The Numbers Behind the US Presidential Election
Molly O’Rourke, Partner, Hart Research September & October 2020 surprises (so far)
9/18 9/23 9/27 9/29 10/2 Justice Ruth Bader Officers not NYT Trump Tax Raucous Presidential President Tests Ginsburg dies charged in death of Story Breaks Debate Positive for COVID Breonna Taylor
10/5 10/7 10/9 10/12 President released Vice Presidential Second Presidential Amy Coney Barrett from Reed Hospital Debate Debate Cancelled confirmation hearings begin Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 2 Right Direction/Wrong Track—U.S. Historical Trend
Yearly Averages
GHW Bush Clinton GW Bush Obama Trump 70% 65% 65% 64% 65% 63% 65%63% 63% 60% 59% 60% 57% 54% 56% 55% 50% 54% 50% 51% 48% 46% 49% 49% 48% 45% 44% 47%47% 46% 42% 40%
40% 41% 40% 37% 39% 37% 35% 37% 35% 37% 35% 35% 34% 35% 33% 32% 33% 32% 32% 30% 29% 29% 28% 28% 28% 28% 26% 26% 27% 23% 20% 16%
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nation is headed in the right direction Nation is off on the wrong track
Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, Mid‐October 2020 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 3 Mood of the Country’s Impact on Presidential Elections
Right Party Change in Year Direction White House
1980* 20% Yes
1992 20% Yes
2008 16% Yes
2020 28% ?
Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, Mid‐October 2020 *1980 Data From The Roper Organization, February 1980 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 National polls show Biden’s lead growing.
Real Clear Politics Poll Average - General Election 2020
Biden Trump 55.0
53.0 52.1 52.1 51.2 2008 50.6 50.6 51.0 50.1 50.2 50.1 50.3 49.6 49.5 49.6 49.42012 49.7 49.7 49.4 49.8 49.0 49.3 48.9 2016 48.4 49.0
47.0
45.0
43.0 42.8 42.8 42.9 42.9 42.8 42.5 42.4 42.5 42.3 42.5 41.0 42.0 42.0 41.8 41.8 41.7 41.4 41.3 40.9 40.7 39.0 40.3 40.2
37.0
35.0 31-May07-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 05-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 02-Aug09-Aug16-Aug23-Aug30-Aug06-Sep13-Sep20-Sep27-Sep 04-Oct 11-Oct 20-Oct
Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 5 Where the Race Will Be Decided: the battleground states of 2016 will be determinative in 2020.
270 to Win: Trump can lose 36 electoral votes & still win NET RCP* CLINTON TRUMP Trump in AVG as STATE 2016 EVs of 10/14 232 270 TO WIN 306 ME -2.96% 3 +12.8 NV -2.42% 6 +6.0
WA ME CD2 12 NH 1 VT 4 ME MN -1.52% 10 +9.0 MT ND 3 3 3 3 OR MN 7 10 WII NY NH -.37% 4 +8.7 ID MA 11 SD 10 MI 29 4 RI 4 WY 3 16 3 CT 7 IA PA MI .23% 16 +7.0 NE 6 20 NJ 14 NV OH DE 3 UT 5 6 IL IN 18 MD 10 6 CO 20 11 WV DC 3 CA VA PA .72% 20 +7.1 9 KS 5 55 MO KY 13 6 10 8 NC AZ TN 15 WI .77% 10 +6.1 11 OK 11 SC NM 7 AR 9 5 6 MS AL GA FL 1.20% 29 +3.7 6 9 16 TX LA86 38 AZ 3.55% 11 +2.7 AK 3 FL 29 NC 3.68% 15 +1.4
hi *538/Real Clear Politics average 4 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 6 Trump appears to be losing momentum among key voting blocs.
