MayMay 20152015 11:30 11.15 11:00 10.30 09:30 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern andCentralAfrican Region - - - - - 11.30 12:00 10:30 11:15 11.00 Discussion Update regional impact Update refugeeon Burundian Tea/Coffee nutrition climate,prices, conditions, hotspots, Foodsecurity Situation Analysis &Outlook: on statusrestructuring of FSNWG the , IDPS and IDPS Break refugees situation situation and potential Venue: Institute Studies forSecurity Co ACF, ICPAC, IPC, UNHCR, - Chair: Chair: & IGAD FAO, FEWSNET, May 201521, UNICEF, UNOCHA EAUNOCHA IGAD/ICPAC UNOCHA Agenda WFP, FAO All May 2015 Ethiopia, and KenyaSudan with an 19M estimated people in need humanitarian of assistance. assistance. TheMarch Food security situation a remains concern in ofparts DRC,South CAR, Sudan, Current RegionalConditions: Highlights - May is rains likelyto alleviate the situation in some areas. • • • • • Sudan, Minimal Djibouti, however Somalia, livestock The Djibouti production South agricultural several Favourable improvement southern CAR Conflicts/political Somalia districts South mostly Crisis (IPC northern Uganda, rains Phase and and Sudan, Sudan, western areas in ; Eritrea could in remain Somalia Somalia, food will condition western Karamoja emergency production DRC, eastern 2 Karamoja, in March . ) further across be in Kenya, parts Ethiopia and insecurity precarious & most affected may CAR - central May Rwanda tension northern Kenya, in support DRC of the and food pastoral Burundi, in pose pastoral NE Darfur and south/central rains and region ; by Ethiopia, insecurity in (IPC Kenya Kenya, and rangeland Somalia challenges and southwest below in conflict pastoral vegetable areas have Rwanda in South and areas Phase rebel . Burundi Sudan, - average agricultural NE ; The will - . remains affected been Somalia, areas regeneration Sudan, . of Ethiopia, to insurgency be South However, 1 production situation ) food but south/central IDP beneficial rains received in of a states Ethiopia, stressed Uganda, Burundi, areas parts concern security sites Sudan, . some Belg and will of of of to in in in in May 2015 Food hassecurityin deteriorated manypartssinceMarch 2015. Previousvscurrent conditions May 2015 Minor improvementsin food securityconditions in specific locations compared Sudan, ofparts NEand Karamoja Kenya, ofparts Ethiopia. 2014 IMPROVED: Djibouti, Northern Somalia, KenyaSE SAME:DRC,CAR, Uganda, Rwanda, western & central Ethiopia DETERIORATED:South Sudan, Ethiopia (south ¢ral), NEKenya, Karamoja &Darfur but remains of concern great in conflict DRC, CAR, May VsConditions 2014 May 2014 Current Conditions Conditions Current - affected affected of states South May 2015 to May May 2015 in in livestock. for resources rangeland regenerate BUT 2015, mayAugust rains harvest next until lean season the during is persist likely to in Karamoja Food insecurity herders impacting livestock and Kenya anticipated increased In Market price analysis bimodal sorghum and . access terms between with South . areas, increased In of to Sudan March Karamoja, food trade staple demand CurrentConditions for for and are maize, poor the food February, from negatively livestock reduced beans, prices local, as • Uganda • • • • Above Above average and continued 2014). Kiryandongo improved refugee in settlements except Adjumani and season in May/June. levels willlikely be acute most during the peak of the lean update: Malnutrition needs. and many households are unable to meet minimum food 2014 production have eroded coping capacity among the poor The usual. the harvest occurs, as late as August, four months longer than January. Food security isexpected become to more acute until food availability and access since lean season started in April Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes settlements. yields the dryfor in harvests will retard, delay and reduce green harvests and potential Below west and central Uganda. likely result in a near combination of of combination extended last year’s lean season and poor among among poor households in Karamoja - average FEWSNET but but remains concern a in Karamoja (12.8% Dec rainfall rainfall expected is – Uganda - GAM rates are reported rates GAM are reported to have average harvest, except parts in of south Consumption Consumption gaps and malnutrition Karamoja Karamoja and amongst refugee rainfall rainfall in bimodal areas will have been observed since to last through to through last July due to declining declining to which May 2015 to to the 6.0 percent rate from February. percent an at annualized rate, similar Food price inflation