UMBRELLA REVOLUTION

DEMOCRACY QUEST: A protester holds umbrellas aloft as tear gas swirls in . /TYRONE SIU

China lacks the powers it employs on the mainland in its showdown with pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. For now, it is allowing the Umbrella Revolution to rumble on. In Hong Kong upheaval, China confronts the limits of its power

BY DAVID LAGUE, JAMES POMFRET AND GREG TORODE

SPECIAL REPORT 1 UMBRELLA REVOLUTION IN HONG KONG, CHINA CONFRONTS LIMITS OF POWER

E-CANDLES: Protesters brandish their mobile phones on a main street outside government headquarters. REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA

HONG HONG, OCTOBER 2, 2014 including sweeping powers of arrest, an inopportune time for Xi. He is trying indefinite detention, compliant courts and to steer a slowing economy while moving n the heart of , the most a controlled media. against powerful vested interests in one densely populated district on earth, While People’s Liberation Army forces of the most wide-ranging anti-corruption anI abandoned Hong Kong police are stationed in Hong Kong, they have campaigns since the Communists came to van is enveloped in the student-led remained in their barracks. They will only power in 1949. demonstrations paralysing swathes of the be deployed on the streets if rioting and “It is a frontal challenge to their city. Along with yellow ribbons and flowers, looting break out and the local police are authority,” Regina Ip, a lawmaker and a top symbols of the city’s pro-democracy unable to contain the violence, said two advisor to Hong Kong’s embattled political movement, protesters have taped a hand- people with ties to the central government leader, chief executive Leung Chun- written placard in Chinese and English leadership. “The mobilization of PLA ying, says of the protests. “People have to to the side of the locked and undamaged troops in Hong Kong is a last resort and understand how sees this.... China vehicle. “We can’t accept the Hong Kong only if things got totally out of control,” one feels threatened,” Ip told Reuters. police becoming the Gong An,” it reads, a of the people said. At the forefront of this challenge is reference to China’s feared Public Security student leader Joshua Chi-fung, a BIGGEST CHALLENGE Bureau that enjoys virtually unfettered skinny 17-year-old with a mop of straight powers on the mainland. As tens of thousands of protesters gather black hair framing his angular face. Last The stranded police vehicle and the for a sixth day, their demand for the right Friday, after a week-long student boycott protesters’ warning encapsulate the to choose their leaders in fully democratic of classes, Wong was demonstrating with dilemma that the mass protests pose for elections poses the biggest popular challenge hundreds of secondary school students China’s rulers and the authorities in Hong to the ruling Communist Party since outside the Hong Kong government’s Kong. They need to contain the campaign Chinese president Xi Jinping took power harbour-front offices. It was 10 p.m. and for democracy in one of Asia’s leading two years ago. The Umbrella Revolution, some of the students were beginning financial hubs without the tools employed dubbed for the protesters’ use of umbrellas to drift off when Wong picked up the on the mainland to suppress dissent, to shield against pepper spray, comes at microphone. “Please everybody, don’t go

SPECIAL REPORT 2 UMBRELLA REVOLUTION IN HONG KONG, CHINA CONFRONTS LIMITS OF POWER

NATIONAL DAY: Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying is joined by mainland and city officials to celebrate the 65th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. REUTERS/BOBBY YIP/KIN CHEUNG

