London Development Agency and North London Strategic Alliance

North London Employment Land Study Final Report

May 2006

Halcrow Group Limited in association with PACEC and Glenny LLP

Halcrow Group Limited Vineyard House 44 Brook Green London W6 7BY Tel +44 (0)20 7602 7282 Fax +44 (0)20 7603 0095 www.halcrow.com

Halcrow Group Limited has prepared this report in accordance with the instructions of their clients, London Development Agency and North London Strategic Alliance, for their sole and specific use. Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk.

© Halcrow Group Limited 2006 North London Employment Land Study Final Report

Contents Amendment Record

This report has been issued and amended as follows:

Issue Revision Description Date Signed A 1 Working Draft for Comments 17/06/05 Steve Scott (Project Manager) B 2 Draft Final Report 29/07/05 Steve Scott (Project Manager) C 3 Interim Final Draft 12/10/05 Steve Scott (Project Manager) D 4 Final Draft 02/12/05 Steve Scott (Project Manager) E 5 Final Report (Draft) 24/03/06 Steve Scott (Project Manager) F 6 Final Report (Draft) 05/05/06 Steve Scott (Project Manager) G 7 Final Report 16/05/06 Steve Scott (Project Manager)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 ii File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Contents

Executive Summary 1 5 Employment Land Demand 45 5.1 Approach 45 PART 1: NORTH LONDON ANALYSIS 13 5.2 Employment Forecasts 45 5.3 Assessing Employment Land Demand 51 5.4 Sensitivity Testing 54 1 Introduction 14 5.5 Conclusions 60 1.1 Background 14 1.2 Study Objectives 15 6 North London Key Findings 61 1.3 Report Structure 15 6.1 Key Outcomes 61 6.2 Employment land supply 61 2 Methodology 16 6.3 Structural Change in Employment Land Demand 63 2.1 Data Identification and Collection 16 6.4 ‘Land Requirement’ for North London 63 2.2 Mapping and Analysis 16 2.3 Demand and Market Assessment 16 PART 2: BOROUGH LEVEL ANALYSIS 66 2.4 Cluster Multi-Criteria Appraisals 17

7 Barnet 67 3 Sub-Regional Context 20 7.1 Introduction 67 3.1 Introduction 20 7.2 Current Market Context 67 3.2 Economic Context 20 7.3 Employment Land Supply 69 3.3 Policy Context 24 7.4 Employment Land Demand 75 3.4 Market Overview 27 7.5 Cluster Appraisals 77 3.5 Transport Overview 31

8 Enfield 80 4 Existing Employment Land Supply 36 8.1 Introduction 80 4.1 Gross and Net Employment Land 36 8.2 Current Market Context 80 4.2 Land for Industrial/Warehousing Uses 37 8.3 Employment Land Supply 82 4.3 Area and Floorspace Analysis 40 8.4 Employment Land Demand 89 4.4 Site Quality and Other Issues 43 8.5 Cluster Appraisals 91

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 iii File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 9 Haringey 94 9.1 Introduction 94 9.2 Current Market Context 94 9.3 Employment Land Supply 96 9.4 Employment Land Demand 102 9.5 Cluster Appraisals 105

10 Waltham Forest 108 10.1 Introduction 108 10.2 Current Market Context 108 10.3 Employment Land Supply 110 10.4 Employment Land Demand 117 10.5 Cluster Appraisals 119

References

Appendix A Cluster Assessment Matrix

Appendix B Cluster Appraisals

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 iv File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Abbreviations

ABI Annual Business Inquiry SIC Standard Industrial Classification LEPS [PACEC] Local Economic Profiling SPG Supplementary Planning Guidance System SRDF Sub-Regional Development Framework LSCP London-Stansted-Cambridge- TfL Transport for London Peterborough [Growth Corridor] UDP Unitary Development Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GLA Greater London Authority GVA Gross Value Added LBB London Borough of Barnet LBE London Borough of Enfield LBH London Borough of Haringey LBWF London Borough of Waltham Forest LDA London Development Agency MCA Multi-Criteria Analysis MPC [Bank of England] Monetary Policy Committee NLELS North London Employment Land Study NLSA North London Strategic Alliance NLSRDF North London Sub-Regional Development Framework PEL Primary Employment Location PPS Planning Policy Statement PPG Planning Policy Guidance PTAL Public Transport Accessibility Level ODPM Office of the Deputy Prime Minister RTP Roger Tym and Partners SEL Strategic Employment Location

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 v File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Executive Summary

PART 1: NORTH LONDON ANALYSIS • The recent strategic Greater London Authority (GLA) study of Industrial and Warehousing Land Please note that the information presented within • Ongoing development of the North London Sub- the report (including all assessments, findings and Regional Development Framework (NLSRDF) recommendations) are solely based on the views of the Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP team, and has The following objectives have been identified and been prepared using site information collected agreed for this work: during March and April 2005. As a result this report, and the information presented within it, does not • Undertake a data rich collection of information, constitute the views of individual Borough from a wide range of existing and new sources Councils, North London Strategic Alliance (NLSA) • Incorporate all information collected into a MapInfo or London Development Agency (LDA). compatible GIS • Analyse each cluster / site for redevelopment Introduction potential for employment and mixed use This study has been undertaken to assess the current • Undertake a strategic, but localised, review of usage and future need for employment land within the North London employment and property markets North London Boroughs of Barnet, Enfield, Haringey • Assessment of the market and redevelopment and Waltham Forest in order to inform the ongoing potential of these clusters / sites economic, planning and development activities within these areas. The LDA and NLSA commissioned this Methodology work and it has been undertaken by a multi-disciplinary 1 The following four stage methodology has been used team from Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP . for this study: The key drivers for this study include: • Data Identification and Collection – A range of activities were undertaken to identify and collect • Publication of the London Plan the required data. These included a desk top review of available information, consultations with key stakeholders, agreement of a data collection 1 PACEC provided the socio-economic, business and employment analysis and framework, visual field surveys of employment the employment and market demand assessment. Glenny LLP provided sub­ land, along with data collation and validation. regional, borough and cluster market commentaries. Halcrow provided the overall assessment and all other appraisal and specialist inputs.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 1 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Mapping and Analysis – All the data collected during the field survey was then mapped and Table ES1 North London Land Supply Summary analysed to provide an assessment of the existing Area (ha) employment land supply • Demand and Market Assessment – An Gross employment land 742.0 employment demand and market assessment was Net employment land (excluding roads and public 669.9 also undertaken to identify the current and future open space) demand for employment land Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 589.1 • Multi- Criteria Appraisal (MCA) – The individual (including unclassified uses) cluster appraisals use a MCA process which Vacant or derelict land 95.8 provides a qualitative assessment of cluster ‘Unknown’ 40.8 viability (relative to other borough and North Source: Halcrow (April 2005) London clusters), taking into account 21 criteria covering (1) strategic, (2) physical arrangement, local access and site quality, (3) strategic Two key conclusions can be drawn from this analysis: transport access and supporting infrastructure, (4) buffer area and sensitive receptor, and (5) policy • Firstly that a significant proportion of designated issues. employment land has in fact been lost to uses that are not classed as industrial/warehousing North London Key Findings uses. The result is that the ‘actual’ industrial The key findings in regard to employment land supply, /warehousing stock is significantly more structural change in employment land demand, and constrained than overall levels of employment land requirements for North London are employment land designations suggest. presented below. • Secondly a large proportion of North London employment land (18%) is identified as ‘vacant’, Employment Land Supply ‘derelict’ or ‘unknown’. This is above the level This study has provided a detailed analysis and identified as vacant in the Roger Tym and understanding of the employment land supply in the Partners (RTP) study2, and could be North London sub-region through primary site survey. A considered as natural. This indicates total of 104 key North London employment clusters potential for future land release. were identified and mapped during the survey. A summary of this employment land supply is provided in Table ES1 below. 2 Industrial and Warehousing Land in London, (RTP et al, 2004)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 2 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc The quality and characteristics of employment land Structural Change in Employment Land Demand stock is also important in understanding the relationship With regards to demand, the forecasts for employment between supply and demand. The key characteristics land are subject to a high level of sensitivity, reliant as are summarised below: they are on employment forecasting data, employment density and plot ratios. • The most significant land uses by land area are wholesale, warehousing and motor vehicle sales Under our NLELS Employment Base demand scenario /repair which combined account for 41% of the forecast employment land demand in 2016 ranges employment land area between 705ha and 868ha. This represents a fall in • Employment land is highly concentrated on a demand between 2001-2016 of between 87ha and small number of large employment sites. Indeed, 9 104ha. Taking the mid-point, we estimate that in 2016 large employment areas account for 45% of net employment land demand will be 786ha, a fall of 95ha employment land in the sub-region. in the period 2001-2016, as shown in Table ES2. • Equally there is a large concentration in Enfield, which accounts for 85% of North London net employment land (of which just over one-third is Table ES2 Land Demand Scenarios by Borough within the Brimsdown Industrial Area). Barnet and Land Change Change Haringey have no employment areas of over 15ha requirements 2001 2005 in size. in 2016 (ha) 2016 (ha) 2016 (ha) 2 • An estimated 4.9 million m of employment Barnet 199 -51 -9 floorspace has been identified in North London, Enfield 316 14 26 with the vast majority (55%) located in Enfield. Haringey and Waltham Forest each account for Haringey 159 -14 -12 19% of floorspace stock, while Barnet only Waltham Forest 111 -43 -17 2 accounts for 7% (340,000 m ). North London 786 -95 -12 • In terms of the age and condition of employment Source: PACEC buildings, the survey indicated that the stock is generally good with vast majority of buildings being identified as ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ (85%) ‘Land Requirements’ for North London and almost two thirds having an estimated age of The context for the NLELS study has always been the less than 30 years Industrial and Warehousing Land in London, (RTP et al, 2004) which from a strategic perspective established the ‘land requirement’ for London and its component

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 3 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc sub-regions. The analysis within the RTP study With regards to vacant land and floorspace, there assumed that ‘at any point in time, the planned supply needs to be a natural level of vacant land to facilitate and market demand for industrial/warehousing land will the effective market operations. The survey of sites be in balance if supply equals the demand for occupied identified that around 96ha (13%) of industrial/ land, plus margins of vacant land and vacant floorspace warehousing land is vacant, which is higher than the to allow for smooth operation of the market’. generally considered natural rate (10%). If a 10% vacancy rate was achieved then there is the potential It also notes that policy needs to focus on change in for 36ha of vacant land to be released by 2016. supply and demand over the relevant planning period with this change referred to as the ‘land requirement’ Intensification has been considered through the (or land release if negative). In this respect the desired sensitivity in terms of employment density and plot change in planned supply equals (a) structural ratios but is not translated into considerations on change in demand, plus (b) required change in planned supply. vacant land, plus (c) required change in vacant floorspace, plus (d) intensification. The conclusion is that an employment land release of between 123 and 140ha (2001-2016) is possible The NLELS study provides a more detailed assessment without constraining the sub-regional market. of this potential ‘land requirement’ using locally However, for the period 2005-2016 the potential for generated supply and demand information. land release required is significantly lower at around 50ha, on the basis that most structural Table ES2 shows the structural change in change in the industrial/warehousing sectors has employment land demand is forecast to fall 95ha already taken place. between 2001 and 2016. However, it also shows that from 2005 to 2016 demand only falls by 12ha. This A summary of this land release potential, on a Borough implies that a relatively modest employment land basis, for 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 is presented in supply adjustment is required for this period, and that Tables ES3 and ES4 respectively. most of the adjustment has already occurred.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 4 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table ES3 North London Land Requirements, 2001-2016 North London Barnet (ha) Enfield (ha) Haringey (ha) Waltham Forest (ha) (ha) Change in Structural Demand -87 to -104 -46 to -57 +12 to +16 -13 to -15 -39 to -48 Change in Vacant Land required -36 - -32 -1ha -3 Total Land Requirement 2001-2016 -123 to -140 -46 to -57 -16 to -20 -14 to -16 -42 to -51 Source: PACEC

Table ES4 North London Land Requirements, 2005-2016 North London Barnet (ha) Enfield (ha) Haringey (ha) Waltham Forest (ha) (ha) Change in Structural Demand -12 -8 to -10 +23 to +29 -11 to -13 -15 to -19 Change in Vacant Land -36 - -32 -1 -3 Total Land Requirement 2005-2016 -50 -8 to -10 -3 to -9 -12 to -14 -18 to -22 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 5 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc PART 2: BOROUGH LEVEL ANALYSIS Table ES5 Barnet Land Supply Summary Area (ha) Barnet Key Findings The key current market context, employment land Gross employment land 61.3 supply and demand, and individual cluster appraisal Net employment land (excluding roads and public 55.7 findings for Barnet are presented below. open space) Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 37.6 Current Market Context (including unclassified uses) Barnet generally has a small and fragmented industrial/ Vacant or derelict land 4.5 warehousing base with a scattering of sites across the ‘Unknown’ 4.4 borough. Key clusters of activity include the New Source: Halcrow (April 2005) Southgate area incorporating Brunswick Park; the Mill Hill area which includes a number of medium sized industrial estates; and Colindale incorporating three The key findings of the Barnet employment land supply adjacent clusters. This stock is in the main well assessment were: occupied but they are not any significant proposed industrial development in the borough. • The top three land use categories by site area are wholesale, warehousing, and public administration The office market in recent years has not been which combined account for 43% of employment particularly strong, witnessed by the fact there has site land area (16ha) and 31% of employment been no speculative office developments for 10-15 sites (62 sites) years. Economically, the local market place is not • The vast majority of Barnet employment land is prepared to pay rent which is adequate to finance the located within 8 intermediate sized employment build cost of new offices. The anticipated out-sourcing land clusters (40% of the identified clusters) that of Central London functions to the borough has not range in size from 2 to 15ha materialised so demand tends to be local in nature. • The majority of sites are small to medium with 52% of sites being found within the range of 1 to Employment Land Supply 1,000m2. It should be noted however that these Within Barnet 20 employment clusters were identified sites cover only 10% of the net Barnet and mapped containing a total of 228 individual employment site area or just over 50,000m2 (5ha). employment sites. With the Borough around 61ha of • Around 340,000m2 of employment floorspace has employment land was identified, which accounted for been identified within Barnet around 0.7% of Barnet land. Key employment land • While the building stock within Barnet is generally supply information is provided in Table ES5 below. identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a higher

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 6 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc proportion of buildings have been identified as Current Market Context ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case at the Enfield contains the largest concentration of industrial/ North London level warehousing activity in the sub-region and experiences the strongest demand, which comes from both local Employment Land Demand and national companies. The early 1990s property The Barnet employment land demand is forecast to crash effectively halted all speculative commercial reduce during the periods 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 development in this region and the first new industrial as outlined in Table ES6 below. This table shows the buildings developed (without pre-lets or pre-sales) was change in Barnet net employment land demand using circa 1997. Subsequent to that there have only been a both the employment base prepared for this study and handful of further “schemes” although a number of the existing GLA employment base (for comparison opportunities are now beginning to arise following purposes). developers purchase of sites or buildings.

Enfield Key Findings It is estimated there is potentially 450,000 sq ft of new The key Enfield findings regarding the current market small and medium sized warehouse/industrial building context, employment land supply and demand, and is in the planning pipeline or under construction. This individual cluster appraisal are presented below. will almost entirely be based upon sites which were formerly occupied by single or larger users.

Table ES6 Change in Barnet Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -46 -8 -52 -11 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -57 -10 -63 -13 Mid-Range -51 -9 -57 -12 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 7 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Employment Land Supply clusters (28% of the identified clusters) each of Within Enfield 807 individual employment sites were which is 15ha or larger. The Brimsdown Industrial identified within 25 employment land clusters. These Area is the largest of these and at 115h accounts clusters covered around 404ha of land, which equates of almost a third of Enfield employment land area. to approximately 4.9% of the Borough. A summary of • A good spectrum of employment land sites are the key existing employment land supply information found within Enfield from very small (less than within Enfield is provided in Table ES7 below. 250m2) through to the very large (172,000m2 plus). However the top 18% of sites cover just over 2.7million m2 (272ha). This equates to around Table ES7 Enfield Land Supply Summary 76% of the net area covered by all Enfield Area (ha) employment sites. • Just over 2.7 million m2 of employment floorspace Gross employment land 404.2 was identified within Enfield Net employment land (excluding roads and public 359.1 • While the building stock within Enfield is generally open space) identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a higher Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 333.2 proportion of buildings have been identified as (including unclassified uses) ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case at the Vacant or derelict land 65.0 North London level ‘Unknown’ 14.2 Source: Halcrow (April 2005) Employment Land Demand The employment land demand for Enfield is forecast to The key findings of the Enfield employment land supply increase (using the NLELS employment base) during assessment were: the periods 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 as outlined in Table ES8 below. This table shows the change in net • The top three land use categories by site area are Enfield employment land demand using both the study food and tobacco, wholesale, and warehousing prepared employment and existing GLA employment which combined account for 41% of employment base (for comparison purposes). site land area (136ha) and 39% of employment sites (276 sites) • Just over two thirds of the Enfield employment land is located within 7 very large employment

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 8 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table ES8 Change in Enfield Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 12 23 -43 -22 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 16 29 -52 -26 Mid-range 14 26 -47 -24 Source: PACEC

Haringey Key Findings LBH has never been perceived as a key office location, The key current market context, employment land in part due to the lack of available development land supply and demand, and individual cluster appraisal but in the main due to its proximity to the centre of findings for Haringey are presented below. London. Therefore office demand in borough comes almost entirely from companies historically situated in Current Market Context the area, or businesses whose clear aim is to provide a The London Borough of Haringey (LBH) potentially has service within the borough or its close proximity. Also, the oldest industrial/warehousing stock in the sub­ in line with all boroughs of this density, there is a region. It is clear from recent market activity that there relatively large quantity of space occupied by local exists a reasonable demand for small and medium authority and ancillary users. sized industrial units in the borough although such demand will undoubtedly begin to wane as the Employment Land Supply available stock becomes more and more obsolete. Within Haringey 25 employment clusters were identified Whilst some speculative construction has commenced and mapped containing a total of 715 individual in neighbouring boroughs over the last few years there employment sites. With the Borough around 133ha of are very few opportunities in Haringey for employment land was identified, which accounted for redevelopment on reasonably sized sites. The lack of around 4.5% of Haringey land. Key employment land single large occupiers and the highly fragmented supply information is provided in Table ES9 below. ownership on many sites has restricted market opportunities for redevelopment.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 9 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table ES9 Haringey Land Supply Summary clusters (ranging from 2 to 15ha) which account Area (ha) for 89% of the Haringey employment land (108ha) • A good spectrum of employment land sites are Gross employment land 133.2 found within Haringey from very small (less than Net employment land (excluding roads and public 120.6 250m2) through to the very large (55,000m2 plus) open space) • Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 103.5 was identified within Haringey (including unclassified uses) • Building stock within Haringey is largely identified Vacant or derelict land 11.4 as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’. In addition a ‘Unknown’ 9.2 smaller proportion of buildings within the Borough Source: Halcrow (April 2005) are identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case for North London.

The key findings of the Haringey employment land Employment Land Demand supply assessment were: The Haringey employment land demand is forecast to reduce during the periods 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 • The top three land use categories by site area are as outlined in Table ES10 below. This table shows the wholesale, warehousing, and transport and change in Haringey net employment land demand combined (SIC 51, 62 and 63) account for 42% of using both the employment base prepared for this study employment land area (43ha) and 36% of and the existing GLA employment base (for comparison employment sites (208 sites) purposes). • The vast majority of Haringey employment land is located within a group of 15 intermediate sized

Table ES10 Change in Haringey Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -13 -11 -28 -22 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -15 -13 -35 -26 Mid-range -14 -12 -31 -24 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 10 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Waltham Forest Key Findings Whilst historically the borough was home to some The key Waltham Forest findings regarding the current major employers in the past, it has never been a major market context, employment land supply and demand, location for office centres. There has certainly been no and individual cluster appraisal are presented below. speculative office development in the borough on any large scale for probably 15 years and, with demand Current Market Context generally only coming from local occupiers, this The industrial/warehousing product in Waltham Forest situation is predicted to continue. is in the main fragmented, with no major new industrial development in the borough for perhaps ten years, Employment Land Supply save for two smaller schemes in the Argall Avenue area Within Waltham Forest 652 individual employment sites (with the obvious exception of those occupiers who were identified within 34 employment land clusters. have constructed their own bespoke buildings). The These clusters covered around 143ha of land, which borough ostensibly caters well for the small business equates to approximately 3.7% of the Borough. A operator since there are potentially a variety of suitable summary of the key Borough existing employment land units available in the sub 5,000 sq ft sector ranging supply information is provided in Table ES11 below. from “break up” units to more modern 1980s stock.

At the larger end of the industrial scale, there are Table ES11 Waltham Forest Land Supply Summary limited units in excess of 20,000 sq ft which meet Area (ha) modern requirement, but this reflects the fact that the internal road infrastructure is not particularly suited to Gross employment land 143.3 major distribution. Net employment land (excluding roads and public 134.6 open space) A surprisingly large amount of 1950s/1960s industrial Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 115.1 stock remains, an era which saw large tranches of (including unclassified uses) development on individual plots by growing post war Vacant or derelict land 14.9 businesses. Such units, whilst potentially approaching ‘Unknown’ 13.0 the end of their useful constructional life, generally have Source: Halcrow (April 2005) high densities and are still popular as they are relatively affordable on a freehold basis. The estates constructed in the late 1970s/early 1980s are generally still useable The key findings of the Waltham Forest employment in the modern business environment. With good land supply assessment were: management and maintenance they should have a long lifespan and thus imminent redevelopment is unlikely.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 11 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • The top three land use categories by site area are In addition a smaller proportion of buildings within refuse and recycling, motor vehicle sale and the Borough are identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ repair, and wholesale, which combined account that was the case for North London. for 46% of employment land area (54ha) and 51% of employment sites (274 sites) Employment Land Demand • The majority of the Waltham Forest clusters are The employment land demand for Waltham Forest is however of intermediate size (ranging from 2 to forecast to reduce during the periods 2001-2016 and 15ha) and these account for 56% of the Waltham 2005-2016 is outlined in Table ES12 below. This table Forest employment land (75ha) shows the change in net Waltham Forest employment • A good spectrum of employment land site are land demand using both the study prepared found within the Borough from very small (less employment and existing GLA employment base (for than 250m2) to the very large (49,000m2 plus) comparison purposes). • Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace was identified within Waltham Forest • The building stock within Waltham Forest is largely identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’.

Table ES12 Change in Waltham Forest Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -39 -15 -57 -27 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -48 -19 -69 -33 Mid-range -43 -17 -63 -30 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 12 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc PART 1: NORTH LONDON ANALYSIS

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 13 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 1 Introduction

Please note that the information presented within • Publication in 2004 of the London Plan which sets the report (including all assessments, findings and out the priority for the improvement of the variety recommendations) are solely based on the views of and quality of, and access to, employment sites the Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP team, and has within London to meet identifiable demand for been prepared using site information collected employment land during March and April 2005. As a result this report, • The recent strategic Greater London Authority and the information presented within it, does not (GLA) study of Industrial and Warehousing Land constitute the views of individual Borough which identified the potential for the release of Councils, North London Strategic Alliance (NLSA) around 100ha of employment land within North or London Development Agency (LDA). London. The key elements of this study are to be incorporated into a Supplementary Planning 1.1 Background Guidance (SPG) document on the subject. • Ongoing development of the North London Sub- This study has been undertaken to assess the current Regional Development Framework (NLSRDF) usage and future need for employment land within the which will advance the London Plan spatial North London Boroughs of Barnet, Enfield, Haringey development policy implementation within North and Waltham Forest in order to inform the ongoing London. This will include the identification of a economic, planning and development activities within number of Opportunity Areas and Areas for these areas. The LDA and NLSA commissioned this Intensification. work and it has been undertaken by a multi-disciplinary team from Halcrow, PACEC and Glenny LLP3. This report is one of a number of deliverables that have been produced for this study with the others including: The key drivers for this study include: • A1 Employment Land Maps that provide an overview of the existing employment land within each of the four North London boroughs; and • An Employment Land GIS / Database that provides a range of detailed information on each 3 PACEC provided the socio-economic, business and employment analysis and site surveyed during the study the employment and market demand assessment. Glenny LLP provided sub­ regional, borough and cluster market commentaries. Halcrow provided the overall assessment and all other appraisal and specialist inputs.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 14 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 1.2 Study Objectives • Section 2 provides an overview of the methodology used for the study The following objectives have been identified and • Section 3 outlines the North London strategic agreed for this work: context within which any decisions about employment land will need to be undertaken • Undertake a data rich collection of information, • Section 4 considers the existing quantity and from a wide range of existing and new sources, quality of employment land across North London that provide and understanding of the uses and • Section 5 considers current and forecast demand development potential of North London for employment land in North London employment land • Section 6 outlines the key study findings for North • Incorporate all information collected into a MapInfo London compatible GIS which is designed and structured to provide data consistency and integrity, Part 2 of the report provides detailed borough level assessment and analysis ability, and easy analysis of employment land supply and demand. It information presentation includes the following sections: • Analyse each cluster / site for redevelopment potential for employment and mixed use taking • Section 7 provides a focused summary of the into account the local, regional and national relevant employment land issues for Barnet planning and economic development context • Section 8 outlines the key Enfield employment • Undertake a strategic, but localised, review of the land issues identified employment and property markets within North • Section 9 presents a targeted summary of the London to assess the current employment land important Haringey employment land issues and housing supply and demand • Section 10 looks at the key Waltham Forest employment land issues identified 1.3 Report Structure

To address these objectives this report has been structured as follows:

The remainder of Part 1 of this report presents the sub­ regional analysis of employment land in North London. It includes the following sections:

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 15 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 2 Methodology

The following four stage methodology has been used • The survey results are based on visual inspections for this study. of the sites, hence sites with incorrect or out of date business details displayed on site boards and 2.1 Data Identification and Collection walls will be recorded incorrectly • Likewise sites that are totally enclosed or not A range of activities were undertaken to identify and operating on the day of the survey will be collect the appropriate data for the study. These identified as unknown even though business included: activities may be undertaken

• A desk top review of a wide ranging review of The results of the field survey have however been reports and background information in order to comprehensively checked of inconsistencies and fit obtain an insight into the key local conditions and within general expectations and are a representative issues indication of the overall business area land uses and • Consultations with local council officers to characteristics. identify the existing clusters of employment land within each borough and to understand the 2.2 Mapping and Analysis priorities and agendas of each borough • A data collection framework agreed with the The data collected during the visual field survey was Client in order to provide a standardised then analysed to provide an assessment of the existing information collection template employment land supply. The key issues that were • A visual field survey of all identified employment assessed included the total supply of employment land, land the key existing land uses and the proportion of sites • The collation and validation of data to ensure that were either vacant or derelict, the spatial consistency and accuracy distribution of the employment land, the distribution of unit sizes, along with the floorspace distribution. The visual field survey data collection results should be treated with care as there a number of potential 2.3 Demand and Market Assessment errors that can affect the accuracy of the study results. These include: An employment demand and market assessment was also undertaken to identify the current and future demand for employment land within North London. This

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 16 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc assessment also took into account the broader economic and development context of the rest of • Group 1 – Strategic Issues London and the London-Stansted-Cambridge- • Group 2 – Physical Arrangements, Local Peterborough growth corridor, which incorporates the Access and Site Quality eastern side of the North London area. • Group 3 – Strategic Transport Access and Supporting Infrastructure This assessment was undertaken in three stages. The • Group 4 – Buffer Areas and Sensitive first stage was a market and developer assessment Receptors to provide an understanding of the practical likelihood • Group 5 – Policy Considerations of development taking place to meet actual or perceived demand. The following criteria are listed under Group 1 – Strategic Issues: A socio-economic analysis and employment land needs forecast was then undertaken to forecast the • Proportion of vacant / derelict sites – What net growth of jobs within the Borough and thus future proportion of the cluster is currently derelict? employment land needs. Clusters with more than 50% of the sites being derelict or vacant are likely to have been land The final stage of the assessment was the banked while a developer is waiting for a change consideration of the wider employment and of land use or the site may just not be appropriate development linkages and the development of for employment uses any more due to significant demand scenarios based on policy and market operational constraints. interventions. • Strategic mix and distribution of sites – Is the borough looking for a strategic mix and / or 2.4 Cluster Multi-Criteria Appraisals distribution of employment land sites? Does this site have a strategic fit due to the provision of A Multi-Criteria Appraisal (MCA) was undertaken of all cheap / start-up premises? identified North London employment land clusters in • Strategic reallocation of the site usage – Are order to rank each cluster (against other borough and key Government agencies and authorities already North London clusters). The MCA presented within this proposing the redevelopment of the site or its study has been developed by Halcrow to provide a release for non-employment based uses? reasoned assessment framework. In total 21 assessment criteria were identified. For ease of The following criteria are listed under Group 2 – understanding and assessment these criteria have Physical Arrangements, Local Access and Site been grouped according to the following categories: Quality:

