Commitment to long term strategy Trond Westlie, EVP and CFO of Telenor 20 November 2008
Commitment to long term strategy
• Deliver growth above peers • Execute on operational excellence • Leverage on core assets to develop new services • Explore expansion opportunities Norway Russia Telenor Mobil Executed on control or exit VimpelCom Bangladesh Russia GrameenPhone Extel
Malaysia Russia DiGi StavTeleSot Portugal Hungary OniWay Pannon Greece Ukraine Cosmote Kyivstar Austria Denmark One Sonofon Thailand Montenegro DTAC ProMonte Montenegro Pakistan ProMonte Telenor Pakistan Denmark Thailand Sonofon DTAC Ukraine Sweden Kyivstar Telenor Sweden Hungary Serbia Pannon Telenor Serbia Malaysia DiGi
India Germany Unitech Wireless Viag
Ireland Majority owned Esat companies
Minority positions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Solid underlying trend in revenues and EBITDA
Revenues (NOKm)/ EBITDA (NOKm)/EBITDA% Organic revenue growth (%)
27 620 10 033 27 178 26 914 9 483 26 551 26 292 9 230 9 317 26 285 9 254 8 790 8 831 25 270
14 % 14 % 12 % 12 % 35 % 35 % 36 % 35 % 36 % 33 % 34 %
7 % 7 %
4 %
Q107 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q107 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q 4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
All figures including Kyivstar. Organic revenue growth in fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA and EBITDA margin before other items Managing capex levels and improving cash flow
Capex (NOKm) / Capex/sales (%) Operating cash flow (NOKm)
412 6 672 6 032
1550
5 275 5 233 5 089 4 481 4 836 4 303 4 208 4 141 4 487 4 021 4 001
2 159 25 % 20 % 20 % 19 % 17 % 18 % 14 %
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
L icenc e fees
O the r ca pex
All figures including Kyivstar. Capex/sales ratio ex cluding licence fees Ope rating cash flow including Kyivstar and ex cluding licence fees Operating cash flow defined as EBITDA before other items - capex
Q3 2008 Capex driven by subscriber growth
Nordic
9 % 9 % 8 % Asia
41 % Q306 Q307 Q308 38 %
24% of mobile capex 21 %
3% of subs growth
CEE Q306 Q307 Q308 50% of mobile capex 22 % 14 % 11 % 83% of subs growth
Q306 Q307 Q308
26% of mobile capex
14% of subs growth Mobile capex . Kyivstar include d Graphs showing mobile capex/sales ratio Q3 2008 – Nordic operations Maintaining market position and margins
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
3 740 3 620 3 398 3 249 • Retail revenue growth of 3% in Mobile Norway - 5% - 4% • Price and volume reductions offset by 38 % 38 % cost improvements in Fixed Norway 36 % 36 %
• Restructuring organization in Sweden Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 07 Q3 08 to ensure efficiency Mobile No rway Fixed No rway • EBITDA margin improvement from previous quarters in Denmark 2 473 2 370 1 866 1 872 - 4% - 4% • 15% revenue growth in Broadcast 25 % 25 %
22 % 24 %
Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 07 Q3 08 Sweden Denma rk
Organic revenue growth YoY
Nordic operations - ambition and priorities
• Increase cost efficiency in all operations • Improve market position in Sweden Mid term OCF target • Implement a diversified fibre strategy 10 bn • Capture growth in mobile broadband Q3 2008 - CEE Strong cash flow from all operations
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
3 839 3 427
• 9% ARPU growth in local currency +13% +0%
and operating cash flow of NOK 1 541 1 656 1.9 bn in Kyivstar 59 % 62 % 43 % 43 % • Stable organic revenues in Pannon
despite lower IC and roaming Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 07 Q3 08 revenues Kyivst ar Pannon
861 • Margin expansion in Serbia due to 804 cost control and lower sales and marketing activities +2% - 8%
• Revenue decline driven by lower 254 236 47 % roaming revenues and 3% usage 35 % 52 % 50 % drop in Promonte Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 07 Q3 08
Telenor Serbia Promont e Organic revenue growth YoY
Q3 2008 - Asia Weak macro and increased competition
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA% • Declining consumer confidence 2 981 impacting usage in Thailand 2 655 1 849 1 963 + 2% • Increased market activities in + 10%
Malaysia, preparing for MNP 47 % 43 % • Performance in Pakistan impacted 30 % 30 % by challenging market conditions and business environment Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 07 Q3 08 DTA C DiGi • Lower sales and advertising costs 1 170 1 175 7% improving margin in Grameenphone + + 30% 48% 887 869 49 % 36 % 1 7 % 11 %
Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 07 Q3 08
Grameenphone Telenor Pakistan
Organic revenue growth YoY telenorcs\Capital Markets Day\2002\Cap Market Day Presentations\Mobile\Mobile - DRAFT 15 April- 24.11.2008 09:50 2003.ppt 11
Entering India through a controlling stake in Unitech Wireless
• Telenor to inject USD 1,070 million of new equity into Unitech Wireless in multiple tranches to reach 60% stake by end of September 2009 • Enterprise value of Unitech Wireless USD 1,100 million pre-money • Telenor gets management control from day 1, and will occupy 4 of 7 seats on the Board of Directors • Expected closing by the end of 2008 Unitech Wireless
• Founded in 2007 by Unitech Group, the second largest real estate group in India • Greenfield mobile operator with a pan- Indian UAS licence and spectrum in 13 circles – Spectrum in remaining 9 circles expected to be in place during the next 12 months • Team of 250 employees in place • Key executives with significant telecom operating experience
Strategic rationale
• Solid contribution to Telenor’s growth and long term industrial development • Strong fit with communicated expansion strategy • Unique opportunity to enter one of the world’s largest and fastest growing mobile markets • Leverage on Telenor’s proven greenfield expertise • Attractive business case Unitech Wireless business case
• Service launch mid 2009 • Instant access to 30,000 – 50,000 existing sites through tower sharing agreements • Accumulated capex of USD 2 bn first three years • EBITDA breakeven in approx 3 years from launch
Long term ambition
• > 8% market share • 30% EBITDA margin • 20% operating cash flow margin
Note: Business case does not include 3G
Unitech Wireless - Impact on Telenor’s financials in 2009-2010
• Capex/sales ratio in the high twenties in 2009 and low twenties in 2010 • Operating cash flow dilution of approx 90% in 2009 and 40% in 2010
Including Kyivstar. Operating cash flow: EBITDA - capex Summary
• Executing on long term strategy • Solid underlying cash flow trend in existing operations • Capex adjustable to economic environment • Leverage on Telenor’s proven greenfield expertise through entry into India
Commitment to long term strategy Trond Westlie, EVP and CFO of Telenor 20 November 2008