Director’s foreword...... 2 Headlines HJS shaped...... 14 Publications...... 3 Upcoming Publications...... 16 Events...... 5 Upcoming Events...... 19 Media...... 12 Supporting HJS...... 20 reviewQuarterly AUTUMN 2016

Profiles of Islamic State Leaders Kyle Orton Democracy

Freedom

Human 1 Autumn 2016 RightsQuarterly Review Director’s foreword

that mistaken analysis has had devastating ways in which the well-organised, extremist- consequences for our security. In Governing supported campaign has been undermining the the Caliphate: Profiles of Islamic State Leaders, Prevent duty – the legal responsibility placed on Research Fellow Kyle Orton demonstrates that public sector bodies, including universities, to misreporting the IS-directed terror attacks in have mechanisms in place to prevent individuals Europe as lone-wolf incidents enabled the Paris from being drawn into terrorism. attack to succeed unimpeded. In An Enduring To increase exposure to the issues on which Threat: Europe’s Islamist Terror Networks, we work and provide thought leadership, we Research Fellows Emma Webb and Rupert have continued to reach out to the public Sutton establish that the seemingly unrelated through our events series. This quarter saw al-Qaeda and IS networks are in fact directly a superb range of scholars, diplomats, and connected – countering the position that the world-leading experts hosted at The Henry IS represents a new form of terrorism. We have Jackson Society, including the renowned Dr. Alan Mendoza pointed out to the government that if Islamist- French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy, who related terrorism is to be challenged then these discussed the possible implications of connections must be taken into account. for the UK, Europe and democracy; journalist Welcome to the Autumn edition of The Henry In July, we also marked the anniversary of and author Christopher Caldwell, who debated Jackson Society’s Quarterly Review. the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the whether or not can win the US The last three months have seen historical intensely-flawed, so-called ‘nuclear deal’ with Presidential elections; and Major General Yaacov change unfold in Europe – with the UK’s dramatic . Our Centre for the New , in Amidror, former Adviser to vote to leave the in a gripping collaboration with the Friends of Israel Initiative, the PM of Israel, who dispelled some illusions referendum, consequent unpredictable political produced The Iran Deal a Year On: Assessing about the Middle East. change in the UK’s governmental and political Iranian Ambitions – a compendium of essays As we approach the US presidential elections, scene, and opinion sharply divided over the by key experts, examining key areas where the and with the post-Brexit deal still in the making, long-term effects of the decision. Meanwhile, Iran deal has failed to live up to its objectives. there is a large amount of uncertainty on the terrorist atrocities have caused havoc and Not only does the report establish that Iran has horizon about both the US and the UK’s future destruction in France, Germany and the US. undermined the deal, but it also suggests that direction. Whatever the political outcomes, In response to the waves of uncertainty and international security, nuclear non-proliferation, The will continue its terror, we at The Henry Jackson Society have regional stability, and peace for the Iranian important work at the international arena, working strived to provide consistency and clarity by people are less likely as a consequence. The closely with those in Westminster and beyond providing both the public and decision-makers Centre for the New Middle East has responded to bring further awareness, and policy change, with access to the facts through innovative and to another key development in the ever-chaotic on security challenges at home and abroad. practical research. We also continued to shape Middle East region – the French Peace Initiative and impact public debate through our highly – with the major policy report An Alternative I hope you enjoy our Autumn Quarterly Review popular events programme and media input to the French Peace Initiative, warning that and would like to take this opportunity to thank and appearances, providing robust analysis of France’s plan may negate the importance of you for your generous support and participation unfolding events throughout the world. As the direct negotiations and exacerbate chaos. in our activities. publications, events, and media sections of this The past quarter has been eventful for our issue demonstrate, our views are disseminated Student Rights campaign – The Henry Jackson far and wide. Society’s campus extremism monitoring unit, Islamist-related terrorism, which continues to which relies on students being on the front- present itself as one of the most challenging line in order to tackle poisonous influence security threats of our time, has been central and anti-Semitism in universities. The much Dr. Alan Mendoza to our efforts over the last quarter, with the needed forthcoming policy paper Myths and Executive Director publication of two papers at the forefront of the Misunderstandings: Understanding Opposition Islamic State (IS) discussion. Both reports suggest to the Prevent Strategy, articulates the various

2 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Publications

Governing the Caliphate: Profiles of Islamic State Leaders Kyle Orton

Published in July, this paper is a comprehensive compilation of everything known about the Islamic State’s leadership, profiling the individuals and institutions that govern the caliphate. The paper also assesses the infrastructure that Islamic State has in Europe and the wider world, who is involved, and how the organisation conducts terrorism abroad. The paper further examines Islamic States’s rise, what it was about the organisation that allowed it to build a statelet in the heart of the Middle East, and how it has been sustained. It also offers an explanation for why losing that statelet in this way may lead to a short-term increase in terrorism against the West but may not be the end of Islamic State in the long-term.