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 17 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Distance to local railway station – How far is the • Overall cluster area and floorspace – Is the entrance of the cluster to the nearest local railway cluster of a viable size? station? • Age and quality of buildings – What is the • Distance to local shops and services – How far general age and quality of the buildings? Are they is the entrance of the cluster to the nearest local well maintained? Is there a mix of ages or were all shopping strip? the buildings developed at around the same time? • Quality of public realm – What is the general The following criteria are listed under Group 4 – Buffer quality of the public realm? Is it well maintained or Areas and Sensitive Receptors: significantly run down? Are they any significant environmental issues, such as flooding of fly­ • Distance to residential receptors – How far is tipping? the cluster to the nearest residential receptors? • Provision of drainage, lighting and security – Are there any buffers to these receptors? Have there been recent investments in the • Distance to natural receptors – How far is the improvement in the drainage, lighting and security cluster to the nearest nature reserve or park? Are within the Cluster? there any buffers to these receptors? • Quality of parking and internal circulation – Do • Distance to surface water receptors – How far the sites within the cluster provide on site parking? is the cluster to the nearest creek or river? Are • Operation of potentially contaminative uses – there any buffers to these receptors? Are sites potentially contaminated by previous • Interaction / conflicts between cluster and uses or located close to sensitive receptors? surrounding uses – How likely and significant is the interaction of the cluster and its surrounding The following criteria are listed under Group 3 – uses? Does the cluster buffer these sensitive uses Strategic Transport Access and Supporting from other more significant pollution sources? Infrastructure: The following criteria are listed under Group 5 – Policy • Connections to highway network – Does the Considerations: cluster have good connections to the strategic road network? Do vehicles need to pass down • Linkages with existing regeneration policies, residential streets to access the cluster? programmes and projects – Are there any local • General public transport accessibility – What is regeneration activities that have a strategic fit with the general public transport accessibility of the site the potential cluster redevelopment? according to the TfL PTAL model? • Current local employment issues and deprivation levels – Is there significant

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 18 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc employment deprivation within the area? Are there described. For this appraisal a five point scale is used other employment opportunities if the cluster was with 1 – Strongly Negative to 5 – Strongly Positive. to be redeveloped for non employment uses? • Potential to assist in the achievement of The scores are then weighted according to the economic development targets – Does the importance of each criteria grouping. The weightings cluster have the potential to significantly assist the have been assessed as shown in Table 2.1 and have realisation of key economic development targets? been chosen to provide a maximum weighted score of 500 for any cluster. Criteria Assessment Levels and Weighting MCA requires each criteria to be scored as to the extent to which the cluster achieves the criteria

Table 2.1 Weighted Assessment Against Criteria Groups Criteria Weighting Group 1 – Strategic Issues 35 Group 2 – Physical Arrangements, Local Access and Site Quality 25 Group 3 – Strategic Transport Access and Supporting Infrastructure 15 Group 4 – Buffer Areas and Sensitive Receptors 15 Group 4 – Policy Considerations 10 Total 100 Source: Halcrow

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 19 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 3 Sub-Regional Context

3.1 Introduction productivity rates will have far-reaching socio-economic impacts in term of local wealth of residents, This section reviews the economic context by drawing composition of local business stock, attraction of the on published economic data and relevant studies, area for business start-up or relocation, etc. including previous regional and district level employment surveys. The Sub-region of North London At £591 Greater London’s average weekly earnings by and its Boroughs (Barnet, Enfield, Haringey and workplace job, is considerably higher than the national Waltham Forest) are reviewed in context of Greater average of £420. However, all four North London London (all boroughs) and national averages. boroughs have earnings well below the Greater London value, which may imply potential for wage increases 3.2 Economic Context with changing industrial structure. Enfield and Barnet workplace jobs derive the highest average wages at GVA, Prosperity and Productivity, Earnings £484 and £472, with Haringey and Waltham Forest Great Britain experienced a 67.3% growth in Gross wages averaging £429 and £389, respectively. Value Added (GVA) over the ten-year period of 1991 to 2001 with a total GVA of £842 billion in 2001. Greater There is also a clear earnings differential in workplace­ London marginally exceeded the national growth rate based and residence-based average weekly earnings, with an increase of GVA by 69.6% over the same with the latter generally higher by £70 to £100 – period. Of the North London borough’s, only Barnet indicating the larger salaries outside North London. exceeded the national and London-wide GVA growth Barnet is the only borough with an average weekly with 73.4%, with Haringey, Enfield and Waltham Forest residence-based wage higher than the Greater London underperforming relative to the national trend with average. growth rates of 58.6%, 30.9% and 3.9% respectively. Population Greater London performs stronger than national The combined population of these four North London average for prosperity and productivity with values per boroughs total 1.05 million with a growth rate of 7.2% – person at £20,700 and £33,500, respectively. As lower than the Greater London rate 8.2%, but twice that functions of GVA, prosperity and productivity rates are of the national average. All four boroughs have lowest for Waltham Forest and Enfield, and higher for experience population growth with Barnet the highest at Barnet and Haringey though still at rates significantly 9% and Waltham Forest lowest at 2.6%. Barnet is the lower than Greater London. Low prosperity and largest borough by population of 324,000, followed by

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 20 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Enfield at 280,000 and Haringey and Waltham Forest of then Waltham Forest and Haringey at similar rates of similar size at 225,000 and 222,000 respectively. 7.8% and 7.9%.

Labour Market Balance Incapacity benefit rates benchmarked against GB have ‘Workplace jobs’ records employment in companies risen for all North London boroughs over the course of and the self-employed, and is a good indication of the 1990’s and early 2000, though at 5.5%, actual rates economic strength. North London had a total of remain lower than GB (6.7%) and same as Greater 367,000 jobs in 2001, having grown by 25,300 between London. 1991 and 2001. This growth rate of 7.4% is well below the Greater London average of 18.3% and the national Enterprise Development average of 16.0%. By borough, Barnet had the ABI data for 2003 identifies a total stock of 32,100 strongest growth with 13.2%; followed by Enfield, 9.6%; businesses in North London, the largest proportion of and Haringey, 3.8%; and Waltham Forest which these businesses in Barnet (14,100), which has the actually saw a 2.4% fall in employment. largest actual economically active population (29.9% of North London total). Over the decade 1991-2001, Rates of self-employed are indicative of Barnet has had a net growth of 2,760 businesses, entrepreneurship. Across the four boroughs there are Haringey by 565, Enfield by 90, but Waltham Forest nearly 50, 000 self-employed which is on par with has had a net lost of 370. Greater London and the national rate of 13% of total employment. Barnet has a higher proportion and actual Recent trends show how registrations rates have number of self-employed (approx. 20,000, or 15% of converged since 2000, having been higher than economically-active) and Waltham Forest the lowest London-wide and national averages. In 2003, all (approx. 6,000, or 10% self-employed). boroughs showed business VAT registration rates of over 10% in relation to their total business stock, North London boroughs record a large net out­ ranging between Waltham Forest at 14.2% and Barnet commuting of 140,000 people per day. The largest at 11.5%. De-registrations, however, were high in 2003 actual movement is from Barnet (39,000) and the so that both Enfield and Barnet recorded net losses in largest proportion from Waltham Forest (38%). stock, the rates and net gain/loss being: Barnet, 16.8%, lost 740 businesses; Haringey, 12.7%, gained 15 Unemployment and Incapacity Benefit businesses; Waltham Forest, 12.6%, gained 75 In parallel with national trends, unemployment growth in businesses; and Enfield, 11.6%, lost 130 businesses. all North London boroughs has fallen between 1991 and 2004. Barnet displays the lowest rate of unemployment at 5.8%, followed by Enfield (6.3%), and

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 21 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Industrial Structure pharmaceuticals); rail and water transport; hotels; Collectively there is 6.6m2 of rateable land in North wholesale; cinema and TV; retail (drink, household); London, with an estimated total rateable value of £459 advertising; computing and public admin and defence. million, an average rateable value of £70 per m2, Within North London there is considerable difference in Occupational Structure rateable value: Barnet is the most expensive across all North London boroughs have higher rates of land use categories, particularly with Retail, and professional occupations than national average: Waltham Forest and Enfield the cheaper. In North Manger / Senior (16.9% compared with 15.1%), London, land use is dominated by Retail (227,000m2) Professional occupations (15.6% compared with followed by Office (88,100m2), Warehouse (85,900m2) 11.2%), Associate professional and technical (17.2% and Factories (56,900m2)4 . compared with 13.8%), and Administrative (15.6% compared with 13.3%). Across all four boroughs Sector concentrations for North London reveal a Elementary, Skilled trades, and Process occupations broader spread of industries than Greater London, are under-represented compared to the national which has a very strong focus on finance and business. average. By borough, Barnet shows concentrations in retail, and finance and business; Haringey in Wholesale and Social Well Being Transport; Waltham Forest in Wholesale and Public Figure 3.1 shows the distribution of deprived wards as Service; and, Enfield in Construction, Wholesale and per the Index of Multiple Deprivation, across the four Transport. boroughs under review. The red shade shows those Super Output Areas classified as the most deprived Workplace jobs by sector across all boroughs total 20% in the nation. There is a clear clustering around 363,882. Public Service sector is the largest by East Haringey and extending into the South East of employee with 96,669 employees, followed by Finance Enfield and scattering through Waltham Forest, with and Business 70,473, and Retail 56,293. Wholesale stronger concentrations in the south. Barnet, West which shows high concentrations across all boroughs of Haringey and Central/West Enfield are clearly the least North London, has a considerably smaller total deprived of North London area. employment of 19,672.

In more detail, North London has performed particularly well in manufacturing (food and drink, clothing,

4 Source: ODPM

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 22 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Source: ODPM, PACEC Figure 3.1 Distribution of Deprived Areas in North London by Super Output Areas

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 23 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 3.3 Policy Context • Ensure that infrastructure and services are provided to support economic development and A range of current and anticipated planning policies will housing. be relevant to the retention and the change of land use • In terms of general approach two key principles of existing employment land within North London. The are pertinent. Firstly that planning authorities key policies at the national and regional levels within should bring forward sufficient land of a suitable the UK planning system hierarchical structure are quality to meet expected needs for housing and outlined below. industrial development. Secondly, that authorities should promote a more efficient use of land 3.3.1 National Policy through higher density mixed-use development and the use of suitable previously developed land PPS1 – Delivering Sustainable Development, 2005 and buildings. PPS1 sets out planning policies on the delivery of sustainable development through the planning system PPG3 – Housing, 2000 (Updated 2005) that need to be taken into account by regional planning PPG3 presents National Planning Policy with regards to bodies, the Mayor of London and local planning housing and sets out the intention for everybody to authorities. With regards to economic development, have the opportunity of a decent home and the national planning policies within PPS1 include that requirement to meet the housing needs of the whole planning authorities should: community. This requires provision of sufficient housing land while giving priority to re-using previously • Recognise that economic development can deliver developed land and existing development. Policy is environmental and social benefits committed to the provision of more sustainable housing • Recognise the wider benefits of economic development by: development, from the sub-regional level up • Ensure suitable locations for employment uses are • Concentrating additional housing development available so that the economy can prosper within urban areas • Recognise the dynamic nature of local economies • Making more efficient use of previously developed and be sensitive to changes and the implications land and existing buildings for development and growth • Assessing the capacity of urban areas to • Ensure the provision of sufficient, good quality, accommodate more housing new homes in suitable locations • Adopting a sequential approach to housing land allocation and adopting a plan, manage, review approach.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 24 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc In terms of the impact on employment sites, an PPG13 – Transport, 2002 important update to PPG3 published in 2005 makes a Within PPG13, it is worth noting transport planning provision that applications for housing or mixed use policy as it relates to employment sites and premises. developments on land allocated for employment The key objective is to ensure that employment purposes should be considered favourably unless opportunities are accessible by public transport, proposals fail to reflect PPG3 policies on suitable walking and cycling. Therefore planning policies should development and previously developed sites or would aim to: undermine housing strategy at the local or regional level; or unless the realistic take-up of the site for • Provide a strategic balance between housing and employment purposes can be demonstrated or its re­ employment to minimise the need for long use would undermine local economic development and distance commuting regeneration. • Focus large employment areas in city, town and district centres, and near to major public transport PPG4 – Industrial, Commercial Development and interchanges Small Firms, 2001 • Encourage a mix of land-uses This employment related guidance sets out the requirement to give industrial and commercial 3.3.2 Regional Policy developers greater certainty about the types of development that will be permitted in a given location. The London Plan, 2004 This is further emphasised through PPG12 which states The Mayor of London’s London Plan was adopted in that structure plans and UDPs should include policies February 2004 and provides the framework within relating to major industrial and employment generating which all borough UDPs need to conform. The Plan development, providing clear land-use policies for presents six objectives for London: different types of industrial and commercial development. Any approach to employment land needs 1. To accommodate London’s growth within its to take account of the interaction between employment boundaries without encroaching on open spaces and other land-uses and be used to encourage 2. To make London a better city for people to live in development towards the most appropriate and 3. To make London a more prosperous city with a sustainable locations. PPG4 identifies that within the strong and diverse economic growth local policy framework employment development 4. To promote social inclusion and tackling should be supported and that due consideration should deprivation and discrimination be given to mixed use developments. 5. To improve London’s accessibility 6. To make London a more attractive, well-designed and green city

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 25 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc The overall development strategy within the Plan • To identify capacity to accommodate new job and provides a number of designations to direct housing opportunities and appropriate mixed-use development and ensures that development is development sustainable. Of relevance to this study are the following • To improve the variety, quality and access to designations: Opportunity Areas (three within North available employment sites, particularly within London sub-region) identified on the basis that they can SELs. accommodate substantial new jobs or homes; Areas for Intensification (three within North London sub-region) Draft Industrial Capacity SPG, 2003 which have significant potential for increases in The objectives of this draft SPG are to provide detailed residential, employment and other uses through guidance on how the broad policies in the London Plan (re)development and regeneration; Areas for should manage industrial development capacity, Regeneration where deprivation and social exclusion ensuring that sufficient land is available to meet future are significant; Strategic Employment Locations (ten industrial needs and bring surplus industrial land back within the North London sub-region) which contain into use to meet the wider objectives of the Plan. important concentrations of industrial and warehousing Specific guidance of relevance to this study include: activity. • The requirement through SPG1 to adopt a positive Strategic Employment Locations (SELs) are central to plan-monitor-manage approach to industrial land policy on industrial employment in the capital. While the using Sub-Regional Development Frameworks, to SELs will be promoted and managed to provide a justify and monitor changes to SELs, and to varied industrial offer, local policies outside of the SELs manage a competitive stock of industrial premises need to have regard to the quality and fitness for while consolidating industry into appropriate purpose of sites, and the potential release of surplus locations. land for other uses in order to achieve the efficient use • Promote Strategic Employment Locations as the of land. prime locations for industrial activity in London and resist the development of non-business uses on The Plan proposed that the North London sub-region these areas (SPG2), while also protecting locally should accommodate 47,000 additional dwellings and important industrial sites outside the SEL 26,000 new jobs by 2016, and sets out the following framework after testing them against demand relevant priorities for the area: (SPG3). • With regards to other industrial sites planning • To deliver the London element of the authorities should develop criteria based policies government’s priority for the London-Stansted- to manage release or retention of these areas and Cambridge-Peterborough growth corridor ensure that any release meets wider policy needs

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 26 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc (the first priority towards housing). North London industrial demand and a fall in the level of existing Boroughs are classed as a ‘Limited Transfer’ area vacant land to bring it in line with a ‘natural rate’. where local policies should reflect local difference in supply and demand, rather than adopting a 3.4 Market Overview restrictive or permissive approach to release (SPG4). The market overview for the North London sub-region • A positive approach to consideration of is drawn from existing reviews and documentation, and employment led mixed use development on the market review undertaken for this study by Glennys strategically recognised industrial sites or parts of LLP. sites, as long is it does not incur a significant net loss of industrial employment capacity (SPG5), The wider context for the sub-region is one of general and a promotion of distribution facilities in suitable manufacturing decline throughout the UK and London areas – PELs and SELs with good transport over recent years, a trend that is forecast to continue. accessibility (SPG8). Indeed current industrial trends throughout London suggest: Industrial and Warehousing Land Demand in London, 2004 • A declining level of available space This research supports the imminent Supplementary • A return to speculative development Planning Guidance on Industrial and Warehousing • Robust levels of tenant demand, driven by Land in London and confirms the estimate that some 50 warehousing and storage rather than hectares of industrial/warehousing land can be manufacturing released annually to 2016. The preferred scenario in • Rising rental values the study redistributed demand from sub-regions where • Hardening lease terms and a reduction of supply is tight to the East sub-region where there is a incentives large supply of land. At the Greater London level the following The study recommends that strategic guidelines for characteristics help define the industrial and land release should operate at the sub-regional level, warehousing market5. leaving sub-regional frameworks the task of allocating release between boroughs. It is estimated that employment land release in the North London sub­ region is between 90-100 hectares over the period 2001-2016. This release should relate to a decline in

5 Source: GLA ‘Industrial and Warehousing Demand in London’, August 2004.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 27 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • The capital has some 27.6 million m2 of built comparison to other parts of the UK. Within this industrial and warehousing floorspace, with 58% are marked sub-regional variations in demand, of this total consisting of warehousing space (a with the strongest pressure in the West London higher proportion than in neighbouring regions). and South London sub-regions. Within this context • The stock is generally ageing in nature compared the North London sub-region is experiencing to neighbouring regions and England as a whole. average levels of demand. In 2000, only 20.4% of factory stock had been built • Within North London the total since 1971, compared to 41% in the South East. industrial/warehousing stock was 3.5 million m2 in Similarly only 44% of warehousing space had 20036, the main focus of stock and demand being been built since 1971 compared to 62.6% in the Enfield which accounts for more than 40% of South East. stock. While Enfield has the ability to • The stock generally consists of smaller units, with accommodate large-scale requirements, the other 28.6% of factory space in units below 500 sqm. three boroughs operate in a much more medium However the size profile of warehousing units is to small units market. Generally the market is similar in comparison to neighbouring regions. finely balanced with a stock vacancy rate of 8.1% • Spatially within the capital, the East London sub­ and land vacancy rate of 6.9%. Outside of the region contains almost one-third of floorspace, Strategic Employment Land locations, land is following by the Western sub-region with almost a subject to pressure from high value uses such as further one-quarter of stock (23.7%). The North residential and mixed use development. London sub-region holds 13.1% of floorspace. • Industrial and warehousing stock is decreasing, A brief commentary on the commercial market in each falling by 1.1% (300,000sq m) between 2000 and borough is outlined below. 2003. This decline was seen across all sub­ regions for factory space but an increase in 3.4.1 Barnet warehousing, with the exception of Central Barnet generally has a small and fragmented London which saw both stocks decline. While industrial/warehousing base with a scattering of sites experiencing a 15.2% decline in factory space, across the borough. Key clusters of activity include the North London saw the highest growth in the New Southgate area incorporating Brunswick Park; the warehousing sector (12.8%). Mill Hill area which includes a number of medium sized • The overall market in London is tight. The overall industrial estates; and Colindale incorporating three vacancy rate is around 8.2% of floorspace, rents adjacent clusters. This stock is in the main well are comparatively high and rental growth strong • Across London, the pressure on demand for industrial/warehousing floorspace is strong in 6 Source: ODPM, 2003

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 28 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc occupied but they are not any significant proposed industrial development in the borough. Industrial rents It is estimated there is potentially 450,000 sq ft of new range from £6.75 per sq ft to £8.25 per sq ft for higher small and medium sized warehouse/industrial specification. Yields range from 6.5% to 8%. accommodation in the planning pipeline or under construction. This will almost entirely be based upon The office market in recent years has not been sites which were formerly occupied by single or larger particularly strong, witnessed by the fact there has users. Industrial rents range from £6.00 per sq ft to been no speculative office developments for 10-15 £8.95 per sq ft, yields ranging from 6.5% to 8.5%. years. Economically, the local market place is not prepared to pay rent which is adequate to finance the For historic reasons the North Eastern sector of build cost of new offices. The anticipated out-sourcing London, and specifically the M25, has not seen a huge of Central London functions to the borough has not demand for office space for in the last fifteen years. materialised so demand tends to be local in nature. The office demand, which is naturally focused on those Office rents range from £10 per sq ft to £12 per sq ft, currently situated in Central London has not seen a drift with yields between 7% and 9%. into this region and has been more focused on the western London corridor. Thus office demand has 3.4.2 Enfield tended to come almost entirely from companies who Enfield contains the largest concentration of are historically situated in this area and local service industrial/warehousing activity in the sub-region and companies such a solicitors, accountants plus the usual experiences the strongest demand, which comes from local authorities. both local and national companies. The property crash of the early 1990s effectively halted all speculative Within the LBE area there are very few locations which commercial development in this region and the first new could be defined as office “zones”. Innova Park is the industrial buildings developed (without pre-lets or pre­ only recently built office stock, totalling some 30,000 sq sales) was circa 1997. Subsequent to that there have ft and is approximately 75% occupied. Within Enfield only been a handful of further “schemes” although a Town itself are a number of individual multi storey office number of opportunities are now beginning to arise buildings at River Front and Southbury Road. These following developers purchase of sites or buildings. Of are of mixed age varying from 1960s construction up to specific note is the speculative Brixton Plc scheme at mid 1980s, the majority of which would not meet the A10 Exchange which extends to some 96,000 sq ft in specification required for Grade A office occupiers. A units from 2,500 sq ft. Early lettings show that there is majority of these buildings were originally occupied by a demand from occupiers for quality space and that single companies as head office or similar but due to rents necessary to undertake such development are change in business structures across the region most achievable with effort. of the offices in this area are now multi-let on a floor or

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 29 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc part floor basis. Office rents in the borough range from authority and ancillary users. Offices rents are around £11.00 per sq ft to £15.00 per sq ft. £11.00 per sq ft with yields around 9%.

3.4.3 Haringey 3.4.4 Waltham Forest The London Borough of Haringey potentially has the The industrial / warehousing product in Waltham Forest oldest industrial/warehousing stock in the sub-region. It is in the main fragmented, with no major new industrial is clear from recent market activity that there exists a development in the borough for perhaps ten years, reasonable demand for small and medium sized save for two smaller schemes in the Argall Avenue area industrial units in the borough although such demand (with the obvious exception of those occupiers who will undoubtedly begin to wane as the available stock have constructed their own bespoke buildings). The becomes more and more obsolete. Whilst some borough ostensibly caters well for the small business speculative construction has commenced in operator since there are potentially a variety of suitable neighbouring boroughs over the last few years there units available in the sub 5,000 sq ft sector ranging are very few opportunities in Haringey for from “break up” units round Stafford Road to more redevelopment on reasonably sized sites. The lack of modern 1980s stock in locations such as Harrow Road single large occupiers and the highly fragmented and Hainault Road, Leyton plus a number of schemes ownership on many sites has restricted market around the Blackhorse Lane area. opportunities for redevelopment. There is likely to be some new small unit industrial development in the At the larger end of the industrial scale, there are borough entirely on the “back” of residential scheme at limited units in excess of 20,000 sq ft which meet Bounds Green and Coppetts Road whilst similar modern requirement but this in general reflects the fact opportunities may arise elsewhere in the Borough. that the internal road infrastructure is not particularly Industrial rents range from £6.00 per sq ft to £8.00 per suited to major distribution. Units of 10-20,000 sq ft sq ft, with yields between 6.5% and 8%. approx are in the main situated around Billet Road and Argall Avenue. LBH has never been perceived as a key office location, in part due to the lack of available development land A surprisingly large amount of industrial stock remains but in the main due to its proximity to the centre of from the 1950s / 1960s, an era which saw large London. Therefore office demand in borough comes tranches of development on individual plots by growing almost entirely from companies historically situated in post war businesses. Such units, whilst potentially the area, or businesses whose clear aim is to provide a approaching the end of their useful constructional life, service within the borough or its close proximity. Also, and generally having high densities, are still popular as in line with all boroughs of this density, there is a they are relatively affordable on a freehold basis. Those relatively large quantity of space occupied by local estates within the borough which were constructed in

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 30 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc the late 1970s / early 1980s are in general terms still 3.5.1 Existing Transport Infrastructure useable in the modern business environment and, There is a significant amount of private and public although many are in single investment ownerships, transport infrastructure within North London as shown with good management and maintenance they will still in Figures 3.2 and 3.3 below. The existing road have a long lifespan and thus imminent redevelopment infrastructure includes a mixture of radial and orbital is unlikely. Industrial rents vary between £6.00 per sq ft routes, while the rail infrastructure is almost solely to £8.00 per sq ft, with yields between 6.5% and 8%. radial.

Whilst historically the borough was home to some Figure 3.2 shows the significant radial roads within the major employers in the past, it has never been a major area which include the A1055 and A10 in the east and location for office centres. There has certainly been no the A1 and M1 in the west. The main radial road shown speculative office development in the borough on any within the area is the A406 North Circular Road while large scale for probably 15 years and, with demand the M25 runs along the northern edge of the area. generally only coming from local occupiers and those From Figure 3.3 it can be seen that almost all of the rail already established in the borough, the situation is infrastructure within the area is radial with the exception predicted to continue. Aside from those offices which of the North London Line (between Gospel Oak and are ancillary to industrial users, there are clusters of Barking). The London Underground lines within the buildings in locations such as Church Road, Leyton, area, from east to west, are the Central Line, Victoria Fulbourne Road, Walthamstow and High Road, Line, Piccadilly Line, Northern Line (High Barnet and Leytonstone. In the main such buildings would be Mill Hill East Branch) and Northern Line (Edgware 1960s / 1970s construction and they are generally now Branch). The key main line railway lines within the multi occupied. Office rents are in the region of £11.00 areas include the Stansted / Cambridge Line, per sq ft and attract yields of 9%. Stevenage Line, East Coast Mainline, and Midland Mainline. 3.5 Transport Overview 3.5.2 Baseline Conditions and Issues The availability and ease of transport movements, both A wide range of significant transport conditions and public and private transport, will have a significant issues were identified including: impact on the potential utilisation and development of North London employment land. As a result a review of • Traffic congestion has a negative influence on the the existing and proposed transport situation within image of North London North London has been undertaken and is outlined below drawn from the North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, 2004).

