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Maxis Berhad 19 May 2021 Company Update RM4.70 @ 18 May 2021 “With a broadened customer base Maxis Berhad (MAXIS MK) and an exciting product offering, Maxis is well positioned to adapt HOLD (maintain) Price Target: RM5.00 to changes in the telco market” Up/Downside: 6.4% Previous Target (Rating): RM5.00 (HOLD) Share price performance Holding up just fine (RM) Maxis continues to gain mobile market share. While the lower-priced 6.00 products and expansion into the mass-market segments have diluted 5.50 Maxis’ ARPU, the net impact to service revenue is still positive 5.00 4.50 Revenue from the enterprise and home fibre segments are trending up well 4.00 and Maxis remains steadfast on its MAX strategy. The group is, in our view, 3.50 well positioned to adapt to the fast-changing telco market 3.00 2.50 We forecast Maxis’ EPS to grow by 4-5% pa in 2021-23 driven by a gradual 2.00 recovery in mobile service revenue and higher enterprise / home fibre Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 contributions. At 24x 2022E PER, valuation looks fair to us. Maintain HOLD. 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 0.0 0.9 -11.1 Competition in the mobile market is stiff, but rational Rel KLCI (%) 1.1 -0.1 -21.2 Maxis in 2019 had overtaken Digi as the market leader by number of subscribers. Its Hotlink Postpaid products, Hotlink Prepaid Unlimited and an aggressive push into the BUY HOLD SELL previous underserved segments (B40, students, foreign workers) have lifted the Consensus 4 15 4 number of subscribers. Some competitors have since launched their own prepaid Source: Bloomberg unlimited packages. After assessing the offerings and packages in the markets, we Stock Data believe that competition is stiff, but not irrational. Sector Telecom Enterprise and home fibre businesses continue to grow Issued shares (m) 7,823.2 The enterprise segment contributed RM128-154m of revenue per quarter during Mkt cap (RMm)/(US$m) 36,769/8,915 1Q20-1Q21, a notable increase from RM70m during 1Q18-2Q19. Management Avg daily vol - 6mth (m) 1.8 remains positive on the enterprise business outlook. While the competition is rising, 52-wk range (RM) 4.45-5.59 Est free float 12.3% Maxis believe its 3-year head-start and extensive product offerings give the group a Stock Beta 0.76 strong competitive advantage over some peers. Elsewhere, the home fibre business Net cash/(debt) (RMm) (9,127) and wireless broadband (WBB) is trending up positively, driven by robust underlying ROE (CY21E) 20.4% demand and modest competition. Derivatives No Shariah Compliant Yes Management stick to the MAX strategy, and we maintain our HOLD rating Amid the challenges and opportunities brought forth by a number of events (Covid- Key Shareholders 19 pandemic, Jaringan PRIHTAIN programme, JENDELA, 5G SPV, potential Celcom-Digi merger), management remains steadfast on its MAX strategy. With a BGSM Equity 62.3% widened customer base and broadened product offerings, Maxis is well-positioned EPF 12.0% PNB 10.1% to adapt to changes. All in, we forecast Maxis to register 4-5% earnings growth in Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg 2021-23 driven by a recovery in mobile service revenue and higher enterprise / home fibre revenue. At 24x 2022E PER, Maxis now trades below its 7-year average PER of 27x, which looks fair to us, considering the weak economic backdrop. Earnings & Valuation Summary FYE 31 Dec 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Isaac Chow Revenue (RMm) 9,313.0 8,965.0 9,329.9 9,588.7 9,881.3 EBITDA (RMm) 3,833.0 3,727.0 3,785.1 3,894.0 3,996.7 T (603) 2146 7536 Pretax profit (RMm) 2,027.0 1,852.0 1,893.6 1,990.5 2,086.5 E [email protected] Net profit (RMm) 1,512.0 1,382.0 1,439.1 1,512.8 1,585.7 EPS (sen) 19.3 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.3 PER (x) 24.3 26.6 25.5 24.3 23.2 Core net profit (RMm) 1,493.0 1,378.0 1,439.1 1,512.8 1,585.7 Core EPS (sen) 19.1 17.6 18.4 19.3 20.3 Core EPS growth (%) (15.6) (7.7) 4.4 5.1 4.8 Core PER (x) 24.6 26.7 25.5 24.3 23.2 Net DPS (sen) 20.0 17.0 18.4 19.3 20.0 Dividend Yield (%) 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 EV/EBITDA 12.2 12.5 12.3 11.9 11.6 Chg in EPS (%) - - - Affin/Consensus (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Affin Hwang forecasts Competition in the mobile segment is stiff but rational In 2019, Maxis passed Digi to become the largest mobile player by no of subs Maxis had in 2019 overtaken Digi as Malaysia’s mobile market leader by number of subscribers with a market share of 28% (Fig 11). Today, Maxis commands the largest market share in the postpaid segment and has the 2nd highest share in the prepaid market, where Digi remains the market leader. In the postpaid