An Alternative to the French Peace Initiative: A Way Forward for Israel and its Arab Neighbours Tom Wilson

This major policy report from The Henry Jackson Society analyses An Alternative to the America’s reservations regarding elements of the French proposed French Peace Initiative: Peace Initiative, arguing France’s initiative risks side-lining the importance A way forward for Israel and its of direct negotiations by repeating policy miscalculations, which could instead exacerbate chaos. The paper suggests that Britain should also Arab Neighbours distance itself from the prospective negotiations. But this should not immediately be seen as a step-back: the report suggests that Britain Centre for the New Middle East Policy Paper No. 11 (2016) should use its positive relations to publically promote and strengthen a regional alignment, which is already developing between pro-Western Tom Wilson

The Henry Jackson Society Middle Eastern powers, such as Israel and the Gulf States. Moreover, it August 2016 argues that Britain’s own interests would be advanced through improved opportunities for commerce, diplomacy and security in and from the Middle East. A more prominent diplomatic alliance between Sunni powers and Israel - in response to the threats posed by Iran - could therefore lay the foundation for progress on the Palestinian front.

Front Cover Photos: Back Cover Photos:

Douglas Murray and Bernard-Henri Lévy Hannah Stuart on BBC News Publication: Governing the Caliphate: Dr. Andrew Foxall, Henry Smith MP, Profiles of the Islamic State David Satter Event: The UN Human Rights Council Dr. Alan Mendoza on SABC News at 10: Assessing in the Performance Dr. Shiraz Maher, Davis Lewin of the UNHRC

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 3 Publications continued

An Enduring Threat: Europe’s The Iran Deal a Year On: Islamist Terror Networks Then Assessing Iranian Ambitions The Iran Deal a Year On: And Now This publication by The Henry Jackson Society and The Emma Webb and Rupert Sutton FriendsAssessing of Israel Initiative Iranian examines Ambitionsthe key areas where the This report is the first major comparison between the Iran deal has failed to live up to its objectives. The paper terrorist networks associated with al-Qaeda, which targeted is a compendium of essays by key experts who examine Europe in the early 2000s, and the Islamic State networks, the critical issues through the lens of the implementation of which struck Paris and Brussels in November 2015 and the agreement, Iran’s regional ambitions and its human rights March 2016. The report profiled those alleged to be record over the last year. behind the Paris and Brussels attacks and identified the The essays included in this paper outline in detail the failure similarities between the two networks. It uncovered a clear of the international community to ensure the adequate continuity between the Islamist terrorists of the early 2000s implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and today, with evidence of direct connections between (JCPOA), highlighting how Iran has faced no penalties for profiled al-Qaeda terrorists and a recruitment network breaching the nuclear agreement and how serious concerns that radicalised men including Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the exist over International Atomic Energy Agency findings and leader of the team which carried out the Paris attack. reporting in relation to the military dimension of Iran’s nuclear Contrary to the position that the Islamic State’s plots programme. In addition to exposing how grave violations represent a new form of terrorism, the comparison of of human rights and freedom within Iran have not ceased, the old and new networks found key similarities in the the report notes that Iran remains the principal sponsor of biographies of many of the members of both networks. terrorism in the world and that Iranian forces, in particular the These included the extent to which members of both Revolutionary Guards Corps, are still involved in Iraq, Syria networks had received training or combat experience from and Yemen as an integral part of the Iranian government’s jihadist groups overseas, and a significant history of petty destabilising agenda. crime and drug use among network members, both prior Above all, the paper lays bare the failure of the P5+1 strategy to to radicalisation and to fund terrorist activity. normalise Iran’s international relations. Despite the assurances That the Islamic State network which struck Paris and made by the deal’s supporters, a year after the nuclear deal, Brussels contained many similarities to those that targeted far from being better, the resulting situation is worse. Worse for Europe 15 years earlier appears to have been a disastrous international security, for nuclear non-proliferation, for regional failure to learn the lessons provided by past plots. Given stability, and above all for the people of Iran themselves. the similarities between the two networks profiled, any Iran has not moved any closer toward becoming a regular future European Islamist terrorist networks will likely share nation-state in the international community, has breached the some of the same characteristics. If these networks are to JCPOA and associated agreements, and has neither changed be successfully challenged, government policy must take its course in the region nor given any indication of easing this into account. repression domestically.

4 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Events

The US Presidential Elections - Can Trump Win?

