuries. Total economic loss was estimated at MXN1.3bn (USD100m), with an insured loss of around MXN255m (USD20m). In South America, a cold snap killed at least 522 people across seven countries, while landslides and flooding caused 60 deaths and injured 122 people in Colombia, with widespread damage in 27 of 32 provinces, and economic losses of COP71.3bn (USD38.4m).

Meanwhile, in Europe, extreme heat resulted in drought in Russia, destroying crops and causing EUR700m (USD970m) in losses. At least 2,250 people died in Europe during the heat wave, primarily due to drowning while trying to escape the hear. The extreme conditions sparked wildfires in European areas of Russia, killing at least 40 people and injuring hundreds more, and destroying nearly 2,210 homes. Initial damages from the event were listed at RUB6.5bn (USD210m).

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 2

United States # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 7/1-7/10 Flooding Texas 0 2,000+ 40+ million 7/4-7/7 Heat Wave Northeast, Midwest, Southeast 10+ Unknown Unknown 7/7 Earthquake Southern California 0 Dozens+ Unknown 7/10 Flooding Massachusetts 0 1,000+ 10+ million Plains, Midwest, Southeast, 7/10-7/16 Severe Weather 0 Hundreds+ Millions+ New England Plains, Midwest, Southeast, 7/17-7/18 Severe Weather 2+ 4,000+ Millions+ New England Plains, Midwest, Southeast, 7/20-7/25 Severe Weather 7+ Thousands+ 28+ million New England 7/26 Severe Weather Montana 2+ Dozens+ Unknown 7/26-7/31 Wildfires Southern California 0 43+ Unknown

Heavy rains following in the heels of Hurricane Alex and additional precipitation from Tropical Depression Two caused flooding along the Texas/Mexico border between the 1st and the 10th. The rains caused the Rio Grande to swell and prompt evacuations from Laredo to Brownsville. In Laredo, Texas, two bridges were forced to close and miles of roads were submerged along with large swaths of agriculture. At least 2,000 homes, businesses and structures along the Rio Grande sustained damage as early damage estimates were listed at USD40 million (primarily in Lubbock, Starr and Hidalgo counties). Four consecutive days of record setting temperatures gripped the U.S. between the 4th and the 7th, as at least ten people died due to extreme heat across parts of the Midwest, New England and the Mid-Atlantic States. According to local National Weather Service offices, temperatures regularly approached and exceeded 100°F (37.7°C) which prompted heat advisories in cities such as New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Charlotte. A moderate earthquake rattled Southern California on the 7th, with no injuries or fatalities reported. The magnitude-5.4 tremor struck at 4:53 PM local time (23:53 UTC) with an epicenter 15 miles (20 kilometers) north-northwest of Borrego Springs, California at a depth of 8.7 miles (14 kilometers). The temblor was felt in San Diego and Los Angeles, though no major damage occurred. In Borrego Springs and nearby Palm Springs, the earthquake mostly caused indoor contents to fall off of shelves and the only structural damages were very minor with minimal cracks in facades. A sudden torrential rainstorm on the 10th pelted the greater Boston metropolitan area. According to the local National Weather Service office, heavy rain fell on a region that had seen little rain in recent weeks which caused rapid run-off. Floodwaters of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) were reported in tunnels and low overpasses, which led to vehicle, home and electrical substation damage. Total economic losses from the flood event were listed at over USD10 million. Severe thunderstorms affected the Plains, Midwest, Southeast and New England along three separate slow moving frontal boundaries between the 10th and the 16th. No fatalities were reported, though several storm related injuries did occur. Damage from the storm systems was spread out across the eastern half of the U.S. as most of the thunderstorms were aided by an unstable atmosphere due to extremely warm daytime temperatures and moist dewpoints. The severe weather spawned hundreds of reports of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds with some of the hardest hit areas in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. At least ten tornadoes touched down with widespread damage being reported with downed trees, ripped off roofs and lost electricity. Total economic losses from the weeklong series of severe weather across the eastern U.S. will likely enter the tens of millions of dollars (USD).

