COLOUR AND

Jan Holzer 14th April 2020 AIMS OF THE LECTURE

Description of the debate on so-called colour revolutions and Arab spring.

Structure: a) Colour (flower) revolutions: data; b) Theories of color revolutions; c) Arab Spring.

COLOUR REVOLUTIONS – HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Classical examples  rose in (November 2003 - March 2004)  in (2004- January 2005)  in Kyrgyzstan (April 2005)  (May 2005); (November 2005) Prologue  the fall of Slobodan Milosevic´s hybrid / nondemocratic regime in Serbia (2000) - so-called bulldozer revolution (Sarah Birch 2002) Out of post-soviet area  in (2005)  in Burma (2007)

COLOUR REVOLUTIONS – BASIC QUESTIONS

 How has the phenomenon enriched / corrected the debates on the development of post-transitive regimes and their ?  What contribution does the theory bring to date?  Do they represent a sign of real democratization?  An essential feature is the link with the fraudulent / manipulative behaviour of elites in parliamentary / presidential elections, hence the notion of electoral revolution. COLOUR REVOLUTIONS: ENTRY PREREQUISITIES

 Georgia and Ukraine interpreted as (1) evidence of a chance of general democratization in the post-Soviet area and (2) practical guidance on how to do so  the legitimacy of colour revolutions: the output of a long-term search for new rules of the game = the country at the beginning of XXI. st. in transition, the original themes (building new, independent nation states and breaking with ) no longer mobilize  definition of the regime to be removed: hybrid regimes, unfinished outputs from the 1989-1991 era processes, defying the previous political model of Kravtchuk, Kuchma, Shevardnadze; the new regimes of Yushchenko and Saakashvili  Election problem: key classification criterion vs. analyzing these regimes is not enough to focus solely on the phenomenon of elections; Ukraine has shown a wide range of strategies that both democratic and non-democratic actors can use during the campaign

ACADEMIC DEBATE – TWO PERIODS

Concentration to explanation of the success (2005-2008)

 Domestic factors: M. McFaul, T. Kuzio, D. O´Beachain, A. Polese, Tudoriou  Dissemination, diffusion, positive example, democracy promotion: V. Bunce, S. Wolchik, M. Beissinger  Elites, elite distribution, game theory: concepts of winning coalition, lame duck syndrome, tipping point, participation motivation (A. J. Tucker), individual contra collective actions problem etc: P. D'Anieri, D. Lane, H. Hale, P. K. Baev...

Concentration to explanation of the failure (2008-)  Failure cases, failure factors: E. Finkel and Y. Brudny, V. Silitsky, L. A. Way, S. Kalanandze, M. A. Orenstein, E. Korostolevova, D. O´Beachain, A. Polese...  Nondemocratic regimes have taken over colour revolutions techniques and used them against them; they able to learn, reflect on their weaknesses, etc. MICHAEL McFAUL (2005)

Michael McFaul: Transition from postcommunism, Journal of Democracy (2005: 7)

Ingredients / Factors of Colour Revolutions a) semi-authoritative (hybrid) rather than authoritarian regime; b) unpopular holders of power; c) united and organized political opposition; d) ability to quickly prove the falsification of election results; e) sufficiently independent media to inform citizens of the falsification of elections; f) political opposition capable of mobilizing at least 100.000 demonstrators; g) the split of the regime's pressure services (missing in Uzbekistan).

PAUL D´ANIERI I.

Paul D´Anieri: Explaining the success and failure of post-communist revolutions, Communist and Post-Communist Studies (2006)

Task: compare not only successes, but also cases of unsuccessful attempts (Serbia 1996-97, Ukraine 2001, Azerbaijan 2003) - to define differences causing success / failure. Main theses: elites, including special services, played a larger role than expected; their decision crucial to the success / failure of the strategy, a criterion for assessing the degree of necessity to use violence to suppress the opposition. In general, further evidence of the key role of elites in post-communist transitions, including 1989. Threshold model of protest: tipping point, tipping mechanism, self-reinforcing cycles of decision making process, mobilization capacity, political opportunity structure

PAUL D´ANIERI II.