in March was 6.3 are purchasing food from markets. Meher stocks the to from October January households are drawing down their prices started from March to April as Seasonal increase of staple food Market price analysis Below harvest and harvestand households more - average Belg CurrentConditions rainfall led to low area planted deterioration in food and nutrition security. • Ethiopia • • • • • • Stressed Stressed and crisis conditions in pastoral most areas; with areas areas have seen increased TFP admissions since March. Somali, and deteriorating food security. Areas above critical levels are Afar, Increasing rates of rangeland and water resources. Belg Food security likely in to persist/deteriorate pastoral areas if May. Staple food prices are seasonally high. unlikely recover to due to expected below income and low milk production. Amhara, Afar, Tigray,SNNPR leading poor to livestock condition Pasture and water unavailability some in pastoral areas: Oromia, July September.to Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), and eastern and central Oromia from eastern Amhara and Tigray, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Food labor is very except in south and southeastern parts. Implications: area Late onset and below deterioration in southern Afar, central Oromia and part of SNNPR. / Diraac demand. security FEWS NET FEWS low, crops from from livestock sales and livestock product are low and Benishangul / Sugum likely to deteriorate . Some pastoral areas maysee further are not performing are not performing well. malnutrition / Gu - Gumuz - – average March rains rains are insufficient to regenerate Ethiopia and due due to performancepoor seasonal Gambella in the in the - May seasonal May seasonal performance Belg - low average rainfall through regions whose drier - producing areas in production production and low planted planted May 2015 Food securityto persist during lean season but agriculture activities and rangeland regeneration for livestock. Livestock prices to started seasonally Staple food prices are stable except in Market Price Analysis and and northwestern markets. increase in southern, most central, expected remain to high. controlled towns,food prices are where they are high. rebel In middle Shabelle and and middle Juba Current Conditions - • SOMALIA • • • • The and availability, and Favourable middle The off availability/agricultural zones limited lean Deterioration harvest people and regions. Central as hotspots acute for malnutrition in South region as well livelihoods as of (pastoral, identified Bay Malnutrition update: The - season milk 4 most number season Puntland, ) in has Shabelle, January/February to starts availability Gu Middle FEWS NET /FSNAU remain food agropastoral harvest increased supporting Gu in of . rains rains likelyto improve the situation thru on – Agropastoral insecure agro rains people and food and lower Somalia Stressed in . pastoral March to Lower is security have labor recovery Juba in and and riverine), people 1 likely Deyr Deyr million Crisis (IPC , all livelihoods of been income and regions Juba, areas 2014/15 2014/15 assessment had expected harvest are Hawd to Phase of likely and received, since livestock, as improve in . in from Beletweyne Emergency parts Central Central and Coastal river a ; the 2 January and ) result during until the South flooding of except in pasture Gedo thus well Bakool June of riverine the 2015 that District in (IPC reduced improving below - region Central Central in in April when and . April/May Somaliland had and 2 Phases livelihood . - 3 average to Hiraan the Deeh a million cereal Hiran water June food very Gu . 3 , May 2015 CurrentConditions stable stable though below their five livestock due to livestockfew sale. for a As result, Livestock prices increases. June, will likely lead modest to price maize from Uganda and Tanzania through increased demand but continued imports of stable between April and June due to Maize prices willtypically increase/remain Market price analysis Marginal improvement in food - to - cereal cereal terms remain somewhat have remained have remained fairly stable - year agriculture and livestock production. averages – security Kenya . • KENYA • • • • • The Mandera 10 in Baringo Marsabit malnutrition Malnutrition normal Food Narok and The some agricultural Food June) maize) most which Favourable agricultural 1 situation given prevailing long rains support for . 