On 22nd June, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed journalist and writer Christopher Caldwell, who focused his talk on whether or not Donald Trump presented an electoral threat to Hilary Clinton. Caldwell argued it was possible for Trump to win, and that all the calculations suggesting Trump cannot win are based on the assumption that the 2016 race will be similar to past elections. He cited Trump’s strong support from the Republican base due to a shift in the American economy from factories towards tech and universities, and claimed the Democratic Party has become the party of the rich, with Democrat voters benefiting from the new digital economy at the expense of traditional republican supporters. Caldwell also viewed Trump’s nomination as a rift between republican donors and voters, forcing the leadership and major donors Dr. Alan Mendoza, Christopher Caldwell to see that their voting base holds different views from their own, a fact that will now be impossible to ignore.

Giles Merritt, Tom Wilson

Burma: A Nation at the Crossroads The Aftermath of the UK

On 28th June, human rights activist Benedict Rogers spoke Referendum on the state and future of Burmese democracy and the On 29th June, we hosted Giles Merritt, former Financial events leading up to Burma’s new and reasonably democratic Times correspondent in Brussels and founder of the elections. Rogers began by describing the lead up to the think-tank. While making clear his strong November 2015 elections: the regime had held elections for support for EU membership, Merritt sharply criticised the the first time in 2010, widely considered a sham, leaving the secretive and undemocratic aspects of the EU. He voiced military in power. But in August 2011, President Thein Sein cautious hope that the EU referendum would be a catalyst met Aung San Suu Kyi and a period of reform began. A for essential EU reform, towards an elected executive second election was held in 2015, which appeared to be fair supported by a bicameral parliament. Some guests allowing Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for expressed scepticism over the possibility of EU reform Democracy, to win with an overwhelming majority. The newly and concern that in its current form it is curbing national elected officials took office early this year. Rogers explained sovereignty. Merritt responded by referring to the abstract that certain constitutional clauses have left the military with nature of sovereignty and argued that the economic clout significant power. Two major challenges face Burma, he that comes with EU membership is of much greater value. argued: ethnic conflict and rising religious intolerance. In Merritt remained hopeful that Brexit will allow Europeans Rogers’ view, these can only be addressed through talks on to rethink their identity and will eventually lead to a more federalism. democratic and vibrant system of governance.

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 5 Events continued

The Intervention in Yemen: A New Era for Gulf Security and Gulf Militaries?

On 4th July, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed Dr. David Roberts, a lecturer in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College . Dr. Roberts analysed the security orientation of the Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, from the perspective of the conflict in Yemen, discussing both the will and skill of these states to deploy their military forces. Dr. Roberts used the example of Yemen to illustrate that the conventional wisdom regarding the skill and will of Gulf armies no longer holds true, arguing that they may now have highly skilled militaries who are willing to go to war. He offered the alternative view that, this new apparent willingness may be a result of a worsening relationship with the US or as it was deemed necessary in Dr. David Roberts Yemen, not a result of a fundamental shift in the Gulf militaries.

The UN Human Rights Council at 10: Assessing the Performance of the UNHRC On 4th July, Hillel Neuer, Executive Director of United Nations Watch, gave a lecture on the state of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), focusing on the problems with the Council as well as the ways in which it can be reformed. Neuer began by describing the evolution of the UNHRC, drawing attention to the then Secretary General, Kofi Annan’s 2005 criticisms and reforms. Anan criticised the UNHRC for being used by countries as a shield against inspection and that its work is undermined by politics. Neuer argued that while steps had been attempted to address these problems, little has been achieved and powerful countries are easily able to exempt themselves from criticism. He pointed out the unfair targeting of Israel in the council, as more resolutions have been passed against Israel than the rest of the world combined, and the flawed process of appointing experts, as many are puppets appointed by abusive countries to further their agendas.

Shale Gas and Fracking: The Science Behind the Controversy

On 6th July, Professor Michael Stephenson, Director of Science and Technology at the British Geological Survey, gave a lecture on his new book Shale Gas and Fracking: The Science behind the Controversy. Prof. Stephenson’s lecture focused on pros and cons of shale gas from the European and American perspectives. He described the widespread scientific misunderstandings surrounding fracking that had motivated him to write his recent book. Prof. Stephenson then debated whether shale gas was a more environmentally friendly energy source than coal, and addressed fears over fracking causing gas pollution of local water sources and earthquakes. Prof. Stephenson concluded his lecture by considering what a shale industry in the UK may look like in the future, highlighting that fracking has very similar issues to many other industrial processes carried out within the UK and should be Professor Michael Stephenson subject to similar engineering and environmental regulations.

