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Mindspace Business Parks REIT Equity Research INDIA September 14, 2020 BSE Sensex: 38855 Mindspace Business Parks REIT BUY ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report Building a strong edifice Rs302 We initiate coverage on Mindspace Business Parks REIT with a BUY rating based Initiating coverage on March 2022 DCF based target price of Rs358/unit. The REIT has a stabilised rent- yielding office portfolio spread across Hyderabad, Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Real Estate Pune and Chennai. With 92% committed occupancy and in-place rent of just Rs52/psf/month, we like the company given 16% NOI CAGR over FY20-23E, a Target price Rs358 resilient leasing cycle for office assets in India’s tier I cities and low leverage of 0.2x net debt/equity which leaves headroom for injection of new assets in the REIT portfolio. At CMP of Rs302, we estimate NDCF yield of ~7% over FY22-23E of which over 90% is estimated to consist of tax-free dividends. Key risk to our thesis is the Price chart large-scale adoption of Work-from-Home by occupiers over the long term. 320 315 Quality asset portfolio in tier I office markets: Mindspace Business Parks REIT 310 owns five integrated business parks and five quality independent office assets across 305 India with 23.0msf of completed leasable area, 2.8msf of under construction area and 300 (Rs) 295 3.7msf of future development pipeline. The portfolio is stabilized with 92.0% Committed 290 Occupancy and a Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) of 5.8 years. Of the total 285 asset portfolio, 41% of the office space is located in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, 39% 280 in Hyderabad, 17% in Pune and 3% in Chennai. Mindspace REIT has 172 tenants with top 10 occupiers contributing 42% of gross contracted rentals. The technology (44%) 10-Aug 20-Aug 30-Aug 09-Sep and financial services sectors (22%) account for majority of tenants. Strong NOI growth CAGR of 16% over FY20-23E: We expect Mindspace REIT’s Net Operating Income (NOI) to grow at a 16% CAGR over FY20-23E based on the expected ramp up in occupancies in existing assets, ~3msf of under construction assets coming on stream and annual rental escalations (4-5% annual escalation in existing contracts) and mark-up of leases which are expiring. This excludes any injection of RoFo assets. The REIT has reported resilient rental collections of 95-99% in the March-May 2020 period post onset of COVID-19 (in line with listed peers) and has leased 0.7msf of area (of which 40.5% was leased to its existing tenants and 59.5% was leased to new tenants). India’s long term advantages remain as a high-quality office hub: While COVID- 19 will likely impact FY21 leasing activity, our view is that the Indian office market retains many positives such as: 1) Limited number of 8-10 pan-India developers capable of building quality rental assets; 2) India remains one of the more affordable office markets in the world, with average rentals for Grade A office markets in peripheral/suburban markets hovering around 1 USD/psf/month or Rs70-75/psf/month; 3) India leads in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) talent for technology assignments with over 2 million students graduating every year. Market Cap Rs179bn/US$2.4bn Year to Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Bloomberg MINDSPCE IN Revenue (Rs bn) 17.7 16.6 20.7 23.4 Shares Outstanding (mn) 593.0 Adjusted PAT (Rs bn) 4.7 7.8 7.2 7.9 52-week Range (Rs) 315/275 EPU (Rs) - 13.1 12.1 13.3 Free Float (%) NA NDCF (Rs bn) NM 5.6* 12.1 12.8 FII (%) NA P/E (x) - 23.0 24.9 22.7 Daily Volume (US$'000) NA P/B (x) - 1.1 1.1 1.2 Absolute Return 3m (%) NA Net D/E (x) 3.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 Absolute Return 12m (%) NA Distribution yield (%) - 6.3* 6.7 7.1 Research Analyst: Sensex Return 3m (%) 16.5 RoCE (%) - 6.4 6.8 7.5 Adhidev Chattopadhyay Sensex Return 12m (%) 5.4 RoE (%) - 4.7 4.4 5.0 [email protected] *For 6 months in FY21 from Oct 2020 to Mar 2021 +91 22 6637 7451 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Mindspace Business Parks REIT, September 14, 2020 ICICI Securities TABLE OF CONTENT Company Profile .............................................................................................................. 3 Overview of Assets .......................................................................................................... 4 High quality tenants in key office markets .................................................................... 6 Strong tenant base across sectors ................................................................................ 7 Experienced sponsors and Governing Board .............................................................. 8 Resilient performance amidst COVID-19 impact .......................................................... 9 Strong NOI CAGR of 16% over FY20-23E .................................................................... 10 ROFO Assets offer long term growth potential .......................................................... 13 Leverage Profile ............................................................................................................. 14 Valuation ......................................................................................................................... 15 Initiate with BUY rating .................................................................................................. 16 Key Risks ........................................................................................................................ 18 Indian office market: COVID woes in CY20 ................................................................. 19 What are the positives that remain? ............................................................................ 20 Implications for our coverage universe ......................................................................... 21 CY14-16 witnessed strong absorption of office space .................................................. 22 CY19 net absorption was higher on back of higher completions .................................. 23 Net absorption/demand to contract 40-50% in CY20-21E ............................................ 23 Bengaluru and Hyderabad remain the key markets ..................................................... 24 Two-third of India office demand driven by MNCs ........................................................ 25 Global In-House Captives (GICs): A key driver of office demand ................................ 26 Institutional money flowing into Indian rental assets and emergence of REITs ........... 28 REIT Regulations/Taxation in India .............................................................................. 29 What are REITs? ........................................................................................................... 29 Regulatory Framework for Indian REITs ..................................................................... 29 Taxation Framework for Indian REITs ......................................................................... 31 Key Portfolio Assets ...................................................................................................... 33 Hyderabad: .................................................................................................................... 33 Mumbai Metropolitan Region: ....................................................................................... 35 Pune .............................................................................................................................. 38 Annexure 1: India Office Market Trends ...................................................................... 41 Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR): Steady leasing activity ...................................... 42 National Capital Region (NCR): Gurugram CBD stands out ........................................ 44 Bengaluru: To retain leadership position ...................................................................... 46 Chennai: Steady leasing activity ................................................................................... 48 Hyderabad: Pre-leasing drives absorption .................................................................... 50 Pune: Vacancy levels remain low ................................................................................. 52 Kolkata: Supply overhang continues ............................................................................. 54 Annexure 2: Major leasing transactions over CY15-H1CY20 .................................... 56 Financial summary (Consolidated) .............................................................................. 71 Index of Tables and Charts ........................................................................................... 73 2 Mindspace Business Parks REIT, September 14, 2020 ICICI Securities Company Profile Mindspace Business Parks REIT owns five integrated business parks and five quality independent office assets across India with 23.0msf of completed leasable area, 2.8msf of under construction and 3.7msf of Future development pipeline. As of 31 March 2020, the Portfolio is stabilized with 92.0% Committed Occupancy and a Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) of 5.8 years. It was listed on August 7, 2020. Mindspace REIT is sponsored by the KRC Group (K Raheja Corp.), a prominent real- estate development and retail business group, with experience of over four decades in developing and operating assets across commercial, hospitality, retail, malls and residential segments). The KRC Group has acquired and/or developed properties across
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