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 31 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Source: North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, 2004) Figure 3.2 Existing North London Road Network

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 32 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Source: North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, 2004) Figure 3.3 Existing North London Railway Network

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 33 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Rail and underground services focus on radial dark blue areas having the least accessibility. This movements and as a result there is a lack of good shows that the major town centres, where there is quality and efficient orbital public transport interchange opportunities between rail and bus • High levels of traffic congestion reduce the areas services, have the highest accessibility while more accessibility to car and freight transport remote areas like the Lea Valley have the significantly • Poor accessibility in opportunities areas, lower accessibility. especially the Lea Valley, means that these areas are not currently achieving their maximum potential • Walking and cycling is an underused mode of transport in the Lea Valley • The car dominates mobility of North London residents as follows: - North London residents make three quarters of all private trips within North London (56% by car, 29% by cycling and only 15% by public transport) - Most travel movements out of the sub­ region are to destinations in Central London or East London sub-regions (57% of trips to Central London are by public Source: TfL / North London Transport Study, Final Report (JMP Consultants, transport and 62% of journeys to East 2004) London are by car) Figure 3.4 Public Transport Accessibility Levels - The majority of orbital movements are made by car 3.5.3 Opportunities and Key Initiatives The generally poor public transport accessibility of To address these conditions and issues a range of much of North London is further shown by Figure 3.4 opportunities and key initiatives are proposed. These which shows the Public Transport Accessibility Levels include: (PTAL)7 with the bright red areas having the best and • Improve management of North Circular traffic – Undertake a range of measures to improve

7 traffic flows on the North Circular and minimise The PTAL maps produced by Transport for London show the relative levels of any negative environmental and social issues public transport accessibility of locations within Greater London

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 34 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Improve the Lee Valley rail infrastructure– Significantly improve the accessibility of the Lea Valley through rail and interchange infrastructure investments • Develop a new orbital transit system – Creation of a new orbital transit system that enables car trips to be replaced • Increase mode interchange opportunities– Increased accessibility throughout the sub-region through improved connections and interchanges between existing public transport services • Provide better localised travel information – Encouraging the use of public transport through the provision of significantly improved public transport travel information • Encourage environmentally friendly transport modes – Using the development of additional pedestrian and cycle connections between residential and employment areas to encourage the increased utilisation of environmentally friendly modes of transport • Encourage freight and logistics operations – Establish the sub-region as London’s gateway to the UK for freight distribution and logistics with particular focus on the Lea Valley and areas close to the M25

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 35 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 4 Existing Employment Land Supply

A key component of this study has been a visual field of employment land in North London are summarised survey of employment land clusters located within the as follows. North London Boroughs of Barnet, Enfield, Haringey and Waltham Forest. This survey was undertaken in • A total of 104 employment land clusters identified March/April 2005 to identify key existing employment and surveyed within North London containing land characteristics such as the amount of land used 2,402 individual employment sites. for employment uses, distribution of existing • The Gross Employment Land covered by these employment land uses, typical cluster size and site clusters was 742ha, equating to about 3% of the floorspace distributions, and general site quality and North London gross area. operational issues. • This area however includes a range of both public and private roads and open space along with the The North London employment land supply results are employment sites that are the focus of the survey. outlined below while individual borough results are Once these have been removed from the data provided in Sections 7 to 10. then North London is left with approximately 670ha of Net Employment Land (around 90% of 4.1 Gross and Net Employment Land the total area surveyed). • The vast majority of this Net Employment Land is A total of 104 North London employment clusters were located within Enfield (359ha which is 54% of the mapped during the visual field survey work. All of these total) with lesser amounts found in Waltham sites were identified through consultation with officers Forest (135ha or 20%) and Haringey (121ha or from the relevant local Council and were digitally 18%). Only a limited amount was found within mapped to produce a database of employment land Barnet (56ha or 8%). data within North London. A summary of the key information from this database is provided in Table 4.1 The locations of all of these North London employment below. Key conclusions regarding the overall quantum clusters are shown on the four A1 Existing Land Use Maps that are provided with this report.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 36 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 4.1 Gross Employment Land Gross Gross Number of Net Employment Gross Borough Employment Land Area Number of Sites Employment Land Clusters Land (ha) Area (ha) as Percentage (ha) Borough (%) Barnet 20 228 61.3 55.7 8,653 0.7 Enfield 25 807 404.2 359.1 8,192 4.9 Haringey 25 715 133.2 120.6 2,950 4.5 Waltham Forest 34 652 143.3 134.6 3,866 3.7 Total 104 2,402 742.0 669.9 23,661 3.1 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

4.2 Land for Industrial/Warehousing Uses survey and previous employment land studies in Greater London. A wider range of land uses in The analysis of employment land in North London employment areas are identified from this work than needs to focus on the level of Net Employment Land would be generally be expected under the B2/B8 that is actually used for employment generating General Industrial and Storage and Distribution Use industrial and distribution activities. Analysis therefore Class classification. For example the following activities needs to exclude uses that could not reasonably be were found to be typically located within employment considered to fall into these categories. Net areas from North London to the Lower Lea Valley and employment land minus inappropriate land uses London Riverside: therefore equates to Net Employment Land in Industrial/Warehousing Use. • motor vehicle sales • public transport maintenance facilities and depots Halcrow has developed a bottom up employment land • taxi and car hire businesses definition based on the typical range of employment • council depots and vehicle storage areas land uses that are found within Greater London • renting of machinery and equipment 8 employment land , developed from the visual land • construction support activities

8 This typical range is based on the data collected during this study, the Lower Industrial Land Study (URS, 2003), and Leaside Arc Business Survey and Lea Business Survey (URS, 2004), Barking and Dagenham and Havering Planning Policy Review (URS, 2003).

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 37 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc ƒ Entertainment, recreational and sporting All of these uses however are not generally considered activities to be B2/B8 uses (though they are often found adjacent to these uses). Rather they are usually considered to 4.2.1 Analysis of Net Employment Land in be Sui Generis (i.e. a use on its own). As a result a Industrial/Warehousing Use broad employment use definition has been Table 4.2 showed that using the NLELS employment developed by taking into account the general land use definition, 2,041 employment sites were likelihood of the activity to be located within a identified within North London (85% of total identified Greater London employment area. This is presented sites) and these sites cover an area of 589ha (88% of 9 in Table 4.2 . the net employment area). The most significant land use categories by both site numbers and land areas are Along with the sectoral definition, a range of other wholesale, warehousing, and motor vehicle sales which activities have also been defined to allow for the combined account for 46% of employment sites (943 practical limitations of the visual survey process. These sites) and 41% of employment site land area (239ha). include ‘multiuse’, ‘under construction’, ‘vacant or derelict’ and ‘unknown’. In comparison the bottom three land use categories by site area are textile, wood and paper products, and During the survey a range of other non-employment public administration (SIC 17 to 21 and 75). Combined land related activities were also identified within the these categories account for just 17ha of employment employment cluster boundaries but excluded from the site land area (3%) and 95 employment sites (5%). analysis. These activities included: Also from Table 4.2 a range of other relevant ƒ Residential information can also be derived. ƒ Retail ƒ Hotels, restaurants, and bars • A relatively small number of sites (39 sites ƒ Office based businesses covering and area of 9ha) were identified as being ƒ Education facilities multi use. These typically consist of older multi­ ƒ Health and social welfare facilities storey buildings with different uses on separate floors. • A surprisingly small amount of construction activity was identified, although this may have been

9 affected by the timing of the survey work. A total of It is noted that the NLELS definition of industrial/warehousing uses is broader 10 sites were found to be under construction than used in the RTP Greater London study. This reflects the more detailed understanding of uses in North London. covering an area of 6ha.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 38 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 4.2 Net Employment Land in Industrial/warehousing uses (NLELS Definition) Percentage of Net Number of Percentage of Sites Net Employment Land Use Employment Land Employment Sites (%) Land (ha) (%) Food and Tobacco (SIC 15 to 16 and 55.5) 78 3.8 37.9 6.4 Textile (SIC 17 to 19) 58 2.8 7.0 1.2 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20 to 21) 29 1.4 4.3 0.7 Printing (SIC 22) 97 4.8 12.3 2.1 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23 to 26) 40 2.0 14.7 2.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27 to 36) 100 4.9 26.0 4.4 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 33 1.6 22.0 3.7 Construction (SIC 45) 53 2.6 8.5 1.4 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 213 10.4 38.7 6.6 Wholesale (SIC 51) 483 23.7 108.0 18.3 Warehousing (SIC 63) 247 12.1 91.8 15.6 Transport (SIC 60) 41 2.0 18.8 3.2 Utilities (SIC 40 to 41) 10 0.5 19.8 3.4 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 36 1.8 9.8 1.7 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 30 1.5 12.6 2.1 Public Administration (SIC 75) 8 0.4 5.2 0.9 Multi Use 39 1.9 9.4 1.6 Under Construction 10 0.5 5.6 1.0 Vacant or Derelict 179 8.8 95.8 16.3 Unknown 257 12.6 40.8 6.9 Total 2,041 100.0 589.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 39 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Around 16% of the employment site area large employment cluster area is located within (equating to 179 employment sites and 96ha Enfield and just over one third is found within the employment area) was either vacant or derelict. Brimsdown Industrial Area (which has a net This is significantly higher than the 7.4% that was cluster employment area of 115.1ha). identified during December 200310. • Small employment clusters (0.0 to 2.0ha) make up • In fact the proportion of vacant or derelict is likely around two fifths of the employment clusters to be actually higher than this as some of the sites surveyed and are predominantly located in Barnet identified as unknown (257 employment sites and and Waltham Forest. A smaller number are found 41ha of employment land) are also likely to be in Enfield and tend to be located away from the vacant or derelict; however it was not possible to main employment land corridor of the Lea Valley. confirm this on the day of the survey. • The majority of the intermediate employment land clusters (2.1 to 15.0ha) are located in Waltham 4.3 Area and Floorspace Analysis Forest and Haringey and account for 49% of the North London employment land The area and floorspace analysis focuses on the distribution of net cluster and site areas across North 4.3.2 Site Size Distribution London, along with the site floorspace distribution. The net area of employment sites within each cluster is also important in understanding the North London 4.3.1 Cluster Size Distribution employment land demand. Table 4.4 provides A key factor in the renewal and development viability of information on the distribution of site sizes across North existing gross employment land clusters will be the London. Key results that should be taken from this table cluster size. As a result an analysis of the collected include: survey data has been undertaken to review this issue. The results of this assessment are presented in Table • There is a broad spectrum of employment sites 4.3 and summarised below. found within North London from very small (less than 250m2) through to the extremely large 2 • Just under half the North London employment (100,000m plus) land is located within nine very large employment • The vast majority of the sites are small to medium clusters (9% of the identified clusters) each of with 55% of sites found within the range of 1 to 2 which is 15.1ha or larger. In addition 85% of this 1,000m . However these sites cover approximately 9% of the net North London employment site area or just under 0.6 million m2 (or 58ha). 10 Industrial and Warehousing Land Demand in London (RTP et al, 2004)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 40 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 4.3 Cluster Area Distributions Number of Clusters North London Cluster size - Net Employment Land Percentage Net Percentage Waltham Number of Barnet Enfield Haringey of Clusters Employment Employment (ha) Forest Clusters (%) Area (ha) Area (%) 0.0-1.0 7 2 1 7 17 16.3 11.9 1.8 1.1-2.0 5 3 9 7 24 23.1 35.5 5.3 2.1-5.0 4 5 5 15 29 27.9 99.1 14.8 5.1-15.0 4 8 10 3 25 24.0 255.4 33.7 15.1+ - 7 - 2 9 8.7 298.0 44.5 Total 20 25 25 34 104 100.0 669.9 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Table 4.4 Site Size Distribution Number of Sites North London Site Size - Net Employment Area Net Percentage Waltham Number of Percentage (m2) Barnet Enfield Haringey Employment Employment Forest Sites of Sites (%) 2 Area (m ) Area (%) 1-250 36 83 166 103 390 16.2 59,739 0.9 251-500 37 130 147 117 429 17.9 158,393 2.3 501-1,000 46 139 157 160 502 20.9 363,621 5.4 1,001-1,500 38 95 79 64 276 11.5 336,270 5.0 1,501-3,000 36 140 78 120 374 15.6 793,857 11.8 3,001-5,000 14 75 26 27 142 5.9 538,036 8.0 5,001-10,000 12 65 39 42 158 6.6 1,130,255 16.7 10,001-20,000 4 47 16 11 78 3.2 1,104,201 16.4 20,000+ 5 33 7 8 53 2.2 2,268,683 33.6 Total Sites 228 807 715 652 2,402 100.0

Total Area 556,552 3,593,731 1,257,976 1,344,798 6,753,055 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 41 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of • Around 4.9 million m2 of employment floorspace 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 33% of sites and has been identified within North London around 25% of net North London employment site • The vast majority of this floorspace is located area. This equates to just less than 1.7 million m2 within Enfield (55%). Significant amounts were (or 167ha). also located within Haringey (19%) and Waltham • Finally the top 12% of sites cover just over 4.5 Forest (19%) while only a limited amount was million m2 (or 450ha). This equates to around 67% found in Barnet (7%). of the net area covered by all North London • Around 5% of the identified employment sites employment sites. have no building currently located upon them (these are likely to include a fair number of the 4.3.3 Site Floorspace Distribution vacant or derelict sites) The site floorspace distribution results are outlined in Table 4.5 with the key findings including:

Table 4.5 Site Floorspace Distribution Number of Sites North London Site Floorspace Building Percentage 2 Waltham Number of Percentage Area (m ) Barnet Enfield Haringey Floorspace Available Forest Sites of Sites (%) 2 (m ) Floorspace (%) Zero 35 74 36 15 160 6.7 - - 1-250 53 109 213 200 575 23.9 79,710 1.6 251-500 30 106 127 127 390 16.2 142,650 2.9 501-1,000 54 135 130 114 433 18.0 309,141 6.2 1,001-1,500 18 82 63 63 226 9.4 278,509 5.6 1,501-3,000 16 115 76 68 275 11.4 578,928 11.7 3,001-5,000 10 81 27 24 142 5.9 542,498 11.0 5,001-10,000 7 59 31 27 124 5.2 878,713 17.8 10,001-20,000 3 23 9 10 45 1.9 624,855 12.6 20,000+ 2 23 3 4 32 1.3 1,513,955 30.6 Total Sites 228 807 715 652 2,402 100.0

Total Floorspace 339,454 2,742,291 939,117 928,097 4,948,958 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 42 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size potential site layout issues and constraints, and a range are located on approximately 25% of employment of potential environmental issues. sites. In addition almost 44% of employment sites The key information collected is presented within have small to medium sized buildings in a range of Tables 4.6, 4.7 and 4.8. sizes between 251 and 1,500m2. • Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of In summary the following are the key findings from this between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 17% information: of employment sites. While just under 9% of employment sites contain large to very large • The building age and condition information was buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 272,000m2. collected for almost all sites. This shows that the employment land building stock within the North 4.4 Site Quality and Other Issues London is generally quite good with the vast majority of buildings being identified as ‘Good’ or A range of information on general site quality and other ‘Reasonable’ and almost two thirds of buildings relevant issues was also undertaken during the North having an age of 30 years or less. London employment land survey work. This information is focused on the age and conditions of buildings,

Table 4.6 Building Age and Condition Age of Buildings North London Condition of Percentage Buildings 1900 to 1944 1945 to 1964 1965 to 1984 1985 to 2005 Unknown Total (%) Good 5 8 105 989 28 1,135 47.3 Reasonable 28 67 346 438 36 915 38.1 Poor 4 41 64 28 8 145 6.0 Very Poor - 4 6 3 1 14 0.6 Unknown 3 9 17 32 132 193 8.0 Total 40 129 538 1,490 205 2,402 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 43 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 4.7 Site Layout and Constraints Number of Sites North London Site Layout Issues Percentage of Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Total Sites Sites (%) Poor HGV Access 8 31 55 3 97 4.0 No Parking On or Adjacent to the Site 49 84 46 37 216 9.0 Sloping Ground 25 3 - - 28 1.1 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Table 4.8 Site Environmental Issues Number of Sites North London Site Environmental Issues Percentage of Barnet Enfield Haringey Waltham Forest Total Sites Sites (%) Potential Contaminative Use 44 37 33 Not Collected 114 4.7 Potential Noise Issues 31 13 39 Not Collected 83 3.5 Potential Air Quality Issues 26 23 19 Not Collected 68 2.8 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

• The site layout and constraints information was - Sloping ground was generally not a problem also collected for the majority of sites and this across North London with the exception of found the following information one or two Barnet Clusters - Only a limited number of sites had ‘Poor HGV • Information on site environmental issues was not Access’ arrangements and these were largely collected for the majority of the sites and in located within Enfield and Haringey. particular no information was collected for - Around one tenth of employment sites were Waltham Forest sites. As a result only minor found to have ‘No Parking On or Adjacent to environmental issues were identified. Given the the Site’ and this was largely evenly spread employment land uses located within North across all four Boroughs. London (such as printing, car repairs, chemical manufacture, etc) this is almost certain an understatement of the true case.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 44 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 5 Employment Land Demand

5.1 Approach which a resultant demand for sites and premises can be calculated. In order to ‘convert’ these net This section reviews the current and forecast demand employment change forecasts by sector to estimates of for employment land in North London. The approach to employment land and floorspace demand, we have the demand analysis centres around achieving a used a conversion matrix with employment densities rigorous employment demand forecast informed by gathered from published information and previous consultations and review of studies undertaken at a studies. To convert employment floorspace to the local level, in a ‘bottom-up’ approach that underpins the employment land requirements plot ratios assumptions local employment forecasts and scenarios developed have been made. later in this chapter. The bottom up analysis included: Each of the key assumptions in the method • Desk Study – A number of documents have been (employment forecasting, employment densities, plot obtained throughout the study, including; previous ratios) is discussed below. employment land assessments, employment forecasts as well as more general background 5.2 Employment Forecasts references at the district to regional level. • Consultation – Semi-structured consultation with Within the scope of the study a bespoke set of North key officers from the four boroughs as well as London employment forecasts were developed. The regional and local business organisations were core NLELS forecasts are locally based forecasts undertaken throughout February 2005 to March developed specifically for the study using PACEC’s in 2005 house model, LEPS (Local Economic Profiling System). • Market Review – A local assessment of property In addition, a series of GLA consistent employment market demand provided by Glenny LLP and used forecasts have been developed for comparative as a key source of up to date local information purposes to meet the GLA requirement that consistent projections are used for planning and policy purposes The process for assessing employment land demand is within the GLA group of organisations. shown in Figure 5.1 overleaf. The level of employment land demand in the study area is generated by forecasting the level of workplace employment from

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 45 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Source: PACEC Figure 5.1 Method for Forecasting Employment Land Demand

5.2.1 The NLELS Employment Forecasts The LEPS forecast of national GDP is based on PACEC’s LEPS model utilises data from the Annual published forecasts and takes into account a wide Business Inquiry (and its predecessors), the Labour range of factors. These include international economic Force Survey and the Census of Population. The performance, the international competitiveness of approach to forecasting local employment involves a industries including the effects of sterling exchange rate four-step process: movements against the dollar and the Euro, confidence and expectations, indebtedness, and macro-economic • Estimate national economic growth (measured by policy, the setting of interest rates by the Bank of GDP) England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the • Estimate national industrial employment growth fiscal stance of government. (based on national GDP) • Estimate local relative performance National employment by industry is forecast by • Calculate local employment growth by industry analysing past changes in employment in relation to based on national growth, local performance and past changes in GDP (this encapsulates structural and local structure productivity changes) and by taking into account known factors in each sector. Local and regional performance is forecast by analysing past changes in employment

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 46 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc by industry in relation to employment by industry 5.2.3 Comparison of Regional and North London nationally with adjustments made in the light of the local Forecasts research gathered as part of the consultations Table 5.1 presents the regional level forecasts produced by both the NLELS and GLA methods and The forecast generates employment demand shows that the NLELS forecast is more optimistic than projections using the quantitative and qualitative the GLA forecast, predicting an increase in the total sources by use class up to the end of the planning number of jobs of 19% compared to a GLA increase of period, supplemented by a partial Labour Market 11%. Much of the difference is due to health and care Balance Sheet analysis to compare the employment services, public administration and construction demand forecasts with labour supply forecasts at an sectors, which account for the majority of growth in the aggregated level, in order to assess the match between NLELS forecast. However, the change in the the two. manufacturing sector12 is very similar between the forecasts with NLELS forecasting a 32% fall in 5.2.2 GLA Employment Forecasts employment compared to a 33% fall in the GLA The GLA have published a set of interim borough level forecasts. Many of the other variations between the two 11 employment projections for the period to 2016 that forecasts such as ‘wholesale’ may be attributable to the have been calculated using the ‘70:30 weighting way that the base data has been aggregated into sector methodology’ adopted in the London Plan (i.e. a 70 per categories. cent weight was given to site capacity based projections and a 30 per cent weight to trend based The disaggregation of these forecasts to the North projections. The forecast provides an indication of London sub-regional level is shown in Table 5.2. The employment growth by sector at the regional level and table clearly shows that the NLELS forecast is even forecasts of total employment growth for each borough. more optimistic at the sub-regional level. Two key These estimates have been converted by PACEC into factors in this are: (i) the NLELS forecasts have been forecasts of employment growth across the various adjusted to reflect bottom-up analysis of the sub­ employment sectors for each borough, using historic regional economy, and (ii) the ‘70:30 methodology’ trends in employment in each borough constrained by used by the GLA forecasts which influence the the totals in the forecasts provided. The resulting data locational distribution of growth across London. has been reviewed and agreed with the GLA.

12 ‘Manufacturing’ is taken as the sum of the following sectors in Table 5.1: 11 GLA; Current Issues Note 4: Interim borough level employment projections to Chemical manufacture, Hi-Tech metal man/engineering, Non-metallic, non­ 2016, May 2005 chemical man. and Trad metal man/engineering.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 47 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 5.1 Greater London Employment Forecasts (2001-2016) as 22 Sector SIC13 NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment base Sector 2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Agriculture/Extraction 8,200 5,000 -39% 10,900 7,500 -31% Chemical manufacture 29,100 16,800 -42% 30,700 17,700 -43% Hi-Tech metal man/engineering 16,800 7,600 -55% 17,700 7,800 -56% Non-metallic, non-chemical man. 181,400 140,900 -22% 191,000 144,000 -25% Trad metal man/engineering 56,200 28,600 -49% 59,500 29,600 -50% Electricity, gas, water, waste 21,900 19,800 -10% 24,700 25,700 4% Construction 216,500 246,900 14% 209,800 138,000 -34% Motor vehicle sale, repair 63,700 56,100 -12% 65,600 69,400 6% Wholesale 182,700 153,100 -16% 188,000 188,600 0.3% Food retail 126,800 149,500 18% 124,800 141,500 13% Other retail 283,400 311,500 10% 279,000 296,500 6% Hotels and restaurants 296,900 443,100 49% 288,400 410,000 42% Transport, storage, communications 363,900 375,000 3% 372,400 327,000 -12% Financial intermediation 335,100 365,100 9% 360,200 354,000 -2% Property, renting 125,600 163,400 30% 122,200 169,600 39% Computing, R&D 144,300 161,500 12% 140,000 166,100 19% Professional business services 470,700 668,700 42% 455,500 687,900 51% Other business services 414,300 434,900 5% 402,200 447,400 11% Public admin, defence 208,000 243,900 17% 210,100 170,000 -19% Education 271,000 462,500 71% 277,300 329,200 19% Health, care 348,900 501,000 44% 357,100 355,900 -0.4% Personal services 365,200 451,100 24% 358,500 537,800 50% Total 4,530,600 5,405,900 19% 4,545,800 5,021,000 11% Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, GLA 2005 Notes: 1. Figures rounded to the nearest 100. 2. Percentages may not add due to rounding

13 Variations in 2001 data between the two forecasts results from the ‘de-spiking’ of source data within each forecast to remove erroneous fluctuations in raw data.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 48 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 5.2 North London Employment Forecasts (2001-2016) as 22 Sector SIC14 NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment base Sector 2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Agriculture/Extraction 533 392 -26% 1,450 585 -60% Chemical manufacture 3,097 2,570 -17% 3,438 3,321 -3% Hi-Tech metal man/engineering 1,263 614 -51% 1,420 775 -45% Non-metallic, non-chemical man. 15,528 9,488 -39% 17,251 11,674 -32% Trad metal man/engineering 8,604 3,025 -65% 9,623 3,833 -60% Electricity, gas, water, waste 1,816 1,691 -7% 3,337 2,538 -24% Construction 28,083 24,668 -12% 28,969 15,614 -46% Motor vehicle sale, repair 7,652 7,168 -6% 8,196 8,819 8% Wholesale 21,294 17,701 -17% 22,779 20,740 -9% Food retail 16,752 20,235 21% 16,776 16,768 0% Other retail 29,570 37,524 27% 29,693 32,176 8% Hotels and restaurants 20,151 28,360 41% 20,722 28,388 37% Transport, storage, communications 25,530 30,038 18% 24,560 21,559 -12% Financial intermediation 9,651 8,830 -9% 13,767 10,968 -20% Property, renting 10,372 16,462 59% 11,356 19,077 68% Computing, R&D 8,783 7,644 -13% 9,626 8,559 -11% Professional business services 19,972 28,843 44% 21,830 32,782 50% Other business services 25,591 26,346 3% 28,160 29,078 3% Public admin, defence 17,305 21,540 24% 16,858 13,711 -19% Education 32,080 58,446 82% 33,078 41,397 25% Health, care 39,400 50,986 29% 40,722 35,367 -13% Personal services 22,412 24,588 10% 25,933 36,253 40% Total 365,439 427,159 17% 389,542 393,981 1% Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, GLA 2005 Notes: 1. Figures rounded to the nearest 100. 2. Percentages may not add due to rounding

14 Variations in 2001 data between the two forecasts results from the ‘de-spiking’ of source data within each forecast to remove erroneous fluctuations in raw data. This is by nature more pronounced at a more local level.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 49 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 5.2.4 North London Industrial and Warehousing London between 2001 and 2016. Key sectors of current Employment Forecasts demand are Construction (25%), Wholesale (19%) and From these total employment forecasts for North Transport (13%). While the first two sectors are London Table 5.3 has been derived to assess the forecast to decline in 2016 the overall employment in employment demand within the industrial/warehousing this sectors are forecast to employ approximately sectors (as defining in Section 4). These forecasts are 60,000 people, or 61% of total employment. The those taken forward to assess the demand for variation with the GLA forecast is explained primarily by employment land in the sub-region. the differing forecast views of the construction sector and the transport sector in the sub-region. The NLELS forecasts indicate a 14% fall in the industrial and warehousing employment in north

Table 5.3 North London Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment base Sector 2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 3,754 3,353 -10.7% 4,168 4,181 0.3% Textile (SIC 18-19) 3,911 488 -87.5% 4,293 630 -85.3% Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 1,093 481 -56.0% 1,217 610 -49.9% Printing (SIC 22) 4,336 3,718 -14.3% 4,864 4,417 -9.2% Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 3,097 2,570 -17.0% 3,438 3,321 -3.4% Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 12,301 5,087 -58.6% 13,751 6,445 -53.1% Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 1,040 1,211 16.4% 1,254 1,590 26.8% Construction (SIC 45) 28,083 24,668 -12.2% 28,969 15,614 -46.1% Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 7,652 7,168 -6.3% 8,196 8,819 7.6% Wholesale (SIC 51) 21,294 17,701 -16.9% 22,779 20,740 -9.0% Warehousing (SIC 63) 2,016 4,123 104.5% 1,889 2,805 48.5% Transport (SIC 60-62) 14,373 17,438 21.3% 13,464 12,213 -9.3% Utilities (SIC 40-41) 776 480 -38.1% 2,082 948 -54.5% Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 2,002 3,408 70.2% 2,223 4,309 93.8% Post and Communications (SIC 64) 7,779 5,681 -27.0% 7,810 4,278 -45.2% Total 113,507 97,575 -14.0% 120,400 90,918 -24.5% Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003, GLA 2005

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 50 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 5.3 Assessing Employment Land Demand rateable floorspace 2003 (Manufacturing and Warehousing). While there are variations in the figures The employment forecasts are converted to land at the borough level the most significant variation is in demand by making assumptions on employment Enfield. We believe this is because the survey has densities (to convert to employment floorspace) and potentially over estimated the amount of floorspace in plot ratios (to convert to employment land). These Enfield because of the large number of high bay 15 assumptions are set out below. warehouses in the borough .

5.3.1 Employment Densities In terms of the level of employment in this occupied The main sources of potential information regarding space we are reliant on ABI within manufacturing, employment densities considered include: wholesale, transport and construction as representative of the employment areas. This represents an • Implied densities based on published information underestimate of the number of workplace jobs as the on the number of jobs in each borough and survey has indicated a significant amount of retail uses. estimates of the amount of industrial land The estimates of employment density from the study • Published sources and studies, we examine ratios and wider borough data are reasonable and reinforce a from guidance documents (ODPM, 2004) and the number of features about land use in the study area. pan-London study of Industrial and Warehousing Land (GLA, 2005) Published Employment Densities The Employment Land Reviews Guidance Note (ODPM Broad Employment Densities 2004) provides some details on some key work As a comparative guide between the boroughs, Table examining employment densities and includes studies 5.4 shows broad employment densities calculated for carried out by RTP in 1997 for SERPLAN and research industrial and warehousing land using details on the by DTZ (2004). This is summarised in Table 5.5, below. total amount of rateable floorspace from the Office of the Deputy Prime Ministers (ODPM) data on floorspace and rateable value for commercial and industrial properties in 2003. This is compared to information from this study’s survey of land in each borough (see Section 4) and both are then translated into employment densities (gross floorspace per worker).