6 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

Shaukat Aziz, Lord Arbuthnot, Anna Mikhailova

Douglas Murray, Bernard-Henri Lévy From Banking to the Thorny World of Politics The Aftermath of Brexit: Could the EU and UK Both Die? On 7th July, Shaukat Aziz, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, and Anna Mikhailova, journalist and co-author on his recent On 12th July, The Henry Jackson Society hosted an event with book From Banking to the Thorny World of Politics, spoke renowned French philosopher, journalist and writer Bernard- to The Henry Jackson Society. Prime Minister Aziz sought Henri Lévy. Lévy focused on the possible implications of in his address to clarify the current position of Pakistan in Brexit for the UK, Europe and democracy. While discussing global relations, so that the world might better understand the negative consequences for the UK, Lévy focused on the country through an insider’s account of Pakistan’s current the broader societal implications. He perceives the UK’s challenges. He discussed Pakistan’s relationship with , identity to be rooted in its openness to the other, therefore which he explained has always been purely bilateral, and in his view, the nationalist rhetoric prevalent in the ‘Leave’ never based on mutual interests with respect to any third campaign discourse was a betrayal of true Britishness. country. He mentioned that Pakistan’s relationship with Lévy blamed those who lied during their campaign and the Russia has been improving, and that he believed it would inactive foreign statesmen for the failure to make Europe reach the strength of the Pakistan-US and Pakistan-China desirable enough for the outcome of the British referendum. relationships within three to five years. He finished by saying He emphasised that Britain should not be punished for its that relations had sometimes been strained by the US’ desire decision to leave the EU. Instead, he hoped that the British to focus on tackling al-Qaeda, in contrast with Pakistan’s referendum will allow the EU countries and Britain to reinvent greater concern with other more local terrorist groups. Europe together.

The Rise of Reiderstvo: Implications for Russia and the West

The Henry Jackson Society were pleased to welcome Dr. Louise Shelley of George Mason University on 13th July, to speak on the topic of her recent report, The Rise of Reiderstvo: Implications for Russia and the West. Dr. Shelley highlighted that, since the 2000s, many company takeovers have been orchestrated by corrupt public officials, rather than by organised crime groups. She said that the rise in prosecutions for economic crimes does not reflect progress in the Russian fight against corruption. On the contrary, these prosecutions are used by raiders to threaten or remove the leading figures in targeted corporations. Dr. Shelley also spoke about how reiderstvo has discouraged foreign direct investment, and has impacted very negatively on Russians who have been deprived of business opportunities. Dr. Shelley argued that increased transparency in the global financial system is the only real way of tackling the phenomenon. She concluded that there is currently a real appetite among Russian entrepreneurs to combat reiderstvo in light of the recent drop in living standards.

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 7 Events continued

Can Private Initiatives by Ukraine’s Business Leaders Help Drive Economic and Political Recovery?

On 13th July, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed Ukranian MP Sergii Tartuta, along with a delegation of Ukrainian officials, to a conversation on the future of Ukraine’s economy. Tartuta explained that Ukraine is important not only to European security, but also to the substantiation of democratic values and economic prosperity within the EU. He argued that the Ukrainian economy had a huge productive potential, but was unable to meet this due to a variety of economic ills including: war with Russia, political instability, and excessive market regulation. The delegation believes that the best way to achieve economic growth is by promoting a new constitution, which would outline a programme to boost the economy within a decade, boost judicial transparency, reform the financial services Dr. Alan Mendoza, Sergii Tartuta MP sector, and liberalise the market. If this is delivered, Ukraine will be one of the world’s best countries for investment, the delegates agreed.

Davis Lewin, General Yaacov Amidror

Britain’s Stake in the South No More Illusions - Changes in the China Sea Middle East

On 19th July, The Henry Jackson Society gathered a panel On 20th July, Major General Yaacov Amidror, former National of experts to discuss the political implications of The Hague’s Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel and ex-Head of ruling against China’s activities in the South China Sea, for the National Security Council, addressed The Henry Jackson the region and for Britain. Steven Haines, Law Professor, Society. His talk focused on the illusions that need to be provided a brief legal summary of the ruling and focused dispelled about the Middle East and the changes taking place on what was not decided in the ruling. Emma Sarne from in the region. He began with a tour of Middle Eastern relations, the Philippine Embassy presented the Philippines’ position listing some of the new realities in the region, such as America’s in the conflict and explained the reasons for addressing the reduced role and the instability produced by the . tribunal in the first place. Bill Hayton, author and Associate He also spoke about the dichotomy between fundamentalist at Chatham House, focused on the reaction to the tribunal and modernity dividing the Islamic world. Amidror argued in the Chinese media. Benjamin Ho, an International Studies that Sunni states no longer represent the primary threat to Israel, Associate Research Fellow, expressed fears that the ruling the primary threat is now (militant) NGOs and Iran. He also might make China even more defensive in the future. These said that the ‘Palestine issue’ is the only thing preventing Sunni short presentations were followed by a lively discussion in states from openly forming strong relationships with Israel. which the importance of Great Britain, the regional role of Amidror pointed out that Israel is willing to attend negotiations the , and China’s commitment to international on Palestine but Mahmoud Abbas has repeatedly pulled out of law were addressed. negotiations that require compromise.