segment, Maxis has been continuously growing the no of subs Maxis has recorded Capitalizing on the prepaid-to-postpaid migration trend, Maxis has recorded continuous growth in the continuous growth in the number of postpaid subscribers since 4Q16 (Fig 1, except number of postpaid 2Q20). The group has been able to strengthen its position as the market leader in subs, partly attributable the postpaid segment by offering various competitive packages such as the entry- to good take-up for the level Hotlink Postpaid Flex (launched in Feb 2018) while maintaining good network Hotlink Postpaid Flex quality and customer service. Elsewhere, the increase in number of corporate clients due to Maxis’ strong push into the enterprise segment has also contributed to the growth in number of postpaid subscribers. In the prepaid segment, Maxis has pushed into the previously underserved market segments Broadly, the three top mobile operators have all reported declining numbers of prepaid subscribers in the recent years due to the migration to the postpaid segment, as well as the decrease in number of foreign workers. The prepaid-to-postpaid migration was attributable to strong demand for data, subsidized smartphones with low upfront fees, as well as the introduction of entry-level postpaid packages. Under the leadership of Maxis has fared relatively well vis-à-vis its competitors during the recent quarters new senior management, (2018-to-present) due to management’s strategy to push into the previously Maxis has placed a underserved market segments. Under the leadership of new senior management greater emphasis on the (Mr. Gokhan Ogut was appointed as Maxis COO effective September 2018 before previously underserved his promotion to CEO in May 2019; Mr. Norman Wayne Treeby was appointed as market segments (ie, B40 Maxis CFO in May 2018), Maxis has put a stronger focus on the mass market (B40 group, students, foreign group, students, foreign workers) which they previously underserved. workers) Maxis has expanded its marketing efforts, distribution channels and product offerings to target these segments and as a result, the group has gained some prepaid market shares from its competitors. Importantly, management believe that these segments will generate positive cash flow without jeopardizing its service quality and brand imagine. Fig 1: Maxis has recorded continuous growth in postpaid subs, Fig 2: Maxis has fared relatively well vis-à-vis its competitors except 2Q20 due to a stringent lockdown during the recent quarters '000 Postpaid Net Adds '000 Prepaid Net Adds 200 600 Celcom Digi Maxis Celcom Digi Maxis 150 400 200 100 - 50 (200) - (400) (50) (600) (100) (800) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q17 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 4Q19 2Q20 4Q20 1Q21 1Q18 4Q18 2Q19 1Q20 3Q20 3Q17 Source: Company data, Affin Hwang Source: Company data, Affin Hwang We do not expect significant down trading, but the Hotlink Postpaid entry level packages should continue to dilute the postpaid ARPU Maxis’ postpaid ARPU has declined noticeably during the recent years (Fig 3) due to the adoption of MFRS15 effective 2018, lower wholesale revenue following the 2 termination of its 3G network sharing agreement with U-Mobile in Dec-2018 (the Looking ahead, we agreement contributed to c.RM100m per quarter during 2018), cut in Mobile anticipate Maxis’ Termination Rate, decline in roaming revenue during the recent lockdowns and postpaid APRU to dilution from the Hotlink Postpaid entry-level packages. Looking ahead, we anticipate decline at a slower pace Maxis’ postpaid ARPU to decline at a slower pace due to the dilution of Hotlink Postpaid plans (RM40/month for 16GB or RM60/month for 30GB with device), to be cushioned by higher roaming revenue when the borders reopen in 2022. Fig 3: Maxis’ postpaid ARPU has declined over the years due to Fig 4: Maxis’ mobile service revenue has been slipping during adoption of MFRS15, lower wholesale revenue from U-Mobile and 2020-1Q21 due to lower roaming revenue and decline in MTR; dilution from its Hotlink Postpaid entry level packages looking ahead, we expect its revenue to recover gradually ARPUs RMm Mobile Service Revenue RM 2,500 Celcom (Postpaid) Digi (Postpaid) Maxis (Postpaid) Celcom Digi Maxis 120 Celcom (Prepaid) Digi (Prepaid) Maxis (Prepaid) 2,000 100 80 1,500 60 1,000 40 500 20 - - 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 Source: Company Data, Affin Hwang Source: Company Data, Affin Hwang Competition in the mobile segment is stiff, but not irrational Assessing the various offerings and packages in the markets, we view the In the prepaid segment, Maxis and some of its competition as stiff, but not irrational.
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