Hurricane Season Mostly Quiet at Midway Point

September 10, 2014 Hurricane season mostly quiet at midway point

It's been a quiet hurricane so far, but don't tell that to "We have a lot of time to go in the season, and one of Dennis Feltgen at the National Hurricane Center in the biggest challenges we have this time of year is Miami. complacency," Mayfield said. "A lot of people say 'hurricane season is pretty much over.' That's definitely a "It doesn't matter," Feltgen said when asked if El Nino problem with making sure the public is prepared." conditions were keeping a lid on the 2014 hurricane season. "It doesn't matter what the seasonal outlook is. Mayfield said Hurricane Andrew in 1992 is a good What matters is being prepared. We've got three months example of a quiet season undone by a single system. of hurricane season to go, and we're in the peak." "It was a very slow year in general, with the exception of Sept. 9, 10 and 11 are the days, historically, with the one storm, and that was Andrew," Mayfield said. "It only most activity in the Atlantic basin, according to the takes one bad storm to make it a bad day for Southwest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This Florida." week is also the midway point of the hurricane season, Hurricane Arthur hit North Carolina in July with 100 mph which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Meteorologists winds and several inches of rain. Arthur is the only storm are monitoring two systems now, a disturbance off the that has made a significant impact on the U.S., but east coast of Florida and another low pressure system Felten points to Hurricane Wilma, which struck that spun off the west coast of Africa earlier this week. Southwest Florida on Oct. 24, 2005, as an example of a The Atlantic has produced four named systems, and late-season storm that can have major impact. three of those have become hurricanes. An average Climate maps from the NOAA show September and year is 12 named storms, with six of those becoming October as months with likely hurricane tracks that hurricanes — three of those being category 3 or higher. impact Florida. October is considered by some to be the Although void of big-name storms, the 2014 seasons most dangerous month of the season here, as hurricane has been active. In recent weeks, the NHC monitored as origin points shift from the Atlantic Ocean and west many as five tropical systems in a day. Africa to the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Lee Mayfield, planning chief at Lee County Emergency "The prime development area shifts, but in September Operations, said Southwest Florida residents and it's pretty much everywhere," Feltgen said. "In October property owners should keep an eye on the tropics everything shifts westward to the Caribbean Sea and through the end of season. Late September and October Gulf of Mexico. Those waters are still warm. That time of are when the Gulf of Mexico is the most active. year the storms go that way more and more because we're starting to go into the fall months, and the cold

fronts are starting to move through, and the winds are coming out of the southwest and that tends to pull the systems northward."

Hurricane Wilma, Feltgen said, followed that script exactly, forming in the Gulf of Mexico before slamming into Naples, Fort Myers and the Lake Okeechobee area before reemerging in the Atlantic.

Storms can form as late as Thanksgiving — 15 named formed during third week of November from 1851 through 2009, according to NOAA records.

Dan Summers, direct of Collier County's Bureau of Emergency Services, said he notices a falloff in public interest this time of year.

"I sort of gauge it by the number of speaking engagements we get," Summers said. "We get a lot of engagements at the beginning of the season, and it has fallen off now that we're at the midpoint. That's a concern, but it hasn't slowed our preparedness activities down whatsoever."

Systems form anywhere from western Africa to the Gulf of Mexico to well north of the Bahamas. Tropical storms have even formed over Venezuela in South America, where direct impacts from named systems are rare.

Tropical systems have been active in the Pacific Ocean this year, with the 15th named storm emerging Wednesday. The Pacific records more named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes than the Atlantic does in an average year. This year is not average, Feltgen said.

"If we have a relatively average or below average Atlantic season, it's not unusual for the eastern Pacific to be above average," he said.