8 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

The Black Door: The Evolving Relationship Between Britain’s Secret Services and the Prime Minister

On 20th July, Professor Richard Aldrich, author of The Black Door and Professor of International Security, University of Warwick, gave a lecture on the challenges that intelligence presents for Downing Street. Prof. Aldrich explained how the nature of intelligence posed a challenge to our relationship with intelligence services. The first reason given was technological changes and the rise of big data, predicting our behaviour and the use of corporations to collect this data. Another is the new oversight of intelligence agencies by individuals who are able to access and easily distribute vast quantities of government documents. Prof. Aldrich concluded that this new environment of increased transparency and intelligence gathering tools had encouraged Professor Richard Aldrich, Lord Butler some governments to attempt to shape the public perception of intelligence.

Political Islam in the UK

Steven Merley, editor of Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Watch (GMBDW) gave a talk on 21st July regarding the existence of a global network of the Muslim Brotherhood and affiliated organisations. He concentrated on the members based in the and their relationship with the core of the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism. Merley began by explaining his professional history and the history of the Muslim Brotherhood. As groups would rarely admit to being connected to the trade union, GMBDW, Merley spoke about how they are identified in this way, by looking at funding, the leaders, institutional links and . One example of a group he identified as having links to the GMBDW is the Muslim Association of Britain. Since statements from leaders cannot be trusted, in-depth investigation into the connections among different organisations is the only way to identify the extent of the Muslim Brotherhood membership in Britain, he argued.

Saudi Arabia’s New Strategic Calculus

On 1st August, Andrew Bowen, a Global Fellow of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, gave a talk on whether the strategic gamble that is “Vision 2030” will in fact pay off in light of current threats such as the Islamic State and worsening relations with Iran. He focused on the importance of the reforms in mind, and the significance of Saudi’s younger generation as well as commenting on how leadership in the Middle East is coming from people under the age of 40. Bowen discussed the challenges faced by Saudi Arabia, economic and political, reforms Saudi Arabia wants to make by 2030 and the viability of such reforms, concluding that “Vision 2030” would most likely not be achieved in the planned time frame. He also commented on the industrial strategy of the Saudi Andrew Bowen, Davis Lewin government, including its priority aim of economic diversification.

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 9 Events continued

Salafi-Jihadism: The History of an Idea

On 24th August, Dr. Shiraz Maher addressed The Henry Jackson Society on the subject of his book Salafi-Jihadism: The History of an Idea. Dr. Maher explained Salafism as a broad revivalist stream of Islam, made up of quietists, politicians, and jihadis, with only the latter posing a danger to us. He said that while law should shape war, for Salafi-Jihadis war often shapes law, as they seek to justify their actions. He went into detail about the reality of Salafi- Jihadism as it is currently manifested in the Middle East. Dr. Maher said he was despondent about the situation, believing that no good deals can come out of the Syrian conflict, since even if the Islamic State is removed, populations have been indoctrinated to the extent that they will still see al-Qaeda as a legitimate political partner. He also spoke about the fact that while al-Qaeda constantly seeks to reinforce its religious image, the Islamic State is much less concerned Dr. Shiraz Maher, Davis Lewin about producing Islamic legal justifications for its activities.

Europe in Crisis – A Shattered Haven

On 6th September, The Henry Jackson Society held a screening of Europe in Crisis – A Shattered Haven. The film looked at rising European antisemitism emanating from both far-right and Islamist groups. , a journalist, said that antisemitism is central to all other forms of extremism. She said that the left-wing was demonising Europeans who objected to their culture being affected by the influx of Middle Eastern immigrants. Gideon Falter, Chairman of the Campaign Against Antisemitism, argued that liberal governments were not pursuing justice against extremists as much as they should, and were only trying to deal with antisemitism now that it has become violent, rather than tearing it out at its roots earlier on. Tom Wilson, Research Fellow at HJS, claimed that we are being reminded that has not been in practice for long, and as such we should not take it for granted. He said we must fight extremism by upholding the freedom of expression, so as to combat the imposition of Islamic blasphemy law which is increasingly being seen in Europe.