15 There is a significant proportion of high bay warehouses in Enfield and the Table 5.4 compares the occupied building floorspace number of internal stories are estimated from an external visual inspection to give estimated by the NLELS survey with the ODPM an estimate of internal floorspace.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 51 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 5.4 Broad Estimate of Employment Densities, North London Waltham North Sectors Barnet Enfield Haringey Forest London Estimate of existing workplace jobs - ABI (Manufacturing, 24,759 33,086 20,978 16,653 95,476 Construction, Wholesale & Transport - workplace jobs) [A] Estimated area of occupied building floorspace – NLELS survey (m2) 323,333 2,612,273 859,563 963,323 4,758,491 [B] Area of occupied industrial land - ODPM rateable floorspace (m2 - 403,000 1,500,700 867,400 748,000 3,519,000 Manufacturing and Warehouse) [C] Broad Employment Density (gross floorspace / worker m2) - NLELS 16 45 41 45 37 survey [C/A] Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003

Table 5.5 Published Employment Densities, for London and the South East Floor Space per Worker (m2) Floor Space per Worker (m2) Sectors RTP, 1997 DTZ Pieda, 2004 Offices 17.9 18.3 Industrial 31.8 38.2 Manufacturing 29.7 - Warehousing (general) 40.1 - Warehousing (with loading bays, e.g. DIY) - 78.2 Source: ODPM 2004

RTP recognise in their study of industrial and we propose to use the employment densities shown in warehousing land across London (ODPM, 2004) that Table 5.6. there is a significant lack of ‘up-to date research on employment density ratios and on the quality of jobs it It should be noted that employment densities for new provides’ and use estimates of 30m2 per worker for industrial development will tend to be higher than industrial workspace and 40m2 per worker for existing employment densities as new industrial warehousing floorspace. Based on the above analysis development tends to have a greater utilization.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 52 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Warehousing development as a result of advances in area of industrial sites (total area of industrial sites up information technology has seen a shift toward the use to site boundaries and includes local roads and parking of computers in logistics, for example to communicate spaces, etc.) for sites with buildings on them. Plot ratios orders between depots and head office demanding a are used to calculate the employment land demanded greater amount of office space. In addition warehousing after employment densities have been used to calculate has also seen an increase in the use of hand packers the amount of floorspace required in the forecast. to gather and pack web based orders.

5.3.2 Plot ratios Plot ratios are the total gross floor area of a building (including walls and corridors, etc.) divided by the gross

Table 5.6 NLELS Employment Densities Broad Employment Land Use Category Employment Density (Gross Floorspace per Worker m2) Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 25-30 Textile (SIC 18-19) 25-30 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 25-30 Printing (SIC 22) 25-30 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 25-30 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 25-30 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 25-30 Construction (SIC 45) 25-30 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 25-30 Wholesale (SIC 51) 40-50 Warehousing (SIC 63) 40-50 Transport (SIC 60-62) 40-50 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 40-50 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 40-50 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 40-50 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 53 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Our demand assessment utilises the plot ratio of 45% in employment between 2001 and 2005 is primarily from the RTP Industrial & Warehousing Land Demand associated with three sectors: metals and machinery; in London study, which was derived from ‘consultations construction, and wholesale. Beyond this period, while with agents and our own experience’16. Sensitivities these sectors continue to decline, the fall is tested around this are 40% and 50%17. compensated by growth in other sectors.

5.3.3 Estimate of Employment Land Demand With regards to the demand across the four Boroughs, Based on the assumptions outlined above, Tables 5.7 the greatest fall in demand is anticipated in Barnet to 5.9 present the North London employment land (51ha) and Waltham Forest (43ha), whereas increasing demand and change over the period 2001 to 2016. demand is predicted for Enfield. Detailed analysis at the Given the ranges of the demand parameters discussed Borough level is provided in Part 2 of this report. above, the table shows two sensitivities associated with a high and low employment density calculation, both This contrasts with the GLA based employment based upon a core plot ratio assumption of 45%. The land assessment that forecasts demand for mid-range of these calculations is considered the core employment land will fall by approximately 199ha in demand estimate for Net Employment Land in North the period 2001-2016, with a loss of 90ha in the London. period 2005-2016. The reasons for this are attributable to the employment forecast base explained above. For The NLELS forecast estimates that over the period example, the decline of employment in the construction 2001-2016 the demand for employment land will fall sector contributes almost 45ha of this effect. by approximately 95ha. However, the main fall in demand occurs between 2001 and 2005 (-83ha); and 5.4 Sensitivity Testing between 2005 and 2016 the demand for net employment land falls by only 12ha (13%). The main Sensitivity testing of the NLELS forecasts have been factor behind the reduced rate of land loss is that there undertaken to help establish potential demand is greater employment growth in sectors with lower parameters. This testing has included looking at the employment densities, meaning that the ratio of land Plot Ratio assumption and alternative employment per employee increases over the period. The decrease demand scenarios.

5.4.1 Plot Ratio Assumptions Sensitivity testing has been undertaken using high and 16 RTP: Industrial & Warehousing Land Demand in London, August 2004 (page low plot ratio assumptions of 50% and 40% 100) respectively. 17 Note: it is also possible to derive bespoke plot ratios specifically for North London sites but these have not been used in the scope of this study.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 54 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 5.6 Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 791 716 711 704 705 836 738 731 690 656 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 971 880 874 866 868 1,026 906 897 848 807 Mid-range 881 798 793 785 786 931 822 814 769 732 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding

Table 5.7 Change in Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -87 -11 -180 -82 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -104 -12 -219 -99 Mid-Range -95 -12 -199 -90 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding

Table 5.8 Change in Net Employment Land Demand by Borough (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Barnet -51 -9 -57 -12 Enfield 14 26 -47 -24 Haringey -14 -12 -31 -24 Waltham Forest -43 -17 -63 -30 North London Sub-Region -95 -12 -199 -90 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 55 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Based on the high plot ratio assumption of 50%, the recognised that only a number of policy and transport NLELS forecast indicates a demand fall of 86ha for the proposals will be in place by 2016 or partially realised. period 2001-2016 (a fall of 11ha for the period 2005­ Given the large number of initiatives underway, this 2016). Using a low ratio of 40%, change in land scenario only focuses on the most significant, namely: demand 2001-2016 is -107ha (a fall of 13ha in the period 2005-2016). • Proposals and priorities within the London Plan • Growth Area implications (LSCP Corridor, Thames 5.4.2 Demand Scenarios Gateway) Within the timeframe of the forecast period there are a • London Transport Policies range of potential initiatives, policies, market responses, etc. that will impact the demand for The above scenario has been translated into impacts employment land across North London. This section on the various North London employment sectors using assesses the potential impact of various scenarios on various adjustments to the forecast. Key scenario demand. Three scenarios have been generated: assumptions:

• Policy-Led scenario • Consultations revealed that local organisation did • Market-Led scenario not perceive that the growth areas would have a • Olympics scenario significant effect on employment land demand even for high-value added industries Policy Led Scenario • Policy indicates renewal of some urban town This scenario examines the impact of key policies on centres – points to future land demand for mixed­ market behaviour for land use and is based on a review use development (retail, housing and office of available policy documents and consultations18. The development), especially if renewing sites and analysis period to 2016 does not allow for analysis to higher density development examine the full growth potential of major policies such • Office development mostly in terms of Enterprise as the Thames Gateway development. It is therefore Hub / Business centres and cluster development along sector lines i.e. creative / cultural sector. More likely to be associated with mixed-use development. 18 The London Plan Spatial Development Strategy, The London Economic • Renewal of, rather than development of land Development Strategy, North London Draft Sub-Regional Development specifically for manufacturing land Framework (Working - March 2005), Haringey City Growth Strategy, Waltham • Transport to enhance economic development Forest Regeneration and Investment Strategy, Haringey Employment Study, Atkins, Nov. 2004 prospects especially for Waltham Forest, Tottenham Hale, Leyton. Will have particular

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 56 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc importance for prospects for land use in distribution • There are no labour market constraints, either in and logistics. the supply of skills or labour force • Enfield to benefit most from distribution and • We assume that the ‘target markets’ identified in transport related economic activities the North London Product Review are able to • Plans for education developments for Middlesex develop to their full extent over the forecast Campus. Health sector to grow by Whipps Cross. period, namely: manufacturing, distribution, retail and leisure, office based services and creative Market Led Scenario industries This scenario broadly assumes that demand will be • The scenario envisages a significant increase in driven by market forces which are not limited by policy the amount of retail across the study sites interventions and in simple terms gives the market the (particularly those in proximity to roads) as well as opportunity to develop what it wants in North London. It a greater realisation of the potential for office also assumes that some of the infrastructure (as well as based services in some boroughs (despite little policy) barriers are lifted to enable the market to realise current demand for the existing stock) ‘pent-up’ demand. This analysis has been shaped from • Much of the marginal study sites or those adjacent Glenny’s market assessment as well as the North housing stock will be developed with new high 19 London Product Review which examined North density housing, this will also support growth in London as a location for business investment. Key the construction sector scenario assumptions include: • There is also greater scope for growth in the personal services and health sectors, particularly • Land owners and developers will push for the with children and elderly care. development of the most profitable use of land, pushing out the least profitable uses (mostly Olympic Scenario commercial and industrial businesses) Underpinning the London Olympics Games 2012 Bid • Businesses are free to relocate to and from any (L2012) is the development of the Lower Lea Valley, other location in order to keep their operational providing physical environmental and socio-economic costs to a minimum (‘footloose across the region’) regeneration benefits for the communities who live and • London’s growing population will maintain a high work there. demand for housing The Masterplan Area occupies a total surface area of roughly 7 km² incorporating four boroughs (Waltham Forest, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and Hackney). The area is largely characterised by remnants of past 19 North London Product Review: Locum Destination Consulting, August 2004. industrial and residential uses and major areas of

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 57 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc derelict land. Low intensity industrial activities and land support to help with relocation, including training and uses dominate, in the form of old works, storage direct grants. facilities, compounds and warehouse / distribution centres; interspersed with a number of business parks, The above scenario has been translated into impacts of varying quality. on the various North London employment sectors using the following assumptions: A comprehensive redevelopment of this area is proposed, likely to start in 2006 and to be complete by • Geographically, North London would be well 2020 (legacy development). The development will placed to receive relocated firms, displaced by involve the construction of facilities including: development, though rateable values for commercial and industrial land and the potential • the main Olympic Stadium and supporting facilities for displacement of retail, (reliant on local • the main Press Centre and International catchments) may create some problems. Waltham Broadcast Centre, Olympic Village and other Forest would provide the best location in terms of supporting facilities rateable value, Barnet and Enfield are significantly • major infrastructure and services more costly. • bridges, land bridges and underpasses • It is expected that all North London boroughs will • site regrading, remediation and enabling receive short term (in the years preceding and engineering works following 2012) positive impacts on employment and which in this model translates to land In addition the Post-Olympic Legacy will also involve demand, especially in construction and the construction of residential, business, industrial, businesses along the supply chain, including retail, leisure and recreation, educational and those that may import and finish goods such as community facilities as well as the creation of further souvenirs. A large number of casual and part time open space. jobs will be created by the Olympics, for example stewards, ticket sellers, etc. which will be filled by It is estimated by the LDA that more than 10,000 jobs individuals from the wider London pool of labour. would be created in the local area, and up to 70,000 • The medium term may see some competition from volunteers would be required to help run the Olympic new business opportunities arising from the and Paralympics Games in 2012. The successful bid Masterplan development, although it is possible means that it will be necessary to re-locate local that the combined effects of improvements in businesses (approximately 5,500 jobs), and the LDA is infrastructure required to deliver the Masterplan as working with local boroughs to develop packages of well as the creation of a new sub-regional focus

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 58 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc may act as a catalyst for development in the wider employment increase predicted under the Market-led North London area scenario with the lowest forecast for the Olympic • It should be noted that consultations with local scenario. In terms of industrial and warehousing organisations revealed that they were less employment a similar picture emerges with the optimistic about the long term impact of the scenarios generated between 2,066 and 2,917 Olympics on the study area. additional jobs over and above NLELS core forecasts.

Comparison of Scenarios As seen in Table 5.10, this translates to very little Table 5.9 shows the net employment contribution made difference in land demand, showing a fall of between ­ by each scenario over and above the core NLELS 85ha and -103ha for high and low employment forecast. All scenarios indicate there would be densities respectively. additional employment created, the greatest

Table 5.9 Net Employment contribution by Scenario, 2001-2016 and 2005-2016 Policy Led (ha) Market Led (ha) Olympic (ha) NLELS Land NLELS Land NLELS Land All Sectors All Sectors All Sectors Definition Definition Definition Employment Change 2001 – 2016 9,393 2,917 10,266 2,354 3,283 2,066 Employment Change 2005 – 2016 8,613 2,685 9,395 2,156 3,183 1,966 Source: PACEC

Table 5.10 Net Employment Land Demand by Scenario (2001-2016) Policy Led (ha) Market Led (ha) Olympic (ha) 2001 2016 Change 2001 2016 Change 2001 2016 Change Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 791 706 -85 791 706 -85 791 705 -86 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 971 869 -102 971 869 -102 971 868 -103 Mid-Range 881 788 -94 881 788 -94 881 787 -94 Source: PACEC Note: Figures may not add due to rounding

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 59 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 5.5 Conclusions sensitive to the employment forecasting demand used, as demonstrated by the variation between The demand assessment for industrial and the NLELS and GLA demand estimates. warehousing land in North London provides the • The second point above is further illustrated by the following conclusions. fact that the three land demand scenarios – policy­ led, market-led and Olympic – indicate that the • In the period 2001-2016 the demand for Net impact on land demand would be negligible Employment Land in the sub-region is estimated because additional employment created would be to fall by 95ha. relatively small compared to total employment • In the period 2005-2016, however, the demand for growth; and because the majority of employment Net Employment Land in the sub-region is would not be created in industrial sectors (i.e. estimated to fall by only -12ha. This suggests that NLELS land use definition). in terms of the structural change the large fall in demand occurred in the period 2001-2005. • Two main reasons account for the slow down in the fall of structural demand in the period 2005­ 2016. Firstly, the decline in some of the traditional sectors in the economy is compensated for by other and newer sectors. Secondly, these sectors are associated with lower employment densities, which translate as an increase in land requirement per worker. • Forecast demand indicates that only the Borough of Enfield will have positive demand for land during 2001-2016. During this time period Barnet and Waltham Forest boroughs are expected to see the largest falls in industrial land demand. • The analysis indicates that the demand model is sensitive in a number of areas. Firstly, sensitivity to plot ratio assumptions is considered moderate with the testing providing a range of land demand change for the period 2001 to 2016 of between ­ 86ha and -107ha (i.e. a range of +/-12% from the core scenario. Secondly, demand is highly

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 60 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 6 North London Key Findings

6.1 Key Outcomes • This fall in demand will mainly result in a significantly reduced land requirement in the • The level of Net Employment Land in industrial / Boroughs of Barnet and Waltham Forest. warehousing use is 18% lower than gross • However, the demand assessment for the period employment land allocations in North London. 2005-2016 suggests that significant economic • A significant proportion of designated employment structuring has already taken place in the period land has been ‘effectively lost’ to non-employment 2001-2005 which reduces the potential land land related uses (including residential, retail and release in the period to 2016 to around 50ha. other uses). • Employment land supply is heavily concentrated 6.2 Employment land supply towards a small number of large employment areas and is also dominated by the provision in This study has provided a detailed analysis and Enfield. understanding of the employment land supply in the • The general quality of employment land in the North London sub-region through primary site survey. A sub-region is considered relatively good, with a total of 104 key North London employment clusters range of sites and premises providing a diverse were identified and mapped during the survey. offer for the market. However, this offer changes significantly across the four Boroughs in the sub­ The total land area of these 104 sites (including roads region, with the larger and more intense activities and public space) is estimated at 742ha or around 3% focused towards the eastern side of the sub­ of total land in the sub-region. However the analysis of region (in Enfield and Waltham Forest) these sites identified a total of 150 different • The level of vacant/derelict land in the sub-region employment land uses existing on these sites, a provides potential land release opportunity but this number of which can be classed as outside the is largely restricted to Enfield. classification of ‘industrial/warehousing’ uses. The • Employment in industrial/warehousing uses is removal of these sites results in the identification of the forecast to decrease by 14% in the period 2001­ level of employment land used industrial/warehousing’ 2016. The commensurate fall in demand for activities that equates to 589ha (79% of gross employment land in the period is estimated at employment land). This is referred to as ‘Net approximately 95ha. Employment Land in Industrial and Warehousing’ use. Of this figure, 96ha (16%) is vacant or derelict and

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 61 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 41ha (6%) is in ‘unclassified use’. An overall of the land study20, and the level could be considered as supply in North London is provided in Table 6.1 below. natural. It suggests a potential for any future land release.

Table 6.1 North London Land Supply Summary 6.2.1 Quality of Employment Land Area (ha) While the overall level of employment land stock is important, the quality and characteristics of the stock Gross employment land 742.0 are also important in understanding the relationship Net employment land (excluding roads and public 669.9 between supply and demand. The key characteristics open space) are summarised below. Net employment land in industrial/warehousing use 589.1 (including unclassified uses) • The most significant land uses by land area are Vacant or derelict land 95.8 wholesale, warehousing and motor vehicle ‘Unknown’ 40.8 sales/repair which combined account for 41% of Source: Halcrow (April 2005) employment land area. • Employment land is highly concentrated on a small number of large employment sites. Indeed, Two key conclusions can be drawn from this analysis: nine large employment areas account for 45% of net employment land in the sub-region. • First, what is demonstrated is that a significant • Equally there is a large concentration in Enfield proportion of the identified stock of designated which itself accounts for 85% of net employment employment land in North London has in fact been land in the sub-region (of which just over one-third lost to uses that are not classed as is located at Brimsdown Industrial Area). Barnet industrial/warehousing uses. The result is that and Haringey have no single employment areas of the ‘actual’ stock of industrial/warehousing over 15ha. sites and premises is significantly more • An estimated 4.9 million m2 of employment constrained than overall levels of employment floorspace has been identified in North London, land designations suggest. the vast majority (55%) located in Enfield. Whilst • Second, a significant proportion of employment Haringey and Waltham Forest each accounted for land in the North London is categorised as ‘vacant’, ‘derelict’ or ‘unknown’. This equates to 137ha of land from a gross total employment land figure of 742ha (18%). This percentage is above the level identified as vacant in the RTP 20 Industrial and Warehousing Land in London, (RTP et al, 2004)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 62 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 19% of floorspace stock, Barnet only accounted Table 6.2.While large falls are forecast in Barnet and for 7% (340,000 m2). Waltham Forest, demand would seem to be • In terms of the age and condition of employment consolidating towards Enfield as a location, with an buildings in North London, the survey indicates increase demand of 14ha for the period. that the stock is generally good with vast majority of buildings being identified as ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ (85%) and almost two thirds having Table 6.2 Land Demand Scenarios by Borough an estimated age of less than 30 years. Land Change Change • In terms of site specific constraints, only isolated requirements 2001 2005 problems were identified which did not reflect a in 2016 (ha) 2016 (ha) 2016 (ha) widespread problem in the sub-region. For Barnet 199 -51 -9 example only a limited number of sites had ‘Poor HGV Access’ arrangements (largely located within Enfield 316 14 26 Enfield and Haringey) and one tenth of Haringey 159 -14 -12 employment sites were found to have ‘No Parking Waltham Forest 111 -43 -17 On or Adjacent to the Site’. North London 786 -95 -12 6.3 Structural Change in Employment Land Source: PACEC Demand 6.4 ‘Land Requirement’ for North London With regards to demand, the forecasts for employment land are subject to a high level of sensitivity, reliant as The context for the NLELS study has always been the they are on employment forecasting data, employment RTP study published in August 2004 which from a density and plot ratios. strategic perspective established the ‘land requirement’ for London and its component sub-regions. This Under our base NLELS employment demand scenario analysis assumed that ‘at any point in time, the planned the forecast employment land demand in 2016 ranges supply and market demand for industrial/warehousing between 705ha and 868ha. This represents a fall in land will be in balance if supply equals the demand for demand between 2001-2016 of between 87ha and occupied land, plus margins of vacant land and vacant 104ha. Taking the mid-point, we estimate that floorspace to allow for smooth operation of the market’. employment land demand in 2016 will be 786ha, a fall of 95ha in the period 2001-2016. The distribution It also notes that policy needs to focus on change in of this fall in demand across each Borough is shown in supply and demand over the relevant planning period

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 63 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc with this change referred to as the ‘land requirement’ indicates a potential vacant land release of 36ha by (or land release if negative). In this respect the desired 2016. change in planned supply equals structural change in demand, plus required change in vacant land, plus Intensification has been considered through the required change in vacant floorspace, plus sensitivity in terms of employment density and plot intensification. ratios but is not translated into considerations on planned supply. The NLELS study provides a more detailed assessment of this potential ‘land requirement’ using locally The conclusion is that an employment land release generated supply and demand information. in the region of 123ha to 140ha (2001-2016) is possible without constraining the sub-regional As noted in Section 6.3 the change in demand for market. However, the analysis estimates that in the employment land is forecast to be between 87ha period 2005-2016 the potential land release required and 104ha for the period 2001-2016. However, it also is significantly lower at around 50ha, on the basis shows that in the period 2005-2016 demand only falls that the most significant structural change in the by around 12ha and implies that a relatively modest industrial/warehousing sectors has already taken adjustment to the supply of employment land is place. required for this period. The suggestion from this is that the adjustment to supply should have already occurred 6.4.1 Land Requirement by Borough to provide the current position of balance The land requirement will vary across the four Boroughs, as shown in Tables 6.3 and 6.4 which With regards to vacant land and floorspace, there summarise the land requirements for the periods 2001­ needs to be a natural level of vacant land to facilitate 2016 and 2005-2016. the effective operation of the market. Within North London the site survey identified that 95.8ha of In the former period, the greatest land release potential 21 industrial/warehousing land is vacant , which is higher falls in the Borough’s of Barnet and Waltham Forest, than the generally considered natural rate of around where most potential release is associated with 10%. Reducing vacant land to 10% of existing net demand change. Indeed, the location of vacant/derelict industrial/warehousing stock (approximately 60ha) land across the sub-region indicates that the level of vacant land in all but Enfield Borough approximates to a natural level of around 10% and therefore provides limited release potential. Enfield, while there is currently

21 a surplus of vacant/derelict land allowing for release of ‘Vacant land’ as defined by the survey includes vacant/derelict sites and sites up to 32ha, this land stock can be used to containing vacant/derelict floorspace.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 64 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc accommodate increased employment demand over the on the basis that structural demand change has already period, thus reducing the release potential. As noted occurred in the period to 2005. above, the release in 2005-2016 is significantly reduced

Table 6.3 North London Land Requirements, 2001-2016 North London Barnet (ha) Enfield (ha) Haringey (ha) Waltham Forest (ha) (ha) Change in Structural Demand -87 to -104 -46 to -57 +12 to +16 -13 to -15 -39 to -48 Change in Vacant Land required -36 - -32 -1ha -3 Total Land Requirement 2001-2016 -123 to -140 -46 to -57 -16 to -20 -14 to -16 -42 to -51 Source: PACEC

Table 6.4 North London Land Requirements, 2005-2016 North London Barnet (ha) Enfield (ha) Haringey (ha) Waltham Forest (ha) (ha) Change in Structural Demand -12 -8 to -10 +23 to +29 -11 to -13 -15 to -19 Change in Vacant Land -36 - -32 -1 -3 Total Land Requirement 2005-2016 -50 -8 to -10 -3 to -9 -12 to -14 -18 to -22 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 65 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc PART 2: BOROUGH LEVEL ANALYSIS

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 66 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 7 Barnet

7.1 Introduction served by the Northern line. Over ground services run through the borough (including Thames Link) with Barnet is a generally diverse borough extending out to various stops and some underground interconnections, the metropolitan greenbelt on the northern side of terminating at London’s Kings Cross and Moorgate. London and extending southwards to inside the A406 North Circular Road. Whilst the borough does not 7.2 Current Market Context directly abut the M25 it is within a few miles of junction 24. The A1 Barnet bypass runs through the west of the 7.2.1 Industrial Market borough providing connection to the M1 and A41 which, Barnet has a generally small and very fragmented combined with the A406 North Circular Road, offer industrial base with a scattering of sites across the excellent accessibility into Central London and the borough. As a result while the following areas could not West End. be identified as sub-areas they have been identified for their interest: There are various “regional” town centre areas throughout the borough, including Chipping Barnet, • New Southgate – Home to two significant North Finchley, Edgware and Golders Green. However employment clusters at Brunswick Park and the main retail focus is understandably the Brent Cross Brunswick Industrial Park. Brunswick Park is regional shopping centre, in the south of the borough. believed to be in the ownership of investor / In terms of road access, the borough has certainly developer builder and now partially let to Barnet benefited from London wide improvements and College. While some of the office buildings are infrastructure, including the upgrading of the A406 occupied, it is not anticipated that office demand North Circular Road and of course accessibility to the could provide full take up of this area. Brunswick M25 orbital motorway. The M1, A1 and A41 corridor Industrial Park is an early 1980s scheme that is provides excellent movement through the borough on a well occupied despite having access only from north south basis and is an undoubted benefit to residential areas. commercial occupiers. • Mill Hill Area – This includes medium sized industrial estates at Bittacy Business Centre, Mill Public transport in Barnet, aside from bus routes, tends Hill East and Mill Hill Industrial Estate, close to Mill to be focused to the east and west sides and is a mix of Hill Broadway over ground and underground services. High Barnet, • Colindale – Three almost adjacent clusters that Finchley Central, Edgware, Colindale and others are provide highly variable stock

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 67 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • The Hyde, Hendon – Two separate clusters, The situation of office buildings throughout the borough including the significant Garrick Industrial Estate is so fragmented but the following areas are which is relatively modern and well let highlighted: • Staples Corner – Directly opposite Brent Cross Shopping Centre, a historic industrial area but now • Areas such as the A1000 through Whetstone and becoming obsolete in parts, some areas having Finchley have a variety of detached office now reverted to the higher value retail and leisure buildings, of varying ages generally 1960s/1970s. use. Similar along the A5 around Hendon a similar situation occurs The future of Brunswick Park (Nortel) is not known at • The key “town centres” have their usual small the current time. At Brunswick Industrial Park we are office content, either in bespoke buildings or aware that the one significant vacant building is likely to above shops. The only clearly identified office be refurbished and split into three smaller units. Other “part” would be Brunswick Park, the former Nortel key industrial locations which still have relatively premises as discussed above. modern stock, including Finchley Industrial Centre, • Whilst demand does exist from local occupiers we Bittacy Business Centre, Garrick Industrial Estate and cannot perceive that in the near future any Lancaster Road Trading Estate are all relatively well speculative office development will be occupied and thus imminent redevelopment is unlikely. forthcoming.