8 Northeastern percent million Marsabit number areas . , parts areas insecurity will WFP and security and lean are , , Kajiado Counties support Samburu, areas Laikipia most increase expected March areas of period may people, rates of update Counties, the pastoral acutely , expected FEWSNET remain . is affected Laikipia a compared and – (May country in and expected normal in May and to predominantly northwestern in number pastoral – Kitui food areas stressed be and July) cumulative ASALs are and . agropastoral to and adequate County to in Country insecure . to Wajir, of Narok slightly of July agropastoral stable areas, Wajir, or : increase children reportedly . under 2014 . pastoral in Garissa, rains until stocks Higher food remains Garissa areas pastoral increase due . crisis ‘at the have with security to areas rates (rice, risk’ areas, Isiolo high next in . and between long a been and West in in longer were , beans Isiolo in harvest situation but Wajir Mandera, rains Turkana, marginal marginal received Kajiado Pokot, stable found 1 but than . and and 6 but (in in a – , May 2015 CurrentConditions 4) likelyin Unity,Jonglei, and Upper Nile States in May. mayimprove the situation through agricultural &livestock production Deteriorating food insecurity compared to December 2014 but f • • • Market price analysis access greater and Lowest inflation reduced foods Increased purchasing stocks states Increased cereals reflecting to . in terms from Upper stocks, food prices power expenditure most in - of 5 for previous - Nile years trade . rising poor depreciating markets of regions in staple between households prices, Bahr on harvest, resulting food - and el impacting depletion - goats/sheep currency Ghazal . imported in reduced – most from South Sudan South and on of & South Sudan • • • • • • States levels (> Malnutrition pests humanitarian increase Rains livestock availability improved security Favourable affecting Continued Equatoria States Deteriorating 2015 emergency Preliminary 15 % . ) . ) . may in in (to through humanitarian products Lakes, ; conflict States commodity livestock Emergency) conflicts ; March hinder increased IPC May 2015, MayIPC 2015, 2015 Feb FSMS 3 supplies update . IPC 2 food M Eastern timely . affected (to - early others physical results insecurity Crisis) : in ; condition operations Above impact ; availability prices crop Unity May avourable March NBeG, Equatoria, under states, : compared access planting on rains ; 4 critical State . 6 in . stressed WBeG, due livestock M . hamper NBEG parts Emergency of received Western people to displacing to levels to & wild of and markets December Warrap harvests condition through water Unity transportation Warrap foods, to under of - Bahr May rains improve Malnutrition & and (IPC Phase people and & diseases Upper in 2015 el (May ; fish crisis Serious Eastern August pasture Ghazal further - food July Nile and and of & & ; May 2015 seasonal labor opportunities for the poor. trade, market activityand reduce access to DRC, Rwandaand Tanzania since April 110,000 border migration (UNHCR reports more than disrupt market activity, cause additionalcross Continued election in Burundi Impact of continued election Relatively stable FSN situation due to seasonAharvest but may deteriorate Burundianscrossed into CurrentConditions - related violenceisexpected to - related violence neighbouring ), disrupt), - Rwanda • • • • Burundi • • • stocks average following or Markets urban areas. conflicts/tensions (disrupt agriculture/livelihoodactivities and trade in likely to deteriorate due to current lean season, rising prices and harvests are expected to begin on two weeks of restored April vegetative conditions and SeasonB Heavyrainfall in late March affected area is the average staple food prices during the lean season. (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecuritydue to persistently above However, estimated an in Burundidue to average to above There is increased food availabilityand access for most households mitigated price shocks. offset reductions in staple food availabilityfrom local production and Markets: i pastoral Zones.Livelihood Subsistence Farming, Bugesera Cassava, and the East Agro The most affected areas are the East Congo NileHighland expected to improve withSeason B harvests in June. March April to earlyJune, among poor householdsdue to the poor start Food insecurityisexpected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from – declined FEWSNET - from Rwanda& Burundi May rains and poor Seasons FEWSNET . : Prices Season Staple ncreased imports of maize, beans and sorghum have Season in the are food A Plateaux first A expected harvests prices, harvests 1.3 million people quarter a mong poor (600 Humides except to but deplete increase hhs due - remain time in June. - average Season A harvests. A and B in 2014. for weredisplaced) and to Livelihood . hhs beans, increased further higher currently face Stressed and due to conflict. stabilized Food security is in Zone. than The The April food Situation is most most the and seasonably the the first availability five - May - year of of as May 2015 better better pasture and gestation. for take their herds to Ethiopia in search of diseases has prompted many households to higher than last year. livestock Seasonal Livestock camels) (goats, prices distributions were reduced in early 2014. assistance to whenmarkets general food following reductions in sale of food remains above the five sorghum flour in Ali sorghum are stable, but the price of Prices cereals for such as wheat, rice, and Market price analysis CurrentConditions Much Much delayedDirac/Sugum rains likely to limit food access during lean season. Sabieh - year average and and Dikhil are are – • Djibouti • • • • • • Djibouti Most rural areas of Djibouti Completed reported in deteriorate Malnutrition Dikhil region due to poor performance of the Dirac/ Stressed conditions may persist the in south, z The affected most areas are in in the rains. significantly delayed to the March start below regeneration and water availability, following an early end to the The deteriorating food security isdue to limited pasture assistance. between July and September despite continued humanitarian 162,000 people food insecurity. facing Minimal (IPC Phase or 1) Stressed (IPC Phase acute 2) one health and and rural in Obock region. FEWSNET - average October in centers Obock FSMS during update are are expected to be in Crisis Phase (IPC 3) . A April/May the (CFSVA bove : lean The - March critical 2014 period and and pastoral areas are nutritional and Heys ) planned as malnutrition with / well Dadaa southeast southeast - situation elevated May as IPC Diraac rains and rains and a in Tadjourah June other rates p admission is astoral astoral border Sugum currently also Soughoum 2015 regions have , and likely . rains. rains. rates been . to May 2015 has has disrupted trade kept sorghum (except in Darfur where conflict market supplies and low household demand March, in slightly decreased between February and Staple food prices either remained stable or Market price analysis CurrentConditions Escalating conflict in Darfur and South Kordofan continues to access limit to food for the poor. - line line with seasonal trends. Adequate ). – Sudan • Sudan • • • • • Malnutrition week campaign in quarter A An estimated An estimated theft caused in Widespread region. following 2014 harvests expect in pockets in Darfur Most areas are under minimal stressed or situation FS Kordofan, Blue Nile and West Kordofan. The conflict most acute food insecurity due conflict. to (IPC Phase 3) and measles North, recent . IPC OCHAIPC of of March by South, 2015 targeting years competition update outbreak tribal 1.4 1.4 . , with and . FEWSNET - million people people million affected are states Darfur, South conflict : A Emergency GAM 8 the East occurred million country over largest rates displaced Darfur natural children, - wide are (IPC Phase (IPC Phase number in since in Sudan in Sudan face Crisis 2 14 - nearly resources mass 7 % states late started of in cases 20 Darfur March, 4) immunization , levels of levels of in 000 in and reported the . the people mostly cattle first last MayMay 2015 2015 Persistent food insecurity with an estimated 6.5 million people under crisis and emergency CurrentConditions situations until June 2015. – DR CongoDR DRC • • • • except has Above to emergency 6 conditions Rest Mitwaba (Maniema), ( Emergency Province . 5 IPC Dec IPCDec 2014 June M been people - of average in 2015 and the the . Orientale) - June 2015 June received food (IPC . central Pweto expected country Shabunda March insecurity Phase (Katanga region and in - early under most to Boende 4 ) (IPC remain (Sud May food ) . parts stressed Phase - cumulative Kivu), (Equateur), insecurity under of 3 the and and crisis Manono, country in rainfall Punia 4 crisis ) and Ituri up MayMay 2015 2015 households. access to food among Marketprices continueto increase limiting Market prices analysis: CurrentConditions Reduced agricultural production in 2014 impacting negativelyduring the lean season. Conflict market - related food insecurity persists in most parts of the country. - dependent – CAR CAR • • • • • • • areas March concern Malnutrition during negatively Reduced increased October 2014 Agricultural livelihoods Bangui Fertit Deterioration situations emergency areas Preliminary situations 1 , 268 IPC, Government and FAO and GovernmentIPC, and , - and 000 early the compared . are and could . 