The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep: Russia’s Road to Terror and Dictatorship Under Yeltsin and Putin

On 13th September, David Satter, an author and former journalist, gave a talk on his book: The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep. Satter argued that authoritarianism in Russia evolved not only under Putin, but under Yeltsin too. He focused on the apartment bombings of 1999, arguing that they were the catalyst behind Putin’s ascent to the Presidency. Satter traced authoritarianism in Russia back to the fall of communism, claiming that instead of establishing a new post-Cold War society based on liberalism and strong moral values, the Russians instead focused on rapid privatisation, paying scant heed to the rule of law, and therefore forgoing their chance to establish anything other than the ‘façade’ of democracy. Satter criticised the West for tolerating the official Russian account of these events and concluded by stressing that Dr. Andrew Foxall, Henry Smith MP, David Satter Western politicians and intellectuals must hold Putin’s regime to account.

10 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

Emma Webb, Julian Brazier MP, Rupert Sutton

Report Launch: An Enduring Threat: The India-China-US Triangle

Europe’s Islamist Terror Networks Professor Madhav Das Nalapat, academic and columnist, Then and Now spoke at HJS on 19th September about the paramount importance of improving India’s human rights and the On 15th September, The Henry Jackson Society hosted an need to eliminate many colonial laws and practices. Prof. event in Parliament to launch a new report by Emma Webb Nalapat spoke of Prime Minister Modi making a break from and Rupert Sutton, Research Fellows at The HJS. The report previous Indian leaders through his advocacy of a policy is the first major publication to directly compare al-Qaeda of “minimum government and maximum governance”. and the Islamic State’s networks and operations in Europe. However, for Prof. Nalapat, India still remains guilty of illiberal Sutton opened the presentation by speaking about how the tendencies and the need to entrench liberty and restrict the recent attacks in Paris and Brussels have raised questions over powers of the state remains a high priority. In contrast to whether a new type of jihadism had emerged. Webb explained India’s relationship with America, which is based on the that the recent attacks by the Islamic State were unprecedented sharing of a liberal culture and mutual security concerns, as both attacks were carried out by the same network. This Prof. Nalapat argued that China was a natural commercial showed a development in the methods used by al-Qaeda partner for India. Prof. Nalapat discussed how Xi Jinping and by the Islamic State, based on the similarities that can is trying to make China the ‘world’s number one power’ be drawn between them. These include their structure, use of and said he believed that Jinping’s vision entailed boosting financiers, and that many of their members had foreign training Chinese entrepreneurship and improving links between Asia and a criminal history. Sutton concluded by claiming that the and Europe. Prof. Nalapat believes Modi wants to achieve similarities between the Islamic State and al-Qaeda suggests both good commercial relations with China and a good a failure to learn from past mistakes, and said that more must security relationship with America. Although he spoke of be done to track fighters returning to the UK after fighting in China’s hope that India may orient itself away from America, Syria to avoid the radicalisation of petty criminals and to prevent he reiterated that India needs American support to preserve known suspects travelling to Europe amid migrants. freedom and democracy. The Challenge of Corruption in Nigeria

On 20th September, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed Professor Abdullahi Shehu to discuss the obstacles that corruption poses to democratic governance, foreign investment and sustainable development in Nigeria. Prof. Shehu outlined the extent to which corruption can be found in every sector of society and how it continues to be an obstacle to democratic governance. He gave an insight into the ‘way forward’ in order to eradicate corruption in Nigeria, which included developing a strong and sustained political will and commitment that is matched with action. He then offered an optimistic conclusion to his discussion by highlighting that the problem cannot be solved overnight, as corruption is a deep-rooted issue. It will require transparent and sustainable efforts both internally and externally. He reiterated the importance of civil society engaging and talking about corruption, alongside the responsibility of the international community to engage with the problem in order to facilitate resolutions, such as ensuring the return of illegal assets to their victims.

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 11 Media

Dr. Alan Mendoza interviewed on SABC News Tom Wilson interviewed on CNN on the on the Chilcot Inquiry Ataturk Airport attack

Hannah Stuart on France 24 talking about Rupert Sutton on the Victoria Derbyshire the Choudary sentence Show talking about the Prevent Strategy

Douglas Murray on Sky News commenting on Dr. Alan Mendoza interviewed on WSJ Brexit cutoff date Editorial Board regarding Tory leadership contest

12 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Media continued

Dr. Alan Mendoza on Daily Politics following BBC News at 10 featuring Hannah Stuart in a the Chilcot Report release piece on

Douglas Murray on Newsnight following Dr. Alan Mendoza on Sky News speaking France’s Burkini row about the Trident Debate

Dr. Alan Mendoza interviews Tom Wilson interviewed on France 24 on J-T V following the terror attack in Nice