7.2.2 Commercial Market 7.2.3 Housing Market In recent years the demand for office space in the north Whilst the borough in parts can feel highly urban, eastern sector of London has not been particularly overall mapping shows that Barnet has a very green strong, witnessed by the fact there has been no “core”, extending in parts to the boundary of the speculative office development for perhaps 15 years. Metropolitan green-belt. Housing stock is entirely In economic terms the local market place is not mixed, extending from the low density, extremely high prepared to pay rent which is adequate to finance the value, properties around High Barnet, into the southern build cost of new offices. The perceived notion that boundary and areas such as Cricklewood with smaller Central London based companies would out-source and lower value properties. Recent, and relatively their “back room” operation to cheap fringe locations significant, residential schemes in the borough would has not materialised to any great extent and thus office include over 150 flats above the North Finchley Arts demand in the borough has tended to come almost Centre; around 300 units built on the sites of the entirely from companies who are historically located or Professional Development Unit Finchley, Manor House service companies such as solicitors, accountants and Hospital, Ashmole School and St Stephen’s Hospital; local authorities. and a total of over 500 units at the former Friern Barnet

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 68 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Hospital. Major areas for housing regeneration in the and development / hi-tech and light industrial (B1b and borough have been identified at Stonegrove, Dollis B1c uses). No other employment areas are identified in Valley, Colindale, West Hendon and Cricklewood, and the Plan. Specific policies relevant to the NLELS study Mill Hill and will accommodate around 18,000 new include: homes over the next 5 to 15 years. • EMP1 – protecting the 18 primary industrial sites 7.3 Employment Land Supply and business parks from redevelopment for alternative uses. Outside of these sites This review of employment land supply within Barnet is redevelopment of existing employment locations is drawn from our field survey of identified employment possible where there is no prospect of industrial land clusters and sites within the Borough. The results development (EMP2). of this review are outlined below and cover the areas of • EMP4 – on the Northern Telecom site preference existing land supply and usage, site area and is given to proposals that cater for business, floorspace distributions, along with site quality and including offices, light industry and hi-tech other issues. activities. • EMP5 – restricts warehousing development to 7.3.1 Barnet Revised Deposit Draft UDP, 2001 appropriate locations on suitable transport routes Local policy within the Deposit Draft UDP aims to and/or railway lines. protect, provide and consolidate appropriate • EMP6 and EMP7 – stipulates that in terms of employment sites to meet the needs of the industrial, office accommodation preference is given to reuse employment and business communities in the borough. or redevelopment of existing stock. Only where Much of the borough’s employment is located within redevelopment is unrealistic will alternative uses town centres and these form a focus for economic be considered. development and employment strategy in the area. In addition the Cricklewood railway lands and the 7.3.2 Amount of Employment Land borough’s designated employment land provide A total of 20 employment land clusters were identified additional important employment opportunities (the within Barnet, predominately located along the M1 former presenting the major opportunity for Corridor in the west and the East Coast Main Line regeneration in the borough). Corridor in the east of the Borough, with a number of sites close to High Barnet as shown on the Barnet A1 The Draft UDP provides a list of 18 Primary Industrial Existing Land Use Map. A summary of the key Barnet Sites and Business Parks in Barnet. Within this list is employment land cluster information is provided in the Northern Telecom site, identified in the London Plan Table 7.1 with the overall results being: as an Industrial Business Park suitable for research

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 69 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 7.1 Barnet Employment Land Clusters Gross Employment Net Employment Net Employment Land Cluster Identifier and Name Number of Sites Land (ha) Land (ha) Percentage (%) BA001 – Barnet Trading Estate 20 2.0 1.9 3.5 BA002 – Falkland Road Industrial Estate 10 0.6 0.6 1.0 BA003 – Bittacy Business Centre 14 4.8 4.8 8.6 BA004 / BA005 / BA012 – Brent Terrace / Finchley 37 19.4 18.6 33.4 Industrial Estate BA006 – Brunswick Industrial Park 12 4.0 3.6 6.4 BA009 / BA010 / BA011 – Collindale Primary 22 2.7 2.6 4.7 Employment Area BA013 – Edgware Forum Side 11 1.3 1.3 2.3 BA014 – Finchley Industrial Estate 8 0.9 0.9 1.7 BA015 – Garrick Industrial Estate 17 5.9 5.5 10.0 BA017 – The Hyde Industrial Estate 20 0.7 0.7 1.3 BA018 – Lancaster Road Industrial Estate 14 1.4 1.3 2.4 BA019 – Mill Hill Industrial Estate 13 1.7 1.7 3.0 BA020 – Northern Telecoms Works 4 12.2 8.5 15.3 BA021 – Pricklers Hill 11 0.5 0.5 0.9 BA022 – Queens Road Industrial Estate 12 1.0 0.9 1.7 BA023 – Oakleigh Road South 3 2.1 2.1 3.9 Total 228 61.3 55.7 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005) Note: Clusters BA007, BA008 and BA016 have been deleted as they have no employment land (i.e. they have already been converted to either housing or offices)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 70 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • A total of 20 employment land clusters were • A very small number of sites (5 sites covering an identified within Barnet containing 228 individual area of 2ha) were identified as being multi use. employment sites Again these typically consisted of older multi­ • The gross employment land included in these storey buildings with different uses on separate clusters was 61ha, which equates to around 0.7% floors. of the Borough • No construction activity was identified during the • Once all of the public roads and open space has days that the survey work was being undertaken been removed from the data then Barnet is left with • Around 13% of the employment site area approximately 56ha of net employment land (about (equating to 33 employment sites and 5ha) was 91% of the area surveyed in the Borough) either vacant or derelict. • It is also expected that the proportion of vacant or 7.3.3 Net Employment Land in derelict sites within Barnet is higher than this as Industrial/Warehousing Use some of the sites identified as unknown (35 The existing land uses within Barnet have been employment sites and 4ha of employment site assessed according to the NLELS Land Use Definition land) are also likely to be either vacant or derelict. outlined in Section 4. This has resulted in the information presented in Table 7.2 which shows that: 7.3.4 Area and Floorspace Analysis The area and floorspace analysis has focused on the • 200 employment sites were identified to be in distribution of net cluster and site areas across Barnet, industrial/warehousing uses within Barnet (88% of along with the site floorspace distribution. the total identified sites) and these cover an area of 38ha (68% of the net employment area). Net Cluster Area Distribution • The top three land use categories by site area are The results of this assessment for Barnet are presented wholesale, warehousing, and public administration in Table 7.3 while the key findings are: which combined account for 43% of employment site land area (16ha) and 31% of employment ƒ The vast majority of Barnet employment land is sites (62 sites) located within 8 intermediate sized employment • In comparison the bottom three land use land clusters (40% of the identified clusters) that categories by site area are food and tobacco, range in size from 2 to 15ha. textile, and post and communications. Combined ƒ The remaining Barnet clusters are all considered to these categories account for less than 1ha of be small (0 to 2ha in size) and while they account employment site land area (1%) and 4 for 60% of clusters they only account for 23% of the employment sites (2%). net Barnet employment area.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 71 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 7.2 Existing Barnet Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition) Percentage of Net Number of Percentage of Sites Net Employment Land Use Employment Land Employment Sites (%) Land (ha) (%) Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 Textile (SIC 18-19) 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) - - - - Printing (SIC 22) 11 5.5 0.9 2.4 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 3 1.5 0.6 1.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 8 4.0 0.8 2.2 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 3 1.5 3.7 9.9 Construction (SIC 45) 6 3.0 0.5 1.4 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 22 11.0 1.6 4.3 Wholesale (SIC 51) 24 12.0 3.9 10.3 Warehousing (SIC 63) 33 16.5 7.8 20.7 Transport (SIC 62) 8 4.0 2.5 6.6 Utilities (SIC 40-41) - - - - Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) - - - - Post and Communications (SIC 64) 2 1.0 0.3 0.7 Public Administration (SIC 75) 5 2.5 4.3 11.5 Multi Use 5 2.5 1.8 4.8 Under Construction - - - - Vacant or Derelict 33 16.5 4.5 12.0 Unknown 35 17.5 4.4 11.8 Total 200 100.0 37.6 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 72 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 7.3 Barnet Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Number of Employment Percentage of Clusters Net Employment Land Percentage Net Employment Land (ha) Clusters (%) (ha) Employment Land (%) 0.0-1.0 7 35.0 4.8 8.6 1.1-2.0 5 25.0 7.7 13.9 2.1-5.0 4 20.0 13.3 23.9 5.1-15.0 4 20.0 29.9 53.6 15.1+ - - - - Total Clusters / Areas 20 100.0 55.7 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Net Site Area Distribution the net area covered by all Barnet employment Table 7.4 provides information on the distribution of net sites. employment sites areas across Barnet. Key results that should be taken from this table include: Site Floorspace Distribution The site floorspace distribution within Barnet is outlined • A reasonable spectrum of employment land sites in Table 7.5 with the key findings including: are found within Barnet from very small (less than 250m2) through to very large (60,000m2 plus) ƒ Around 340,000m2 of employment floorspace has • The majority of sites are small to medium with 52% been identified within Barnet of sites being found within the range of 1 to ƒ Just over 15% of the identified employment sites 1,000m2. It should be noted however that these have no building currently located upon them sites cover only 10% of the net Barnet employment (again this is likely to include a fair number of the site area or just over 50,000m2 (5ha). vacant or derelict sites) 2 • The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of ƒ Small buildings of between 1 and 250m in size are 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 39% of sites and located on approximately 23% of employment sites. around 31% of the net Barnet employment site In addition almost 45% of employment sites have area. This equates to just under 175,000m2 (17ha). small to medium sized buildings in a range of sizes 2 • Finally the top 9% of sites cover just under between 251 and 1,500m . 330,000m2 (33ha). This equates to around 59% of

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 73 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 7.4 Barnet Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area Number of Employment Net Employment Area Percentage Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Employment Area (%) 1-250 36 15.8 6,293 1.1 251-500 37 16.2 14,171 2.5 501-1,000 46 20.2 33,197 6.0 1,001-1,500 38 16.7 44,940 8.1 1,501-3,000 36 15.8 74,395 13.4 3,001-5,000 14 6.1 54,608 9.8 5,001-10,000 12 5.3 80,236 14.4 10,001-20,000 4 1.8 63,801 11.5 20,000+ 5 2.2 184,910 33.2 Total Sites / Areas 228 100.0 556,552 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Table 7.5 Barnet Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area Number of Employment Building Floorspace Percentage Available Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Floorspace (%) Zero 35 15.4 - - 1-250 53 23.2 6,519 1.9 251-500 30 13.2 11,828 3.5 501-1,000 54 23.7 38,630 11.4 1,001-1,500 18 7.9 22,031 6.5 1,501-3,000 16 7.0 34,290 10.1 3,001-5,000 10 4.4 37,968 11.2 5,001-10,000 7 3.1 45,024 13.3 10,001-20,000 3 1.3 39,469 11.6 20,000+ 2 0.9 103,696 30.5 Total Sites / Floorspace 228 100.0 339,454 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 74 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc ƒ Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of 7.4 Employment Land Demand between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 11% of employment sites. While just over 5% of This section reviews the findings of the NLELS employment sites contain large to very large employment land demand forecast produced for 2 buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 79,000m . Barnet. The GLA forecast of employment land demand is also shown for comparative purposes. 7.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues A range of information on general site quality and other The borough level employment forecasts for relevant issues was also collected during the Barnet industrial/warehousing uses produced by both the employment land survey work. The key building age NLELS and GLA methods are presented in Table 7.7. and condition information collected is presented within Table 7.6. While the building stock within Barnet is Overall the forecasts are broadly similar. Construction, generally identified as either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a Wholesale, and Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair are higher proportion of buildings have been identified as three sectors which show the greatest difference ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ than was the case at the North between the NLELS and GLA forecast in 2016 London level. (differences of -1,547; 1,966 and 1,185 jobs respectively).

Table 7.6 Barnet Building Age and Quality Age of Buildings Barnet Condition of Percentage Buildings 1900 to 1944 1945 to 1964 1965 to 1984 1985 to 2005 Unknown Total (%) Good 2 - 26 60 2 90 39.5 Reasonable 6 11 22 22 2 63 27.6 Poor 3 9 1 7 - 20 8.8 Very Poor - 3 1 - - 4 1.7 Unknown 3 4 1 9 34 51 22.4 Total 14 27 51 98 38 228

Percentage (%) 6.1 11.8 22.4 43.0 16.7 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 75 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 7.7 Barnet Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016 NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment base Sector 2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 323 252 22.0 377 345 -8.4 Textile (SIC 18-19) 668 106 -84.1 779 145 -81.4 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 145 63 -56.6 169 86 -49.0 Printing (SIC 22) 1,253 806 -35.7 1,461 1,103 -24.5 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 418 864 106.7 487 1,182 142.6 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 1,613 863 -46.5 1,881 1,190 -36.7 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 365 30 -91.8 449 51 -88.6 Construction (SIC 45) 10,221 6,785 -33.6 11,106 5,238 -52.8 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 2,671 2,785 4.3 2,955 3,970 34.4 Wholesale (SIC 51) 6,883 4,666 -32.2 7,614 6,632 -12.9 Warehousing (SIC 63) 365 447 22.5 422 431 2.1 Transport (SIC 60-62) 2,965 3,842 29.6 3,430 3,714 8.3 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 213 206 -3.3 299 383 28.1 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 494 1,062 115.0 535 1,208 125.9 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 3,346 2,026 -39.5 3,871 1,957 -49.5 Total 31,943 24,803 -22.4 35,835 27,635 -22.9 Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003, GLA 2005

The employment densities and plot ratios discussed in Employment Land. The employment land forecasts for Section 5 have been used to convert jobs to floorspace Barnet to 2016 are presented in Table 7.8 and 7.9 and then a plot ratio to convert floorspace to Net below.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 76 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 7.8 Barnet Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 225 187 184 179 179 253 212 213 206 201 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 276 229 226 220 220 311 261 262 254 248 Mid-Range 251 208 205 199 199 282 237 238 230 225 Source: PACEC

Table 7.9 Change in Barnet Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -46 -8 -52 -11 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -57 -10 -63 -13 Mid-Range -51 -9 -57 -12 Source: PACEC

7.5 Cluster Appraisals been the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Barnet and North London clusters, which is • The employment clusters within Barnet have been presented in Table 7.10. appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2. The key outcome of this appraisal has

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 77 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 7.10 Barnet Cluster Appraisal Results Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Within Barnet North Within London

BA001 – Barnet Trading 58 46 41 23 17 185 16 94 Primary Industrial Site with planning brief for mixed use Estate development (employment and residential) approved in 2000 BA002 – Falkland Road 93 67 38 30 10 238 12 90 Primary Industrial Site Industrial Estate BA003 – Bittacy Business 117 92 56 30 23 318 4 41 Primary Industrial Site Centre BA004 / BA005 / BA012 – 58 67 60 56 33 275 9 85 Not designated Brent Terrace / Finchley Industrial Estate BA006 – Brunswick 105 92 60 38 33 328 2 26 Primary Industrial SIte Industrial Park BA009 / BA010 / BA011 – 82 71 64 15 23 255 11 89 Primary Industrial Site Collindale Primary Employment Area BA013 – Edgware Forum 48 42 64 60 20 232 14 92 UDP proposal for site is mixed use development including Side town centre, retail, housing, leisure, recreation and tourism BA014 – Finchley 82 88 53 38 20 279 7 82 Primary Industrial Site Industrial Estate BA015 – Garrick Industrial 117 96 53 38 30 333 1 22 Primary Industrial Site Estate BA017 – The Hyde 105 88 49 38 30 309 5 53 Primary Industrial Site Industrial Estate BA018 – Lancaster Road 105 83 45 38 20 291 6 72 Primary Industrial Site Industrial Estate

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 78 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Within Barnet North Within London

BA019 – Mill Hill Industrial 93 67 41 45 30 276 8 84 Primary Industrial Site Estate BA020 – Northern 105 96 38 56 30 325 3 32 Industrial Business Park with planning brief for limited mixed Telecoms Works use development approved 2006 BA021 – Pricklers Hill 93 42 49 38 10 231 15 93 Primary Industrial Site BA022 – Queens Road 105 75 15 23 17 234 13 91 Primary Industrial Site BA023 – Oakleigh Road 82 71 41 45 33 272 10 86 Not allocated within the UDP, but protected for employment South use through Policy EMP2. Planning brief for residential development on part of the site approved 2006. Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBB (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBB. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not been subsequent changes, the relevant LBB UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 79 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 8 Enfield

8.1 Introduction west of the borough in Oakwood, Cockfosters and Southgate. Over-ground services run from Enfield Enfield is the northern most district in North London, Town, Enfield Chase and Enfield Lock stations, passing directly abutting the M25 (specifically junctions 25 to through the borough with various other stops 24) and bisected by the A10 which runs between the terminating at Moorgate and Liverpool Street but with M25 and the A406 North Circular Road to the south. London transport underground service connections at Within North London, Enfield has the largest points on the inward journey. commercial/industrial centre, mainly due to Brimsdown which is believed to be the second largest 8.2 Current Market Context concentration of industrial buildings outside of Park Royal in West London. 8.2.1 Industrial Market Given the size of Enfield as a borough and the sheer Enfield Town is perhaps the main focus of the borough quantity of industrial stock, we perceive the component with its wide range of shopping facilities and civic parts of the Enfield industrial/warehouse market is in offices. However, retail and leisure facilities are spread three specific sub-markets: throughout the borough, including the medium sized retail element at Edmonton Green. In terms of road • Enfield (A10/Great Cambridge Road) – this access, the borough has benefited from major London area, which includes Great Cambridge Road and wide improvement and infrastructure, specifically the areas off Southbury Road and Lincoln Road, is M25 orbital motorway and the upgrading of the North home to much of the historic manufacturing land Circular Road which, when combined with the use which has shifted in the last ten to fifteen established A10 dual carriageway allows movement years towards warehouse and distribution, and north south through the borough into central London or retail warehousing. A number of the redundant via the motorway network to all major routes. The 1930s industrial buildings along the A10 have in borough is also relatively accessible to the major recent years been redeveloped and have evolved airports of Luton, Stansted and eastwards towards the into a “cluster” of main car dealerships. Similarly ports of Tilbury, Felixstowe and Harwich. the area south of the British Car Auction (originally Weston Aerospace) has been developed into retail Aside from numerous bus routes, the LBE public warehousing. Adjacent to this are Baird Road and transport system is focused around over-ground railway Crown Road where a significant number of although there are Piccadilly Line stations to the north industrial occupiers still remain. This area has

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 80 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc begun to redevelop through market forces with sector alongside the A406 in Edmonton and over older buildings being demolished and replaced by the course of time this will undoubtedly newer industrial “schemes”. Further south on the incorporate areas such as Stonehills Business A10, significant re-development has recently taken Centre, Hastingwood and Lee Valley Industrial place and a new BMW main dealership showroom Estates. had been created. The GE Lighting premises at the junction of Lincoln Road/A10 is still occupied The property crash of the early 1990s effectively called and, whilst dated stock, still serves an a halt to all speculative commercial development in the employment purpose. Adjacent is the 1980s Great borough and the first new industrial buildings developed Cambridge Estate with the recent addition of A10 (without pre-lets or pre-sales) was circa 1997. Exchange by Brixton Plc, the first new Subsequent to that there have only been a handful of small/medium unit industrial scheme in LBE for further “schemes” although a number of opportunities some six or more years. are now beginning to arise following developers • Brimsdown – As previously mentioned, a purchase of sites or buildings. Of specific note is the significant industrial holding which has seen many Brixton Plc scheme at A10 Exchange, effectively an road improvements over the last decade. The area extension of their existing property holding at Great is home to numerous individual industrial estates Cambridge Estate, Lincoln Road. This has just been and stand alone buildings including Trafalgar completed on a totally speculative basis and extends to Business Centre, Delta Park, Arena Point, The some 96,000 sq ft in units from 2,500 sq ft. Early Dencora Centre and Sovereign Business Centre. lettings show that there is a demand from occupiers for Still a popular industrial location generally but quality space and that rents necessary to undertake congestion is causing some concern. such development are achievable with effort. • Edmonton – Located to the south of the borough and benefiting from good road links to the A406 To our knowledge, and excluding the significant sites of North Circular Road, the Edmonton area is the former BOC company in Edmonton and the former perceived by both the occupier and development ESAB premises in north Enfield, there is potentially in sector as a strong industrial/warehouse location. the order of 450,000 sq ft of new small and medium This is reflected by significant development activity sized warehouse/industrial accommodation in the at the current time which (ignoring the recent planning pipeline or under construction. construction of Ikea), includes the sale of the former BOC site fronting the A406 (14 acres), the 8.2.2 Commercial Market former Parker Knoll premises (approximately 4 For historic reasons the North Eastern sector of London acres). Both these redevelopments will has not seen a huge demand for office space in the last significantly enhance the industrial/commercial fifteen years, with the demand for central London

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 81 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc focusing towards the west London area. Thus office demand in the borough has tended to come almost 8.2.3 Housing Market entirely from companies who are historically situated in Understandably, given that it is a London conurbation this area and local service companies such a solicitors, edged by the Metropolitan greenbelt, and more recently accountants plus the usual local authorities. Critically, by the M25, the London Borough of Enfield would occupier demand has not led to the strengthening of undoubtedly be considered a densely populated rent which makes office development unviable in this residential area, albeit it does benefit from significant borough. pockets of green open space. Due to its density there have been few significant residential schemes created. Within Enfield there are very few locations which could The exceptions would be Enfield Island Village, near be defined as office “zones”. At Innova Park, Mollison Enfield Lock to the north of the borough and Highlands Avenue, Enfield, is the only recently built office stock. Village in Winchmore Hill. The former was created over Innova House, constructed approximately five years a number of years on land formerly part of the Royal ago is part of a joint venture between Scarborough Plc Ordnance site which is a mix of private and social and LBE totalling some 30,000 sq ft and is housing. Highlands Village is again a mix of private and approximately 75% occupied. On the same site are two social housing (incorporating a small Sainsburys buildings originally known as BIC1 and BIC2 which supermarket and the Village Hall). This development failed as innovation centres and are now let as was a former hospital site and incorporates some workshops/small business units. The remainder of the converted buildings and a significant element of new land surrounding Innova House/BIC is zoned for the build. future Science Park/office development but this is unlikely to proceed speculatively given the availability of To the south of the borough, recent schemes have space within Innova House. included the Social Housing Development on the former MK premises at Edmonton and a similar scheme Within Enfield Town itself are a number of individual in Montagu Road Edmonton. multi storey office buildings at River Front and Southbury Road. These are of mixed age varying from 8.3 Employment Land Supply 1960s construction up to mid 1980s, the majority of which would not meet the specification required for This review on the existing Enfield employment land Grade A office occupiers. A majority of these buildings supply is largely drawn from our field survey of every were originally occupied by single companies as head identified employment land clusters and sites within the office or similar but due to change in business Borough (as was the case for Barnet). The results of structures across the region most of the offices in this this review are outlined covering the areas of existing area are now multi-let on a floor or part floor basis.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 82 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc land supply and usage, site area and floorspace business environment. The policy aim is to retain distributions, and site quality and other issues. and enhance these areas, develop new areas to attract inward investment / relocations, and to 8.3.1 Enfield Adopted UDP, 1994 and Interim restrict use to Classes B1-B8. Amendments, 1999 • Local Employment Areas comprising those Employment policy within the Adopted UDP aims to areas catering more locally based businesses, are foster Enfield as a location for business (Policy (I) E1); capable of providing a wide variety of sites and retain and enhance areas that provide commercial, premises, and are reasonably well located to industrial and distribution employment (Policy (I) E2); transport infrastructure. While policy is to resist retain and provide accommodation for small-scale change of use in these areas, favourable developments (Policy (I) E3); and to facilitate the most consideration could be given subject to wider sites efficient use of land within the employment generating / premises availability and the compatibility of use areas (Policy (I) E4). with existing employment uses. • Other Employment Areas applying to all sites Overall the approach set out is to concentrate B1-B8 and premises within Use Classes B1-B8 situated uses within identified Primary Industrial Areas, but give outside of the above designations. Among these favourable consideration to proposals for the sites redevelopment for other uses would diversification or redevelopment of industrial and generally be considered by the council. warehousing premises outside of these areas. Although the Adopted Plan identified the Primary Industrial Areas 8.3.2 Amount of Employment Land the Inspector questioned whether they could properly 25 employment land clusters were identified in Enfield, fulfil the role of accommodating industrial and business predominately located along the Lea Valley Corridor in uses and recommended that an employment demand the East of the Borough and immediately to the East of and supply study further assess provision. the A10 as shown on the Enfield A1 Existing Land Use Map. A summary of the key Enfield employment This study culminated with in the employment land land cluster information is provided in Table 8.1. A total proposals contained within the UDP Interim of 25 employment land clusters were identified within Amendments 1999, which subdivides employment Enfield containing 807 individual employment sites. The areas in to three categories: gross employment land covered by these clusters was 404ha, which equates to around 4.9% of the Borough. • Prime Employment Areas comprising those Once all of the public roads and open space have been areas containing large sites and good quality removed for the data then Enfield is left with developments, well located to transport approximately 359ha of net employment land (about infrastructure and capable of providing a quality 89% of the area surveyed within the Borough).

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 83 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 8.1 Enfield Employment Land Clusters Gross Employment Net Employment Percentage of Net Cluster Identifier and Name Number of Sites Land (ha) Land (ha) Employment Land (%) EN001 – Chase Side Works 7 0.9 0.9 0.2 EN003 – Regents Avenue 9 1.8 1.8 0.5 EN004 – Oakthorpe Dairy 1 3.1 3.1 0.9 EN005 – New Southgate Industrial Estate 16 1.8 1.7 0.5 EN006 – Redburn Trading Estate 30 4.2 3.8 1.0 EN007 – Queensway 33 3.6 3.4 1.0 EN008 – Lea Valley Trading Estate 61 19.6 17.1 4.8 EN009 / EN014 / EN026 – Meridian Way Land / 7 23.2 23.2 6.5 Glover Drive / Kimberly Road EN010 – Montagu Industrial Estate / Kenninghall 62 16.1 13.8 3.8 Estate / Railtrack Land EN011 – Claverings Industrial Estate / Dominion 33 3.6 2.7 0.8 Business Park / Horizon Business Centre EN012 – Langhedge Lane Industrial Estate 7 0.7 0.7 0.2 EN013 – Commercial Road & N. Middlesex Estate 56 9.8 9.2 2.6 EN015 – Eley's Estate 77 27.3 24.5 6.8 EN016 – Innova Park 11 41.7 35.7 9.9 EN017 – Hertford Road / Mollison Avenue 2 10.9 10.9 3.0 EN018 – Meridian Business Park 17 21.1 18.9 5.3 EN019 – Aztec 406 Development Site 6 19.6 19.3 5.4 EN020 – Brimsdown Industrial Area 243 139.1 115.1 32.1 EN021 – Great Cambridge Industrial Estate 26 11.2 11.0 3.1 EN022 – Great Cambridge Road (Martinbridge) 15 7.0 7.0 2.0 EN023 – Great Cambridge Road 9 7.1 7.1 2.0 EN024 – Great Cambridge Road 59 25.5 23.4 6.5 EN025 – Alma Industrial Estate 20 5.2 4.6 1.3 Total 807 404.2 359.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005). Note: Cluster EN002 has been deleted as it has no employment land (i.e. it has already been converted to either housing or offices)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 84 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 8.3.3 Net Employment Land in 8.3.4 Area and Floorspace Analysis Industrial/Warehousing Use The area and floorspace analysis has focused on the The existing land uses within Enfield have been distribution of net cluster and site areas across Enfield, assessed using the NLELS Land Use Definition. This along with the site floorspace distribution has resulted in the information presented in Table 8.2 which shows that: Net Cluster Area Distribution The results of the Net Cluster Area assessment for • 717 industrial/warehousing employment sites were Enfield are presented in Table 8.3. The key findings identified within Enfield (89% of the total identified include: sites) and cover 333ha (93% of the net employment area). ƒ Just over two thirds of the Enfield employment land • The top three land use categories by site area are is located within 7 very large employment clusters food and tobacco, wholesale, and warehousing (28% of the identified clusters) each of which is which combined account for 41% of employment 15ha or larger. The Brimsdown Industrial Area is site land area (136ha) and 39% of employment the largest of these and at 115h accounts of almost sites (276 sites) a third of the Enfield employment land area. • In comparison the bottom three land use categories ƒ At the other extreme Enfield also has a number of by site area are textile, wood and paper products, employment clusters (5 clusters) that are small with and printing. Combined these categories account areas of between 0 and 2ha. These clusters for just 8ha of employment site land area (2%) and account for 20% of the Enfield employment clusters 54 employment sites (8%). but only 2% of the Enfield employment land (6ha). • Again a very small number of sites (11 sites ƒ The majority of Enfield clusters are however of covering an area of 3ha) were identified as being intermediate size (ranging from 2 to 15ha) and multi use which typically consist of older multi­ these account for 28% of the Enfield employment storey building with different users land (99ha) • A total of 8 sites were found to be under construction covering an area of 6ha. Net Site Area Distribution Table 8.4 provides information on the distribution of net • Around 21% of the employment site area (65ha) employment site areas across Enfield. Key results that was vacant/derelict. In addition, 14ha of should be taken from this table include: employment site land (4%) was identified as unknown. ƒ A good spectrum of employment land sites are found within Enfield from very small (less than 250m2) through to the very large (172,000m2 plus)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 85 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc ƒ Just under half (44%) of the Enfield sites identified ƒ Finally the top 18% of sites cover just over are small to medium with areas up to 1,000m2. 2.7million m2 (272ha). This equates to around 76% ƒ The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of of the net area covered by all Enfield employment 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 38% of sites and sites. around 20% of the net Enfield employment site area. This equates to just over 0.7million m2 (71ha).