2014 due by (agriculture, lean parts on to people agricultural April update parts under production 40 (IPC of to May ) limit agricultural season % persistent of except food . 2015 of to rainfall : agricultural Kagas crisis Phase Malnutrition under Equateur fish, . a insecurity IPC declined for normal is . forest production dependent insecurity (IPC Slight below crisis 4 analysis tubers/cassava production ) due products, is in food Phase average improvement year by still & NE . to households show 45 emergency high access . impacting insecurity region (CFSAM, etc - 50 for 3 ) . and ) % most most that and for of of in in May 2015 Population in Food Insecurity CrisisorEmergency (IPC Phase3& 4) Sudan Uganda South Sudan Somalia Kenya Ethiopia DRC Djibouti CAR Burundi Country TOTAL IPC Phase 3 & 3IPC Phase Population in 19,933,863 1,400,863 4,610,000 2,900,000 6,500,000 1,268,000 1,600000 302,000* 731,000* 162,000 460,000 4 IPC (not updated) IPC September IPC, May FSNAU 2015 April KFSSG,February HRD, IPC 2014Dec CFSVA2014 IPC April 2015 insecurecaseload) ICA Feb2014 April April 2015 January 2015 January – July 2015July Source – (recurrentfood 2014 June 2015June 2015 May 2015 Mar - 15 Change in food insecure population insecure in food Change Country TOTAL SOM UGA BUR SUD KEN ETH DJI SS Food insecure pop 13,795,000 3,700,000 3,100,000 1,600,000 2,900,000 1,300,000 302,000 731,000 162,000 May - 15 Country TOTAL SOM UGA BUR SUD KEN ETH DJI SS Food insecure pop 12,155,863 1,400,863 4,600,000 1,600,000 2,900,000 302,000 731,000 162,000 460,000 May 2015 Burundi Update 2015 Presidential planned, period Government resumed weekend, General UNICEF refugees with Kagunga report risen “extremely Living authorities taking people Kagunga treated 377 centre, with confirmed Tanzania Cholera . newly regional support sharply urgent over Makamba conditions warns for update (thru have despite : outbreak shore and out protests The there 11 arrived to severe dire” 50 elections communique in measures authorities contain from on , at been of cases 000 . : August) Burundi recent a : Following UNHCR situation the Province, Kagunga The Government watery Burundian was Burundians UNICEF in in in of reported the stadium number planned Burundi days parts in cholera Kagunga Ministry has and will spread no collaboration diarrhea said of a bordering by in and pause child IOM stepped of refugees of Nyanza dead) mention are in continue boat warning the for under and of local new Bujumbura Kigoma refugees have of to living in AWD electoral over 26 . or remove possibly Tanzania Health Nyarugusu, arrivals authorities Lac UNHCR up treatment . are with June . on The rough the become as of efforts (seven health . being foot local has has the . in in is . TOTAL DRC Rwanda Tanzania • • Humanitarian response to date: Country and Response expected Additional the assistance proposal contingency The rapidly will UNCT be for Plan to evolving Refugees ready through in has 111,703 plan rapid the - 26,000 76,520 kind 9,183 which end activated Burundian and response and support Monge Monge Monge reception centre Sange Reception Centre Kavimvira Transit centre Among host families Mahama refugee camp (new) Nyanza Reception centre Bugesera Reception Centre Ngara Kigoma Nyarugusu Camp May a is submitted uncertain under Regional District 2015 - Kagunga the influx and and Locations . development interagency emergency situation Island a in funds Refugee funding light of . is May 2015 Refugee Update • • • • • • Malnutrition rates in Ethiopia Current response by partners Djibouti (impact of Yemen crisis) Burundi refugee response South Sudan refugees Regional overview May 2015 Horn of Africa and Great Lakes Region May 2015 South Sudan situation May 2015 registered in below the age of 5. In Tanzania: refugees food In DRC: high supplementary WFP reports In Rwanda: • Burundi refugeesituation (8,750). (8,750). Rwanda protection in neighboring countries, notably in Tanzania (37,474 camp on 6 May. Following As of 11 11 As of May, an estimated energy biscuits. for 1,000 Burundian is tois introduce blanket of malnutrition,possible WFP WFP for 30 (25,455), (25,455), WFP WFP A Nyarugusu is tois distribute nutritional assessmentbeing nutritional is carriedout for children feeding and days. is due due tois starta general food distribution inMahama WFP WFP and and camp has begun has begun to provide food to families the Democratic Republic of the Congo . 71,679 Burundian Burundian refugees had sought ), ), May 2015 Djibouti (Yemen situation) • • • • currently hosted inObock, 129 persons in the the escalationof the Yemen crisis. Of these, 747 refugees are As of 7 May, 1,025 arrivalsfrom Yemen have beenregisteredsince WFP has startedgeneral food distribution. 12 with MAM (14.6%); 6 withSAM (6.1%). Nutrition screeningusing weight for height; 82 children screened; pregnant women and lactating mothers upon arrival. Malnutrition screening isongoing for under all Markazi - 5 refugee children, camp. May 2015 • • Ethiopia Malnutrition remainsabove emergency levelsin Sharp increase in number of new arrivalsinto