General model of color revolutions by P. D'Anieri All of them can be identified with 4 common features (most different from Kyrgyzstan): 1. the existing anti-government opposition already before the "revolution"; 2. for the resignation of the President prepared in advance; 3. the opposition must expand the protests enough to make the President's calculations aim at giving up and not retaining power; be prepared for the stresses associated with the dangers of criminalization, intimidation and physical repression; to create an atmosphere of possible agreement for the president if he retreats (immunity, power sharing, round tables) - according to d´Anieri course of post-revolution politics 4. special services: a key role, often the capacity for preemptive action (see and the term preemptive democracy – A. Tucker 2006, or preemptive – V. Silitsky 2006); the ability to combine hard and soft methods.

The question of support from abroad: rather the question of training (eg monitoring the fairness of the elections), but the resources must be internal. VALERIE BUNCE AND SARAH L. WOLCHIK

Bunce, V. - Wolchik, S. L.: International diffusion and post-communist electoral revolutions, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 39, No 3, 2006, pp. 283-304.

Definition of diffusion: process wherein new ideas, institutions, policies, models or repertoires of behavior spread geographically from a core site to other sites, whether within a given state (as when the movement of new policies invented in one political subunit spreads to other subunits within a federal polity) or across states (as the spread, for example, of public sector downsizing or non-governmental organizations).

The real causes of electoral revolution / model of change: not only structural influences, but also the role of elections as an environment for political change and the influence of transnational / foreign actors + real actors (authoritative elites) - have the greatest influence and opportunities to change the regime.

The opposition was successful thanks to the creative work of collaborative transnational networks, which in addition to domestic activities included the activities of international organizations and foreign aid.

ARAB SPRING: GENERAL INFO

Series of anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed that spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. It began in response to oppressive regimes and a low standard of living, starting with protests in Tunisia. The protests then spread to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain. Street demonstrations: Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Iranian Khuzestan, Lebanon, Jordan, , Oman, Sudan. Minor protests: Djibouti, Mauritania, the Palestinian National Authority, Saudi Arabia.

Issues:  relationship between democracy and religion;  role of social media  fall of strategy of democracy promotion and liberal argumentation  instead of democratizing authoritarianism, strengthening totalitarian actors (al-Qaida)

ARAB SPRING: J.J. LINZ AND A. STEPAN

Stepan, A. - Linz, J. J.: Democratization Theory and the „Arab Spring“, Journal of Democracy, 2013, Vol. 24, pp. 15-30.

Three topics that have been illuminated by the events of the Arab Spring: 1) the relationship between democracy and religion, especially in the world’s Muslim-majority countries; 2) the character of hybrid regimes; 3) the nature of “sultanism” and its implications for transitions to democracy.

POSSIBLE QUESTIONS IN THE TEST

 Name at least five examples of colour revolutions (name, country, year).  Name at least five authors dealing with colour revolutions and write out three of them which interpretation of the success of colour revolutions they prefer.  Name the ingredients / factors of according to M. McFaul.  Explain the approach of P. D´Anieri / V. Bunce and S. Wolchik to colour revolutions.  List the topics typical for the so-called Arab Spring debate.  Explain the approach of J. J. Linz and A. Stepan to the relationship between democratization and the Arab Spring. OBLIGATORY LITERATURE

 Bunce, V. - Wolchik, S. L.: International diffusion and post-communist electoral revolutions, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 39, No 3, 2006, pp. 283-304.  D´Anieri, P.: Explaining the success and failure of post-communist revolutions, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 2006, Vol. 39. No 3, pp. 331-350.  McFaul, M.: Transition from post-communism, Journal of Democracy, 2005, Vol. 16, No 3, pp. 5-19.  Stepan, A. - Linz, J. J.: Democratization Theory and the „Arab Spring“, Journal of Democracy, 2013, Vol. 24, pp. 15-30. THE END

Thank you!