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 3

Multiple rounds of severe weather impacted much of the eastern two-thirds of the United States between the 17th and the 18th as several areas of low pressure developed along a meandering frontal boundary. Tornadoes, flooding, damaging winds and large hail all affected parts of the Plains, Midwest, Southeast and New England with damage reported in each region. At least two people were killed. On the 17th, inclement weather occurred in the Midwest and the Plains as large hail (up to softball-sized) and high winds affected parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Also on the 17th, torrential rainfall along the front in Kentucky caused significant damage in Pike County. On the 18th, additional severe weather brought damage to parts of Minnesota. Between the 20th and the 25th severe weather occurred from the Rockies to New England. On the 22nd, heavy rains brought significant floods to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and caused over USD28 million in damages. By the 23rd, clusters of powerful thunderstorms crossed Chicago, Illinois and brought record rains and high winds which led to widespread river and flash flood damage. On the 24th the focus shifted to northeast Iowa as excessive rainfall led to the rapid rise of the Maquoketa River. The quick rise and record crest caused a near total failure of the Lake Delhi dam with nearly 2,000 homes, businesses and a sewage treatment plant being damaged or destroyed in the town of Monticello. By the 25th, the severe weather shifted into the Mid-Atlantic States and New England. In Bronx County, New York, a tornado struck the Riverdale area while additional storms further south in the greater Washington, D.C. metropolitan region led to widespread structural damage and significant power outages. At least five people were killed due to the storms.

A rare tornado touched down in extreme northeastern Montana on the 26th. The twister destroyed several farms in Sheridan County and killed at least two people. Several wildfires broke out across Southern California between the 26th and the 31st – including two in Kern County and one in Los Angeles County. The most damaging wildfire began on the 27th in the Old West Ranch community. The blaze destroyed at least 30 homes as over 2,300 people were forced to evacuate. The second fire in Kern County, the Bull Fire, was ignited on the 26th in Sequoia National Forest. The blaze destroyed 14 homes and structures in the Kernville area before being contained. On the 29th and 30th, a wildfire in LA County destroyed at least five homes and structures.

Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Caribbean Islands) # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2, 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 4 Claims (USD) 7/1-7/10 Flooding Mexico 5+ 100,000+ 100+ million

The combination of flash floods and river flooding in Mexico from remnant moisture from Hurricane Alex and Tropical Depression Two led to the had damaged or destroyed at least 100,000 homes between the 1st and the 10th. The damage, which was particularly seen in the states of Coahuila and Nuevo Leon, came in addition to at least five fatalities and dozens of injures. Tens of thousands of residents were forced to evacuate from their homes in the Rio Grande Valley as waters swelled to their highest levels since 1974. Total economic damages were estimated at over MXN1.3 billion (USD100 million), with insured losses approaching MXN255 million (USD20 million).

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 4

South America # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2, 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 4 Claims (USD) Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, 7/17-7/24 Winter Weather 522+ Unknown Unknown Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile 7/26 Flooding Colombia 60+ 75,000+ 38.4+ million

A strong cold front passed through much of South America’s ‘Southern Cone’ and brought Antarctic air between the 17th and the 24th, leading to the deaths of at least 522 people across seven countries. According to government reports, at least a combined 522 people died (including 409 in Peru alone) due to hypothermia, pneumonia and from carbon monoxide poisoning. Thousands of livestock also died during the event and an agriculture emergency was declared in Chile. Landslides and floods during the month of July left at least 60 people dead and 122 injured in Colombia. The government announced on the 26th that 27 of the country’s 32 provinces had sustained damage – with approximately 75,000 homes being affected. Economic losses were listed at COP71.3 billion (USD38.4 million).

Europe # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2, 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 4 Claims (USD) 6/15-7/31 Heat Wave Northern, Central, Eastern Europe 2,250+ Unknown 970+ million 7/1-7/31 Wildfires Russia 40+ 2,210+ 1+ billion