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 13 Headlines HJS shaped

14 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Headlines continued

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 15 Upcoming

The Prevent Duty in Higher Islamist Terrorism: Analysis of Offences Education: Managing External and Attacks in the UK (1999-2015) Speakers on Campus Hannah Stuart Gray Sergeant This is the second report by The Henry Jackson Society to provide a complete analysis of the threat to British national security from Since the introduction of the Counter Terrorism and international jihadist terrorism. Security Act 2015, universities have been legally obligated to establish procedures to deal with extreme The report is the culmination of a major study providing comprehensive speakers on campus. This was introduced as efforts insight into the profiles of convicted terrorists, as well as respective to tackle extremism were patchy across the Higher cells and networks, planned and foiled attacks. It analyses the data Education sector. to forge statistical and thematic connections between all Islamism- inspired terrorism convictions and attacks in the UK over a 15-year Our Student Rights campaign obtained 76 external period. speaker policies from English institutions in order to assess their robustness. The report’s initial findings It also assesses the proliferation of attacks and offences, individuals’ show many policies simply fail to deal with issues connections to terrorist groups, and the impact of training and combat relating to extremism and lack rigorous background experience, while exploring backgrounds, motivations, geographic checks for speakers. spread and frequency, painting a detailed picture of the ongoing battle against radicalisation and Islamist terrorism in the UK. Student Rights aims to use this report to provide personalised feedback to universities and improve the The report is an invaluable resource for those studying counter- quality of external speaker policies across the board. terrorism and counter-radicalisation.

Putin’s Useful Idiots: The British Far-Left, Far-Right and Russia Dr. Andrew Foxall

Russian President may have made the headlines recently after meeting a group of students, but his flirtations with the UK have a much longer history. This report provides a detailed investigation into links between individuals and groups on the fringes of British politics and their Russian counterparts. , formerly of the , spoke at pro-Kremlin conferences in Russia in 2013 and 2015, while the Stop The War coalition, who Jeremy Corbyn has supported, have consistently demonstrated views highly sympathetic toward Russia.

16 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Upcoming Publications

Myths and Misunderstandings: Understanding Opposition to the Prevent Strategy Myths and Rupert Sutton Misunderstandings: The policies adopted by the UK Government to challenge extremism have Understanding Opposition to had a long development period, and since 2015 public sector bodies The Prevent Strategy such as schools, universities, prisons and NHS trusts have had a legal responsibility to have an awareness and understanding of the risks posed Centre for the Response to Radicalisation and Terrorism by radicalisation, and to ensure that their staff understand the processes Policy Paper No. 7 (2016) around radicalisation. Referred to as the Prevent Duty, this aims to identify

Rupert Sutton and support individuals before they commit criminal offences or do harm The Henry Jackson Society September 2016 to themselves or others. Despite this aim, as well as the clear threat from home-grown violent extremism in the UK, a well organised campaign to undermine Prevent has developed in recent years and has intensified since the Prevent Duty has come into force. Developed and promoted by extremist groups, this campaign has since been joined by civil rights activists, union staff from sectors subject to the Prevent Duty, and students.

The report examines the development of the Prevent Duty and outlines the policies and services which have been put in place to ensure those at risk of radicalisation get the support they need. It then examines the narrative of the anti-Prevent campaign, addressing the myths and misunderstandings which have grown up around the duty and breaking the criticisms down into a number of themes which are used to make misleading attacks on the policy, including accusations that anti- Muslim prejudice are an inherent part of Prevent, that the strategy chills off freedom of expression and political activism, and that it will see sector staff forced to spy on individuals within their care or using their services. It also highlights the spreading of false or exaggerated stories of referrals and the exploitation of a lack of knowledge about Prevent processes, and seeks to debunk many of the existing myths. The report’s findings make it clear an organised campaign to undermine the Prevent Duty does exist, and highlights the importance of providing practitioners with the tools necessary to rebut the claims made by those who oppose efforts to challenge radicalisation in the UK.

Turkey’s Regional Posture After Dealing With Ahrar al-Sham the Arab Spring Kyle Orton Kyle Orton This report explores Ahrar al-Sham, one of the most powerful Since 2011, Turkey has re-emerged as a major player in the Syrian rebel groups. It has not accepted the Free Syrian Middle East, especially in Syria. Although a member of NATO, Army label or claimed to be secular, instead using Salafist Ankara’s policies have not always aligned with the West’s; rhetoric and symbolism from the start of the uprising. The Turkey’s choice of allies and proxies in Syria has been deeply organisation enjoys heavy support from Turkey and Qatar. troubling, as has its insistence on maintaining an open border A growing number of people in the West have advocated to refugees coming into Turkey and for insurgents moving out at least tactical support for Ahrar, which in self-presentation of Turkey and into Syria, which was taken advantage of by is a solely Syrian-focused group, as a counter-weight to jihadists joining al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, both of which the Assad regime, the Islamic State, and al-Qaeda. This set up robust networks on Turkish soil. The internal evolution position is deeply problematic. Ahrar has senior leaders of Turkey away from secularism and toward an authoritarian tied into al-Qaeda’s network and it has maintained a close Islamist model has also been a cause for alarm. This paper battlefield alliance with al-Qaeda in Syria that allowed examines Turkey’s region-wide role during the Arab Spring, al-Qaeda to survive the schism with the Islamic State and and the potential steps that might be taken to reconcile with to thrive thereafter. Ahrar’s very nature is in question and a government in Turkey that is increasingly distant from the the prospects for getting it to separate from al-Qaeda Western orbit. seem dim.