just yet,” he pleaded in his crisp, staccato been detained for so long. In the two days will be an unnerving reminder for Xi and through the shrill feedback of Wong and his fellow student leaders were other top party leaders of the Tiananmen the speaker. “Please give me some face and held without charge, tens of thousands Square demonstrations 25 years ago. That listen before leaving,” he joked. “Ok!” the of protesters had converged on the isn’t lost on the students. On Sogo Corner students yelled back. government offices and three other Hong in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong’s neon-lit As Wong spoke, fellow student leaders Kong districts. About an hour before Justice equivalent of ’s Times Square, and , followed Li ordered Wong’s release, riot police had protesters have put up posters that carry the by their colleagues, suddenly rushed the fired volleys of tear gas in a bid to break words “Don’t repeat June 4.” three-metre fence and gate protecting the up the demonstrations, the first time in UMBRELLA MAN government offices shouting: “Charge, decades that this riot control measure had charge.” Police arrested Wong immediately been used against Hong Kong protesters. Already, an image from the Hong Kong and took Chow and Shum into custody the Flanked by his lawyers, Wong pushed protests that draws a parallel with the next day. But legal limits on the power of his right hand forward waist-high and iconic “tank man” photograph from the the authorities soon frustrated their efforts flashed a defiant thumbs up as he walked Tiananmen demonstrations has gone viral to take the student leaders out of circulation. free. His detention had provided the spark on social media. The image is drawn from In the on Sunday evening, that galvanized the city’s pro-democracy a photograph of a protester holding two Justice Patrick Li Hon-leung ordered movement and kick-started Occupy umbrellas aloft as he is enveloped in a cloud Wong’s immediate release, granting a Central, a long-mooted plan to lock down of tear gas. writ of habeas corpus, one of the British- the commercial heart of China’s most The greatest fear for China’s leaders is implemented protections that Hong Kong important financial centre. that unrest could spread from Hong Kong inherited from its former colonial master. While leaders in Hong Kong consult with to the mainland. While Chinese online Wong would have no such protection on Beijing on how best to defuse the protests, censors have barred most discussion of the mainland where an equivalent right the student-dominated demonstrations the protests, during the first few days they doesn’t exist and where protest leaders are failed to block searches for the Chinese often beaten and routinely detained for The mobilization of PLA expression for “umbrella revolution”. By long periods without trial. troops in Hong Kong is a last Wednesday, they had caught up and the Wong’s lawyer, Michael Vidler, says resort and only if things got totally term had also been barred. For its part, Justice Li told the court in an aside to the state-run media mostly limited its his judgement that events might have out of control. coverage of events in Hong Kong to official taken a different course if Wong had not A source with ties to China’s leaders Text continues on page 6

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Hong Kong protests Thousands of pro-democracy protesters thronged the streets of Hong Kong, ratcheting up pressure on the pro-Beijing government that has called the action illegal and vowed to press ahead with National Day celebrations.

Protest areas

Nathan Ro t Stree rgyle n A

R

ad Mong Kok

KOWLOON

Kowloon Park Tsim Sha Tsui

Canton Rd. 500 m 500 yd

Victoria Harbour Golden Hong Kong Bauhinia City Hall Tamar Square Park Mandarin Hotel Causeway Bay Sogo r Rd. Glouceste HSBC d. ssy R Building Henne Central Leighton Rd. Admiralty Government Station Offices Queensway Source: Reuters C. Inton, 01/10/2014