A prolonged heatwave and drought (which began in mid-June) gripped much of Europe as record high temperatures reaching the mid-30s C (mid-90s F) occurred throughout July. The extended heat wave enhanced extreme drought conditions in Russia (where 10 million hectares (25 million acres) of crops were destroyed totaling EUR700 million (USD970 million) in losses) and in the Czech Republic. A major highway connecting Prague and Germany was closed due to heat related damage to the asphalt, while the Vodochody International Airport was temporarily closed due to runway damage. High speed railway systems were also forced to shutdown due to failures from the heat. On July 29th, Moscow set an all-time record high temperature at 37.8°C (100°F). At least 2,250 people died (mostly in Russia) in Europe primarily due to drowning while seeking relief from the heat. Hundreds of wildfires and peat bog fires burned over much of European sections of Russia during the month of July. According to government officials, fires had left at least 40 people dead and 439 injured. A fire on Moscow’s western fringe forced thousands of evacuations as heavy smoke from the peat bog fire covered the downtown area. Russian news agencies reported that the fires had destroyed nearly 2,210 homes, with the hardest hit areas in the Moscow, Voronezh and Nizhny Novgorod regions as well as the Volga Federal District. Based on reports from Russian officials, at least RUB30 billion (USD1 billion) had been spent or requested to fight the fires and re-build destroyed areas. Initial damage losses were listed at RUB6.5 billion (USD210 million).

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 5

Africa # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2, 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 4 Claims (USD) 7/16-7/27 Flooding Sudan 18+ 2,133+ Unknown

Heavy rains between the16th and the 27th led to the deaths of at least 18 people in Sudan. According to the United Nations, at least 2,133 homes were destroyed across northern, western and eastern sections of the country.

Asia # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2, 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 4 Claims (USD) 7/1-7/31 Flooding China 475+ 650,000+ 12.5+ billion 7/6-7/8 Flooding India 53+ 28,000+ 428+ million 7/10-7/16 Flooding Japan 9+ Hundreds+ 3.5+ million 7/13-7/17 TY Conson Philippines, China, Vietnam 107+ 47,837+ 82+ million 7/19-7/25 Heat Wave Japan 57+ Unknown Unknown 7/20 Earthquake Iran 1+ 500+ Unknown 7/21-7/29 Flooding Pakistan 1,500+ 250,000+ 200+ million 7/22 TY Chanthu Philippines, China 2+ 2,915+ 355+ million 7/23-7/25 Flooding Indonesia 21+ 3,000+ Unknown 7/24 Flooding India 6+ Hundreds+ Unknown 7/28 Flooding Afghanistan 65+ 1,000+ Unknown 7/30-7/31 Earthquake Iran 0 700+ Unknown

Fresh rounds of heavy rains returned to several sections of China between the 1st and the 31st. The rains left at least 475 people dead in southern, central and western sections of the country as points along the Yangtze River overflowed and other flash floods raged and triggered landslides. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the floods caused catastrophic damage as at least 650,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in over a dozen separate provinces during the month. Over four million hectares (9.8 million acres) of farmland were also affected. Total economic losses were estimated at CNY84.8 billion (USD12.5 billion). Torrential monsoonal rains killed at least 53 people in northeastern Assam state and the southwestern Kerala state in India between the 6th and the 8th. In Kerala, at least 23,000 homes were damaged as over 400,000 people were evacuated. Officials in the mountainous Assam region reported that 13 of 27 districts had sustained significant flooding and that over 5,000 homes were damaged. Several large farming companies reported that up to 80 percent of their crops had been destroyed. Total economic losses from Kerala and Assam were estimated at INR20 billion (USD428 million). Heavy rains in central, western and southern Japan led to the deaths of at least nine people between the 10th and the 16th. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, over 200 millimeters (eight inches) fell across parts of northern Kyushu and southern Honshu islands which forced at least 170,000 people to evacuate their homes. Reports from Japan indicated that both floodwaters and landslides led to damage to hundreds of homes, businesses and vehicles. Widespread damage to farmlands was also reported. Economic losses were listed at JPY300 million (USD3.5 million).

