6/26/2019

Hurricane Risk & Decision Making Big Change in Disaster Supply Kits

Daniel Noah Pick up supplies slowly each time you go to the store Warning Coordination Meteorologist Start now! – Tampa Bay [email protected]

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Hurricane Strikes 1950-2017

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Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin 2019 Hurricane Season Forecast

We are here

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It’s Just a CAT 1 1935 CAT 5 Labor Day Hurricane 3 Days Before

Focus on IMPACTS, not Category of Hurricane

Labor Day 40 mph

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1969 CAT 5 Hurricane Camille 3 Days Before Landfall 1992 CAT 5 3 Days Before Landfall

Labor Day (1935) Labor Day 40 mph 40 mph Andrew 50 mph

Camille Camille 65 mph 65 mph

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2018 CAT 5 3 Days Before Landfall Local Integrated Warning Teams

All tropical ! All rapidly strengthened!!

Labor Day 40 mph Andrew 50 mph Michael 50 mph Camille 65 mph

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The Need for Decision Support Services (DSS) All NWS Meteorologists Will Have EM Training

127 hours of training in Emergency Management including: Emergency Management has complex ● IS-201 Forms & Incident Action Plan and ever-changing decisions to make ● ICS-300 Intermediate ICS for Expanding Incidents that require a higher level of service ● IS-775 EOC Management & Operations from your National Weather Service to ensure public safety and the effective Task Books include Job Shadowing a trained meteorologist in use of resources an Emergency Operations Center

NWS Decision Support for 2017 DSS Offered by Your Local NWS Office

• Briefings started Aug 30 to Sep 7 • Greatest Florida impact from Sep 9-11 • Briefings ended Sep 11 to Oct 7 (FEMA and extended river flooding) • 110 tropical webinars • 145 Email briefings • 172 phone briefings • 42 damage surveys

Who Evacuates Public Risk Perception is Based on Previous Experience • “My house is elevated, I thought we would be just fine” • “It’s never flooded here before” • “They always turn” • “I thought these floods come once in a 100 years” • “It’s just a tropical ” • “I live a hundred miles from the coast, I didn’t expect this” • “This didn’t happen last time” • “I didn’t know it would be this bad, I’ll never stay again” • “This wasn’t that bad, I’ll never leave again” • “It was nothing when I looked a few days ago” (anchoring) study by Jennifer Marlon, Yale University

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Water Continues to Kill

When you close your eyes, what do you 2016 Fatalities 2017 Fatalities* 2018 Fatalities

Other see when you think of a hurricane? Other Other

Water Related Water Related Water Related 9 out of 10 U.S. fatalities are due to 83% Water Related 91% Water Related 69% Water Related water 96% Inland Flooding – Only 4% Related

*excludes Maria due to uncertainty related to causes of direct deaths

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2016-2018 Water Continues to Kill Flooding from Heavy Rain is Dangerous 2016 2012 Tropical Storm Debby During the past three seasons, North Carolina Pinellas County more than half the U.S. tropical 2016-18 U.S. Tropical Cyclone Water Related Fatalities cyclone water-related fatalities were vehicle related!

Other Vehicle J. Cavanaugh A. Ahrens Related

A. Von Eschen

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Review of the Hurricane Forecast Cone What Does the Cone Mean?

The cone is where the center of the Hurricane is likely to be

2016 Cone

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2004 : Perception is Reality When Will Tropical Storm Force Winds (39+ mph) Arrive?

Current Time is 4 PM Sunday afternoon Oct 7

Yellow Forecast landfall Dots Actual Wednesday afternoon Position Oct 10

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Time of Arrival Graphics & Wind Speed Probabilities Time of Arrival Graphics & Wind Speed Probabilities

The earliest that tropical The most likely time of storm force winds will reach tropical storm force winds in Panama city is 7 PM Tuesday Panama city is 6 AM Wednesday with a 70-80% Panama Best for those with low Panama City tolerance for risk. 1-in-10 City chance of 39+ mph sustained winds chance.