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 17 Upcoming Publications

Islamic State’s Sinai Province Tom Wilson

This upcoming policy paper will provide an investigation into the rise of Salafist Jihadist groups in the Sinai Peninsula, their allegiance to Islamic State and the extent of their collaboration with Islamist groups in Gaza, including Hamas.

The paper will outline how the Islamic State’s increased presence in the Sinai was aided by securing the allegiance of the formerly al-Qaeda aligned Ansar Bayt al- Maqdis (ABM). ABM had already established itself as one of the most formidable of the local militant groups operating against Egyptian forces in the Sinai, while also carrying out sporadic attacks on Israeli targets. Following the group’s pledge allegiance to al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State in 2014 there was a dramatic increase in the ambition and sophistication of the group’s attacks.

As the report outlines, significant intelligence exists to suggest that just as ABM maintained links with militants in Gaza, so the Islamic State’s Sinai Province is also believed to be collaborating with the military wing of Hamas. Both the Egyptian and Israeli militaries have been acting to try and disrupt the cooperation between the two Islamist factions. While in recent months the Egyptian army may have been gaining the upper hand against Islamic State, the group remains resilient.

Saudi Funding in British Mosques Tom Wilson

For over a decade now, there have been serious concerns about how foreign funding is being used to promote an intolerant and hardline Wahabi interpretation of Islam in Britain. Yet there has been little progress on how to approach this challenge at the policy level. The Centre for the New Middle East at The Henry Jackson Society is currently undertaking research into the nature of this threat and how other Western countries are using the law to prevent non-violent extremism from being advanced by foreign funding.

The publication of HJS research into this area will be accompanied by a full parliamentary programme putting this issue on the agenda of MPs. As part of an ongoing project on the challenge of Saudi funding HJS will work with policy makers to help devise the most effective response for countering the promotion of non-violent extremism in British Mosques and religious institutions.

18 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review Upcoming Events

Global Inequality: a New Approach The Power of the People: How for the Age for Globalisation Non-violent Revolutions Work Branko Milanovic, Visiting Presidential Professor at City University In October, The Henry Jackson Society will be hosting of New York, will address The Henry Jackson Society on his Srdja Popovic. Popovic was one of the founders of new book Global Inequality: a New Approach for the Age of Otpor! (Resistance!), a non-violent Serbian movement that Globalisation. Inequality among nations has fallen, as middle contributed to the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. class incomes in the developing world catch up with the largely Otpor! successfully married youth culture, rock music and stagnant incomes in the developed world. In his book, Milanovic humour with more traditional protest methods. Since then, makes the case that changes in inequality are cyclical – they he has been in demand. His NGO, Centre for Applied are often the result of disease, changing patterns of access to Non-violent Action and Strategies (CANVAS), has advised education, and war - and that the recent surge in intra-nation and trained pro-democracy activists in over fifty countries, inequality is due to a technological revolution, much as the including Iran, Burma and Ukraine. Popovic will speak on the industrial revolution led to an increase in inequality. mechanics of successful, peaceful protest.

A Fork in the Road: Looking Ahead at US Foreign Policy under Trump or Clinton

Like no other in recent memory, the forthcoming US election represents a potentially epochal change. It takes place within a challenging dynamic of social change in the US and geopolitical change globally that is unprecedented in recent history. In terms of American foreign policy, it is commonplace to say that Trump represents a leap into the unknown while Clinton represents a continued pragmatic policy based on the extant rules-based international order. But how accurate is this on either count? Dee Smith, CEO of the Strategic Insight Group, will explore this question at a meeting of The Henry Jackson Society in October.

Worth Dying For – The Power and Politics of Flags

We wave flags, we burn them, they fly outside parliaments and palaces. And in an era when the politics of identity – be that local, regional, national, ethnic, cultural or religious identity – is on the rise, people are increasingly searching for familiar symbols as ideological anchors. Tim Marshall will address The Henry Jackson Society in October on his new book, Worth Dying For: The Power and Politics of Flags. Marshall is the bestselling author of Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps that Tell You Everything You Need to Know about Global Politics.

Quarterly Review Autumn 2016 19 Supporting HJS

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20 Autumn 2016 Quarterly Review