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 6

Typhoon Conson became the first landfalling cyclone of the 2010 West Pacific Hurricane Season, after making landfall in the Philippines and Vietnam while also skirting China. Conson officially made landfall late on the 13th in southern province in the Philippines with 120 kph (75 mph) winds. According to the Philippines’ National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), Conson’s high winds and torrential rains led to the deaths of at least 104 people. The cyclone damaged or destroyed at least 46,650 homes, along with wide swaths of the transportation and agricultural infrastructures. Economic losses were estimated at PHP378 million (USD8.1 million). Conson skirted southern China’s Island on the 16th, battering 68 towns, destroying at least 544 homes and killing two people. Economic losses in China were listed at CNY500 million (USD73.8 million). The cyclone made a final landfall in northern Vietnam just south of on the 17th, killing at least one person and damaging over 643 homes and other structures. A week of extreme heat engulfed much of Japan between the 19th and the 25th, leaving at least 57 people dead and nearly 10,000 hospitalized. According to Japanese meteorologists, temperatures reached at least 35°C (95°F) in more than 90 percent of countrywide observation points. An earthquake struck southern sections of Iran on the 20th, leaving at least one person dead and dozens more injured. The magnitude-5.8 tremor struck at 11:08 PM local time (19:38 UTC) with an epicenter approximately 90 kilometers (55 miles) south-southwest of Lar, Iran. Following the main temblor, there were at least 11 aftershocks (including one with a magnitude-5.2). According to reports from Iran’s state-run media, the majority of the damage was confined to Fars Province in the town of Lamerd as 50 to 70 percent of all residences had been destroyed in four separate villages. Monsoonal rains in Pakistan led to flash flooding and landslides between the 21st and the 29th, killing at least 1,500 people – though authorities fear the death toll may reach 3,000. In what was described as Pakistan’s worst flooding since 1929, heavy rains pummeled Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa, Punjab and Baluchistan provinces – which caused the Swat River to burst its banks. At least 2.5 million people have been forced from their homes ( roughly ten per household based on people per household statistics from the Pakistani government); at least an estimated 250,000 homes were damaged or destroyed along with substantial impacts to the transportation and agricultural infrastructures. Economic losses were projected to be in the billions of Pakistani rupees (hundreds of millions USD). Typhoon Chanthu made landfall in China’s Province on the 22nd after first developing over the Philippines. Chanthu was responsible for the deaths of at least two people and the displacement of 1.36 million throughout southern China. At least 2,915 homes were destroyed due to the high winds and total estimated economic losses were CNY2.4 billion (USD355 million). Landslides and floods killed at least 21 people in the Indonesian provinces of Maluku and South Kalimantan between the 23rd and the 25th. At least 3,000 homes were destroyed. Monsoonal rains on the 24th in northern India led to six fatalities and widespread damage to the agricultural and transportation infrastructures. At least 65 people were killed in Afghanistan’s Kapisa and Laghman provinces on the 28th as nearly 1,000 homes were washed away. Crops were also severely damaged in the region. Two earthquakes struck Iran on the 30th and the 31st with magnitudes 5.6 and 5.3. The first tremor struck at 5:20 PM local time (13:50 UTC) with an epicenter near Torbat-Heydarieh. The second temblor struck on the 31st at 10:22 AM local time (6:52 UTC) with an epicenter 95 kilometers (60 miles) south-southwest of Kerman. The earthquakes reportedly flattened at least 700 mud and brick homes in several rural villages and caused widespread communication disruptions. More than 275 people sustained injuries.

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 7

Oceania (Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand, Micronesia, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands) # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2, 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 4 Claims (USD)

There were no major natural disaster events in Oceania during the month of July.

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 8

APPENDIX Updated Jan. 2010 – June 2010 Data

United States # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) Southeast, Plains, 1/2-1/13 Winter Weather 25+ 25,000+ 1.38+ billion Midwest, Northeast 1/9 Earthquake Northern California 0 463+ 43+ million California, Arizona, 1/17-1/22 Severe Weather 10+ 50,000+ 150+ million Pacific Northwest Southeast, Tennessee 1/20-1/24 Severe Weather 1+ 500+ Unknown Valley Plains, Southeast, Mid- 1/27-1/30 Winter Weather 13+ 1,000+ Millions+ Atlantic 2/4-2/6 Winter Weather Mid-Atlantic, Northeast 15+ 35,000+ 300+ million 2/6 Flooding California 0 43+ 31+ million Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, 2/9-2/11 Winter Weather 6+ 150,000+ 1.5+ billion Northeast 2/10 Earthquake Illinois 0 Unknown Unknown 2/10-2/11 Winter Weather Southeast 0 Unknown Unknown Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, 2/23-2/28 Winter Weather 10+ 93,000+ 500+ million Midwest 3/8 Severe Weather Plains 0 Dozens+ Unknown 3/10-3/12 Severe Weather Plains, Southeast 1+ Hundreds+ Unknown Northeast, Mid-Atlantic 3/13-3/15 Flooding 11+ 175,000+ 1.5+ billion States 3/13-3/22 Flooding Northern Plains 0 Unknown Unknown 3/28-3/29 Severe Weather Southeast 0 2,368+ 4.4+ million 3/28-3/30 Flooding Northeast 0 45,000+ 350+ million 4/4 Earthquake California 0 Unknown 91+ million Plains, Midwest, 4/4-4/7 Severe Weather 0 60,000+ 450+ million Northeast Mississippi Valley, 4/22-4/25 Severe Weather 12+ 32,000+ 500+ million Southeast 4/20-7/31 Oil Spill Gulf of Mexico 0 Unknown Billions+ Mississippi Valley, 4/30-5/3 Severe Weather Tennessee Valley, 32+ 75,000+ 3+ billion Southeast 5/7-5/8 Severe Weather Ohio Valley, Northeast 0 17,500+ 200+ million 5/10 Severe Weather Oklahoma, Kansas 5+ 87,500+ 1+ billion