90% of time T.S. winds arrive There is a 1-in-2 chance of T.S. winds at 6 AM Wed later than 7 PM

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What Actually Happened? 2018 Hurricane Michael Wind Field

Tropical Storm winds reached Panama City at 1 AM CAT 3, 115+ MPH winds Wednesday, Oct 10 went all the way into southwest Georgia Forecast from Sunday • Earliest T.S. winds at 7 PM Tue • Most likely winds at 6 AM Wed

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2018 Hurricane Michael Wind 2018 Hurricane Michael Wind

Trees snapped in half in large The damage is not just from sections of forest wind, but is from the weight of the water in the wind moving at that wind speed

Sustained winds don’t cause as much damage as gusty wind which pounds on structures

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Hurricane Michael Power Outages Hurricane Michael Power Outages

2 Days After 14 Days After

290,000 in FL 32,000 in FL

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Storm Surge Threat by State Visualizing a 10% Chance

This spider is inside one of ten boxes. Pick a box and stick your hand in it. Number of people impacted by surge by category of hurricane

1 2 3 4

5 6

7 8 9 10 Image Source: Wikimedia

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Same 10% Chance, Different Impacts/Actions Why Communicate Surge Risk With Probabilities?

10% Chance of 9+ Feet of Forecasters do not know what the exact Storm Surge will wash your track or the size of the wall will be at 10% Chance of Rain home off the foundation landfall, especially days ahead of impact

2017 Hurricane Irma A small chance of a high impact event is a big deal

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Forecast Probabilities Example of Probabilities

Margin Latest Margin Reasonable of Danger Forecast of Safety Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario 5 ft Surge Reasonable Reasonable Most Likely 12 ft Surge Worst Case Best Case Scenario Scenario Scenario 90% 50% 10% 90% 50% 10% % exceedance % exceedance

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100s of Surge Forecasts Varying Size, Intensity, & Speed Why Not Display the 1-in-2 Forecast Instead of 1-in-10?

8 ft 14 ft

1-in-2 Surge Forecast 1-in-10 Surge was 1-3 feet Forecast Tracks used to create the 4 ft 20 ft was >9 feet Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for Michael

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Same Track, Surge in Two Different Sized Storms Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map if Michael West FL

What happened in 2018 Hurricane Stronger, Smaller Does not show what is expected (50% Florence Storm chance), this map shows a reasonable worst case scenario (10% chance)

10% of the time the surge will be higher than what is shown 90% of the time the surge will be lower

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2018 Major Hurricane Michael Storm Surge Mexico Beach, FL on 10/10/2018

• CAT 5 with 160 mph wind • Surge, tide, and waves reached 19 feet at Mexico Beach • At least 59 people killed in the United States • 4th strongest CAT 5 winds to strike the United States

Instagram.com/talarico.tessa

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Water is Heavy, Moving Water can be Deadly Every Red Dot on Map is a Home Washed Off Foundation

3 ft 1 cubic yard of water weighs 1,700 pounds!

3 ft 3 ft USGS

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On the Ground in Mexico Beach Mexico Beach Storm Surge Debris

Chris Evans Citrus County Emergency Management

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Storm Surge Created a New Pass Hurricane Michael Wind and Waves

Mexico Beach Cape San Blas, FL NOAA detecting navigation hazards following Hurricane Michael

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Similar Storm Surges, Different Impacts Our Barrier Islands are no Different

Fort Myers Beach

St Pete Beach St Armands Circle

Cedar Key

Google Maps

Credit: Mark Sudduth

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2017 Hurricane Irma Rain and Flooding

Flooding from heavy rain is the second leading cause of fatalities in a tropical cyclone

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Major Flooding on the Alafia River after Hurricane Irma Flooding Rain and Slow Responding River