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condemnations of the protests. But there are signs that news of the demonstrations has penetrated the mainland firewall. Chinese Human Rights Defenders, a coalition of mainland and international human rights groups, said on Wednesday that dozens of mainland activists had been detained or intimidated for expressing support for Hong Kong’s protests. In Macau, the gambling hub that neighbours Hong Kong and where the mainland exerts more influence, several hundred protesters gathered in a central square Wednesday evening in support of the protests. Hong Kong has an independent judiciary and its citizens enjoy wide-ranging liberties, including freedom of speech and assembly, which is denied on LEADING THE CHARGE: , a leader of the student protests, addresses pro-democracy the mainland. protesters blocking the main street to Hong Kong’s financial Central district.REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA There are no easy choices for Xi or Leung, China’s handpicked man in Hong Kong. If they order a harsh crackdown, The student-dominated Teams of volunteers pick up rubbish and it could destroy Hong Kong’s reputation demonstrations will be an litter, even sorting it for recycling. Supplies as a stable financial center, jeopardize unnerving reminder for Xi of food and water are organized in neat investment in China and spark capital and other top party leaders stockpiles along the edges of the main outflows from the mainland just at a time of the Tiananmen Square traffic arteries in the center of Hong Kong. when the Chinese economy is slowing demonstrations 25 years ago. And the demonstrators, who are blocking markedly. China is aiming for economic key roads, obediently part for ambulances growth of about 7.5 per cent this year but and emergency vehicles. a run of underwhelming data including There is also no guarantee that greater Protest leaders constantly remind the sagging industrial output and falling force will end the protests. So far, the crowds that they must be peaceful and property prices suggests expansion may fall use of pepper spray and tear gas has only orderly. On Wednesday morning when short of that target. emboldened protesters. It has also won a small group of anti-Occupy Central A heavy-handed response could also them greater sympathy from residents protesters arrived in Admiralty district, fatally undermine the ‘one country two of the city who view these police tactics pro-democracy demonstrators linked systems’ formula by which Hong Kong as excessive. Trucks from sympathetic hands protectively around them to ensure has been ruled since the 1997 handover businesses have delivered food and bottled there was no chance of a clash. and which China’s leaders have hoped water to the protest areas. After the use of tear gas and pepper spray would one day be extended to . only succeeded in stoking the protests, police DISCIPLINED CROWDS Already there have been protests in beat a tactical retreat, distancing themselves in solidarity with the Hong Kong students. The demonstrators have also adopted tactics from the main centres of protest. The hope “One country, two systems has also been that make it difficult for the authorities to crack is that the demonstrators will tire and melt touted for Taiwan,” says Ken Kuo, a Taiwan down. Despite the humidity, thunderstorms, away, said a senior police officer in Hong exchange student living in Hong Kong crowding and limited facilities, they have Kong. In what appears to be part of this who joined the protests in the Admiralty been highly disciplined, avoiding violence and plan, pro-mainland groups that routinely district where crowds have been largest. confrontation after the early attempt by the mount noisy counter demonstrations to “But, as you can see, today’s Hong Kong small group of students to force their way into pro-democracy marches have been largely will be tomorrow’s Taiwan if it is adopted.” government headquarters. Text continues on page 6

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Hong Kong’s fight for democracy A look at public opinion polls conducted by the University of Hong Kong since the territory’s handover to China in 1997.

1997, July 2003, July 2007, December 2014, June Hong Kong is Half a million Beijing says it will China’s cabinet issues policy handed back to people spill onto allow the people of document which affirms that Chinese Hong Kong’s streets Hong Kong to while the voting public in Hong authorities a—er to protest against directly elect their Kong can elect the next leader 150 years of proposed own leader in 2017, in 2017, only candidates British control. anti-subversion and their legislators acceptable to Beijing could be law. by 2020. put on the ballot.

Do you have 100% confidence in Hong Kong's future? 75

Confident Not Confident 50

25

0 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

On the whole, do 100% you trust the Beijing Central Government?

Very trustful Quite trustful Half-half 50 Don’t know Quite distrustful Very distrustful

0 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Source: University of Hong Kong, Public Opinion Programme. Sample size range: 500 to 1,100. Latest poll: Sept. 4-11, 2014. Margin of error: +/-3 % points. C. Inton, 29/09/2014

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unseen on the streets. who might be unhappy over his corruption the showdown in Hong Kong to a game of But if the standoff becomes protracted crackdown or economic policies, he said. chicken. “They (Beijing) have lines that no and Xi is seen to be lacking in resolve in “They are on the same page largely,” one can cross and it makes them incredibly quelling the protests, that could work Li said of the leadership. “But if some effective in negotiations,” the diplomat said. against him. He and his supporters have dramatic events start to happen, they might “Two cars speed toward one another. Beijing’s launched a sweeping corruption crackdown start to have a different view.” strategy is to throw away the steering wheel across the mainland, partly designed to take Xi will not back down on his decision so the other party has to swerve away first. down a dangerous rival, retired senior leader that only a handful of Beijing-vetted It’s like that with full democracy.” Zhou Yongkang who used to head China’s candidates can stand for the next elections Pro-democracy forces are also standing pervasive security apparatus. The ongoing for Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017, firm. Even if the protests unwind, the Hong purge of Zhou and his sprawling network says lawmaker Regina Ip. “In their eyes, the Kong and mainland authorities will still of relatives, political allies and business Hong Kong chief executive is more powerful face the fundamental question posed by the supporters has convulsed leadership politics than a provincial Chinese leader,” says Ip, demonstrators: Why can’t educated, moderate in Beijing. A misstep from Xi that leads to who held talks in Beijing last month with and law-abiding Chinese people choose ongoing instability in Hong Kong could Zhang Dejiang, China’s third ranked leader their own leaders? As the swelling protests provide ammunition for his rivals. and top official responsible for Hong Kong. indicate, Xi has yet to provide an answer that For now, China’s leaders are united in “From their perspective, it is unthinkable would satisfy protesters in Hong Kong or for their attitude toward Hong Kong, said that a future leader of Hong Kong is not that matter Taiwan’s voters who have grown Cheng Li, a senior fellow at the Brookings patriotic or that Hong Kong was allowed to accustomed to changing their government at Institution in Washington. If the become a base for subversion.” the ballot box. confrontation escalates, Xi could become One China-based western diplomat who Much of the pressure now falls on vulnerable to attack from other leaders spoke on condition of anonymity likened Leung. He must find a way to end the Censorship on Weibo A social media analysis by the University of Hong Kong has indicated a spike in the number of censored posts on Weibo, the Chinese microblogging site, since the protests began in Hong Kong last weekend.