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 9

# of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) Plains, Midwest, 5/12-5/16 Severe Weather Northeast, Tennessee 0 195,000+ 1.5+ billion Valley Plains, Midwest, 5/22-5/26 Severe Weather 0 50,000+ 225+ million Northeast 6/1-6/3 Severe Weather Northern Plains 0 25,000+ 250+ million Midwest, Ohio Valley, 6/4-6/6 Severe Weather 7+ 20,000+ 250+ million Northeast 6/6-6/9 Flooding Utah 0 50+ 1+ million 6/8-6/9 Flooding Texas 1+ 100+ Unknown Plains, Midwest, 6/10-6/16 Severe Weather 0 90,000+ 500+ million Southeast 6/10-6/11 Flooding Arkansas 20+ Unknown Unknown Thousands 6/13-6/14 Flooding Oklahoma 1+ Millions+ + 6/14 Earthquake Southern California 0 50+ Unknown 6/17-6/20 Severe Weather Midwest 5+ 65,000+ 500+ million Midwest, Plains, 6/21-6/24 Severe Weather 0 55,000+ 500+ million Northeast Midwest, Plains, 6/25-6/28 Severe Weather 1+ 40,000+ 225+ million Northeast 6/30-7/1 Severe Weather Montana 0 20,000+ 175+ million

Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Caribbean Islands) # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 1/2 Winter Weather Canada 3+ Unknown Unknown 1/12 Earthquake Haiti 220,000+ 350,000+ 8+ billion 1/18-1/22 Flooding Mexico 3+ 800+ 5+ million 2/4-2/10 Flooding Mexico 43+ 6,500+ 15+ million 2/5 Winter Weather Canada 0 Dozens+ 80,000+ 2/25-2/26 Winter Weather Canada 0 Unknown Unknown 3/29 Severe Weather Bahamas 3+ Dozens+ Unknown 4/4 Earthquake Baja California 2+ 5,000+ 1+ billion 5/16 Earthquake Puerto Rico 0 Dozens+ Unknown 5/26-5/31 Volcano Guatemala 3+ Unknown Unknown 5/28-5/31 Volcano Ecuador 0 Unknown Unknown Guatemala, Honduras, 5/29-5/30 TS Agatha 205+ 110,000+ 532+ million El Salvador 6/17 Severe Weather Canada 0 500+ 64+ million 6/23 Severe Weather Canada 0 400+ 25+ million

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 10

# of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 6/23 Earthquake Canada 0 Hundreds+ 16.3+ million 6/26-6/30 HU Alex Mexico, Belize 51+ 50,000+ 1.3+ billion 6/30 Earthquake Mexico 1+ 100+ Unknown

South America # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 1/1-1/7 Flooding Brazil 201+ 10,000+ 145+ million 1/21-1/27 Flooding Peru, Bolivia 30+ 35,312+ 300+ million 2/5-2/8 Flooding Bolivia 15+ 36,163+ 138,000+ 2/8-2/9 Flooding Uruguay 0 Unknown Unknown 2/11 Flooding Peru 0 20,150+ Unknown 2/17 Flooding Argentina 0 Hundreds+ Unknown 2/27 Earthquake Chile 500+ 1.5+ million 30+ billion 3/1-3/5 Flooding Bolivia 16+ 46,200+ 2.5+ million 4/1-4/2 Flooding Peru 28+ 120+ Unknown 4/5-4/7 Flooding Brazil 256+ 25,000+ 13.1+ billion 4/19-4/20 Severe Weather Nicaragua, Ecuador 1+ 411+ Unknown 6/17-6/21 Flooding Brazil 72+ 50,000+ 860+ million