Table 8.2 Existing Enfield Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition) Percentage of Net Number of Percentage of Sites Net Employment Land Use Employment Land Employment Sites (%) Land (ha) (%) Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 30 4.2 24.7 7.4 Textile (SIC 18-19) 12 1.7 1.5 0.5 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 15 2.1 3.0 0.9 Printing (SIC 22) 27 3.8 3.0 0.9 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 12 1.7 9.5 2.9 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 49 6.8 18.6 5.6 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 15 2.1 8.7 2.6 Construction (SIC 45) 19 2.6 5.9 1.8 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 87 12.1 22.6 6.8 Wholesale (SIC 51) 135 18.8 42.2 12.7 Warehousing (SIC 63) 111 15.5 69.2 20.8 Transport (SIC 62) 7 1.0 5.0 1.5 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 8 1.1 17.3 5.2 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 20 2.8 6.6 2.0 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 14 2.0 7.9 2.4 Public Administration (SIC 75) 1 0.1 0.2 - Multi Use 11 1.5 2.7 0.8 Under Construction 8 1.1 5.5 1.7 Vacant or Derelict 62 8.6 65.0 19.5 Unknown 74 10.3 14.2 4.2 Total 717 100.0 333.2 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 86 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 8.3 Enfield Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Number of Employment Percentage of Clusters Net Employment Land Percentage Net Employment Land (ha) Clusters (%) (ha) Employment Land (%) 0.0-1.0 2 8.0 1.6 0.4 1.1-2.0 3 12.0 4.6 1.3 2.1-5.0 5 20.0 17.6 4.9 5.1-15.0 8 32.0 81.2 22.6 15.1+ 7 28.0 254.1 70.8 Total Clusters / Areas 25 100.0 359.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Table 8.4 Enfield Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area Number of Employment Net Employment Area Percentage Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Employment Area (%) 1-250 83 10.3 13,006 0.4 251-500 130 16.1 47,687 1.3 501-1,000 139 17.2 102,348 2.8 1,001-1,500 95 11.8 118,964 3.3 1,501-3,000 140 17.3 302,688 8.4 3,001-5,000 75 9.3 290,557 8.1 5,001-10,000 65 8.1 474,984 13.2 10,001-20,000 47 5.8 660,981 18.4 20,000+ 33 4.1 1,582,516 44.0 Total Sites / Areas 807 100.0 3,593,731 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 87 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Site Floorspace Distribution ƒ Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of The site floorspace distribution within Enfield is between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 24% of assessed in Table 8.5 and key findings outlined below. employment sites. While just over 7% of employment sites contain large to very large ƒ Just over 2.7 million m2 of employment floorspace buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 103,000m2. was identified within Enfield ƒ Around 9% of the identified employment sites have 8.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues no building currently located on them. Again this is A range of information on general site quality and other likely to include a fair number of vacant or derelict relevant issues was also undertaken during the Enfield sites. employment land survey work. The key information 2 ƒ Small buildings of between 1 and 250m in size are collected is presented within Table 8.6. While the located on approximately 14% of employment sites. building stock within Enfield is generally identified as In addition around 40% of employment sites have either ‘Good’ or ‘Reasonable’ a higher proportion of small to medium sized building in a range of sizes buildings have been identified as ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ 2 between 251 and 1,500m . than was the case at the North London level.

Table 8.5 Enfield Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area Number of Employment Building Floorspace Percentage Available Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Floorspace (%) Zero 74 9.2 - - 1-250 109 13.5 17,628 0.6 251-500 106 13.1 39,670 1.4 501-1,000 135 16.7 96,301 3.5 1,001-1,500 82 10.2 103,305 3.8 1,501-3,000 115 14.3 242,457 8.8 3,001-5,000 81 10.0 312,776 11.4 5,001-10,000 59 7.3 421,991 15.4 10,001-20,000 23 2.9 318,730 11.6 20,000+ 23 2.9 1,189,435 43.4 Total Sites / Floorspace 807 100.0 2,742,291 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 88 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 8.6 Enfield Building Age and Quality Age of Buildings Enfield Condition of Percentage Buildings 1900 to 1944 1945 to 1964 1965 to 1984 1985 to 2005 Unknown Total (%) Good - - 50 282 20 352 43.6 Reasonable - 23 167 102 16 308 38.2 Poor - 25 31 5 6 67 8.3 Very Poor - 1 - - 1 2 0.3 Unknown - - 5 5 68 98 9.6 Total - 49 253 394 111 807

Percentage (%) - 6.1 31.4 48.8 13.7 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

8.4 Employment Land Demand different to the GLA generated forecast which estimates a fall of around 19% or 8,000 jobs. The most significant This section reviews the findings of the NLELS difference is in the construction sector, but employment land demand forecast produced for warehousing, and transport also grow faster under the Enfield. The GLA forecast of employment land demand NLELS forecast. is also shown for comparative purposes. The employment densities and plot ratios discussed in The borough level employment forecasts for Section 5 have been used to convert jobs to floorspace industrial/warehousing uses produced by both the and then a plot ratio to convert floorspace to Net NLELS and GLA methods are presented in Table 8.7. Employment Land. The employment land forecasts for Enfield to 2016 are presented in Table 8.8 and 8.9 The NLELS forecast indicates employment across the below. NLELS defined sectors in Enfield between 2001 and 2016 is quite static down -0.3%, which is markedly

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 89 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 8.7 Enfield Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016 NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment base Sector 2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 1,681 1,469 -12.6 1,882 1,994 6.0 Textile (SIC 18-19) 683 140 -79.5 765 187 -75.6 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 302 169 -44.0 338 227 -32.7 Printing (SIC 22) 828 484 -41.5 927 658 -29.0 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 1,247 907 -27.3 1,396 1,227 -12.1 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 6,203 2,326 -62.5 6,944 3,156 -54.6 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 328 119 -63.7 395 193 -51.0 Construction (SIC 45) 9,156 11,307 23.5 8,694 5,820 -33.1 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 2,408 2,112 -12.3 2,543 2,343 -7.9 Wholesale (SIC 51) 6,132 6,027 -1.7 6,475 6,673 3.0 Warehousing (SIC 63) 1,128 2,647 134.7 988 1,627 64.6 Transport (SIC 60-62) 4,916 7,152 45.5 4,307 4,391 1.9 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 374 268 -28.3 1,614 561 -65.2 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 1,022 1,923 88.2 1,154 2,667 131.2 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 2,740 1,980 -27.7 2,401 1,209 -49.7 Total 39,148 39,030 -0.3 40,823 32,933 -19.3 Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003, GLA 2005

Table 8.8 Enfield Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 272 260 263 275 283 283 262 261 249 240 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 333 320 323 339 349 347 321 320 306 296 Mid-range 303 290 293 308 316 315 292 291 277 268 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 90 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 8.9 Change in Enfield Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 12 23 -43 -22 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 16 29 -52 -26 Mid-range 14 26 -47 -24 Source: PACEC

8.5 Cluster Appraisals The key outcome of this appraisal has been the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Enfield and North The employment clusters within Enfield have been London clusters, which is presented in Table 8.10. appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2.

Table 8.10 Enfield Cluster Appraisal Results Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Within Enfield North Within London Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total

EN001 – Chase Side 128 54 38 38 13 271 23 87 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area Works EN003 – Regents Avenue 117 67 56 26 23 289 22 74 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area EN004 – Oakthorpe Dairy 128 92 38 15 30 303 21 61 Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area EN005 – New Southgate 117 75 60 34 37 322 16 37 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area Industrial Estate

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 91 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Within Enfield North Within London

EN006 – Redburn Trading 117 92 45 34 40 327 13 27 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area Estate EN007 – Queensway 117 58 49 53 33 310 19 52 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area EN008 – Lea Valley 128 100 41 45 43 358 1 2 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area Trading Estate EN009 / EN014 / EN026 – 117 83 49 49 48 344 7 9 Meridian Way Land – Interim Amendments – Local Meridian Way Land / Employment Area Glover Drive / Kimberly Glover Drive – Interim Amendments – Local Employment Road Area (Part) Kimberly Road – Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area EN010 – Montagu 128 79 49 38 43 337 10 19 Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area Industrial Estate / Kenninghall Estate / Railtrack Lands EN011 – Claverings 128 75 41 45 27 316 18 44 Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area Industrial Estate / Dominion Business Park / Horizon Business Centre EN012 – Langhedge Lane 117 67 45 49 27 304 20 59 Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area Industrial Estate EN013 – Commercial 128 75 41 45 33 323 15 35 Interim Amendments – Local Employment Area Road and North Middlesex Estate EN015 – Eley's Estate 117 79 49 56 43 344 8 10 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area EN016 – Innova Park 93 100 45 53 37 328 12 25 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 92 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Within Enfield North Within London

EN017 – Hertford Road / 105 96 56 49 37 343 9 11 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area Mollison Avenue EN018 – Meridian 93 83 49 53 40 318 17 40 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area Business Park EN019 – Aztec 406 117 100 41 53 43 354 3 4 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area Development Site EN020 – Brimsdown 128 88 49 53 40 357 2 3 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area EN021 – Great Cambridge 117 83 53 49 33 335 11 21 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area Industrial Estate EN022 – Great Cambridge 128 79 56 49 33 346 4 5 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area Road (Martinbridge Trading Estate) EN023 – Great Cambridge 128 79 60 45 33 346 5 6 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area Road EN024 – Great Cambridge 117 83 60 53 33 346 6 7 Interim Amendments – Prime Employment Area Road EN025 – Alma Industrial 128 75 49 38 37 326 14 29 Interim Amendments – Other Employment Area Estate Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBE (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBE. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not been subsequent changes, the relevant LBE UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 93 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 9 Haringey

9.1 Introduction well served by the railway network with stations in various parts of the borough and over ground services Haringey could be described as sitting in the centre of leading into London Liverpool Street and Kings North London. To the west of the borough is the Cross/Moorgate. There are also connections to the famous Alexandra Palace and to the east “White Hart Victoria and Piccadilly underground lines. Lane” home of Tottenham Hotspur FC. Centrally located is Wood Green with its well known “Wood 9.2 Current Market Context Green Shopping City”, a large undercover shopping “mall” together with a busy High Street and recent new 9.2.1 Industrial Market leisure complex comprising restaurants and cinema. Haringey has some of the oldest industrial and Throughout the remainder of the borough there are warehousing stock in the North London sub-region, clusters of local shopping facilities together with despite recent market activity indicating that there numerous “ribbon” retail facilities along roads such as exists a reasonable demand for small and medium High Road, Tottenham and Green Lanes in Haringey. sized industrial units in the borough (although such demand will undoubtedly begin to wane as the Most recent data shows that Haringey has a population available stock becomes more and more obsolete). of some 240,000 people and the last UDP identified an estimated 88,000 dwellings. As is the case with other Whilst some speculative construction has commenced North London boroughs the area appears generally in neighbouring boroughs over the last few years there high density in terms of housing but from mapping there are very few potential opportunities in Haringey for are obvious large areas of green and open space redevelopment on reasonably sized sites. As has been scattered across the area. discussed elsewhere, the lack of single large occupiers means that there are not the opportunities for Road access through the borough is relatively developers to purchase suitable land holdings for one congested. However the borough is highly accessible to off redevelopment and, where highly fragmented Central London and the West End. Whilst the borough ownerships exist, it is not viable to buy in numerous boundary falls just inside the A406 North Circular Road holdings with a view to long term future development. It various main routes through the borough connect would appear that the “Haringey Heartlands” is directly with this thereby giving easy access to the potentially a case in point, namely mass regeneration A41/M1 to the west and the M11/A13 to the east. Aside (whether it be for residential or commercial) is perhaps from the usual bus services, the borough is generally

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 94 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc only feasible with some compulsory powers and the • Bounds Green Industrial Estate – A cluster of ability to hold and fund part of the site for many years. older industrial stock, well located directly adjacent to the A406 North Circular Road. There is likely to be some new small unit industrial • Tottenham Hale – Two clusters of industrial development in the borough entirely on the “back” of situated on either side of the A1055. To the west residential scheme at Bounds Green and Coppetts of the A1055 in Ashley Road there are a variety of Road whilst similar opportunities may arise with the established industrial occupiers, some of which redevelopment of a privately owned small site in the are within multi storey dated buildings. Fronting Garman Road Tottenham area. All of these are likely to the A1055 is the Lee Valley Techno Park and at be at least 12/18 months away from a completed the end of Ashley Road is a Haringey Civic product. Amenity station. • Fountayne Road / Markfield Road, N17 – A Significant areas of industrial / warehousing provision in fragmented cluster of industrial buildings which the borough include: (with the exception of Fountayne Business Centre) is older stock, some dating to the turn of the last • Garman Road / Brantwood Road / Leaside century. The vast majority of the area is fully Road, Tottenham – Various buildings in occupied but much of the stock is unsuitable for Brantwood Road are of 1980s construction and the modern business environment. well maintained whilst neighbouring stock varies • White Hart Lane, Tottenham – A cluster of two greatly in age and type but much dating from the main buildings/estates, well accessed to the A10 1950s. Similarly the Garman Road area is Great Cambridge Road, just south of the North occupied by high density old style industrial stock Circular. This includes St Georges Industrial with limited car parking. Slightly to the east is Estate, a well maintained and managed 1980s Mowlem Trading Estate, a popular location of scheme which is well occupied. Adjacent early 1980s industrial units that is adjacent to occupiers include Cash and Carry and a large other industrial areas in other boroughs. distributor. • Western Road / Coburg Road, Wood Green (also called Haringey Heartlands) – An old 9.2.2 Commercial Market established industrial area, bounded by the gas­ Haringey has never been perceived as a key office works and the railway line with access only from location, in part due to the lack of available Mayes Road. The site is currently in fragmented development land but in the main due to its very ownership and comprises a wide variety of proximity to the centre of London with its hugely industrial buildings varying from turn of the century established business focus. Therefore office demand in multi storey properties to four early 1980s estates. Haringey comes almost entirely from companies

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 95 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc historically situated in the area, or businesses whose 9.3 Employment Land Supply clear aim is to provide a service within the borough or its close proximity. Also, in line with all boroughs of this This review on the existing supply of employment land density, there is a relatively large quantity of space within Haringey is largely drawn from our field survey of occupied by local authority and ancillary users. every identified employment land clusters and sites within the Borough (as was the case for Barnet and Therefore there is almost no area in the borough which Enfield). The results of this review are outlined covering one could describe as an “office centre” save for below and cover the areas of existing land supply and perhaps High Road Wood Green, the remainder being usage, site area and floorspace distributions, along with scattered throughout the borough or entirely ancillary to site quality and other issues. industrial/warehouse users. The civic offices are focused around High Road Wood Green particularly at 9.3.1 Haringey Revised Deposit Consultation Draft the junction with Lordship Lane, although even this UDP, 2004 occupation is somewhat fragmented. Demand is poor, The guiding employment policy in the Borough of rents corresponding are low even in comparison with Haringey is that there should be quality land, premise neighbouring boroughs and it is highly unlikely that any and transport links to enable businesses to develop, speculative office development on any scale will take expand and consolidate within the borough. Within this place in the near future. context there is a preference to protect and enhance the Borough’s employment land allocations for B-class 9.2.3 Housing Market uses. The current draft of the UDP presents a hierarchy As a major London conurbation, bounded on all sides of employment land in the borough consisting of: by boroughs of a similar type, Haringey in the main could be considered a densely populated residential • Strategic Employment Locations – Defined in area, notwithstanding the established and clearly the London Plan as sites for industry, business defined green areas. Due to its density there have been and warehousing, there are two areas – Wood very few significant residential schemes created in Green (part) and Tottenham Hale and Central recent years. However, some medium sized residential Leaside Business Area (North Tottenham DEA13). developments have taken place (or are currently • Industrial Locations – Well established industrial underway) such as at the ex Post Office depot at Milton areas to be retained for B-class employment uses. Road/Turnpike Lane, and similar at the junction of There are 14 Industrial locations named and Hornsey Road/Turnpike Lane, the Coliseum in Green include the key industrial estates in the borough Lanes, Wood Green and with significant development • Employment Locations – Four wider areas with currently underway at Hornsey (known as the “New a more flexible employment focus beyond B-class. River”).

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 96 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Regeneration Areas – Areas predominantly in (about 94% of the area surveyed within the industrial and warehousing use which are in the Borough) Haringey Heartlands area of intensification and Tottenham International area of opportunity. 9.3.3 Net Employment Land in Industrial/Warehousing Use Key employment policies relevant to industrial and The existing land uses within Haringey have been warehousing uses include the aim to protect and assessed according to the NLELS Land Use Definition. enhance the Borough’s Industrial Locations and This has resulted in the information presented in Table Employment Locations for appropriate uses (policies 9.2 which shows that: EMP1 and EMP2); and the need to fully justify the redevelopment or change of use of land and buildings • 583 employment sites in industrial/warehousing in employment generating uses (EMP3). However, it is uses were identified within Haringey (82% of the felt that this would be inappropriate within the total identified sites) and these cover an area of Borough’s designated Industrial Locations. 104ha (86% of the net employment area). • The top three land use categories by site area are 9.3.2 Amount of Employment Land wholesale, warehousing, and transport and A total of 25 employment land clusters were identified combined (SIC 51, 62 and 63) account for 42% of within Haringey, predominately located along the Lea employment land area (43ha) and 36% of Valley Corridor in the East and the East Coast Main employment sites (208 sites) Line Corridor in the West of the Borough as shown on • In comparison the bottom three land use the Haringey A1 Existing Land Use Map. A summary categories are wood and paper products, renting of the key Haringey land cluster information is provided of machinery and equipment, and public in Table 9.1 with the key overall results being: administration (SIC 20-21, 71.1-71.3, and 75). Combined these activities account for just 2ha of • A total of 25 employment land clusters were employment site land area (2%) and 16 identified within Haringey containing 715 individual employment sites (3%). employment sites • Again a small number of sites (16 sites covering • The gross employment land covered by these an area of 4ha) were identified as being multi use. clusters was 133ha, which equates to around These sites typically consisted of older multi­ 4.5% of the Borough storey buildings with different uses on separate • Once all of the public roads and open space has floors. been removed from the data then Haringey is left • Only two sites were found to be under with approximately 126ha of net employment land construction covering an area of less than 1ha.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 97 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 9.1 Haringey Employment Land Clusters Percentage of Net Gross Employment Net Employment Cluster Identifier and Name Number of Sites Borough Employment Land (ha) Land (ha) Land (%) HA001 – Ashfield Road / Crusader Industrial Estate 18 2.5 2.5 2.1 HA002 – Vale Road / Tewkesbury Road 37 6.9 6.4 5.3 HA003 – Cranford Way 17 7.2 7.2 6.0 HA004 – Wood Green 37 10.6 9.1 7.6 HA005 – White Hart Lane 10 8.1 8.0 6.6 HA006 – Queen Street 20 1.6 1.6 1.3 HA007 – Brantwood Road 60 16.9 14.9 12.3 HA008 – Willoughby Lane 36 1.1 1.1 0.9 HA009 / HA010 – North East Tottenham / Marsh Lane 68 18.2 16.4 13.6 HA011 – Millmead / Ashley Road Extensions 84 12.2 11.8 9.8 HA012 – Tottenham Hale 15 5.5 5.2 4.3 HA013 – South Tottenham 111 14.8 10.3 8.6 HA014 – Hale Wharf 12 1.7 1.7 1.4 HA015 – High Road West 26 1.4 1.4 1.1 HA016 – High Road West 1 1.0 1.0 0.9 HA017 – N17 Studios 8 1.6 1.6 1.3 HA018 – High Road East 51 3.2 3.2 2.7 HA019 – Bounds Green Industrial Estate 43 4.6 4.1 3.4 HA020 – Orion Road 1 5.8 5.6 4.6 HA021 – Lynx Express Depot 1 1.9 1.9 1.6 HA022 – Campsbourne 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 HA023 – Seven Sisters Road 17 1.1 1.1 0.9 HA024 – Lawrence Road 22 3.7 3.1 2.6 HA025 – Lindens / Rosebury Works 19 1.3 1.3 1.1 Total 715 133.2 120.6 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 98 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 9.2 Existing Haringey Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition) Percentage of Net Number of Percentage of Sites Net Employment Land Use Employment Land Employment Sites (%) Land (ha) (%) Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 40 6.9 6.4 6.2 Textile (SIC 18-19) 23 3.9 4.2 4.0 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 8 1.4 0.3 0.3 Printing (SIC 22) 26 4.5 3.2 3.1 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 11 1.9 2.6 2.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 26 4.5 4.3 4.1 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 10 1.7 2.4 2.3 Construction (SIC 45) 16 2.7 1.4 1.3 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 50 8.6 5.7 5.5 Wholesale (SIC 51) 111 19.0 24.4 23.6 Warehousing (SIC 63) 80 13.7 10.5 10.2 Transport (SIC 62) 17 2.9 8.5 8.2 Utilities (SIC 40-41) - - - - Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 6 1.0 1.4 1.3 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 11 1.9 3.3 3.2 Public Administration (SIC 75) 2 0.3 0.7 0.6 Multi Use 16 2.7 3.5 3.4 Under Construction 2 0.3 0.1 0.1 Vacant or Derelict 51 8.7 11.4 11.0 Unknown 77 13.2 9.2 8.8 Total 583 100.0 103.5 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

• Around 13% of the employment site area and 9ha of employment site land) are also likely to (equating to 51 employment sites and 11ha) was be either vacant or derelict. either vacant or derelict. However, some of the sites identified as unknown (77 employment sites

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 99 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 9.3.4 Area and Floorspace Analysis • In addition there are a significant number (10) of The area and floorspace analysis has focused on the small employment clusters with areas of between distribution of net cluster and site areas across 0 and 2ha. While these clusters account for 40% Haringey along with the site floorspace distribution. of the Haringey employment clusters they only cover 11% of the Borough employment land Net Cluster Area Distribution (13ha). The results of the Net Cluster Area assessment for Haringey are presented in Table 9.3 while the key Net Site Area Distribution findings are: Table 9.4 provides information on the distribution of net employment sites across Haringey. Key results that • Haringey, unlike Enfield and to a less extent should be taken from this table include: Barnet, contains no very large employment clusters (i.e., clusters that are 15ha or larger) • A good spectrum of employment land sites are • As a result the vast majority of the Haringey found within Haringey from very small (less than 2 2 employment land is located within a group of 15 250m ) through to the very large (55,000m plus) intermediate sized clusters (ranging from 2 to 15ha) which account for 89% of the Haringey employment land (108ha)

Table 9.3 Haringey Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Number of Employment Percentage of Clusters Net Employment Land Percentage Net Employment Land (ha) Clusters (%) (ha) Employment Land (%) 0.0-1.0 2 8.0 1.2 1.0 1.1-2.0 8 32.0 11.6 9.6 2.1-5.0 5 20.0 15.7 13.0 5.1-15.0 10 40.0 92.1 76.3 15.1+ - - - - Total Clusters / Areas 25 100.0 120.6 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 100 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 9.4 Haringey Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area Number of Employment Net Employment Area Percentage Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Employment Area (%) 1-250 168 23.5 24,227 1.9 251-500 145 20.3 52,655 4.2 501-1,000 157 22.0 114,344 9.1 1,001-1,500 79 11.0 93,818 7.5 1,501-3,000 78 10.9 165,417 13.1 3,001-5,000 26 3.6 96,535 7.7 5,001-10,000 39 5.5 275,215 21.9 10,001-20,000 16 2.2 224,226 17.8 20,000+ 7 1.0 221,540 16.8 Total Sites / Areas 715 100.0 1,257,976 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

• Almost two thirds (66%) of the Haringey sites Site Floorspace Distribution identified are small to medium with areas of The site floorspace distribution within Haringey is between 1 and 1,000m2. It should be noted outlined in Table 9.5 with the key findings including: however that these sites cover only 15% of the net Haringey employment site area or just over • Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace 190,000m2 (19ha). was identified within Haringey • The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of • Around 5% of the identified employment sites 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for 26% of sites and have no building currently located on them. Again around 28% of the net Haringey employment site this is likely to include a fair number of vacant or area. This equates to just under 360,000m2 derelict sites. (36ha). • Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size • Finally the top 9% of sites cover just over are locate on approximately 30% of employment 720,000m2 (72ha). This equates to around 57% of sites. In addition around 45% of employment site the net area covered by Haringey employment have small to medium sized buildings in a range of sites. sizes between 251 and 1,500m2.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 101 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 9.5 Haringey Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area Number of Employment Building Floorspace Percentage Available Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Floorspace (%) Zero 36 5.0 - - 1-250 213 29.8 26,501 2.8 251-500 127 17.8 45,673 4.9 501-1,000 130 18.2 93,608 10.0 1,001-1,500 63 8.8 75,147 8.0 1,501-3,000 76 10.6 158,529 16.9 3,001-5,000 27 3.8 100,616 10.7 5,001-10,000 31 4.3 231,325 24.6 10,001-20,000 9 1.3 123,644 13.2 20,000+ 3 0.4 84,074 9.0 Total Sites / Floorspace 715 100.0 939,117 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

• Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of ‘Reasonable’. In addition a smaller proportion of between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 14% buildings within the Borough are identified as ‘Poor’ or of employment sites. While just 6% of employment ‘Very Poor’ than was the case for North London. sites contain large to very large buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 38,000m2. 9.4 Employment Land Demand

9.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues This section reviews the findings of the NLELS A range of information on general site quality and other employment land demand forecast produced for relevant issues was also collected during the Haringey Haringey. The GLA forecast of employment land employment land survey work. The key building age demand is also shown for comparative purposes. and condition information collected is presented in Table 9.6. The key conclusion is that building stock within Haringey are largely identified as either ‘Good’ or

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 102 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 9.6 Haringey Building Age and Condition Age of Buildings Haringey Condition of Percentage Buildings 1900 to 1944 1945 to 1964 1965 to 1984 1985 to 2005 Unknown Total (%) Good 3 8 26 247 2 286 40.0 Reasonable 20 33 98 192 14 357 49.9 Poor 1 7 3 6 2 19 2.7 Very Poor - - - 1 - 1 0.1 Unknown - 5 11 18 18 52 7.3 Total 24 53 138 464 36 715

Percentage (%) 3.3 7.4 19.3 64.9 5.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

The borough level employment forecasts for have forecast -17.7%) and wholesale (NLELS industrial/warehousing uses produced by both the forecasting growth of 13.3%, GLA -0.7%). NLELS and GLA methods are presented in Table 9.7. Overall the forecasts are broadly similar with the The employment land forecasts for Haringey to 2016 greatest difference between the GLA and NLELS seen are presented in Table 9.8 and 9.9 below. in the level of jobs forecast in transport (NLELS forecasting a positive growth of 12.8%, whereas GLA

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 103 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 9.7 Haringey Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016 NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment Base Sector 2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 857 799 -6.8 909 1,030 13.3 Textile (SIC 18-19) 1,994 183 -90.8 2,115 238 -88.7 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 231 162 -29.9 245 210 -14.3 Printing (SIC 22) 846 966 14.2 897 1,238 38.0 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 837 423 -49.5 888 542 -39.0 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 1,670 796 -52.3 1,771 1,022 -42.3 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 60 541 801.7 59 651 1,005.3 Construction (SIC 45) 4,176 2,334 -44.1 3,720 2,127 -42.8 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 1,212 1,213 0.1 1,304 1,147 -12.1 Wholesale (SIC 51) 4,025 4,562 13.3 4,331 4,299 -0.7 Warehousing (SIC 63) 291 377 29.6 239 226 -5.4 Transport (SIC 60-62) 4,617 5,207 12.8 3,790 3,120 -17.7 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 15 6 -60.0 14 4 -75.5 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 128 131 2.3 138 115 -16.6 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 990 1,129 14.0 813 676 -16.8 Total 21,949 18,829 -14.2 21,233 16,645 -21.6 Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003, GLA 2005

Table 9.8 Haringey Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 155 154 152 146 143 149 142 139 129 121 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 191 189 187 180 176 183 175 171 158 148 Mid-range 173 172 170 163 159 166 159 155 143 135 Source: PACEC

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 104 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 9.9 Change in Haringey Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -13 -11 -28 -22 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -15 -13 -35 -26 Mid-range -14 -12 -31 -24 Source: PACEC

9.5 Cluster Appraisals The key outcome of this appraisal has been the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Haringey and North The employment clusters within Haringey have been London clusters, which is presented in Table 9.10. appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2.