Trump voters Biden voters
White men Upper/ Suburban Men age Voters without Age 65/older non-college well-to-do women 50/older college degrees
+4 +27 +38 +19 +2 +19 +9 +25 +13 +1 +6 +19 BIDEN BIDEN DJT DJT BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN DJT BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN
66% 62% 59% 58% 55% 55% 56% 52% 50% 48% 48% 49% 46% 46% 47% 43% 43% 40% 42% 36% 37% 35% 33% 28%
Sept Oct Sept Oct Sept Oct Sept Oct Sept Oct Sept Oct
Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, September‐OctoberAssessing 2020 the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 7 Voters’ Assessment of Trump & Biden on Top Issues
48% Economy 41% +7 TRUMP
41% Crime/violence 45% +4 BIDEN
41% Good mental/physical health 41% +1 BIDEN
40% Strong leadership 45% +5 BIDEN
37% Supreme Court appointments 46% +9 BIDEN
35% Dealing with COVID 52% +17 BIDEN
34% Healthcare 53% +19 BIDEN
26% Race relations 55% +29 BIDEN 25% Women’s issues 56% +31 BIDEN
26% Temperament 58% +32 BIDEN
Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, September‐October 2020 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 8 Polarized America: Voters have different agendas for the country.
All voters Trump voters Biden voters Top voting issue The Economy 44% 68% 23% Healthcare 29% 16% 38% Coronavirus 27% 9% 42% Race Relations 21% 7% 33% Crime and Violence 17% 30% 6% Climate Change 15% 1% 27% Abortion 11% 18% 6% Immigration 10% 16% 6% Guns 10% 22% 2%
Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, Mid‐October 2020 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 Trump cannot afford for the election to center on coronavirus.
Trump’s Handling of Coronavirus Just 22% say the U.S. has Approve Disapprove coronavirus completely or mostly under control, 78% say it is somewhat or not at all under control. 59% 58% 55% 57% 57% 51% 52%
45% 44% 43% Almost half of voters (48%) 40% 40% 41% 37% say they don’t trust at all what President Trump says about the coronavirus, just 19% trust him a great deal.
Data source: Washington Post poll, October 2020
March April 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August September October 2020 2020 2020 2020 Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, Mid‐October 2020 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 Instead, a Trump victory depends on focusing on the economy. Trump’s Handling of the Economy
Approve Disapprove
54% 53% 52% 51% 51% 51% 50% 50% 49% 48% 46% 42% 48% 41% 46% 46% 44% 44% 45% 43% 41% 42% 38% 37% 36% 34%
Apr. Jun. Sep. Oct. 2017 Jul. 2018 Jan. May 2019 Aug. Oct. 2019 Feb. Jul. Sep. 2020*Oct. 2020* 2017 2017 2017 2019 2019 2020 2020 Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, July 2020 *Real Clear Politics Poll Average: Trump Job Approval for Economy Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 Engagement & perceived consequences are at all‐time highs.
Interest in Election % of registered voters who say… High Interest September/October It really matters who wins the presidential election of Election Year* Things will be pretty much the same regardless of who is elected 81% 79% 83% 78% 2012 2016 74% 67% 63% 63%
72% 50%
68% 44%
32% 34% 29% 22% 16%
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Data Source: NBC‐WSJ poll, September‐October 2020 Data Source: Pew Research poll, July‐August 2020 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 12 What to Expect on Election Night
• More than 28 million early votes have already been cast (5x more than were cast early in Plan to Vote in Plan to Vote in Vote by Mail / 2016). 2008 Person on 11/3 Person Early Absentee 2012 In swing states with party 2016 registration (e.g. Fl, NC, Pa), 33% of Voters 21% of Voters 39% of Voters preliminary counts show returns from Democrats outnumber Republicans by 50% of Trump supporters 20% of Trump supporters 25% of Trump supporters 20% of Biden supporters 22% of Biden supporters 51% of Biden supporters about 2:1. (But that is short of some Democrats’ goals.) TRUMP BIDEN BIDEN Some key states (e.g. +32 +15 +42 Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) do not start counting absentee ballots until Election Day.
Data Source: Pew Research poll, September‐October 2020 Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 13 As 2016 demonstrated, national polls are not determinative or predictive.
State polls in key battleground states were scarce and often poor quality. 2008 Polls underestimated the turnout of white2012 2016 non-college-educated voters, especially in the Midwest. Undecided voters broke strongly for Trump in the final week of the campaign. The October surprise: The Comey letter There is an important difference between measuring and handicapping!
Assessing the 2020 Presidential Election –October 20, 2020 14