Europe # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) UK, Central Europe, 1/1-1/31 Winter Weather 276+ 1,100+ 4.63+ billion Northern Europe 1/1-1/15 Flooding Albania, Bosnia, Croatia 0 2,489+ 8+ million 2/1-2/2 Flooding Canary Islands 1+ Hundreds+ Unknown 2/1-2/12 Winter Weather Austria 15+ Unknown Unknown 2/13-2/17 Flooding Southern Europe 4+ Hundreds+ 9.6+ million 2/20 Flooding Madeira 43+ 560+ 1.89+ billion 2/23-2/24 Flooding Spain 2+ 400+ Unknown Windstorm France, Portugal, Spain, 2/27-2/28 62+ 5,000+ 4.5+ billion Xynthia Belgium, Germany 3/30-3/31 Winter Weather United Kingdom 1+ Unknown Unknown Central and Northern 4/15-4/26 Volcano 0 Unknown 2.8+ billion Europe

Impact Forecasting | July 2010 Monthly Cat Recap | Proprietary & Confidential 11

# of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 5/12-5/28 Flooding Central Europe 22+ 100,000+ 3.7+ billion 5/24 Severe Weather Germany 1+ Dozens+ Unknown 6/2-6/10 Flooding Central Europe 4+ 25,000+ 1.5+ billion 6/5-6/9 Flooding France, Spain 27+ 45,000+ 1+ billion 6/19-6/21 Flooding Bosnia 0 4,000+ 1.5+ million 6/22-6/30 Flooding Romania, Ukraine 22+ 3,200+ Millions+

Africa # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 1/1-1/15 Flooding Kenya 35+ 30,000+ 57+ million 1/17-1/18 Flooding Egypt 15+ 1,856+ 36.2+ million 2/16 Flooding South Africa 4+ Hundreds+ 5.3+ million 2/22 Flooding Zambia 9+ 1,000+ Unknown 3/2 Flooding Uganda 86+ Hundreds+ 1+ million Kenya, Mozambique, 3/6-3/12 Flooding 20+ 10,000+ Unknown Uganda, Zimbabwe 3/10 TS Hubert Madagascar 83+ 7,000+ Unknown 5/7 Winter Weather South Africa 6+ 10+ Unknown 6/20 Flooding Ghana 35+ 17,458+ Unknown

Asia # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 1/1-5/1 Drought China 0 Unknown 3.5+ billion 1/2 Earthquake Tajikistan 0 1,098+ 1.5+ million China, South Korea, 1/2-1/12 Winter Weather 43+ 100,000+ 29+ million India 1/3-1/9 Earthquake Solomon Islands 0 1,857+ Unknown 1/4 Landslide Pakistan 19+ 332+ 50,000+ 1/9 Flooding Indonesia 3+ 5,713+ Unknown 1/17-1/18 Flooding Israel, Jordan 2+ 163+ Millions+ 1/17-1/23 Winter Weather China 21+ 38,000+ 96+ million 1/21 Flooding Indonesia 8+ 2,000+ Unknown 1/31 Earthquake China 1+ 4,910+ 4.4+ million 2/5 Winter Weather Iran 8+ 10+ Unknown 2/8-2/11 Winter Weather India 21+ Unknown Unknown 2/9 Winter Weather Afghanistan 204+ 3,800+ Unknown