Table 9.10 Haringey Cluster Appraisal Results Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Within Barnet Barnet Within North Within London Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total

HA001 – Ashfield Road / 105 71 45 49 27 296 19 65 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 1) Crusader Industrial Estate HA002 – Vale Road / 117 75 41 41 37 311 13 50 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 18) Tewkesbury Road HA003 – Cranford Way 105 83 60 56 37 341 3 13 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 5) HA004 – Wood Green 82 75 56 41 33 288 22 77 Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 21)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 105 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Barnet Within North Within London

HA005 – White Hart Lane 105 100 34 41 43 323 9 34 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 19) HA006 – Queen Street 117 88 38 53 43 338 5 16 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 14) HA007 – Brantwood Road 105 96 49 49 43 342 2 12 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 3) HA008 – Willoughby Lane 105 58 49 53 40 305 17 57 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 20) HA009 / HA010 – North 117 68 45 53 43 345 1 8 North East Tottenham – Strategic Employment Location, East Tottenham / Marsh Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 13) Lane Marsh Lane – Strategic Employment Location, Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 24) HA011 – Millmead / 105 75 53 56 37 325 7 30 Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area (UDP Ashley Road Extensions Schedule 3 Reference: 12) HA012 – Tottenham Hale 93 83 60 64 37 337 6 18 Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 17) HA013 – South Tottenham 105 79 60 60 37 341 4 15 Now split into two areas: South Tottenham – Strategic Employment Location / Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule e Reference: 16) Rangemoor Road / Herbert Road – Strategic Employment Location / Regeneration Area DEA (UDP Schedule e Reference: 25) HA014 – Hale Wharf 82 58 53 53 37 282 23 80 Regeneration Area DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 7) HA015 – High Road West 105 50 56 60 33 305 18 58 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 9) HA016 – High Road West 93 71 60 60 40 342 8 33 Industrial Location DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 9) HA017 – N17 Studios 82 67 60 60 40 308 15 54 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 8) HA018 – High Road East 93 71 60 53 40 317 11 43 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 23)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 106 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Barnet Within North Within London

HA019 – Bounds Green 117 71 41 60 33 322 10 38 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 2) Industrial Estate HA020 – Orion Road 82 75 41 49 33 280 24 81 Employment Locations DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 6) HA021 – Lynx Express 117 71 49 45 33 315 12 46 NO EMPLOYMENT DESIGNATION. Removed from Depot employment policies HA022 – Campsbourne 117 67 30 60 20 293 21 66 Regeneration Area DEA (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 4) HA023 – Seven Sisters 105 71 49 60 23 308 16 55 NO EMPLOYMENT DESIGNATION. Removed from Road employment policies HA024 – Lawrence Road 82 79 49 53 33 295 20 67 NO EMPLOYMENT DESIGNATION. Removed from employment policies HA025 – Lindens / 117 67 38 56 33 310 14 51 Strategic Employment Location / Industrial Location DEA Rosebury Works (UDP Schedule 3 Reference: 11) Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBH (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBH. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not been subsequent changes, the relevant LBH UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 107 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 10 Waltham Forest

10.1 Introduction save for two smaller schemes in the Argall Avenue area. The borough ostensibly caters well for the small Waltham Forest covers an area from Chingford in the business operator since there are potentially a variety north east to Leyton at its southern most point and has of suitable units available in the sub 5,000 sq ft sector a natural boundary to the western side which is ranging from “break up” units round Stafford Road to effectively created by the River Lea navigation and by more modern 1980s stock in locations such as Harrow various reservoirs thereon. To the northern and eastern Road and Hainault Road, Leyton plus a number of boundary are large elements of Epping Forest and to schemes around the Blackhorse Lane area. the western boundaries, contiguous to the River Lea, are areas of marshland. The A406 North Circular Road At the larger end of the industrial scale, there are roughly divides the borough east to west whilst the limited units in excess of 20,000 sq ft which meet improved A12 link road, effectively connecting the A406 modern requirements but this in general reflects the at the Blackwall Tunnel, runs across the southern fact that the internal road infrastructure is not borough boundary. particularly suited to major distribution. Units of 10- 20,000 sq ft approx are in the main situated around A relatively small borough in London terms, the Billet Road and Argall Avenue. population figures estimate a total of some 220,000 with an estimated 100,000 households. Civic facilities A surprisingly large amount of industrial stock remains and town hall are based at Forest Road, Walthamstow from the 1950s/1960s. A clear example of this is Rigg and the famous Walthamstow High Street, with its Approach, Leyton which almost entirely consists of regular weekly market, is situated east west between such buildings. Such units, whilst potentially Hoe Street and St James Street. Alongside the High approaching the end of their useful constructional life, Street sits the borough’s only “shopping centre”, are still popular as they are relatively affordable on a Selbourne Walk which is relatively modern but would freehold basis. be considered small within shopping centre terms. With the exception of the “British Gas” site outlined 10.2 Current Market Context below, there are almost no clear opportunities for developers to purchase substantial portions of land, or 10.2.1 Industrial Market single land holdings to create new industrial products. There has been no major speculative industrial development in Waltham Forest for perhaps ten years,

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 108 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc When considering the clusters identified in the study century buildings to 1950s “north lit” premises, the two clear industrial/warehouse locations become vast majority in multi ownership apparent. 10.2.2 Commercial Market • Billet Road / Blackhorse Lane / North Circular Whilst historically the borough was home to some Road – Blackhorse Lane/Billet Road contains a major employers in the past, it has never been a major mix of industrial and residential, in many instances location for office centres. It would appear that the the two products being situated on opposing sides major occupier of offices would still be the local of the street. Blackhorse Lane in particular was authority and its associated departments. There has originally home to a relatively large number of certainly been no speculative office development in the single unit high employment occupiers that borough on any large scale for probably 15 years and, declined in the early 1980s. To the southern end with demand generally only coming from local of Blackhorse Lane there are a number of high occupiers and those already established in the density multi storey buildings probably constructed borough, we do not foresee this situation changing. at the turn of the century and which are multi occupied. The remainder of Blackhorse Lane is a Aside from those offices which are ancillary to industrial mix of all ages and types but include some users, there are clusters of buildings in locations such popular estates. In Billet Road there is a distinct as Church Road, Leyton, Fulbourne Road, cluster of older buildings, including Billet Works Walthamstow and High Road, Leytonstone. In the main which are high density and multi occupied, further such buildings would be 1960s/1970s construction and along is the more modern 1980s Waltham Park they are generally now multi occupied. In the late 1980s Estate which sits almost directly adjacent to the a small unit two storey office scheme was constructed A406. at Trinity Park, off the North Circular Road at Chingford. • Argall Avenue / Orient Way / Leabridge Road, These were ostensibly “business” units being shell and Leyton – Situated to the southern end of core to the ground floor and offices above. Leabridge Road, and now adjacent to the newly created Orient Way (A1006) is an old established 10.2.3 Housing Market industrial area which incorporates Argall Avenue, The April 2003 draft UDP comments that the borough Rigg Approach and Lammas Road. These areas population is not anticipated to change greatly in the have all benefited from the new Link Road but in next decade, mainly due to the restriction and available addition the Argall Avenue area had access roads land for housing. This assumption highlights the improved during the past five or so years. Whilst general density of the borough. Therefore the ability to there are some relatively new buildings in this transfer brown field sites to residential unit use is area, the vast majority range from turn of the potentially even more urgent. Similar to most boroughs

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 109 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc in North London, there have been no master planned • Strategic Employment Areas (SEAs) which are residential schemes in the borough, and residential industrial or business areas designated as SELs redevelopment tends to be in pockets where existing within the London Plan. residential was perhaps low density or industrial could • Borough Employment Areas (BEAs) which are be transferred. An example of this is in Wood Street, well established industrial and business areas with Walthamstow where a former commercial site is being good and improving access to the transport redeveloped into a small residential scheme. network. These fall outside the above strategic designation 10.3 Employment Land Supply • Local Employment Areas are smaller sites outside the above designations that perform an This review on the existing employment land supply important function within the local economy by within Waltham Forest is largely drawn from our field offering local and diverse employment survey of every identified employment land clusters and opportunities. sites within the Borough (as was the case for Barnet). The results of this review are outlined below and cover Within these designations, policies for industrial and the areas of existing land supply and usage, site area business land encourage the concentration of and floorspace distributions, along with site quality and appropriate uses towards the SEAs and BEAs and other issues. restrict non-business class uses in these areas (INB1). In addition the council will protect Local Employment 10.3.1 Waltham Forest UDP Second Deposit Draft, Areas for employment uses (INB2) but outside of these 2003 areas a change of use from employment will be The objectives of employment policy in Waltham Forest considered subject to certain conditions (INB3) and is to maximise the level and diversity of employment likewise business uses will be permitted outside these opportunities available to residents, maintain and designations subject to conditions (INB7). encourage the widest possible range of economic activities by ensuring adequate provision of land and premises, retain and expand the borough’s business 10.3.2 Amount of Employment Land base, to regenerate / renew the urban area for A total of 34 employment land clusters were identified industrial and business use, and improve the quality of within Waltham Forest with the clusters generally the working environment. spread throughout the borough. In addition a high proportion of employment land clusters were located Employment land in Waltham Forest is designated in within the Lea Valley Corridor in the West of the three categories: Borough. This distribution of clusters is shown on the Waltham Forest A1 Existing Land Use Map. A

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 110 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc summary of the key Waltham Forest employment land • The top three land use categories by site area are cluster information is provided in Table 10.1 with the refuse and recycling, motor vehicle sale and key overall results being: repair, and wholesale, which combined account for 46% of employment land area (54ha) and 51% • A total of 34 employment land clusters were of employment sites (274 sites) identified within Waltham Forest containing 652 • In comparison the bottom three land use individual employment sites categories are wood and paper products, • The gross employment land incorporated in these construction, and public administration. Combined clusters was 143ha which equates to around 3.7% these activities account for just 2ha of employment of the Borough site land area (2%) and 19 employment sites (4%) • Once all the public roads and open space has • Again a small number of sites (6 sites covering an been removed from the data then Waltham Forest area of 1ha) were identified as being multi-use. is left with approximately 135ha of net These sites typically consisted of older multi­ employment land (about 94% of the area surveyed storey buildings with different uses on separate within the Borough) floors. • No construction activity was identified during the It should be noted that a number of Waltham Forest days that the survey work was undertaken cluster originally identified as employment land have • Around 16% of the employment site area actually been developed for other uses over the last (equating to 32 employment sites and 15ha) was couple of years. As a result there is no cluster WA004. either vacant or derelict. This is substantially higher than the previous estimates identified in 10.3.3 Net Employment Land in Industrial / Section 4. Warehousing Use • It is also expected that the proportion of vacant or The existing land uses within Waltham Forest have derelict sites within Waltham Forest is higher than been assessed according to the NLELS Land Use this as some of the sites identified as unknown (71 Definition. This has resulted in the information employment sites and 13ha of employment site presented in Table 10.2 which shows that: land) are also likely to be either vacant or derelict. It was however not possible to confirm this on the • 541 employment land sites were identified within day of the survey. Waltham Forest (83% of the total identified sites) and these cover an area of 115ha (86% of the net employment area).

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 111 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 10.1 Waltham Forest Employment Land Clusters Percentage of Net Gross Employment Net Employment Land Cluster Identifier and Name Number of Sites Borough Employment Land (ha) (ha) Land (%) WA001 / WA016 – The Broadway / Hickman 12 10.3 9.7 7.2 Avenue / Jubilee Avenue WA002 – Billet Works 20 3.1 2.8 2.0 WA003 / WA012 – Stirling Road / Sutherland 37 7.3 6.7 5.0 Road / Blackhorse Lane WA005 – Norlington Road 6 1.0 1.0 0.8 WA006 – Dunedin Road 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 WA007 – Leyton Business Centre 23 2.1 2.1 1.6 WA008 – Warley Close 8 0.9 0.9 0.7 WA009 – Ruckhold Road 22 2.8 2.7 2.0 WA010 – The Sidings 15 1.4 1.4 1.1 WA011 – Alpha Business Centre 14 1.7 1.5 1.1 WA013 – Walthamstow Business Centre 33 2.6 2.3 1.7 WA014 – Waltham Park Way 14 2.9 2.4 1.8 WA015 – Avenue Industrial Estate / Trinity 22 3.1 3.1 2.3 Park WA017 – Estate Way 17 5.4 5.4 4.0 WA018 – New Spitalfields Market 112 11.6 11.6 8.7 WA019 – Temple Mills Lane 2 2.2 2.2 1.6 WA020 – Depot Osier Way 2 4.8 4.8 3.6 WA021 – Fulbourne Road 3 4.5 4.4 3.3 WA022 – Ravenswood Industrial Estate 15 0.7 0.7 0.5 WA023 – Shaftesbury Road 5 0.2 0.2 0.2 WA024 – 81 Lennox Road 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 WA026 – Joseph Ray Road 5 1.7 1.7 1.3 WA027 – Acacia Business Centre 11 0.4 0.4 0.3 WA028 – Works on North Circular 1 4.9 4.9 3.7

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 112 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Percentage of Net Gross Employment Net Employment Land Cluster Identifier and Name Number of Sites Borough Employment Land (ha) (ha) Land (%) WA029 / WA036 – British Gas Site 2 6.5 6.5 4.9 WA030 – Fairways Business Park 33 1.8 1.8 1.3 WA031 – Rigg Approach 15 5.1 4.6 3.4 WA032 – Argall Avenue Industrial Area 127 27.5 24.6 18.3 WA033 – Blackhorse Lane Industrial Area 59 21.6 19.3 14.4 WA034 – Cabinet Way 10 2.2 2.0 1.5 WA035 – Chingford Industrial Estate 5 1.9 1.7 1.3 Total 652 143.3 134.6 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005) Note: Clusters WA004 have been deleted as they have no employment land (i.e. they have already been converted to either housing or offices)

Table 10.2 Existing Waltham Forest Employment Land Use (NLELS Land Use Definition) Percentage of Net Number of Percentage of Sites Net Employment Land Use Employment Land Employment Sites (%) Land (ha) (%) Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 16 3.0 6.8 5.9 Textile (SIC 18-19) 14 2.6 1.3 1.1 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 6 1.1 0.9 0.8 Printing (SIC 22) 32 5.9 5.2 4.6 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 13 2.4 2.0 1.8 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 17 3.1 2.3 2.0 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 5 0.9 7.2 6.2 Construction (SIC 45) 12 2.2 0.7 0.6 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 55 10.2 8.8 7.6 Wholesale (SIC 51) 214 39.6 37.5 32.6 Warehousing (SIC 63) 24 4.4 4.3 3.7 Transport (SIC 62) 10 1.8 2.9 2.5 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 1 0.2 2.5 2.2

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 113 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71.1 to 71.3) 8 1.5 1.9 1.6 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 4 0.7 1.2 1.0 Public Administration (SIC 75) 1 0.2 0.3 0.2 Multi Use 6 1.1 1.4 1.2 Under Construction - - - - Vacant or Derelict 32 5.9 14.9 12.9 Unknown 71 13.1 13.0 11.3 Total 541 100.0 115.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

10.3.4 Area and Floorspace Analysis • The majority of the Waltham Forest clusters are The area and floorspace analysis has focused on the however of intermediate size (ranging from 2 to distribution of net cluster and site areas across 15ha) and these account for 56% of the Waltham Waltham Forest along with the site floorspace Forest employment land (75ha) distribution. Net Site Area Distribution Net Cluster Area Distribution Table 10.4 provides information on the distribution of The results of the Net Cluster Area assessment for net employment sites across Waltham Forest. Key Waltham Forest are presented in Table 10.3 with the results that should be taken from this table include: key findings are: • A good spectrum of employment land site are • Just under a third of the Waltham Forest found within Waltham Forest from very small (less employment land is located within 2 very large than 250m2) through to the very large (49,000m2 employment clusters, each of which is 15.1ha or plus) larger • Over half (58%) of the Waltham Forest sites • At the other extreme Waltham Forest also has a identified are small to medium with areas of number of employment clusters (14 clusters) that between 1 and 1,000m2. It should be noted are small with areas of between 0 and 2ha. These however that these sites cover only 13% of the net clusters account for 41% of the Waltham Forest Waltham Forest employment site area or just over employment clusters but only 12% of the Waltham 170,000m2 (17ha). Forest employment land (16ha).

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 114 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 10.3 Waltham Forest Cluster Area Distributions Net Cluster Number of Employment Percentage of Clusters Net Employment Area Percentage Employment Area (ha) Clusters (%) (ha) Employment Area (%) 0.0-1.0 7 20.6 4.3 3.2 1.1-2.0 7 20.6 11.5 8.6 2.1-5.0 15 44.1 52.6 39.1 5.1-15.0 3 8.8 22.3 16.6 15.1+ 2 5.9 43.9 32.6 Total Clusters / Areas 34 100.0 134.6 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Table 10.4 Waltham Forest Net Site Area Distributions Net Employment Area Number of Employment Net Employment Area Percentage Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Employment Area (%) 1-250 103 15.8 16,213 1.2 251-500 117 17.9 43,880 3.3 501-1,000 160 24.5 113,733 8.5 1,001-1,500 64 9.8 78,548 5.8 1,501-3,000 120 18.4 251,357 18.7 3,001-5,000 27 4.1 96,337 7.2 5,001-10,000 42 6.4 299,820 22.3 10,001-20,000 11 1.7 155,193 11.5 20,000+ 8 1.2 289,716 21.5 Total Sites / Areas 652 100.0 1,344,798 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 115 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • The intermediate sized sites (with net site areas of • Just over 0.9 million m2 of employment floorspace 1,001 to 5,000m2) account for both 32% of sites was identified within Waltham Forest and the net Waltham Forest employment site • Around 2% of the identified employment sites area. This equates to just over 425,000m2 (43ha). have no building currently located on them. Again • Finally the top 9% of sites cover just under this is likely to include a fair number of vacant or 750,000m2 (74ha). This equates to around 55% of derelict sites. the net area covered by all Waltham Forest • Small buildings of between 1 and 250m2 in size employment sites. are located on approximately 31% of employment sites. In addition around 47% of employment sites Site Floorspace Distribution have small to medium sized buildings in a range of The site floorspace distribution within Waltham Forest sizes between 251 and 1,500m2. is presented in Table 10.5. Key findings include:

Table 10.5 Waltham Forest Site Floorspace Distributions Site Floorspace Area Number of Employment Building Floorspace Percentage Available Percentage of Sites (%) (m2) Sites (m2) Floorspace (%) Zero 15 2.3 - - 1-250 200 30.7 29,062 3.1 251-500 127 19.5 45,479 4.9 501-1,000 114 17.5 80,602 8.7 1,001-1,500 63 9.7 78,026 8.4 1,501-3,000 68 10.4 143,652 15.5 3,001-5,000 24 3.7 91,139 9.8 5,001-10,000 27 4.1 180,374 19.4 10,001-20,000 10 1.5 143,012 15.4 20,000+ 4 0.6 136,749 14.7 Total Sites / Floorspace 652 100.0 928,097 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 116 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc • Medium to large buildings, with floorspace of 10.4 Employment Land Demand between 1,501 and 5,000m2, are located on 14% of employment sites. While just over 6% of This section reviews the findings of the NLELS employment sites contain large to very large employment land demand forecast produced for 2 buildings with sizes from 5,001 to 44,000m . Waltham Forest. The GLA forecast of employment land demand is also shown for comparative purposes. 10.3.5 Site Quality and Other Issues The key building age and condition information The borough level industrial/warehousing demand collected is presented within Table 10.6. The forecasts produced by both the NLELS and GLA conclusion is that the building stock within Waltham methods are presented in Table 10.7. Overall the Forest is largely identified as either ‘Good’ or employment forecasts are very similar. The greatest ‘Reasonable’. In addition a smaller proportion of difference between the GLA and NLELS forecasts is in buildings within the Borough are identified as ‘Poor’ or number of jobs in the construction sector for 2016 – the ‘Very Poor’ that was the case for North London. GLA forecast a large drop of 55.4% whereas NLELS forecast 6.4% (approximately 1,800 jobs difference).

Table 10.6 Waltham Forest Building Age and Condition Age of Buildings Waltham Forest Condition of Percentage Buildings 1900 to 1944 1945 to 1964 1965 to 1984 1985 to 2005 Unknown Total (%) Good - - 3 400 4 407 62.4 Reasonable 2 - 59 122 4 187 28.7 Poor - - 29 10 - 39 6.0 Very Poor - - 5 2 - 7 1.1 Unknown - - - - 12 12 1.8 Total 2 - 96 534 20 652

Percentage (%) 0.3 - 14.7 81.9 3.1 100.0 Source: Halcrow (April 2005)

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 117 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 10.7 Waltham Forest Industrial and Warehousing Employment Forecasts, 2001-2016 NLELS Employment Base GLA Employment Base Sector 2001 2016 % Change 2001 2016 % Change Food and Tobacco (SIC 15-17) 893 833 -6.7 1,001 812 -18.9 Textile (SIC 18-19) 566 59 -89.6 634 60 -90.5 Wood and Paper Products (SIC 20-21) 415 87 -79.0 465 86 -81.5 Printing (SIC 22) 1,409 1,462 3.8 1,579 1,418 -10.2 Chemicals, Plastics and Non-Metallic Products (SIC 23-26) 595 376 -36.8 667 370 -44.5 Metals, Machinery and Equipment (SIC 27-36) 2,815 1,102 -60.9 3,155 1,077 -65.9 Refuse and Recycling (SIC 37 and 90) 287 521 81.5 351 695 97.7 Construction (SIC 45) 4,530 4,242 -6.4 5,449 2,429 -55.4 Motor Vehicle Sale and Repair (SIC 50) 1,361 1,058 -22.3 1,394 1,359 -2.5 Wholesale (SIC 51) 4,254 2,446 -42.5 4,358 3,136 -28.0 Warehousing (SIC 63) 232 652 181.0 240 521 117.3 Transport (SIC 60-62) 1,875 1,237 -34.0 1,936 988 -49.0 Utilities (SIC 40-41) 174 - -100.0 154 - -100.0 Renting of Machinery and Equipment (SIC 71) 358 292 -18.4 397 318 -19.7 Post and Communications (SIC 64) 703 546 -22.3 726 436 -39.9 Total 20,467 14,913 -27.1 22,506 13,705 -39.1 Source: PACEC, ABI 2003, ODPM 2003, GLA 2005

The employment densities and plot ratios discussed in Waltham Forest to 2016 are presented in Table 10.8 Section 5 have been used to convert jobs to floorspace and 10.9 below. and then a plot ratio to convert floorspace to Net Employment Land. The employment land forecasts for

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 118 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 10.8 Waltham Forest Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 2001 2005 2006 2011 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities 139 115 113 104 100 151 122 118 106 94 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities 170 141 138 127 122 185 149 145 130 115 Mid-range 155 128 126 116 111 168 135 131 118 105 Source: PACEC

Table 10.9 Change in Waltham Forest Net Employment Land Demand (2001-2016) NLELS Employment Base (ha) GLA Employment Base (ha) Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Land Demand Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Forecast 2001 to 2016 Forecast 2005 to 2016 Core Plot Ratio – High Employment Densities -39 -15 -57 -27 Core Plot Ratio – Low Employment Densities -48 -19 -69 -33 Mid-range -43 -17 -63 -30 Source: PACEC

10.5 Cluster Appraisals the ranking of each cluster, compared to other Waltham Forest and North London clusters, which is presented The employment clusters within Waltham Forest have in Table 10.10 below. been appraised according to the criteria set out in Section 2. The key outcome of this appraisal has been

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 119 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Table 10.10 Waltham Forest Cluster Appraisal Results Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Barnet Within North Within London

WA001 / WA016 – The 117 83 56 45 40 341 19 63 WA001 – Mixed Use Regeneration Area Broadway / Hickman WA016 – Borough Employment Area Avenue / Jubilee Avenue WA002 – Billet Works 105 58 30 34 43 270 31 88 Borough Employment Area WA003 / WA012 – Stirling 82 79 41 53 33 288 26 75 WA003 – Mixed Use Regeneration Area Road / Sutherland Road / EA012 – Borough Employment Area Blackhorse Lane WA005 – Norlington Road 93 63 56 53 27 291 24 71 Mixed Use Regeneration Area WA006 – Dunedin Road 93 88 68 60 23 332 5 23 Borough Employment Area WA007 – Leyton Business 117 63 34 30 40 283 28 78 Borough Employment Area Centre WA008 – Warley Close 105 63 45 53 33 298 20 64 Borough Employment Area WA009 – Ruckholt Road 82 92 41 41 37 293 22 69 Borough Employment Area WA010 – The Sidings 93 88 56 53 27 316 12 45 Borough Employment Area WA011 – Alpha Business 93 75 68 56 30 322 10 39 Borough Employment Area Centre WA013 – Walthamstow 117 79 53 53 38 338 3 17 Borough Employment Area Business Centre WA014 – Waltham Park 117 79 45 45 37 323 9 36 Borough Employment Area Way WA015 – Avenue 93 83 34 45 37 292 7 28 Borough Employment Area Industrial Estate / Trinity Park WA017 – Estate Way 117 71 45 30 43 306 16 56 Borough Employment Area

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 120 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Barnet Within North Within London

WA018 – New Spitalfields 117 100 49 45 50 360 1 1 Borough Employment Area Market WA019 – Temple Mills 105 67 41 56 43 313 15 49 Borough Employment Area Lane WA020 – Depot Osier 117 67 56 56 40 336 4 20 Borough Employment Area Way WA021 – Fulbourne Road 70 75 53 56 37 290 25 73 Borough Employment Area and Mixed Use Regeneration Area WA022 – Ravenswood 105 58 45 53 27 288 27 76 Local Employment Area Industrial Estate WA023 – Shaftesbury 105 67 45 49 27 292 23 70 Local Employment Area Road WA024 – 81 Lennox Road 117 67 34 38 23 278 30 83 Local Employment Area WA026 – Joseph Ray 93 67 71 53 30 314 13 47 Local Employment Area Road WA027 – Acacia Business 93 79 71 60 27 330 6 24 Local Employment Area Centre WA028 – Works on North 117 68 41 53 43 341 2 14 Strategic Employment Area Circular WA029 / WA036 – British 105 79 45 41 47 317 11 42 Strategic Employment Area Gas Site WA030 – Fairways 82 71 41 53 37 283 29 79 Strategic Employment Area Business Park WA031 – Rigg Approach 105 71 41 45 37 299 18 62 Strategic Employment Area

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 121 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Assessment Score Ranking

Cluster Number and 1 UDP Designation Comments Name Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Total Barnet Within North Within London

WA032 – Argall Avenue 93 88 38 41 37 296 21 66 Strategic Employment Area Industrial Area WA033 – Blackhorse Lane 93 83 45 49 33 304 17 60 Strategic Employment Area Industrial Area WA034 – Cabinet Way 117 71 41 56 40 325 8 31 Strategic Employment Area WA035 – Chingford 128 50 45 56 33 313 14 48 Strategic Employment Area Industrial Estate Sources: Halcrow (Assessment scores and ranking), LBWF (UDP Designation Comments) Note: 1. These are the UDP designations / information supplied by LBWF. For further information on these designations, and confirmation that there have not been subsequent changes, the relevant LBWF UDP / Local Development Framework documents should be consulted.