Mark Fulkerson, SWFWMD

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Irma’s Withlacoochee River Forecast 10 Days After Irma Flooded Roads May Keep Employees Away From Work

Cedley Road near Trilby in Pasco County

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Flooding Rain and Fast Responding Rivers Flooding Rain vs Ground Moisture

2004 Saturated soil moisture = 31 ft Rain 13” in 12 hours 6-10” rain The Alafia River Normal soil moisture = 25 ft Southeast of near Tampa is a fast responding No soil moisture = 21 ft Tampa river Flood stage Major Flood Stage (Alafia River) reached in 8 hrs, max stage 18 hrs

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Where to Find Local Hurricane Impact & Forecast

weather.gov/tampa (or Mobile, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Melbourne, Miami, Key)

Where do we get the information we need during hurricanes to make appropriate decisions to ensure public safety and effectively use limited resources?

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Where to Find Local Hurricane Impact & Forecast Wind, Surge, Flooding Rain, Tornado for Where You Click!

Surge values may start out as a 1-in-10 chance but can drop to lower water level as confidence increases (e.g. 5-in-10 chance)

What to Prepare Forecast & From your local NWS For Timing for office where you click

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Surviving the Aftermath of a Hurricane

Most frequent factors in Fatalities After the Storm: The storm has passed me, now I’m safe • Cardiovascular • Electricity • Vehicle accident • Evacuation

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Survive the Aftermath of a Hurricane Survive the Aftermath of a Hurricane

• Displaced wild animals • Snakes, spiders, bears, fire ants Disease Outbreaks • Abandoned domestic animals can • From Contaminated Water – sewage release form into packs and they are scared • From Contaminated or Spoiled Food and hungry • Loss of Power = Improper Refrigeration • Danger Zone between 40F and 140F • Potentially Hazardous Foods in as little as 4 hours

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Surviving the Aftermath of a Hurricane Stress Can Kill

• Physical Stress • Fires & Electrocution • Temperature & Humidity • Downed power lines • Diet Changes • Water intrusion into electrical systems • Unusual Activities • Increased use of generators • Long Hours / Lack of Sleep • Carbon Monoxide Poisoning • Emotional Stress • Improper generator use • Loss & Grief • Running in garage or house • Depression • Underneath open window • Anger • Post Traumatic Stress Disorder

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What Can Your Organization Do? Become and Ambassador for a Weather Ready Nation

Have multiple ways to receive a weather warning

Weather Radio FEMA.gov/app Commercial Apps

AlertFlorida.com

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Who Can Become an Ambassador Examples of Preparedness Materials Simple 2-page http://weather.gov/tampa/wrn Emergency Plan Info Graphics: bulletin boards, newsletter, social media, Email

• ALFs and SNFs • Housing Associations • Churches • Businesses large and small • Non-profit and non-governmental organizations • TV, Radio, and Print media • Academia The Sanctuary at Longboat Key Club • Any organization across all levels Community Assoc., Inc of government

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A Few of the 174 Ambassadors in West Central Florida Evacuations are Called for One of Two Reasons

1. Live in the storm surge zone 2. Live in manufactured home

Hurricane Charley – 2004 Hurricane Charley – 2004 Motorists fleeing Pinellas County on the Punta Gorda area Howard Franklin Bridge

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Evacuations can be a Problem The Five Most Difficult Hurricane Evacuation Areas in U.S. According to Donald Lewis, VP of ATKINS at the 2012 National Hurricane Conference Evacuate 10s of miles, not 100s of miles 5. Southeast Florida 4. New York City / New Jersey Coast 3. Delmarva Peninsula (DE, MD, VA) 2. Tampa Bay Area, FL

1. Southwest Florida Motorists trapped on I-26 as Houston as approached approached in 2004 Charleston, SC in 1999

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2017 Hurricane Irma Caused Largest Florida Evacuation

About 6 million Floridians evacuated

Questions? Comments?

Nexusnewsfeed.com

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