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# of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) 2/13-2/19 Flooding Indonesia 0 2,469+ 215+ million 2/18 Winter Weather Pakistan 116+ 652+ Unknown 2/25 Winter Weather China 7+ Unknown Unknown 2/25 Earthquake China 0 3,172+ 882,000+ 2/28-3/1 Winter Weather China 0 5,883+ 274+ million 3/4 Earthquake Taiwan 0 1,000+ 10.3+ million 3/8 Earthquake Turkey 41+ Hundreds+ Unknown 3/11-3/13 Flooding Kazakhstan 41+ 2,000+ 127,000+ 3/27-3/28 Winter Weather China 0 12,649+ 530,000+ 3/28-3/31 Severe Weather India 7+ 16,000+ Unknown 4/6 Earthquake Indonesia 0 1,005+ Unknown 4/13 Severe Weather India, Bangladesh 137+ 300,000+ 30+ million 4/14 Earthquake China 2,698+ 61,000+ 4.7+ billion 4/14-4/19 Heatwave India 107+ Unknown Unknown 4/17-4/26 Flooding China 1+ 4,600+ 65+ million 4/18-4/19 Severe Weather India 1+ 980+ Unknown 4/19 Earthquake Afghanistan 11+ 300+ Unknown 4/19-4/22 Flooding China 2+ 1,275+ 10+ million 4/21 Severe Weather India 4+ 2,000+ Unknown 4/24-4/26 Sandstorm China 7+ 21,369+ 117+ million 3/15-5/3 Flooding China 0 8,321+ Unknown 5/1-5/2 Severe Weather Bangladesh 23+ 1,000+ Unknown 5/5-5/10 Flooding Tajikistan 40+ 4,500+ 5.3+ million 5/5-5/24 Flooding China 115+ 95,000+ 2.23+ billion 5/6 Severe Weather China 36+ 10,980+ 17.7+ million 5/7 Severe Weather India 54+ Hundreds+ Unknown 5/14-5/16 Severe Weather China 7+ 2,365+ Unknown 5/15-5/18 Severe Weather Sri Lanka 20+ 1,270+ 100+ million 5/16-5/20 Severe Weather India 13+ 1,000+ Unknown 5/20 CY Laila India 36+ 23,000+ 106+ million 5/30-6/3 Flooding China 53+ 11,000+ 176+ million 6/4-6/5 CY Phet Oman, Pakistan 39+ 20,000+ 857+ million 6/13-6/30 Flooding China 381+ 879,000+ 12.3+ billion 6/14-6/16 Flooding Myanmar, Bangladesh 121+ 20,000+ Unknown 6/16 Earthquakes Indonesia 17+ 3,922+ Unknown 6/16 Flooding Singapore 0 Dozens+ 22+ million 6/28 Landslide China 99+ 1,000+ Unknown

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Oceania (Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand, Micronesia, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands) # of Damage Event Event Name Event # of 2,4 1 2 Structures/ Estimates Date Or Type Location Deaths 2,3 Claims (USD) New South Wales, 1/1-1/15 Flooding 2+ Unknown 3.2+ million Queensland 1/22 CY Magda Western Australia 0 Unknown Unknown 1/24-1/30 CY Olga Queensland 0 Unknown Unknown 2/4-2/5 CY Oli French Polynesia 1+ 1,000+ 70+ million New South Wales, 2/5-2/7 Flooding 5+ 3,000+ Unknown Queensland 2/11 CY Pat Cook Islands 0 504+ 10+ million 2/12-2/15 Flooding New South Wales 2+ 1,538+ 16+ million 2/14 CY Rene Tonga 1+ 263+ Unknown 3/1-3/3 Flooding Queensland 0 7,500+ 123+ million 3/6 Severe Weather Victoria 0 105,000+ 1.25+ billion 3/13-3/16 TC Tomas Fiji 2+ 4,000+ 33+ million Solomon Islands, 3/15-3/21 TC Ului 0 812+ 18+ million Queensland 3/22 Severe Weather Western Australia 0 143,000+ 1.25+ billion 4/20 Earthquake Western Australia 0 100+ 4.6+ million 6/3-6/4 Severe Weather New South Wales 0 392+ 1.04+ million

1 TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone

2 As reported by public news media sources

3 Structures defined as any building – including barns, outbuildings, mobile homes, single or multiple family dwellings, and commercial facilities – that is damaged or destroyed by winds, earthquakes, hail, flood, tornadoes, hurricanes or any other natural-occurring phenomenon. Claims defined as the number of claims (which could be a combination of homeowners, commercial, auto and others) reported by various insurance companies through press releases or various public media outlets.

4 Damage estimates obtained from various public media sources, including news websites, publications from insurance companies and financial institution press releases. These estimates can include insured or economic losses.

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About Impact Forecasting® LLC: Impact Forecasting® LLC is a catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield whose seismologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting’s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers. Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe model development firm integrated into a reinsurance intermediary. To find out more about Impact Forecasting® LLC, visit www.impactforecasting.com.

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Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® LLC summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® LLC and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at www.impactforecasting.com.

Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® L.L.C. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® LLC has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® LLC does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

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