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 122 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc References

1. Atkins (2004), Haringey Employment Study, Nov. 2004, LBH 2. Bowyer Bryce and King Sturge (2000), Study of Industrial Demand in the Upper Lea Valley, Final Report, London, The Upper Lea Valley Partnership 3. EDAW, LBB and GLA (2004), Cricklewood, Brent Cross and West Hendon Regeneration Area Development Framework, Supplementary Planning Guidance, London, LBB and GLA 4. GLA (2003), Industrial Capacity, The London Plan Draft Supplementary Planning Guidance, London, Mayor of London 5. GLA (2004), The London Plan, Spatial Development Strategy for Greater London, London, Mayor of London 6. GLA (2005a), Current Issues Note 4: Interim borough level employment projections to 2016, London, Mayor of London 7. GLA (2005b), North London Draft Sub-Regional Development Framework (Working Draft - March 2005) 8. Halcrow and PACEC (2004), Employment & Housing Implications of the Second Runway at Stansted Airport, Government Office for the East of England and East of England Development Agency 9. JMP Consultants (2004), North London Transport Study, Final Report, London North London Transport Forum 10. LBE (1994), Enfield Unitary Development Plan, Adopted March 1994, London, LBE 11. LBE (1997), Enfield Unitary Development Plan, Interim Amendments Public Consultation Draft, London, LBE 12. LBH (1998), Haringey Unitary Development Plan, Adopted March 1998, London, LBH 13. LBH (2003a), Myddleton Road Neighbourhood Plan, London, LBH 14. LBH (2003b), Tottenham International Development Framework, Consultation Draft, London, LBH 15. LBH (2003c), Haringey Heartlands Development Framework, Consultation Draft, London, LBH 16. LBH (2004a), Former Petrol Station Site, 308 West Green Road, London N15, Planning Brief, London, LBH 17. LBH (2004b), Haringey Heartlands Draft Development Framework, Schedule of the GLA Family Comments, LBH Responses and Changes, London, LBH 18. LBH (2004c), Haringey Unitary Development Plan, Revised Deposit Consultation Draft, September 2004, London, LBH 19. LBH (2004d), Wards Corner / Seven Sisters Underground Development Brief, London, LBH 20. LBWF (2003), Waltham Forest Unitary Development Plan, First Review Consultation Draft, April 2003, London, LBWF 21. LBWF (2004a) Waltham Forest Regeneration and Investment Strategy, London, LBWF 22. LBWF (2004b), Walthamstow Town Centre, Business Plan 2004-2010, London, LBWF 23. Locum Destination Consulting (2004), North London Product Review: North London Strategic Alliance, August 2004 24. ODPM (2004), Employment Land Reviews: Guidance Note, London, ODPM 25. ONS (2002), UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2003, London, ONS 26. PACEC and LBH (2004), Haringey City Growth Strategy, London, Small Business Service and LBH

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 123 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc 27. RTP, King Sturge and C2G Consulting (2004), Industrial and Warehousing Land Demand in London, London, Mayor of London 28. URS (2003a), Leaside Arc, Business Survey and Planning Policy Review, Final Report, London, LBTH and LDA 29. URS (2003b), Barking & Dagenham and Havering Industrial Business Survey, Final Report, London, LBBD 30. URS (2004), Lower Lea Business Survey, Final Report, London, LDA 31. LDA (2005), The London Economic Development Strategy, London, Mayor of London

Doc No CBPABC Rev: G Date: May 2006 124 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Appendix A Cluster Assessment Matrix

Doc No CBPABC Rev: E Date: March 2006 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Cluster Assessment Criteria and Impact Matrix

Assessment Impact Levels Criteria 1 – Strongly 5 – Strongly 2 – Negative 3 – Neutral 4 – Positive Negatives Positive

Group 1 – Strategic Issues

• Proportion of The majority of the Over a third of the cluster More than a tenth of the Some of the cluster sites There are no vacant or vacant / derelict cluster sites are identified sites are identified as cluster sites are identified are identified as vacant or derelict sites identified sites as vacant or derelict vacant or derelict as vacant or derelict derelict within the cluster

• Strategic mix and The LA has a very weak The LA has a weak The LA has a neutral The LA has a strong The LA has a very strong distribution of policy of ensuring a policy of ensuring a policy of ensuring a policy of ensuring a policy of ensuring a sites strategic mix and strategic mix and strategic mix and strategic mix and strategic mix and distribution of distribution of distribution of distribution of distribution of employment clusters employment clusters employment clusters employment clusters employment clusters

• Strategic A significant amount of Some work has been No work has been Some work has been A significant amount of reallocation of work has been undertaken by the LA or undertaken by the LA or undertaken by the LA or work has been site usage undertaken by the LA or other Government other Government other Government undertaken by the LA or other Government stakeholders on the stakeholders on the stakeholders on the other Government stakeholders on the redevelopment of the redevelopment or renewal of the cluster for stakeholders on the redevelopment of the cluster for an alternative renewal of the cluster the retention of renewal of the cluster for cluster for an alternative use employment uses the retention of use employment uses

Group 2 – Physical Arrangement, Access and Quality

• Overall cluster Net cluster area is less Net cluster area is Net cluster area is Net cluster area is Net cluster area is greater area and than 0.5ha between 0.5 and 2ha between 2 and 5ha between 5 and 10ha than 10ha floorspace

• Age and quality of The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster buildings buildings are of very poor buildings are of poor buildings are of buildings are of good buildings are of very good quality and age quality and age reasonable quality and quality and age quality and age age

Doc No CBPABC Rev: E Date: March 2006 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Impact Levels Criteria 1 – Strongly 5 – Strongly 2 – Negative 3 – Neutral 4 – Positive Negatives Positive • Quality of public The existing public realm The existing public realm The existing public realm The existing public realm The existing public realm realm within the cluster is of within the cluster is of within the cluster is of within the cluster is of within the cluster is of very poor quality poor quality reasonable quality good quality very good quality

• Provision of The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster The existing cluster drainage, lighting drainage, lighting and drainage, lighting and drainage, lighting and drainage, lighting and drainage, lighting and and security security are of very poor security are of poor security are of reasonable security are of good security are of very good quality quality quality quality quality

• Quality of parking There is very limited There is limited cluster There is reasonable There is a good amount There is very good and internal cluster parking and very parking and poor internal cluster parking and of cluster parking and amount of cluster parking circulation poor internal circulation circulation reasonable internal good internal circulation and very good internal circulation circulation • Operation of The cluster employment The cluster employment The potential for The cluster employment The cluster employment potentially operations are very likely operations are likely to contaminative uses is operations are unlikely to operation are very contaminative to include contaminative include contaminative unknown within the include contaminative unlikely to include uses uses used cluster employment uses contaminative uses operations

Group 3 – Transport Access and Supporting Infrastructure

• Connections to The cluster has very poor The cluster has poor The cluster has The cluster has good The cluster is very good highway network connections to the connections to the reasonable connections connections to the connections to the highway network highway network to the highway network highway network highway network

• General public The cluster has a very The cluster has a low The cluster has mid range The cluster has a high The cluster has a very transport low PTAL PTAL PTAL PTAL high PTAL accessibility

• Distance to local The cluster is at least a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is generally railway station 25min walk to the nearest 20min walk to the nearest 15min walk to the nearest 10min walk to the nearest within a 5min walk to the railway station railway station railway station railway station nearest railway station

Doc No CBPABC Rev: E Date: March 2006 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Impact Levels Criteria 1 – Strongly 5 – Strongly 2 – Negative 3 – Neutral 4 – Positive Negatives Positive • Distance to local The cluster is at least a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is about a The cluster is generally shops and 25min walk to the nearest 20min walk to the nearest 15min walk to the nearest 10min walk to the nearest within a 5min walk to the services shops and services shops and services shops and services shops and services nearest shops and services

Group 4 – Buffer Areas and Sensitive Receptors

• Distance to The cluster is immediately The cluster is adjacent to The cluster is near but not The cluster is near some The cluster is not close to residential adjacent to and largely residential receptors on adjacent to residential residential receptors and any residential receptors receptors surrounded by residential some sides receptors but there is only there is significant receptors limited buffering buffering

• Distance to The cluster is immediately The cluster is adjacent to The cluster is near but not The cluster is near some The cluster is not close to natural receptors adjacent to and largely natural receptors on adjacent to natural natural receptors and any natural receptors surrounded by natural some sides receptors but there is only there is significant receptors limited buffering buffering

• Distance to The cluster is immediately The cluster is adjacent to The cluster is near but not The cluster is near some The cluster is not close to surface water adjacent to and largely surface water receptors adjacent to surface water surface water receptors any surface water receptors surrounded by surface on some sides receptors but there is only and there is significant receptors water receptors limited buffering buffering

• Interaction / There is significant The are some negative The are no negative or There a positive There are significant conflicts between negative interactions interactions between the positive interactions interactions between the positive interactions cluster and between the cluster and cluster and its surround between the cluster and cluster and its between the cluster and surrounding uses its surrounding uses uses its surrounding uses surrounding uses its surrounding uses

Doc No CBPABC Rev: E Date: March 2006 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Assessment Impact Levels Criteria 1 – Strongly 5 – Strongly 2 – Negative 3 – Neutral 4 – Positive Negatives Positive

Group 5 – Policy Considerations

• Linkages with The continued The continued The continued The continued The continued existing employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the regeneration cluster has a very low cluster has a low potential cluster will have not cluster has a high cluster has a very high policies, potential to enhance to enhance existing local impact on the potential of potential to enhance potential to enhance programmes and existing local regeneration policies, local regeneration existing local existing local projects regeneration policies, programmes and projects policies, programmes and regeneration policies, regeneration policies, programmes and projects projects programmes and projects programmes and projects

• Current local The cluster is located in The cluster is located in The cluster is located in The cluster is located in The cluster is located in employment an area of very low social an area of low social and an area or intermediate an area of high social and an area of very high issues and and economic deprivation economic deprivation social and economic economic deprivation social and economic deprivation levels deprivation deprivation

• Potential to assist The continued The continued The continued The continued The continued in the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the employment use of the achievement of cluster has a very low cluster has a low potential cluster has a reasonable cluster has a high cluster has a very high economic potential of achieve of achieve economic potential of achieve potential of achieve potential of achieve development economic development development targets economic development economic development economic development targets targets targets targets targets

Doc No CBPABC Rev: E Date: March 2006 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc Appendix B Cluster Appraisals

Doc No CBPABC Rev: E Date: March 2006 File: 06 05 16 Final NLELS Report.doc North London Employment Land Study Halcrow Appendix B - Final Report 05/05/2006

Group 3 - Transport Access and Supporting Group 4 - Buffer Areas and Sensitive Group 1 - Strategic Issues Group 2 - Physical arrangement, access and quality Group 5 - Policy Consideration Infrastructure Receptors c ility

Cluster Borough Cluster Name Identifier Total Score Assessment Ranking (within Borough) Assessment Ranking (within North London) Number of Sites Net Employment Area (ha) Proportion of vacant / derelict sites Strategic mix and distribution of sites Strategic reallocation of site usage Total Weighting Score Overall cluster area and floorspace Age and quality of buildings realm public of Quality Provision of drainage, lighting and security Quality of parking and internal circulation Operation of potentially contaminative uses Total Weighting Score Connections to highway network General public transport accessib Distance to local railway station Distance to local shops and services Total Weighting Score Distance to residential receptors Distance to natural receptors Distance to surface water receptors Use of buffers between sources and receptors Total Weighting Score Linkages with existing regeneration policies, prgrammes and projects Currently local employment issues and deprivation levels Potential to assist in the achievement of economi development targets Total Weighting Score Barnet BA001 Barnet Trading Estate 20 1.9 1 2 2 1.7 35 58.3 2 1 2 1 2 3 1.8 25 45.8 1 3 3 4 2.8 15 41.3 1 1 3 1 1.5 15 22.5 1 3 1 1.7 10 16.7 184.6 16 94 Barnet BA002 Falkland Road Industrial 10 0.6 3 2 3 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 1 3 2 4 2.5 15 37.5 1 3 3 1 2.0 15 30.0 1 1 1 1.0 10 10.0 237.5 12 90 Estate Barnet BA003 Bittacy Business Centre 14 4.8 4 2 4 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 3 3 5 4 3.8 15 56.3 3 1 3 1 2.0 15 30.0 1 3 3 2.3 10 23.3 317.9 4 41 Barnet BA004 / Brent Terrace / Finchley 37 18.6 2 2 1 1.7 35 58.3 5 2 2 3 2 2 2.7 25 66.7 5 3 3 5 4.0 15 60.0 4 4 4 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 274.6 9 85 BA005 / Industrial Estate BA012 Barnet BA006 Brunswick Industrial Park 12 3.6 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 5 3 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 327.5 2 26 Barnet BA009 / Collindale Primary 22 2.6 2 2 3 2.3 35 81.7 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 3 5 4 4.3 15 63.8 1 1 1 1 1.0 15 15.0 1 3 3 2.3 10 23.3 254.6 11 89 BA010 / Employment Area BA011 Barnet BA013 Edgware Forum Side 11 1.3 1 2 1 1.3 35 46.7 2 2 1 2 1 2 1.7 25 41.7 3 5 5 4 4.3 15 63.8 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 1 4 1 2.0 10 20.0 232.1 14 92 Barnet BA014 Finchley Industrial Estate 8 0.9 2 2 3 2.3 35 81.7 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 3 1 2 2.0 10 20.0 279.2 7 82 Barnet BA015 Garrick Industrial Estate 17 5.5 4 2 4 3.3 35 116.7 4 4 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 3 3 5 3 3.5 15 52.5 2 3 1 4 2.5 15 37.5 3 3 3 3.0 10 30.0 332.5 1 22 Barnet BA017 The Hyde Industrial Estate 20 0.7 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 3 3 3 4 3.3 15 48.8 2 2 2 4 2.5 15 37.5 3 3 3 3.0 10 30.0 308.8 5 53 Barnet BA018 Lancaster Road Industrial 14 1.3 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 4 4 4 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 1 3 4 4 3.0 15 45.0 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 2 1 3 2.0 10 20.0 290.8 6 72 Estate Barnet BA019 Mill Hill Industrial Estate 13 1.7 3 2 3 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2.7 25 66.7 3 3 3 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 2 4 4 3.0 15 45.0 4 2 3 3.0 10 30.0 276.3 8 84 Barnet BA020 Northern Telecoms Works 4 8.5 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 4 4 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 5 1 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 4 3 3.0 10 30.0 324.6 3 32 Barnet BA021 Pricklers Hill 11 0.5 3 2 3 2.7 35 93.3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1.7 25 41.7 5 3 1 4 3.3 15 48.8 1 3 4 2 2.5 15 37.5 1 1 1 1.0 10 10.0 231.3 15 93 Barnet BA022 Queens Road Industrial 12 0.9 4 2 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 3 3 3 4 3 3.0 25 75.0 1 1 1 1 1.0 15 15.0 1 1 3 1 1.5 15 22.5 2 1 2 1.7 10 16.7 234.2 13 91 Estate Barnet BA023 Oakleigh Road South 3 2.1 2 2 3 2.3 35 81.7 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 3 3 3 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 2 4 4 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 272.1 10 86 Enfield EN001 Chase Side Works 7 0.9 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2.2 25 54.2 1 3 3 3 2.5 15 37.5 1 4 4 1 2.5 15 37.5 2 1 1 1.3 10 13.3 270.8 23 87 Enfield EN003 Regents Avenue 9 1.8 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 4 4 3 4 3.8 15 56.3 1 4 1 1 1.8 15 26.3 1 3 3 2.3 10 23.3 289.2 22 74 Enfield EN004 Oakthorpe Dairy 1 3.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 4 2 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 1 1 1 1 1.0 15 15.0 3 3 3 3.0 10 30.0 302.5 21 61 Enfield EN005 New Southgate Industrial 16 1.7 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 4 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 3 4 1 1 2.3 15 33.8 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 322.1 16 37 Estate Enfield EN006 Redburn Trading Estate 30 3.8 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 4 3 4 1 3.0 15 45.0 4 2 1 2 2.3 15 33.8 5 4 3 4.0 10 40.0 327.1 13 27 Enfield EN007 Queensway 33 3.4 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 3 2 2 2 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 2 3 4 4 3.3 15 48.8 3 4 4 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 309.6 19 52 Enfield EN008 Lea Valley Trading Estate 61 17.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 4 1 3 3.0 15 45.0 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 357.9 1 2 Enfield EN009 / Meridian Way Land / Glover 7 23.2 2 4 4 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 2 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 5 5 4.7 10 46.7 344.2 7 9 EN014 / Drive / Kimberly Road EN026 Enfield EN010 Montagu Industrial Estate / 62 13.8 3 4 4 3.7 35 128.3 5 3 3 3 3 2 3.2 25 79.2 5 2 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 3 3 3 1 2.5 15 37.5 3 5 5 4.3 10 43.3 337.1 10 19 Kenninghall Estate / Railtrack Land Enfield EN011 Claverings Industrial Estate / 33 2.7 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 3 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 4 4 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 316.3 18 44 Dominion Business Park / Horizon Business Centre

Enfield EN012 Langhedge Lane Industrial 7 0.7 4 4 2 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 3 3 3 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 4 4 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 303.8 20 59 Estate Enfield EN013 Commercial Road and North 56 9.2 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 4 3 3 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 3 2 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 2 3 4 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 322.9 15 35 Middlesex Estate Enfield EN015 Eley's Estate 77 24.5 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 2 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 2 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 4 3 3.8 15 56.3 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 344.2 8 10 Enfield EN016 Innova Park 11 35.7 2 4 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 3 2 3.0 15 45.0 3 3 4 4 3.5 15 52.5 5 3 3 3.7 10 36.7 327.5 12 25 Enfield EN017 Hertford Road / Mollison 2 10.9 2 4 3 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 5 3 4 3 3.8 15 56.3 2 4 4 3 3.3 15 48.8 5 3 3 3.7 10 36.7 342.5 9 11 Avenue Enfield EN018 Meridian Business Park 17 18.9 2 4 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 2 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 4 3 4.0 10 40.0 317.9 17 40 Enfield EN019 Aztec 406 Development Site 6 19.3 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 353.8 3 4

Enfield EN020 Brimsdown Industrial Area 243 115.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 4 3 4.0 10 40.0 357.1 2 3 Enfield EN021 Great Cambridge Industrial 26 11 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 3 3 3.3 10 33.3 334.6 11 21 Estate Enfield EN022 Great Cambridge Road 15 7 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 4 3 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 4 3 3 3.3 10 33.3 345.8 4 5 (Martinbridge Trading Estate)

Enfield EN023 Great Cambridge Road 9 7.1 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 4 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 2 4 4 2 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 345.8 5 6 Enfield EN024 Great Cambridge Road 59 23.4 3 4 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 4 3 4 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 345.8 6 7 Enfield EN025 Alma Industrial Estate 20 4.6 4 4 3 3.7 35 128.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 2 3 3 2.5 15 37.5 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 326.3 14 29 Haringey HA001 Ashfield Road / Crusader 18 2.5 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 3 3 3 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 1 3.3 15 48.8 3 4 1 2.7 10 26.7 296.3 19 65 Industrial Estate

File: 06 05 05 Appendix B - Cluster Appraisals.xls Sheet: North London Page 1 of 3 North London Employment Land Study Halcrow Appendix B - Final Report 05/05/2006

Group 3 - Transport Access and Supporting Group 4 - Buffer Areas and Sensitive Group 1 - Strategic Issues Group 2 - Physical arrangement, access and quality Group 5 - Policy Consideration Infrastructure Receptors c ility

Cluster Borough Cluster Name Identifier Number of Sites Total Score Assessment Ranking (within Borough) Assessment Ranking (within North London) Net Employment Area (ha) Proportion of vacant / derelict sites Strategic mix and distribution of sites Strategic reallocation of site usage Total Weighting Score Overall cluster area and floorspace Age and quality of buildings realm public of Quality Provision of drainage, lighting and security Quality of parking and internal circulation Operation of potentially contaminative uses Total Weighting Score Connections to highway network General public transport accessib Distance to local railway station Distance to local shops and services Total Weighting Score Distance to residential receptors Distance to natural receptors Distance to surface water receptors Use of buffers between sources and receptors Total Weighting Score Linkages with existing regeneration policies, prgrammes and projects Currently local employment issues and deprivation levels Potential to assist in the achievement of economi development targets Total Weighting Score Haringey HA002 Vale Road / Tewkesbury 37 6.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 4 3 3 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 3 2 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 2 5 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 3 4 4 3.7 10 36.7 310.8 13 50 Road Haringey HA003 Cranford Way 17 7.2 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 4 3 3 3 4 3 3.3 25 83.3 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 4 3.7 10 36.7 341.3 3 13 Haringey HA004 Wood Green 37 9.1 4 2 1 2.3 35 81.7 4 3 3 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 5 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 287.5 22 77 Haringey HA005 White Hart Lane 10 8 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4.0 25 100.0 2 3 2 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 3 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 323.3 9 34 Haringey HA006 Queen Street 20 1.6 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 2 2 3 3 2.5 15 37.5 3 4 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 337.5 5 16 Haringey HA007 Brantwood Road 60 14.9 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 4 4 4 3 3.8 25 95.8 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 5 1 3.3 15 48.8 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 341.7 2 12 Haringey HA008 Willoughby Lane 36 1.1 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 3 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 4 3 4 2 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 304.6 17 57 Haringey HA009 / North East Tottenham / 68 16.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 3 4 3 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 4 3 4 1 3.0 15 45.0 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 345.0 1 8 HA010 Marsh Lane Haringey HA011 Millmead / Ashley Road 84 11.8 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 2 3 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 2 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 325.4 7 30 Extensions Haringey HA012 Tottenham Hale 15 5.2 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 4 3 3 3 4 3 3.3 25 83.3 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 5 4 5 3 4.3 15 63.8 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 337.1 6 18 Haringey HA013 South Tottenham 111 10.3 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 5 3 3 3 2 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 3 5 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 340.8 4 15 Haringey HA014 Hale Wharf 12 1.7 3 3 1 2.3 35 81.7 2 2 2 3 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 4 4 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 1 3 3.5 15 52.5 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 281.7 23 80 Haringey HA015 High Road West 26 1.4 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.0 25 50.0 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 3 5 2 3.3 10 33.3 304.6 18 58 Haringey HA016 High Road West 1 1 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 324.2 8 33 Haringey HA017 N17 Studios 8 1.6 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 308.3 15 54 Haringey HA018 High Road East 51 3.2 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 4 4 4 4.0 15 60.0 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 316.7 11 43 Haringey HA019 Bounds Green Industrial 43 4.1 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 3 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 5 4 3 4.0 15 60.0 3 3 4 3.3 10 33.3 322.1 10 38 Estate Haringey HA020 Orion Road 1 5.6 1 3 3 2.3 35 81.7 4 2 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 4 3 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 3 3 4 3.3 10 33.3 280.0 24 81 Haringey HA021 Lynx Express Depot 1 1.9 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 3 4 3.3 10 33.3 314.6 12 46 Haringey HA022 Campsbourne 1 0.2 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 1 3 3 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 2 2 2 2 2.0 15 30.0 4 5 5 2 4.0 15 60.0 2 3 1 2.0 10 20.0 293.3 21 68 Haringey HA023 Seven Sisters Road 17 1.1 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 4 5 4 3 4.0 15 60.0 1 5 1 2.3 10 23.3 307.9 16 55 Haringey HA024 Lawrence Road 22 3.1 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 3 3 3 3 4 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 3 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 3 5 2 3.3 10 33.3 295.4 20 67 Haringey HA025 Lindens / Rosebury Works 19 1.3 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 3 3 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 1 3.3 10 33.3 310.4 14 51 Waltham WA001 / The Broadway / Hickman 12 9.7 3 2 2 2.3 35 81.7 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 2 3 5 5 3.8 15 56.3 2 2 5 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 4 3.7 10 36.7 298.8 19 63 Forest WA016 Avenue / Jubilee Avenue Waltham WA002 Billet Works 20 2.8 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 3 2 2 2 2 3 2.3 25 58.3 5 1 1 1 2.0 15 30.0 2 2 2 3 2.3 15 33.8 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 270.4 31 88 Forest Waltham WA003 / Stirling Road / Sutherland 37 6.7 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 2 3 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 287.9 26 75 Forest WA012 Road / Blackhorse Lane Waltham WA005 Norlington Road 6 1 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.5 25 62.5 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 291.3 24 71 Forest Waltham WA006 Dunedin Road 1 0.8 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 5 4 4 4.5 15 67.5 3 5 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 1 5 1 2.3 10 23.3 331.7 5 23 Forest Waltham WA007 Leyton Business Centre 23 2.1 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 2 2 3 2 3 2.5 25 62.5 3 2 2 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 2 2 2 2.0 15 30.0 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 282.9 28 78 Forest Waltham WA008 Warley Close 8 0.9 3 3 3 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.5 25 62.5 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 4 2 3.3 10 33.3 298.3 20 64 Forest Waltham WA009 Ruckholt Road 22 2.7 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 3 4 4 4 4 3 3.7 25 91.7 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 2 5 2 2.8 15 41.3 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 292.5 22 69 Forest Waltham WA010 The Sidings 15 1.4 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 25 87.5 3 4 4 4 3.8 15 56.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 316.3 12 45 Forest Waltham WA011 Alpha Business Centre 14 1.5 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 4 3 4 2 3 3.0 25 75.0 5 3 5 5 4.5 15 67.5 5 2 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 3 4 2 3.0 10 30.0 322.1 10 39 Forest Waltham WA013 Walthamstow Business 33 2.3 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 3 4 2 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 337.5 3 17 Forest Centre Waltham WA014 Waltham Park Way 14 2.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 3 3 4 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 3 1 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 2 5 3 3.0 15 45.0 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 322.5 9 36 Forest Waltham WA015 Avenue Industrial Estate / 22 3.1 2 4 4 3.3 35 116.7 4 4 4 4 3 3 3.7 25 91.7 4 2 1 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 2 5 3 3.0 15 45.0 4 4 4 4.0 10 40.0 327.1 7 28 Forest Trinity Park Waltham WA017 Estate Way 17 5.4 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 4 2 2 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 2 2 2 2.0 15 30.0 4 5 4 4.3 10 43.3 305.8 16 56 Forest Waltham WA018 New Spitalfields Market 112 11.6 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 5 4 4 4 4 3 4.0 25 100.0 5 2 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 5 5 5 5.0 10 50.0 360.4 1 1 Forest Waltham WA019 Temple Mills Lane 2 2.2 2 3 4 3.0 35 105.0 3 2 2 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 312.5 15 49 Forest Waltham WA020 Depot Osier Way 2 4.8 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 2 2 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 4 3 3 3.8 15 56.3 5 2 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 335.8 4 20 Forest Waltham WA021 Fulbourne Road 3 4.4 1 3 2 2.0 35 70.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.0 25 75.0 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 4 3 3.7 10 36.7 290.4 25 73 Forest

File: 06 05 05 Appendix B - Cluster Appraisals.xls Sheet: North London Page 2 of 3 North London Employment Land Study Halcrow Appendix B - Final Report 05/05/2006

Group 3 - Transport Access and Supporting Group 4 - Buffer Areas and Sensitive Group 1 - Strategic Issues Group 2 - Physical arrangement, access and quality Group 5 - Policy Consideration Infrastructure Receptors c ility

Cluster Borough Cluster Name Identifier Number of Sites Total Score Assessment Ranking (within Borough) Assessment Ranking (within North London) Net Employment Area (ha) Proportion of vacant / derelict sites Strategic mix and distribution of sites Strategic reallocation of site usage Total Weighting Score Overall cluster area and floorspace Age and quality of buildings realm public of Quality Provision of drainage, lighting and security Quality of parking and internal circulation Operation of potentially contaminative uses Total Weighting Score Connections to highway network General public transport accessib Distance to local railway station Distance to local shops and services Total Weighting Score Distance to residential receptors Distance to natural receptors Distance to surface water receptors Use of buffers between sources and receptors Total Weighting Score Linkages with existing regeneration policies, prgrammes and projects Currently local employment issues and deprivation levels Potential to assist in the achievement of economi development targets Total Weighting Score Waltham WA022 Ravenswood Industrial Estate 15 0.7 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 2 2 2 3 3 2 2.3 25 58.3 3 3 3 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 4 2 2.7 10 26.7 287.5 27 76 Forest Waltham WA023 Shaftesbury Road 5 0.2 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 1 3 3 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 1 3.3 15 48.8 2 5 1 2.7 10 26.7 292.1 23 70 Forest Waltham WA024 81 Lennox Road 1 0.2 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 1 3 3 3 3 3 2.7 25 66.7 2 3 2 2 2.3 15 33.8 2 2 5 1 2.5 15 37.5 2 4 1 2.3 10 23.3 277.9 30 83 Forest Waltham WA026 Joseph Ray Road 5 1.7 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2.7 25 66.7 5 4 5 5 4.8 15 71.3 2 5 5 2 3.5 15 52.5 2 5 2 3.0 10 30.0 313.8 13 47 Forest Waltham WA027 Acacia Business Centre 11 0.4 4 3 1 2.7 35 93.3 1 4 4 4 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 4 5 5 5 4.8 15 71.3 3 5 5 3 4.0 15 60.0 2 5 1 2.7 10 26.7 330.4 6 24 Forest Waltham WA028 Works on North Circular 1 4.9 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 3 4 4 4 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 3 3 3 3.5 15 52.5 5 5 3 4.3 10 43.3 341.3 2 14 Forest Waltham WA029 / British Gas Site 2 6.5 1 3 5 3.0 35 105.0 4 3 3 3 3 3 3.2 25 79.2 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 2 2 5 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 5 4 4.7 10 46.7 317.1 11 42 Forest WA036 Waltham WA030 Fairways Business Park 33 1.8 2 3 2 2.3 35 81.7 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 4 3 3.5 15 52.5 4 5 2 3.7 10 36.7 282.9 29 79 Forest Waltham WA031 Rigg Approach 15 4.6 4 3 2 3.0 35 105.0 3 2 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 298.8 18 62 Forest Waltham WA032 Argall Avenue Industrial Area 127 24.6 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3.5 25 87.5 5 1 2 2 2.5 15 37.5 3 2 3 3 2.8 15 41.3 3 5 3 3.7 10 36.7 296.3 21 66 Forest Waltham WA033 Blackhorse Lane Industrial 59 19.3 3 3 2 2.7 35 93.3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3.3 25 83.3 5 3 2 2 3.0 15 45.0 3 4 3 3 3.3 15 48.8 3 4 3 3.3 10 33.3 303.8 17 60 Forest Area Waltham WA034 Cabinet Way 10 2 4 3 3 3.3 35 116.7 2 3 3 3 3 3 2.8 25 70.8 5 2 2 2 2.8 15 41.3 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 5 3 4.0 10 40.0 325.0 8 31 Forest Waltham WA035 Chingford Industrial Estate 5 1.7 4 3 4 3.7 35 128.3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.0 25 50.0 5 2 2 3 3.0 15 45.0 2 5 5 3 3.8 15 56.3 4 4 2 3.3 10 33.3 312.9 14 48 Forest

File: 06 05 05 Appendix B - Cluster Appraisals.xls Sheet: North London Page 3 of 3