NUMBER OF WEIBO POSTS CENSORED PER 10,000 Sep. 28, ’14 Occupy Central begins

Jul. 1, ’14 Aug. 31, ’14 Protest on NPCSC decision Mar. 2, ’14 Protestors march to anniversary limiting free elections 150 condemn attack on of handover in Hong Kong former Hong Kong Jun. 4, ’14 newspaper editor Candlelight vigil to mark 25 years a er 100 Tiananmen Square

50

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Note: Analysis takes selected sample of popular Weibo users and compares their posts between time points Sources: Weiboscope; Reuters

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PROTEST FATIGUE: Police take a rest during the mass protests outside government headquarters in Hong Kong. REUTERS/CARLOS BARRIA

protests that will satisfy Beijing without better to have universal suffrage than not.” draws a huge crowd to the harbour front. completely alienating the residents of Leung will also be wary of the power of He and other dignitaries also had to travel Hong Kong. Hong Kong protesters when they take to the by boat to the ceremony because the roads The leadership in Beijing appears to streets in big numbers. A 500,000-strong were blocked by the protests. have shifted the onus to him. “The central protest on July 1, 2003 stunned the Hong If the plan to outlast the protesters government did not pressure Hong Kong to Kong government and eventually forced doesn’t work, it’s not clear whether the disperse the protesters,” said another source Beijing’s hand-picked leader, Tung Chee- authorities have an alternative. “From here, with ties to the leadership in Beijing. “The hwa to step down. It marked the first time I really don’t know what they are planning Hong Kong government was proactive since the founding of the People’s Republic to do next,” said the senior police officer, because it did not want to be perceived by of China that the Communist Party was referring to the city’s leaders. the central government to be weak.” forced to back down in the face of popular A person close to Leung who spoke on pressure and jettison a senior leader. Additional reporting by Benjamin Kang Lim, condition of anonymity said Beijing was Leung and Tung stood side-by-side Charlie Zhu, Donny Kwok, Venus Wu and being “very hands off ” in what he described in Hong Kong at the National Day Farah Master; Editing by Peter Hirschberg as a “critical” moment for the current flag-raising ceremony, which marks the administration in Hong Kong. He also said anniversary of the founding of the PRC on that Leung has “never” considered acceding October 1, 1949. The protest leaders didn’t to the protesters’ demand that he resign. disrupt the event but as Leung, his top FOR MORE INFORMATION officials and dignitaries watched the raising David Lague UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE of the Chinese national flag, shouts and [email protected] In his National Day speech on Wednesday, chants from the protesters in Admiralty James Pomfret Leung seemed to suggest that giving all the district, a block behind them, could be [email protected] city’s five million eligible voters the right to clearly heard. Greg Torode cast a ballot for candidates that were vetted In an embarrassing blow to Leung, [email protected] by Beijing was better than no elections at all. the protesters did force the Hong Kong Peter Hirschberg, Asia Investigative Editor “It is understandable that different people authorities to cancel the traditional [email protected] may have different ideas about a desirable fireworks display, a center piece of the Michael Williams, Global Enterprise Editor reform package,” he said. “But it is definitely National Day celebrations which normally [email protected]

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