Number of new arrivals 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0.0% 5.0% 0 Number Number of new arrivals from South in Sudan Bokolmayo 13.7% Prevalence of acute malnutrition in Dollo Ado Gambella, Ethiopia asat 12 May 2015 Jan 2.1% - 15 1036 Melkadida 19.5% Feb 3.1% camps, March 2015 - 15 708 15.1% Kobe Mar 2.2% - 15 1174 19.9% Hilaweyn 2.9% Apr Gambella - 15 4811 Dollo Buramino 20.5% 2.7% May - 15 Ado Ado camps. 4679 SAM GAM region. May 2015 Ethiopia • • • interventions (CBIs). security WFP/UNHCR and partnersplan to scaleup provision offood micronutrient protein and rich foods. Results also indicatelimited household consumption of adequate refugees in Acute 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 0.0% 5.0% malnutritionremains above criticallevels for Sudan South - linked livelihood interventions and consider Cash 21.3% Gambella Kule Prevalence of acute malnutrition in 5.2% region (March 2015 survey results). 28.3% Tierkidi 8.6% (March 2015) GAM Gambella SAM 24.2% Pugnido 4.8% region camps, Ethiopia 10.1% Okugo 0.8% - based May 2015 MARKET AND TRADE UPDATE May 2015 Monthly pricesMarket – Maize 2015April - - - bimodal bimodal areas ( of March Tanzania: the to in supplies reduced seasonably16% by Nairobi increased prices in Mombasa, however Kenya rainfall areas. season intheunimodal March rainfall the areas and season inthebimodal the March with seasonably increase continued to Uganda: Masika markets the progression of - : Prices stable in to ) - - Eldoret season in in theseason to Maize April April lean - to delayed startdelayed - since since June - Julyrainy prices and March due May 2015 Monthly pricesMarket – Sorghum (2) 2015April reference market season progression of the April between March and April with seasonably Somalia: pound depreciation of the scarcity of foreign exchange 2014 and 5 South Sudan areas production slightly above average remained lower than including sorghum and maize Ethiopia average harvest season following period post of 2014 and 5 Sudan between : : Prices at the same levels (+5% for sorghum price in : : Prices Cereal prices were in the western surplus - - harvest and lean stable stable or increasing yrs - : : prices wellabove year avg March and April . of of staple foods a year of above Baidoa South Sudan avg following 2014 due - Meher in transition in transition to ). - July lean 2014 to to . May 2015 1 GHA Informal*Cross st quarter2015 of - border Trade bulletin illegal or illicit trade. This does not equate to channels. taxed through official statistics or inspected and recorded in government boundaries not typically flows through countries’ trade represents commodity *Informal cross - border – May 2015 GHA Cross - border border Trade bulletin KEY MESSAGES: • • • • • the Kenya Livestock than 4 conflict of the increasing with and sorghum maize The and Uganda). (TZcountries harvest average above SSD) and Kenya, (e.g. markets destination in harvest belowdue to average Q1,foryear average higher remain but Q4/2014 from Maize (Jan Q1 in commodities traded Maize Q1. for average 4 than higher remain but Q4/2014 GHAcommodities in declined from main of volumes trade Informal volumes of cross border trade border cross of volumes - exports beans and dry year average. average. year - Mar) trade - Ethiopia from a low base as as base a low from – wanes and remain higher higher and remain wanes 1 of decreased seasonally by 8% by seasonally decreased increasing especially increasing st 2015. quarter of 2015 of quarter - Somalia Somalia remain East East South Sudan are Sudan South Africa region Africa triangle. the most the the intensity the than the than - in in year of source source along along 4 - May 2015 Maize: Informaltrade Q1/2015 in First Maize Maize exports from Ethiopia to Kenya Imports from TZ to Kenya also remain Maize conflict volumes for the first quarter due to 43% markets. related disruptions to some Q1/2015 between Sudan increased atypically by average for high (three times the remained but Q1/2015 unusually between the Q4/2014 and declined seasonably by 45percent areas of Kenya. in the southeastern and coastal average February high harvest in October due to a to three times the quarter quarter exports exports from Uganda to South exports as as a result of a below below the four average - related constrains. - 20 to the the due due to from Uganda to Kenya. - - Q1) January 30% Q4/2014 remain however reducing below below average - to 4 - 60 (Short (Short - year average, March 4 - and - 70% year conflict Kenya Rains) Rains) harvest below below 42% up - May 2015 Sorghum: Informal trade in Q1/2015 • • • Similar Similar trends forMaize were as to market November fromsupply the following Q1/2015 and the respectivelybetween percent typically 60 and by 49 and South Sudan Exports restrictions Sudan by cross easing of increasing trade the XBT unusuallyremained harvest South in Octoberto Q1/2015due by 51% South Sudan exportsfromSorghum Q1in observed - January harvest in Uganda. Uganda. in Januaryharvest 4 - year average due due average year between from Uganda Uganda declined declined seasonally - border border trade following Sudan. However, Sudan. Q4/2014 increased increased . to Sudan Sudan to increased increased to - to Kenya Kenya high than high Q4/2014 the and - January - May 2015 • • • • season insouthern Somalia stable Exports of period startingin June. for fatteningin animalspreparations for the forthcoming Ramadan remained 40% and camelids seasons ofgood rains in Gradual year exports security 27% Exports quality/big size average the Exports of Livestock: Informaltrade Q1/2015 in Q4/2014 Q4/2014 respectivelybetween average for since 2014 since 2014 due - to Kenya were of for Q1 growth in camel herd size relatedpatrols along the Kenya camels and camelids goats and sheep goats and and from higher higher than the due due to increasedpreference by Somali tradersfor high goats from from Q1 due Q1/2015 Q1/2015 and were remarkably higher than 4 Ethiopia to Ethiopia to Somalia to low supply during the January 125% 125% northern Somalia to Q4/2014 Q4/2014 and Q1/2015 due Ethiopia. imbalance demand/supply . from and and S 4 from omalia - Somalia to year 23% 23% aftertwo Somalia to Kenya average respectively higher than the . Nevertheless,exports inQ1 - Somalia border. However, increasedbetweenseasonally reduced - Kenya to due due - three consecutive to increaseddemand declined demand for to for meatin - was typically to increased - April dry by - year 24 24 and camel Kenya. 4 - May 2015 In Exports from Tanzania to southeastern Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi are expected to remain high MAIZE: Seasonal Seasonal The January Seasonal supplies SORGHUM Maize Exports from surplus Supplies Trade Uganda, compared to following above average production and despite high States. development of alternative linkages to South Sudan especially in traders due to reduced incidences of clashes, and improved trade transactions between cross into Kenya limiting exports west of Nairobi. April and June, but exports are expected face stiff competition with exports from Tanzania regions of Tanzania. due to low prices for the forthcoming start of harvest in May in the main producing southern well 2013 estimated ( April and June following increased supply from the above average October currency Meher between South Sudan and Uganda exports from Ethiopia to northern Kenya are expected to continue seasonably between from Ethiopia integrated with southern Somalia, are expected to be normal. exports from Ethiopia to central and northern Somalia areas that are structurally not ). Increased availability is likely to imports limit from : comparative . ) harvest. - to depreciation in Sudan. - 29% higher 29% higher February ( from Ethiopia to Djibouti - producing areas in Sudan to South Sudan expected to be relatively higher to South Sudan expected low prices Deyr than than )2014/2015maize and sorghum production in southern Somalia is Outlook Q2/2015 Outlook Deyr of maize are 2013/14 and and 2013/14 lower than pre expected expected to bolster exports to Kenya between to increase gradually 5% higher 5%higher to be near average in the same period. - conflict than than the five year average (2009 Ethiopia period, period, Jonglei as as in in Q2. inflation rate and local but but higher a result of ongoing and and Upper Nile - to - January than than Q2/2014 - border - May 2015 Climate Update May 2015 May 2015 GHACOF 39 MAM 2015 OUTLTLOOK2015 39MAM GHACOF May 2015 (% OF MAM RAINFALL RECEIVED BY APRIL) May 2015 May 2015 May 2015 May 2015 May 2015 Indian Ocean Dipole Indian